Foreign banks: Trends and Impact Stijn Claessens and Neeltje van Horen* January 2013 Forthcoming in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Abstract Over the past two decades, foreign banks have become much more important in domestic financial intermediation, heightening the need to understand their behavior. We introduce a new, comprehensive database, made publicly available, on bank ownership (including the home country of foreign banks) for 5,324 banks in 137 countries over the period 1995-2009. We document large increases in foreign bank presence in many countries, but with substantial heterogeneity in terms of host and banks’ home countries, bilateral investment patterns, and bank characteristics. In terms of impact, we document that the relation between private credit and foreign bank presence importantly depends on host country and banks’ characteristics. Specifically, foreign banks only seem to have a negative impact on credit in low-income countries, in countries where they have a limited market share, where enforcing contracts is costly and where credit information is limited available, and when they come from distant home countries. This shows that accounting for heterogeneity, including bilateral ownership, is crucial to better understand the implications of foreign bank ownership. JEL Classification Codes: F21, F23, G21 Keywords: foreign banks, financial globalization, financial sector development, financial stability, financial crisis. * Claessens is with the International Monetary Fund, University of Amsterdam, and CEPR, and Van Horen is with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB). This paper was partly written while Van Horen was visiting the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. We would like to thank Thorsten Beck, David Marques-Ibanez, an anonymous referee, and participants at the DNB-JMCB conference Post-Crisis Banking for valuable comments. We are grateful to Yiyi Bai,Tugba Gurcanlar, Matias Gutierrez, Joaquin Mercado, Lindsay Mollineaux, Deimante Morkunaite, Krisztina Orban, Jeanne Verrier and Chen Yeh for their extensive help with collecting the data and providing excellent research assistance at various stages of this project. The data collection was started while the authors were at the World Bank and financial support for this project from the World Bank’s Research Support Budget and the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DECRG trade and services project) is gratefully acknowledged. The database underlying this paper is made available online at www.dnb.nl\xxxx. While extensive efforts have been undertaken to cross-check information, we do not accept responsibility for the accuracy of the final data. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the institutions with which they are or have been affiliated. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected]. 1. Introduction Although interrupted by the recent financial crisis, the past few decades have seen an unprecedented increase in globalization, especially in financial services. Not only have crossborder bank (and other capital) flows increased dramatically, but also many banks, from both advanced and developing countries, have ventured abroad and established presence in other countries. Although there are differences, few countries have been left out from this trend of increased financial integration. Given the large importance of foreign banks in many countries today, understanding the motivations of foreign banks to enter a particular host country, the way by which they do so, and the impact they have on financial sector development and financial stability has become essential. These questions have become even more prominent with the financial crisis. Although much research has been conducted, many questions remain unanswered, however, partly because of limited data availability. Having access to good data enables researchers to study trends and allow for heterogeneity of foreign banks, and is therefore paramount to increasing our understanding of the impact of foreign bank ownership. This is the main contribution of our paper: introducing a new and comprehensive database on bank ownership. Our database (available online at www.dnb.nl\xxxx) covers ownership information of 5,324 banks active in 137 countries over the period 1995-2009. For each year a bank is active during the sample period, its ownership, domestic or foreign, is determined. When foreign owned, the home country of the largest foreign shareholder is provided. Compared to other databases on bank ownership used in the literature (most notably the one constructed by Micco, Panizza and Yañez, 2007) our database is unique in a number of respects. First, it includes virtually all banks active in a particular country. Second, it includes countries of all levels of development. Third, it captures bank ownership and changes therein in a continuous fashion over an extensive period. Fourth, it includes the home country of the foreign bank. Together, this comprehensive and detailed database allows for many kinds of new research. For example, it allows, when linked to financial data such as from Bankscope, for comparisons between domestic and foreign banks of different types (e.g., small versus large, old versus young, deposit taking versus non-deposit taking). It allows one to test whether foreign banks behave differently (also compared to domestic banks) in certain countries, and to disentangle short-run from long-run determinants and implications of foreign ownership as well as to control for some factors often omitted. And, since it differentiates between foreign 2 banks from different countries, one can examine the impact of bilateral factors (like distance, trade linkages, institutional similarity, etc.) on foreign bank entry decisions and behavior. In the remainder of the paper, we use our database to describe salient facts on the trends in foreign bank ownership and to study its impact on financial development in the host country. We document a sharp increase in foreign bank ownership over the period 1995-2009 affecting a large number of countries.1 We show though that much heterogeneity exists with respect to the relative importance of foreign banks in the host country, the home country of the parent bank, the bilateral pattern of foreign bank investment, and the business models used by and performance of foreign banks. Importantly, we show that accounting for this heterogeneity is crucial when studying the impact of foreign bank ownership. When examining the link between foreign bank presence and private credit for example, we show that this depends importantly on host country and foreign bank characteristics. Specifically, foreign banks only seem to have a negative impact in low-income countries, in countries where they have a limited market share, where it is costly to enforce contracts and where credit information is only limited available, and when they come from distant home countries. The relationship between foreign bank presence and private credit is one example of the many questions studies have examined regarding the causes and consequences of foreign bank ownership. Before the crisis, the general consensus was that the benefits of foreign banks greatly outweigh the costs in many dimensions. It was generally thought that foreign banks add to domestic competition, increase access to financial services, enhance financial and economic performance of their borrowers, and bring greater financial stability (Clarke, Cull, Martinez Peria and Sanchez, 2003; Claessens, 2006; and Cull and Martinez Peria, 2012). Generally, lower costs of financial intermediation (measured by margins, spreads, overheads) and lower profitability are found to coincide with greater foreign bank presence (Claessens, Demirguc-Kunt, and Huizinga, 2001 and studies like Mian, 2003; Berger, Clarke, Cull, Klapper and Udell, 2005; Beck, Demirguc-Kunt, and Martinez Peria, 2008). Also, evidence exists of better quality financial intermediation, e.g., lower loan-loss provisioning, with more foreign entry (Martinez-Peria and Mody, 2004). This is especially so compared to stateowned banks whose performance is generally found to be poor (La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, and Shleifer, 2002; Sapienza, 2004; Cole 2009; Carvalho, 2012). Likely a number of factors are behind these effects, such as the introduction of new, more diverse products, greater use of up-to-date technologies, and know-how spillovers (e.g., as people learn new skills from 1 A number of these patterns were documented earlier in Claessens, Van Horen, Gurcanlar and Mercado (2008). 