The Changing Seasons Kenn Kaufman HE WINTER OF 1988-1989IN NorthAmericacouldhavebe- gun with a line borrowedfrom a Western movie. Before the season had a chanceto get underway,it seemed, a mysteriousstrangerstalked to the middle of the continent, faced the north, and barked out, "All right-nobodymove!"And for the mostpart, it worked. There were a few exceptions, but most of the northern birds did not move, and the non-invasion of all the invasive northern species added up to the biggeststory of the have such different impressions,is it really a contradiction?Not necessar- ily. It may be just the kind of pattern we're looking for. When one regionreportsthat a particular bird was unusually common, it could mean one of three things: 1. It might be just a false impression. 2. It might mean that this species, for some reason, is in high numbers throughoutits range.If this is the case, presumably,some other regionswill comment as well. 3. It might reflecta temporary shift in the population.Birdsof many sorts do movearoundin response to changing conditions.This is especiallytrue in winter, when the wild food supply and the overallweatherpatternsmay vary wildly from year to year. If food is abundant in one area, attracting large numbersof birds, we could expect numbers of birds to be reduced somewhere else. This is no contradic- tion; this is a pattern. season. Can we paint a clear picture of this non-flight year? And can we identify the mysteriousstrangerwho stopped the flight?Yes and no. The Regional Reportsdo give us a pretty thorough idea of where the birds were and, especially,where they were not. But no reasoncan be singledout for the lack of an invasion, because there were probably many reasons,at least one for every speciesthat failed to move south. The one common theme is that the lack of a southward invasion-- while it might be bad news for birders-seems to reflect good news (at least in the short term) for the birds themselves. What makes a detectable pattern? A few times in recent years, firsttime writers in "The ChangingSeasons" have complained that the Regional Reports revealed no patterns: one region would note that a given bird was unusually common, while anotherregionwould report the same bird as scarce.Seeingthis as a contradiction, the writer would conclude that there was no pattern. But when two Regional Editors Volume 43, Number 2 A winterenigma:this CommonRedpoll(shownconsorting withAmericanGoldfinches) photographed February11, 1989 at GlenRose,providedonlythethirdacceptable record for Texas.One or twootherindividualswerenotedexceptionally far southbutfor the mostpart this and other "winterfinches"were remarkablylacMngin areas that they usuallyinvade.Photograph/Greg Lasley. 271 Three easy patterns:Red-breasted Nuthatches stay in the North; Golden-crownedKingletsblanket the East; Northern Shrikes invade the as scarce •n the Atlantic Provinces, New England, Quebec, Ontario, and West however. Examples culled from this winter's reports are three widespreadpatterns, confirmedby many regions,that are easyto describe(althoughperhapsnot easyto explain). around the western Great Lakes. Numbers picked up toward the west, Northerns were south of usuallimits in Missouri,and in Texas one was asfar south asthe Guadalupe Mountains. New Mexico had its largest flight in over a decade, Arizona recorded its largest numbers ever, Variations on th•s theme could be re- peatedfor most parts of the continent. there are someareaswith heavyb•rding coverage,and more areaswithout. To reallyunderstandany patternof bird distribution, it helps to have an idea of birder distribution, or at least an appreciationof the fact that some areaswill be under reported. northernCaliforniahad high num- From coast to coast, Red-breasted Nuthatches were scarcealmost every- bers, and several reached southern The main event: in a massive non- California. where We might ask: did this southern push of Northern Shrikes represent invasion,the "winter finches" moved late or, mostly, never south of Canada. This was noted in so many regionsthat it was clearlyno illusion.Evidentlythe birds had little reason to move South. In Quebec, they remained common in areas that are normally vacated in w•nter; in New England, they were spilloverfrom a hightotalpopulation, or was it just an exceptionalmovement by smallnumbersof birds?But we'll get no clear answers.The Spokane area of easternWashingtonhad As Bill Boylestatedfor the HudsonDelaware Region, "The