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Figure 1a: Money growth regime
2
o
inflation
1
o
0
-1
-2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
time
Figure 1b: Exchange rate regime
5
10
15
20
40
45
50
40
45
50
2
inflation
1
0
-1
-2
0
25
time
30
35
Figure 2: Equilibrium reversion probabilities
0.12
0.1
1.4*B/H(p)
E2*
o
0.08
0.06
F1*
o
0.8*B/H(p)
E1*
o
0.04
SD = 0.8, 1.4
Nash infl = 10%
0.02
Psi(p,0)
Psi(p,0.03)
q = 0, 0.03
beta = 0.99
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
reversion probability p
2
2.5
3
x 10
-3
Figure 3a: Optimal reversion probabilities
0.02
0.018
0.016
reversion probability p
0.014
0.012
Nash infl = 3%
0.01
0.008
0.006
Nash infl = 5%
0.004
0.002
Nash infl = 10%
Nash infl = 20%
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
SD, domestic velocity
2
2.5
Figure 3b: Optimal inflation thresholds
8
Nash infl = 20%
7
Nash infl = 10%
Inflation trigger
6
Nash infl = 5%
5
Nash infl = 3%
4
3
2
1
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
SD, domestic velocity
2
2.5
Figure 4: Instrument choice
3.5
3
Nash infl = 10%
b*alpha = 8, 4, 2, 1
beta = 0.99
SD, foreign inflation
2.5
2
Money growth preferred
1.5
1
Exchange rate preferred
0.5
45o
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
SD, domestic velocity
2
2.5
Figure 5a: Tax rates
0.35
myopic, average capital tax
0.3
0.25
Rule, average capital tax
(interest rate)
0.2
0.15
Ramsey labor tax (both states)
0.1
0.05
Rule, average labor tax
0
-0.05
0
Ramsey, average capital tax
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
probability of myopic type
0.5
0.6
0.7
Figure 5b: Capital tax revenue
2.5
2
1.5
1
myopic (high g)
g=2
Ramsey (high g)
Rule (high g)
0.5
myopic and Rule (low g)
0
g=0
Ramsey (low g)
-0.5
-1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
probability of myopic type
0.5
0.6
0.7
Figure 5c: Consumption
10.5
myopic (both states) and Rule (g = 0)
10
9.5
Ramsey (both states)
9
Rule (g = 2)
8.5
8
7.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
probability of myopic type
0.5
0.6
0.7
Figure 5d: Expected utility
15.65
myopic
15.6
Rule
mixed (average)
15.55
Ramsey
15.5
15.45
15.4
15.35
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
probability of myopic type
0.5
0.6
0.7