3 foreign banks, they migrate over time to domestic banks). In addition, foreign banks likely pressure governments to improve regulation and supervision, increase transparency, and more generally catalyze domestic reform (Levine, 1996). The effects of the entry of foreign banks on development and efficiency appear to depend on some conditions, though. For example, limited general development and entry barriers can hinder the effectiveness of foreign banks (Garcia-Herrero and Martinez Peria, 2007; Demirguc-Kunt, Laeven and Levine, 2004). Also, the relative size of foreign banks’ presence seems to matter. With more limited entry (relative to the total host banking system), fewer spillovers seem to arise, suggesting some threshold effect exists (Claessens and Lee, 2003). Furthermore, important interplays seem to exist between similarities of home and host countries and entry decisions (Berger, Buch, DeLong, and DeYoung, 2004; Galindo, Micco and Serra 2003; Claessens and Van Horen, 2012a) and between (cultural and institutional) distance and performance (Claessens and Van Horen, 2012b). In terms of individual bank characteristics, it seems that larger foreign banks’ operations are associated with greater effects on access to financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises, perhaps as they are more committed to the market, while smaller banks are more niche players (Clarke, Cull, Martinez Peria and Sanchez, 2005). Furthermore, the health of both the home and the local host bank operation seem to matter, with healthier banks showing better credit growth (Dages, Goldberg and Kinney, 2000; see also De Haas and Van Lelyveld, 2006). While the entry of foreign banks is generally thought to have favorable effects on credit extension, some studies find more ambiguous results. Some show that foreign banks “cherry pick” borrowers (Detragiache, Gupta and Tressel, 2008; Beck and Martinez Peria, 2010; Gormley, 2010). This can undermine overall access to financial services, since it worsens the remaining credit pool, and thereby lowers overall financial development, especially in low-income countries where information asymmetries are large. Indeed, Detragiache, Gupta, and Tressel (2008) show that the presence of foreign banks in lowincome countries is associated with less credit being extended. However, Cull and Martinez Peria (2008) show that this relationship disappears or even reverses once crisis-induced acquisition of (distressed) banks by foreigners is accounted for. Besides the impact of foreign banks on the development and efficiency of the domestic financial sector, a number of studies examine their impact on financial stability. Some papers find that global banks support their foreign affiliates during times of financial stress through internal capital markets (De Haas and Van Lelyveld, 2006 and 2010; Barba4 Navaretti, Calzolari, Levi, and Pozzolo, 2010). At the same time, however, some studies show that (funding) shocks to parent banks can be transmitted to their foreign subsidiaries and branches with (possible) negative consequences for their lending (Peek and Rosengren, 1997, 2000; Cetorelli and Goldberg, 2012). Studying the global financial crisis, papers show that foreign subsidiaries reduced lending more compared to domestic banks (Popov and Udell, 2012; De Haas and Van Lelyveld, 2011). Ongena, Peydro and Van Horen (2012), however, show for Eastern European countries that while foreign banks reduced lending more compared to locally funded domestic banks, they did not compared to domestic banks that had financed their lending from international capital markets. In addition, Claessens and Van Horen (2013) find that foreign banks reduced credit more compared to domestic banks in countries where they had a small role, but not when dominant or funded locally. Although providing very interesting and valuable insights, most studies analyze only a limited number of countries and/or a selected number of (large) banks. While this can allow for a more careful isolation of the mechanisms the authors are after, it can come at the cost of not being able to generalize the results or to address the influence of heterogeneity across foreign banks. While many have attempted to control for country factors for example, this has proven somewhat difficult. Especially bilateral factors have been hard to control for simply because data have not been available. While some papers have investigated these issues (for example, Berger, Buch, DeLong, and DeYoung, 2004), only some papers (Galindo, Micco, and Serra, 2003; Micco, Panizza and Yanez, 2007; Claessens and Van Horen, 2012a,b and 2013) were able to analyze a large sample of banks and control for various types of heterogeneity. As we highlight, exploiting the unique information in our database, much heterogeneity exists within the group of foreign banks and this heterogeneity has a non-trivial impact on, for example, the relationship between foreign bank presence and private credit development. Therefore, by introducing this new, comprehensive database covering (close to) the universe of domestic and foreign banks over a lengthy period, this paper allows research on foreign banking to be extended in important ways. The paper itself is structured as follows. Section 2 describes the database. Section 3 provides an overview of the main trends in foreign banking, and highlights the heterogeneity in foreign bank ownership. Section 4 examines the impact of foreign bank ownership on private credit in the host country. Section 5 concludes. 5 2. Data The main purpose of this paper is to present an original and newly collected database on bank ownership (available at www.dnb.nl\xxxx). The data in the database were manually collected using many sources. These include, but are not limited to, (parent) bank websites and annual reports, banking regulatory agency/Central Bank websites, reports on corporate governance, local stock exchanges, SEC's Form F-20, newspaper articles and country experts. We further cross-checked the data with other (less comprehensive databases), among others, Micco, Panizza and Yañez (2007). Given that, to the best of our knowledge, full coverage of bank ownership information is not available in other databases, our data collection effort provides a unique source of information.2 We started off by creating a list of all commercial banks, savings banks, cooperative banks, bank holdings, and holding companies that were reporting to Bankscope in 2009. We then included all banks that were active at least one year between 1995 and 2009. Therefore our database includes both banks still active in 2009 and banks that exited the market during the sample period. For each bank we provide their consolidated and/or unconsolidated index number (as used by Bankscope) to allow researchers to combine our ownership data with balance sheet and profit and loss information. Given that we link our database to Bankscope, we cover subsidiaries of foreign owned banks, but not their branches, as branches in general do not report individual balance sheet information and are therefore not included in Bankscope. Following this list we imposed a few restrictions. First, we only included host countries with more than 5 active banks reporting to Bankscope in 2009. In addition, for the advanced countries in our sample, we restricted our coverage to the 100 largest banks in each country in terms of 2008 assets, so smaller (typically regional) banks are not included in the database for these countries (this reduces especially the coverage of the banks active in the United States). Third, since including bank holding companies can potentially lead to double counting, as both the holding company and the bank itself are often included in Bankscope, we excluded the holding company if the bank itself was represented in the database. For all countries, we cover this way at least 90 percent of the banking system in terms of assets. In total, the database covers ownership information of 5,324 banks active in 137 countries, covering banks in advanced countries like the United Kingdom and the United States, 2 Bankscope does provide some information on shareholder structures of banks. However, information is lacking for a large number of banks and changes over time are in general only partially recorded. 6 emerging markets like Brazil and China, and developing countries like Cambodia and Zambia. Next, we proceeded by determining for each bank in our sample the exact moment of entry and (if applicable) of exit. If the exact year of establishment (“entry”) could not be determined, but additional information indicated that the bank was in operation prior to 1995 (e.g., the presence of financial statements), we coded 1500 as the fictive year of establishment. For 47 banks (0.9 percent of our sample) we were not able to find the exact year of establishment nor could we determine whether the bank was active prior to 1995. In these cases the year of establishment and ownership information is left blank. In terms of exit, we used in general the year the bank became inactive in Bankscope as the moment of exit. When in doubt, we cross-checked this information using additional sources and made corrections if necessary. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are common among banks, but represent a complication in data collection and coding. We carefully went through all M&As and made sure that only the merged entity or the acquiring bank remained in the sample after a takeover. For example, if two banks, bank A and bank B merged in 2000 to create a new entity, bank C, then the two individual banks A and B were each included in the dataset until 2000. Then, from 2000 on, these two banks were considered inactive and the new bank (bank C) was included in the database. Similarly, if bank A was acquired by bank B in 2000, both banks were included in the database until 2000, with bank A then becoming inactive after 2000 and bank B remaining active after 2000. Information on mergers and acquisitions was mostly obtained from Bankscope and from banks’ individual websites.3 Subsequently we identified the bank’s shareholders in each year the bank was active in the period 1995-2009. Given that it is nearly impossible to collect exact shareholder information and changes therein over time for such a large sample of banks and long period, we opted for using a dummy approach. That is, we identified a bank as foreign owned when 50 percent or more of its shares were held by foreigners, capturing this way also major changes in ownership. This cut-off is standard in the literature on foreign bank ownership. For each year the bank was active, it was then coded either foreign-owned or domestic (note that for domestic banks we do not make a distinction between privately- or state-owned banks). 3 Although the database does not provide a specific indicator for the occurrence of a merger or acquisition, were relevant often (detailed) information on the merger or acquisition is provided in accompanying notes. 