winter finch storyis easyto summarize:therewere virtually none." Blair Nikula wrote that "for many of us in southernNew England, the term 'winter finch' evokesonlythe vaguestof memories." From the Midwest, Bruce Peterjohn reportedthat "it was the poorestyear numerous in the interior but scarce a high count, but coastalsectionsof in more temperate areas near the the Pacific Northwest coast. One area that Red-breasted Nuthatches did invade was southern bers,and otherareashad no com- Alaska, where an all-time high was counted at Anchorage,about as far north asthe species getsat any season. birders and Northern Shrikes are both in a decade for winter finches." Vet- toothinlyspreadfor usto expectone eran GeorgeHall, who startedediting the Appalachianreport beforemost of us startedbirding, put it in a longer perspective:"Probablyonly thoseb•rders whose memory goesback to the had low num- ment. In the interior of the Northwest, to monitor the other. The continental pattern seems clear enough, with low numbers in the south balancedby high numbersin the north. Incidentally,somewestern editors mentioned the absence of these nuthatches in connection with Our detectionof patterns:how tight is the grid? 1940s could recall a winter season so deficient in Evening Grosbeaks or It seems obvious that we could de- the lack of a downslopemovement tect avian trends and movements with from the mountains. greataccuracy if we hada networkof The continent- w•de nature of this non-flightsuggests anotherinterpretation.It suggests that the Red-breasted Nuthatches that are sometimes common in the western birders stationed at one-mile intervals acrossthe continent,a grid systemof observers.It Seemsequally obvious that no such network exists. Birders other northern finches." All acrossthe continent, south of the Canadian border, there were no dissentingopinions. Of course,there were some purely local exceptions. The Middle PacificCoastRegion had very few Evening Grosbeaks,except lowlands may come from the far north, not from the nearby moun- are spreadmore patchilythan birds: tains. tain West had high numbersof some finches in the Englemann spruce parently numerous at the northern others.This hasa major effecton our ability to detectpatterns. In the great expanseof Northwest- and southernextremesof their range ern Canada, most of the reportscome •n eastern micro-birds from small areas around Whitehorse and Fort St. John. In the vastness of most places. A few redpolls moved late in the season,as often happens, Golden-crownedKinglets were ap- North America. remained in These above- numerous in some areas, absent in for one spot that hosted an all-t•me regionalrecord number. The Moun- zone, but low numbers of most •n into Wisconsin and North Dakota average numbers in Quebec and in the Maritime Provinces, where the "woods were almost dripping" with Alaska, winter reports come from only a handful of locations.And this scarcityof observers is not limited to them in Nova Scotia. At the same the Far North. In a footnote to me t•me, this was the northern species that "made the biggestimpressionon Florida observers,"it was in higher than averagenumbersthroughoutthe Central Southern Region, and it was from Colorado,Hugh Kingerywrote, "No bird watcher (and certainly no birder) hasever setfoot in vastexpan- (the timing of this flight is one example of why the ChristmasBird Counts cannot give the full winter picture) But all these exceptionswere mentioned only as exceptions.The rule, endorsedby virtuallyall United States regions,was that the winter finches ses of Nevada. A lot of observers fail did not come south. to appreciate the immensity of the common in eastern and southern Texas all winter. Between these ex- West or the dearth of bird watchers So where were they? We know where the White-winged Crossbillswere. Throughout northern Ontario, they were "numerous." In central Quebec, they were "abundant." In the Atlantic Provinces,Ian McLarentermedthem"outstandingly abundant." Responding to a mas- tremes, and in the West, the kinglet drew few comments. East of the Mississippi,no one seemedimpressedwith the movement of Northern Shrikes;they were noted 272 here ... We have just one reporter who lives in spruce/fir, so we don't hearmuch aboutspruce/firbirds.But we have a bunch of reporterswho live in ponderosapine, so when the crossbillsshoTMup there,we hear aboutit." AmericanB•rds,Summer 1989 slve cone crop, the Whlte-wlngeds swarmed in the