SMALLCAP
QUICK NOTE
February 25, 2015
Goodluck Steel Tubes Ltd.
RETAIL RESEARCH
HDFCSEC Scrip Code
GOOLUCEQNR
Industry
Metal
Price Chart
1-530 655.G OOD LUC K ST.BSE - 2 3/02/15
Trend7
110
105
100
D
95
90
CMP
Rs.75.85
Recommendation
Buy at CMP and add on declines
Add on Dips
Rs 60-66
Sequential Targets
Rs 93-114
Time Horizon
2-4 quarters
Goodluck Steel Tubes, an engineering conglomerate is a diversified engineering product manufacturing company, a steel
processor not a steel manufacturer. It was incorporated in 1986.
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Stock Details
BSE Code
530655
NSE Code
GOODLUCK
Bloomberg
Price (Rs) as on 24 Feb
2015
GLST IN
75.85
Equity Capital (Rs Cr)
2
Eq. Shares O/s (Cr)
1.99
155.45
Book Value (Rs)
Avg. Volume (52 Week)
52 wk H/L (Rs)
72.2
93086
89/16
Shareholding Pattern
(As on Dec 31, 2014)
Indian Promoters
Institutions
Non Institutions
Total
Deepak Kolhe
Research Analyst
[email protected]
RETAIL RESEARCH
•
•
3.98
Face Value (Rs)
Market Cap (Rs.)
•
Resumption of growth after 12 quarters of flat sales and profit growth.
Rising dividend payout indicates better prospects for the company and the management seems willing to share growing
cash flow with minority shareholders.
The Company plans to invest about Rs.200 crores in the next three years towards setting up a new forging facility and
enhancing capacity of its structural division. The work on two Greenfield plants would start next year and both plants will
commence production in 1-2 years time. This will grow the topline and margins for the company.
As per company’s expansion plan it has already identified four sectors like Railways, Auto, Energy and Defense for
improving the margin profile. It has already started work on this.
It withstood bad times successfully and is now prepared for better times.
The company has strong fundamental metrics like Debt to Equity, Dividend yield, Improving ROE and a good interest
coverage ratio despite being present in a commodity type of business. The company has debt to equity ratio of 1.82x,
which is manageable and long term debt to equity of the company is very low.
61.9
1.9
36.1
100.0
Risks/Concerns
•
•
•
•
•
Slowdown in domestic economy, exchange rate fluctuations and competition from others market players are some of the
key concerns faced by the company.
Fluctuation in forex and raw material prices will have negative impact on the company margins
Change in government policies
High working capital cycle
Volume expansion from existing facilities is not possible beyond a point as most capacities are working at 80-85%
utilization. However the company is looking at shifting production to high value products.
Conclusion and Recommendation
The company is in expansion mode which will lead to increase in topline and bottomline in coming years. The company is in
good shape to take the advantage of increasing spending from sectors like Auto, Railways and Defense. We believe 3 phase
expansion plan will have significant impact on the company's performance over the next 2-3 years. At the current market price
Rs.75.85, the company is trading P/E multiple at 4.8xFY16E EPS and 3.7xFY17E EPS. We value the company at 4.5x and 5.5x its
FY17 EPS to arrive at the sequential target prices of Rs.93 and Rs.114. We feel investors could buy the stock at the CMP and add
on dips to Rs.60-66 band (~3xFY17E EPS) for the above target prices in 2-4 quarters.
