This issue brought to you by
2018 Senate Overview:
Waiting for the New Normal
By Nathan L. Gonzales
April 7, 2017
Volume 1, No. 7
2018 Senate Ratings
Toss-Up
Donnelly (D-Ind.)
Manchin (D-W.Va.)
Heitkamp (D-N.D.)
McCaskill (D-Mo.)
Tilt Democratic
Tilt Republican
Baldwin (D-Wis.)
Nelson (D-Fla.)
Tester (D-Mont.)
Lean Democratic
Lean Republican
Brown (D-Ohio)
Heller (R-Nev.)
Casey (D-Pa.)
Likely Democratic
Likely Republican
Kaine (D-Va.)
Flake (R-Ariz.)
Solid Democratic
Solid Republican
Cantwell (D-Wash.)
Barrasso (R-Wyo.)
Cardin (D-Md.)
Corker (R-Tenn.)
Carper (D-Del.)
Cruz (R-Texas)
Feinstein (D-Calif.)
Fischer (R-Neb.)
Gillibrand (D- N.Y.)
Hatch (R-Utah)
Heinrich (D-N.M.)
Strange (R-Ala.)
Hirono (D-Hawaii)
Wicker (R-Miss.)
King (I- Maine)
Klobuchar (D-Minn.)
Menendez (D-N.J.)
GOP
Murphy (D-Conn.)
DEM
Sanders (I-Vt.)
115th Congress
52
48
Stabenow (D-Mich.)
Not up this cycle
43
23
Warren (D-Mass.)
Currently Solid
7
15
Whitehouse (D-R.I.)
Competitive
2
10
Donald Trump has been president for less than
three months and yet it feels like three years,
as each day seems to bring at least one urgent
story (if not two or three) to the forefront. And
even though the 2018 midterm elections are 19
months away, they are not immune from the
constant chaos.
Vulnerable senators are having to judge how their constituencies are
responding to Trump’s performance when casting votes, while potential
challengers are trying to figure out if the political climate in 2018 will
Takeovers
in Italics
moved
benefijumping
ting Democrats,
favor
or punish
their #party
before
into costly races.
* moved
benefi
ting Republicans
The initial
Senate
battleground continues to favor Republicans, with
Democrats defending 25 seats (including 10 states that Trump carried in
2016) and Republicans defending just 9 seats (including just one state Nevada - that Hillary Clinton won).
But 2016 proved that the map isn’t destiny. Republicans were
defending more than a handful of incumbents in tough states yet held
their losses to a minimum (just two seats). Democrats are unlikely to
take back the Senate majority next year, but Trump’s performance will
determine the climate.
Democrats are excited to see Trump sink so low so quickly. As of
Thursday, President Trump’s job approval was 40 percent, compared
to 53 percent disapproval, according to the Real Clear Politics average.
That’s close to the lowest point of his administration thus far.
Trump’s performance could improve if he can deliver on some
campaign promises. According to one GOP strategist, Republicans need
to finish most of Trump’s initial priorities including confirming Neil
Gorsuch for the Supreme Court, dealing with Obamacare, tax reform,
and an infrastructure bill in order to keep Trump supporters engaged
and give them a reason to vote next year.
Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to harness the grassroots energy
that has erupted since Trump took office and hope Republicans trip over
DEM
themselves with a government GOP
shutdown
or other intra-party fights.
Congress
46
They’re also114th
working
to shore up54
their vulnerable
incumbents in states
where Trump
will
be
more
popular
than
his
national
numbers.
Not up this cycle
30
36
The current
lack
of
retirements
is
also
important,
considering
Currently Safe
8
defeating incumbents is often more costly and difficult. At least one
Competitive
10
2
senator has retired each cycle going back over 100 years, but there hasn’t
been an announcement yet.
For now, the best thing to do is watch candidate recruitment and
don’t get too tied to one specific projection about the mood of the
electorate until later in the cycle. InsideElections.com
Reason for Democratic Optimism, But Health Care Won’t be Enough
By Nathan L. Gonzales
From the women’s marches to town hall protests, Democrats
were feeling emboldened about the next elections even
before Republicans fumbled their attempt to repeal the
Affordable Care Act. Democratic optimism grew (as well as
media comparisons to a certain previous midterm election
involving health care) as polling revealed that the GOP
alternative was less popular than the health care status quo.
But to the delight of Democratic strategists, many Republicans were
already on the record supporting the bill by voting for it in committee
and by their comments to the media. A March 16-21 Quinnipiac survey
showed 56 percent of voters disapproved of the “Republican health care
plan to replace Obamacare, known as the American Health Care Act,”
while just 17 percent approved. Part of the problem was that just 41
percent of Republicans supported it, the poll found.
Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee unveiled digital and
television ads about the Republicans’ efforts on health care. The DCCC
targeted 14 GOP incumbents.
Heading for a midterm with one party in control of the White House
and Congress, and burdened by an unpopular health care plan, reporters
immediately looked back to 2010 for guidance on what will happen in
2018. But it’s not a clean comparison.
A 2010 ad, “Nancy Pelosi’s Rubber Stamp,” from the National
Republican Congressional Committee against a Democratic incumbent is
a prime example.
“For years, Congressman John Spratt was listening to South Carolina.
Since Nancy Pelosi took over, he’s become a rubber stamp,” the narrator
intoned ominously. “The cap-and-trade energy tax? Spratt voted yes. The
Wall Street bailout? Spratt, yes. The wasteful stimulus bill? You betcha.
And Obama’s health care bill? Spratt, yes, yes, every time.”
The ad demonstrates the Democrats’ liabilities beyond health care at
the time.
Obamacare came to symbolize a Republican pre-existing condition
to hate government overreach, but congressional Democrats were also
saddled with the so-called cap-and-trade bill, auto bailout, Wall Street
bailout, and the stimulus bill.
“It was the cumulative effect of an ideology run amok,”
said one veteran GOP consultant looking back at 2010.
Democrats were also clinging to districts that were moving
away from their party. Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama
all lost Spratt’s 5th District in the three presidential elections
before the congressman lost re-election that year. And Obama’s 7-point
loss in 2008 was the closest of those contests. Democrats have already
captured much of the low-hanging fruit in the House these days.
In 2010, Spratt lost re-election, 55-45 percent, to Republican Mick
Mulvaney, who just left the House to become President Trumps’ director
of the Office of Management & Budget.
