-2851$/2)*(23+<6,&$/5(6($5&+92/12'3$*(6-81(
*OREDOWURSRVSKHULF12FROXPQGLVWULEXWLRQV&RPSDULQJ
WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDOPRGHOFDOFXODWLRQVZLWK*20(
PHDVXUHPHQWV
*XXV-09HOGHUV &ODLUH*UDQLHU 5REHUW:3RUWPDQQ .ODXV3IHLOVWLFNHU
0DUN:HQLJ 7KRPDV:DJQHU 8OULFK3ODWW $QGUHDV5LFKWHU DQG
-RKQ3%XUURZV
$EVWUDFW7URSRVSKHULF12FROXPQVGHULYHGIURPWKHGDWDSURGXFWVRIWKH*OREDO2]RQH
0RQLWRULQJ([SHULPHQW*20(GHSOR\HGRQWKH(6$(56VDWHOOLWHKDYHEHHQFRPSDUHG
ZLWKPRGHOFDOFXODWLRQVIURPWZRJOREDOWKUHHGLPHQVLRQDOFKHPLVWU\WUDQVSRUWPRGHOV
,0$*(6DQG02=$577KHPDLQREMHFWLYHVRIWKHVWXG\DUHDQDQDO\VLVRIWKHWURSRVSKHULF
12GDWDGHULYHGIURPVDWHOOLWHPHDVXUHPHQWVDQLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRILWDQGHYDOXDWLRQRILWV
TXDOLW\XVLQJJOREDOPRGHOVDQGDQHVWLPDWLRQWKHUROHRI12LQUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJ7KH
PHDVXUHGDQGPRGHOHG12FROXPQVVKRZVLPLODUVSDWLDODQGVHDVRQDOSDWWHUQVZLWKODUJH
WURSRVSKHULFFROXPQDPRXQWVRYHULQGXVWULDOL]HGDUHDVDQGVPDOOFROXPQDPRXQWVRYHU
UHPRWHDUHDV7KHFRPSDULVRQRIWKHDEVROXWHYDOXHVRIWKHPHDVXUHGDQGPRGHOHG
WURSRVSKHULFFROXPQDPRXQWVDUHSDUWLFXODUO\GHSHQGHQWXSRQXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHGHULYDWLRQ
RIWKHWURSRVSKHULF12FROXPQVIURP*20(DQGWKHGLIILFXOW\RIPRGHOLQJWKHERXQGDU\
OD\HULQJOREDOPRGHOVERWKRIZKLFKDUHGLVFXVVHGEHORZ7KHPHDVXUHGWURSRVSKHULF
FROXPQDPRXQWVGHULYHGIURP*20(GDWDDUHRIWKHVDPHRUGHUDVWKRVHFDOFXODWHGE\WKH
02=$57PRGHORYHUWKHLQGXVWULDOL]HGDUHDVRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG(XURSHEXWDIDFWRU
RIODUJHUIRU$VLD7KHPRGHOHGWURSRVSKHULF12FROXPQVIURP02=$57DVZHOODVWKH
FROXPQDPRXQWVPHDVXUHGE\*20(DUHLQJRRGDJUHHPHQWZLWK12FROXPQVGHULYHGIURP
REVHUYHG12PL[LQJUDWLRVLQWKHERXQGDU\OD\HULQHDVWHUQ1RUWK$PHULFD7KHFRPSDULVRQ
RIWKHPRGHOVWRWKH*20(GDWDLOOXVWUDWHVWKHGHJUHHWRZKLFKSUHVHQWPRGHOVUHSURGXFHWKH
KRWVSRWVVHHQLQWKH*20(GDWD7KHUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJRI12KDVEHHQHVWLPDWHGIURPWKH
FDOFXODWHGWURSRVSKHULF12FROXPQV7KHORFDOPD[LPDLQWKHUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJRI
WURSRVSKHULF12IRUFORXGIUHHFRQGLWLRQVRYHUWKHHDVWHUQ8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGZHVWHUQ
(XURSHUHSUHVHQW:PZKLOHYDOXHVRI:PDUHHVWLPDWHGRQD
FRQWLQHQWDOVFDOHLQWKHVHUHJLRQVRIWKHVDPHRUGHURIPDJQLWXGHDVWKHIRUFLQJRI12DQG
VRPHZKDWVPDOOHUWKDQWKHUHJLRQDOIRUFLQJRIWURSRVSKHULFR]RQH7KHJOREDOO\DYHUDJHG
UDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJRIWURSRVSKHULF12LVQHJOLJLEOHa:P
,QWURGXFWLRQ
BBBBBBBB
$HURQRP\/DERUDWRU\12$$%RXOGHU&RORUDGR
6HUYLFH
G¶$pURQRPLH
&HQWUH
1DWLRQDO
GH
5HFKHUFKH
&RRSHUDWLYH ,QVWLWXWH IRU 5HVHDUFK LQ (QYLURQPHQWDO 6FLHQFH
8QLYHUVLW\RI&RORUDGR%RXOGHU&RORUDGR
,QVWLWXW IU 8PZHOWSK\VLN 8QLYHUVLW\ RI +HLGHOEHUJ +HLGHOEHUJ
*HUPDQ\
,QVWLWXWH
OD
6FLHQWLILTXH3DULV)UDQFH
$LU5HVHDUFK/DERUDWRU\ 1DWLRQDO ,QVWLWXWH RI 3XEOLF +HDOWK DQG
WKH(QYLURQPHQW5,90%LOWKRYHQ1HWKHUODQGV
WURSRVSKHUH>HJ&KDPHLGHVHWDO@7KHUHE\12 SDU
WLFLSDWHV LQ WKH FRQWURO RI WKH VWURQJ R[LGDQW 2 DQG WKH
VWURQJHVW DWPRVSKHULF R[LGL]LQJ DJHQW 2+ DQG SOD\V DQ
LPSRUWDQW SDUW LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH R[LGL]LQJ FDSDFLW\ RI WKH
DWPRVSKHUH>/RJDQHWDO@5HFHQWO\LWKDVEHHQUHFRJ
QL]HGWKDW12 FRQWULEXWHVERWKGLUHFWO\DQG LQGLUHFWO\ WR WKH
UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ RI FOLPDWH >6RORPRQ HW DO @ ,Q
DGGLWLRQ LW LV NQRZQ WKDW LQ KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQ 12 FDXVHV
UHVSLUDWRU\ SUREOHPV IRU KXPDQV >HJ (QYLURQPHQWDO 3UR
WHFWLRQ$JHQF\(3$@
$V ERWK WKH DWPRVSKHULF VRXUFHV DQG VLQNV RI 12 DUH
VWURQJO\QRQKRPRJHQHRXVO\GLVWULEXWHGWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI
12 LQ WKH WURSRVSKHUH LV KLJKO\ YDULDEOH ERWK VSDWLDOO\ DQG
WHPSRUDOO\>HJ(PPRQVHWDO@,QWKHERXQGDU\OD\HU
DERYH LQGXVWULDOL]HG DUHDV YDOXHV XS WR VHYHUDO WHQV RI SSEY
DUH REVHUYHG KDYLQJ D VWURQJ GLXUQDO YDULDWLRQ ZKHUHDV LQ
UHPRWH DUHDV WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DUH W\SLFDOO\ LQ WKH UDQJH RI
SSWY 3ULRU WR WKH DGYHQW RI VSDFHEDVHG UHPRWH
VHQVLQJLQVWUXPHQWDWLRQVXFKDVWKH*OREDO2]RQH0RQLWRULQJ
([SHULPHQW *20( DQG EHFDXVH RI LWV KLJK LQWULQVLF
YDULDELOLW\ DQG FRQVHTXHQW VSDUVH VHW RI LQ VLWX RU UHPRWH
VHQVLQJ PHDVXUHPHQWV JOREDO NQRZOHGJH DERXW WKH DPRXQW
1LWURJHQ GLR[LGH 12 SOD\V D NH\ UROH LQ WURSRVSKHULF
FKHPLVWU\ )RU H[DPSOH LWV SKRWRO\VLV OHDGV WR WKH IRUPDWLRQ
RIR]RQH2 DQGLWVUHDFWLRQZLWKWKHK\GUR[\OUDGLFDO2+
SURGXFHV QLWULF DFLG +12 7KHVH SURFHVVHV DUH RI LPSRU
WDQFHLQERWKWKHSODQHWDU\ERXQGDU\OD\HUDQGIUHH
RI
(QYLURQPHQWDO
3K\VLFV
8QLYHUVLW\
RI
%UHPHQ
%UHPHQ*HUPDQ\
&RS\ULJKWE\WKH$PHULFDQ*HRSK\VLFDO8QLRQ
3DSHUQXPEHU-'
-'
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
DQGGLVWULEXWLRQRI12 KDVEHHQGLIILFXOWLIQRWLPSRVVLEOHWR
REWDLQ ,Q VHYHUDO UHFHQW VWXGLHV >+RURZLW] DQG -DFRE /HY\ HW DO 3HQQHU HW DO :DQJ HW DO .UDXV HW DO /DPDUTXH HW DO @ FKHPLVWU\ WUDQV
SRUW PRGHOV KDYH EHHQ XVHG WR FDOFXODWH WKH JOREDO WKUHH
GLPHQVLRQDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WURSRVSKHULF 12[ DQG VWXG\ LWV
VRXUFHVVLQNVDQGDWPRVSKHULFWUDQVSRUW
*20(>%XUURZVHWDO@LVDVPDOOVFDOH
YHUVLRQRIWKH6FDQQLQJ,PDJLQJ$EVRUSWLRQ6SHFWURPHWHUIRU
$WPRVSKHULF &KDUWRJUDSK\ 6&,$0$&+< >%RYHVPDQQ HW
DO @ REVHUYLQJ EHWZHHQ DQG QP DQG RQO\ LQ
QDGLU YLHZLQJ JHRPHWU\ ,W PHDVXUHV WKH UDGLDQFH XSZHOOLQJ
IURP WKH DWPRVSKHUH DQG WKH H[WUDWHUUHVWULDO VRODU LUUDGLDQFH
$SSURSULDWH LQYHUVLRQ RI WKHVH GDWD SURGXFWV \LHOGV JOREDO
LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH DWPRVSKHULF DEVRUSWLRQ DQG VFDWWHULQJ
SURFHVVHV HQDEOLQJ WKH DEXQGDQFH RI WUDFH FRQVWLWXHQWV VXFK
DV2 DQG12 WREHUHWULHYHG
7KH*20(PHDVXUHPHQWVKDYHEHHQXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\WR
GHWHUPLQH WKH 12 WURSRVSKHULF FROXPQ GLVWULEXWLRQ RQ D
JOREDO VFDOH 7KH UHWULHYDO RI WKHVH XQLTXH GDWD LV MXVW QRZ
SRVVLEOHZLWKWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVRIWKH*20(LQVWUXPHQW,Q
DGGLWLRQ WZR WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO JOREDO FKHPLVWU\ WUDQVSRUW
PRGHOV ,0$*(6 ,QWHUPHGLDWH 0RGHO IRU WKH *OREDO (YROX
WLRQ RI 6SHFLHV >0OOHU DQG %UDVVHXU 3KDP HW DO
*UDQLHU HW DO D E@ DQG
02=$57 0RGHO IRU 2]RQH DQG 5HODWHG &KHPLFDO 7UDFHUV
>%UDVVHXU HW DO +DXJOXVWDLQH HW DO @ KDYH EHHQ
XVHG WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH UHWULHYHG WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQ
DPRXQWVDQGKHOSWRLQWHUSUHWLW%RWKPRGHOVXVHWKH('*$5
HPLVVLRQ GDWDEDVH >2OLYLHU HW DO @ IRU DQWKURSRJHQLF
HPLVVLRQV DQG WKH GDWDEDVH GHYHORSHG E\ 0OOHU >@ IRU
QDWXUDOHPLVVLRQV7KHPDLQGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHVHPRGHOV
DUHWKHVRXUFHRIWKHDWPRVSKHULFZLQGILHOGVPRQWKO\PHDQ
FOLPDWRORJLFDOILHOGVIRU,0$*(6DQGKRXUO\ILHOGVIURPD
JOREDO FLUFXODWLRQ PRGHO IRU 02=$57 DQG WKH UHSUHVHQWD
WLRQ RI WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU 02=$57 KDV D OHVV GLIIXVLYH
ERXQGDU\ OD\HU WKDQ ,0$*(6 UHVXOWLQJ LQ D PRUH UHDOLVWLF
UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH SK\VLFDO DQG FKHPLFDO SURFHVVHV LQ WKH
ORZHVWOD\HUVRIWKHPRGHO
,Q WKLV GHFDGH D QXPEHU RI VDWHOOLWH LQVWUXPHQWV ZLOO EH
ODXQFKHG LQWR ORZ (DUWK RUELW ZKRVH SULPDU\ REMHFWLYH LV WR
LQYHVWLJDWH WKH WUDFH JDV GLVWULEXWLRQV LQ WKH ORZHU WURSR
VSKHUHHJ6&,$0$&+<RQ(19,6$7>%RYHVPDQQHWDO
DQG UHIHUHQFHV WKHUHLQ@ *20( RQ 0(723 2]RQH
0RQLWRULQJ ,QVWUXPHQW 20, DQG 7URSRVSKHULF (PLVVLRQ
6SHFWURPHWHU 7(6 RQ (26&+(0 $Q DGHTXDWH XQGHU
VWDQGLQJRIDWPRVSKHULFUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHULQSDUWLFXODULQWKH
ERXQGDU\ OD\HU LV UHTXLUHG WR LQWHUSUHW DFFXUDWHO\ WKH VODQW
FROXPQDPRXQWVIURPWKHVHQDGLUVRXQGLQJLQVWUXPHQWV
,Q WKLV VWXG\ WKH JOREDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WURSRVSKHULF 12
FROXPQDPRXQWVUHWULHYHGIURP*20(OHYHOGDWDSURGXFWV
KDYHEHHQFRPSDUHGZLWK12 FROXPQDPRXQWVLQIHUUHGIURP
WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO FKHPLVWU\ WUDQVSRUW PRGHOV ,QYHVWLJDWLQJ
WKH VLPLODULWLHV DQG GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH PDJQLWXGH JOREDO
GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG VHDVRQDO YDULDWLRQV RI WKH UHWULHYHG DQG
VLPXODWHG12 SURYLGHVQRYHOLQVLJKWLQWRWKHJOREDOEHKDYLRU
RI 12[ ,PSRUWDQWO\ WKH *20( WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQV
UHYHDO ³KRWVSRWV´ RI VLJQLILFDQFH IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI
UHJLRQDOWUDQVQDWLRQDODQGLQWHUFRQWLQHQWDODLUSROOXWLRQ
7KHDOJRULWKPVXVHGWRUHWULHYH12 FROXPQDPRXQWVIURP
*20( REVHUYDWLRQV DUH GLVFXVVHG LQ VHFWLRQ 6HFWLRQ GHVFULEHV WKH FKHPLVWU\ WUDQVSRUW PRGHOV ,0$*(6 DQG
02=$57 ,Q VHFWLRQ PRGHOHG ,0$*(6 DQG 02=$57
DQG REVHUYHG *20( 12 FROXPQ DPRXQWV DUH FRPSDUHG
7KHFRQWULEXWLRQVRIWKHGLIIHUHQWDWPRVSKHULFPRGHOOD\HUVWR
WKHWRWDOWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQDPRXQWVDQG WKH GLIIHUHQW
IDFWRUVDIIHFWLQJWKHVLPXODWHG12 FROXPQVDUHGLVFXVVHGLQ
VHFWLRQIROORZHGE\DFRPSDULVRQRIWKHPRGHOHG12 GDWD
ZLWKREVHUYDWLRQVLQVHFWLRQ7KHHIIHFWRIWKH12 FROXPQV
RQWKHUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJRIFOLPDWHLVSUREHGLQVHFWLRQDQG
VHFWLRQVXPPDUL]HVWKHPDMRUFRQFOXVLRQVWREHGUDZQIURP
RXUVWXG\
7URSRVSKHULF12&ROXPQV5HWULHYHG)URP
*20(
,QWKLVVHFWLRQWKH*20(LQVWUXPHQWDQGLWVPHDVXUHPHQWV
DUH GHVFULEHG WKH UHWULHYDO PHWKRGV DSSOLHG WR WKH *20(
REVHUYDWLRQV DUH GLVFXVVHG DQG WKH UHVXOWDQW PRQWKO\
DYHUDJHGWURSRVSKHULF12 YHUWLFDOFROXPQGHQVLWLHV 9&'V
IRU DUH SUHVHQWHG $V D ODUJH SDUW RI WKH WURSRVSKHULF
12 FROXPQ RYHU SROOXWHG DUHDV LV EHOLHYHG WR EH ORFDWHG LQ
WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ RI *20( GDWD WR XQFHU
WDLQWLHV LQ WKH UHWULHYDO RI 12 LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU LV
FRQVLGHUHGDQGDQHVWLPDWHRIWKHWRWDOWURSRVSKHULF12 9&'
PDGH ZKLFK DFFRXQWV IRU FORXGV FRYHULQJ LWV VRXUFH UHJLRQV
GXULQJWKH*20(RYHUSDVVHV
7URSRVSKHULF 12 SOXPHV W\SLFDOO\ RFFXU RQ UHJLRQDO DQG
FRQWLQHQWDOVFDOHVDVVKRZQLQ3ODWHVFDQGZKHUHORFDOO\
ODUJH DPRXQWV DUH REVHUYHG RYHU (XURSH HDVWHUQ 1RUWK
$PHULFD SDUWV RI $VLD DQG WKH -RKDQQHVEXUJ PHWURSROLWDQ
DUHDLQ6RXWK$IULFD0RUHWKDQRIWKHWURSRVSKHULF12
LV EHOLHYHG WR EH HPLWWHG LQWR FRQWLQHQWDO DLU ZKLOH WKH
UHPDLQLQJLVJHQHUDWHGRYHUWKHRFHDQE\OLJKWQLQJDQG
VKLS RU DLUFUDIW HPLVVLRQV >HJ 9DONV DQG 9HOGHUV @ ,Q
FRQWUDVWVWUDWRVSKHULF12[UHVXOWVODUJHO\IURPWKHUHDFWLRQRI
QLWURXV R[LGH 1 2 ZLWK H[FLWHG R[\JHQ DWRPV ,Q DGGLWLRQ
WKH UHODWLYHO\ VKRUW OLIHWLPH RI 12[ LQ WKH WURSRVSKHUH FRP
SDUHG WR WKDW LQ WKH VWUDWRVSKHUH OHDGV WR LWV WURSRVSKHULF
GLVWULEXWLRQ DSSHDULQJ DV SOXPHV HPDQDWLQJ IURP VRXUFH
UHJLRQV
2YHU SRSXODWHG UHJLRQV RI WKH FRQWLQHQWV WKH PDMRULW\ RI
WKH 12 FROXPQ LV UHOHDVHG IURP DQG EHOLHYHG WR EH ORFDWHG
SULPDULO\ LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU ZLWK VPDOOHU DPRXQWV EHLQJ
WUDQVSRUWHGWRRUJHQHUDWHGLQWKHIUHHWURSRVSKHUHDQGVWUDWR
VSKHUH ,Q WKH UHPRWH PDULWLPH DWPRVSKHUH WKH RQO\
VLJQLILFDQW VRXUFH RI WURSRVSKHULF 12 LV LQFORXG OLJKWQLQJ
DQGWUDQVSRUWIURPWKHFRQWLQHQWV$QDO\VLVRIERWKPRGHOVRI
WKH VWUDWRVSKHULF 12 EHKDYLRU DQG WKH 8$56 +$/2( 12
GDWD SURGXFWV UHYHDOV WKDW WKH 12 FROXPQ LQ WKH XSSHU
DWPRVSKHUH KDV VLJQLILFDQW ORQJLWXGLQDO KRPRJHQHLW\ XS WR
DQG EH\RQG ODWLWXGHV RI ƒ IRU WKH VDPH VRODU ]HQLWK DQJOH
7KLVLV H[SODLQHG E\ WKH IDFW WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKLV 12 LV
ORFDWHG LQ WKH PLGGOH DQG XSSHU VWUDWRVSKHUH ZKHUH LW LV
UHODWLYHO\XQSHUWXUEHGE\ORFDOFKDQJHVLQWKHWURSRVSKHUHEXW
VWURQJO\ LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH VRODU ]HQLWK DQJOH ,Q DGGLWLRQ
DGYHFWLYH PL[LQJ RI 12[ DW VXFK DOWLWXGHV LV UHODWLYHO\ UDSLG
FRPSDUHGWRWKHUDWHRILWVFKHPLFDOSURGXFWLRQRUORVV
7KH DVVXPSWLRQV WKDW WKH XSSHU DWPRVSKHULF FROXPQ RI
12 LV ORQJLWXGLQDOO\ KRPRJHQHRXV DQG WKDW WURSRVSKHULF
DPRXQWV RI 12 DERYH WKH FOHDQ UHPRWH RFHDQ DUH VPDOO
SURYLGH WKH SK\VLFDO EDVLV HQDEOLQJ WKH WURSRVSKHULF DQG
VWUDWRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVWREHVHSDUDWHGIURPWKHLQYHUVLRQ
RI QDGLU REVHUYDWLRQV RI *20( RU 6&,$0$&+< 7ZR
UHODWHG EXW LQGHSHQGHQW DSSURDFKHV KDYH EHHQ XVHG LQ WKLV
VWXG\7KH\ERWKXWLOL]HWKH*20(OHYHOGDWDSURGXFWVWKH
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
3ODWH )ORZFKDUW RI WKH VWHSV LQ WKH DOJRULWKP WR VHSDUDWH WKH VWUDWRVSKHULF DQG WURSRVSKHULF SDUWV RI WKH
*20( 12 FROXPQ D WKH ODQG PDVVHV DQG FORXG\ SL[HOV DUH PDVNHG RXW DQG E WKH VWUDWRVSKHUH LV
HVWLPDWHG XVLQJ D QRUPDOL]HG FRQYROXWLRQ F 7KH WURSRVSKHULF UHVLGXDO LV WKHQ HVWLPDWHG E\ FDOFXODWLQJ WKH
GLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ3ODWHVDDQGE3ODWHFVKRZVWKH*20(WURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQZLWKWKHFRUUHFWDLU
PDVVIDFWRUVGHSHQGLQJRQVRODU]HQLWKDQJOHJURXQGDOEHGRDQGFORXGV1RWHWKHGLIIHUHQWVFDOHVRIWKHPDSV