Page | 1
Financial Summary
Particulars
Net Sales
Change in %
Operating Profit
OPM (%)
Adjusted PAT
APATM (%)
EPS (Rs)
Rs Lakh
FY13
95324.4
40.4%
7426.2
7.8%
2194.2
2.3%
10.4
FY14
97542.7
2.3%
7098.4
7.3%
1771.4
1.8%
8.4
FY15E
111000.0
13.8%
8700.0
7.8%
2900.0
2.6%
13.2
FY16E
125000.0
12.6%
10120.0
8.1%
3500.0
2.8%
15.9
FY17E
147000.0
17.6%
12490.0
8.5%
4560.0
3.1%
20.7
(Source: Company, HDFCSec)
Company Profile
Good Luck Steel Tubes Limited (GLST) is a listed Company incorporated in 1986. The Company belongs to Good luck Group is one
of India’s leading and one of the fastest growing business groups having over 2000 employees and multi location plants/units. By
recognizing the contribution of the company in exports, the Government of India has recognized it as an export house. The
company has been awarded many awards for excellence in export for last 10 years continuously.
At present the Company is engaged in the production and export of Black and Galvanized pipes and tubes, cold rolled coils, strips
& galvanized sheet/ roofing sheets, transmission towers, bright bars, industrial forgings and flanges, auto tubes etc. All these are
value added products for infrastructure projects and new emerging sectors as auto and oil pipe lines. This line of business offers
excellent scope in the domestic as well as export market. Since inception, it is making profit and dividend paying company.
Recently the Company undertook the expansion to increase manufacturing facility for producing ERW and CDW tubes to meet
the increased demand of auto industry globally. The expanded plant went into commercial production in Jan 2015.
Segment breakup
Particulars
Segment revenue
Pipe/Sheet/Structure
Engineering Goods
Total
Less: Intersegment revenue
Net Sale
Segment result
Pipe/Sheet/Structure
Engineering Goods
Total EBIT
RETAIL RESEARCH
Rs Cr
Q3FY15
Q3FY14
Y-o-Y %
Q2FY15
Q-o-Q %
215.50
46.19
261.69
0.06
261.62
199.03
54.47
253.50
0.43
253.07
8%
-15%
3%
-86%
3%
219.63
56.20
275.83
0.03
275.80
-2%
-18%
-5%
107%
-5%
15.80
2.57
18.37
11.01
2.71
13.73
43%
-5%
34%
14.83
2.96
17.79
7%
-13%
3%
Page | 2
Well diversified product line
GLST’s product basket is a bouquet of different products i.e. a mix of high yielding low volume & low yielding high volume
products. It is currently working in five verticals.
Goodluck Steel
Structure Tubing &
boring Tubes
Cold rolled annealed
sheet & roofing sheet
Structure
Auto Tubes
Forging
Structure tubing & boring tubes and Cold rolled annealed sheet & roofing sheet are low yielding & high volume segments,
whereas remaining are high yielding low volume segments. As a strategy the company is focusing on Structure, Auto tubes and
Forging. Since these 3 verticals are high yielding, the management is adding capacity in these 3 verticals only. As a first step Auto
tube capacity has been expanded by 30,000 MT pa recently (at a capex of Rs.98 cr) & now total capacity is 60,000 MT/annum.
This expansion will improve topline and bottom line from Q4FY15. A large part of the incremental production is targeted to auto
industry in U.S.
The company has plants as under:
Location
Product
Capacity (TPA)
User Industries/applications
Sikandarabad
Structure Tubes
50,000
Truck/Bus Bodies
Sikandarabad
CR Sheets
50,000
Consumer durables, Roofing
Sikandarabad
Structurals
18,000
Transmission lines, Boiler support, Solar power
Sikandarabad
Auto Tubes
60,000
2 wheeler and 4 wheeler cold drawn welded tubes
Dadri
Forgings
12,000
Gen Engg, Flanges (for O&G and N Power), Railways
The company has also acquired land at Bhuj (53 acres) which is to be developed as a new export site. It is also looking at partners
for technical collaboration for manufacturing Defense and Railway products from this site.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Page | 3
The quantitative details of sales (volume and value) for FY14 and HY15 is as under:
Item Type
AUTO TUBES
STRUCTURE TUBING
CR SHEET
TOWER & TOWER PARTS
FORGINGS
SCRAP & OTHERS
TOTAL
Qty (In MT)
14,894.66
26,185.65
27,397.13
8,011.42
4,311.95
12,672.88
93,473.69
H1FY15
Net Sale ( in Crores)
112.05
142.50
145.73
53.96
99.96
63.98
618.17
Qty (In MT)
28,506.39
54,977.04
45,146.27
12,315.86
7,574.11
25,776.93
174,296.59
FY14
Net Sale (in Crores)
181.99
293.56
238.71
83.84
179.96
99.86
1077.92
Strong client base
The company has very strong client base like NTPC, BHEL, TATA, BMW, Audi, Munjal Showa etc. The company is a Tier 2 vendor.