The health care law was a catalyst for a historic Republican gain of
63 House seats in 2010, but according to the National House Exit Poll
that cycle, 63 percent of voters said the economy was the most important
issue facing the country, compared to the second-place issue, health care,
which registered at 18 percent.
Of course, Democrats are hoping that health care will be just one part
of a Trump agenda that voters won’t like and will consequently take
out their frustration on GOP candidates, and that their candidates will
benefit from a combination of factors that benefitted Republicans seven
years ago.
Even if the GOP effort or the topic of health care isn’t at the top
of voters’ minds in 19 months, Democrats are trying to capitalize on
the issue now by raising money and recruiting candidates who are
compelled to come off the sidelines after watching Republicans deal with
health care.
Republicans will have to wrestle with whether to make another
attempt at changing health care policy. The risk is a backlash from
moderate voters if the GOP alternative is unacceptable or worse than the
status quo, but also risk turning off Republican voters who have lost faith
in their GOP elected officials.
Past election results can be helpful in identifying trends, but it’s
important to remember the full context of each election and that no two
cycles are the same. @InsideElections
facebook.com/InsideElections
InsideElections.com
2
April 7, 2017
Nathan L. Gonzales
Editor & Publisher
[email protected]
@nathanlgonzales
Stuart Rothenberg
Senior Editor
[email protected]
@stupolitics
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales
provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns
for Senate, House, governor and president.
It does not endorse candidates.
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Production Artist
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Nonpartisan Analysis & Research
ALABAMA - Luther Strange (R) appointed 2017. Special Election.
This seat is the latest addition to the regular class of senate seats up
this cycle. GOP Sen. Jeff Sessions was confirmed as President Donald
Trump’s attorney general and GOP Gov. Robert Bentley appointed state
Attorney General Luther Strange to the seat. The appointment was
controversial considering Strange’s office was investigating the governor
for allegedly improper use of state funds regarding an extramarital
relationship. Strange must be elected in 2018 to serve out the remainder
of the term. Any vulnerability would be in a primary, but he’ll enjoy the
full support of the NRSC (similar to his new colleagues) and that could
deter potentially serious challengers. Solid R.
ARIZONA - Jeff Flake (R) elected 2012 (49%). This will be a test
to see if President Trump and White House adviser Steve Bannon are
interested in getting involved in primaries. Compared to fellow Grand
Canyon State Sen. John McCain, whom grassroots Republicans regard
as insufficiently conservative, Flake has generally toed the conservative
line, except on immigration. But because of his private clashes with
Trump during the 2016 race, including his refusal to endorse his party’s
presidential nominee and later opposing the President’s travel ban, Flake
could draw a serious primary challenge from a pro-Trump Republican.
State Sen. Kelli Ward, who lost to McCain 52-39 percent in the
2016 primary, is running again. But all eyes are on state Treasurer Jeff
DeWit, Trump’s Arizona campaign chairman. If DeWit runs, Flake
could have a real fight on his hands, although he isn’t likely to be alone,
considering the Club for Growth has been a Flake ally in the past. At the
end of January, GOP Rep. Paul Gosar’s name popped up as a potential
challenger, but that lasted just a few days before he announced for reelection.
Democrats are interested in adding to their short list of takeover
opportunities, but Flake looks like a formidable incumbent in a state
Trump carried by 4 points in spite of his baggage. But Democrats will
try to field a credible alternative in case Flake loses in the late GOP
primary to a fringe Republican. There is still time for this race to become
a headache for Flake and the GOP. Likely R.
CALIFORNIA - Dianne Feinstein (D) elected 1992 Special (54%),
1994 (47%), 2000 (56%), 2006 (59%), 2012 (63%). Feinstein, who will turn
85 years old in 2018, is not in danger of losing re-election, but she will
remain on the retirement watch list, probably up until the filing deadline
early next year. An open seat would attract a multitude of Democrats
(considering it’s practically a lifetime appointment), dampened only by
the fact that the governorship is open next year and Gov. Jerry Brown is
term limited. Democrats in Washington believe Feinstein’s position as
Ranking Member on the Judiciary Committee will entice her to run for
re-election. In January, she had a pacemaker installed but was back on
the Hill within a couple of days. Solid D.
CONNECTICUT - Chris Murphy (D) elected 2012 (55%). Murphy’s
initial race against Republican/former wrestling executive/Small
Business Administrator Linda McMahon got a little too close for comfort
at times, but he shouldn’t have any problems winning re-election.
Murphy, who turns 45 next year, is one of the chamber’s youngest
members and can likely have this seat as long as he wants it. He gained
some national attention in 2016 for his 15-hour filibuster on gun control.
Solid D.
InsideElections.com
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
Senate Overview: Alabama-Florida
Luther Strange
DELAWARE - Tom Carper (D) elected 2000 (56%), 2006 (70%), 2012
(66%). Carper is a Democrat in a Democratic state that Clinton won by
11 points against Trump. Republicans won’t seriously challenge here.
Solid D.
FLORIDA - Bill Nelson (D) elected 2000 (51%), 2006 (60%), 2012
(55%). Nelson, 74, looks determined to run for a fourth term, but
he could be in the race of his life if GOP Gov. Rick Scott decides to
challenge him. The term-limited governor could invest at least $20
million of his own money into the race and some Republicans believe
that could encourage Nelson to consider voluntary retirement. At this
point, most GOP strategists expect Scott to run, although they are clear
that the governor will make his own decision and announce in his own
time.
The party can afford to wait for Scott if he decides to run, but the
governor must understand that he can’t drag out the process and then
not run. Any other Republican would need time to build the campaign
and name identification he has already built. Other potential GOP
challengers include Rep. Ron DeSantis (who was running a credible
campaign last cycle before he dropped out when Sen. Marco Rubio
dropped back in) and freshman Rep. Francis Rooney (a former U.S.
Ambassador to the Holy See who has considerable personal money). As
one GOP source observed, “Rooney didn’t come to Washington to serve
in the House.”
Nelson starts with the advantage, even over the polarizing Scott. But
if the governor runs, Democrats will have to spend plenty of time and
money defending the seat. Tilt D.
Cherry Communications for Florida Chamber of Commerce, March 6-14
(LVs)--General Election ballot: Nelson over Scott 48%-42%.
Mason Dixon, Feb. 24-28 (RVs)--General Election ballot: Nelson over
Scott 46%-41%. IDs: Nelson 42% favorable/25% unfavorable, Scott 41%
favorable/38% unfavorable.