7 Next, we determined for the foreign banks the home country of the largest foreign shareholder. We summed the percentages of shares held by foreigners by country of residence, with the country with the highest percentage of shares then considered the home country. The country of ownership is based on direct ownership, i.e., we do not consider indirect ownership. We did, however, take into account that in some cases the direct owner is an entity purely established for tax purposes. In such cases, we recorded the country of nationality of the ultimate owner as the home country (these cases typically involve entities registered in Luxembourg, Mauritius, and Panama). In later years, identifying home countries and tracing ownership information became more complicated with more banks raising equity through public capital markets offerings. To overcome the problem of determining the nationality of anonymous shareholders, we only considered block shareholdings when determining ownership. When determining ownership, we erred on the side of caution and reported ownership as missing when the reliability of the information was in question. The following is an example how the coding of a hypothetical bank was carried out. First, let a bank in Hungary be 40 percent domestic owned and 60 percent foreign owned. Then, let shareholder X from Austria hold all shares not held by domestic owners. This bank is coded as foreign owned with Austria as the home country. In this case the foreign shareholder is the largest shareholder. There are cases though in which the foreign shareholder is not the largest shareholder, but the bank is still foreign owned. An example can clarify this case. Let a bank in Poland be 40 percent domestic owned and 60 percent foreign owned. Then, let shareholders X and Y from Germany hold 35 percent of the shares, while a shareholder Z from Italy holds 25 percent of shares. This bank is then coded as foreign owned, with Germany as the home country because the largest portion of shares in foreign hands is held by German investors, even though German investors themselves hold fewer shares than domestic owners do. Using these data and procedures, we were able to determine the complete ownership structure, including the home country of the largest foreign shareholder, for 5,248 of the 5,324 banks in the sample (i.e., 98.6% percent) for all the years each bank was active. For 14 banks only partial ownership and for 61 banks no ownership could be determined. All in all, the data provide an almost complete picture of bank ownership around the world and changes therein over time. Using the database, we next discuss developments in foreign bank presence between 1995 and 2009, how this varies by home, host and bilateral characteristics, compare foreign and domestic bank characteristics, and analyze the relationship between foreign bank 8 presence and financial development and how this varies by host country and foreign bank characteristics. 3. Trends and heterogeneity in foreign banking Over the period 1995 to 2009, banking systems in many countries experienced important transformations. While the total number of domestic and foreign banks in our sample stayed virtually the same (3,980 in 1995 and 3,947 in 2009), these aggregate numbers mask two counteracting trends (Table 1).4 The number of domestic banks decreased by about 18 percent, due to consolidation driven by technological changes and deregulation in many advanced and developing markets as well as by some financial crises. At the same time, the number of foreign-owned banks increased by 69 percent. These differing trends mean that the relative importance of foreign banks increased substantially, from a share of 20 percent in 1995 to 34 percent in 2009. Figure 1 shows this steady increase in the number of foreign banks present, from 788 in 1995 to 1,330 in 2009, and in the foreign share. While there was a steady increase in presence, foreign bank entry did fluctuate over the period (Figure 2). It was especially high in the late nineties and early 2000s and again in 2006-2007. This reflected in part waves of reforms, including the opening up of Eastern Europe and other transition economies, and the liberalization of entry by East Asian countries. It also reflected the rapid financial globalization that took place before the crisis. Entry peaked in 2007 though, and slowed down markedly after the start of the crisis. While 2008 still saw entries at levels similar to 2005, entries in 2009 were the lowest in the period. Many banks in important home countries suffered capital losses and, due to market forces or government interventions, were forced to consolidate, limiting their interest in new foreign investments. At the same time, countries affected by the crisis became less attractive as investment opportunities. Although entries dominated over the whole sample period, foreign banks did exit markets, with 2001 standing out with 47 banks exiting, mostly due to various crises affecting emerging markets. While the recent crisis negatively affected entry in 2009, it hardly impacted exits which remained at earlier levels. Parent banks, apparently, did not (yet) feel the need to close or sell their foreign affiliates, probably because many affiliates were located 4 We exclude from all further analyses 8 offshore host countries (Antigua and Barbuda, Bahrain, Barbados, Cyprus, Mauritius, Panama, Seychelles and Singapore) that are included in the database. This reduces the sample by 225 banks. 9 in countries at the time only marginally affected by the crisis and/or with substantial longterm growth opportunities (with fixed costs involved in setting up a foreign affiliate large, exits are in general not driven by short-run fluctuations but by longer-run opportunities). While foreign bank presence increased in general, the trends and current penetrations differ greatly across host countries (see Appendix Table 1 and 2 for individual country data). Figure 3 shows for 129 countries in our sample the share of foreign banks in terms of numbers for 1995 and 2009. Two observations stand out. First, foreign bank penetration increased substantially over the period, but with important differences across countries. This is also clear from Table 1 which provides information on foreign bank presence by income group (OECD, other high-income countries, emerging markets, and developing countries) and region.5 In terms of increases, differences between income groups are substantial. In OECD and other high-income countries, the number of foreign banks grew by 38 and 2.5 percent respectively between 1995 and 2009, but in emerging markets by 74 percent and in developing countries by 113 percent. Especially in emerging markets and developing countries foreign banks thus became more important, with market shares of 36 and 45 percent in 2009, respectively, up from 18 and 24 percent in 1995. In these countries, foreign banks now play important roles in financial intermediation, with average loan, deposit and profit shares between 42 and 50 percent. Perhaps not surprisingly, in many OECD countries most financial intermediation remains done by domestic banks, with average foreign bank loan, deposit and profit shares of about 20 percent. Within the emerging market and developing country group though, substantial regional differences exist. Growth rates over this period were by far the highest in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (225 percent) and at 47 percent foreign bank penetration in this region is now the second largest. Increases were also large in South Asia (120 percent), but as the base was very low, penetration in this region remains relatively limited, only 14 percent. Latin America saw very strong growth early in the period, but after 1999, in the aftermath of the Argentine and Brazilian crises, many foreign banks exited the region and new entries 5 The OECD group only includes the core OECD countries and other high-income includes all countries classified as high-income by the World Bank in 2000 but not belonging to OECD. This implies that current OECD countries like Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Korea are included in the emerging market group. Slovenia, which already was a high-income country in 2000, is included in the other high-income group. Emerging markets includes all countries that are included in the Standard and Poor's Emerging Market and Frontier Market indexes and that were not highincome in 2000. All other countries are included in the group developing countries. A number of countries that were low-income in 2000 but which are now in the Frontier Market Index (Bangladesh, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya and Zimbabwe) are included in the developing countries group. 