spruces,and many were evidently breeding.Bruce Macravish dropped me a postcard from Newfoundlandto say,"When all these cones disappearin six or 12 months from now... there is the potential for the biggestWhite-wingedCrossbillin- has many active birders If the abun- katchewan instead, for example, it might havegonevirtually undetected. Indeed, that may have been where some of the "missing" finches were this season.The winter fincheswill go wherethe food is, whether or not any vaslon in decades. Look out Florida!" birders are there to notice them. dance had centered on northern Sas- And it may be no exaggeration.At any rate, the great food supply was undoubtedly the reason for the species' abundance in eastern Canada; in appreciable numbers elsewhere. Pine Siskins(which, as David Powell commented from Michigan, "held a record non-invasion" south of the Canadian border) were also scarcein most observedareas of Alaska, Ontario, and Quebec. However, they were common (away from feeders)in the Atlantic Provinces, where wild food apparentlywasplentiful. Pine Grosbeaks were considered scarce in Alaska but common in northwesternCanada;in Quebecand Ontario, they stayedin the boreal forests. In the Mountain West, with a good spruce-conecrop, the resident populations had high visibility for those observersthat ventured up to the sprucezones to seethem. Redpolls were in averagenumbers in Alaska but very scarcein northwestern Canada. In eastern Canada, they generally stayedin the northern sectionsof the provincesat least until mid-winter, and the flight that developed late in the seasonwas not major in numbers or extent. The winter finches that seemed Following the fashion of the finches, frugivores failed to fly Almost as dramatic as the non-invasion of winter finches was the non- invasion of fruit-eating birds, particularly robins and waxwings. Areas from southern California to Texas to the Gulf Coast reported that American Robins and Cedar Waxwingsessentiallynever arrived;even in southern Ontario, the expected mid-winter influx of robins failed to materialize. Again, their failure to appear in southern areas can mostly be traced to concentrationsat good food supplies farther north. Ian McLaren called the holdback of robins in the Atlantic Provinces one of the two main eventsof the season,and laid it to the abundance of Mountain Ash berries there. (If your non-birding neighborsget a kick out of the "first robin of spring,"don't tell them about the ten thousand that wintered in St. John's,Newfoundland.*) Cedar Waxwingswere also numerousin that region. Another centerof abundancefor frugivoreswasthe area from Missouri throughthe northern partsof the Central Southern Region, where waxwings were plentiful and some large scarceeverywherewereEveningGrosbeaks. Few reachedNew England or counts of robins were made. southern there must have been good food supplies for Bohemian Waxwings, be- Ontario. In the Atlantic Provinces,New Brunswickhad good numbers but they were scarce elsewhere. They were scarcestof all the w•nter Great finches around Somewhere in the boreal wilderness causethesebirdsgenerallyfailedto reach our network of observers. was undoubtedly somewhere in the vastand mostlyunwatchedboreal for- Inching North: with anothermild winter, we saw a continuing northward expansionof Carolina Wren and other species When several mild winters follow in succession,can southern birds extend their ranges northward? Read what Ron Weir hasto sayabout Car- olina Wrens in Ontario. Five years ago, the province had five of these wrens wintering; this season, there were more than 80. New England also had record numbers, Quebec had an unprecedenteddozen wintering,good numberswere in Michigan and Wisconsin, and extralimital birds were in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Minnesota, and even Colorado. Other southernspeciesalso posted gains, albeit not so dramatically. Northern Cardinals, attempting to live up to their name, wereadvancing in Michigan, Minnesota, Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick. Redbellied Woodpeckersslippeda little in Ontario, but continued to consolidate their range in New England;adventurous individuals were well north in Nova Scotia,Quebec,Michigan, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Northern Mockingbirdnumberswereup in Ontario, and two even wintered in Newfoundland. Honorable mention also went to Mourning Doves and Black Vultureswinteringin northerlyareas. The