WRS RI WKH DWPRVSKHUH UDGLDQFH 72$5$' REVHUYHG IURP
WKH *20( YLHZLQJ JHRPHWU\ DQG WKH H[WUDWHUUHVWULDO VRODU
LUUDGLDQFH(76,5
*20(,QVWUXPHQWDQG2EVHUYDWLRQV
7KH *20( LQVWUXPHQW RQ ERDUG WKH VHFRQG (XURSHDQ
5HVHDUFK 6DWHOOLWH (56 FRPSULVHV D VFDQQLQJ PLUURU
VSHFWURPHWHU WKHUPDO DQG HOHFWURQLF VXEV\VWHPV >%XUURZV HW
DO@/LJKWIURPWKHDWPRVSKHUHLVFROOHFWHG
E\ WKH VFDQ PLUURU WKHQ IRFXVHG RQ WKH HQWUDQFH VOLW RI WKH
VSHFWURPHWHU E\ DQ RIID[LV SDUDEROLF WHOHVFRSH $IWHU EHLQJ
FROOLPDWHG WKH OLJKW SDVVHV WKRXJK D SUHGLVSHUVLQJ SULVP
IRUPLQJDQLQWHUPHGLDWHVSHFWUXPZLWKLQWKHLQVWUXPHQW7KH
SUHGLVSHUVLQJSULVPLVVXFKWKDWLQWHUQDOUHIOHFWLRQUHVXOWVLQD
SRODUL]HG EHDP ZKLFK LV GLUHFWHG WRZDUGV WKH SRODUL]DWLRQ
PRQLWRULQJ GHYLFH 30' 7KH ODWWHU FRPSULVH WKUHH
EURDGEDQGGHWHFWRUVZKLFKREVHUYHXSZHOOLQJUDGLDWLRQIURP
WKH DWPRVSKHUH SRODUL]HG UHODWLYH WR SODQH ZLWKLQ WKH LQVWUX
PHQWLQWKHZDYHOHQJWKUDQJHVQPQPDQG
QP UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH PDLQ EHDP IURP WKH SUHGLV
SHUVLQJ SULVP IRUPV D VSHFWUXP ZLWKLQ WKH LQVWUXPHQW
'LIIHUHQW VHFWLRQV RI WKLV VSHFWUXP DUH WKHQ GLUHFWHG WRZDUG
WKH IRXU VSHFWUDO FKDQQHOV RI *20( HDFK FKDQQHO
FRPSULVLQJDJUDWLQJWUDQVPLVVLYHRSWLFVDQGDHOHPHQW
GLRGH DUUD\ ,Q WKLV PDQQHU WKH HQWLUH VSHFWUXP EHWZHHQ DQG QP PD\ EH REVHUYHG WKH VSHFWUDO UHVROXWLRQ EHLQJ
aDQGQPEHORZDQGDERYHQPUHVSHFWLYHO\
$V*20(LVRSWLPL]HGIRUWKHFROOHFWLRQRIWKHXSZHOOLQJ
UDGLDWLRQIURPWKHDWPRVSKHUHGLUHFWO\E\WKHVFDQPLUURULWLV
QHFHVVDU\ WR GLUHFW WKH H[WUD WHUUHVWULDO VRODU RXWSXW RYHU D
GLIIXVHUSODWHWRUHGXFHLWVLQWHQVLW\SULRUWRLWEHLQJUHIOHFWHG
E\WKHVFDQPLUURULQWRWKHLQVWUXPHQW,QWKLVPDQQHUERWKWKH
XSZHOOLQJ UDGLDQFH DQG WKH H[WUDWHUUHVWULDO LUUDGLDQFH DUH
PHDVXUHG E\ *20( 7KH VLJQDOV UHFRUGHG E\ *20( DUH
GXPSHGWRWKH(6$JURXQGVWDWLRQDW.LUXQD7KHVH GDWD DUH
SURFHVVHG IRU (6$ E\ WKH *20( 'DWD 3URFHVVRU DW WKH
*HUPDQ $WPRVSKHULF DQG 6SDFH 5HVHDUFK 3URFHVVLQJ DQG
$UFKLYLQJ&HQWHU'/53$&WKHUHVXOWDQWOHYHOSURGXFWV
72$5$' DQG (76,5 DQG OHYHO WRWDO R]RQH FROXPQ GDWD
SURGXFW DUH VXEVHTXHQWO\ EHLQJ GLVWULEXWHG WR WKH VFLHQWLILF
FRPPXQLW\
(56ZDVODXQFKHGRQWKH$SULOLQWRDVXQ
a) GOME: NO2 column: January 1997
b) GOME: NO2 column: April 1997
Max USA: 33.3
0
2
4
6
Max Europe: 41.5
8
10
12
14
Max Asia: 43.3
16
18
20 >22
c) GOME: NO2 column: July 1997
Max USA: 16.7
0
2
4
6
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
Max Europe: 16.7
10
12
14
Max Asia: 14.7
16
18
20 >22
d) GOME: NO2 column: October 1997
Max Europe: 13.0
8
Max USA: 21.3
Max Asia: 12.4
16
18
20 >22
Max USA: 18.4
0
2
4
NO2 (1.0e15 molecules/cm2)
6
8
Max Europe: 18.0
10
12
14
Max Asia: 16.4
16
18
20 >22
NO2 (1.0e15 molecules/cm2)
3ODWH0RQWKO\DYHUDJHGWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVDVGHULYHGIURP*20(PHDVXUHPHQWVIRUD-DQXDU\
E $SULO F -XO\ DQG G 2FWREHU 7KH PHDVXUHPHQWV DUH PDGH DURXQG /7 7KH JULG VKRZQ LV
ž[žDQGGHULYHGIURPERWKFORXG\DQGFORXGIUHHSL[HOV%ODQNSL[HOVLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHUHLVQRGDWD
7KHPD[LPXPYDOXHVWKDWRFFXURYHUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV(XURSHDQG$VLDLQDVLQJOHJULGFHOODUHJLYHQEHORZ
WKH SORWV 7KH PD[LPXP *20( 12 YDOXHV RQ WKH ,0$*(6 JULG DUH IRU 8QLWHG 6WDWHV
(XURSH$VLDIRU-DQXDU\IRU$SULOIRU-XO\DQGIRU2FWREHU
DOOLQ PROHFXOHVFP a) IMAGES: NO2 column: January
Max USA: 7.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Max Europe: 7.6
2.5
3.0
3.5
b) IMAGES: NO2 column: April
Max Asia: 3.6
4.0
4.5
5.0 >5.5
c) IMAGES: NO2 column: July
Max USA: 4.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
3.0
3.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Max Europe: 5.7
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Max Asia: 2.2
4.5
5.0 >5.5
d) IMAGES: NO2 column: October
Max Europe: 5.1
2.5
Max USA: 5.6
4.0
Max Asia: 2.0
4.5
5.0 >5.5
NO2 (1.0e+15 molecules/cm2)
Max USA: 6.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Max Europe: 7.2
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Max Asia: 2.6
4.5
5.0 >5.5
NO2 (1.0e+15 molecules/cm2)
3ODWH0RQWKO\DYHUDJHGWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVDVFDOFXODWHGE\,0$*(6IRUD-DQXDU\E$SULOF
-XO\DQGG2FWREHU'DWDFRUUHVSRQGWRa/77KHPD[LPXPYDOXHVWKDWRFFXURYHUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV
(XURSHDQG$VLDLQDVLQJOHJULGFHOODUHJLYHQEHORZWKHSORWV1RWHWKHFRORUVFDOHLVWLPHVVPDOOHUWKDQWKH
VFDOHXVHGIRUWKH*20(SORWVDQGWKHORZHVWOHYHOKDVEHHQOHIWEODQNWRREWDLQFOHDUHUSORWV
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
V\QFKURQRXV RUELW KDYLQJ DQ HTXDWRU FURVVLQJ WLPH RI DPLQDGHVFHQGLQJQRGH7KHVFDQVWUDWHJ\RI*20(\LHOGV
FRPSOHWHJOREDOFRYHUDJHDWWKHHTXDWRULQGD\V WKH VZDWK
ZLGWKRI*20(EHLQJ[NP IRUWKHDUUD\GHWHFWRUDQG
[NP IRUWKH30'VZKLFKDUHUHDGRXWWLPHVIDVWHU
WKDQ WKH DUUD\V 0RUH GHWDLOV DERXW WKH GHVLJQ DQG WKH ILUVW
UHVXOWV IURP *20( DUH SURYLGHG HOVHZKHUH >%XUURZV HW DO
DQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ@
8VLQJ WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO RSWLFDO DEVRUSWLRQ VSHFWURVFRS\
'2$6 WHFKQLTXH >HJ 3ODWW @ LW KDV SUHYLRXVO\ EHHQ
VKRZQWKDWWKHWRWDOFROXPQDPRXQWVRIR]RQH2 >%XUURZV
HWDOF@EURPLQHPRQR[LGH%U2 >+HJHOV HW DO 5LFKWHU HW DO :DJQHU DQG 3ODWW @ FKORULQH
GLR[LGH2&O2>%XUURZVHWDOF(LVLQJHUHWDO
:DJQHU HW DO %XUURZV HW DO @ IRUPDOGHK\GH
+&+2>%XUURZVHWDO@VXOIXUGLR[LGH62 >(LVLQJHU
DQG%XUURZVDQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ@QLWURJHQGLR[LGH
12 >%XUURZV HW DO F /HXH HW DO @ DQG ZDWHU
YDSRU+ 2>1RHOHWDO@PD\EHUHWULHYHGIURP*20(
LUUDGLDQFHDQGUDGLDQFHPHDVXUHPHQWV,QDGGLWLRQR]RQHDQG
DHURVRO SURILOHV PD\ DOVR EH UHWULHYHG >+RRJHQ HW DO DQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ@
,Q WKLV VWXG\ WKH '2$6 VSHFWUDO ZLQGRZ FKRVHQ IRU 12
UHWULHYDO IURP *20( LV QP >:DJQHU @
3UHIOLJKW PHDVXUHPHQWV RI WKH DEVRUSWLRQ FURVV VHFWLRQ RI
12 2 >%XUURZV HW DO D @ + 2 DQG 2 DQG
FDOFXODWLRQV RI DQ HIIHFWLYH 5LQJ VSHFWUXP >HJ %XVVHPHU
9RXQWDV HW DO @ VHUYH DV LQSXW IRU WKH UHWULHYDO
7KH 12 VODQW FROXPQ GHQVLWLHV GHULYHG E\ '2$6 DUH FRQ
YHUWHG LQWR WRWDO DWPRVSKHULF 12 YHUWLFDO FROXPQ GHQVLWLHV
9&'V E\ DSSO\LQJ D FDOFXODWHG DLU PDVV IDFWRU $0) IRU
HDFKREVHUYDWLRQ
7KH$0)GHVFULEHVWKHZHLJKWHGSDWKRIWKHOLJKWWKURXJK
WKHDWPRVSKHUHFRPSDUHGWRWKHYHUWLFDOSDWK,Q JHQHUDO WKH
$0) LV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH VRODU ]HQLWK DQJOH WKH VHOHFWHG
ZDYHOHQJWK LQWHUYDO WKH YHUWLFDO SURILOH RI 12 DPRXQWV RI
DHURVRO WKH VXUIDFH VSHFWUDO UHIOHFWDQFH RU DOEHGR WKH FORXG
FRYHUDQGDEVRUSWLRQE\WKHDWPRVSKHUH$0)VIRUWKLVVWXG\
KDYH EHHQ FDOFXODWHG ZLWK WKH UDGLDWLYH WUDQVSRUW PRGHOV
$0)75$1>0DUTXDUGHWDO@IRUWKHWRWDODWPRVSKHUH
DQG *20(75$1 >VHH 5R]DQRY HW DO @ IRU WKH WURSR
VSKHUH 7KH DOEHGR XVHG IRU $0) FDOFXODWLRQV LQ WKLV VWXG\
DUH WKRVH GHULYHG XVLQJ E\ FORXG IUHH VFHQHV DQG DQ DWPRV
SKHULFPRGHO>5LFKWHUDQG%XUURZV@
,Q RUGHU WR UHWULHYH WKH WURSRVSKHULF FROXPQ DPRXQWV RI
12 IURP*20(GDWDDSULRULNQRZOHGJHDERXWWKHEHKDYLRU
RIWKHVWUDWRVSKHULF12 LVUHTXLUHG,WLVDVVXPHGWKDWVWUDWR
VSKHULF 12 LV ORQJLWXGLQDOO\ KRPRJHQHRXV DQG WKH
WURSRVSKHULF 12 LQ WKH FOHDQ UHPRWH WURSRVSKHUH DERYH WKH
RFHDQ LV QHJOLJLEOH ,Q RQH DSSURDFK NQRZQ DV WKH WURSR
VSKHULF H[FHVV PHWKRG 7(0 >%XUURZV HW DO @
WURSRVSKHULF 12 LQ WKH FOHDQ UHPRWH WURSRVSKHUH RYHU WKH
RFHDQV DURXQG ƒ ORQJLWXGH LV DVVXPHG WR EH QHJOLJLEOH
$YHUDJHWKUHHGD\VZHHNO\PRQWKO\DQG\HDUO\JOREDOPDSV
FDQ WKHQ EH GHULYHG ,Q WKH 7(0 DSSURDFK WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI
FORXG FRYHU ZLWKLQ D VFHQH LV HVWLPDWHG XVLQJ WKH KLJKHU
VSDWLDOO\ UHVROYHG EURDG EDQG PHDVXUHPHQWV E\ D WKUHVKROG
DOJRULWKP>%XUURZVHWDOE@,QWKLVPDQQHUFRPSRVLWH
PDSV W\SLFDOO\ EHWZHHQ ƒ1 DQG ƒ6 VKRZLQJ WKH WURSR
VSKHULFFROXPQRI12 IRUGLIIHUHQWSHUFHQWDJHVRIFORXGVFDQ
EHREWDLQHG
5HWULHYDO$OJRULWKPIRU7URSRVSKHULF12
,PDJHSURFHVVLQJ WHFKQLTXHV ,37 DSSOLHG WR GD\
FRPSRVLWH LPDJHV RI WKH *20( 12 REVHUYDWLRQ KDV EHHQ
XVHGH[WHQVLYHO\LQWKLVVWXG\3ODWHLOOXVWUDWHVVFKHPDWLFDOO\
WKH LQGLYLGXDO ,37 VWHSV XVHG WR GLVFULPLQDWH EHWZHHQ WKH
VWUDWRVSKHULF DQG WURSRVSKHULF FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH WRWDO 12
9&'V )RU WKH PDULQH UHJLRQV WKH IROORZLQJ SURFHGXUH ZDV
XVHG )LUVW WKH FRQWLQHQWV SOXV D EDQG a NP RII VKRUH LV
PDVNHG RXW WR DYRLG UHJLRQV RI 12 HPLVVLRQV RQ DQG QHDU
FRDVWOLQHV 7KH VWUDWRVSKHULF FROXPQ RI 12 9&'V LV
DVVXPHG WR GRPLQDWH WKH UHVXOWDQW UHJLRQ $ QRUPDOL]HG
FRQYROXWLRQLVWKHQDSSOLHGWRWKHGDWDVHH-lKQHHWDO>@
IRUGHWDLOVHQDEOLQJWKHJOREDOVWUDWRVSKHULF12 GLVWULEXWLRQ
WR EH LQIHUUHG )RU WKH ,37 DOJRULWKP PDULQH 12
PHDVXUHPHQWV IRU FOHDU VN\ FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH VHOHFWHG IRU
ZKLFK UDGLDWLYH WUDQVSRUW FDOFXODWLRQV FDQ EH SHUIRUPHG YHU\
SUHFLVHO\)RUWKLVVHOHFWLRQWKHFORXGIUDFWLRQLVGHULYHGIURP
WKHRQERDUGRSHUDWHG30'LQVWUXPHQWDVGHVFULEHGE\:HQLJ
HWDO>@
3ODWH E VKRZV WKH ³,37 VWUDWRVSKHULF EDFNJURXQG´ WKXV
GHULYHG 7KH UHVXOWLQJ WURSRVSKHULF 12 9&'V ZHUH WKHQ
REWDLQHG IURP WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WRWDO DWPRVSKHULF DQG
LQIHUUHGVWUDWRVSKHULF12 9&'V$PRUHGHWDLOHGGHVFULSWLRQ
RI WKH ,37 UHWULHYDO RI WURSRVSKHULF 12 9&' IURP WKH WRWDO
DWPRVSKHULF 12 FDQ EH IRXQG LQ WKH ZRUNV RI /HXH >@
/HXHHWDO>@DQG5LFKWHUDQG%XUURZV>@
,Q WKH ,37 DOJRULWKP WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH WRWDO
6&' DQG WKH VWUDWRVSKHULF 12 VODQW FROXPQ GHQVLWLHV
6&' LV DWWULEXWHG WR WURSRVSKHULF 12 7KH WURSRVSKHULF
12 9&'VDUHWKHQFRPSXWHG
WRWDO
VWUDW
9&'
6&'
WURS
±6&'
WRWDO
$0)
VWUDW
WURS
7KH WURSRVSKHULF DLU PDVV IDFWRUV $0) ZHUH GHULYHG
XVLQJ WKH UDGLDWLYH WUDQVIHU PRGHO *20(75$1 >5R]DQRY HW
DO@DVVXPLQJDZHOOPL[HGERXQGDU\ OD\HU RI DYHUDJH
KHLJKW NP FRQWDLQLQJ WKH HQWLUH WURSRVSKHULF 12 OD\HU
DQ DYHUDJH VXUIDFH DOEHGR EHLQJ DQG D PDULWLPH DHURVRO
GLVWULEXWLRQDVVXPHGWREHORFDWHGLQWKHERXQGDU\OD\HU
,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHUHVXOWVRIWKH,37DOJRULWKPDUH
LQJRRGDJUHHPHQWZLWKWKRVHRIDQRWKHUDSSURDFKNQRZQDV
WKH WURSRVSKHULF H[FHVV PHWKRG 7(0 >%XUURZV HW DO
F 5LFKWHU DQG %XUURZV @ 7KH PDLQ GLIIHU
HQFH EHWZHHQ 7(0 DQG ,37 LV WKDW LQ WKH 7(0 DOJRULWKP
FORXG IUHH SL[HOV DUH VHOHFWHG ZKLOH LQ WKH ,37 DOJRULWKP DOO
SL[HOV DUH XVHG DQG FORXG HIIHFWV DUH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW D
SRVWHULRUL %HFDXVH D FORXG WKUHVKROG YDOXH LV XVHG LQ WKH
7(0 DQDO\VLV WKH UHVLGXDO FORXG FRQWDPLQDWLRQ ZLOO OHDG WR
DQXQGHUHVWLPDWLRQRIWURSRVSKHULF12 WURS
*20(¶V6HQVLWLYLW\WR%RXQGDU\/D\HU12
2EVHUYDWLRQV
7KH UHODWLYH SHQHWUDWLRQ RI SKRWRQV LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU
DVREVHUYHGDWWKHWRSRIWKHDWPRVSKHUHGHSHQGVVWURQJO\RQ
IDFWRUVLQFOXGLQJWKHFORXGFRYHUVXUIDFHVSHFWUDOUHIOHFWDQFH
DOEHGR DQG WURSRVSKHULF DHURVRO ORDGLQJ 7KXV WKH ZHLJKW
LQJRIWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVHQVLWLYLW\WRWKHORZHVWOHYHOVLQWKH
WURSRVSKHUH LV D VWURQJ IXQFWLRQ RI WKH ZDYHOHQJWK DQG
YLHZLQJFRQGLWLRQV7KLVUHVXOWVLQDYDULDEOHVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKH
UHWULHYHG '2$6 12 DEVRUSWLRQ WR WKH 12 LQ WKH ORZHVW
OD\HURIWKHDWPRVSKHUHWKHERXQGDU\OD\HU)RUH[DPSOHFDO
FXODWLRQV XVLQJ *20(75$1 VKRZ WKDW IRU FORXG IUHH
FRQGLWLRQV DQG RYHUKHDG VXQ URXJKO\ RI WKH LQFRPLQJ
VRODU SKRWRQV DW QP DUH EDFNVFDWWHUHG E\ DWPRVSKHULF
PROHFXOHVEHIRUHUHDFKLQJWKHVXUIDFH7KHEDFNVFDWWHULQJE\
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
1.4
1.2
Air mass factor
1.0
LV UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH DLU PDVV IDFWRU )LJXUH ZKLFK LV VPDOO
DQGQHDUO\LQGHSHQGHQWRIVRODU]HQLWKDQJOHVEHORZƒ
2XU $0) FDOFXODWLRQV DOVR VKRZ WKDW VWURQJO\ DEVRUELQJ
DHURVROV ORFDWHG LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU IXUWKHU REVFXUH WKH
YLVLELOLW\RIERXQGDU\OD\HU12 IRUVSDFHERUQHREVHUYDWLRQV
0XOWLSOH 0LH VFDWWHULQJ E\ DHURVRO RU FORXG SDUWLFOHV
KRZHYHUFDQDOVRLQFUHDVHWKHWURSRVSKHULFDEVRUSWLRQGXHWR
LQFUHDVLQJRSWLFDOSDWKOHQJWK7KH$0)GHSHQGVVWURQJO\RQ
WKH VXUIDFH VSHFWUDO UHIOHFWDQFH IRU H[DPSOH LQFUHDVLQJ WKH
VXUIDFHVSHFWUDOUHIOHFWDQFHIURPWRLQFUHDVHVWKHWURSR
VSKHULF$0)E\a
2SWLFDOO\ WKLFN FORXGV HIIHFWLYHO\ REVFXUH WURSRVSKHULF
12 ORFDWHG EHORZ WKH FORXG WRS EHFDXVH WKH\ DFW DV KLJKO\
UHIOHFWLQJVXUIDFHVKDYLQJW\SLFDOO\DQDOEHGRLQWKHUDQJH
>.XURVX HW DO @ $V D UHVXOW RI WKHLU EULJKWQHVV
HYHQ D VPDOO FORXG IUDFWLRQ ZLWKLQ D *20( SL[HO PD\ FRQ
WULEXWH VLJQLILFDQWO\ WR WKH VLJQDO UHFHLYHG E\ WKH LQVWUXPHQW
GHFUHDVLQJ WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ WRZDUG WKH GHWHFWLRQ RI ERXQGDU\
OD\HU12 EXWLQFUHDVLQJWKHUHODWLYHZHLJKWLQJRI12 DERYH
WKHFORXGWRWKDWRIWKHIUHHWURSRVSKHUHRUVWUDWRVSKHUH
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
15
30
45
60
75
Solar zenith angle (deg.)