Univ. of North Florida, Feb. 13-26 (RVs)--General Election ballot: Nelson
Continued on page 4
April 7, 2017
3
Senate Overview: Hawaii-Michigan
over Scott 44-38%. Nelson job rating: 42% approve/28% disapprove. Scott job
rating: 46% approve/40% disapprove.
HAWAII - Mazie Hirono (D) elected 2012 (63%). This might be
the least exciting “race” of the cycle. No primary or general election
fireworks are expected. As long as Hirono runs, she wins. Solid D.
INDIANA - Joe Donnelly (D) elected 2012 (50%). Donnelly was
expected to lose the 2012 general election to popular incumbent Richard
Lugar. But Lugar was defeated in the GOP primary by Richard Mourdock,
who ended up being a seriously flawed nominee. That gave Donnelly an
opening, even though Obama received just 44 percent of the vote. Last
year, Hillary Clinton drew just under 38 percent against Trump.
Republicans expect to have a much stronger Senate nominee this time
around than they did six years ago. GOP Reps. Luke Messer and Todd
Rokita are all-but-certain to run. Rep. Susan Brooks announced she is not
running.
Some conservative groups are not enamored with their choices
and are looking for an alternative. Freshman Rep. Jim Banks, who was
endorsed by the Club for Growth in his initial 2016 race, told Roll Call’s
Simone Pathe that he is not running for the Senate in 2018. Subsequently,
Kip Tom, one of the Republicans Banks defeated in the 3rd District GOP
primary in 2016, popped up as a potential Senate candidate. Messer
recently released a list of influential GOP donors from across the state
and across the Republican spectrum, plus a $1.6 million war chest as
of the end of March. Tom would need to spend considerable personal
money to become relevant.
Donnelly is regarded as an affable senator with less baggage than
former Democratic senator Evan Bayh (who lost last year’s contest), and
he may end up with some key moderate credentials. He also announced
that he will support Neil Gorsuch for the Supreme Court. But Donnelly
is still a Democrat running for re-election in a state that took a decided
turn toward Trump. Toss-up.
MAINE - Angus King (Independent) elected 2012 (53%). Some
Republicans are feeling bullish on Maine after Clinton defeated Trump
by just 3 points, 48-45 percent, in 2016. King, who caucuses with
Democrats, is running for a second term and Republicans will need
a strong challenger. GOP Gov. Paul LePage said back in May that he
would run if he didn’t get a job in the Trump administration, but he’s a
polarizing figure who failed to draw even 50 percent of the vote in his
races for governor. Republicans might be better off with 2nd District Rep.
Bruce Poliquin, who represents half the state, was just re-elected 55-45
percent in a competitive race, and has personal money. State Sen. Eric
Brakey, 28, is running on the GOP side, but he’s not likely to be able to
get the job done.
There are a couple other potential wrinkles in the race. If Republican
Susan Collins, the state’s other senator, decides to run for governor,
aspiring candidates might see her seat as a better opportunity. In
November, Maine voters passed the Ranked Choice Voting Initiative,
also known as instant-runoff voting. Voters rank candidates on the
ballot; if no candidate tops 50 percent in the first round, the last-place
candidate would be eliminated and his or her votes would move to the
candidate voters selected as their second choice. The process moves
along until a candidate gets more than 50 percent. The initiative will
4
April 7, 2017
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
Continued from page 3
Luke Messer
likely be challenged in court but, in general, most Republicans believe
this will hurt their chances in the short term. The bottom line is that this
is unlikely to become a prime GOP takeover opportunity. Solid D.
MARYLAND - Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%).
Unless GOP Gov. Larry Hogan decides to challenge Cardin instead of
seeking re-election (which he’s not going to do), Republicans aren’t
going to win this seat. In 2016, Clinton defeated Trump 60-34 percent and
Democrat Chris Van Hollen defeated Republican Kathy Szeliga 61-36
percent for the state’s other Senate seat. Solid D.
MASSACHUSETTS - Elizabeth Warren (D) elected 2012 (54%).
Warren was first elected in a competitive race over GOP Sen. Scott Brown
and passed on a race for president in 2016, which she might have been
able to win. She’s one of the most popular Democrats among Democratic
voters, which is good news for a senator running for re-election in a state
Clinton won 60-33 percent. Former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling
considered challenging Warren (he would have lost), but he declined and
is backing businessman V.A. Shiva Ayyadurai. The GOP field could also
include wealthy businessman Jack Kingston (a major GOP donor who
made the rounds in Washington last month), Pepperell businessman Rick
Green, as well as state Rep. Geoff Diehl (who was a leader in Trump’s
Massachusetts campaign) and 2013 special election nominee Gabriel
Gomez, according to The Boston Globe. Any of them will likely lose to
Warren. Solid D.
MICHIGAN - Debbie Stabenow (D) elected 2000 (49%), 2006 (57%),
2012 (59%). Stabenow was likely going to be on the outskirts of any talk
about competitive Senate races in 2018 until Trump defeated Clinton, 47.547.3 percent, in the Wolverine State. Republicans are still going to need a
good candidate, and there doesn’t appear to be a consensus initial target,
but last November showed Republicans can be competitive in statewide
federal races again. This race will be a test of how transferable Trump’s
working-class appeal is to other candidates. So far, not a lot of interest on
the Republican side. Solid D.
Continued on page 5
Nonpartisan Analysis & Research
Senate Overview: Minnesota-Nevada
MINNESOTA - Amy Klobuchar (DFL) elected 2006 (58%), 2012
(65%). Hillary Clinton’s loss means Klobuchar still has an opportunity to
be the first woman elected president of the United States, but winning reelection would be a good first step. Klobuchar is popular and starts the
race with a significant advantage. Republicans haven’t won Minnesota
at the presidential level in 44 years, but Trump came close in 2016, losing
46.4-44.9 percent. GOP strategists have some dream candidates but not
much else at this point. Solid D.
MISSISSIPPI - Roger Wicker (R) appointed 2007, elected 2008
special (55%), 2012 (57%). As chairman of the NRSC last cycle, Wicker
helped keep the party’s losses to a minimum and held the Senate
majority for the GOP. Of course, that’s not good enough for state Sen.
