Én-grads-krigen
(The One Degree War)
Jorgen Randers
Professor
Handelshøyskolen BI
Forskningsrådets
Globaliseringskonferanse
Holmen
2. juni 2009
Figure 1 Globalt utslipp av klimagasser – GtCO2e/år
160
Milliarder tonn CO2e pr år
140
120
Referansebanen (BAU)
100
80
60
Én-grads-krigen: 50 % kutt 2018 - 23
40
20
Én-grads-krig planen
Til klimanøytralitet 2023 - 38
0
-20
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Reetablering av klimaet: - 6 GtCO2e/år
Figure 3 Global temperaturstigning i °C
5
Referansebanen (BAU)
Grader Celsius
4
3
Målet for
Én-grads-krig
planen: +1 °C
2
Én-grads-krig planen
1
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Source: Lori Siegel et al, using C-ROADS, 2009
TAKK!
www.climatestrategy.org
[email protected]
SMELTENDE TUNDRA, SAHKA, 2006
The One Degree War Plan - summary
 Public awareness of the dangers associated with
climate change will increase over the next decade, to
the level where the public one day will demand
emergency action to cut global climate gas emissions.
 Such emergency action ought to be based on a well
prepared crisis response plan, seeking to keep global
warming below plus one degree Centigrade over preindustrial levels.
 Here (www.climatestrategy.org) we present a first draft
of the crisis response plan – “The One Degree War
Plan” – and encourages further broad efforts to improve
the plan.
TABLE 1: OVERVIEW OF ONE DEGREE WAR
all items in billion tons of CO2-equivalents per year
(GtCO2e/yr)
Source
Emissions
in
Emissions
after
C-war
Emissions
after
C-push
Emissions
after
C-century
2018
2023
2038
2100
Energy supply
15
8
1
0
Transport
7
4
1
0
Buildings
4
1
0
0
Industry
11
6
0
0
Agriculture
8
4
-1
-3
Forestry
10
5
-1
-3
Waste
2
1
0
0
= 56
= 28
=0
=-6
SUM EMISSIONS
Figure 1 GHG Emissions into the Atmosphere – GtCO2e/year
Billion tons of CO2e per year
160
140
120
100
BAU
80
60
40
One Degree War Plan
20
0
-20
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Source: Lori Siegel et al, using C-ROADS, 2009
Figure 2 GHG Concentration in the Atmosphere – ppm CO2e
Parts per million of CO2e
1,400
1,120
840
BAU
One Degree War Plan
560
280
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Source: Lori Siegel et al, using C-ROADS, 2009
Figure 3 Global Temperature Change Relative to Pre-Industrial
5
4
Degrees Centigrade
Temperature Goal – 1 Degree C
3
BAU
One Degree War Plan
2
1
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Source: Lori Siegel et al, using C-ROADS, 2009
Figure 4 Sea Level Rise from Year 2000
1,000
One Degree War Plan
millimeters
750
500
BAU
250
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Source: Lori Siegel et al, using C-ROADS, 2009
TABLE 2: DETAILS OF PHASE ONE: CLIMATE WAR (all items in GtCO2e per year)
Source
2018
Emissions
after
C-war
2023
Energy supply
15
8
Closing the most climate intensive power plants (cutting
emissions by one third and production by one fifth),
introducing carbon capture and storage on 1.000 of the
remaining 4.000 power stations. Large scale expansion of
wind and solar (to replace closed-down fossil heat and
power).
Transport
7
4
Reducing emissions by rapid electrification of the car fleet,
forced shift to small cars and rationing of daily driving.
Dramatic reduction in non-essential air travel, replaced by
electronic communication.
Buildings
4
1
Dramatic increase in energy efficiency and immediate
change of indoor temperature by 2 °C
Industry
11
6
Shifting maximally to recycled metals and fibre, limiting
production of aluminium, cement, iron and forest products.
Shifting towards renewable materials and increasing energy
efficiency.
Agriculture
8
4
Shift away from red meat, towards vegetarianism and
agricultural methods that increase the carbon content of the
soil.
Forestry
10
5
Halving of all harvesting of wood
Waste
2
1
Capturing all methane from landfills, and burning all waste
for energy purposes (heat and power).
= 56
= 28
SUM
Emissions
in
Initiatives