10 remained limited until investment picked up again in 2006. Still in Latin America shares went up considerably, from 25 to 39 percent. Foreign bank penetration in Sub Saharan Africa, already high in 1995 at 31 percent, in part due to past colonial links, only further rose over the sample period and in 2009 over 50 percent of the banks active in the region were foreign owned. Second, even though foreign banks are now present in almost all countries (in 1995 20 countries did not have any foreign bank present whereas in 2009 only 12 countries do so), their market shares differ widely across countries, with presence generally negatively related to the level of development of the host country. Especially in many emerging markets and developing countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa do foreign banks now capture at least 50 percent of the domestic banking sector. Figure 4 shows the relative foreign bank presence across all 129 host countries in terms of numbers (left panel) and assets (right panel) in 2009, from the top 10 to the bottom 10 countries. It highlights how large differences in market shares are, varying from over 90 percent in the top six host countries to single digit percentages in the bottom 21 host countries. Similarly, the range of asset shares varies also much. The drop in asset share though is steeper below the middle range compared to that in the number share. This reflects that host countries tend to have either many large or few small foreign banks. Foreign bank ownership does not only differ substantially across host countries, but it also varies importantly by home country as some countries export more banks than others do. Table 2 shows that in absolute numbers, not surprisingly, OECD countries export the largest number of foreign banks, 883 in 2009, and emerging markets and developing countries much fewer, 268 and 97 respectively. Exports did become less concentrated, however, as investments from emerging markets and developing countries increased more over time. While the number of foreign banks owned by OECD home countries increased by 58 percent over the sample period, those owned by other high-income countries, emerging markets and developing countries grew by 125, 84 and 102 percent respectively. Although the majority of parent banks today are still from an OECD country (with a strong concentration in some countries), 28 percent of foreign banks in 2009 was owned by a bank from an emerging or developing country. The rise in foreign banks reflects established investors from the same countries further increasing the number of banks they own and the entrance of investors from new countries. While in 1995, 78 home countries were active as foreign investors, in 2009 this increased to 97, mostly due to a growing importance of emerging markets and developing countries as 11 investors. While in 1995, 46 different emerging markets and developing countries owned foreign banks abroad, by 2009 this number had increased to 59. As a result, foreign ownership has become less concentrated. In 1995 the five biggest investors (France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States) owned 45 percent of all foreign banks. By 2009, this percentage has dropped to 38 percent. Figure 5 highlights this large variation in home country origin. It shows (left panel) the distribution across home countries’ in their share of foreign banks active in 2009 in terms of numbers. Countries like United Kingdom (10.3 percent), United States (8.5 percent) and France (7 percent) together represent 25 percent of global foreign bank investment, whereas countries below the top 30 each have market shares of 1 percent or less. Similarly, asset shares (right panel) vary from double digits for the top two home countries (United Kingdom 14.8 percent and United States, 11.1 percent) to 1 percent or less for any home country outside the top 20. Again, the falloff in asset share is steeper than for the number share, indicating that the top home countries “export” relatively many, large banks, while the rest of the countries only export a few, smaller banks. The data assembled provide a unique perspective on foreign bank presence as they allow for documenting home-host relations. Studying these bilateral patterns highlights another important heterogeneity: strong income- and region-related patterns. Looking at the diagonal entries in Table 2 shows that banks from OECD countries tend to invest mostly in emerging markets or in other OECD countries. And banks from emerging markets tend to invest in developing countries or emerging markets, while banks from developing countries tend to invest in other developing countries or emerging markets. So banks seem to seek out those host countries that are relatively similar in income levels to their home market, presumably after taking into account competition and profit opportunities. Comparing the top and bottom panels of Table 2 shows that this pattern has strengthened over time among developing countries, highlighting the increasing role of South-South investment in foreign bank ownership, as analyzed by Van Horen (2006). Furthermore, foreign bank entry also tends to be regionally concentrated (Table 3). Splitting countries in four broad geographical regions that cut across income groups (America, Asia, Europe, and Middle East and Africa), we see that both in 1995 and 2009 the share of foreign banks coming from countries within the region is always more than 50% (the diagonal in Table 3). The highest intraregional share in 2009 is, maybe surprisingly, found for Middle East and Africa, more than 70%. In all regions except America, the intraregional share has increased over time which mirrors the trend towards greater intraregional activity found in 12 trade.6 This pattern may not surprise since research has shown that foreign banks tend to follow their customers and therefore tend to enter countries with strong trade linkages (e.g., Goldberg and Grosse, 1991). In addition, studies have found that banks tend to invest in countries that are (geographical and/or institutional) close (e.g., Buch and De Long (2004); Galindo, Micco, and Serra 2003)). Claessens and Van Horen (2012b) show, however, that not only absolute distances matter but also the distance of competitor countries. Finally, it is important to realize that foreign banks vary much with respect to their business models, size and profitability. Some of this heterogeneity is shown in Figures 6a-6f.7 The loan to deposits ratio is a proxy for the degree to which a bank is active in traditional forms of financial intermediation, i.e., lending. This ratio tends to vary much across foreign banks (Figure 6a), indicating that some foreign banks are financing their lending mostly from (local) deposits, while others importantly use additional sources of (wholesale) funding. Foreign banks also tend to have significant liquid assets relative to total assets (Figure 6b), reflecting conservative management. The variation is again large, however, as the ratio ranges between 5 and 80 percent. In terms of solvency, foreign banks tend to have ratios of capital to risk-weighted assets similar to domestic banks, which on average hold 18 percent capital (Figure 6c). This suggests that many foreign banks are also conservative with respect to their capital buffers, as international guidelines suggest capital adequacy requirements of 8%. Nevertheless, a substantial number of foreign banks still have relatively low capital ratios. In terms of performance, foreign banks tend to slightly underperform domestic banks with returns on assets in general hovering at or below the 2 percent level (Figure 6d). This may surprise since foreign banks, with greater access to know-how, technology and lower cost of funds, are generally believed to be quite profitable. Some of this lower profitability probably reflects foreign banks’ specific activities; for example, they could have more conservative portfolios. However, it may also reflect differences in the origin of foreign banks and the ease by which they operate in foreign countries.8 6 As shown by Whalley and Xin (2007), trade has become increasingly more regional over the last three decades, which they explain by the proliferation of regional free trade agreements. 7 We use 2007 balance sheet information in Figure 6 to avoid results being contaminated by the financial crisis. 8 Claessens and Van Horen (2012a) show that the profitability of foreign banks is importantly affected by home, host and institutional factors. They find, for example, that foreign banks perform better when from a high income country and when regulations in the host country are relatively weak. Also foreign banks from home countries with the same language and similar regulation as the host country tend to perform better. These factors explain some of the differences in the simple averages. 13 Figure 6e shows the ratio of deposits to liabilities, which indicates the importance of wholesale funding relative to traditional deposits. Here large variations also exist, but on average foreign banks have a deposit to liability ratio of about 73 percent, the same as domestic banks. Finally, Figure 6f shows how most foreign banks represent only a small share of total banking system assets in respective host markets, with shares generally less than 10 percent. As noted, however, some individual foreign banks are significant in local banking systems, in some cases with shares over 30 percent. Summarizing, our data show not only that foreign banks have become much more important over the last two decades in many countries’ banking systems, but also that there is much heterogeneity in investment patterns. In the next section, we examine, taking this heterogeneity into account, one prominent and controversial question: the impact of foreign bank ownership on the provision of credit. 