90
105
)LJXUH$LUPDVVIDFWRURI12 IRUDERXQGDU\OD\HURI
NPDWDZDYHOHQJWKRIQPDVVXPLQJ DQ DOEHGR RI DQGDPDULWLPHDHURVROOD\HULQWKHERXQGDU\OD\HU
DHURVROYDULHVLQWKHUDQJHRIDQGLVGHSHQGHQWRQW\SH
DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ $V D UHVXOW RI WKLV VHQVLWLYLW\ WR WKH VXUIDFH
VSHFWUDO UHIOHFWDQFH DOEHGR LQ WKH EOXH VSHFWUDO UDQJH a
RIWKHUHPDLQLQJRIWKHWRWDOLQFRPLQJSKRWRQVDUH
UHIOHFWHG IURP QRQVQRZ FRYHUHG ODQG VXUIDFHV DQG IURPWKHRFHDQV>5LFKWHUDQG %XUURZV @ 7KLV EHKDYLRU
a) MOZART: NO2 column: January
Max USA: 18.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Max Europe: 16.4
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Max Europe: 13.4
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
(VWLPDWLRQRIWKH7RWDO12&ROXPQ
,Q WKLV VWXG\ LQ RUGHU WR HVWLPDWH WKH WRWDO WURSRVSKHULF
12 9&'DOO*20(REVHUYDWLRQVLQFOXGLQJDOVRWKHFORXG\
UHJLRQVZHUHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW7KLVSURFHGXUHHQKDQFHVWKH
b) MOZART: NO2 column: April
Max Asia: 8.1
9.0 10.0 >11.0
c) MOZART: NO2 column: July
Max USA: 13.5
Max USA: 14.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Max Europe: 10.7
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Max Asia: 7.4
9.0 10.0 >11.0
d) MOZART: NO2 column: October
Max Asia: 4.6
9.0 10.0 >11.0
NO2 (1.0e+15 molecules/cm2)
Max USA: 16.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Max Europe: 19.3
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Max Asia: 6.6
9.0 10.0 >11.0
NO2 (1.0e+15 molecules/cm2)
3ODWH0RQWKO\DYHUDJHGWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVDVFDOFXODWHGE\02=$57IRUD-DQXDU\E $SULO
F -XO\ DQG G 2FWREHU 'DWD VKRZQ FRUUHVSRQG WR a /7 7KH PD[LPXP YDOXHV WKDW RFFXU RYHU WKH
8QLWHG6WDWHV(XURSHDQG$VLDLQDVLQJOHJULGFHOODUHJLYHQEHORZWKHSORWV1RWHWKHFRORUVFDOHLVWLPHV
VPDOOHUWKDQWKHVFDOHXVHGIRUWKH*20(SORWVDQGWKHORZHVWOHYHOKDVEHHQOHIWEODQNWRREWDLQFOHDUHU
SORWV
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
WRWDO QXPEHU RI FRQVLGHUHG PHDVXUHPHQWV EXW UHTXLUHV D
FRUUHFWLRQ IRU WKH HIIHFWV RI FORXGV RQ WKH UHWULHYHG
WURSRVSKHULF 12 :KLOH LQ SULQFLSOH WKLV FDQ EH GRQH IRU
LQGLYLGXDO *20( PHDVXUHPHQWV ZH KHUH DSSO\ DQ DYHUDJH
FRUUHFWLRQ IRU PRQWKO\ DYHUDJHG *20( PHDVXUHPHQWV RI
WURSRVSKHULF 12 7KLV DSSURDFK ZDV FKRVHQ LQ RUGHU WR
UHGXFH WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH FRUUHFWLRQ SURFHGXUH ,Q
DGGLWLRQ WKHUH DUH VWLOO FRQVLGHUDEOH XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH
GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO FORXG IUDFWLRQV XVLQJ FXUUHQW
PHWKRGV
7KHDYHUDJHFRUUHFWLRQDSSOLHGKHUHPDNHVXVHRIDVVXPS
WLRQVRIFORXGIUDFWLRQDQGDOEHGRZKLFKDUHGHVFULEHGEHORZ
7KH\DUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKFRQGLWLRQVRYHU12 VRXUFHUHJLRQV
LQFOXGLQJ LQ SDUWLFXODU LQGXVWULDOL]HG UHJLRQV EXW DUH FRQVLG
HUHG WR LQDSSURSULDWH WR RWKHU UHJLRQV HJ GHVHUWV RU VQRZ
FRYHUHGUHJLRQV7KXVWKHFRPSDULVRQVLQWKLVVWXG\IRFXVRQ
*20( WURSRVSKHULF FROXPQV RI 12 DQG WKH PRGHO UHVXOWV
IRUUHJLRQVZKHUHWKHDERYHDVVXPSWLRQVDUHYDOLG
)URP *20( PHDVXUHPHQWV LW WXUQHG RXW WKDW WKH WRWDO
DWPRVSKHULF UHIOHFWDQFH LQFOXGLQJ VFDWWHULQJ RQ WKH VXUIDFH
DQGRQDHURVROVDQGPROHFXOHVLVaDWQPZKHUHDV
WKHDOEHGRDERYHFORXGVLVHTXDOWRRUJUHDWHUWKDQ7KXV
WKH JHRPHWULF FORXG IUDFWLRQ KDV WR EH ZHLJKWHG E\ WKHVH
UHODWLYH LQWHQVLWLHV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ RI *20( IRU
WKH WURSRVSKHUH DVVXPLQJ WKDW WKH WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQ
LV HQWLUHO\ EHORZ WKH FORXGV )RU D JHRPHWULF FORXG IUDFWLRQ
RI WKH UHODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH FOHDU VN\ SDUW RI WKH
*20( SL[HO WR WKH WRWDO PHDVXUHG VLJQDO LV a 7KXV WKH
UHVSHFWLYH WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQ GHQVLW\ KDV WR EH
FRUUHFWHG E\ DERXW D IDFWRU RI )RU D JHRPHWULF FORXG
IUDFWLRQRIWKHUHODWLYHFRQWULEXWLRQRI WKH FOHDU VN\
SDUWWRWKHWRWDOVLJQDOLVaUHVXOWLQJLQFRUUHFWLRQ
IDFWRURIa$VVXPLQJD*DXVVLDQIUHTXHQF\GLVWULEX
WLRQRIWKHJHRPHWULFFORXGIUDFWLRQVRI*20(JURXQGSL[HOV
ZLWK D PD[LPXP DW D FORXG IUDFWLRQ RI DQG D VWDQGDUG
GHYLDWLRQRIZHWKHQGHULYHDQDYHUDJHFRUUHFWLRQIDFWRU
RIDERXWZKLFKZDVDSSOLHGWRWURSRVSKHULF12 GHULYHGE\
WKH,37DOJRULWKPLQFOXGLQJDOOWKHFORXG\SL[HOV1RFRUUHF
WLRQIDFWRUZDVDSSOLHGWRWKH6DKDUDQ$UDELDQ3HQLQVXODDQG
$XVWUDOLDQ GHVHUWV VLQFH WKHVH DUHDV DUH DOPRVW DOZD\V FORXG
IUHH
,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHDVVXPHGIUHTXHQF\GLVWULEXWLRQ
RI WKH FORXG IUDFWLRQV IRU *20( JURXQG SL[HOV LV VRPHZKDW
DUELWUDU\EXWVKRXOGSURYLGHVXLWDEOHYDOXHVIRUPDQ\SDUWVRI
WKHZRUOGLQFOXGLQJHJLQGXVWULDOL]HGUHJLRQV)XWXUHZRUN
ZLOO \LHOG PRUH SUHFLVH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ VWDWLVWLFV RI *20(
FORXG IUDFWLRQV IURP LPSURYHG *20( FORXG GHWHUPLQDWLRQ
DOJRULWKPV
&RPSDULQJ WKH 7(0 12 9&' IRU DOO VFHQHV ZLWK WKRVH
KDYLQJFORXGFRYHULQGLFDWHVWKDWWKH7(012 9&'LV
W\SLFDOO\ D IDFWRU RI ODUJHU IRU WKH FDVH WKDQ RYHU
LQGXVWULDO VRXUFH UHJLRQV ZKHUH WKH PDMRULW\ RI 12 LV
HPLWWHG7KHVHILQGLQJVDUHLQIDLUDJUHHPHQWZLWKWKHDYHUDJH
FORXGFRUUHFWLRQDSSOLHGWRWKH12 GDWDGHULYHGIURPWKH,37
DOJRULWKPDVGHVFULEHGDERYH
7KH XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ WKH WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQV IURP
*20( GHSHQGV PDLQO\ RQ IRXU IDFWRUV 7KH SUHFLVLRQ RI
WKH12 '2$6ILWZKLFKLVOLPLWHGE\SKRWRQDQGHOHFWURQLF
QRLVHDQGFDQEHFRPHUHODWLYHO\ODUJHIRUDVLQJOHREVHUYDWLRQ
1HYHUWKHOHVVIRUPRQWKO\DYHUDJHGYDOXHVWKLVHUURUGHFUHDVHV
WR YHU\ VPDOO YDOXHV “ DQG FDQ WKXV EH QHJOHFWHG 6\VWHPDWLFHUURUVLQWKH12 '2$6ILWFDXVHGIRUH[DPSOH
E\XQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHZDYHOHQJWKFDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHUHIHUHQFH
VSHFWUDGRQRWGHFUHDVHLIVHYHUDOREVHUYDWLRQVDUHDYHUDJHG
+RZHYHU E\ VXEWUDFWLQJ WKH VWUDWRVSKHULF FROXPQ IURP WKH
WRWDOFROXPQPRVWRIWKHSRVVLEOHV\VWHPDWLFHUURUVFDQFHORXW
WKH UHPDLQLQJ V\VWHPDWLF HUURU LV HVWLPDWHG WR EH “ 7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWXQFHUWDLQWLHVFRPHIURPWKHPRGHOLQJRI
WKHWURSRVSKHULF$0)V7KHODFNRISUHFLVHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXW
WKH JURXQG DOEHGR DQG WKH WURSRVSKHULF 12 KHLJKW SURILOH
FDXVHHUURUVLQWKHFDOFXODWHGWURSRVSKHULF12 9&'V ZKLFK
FDQ EH XS WR a IRU D VLQJOH REVHUYDWLRQ )RU PRQWKO\
DYHUDJHVWKHVHHUURUVSDUWO\FDQFHORXWOHDYLQJDQXQFHUWDLQW\
RIa7KHXQFHUWDLQWLHVFDXVHGE\FORXGVFRQVWLWXWHWKH
ODUJHVW FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH HUURU )RU D VLQJOH REVHUYDWLRQ LW
PLJKWEHXSWRa)RUWKHPRQWKO\DYHUDJHVWKHVHHUURUV
SDUWO\FDQFHORXWZHHVWLPDWHWKHUHPDLQLQJXQFHUWDLQW\WREH
a 7KLV ODVW XQFHUWDLQW\ GRPLQDWHV WKH WRWDO HUURU LQ WKH
UHWULHYHGWURSRVSKHULF12 9&'V
0RQWKO\$YHUDJHG12&ROXPQ$PRXQWVIRU
3ODWH VKRZV WKH LQIHUUHG WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQV
9&'VIRUWKHPRQWKVRI-DQXDU\$SULO-XO\DQG2FWREHU
LQ $V H[SHFWHG WKH KLJKHVW 12 FROXPQV RFFXU RYHU
LQGXVWULDOL]HG DUHDV LQ WKH 1RUWKHUQ $PHULFD (XURSH DQG
&KLQDEXWKRWVSRWVKDYLQJORFDOL]HGSROOXWLRQLQ6RXWK$IULFD
WKH$UDELDQ3HQLQVXODDQG-DSDQDUHDOVRFOHDUO\GLVFHUQDEOH
(QKDQFHG WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQV DOVR RFFXU LQ NQRZQ
UHJLRQV RI ELRPDVV EXUQLQJ DQG VDYDQQDK ILUHV LQ 6RXWK
$PHULFD $IULFD DQG ,QGRQHVLD -XO\ DQG 2FWREHU 0XFK
ORZHU 12 FROXPQV DUH REVHUYHG IRU UHPRWH FRQWLQHQWDO
UHJLRQV LQ $XVWUDOLD RU WKH 6DKDUD GHVHUW 7KH LQIHUUHG
WURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVIRUWKHUHPRWHRFHDQVDUHFORVHWR
]HUR PDLQO\ EHFDXVH IRU WKLV DUHD WKH WRWDO DWPRVSKHULF 12
FROXPQZDVDVVXPHGWREHPRVWO\ORFDWHGLQWKHVWUDWRVSKHUH
VHH DERYH ,Q -DQXDU\ WKH PD[LPXP 12 FROXPQV IRU WKH
HDVWHUQ8QLWHG6WDWHVZHVWHUQ(XURSHDQGHDVWHUQ&KLQDDUH
WZLFH DV ODUJH DV LQ WKH RWKHU PRQWKV LH [ PROHFXOHV FP YHUVXV Â [ PROHFXOHV FP 7KH
ODUJHUZLQWHUYDOXHVOLNHO\UHVXOWIURPDGHFUHDVHGORVVRI12
E\UHDFWLRQZLWK2+WKHPDMRU12 ORVVSURFHVVLQWKHORZHU
WURSRVSKHUH FRQILQHPHQW LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU UHGXFHG
YHUWLFDO WUDQVSRUW IURP WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU WR WKH IUHH WURSR
VSKHUHDQGVOLJKWO\LQFUHDVHGVRXUFHVWUHQJWKV
[
'HVFULSWLRQRIWKH0RGHOV
,0$*(6
7KH,0$*(6PRGHO>0OOHUDQG%UDVVHXU3KDPHW
DO *UDQLHU HW DO D E@ LV D
WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO JOREDO FKHPLVWU\ WUDQVSRUW PRGHO WKDW
FDOFXODWHVPRQWKO\DYHUDJHGGLVWULEXWLRQVRIVRPHVSHFLHV
,WKDVDKRUL]RQWDOUHVROXWLRQRIž[žDQGLQFOXGHVOHYHOV
LQWKHYHUWLFDOH[WHQGLQJIURPWKHVXUIDFHWRK3DaNP
7KH G\QDPLFV LV JRYHUQHG E\ SUHVFULEHG PRQWKO\ DYHUDJHG
WUDQVSRUW DQG WHPSHUDWXUH ILHOGV 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI FORXGV
DQG SUHFLSLWDWLRQ UDWHV DUH DOVR SUHVFULEHG DFFRUGLQJ WR
PRQWKO\ DYHUDJHG FOLPDWRORJLFDO YDOXHV 7KH UDSLG WXUEXOHQW
H[FKDQJHV LQ WKH SODQHWDU\ ERXQGDU\ OD\HU DUH SDUDPHWHUL]HG
XVLQJDGLIIXVLRQFRHIILFLHQWGHSHQGLQJRQWKHYHUWLFDO JUDGL
HQWRISRWHQWLDOWHPSHUDWXUH7KHFRHIILFLHQWVUHSUHVHQWLQJWKLV
GLIIXVLRQFRHIILFLHQWDUHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJPRQWKO\PHDQ WHP
SHUDWXUHGDWD
7KHFKHPLFDOVFKHPHLQWKHPRGHOLVDGDSWHGIURP0OOHU
DQG %UDVVHXU >@ DQG LWV FXUUHQW YHUVLRQ LV JLYHQ E\
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
*UDQLHU HW DO >E@ 7KH FKHPLVWU\ LQFOXGHV DQ H[SOLFLW
GHVFULSWLRQRIQRQPHWKDQH K\GURFDUERQV FKHPLVWU\ LQFOXGLQJ
WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI SHUR[\DFHW\O QLWUDWH 3$1 LPSRUWDQW IRU
WKH WUDQVSRUW RI UHDFWLYH QLWURJHQ IURP VRXUFH UHJLRQV WR WKH
IUHH WURSRVSKHUH >0R[LP HW DO +RURZLW] DQG -DFRE
@7KHUHDFWLRQUDWHVDUHIURP'H0RUHHWDO>@7KH
DQWKURSRJHQLFHPLVVLRQVDUHIURPWKH('*$5HPLVVLRQGDWD
EDVH >2OLYLHU HW DO @ ZKLFK LV GHYHORSHG LQ FORVH
FRRSHUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH *OREDO (PLVVLRQV ,QYHQWRU\ $FWLYLW\
*(,$ RI WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO *OREDO $WPRVSKHULF
&KHPLVWU\,QWHUQDWLRQDO *HRVSKHUH%LRVSKHUH 3URJUDPPH
,*$&,*%3>VHHDOVR*UDQLHUHWDOE@7KHVHHPLVVLRQV
DUHVSHFLILHGRQDž[žJOREDOUHVROXWLRQIRU&+ 12 &2
DQG QRQPHWKDQH K\GURFDUERQV 7KH\ LQFOXGH HPLVVLRQV IURP
IRVVLO IXHO XVH LQGXVWU\ WUDQVSRUW IXHO SURGXFWLRQ DQG
WUDQVPLVVLRQ ELRIXHO FRPEXVWLRQ LQGXVWULDO SURFHVVHV DQG
VROYHQW XVH ZDVWH WUHDWPHQW DQG DJULFXOWXUDO ZDVWH EXUQLQJ
$ VHDVRQDO YDULDWLRQ LV LPSRVHG RQ WKH DQWKURSRJHQLF HPLV
VLRQVDFFRUGLQJWR0OOHU>@%LRPDVVEXUQLQJHPLVVLRQV
DUHWDNHQIURP*UDQLHUHWDO>D@EDVHGRQLQYHQWRULHVE\
+DRDQG/LX>@7KHSURGXFWLRQRIQLWULFR[LGHE\OLJKW
QLQJ GLVFKDUJHV LV GLVWULEXWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH IODVK
IUHTXHQFLHVREWDLQHGIURPVDWHOOLWHPHDVXUHPHQWVDV UHSRUWHG
E\ 7XUPDQ DQG (GJDU >@ 7RWDO HPLVVLRQ RI 12 IURP
OLJKWQLQJLVDVVXPHGWREH7J1\U
,0$*(6FDOFXODWHVDIXOO GLXUQDO F\FOH LQ WKH ILUVW GD\V
RIWKHPRQWKZLWKWLPHVWHSVRIKRXUIRUWKHILUVWGD\VDQG
D WLPH VWHS RI KRXU IRU WKH WKLUG GD\ )RU WKH UHVW RI WKH
PRQWK GLXUQDO DYHUDJH YDOXHV DUH FDOFXODWHG DQG D WLPH VWHS
RIKRXUVLVXVHG
[
02=$57
7KH 02=$57 PRGHO LV D QHZ YHUVLRQ RI WKH PRGHO
GHVFULEHG E\ %UDVVHXU HW DO >@ DQG +DXJOXVWDLQH HW DO
>@ ,W LV D WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO JOREDO FKHPLVWU\ WUDQVSRUW
PRGHO ZKLFK FDQ FDOFXODWH WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI a VSHFLHV
ZLWKDPLQWLPHVWHS,WKDVDKRUL]RQWDOUHVROXWLRQRIž
[žDQGOHYHOVLQWKHYHUWLFDOH[WHQGLQJIURPWKHVXUIDFH
WRK3DaNP7KHPHWHRURORJLFDOSDUDPHWHUVQHHGHGWR
FDOFXODWHWKHDGYHFWLYHWUDQVSRUWVPDOOHUVFDOHH[FKDQJHVDQG
ZHWVFDYHQJLQJRIORQJOLYHGFKHPLFDOVSHFLHVDUHSUHVFULEHG
DQG WDNHQ IURP WKH RXWSXW RI WKH PLGGOH DWPRVSKHUH YHUVLRQ
RI WKH 1DWLRQDO &HQWHU RI $WPRVSKHULF 5HVHDUFK 1&$5
FRPPXQLW\ FOLPDWH PRGHO &&0 DQG DUH XSGDWHG HYHU\ KRXUV 7KH SDUDPHWHUL]DWLRQ RI H[FKDQJHV LQ WKH ERXQGDU\