The company has well diversified its product line and have strong customer base in countries like US, Singapore, South Africa, UK
etc.
Triggers

Resumption of growth after 12 quarters of flat sales and profit growth.
The company reported flat sales and profit growth from Q4FY12 to Q3FY15. This was mainly due to slowdown in the
economy (in industry, power and infra segments). Even in economic downturn company’s sales and EBITDA were not
impacted significantly due to well diversified product basket. The Company has diversified its product basket from
traditional agricultural irrigation pipes to supportive structure for green energy precision materials for automobile
industry and structure for power & telecommunication & infrastructure to forging materials for oil & gas industry &
nuclear power.
Even In flat sales growth scenario the company managed to post improved EBITDA margin and PAT Margin from Q3FY14.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Page | 4
Last 12 quarter performance of the company (Rs. Lakh)
30000
10%
25000
8%
20000
6%
15000
4%
10000
2%
5000
0
0%
Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15
Net Sale (LHS)
EBITDA Margin (%) (RHS)
PAT Margin (%) (RHS)
The Company’s strong presence across all major international markets enabled it to hedge its risks and remain afloat
during the slowdown.

Rising dividend payout indicates better prospects for the company and the management seems willing to share
growing cash flow with minority shareholders.
The company had paid Rs.3 dividend in the 2004, 2007 and 2008 year. Despite the economic downturn in the 2008, it has
not stopped paying dividend but reduced its dividend amount. But now it has started increasing dividend amount again
(declared interim dividend of Rs.0.75 on Feb 16, 2015 for the first time in many years), which indicates improvement in
company’s financial position/outlook and stable cash flows. The management has shown willingness to share the growing
cashflows with the minority shareholders. We think the dividend amounts could grow in line with profits over the next
few years.
Dividend Amount as on ex-date (Amt per share)
Date
Amount (Rs)

18-Sep-09
0.3
23-Sep-10
0.3
22-Sep-11
0.3
13-Sep-12
0.4
23-Sep-13
0.4
18-Sep-14
0.3
18-Feb-15
0.75
Three phases of CAPEX to boost volumes, topline and margin
The Company plans to invest about Rs.200 crores in the next three years towards setting up a new forging facility and
enhancing capacity of its structural division. The work on two Greenfield plants would start next year and both plants will
commence production in 1-2 years time. This will grow the topline and margins for the company.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Page | 5
Phase I: Recently the Company undertook the expansion of its manufacturing facility for producing ERW and CDW tubes
(from 30000 tpa to 60000 tpa) to meet the increased demand of auto industry globally. This has gone on stream in Jan
2015. A sum of Rs.98 cr was spent on this capex which was part funded by term loans of Rs.55 cr and Rs.16 cr infused by
promoters by way of warrant conversion @ Rs.2+68 per share..
Phase II: The Company has plans to expand the manufacturing facilities of Structure Steel by adding new products and
increase in volumes. The construction work will commence from January 2015. As per plans the construction will be
completed by December 2015 and the project will achieve the COD in April 2016. The capex for this is expected to be
Rs.50 cr. In Feb 2015 promoters converted 10 lac warrants into shares @ Rs.2+58 per share.