4. Foreign banks and domestic credit creation In this section we examine the link between foreign ownership and the provision of credit to the private sector. The extent to which foreign banks contribute to financial sector development is possibly one of the most controversial aspects of foreign bank presence. Although some studies have looked at the relationship between private credit and foreign bank ownership, surprisingly little is known under what conditions foreign ownership positively relates to private credit and when negatively. The recent financial crisis has given further impetus to this question. Given the substantial differences across foreign banks, as highlighted, allowing for various types of heterogeneity can be important when studying this issue. Methodology To assess the impact of foreign bank ownership, we use cross-country regression analyses to test whether foreign bank presence is associated with higher or lower levels of private credit and which host country and bank characteristics may drive this relationship. Detragiache, Gupta and Tressel (2008) develop a theoretical model that predicts a negative relationship between foreign bank presence and private credit for low-income countries. Studying a sample of 89 low- and lower-middle income countries, they find that foreign bank presence is indeed negatively related to private credit. Since they did not include other countries, however, the generality of this result is not obvious. And, as is true for many cross14 country studies, it may be due to other, omitted factors. Our sample consists of 111 countries for which we have information on foreign bank presence and private credit, allowing us to examine the robustness of this finding to a number of host country characteristics. Furthermore, as the database includes the identity of the home country of the foreign bank, we can study whether the effects vary by foreign bank home country. Our dependent variable is the ratio of private credit to GDP (from the IMF International Financial Statistics). We take the 3-year average (2005-2007) to smooth out business cycle fluctuations. Our independent variable of interest, Foreign presence, is the ratio of foreign bank assets to total bank assets in the country, measured as of 2004 to limit as much as possible endogeneity concerns.9 As control variables, we add a number of variables known to affect the level of private credit in an economy (see, for example, Djankov, McLiesh and Shleifer 2007), all also measured as of 2004. The first variable is the overall level of development in the country as measured by GDP per capita, with more developed countries having generally a higher level of private credit. We control for Inflation as it has been shown to adversely affect financial depth. In addition, we include two variables capturing host countries' institutional quality as related to the ease of doing banking business: the availability of information to creditors (Creditor info), and the cost of enforcing contracts (Enforcement contracts). Both these variables come from the World Bank’s Doing Business indicators. The obvious drawback of this type of cross-sectional regression is that the market share of foreign banks could be endogenous to the host country’s financial development, including private credit. As also pointed out by Detragiache, Gupta and Tressel (2008) the bias could, however, run both ways. On the one hand, foreign banks might be more willing to enter countries where (for other reasons) financial development is particularly low as they expect these markets to grow faster. On the other hand, business prospects might be worse in countries with low levels of development, making foreign banks more reluctant to enter. As the bias is thus not obvious, we continue using OLS regressions with robust standard errors. Empirical results Table 4 presents the results of our cross-country regression. Using all 111 countries in our sample, we find a negative correlation between the presence of foreign banks and private credit to GDP (column 1). A one standard deviation increase in Foreign presence is 9 When asset information is too limited in a particular country in 2004 to get a reliable estimate for Foreign presence we use the 2005 asset share instead. 15 associated with a decline in private credit of 5 percentage points, economically significant, since the average ratio of private credit to GDP in our sample is 50 percent. We also find some evidence of a non-linear relationship (column 2). This, however, is mostly driven by a few outliers: high-income countries with very large financial sectors compared to the size of their economy that are either dominated by foreign banks (Hong Kong, Ireland and New Zealand) or with hardly any foreign banks (Iceland). When we exclude these countries, we find again a negative (linear) relation that is even stronger (not reported). In terms of our control variables, we find (as expected) GDP per capita to be generally positively associated with more financial development and inflation with less financial development. Access to creditor information has a positive impact on financial sector development, but is imprecisely estimated. In general, the longer it takes for contracts to be enforced, the less credit is created, but this effect is often also imprecisely estimated. In order to test whether the relationship between foreign bank presence and the provision of private credit is conditional on certain host country features, we next study a number of subsamples of host countries. First, we test whether the impact of foreign bank presence differs between the group of developing countries, emerging markets, and highincome countries. The results in Table 4 column 3-5 show that this is indeed the case. We find that foreign bank presence is only negatively related to private credit in developing countries. A one standard deviation increase in Foreign presence is associated with a decline in private credit of 5 percentage points (compared to a mean private credit to GDP ratio of 20 percent in this group of countries). This confirms the results of Detragiache, Gupta and Tressel (2008) that for low-income countries foreign bank presence is negatively related with private credit. Second, we look at the relative importance of foreign banks in the host country. A number of studies have found evidence that the behavior of foreign banks might be related to their relative importance in the host country. For example, Claessens and Lee (2003) find fewer spillovers with more limited entry. And Cull and Martinez Peria (2008) show that in countries where foreign banks hold more than 10 percent of the assets, private credit was significantly higher than in countries with shares less than 10 percent before, during and after crises. Since the relative importance of foreign bank presence varies a lot across the countries in our sample, we can test the existence of such a threshold effect as well. We split our sample between countries where foreign banks control less than half of the assets and countries in which they hold more than half. The results in the next two columns (6 and 7) show that the negative relation between foreign bank presence and private credit is driven by countries where foreign banks control less than half the assets. This suggests that in countries where 16 foreign banks are small, maybe as they enter through greenfield investments, they tend to remain a niche player, targeting only specific customers and not adding to domestic financial development. In contrast, in countries with greater presence, foreign banks seem to engage more in financial intermediation. Third, we investigate whether institutional characteristics known to affect the level of private credit in an economy drive the relationships. We therefore split our sample between countries where the costs of contract enforcement are high (above median costs in our sample) and where they are low (below median), and between countries where credit information is low (below median) and where it is high (above median). We find that the general negative relationship between private credit and foreign bank presence for emerging markets and developing countries seems at least in part driven by those countries with high costs of contract enforcement and with low credit information (column 8-11). These regression results suggest it is important to allow for various types of country heterogeneity when studying the effects of foreign bank presence. We also want to investigate whether foreign bank characteristics affect the relationship between foreign bank presence and private credit. Specifically, we test whether the distance of the parent bank to the host country affects the relationship between foreign bank presence and the provision of credit. Both theoretical (e.g., Hauswald and Marquez, 2006) and empirical studies (e.g., Berger and DeYoung, 2001, 2006; Mian, 2006) suggest that foreign banks that are closer to the host country are better equipped to provide loans as they can better process soft information. Furthermore, the farther soft information is transmitted within the bank, the less useful it becomes for making decisions as its quality deteriorates (for theory, see Aghion and Tirole, 1997; and Stein, 2002; and for empirical evidence, see Berger, Miller, Petersen, Rajan and Stein, 2005; Liberti 2005; and Liberti and Mian, 2009). Therefore, one would expect the provision of credit to be more likely positively correlated to foreign bank presence when banks from nearby countries have entered. To test whether this is indeed the case, we interact Foreign presence with a variable that indicates whether foreign banks active in a country are relatively close or distant. This variable, Distant banks, is calculated for each host country as the (asset share-weighted) average geographical distance between the host and home country of all foreign banks active in the country. Table 5 column 1 shows that foreign bank presence in emerging markets and developing countries is only negatively related to private credit when foreign banks are relatively distant, as the foreign bank presence variable itself is now actually positive (but not 17 significant), while the interaction variable is statistically significant negative.10 This is in line with theoretical and empirical evidence that suggests that distance makes it harder for foreign banks to extend credit. It also suggests that the finding of Detragiache, Tressel and Gupta (2008) that in low-income countries foreign banks hurt private credit availability may be importantly driven by the distance foreign banks have to the host country. We next explore whether the impact on private credit of the relative distance of the foreign banks active in the country matters as well in regards to the other host country characteristics we studied in Table 4: the relative presence of foreign banks, the costs of enforcement, and the quality of credit information. The results (column 2-4) show that, once we control for the relative distance of the foreign banks active in the country, the impacts of foreign bank presence for these subsamples are no longer statistically significant negative. This suggest that the negative relationships between foreign bank presence and private credit we found in Table 4 for the same subsamples are at least in part driven by the distance of the foreign banks to the host country (even though the interaction variable itself is not statistically significant). Although one has to be careful to make any inferences about the direction of causality, these results suggest that it is not so much the level of development or the institutional environment of the host country that matters, but rather the fact that foreign banks that are more remote tend to enter countries with such characteristics. And this large distance between home and host country in turn might make foreign banks engage in creamskimming activities, which then negatively affects overall credit developments. 