OD\HU LV EDVHG RQ +ROWVODJ DQG %RYLOOH >@ DQG XVHV D
YHUWLFDO HGG\ IOX[ SURSRUWLRQDO WR DQ HGG\ GLIIXVLRQ
FRHIILFLHQW 7KH ODWWHU GHSHQGV RQ D WXUEXOHQW YHORFLW\ VFDOH
DQG RQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU KHLJKW 5LFKDUGVRQ QXPEHU
GHSHQGHQW $ FRXQWHUJUDGLHQW WHUP UHSUHVHQWLQJ QRQORFDO
WUDQVSRUW DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK GU\ ERXQGDU\ OD\HU FRQYHFWLRQ LV
DOVRWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW
7KHFKHPLFDOVFKHPHLQWKH PRGHO LV WKH VDPH DV WKH RQH
XVHGLQ,0$*(6>*UDQLHUHWDOE@ZLWKUHDFWLRQUDWHV
IURP'H0RUHHWDO>@7KHHPLVVLRQVRI&+ &212[
DQGK\GURFDUERQVDUHWKHVDPHDVWKRVHXVHGLQ,0$*(6VHH
VHFWLRQ7KHSURGXFWLRQRI12E\OLJKWQLQJLVGLVWULEXWHG
DVDIXQFWLRQRIVSDFHDQGVHDVRQDFFRUGLQJWRWKHORFDWLRQRI
FRQYHFWLYH FORXGV DV SURYLGHG E\ WKH JHQHUDO FLUFXODWLRQ
PRGHO DQG WKH KHLJKW RI WKH WRS RI FRQYHFWLYH FORXGV DV
IRUPXODWHG E\ 3ULFH DQG 5LQG >@ $V IRU WKH ,0$*(6
PRGHO WKH JOREDO SURGXFWLRQ RI 12 IURP OLJKWQLQJ LV
DVVXPHG WR EH 7J 1\U )RU RXU FDOFXODWLRQV RQO\ GLXUQDO
DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI 12 ZHUH VWRUHG FDOFXODWHG IURP
WKHPL[LQJUDWLRVDWHYHU\PLQWLPHVWHS7KHLQWHUPHGLDWH
GDWDZHUHQRWVDYHGVHSDUDWHO\
0RGHOHG12&ROXPQ
,Q WKH 3ODWHV DQG WKH PRGHOHG WURSRVSKHULF 12
FROXPQV YHUWLFDO FROXPQ GHQVLWLHV FDOFXODWHG E\ WKH
,0$*(6 DQG 02=$57 PRGHOV UHVSHFWLYHO\ DUH VKRZQ
3ODWHV DQG FDQ EH FRPSDUHG ZLWK 3ODWH VKRZLQJ WKH
*20(12 FROXPQV7RREWDLQDFOHDUHU SLFWXUH WKH ORZHVW
OHYHOVRU[ PROHFXOHVFP DUHOHIWEODQN7KH
PRGHOHG WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQV DUH REWDLQHG IURP WKH
FDOFXODWHG 12 PL[LQJ UDWLRV E\ LQWHJUDWLQJ IURP WKH VXUIDFH
WRWKHWURSRSDXVH
*20( LV LQ D 6XQ V\QFKURQRXV RUELW ,W SDVVHV RYHU WKH
HTXDWRU DW ORFDO WLPH /7 DQG FRYHUV DOO ORQJLWXGHV DW
WKHHTXDWRULQGD\V7RDJUHHDVFORVHO\DVSRVVLEOHZLWKWKH
ORFDORYHUSDVVWLPHRI*20(WKH12 FROXPQVDVFDOFXODWHG
E\,0$*(6FRUUHVSRQGZLWKDORFDOWLPHEHWZHHQ DQG
/77KH\DUHGHULYHGE\FDOFXODWLQJWKHUDWLRRIWKH12
FRQFHQWUDWLRQDWa/7DQGWKHGLXUQDODYHUDJHFRQFHQWUD
WLRQV LQ WKH IXOO GLXUQDO F\FOH RI WKH PRGHO 7KH GLXUQDO
DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH PLGGOH RI WKH PRQWK LV WKHQ
PXOWLSOLHGE\WKLVUDWLR'HWDLOVDERXWWKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ
WKHFROXPQQHDU/7DQGWKHGLXUQDODYHUDJHDUHGLVFXV
VHG LQ VHFWLRQ DQG 3ODWH )RU WKH 02=$57 FDOFXODWLRQV
RQO\ GLXUQDO DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI 12 ZHUH VWRUHG QR
KRXUO\ GDWD 7R FDOFXODWH WKH 12 FROXPQ DPRXQWV IURP
02=$57 DW WKH *20( RYHUSDVV WLPH ZH XVHG WKH UHVXOWV
IURP WKH ,0$*(6 PRGHO WR FDOFXODWH WKH UDWLR EHWZHHQ WKH
WURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVDW/7DQGWKHGLXUQDODYHUDJH
FROXPQV 7KLV UDWLR ZDV WKHQ XVHG RQ D PRQWKO\ EDVLV WR
FDOFXODWH WKH FROXPQV DW /7 IRU WKH 02=$57
FDOFXODWLRQV
7KH 12[ HPLVVLRQV LQ WKH PRGHO FDOFXODWLRQV DUH PRQWKO\
RU \HDUO\ DYHUDJHV 'LXUQDO YDULDWLRQV DUH QRW WDNHQ LQWR
DFFRXQW$ERXWRIWKHJOREDO12[HPLVVLRQVFRPHIURP
URDGWUDQVSRUW(VSHFLDOO\LQDQGDURXQGWKHELJJHUFLWLHVURDG
WUDQVSRUW H[KLELWV D VWURQJ GLXUQDO YDULDWLRQ 'XULQJ WKH
PRUQLQJ UXVK KRXUV ODUJHU HPLVVLRQV RI 12[ DUH H[SHFWHG
ZKLFK PD\ DIIHFW WKH 12 FROXPQ DW WKH *20( RYHUSDVV
WLPH /7 :H KDYH SHUIRUPHG D FDOFXODWLRQ ZLWK
,0$*(6XVLQJDGLXUQDOYDULDWLRQLQWKH12[HPLVVLRQVIURP
URDG WUDQVSRUW DFFRUGLQJ WR 'UHKHU DQG +DUOH\ >@ 7KH
HIIHFW RI D GLXUQDO YDULDWLRQ LQ 12 HPLVVLRQV YHUVXV D
FRQVWDQW HPLVVLRQ RQ WKH WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQ ZDV
IRXQG WR EH VPDOO ZLWK YHU\ ORFDO LQFUHDVHV DURXQG /RV
$QJHOHV RI a LQ WKH HDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV QRUWKZHVWHUQ(XURSHDQG-DSDQaDQQXDODYHUDJHV
*ULG6L]HVDQG0HWKRGRI&DOFXODWLRQ
%HIRUH FRPSDULQJ WKH PRGHOHG 12 FROXPQV ZLWK WKH
*20( PHDVXUHPHQWV WKH HIIHFW RI WKH GLIIHUHQW JULG VL]HV
KDV WR EH FRQVLGHUHG ,Q 3ODWHV D DQG E WKH *20( 12
FROXPQVDUHVKRZQPDSSHGRQWRWKH,0$*(6DQG02=$57
JULGV 7KLV VPRRWKHV WKH SORWV DQG UHPRYHV WKH VPDOO YHU\
ORFDOL]HG VSRWV ZLWK KLJK 12 FROXPQV RYHU LQGXVWULDOL]HG
DUHDV,Q3ODWHWKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ DQQXDO DYHUDJHG PRGHOHG
12 FROXPQVDUHDOVRVKRZQ,QWKHPLGGOHSDQHOVWKHWURSR
VSKHULFFROXPQVDUHFDOFXODWHGE\LQWHJUDWLQJIURPWKHVXUIDFH
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
WRWKHWURSRSDXVHZKLOHLQWKHORZHUSDQHOVDVLPLODUPHWKRG
DVIRUWKH*20(FROXPQVLVDSSOLHGLHVXEWUDFWLQJWKH12
FROXPQ RYHU WKH 3DFLILF DURXQG ƒ: IURP WKH 12
FROXPQDWDOOORQJLWXGHV7KHODWWHUSURFHGXUHLVSHUIRUPHGRQ
DPRQWKO\EDVLVDQGUHWDLQVWKHODWLWXGLQDOYDULDWLRQ&RPSDU
LQJERWKSURFHGXUHV3ODWHF YHUVXV H DQG G YHUVXV I LW
FDQEHVHHQWKDWWKHUHLVYLUWXDOO\QRGLIIHUHQFHIRULQGXVWULDO
L]HGDUHDVZLWKODUJHWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVDVZHOODVIRU
WKH PRUH UHPRWH FRQWLQHQWDO DUHDV 6RXWK $PHULFD $IULFD
DQG $XVWUDOLD 7KHUH DUH VRPH GLIIHUHQFHV RYHU WKH RFHDQV
EXWWKH\DUHVPDOOLQDQDEVROXWHVHQVH7KHWURSRVSKHULF12
FROXPQV RYHU WKH RFHDQV DQG DZD\ IURP 12[ VRXUFHV DUH
VPDOOHUWKDQ[ PROHFXOHVFP PLGGOHSDQHOV7KLVLV
WKH DPRXQW WKDW LV VXEWUDFWHG IURP ERWK WKH *20( 3ODWHV
DDQGEDQGPRGHOHG3ODWHVHDQGILQWKHGHULYDWLRQRI
WKHWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVEXWLVSDUWRIWKH WURSRVSKHULF
FROXPQ
&RPSDULQJ0RGHOV:LWK*20(
PD\DOVRDIIHFWWKHPRGHOYDOXHVLQWKHVHUHJLRQV7KHWURSR
VSKHULF 12 FROXPQV LQ ,0$*(6 DUH DERXW D IDFWRU RI VPDOOHU WKDQ *20( IRU 6RXWK $PHULFD DQG $IULFD 7KH
YDOXHV LQ 02=$57 DUH a WLPHV VPDOOHU IRU 6RXWK
$PHULFDDQGaWLPHVIRU$IULFD7KHPRGHOHGFROXPQVRYHU
WKH 6DKDUDQ DQG $XVWUDOLDQ GHVHUWV DUH VPDOO [ PROHFXOHVFP 7KH IROORZLQJ SRLQWV KDYH WR EH PHQWLRQHG LQ UHODWLRQ WR
WKHFRPSDULVRQ7KHHPLVVLRQVXVHGKHUHFRUUHVSRQGZLWK
DLQYHQWRU\DQGDUHSUREDEO\WRRORZIRUOHVSHFLDOO\
IRU&KLQD.DWRDQG$NLPRWR>@IRXQGLQLQFUHDVHLQ12[
HPLVVLRQV LQ HDVWHUQ $VLD RI \U LQ WKH V DQG V
([WUDSRODWLQJWKLVWUHQGJLYHVDQLQLQFUHDVHLQ12[HPLVVLRQV
IRUWKLVDUHDRIEHWZHHQDQG7KLVFDQH[SODLQ
RQO\SDUWRIWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ*20(DQG02=$57$
ODUJHU LQFUHDVH LQ HPLVVLRQV ZRXOG EH QHHGHG WR H[SODLQ WKH
ZKROH GLIIHUHQFH 'LIIHUHQFHV IRU 6RXWK $PHULFD DQG
$IULFDFDQDOVREHFDXVHGE\HUURUVLQWKHSDUDPHWHUL]DWLRQRI
FRQYHFWLYHSURFHVVHVZKLFKWUDQVSRUW12 IURPWKHERXQGDU\
OD\HUWRKLJKHUDOWLWXGHV,QWKLVFRPSDULVRQZHRQO\XVHG
RQH\HDURI*20( GDWD 7KH 12 FROXPQV SUREDEO\ GLVSOD\
VRPH \HDUWR\HDU YDULDELOLW\ EXW WKHVH UHDO GLIIHUHQFHV DUH
OLNHO\WREHVPDOOHUWKDQWKHODUJHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKH*20(
WURSRVSKHULF FROXPQ DPRXQWV DQG XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH
PRGHOHGUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHERXQGDU\OD\HUVXJJHVWLQJWKDW
DEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKRVHIDFWRUVZLOOEHQHHGHGEHIRUH
LQWHU DQQXDO IOXFWXDWLRQV FDQ EH PHDQLQJIXOO\ PHDVXUHG DQG
FRPSDUHGWRPRGHOFDOFXODWLRQV
7KH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH PHDVXUHG DQG PRGHOHG
FROXPQVFDQDOVREHVHHQLQ3ODWHZKHUHWKHUDWLRVEHWZHHQ
WKH 12 FROXPQ DPRXQWV DUH SORWWHG LH *20(,0$*(6
DQG *20(02=$57 )RU FDOFXODWLQJ WKHVH UDWLRV WKH
*20( GDWD KDYH EHHQ FRQYHUWHG WR WKH ,0$*(6 RU WKH
02=$57 JULG 1R UDWLR LV FDOFXODWHG LI HLWKHU WKH PHDVXUHG
RU PRGHOHG 12 FROXPQ ZDV VPDOOHU WKDQ [ PROHFXOHVFP 3ODWHDVKRZVWKDWIRUPRVWDUHDVWKH*20(
12 FROXPQLVWLPHVODUJHUWKDQWKHFROXPQFDOFXODWHGE\
,0$*(6 &RPSDULQJ *20( ZLWK 02=$57 3ODWH E
ORZHU UDWLRV LH EHWWHU FRUUHVSRQGHQFH DUH IRXQG IRU WKH
SROOXWHGDUHDVDIDFWRURIIRUHDVWHUQ8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG
ZHVWHUQ (XURSH 7KH FROXPQV PHDVXUHG E\ *20( RYHU WKH
6DKDUD DQG $XVWUDOLD DUH WLPHV ODUJHU WKDQ PRGHOHG E\
02=$577KHKLJKUDWLRVDURXQGƒ1RYHUZHVWHUQ5XVVLD
DUH WKH UHVXOW RI ODUJH 12 FROXPQV LQ *20( SUREDEO\
UHVXOWLQJ IURP DQ LQDGHTXDWH VXEWUDFWLRQ RI WKH VWUDWRVSKHULF
12 FROXPQIURPWKHWRWDOFROXPQIRUWKHVHDUHDV
)URPWKHVHFRPSDULVRQVEHWZHHQWKH*20(DQGPRGHOHG
WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQV ZH FRQFOXGH WKDW WKHUH LV D JRRG
TXDOLWDWLYH DJUHHPHQW EHWZHHQ WKH FROXPQ DPRXQWV UHWULHYHG
IURPWKH*20(PHDVXUHPHQWVDQGERWKVHWVRIPRGHOFDOFX
ODWLRQV 4XDQWLWDWLYHO\ WKH *20( FROXPQV DUH RI WKH VDPH
RUGHU DV WKH RQHV FDOFXODWHG E\ 02=$57 IRU WKH SROOXWHG
LQGXVWULDOL]HGDUHDV
7KHUHVXOWVRIWKH,0$*(6PRGHOGLIIHUVXEVWDQWLDOO\IURP
WKRVH RI WKH 02=$57 PRGHO 7KLV GLIIHUHQFH LV FDXVHG
PDLQO\E\ WKH GLIIHUHQW UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RI WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU
DQGUHVXOWLQJGLIIHUHQW12 SURILOHLQWKHORZHVWNLORPHWHURI
WKH PRGHOHG WURSRVSKHUH LQ WKH WZR PRGHOV 7KH 02=$57
PRGHO KDV D SK\VLFDOO\ PRUH UHDOLVWLF ERXQGDU\ OD\HU ZLWK
KLJK DQG PRUH RU OHVV KRPRJHQHRXV 12 FRQFHQWUDWLRQV ,Q
,0$*(6 WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU FDQQRW PDLQWDLQ D KLJK 12
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ WKURXJKRXW WKH ZKROH OD\HU (PLWWHG SROOXWDQWV
DUH UHPRYHG WRR IDVW IURP WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU E\ YHUWLFDO
3ODWHV ,0$*(6 DQG 02=$57 FDQ QRZ EH
FRPSDUHG ZLWK 3ODWH *20( :H PXVW EH FDXWLRXV LQ
PDNLQJ D TXDQWLWDWLYH FRPSDULVRQ FRQVLGHULQJ WKH ODUJH
XQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHUHWULHYDORIWKHWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQV
IURP WKH *20( PHDVXUHPHQWV DV GLVFXVVHG DERYH VHFWLRQV
DQG WKHVH DUH OLNHO\ WR EH DV ODUJH DV IRU
LQGLYLGXDOORFDWLRQV$TXDOLWDWLYHFRPSDULVRQRI*20(ZLWK
WKH PRGHO FDOFXODWLRQV LV KRZHYHU XVHIXO VLQFH WKLV XQFHU
WDLQW\ LV OLNHO\ WR DIIHFW WKH 12 FROXPQV HYHU\ZKHUH LQ D
VLPLODU PDQQHU 1RWH WKDW 3ODWHV DQG KDYH GLIIHUHQW
VFDOHVWRVKRZWKHIXOOUDQJHRIWKH12 FROXPQV7KHILJXUHV
DOVR GLIIHU LQ WKH JULG VL]HV JULG VL]H RI WKH *20( GDWD LV
ž [ ž 7KH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH 12 FROXPQV YDULHV
JUHDWO\LQGLIIHUHQWUHJLRQV%HFDXVHRIWKHFRORUVFDOHFKRVHQ
WKHORZ12 FROXPQVRYHUUHPRWHDUHDVDUHQRWHDVLO\YLVLEOH
LQWKHVHSODWHV,Q3ODWHWKHFROXPQVIURP*20(DUHSORWWHG
RQ WKH ,0$*(6 DQG 02=$57 JULGV DQG WKH FRORU VFDOH LV
QRQOLQHDUWRDFFHQWXDWHWKHDUHDVZLWKVPDOOFROXPQV
7KH RYHUDOO SLFWXUH RI WKH PHDVXUHG WURSRVSKHULF 12
FROXPQV LV ZHOO UHSURGXFHG E\ WKH PRGHO FDOFXODWLRQV ODUJH
FROXPQV RYHU LQGXVWULDOL]HG DUHDV ERWK LQ WKH 1RUWKHUQ DQG
6RXWKHUQ +HPLVSKHUHV ORZ YDOXHV RYHU UHPRWH FRQWLQHQWDO
DUHDV DQG YHU\ ORZ YDOXHV RYHU WKH RFHDQV /DUJHU WURSR
VSKHULF12 FROXPQVDUHIRXQGLQZLQWHUWKDQLQVXPPHUWKH
VDPH DV LQ WKH *20( REVHUYDWLRQV 7KH DEVROXWH YDOXHV RI
WKHWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVDVFDOFXODWHGE\02=$57DUH
FORVH WR WKRVH GHULYHG IURP WKH *20( PHDVXUHPHQWV ZKLOH
WKHFROXPQDPRXQWVIURP,0$*(6DUHVLJQLILFDQWO\VPDOOHU
7KH PD[LPXP YDOXHV LQ ,0$*(6 DUH DERXW D IDFWRU RI VPDOOHU WKDQ LQ *20( IRU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV a VPDOOHU
IRU (XURSH DQG a IRU $VLD XVLQJ WKH VDPH JULG WKDW RI
,0$*(6 IRU ERWK 7KH PD[LPXP YDOXHV LQ 02=$57 DUH
VLPLODU WR WKRVH RI *20( IRU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV D IDFWRU RI
VPDOOHU DQG (XURSH EXW D IDFWRU RI VPDOOHUIRU$VLDDOORQWKH02=$57JULG,IDYHUDJHGRYHU
D ODUJHU DUHD VXEFRQWLQHQWDO WKH KLJK PD[LPXP YDOXHV LQ
YHU\ORFDOL]HGDUHDVLQ02=$57DQGLQ*20(DUHVRPHZKDW
UHGXFHG 7KH DJUHHPHQW EHWZHHQ WKH PRGHO FDOFXODWLRQV DQG
WKH *20( PHDVXUHPHQWV LV VRPHZKDW ZRUVH IRU 6RXWK
$PHULFDDQG$IULFDDUHDVZLWKORZHU12 FROXPQVLQZKLFK
ELRPDVV EXUQLQJ VDYDQQDK ILUHV DQG VRLO HPLVVLRQV DUH WKH
GRPLQDQW 12[ VRXUFHV 8QFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH
ERXQGDU\OD\HUGXHWRODUJHUFRQYHFWLYHDFWLYLW\LQWKHWURSLFV
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
GLIIXVLRQ 7KH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU ZKLFK FRQWULEXWHV VWURQJO\ WR
WKHWRWDOWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQLQSROOXWHGDUHDVWKHUHIRUH
FRQWDLQV OHVV 12 LQ ,0$*(6 WKDQ LQ 02=$57 VHH DOVR
VHFWLRQ
&RQWULEXWLRQVWRWKH12&ROXPQ
1RZ WKDW ZH KDYH FRQVLGHUHG WKH PRGHOHG WURSRVSKHULF
12 FROXPQVLQVHFWLRQZHSUREHWKHEXLOGXSRIWKH12
FROXPQ VRPH DVSHFWV RI WKH FKHPLFDO SDUWLWLRQLQJ DQG WKH
FRQWULEXWLRQV IURP GLIIHUHQW YHUWLFDO OD\HUV EDVHG RQ PRGHO
FDOFXODWLRQVRQO\
VSHFLHV ZLWK WKH ODUJHVW WURSRVSKHULF FROXPQ LV +12 ZLWK
a[ PROHFXOHVFP RYHUWKHLQGXVWULDOL]HGDUHDVIRU
ERWK ,0$*(6 DQG 02=$57 7KH 12[12\ UDWLR RYHU WKH
LQGXVWULDOL]HG DUHDV LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG (XURSH LV a
LQ ,0$*(6 DQG LQ 02=$57 7KH REVHUYHG
12[12\ UDWLR >3DUULVK HW DO @ UDQJHV IURP a WR
aDWGD\WLPHDQGIURPaWRaGLXUQDOO\DYHUDJHGLQ
HDVWHUQ1RUWK$PHULFDLQ$XJXVW7KH02=$57YDOXHVDUHLQ
EHWWHU JHQHUDO DJUHHPHQW ZLWK WKHVH REVHUYDWLRQV WKDQ WKH
,0$*(6YDOXHV7KHPRGHOVGLIIHURQ WKHLU WUHDWPHQW RI WKH
QLWURJHQVSHFLHVUHVXOWLQJLQGLIIHUHQW12[+12 UDWLRV7KLV
GLIIHUHQFH LV PDLQO\ FDXVHG E\ D GLIIHUHQW ZHW GHSRVLWLRQ RI
+12 DQGGRHVQRWDIIHFWWKH12[FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHPRGHO
YHU\ PXFK >9HOGHUV DQG *UDQLHU @ :LWK UHVSHFW WR WKH
FROXPQWKHPLGGOHDQGXSSHUWURSRVSKHUHVFRQWULEXWHPRUHWR
WKH +12 WURSRVSKHULF FROXPQ WKDQ LQ WKH FDVH RI 12 EXW
WKH ORZHU WURSRVSKHUH DQG ERXQGDU\ OD\HU GRPLQDWH WKH
FROXPQ IRU ERWK VSHFLHV RYHU LQGXVWULDOL]HG DUHDV 7KH ODUJH
12\FROXPQDQGXQFHUWDLQW\LQLWVKRZVWKDWWKHPRGHOHG12
FROXPQV FRXOG EH VXEVWDQWLDOO\ DIIHFWHG E\ HUURUV LQ WKLV
SDUWLWLRQLQJVHHVHFWLRQ
12[DQG12\
$V PHQWLRQHG DERYH *20( SDVVHV RYHU WKH HTXDWRU DW
/7VRLWSHUIRUPVLWVPHDVXUHPHQWVDWYDULRXVODWLWXGHV
EHWZHHQaDQGa/7,Q3ODWHDWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQWURSR
VSKHULF 12 FROXPQ DW a /7 DQG WKH GLXUQDO DYHUDJH
FROXPQ LV JLYHQ DV D UDWLR DV FDOFXODWHG E\ ,0$*(6 2YHU
LQGXVWULDO DUHDV LQ WKH HDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG ZHVWHUQ
(XURSHWKHWURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQ DW WKH *20( RYHUSDVV
WLPH LV a RI WKH GLXUQDO DYHUDJH FROXPQ 2YHU 6RXWK
$PHULFDDQG$IULFDLWLVVOLJKWO\OHVV $Q\ HUURUV LQ
WKH GLXUQDO SDUWLWLRQLQJ RI 12 DUH WKHUHIRUH OLNHO\ WR EH WRR
VPDOO WR VXEVWDQWLDOO\ DIIHFW WKH FRPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ *20(
DQGWKHPRGHOFDOFXODWLRQV
,Q WKH DWPRVSKHUH 12 DQG 12 H[KLELW D FOHDU GLXUQDO
YDULDWLRQGXULQJWKHGD\12 LVFRQYHUWHGWR12E\SKRWRO\
VLV ZKLOH GXULQJ WKH QLJKW 12 LV FRQYHUWHG EDFN LQWR 12
PDLQO\E\WKHUHDFWLRQZLWKR]RQH7KHVXPRI12 DQG 12
12[ UHPDLQV PRUH RU OHVV FRQVWDQW GXULQJ WKLV F\FOH 7KH
DQQXDODYHUDJHOLIHWLPHRI12 LQWKH,0$*(6WURSRVSKHUHLV
a KRXUV ZKLOH LW LV a KRXUV LQ WKH ORZHVW NP RI WKH
1RUWKHUQ+HPLVSKHUHEHWZHHQƒ1 DQG ƒ1 ,W LV LQWHUHVW
LQJ WR VHH KRZ ODUJH WKH WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQ LV
FRPSDUHGZLWKWKHWURSRVSKHULF12[FROXPQ$QHUURULQWKH
PRGHOHG 12 12[ UDWLR FRXOG DOWHU WKH FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK
*20( PHDVXUHPHQWV 7KLV UDWLR \HDUO\ DYHUDJHG LV VKRZQ
LQ3ODWHEDQGF,Q,0$*(63ODWHEWKH12 FROXPQLV
RI WKH 12[ FROXPQ RYHU WKH FRQWLQHQWV GLXUQDO DQG
DQQXDO DYHUDJH ZLWK PD[LPXP YDOXHV RI a IRU WKH
HDVWHUQ8QLWHG6WDWHVZHVWHUQ(XURSHDQGHDVWHUQ&KLQD7KH
12 12[ UDWLR IRU 02=$57 3ODWH F LV RYHUDOO VOLJKWO\
KLJKHU 2YHU WKH PRVW SROOXWHG DUHDV UDWLRV RI a DUH
IRXQG7KHVHORZHUUDWLRVDUHPRVW SURQRXQFHG LQ WKH ZLQWHU
PRQWKVZLWKYDOXHVDVORZDVZKLOHLQVXPPHUWKHUHLV
QRGLIIHUHQFHRYHUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG(XURSHUDWLRa
7KHORZHU12 DQGKLJKHU12YDOXHVLQZLQWHUDUH SUREDEO\
WKHUHVXOWRIGLUHFW12HPLVVLRQVVORZHUSKRWRO\VLVRI12 WR
12DQGUHGXFHGFRQYHUVLRQRI12WR12 EHFDXVHRIORZHU
R]RQH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV 7KLV HIIHFW LV QRW REVHUYDEOH LQ WKH
,0$*(6PRGHO SUREDEO\ EHFDXVH RI WKH GLIIXVLYH QDWXUH RI
WKHERXQGDU\OD\HUZKLFKWUDQVSRUWV12DQG12 XSZDUGRXW
RII WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU WRR UDSLGO\ $Q HUURU LQ WKH 12 12[
UDWLR FRXOG DIIHFW WKH DJUHHPHQW ZLWK WKH *20( PHDVXUH
PHQWV DOWKRXJK WKH PRGHOHG UDWLR LV FORVH WR WKH REVHUYHG
UDWLR RI a LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU LQ HDVWHUQ 1RUWK
$PHULFDLQ$XJXVW>3DUULVKHWDO@
$VVXPLQJ WKH WRWDO 12[ HPLVVLRQV DUH UHODWLYHO\ ZHOO
NQRZQ WKH WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQ LQ WKH PRGHO FDOFXOD
WLRQV FDQ DOVR EH DIIHFWHG E\ D GLIIHUHQW GLVWULEXWLRQ RI
QLWURJHQ VSHFLHV EHWZHHQ 12 RU 12[ DQG 12\ 7KH 12\
[
&RQWULEXWLRQRI'LIIHUHQW/D\HUV
,Q VHFWLRQ DQG LQ VHFWLRQ ZH KDYH FRQVLGHUHG WKH
ZKROHWURSRVSKHULFFROXPQRI12 1RZZHZLOOFRQVLGHUWKH
FRQWULEXWLRQV RI GLIIHUHQW OD\HUV WR WKH WRWDO WURSRVSKHULF
FROXPQ IRFXVLQJ LQ SDUWLFXODU WR KRZ VHQVLWLYH WKH WRWDO
WURSRVSKHULF FROXPQ LV WR WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU ,Q 3ODWH WKH
12 FROXPQ LQ VKRZQ LQWHJUDWHG XS WR WKH WURSRSDXVH EXW
VWDUWLQJDWOD\HUVXUIDFHOD\HUERWWRPDWNPOD\HU
NP DQG OD\HU NP DV FDOFXODWHG E\ WKH
02=$57PRGHO)URPWKHVHSORWVLWFDQEHVHHQWKDWRYHUWKH
PRUH SROOXWHG FRQWLQHQWDO DUHDV WKH ILUVW WKUHH OD\HUV
LQGLYLGXDOO\ FRQWULEXWH PRUH WR WKH WRWDO WURSRVSKHULF 12
FROXPQWKDQDOORWKHUOD\HUVFRPELQHG2YHUWKHLQGXVWULDOL]HG
DUHDVLQWKHHDVWHUQ8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGZHVWHUQ(XURSHOD\HU
PDNHVXSRIWKHWRWDOWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQOD\HU
DQRWKHU OD\HU a DQG WKH RWKHU OD\HUV
FRPELQHG\LHOG2YHUWKHUHPRWHFRQWLQHQWDODUHDVRI
6RXWK$PHULFDDQG$IULFDWKHILUVWOD\HUFRQWULEXWHV
WKH VHFRQG OD\HU WKH WKLUG ZKLOH WKH RWKHU
OD\HUVFRQWULEXWH2YHUWKHUHPRWHRFHDQVLHDZD\
IURPWKHFRQWLQHQWVWKHOD\HUVDERYHNPDOWLWXGHFRQWULEXWH
PRUHWKDQWRWKHWRWDOWURSRVSKHULFFROXPQ&ORVHUWRWKH
FRQWLQHQWV DQG LQ WKH 1RUWK $WODQWLF WKH OD\HUV DERYH NP
FRQWULEXWHWRWKHWRWDOFROXPQ
7KHORZHVWIHZOD\HUVUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHERXQGDU\ OD\HU LQ
WKH 02=$57 PRGHO FOHDUO\ FRQWULEXWH PRVW WR WKH WURSR
VSKHULF 12 FROXPQ WKH VDPH KROGV IRU ,0$*(6 7KH
ERXQGDU\ OD\HU LV GLIILFXOW WR PRGHO SURSHUO\ LQ D JOREDO
DWPRVSKHULF PRGHO VLQFH WKH FKHPLFDO DQG G\QDPLFDO
SURFHVVHVLQWKHERXQGDU\OD\HURFFXURQVSDWLDODQGWHPSRUDO
VFDOHV WKDW DUH WRR VPDOO IRU WKH UHODWLYHO\ FRDUVH VSDWLDO
UHVROXWLRQ DQG WLPH VWHS RI JOREDO PRGHOV 7KHUHIRUH RQ D
ORFDOVFDOHRIWHQVRINLORPHWHUVPXFKKLJKHU12 FRQFHQWUD
WLRQVPLJKWEHIRXQGLQWKHERXQGDU\OD\HUWKDQFDOFXODWHGE\
JOREDO PRGHOV ZKLFK FDQ LQFUHDVH WKH WURSRVSKHULF 12
FROXPQ VLJQLILFDQWO\ $V KDV EHHQ VKRZQ LQ VHFWLRQ *20(¶V VHQVLWLYLW\ WR 12 LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU LV D
FRPSOH[ IXQFWLRQ RI DOEHGR DQG ZDYHOHQJWK UHVXOWLQJ LQ D
ODUJHXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHGHULYHGWURSRVSKHULFFROXPQV
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
a) GOME: NO2 column: IMAGES grid
Max USA: 13.5
Max Europe: 12.8
0.0 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1
0.2
0.5
1.0
b) GOME: NO2 column: MOZART
Max Asia: 8.3
2.0
5.0 >10.0
c) IMAGES NO2 column
Max USA: 6.1
0.2
0.5
Max Asia: 2.6
1.0
2.0
5.0 >10.0
e) IMAGES: NO2 column: 180W subtracted
Max USA: 6.0
Max Europe: 6.1
0.0 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1
0.2
Max Europe: 14.8
0.0 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1
0.2
0.5
1.0
Max Asia: 11.7
2.0
5.0 >10.0
d) MOZART: NO2 column
Max Europe: 6.2
0.0 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1
Max USA: 15.0
0.5
1.0
Max Asia: 2.5
2.0
5.0 >10.0
NO2 (1.0e+15 molecules/cm2)
Max USA: 15.4
Max Europe: 12.8
0.0 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1
0.2
0.5
1.0
Max Asia: 6.5
2.0
5.0 >10.0
f) MOZART: NO2 column: 180-165W subtracted
Max USA: 15.1
Max Europe: 12.5
0.0 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1
0.2
0.5
1.0
Max Asia: 6.1
2.0
5.0 >10.0
NO2 (1.0e+15 molecules/cm2)
3ODWH<HDUO\DYHUDJHGWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVRI*20(DE,0$*(6FHDQG02=$57GIDOO
SORWWHG RQ OHIW WKH ,0$*(6 JULG RI ž [ ž DQG ULJKW WKH 02=$57 JULG RI ž [ ž F DQG G WKH
WURSRVSKHULFFROXPQLVFDOFXODWHGE\DVXPPDWLRQIURPWKHVXUIDFHWRWKHWURSRSDXVHZKLOHLQHDQGIWKH
WURSRVSKHULF FROXPQ LV FDOFXODWHG E\ VXEWUDFWLQJ D ORQJLWXGH EDQG RYHU WKH 3DFLILF IURP DOO ORQJLWXGHV 7KH
ODWWHUPHWKRGLVVLPLODUWRZKDWLVXVHGWRGHULYHWKHWURSRVSKHULFFROXPQIURPWKHWRWDOFROXPQLQWKH*20(
GDWD7KHFROXPQVFRUUHVSRQGWRa/71RWHDQRQOLQHDUFRORUVFDOHLVXVHG
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
a) NO2 column: GOME/IMAGES
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
b) NO2 column: GOME/MOZART
4.5
5.0 >5.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
NO2 GOME/IMAGES
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0 >5.5
NO2 GOME/MOZART
3ODWH 5DWLRV RI WKH 12 FROXPQV IURP *20( UHODWLYH WR WKH ,0$*(6 DQG 02=$57 FROXPQV LH D
*20(,0$*(6 DQG E *20(02=$57 6KRZQ DUH DV D IUDFWLRQ WKH \HDUO\ DYHUDJHG FROXPQV
FRUUHVSRQGLQJZLWK/77KHUDWLRLVRQO\SORWWHGLIERWKWKH*20(DQGPRGHOGHULYHG12 FROXPQVDUH
ODUJHUWKDQ[ PROHFXOHVFP a) IMAGES: NO2 column: 10:30am vs diurnal av
Max USA: 78%
0
10
20
30
Max Europe: 80%
40
50
60
b) IMAGES: NO2/NOx column
Max Asia: 68%
70
80
Max USA: 79%
90
0
10
NO2(10:30)/NO2 (percent)
20
30
Max Europe: 81%
40
50
60
Max Asia: 74%
70
80
90
NO2/NOx (percent)
c) MOZART:NO2/NOx column
Max USA: 86%
0
10
20
30
Max Europe: 93%
40
50
60
Max Asia: 86%
70
80
90
NO2/NOx (percent)
3ODWH 5DWLRV EHWZHHQ D WKH WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQ DW /7 DQG WKH GLXUQDO DYHUDJH FROXPQ
,0$*(6DQGEHWZHHQWKHGLXUQDODYHUDJHWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQDQGWKH12[FROXPQFDOFXODWHGE\E
,0$*(6DQGF02=$57<HDUO\DYHUDJHGFROXPQVDUHVKRZQ
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
a) MOZART: NO2 column: 0 - tropopause
Max USA: 15.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Max Europe: 12.8
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
b) MOZART: NO2 column: 0.17 km - tropopause
Max Asia: 6.5
Max USA: 10.7
9.0 10.0 >11.0
0.0
c) MOZART: NO2 column: 0.45 km - tropopause
Max USA: 5.5
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
Max Europe: 4.3
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
Max USA: 2.1
4.0 >4.4
Max Europe: 8.8
4.0
4.8
5.6
6.4
Max Asia: 4.1
7.2
8.0 >8.8
d) MOZART: NO2 column: 0.94 km - tropopause
Max Asia: 2.6
3.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
NO2 (1.0e+15 molecules/cm2)
0.6
0.8
Max Europe: 2.0
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Max Asia: 1.5
1.8
2.0 >2.2
NO2 (1.0e+15 molecules/cm2)
3ODWH'LIIHUHQWYHUWLFDOLQWHJUDWLRQVIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKH\HDUO\DYHUDJHGWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQDVFDOFX
ODWHG E\ 02=$57 /7 7KH LQWHJUDWLRQV DUH SHUIRUPHG XS WR WKH WURSRSDXVH EXW VWDUWLQJ DW D WKH
VXUIDFHENPFNPDQGGNP
Radiative forcing tropospheric NO2
Max USA: 0.126
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
Max Europe: 0.104
0.05
0.06
0.07
Max Asia: 0.055
0.08
0.09
0.10 >0.11
NO2 (W/m2)
3ODWH$QQXDODYHUDJHUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJ:P RIWURSRVSKHULF12 FDOFXODWHGZLWK02=$577KHUDGLD
WLYHIRUFLQJVDUHGLXUQDODYHUDJHVIRUFORXGIUHHFRQGLWLRQVFDOFXODWHGXVLQJWKHGD\WLPHDYHUDJHWURSRVSKHULF
12 FROXPQV
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
+HWHURJHQHRXV&RQYHUVLRQRI+12RQ6RRW
/DU\ HW DO >@ SURSRVHG WKDW D KHWHURJHQHRXV FRQYHU
VLRQRI+12 WR12PLJKW WDNH SODFH RQ VRRW 7KLV UHDFWLRQ
FDQ LQFUHDVH WKH 12 DQG WKHUHE\ 12 FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH
WURSRVSKHUH ,W KDV LWV ODUJHVW DIIHFW RYHU DQG GRZQZLQG RI