Chris McDaniel, who is publicly contemplating a primary challenge to
the senator. McDaniel nearly unseated GOP Sen. Thad Cochran in 2014,
when he finished ahead of the incumbent in the initial primary but lost
in the runoff by 2 points. Wicker would be a more formidable foe and
will be ready, so McDaniel risks a second loss in three cycles. And Wicker
allies are ready with more opposition research against McDaniel than
came to light last time he ran. No matter what happens in the primary,
the seat is Solid R, considering Trump defeated Clinton 58-40 percent in
the presidential race last year.
MISSOURI - Claire McCaskill (D) elected 2006 (50%), 2012 (55%).
McCaskill has been a fortunate politician. She was initially elected
in a great Democratic year (over GOP Sen. Jim Talent) and re-elected
against Rep. Todd Akin in what has become a famous race focused on
the congressman’s biological views. This race isn’t likely going to be as
easy, and she even declared herself the underdog in the race to National
Journal’s Kimberly Railey.
GOP Rep. Ann Wagner is seriously considering challenging the
senator and, at this point, it would be a surprise to everyone if she didn’t
run. But after Trump destroyed Clinton, 57-38 percent, in what was once
a competitive state, there are plenty of Republicans who will take a look
at the race. Fellow Rep. Vicky Hartzler is also mentioned as a potential
candidate, or there could be space for a political outsider to run against
the Washington Establishment. Wealthy attorney Dave Wasinger made
the rounds in Washington but hasn’t been as active recently. McCaskill is
at serious risk of losing re-election but that didn’t stop her from opposing
Gorsuch for the Supreme Court. Toss-up.
MONTANA - Jon Tester (D) elected 2006 (49%), 2012 (49%). As
one of five Democratic senators running for re-election in a state Trump
and Mitt Romney carried, Tester was going to be a top takeover target.
And Trump’s 56-36 percent margin just added to the focus on the race.
There was a flurry of headlines about GOP chances taking a hit when
Trump nominated At-Large Rep. Ryan Zinke to be secretary of the
Interior and how that took Republicans’ best challenger off the table. But
Zinke was not the perfect candidate, and Republicans might actually
be better off with someone else. State Attorney General Tim Fox is in
the decision-making process and state Auditor Matt Rosendale appears
to be interested as well. He finished third in the 2014 GOP primary for
Congress with 29 percent when Zinke finished first with 33 percent
and went on to win the general election. Tester has done a good job of
cultivating a regular-man image, but the former DSCC chairman also has
InsideElections.com
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
Continued from page 4
Jon Tester
some liberal instincts, such as opposing Gorsuch for the Supreme Court.
Tilt D.
NEBRASKA - Deb Fischer (R) elected 2012 (58%). Fischer was
a surprise primary winner in 2012 and is up for re-election. Her
Cornhusker State colleague Ben Sasse has been a consistent critic of
Trump, but Fischer has kept a lower profile. Her vulnerability would be
in a primary, but there doesn’t appear to be a challenger on the horizon.
Solid R.
NEVADA - Dean Heller (R) appointed 2011, elected 2012 (46%).
Despite a disappointing Election Night for Democrats in 2016, the Silver
State was a bright spot. Clinton won Nevada, 48-46 percent, and former
state attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Rep. Joe Heck,
47-45 percent, to keep Harry Reid’s seat in Democratic hands.
Heller was first elected in 2012 by over-performing Mitt Romney,
but he also ran against a flawed congresswoman and reached just 46
percent. That makes him a top Democratic target on a national map with
few Democratic takeover options. Veteran Nevada analyst Jon Ralston,
editor of the new non-profit news project The Nevada Independent,
is skeptical Democrats will unearth a top-tier challenger to Heller. But
earlier this week, Rep. Dina Titus said she is considering a run and Clark
County District Attorney Steve Wolfson told Michelle Rindels (also of
The Nevada Independent) that he had been approached to run. Titus
also said former Diamond Resorts CEO Steve Cloobeck was considering
a challenge as well.
Republicans are hoping Democrats are distracted by defending seats
elsewhere and unable to divert resources from their own incumbents
in order to take on Heller. But even without an announced candidate,
Democrats are already plotting their case against the senator, including
a vote to revoke Title IX funding. Democrats believe abortion rights and
and Planned Parenthood were potent messages against Heck in 2016.
GOP strategists believe incumbency and Heller’s ability to overperform
in Washoe County (Reno) will be critical. Lean R.
Continued on page 6
April 7, 2017
5
Senate Overview: New Jersey-Ohio
NEW JERSEY - Bob Menendez (D) appointed 2006, elected 2006
(53%), 2012 (58%). It’s never good to be on trial for bribery and up for
re-election at the same time, but that doesn’t mean Menendez is going
to lose next year. The Supreme Court declined to take up the senator’s
federal corruption case, and the trial is still scheduled to begin on Sept.
6. By declining to hear the case, the high court let stand rulings that went
against Menendez, and leaves in place evidence prosecutors have used
to allege that the senator wielded his power to improperly aid a major
donor.
Even with Menendez under indictment, we initially rated the race
as Solid for Democrats. Clinton crushed Trump in the Garden State,
56-41 percent, and Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in the state
since Clifford Case’s re-election in 1972. The last time they came close
was in 2002, when Democratic Sen. Bob Torricelli had ethical problems.
But when the senator was falling behind Republican Doug Forrester
in the polls, Torricelli dropped out of the race, and Democrats replaced
him on the ballot with former Sen. Frank Lautenberg a little more than
a month before Election Day. Of course, Menendez and his team assert
the senator’s innocence, but if the trial and charges spiral downward for
the senator, it’s not hard to see Democrats exploring other options. This
year’s gubernatorial and legislative elections have already helped keep
the heat off of Menendez. Republicans in New Jersey are more focused
on this year’s races rather than recruiting for 2018.
Even if or when the GOP gets a challenger to Menendez, Republicans
have at least a dozen better takeover opportunities and New Jersey is an
expensive fight since it includes advertising in the New York City and
Philadelphia media markets. At a minimum, Republicans hope the trial
and state are distractions for the Democrats. Solid D.
NEW MEXICO - Martin Heinrich (D) elected 2012 (51%). Heinrich
won a competitive race against Republican Heather Wilson by 6 points
but shouldn’t have as much trouble next year. Clinton defeated Trump
48-40 percent and Republicans have so many other, better takeover
opportunities that it’s hard to see the party having money to seriously
challenge here. Republicans probably need to convince outgoing 2-term
Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry (who Republicans recruited to run in
2014) to run to make this a race. Solid D.
