A Perspective on
Regional Power Planning
NW#Clean#&#Affordable#Energy#
Conference!
Pat!Smith!
Northwest!Power!and!Conserva3on!Council!
May!2,!2014!–!Helena,!MT!
Sixth Northwest Power Plan
Resource Additions
Cumulative Additions
(Average Megawatts)
9000
Demand
Response
8000
7000
Simple-Cycle
Gas
6000
5000
4000
Combined-Cycle
Gas
3000
Renewables
2000
Energy
Efficiency
1000
0
2009
2014
2019
2024
2
2!
Energy Efficiency Achievements Have
Exceeded Plan Targets Since 2005
Annual!Savings!(aMW)!
300!
Target!
250!
234!
Actual!
!203!
200!
150!
!135!
!
!147!
231!
255!
277!
247!
!
!
100!
50!
0!
2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014!
3
Since 1980, 60 Percent of Growth in Demand
Has Been Met With Energy Efficiency
30!
Average'Gigawa+s'
25!
20!
15!
Efficiency!Resource!
10!
Load!Net!of!Efficiency!
5!
1980!Load!
0!
1980!
1985!
1990!
1995!
2000!
2005!
2010!
4
Since 1978, Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes &
Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over
5,300 Average Megawatts of Savings
Cumula3ve!Savings!(MWa)!
6,000
5,000
Federal!Standards!
State!Codes!
4,000
NEEA!Programs!
3,000
BPA!and!U3lity!Programs!
2,000
1,000
-
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
5
2011
5,300 Average Megawatts
!  Enough!electricity!to!serve!the!en3re!state!of!Oregon!
!!!!!!!MT!Terms:!!2.5!capacity!output!of!Colstrip!1X4!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Three!3mes!MT!peak!load!of!NW!Energy!
!  Saved!the!region’s!electricity!consumers!roughly!!
$1.4!billion!to!over!$3!billion!in!2012!
!
!  Lowered!region’s!2012!carbon!emissions!by!an!
es3mated!20.8!million!metric!tonnes!
6
Energy Efficiency Is Now The Northwest’s
Second Largest Power Resource
Natural'Gas'
7%'
Nuclear'
3%'
Wind'
6%'
Biomass'
1%'
Hydropower'
53%'
Energy''
Efficiency'
16%'
Coal'
12%'
Based!on!Actual!Hydro!Condi3ons!!
and!Genera3on!Dispatch!in!2012!
7
Pacific Northwest Generating Capacity
Additions and Retirements 1995-2012
8
Pacific Northwest Cumulative Generating
Capacity Additions 1995-2012
9
Reductions to Regional Hydroelectric
Generating Resources Since 1995
! 
! 
! 
! 
Winter peaking capacity: 5,400 megawatts
Summer peaking capacity : 5,100 megawatts
Average annual energy: 400 average megawatts
Above reductions include:
•  Operations for fish and wildlife (flow augmentation,
bypass spill)
•  Within-hour balancing reserves (for wind and load
variations)
10
Pacific Northwest Electricity Loads
Annual Average Megawatts 1995-2012
21,000'
18,000'
15,000'
Actual!System!Loads!
WeatherXNormalized!Loads!
12,000'
9,000'
6,000'
Actual Load (Net of Direct Service Industries)
Weather-Normalized Load (Net of DSIs)
Average Annual Growth Rate
0.40%
0.46%
3,000'
2012'
2011'
11
2010'
2009'
2008'
2007'
2006'
2005'
2004'
2003'
2002'
2001'
2000'
1999'
1998'
1997'
1996'
1995'
0'
Pacific Northwest Electricity Loads
Winter Peak Megawatts 1995-2012
36,000'
30,000'
24,000'
18,000'
12,000'
Average Annual Growth Rate -0.10%
6,000'
2012'
2011'
12
2010'
2009'
2008'
2007'
2006'
2005'
2004'
2003'
2002'
2001'
2000'
1999'
1998'
1997'
1996'
1995'
0'
Seventh Power Plan – Timeframes
!  Q2 -14: Select vendor for Regional Portfolio Model (RPM)
!  Q3 -14: Environmental Methodology Approved
Fish and Wildlife Program Adopted
!  Q4 -14: Demand & Load Forecast Updated
Conservation Supply Curves Updated
!  Q1 -15: Demand Response Supply Curves
!  Q2 -15: First Round RPM Modeling Analysis
!  Q3 -15: Approval of Resource Strategy
Draft Plan Approved for Comment Period
!  Q4 – 15: Final Plan Approved
13
Topics for the Seventh Power Plan
Early Focus Issues
!  Regional needs for energy, peaking capacity and system
flexibility
!  Changing paradigm for energy efficiency
•  Adapting to continuing slow growth in demand
•  Utility business model, rate impacts/rate design
!  Renewable resources development, integration and
system balancing
!  Coordination of planning activities
•  Power and transmission systems
•  Power and natural gas systems
•  Northwest and California (including solar)
14
Topics for the Seventh Power Plan
Mid-Term Assessment
!  Greenhouse gas emissions
•  Market and industry trends (e.g., coal plant retirements)
•  Incorporation of environmental costs and benefits
!  Changing paradigm for energy efficiency
•  Adapting to continuing slow growth in demand
•  Utility business model, rate impacts/rate design
•  Utilities face differing circumstances
!  Distributed generation
!  Avoided cost benchmarks to evaluate new resources
15
Preparations to Develop the
Seventh Northwest Power Plan
!  Symposiums
!  Primers
!  Advisory committee meetings
!  Power Committee and Council meetings
!  Redevelopment of regional portfolio model software
!  Environmental methodology
16
Columbia River Treaty
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
17
MulKLstep'Process'
1: Regional
Recommendation
2: National
Interest
Determination
US
Entity
Region
Nation
Stakeholders
Sovereigns
U.S. Entity
3: Decision to
Negotiate
Negotiate
???
Circular 175 Process
Dept. of State
w/ Interagency
Policy Committee
Dept. of State
18
Columbia River Storage Facilities
Principal'Issues'
!  Post-2024 Flood Control Operations !  More equitable sharing of power
benefits
!  Further incorporation of EcosystemBased Function
20
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