25
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2014 WEEK 1
Featuring
the SDQL
Including: Week 1 NFL selections+!!
NFL Player Trends, SBB’s Spotlight System, Dozens of NFL/NCAA Trends
MTI’s Newsletter Teaser Plays...
Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week
Cleveland +12.5, Denver -1.5
Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Browns are 17-0
ATSp6 as a dog vs a divisional opponent with a non-divisional
opponent next. The Broncos are 15-0 ATSp6 at home vs a
non-divisional opponent before playing at home.
Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week
Chicago +3, Atlanta +12.5, New England +5
Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: When Buffalo is on the
road, their opponent is 23-0 when used in a ten-point teaser.
Atlanta is 23-0 ATSp10 as a home favorite when facing a
divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The
Patriots are 21-0 ATSp10 on the road.
Early Season Success...
S
portsBook Breakers feels the early season offers great value
in the NFL as bookmakers try to settle in on how teams are
going to perform this season and this year is no exception as
there are several great week one plays. Over the last threes
seasons, SBB has gone an 23-13-2 in the first weekend of the
season. SBB now has a 4.-STAR Thursday night Side available
at www.killercappers.com with the rest of its Sunday selections
coming later this week.
Download Bonus Content...
S
ubscribers to the Killersports.com Newsletter have access
to the NFL Bible bonus content now available. Download
today from the Killlersports.com homepage.
In This Issue:
MTi’s Week 1 Selections....................................................... 2
SportsBook Breakers’ Week 1 Selections............................. 3
SBB’s NCAA Trends to Watch................................................ 4
The Power of Two-Team Teasers.......................................... 5
SBB’s NFL Player Trends........................................................ 5
SBB’s Featured Trend........................................................... 6
SportsBook Breakers’ Spotlight System................................ 7
SBB’s Five NFL Trends to Watch in Week 1........................... 7
SBB’s NFL Future Selection................................................... 8
NFL Schedule Chart.............................................................. 9
NFL Trends and Notes....................................................10-11
NFL Handicapping Bible Trends.......................................... 11
NFL Futures on Killercappers.com...
F
S
utures have been one of the most successful bets for both
MTi and SportsBook Breakers the last several years and
they are back again in 2014.
PORTSBOOK BREAKERS NFL has released its 2014 future
picks with two 4.5-STARS and three 4-STAR Selections. SBB
also has five more quick picks or a total of 10 possible plays.
SBB has been crushing futures, going 20-11-1 on futures in
all sports, including 8-4-1 with its NFL Futures the past two
seasons. Get the complete futures package for just $39 in
web debit value (one of those sectoins is included on page 8
of this newsletter.
M
Ti’s 2014 NFL Futures are OUT. The plays include a
4.5-Star futures Play of the Year, two 4-Stars and two
3-Stars. all involve regular season wins. $50 in web debit
value.
MTi’s NFL Selections / Week 1
MTi’s Newsletter Side Play
4-Star Tennessee +5 over KANSAS CITY – The Chiefs are in
for a disappointing season, although they may not know it yet.
They should be looking ahead to their big divisional game in
Denver next week and then they have a tough road game in
Miami in week three. Historically, this has been a terrible spot
for the Chiefs, as they are 0-8 ATS as a home favorite with road
games in each of the next two weeks. The SDQL text is:
team=Chiefs and HF and n:A and nn:A and date>=20061201
Note that the Chiefs have failed to cover by an average of
12.9 ppg in this spot and they are 1-3 straight up since 2011
in this spot.
More important than this however, is a simple, monster
system that we have been milking for years. Since 1994, teams
that have won FEWER than eight games the previous season
are 68-34-1 ATS in week one when they are facing a team that
won more than eight games last season. In 2013, this system
was 6-1 ATS.
The Titans qualify for this strong PLAY-ON system.
Tennessee is, of course, without Chris Johnson for the first
time in a long time. However, he was certainly on the downside of his career and the Titans should be excited to begin the
post-Johnson era with a Jake Locker era. Locker gained a lot of
experience last season and is loaded with confidence. He has
missed 14 games over the past two seasons with injuries, but
when healthy, he has shown some talent.
WR Kenny Britt is also gone, but both Britt and Johnson were
problems in the locker room and not team players. The Titans
have young talent in their receiving core and should be able to
score on an aging Chiefs’ defense.