NEW YORK - Kirsten Gillibrand (D) appointed 2009, elected 2010
(63%), 2012 (72%). Gillibrand was originally appointed by Democratic
Gov. David Paterson to replace Hillary Clinton, as she became President
Barack Obama’s secretary of state. Gillibrand, 50, hasn’t had any trouble
in her two elections and next year shouldn’t be any different as she gears
up for a potential presidential run in the future. “I am entirely focused on
running in 2018. I feel honored and privileged that I get to serve this state
as their senator, and I feel like as their senator, I can fight on all of these
issues,” Gillibrand told Spectrum News NY1 recently. “So I would very
much like to be re-elected and serve my term.” That’s not a “no” about
a potential national campaign. And she has voted against virtually all of
Trump’s cabinet selections, giving her more credibility with progressive
activists. Solid D.
NORTH DAKOTA - Heidi Heitkamp (D) elected 2012 (50%).
Heitkamp ran arguably the best campaign in the country and narrowly
won her first Senate race, outperforming Obama by about 10 points (he
6
April 7, 2017
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
Continued from page 5
Kirsten Gillibrand
lost to Mitt Romney 58-39 percent). In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton
by 36 points (63-27 percent). Heitkamp is a good politician, and her
public flirtation with a Trump cabinet position will give her some great
ammunition for the campaign trail to deflect criticism. But she is in an
extremely vulnerable position.
Rep. Kevin Cramer, who represents the entire state in an At-Large
District, has the right of first refusal on the GOP side, and appears to be
in no hurry to make a decision. He was first elected in 2012 to replace
GOP Rep. Rick Berg, who lost to Heitkamp for the open seat. Cramer
defeated state Rep. Pam Gulleson, 55-42 percent, in what was supposed
to be a competitive race, and hasn’t had a serious race since. GOP
strategists believe he’d be a credible contender, and hopefully without
some of Berg’s baggage.
Heitkamp won’t be easy to defeat. She has a larger-than-life
personality in a small state (by population, not geography) and tries to
cultivate a bipartisan image. She was one of three Democratic senators to
announce support for Gorsuch for the Supreme Court. Toss-up.
OHIO - Sherrod Brown (D) elected 2006 (56%), 2012 (51%). For all
the talk about Ohio’s swing-state status and hosting competitive Senate
races, recent contests haven’t been all that close. GOP Sen. Rob Portman’s
58-37 percent re-election victory in 2016 was just the latest example. In
2012, Brown faced off against state Treasurer Josh Mandel in one of the
most expensive contests in the country, but still prevailed by 6 points.
Mandel is running again. He’s known as a hard worker and a good
fundraiser, and GOP strategists expect him to put together a credible
campaign. And Trump’s sizable 52-44 percent victory in 2016 is a stark
contrast to Obama’s 51-48 percent victory the last time Brown won reelection. Trump’s margin was only a point less in the Buckeye State than
it was in Texas.
Mandel may not have the field to himself. GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi is
interested in running and he had nearly $5.2 million in his campaign
account on Nov. 28. But multiple Republican sources doubt he will
Continued on page 7
Nonpartisan Analysis & Research
Senate Overview: Pennsylvania-Virginia
Continued from page 6
ultimately run. Unless the congressman posts a big fundraising quarter
(reports are due April 15), then it seems less likely he will run. Mandel
isn’t the perfect candidate but it would help Republicans’ general
election prospects to not have him bludgeoned in a primary. Brown
is regarded as a tough campaigner with a populist brand that Clinton
lacked. Lean D.
PENNSYLVANIA - Bob Casey, Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%).
With Trump’s 49-48 percent win over Clinton and Sen. Pat Toomey’s reelection in 2016, Republicans are feeling emboldened about their chances
of defeating Casey next year. Now they just need a candidate. There was
a moment when Casey’s 2012 race looked to be in some doubt, but he
ended up winning comfortably. This cycle, GOP Rep. Patrick Meehan
received most of the initial attention but announced he would seek reelection instead. Two of his House colleagues, Reps. Mike Kelly and Lou
Barletta are interested.
At the beginning of the year, Kelly appeared to be focused on a
potential gubernatorial run, but the Senate may be a viable option now as
well. He represents the northwest corner of the state (including Erie), and
would be regarded as a credible candidate. Barletta represents Hazleton
and areas around Harrisburg in the east-central part of the state. Wealthy
businessman Jeff Bartos of Philadelphia is also interested in running
and former Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley, CEO of the United Way of Greater
Philadelphia and Southern New Jersey, is mentioned as well. Casey’s
re-election prospects probably depend on the national environment next
year, which is still a wild card. Lean D.
RHODE ISLAND - Sheldon Whitehouse (D) elected 2006 (54%),
2012 (65%). Whitehouse looks safe for a third term as long as he runs for
re-election. There is no GOP buzz about this race. Solid D.
TENNESSEE - Bob Corker (R) elected 2006 (51%), 2012 (65%). Trump
won The Volunteer State with 61 percent in 2016, so any vulnerability for
Corker would be in the Republican primary. Corker, who is chairman of
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was considered a top candidate
to become Trump’s first secretary of state, but obviously didn’t get that
post. He now appears to be running for re-election, although he could opt
to run for governor. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Tennessee
since Al Gore was re-elected in 1990. Solid R.
TEXAS - Ted Cruz (R) elected 2012 (56%). The senator quickly
shifted gears from the presidential race to re-election. His biggest
vulnerability is probably in a primary because of Republicans who
may not like his brand of confrontational (and to some, self-serving)
conservatism, but that’s not saying much. Establishment Republicans
would love for wealthy Rep. Mike McCaul to run, but it’s unclear why
he would give up his chairmanship of the House Homeland Security
Committee for an uncertain bid. And it’s hard to believe there is
enough space to the right or left of Cruz among Texas Republicans for a
challenge to find oxygen.
Cruz won’t get a free ride in the general election. Self term-limited
Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke (who represents the 16th District in
far western Texas) recently announced his challenge. On one hand,
the 44-year-old congressman who used to play in a punk band and
embarked on a bipartisan road trip with Texas GOP Rep. Will Hurd
could present himself as a fresh face. But O’Rourke told Texas Tribune’s
InsideElections.com
Abby Livingston that he doesn’t plan to hire campaign consultants and
has said previously that he won’t accept PAC money. That sounds like a
refreshing approach, but it is terrible political strategy. Cruz raised and
spent about $15 million in 2012, so unless O’Rourke has a plan to match
or exceed that, his long-shot bid will be over before it began.
