2015 North American
Light Vehicle Aluminum
Content Study
Advancing Growth
Executive Summary
June 2014
Executive Summary
2015 Key Findings
In 2015:
• Pickup trucks will contain the most aluminum at 548.9 lbs. per vehicle, followed closely by E Segment
sedans at 546.9 lbs., SUVs at 410.3 lbs. and minivans at 396.5 lbs. All other segments will be below the
average content of 394 pounds per vehicle.
• Tesla, Mercedes, BMW and Ford will all exceed the average aluminum content and the average
aluminum share of curb weight.
• The F-150 will contain 1,080 pounds of aluminum. Aluminum sheet and extruded products for the
body and closures are over one half of this content.
• The total aluminum content for the 17.46 million vehicles of expected production will equal nearly 7
billion pounds. Body and closure parts will be 11% of the total.
• Total North American light vehicle aluminum consumption will increase by 28% in 2015 over 2012.
• Consumption will surpass all records set in previous decades by one billion pounds.
• Aluminum hood penetration will increase from 34% in 2012 to 48% in 2015.
• More than 500,000 pickup trucks and EV’s (a combined total) will have complete aluminum bodies,
and have a content of over 500 million pounds of aluminum.
2
Executive Summary
2025 Key Future Projections
Within the Decade:
• Seven out of 10 new pickup trucks produced in North American will be aluminum-bodied.
• Every leading automaker will have an aluminum body program in place.
• Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler will be the biggest users of aluminum sheet.
• Aluminum hood penetration will reach 85% and doors will reach 46%; complete bodies will reach
18%, from less than one percent today. This will drive total aluminum content to 547 pounds per
vehicle.
• The total North American aluminum content will be 10 billion pounds.
• Aluminum will comprise more than 75% of pickup truck body and closure parts, 24% of E Segment
body and closure parts, 22% of SUV body and closure parts and 18% of minivan body and closure
parts.
• Aluminum sheet for light vehicle body and closure parts will grow from less than 200 million pounds
in 2012 to nearly 4 billion pounds.
• On a volume basis, 26.6% of all the body and closure parts will be made of aluminum.
• The gross weight savings from aluminum body and closure use will be 175 pounds per vehicle.
• Globally, light vehicle aluminum content will approach 35 billion pounds, making light vehicles the
most important global market for aluminum.
3
Executive Summary
Aluminum content will break with the long term 40 year trend line in 2015 as aluminum penetration for
body parts, doors and closures (other than hoods) finally reaches the critical mass for an explosive period of
growth from 2015 to 2025.
450
Net Aluminum Pounds per Light Vehicle
394
400
350
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Net Pounds per Vehicle

Calendar Year
4
Executive Summary


Large content increases for body parts, closures and larger transmission cases will more than offset small
content losses for smaller engines and stiff competition from new steels for suspension control arms over
the period 2012 to 2015.
The net increase is expected to be a plus 44.3 pounds per vehicle from 2012 to 2015 compared to an
increase of only 10 pounds per vehicle from 2010 to 2012.
Component or System Changes for Aluminum Content in 2015 versus 2012
25
20
Net Gains in Pounds per Vehicle
22.3
15
10
5
0
Net Losses in Pounds per Vehicle
(3.9) lbs.
+48.2 lbs.
12.6
5.4
3
2
1.4
1.5
0
-0.5
Engines
Control Arms Other Losses
-0.3
& Links
-1.2
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.4
-2.5
-3
5
Executive Summary
Total North American light vehicle aluminum consumption will increase by 28% in 2015 over
2012.
–

The increase is an equal combination of more vehicles and more aluminum content per vehicle.
Consumption in 2015 will surpass any records set in previous decades by one billion pounds.
Aluminum Consumption for Light Vehicles
8000
6886
7000
6000
Millions of Pounds

5395
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2012
2015
6
Executive Summary