latter two are partially migratory, frontiers do not have the do-or-the Lakes. Few were seen on the ofic Coast area, and northeastern BrilashColumbia had only half the with hunger.The sourceof this flight however;individuals at their northern the western northern Great Plains, they were scarcethroughout the Northern Pa- many of the Great Grays makesone wonder if they were alsoon the move est to the north of Minnesota. and its abundance there was undoubt- edly the reasonwhy it wasnot present ter incursions has rarely been so graphically drawn, because the Boreals were apparently starving to death, and the transient nature of A disturbinglate-winter flight of dying owls commitment of essentiallyresident birds. A Carolina Wren wintering in Canada is a true pioneer. Essentialreadingis David Powell's usual numbers. Of course,when we talk about these account of the owl invasion Western Great Lakes Region. That Finches and Lesser Black-backed birds beingabsent"everywhere,"we area saw a record flight of Boreal Gulls are up; anis and Common mean "everywhere there was good Owls,and a near-recordflightof Great Ground-Doves birdingcoverage." Look at the exam- Gray Owls, mostly in the latter part to the ple of the White-winged Crossbills. of the winter. But birders derived little Their abundance in the Atlantic Prov- pleasurefrom this invasion. The connectionbetweenfood supplyand win- inceswasrecordedbecausethat region Volume 43, Number 2 Other on-goingtrends:House are down As the introduced easternpopulation of House Finches continues to spread,eachseasonbringsnew reports 273 from the periphery This winter counts have to span the continent... Prince Edward Island had its second or go even farther. This winter, for example,waterfowlnumbersin Florida were unimpressive, while high numbers wintered in Quebec, probably respondingto the overall mild- record,the specieswas reportedto be "spreadinglike wildfire" around the Western Great Lakes, and it proved its ability to survivea North Dakota winter. The Iowa population was said to be "increasingquite rapidly," and in the Central Southern Region, Arkansaswas"receivingthe brunt of the onslaught."At their farthest extension, House Finches are now turning up in easternNebraska, Kansas,and Oklahoma. Given the timing, it seems almost certain to me that these birds must be coming from the east, not from the long-established populations ness of the season. The number of migrant ducks reachingHawaii this season was down, while ducks in Alaska (where the early seasonwas alsomild) winteredin increasednumbers. Could there be connections here? Ross' Geese are increasing,or at least being detected with increasing frequency,at the easternlimits of their range just east of the Great Plains. Greater White-fronted Geese are being found in higher numbers right just to the west. Lesser Black-backed Gulls in the East have entered a new phase: they are sonumerousthat many birdersdo not bother to mention them, so the total of actual reports is no longer a good indicator of their numbers.In the Hudson-DelawareRegion,for ex- across the Middlewestern Prairie Re- gion to the Hudson-Delawareand New England. Many of theseWhitefronteds,especiallytowardthe eastern end of this continuum,arebeingidentitled as belongingto the Greenland subspecies, but Blair Nikula questions ample, there were "more than two dozen reported and many others not reported." Some tip-of-the-icebergre- how reliable ports included 14 at one landfill in Florida, birds at 21 locations in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, a few in every state of the Middlewestern Prairie Region, 13 birds in Ontario, This seasonsaw a notable flight of Harlequin Ducks southto New England, New York, New Jersey,and the southern Great Lakes, and a stray and at least five birds in Texas. Provinces,however,numbersof Harlequins were so low as to causeconcern. Barrow's Goldeneyeswandered far afield, with definite or probable recordsin Delaware, Iowa, New Mexico, and even Hawaii. As noted by H. T. Armistead, the exoticwater plant Hydrilla on the Potomac is supportingrecord numbers of some ducks, and large counts are still possiblein the ChesapeakeBay complex, while nearby at Back Bay most duck numbersare declining.In the Hudson-Delaware Region, census Declines and rangecontractionsare always harder to detect than expansions,but this seasonJohn Ogden and Bill Smith noted that Common Ground-Dovesseemto be fading out in parts of Florida where