Phase III: The Company also has plan to expand and modernize the manufacturing facilities of Forging (from 12000 TPA to
36000 TPA). The construction work will commence from January 2016 on completion of financial closure of the project.
As per plans the construction will be completed by December 2016 and the project will achieve the COD w.e.f. April 2017.
This will entail a total capex of Rs.150 cr (to be funded by term loans of Rs.92 cr and balance by internal accruals and
promoters).
Post-expansion, forging division and structural division is expected to double its contribution to the topline. This
expansion will contribute significantly to bottom line of the Company and result in higher EPS from FY17 onwards.

Company is focusing mainly on four sectors in future.
The company has identified four focus sectors going forward including Railways, Auto, Energy and Defense for improving
the margin profile.
Railways:
This sector needs an investment of Rs. 600000 Cr in next few years being the “Life Line of India”. GLST’s forging vertical is
already approved with CLW (Chittaranjan Loco Works) for rotor & armature shafts. The company is in the process of
applying for approvals from other units of Railways. The company will go further for gears & crank shaft which are being
imported right now. Structure vertical has started supplying parts of LHB coaches to RCF (Rail Coach Factory)
Kapoorthala – Punjab.
Auto:
Auto tube division is already supplying parts to four wheelers & two wheelers such as Hero, Honda, Munjal Showa,
Endurance, Tata, Mahindra in domestic region and BMW, Audi, Mercedes in overseas. Recent capacity addition will give
boost to increase its market share globally. Auto forging, likely to be commissioned by April 2017 will synergize
company’s capacity & capability.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Page | 6
Energy:
Renewable energy such as solar is having great scope. 100 GW target by 2020 by government has opened flood gates for
industry. GLST structure division provides structure solution for solar water pump, Solar parks, Roof Top Solar projects &
On Grid & Off Grid power projects. With a capex of Rs.50 Cr, capacity increase will put GLST in a formidable position.
Defence:
USD 100 Billion market for next 5 years is set to open for Indian Industry with a offset clause of 30% from Indian
manufacturers. The company is planning to supply its structure tubing to heavy vehicle factories, forging for their engine
parts & steel over bridge structure to BRO (Border Road Organization) from its structure division.

It withstood bad times successfully and is now prepared for better times.
The company did not see any significant impact on its topline and bottomline due to economic downturn in developed
economies and domestic economy due to well diversified product basket and better management skills. The Company
has diversified its product basket from traditional agricultural irrigation pipes to supportive structure for green energy
precision materials for automobile industry and structure for power & telecommunication & infrastructure to forging
materials for oil & gas industry & nuclear power. The Company’s strong presence across all major international markets
enables it to hedge its risks and remain afloat during a crisis.
The company is conscious of balancing its domestic and international business so that any slowdown in the international
market is well compensated by penetrating the high potential domestic market.Further, company’s customer list is very
exhaustive and wide spread among more than 70 Countries which helps the company in mitigating the risk of slow down
in a particular geography or season.
10 Years Net sales and PAT margin performance
120000
100000
95324
80000
60000
40000
48186
22671
25675
31435
47750
56082
97543
3.0%
67905
2.0%
33156
1.0%
20000
0
0.0%
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
Net Sales (Rs Lakh) (LHS)
RETAIL RESEARCH
4.0%
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
PAT Margin (%) (RHS)
Page | 7

The company has strong financial metrics.
The company has strong financial metrics like Debt to Equity, Improving ROE and a good interest coverage ratio despite
being present in a commodity type of business. The company has debt to equity ratio of 1.82x, which is manageable and
long term debt to equity of the company is very low.
Leverage Ratios
Debt to Equity Ratio: (x)
Debt to Equity Ratio (Long term loan) (x)
Debt to Equity Ratio (Short term loan) (x)
Interest Coverage ratio (x)
FY11
1.9
0.2
1.8
2.9
FY12
2.3
0.4
1.9
2.5
FY13
2.2
0.4
1.8
1.9
FY14
1.8
0.3
1.5
1.8
The company has posted improved margin in past few quarters, which will have positive impact on the ROE of the
company. Similarly the focus on high margin segment will lead to improve ROE going ahead. The company has reported
ROE in the range of 12% to 19% in the past years.