In 2015, the total aluminum content for the 17.46 million vehicles of expected production will equal
nearly 7 billion pounds.
–
–
Body and closure parts will be 11% of the total.
33% of the content will be for engine parts.
Component/System Share of Al
Consumption
Millions of Net Al Pounds by
Component/System
Body & Closures
Bumpers
2%
80
Suspension
11%
4%
143
Steering
2%
1%
777
12%
2%
12%
243
Brakes
16%
173
Wheels
9%
1083
Heat Transfer
10%
658
Transmission & Driveline
1325
Other Engine
629
Heads
812
Blocks
803
All other
161
0
500
1000
1500
19%
All other
Blocks
Heads
Other Engine
Transmission & Driveline
Heat Transfer
Wheels
Brakes
Steering
Suspension
Bumpers
Body & Closures
6.9 Billion Pounds
7
Executive Summary

Aluminum’s share of the 3,798-pound curb weight in 2015 is expected to be 10.4%.
–

This is compared to the 9% share of the 3,828-pound curb weight in 2012.
Tesla, Mercedes, BMW and Ford will exceed the average aluminum content and the average aluminum share
of curb weight for 2015 .
9.0%
8
Executive Summary

As aluminum content spreads across vehicle segments, the E Segment, SUV Segment and PUP Segment
emerge as content leaders.
2015 Vehicle Segment Average Aluminum Pounds and Share of 2015 Production
A/B Segment
Fiat 500
Ford Fiesta
C Segment
Ford Focus
Honda Civic
D Segment
Chevy Malibu
Dodge Charger
MUSTANG
E Segment
Cadillac XTS
STING RAY
251.6 lb.’s
3% of Production
273.9 lb.’s
17% of Production
363.3 lb.’s
21% of Production
546.9 lb.’s
2% of Production
MPV Segment
Honda Odyssey
Chrysler Town &
Country
396.5 lb.’s
SUV Segment
Chevy Suburban
Jeep Grand Cherokee
410.3 lb.’s
VAN Segment
Dodge Sprinter
Ford Transit
PUP Segment
Ford F150
Ram 1500
4% of Production
33% of Production
273.2 lb.’s
2% of Production
548.9 lb.’s
17% of Production
9
Executive Summary

The 2015 Ford F-150 is a test case for a high-volume aluminum vehicle, achieving ~ 700 lbs. of weight
savings over the current model.
Redesigned 2015 F-150
600 Pounds (Excludes 70 pounds of
extruded aluminum products)



The aluminum-bodied F-150 goes into production later this year.
This is the first high-volume aluminum-bodied vehicle to go into production in the world.
When the program reaches full production in 2016, Ford will be making 850,000 trucks per year
and require 350,000 tons of aluminum sheet per annum.
10
Executive Summary

The 2015 Ford F-150 will have over 1,000 pounds of net aluminum content, or approximately 25% of its
curb weight.
2015 F150 Crew Cab
Blocks
Heads
Other Engine
Transmission Cases
Other Transmission
Differential Carriers
Drive shafts & Yokes
Heat Exchangers
Heat Shields and Sinks
Wheels
Brakes
Steering
Closures
Body Sheet HT
Body Sheet NHT
Body Shapes
Body Tube
All other
Total
Lbs. / Vehicle
CY2015
2015 F-150 Crew Cab
Net Aluminum Content
71
66
3%
37
3%
Blocks
Heads
Other Engine
1%
Transmission Cases
7%
68
6%
9%
12
Other Transmission
Differential Carriers
3%
17
6%
7
1%
Drive shafts & Yokes
2%
Heat Exchangers
1%
Heat Shields and Sinks
32
10
72
3%
26%
7%
6
281
21%
1%
0%
37
9
1080
Brakes
Closures
Body Sheet HT
Body Sheet NHT
96
31
Wheels
Steering
5
223
1%
1,080 Pounds
25% of Curb Weight
Body Shapes
Body Tube
All other
11
Executive Summary
4500
NA Aluminum Sheet Demand
For Auto Body and Closure Parts
4000
3500
Millions of Pounds
 Aluminum sheet for light vehicle
body and closure parts will grow
from less than 200 million
pounds in 2012 to nearly 4
billion pounds by 2025.
 This growth of aluminum rolled
products for automotive
applications will require a
tremendous increase in heat
treating capacity.
 Ford, General Motors and Fiat
Chrysler will be the biggest
users of aluminum sheet
 Every leading automaker will
have several aluminum body
and closure panel programs by
2025.
 26.6% of all the body and
closure parts on a volume basis
will be made of aluminum in
2025.
 70% of the aluminum sheet will
need to be 6xxx heat treatable
sheet.
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
12
Executive Summary
The number of vehicles with aluminum closures and complete body structures will increase by significant
proportions over the next ten years.
90%
Aluminum Penetration for Closures
and Complete Bodies
85%
80%
Share of All Light Vehicles