5. Conclusions The potential benefits and risks of foreign bank presence have been studied for some time. Still, little is known why foreign banks enter some markets and not others, and how this relates to home and host country factors, including bilateral aspects. In terms of impact, questions exist on whether and if so how foreign banks improve the efficiency of domestic financial systems, increase financial sector development and access to financial services, and enhance countries’ overall economic growth. Furthermore, the crisis has highlighted that there can be risks associated with cross-border banking and foreign bank presence. These developments have led to an increased interest among academics and demand among policy 10 We take both emerging markets and developing countries together in this regression as otherwise the sample would be too small to do meaningful interactions. However, when running the same regression on both country groups separately the results are qualitatively the same, except that the interaction variable is just insignificant (p-value of 0.14 in both cases) 18 makers for more analyses on the benefits and risks of foreign bank presence, also relative to other forms of international financial integration, to help guide regulatory reforms. Research and policy questions being asked include: for which types of countries and under which circumstances do foreign banks add the most to domestic financial sector development; given that the impact of foreign ownership may be less advantageous for countries with a certain characteristics, which institutions are most important to improve when having greater foreign bank presence; when does the presence of foreign banks help mitigate the effects of various shocks on host countries’ banking systems and when do they not; do differences between types of foreign banks – country of origin, size, degree of international operations, distance between home and host countries etc. – and the relative presence of foreign banks affect their roles in financial sector development and as risk absorbers or amplifiers; and what balance sheets and performance indicators are most important to monitor for assessing foreign banks’ role in domestic financial intermediation? These and other issues will be well served by more in-depth research that in turn can enhance policy recommendations on how to appropriately regulate foreign banks and adjust institutional environments. The database documented and analyzed in this paper can help with research on these topics. It shows that in many countries foreign banks have become an important part of the local banking system, but also that a lot of heterogeneity exists among foreign banks with respect to a number of dimensions. At the same time, it makes clear that the impact of foreign banks on financial development importantly depends on host country and bank characteristics such as distance. As such, the paper highlights that when conducting research on foreign banks it is very important to take this heterogeneity into account. 19 References Aghion, Philippe and Jean Tirole, 1997, “Formal and Real Authority in Organizations,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 105, Pp. 1-29. 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Whalley, John and Xian Xin, 2007, “Regionalization, Changes in Home Bias, and the Growth of World Trade,” Journal of Policy Modeling, forthcoming. 23 Table 1 Number of Banks by Host Country, Aggregates by Income Level and Region 1995 Number Share 2000 Number Share 2005 Number Share 2009 Number Share All countries Domestic Foreign Total 3,192 788 3,980 0.80 0.20 1 3,064 1,069 4,133 0.74 0.26 1 2,861 1,165 4,026 0.71 0.29 1 2,617 1,330 3,947 0.66 0.34 1 Domestic Foreign Total 1,067 238 1,305 0.82 0.18 1 1,092 280 1,372 0.80 0.20 1 1,102 311 1,413 0.78 0.22 1 1,068 329 1,397 0.76 0.24 1 Domestic Foreign Total 79 40 119 0.66 0.34 1 74 38 112 0.66 0.34 1 63 42 105 0.60 0.40 1 62 41 103 0.60 0.40 1 Domestic Foreign Total 1,484 328 1,812 0.82 0.18 1 1,313 473 1,786 0.74 0.26 1 1,159 486 1,645 0.70 0.30 1 1,011 572 1,583 0.64 0.36 1 Domestic Foreign Total 562 182 744 0.76 0.24 1 585 278 863 0.68 0.32 1 537 326 863 0.62 0.38 1 476 388 864 0.55 0.45 1 Domestic Foreign Total Eastern Europe and Central Asia Domestic Foreign Total Latin America and Caribbean Domestic Foreign Total Middle East and North Africa Domestic Foreign Total South Asia Domestic Foreign Total Sub Saharan Africa Domestic Foreign Total 261 56 317 0.82 0.18 1 277 64 341 0.81 0.19 1 296 68 364 0.81 0.19 1 290 93 383 0.76 0.24 1 673 115 788 0.85 0.15 1 610 235 845 0.72 0.28 1 510 310 820 0.62 0.38 1 418 374 792 0.53 0.47 1 604 197 801 0.75 0.25 1 485 254 739 0.66 0.34 1 400 215 615 0.65 0.35 1 369 233 602 0.61 0.39 1 147 32 179 0.82 0.18 1 135 40 175 0.77 0.23 1 120 46 166 0.72 0.28 1 103 57 160 0.64 0.36 1 134 10 144 0.93 0.07 1 144 15 159 0.91 0.09 1 149 15 164 0.91 0.09 1 141 22 163 0.87 0.13 1 227 100 327 0.69 0.31 1 247 143 390 0.63 0.37 1 221 158 379 0.58 0.42 1 166 181 347 0.48 0.52 1 Income groups OECD Other high-income Emerging markets Developing countries Region East Asia and Pacific Note: OECD includes all core OECD countries. Other high-income countries includes all countries classified as high-income by the World Bank in 2000 but not belonging to the OECD. Emerging markets includes all countries that are included in the Standard and Poor’s Emerging Market and Frontier Markets indexes and that were not high-income countries in 2000. Developing countries includes all other countries. The regions represent the regional classification as used by the World Bank. Table 2 Number and Share of Foreign Banks from Home to Host Income Groups, 1995 and 2009 Number and share of foreign banks from home country present in host country Home income group OECD Other high-income Emerging markets Developing countries Number and share of foreign banks from home country present in host country Home income group OECD Other high-income Emerging markets Developing countries OECD Nr. Share 197 9 28 4 0.35 0.29 0.19 0.08 OECD Nr. Share 272 10 40 7 0.31 0.14 0.15 0.07 1995 Host income group OHI EM Nr. Share Nr. Share 24 0 13 3 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.06 246 14 52 15 0.44 0.45 0.36 0.31 2009 Host income group OHI EM Nr. Share Nr. Share 18 4 17 2 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.02 413 38 94 25 0.47 0.54 0.35 0.26 DEV Nr. Share 93 8 52 26 0.17 0.26 0.36 0.54 DEV Nr. Share 180 18 117 63 0.20 0.26 0.44 0.65 Total Nr. Share 560 31 145 48 1 1 1 1 Total Nr. Share 883 70 268 97 1 1 1 1 Note: OECD includes all core OECD countries. Other high-income countries includes all countries classified as high-income by the World Bank in 2000 but not belonging to the OECD. Emerging markets includes all countries that are included in the Standard and Poor’s Emerging Market and Frontier Markets indexes and that were not high-income countries in 2000. Developing countries includes all other countries. Table 3 Number and Share of Foreign Banks from Home to Host Regions, 1995 and 2009 Number and share of foreign banks from home country present in host country Home region AMERICA ASIA EUR MEA Number and share of foreign banks from home country present in host country Home region AMERICA ASIA EUR MEA AMERICA Nr. Share 116 15 93 2 0.61 0.16 0.22 0.03 AMERICA Nr. Share 128 22 121 4 0.58 0.17 0.15 0.02 1995 Host region ASIA EUR Nr. Share Nr. Share 23 52 37 4 0.12 0.57 0.09 0.05 40 15 235 17 0.21 0.16 0.55 0.22 2009 Host region ASIA EUR Nr. Share Nr. Share 24 83 61 11 0.11 0.63 0.08 0.06 56 19 522 32 0.25 0.14 0.66 0.18 MEA Nr. Share 10 9 62 54 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.70 MEA Nr. Share 12 8 85 130 0.05 0.06 0.11 0.73 Total Nr. Share 189 91 427 77 Nr. 1 1 1 1 Total Share 220 132 789 177 1 1 1 1 Note: Countries are grouped in four geographical regions irrespective of the income level of the countries. "America" includes Canada, United States and all countries in Latin American and the Caribbean, "Asia" includes all countries in Central, East and South Asia and the Pacific countries including Japan, Australia and New Zealand. "Europe" includes all Western and Eastern European countries "MEA" includes all countries in the Middle East and North and Sub-Saharan Africa. Table 4 Private Credit and Foreign Bank Presence - Host Country Heterogeneity [1] Foreign presence Foreign presence - squared GDP per capita Inflation Creditor info Enforcement Constant Nr. of obs. R2 [2] All countries -0.174** -0.635** (0.018) (0.028) 0.511* (0.070) 0.000*** 0.000*** (0.000) (0.000) -0.007*** -0.006*** (0.000) (0.001) 0.022 0.027* (0.175) (0.100) -0.000 -0.000 (0.592) (0.913) 0.239*** 0.262*** (0.000) (0.000) 111 111 0.640 0.647 [3] [4] [5] Emerging markets -0.041 (0.723) High income countries 0.136 (0.604) [6] Foreign banks < 50% market share -0.288* (0.057) [7] Foreign banks > 50% market share -0.071 (0.674) Developing countries -0.155*** (0.003) 0.000 (0.778) -0.004*** (0.001) 0.028** (0.011) -0.001** (0.044) 0.259*** (0.000) 46 0.462 0.000 (0.891) -0.025*** (0.000) -0.010 (0.605) -0.002** (0.022) 0.664*** (0.000) 39 0.267 0.000 (0.913) 0.062 (0.392) 