In their last eight games from last season, Kansas City was
2-6, beating only the Redskins and the Raiders. We don’t see
them covering this line and we’re calling for the outright upset.
MTi’s FORECAST: Tennessee 31 Kansas City 24
MTi’s Newsletter Totals Play
4-Star Tennessee at KANSAS CITY OVER 43.5 – The Titans
stayed under in three of their last five games last season, but
the last four that Locker started all went over by at least a TD.
This offense is better without Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson
demanding the ball and complaining when they don’t get it.<p>
The Titans’ first two draft picks were made with an eye on
protecting Locker and he should be able to get some good looks
across the field on Sunday. With new HC Whisenhunt and their
current personnel, Tennessee should pass to set up the run. This
should lead to a high-scoring affair.
Tennessee has a history of aggressiveness in this spot, as
they are 6-0 OU after last season’s opener as a dog on grass.
They have gone over by an average of 15.5 ppg in this spot and
in each of their last three active dates they went over by more
than two TDs in each. The SDQL text is:
team=Titans and D and surface=grass and date>=20130915
Finally, we have a 75% system for which the Titans qualify. It
reads, “The league is 39-13 OU when seeking previous season
revenge vs a non-divisional opponent for a non-Monday loss
as a dog in which they trailed by more than a field-goal at the
half, as long as the revenging team is not three wins ahead of
their opponent in the conference standings.”
The crux of this system is that a non-divisional team is seeking previous season revenge for a loss as a dog in which they
were trailing by more than a FG at the half. Last season the
Chiefs beat the Titans 26-17 in week five while leading 13-0 at
the half. Ryan Fitzpatrick was in for the injured Locker and was
21-of-41 passing.
As a significant road dog, the Titans have no reason to be
conservative. Their best strategy is to throw the ball aggressively
and this should get it over this number.
MTi’s FORECAST: Tennessee 31 Kansas City 24
Purchase MTi’s NFL Sides, Totals, Teasers, Futures,
First Quarter and First Half Plays at:
www.killercappers.com
2 | www.KillerSports.com
SportsBook Breakers’ NFL Selections / Week 1
SBB’s Newsletter Side
4-STAR Minnesota over ST LOUIS - We actually think Shaun
Hill can play ok for this St. Louis team and this is not the reason
we are selecting Minnesota. The Vikings are quietly a team
that has a lot of offensive talent. More importantly here, it is
the kind of talent that can neutralize St. Louis deadly pass rush,
something very important when facing this front four. Adrian
Peterson makes any team stay honest against the run and Norv
Turner’s affinity for the screen game should keep the Rams
pass rush honest. They also have a rare receive in Cordarrelle
Patterson who does not need to get downfield to make big plays.
Look for the Vikings to use their weapons to get the ball out of
Matt Cassel’s hands quickly and make enough plays to outlast
a Rams offense still looking to gel.
After a successful 2012, 2013 was a down year for Minnesota,
going just 5-10-1. That is actually a positive in wee one here.
Play on teams in week 1 which lost double digit games last
season – 126-98-7 ATS (week=1 and Sum(L@team and season)
[team and season-1]>=10).
Because it was their defense that really struggled,
Minnesota’s games went 11-3-2 OU last year, going over by
an average of 8.1 ppg. Teams which went over their totals by
an average of at least 6.8 ppg last season are 14-4-1 ATS in the
season opener next year (week=1 and Average(ou margin@
team and season)[team and season-1]>=6.8).
St. Louis is the favorite here after being favored just four
times last season. They have really not been favored often early
in the season, but going back they have really struggled out of
the game with expectations. The Rams are 0-17-2 ATS (-7.1 ppg)
since September 1997 as a favorite in the first three weeks of the
season. (team=Rams and -16<=line<0 and date>=19970901 and
week<=3). See SBB’s Trend of the Week for more information.
These teams last met in 2012, where Minnesota’s offense
had their way with St. Louis in a 36-22 victory. The Rams are
0-8 ATS (-11.6 ppg) and SU (-14.8 ppg) if not 8+ point dogs,
when facing a team they allowed more than 31 points to last
meeting (team=Rams and Po:points>31 and date>=20100101
and line<8).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Minnesota 24, ST
LOUIS 17
SportsBook Breakers’ Top Total
Jacksonville and Philadelphia Under - We realize all the focus
on the total and this game really is on the Philadelphia offense.