Outlook
The company is in expansion mode which will lead to increase in topline and bottomline in coming years. The company is in good
shape to take the advantage of increasing spending from sectors like Auto, Railways and Defense. We believe 3 phase expansion
plan will have significant impact on the company's performance over the next 2-3 years.
At the current market price Rs.75.85, the company is trading P/E multiple at 4.9xFY16E EPS and 3.8xFY17E EPS. We value the
company at 4.5x and 5.5x its FY17 EPS to arrive at the sequential target prices of Rs93/- and Rs114/-. We feel investors could buy
the stock at the CMP and add on dips to Rs.60-66 band (~3xFY17E EPS) for the above target prices in 2-4 quarters.
Quick Estimates:
Particulars
Net Sales
Change in %
Operating Profit
OPM (%)
Adjusted PAT
APATM (%)
EPS (Rs)
RETAIL RESEARCH
Rs Lakh
FY13
95324.4
40.4%
7426.2
7.8%
2194.2
2.3%
10.4
FY14
97542.7
2.3%
7098.4
7.3%
1771.4
1.8%
8.4
FY15E
111000.0
13.8%
8700.0
7.8%
2900.0
2.6%
13.2
FY16E
125000.0
12.6%
10120.0
8.1%
3500.0
2.8%
15.9
FY17E
147000.0
17.6%
12490.0
8.5%
4560.0
3.1%
20.7
Page | 8
Financials
Profit and loss A/C (Consolidated)
PARTICULARS
Rs Lakh
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
61100.9
74256.7
104961.0
107792.0
5019.0
6351.9
9637.0
10250.0
56081.9
67904.8
95324.4
97542.7
Income
Revenue from operations (Gross)
Less: Excise Duty
Revenue from operations (Net)
Other Income
1219.8
1443.6
2412.0
2662.6
Total Income
57301.7
69348.4
97736.4
100205.2
17%
21.0%
40.9%
2.5%
44164.5
53988.3
72568.0
76593.2
59.4
32.0
2955.8
128.6
Changes in Inventories of Finished Goods, Stock-in-Process and Stock-in-Trade
-198.7
-1299.0
-1381.6
-1296.4
Employee Benefit Expenses
1805.8
2329.9
2959.1
3434.6
Other Expenses
7388.5
8986.3
13208.9
14246.8
53219.6
64037.5
90310.2
93106.8
Growth %
Expenses
Cost of raw materials consumed
Purchase of Stock-in-Trade
Total Expenditure
% of total Income
92.9%
92.3%
92.4%
92.9%
Profit before exceptional item & tax (I - II)
4082.2
5310.9
7426.2
7098.5
407.3
521.4
705.5
756.1
PBIT
3674.8
4789.5
6720.6
6342.3
Finance Cost
1266.8
1921.3
3440.9
3538.2
PBT
2408.1
2868.2
3279.8
2804.2
Current Tax
698.6
632.7
743.2
770.2
Deferred Tax
59.4
164.8
357.8
260.3
1650.0
2070.7
2178.7
1773.7
Depreciation & Amortization Expenses
Tax Expenses
PAT
Prior Period Items
Profit after exceptional gains
EPS (Rs)
RETAIL RESEARCH
174.9
59.5
-15.5
2.3
1475.1
2011.2
2194.2
1771.4
7.0
9.6
10.5
8.4
Page | 9
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
PARTICULARS
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Shareholder's Fund
Share Capital
Reserves and Surplus
Money received against Share Warrant
Total
Non-Current Liabilities
Long-term borrowings
Deferred tax liabilities (Net)
Long term provisions
Total
Current Liabilities
Short-term borrowings
Trade payables
Other current liabilities
Short-term provisions
Total
ASSETS
Non-current Assets
Fixed Assets
Tangible assets
Capital work-in-progress
Long term loans and advances
Investments
Total
Current Assets
Investments
Inventories
Trade Receivables
Cash and cash equivalents
Short-term loans and advances
Total
Total
Rs Lakh
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
374.4
7491.0
374.4
9407.0
7865.5
9781.4
374.4
11505.3
0.0
11879.8
398.4
14016.8
189.9
14605.2
1258.5
663.3
29.8
1951.5
4184.1
828.1
38.9
5051.1