they were once numerous. Similar sentiments have been expressed recently elsewhere in the Southeast, and even locally in the Southwest.Clearly, the speciesneeds close monitoring. Dechneswerealsosuggested for Smoothbilled Anis in Florida and for Groovebilled Anis in Louisiana and Texas. Even thoughtheseareonly peripheral outliers of widespreadspecies,their populations here are worth preserving. Shuffling the ducks:a slight redistribution of waterfowl There has been valid concern re- cently about populationsof somewaterfowl,but monitoringtheir numbers in winter can be complicatedby the fact that their wintering areas shift from year to year. To be reliable, 274 these racial determina- tions really are. His cautionary note should be heeded. even reached Florida. In the Atlantic results show that overall numbers of waterfowl are more or less steady-but a breakdownby speciesshowsthat Canada Geese (adapted to civilization) are sharplyup, while many duck speciesare down. These examples illustratethe dangersof makingblanket statementsabout the waterfowl. They must be analyzedsite by site, species by species. The interior of the continent hosted a diversityof gullsthat shouldhave been elsewhere Everywinter bringsnotablegull re- ports.But this season,like the autumn that preceded it, was clearly above averagefor rare gull recordsinland. From the Middlewestern Prairie Re- gion, Bruce Peterjohn wrote "Gulls generatedthe most excitement"; Joe Grzybowski, in the Southern Great Plains,wrote"Thank goodness for the gulls";Greg Lasleyand Chuck Sexton were enthusiasticabout the diversity of gulls in north-central Texas. No obviousexplanationfor thisladd bonanza comesto mind, sincethe species involvedwere suchan eclecticgroup. The Mew Gulls in Texas should have been on the Pacific Coast, the Great Black-backed Gull in Nebraska should have been on the Atlanuc Coast, the Ivory Gull in Wisconsin should have been in the Arctic, the Sabine's Gull in Ohio should have been somewhere in the southern oceans,and the Slaty-backedGull on the Mississippi River should have been in Asia. Perhaps most significant was the scatteringof numbers of Frankhn's Gulls in the interior. These prmnenesting gulls generally winter on the westcoastof SouthAmerica, but this seasonbirds were reported into the winter in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska,South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Oregon (as well as California, where a handful often winter). The numbersinvolvedwere not large,but the wide distribution was remarkable. Many of the birdsin the deepinterior were reported to be in full breechng plumage,surprisingin midwinter. Weather's effectson wintering birdlife were not universallynoted The early winter was mild' in most parts of the continent, and in some areas the whole season continued mild. However, record-breakingcold hit Alaska in mid-January. This weather systemgraduallyspreadeast and south to affect many regionsof North America by sometimein February, with conditions moderating againafterwards. This weatherpattern is easyto trace, but for the most part its effects on birdswere not obvious.Some regions felt that the warm early part of the seasoninduced marginal speciesto linger, but not all sharedthis view Somehalf-hardysongbirds lingeredin American Birds, Summer 1989 the Hudson-DelawareRegion, for example, but next door in New England there were remarkably few lingering shorebirds despite the mild conditions. The only birds that seemedto be widely affected,as mentioned earlier, were some of the waterfowl that wintered north of normal limits. And when the cold weather did ar- was,this is probablya speciesthat has been overlookedin the past. Supertlciallyit lookslike somethingbetween a Redhead and a Canvasback;up to now, only a few astute observers might have picked it out. But in the wake of the Californiabird, everyone will be lookingfor more,and I predict that the Common Pochard will be rive, it seemedto bring about only found again. local movements, or none at all in someareas.In Alaska, where the conditions were most severe, there was some bird mortality. Another region The probable extinction of another American bird species where the harsh weather had notable effects on birds was the Northern Pa- cificCoast.There, coincidingwith the freeze, several shorebirdsmoved out, while kittiwakes arrived from the north. A number of montane birds, such as Red-breasted Sapsuckers, Steller's Jays, and Varied