That is what is driving this total way up to one of the highest in
the week. However, on the other side of the field, we expect
an improved Jacksonville defense with a second year under Gus
Bradley. Even last season, their defense played markedly better
during the second half of the year, allowing 23.1 ppg. over their
final eight games. Build in some Nick Foles regression and we
can’t see predicting the Eagles to score the kind of points it would
send to take this game over.
This total, as most high totals in the first week of the season
do, is relying a little too heavily on last year’s performance.
Games with a total of at least 46 are 23-30-1 OU in week one
(week=1 and H and total>=46)
Jacksonville is a team which has played things conservatively
early in the season the past few years, leading to unders. The
Jaguars are 0-9 OU (-8.7 ppg) since 2011 in the first four weeks
of the season when the total is at least 38 and they are not 19+
point dogs (team=Jaguars and week<=4 and season>=2011 and
total>=38 and line<19).
Now Philadelphia does have a strong offense, one that
produced 6.24 points per game, good for second in the league
narrowly behind Denver. Teams which averaged at least 6.09
yards per play last season are 5-17 OU since 2001 in week one
next season (season>=2001 and week=1 and Average (YPPL@
team and season)[team and season-1]>=6.09).
That efficiency helped with a strong passing game that
produced 252.6 yards per game. Since 1996, teams which threw
for at least 250 yards per game last season are 32-57-2 OU in
their season opener (season>=1996 and week=1 and tA(PY@
team and season)[team and season-1]>=250).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 40 points
SportsBook Breakers picks
are found exclusively at
www.killercappers.com
2014 NFL Week 1 | 3
SBB’s College Football Trends to Watch (9-6)
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
Oregon St. is 15-0-1 ATS (12.7 ppg) since November 2004 if they
won by between 4 and 16 points last game which allowing more
than 10 points, if they did not enter that game on a 4+ game
losing streak.
team=ORST and date>=20041101 and 4<=p:margin<=16 and
team= ‘ORST’ and po:points>10 and (game number<=5 or
p:streak>-4)
Boise State is 10-0-1 ATS (15.6 ppg) since 1997 off a 14+ point
loss where they allowed 34-62 points.
team=BOIS and p:margin<=-14 and season>=1997 and
62>=po:points>=34
Duke is 9-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since 2000 on the road when not
more than a five-point dog, if it is not game one of the season.
team=DUKE and A and line<=7 and season>=2000 and
losses>0
Auburn is 8-0 ATS (4.4 ppg) since 2009 after winning by between
21 and 39 last game and scoring at least 45 points.
team=AUB and season>=2009 and 39>=p:margin>=21 and
p:points>=45
Fresno State is 0-12-1 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since 2002 when the line
is not within 5 of pick and they are not 16+ point dogs, if they
allowed at least 45 points last game.
team=FRES and season>=2002 and po:points>=45 and (line<-5
or line>5) and line<16
Illinois is 0-12 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since November 8, 2008 as a
regular season favorite of no more than a TD, if they weren’t
30+ point favorites last game.
team=ILL and date>=20081108 and -7<=line<=-1 and game
type=RS and p:line>-30
Akron is 0-10-1 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since December 26, 2005 if facing
a FBS school, when they covered by 10-31 points last game.
team=AKRON and date >= 20051226 and 31>= p:ats margin >=
10 and o:division = 1A)
Kentucky is 0-9 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since September 17, 2011 when
the scored no more than 27 points last game and scored at least
13 points.
team=KTKY and date>=20110917 and p:points>=13 and
po:points<=27
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A private server from SportsDataBase.com is $500 per month for all sports all the time.
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The Power of Two-Team Teasers
One of the fantastic and unique features of www.killersports.com is the ability to run teaser trends. Each week
we’ll show off five such two-team teaster trends in this space utilizing this important and often overlooked area of
handicapping. Any trend with a “p6” designation is for a play on/under 6-pt teaser and a trend including “m6” is for
a play against/over 6-pt teaser.