73%
70%
60%
50%
40%
48%
46%
34%
33%
28%
27%
30%
30%
26%
24%
19%
20%
10%
18%
6%
7%
6%
9%
4%
4%
0%
Hoods
Fenders
Doors
2012
2015
Trunk/Gate
2020
Roof
Complete Bodies
2025
The chart does not include the numerous vehicles that will also have partial body structures, vacuum die cast shock towers and other VD cast body parts.
13
Executive Summary


The material mix for body and closure parts will change dramatically over the next ten years.
On a weight basis, aluminum will grow to 19% of the weight for body and closure parts by 2025.
3, 0%
2012
8, 1%
154, 15%
37, 4%
2015
1, 0%
Mild and HSLA
AHSS/UHSS
Aluminum Sheet
Mild and HSLA
AHSS/UHSS
201, 20%
Aluminum Sheet
Aluminum Extrusions
861, 84%
Aluminum Extrusions
751, 76%
Aluminum VD Castings
Aluminum VD Castings
993 lbs.
1023 lbs.
8, 1%
92, 10%
5, 1%
2020
13, 2%
Mild and HSLA
AHSS/UHSS
277, 29%
Aluminum Extrusions
Aluminum VD Castings
941 lbs.
2025
Mild and HSLA
144, 16%
AHSS/UHSS
366, 41%
Aluminum Sheet
559, 59%
8, 1%
Aluminum Sheet
Aluminum Extrusions
357, 40%
Aluminum VD Castings
888 lbs.
14
Executive Summary



A mild, HSLA and bake hard steel body structure with closures weighs on average 1,060 pounds.
This excludes bumpers and the 500-pound ladder frame for pickup trucks.
By 2025, the weight for the average body with closures will be 888 pounds.
–
New materials, including aluminum, will continue to save weight without sacrificing safety, size or
efficiency.
1200
Net Pounds for Body and Closures

This is based on a constant vehicle footprint of 49 square feet.
1000
800
Aluminum VD Castings
Aluminum Extrusions
600
Aluminum Sheet
AHSS/UHSS
Mild and HSLA
400
200
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
15
Executive Summary


By 2025, 26.6% of all the body and closure parts for light vehicles in North America will be made of
aluminum (measured by volume rather than weight).
A burst of aluminum activity is expected in the few years leading up to the 2025 EPA mandate of 161 grams
of CO2 per mile taking full effect.
Aluminum Volume Share of
Body and Closure Components
30%
25.6%
25%
26.6%
22.1%
19.0%
20%
20.2%
16.9%
13.7%
15%
9.3%
10%
10.7%
11.5%
6.6%
5%
1.4%
1.7%
2012
2013
3.2%
0%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
16
Executive Summary


Pickup trucks will demonstrate the highest penetration of aluminum parts for bodies and closures at more
than 75% by 2025.
If the fuel economy achieved with powertrain changes does not achieve projected levels, additional fuel
economy improvements can be achieved through additional aluminum based weight savings on C, D and SUV
segment vehicles. Other segments such as minivans and E segment cars are also candidates for additional
weight savings, but their volumes are too small to have a significant impact on CO2 emissions.
Aluminum Volume Share of Body and Closure Components by Vehicle Type
80%
75.9%
70%
59.3%
60%
50%
40%
30%
22.1%
22.0%
20%
11.5%
10%
0%
17.7%
10.8%
4.8%
4.0%
Pickup Trucks
SUV / CUV
2015
2020
Minivan
2025
17
Executive Summary


