SOMALIA Food Security Alert
January 16, 2017
Severe drought, rising prices, continued access limitations, and dry forecasts suggest Famine is
possible in 2017
Following a poor April to June 2016 Gu season and failed
October to December 2016 Deyr season, food security has
deteriorated significantly across Somalia, with an increasing
number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency
(IPCPhase4)acutefoodinsecurity,andinneedofemergency
food assistance. Areas of greatest concern include southern
agriculturalandagropastoralareasandnortheasternpastoral
areas. Food security is expected to further deteriorate over
the coming months with improvements not expected until
May/June in pastoral areas and June/July in agropastoral
areas, at the earliest. If the 2017 Gu season is also poor, as
currently forecast, the severity and magnitude of food
insecuritywillbeevenlargerthancurrentlyanticipated.Ina
worst-casescenariowherethe2017Guseasonperformsvery
poorly,purchasingpowerdeclinestolevelsseenin2010/11,
andhumanitarianassistanceisunabletoreachpopulationsin
need,Famine(IPCPhase5)wouldbeexpected.
The October to December 2016 Deyr season performed
poorly across Somalia, with large areas of the country
receivinglessthan40percentofusualrainfall(Figure1).This
failed season follows below-average April to June rainfall
which resulted in poor pasture conditions and Gu-season
harvestsinthesouththatwere20percentbelowtherecent
five-year average and 50 percent below the 1995-2015
average. In Bay Region, 2016 was the driest calendar year
since2001.InBariRegion,2016wasthedriestcalendaryear
since 1985. The level of the Shabelle River is nearly 60
percentbelowaverageforthistimeofyear,limitingaccessto
waterforlivestockandcropproduction.
Figure 1.October-December2016rainfallasa
percentageofthe1981-2010average
Source: FEWS NET/USGS
Figure 2.Retailpriceofredsorghum,Baidoa,Bay
Inpastorallivelihoodzones,pastureandwaterresourcesare
verylimited,especiallyincentralandnortheasternareas.This
isleadingtoatypicallivestockmigrationandlivestockdeaths.
Large-scale water trucking is also ongoing in these regions,
forcing many households to redirect limited income to buy
water for themselves and their livestock. In agricultural and
agropastoral areas, harvest prospects are poor in both
surplus producing areas (i.e. Middle/Lower Shabelle and Bay
Regions), and in more marginal cropping areas of the south
Source: FSNAU
(e.g.,Hiran,Bakool,MiddleJuba,andGedoRegions).Overall,
JanuaryDeyrharvestsarelikelytobe60-70percentbelowthefive-yearaverageandamongthelowestonrecord.
Theeffectsoftwoconsecutiveseasonsofbelow-averageproductionhavestartedtoputupwardpressureonstaplecereal
prices.ThepriceofmaizeinQorioley(LowerShabelleRegion)isnow51percentabovethefive-yearaverage,andtheprice
FEWS NET Somalia
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FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the
view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government
SOMALIA Food Security Alert
January 16, 2017
ofsorghuminBaidoa(BayRegion)is88percentaboveaverage.Pricesforthesecommoditiesarelikelytoincreasefurther
overthecomingsixmonths,possiblyreachinglevelssimilartothoseseenin2011(Figure2).Conversely,livestockprices
and casual labor wage levels are both decreasing due to poor livestock conditions and limited agricultural labor
opportunities.Asaresult,householdpurchasingpowerisfallingandmanypoorhouseholdsarefacingincreasingdifficulty
accessing sufficient food to meet their basic needs. In Baidoa, for example, wages from one day of labor purchased 10
kilogramsofredsorghuminDecember,downfrom12kilogramsthepreviousmonthand18kilogramsinDecember2015.
Furtherdeteriorationinbothlivestock-to-cerealandwage-to-cerealtermsoftradeisexpected.
Giventheimpactsoftwoconsecutivebelow-averagerainyseasonsoncropproduction,pastureandwateravailability,and
household purchasing power, the size of the food insecure population (IPC Phase 3 or higher) is likely to increase
significantlyfromthe1.14millionpeopleidentifiedbyFSNAUandFEWSNETasacutelyfoodinsecurebetweenAugustand
December 2016. The annual Post-Deyr analysis has recently completed and updated estimates of the food insecure
populationareexpectedbyearlyFebruary.Innorthernandcentralregions,theareaofgreatestconcernistheNorthern
Inland Pastoral livelihood zone. In this livelihood zone, atypically high numbers of livestock have already died and poor
householdsareexpectedtohavefewsaleableanimalsduringtheJanuarytoMarchleanseason,significantlylimitingthe
incomeavailabletopurchasefood.Totallivestocklossandpastoraldestitutionwasreportedinsomepartsofthislivelihood
zone.Inthesouth,theBayHigh-PotentialAgropastoralandtheBay/BakoolLowPotentialAgropastorallivelihoodzonesare
of highest concern. Poor households in these areas had little to no harvests, typically their main source of food for
consumption and income from sales. In addition, poor households have few livestock and are especially reliant on wage
labor, an income source that can decline quickly during severe droughts. Distress migration out of rural areas of Bay
towardsIDPsettlementsinBaidoaandMogadishuhasalreadybeenreported.
International climate center forecasts for the 2017 April-June Gu season are inconclusive. However, a series of analyses
conductedbytheU.S.GeologicalSurvey(USGS)andtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)indicate
thatadry2017Guseasonislikely,thoughtheseverityofthisdrynessisunknown.Inaworst-casescenario,wherethe2017
Gu season performs very poorly, purchasing power declines to levels seen in 2010/11, and humanitarian assistance is
unabletoreachpopulationsinneed,Famine(IPCPhase5)wouldbeexpected.Duringthe2011Famine,excessmortality
increasedsharplybetweenAprilandMay,whenalatestarttotheGufollowedafailedDeyrseason.
Urgentactiontorampupassistanceprovisionandensureadequatehumanitarianaccessisneededtoaddressrisinglevels
offoodinsecurityandmitigatethepotentialforlarge-scalelossoflife.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
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