Teaser Trends
Sports Data Query Language
The Texans are 0-22 ATSm6 (-15.57 ppg) since Dec 10, 2012
team=Texans and surface=grass and date>=20121216
The Browns are 0-15-1 ATSm6 (-8.53 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 as
a road dog vs a divisional opponent.
team=Browns and AD and DIV and date>=20081228
The Jaguars are 15-0 OUm6 (12.40 ppg) since Oct 11, 2009 as a
road dog playing on artificial turf.
team=Jaguars and AD and surface=artificial and date>=20091011
The Broncos are 14-0 OUm6 (15.21 ppg) since Sep 21, 2008 as
a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent with a divisional opponent next game.
team=Broncos and F and NDIV and n:DIV and date>=20080921
The Dolphins are 0-14 OUp6 (-13.57 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 vs
a divisional opponent
team=Dolphins and DIV and date>=20111224
MTi’s NFL Teasers were 45-16 last season!! MTi’s week
one teasers will be available at KillerCappers.com on
Saturday Night.
SportsBook Breakers’ NFL Player Trends
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
Matt Ryan is 6-0 ATS (5.0 ppg) in his career when the lost by
4-14 last time he faced this team, while throwing no more
than one TD pass.
MattRyan:P:passing touchdowns<=1 and MattRyan:P:passes>0
and -14<=P:margin<=-4
Tom Brady is 0-12 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since 2005 against AFC teams
when he threw for over 280 yards on less than 70% passing
last time he faced this team, in a game where they were not
favored by more than four points.
TomBrady:P:passing yards>280 and P:completions/
P:passes<.7 and P:line>=-4 and o:conference=AFC and season>=2005
NFL Player Trends, new to the Killersports.com database last season, continue to be a big part of SportsBook Breakers
handicapping.. This newsletter with have page dedicated to player trends in future weeks. Above are a sampling of
previous matchup player trends active in week one.
2014 NFL Week 1 | 5
SportsBook Breakers’ NFL Trend of the Week
The Rams are 0-17-2 ATS
(-7.1 ppg) since September
1997 as a favorite in the first
three weeks of the season.
SDQL Text
team=Rams and -16<=line<0 and
date>=19970901 and week<=3
System Analysis
D
uring week one of the NFL season, the
majority of our trends which rely on
previous game data are not active. However,
there are still a few games like the trend that
are not reliant on game data.
Active Trend: The Rams are 0-17-2 ATS
(-7.1 ppg) since September 1997 as a favorite
in the first three weeks of the season.
St. Louis has not been very good as a
favorite in recent years. Going back even
further, you see that they are especially poor
as a favorite in the early season. During to
SU: 8-11-0 (-2.11, 42.1%) ATS: 0-17-2 (-7.05, 0.0%) avg line: -4.9
O/U: 10-9-0 (0.82, 52.6%) avg total: 45.0
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Completions Passing YdsTrnOvrs Team 22.2 86.1 40.3 26.3 274.5 2.6 Opp 26.8 106.6 30.6 18.8 211.8 1.7 a combination of inflated expectations, and
being a slow start, the Rams just haven’t been
able to live up to expectations.
St. Louis has been in this situation 19 times
during this trend and has won outright in just
eight of the games.
It had been several years since this trend
had been active entering week one of last
year. Identical to this Sunday, St. Louis was
a four-point favorite in the season opener.
The Rams trailed by 11 entering the fourth
quarter and rallied to win late, 27-24, but
did not cover.
Saint Louis is favored by four points over
Minnesota at home Sunday, and using the
preseason lines, this trend will also be active
week three against Dallas. Consider a play
against the Rams this week.