4335.7
1185.9
60.5
5582.0
3892.2
1446.1
98.1
5436.4
13840.8
468.1
1846.6
763.9
16919.4
26736.4
18568.4
2024.7
1593.9
958.6
23145.5
37978.0
21908.2
4133.6
2599.4
830.8
29472.0
46933.8
22645.3
6308.9
2724.1
840.1
32518.4
52559.9
6326.6
50.8
347.5
7990.2
1679.6
874.3
6724.9
10544.1
11659.0
22.7
696.6
214.6
12592.9
12433.2
1236.8
773.7
214.6
14658.3
5.2
6702.8
9516.4
887.0
2900.2
20011.5
26736.4
0.0
10245.2
13157.6
569.0
3462.1
27433.9
37978.0
11550.4
18317.7
654.4
3818.4
34340.9
46933.8
13739.7
18794.5
787.8
4579.7
37901.7
52559.9
Financial Ratios
Profitability Ratios
Profit before exceptional item & tax
PBT Margin (%)
RETAIL RESEARCH
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
7.1%
4.2%
7.6%
4.1%
7.6%
3.4%
7.1%
2.8%
Page | 10
PAT Margin (After extraordinary Items)
2.6%
2.9%
2.3%
1.8%
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio:
Quick Ratio:
1.2
0.8
1.2
0.7
1.2
0.8
1.2
0.7
Leverage Ratios
Debt to Equity Ratio: D/E
Debt to Equity Ratio Long term loan
Debt to Equity Ratio Short term loan
Capital Employed
Interest Coverage ratio:
1.9
0.2
1.8
3.4
2.9
2.3
0.4
1.9
3.9
2.5
2.2
0.4
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.8
0.3
1.6
3.6
1.8
5.9
61.9
119.8
3.1
8.4
43.6
0.80%
108.6
5.2
70.7
33.5
10.9
6.6
55.1
21.02%
136.7
5.2
70.1
23.1
15.8
8.3
44.2
0.19%
130.2
5.2
70.3
15.5
23.6
7.1
51.4
9.95%
145.4
Activity Ratio/ Turnover Ratio
Debtor turnover (x)
Avg. Collection Period (Days)
Creditors turnover (x)
Avg. credit period (Days)
Inventory Turnover (x)
Avg. Inventory Period (Days)
Capital work in progress % of gross block
Cash Conversion cycle
1 Year daily closing price chart
1-530655.G OOD LUC K ST.BSE - 24/02/15
Trend7
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
D
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
J14
20
F
RETAIL RESEARCH
18
M
20
A
21
M
21
J
18
J
16
31
A
S
15
29
O
N
19
D
17
J15
15
30
F
D aily
Page | 11
Analyst: Deepak Kolhe; Email ID: [email protected]
RETAIL RESEARCH Tel: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Corporate Office
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022)
2496 5066 Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: [email protected]
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This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or
may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, PCG) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
Disclosure by Research Analyst: Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities
Ltd. or its Associate does not have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research
Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock - No
Disclosure by Research Entity: HDFC Securities Ltd. may have received any compensation/benefits from the subject company, may have managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the
past 12 months. Further, Associates of the Company may have financial interest from the subject company in the normal course of Business. The subject company may have been our client during twelve months
preceding the date of distribution of the Research report. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. Research entity has not been engaged in market making
activity for the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
RETAIL RESEARCH
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