If O’Rourke wins, it will be in spite of his strategy not because of
it. It will be because President Trump implodes, the Republican Party
implodes, or Cruz implodes, or all of the above. Or a credible third-party
candidate draws enough votes from the senator to lower the Democrats’
threshold of victory below 40 percent. For now, the race is still Solid R.
UTAH - Orrin Hatch (R) elected 1976 (54%), 1982 (58%), 1988
(67%), 1994 (69%), 2000 (66%), 2006 (63%), 2012 (65%). After GOP Sen.
Bob Bennett was ousted by Mike Lee in 2010, some Republicans were
concerned that grassroots Republican activists would come for Hatch
next, but the long-time politician successfully dispatched a credible
primary challenger by 32 points. During that 2012 campaign, Hatch said
his current term would be his last, but the senator appears to be more
than open to running for re-election. And there is a disconnect between
Republicans in Washington and those in Utah on Hatch’s strength.
Republicans inside the Beltway see a hard-working senator who
already survived an insurgency, while GOP sources in the Beehive State
see potential Hatch fatigue and a senator with significant vulnerabilities.
According to a March 15-21 poll by Dan Jones & Associates for the Salt
Lake Tribune, 78 percent of registered voters said Hatch should definitely
not or probably not run for re-election.
Hatch’s former campaign manager previously admitted to the Salt
Lake Tribune that the senator has some work to do. Hatch could benefit
from a new primary system that allows candidates to make a primary
ballot through the convention or by gathering signatures. That could
lead to a more crowded and fractured field against the incumbent. The
senator also dodged a potential bullet since former Gov. Jon Huntsman
Jr. looks poised to become the next ambassador to Russia. Former
presidential candidate Evan McMullin looks interested in running
against the senator or for the House. And Hatch clouded the situation
even more recently by suggesting to National Journal that he might step
aside if Mitt Romney runs. This seat isn’t at risk of going Democratic but
could provide some excitement this cycle. Solid R.
VERMONT - Bernie Sanders (Independent) elected 2006 (65%),
2012 (71%). Continuing a revolution probably involves winning reelection for the former presidential candidate. The independent senator
from Vermont probably couldn’t have imagined his political star
ascending as high as it did in 2016, particularly at 75 years old. Sanders
has said he would run as a Democrat in future elections, but he was
non-committal in an interview with Chuck Todd on Meet the Press
Daily early this year. Even though Republicans elected a governor in
The Green Mountain State in 2016, there is virtually no chance of the
GOP winning this race, unless Gov. Phil Scott decides to run. Solid D
(because Sanders will caucus with Democrats if he runs again as an
Independent).
VIRGINIA - Tim Kaine (D) elected 2012 (53%). Instead of being
Hillary Clinton’s vice president, Kaine is relegated to running for reelection. The good news for the senator is that their ticket defeated the
Continued on page 8
April 7, 2017
7
Senate Overview: Washington-Wyoming
Trump-Pence ticket, 50-44 percent, continuing Democrats’ string of
presidential victories to three. But Republicans aren’t going to give him
a pass.
Potential GOP challengers include former presidential candidate/
Hewlett-Packard CEO/2010 California Senate nominee Carly Fiorina,
Reps. Barbara Comstock, Rob Wittman and Dave Brat, and former
state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who has been running Senate
Conservatives Fund. Fiorina clearly wants to get elected to something,
somewhere and has the financial resources to be a serious contender.
Comstock posted an impressive 53-47 percent re-election win in
November, even though Trump lost her district by 10 points.
Virginia has been moving away from Republicans and Kaine is a
good candidate, but it’s still a race to watch as the cycle and Republican
field develops. But most of the attention in the commonwealth is focused
on this year’s race for governor and potential GOP candidates are
interested to see whether the party will choose a Senate nominee with a
primary or at a convention, because that could determine what type of
Republican can survive among a crowded field. Likely D.
WASHINGTON - Maria Cantwell (D) elected 2000 (49%), 2006
(57%), 2012 (60%). Despite all of the Republican electoral success across
the country over the last six years, the GOP hasn’t been able to crack the
West Coast. Cantwell is running for a fourth term and shouldn’t have
any trouble winning re-election as long as GOP Rep. Dave Reichert
stays in his House seat (which is likely). Clinton won 52-36 percent over
Trump in Washington in 2016 and Republicans haven’t won a Senate
race in the state since 1994. Solid D.
WEST VIRGINIA - Joe Manchin (D) elected 2010 special (53%),
2012 (61%). Manchin nearly gave Democrats a heart attack by publicly
dancing with Trump about a potential cabinet post, but now he looks
likely to seek re-election. Without him in the race, Republicans could
probably have claimed this seat with relative ease. Even if he had no
intention of accepting a job with Trump, it’s great politics to appear
open to the new president, considering Trump destroyed Clinton, 69-27
percent, in the Mountain State. Even though Manchin’s brand is strong,
he won’t get a free pass with those presidential numbers.
In spite of Manchin’s keen candidate skills, Republicans will likely
have a credible challenger. The top two names mentioned most often
are state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Rep. Evan Jenkins. Rep.
David McKinley has been interested but doesn’t look likely at this point,
while GOP strategists hope wealthy perennial candidate John Raese
doesn’t run again. Morrisey is a statewide elected official, but he’s also
from New Jersey and has residual negatives from a tough and expensive
re-election race last year that he won 52-42 percent, underperforming
Trump by 17 points. Jenkins will have to deal with the baggage of being
tied to Washington, but he could also benefit from being able to tangibly
show how he has supported the President.
There’s no question Manchin will run ahead of normal Democratic
performance, but national Democrats are in a big hole in West Virginia.
Republicans will have to demonstrate that the senator has changed since
he was first elected and gotten more liberal than his initial reputation
(particularly on guns). Manchin announced he would support Gorsuch
for the Supreme Court. Toss-up.
8
April 7, 2017
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
Continued from page 7
Tammy Baldwin
WISCONSIN - Tammy Baldwin (D) elected 2012 (51%). Trump won
the Badger State, 47-46 percent, and GOP Sen. Ron Johnson came from
behind to win re-election adding to Republicans’ optimism about their
surge in the state. Baldwin, who is the first openly gay senator in U.S.
history, defeated aging former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson in 2012
after a bruising Republican primary. GOP strategists are hopeful to get
someone younger and more current this cycle.