Query Output
Q1 3.7 3.9 Q2 6.5 7.5 Q3 4.4 6.1 Q4 6.9 6.3 Final
21.8
23.9
Day
WeekSeasonTeam Opp
Site
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSrOUr ot
Sunday 2 1997 Rams Fortyniners home 3-0 6-7 3-0 0-8 12-15 -1.0 36.5 -3 -4.0 -9.5 -6.8 -2.8 L L U
Sunday 1 1998 Rams Saints home 0-14 7-10 7-0 3-0 17-24 -4.0 36.5 -7 -11.0 4.5 -3.2 7.8 L L O
Monday 1 2000 Rams Broncos home 7-7 14-10 14-10 6-9 41-36 -8.5 48.5 5 -3.5 28.5 12.5 16.0 W L O
Sunday 2 2000 Rams Seahawks away 3-3 10-7 7-10 17-14 37-34 -8.0 46.0 3 -5.0 25.0 10.0 15.0 W L O
Sunday 1 2001 Rams Eagles away 7-3 7-0 3-0 0-14 20-17 -3.0 46.5 3 0.0 -9.5 -4.8 -4.8 W P U
Sunday 3 2001 Rams Fortyniners away 9-0 3-16 10-0 8-10 30-26 -6.5 50.5 4 -2.5 5.5 1.5 4.0 W L O
Sunday 1 2002 Rams Broncos away 0-7 6-9 7-0 3-7 16-23 -3.0 51.0 -7 -10.0 -12.0 -11.0 -1.0 L L U
Sunday 2 2002 Rams Giants home 0-3 7-14 7-3 7-6 21-26 -12.5 46.0 -5 -17.5 1.0 -8.2 9.2 L L O
Monday 3 2002 Rams Buccaneers away 7-3 0-10 0-0 7-13 14-26 -2.5 43.0 -12 -14.5 -3.0 -8.8 5.8 L L U
Sunday 1 2003 Rams Giants away 3-7 3-3 0-13 7-0 13-23 -1.0 46.5 -10 -11.0 -10.5 -10.8 0.2 L L U
Sunday 2 2003 Rams Fortyniners home 7-7 0-3 7-7 10-7 27-24 -3.0 47.0 3 0.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 W P O
Sunday 1 2004 Rams Cardinals home 0-0 6-3 3-7 8-0 17-10 -10.5 45.0 7 -3.5 -18.0 -10.8 -7.2 W L U
Sunday 3 2004 Rams Saints home 7-0 3-13 0-3 15-9 25-28 -7.0 47.5 -3 -10.0 5.5 -2.2 7.8 L L O
Sunday 1 2005 Rams Fortyniners away 3-0 6-21 3-7 13-0 25-28 -6.0 46.0 -3 -9.0 7.0 -1.0 8.0 L L O
Sunday 3 2005 Rams Titans home 0-10 17-0 7-14 7-3 31-27 -6.5 45.5 4 -2.5 12.5 5.0 7.5 W L O
Sunday 2 2006 Rams Fortyniners away 0-3 10-0 0-14 3-3 13-20 -3.0 43.5 -7 -10.0 -10.5 -10.2 -0.2 L L U
Sunday 1 2007 Rams Panthers home 7-7 3-0 3-7 0-13 13-27 -1.0 42.5 -14 -15.0 -2.5 -8.8 6.2 L L U
Sunday 2 2007 Rams Fortyniners home 7-0 6-7 0-7 3-3 16-17 -3.0 44.0 -1 -4.0 -11.0 -7.5 -3.5 L L U
Sunday 1 2013 Rams Cardinals home 0-0 10-10 3-14 14-0 27-24 -4.0 42.5 3 -1.0 8.5 3.8 4.8 W L O
Sunday 1 2014 Rams Vikings home -4.0 43.5 Sunday 3 2014 Rams Cowboys home -1.0 SportsBook Breakers is over $+2300 for the $100 player on NFL
selections the past three years. Find SportsBook Breakers selections
every week at www.killercappers.com
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SBB’s Five NFL Trends to Watch: Week 1
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
The Fortyniners are 9-0 ATS (14.39 ppg) since September 30,
2012 as a road favorite
team=Fortyniners and AF and date-P:date>200 and
date>=20120930
The Bills are 0-12 ATS (-13.50 ppg) since November 13, 2011
as a road dog if they were not road dogs or 6+ point dogs in
their last game.
team=Bills and AD and (p:H or p:F) and p:line<6 and
date>=20111113
The Colts are 12-0-1 OU (8.35 ppg) since November 07, 2010
as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent with a non-divisional
opponent next game.
team=Colts and D and NDIV and n:NDIV and date>=20101107
The Steelers are 0-11 OU (-10.23 ppg) since December 04,
2011 as a home favorite facing a team they allowed no more
than 20 points to last meeting.
team=Steelers and HF and Po:points<=20 and date>=20111204
The Lions are 0-7 OU (-10.79 ppg) since December 23, 1996 on
Monday Night Football.
team=Lions and day=Monday and date>=19961223
SportsBook Breakers’ Spotlight System
SportsBook Breakers has spent the past season focused
on league systems and has found over 100 that are winners at well over the 55% required rate for the long-term
success. Each week, SBB will highlight an active league
system here:
Play on teams with turnovers margins of
worse than -1.060 per game last season in
game one of the season.