Thrushes, moved into the lowlands. Birding in Fashion: reports of Yellow-billed Loons have spread; will Common Pochard be next? As Ted Eubanks pointed out in this column last year (American Birds 42:402), reports of a speciescan increasealong with its "popularity"-i.e., birders'awarenessof its statusor its field marks.I suspectthat thispoint ispartlyillustratedby therecentsurge of Yellow-billed Loon reports in the interior. To be sure,thereare far more Some of the world's toughestendangered-species problemsare in the United States... in Hawaii. Strong conservation effortsare helpingsome of the endangeredbirdsthere;but for Twenty years ago, who wouM have dared to report a Yellow-billed Loon in Oklahoma? Probably no one, but with better some of the ultra-rare understanding of the species'fieldmarks, native forest birds, there is little that can be done outsideof monitoringtheir numbers. Monitorstheremay haveseenthe last of the 'O'o'a'a, that black-and-yellow phantom of the Alaka'i Wilderness. Bob Pyle relatesthe sadstory.A loss for Hawaii is obviouslya lossfor all of us. Read this or else My aim in writing "The Changing Seasons"has been to trace the megapatterns, the avian events that were spreadover severalregions.As a re- artificial bodies of water in the interior of the West than there once were, but sult, I have said much about common the reports of Yellow-billedsstarted rolling in long after these reservoirs were available. The key factor seems to be that goodinformationon identifying winter loons has become widely accessibleonly very recently. In regionsof the interior whereonce Pine Siskins, and nothing about mouth-wateringrarities such as Bananaquits or Bramblings. But those birds are printed in boldfacetype in birders would have made the "con- servative"assumptionthat any loon must be a Common, such birds are now beingstudiedcritically.The possibilityof rare visitorsis beingconsidered. With two Yellow-billed Loons in the interior of British Columbia and one in Colorado this season,the appearanceof Oklahoma's first was exciting,but perhapsnot totally unexpected.The speciesmight eventually turn up in most of our statesand provinces. This winter a Common Pochard was found in southern California, and many felt that it was a genuinewild stray, not an escapee.Whichever it Volume 43, Number 2 birds such as American Robins and the Regional Reports, and you can find them yourself. You owe it to yourself to at least flip through the Regionals,checkingout the boldfaced birds and readingthe boxedessays. A non-boxed essaythat's worth a look is Dave Lambeth's discussion of winter waterbirds on the Northern Great Plains. First he describes the distribution of unfrozen water in his region, and then he details the birds that were found on that water during this season. It's far more informative than just listing the bird records out of context. Speakingof context, here'sanother topic to think about. It's true that this winter was exceptionally poor for southward invaders, but many of these winter irruptives have seemed it has been detected in such inland states as Minnesota, Colorado, and Arizona, so a patternof raredispersal to the interior has been established. This Yellow-billed Loon in first-winterplumage was photographed near Tulsa, Oklahoma. on December20, 1988. Photograph/SteveMetz. oddly scarcefor a number of years now. At the same time, quite a few southernspecieshavebeen spreading northward. Could these phenomena, seemingly very different, have the same cause?Your required reading assignmentis Blair Nikula's introduction to the New England Region report, wherein he examinesthis possible connection.Remember the mysterious strangerwe talked about, the onewho stoppedthe flight of northern birds?Maybe his name was "Green- houseEffect" or "Global Warming." The seasons are changing,and this is a goodtime for all of us to pay attention, to monitor the changesin our birdlife. And finally, if your winter was on the dull side,you might find comfort in the account from the Atlantic Prov- inces.That Region had it all: swarms of finchesand fruit-eaters,lots of lingerers,a northward surgeof southern birds,and a healthyhandful of strays from Europe. Ian McLaren writes about the season with obvious relish and zest.You can read it just for fun, and contemplate the possibilitythat next time your Region might be the lucky one. --.950 Third Ave., New York, NY 10022. 275
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