0.106 (0.280) 0.009 (0.646) 0.297 (0.718) 26 0.089 0.000*** (0.000) -0.009*** (0.001) 0.037* (0.099) -0.001 (0.410) 0.302*** (0.000) 76 0.577 0.000*** (0.000) -0.004 (0.258) -0.017 (0.204) 0.001 (0.341) 0.072 (0.649) 35 0.878 [8] [9] Cost contract Cost contract enforcement enforcement high low -0.246* -0.110* (0.096) (0.080) 0.000*** (0.000) -0.007* (0.082) -0.026 (0.711) -0.000 (0.987) 0.426 (0.266) 57 0.608 0.000 (0.122) -0.004 (0.161) 0.043** (0.028) -0.001*** (0.001) 0.291*** (0.000) 54 0.396 [10] [11] Credit Credit information information low high -0.209** -0.127 (0.010) (0.377) 0.000*** (0.001) -0.005*** (0.005) 0.006 (0.715) -0.001 (0.148) 0.301*** (0.000) 56 0.629 0.000*** (0.000) -0.020* (0.056) 0.026 (0.357) 0.013 (0.444) 0.040 (0.911) 55 0.572 Note: The table reports the results of a cross-section regression over a sample of 111 countries. The dependent variable is private credit to GDP averaged over the period 2005-2007. Foreign presence equals the assets held by foreign banks as a share of total assets in the country. GDP per capita is GDP in US dollars divided by the population. Inflation is the log difference in the consumer price index. Creditor information captures the availability to banks of credit information about borrowers and Enforcement measures the costs that have to be made to enforce a basic business contract as a percentage of the debt value. All regressors are based on 2004 values. Regression in column [3], [4] and [5] include only countries that we categorized as developing countries, emerging markets and high-income countries, respectively. For exact categorization see main text. In column [6] only countries are include where foreign banks hold less than 50 percent of the assets in the domestic banking system and in column [7] only those countries in which they hold more than 50 percent. In column [8] only countries are included in which the cost of contract enforcement is above the median value in our sample of countries and in column [8] only those countries are included with below median level of enforement cost. In column [10] only countries are included with the level of available credit information below the median level of our sample of countries and in column [11] only those countries that are above the median level. The model is estimated using OLS and the standard errors are robust. Robust p-values appear in parentheses and ***, **, * correspond to the one, five and ten percent level of significance, respectively Table 5 Private Credit and Foreign Bank Presence - Distance Foreign presence Foreign presence * Distant banks GDP per capita Inflation Creditor info Enforcement contracts Constant Nr. of obs. R2 [1] [2] Emerging markets and developing Foreign banks < countries 50% market share 0.343 0.632 (0.205) (0.376) -0.067** -0.128 (0.048) (0.177) 0.000* 0.000*** (0.078) (0.000) -0.006*** -0.008*** (0.001) (0.001) 0.021* 0.046** (0.078) (0.046) -0.001** -0.000 (0.015) (0.674) 0.323*** 0.276*** (0.000) (0.000) 85 76 0.393 0.584 [3] [4] Cost contract enforcement high -0.554 (0.372) 0.043 (0.617) 0.000*** (0.000) -0.007* (0.082) -0.028 (0.691) -0.000 (0.939) 0.442 (0.248) 57 0.609 Credit information low -0.221 (0.398) 0.002 (0.965) 0.000*** (0.001) -0.005*** (0.005) 0.006 (0.720) -0.001 (0.157) 0.301*** (0.000) 56 0.629 Note: The table reports the results of a cross-section regression over different samples of 111 countries. The dependent variable is private credit to GDP averaged over the period 2005-2007. Foreign presence equals the assets held by foreign banks as a share of total assets in the country. GDP per capita is GDP in US dollars divided by the population. Distant banks equals the (asset share-weighted) average geographical distance between the host country and the home country of all foreign banks active in the host country Inflation is the log difference in the consumer price index. Creditor information captures the availability to banks of credit information about borrowers and Enforcement measures the costs that have to be made to enforce a basic business contract as a percentage of the debt value. All regressors are based on 2004 values. The regression in column [1] includes only countries that we categorized as developing countries or emerging markets. For exact categorization see main text. In column [2] only countries are include where foreign banks hold less than 50 percent of the assets in the domestic banking system. In column [3] only countries are included in which the cost of contract enforcement is above the median value in our full sample of (111) countries and in column [4] only countries are included with the level of available credit information below the median level The model is estimated using OLS and the standard errors are robust. Robust p-values appear in Figure 1 Number and Share of Foreign Banks, 1995 - 2009 Numbers Share 1600 0.40 1400 0.35 1200 1000 0.30 800 0.25 600 400 0.20 200 0 0.15 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Number of foreign banks Share of foreign banks Figure 2 Number of Entries and Exits of Foreign Banks, 1995 - 2009 Numbers 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 NA 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Entry Exit Note: As the database starts in 1995 the number of foreign banks that exited the market in that year cannot be determined. Figure 3 Foreign Bank Presence, 1995 and 2009 Figure 4 Foreign Bank Presence by Top Host Countries, 2009 Top 10 countries Top 10 countries 11-20 11-20 21-30 21-30 31-40 31-40 41-50 41-50 51-60 51-60 61-70 61-70 71-80 71-80 81-90 81-90 91-100 91-100 101-110 111-120 101-110 121-129 111-115 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Share in numbers (%) excludes outside values 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Share in assets (%) excludes outside values Note: The figure ranks all host countries by the share of foreign banks in the domestic banking system in terms of numbers (left pane) and assets (right pane) as of 2009. For each group of ten host countries it shows the median, quartiles and minum and maximum Figure 5 Foreign Bank Exports by Top Home Countries, 2009 Top 10 countries Top 10 countries 11-20 11-20 21-30 21-30 31-40 31-40 41-50 41-50 51-60 51-60 61-70 61-70 71-80 71-80 81-90 81-90 91-97 91-92 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Share in numbers (%) excludes outside values 9 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Share in assets (%) excludes outside values Note: The figure ranks all home countries by the share of foreign banks from that country in total foreign banks active in terms of numbers (left pane) and assets (right pane) as of 2009. For each group of ten home countries it shows the median, quartiles and minum and maximum 16 Figure 6 Balance Sheet and Performance Measures of Foreign Banks, 2007 .2 Fraction .1 0 0 .1 Fraction .2 .3 Fig b. Liquidity ratio .3 Fig a. Loans-to-deposits 0 .5 1 t 1.5 d e l p _ m 2 2.5 0 .2 .4 .6 q il _ m .8 .3 Fraction .2 .1 0 0 .1 Fraction .2 .3 .4 Fig d. ROA .4 Fig c. Capital ratio 0 .2 c a p _ m .4 .6 .8 -.02 0 .02 r a _ o m .04 .06 .08 .6 Fraction .4 0 0 .2 .1 Fraction .2 .3 .8 Fig f. Foreign banks share in assets .4 Fig e. Deposits-to-Liabilities .4 .6 d _ lm .8 1 0 .2 s h a re h _ ta .4 .6 Note: The vertical red lines represent the averages across domestic banks. Loans to deposits equals total loans to deposits. Liquidity ratio measures liquid assets divided by total assets. Capital ratio equals the capital divided by risk-weighted assets. ROA measures return on assets. Deposits to liabilities equals deposits divided by liabilities. Foreign bank share in assets equals total assets of a foreign bank divided by total assets in the banking system of the country in which the bank is located. All balance sheet and performance measures are measured in 2007. Appendix Table 1 - Percentage of Foreign Banks among Total Banks, by Country Country 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 EAP Cambodia China Indonesia Korea Rep. Malaysia Mongolia Philippines Thailand Vietnam 18 25 13 24 0 26 0 12 5 11 18 22 13 26 0 25 0 15 5 10 17 22 11 26 0 25 0 15 0 10 17 33 9 27 0 24 0 16 6 10 19 33 9 30 0 25 0 17 18 10 19 44 9 31 0 26 0 17 18 10 19 40 8 29 6 32 14 16 18 10 18 33 8 32 7 30 14 14 17 9 18 33 7 30 13 30 14 12 17 12 18 33 7 31 19 30 14 14 17 12 19 38 6 34 19 31 14 14 15 12 18 36 6 36 19 33 13 14 15 9 23 43 15 48 19 33 13 15 14 9 24 43 17 48 19 33 13 15 19 9 24 43 18 49 19 33 13 13 19 9 ECA Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia-Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Georgia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Moldova Poland Romania Russia Slovakia Turkey Ukraine Uzbekistan 15 25 17 5 11 11 22 6 38 8 0 67 20 50 13 0 0 8 30 19 7 3 39 13 4 20 17 40 17 10 15 17 28 13 38 8 0 68 15 20 17 0 15 8 38 21 7 3 42 13 4 27 19 50 17 10 14 20 31 18 38 8 0 73 29 43 27 0 15 21 44 32 8 3 40 12 9 25 22 63 23 14 14 17 36 23 42 11 0 74 38 43 29 9 15 27 52 39 9 3 40 14 12 23 25 63 29 14 14 21 46 28 52 29 15 78 35 38 32 18 21 31 61 45 9 6 41 15 13 23 28 75 29 14 27 27 44 31 52 43 21 78 33 38 29 50 36 31 62 57 9 9 55 15 15 21 30 75 36 14 29 43 48 33 54 43 15 81 34 38 27 56 38 31 66 57 9 17 67 15 17 20 32 75 38 10 32 45 54 33 54 43 15 79 34 38 32 67 38 31 69 63 11 18 83 20 19 20 33 70 38 10 36 43 57 26 57 43 21 83 31 50 32 67 44 31 69 70 12 26 89 21 18 20 35 73 43 10 36 44 57 28 57 57 21 85 31 63 41 67 44 31 69 70 13 30 89 21 22 19 38 82 50 10 43 52 61 32 55 71 31 85 32 63 45 67 47 31 75 74 14 39 89 24 27 18 41 77 64 10 43 52 67 35 64 71 50 90 36 63 50 67 50 38 71 81 15 53 88 35 32 18 45 85 64 14 50 58 67 43 68 71 58 93 39 63 57 70 64 41 71 85 17 65 88 41 39 24 47 83 69 14 55 57 67 43 71 71 67 93 39 63 62 70 71 41 70 81 19 63 88 41 44 24 47 83 75 14 55 57 67 43 71 71 67 92 39 63 62 70 71 44 71 81 19 61 87 41 46 24 LAC Antigua & Barbuda Argentina Barbados Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Rep. Ecuador