They have gone are 23-11-1 ATS in database
history in week one the next season
SDQL TEXT: week=1 and Average(TOM@team and
season)[team and season-1]>1.06
Often times people look at a team’s performance in the last
season without looking at exactly how things got to those
final results. The how is huge – with the most important
question being how repeatable is what happened last season again going forward. Taht is a key in the system we look
at here.
Play on teams with turnovers margins of worse than -1.060
per game last season in game one of the season. They have
gone are 23-11-1 ATS in database history in week one the
next season. Even better, this system is 7-0 ATS since 2008.
Turnover margin is one of the stats that throws casual
bettors off the most from one season to the next. That is
because the correlation between an extremely strong or
poor turnover margin from one year to the next is not very
strong at all.
Just look at Houston, who at -19 was six turnovers worse
than any other team last season. In 2012, they were +13
in that department, in 2011 they were +7 and in 2010 they
were 0. Add in the fact that the main turnover culprit, Matt
Schaub, is no longer here and there is no reason to think the
Texans will struggle here again.
In week one, Houston plays a team that struggled with turnovers to a slightly lesser degree last season in Washington.
Consider the Texans as small favorites this week.
2014 NFL Week 1 | 7
SportsBook Breakers’ Futures Play
Win
Expectancy
Let’s take a look at the Packers schedule:
Line
Obviously last year’s injuries were really killers, the biggest to being to Rodgers and Clay Matthews. If they can
be healthier this season, we see the Packers defense being
around league average allowing their offense to carry them
to huge success.
Site
Green Bay’s defense really struggled last season, but they
are not as bad as it would seem. They have been absolutely
ravaged by injuries, as a team finishing 30th in overall games
lost to injury after finishing 32nd in 2012 when the still managed to go 11-5. While they might be more injury prone
than the average team, they shouldn’t be expected to lose
that many games due to injury again.
Opp
The biggest reason for confidence in this Packers squad is
a supreme confidence in their offense. Never before have
them this kind of running game to pair with Aaron Rodgers.
The offensive line is again solid and the weapons are there
for Aaron Rodgers to be elite. With the balance of running
and passing, we think they will be able to control the ball
enough to hide some of their defensive deficiencies, all while
butting up a top three offensive season.
Week
4-STAR Green Bay Over10 - Rarely do we ever take overs
of teams projected to win this many games, so this pick takes
real conviction that the Packers are going to be a good team
this season. We think they are one of a small handful of
true Super Bowl contenders and like their chances against
almost anyone here.
1
Seahawks
away
5.5
0.304
2
Jets
home
-8.5
0.816
3
Lions
away
-1
0.476
4
Bears
away
0
0.471
5
Vikings
home
-10
0.798
6
Dolphins
away
-2.5
0.475
7
Panthers
home
-4.5
0.616
8
Saints
away
3
0.418
10
Bears
home
-6
0.739
11
Eagles
home
-4.5
0.616
12
Vikings
away
-4.5
0.671
13
Patriots
home
-3.5
0.641
14
Falcons
home
-6.5
0.639
15
Bills
away
-4
0.711
16
Bucca-
away
-3
0.608
17
Lions
home
-7
0.748
Total
7.564
The win expectancy for the Packers is 9.75 games, but
due to the nature of this of teams with high win projections,
that is not all that surprising. What we like seeing here is
a decent amount of games expected to be easy wins, with
five games as a 6+ point favorite, and only two games where
they are projected to be underdogs.
More than our other picks, health is important to winning
this total. But they don’t need to be ultra healthy, as they just
need to keep Rodgers for the full season and not be among
the top few teams in the league in games lost due to injury.
We think that will happen this season.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Green Bay 12-4
SportsBook Breakers has a loaded futures slate for the 2014 NFL season with five full futures
selections including this one, as well as five more quick picks. Get all of those picks exclusively at
www.killercappers.com.
8 | www.KillerSports.com
2014 NFL Week 1
Time
8:30
THUR
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1;00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
4:25
SUN
4:25
SUN
Teams
Prev.