Rep. Sean Duffy declined to run but the field of potential challengers
includes state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, state Sen. Leah
Vukmir, state Rep. Dale Kooyenga, wealthy real estate developer Eric
Hovde (who finished second in the 2012 primary), businessman/Marine
Corps veteran Kevin Nicholson, and Nicole Schneider, who could
have personal money after marrying into one of the largest trucking
companies in the country. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel,
GOP mega-donor Richard Uihlein contributed $2 million to a proNicholson super PAC. The Schneider family stands to make $230 million
when the trucking company goes public this year, but that process could
complicate a Senate bid.
As Johnson is to the right of the state, Baldwin is to the left, and
Republicans will continue to criticize her for how her office handled
the Tomah VA Medical Center crisis. But she has also worked hard to
cultivate her image surrounding her “Buy America” agenda. We did a
more complete analysis in the March 13 issue. Tilt D.
WYOMING - John Barrasso (R) appointed 2007, elected 2008 special
(73%), 2012 (76%). Barrasso, who will turn 66 in 2018, shouldn’t have
any problems winning another term, as long as he seeks re-election.
Any trouble would have to be in a primary, and there isn’t any buzz
about a challenger, particularly now that Liz Cheney found her way
to Washington by winning the state’s At-Large House seat in 2016.
Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Wyoming since Gale McGee
was re-elected in 1970, eight years before Dick Cheney was elected to
Congress in the seat now held by his daughter. Solid R. Nonpartisan Analysis & Research
Kansas 4 Special: Not So
Solid for Republicans
Texas 16: Yes, A Safe
Democratic Seat in Texas
By Nathan L. Gonzales
By Nathan L. Gonzales
A few weeks ago, Republicans identified a special
election problem in the Atlanta suburbs and proceeded
to spend a few million dollars on television ads in
Georgia’s 6th District. But now the special election in 4th District
of Kansas is causing some headaches in the final days.
Unlike the Georgia seat where Donald Trump won by a single
percentage point, the 2016 GOP presidential nominee carried the
Kansas seat comfortably, 60-33 percent. And a February 2017 poll for the
Democratic nominee’s campaign showed him losing the April 11 special
election 56-32 percent.
But the race is getting uncomfortable enough in the final days to
inspire the National Republican Congressional Committee to spend
$67,000 on television ads and $25,000 on digital ads, according to Alexis
Levinson at Buzzfeed.
The Wichita-based seat is vacant after GOP Rep. Mike Pompeo left to
become Trump’s CIA director.
State Treasurer Ron Estes has been the frontrunner from the beginning.
He was first elected statewide in 2010, when he defeated Democratic
incumbent Dennis McKinney 59-41 percent in the GOP wave. Estes
formed an exploratory committee for Congress last cycle when Pompeo
considered challenging GOP Sen. Jerry Moran in the Republican primary.
Estes was chosen as the GOP nominee in this special election by about
65 local committeeman and women instead of a traditional primary
while local Democrats chose civil rights attorney James Thompson over
McKinney to be their nominee.
“With a decent campaign, this wouldn’t be close,” according to one GOP
source familiar with Kansas politics. “The campaign had no media strategy,
no social media strategy, no outreach strategy. There was no vision.”
“His biggest commercial was him in a swamp with gators. He is not a
tea party candidate from Alabama,” explained the frustrated Republican.
Republicans should still hold the district, but rating it as Solid is
an overstatement of GOP chances and sentiment at this stage. We’re
changing our rating to Likely Republican.
“I believe the most likely outcome is Democrats wake up Wednesday
morning asking why they didn’t dedicate 15 percent of the resources
they’re throwing at [former GOP Rep. Tom] Price’s seat here,” said
another GOP source.
National and local Democrats have hardly invested any time or
money on the race. A few weeks ago, Thompson was upset because the
state party wouldn’t spend $20,000 on a mailing for the race. Georgia
Democrat Jon Ossoff raised about $92,000 per day in the first three
months of the year for his race.
Republicans are suffering from an enthusiasm gap, and unpopular
Gov. Sam Brownback continues to be a drag on GOP candidates down
the ballot. Democrats are running even in early voting in Sedgwick
County (Wichita), but Estes should be able to make up the ground in the
more rural counties.
Thompson even coming close could give Democrats a shot in the arm
heading into Georgia a week later, where their top candidate is within
striking distance of an electoral shocker. It’s hard to remember the last time Democrats won
a statewide race in Texas, but there are pockets of
Democratic voters in the Lone Star State.
Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s run for the
Senate against Republican Ted Cruz opens up the El
Paso-based 16th District in West Texas. It’s not at risk of
a Democratic takeover considering Hillary Clinton carried it
with 68 percent in 2016 and President Barack Obama received 64
percent four years earlier.
Based on the early potential successors mentioned, the heavily
Hispanic district has a good chance of being represented by a Hispanic
Member for the first time since O’Rourke defeated Rep. Silvestre Reyes
in the 2012 Democratic primary.
El Paso County Judge Veronica Escobar and state Rep. Cesar Blanco
are the top potential candidates with Escobar the most likely to run.
Blanco told people at the SXSW Conference last month that he wouldn’t
get in the way of Escobar. Allies of Reyes are also looking for a candidate,
according to knowledgeable sources.
Blanco has also been mentioned as a potential challenger to GOP
Rep. Will Hurd in the neighboring 23rd District. But that would require
knocking off a tough incumbent and having to run a competitive race
every two years instead of winning one Democratic primary and being
set for life. The seat is Solid for Democrats. InsideElections.com
Candidate Conversation
Brad Little (R)
Candidate for Governor of Idaho
Interview Date: March 28, 2017
Date of Birth: Feb. 15, 1954;
Emmett, Idaho
Education: Univ. of Idaho
(1976)
Political Office: Lieutenant
Governor (current); State
senator
Current Outlook: As the sitting lieutenant governor with Gov. Butch
Otter’s endorsement, Little is a top contender to become Idaho’s next
governor. Any fight would be in the GOP primary, considering Hillary
Clinton failed to reach 28 percent in the 2016 presidential election.
Evaluation: Little was warm and friendly in our interview. He had
a sober view of his place in the race as the perceived Establishment
candidate while confidently talking about the strength of the economy
and quality of life in Idaho. He might need to ramp up his fundraising
effort if he faces a self-funding opponent in the primary. But Little is
putting together a top tier campaign and should be considered the early
frontrunner to succeed former Rep. Butch Otter, who is currently the
longest-serving governor in the country (he was first elected in 2006).