El Salvador Guatamala Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay 28 14 22 50 27 22 47 20 13 0 5 18 18 11 0 19 30 32 17 64 52 30 13 24 50 27 24 47 23 13 0 5 17 25 11 0 19 30 38 17 64 55 33 13 29 50 29 28 48 27 13 0 5 18 46 17 0 22 30 44 33 63 52 34 13 32 50 42 31 47 29 15 0 5 18 46 17 0 22 30 44 33 61 59 36 13 37 50 45 33 50 28 19 0 4 22 46 20 0 22 33 43 36 60 62 36 13 37 50 45 34 50 29 18 0 4 23 54 21 0 26 33 49 50 59 60 37 13 37 50 45 34 46 29 20 0 6 18 58 21 0 30 50 48 57 58 63 38 22 34 50 45 34 44 29 20 0 9 15 58 21 0 35 63 56 50 62 65 38 22 36 80 45 35 44 25 20 0 11 15 58 23 0 35 63 56 50 62 62 38 22 35 100 45 35 39 23 20 0 12 15 58 22 0 41 71 54 50 62 62 38 22 34 100 45 34 41 24 21 0 12 15 64 23 0 41 71 50 40 62 62 39 22 34 100 40 35 41 28 20 0 10 15 82 26 0 41 71 47 67 62 62 41 33 35 100 40 37 48 28 21 0 10 15 90 36 0 58 71 46 67 63 64 42 33 35 100 40 38 48 28 18 0 10 15 90 41 0 56 71 48 83 65 64 42 33 35 100 40 38 48 28 18 0 10 19 90 41 0 56 71 48 83 66 62 Serbia & Montenegro Appendix Table 1 cont'd - Percentage of Foreign Banks among Total Banks, by Country Country 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Peru Trinidad & Tobago Uruguay Venezuela 33 43 77 10 39 43 77 15 42 50 77 16 48 44 74 25 50 44 74 25 59 44 73 25 63 44 76 24 63 44 80 28 60 44 78 22 60 44 77 24 57 56 77 26 60 56 81 26 63 56 81 24 63 67 81 26 63 67 81 22 MENA Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iran Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman Saudi Arabia Tunisia Yemen 20 14 63 6 0 11 28 0 33 0 0 36 0 20 14 63 6 0 10 28 0 33 0 0 36 0 20 14 63 9 0 10 29 0 29 0 0 33 0 22 25 56 13 0 10 31 0 36 0 0 33 0 22 22 56 16 0 10 30 0 36 0 0 33 0 24 42 56 16 0 10 33 0 36 0 0 38 0 24 42 50 19 0 10 33 0 36 0 0 38 0 25 47 50 19 0 10 34 0 31 0 0 44 0 27 53 56 19 0 10 34 0 36 0 0 44 0 28 53 64 19 0 20 32 0 40 0 0 44 0 30 57 58 21 0 30 34 0 36 0 0 50 0 34 57 58 44 0 30 35 0 40 0 0 50 0 37 64 57 52 0 30 40 0 40 0 0 50 0 37 64 60 52 0 40 38 0 40 0 0 50 0 38 64 60 52 0 40 38 0 50 0 0 50 0 OHI Cyprus Hong Kong Israel Kuwait Qatar Singapore Slovenia United Arab Emirate 38 55 67 12 0 0 41 12 18 38 57 67 12 0 0 41 12 18 38 57 68 12 0 0 41 12 18 39 57 67 12 0 0 48 13 18 41 57 69 12 0 0 52 14 18 39 57 68 12 0 0 50 14 18 41 60 70 12 0 0 50 19 18 44 62 72 13 0 0 55 29 18 44 62 73 14 0 0 55 29 18 43 58 76 0 0 0 55 30 18 45 60 76 0 13 0 55 33 18 44 60 75 0 11 0 55 33 18 44 60 74 0 11 0 55 33 18 44 60 74 0 11 0 55 39 21 44 60 76 0 11 0 52 39 21 OECD Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States 18 35 4 33 41 2 13 7 10 14 0 79 3 0 97 45 50 1 17 4 2 25 42 15 19 33 5 33 41 2 13 7 9 14 0 81 3 0 97 47 63 1 17 4 2 24 45 16 19 38 5 32 44 2 13 7 11 7 0 81 3 0 97 47 63 1 17 5 2 24 46 16 19 38 5 33 44 4 13 6 10 7 0 82 4 0 97 50 63 1 17 5 2 24 47 15 20 38 5 34 44 4 13 7 10 8 0 79 5 0 96 50 63 1 17 5 2 23 48 17 20 40 7 35 40 6 13 8 11 14 0 79 5 0 96 47 63 1 20 5 1 23 48 19 21 40 7 39 40 9 13 7 11 13 0 83 5 1 97 47 56 1 23 6 1 22 48 21 21 40 8 39 40 9 13 7 12 11 0 86 5 1 97 47 56 1 27 6 1 22 49 21 22 40 8 39 42 11 11 7 13 16 0 86 5 1 97 47 56 1 27 6 1 22 51 21 22 40 9 36 42 11 11 6 12 21 0 86 5 1 97 47 67 1 31 5 1 22 53 23 22 40 10 38 41 9 11 6 13 21 0 86 5 1 97 44 67 1 30 5 1 21 54 24 23 40 10 38 41 9 20 6 13 32 0 87 6 1 97 44 67 1 30 7 1 23 54 24 23 40 10 38 41 9 22 6 13 28 0 87 10 2 97 41 67 1 30 7 1 23 56 28 23 40 10 39 41 8 22 6 14 28 0 87 10 1 97 38 67 1 32 7 1 23 57 29 24 40 10 42 41 9 22 6 14 28 0 87 10 1 97 38 67 1 33 7 1 23 57 32 Appendix Table 1 cont'd - Percentage of Foreign Banks among Total Banks, by Country Country 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 SA Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka 7 0 6 36 5 0 8 5 6 31 5 0 8 5 6 31 9 0 9 5 8 25 9 0 9 3 8 25 14 0 9 3 8 25 19 0 9 3 8 22 14 0 8 3 9 15 13 0 8 3 9 15 12 0 8 3 9 15 12 0 9 3 10 15 16 0 12 3 11 15 30 0 13 3 12 13 35 0 13 3 12 13 38 0 13 3 12 13 38 0 SSA Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Congo Cote d'Ivoire Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Seychelles South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe 31 50 83 60 80 17 50 40 67 0 45 24 75 43 20 25 55 33 60 75 5 29 50 33 17 9 80 55 0 47 50 30 32 40 83 60 83 17 50 50 70 0 46 24 75 43 17 20 58 33 50 75 5 29 50 33 16 9 80 57 25 53 50 30 33 40 83 50 83 17 43 50 64 0 40 24 75 43 17 20 67 83 50 75 5 29 50 33 15 9 80 56 25 56 50 25 34 40 83 38 86 17 43 50 64 0 40 26 80 43 29 20 67 86 50 75 5 29 50 25 16 9 80 55 25 60 50 25 37 50 86 38 88 17 38 50 64 0 40 26 100 43 38 17 67 100 50 83 9 29 60 25 15 8 80 60 25 67 50 25 38 50 86 44 88 17 56 50 64 0 40 27 100 38 38 17 69 100 50 83 13 14 60 25 13 8 80 60 25 67 50 20 39 50 86 44 88 17 56 57 75 0 43 26 100 50 43 17 64 91 50 83 12 14 64 25 15 8 80 60 25 67 56 19 38 50 86 44 88 17 56 57 75 0 40 26 100 50 38 14 67 91 43 83 11 14 64 25 16 0 80 57 25 71 56 18 39 44 75 44 88 17 56 57 75 0 47 28 100 50 38 14 73 90 43 83 11 14 64 40 17 8 80 55 25 71 56 18 41 44 75 50 88 17 56 57 75 0 53 28 100 50 38 14 73 90 43 83 11 29 64 40 17 13 80 61 25 71 63 20 43 50 78 50 88 17 56 57 75 0 58 30 100 50 38 14 71 90 43 83 10 43 64 40 21 13 80 65 20 71 67 21 49 50 78 44 89 20 60 63 75 0 52 30 100 43 44 14 71 90 43 86 16 43 77 40 21 20 80 65 17 79 67 23 50 50 78 44 89 25 64 63 75 0 48 29 100 43 44 25 67 90 43 86 16 43 85 40 21 27 80 64 17 79 78 31 52 50 78 50 100 50 73 63 77 0 48 31 100 43 56 38 69 91 43 86 16 57 83 40 21 27 80 64 17 76 89 31 53 50 78 50 100 50 80 67 75 0 48 31 100 43 56 38 69 91 43 86 16 57 83 40 21 27 80 64 17 82 89 31 TOTAL 21 22 23 25 26 27 28 28 29 29 30 32 34 34 35 Appendix Table 2 - Percentage of Foreign Bank Assets among Total Bank Assets, by Country Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 EAP Cambodia China Indonesia Korea Rep. Malaysia Mongolia Philippines Thailand Vietnam 5 .. .. 29 16 18 0 .. 3 .. 4 36 0 33 16 17 9 1 3 2 4 39 0 26 13 17 7 2 2 1 5 61 2 33 12 19 7 1 5 1 4 61 2 30 13 18 .. 1 7 1 4 59 1 31 12 17 .. 1 6 1 ECA Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia-Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Georgia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Moldova Poland Romania Russia Serbia & Montenegro Slovakia Turkey Ukraine 51 .. .. 1 .. 67 72 88 84 95 13 65 6 .. 51 91 54 31 72 54 .. 57 95 .. 28 42 .. 56 1 14 87 71 92 83 99 32 63 4 .. 58 92 54 25 76 58 7 69 92 .. 28 43 .. 62 1 12 90 74 90 84 98 66 61 5 .. 64 92 56 31 75 88 9 84 91 17 41 42 93 60 3 19 91 76 90 86 97 66 64 13 .. 65 92 63 37 74 89 10 82 90 17 46 42 94 64 5 19 92 80 90 85 99 66 67 16 .. 66 93 69 41 72 89 13 75 92 15 58 40 91 71 5 18 88 80 90 84 99 66 64 18 .. 66 92 68 41 67 85 12 74 88 13 56 LAC Antigua & Barbuda Argentina Barbados Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Rep. Ecuador El Salvador Guatamala Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama 35 .. 29 100 36 19 .. 10 26 .. 12 12 38 11 .. 31 84 82 31 48 35 .. 27 100 37 21 .. 21 27 .. 9 11 50 11 .. 32 87 83 22 47 35 .. 26 100 18 23 .. 17 23 .. 9 12 80 12 .. 30 87 81 30 56 33 .. 28 100 18 23 .. 14 36 .. 8 13 97 13 .. 47 88 78 48 66 33 .. 29 100 16 19 37 13 36 .. 7 13 97 32 .. 46 95 75 68 .. 29 .. 28 100 15 19 33 12 34 .. 7 15 96 32 .. 49 91 73 67 .. Appendix Table 2 cont'd - Percentage of Foreign Bank Assets among Total Bank Assets, by Co Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Paraguay Peru Trinidad & Tobago Uruguay Venezuela 68 41 13 50 31 63 49 13 75 30 60 48 13 87 29 58 48 14 47 25 62 50 56 48 26 48 48 56 55 .. MENA Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iran Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman Saudi Arabia Tunisia Yemen 13 5 69 10 .. 2 .. .. .. .. .. 20 .. 15 8 67 12 .. 14 .. .. .. .. .. 29 .. 17 8 65 21 .. 16 .. .. .. .. .. 27 .. 19 7 69 25 .. 17 33 .. 19 .. .. 26 .. 17 8 65 25 .. 22 35 .. 18 .. .. 27 .. 18 10 55 25 .. 23 36 .. 31 .. .. 22 .. OHI Cyprus Hong Kong Israel Kuwait Qatar Singapore Slovenia United Arab Emirates 52 15 91 .. .. .. .. 21 3 51 19 92 .. 12 .. 2 25 3 49 22 91 .. 10 .. 10 24 1 46 22 91 .. 8 .. 10 24 1 45 23 91 .. 7 .. 3 26 2 47 19 92 .. 7 .. 7 25 2 OECD Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States 9 .. 26 .. 4 7 .. .. 5 4 .. .. .. 0 100 .. .. .. .. .. 17 2 9 20 11 .. 22 13 4 20 55 5 24 4 .. 40 1 0 100 7 .. 32 16 2 0 4 11 21 11 5 19 13 4 19 65 5 14 13 .. 43 3 0 100 9 83 16 15 2 0 4 12 21 12 5 22 12 4 18 65 6 11 14 .. 42 7 0 95 10 78 17 15 2 0 4 14 23 11 3 25 14 4 18 67 6 12 14 .. 36 6 0 96 2 76 16 15 2 0 5 19 19 11 3 23 49 5 20 65 6 12 14 .. 35 6 0 95 3 78 16 15 2 0 5 15 20 SA Bangladesh India Nepal 5 2 4 22 5 2 4 14 8 3 4 20 8 2 4 16 7 2 5 14 7 3 5 13 Appendix Table 2 cont'd - Percentage of Foreign Bank Assets among Total Bank Assets, by Co Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Pakistan Sri Lanka 29 .. 23 .. 48 .. 50 .. 51 .. 53 .. SSA Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Congo Cote d'Ivoire Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Seychelles South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe 13 50 .. 77 77 38 74 45 89 .. .. 46 100 49 25 5 37 .. .. 68 .. 32 56 57 .. .. 82 .. .. 88 69 .. 25 48 90 77 79 36 71 44 90 .. .. 46 100 46 28 3 44 99 62 72 .. 53 62 52 22 .. 80 92 .. 89 69 .. 26 49 92 69 80 33 74 56 100 .. .. 46 100 46 30 0 58 99 46 74 8 54 68 57 21 8 81 93 .. 95 70 .. 28 50 92 72 76 58 71 58 .. .. 57 39 100 46 40 4 69 100 45 69 8 48 93 60 23 19 83 93 .. 95 87 .. 26 52 92 66 100 64 82 60 .. .. 58 38 100 48 52 10 61 100 53 .. 5 43 93 65 21 20 81 58 .. 86 99 .. 29 55 90 64 100 66 80 62 .. .. 60 38 100 50 51 4 66 100 54 .. 6 27 92 61 22 20 88 57 .. 89 100 44 TOTAL 11 12 12 13 13 13 N Note: Foreign bank asset share is only reported when asset information is available in Bankscope for more than 60 percent of the banks active in the ocountry in that year. Since asset information is lacking in Bankscope for the vast majority of banks before 2004, we do not report asset shares for any
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