Green Bay at
Seattle
Buffalo at
Chicago
New Orleans at
Atlanta
Cincinnati at
Baltimore
Jacksonville at
Philadelphia
Washington at
Houston
Cleveland at
Pittsburgh
Minnesota at
St. Louis
Tennessee at
Kansas City
New England at
Miami
Oakland at
N.Y. Jets
San Francisco at
Dallas
Carolina at
Tampa Bay
Next
vs NYJ
@ SD
vs MIA
@ SF*
@ CLE
@ CIN
vs ATL
vs PIT^
@ WAS
@ IND#
vs JAC
@ OAK
vs NO
@ BAL^
vs NE
@ TB
vs DAL
@ DEN
@ MIN
@ BUF
vs HOU
@ GB
vs CHI*
@ TEN
vs DET
vs STL
Lines
Final
Notes
8:20
Indianapolis at
vs PHL#
SUN
Denver
vs KC
7:00
N.Y. Giants at
vs ARZ
MON Detroit
@ CAR
10:15 San Diego at
vs SEA
MON Arizona
@ NYG
#On Monday Night, *On Sunday Night, % On Saturday Night, ^On Thursday Night
Notes:
2014 NFL Week 1 | 9
Trends and Notes / Week 1
Note: With limited trends active in week one due to the lack of
previous game data, we are using this opportunity to show off the
ability to run teaser trends on killersports.com. Any trend with the
“p10” or “m10” designation after the ATS is a three-team teaser
trend, meaning it qualifies as a winner within 10 points of the line
or total. “p10” is for a play on or play under teaser and “m10”
is for a play against or play over teaser
Packers at Seahawks - The Seahawks are 40-0-1 OUm10
(15.62 ppg) since Sep 29, 1991 at home vs a non-divisional
opponent before playing on the road with a non-divisional opponent next game.
Saints at Falcons - The Saints are 0-6 OU (-9.83 ppg) since
Nov 21, 2013 on the road. The Falcons are 6-0 OU (9.58 ppg)
since Dec 11, 2011 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent with
a non-divisional opponent next. The Falcons are 6-0 OU (8.50
ppg) since Jan 13, 2013 as a favorite on artificial turf. The
Falcons are 23-0 ATSp10 (13.26 ppg) since Oct 07, 1990 as a
home favorite when facing a divisional opponent for the first
time of the season.
Bills at Bears - The Bears are 7-0 OU (13.64 ppg) since Dec
02, 2012 as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before
playing on the road. The Bears are 6-0 OU (8.92 ppg) since Dec
02, 2012 as a home favorite. The Bills are 0-20 ATSm10 (-19.07
ppg) since Oct 16, 2011 as a road dog.
Titans at Chiefs - The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS (-14.64 ppg) since
Dec 10, 2006 as a home favorite when they play on the road in
each of the next two weeks. The Titans are 6-0 OU (15.50 ppg)
since Sep 15, 2013 as a dog on grass.
Vikings at Rams - The Rams are 6-0 OU (14.42 ppg) since Nov
29, 1992 at home versus the Vikings.
Patriots at Dolphins - The Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS (-7.36 ppg)
since Oct 04, 2010 as a dog when facing a divisional opponent
for the first time of the season. The Dolphins are 0-9 OU (-9.28
ppg) since Nov 30, 2008 before playing the Bills. The Patriots
are 21-0 ATSp10 (16.50 ppg) since Nov 13, 2011 on the road.
Raiders at Jets - The Raiders are 0-25 ATSm10 (-17.64 ppg)
since Oct 13, 2002 on artificial turf. The Raiders are 29-0 OUm10
(15.26 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 vs a non-divisional opponent
with a non-divisional opponent next game.
Jaguars at Eagles - The Eagles are 0-6 ATS (-13.92 ppg) since
Dec 28, 2010 as a 7+ favorite vs a non-divisional opponent. The
Jaguars are 0-30-2 ATSm10 (-14.33 ppg) since Nov 03, 2002 on
the road vs a non-divisional opponent with a non-divisional
opponent next game. The Eagles are 30-0 OUm10 (14.02 ppg)
since Oct 26, 2008 at home vs a non-divisional opponent.