SROOXWHG DUHDV ZKHUH ODUJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI ERWK +12 DQG
VRRWRFFXULHWKHHDVWRI&KLQDHDVWHUQ(XURSHDQG6LEHULD
ZLWK VPDOOHU HIIHFWV LQ WKH HDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG GXULQJ
WKHELRPDVVEXUQLQJVHDVRQLQWKHWURSLFVRYHU6RXWK$PHULFD
DQG $IULFD DQG GRZQZLQG IURP WKHUH +DXJOXVWDLQH HW DO
>@VKRZHGWKDWWKLVUHDFWLRQFRXOGUHGXFHWKH+12 12[
UDWLR LQ WKH IUHH WURSRVSKHUH DW +DZDLL UHQGHULQJ PRGHOHG
YDOXHVLQEHWWHUDJUHHPHQWZLWKPHDVXUHPHQWV
7KHHIIHFWRIWKLVUHDFWLRQRQWKHWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQ
ZDV VWXGLHG XVLQJ ,0$*(6 6LQFH VRRW LV QRW H[SOLFLWO\
PRGHOHG E\ ,0$*(6 LW ZDV FUXGHO\ UHSUHVHQWHG DV VXOIDWH
62 LQ WKH FDOFXODWLRQV 7KLV LV LQWHQGHG RQO\ WR WHVW KRZ
VHQVLWLYH WKH 12 FROXPQV DUH WR D SRVVLEOH KHWHURJHQHRXV
FRQYHUVLRQ RI +12 6RRW DQG VXOIDWH KDYH VLPLODU VRXUFHV
DQG GLVWULEXWLRQV DQG WKH UHDFWLRQ UDWH LV DGMXVWHG WR DFFRXQW
IRUWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQDEVROXWHYDOXHVEHWZHHQVRRWDQGVXOIDWH
$ UHDFWLRQ UDWH RI [ FP V ZDV XVHG ZKLFK LV
HTXLYDOHQWWRDFRQYHUVLRQOLIHWLPHRIGD\VLQWKH1RUWKHUQ
+HPLVSKHUHNPDOWLWXGH7KLVUHVXOWVLQWURSRVSKHULF12
FROXPQV LQ WKH HDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG ZHVWHUQ (XURSH RI
a [ PROHFXOHV FP DQ LQFUHDVH RI /DUJHU
LQFUHDVHVRFFXURYHUZHVWHUQ5XVVLD6LEHULDPRUH
WKDQ DQG HDVWHUQ &KLQD 7KLV KHWHURJHQHRXV
FRQYHUVLRQ RI +12 KDV OLWWOH HIIHFW LQ WKH 6RXWKHUQ
+HPLVSKHUH7KXVUHDFWLRQVRQVRRWPD\VLJQLILFDQWO\LQFUHDVH
WKHPRGHOHG12 FROXPQDPRXQWV
\HDUO\ DYHUDJH 12 OHYHOV DW XUEDQ VLWHV RI a SSEY VXE
XUEDQVLWHVRIaSSEYDQGDWUXUDOVLWHVRIaSSEY IRU WKH
V 7KHLU FKHPLOXPLQHVFHQFH PHDVXULQJ WHFKQLTXH LV
VHQVLWLYHQRWRQO\WR12 EXWDOVRWRRWKHUQLWURJHQFRQWDLQLQJ
FRPSRXQGVVXFKDV3$17KLVFDQFDXVHDQRYHUHVWLPDWLRQRI
WKHUHSRUWHG12 OHYHOVHVSHFLDOO\LQUXUDODUHDV>(3$@
7KHVHGDWDDUHWKHUHIRUHOHVVXVHIXOIRURXUVWXG\EXWWKH\GR
VKRZWKDWYHU\KLJKPL[LQJUDWLRVDUHIRXQGLQSROOXWHGDUHDV
LQ DJUHHPHQW ZLWK YHU\ ODUJH ORFDO 12 FROXPQV RYHU LQGXV
WULDOL]HG DUHDV 0HDVXUHPHQWV LQ WKH IUHH WURSRVSKHUH >HJ
(PPRQVHWDO@DUHDOVROHVVUHOHYDQWIRUWKLVVWXG\VLQFH
WKH IUHH WURSRVSKHUH FRQWULEXWHV RQO\ D VPDOO DPRXQW WR WKH
WURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQV
0HDVXUHPHQWVRIUHDFWLYHQLWURJHQDW UXUDO JURXQG VLWHV LQ
HDVWHUQ1RUWK$PHULFDZHUHUHSRUWHGE\3DUULVKHWDO>@
,Q ODWH VXPPHU RI WKH\ PHDVXUHG VHYHUDO WURSRVSKHULF
WUDFH VSHFLHV LQFOXGLQJ 12 12 DQG 12\ DW VHYHQ VXUIDFH
ORFDWLRQV UHSUHVHQWDWLYH IRU UXUDO DUHDV LQ WKH SRSXODWHG
UHJLRQV RI HDVWHUQ 1RUWK $PHULFD 0L[LQJ UDWLRV RYHU UXUDO
DUHDVLQLQGXVWULDOL]HGUHJLRQVRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG(XURSH
DUH EHVW VXLWHG IRU YDOLGDWLQJ WKH *20( DQG PRGHOHG GDWD
FRQVLGHULQJ WKH JULG VL]HV RI *20( DQG RI WKH PRGHOV XVHG
KHUH 3DUULVK HW DO >@ IRXQG WKDW WKH GD\WLPH PHGLDQ 12\ OHYHOV IRU D IXOO\ FRQYHFWLYH ZHOO PL[HG
ERXQGDU\OD\HUZHUHWRSSEY7KH12\OHYHOVYDU\DWHDFK
VLWHE\DQRUGHURIPDJQLWXGHRUPRUH7KHGD\WLPH12[12\
UDWLR ZDV 7KH REVHUYHG GD\WLPH 1212\ UDWLR ZDV
a )URP WKLV ZH GHULYH 12 GD\WLPH YDOXHV UDQJLQJ IURP
WRSSEY7KHGLXUQDODYHUDJH12 YDOXHVDUHa
SSEYDQGaSSEYDWWKH*20(RYHUSDVVWLPHRI
/7
,Q)LJXUHWKHPRGHOHGGLXUQDODYHUDJH12 PL[LQJUDWLRV
LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU DUH VKRZQ IRU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV LQ
$XJXVW 7KHVH PL[LQJ UDWLRV EURDGO\ DJUHH ZLWK RWKHU PRGHO
FDOFXODWLRQV >/HY\ HW DO +RURZLW] DQG -DFRE @
ZKLFK VKRZ ERXQGDU\ OD\HU YDOXHV DERYH SSEY RYHU WKH
LQGXVWULDOL]HG DUHDV 7KH 12 PHDVXUHPHQWV >3DUULVK HW DO
@DUHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHIRUDZHOOPL[HGERXQGDU\OD\HU7KH
ORZHVWOD\HUVLQWKHPRGHOFDOFXODWLRQVGRQRWVKRZDXQLIRUP
PL[LQJ UDWLR EXW KDYH KLJK YDOXHV FORVH WR WKH VXUIDFH DQG
GHFUHDVLQJ WRZDUGV WKH WRS RI WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU )RU WKH
FRPSDULVRQ WKH PRGHOHG PL[LQJ UDWLRV DUH DYHUDJHG RYHU WKH
ORZHVW HLJKW PRGHO OD\HUV IRU ,0$*(6 NP DQG WKH
ORZHVW IRXU PRGHO OD\HUV IRU 02=$57 NP 7KH
FDOFXODWHG DYHUDJH YDOXHV IRU WKH HDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DUH
SSEY IRU ,0$*(6 DQG SSEY IRU 02=$57 7KH
ODWWHU YDOXHV DJUHH ZHOO ZLWK WKH PHDVXUHG YDOXHV SSEYEXWWKRVHRI,0$*(6DUHWRRORZ,QWKHORZHVWOD\HU
LQ WKH PRGHOV 12 YDOXHV DUH DV KLJK DV SSEY ,0$*(6
DQGSSEY02=$57,QZLQWHUZLWKDVPDOOHUERXQGDU\
OD\HUYDOXHVPRUHWKDQWZLFHDVODUJHDUHIRXQG ERWK IRU WKH
DYHUDJHLQWKHERXQGDU\OD\HUDQGLQWKHORZHVWOD\HU
$PL[LQJUDWLRRISSEYLQDZHOOPL[HGERXQGDU\OD\HURI
NP FRQWULEXWHV [ PROHFXOHV FP WR WKH WRWDO
FROXPQ 7KH REVHUYHG SSEY RI 12 DW a /7
WKHUHIRUH\LHOGVa[ PROHFXOHVFP IRUDERXQGDU\
OD\HU RI NP $GGLQJ WR WKLV DQ 12 FROXPQ LQ WKH IUHH
WURSRVSKHUHRIa[ PROHFXOHVFP $XJXVWGDWDIURP
02=$57 PRGHO ZH REWDLQ D WRWDO WURSRVSKHULF FROXPQ RI
[ PROHFXOHV FP 7KH 12 FROXPQV UHWULHYHG
IURP*20(LQWKHHDVWHUQ8QLWHG6WDWHVLQ$XJXVWDUHa
[ PROHFXOHVFP ZLWKPD[LPXPYDOXHVXSWR[
PROHFXOHV FP LQ YHU\ ORFDOL]HG DUHDV 7KLV LV ZLWKLQ WKH
9DOLGDWLRQRI7URSRVSKHULF12
,Q WKH SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQV ZH KDYH FRPSDUHG WKH WURSR
VSKHULF12 FROXPQVIURP*20(ZLWKFROXPQDPRXQWVIURP
FKHPLVWU\ WUDQVSRUW PRGHOV DQG IRXQG GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH
DEVROXWHYDOXHVRIWKHFROXPQV,QWKLVVHFWLRQWKHIRFXVLVRQ
WKHYDOLGDWLRQRIWKH*20(12 YDOXHV2EYLRXVO\WKHPRVW
VWUDLJKWIRUZDUGZD\WRYDOLGDWH12 FROXPQVIURP*20(LV
WR FRPSDUH WKHP ZLWK FROXPQ PHDVXUHPHQWV PDGH IURP WKH
JURXQG $ ODUJH QXPEHU RI 12 FROXPQ PHDVXUHPHQWV IURP
JURXQG EDVHG VWDWLRQV LV DYDLODEOH EXW WKH\ PRVWO\ IRFXV RQ
VWUDWRVSKHULF12 DQGDUHLQUHPRWHORFDWLRQVRURQPRXQWDLQ
WRSV HJ GDWD IURP WKH 1HWZRUN IRU 'HWHFWLRQ RI 6WUDWR
VSKHULF&KDQJH1'6&7KHIRFXVLQWKLVVWXG\LVRQ12 LQ
WKH SROOXWHG DUHDV RI 8QLWHG 6WDWHV (XURSH DQG $VLD ZLWK
RQO\ D IHZ RU QRQH DW DOO V\VWHPDWLF 12 FROXPQ PHDVXUH
PHQWVDWWKHVHORFDWLRQV:HWKHUHIRUHFRPSDUHPRGHOHG12
PL[LQJ UDWLRV ZLWK PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU WR
DVVHVV LQGLUHFWO\ WKH TXDOLW\ RI WKH PRGHOHG 12 FROXPQV
8VLQJWKHFRPSDULVRQVEHWZHHQ*20(DQGWKHPRGHOFDOFX
ODWLRQVLQWKHVHFWLRQVDQGZHFDQWKHQJHWDQLGHDRIWKH
TXDOLW\RIWKH*20(PHDVXUHPHQWV:HDOVRFRPSDUHWURSR
VSKHULF 12 FROXPQV IURP *20( DQG WKH PRGHOV ZLWK
FROXPQV LQIHUUHG IURP PL[LQJ UDWLR PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ WKH
ERXQGDU\OD\HU
/RFDO PHDVXUHPHQWV RI 12 LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU DUH
SHUIRUPHG E\ PDQ\ LQVWLWXWHV DOO RYHU WKH ZRUOG 7KH\
JHQHUDOO\WDNHSODFHLQFLWLHVIRUORFDODLUTXDOLW\VWXGLHV7KH
(3$>@SHUIRUPVPHDVXUHPHQWVRI12 DWYDULRXVVXUIDFH
ORFDWLRQV LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV RQ D GDLO\ EDVLV 7KH\ UHSRUW
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
IMAGES: NO2
MOZART: NO2
50oN
0.2
50oN
1.5
0.5
0.
6
40oN
0 .6
1.
5
2
0.
1.0
0 .8
0.4
5
22..0
40oN
1.0
0.4
0.5
1.5
1.0.5
0
0.2
30oN
30oN
0.
5
0.4
0.2
20oN
130oW
120oW
110oW
100oW
90oW
80oW
70oW
60oW
20oN
130oW
120oW
110oW
100oW
90oW
80oW
70oW
60oW
)LJXUH 'LXUQDO DYHUDJH 12 PL[LQJ UDWLRV SSEY LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU IRU $XJXVW FDOFXODWHG ZLWK D
,0$*(6 DQG E 02=$57 7KH PL[LQJ UDWLRV DUH DYHUDJHG RYHU WKH ORZHVW NP RI WKH PRGHOHG DWPRV
SKHUH
UDQJHRIWKHFROXPQVLQIHUUHGIURPWKHPHDVXUHG12 PL[LQJ
UDWLRVDQGVOLJKWO\ODUJHUWKDQWKHFROXPQVFDOFXODWHGZLWKWKH
02=$57PRGHO [ PROHFXOHV FP DW a /7 LQ
$XJXVWZLWKDORFDOPD[LPXPRI[ PROHFXOHVFP 7KHYDOXHVIURP,0$*(6DUH[ PROHFXOHVFP 7KH IROORZLQJ TXDOLILFDWLRQV FRQFHUQLQJ WKLV FRPSDULVRQ
QHHGWREHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW
7KH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU WKLFNQHVV LV QRW NQRZQ H[DFWO\
DIIHFWLQJ WKH FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH PRGHOHG FROXPQV ZLWK WKH
VXUIDFHPL[LQJUDWLRGDWD7KHWKLFNQHVVRINPZHDVVXPHG
KHUHLVSUREDEO\RQWKHORZHQGUHVXOWLQJLQDORZHVWLPDWHRI
WKHFROXPQLQIHUUHGIURPWKHVXUIDFHPL[LQJUDWLRV
7KH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU LQ WKH PRGHO FDOFXODWLRQV GRHV QRW
KDYH D XQLIRUP PL[LQJ UDWLR EXW H[KLELWV KLJK VXUIDFH YDOXHV
GHFUHDVLQJ WRZDUG WKH WRS RI WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU )RU WKLV
FRPSDULVRQWKHDYHUDJHRIWKHPL[LQJUDWLRVLQWKHORZHVW
NPKDVEHHQXVHG7KLVLVQRWQHFHVVDULO\WKHVDPHDVDZHOO
PL[HG ERXQGDU\ OD\HU EHFDXVH RI SRVVLEOH QRQOLQHDU 12[
FKHPLVWU\
7KH UHODWLYHO\ ODUJH JULG VL]H RI WKH PRGHOV DIIHFWV WKH
12[FKHPLVWU\VLQFHWKH12HPLVVLRQVDUHHPLWWHGLQWRWKHVH
ER[HVDQGGLOXWHGPRUHWKDQLQUHDOLW\UHVXOWLQJLQORZHUORFDO
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVDQGDGLIIHUHQWFRQYHUVLRQWR12 +LJK 12 PL[LQJ UDWLRV DQG FROXPQV RFFXU RQ D ORFDO
VFDOH LQ XUEDQ DQG VXEXUEDQ DUHDV VHH ODUJH PL[LQJ UDWLR LQ
XUEDQ DQG VXEXUEDQ DUHDV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH (3$ >@
ZKLFK FDQQRW EH PRGHOHG LQ D JOREDO PRGHO DQG SUREDEO\
GLIILFXOW WR REVHUYH E\ *20( EXW FDQ DIIHFW WKH 12
FROXPQVIURPERWK
7KH GDWD *20( PRGHO DQG VXUIDFH 12 PL[LQJ
UDWLRV DOO VKRZ FRQVLGHUDEOH VSDWLDO YDULDELOLW\ ZKLFK
FRPSOLFDWHVWKHFRPSDULVRQ
7KHVHFRQVLGHUDWLRQVGRQRWFKDQJHWKHRYHUDOOSLFWXUHWKDW
WKH WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQV IURP *20( RYHU HDVWHUQ
1RUWK $PHULFD DUH RI WKH VDPH RUGHU DV WKRVH GHULYHG IURP
ERWK WKH REVHUYHG LQ VLWX 12 PL[LQJ UDWLRV DQG WKRVH IURP
WKHPRGHOFDOFXODWLRQVZLWK02=$57
FDXVH D ORFDO LQVWDQWDQHRXV DEVRUSWLRQ RI UDGLDWLRQ LQ WKH
WURSRVSKHUH RI XS WR a : P OLNHO\ UHVXOWLQJ IURP DLU
SROOXWLRQ 2YHU SROOXWHG DUHDV LQ WKH HDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV
QRUWKZHVWHUQ (XURSH DQG WKH HDVW RI &KLQD D ODUJHU ORFDO
UDGLDWLYH DEVRUSWLRQ FDQ EH H[SHFWHG $EVRUSWLRQ RI VRODU
UDGLDWLRQ LQ WKH WURSRVSKHUH E\ 12 RI XS WR : P KDV
EHHQ HVWLPDWHG WR WDNH SODFH LQ FORXGV GXULQJ WKXQGHUVWRUPV
>6RORPRQ HW DO @ 1RWH WKDW WKH ORFDO UDGLDWLYH DEVRUS
WLRQYDOXHVJLYHQE\6RORPRQHWDO>@FRUUHVSRQGWRWKH
QHWDEVRUSWLRQRFFXUULQJLQWKHWURSRVSKHULFDLUFROXPQ7KLV
LVGLIIHUHQWIURPWKHUDGLDWLYHFOLPDWHIRUFLQJLHWKHFKDQJH
LQ IOX[ DW WKH WURSRSDXVH VLQFH LW LQFOXGHV DEVRUSWLRQ ZKLFK
ZRXOGKDYHRFFXUUHGDWWKHJURXQGDQ\ZD\7KHGLIIHUHQFHLV
ODUJHVWIRUFOHDUVNLHVDQGFORXG\VNLHVZKHUHWKHDEVRUEHULV
ORFDWHGEHORZWKHFORXGIRURSWLFDOO\WKLFNFORXGVZKHUHWKH
DEVRUEHU LV ORFDWHG LQ RU DERYH WKH FORXG WKH GLIIHUHQFH LV
UHODWLYHO\ VPDOO ,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ ZH XVH WKH PRGHOHG 12
FROXPQVIURP,0$*(6DQG02=$57WRPDNHDJOREDOPDS
RI WKH UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ E\ 12 LQ WKH WURSRVSKHUH IRU FOHDU
VN\FRQGLWLRQV
$OLQHE\OLQHUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUFDOFXODWLRQZKLFKLQFRUSR
UDWHV WKH ',6257 >6WDPQHV HW DO @ VFDWWHULQJ FRGH KDV
EHHQXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\7KLVLVWKHVDPHEDVLFPRGHODVXVHG
LQ6RORPRQHWDO>@$SHUWXUEDWLRQSURILOHRI12 ZLWK
DOORIWKH12 LQWKHORZHVWNPLVDVVXPHGVLQFHWKHPRGHOV
VKRZWKDWPRVWRIWKH12 LVLQWKHERXQGDU\OD\HULQSROOXWHG
UHJLRQV 2YHUODS ZLWK 2 DQG 2 LV LQFOXGHG DOWKRXJK WKHLU
LQIOXHQFH LV VPDOO H[FHSW IRU 2 DEVRUSWLRQ LQ WKH 89 $
JURXQG DOEHGR RI LV DVVXPHG ZKLFK LV UHDVRQDEOH IRU
FRQWLQHQWDOXUEDQDUHDVLQWKHEOXHUHJLRQRIWKHVSHFWUXP$Q
DHURVROOD\HULVLQFOXGHGLQWKHERXQGDU\OD\HUZLWKDQRSWLFDO
GHSWKRIDVLQJOHVFDWWHULQJDOEHGRDQGDQDV\PPH
WU\ IDFWRU RI ZKLFK DUH YHU\ FRQVHUYDWLYH HVWLPDWHV IRU
SROOXWHG UHJLRQV 7KH GLXUQDO F\FOH LV LQWHJUDWHG RYHU IRU WKH
WKGD\RIHDFKPRQWKDVDIXQFWLRQRIODWLWXGHIRUFOHDUVN\
FRQGLWLRQV7KLV\LHOGVDORFDOUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJHIILFLHQF\SHU
12 PROHFXOH : P FP ZKLFK FDQ EH PXOWLSOLHG E\ WKH
12 FROXPQWRREWDLQWKHORFDOUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJ
3ODWHVKRZVWKHGLXUQDODQQXDODYHUDJHUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJ
RIWURSRVSKHULF12 DVFDOFXODWHGXVLQJWKHGD\WLPHDYHUDJHG
WURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVIURP02=$576LQFHWKHGD\WLPH
12 FROXPQVZHUHQRWGLUHFWO\DYDLODEOHIURPWKH02=$57
FDOFXODWLRQVZHXVHGWKHUHVXOWVIURPWKH,0$*(6PRGHOWR
FDOFXODWH WKH UDWLR EHWZHHQ WKH GD\WLPH DYHUDJH WURSRVSKHULF
5DGLDWLYH)RUFLQJRI7URSRVSKHULF12
,Q DGGLWLRQ WR SOD\LQJ D UROH LQ WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI R]RQH LQ
WKHWURSRVSKHUH12 DOVRDEVRUEVVRODUUDGLDWLRQDQGWKHUHE\
PD\FRQWULEXWHWRWKHUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJRIFOLPDWH6RORPRQHW
DO >@ VKRZHG WKDW RYHU %RXOGHU &RORUDGR 12 FDQ
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
12 FROXPQVDQGWKHGLXUQDODYHUDJHFROXPQV7KLVUDWLRZDV
WKHQXVHGRQDPRQWKO\EDVLVWRFDOFXODWHWKHGD\WLPHDYHUDJH
FROXPQV IRU WKH 02=$57 FDOFXODWLRQV 7KH PD[LPXP
PRQWKO\ YDOXHV DWWDLQHG E\ WKH ORFDO UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ RI
WURSRVSKHULF12 DUH:P 0XFKODUJHUYDOXHVFDQ
EHH[SHFWHGLQFLWLHVZKHUHYHU\KLJK12 FRQFHQWUDWLRQVDUH
REVHUYHG HYHQWV WKDW DUH QRW ZHOO UHSUHVHQWHG LQ WKH JOREDO
PRGHOFDOFXODWLRQSUHVHQWHGKHUH7KHVHORFDO³KRWVSRWV´RYHU
LQGXVWULDOL]HG DUHDV FRXOG EH LPSRUWDQW IRU ORFDO KHDWLQJ LQ
XUEDQDUHDV2QDPRUHFRQWLQHQWDOVFDOHDUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJRI
: P LV FDOFXODWHG RYHU WKH HDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV
ZHVWHUQ (XURSH DQG HDVWHUQ 5XVVLD 7KH FDOFXODWLRQ RI
UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ LOOXVWUDWHV WKH UHJLRQDO GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG
PDJQLWXGH DW OHDVW WR D IDFWRU RI DFFXUDF\ 7KH FDOFXODWHG
YDOXHV DUH RI WKH VDPH RUGHU DV WKH UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ RI WKH
ZHOOPL[HG JUHHQKRXVH JDV 1 2 : P EXW VPDOOHU
WKDQWKHUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJRIWKHKDORFDUERQV:P DQG
RI WURSRVSKHULF R]RQH : P >,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO
3DQHO RQ &OLPDWH &KDQJH .LHKO HW DO :RUOG
0HWHRURORJLFDO 2UJDQL]DWLRQ @ *OREDOO\ DYHUDJHG WKH
HVWLPDWHG UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ RI WURSRVSKHULF 12 LV UHODWLYHO\
VPDOOKDYLQJ D YDOXH RI a : P 7KH UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ
RI12 VKRZVDVPDOOVHDVRQDOF\FOHZLWKaODUJHUYDOXHV
WKDQ DYHUDJH LQ ZLQWHUVSULQJ DQG a ORZHU YDOXHV LQ
DXWXPQ 7KH VHDVRQDO F\FOH LV QRW YHU\ ODUJH EHFDXVH WKH
ODUJHUIRUFLQJLQWKHVXPPHUFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHZLQWHUGXHWR
WKH ]HQLWK DQJOH GHSHQGHQFH LV FRPSHQVDWHG E\ WKH VPDOOHU
12 FROXPQV$VVXPLQJDODUJHUJURXQGDOEHGRRILQWKH
FDOFXODWLRQ LQFUHDVHV WKH HVWLPDWHG UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ E\ D
IDFWRU RI )RUFLQJ PDSV GHULYHG IURP WKH ,0$*(6
FDOFXODWLRQVDUHDERXWKDOIWKRVHGHULYHGIURP02=$57
7KHUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJRIWURSRVSKHULF12 DVHVWLPDWHGKHUH
LVEDVHGRQFORXGIUHHFRQGLWLRQV6LQFH WKH EXON RI WKH 12
UHVLGHV LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU EHORZ WKH FORXGV FORXGV
HIIHFWLYHO\ VKLHOG WKH VRODU UDGLDWLRQ IURP WKH 12 (YHQ
FORXGV ZLWK UHODWLYHO\ VPDOO RSWLFDO GHSWKV ZLOO UHGXFH WKH
JOREDOO\DYHUDJHGUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJ)RUH[DPSOHDFORXGZLWK
DQ RSWLFDO GHSWK RI ZLOO UHGXFH WKH UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ E\
7KXV DV D ORZHU OLPLW ZH FDQ DVVXPH WKDW FORXGV ZLOO
UHGXFH WKH HVWLPDWHG ORFDO UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ E\ QHDUO\ WKH
IUDFWLRQ RI ORFDO FORXG FRYHU $VVXPLQJ DQ DYHUDJH FORXG
FRYHU RI WKH PD[LPD LQ WKH ORFDO UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ RYHU
WKHLQGXVWULDOL]HGDUHDVEHFRPHVa:P ±
±
±
±
±
PHDVXUHGWURSRVSKHULFFROXPQDPRXQWVLQIHUUHGIURP*20(
DUH RI WKH VDPH RUGHU DV WKRVH FDOFXODWHG E\ 02=$57 RYHU
LQGXVWULDOL]HG DUHDV 7KH PD[LPXP YDOXHV LQ 02=$57 DUH
VLPLODU WR WKRVH RI *20( IRU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV D IDFWRU RI
VPDOOHU DQG (XURSH EXW D IDFWRU RI VPDOOHUIRU$VLDRQWKHVDPHJULG,IDYHUDJHGRYHUDODUJHU
DUHD VXEFRQWLQHQWDO WKH KLJK PD[LPXP YDOXHV LQ YHU\
ORFDOL]HG DUHDV LQ 02=$57 DQG LQ *20( DUH VRPHZKDW
UHGXFHG 7KH DJUHHPHQW EHWZHHQ WKH PRGHO FDOFXODWLRQV DQG
WKH *20( PHDVXUHPHQWV LV VRPHZKDW ZRUVH IRU 6RXWK
$PHULFDDQG$IULFDDUHDVZLWKORZHU12 FROXPQVLQZKLFK
ELRPDVV EXUQLQJ VDYDQQDK ILUHV DQG VRLO HPLVVLRQV DUH WKH
GRPLQDQW12 VRXUFHV7KHPD[LPXPYDOXHVRI,0$*(6DUH
VLJQLILFDQWO\VPDOOHUWKDQWKRVHRI*20(DERXWDIDFWRURI
IRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVaIRU(XURSHDQGaIRU$VLD
XVLQJWKHVDPHJULGIRUERWK
2YHU SROOXWHG DUHDV WKH ODUJHVW FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH WURSR
VSKHULF12 FROXPQRULJLQDWHV IURP WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU 7KH
ERXQGDU\ OD\HU LV GLIILFXOW WR PRGHO SURSHUO\ LQ D JOREDO
DWPRVSKHULF PRGHO EHFDXVH WKH FKHPLFDO DQG G\QDPLFDO
SURFHVVHVLQWKHERXQGDU\OD\HURFFXURQVSDWLDODQGWHPSRUDO
VFDOHV WKDW DUH WRR VPDOO IRU WKH UHODWLYHO\ FRDUVH VSDWLDO
UHVROXWLRQ DQG WLPH VWHS RI JOREDO PRGHOV 7KHUHIRUH PXFK
KLJKHU 12 FRQFHQWUDWLRQV PLJKW EH IRXQG RQ VPDOOHU VFDOHV
VHYHUDO NLORPHWHUV LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU WKDQ WKRVH FDOFX
ODWHG E\ JOREDO PRGHOV ZKLFK FDQ ORFDOO\ LQFUHDVH WKH
WURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVLJQLILFDQWO\
7KH HIIHFW RI D SRVVLEOH KHWHURJHQHRXV FRQYHUVLRQ RQ
VRRW RI +12 WR 12 RQ WKH PRGHOHG 12 FROXPQV LQ WKH
WURSRVSKHUH KDV EHHQ VWXGLHV ZLWK WKH ,0$*(6 PRGHO :H
IRXQGWKDWWKLVUHDFWLRQFDQLQFUHDVHWKHPRGHOHGWURSRVSKHULF
12 FROXPQV ZLWK LQ WKH HDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG
ZHVWHUQ(XURSHDQGDURXQGLQZHVWHUQ5XVVLD6LEHULD
DQG HDVWHUQ RI &KLQD 7KH PRGHOHG UDWLRV 12 12[ DQG
12[12\KDYHEHHQDQDO\]HGDQGIRXQGWREHFORVHWRREVHU
YDWLRQV RYHU HDVWHUQ 1RUWK $PHULFD DGGLQJ FRQILGHQFH WR
PRGHOFDOFXODWLRQVRIWKH12 FROXPQV
7KHPRGHOHGWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVIURP02=$57DV
ZHOO DV WKH FROXPQV PHDVXUHG E\ *20( DJUHH ZLWK 12
FROXPQV GHULYHG IURP REVHUYHG 12 PL[LQJ UDWLRV LQ WKH
ERXQGDU\ OD\HU LQ HDVWHUQ 1RUWK $PHULFD WKH 12 FROXPQV
IURP*20(DUH[ PROHFXOHVFP IURP02=$57
DUH [ PROHFXOHV FP DQG WKRVH GHULYHG IURP WKH
VXUIDFH PL[LQJ UDWLRV DUH [ PROHFXOHV FP ,Q
,0$*(6 12 LV WUDQVSRUWHG RXW RI WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU WRR
IDVW UHVXOWLQJ LQ ORZHU 12 FROXPQV [ PROHFXOHV
FP 4XDOLWDWLYHO\WKHSDWWHUQRIWURSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQV
DVPHDVXUHGE\*20(DJUHHZHOOZLWKWKHRQHVFDOFXODWHGE\
02=$57 DQG ,0$*(6 $ TXDQWLWDWLYH FRPSDULVRQ LV PRUH
GLIILFXOW EXW LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH *20( 12 FROXPQV WKRVH
FDOFXODWHG E\ 02=$57 DQG WKRVH GHULYHG VXUIDFH PL[LQJ
UDWLRVDUHDOORIWKHVDPHRUGHUIRUHDVWHUQ1RUWK$PHULFD
$QHVWLPDWHRIWKHUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJRI12 KDVEHHQPDGH
XVLQJ WKH FDOFXODWHG WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQV IURP
02=$57 7KH ORFDO PD[LPD RYHU WKH HDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV
DQG ZHVWHUQ (XURSH LQ WKH UDGLDWLYH IRUFLQJ RI WURSRVSKHULF
12 LV : P ZKLOH YDOXHV RI : P DUH
HVWLPDWHG RQ D FRQWLQHQWDO VFDOH FORXG IUHH FRQGLWLRQV 7KH
DOOVN\HVWLPDWHVDUHDERXWDIDFWRURIVPDOOHUWKDQWKHFOHDU
VN\YDOXHV7KHVHYDOXHVDUHRIWKHVDPHRUGHUDVWKHUDGLDWLYH
IRUFLQJ RI 1 2 EXW VPDOOHU WKDQ WKDW RI WKH KDORFDUERQV DQG
WURSRVSKHULFR]RQH7KHJOREDOO\DYHUDJHGUDGLDWLYHIRUFLQJLV
QHJOLJLEOHa:P [
&RQFOXVLRQV
7URSRVSKHULF12 FROXPQVGHULYHGIURP*20(GDWDKDYH
EHHQ FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKDW IURP PRGHO FDOFXODWLRQV E\ WZR
JOREDO WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO FKHPLVWU\ WUDQVSRUW PRGHOV
,0$*(6DQG02=$577KHJOREDOSDWWHUQVLQ12 FROXPQV
DUH ZHOO UHSURGXFHG E\ WKH PRGHOV ODUJH WURSRVSKHULF
FROXPQV RYHU WKH LQGXVWULDOL]HG DUHDV RI WKH HDVWHUQ 8QLWHG
6WDWHV(XURSHDQG$VLDDVZHOODVRYHUFLWLHVLQ$IULFDDQG
6RXWK $PHULFD LQFUHDVHG 12 FROXPQV DUH IRXQG RYHU WKH
ELRPDVV EXUQLQJ DUHDV RI $IULFD DQG 6RXWK $PHULFD 7KH
YDULDWLRQ WKURXJK WKH VHDVRQV LV DOVR VLPLODU LQ ERWK WKH
*20(DQGWKHPRGHOGDWDVHWVKDYLQJODUJHUYDOXHVLQZLQWHU
DQG VPDOOHU RQHV LQ VXPPHU 7KH TXDQWLWDWLYH FRPSDULVRQ LV
OLPLWHG E\ WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ WKH WURSRVSKHULF 12 FROXPQV
GHULYHGIURP*20(FDXVHGE\WKHXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHDLUPDVV
IDFWRUVDQGFORXGFRYHUDQGGXHWRWKHGLIILFXOW\RIPRGHOLQJ
WKHG\QDPLFVRIWKHERXQGDU\OD\HUSURSHUO\LQJOREDOPRGHOV
$WHQWDWLYHFRPSDULVRQRIWKHDEVROXWHYDOXHVVKRZVWKDWWKH
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
$FNQRZOHGJPHQWV :H ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN 0 %XFKZLW] 5
+DUOH\ ' 3DUULVK 9 5R]DQRY 6 6RORPRQ DQG 0 7UDLQHU IRU
(PPRQV/.HWDO&OLPDWRORJLHVRI12[DQG12\$FRPSDULVRQ
RIGDWDDQGPRGHOV$WPRV(QYLURQ
XVHIXO GLVFXVVLRQV DQG VXSSRUW LQ WKH ZRUN DQG -) 0OOHU IRU KLV
(PPRQV / . ' $ +DXJOXVWDLQH -) 0OOHU 0 $ &DUUROO *
KHOSZLWKWKH,0$*(6PRGHO3DUWRIWKHZRUNZDVSHUIRUPHGZKLOH
3 %UDVVHXU ' %UXQQHU - 6WDHKHOLQ 9 7KRXUHW DQG $
RQHRIWKHDXWKRUV.3IHLOVWLFNHUKHOGD1DWLRQDO5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO
0DUHQFR
12$$
WURSRVSKHULF R]RQH DQG LWV SUHFXUVRUV - *HRSK\V 5HV 5HVHDUFK
$VVRFLDWHVKLS
-
%XUURZV
DQG
$
5LFKWHU
DFNQRZOHGJH IXQGLQJ E\ WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI %UHPHQ WKH *HUPDQ
0LQLVWU\ IRU (GXFDWLRQ DQG 5HVHDUFK %0%) DQG WKH (XURSHDQ
&RPPLVVLRQ 3DUW RI WKLV ZRUN KDV DOVR EHHQ VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH
(XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ XQGHU WKH 32(7 SURMHFW FRQWUDFW (9.
'DWD
FRPSRVLWHV
RI
DLUERUQH
REVHUYDWLRQV
RI
(QYLURQPHQWDO
3URWHFWLRQ
$JHQF\
1DWLRQDO
$LU
4XDOLW\
DQG
(PLVVLRQV 7UHQGV 5HSRUW 86 (QYLURQ 3URW $JHQF\ 2II
RI$LU4XDOLW\3ODQQDQG6WDQG5HV7ULDQJOH3DUN1&
6RPHVLPXODWLRQVKDYHEHHQSHUIRUPHGXVLQJFRPSXWHU
*UDQLHU&-)0OOHU60DGURQLFKDQG*3%UDVVHXU3RVVLEOH
WLPH SURYLGHG E\ WKH 1DWLRQDO &HQWHU IRU $WPRVSKHULF 5HVHDUFK
FDXVHV IRU WKH GHFUHDVH LQ WKH JOREDO WURSRVSKHULF &2
1&$5ZKLFKLVVSRQVRUHGE\WKH1DWLRQDO6FLHQFH)RXQGDWLRQ
DEXQGDQFH $ WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO VWXG\ $WPRV (QYLURQ *UDQLHU & -) 0OOHU * 3pWURQ DQG * %UDVVHXU $ WKUHH
5HIHUHQFHV
GLPHQVLRQDOVWXG\RIWKHJOREDO&2EXGJHW&KHPRVSKHUH*OREDO
%RYHVPDQQ + - 3 %XUURZV 0 %XFKZLW] - )UHULFN 6 1RsO 9
9 5R]DQRY . 9 &KDQFH DQG $ 3 + *RHGH 6&,$0$&+< 0LVVLRQ REMHFWLYHV DQG PHDVXUHPHQW PRGHV - $WPRV 6FL %UDVVHXU * 3 ' $ +DXJOXVWDLQH 6 :DOWHUV 3 - 5DVFK -)
0OOHU & *UDQLHU DQG ;; 7LH 02=$57 $ JOREDO FKHPLFDO
WUDQVSRUW PRGHO IRU R]RQH DQG UHODWHG FKHPLFDO WUDFHUV 0RGHO
GHVFULSWLRQ-*HRSK\V5HV
%XUURZV - 3 : 6FKQHLGHU DQG . 9 &KDQFH µ*20( DQG
6&,$0$&+< 5HPRWH VHQVLQJ RI VWUDWRVSKHULF DQG WURSRVSKHULF
WUDFH JDVHV LQ &(& $LU 3ROOXWLRQ 5HVHDUFK 5HSRUW 3RODU
6WUDWRVSKHULF
2]RQH
3URFHHGLQJV
RI
WKH
)LUVW
(XURSHDQ
:RUNVKRS 2FWREHU 6FKOLHUVHH %DYHULD *HUPDQ\
HGLWHG E\ - $ 3\OH DQG 1 5 3 +DUULV SS 2IILFH IRU
3XEO(XURSHDQ&RPPXQLWLHV/X[HPERXUJ
%XUURZV - 3 HW DO *OREDO 2]RQH 0RQLWRULQJ ([SHULPHQW ,QWHULP
6FLHQFH 5HSRUW (XU 6SDFH $JHQF\ 6SHF 3XEO (6$ 63
%XUURZV - 3 $ 'HKQ % 'HWHUV 6 +LPPHOPDQQ $ 5LFKWHU 6
9RLJW DQG - 2USKDO $WPRVSKHULF UHPRWH VHQVLQJ UHIHUHQFH GDWD
IURP *20( 7HPSHUDWXUH GHSHQGHQW DEVRUSWLRQ FURVV VHFWLRQ
RI12LQWKHQPUDQJH-4XDQW6SHFWU5DGLDW7UDQV
D
%XUURZV - 3 7 .XURVX 5 *X]]L ( &DWWDQL 0 &DWWDQL 0
&HUYLQR &K /HYRQL DQG ) 7RUULFHOOD *20( FORXG DQG DHURVRO
GDWD
SURGXFWV
DOJRULWKP
GHYHORSPHQW
ILQDO
UHSRUW
FRQWUDFW
1/&1 (XU 6SDFH $JHQF\ 1RRUGZLMN 1HWKHUODQGV
E
Burrows, J. P., M. Buchwitz, M. Eisinger, V. Rozanov, M. Weber, A.