There hasn’t been a Democratic governor of Idaho in nearly 20 years.
April 7, 2017
9
Georgia 6 Special: Red
Alert In Suburban District
By Nathan L. Gonzales
It’s not a surprise that the special election to
replace Health & Human Services Secretary Tom
Price is competitive considering Donald Trump’s
underperformance in the Atlanta suburbs. But the
fact that Democrats have a reasonable chance to score
an upset on April 18 is still remarkable.
In search of an electoral outlet for their anger,
Democrats around the country have rallied behind
former Capitol Hill aide Jon Ossoff, 30, who has evolved from also-ran to
likely runoff candidate to potential winner without a runoff.
Trump’s election awakened the Democratic grassroots and Ossoff
raised an astounding $8.3 million in the first three months of the year -- a
staggering amount for a House candidate. Former Democratic Gov. Ted
Strickland took an entire cycle to raise $10.7 million for his Ohio Senate
race last year.
One Democratic strategist admitted that Ossoff has more money
than he knows what to do with and can’t spend it all before the initial
balloting. For example, he has enough money to conduct focus groups
(which House candidates normally don’t do) and his paid field staff of 70
is about three times larger than an average top-tier House campaign.
Republicans responded with $2.5 million in spending by
Congressional Leadership Fund and $1.67 million by the National
Republican Congressional Committee. But Ossoff is still outspending
all the Republicans and, as a candidate, his money goes further. He is
paying approximately $275 per point on television while outside groups
are paying nearly $450.
Still, the district still leans Republican. Trump’s narrow victory was the
exception rather than the rule. In order to win, Democrats must change the
composition of the electorate. And they might be doing just that.
Through Wednesday, Democrats had approximately a 28-point
advantage in early and absentee voting. Republicans had a 30-point
advantage at the same point in the 2016 general election. Drilling down,
Democrats are turning out infrequent voters, including a substantial
number of those who didn’t vote in recent elections. That’s a key
ingredient for an upset.
Early Republican turnout might be lower because GOP voters haven’t
Calendar (let’s
decided
between the 11 Republican candidates, including four (Karen
try to fit all
Handel,
Bob Gray, Dan Moody, and Judson Hill) who have plausible
below dates)
paths to finish second and move on to the June 20 runoff, if Ossoff is held
below 50 percent.
March 20 Neil Gorsuch Supreme Court confirmation hearing begins
Most public and private polls have Ossoff in the low to mid-40s and
April
2 by
Baseball
Opening
Day
leading the
field
a wide
margin.
Based on his position, the difficulty of
April
4 California’s
24th
specialturnout,
primary election
accurately
predicting
special
election
the margin of error of the
polls, and
Ossoff’s
financial
dominance,
we
are
changing our rating from
April 11 Kansas’ 4th special general election
Lean Republican
to
Toss-Up.
April 18 Georgia’s 6th special primary election
Republican
attack ads may have stalled Ossoff’s momentum, but he
May 2 South Carolina’s 5 special primary elections
is still within striking distance of a majority. An outright victory on April
May 25 Montana’s At-Large District special general election
18 would send shock waves through the political world. But it’s probably
6 California’s 24th special general election
Ossoff’s June
best chance
to win because it will difficult to endure two more
June
6 New
Jersey
months of
negative
ads.
gubernatorial primary election
June 13
10
Virginia gubernatorial primary election
June 20 Georgia’s 6th special runoff election
April 7, 2017
June 20 South Carolina’s 5th special general election
2018 House Ratings
Toss-Up (3R, 4D)
AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D)
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
GA 6 (VACANT, Price, R)#
NJ 5 (Gottheimer, D)
MN 1 (Open; Walz, DFL)*
TX 23 (Hurd, R)
MN 2 (Lewis, R)
Tilt Democratic (2D)
Tilt Republican (3R)
FL 7 (Murphy, D)
CA 49 (Issa, R)
NV 3 (Rosen, D)
FL 26 (Curbelo, R)
NY 19 (Faso, R)
Lean Democratic (3D)
Lean Republican (10R)
FL 13 (Crist, D)
CA 10 (Denham, R)
MN 7 (Peterson, DFL)
CA 25 (Knight, R)
MN 8 (Nolan, DFL)
CA 39 (Royce, R)
CO 6 (Coffman, R)
IA 1 (Blum,R)
NE 2 (Bacon, R)
NY 22 (Tenney, R)
PA 8 (Fitzpatrick, R)
PA 16 (Smucker, R)
VA 10 (Comstock, R)
Likely Democratic (6D)
Likely Republican (13R)
CA 7 (Bera, D)
AZ 2 (McSally, R)
CA 24 (Carbajal, D)
CA 21 (Valadao, R)
IL 10 (Schneider, D)
CA 48 (Rohrabacher, R)
IA 2 (Loebsack, D)
IA 3 (Young, R)
PA 17 (Cartwright, (D)
KS 3 (Yoder, R)
WI 3 (Kind, D)
KS 4 (VACANT, Pompeo, R)#
ME 2 (Poliquin, R)
MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
GOP
DEM
NJ 7 (Lance, R)
115th Congress
241
194
NY 24 (Katko, R)
Currently Solid
212
179
PA 6 (Costello, R)
Competitive
29
15
PA 7 (Meehan, R)
Needed for majority
218
# moved benefiting Democrats,
TX 7 (Culberson, R)
* moved benefiting Republicans
CALENDAR
2017
Takeovers in Italics
April 11 Kansas’ 4th Special General Election
April 18 Georgia’s 6th Special Primary Election
May 2 South Carolina’s 5 Special Primary Elections
May 25 Montana’s At-Large District Special General Election
June 6 California’s 24th Special General Election
June 6 New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary Elections
June 13 Virginia Gubernatorial Primary Elections
June 20 Georgia’s 6th Special Runoff Election
June 20 South Carolina’s 5th Special Primary Election
Nov. 7 Virginia, New Jersey Gubernatorial Elections
Nonpartisan Analysis & Research
R
T
A
M
N
N
T
T
C
F
N
L
C
C
C
C
G
I
N
N
P
P
V
L
A
C
C
I
K
M
M
N
N
P
P
T
T
F
N
L
F
M
M
M
L
C
C
I
I
P
W