Browns at Steelers - The Steelers are 0-8-1 OU (-9.11 ppg)
since Dec 04, 2011 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent. The
Browns are 0-29-1 ATSm10 (-12.77 ppg) since Oct 10, 2004 on
the road vs a divisional opponent.
Bengals at Ravens - The Ravens are 6-0 ATS (13.33 ppg) since
Nov 05, 2006 within 3 of pick at home when facing a divisional
continued on page 11
Coming Next Week:
Result-Based Trends
The Trends and Notes Section of the Week #1 issue of the KillerSports.com NFL Report is always sparse
compared to subsequent issues. The reason is that 85% of the 25,000+ NFL handicapping situations in the
database involve the result of the game the previous week.
In week #1 there are no results for the previous week, so none of the result-based trends are active. Next
week, however, you will see numerous trends in this spot that will not be available anywhere else. All of
them of course, will apply for the upcoming week of action.
10 | www.KillerSports.com
Trends and Notes / Week 1 continued
opponent for the first time of the season.
Redskins at Texans - The Redskins are 0-6 ATS (-10.58 ppg)
since Oct 07, 2012 on grass vs a non-divisional opponent before
playing at home. The Texans are 0-7 ATS (-14.00 ppg) since Sep
09, 2013 as a favorite. The Redskins are 20-0 OUm10 (12.50
ppg) since Oct 09, 2005 as a road dog on grass.
Fortyniners at Cowboys - The Fortyniners are 9-0-2 ATS (10.64
ppg) since Sep 30, 2012 on the road vs a non-divisional opponent. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS (2.64 ppg) since Nov 25, 2010
as a dog on artificial turf vs a non-divisional opponent with a
non-divisional opponent next. The Fortyniners are 6-0 OU (14.83
ppg) since Sep 24, 2000 versus the Cowboys. The Cowboys are
7-0-1 OU (15.25 ppg) since Sep 29, 2013 vs a non-divisional
opponent. The Fortyniners are 20-0 ATSp10 (15.40 ppg) since
Sep 28, 2008 on the road vs a non-divisional opponent before
playing at home.
Panthers at Buccaneers - The Panthers are 0-6-1 OU (-7.36
ppg) since Sep 22, 2013 within 3 of pick. The Buccaneers are
0-7 OU (-9.86 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 as a dog vs a divisional
opponent before playing at home with a non-divisional opponent next game.
Colts at Broncos - The Colts are 6-0 ATS (8.92 ppg) since Jan
09, 2005 versus the Broncos. The Colts are 0-6 ATS (-12.42 ppg)
since Sep 07, 2008 in their season opener.
Giants at Lions - The Giants are 0-6 ATS (-9.17 ppg) since Nov
30, 1998 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent on Monday Night
Football. The Lions are 0-7 ATS (-8.64 ppg) since Oct 20, 2013
vs a non-divisional opponent.
Chargers at Cardinals - The Chargers are 7-0-1 ATS (10.12 ppg)
since Jan 13, 2008 as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent
with a non-divisional opponent next game. The Cardinals are
7-0-1 ATS (8.44 ppg) since Sep 29, 2013 vs a non-divisional opponent. The Cardinals are 23-0 ATSp10 (16.41 ppg) since Dec
12, 2010 on grass vs a non-divisional opponent. The Cardinals
are 0-22 ATSm10 (-14.75 ppg) since Sep 06, 1992 in their season opener.
NFL HANDICAPPING BIBLE Active Trends
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
KC009: The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS as a home favorite when they
play their next two on the road.
team=Chiefs and HF and n:A and nn:A and date>=20061201
TB012: The Buccaneers are 0-8 OU vs a divisional opponent
when they host a non-divisional opponent next.
team=Buccaneers and DIV and n:NDIV and n:H and
date>=20091201
Every week there are several active trends available in the 2014 NFL Handicapping Bible. Check your copy to find trends not
included here. If you have yet to download your copy, do so at http:// http://killersports.com/Download/NFL/2014NFLBible.pdf
COPYRIGHT NOTICE All the material in this publication is copyrighted by the United States Government. No part of this periodical may be reproduced in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, and electronic recording
without written consent from Killer Sports Publishing. If the reader has any questions or comments about this newsletter,
please write us at:
Killer Sports Publishing
or e-mail us at:
PO Box 862, Berea OH 44017
[email protected]
2014 NFL Week 1 | 11
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