Role of Models in Watershed
Management
Karim Abbaspour
[email protected]
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…..
.. And God taught them all the “Names
Names”,
Names , ……
And when We said unto the angels: Worship them,
..
they all worshiped, except Satan …..
Quran (2:30-38)
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“Idea” model
Landuse
“Idea” model
Climate
High Price Information
“Idea” model
Hydrology
Political
process
DATA
Decision
“Idea” model
Ecology
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“Idea” model = Informal conceptual model
Hydrology
model
“Idea” model
Landuse
“Idea” model
Climate
Landuse
model
Political
process
Climate
model
“Idea” model
Ecology
Ecology
model
DATA
4
High Price Information
“Idea” model
Hydrology
Decision
“Idea” model = Informal conceptual model
“Idea” model
Hydrology
Hydrology
model
“Idea” model
Landuse
Landuse
model
DATA
5
“Idea” model
Climate
Climate
model
“Idea” model
Ecology
Ecology
model
Models
HighIntegrated
Priced Information
Modeling in Wateshed Management
Political
process
Decision
“Idea” model = Informal conceptual model
Modeling in Wateshed Management
Landuse
model
DATA
6
“Idea” model
Climate
Climate
model
“Idea” model
Ecology
Ecology
model
High Priced Information
“Idea” model
Landuse
Hydrology
model
Integrated Models
“Idea” model
Hydrology
Socio-economic
analysis
Political
process
Decision
“Idea” model = Informal conceptual model
Cycle of Decision Making
Raw
Data
Processed
Data
Model
High priced
information
- economical
Implementation
- social
- institutional
Policy formulation
- political
Knowledge (system)
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Decision Support System (DSS)
- physical
Model Development
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Informal
conceptual
models
Formal
predictive
models
Scientific
understanding
Management
models inviting
participation and
collaboration
Model and Data Relation
Data
Model
data gaps?
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Basic
Data
… Any successful national policy requires a solid
database behind it
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
…. A solid database is needed to support decision
making in an increasingly complex and environmentally
stressed world
Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
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Basic
Data
Ensure that all data products are available to any user at no more
than the cost of fulfilling user requests. As described in 15 U.S.C. §
5602, this means that data centers will not price data based on the
recovery of capital costs or other assets previously paid for by the
U.S. Government
USGS, Open access
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Basic
Data
The Federal Office of Topography (swisstopo) is a modern
production organization with nearly 270 employees.
Swisstopo creates and maintains the basic geodetic, topographic and
geological data for the whole of Switzerland, publishes the national
map series at a variety of scales and keeps them up to date.
Swisstopo
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Establish an infrastructure for spatial data in Europe
to support environmental policies
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Clearly,
Future of data situation is towards:
- Availability
- Open access
- Viewable with SDIs (spatial data infrastructures) and
Web portals
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Types of Models
1- Common sense models
2- Expert models
3- Scientific models
4- Multidisciplinary management models
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1- Common sense Models
- Conceptual models that we all carry with us
- Everyone’s commonsense model may be different
from everyone’s else’s
- “Common sense” is often not commonly shared
- Our common sense models are extremely
multidisciplinary based on complex set of
experiences
- “Education” is the process that we create common
culture and can get along with other people in the
world
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2- Expert Models
- These are similar to common sense models, but
have developed through years of training, study,
and practice in a particular discipline
- Doctors, engineers, plumbers, builders, etc. are all
experts in their professional fields
- However, professional expertise is often changing
because of new knowledge and often there are
competing and disagreeing expert models within
any given profession
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3- Scientific Models
- A scientific model is a formalization of an expert‘s conceptual
model
- These models are published in journals, or expressed as
formalized algorithms in computer programs
- The computer program can be used by different scientists
under different conditions
- Models that hold up to the scrutiny of other scientists become
valuable tools for watershed management
- But, they have a serious shortcoming: they can each address
only one aspect of the watershed processes in some
significant detail, but other aspects only in simple ways
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4- Multidisciplinary Management Models
- To overcome the short comings of scientific models, many scientists
are collaborating to build integrated multidisciplinary models in support
of watershed management
- But there are serious challenges to these efforts:
- setting up standards for software interaction,
- the cost of integration,
- and the acceptance by watershed managers
SocioSocio-economic
Forces
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InstitutionalInstitutional-legal
Framework
Scientific
Support
Which model to use?
