+86 755 23976755
[email protected]
28 April 2011
Disappointed 1Q11 Results，“Neutral”
1Q11业绩令人失望, “中性”
z
Magang delivered disappointed 1Q11 results under China’s Accounting rules. Revenue reached
RMB 20,507.4mn, up 43.6% yoy. Net profit reached RMB 106.1mn, down 79.6% yoy. 1Q11 EPS reached
RMB 0.014, down 79.4% yoy. Gross margin only reached 3.3%, down 5.1ppt yoy. SG&A was RMB
361.3mn, accounting for 1.8% of its total revenue, down 0.5ppt yoy. Finance cost reached RMB 196.0mn,
accounting for 0.96% of its total revenue, down 0.3ppt yoy. Steel products sales volume reached 3.61mn
tons, up 0.91% yoy.
z
We consider Magang’s weak 1Q11 results were mainly due to reducing pricing powers on train
wheel products and strong iron ore price. We expect in 1H11 construction steel markets would
maintain weak, mainly due to increasing oversupply risk. Higher than expected crude steel production
might increase iron ore price. As a result, gross margin of construction steel producer would be under
pressure constantly. However, current favorable factor is that China might suffer from electricity shortage.
If Hebei government begins to execute power cut policy, domestic crude steel production could be slowed
and construction steel price might increase, supporting Magang’s valuation in short run.
z
We consider strong iron ore price, weak ASP of train wheel steel products, and oversupply risk in
construction steel are the main factors suppressing Magang’s valuations. Our FY11-13 EPS
estimates for Magang are RMB 0.200, RMB 0.272 and RMB 0.360 respectively. We consider Magang
might stay at breakeven point in 1H11. We maintain our TP at HKD 4.5, representing 17.4x 2011E PE and
1.0x 2011E PB. Maintain “Neutral”.
z
公司公布中国会计准则下 1Q11 业绩，令人失望。公司收入达到 20,507 百万元（人民币，下同），同比上升
43.6%。净利润仅为人民币 106.1 百万元，同比下降 79.6%。1Q11 EPS 达到人民币 0.014 元，同比下降 79.4%。
1Q11 的毛利率仅为 3.3%，较去年同期下降 5.1 个百分点。销售和管理费用达到人民币 361.3 百万元，占总
收入比重的 1.8%，同比下降 0.5 个百分点。财务成本达到 413 百万元，占总收入比重的 0.96%，同比下降
0.3 个百分点。公司生产钢材 361 万吨，同比增加 0.91%。
z
我们认为马钢业绩较弱的主要原因是火车轮产品失去议价能力以及铁矿石价格上升。我们预期 1H11 建筑钢
GTJAResearch 国泰君安研究
Ray Zhao 赵 睿
(00323 HK)
Magang (00323 HK)
Flash Note: Magang (00323 HK)
快讯：马钢股份
市场将持续疲软，主要是由于产能过剩风险加大。而粗钢产量高于预期将可能导致铁矿石价格快速上涨。建
筑钢的毛利率将因此进一步收到压制。但是有利因素是，目前国内可能出现紧缺。如果河北开始限电，那么
可能造成的结果是粗钢产量放缓，建筑钢价上行，短期对股价有一定的支撑。
z
我们认为铁矿石价格强势，火车轮销售价格疲弱，以及建筑钢产能过剩风险是压制马钢估值的长期因素。我
们对马钢 11-13 财年的盈利预测分别是人民币 0.200 元，人民币 0.272 元，和人民币 0.360 元。我们认为公
Flash note
司在目标价 4.5 港元，相当于 17.4 倍的 2011E PE 和 1.0 倍的 2011 年 PB。维持“中性”的投资评级。
Company Rating Definition
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 1 of 2
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Rating
Definition
Buy
Relative Performance >15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Relative Performance is 5% to 15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Accumulate
Neutral
Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.
Reduce
Relative Performance is -5% to -15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sell
Relative Performance <-15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
28 April 2011
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Sector Rating Definition
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating
Outperform
Definition
Relative Performance >5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.
Neutral
Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.
Underperform
Relative Performance <-5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
(4)
The Analysts and their associates do not serve as director in the listed corporation mentioned in this Research Report.
The Analysts and their associates have no financial interests in the listed corporation mentioned in this Research Report.
Except for Shandong Chenming (01812), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold more than 1% of the market capitalization
of listed corporation mentioned in this Research Report.
Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships within the preceding 12 months for the listed
corporation mentioned in this Research Report.
DISCLAIMER
This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities
(Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in
research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,
underwriter or invest proprietarily).
错误！链接无效。西部水泥
(1)
(2)
(3)
(02233 HK)
DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS
Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales
persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or
be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan.
Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does
not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking
estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and
mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks,
and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision.
This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located
in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would
subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
Flash Note
© 2011 Guotai Junan Securities International. All Rights Reserved.
27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queens’ Road Central, Hong Kong.
Tel.: (852) 2509-9118
Fax: (852) 2509-7793
Website: www.gtja.com.hk
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 2 of 2