Disclaimer: The purpose of this briefing is to provide a Regional weather threat
assessment and is meant as a general overview. County/Parish decision makers
should consult their local NWS forecast offices for the latest detailed, local weather
information. To find your local NWS forecast office, go to http://www.srh.noaa.gov and click
on the "Weather Forecast Offices" tab and click on the map for your area.
Monday, October 19, 2015
Issued: 0800 CT
National Weather Service
Southern Region Headquarters
Regional Operations Center
Fort Worth, TX
Prepared by: Julie Lesko
817-978-1100 x 147
Key Points
Monday
• Elevated fire weather conditions over the eastern half of FEMA 6 due to warm
afternoon temperatures/dry conditions/active fires
Tuesday-Friday
• Isolated severe storms and flash flooding possible across New Mexico and far West
Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday
• Heavy rain and flash flooding possible from the Texas Panhandle into South Texas by
Thursday
• Possible elevated fire weather conditions over eastern half of FEMA 6
Tropical Outlook
• Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a weak area of low pressure.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Oct 19, 2015 - Oct 23, 2015
DAY/
THREAT
MON
TUE
WED
Severe
Weather
NM/Far W TX
NM/Far W TX
Heavy Rain /
Flash
Flooding
NM/Far W TX
NM/Far W TX
THU
FRI
NM/TX
NM/TX
Heat
Tropical
Fire
Eastern half of
FEMA 6
No Weather Threats Expected
Very Common – Happens Often
Common – Happens Frequently
Uncommon – A Few Times a Year
Rare – Once Every 1-5 Years
Very Rare – Once Every 5-10 Years
We continue to welcome feedback
on our new color scale (details in
the next slide). Please send
comments to [email protected].
The criteria for the color codes in our briefings is below, please provide
any feedback to [email protected].
Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula are associated with a weak area of low
pressure.
* Formation chance through 48 hours low ...near 0%
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 %
Mon AM - Tue AM
Summary:
Severe storms are not
expected today
Threats:
None
Valid: 0800 Mon - 0800 Tue
Elevated
fire
weather
conditions
No Weather Threats Expected
Very Common – Happens Often
Common – Happens Frequently
Uncommon – A Few Times a Year
Rare – Once Every 1-5 Years
Very Rare – Once Every 5-10 Years
*Threat levels are based on FEMA
Region 6 criteria. State or local
threat level criteria may differ.
Tuesday
Wednesday
Isolated severe storms are expected
on Tuesday or Wednesday
across southern NM and far west TX
Valid: 0800 Tue - 0800 Thu
Areas of flash
flooding
possible
Elevated
fire
weather
conditions
No Weather Threats Expected
Very Common – Happens Often
Common – Happens Frequently
Uncommon – A Few Times a Year
Rare – Once Every 1-5 Years
Very Rare – Once Every 5-10 Years
*Threat levels are based on FEMA
Region 6 criteria. State or local
threat level criteria may differ.
Valid: 0800 Thu - 0800 Sat
Areas of flash
flooding
possible by
Thursday
No Weather Threats Expected
Very Common – Happens Often
Common – Happens Frequently
Uncommon – A Few Times a Year
Rare – Once Every 1-5 Years
Very Rare – Once Every 5-10 Years
*Threat levels are based on FEMA
Region 6 criteria. State or local
threat level criteria may differ.
Mon AM - Sat AM
• Dry conditions will continue
to be favorable for the
spreading of wildfires
through the weekend
• 4582 Acres
• 60% Contained
Click for latest Spot forecast
NWS Austin/San Antonio
Data valid as of 7am CDT, Tuesday October 13th, 2015
Change in
the last week
Drought Conditions (Percent Area) in D3-D4 (Extreme to Exceptional Drought)
State
Current
Last Week
3 Months Ago
1 Year Ago
Louisiana
50.56%
18.36%
0.00%
0.00%
Texas
13.89%
10.17%
0.00%
10.97%
Arkansas
10.40%
6.43%
0.00%
0.00%
Oklahoma
3.43%
1.46%
0.00%
20.87%
New Mexico
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
8.08%
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Geomagnetic
Storms
Active
(Max Kp = 4)
Unsettled
(Max Kp = 3)
Active
(Max Kp = 4)
Solar Radiation
Storm (S1-S5)
1%
1%
1%
Radio Blackout
(R1-R2)
55%
55%
55%
Radio Blackout
(R3-R5)
5%
5%
5%
Click here for a
Description of the Space
Weather Storm Scales
Click here for the Latest
3-Day Space Weather
Forecast Text
Information provided by:
National Weather Service
Southern Region Headquarters
Regional Operations Center
Fort Worth, TX
Phone:
E-mail:
Web:
(817) 978-1100 x147
[email protected]
http://www.srh.noaa.gov
https://www.facebook.com/NWSSouthern (NEW link!!)
@NWS_Southern_US https://twitter.com/NWS_Southern_US