- Deciding on what modeling approach to use
depends on a number of complex and interrelated
issues such as: Funding, time, accuracy
requirement, level of knowledge, legal precedents,
local expertise, stakeholder interest ….
- On a day-to-day basis, managers rely on the
informal common sense models, and expert
models
- The formal scientific and multidisciplinary models
are used by scientists and can have substantial
effect on management decisions
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Stakeholder Interest
Which model to use?
Idea
models
Expert
models
Scientific
models
Scientific Uncertainty
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Ecological Models
-
Animal Simulation Models
1) Individual-based simulations for the study of behavior,
genetics, and evolution
2) Theoretical metapopulation models
3) population-based models for watershed and regional
management
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Ecological Models
-
Landscape Simulation Models
1) Forest Ecological Models
- JABOWA, ZELIG, LANDIS, JABOWA/FORET
2) Patch Theory Models
- PatchMod
3) Cellular Modeling Approach
- Spatial Modeling Environment (SME)
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Hydrologic Models
- Field-scale Hydrologic and Soil Erosion Models
- USLE, MUSLE
- Areal Nonpoint Source Watershed Environmental
Response Simulation (ANSWERS)
- Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS)
- CASC2D
- Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP)
- Simulation of Water Erosion (SIMWE)
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Hydrologic Models
- Watershed-scale Hydrologic and Soil Erosion Models
- TR-20,
- Hydrologic Engineering System (HEC-1)
- HEC-HMS
- Watershed Modeling System (WMS)
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Hydrologic Models
- Groundwater Models
- Integrated system model of Groundwater Nodeling
System (GMS)
- MODFLOW, MODPATH
- SEEP2D
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Hydrologic Models
- Field-scale Water Quality Models
- Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM)
- Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural
Management Systems (GLEAMS)
- Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC)
- Chemical Runoff and Erosion from Agricultural
Management Systems (CREAMS)
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Hydrologic Models
- Watershed-scale Water Quality Models
- MT3D, RT3D, FEMWATER
- WASP
- Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)
- Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
- Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HPSF)
- Better Assessment Science Integrated Point and
Nonpoint Sources (BASINS)
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The Role of GIS
- The non-point source pollution simulations have
involved the linkage of various simulation packages with
GIS
- ESRI, ArcView, ArcGIS
- Open GIS programs, Geographical Resources Analysis
Support Systems (GRASS)
- MapWindow
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Modeling
Steps
• Setting up the model
• Calibration
• Validation
• Sensitivity analysis
• Uncertainty analysis
• Risk analysis
• Analysis of alternatives
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Decision Support Systems
Analyzing
Alternatives
An important part of decision making in watershed
management is to analyze the effect of alternatives
options and to come up with consensus
• Multi-objective Trade-Off Analysis (MTA)
• Analytic Hierachy Process (AHP)
• Multi Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT)
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Improve
business
Improve
biodiversity
Improve
community
Improve
water quality
Objectives
Cost
ACTIONS
MultiObjective
Trade-Off
Analysis
Action Rating
Analysing Alternatives
Importance
3
2
2
3
5
Host watershed fair
3
2
2
3
1
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Buy river front property
1
1
2
3
3
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Introduce legislation
3
1
1
1
2
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Stabilize river bank
1
1
2
1
3
30
Re-meander streams
1
1
3
2
3
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Advertise for tourism
2
3
1
1
1
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Study the problem
1
1
1
1
1
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How to
Connect to
Watershed
Manager?
Watershed
Manager
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Scientist
Scientist
Scientist
Hydraulic
models
Ecologic
models
Economic
models
How to
Connect to
Watershed
Manager?
Watershed Manager
Scientist
Common User Interface
Hydraulic
models
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Ecologic
models
Economic
models
How to
Connect to
Watershed
Manager?
Watershed Manager
Watershed Management Model
Scientist
Hydraulic
models
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Scientist
Ecologic
models
Scientist
Economic
models
Scientific Models & Watershed Management
- There are a large number of excellent groundwater models,
surface drainage models, river water models, transpiration
models, plant growth models, and economic models….
- BUT, there is a big difference between the output of scientific
models and the needs of watershed managers
- There needs to be a lot of analysis, interpretation, and
conversion before scientific model outputs are useful to
decision makers
- The current challenge is in the simultaneous application of
these modeling capabilities to address multi-stakeholder,
multidisciplinary watershed management decisions
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