Richter, and A. Ladstätter-Weißenmayer, The Global Ozone
Monitoring Experiment (GOME), mission, instrument concept,
and first scientific results, in Proceedings of the Third ERS
th
rd
Symposium Florence 18 -23 of March 1997, Space at the Service
of our Environment, Eur. Space Agency Spec. Publ., ESA SP 414,
585-590, 1998c.
%XUURZV - 3 HW DO 7KH *OREDO 2]RQH 0RQLWRULQJ ([SHULPHQW
*20( 0LVVLRQ FRQFHSW DQG ILUVW VFLHQWLILF UHVXOWV - $WPRV
6FL
%XVVHPHU 0 'HU 5LQJ(IIHNW 8UVDFKHQ XQG (LQIOX‰ DXI GLH
VSHNWURVNRSLVFKH
0HVVXQJ
VWUDWRVSKlULVFKHU
6SXUHQVWRIIH
'LSORPDWKHVLV8QLYRI+HLGHOEHUJ+HLGHOEHUJ*HUPDQ\
&KDPHLGHV : / HW DO 2]RQH SUHFXUVRU UHODWLRQVKLSV LQ WKH
DPELHQWDWPRVSKHUH-*HRSK\V5HV
'H0RUH : % ' 0 *ROGHQ 5 ) +DPSVRQ & - +RZDUG & (
.ROE 0 - .XU\OR 0 - 0ROLQD $ 5 5DYLVKDQNDUD DQG 6 3
6DQGHU &KHPLFDO NLQHWLFV DQG SKRWRFKHPLFDO GDWD IRU XVH LQ
VWUDWRVSKHULF PRGHOLQJ 'DWD HYDOXDWLRQ -3/ 3XEO 'UHKHU ' % DQG 5 $ +DUOH\ $ IXHOEDVHG LQYHQWRU\ IRU KHDY\
GXW\ GLHVHO WUXFN HPLVVLRQV $LU :DVWH 0DQDJH $VVRF Eisinger, M., and J. P. Burrows, Tropospheric sulfur dioxide
observed by the ERS-2 GOME instrument, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
25, 4177-4180, 1998.
(LVLQJHU 0 - 3 %XUURZV DQG $ 5LFKWHU 6WXGLHV RI WKH SUHFLVLRQ
RI
*20(
LUUDGLDQFH
DQG
UDGLDQFH
SURGXFWV
DQG
*20(
PHDVXUHPHQWV RI 2&O2 DQG %U2 RYHU $QWDUFWLFD LQ (6$
3XEOLFDWLRQ
0RQLWRULQJ
'LYLVLRQ
:33
([SHULPHQW
*20(
*HRSK\VLFDO
*OREDO
9DOLGDWLRQ
2]RQH
&DPSDLJQ
HGLWHG E\ ) %HGQDU] SS (XU 6SDFH 5HV DQG 7HFKQRO
&HQW)UDVFDWL,WDO\
&KDQJH6FL
*UDQLHU & -) 0OOHU DQG * %UDVVHXU 7KH LPSDFW RI ELRPDVV
EXUQLQJ RQ WKH JOREDO EXGJHW RI R]RQH DQG R]RQH SUHFXUVRUV LQ
%LRPDVV %XUQLQJ DQG LWV ,QWHU5HODWLRQVKLS ZLWK WKH &OLPDWH
6\VWHP HGLWHG E\ - / ,QQHV 0 %HQLVWRQ DQG 0 9HUVWUDWH SS
.OXZHU$FDG1RUZHOO0DVVD
*UDQLHU & * 3pWURQ -) 0OOHU DQG * %UDVVHXU 7KH LPSDFW RI
QDWXUDO DQG DQWKURSRJHQLF K\GURFDUERQV RQ WKH WURSRVSKHULF
EXGJHW RI FDUERQ PRQR[LGH $WPRV (QYLURQ E
+DR : 0 DQG 0 + /LX 6SDWLDO DQG WHPSRUDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI
WURSLFDO ELRPDVV EXUQLQJ *OREDO %LRJHRFKHP &\FOHV +DXJOXVWDLQH ' $ % $ 5LGOH\ 6 6RORPRQ 3 * +HVV DQG 6
0DGURQLFK +1212[ UDWLR LQ WKH UHPRWH WURSRVSKHUH GXULQJ
0/23(; (YLGHQFH IRU QLWUL[ DFLG UHGXFWLRQ RQ FDUERQDFHRXV
DHURVROV"*HRSK\V5HV/HWW
+DXJOXVWDLQH ' $ * 3 %UDVVHXU 6 :DOWHUV 3 - 5DVFK -)
0OOHU / . (PPRQV DQG 0 $ &DUUROO 02=$57 $ JOREDO
FKHPLFDO WUDQVSRUW PRGHO IRU R]RQH DQG UHODWHG FKHPLFDO WUDFHUV
0RGHO UHVXOWV DQG HYDOXDWLRQ - *HRSK\V 5HV Hegels, E., D. Perner, P. J. Crutzen, J. P. Burrows, A. LadstätterWeißenmayer, M. Eisinger, J. Callies, and W. Balzer, Global
Ozone Monitoring Experiment: first BrO measurements, in XVIII
Quadrennial Ozone Sympoisum 1996 L’Aquila Italy Atmospheric
Ozone: Proceedings of the Quadrennial Ozone Symposium 1996
Italy 12-21 September 1996, edited by R. D. Bojkov and G.
Visconti, pp. 293-296, Parco Scientifico e Technologico
d’Abruzzio, L’Aquila, Italy, 1998.
+ROWVODJ $ DQG % %RYLOOH /RFDO YHUVXV QRQORFDO ERXQGDU\OD\HU
GLIIXVLRQLQDJOREDOFOLPDWHPRGHO-&OLP
+RRJHQ 5 9 9 5R]DQRY DQG - 3 %XUURZV 2]RQH SURILOHV IURP
*20(VDWHOOLWHGDWDDOJRULWKPGHVFULSWLRQDQGILUVWYDOLGDWLRQ -
*HRSK\V5HV
+RURZLW] / : DQG ' - -DFRE *OREDO LPSDFW RI IRVVLO IXHO
FRPEXVWLRQ RQ DWPRVSKHULF 12[ - *HRSK\V 5HV ,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO 3DQHO RQ &OLPDWH &KDQJH &OLPDWH &KDQJH 7KH 6FLHQFH RI &OLPDWH &KDQJH &DPEULGJH 8QLY 3UHVV 1HZ
<RUN
-lKQH%6LJQDOSURFHVVLQJDQGSDWWHUQUHFRJQLWLRQLQ+DQGERRNRI
&RPSXWHU 9LVLRQ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQV YRO HGLWHG E\ % -lKQH +
+DXVVlFNHUDQG3*HL‰OHU$FDGHPLF6DQ'LHJR&DOLI
.DWR1DQG+$NLPRWR$QWKURSRJHQLFHPLVVLRQVRI62DQG12[
LQ$VLD(PLVVLRQLQYHQWRULHV$WPRV(QYLURQ3DUW$
.LHKO - 7 7 / 6FKQHLGHU 5 : 3RUWPDQQ DQG 6 6RORPRQ
&OLPDWH IRUFLQJ GXH WR WURSRVSKHULF DQG VWUDWRVSKHULF R]RQH -
*HRSK\V5HV
.UDXV $ % ) 5RKUHU ( 6 *UREOHU DQG ' (KKDOW 7KH JOREDO
WURSRVSKHULFGLVWULEXWLRQRI12[HVWLPDWHGE\DWKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO
FKHPLFDO WUDFHU PRGHO - *HRSK\V 5HV .XURVX 7 9 9 5R]DQRY DQG - 3 %XUURZV 3DUDPHWHUL]DWLRQ
VFKHPHVIRUWHUUHVWULDOZDWHUFORXGVLQWKHUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUPRGHO
*20(75$1-*HRSK\V5HV
/DPDUTXH -) * 3 %UDVVHXU DQG 3 * +HVV 7KUHHGLPHQVLRQDO
VWXG\RIWKHUHODWLYHFRQWULEXWLRQVRIWKHGLIIHUHQWQLWURJHQVRXUFHV
LQWKHWURSRVSKHUH-*HRSK\V5HV
/DU\'-57RXPL$0/HH01HZFKXUFK03LUUHDQG-%
9(/'(56(7$/*/2%$/7523263+(5,&12 &2/801',675,%87,216
5HQDUG &DUERQ DHURVROV DQG DWPRVSKHULF SKRWRFKHPLVWU\ -
*HRSK\V5HV
/HXH & 4XDQWLWDWLYH $QDO\VLV RI 12[ HPLVVLRQV IURP *20(
VDWHOOLWH LPDJH VHTXHQFHV 3K' WKHVLV 8QLY RI +HLGHOEHUJ
+HLGHOEHUJ*HUPDQ\
5R]DQRY 9 ' 'LHEHO 5 - ' 6SXUU DQG - 3 %XUURZV
*20(75$1 $ UDGLDWLYH WUDQVIHU PRGHO IRU WKH VDWHOOLWH SURMHFW
*20( WKH SODQH SDUDOOHO YHUVLRQ - *HRSK\V 5HV 6RORPRQ 6 5 : 3RUWPDQQ 5 : 6DQGHUV - 6 'DQLHO :
/HXH & 0 :HQLJ DQG 8 3ODWW 5HWULHYDO RI WURSRVSKHULF 12
0DGVHQ % %DUWUDP DQG ( * 'XWWRQ 2Q WKH UROH RI QLWURJHQ
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ IURP PXOWLVSHFWUDO LPDJH VHTXHQFHV LQ +DQGERRN
GLR[LGHLQWKHDEVRUSWLRQRIVRODUUDGLDWLRQ-*HRSK\V5HV
RI &RPSXWHU 9LVLRQ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQV YRO FKDS HGLWHG E\
%-lKQH++DXVVlFNHUDQG3*HL‰OHUSS $FDGHPLF
6DQ'LHJR&DOLI
/HXH & 0 :HQLJ 7 :DJQHU 2 .OLPP 8 3ODWW DQG % -lKQH
4XDQWLWDWLYH DQDO\VLV RI 12[ HPLVVLRQV IURP *20( VDWHOOLWH
LPDJHVHTXHQFHV-*HRSK\V5HV
/HY\ ,, + : - 0R[LP $ $ .ORQHFNL DQG 3 6 .DVLEKDWOD
6WDPQHV . 6 & 7VD\ : :LVFRPEH DQG . -D\DZHHUD $
QXPHULFDOO\
VWDEOH
DOJRULWKP
IRU
GLVFUHWHRUGLQDWHPHWKRG
UDGLDWLYH WUDQVIHU LQ VFDWWHULQJ DQG HPLWWLQJ OD\HUHG PHGLD $SSO
2SW
7XUPDQ % 1 DQG % & (GJDU *OREDO OLJKWQLQJ GLVWULEXWLRQV DW
GDZQDQGGXVN-*HRSK\V5HV
6LPXODWHG WURSRVSKHULF 12[ ,WV HYDOXDWLRQ JOREDO GLVWULEXWLRQ
9DONV 3 - 0 DQG * - 0 9HOGHUV 7KH SUHVHQWGD\ DQG IXWXUH
DQG LQGLYLGXDO VRXUFH FRQWULEXWLRQV - *HRSK\V 5HV LPSDFWRI12[HPLVVLRQVIURPVXEVRQLFDLUFUDIWRQWKHDWPRVSKHUH
LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH LPSDFW RI 12[ VXUIDFH VRXUFHV $QQ *HRSK\V
/RJDQ - $ 0 - 3DUWKHU 6 & :RIV\ DQG 0 % 0F(OUR\
7URSRVSKHULF FKHPLVWU\ $ JOREDO SHUVSHFWLYH - *HRSK\V 5HV
0DUTXDUG / & 7 :DJQHU DQG 8 3ODWW ,PSURYHG DLU PDVV IDFWRU
9HOGHUV * - 0 DQG & *UDQLHU 6HQVLWLYLW\ RI ZDVKRXW RQ
+1212[ UDWLR LQ DWPRVSKHULF FKHPLVWU\ PRGHOV - *HRSK\V
5HV
FRQFHSWV IRU VFDWWHUHG UDGLDWLRQ GLIIHUHQWLDO RSWLFDO DEVRUSWLRQ
9RXQWDV 0 9 9 5R]DQRY - 3 %XUURZV 5LQJ HIIHFW ,PSDFW RI
VSHFWURVFRS\ RI DWPRVSKHULF VSHFLHV - *HRSK\V 5HV URWDWLRQDO 5DPDQ VFDWWHULQJ RQ UDGLDWLYH WUDQVIHU LQ HDUWK¶V
0R[LP : - + /HY\ ,, DQG 3 6 .DVLEKDWOD 6LPXODWHG JOREDO
WURSRVSKHULF 3$1 ,WV WUDQVSRUW DQG LPSDFW RQ 12[ - *HRSK\V
5HV
0OOHU -) *HRJUDSKLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG VHDVRQDO YDULDWLRQ RI
VXUIDFH HPLVVLRQV DQG GHSRVLWLRQ YHORFLWLHV RI DWPRVSKHULF WUDFH
JDVHV-*HRSK\V5HV
DWPRVSKHUH-4XDQW6SHFWU5DGLDW7UDQV
:DJQHU 7 6DWHOOLWH REVHUYDWLRQV RI DWPRVSKHULF KDORJHQ R[LGHV
3K'WKHVLV8QLYRI+HLGHOEHUJ+HLGHOEHUJ*HUPDQ\
:DJQHU 7 DQG 8 3ODWW 6DWHOOLWH PDSSLQJ RI HQKDQFHG %U2
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHWURSRVSKHUH1DWXUH
:DJQHU 7 & /HXH . 3IHLOVWLFNHU DQG 8 3ODWW 0HDVXUHPHQW RI
DWPRVSKHULF %U2 DQG 2&O2 E\ *20( LQ 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH
0OOHU -) DQG * %UDVVHXU ,0$*(6 $ WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO
(XURSHDQ6\PSRVLXPRQ$WPRVSKHULF0HDVXUHPHQWVIURP 6SDFH
FKHPLFDO WUDQVSRUW PRGHO RI WKH JOREDO WURSRVSKHUH - *HRSK\V
(6$06 -DQXDU\ SS (XU 6SDFH 5HV
5HV
1RHO 6 0 %XFKZLW] + %RYHQVPDQQ 5 +RRJHQ DQG -
DQG7HFKQRO&HQW1RRUGZLMN1HWKHUODQGV
:DQJ < - $ /RJDQ DQG ' - -DFRE *OREDO VLPXODWLRQ RI
3%XUURZV $WPRVSKHULF ZDWHU YDSRXU DPRXQWV UHWULHYHG IURP
WURSRVSKHULF212[K\GURFDUERQFKHPLVWU\ 0RGHO HYDOXDWLRQ
*20(VDWHOOLWHGDWD*HRSK\V5HV/HWW
DQG JOREDO R]RQH EXGJHW - *HRSK\V 5HV 2OLYLHU - * - $ ) %RXZPDQ & : 0 YDQ GHU 0DDV - - 0
%HUGRZVNL&9HOGW - 3 - %ORRV $ - + 9LVVFKHGLMN 3 < -
:HQLJ 0 & /HXH % -lKQH DQG 8 3ODWW &ORXG FODVVLILFDWLRQ
=DQGYHOG DQG - / +DYHUVODJ 'HVFULSWLRQ RI ('*$5 YHUVLRQ
XVLQJ LPDJH VHTXHQFHV RI *20( GDWD LQ 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH
$ VHW RI JOREDO HPLVVLRQ LQYHQWRULHV RI JUHHQKRXVH JDVHV DQG
(XURSHDQ6\PSRVLXPRQ$WPRVSKHULF0HDVXUHPHQWVIURP 6SDFH
R]RQHGHSOHWLQJVXEVWDQFHVIRUDOODQWKURSRJHQLFDQGPRVWQDWXUDO
(6$06 -DQXDU\ SS (XU 6SDFH 5HV
VRXUFHV RQ D SHU FRXQWU\ EDVLV DQG RQ [ JULG 5,90 5HS
1DWO ,QVW RI 3XEOLF +HDOWK DQG WKH (QYLURQ
%LOWKRYHQ1HWKHUODQGV
3DUULVK ' ' HW DO 7KH WRWDO UHDFWLYH R[LGL]HG QLWURJHQ OHYHOV DQG
DQG7HFKQRO&HQW1RRUGZLMN1HWKHUODQGV
:RUOG 0HWHRURORJLFDO 2UJDQL]DWLRQ 6FLHQWLILF DVVHVVPHQW RI R]RQH
GHSOHWLRQ HGLWHG E\ ' $OEULWWRQ HW DO 5HS *OREDO
2]RQH5HVDQG0RQLW3URM*HQHYD
WKHSDUWLWLRQLQJEHWZHHQWKHLQGLYLGXDOVSHFLHVDWVL[UXUDO VLWHV LQ
HDVWHUQ1RUWK$PHULFD-*HRSK\V5HV
3HQQHU - ( ' - %HUJPDQQ - - :DOWRQ ' .LQQLVRQ 0 -
3UDWKHU ' 5RWPDQ & 3ULFH . ( 3LFNHULQJ DQG 6 /
%DXJKFXP $Q HYDOXDWLRQ RI XSSHU WURSRVSKHULF 12[ ZLWK WZR
PRGHOV-*HRSK\V5HV
3KDP 0 -) 0OOHU * %UDVVHXU & *UDQLHU DQG * 0HJLH $
WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO VWXG\ RI WKH WURSRVSKHULF VXOIXU F\FOH -
*HRSK\V5HV
3ODWW 8 'LIIHUHQWLDO 2SWLFDO $EVRUSWLRQ 6SHFWURVFRS\ '2$6 LQ
$LU 0RQLWRULQJ E\ 6SHFWURVFRSLF 7HFKQLTXHV FKDS HGLWHG
E\0:6LJULVWSS-RKQ:LOH\1HZ<RUN
3ULFH & DQG ' 5LQG $ VLPSOH OLJKWQLQJ SDUDPHWHUL]DWLRQ IRU
FDOFXODWLQJ JOREDO OLJKWQLQJ GLVWULEXWLRQV - *HRSK\V 5HV BBBBBBBBBBB
- 3 %XUURZV DQG $ 5LFKWHU ,QVWLWXWH RI (QYLURQPHQWDO 3K\VLFV
8QLYHUVLW\RI%UHPHQ32%R[%UHPHQ*HUPDQ\
&
*UDQLHU
$HURQRP\
/DERUDWRU\
12$$
. 3IHLOVWLFNHU 8 3ODWW 7 :DJQHU DQG 0 :HQLJ ,QVWLWXW IU
+HLGHOEHUJ*HUPDQ\
5 : 3RUWPDQQ $HURQRP\ /DERUDWRU\ 12$$ %URDGZD\
%RXOGHU&2
* - 0 9HOGHUV $LU 5HVHDUFK /DERUDWRU\ 1DWLRQDO ,QVWLWXWH RI
3XEOLF +HDOWK DQG WKH (QYLURQPHQW 5,90 32 %R[ %$
%LOWKRYHQ1HWKHUODQGVJXXVYHOGHUV#ULYPQO
REVHUYHG IURP *20( LQ WKH 1RUWKHUQ +HPLVSKHUH LQ *HRSK\V5HV/HWW
PHDVXUHPHQWV$GY6SDFH5HVLQSUHVV
%URDGZD\
8PZHOWSK\VLN 8QLYHUVLW\ RI +HLGHOEHUJ ,P 1HXHQKHLPHU )HOG 5LFKWHU $ 0 (LVLQJHU ) :LWWURFN DQG - 3 %XUURZV %U2
5LFKWHU $ DQG - 3 %XUURZV 7URSRVSKHULF 12 IURP *20(
%RXOGHU&2
5HFHLYHG0D\UHYLVHG2FWREHU
DFFHSWHG1RYHPEHU