In the car segments, E Segment vehicles will show the highest aluminum penetration for body and closure
parts at nearly 24% by 2025.
Weight savings estimates remain conservative for C segment and D segment cars given they are the prime
candidates for hybrid and electric powertrains. Alternative powertrain assumptions will be severely
challenged by the high cost of hybrid, plug-in and all-electric technologies. A low-cost, low weight battery
solution is not yet on the horizon.
Aluminum Volume Share of Body and Closure Components by C, D & E Segment Cars
30%
23.9%
25%
20%
13.8%
15%
10%
5%
8.7%
7.8%
5.2%
4.7%
3.9%
2.5%
0.7%
0%
E Segment
D Segment
2015
2020
C Segment
2025
18
Executive Summary

Extensive use of aluminum, dual phase, complex phase and press hardened steels will be required to
remove 150-200 pounds out of the average auto body with closures by 2025. To remove more than 200
pounds it will require aluminum to be used for over 30% of the parts.
Light Vehicle Body and Closure Part Volume Share by Material
2012
1%
2015
6%
Mild and HSLA
18%
AHSS/UHSS
Aluminum Sheet
Mild and HSLA
AHSS/UHSS
23%
Aluminum Sheet
Aluminum Extrusions
Aluminum Extrusions
Aluminum VD Castings
71%
Aluminum VD Castings
81%
1%
1%
2020
2%
2025
Mild and HSLA
Mild and HSLA
15%
AHSS/UHSS
52%
31%
1%
23%
33%
AHSS/UHSS
Aluminum Sheet
Aluminum Sheet
Aluminum Extrusions
Aluminum Extrusions
Aluminum VD Castings
Aluminum VD Castings
41%
19
Executive Summary
As aluminum grows to 26% of the part volume for light vehicle bodies and closures, the total amount of
material needed in 2025 will decline by over 3 billion pounds per year over the need in 2012.
3,500
Gross Weight Savings for Body & Closure Parts
2012-2025
3,000
Millions of Pounds Saved

2,500
Cumulative Savings
of 175 pounds per vehicle
from 239 pounds
of Aluminum Additions
per vehicle
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Savings due to Aluminum Sheet
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Savings due to Aluminum Extrusions
Savings due to Aluminum VD Castings
Private and Confidential 20
Executive Summary
Fifty years of uninterrupted aluminum growth for North American manufactured light vehicles is
guaranteed. There is nothing on the horizon that would indicate that this burst in aluminum growth can be
significantly slowed over the next ten years.

600
Aluminum Net Pounds per North American Light Vehicle
547
Net Pounds per Vehicle
500
473
394
400
340
306
300
258
212
200
120
139
165
100
0
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Calendar Year
21
Executive Summary

Aluminum heat treated and non-heat treated sheet, extruded shapes and tube as well as vacuum assisted
high pressure die castings are the products that will benefit the most from the need to use more aluminum
to save weight and improve fuel economy by 90% by 2025.
All other product forms including conventional HPDC, permanent mold castings, brazing sheet, fin stock,
rod and bar and forgings will only increase by 27 pounds in total over the period 2012 to 2025.
Net Pounds per Vehicle for Select Product Forms
160
150
140
Net Pounds per Vehicle

120
2012
97
100
2015
2020
80
2025
60
42
40
20
35
19.1
13.4
42
24.6
1
0
Rolled Products
Extruded Produts
7
12
Vacuum Die Castings
This chart excludes rod and bar, fin stock, brazing sheet, forgings and all castings except VDC
22
Executive Summary
Light vehicles will be the most important global market for aluminum in the coming decade.
30 - 35 million tons if the world
follows NA
20
18
16
Millions of Tons

Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Use
History and Forecast
(includes scrap)
120 Million
Vehicles
18 Million Ton Base
20 Million Ton Upside
14.8
14
11.4
12
10
8
54 Million
Vehicles
6
4.9
4
57%
2
0
45%
8.7
Will be
closer to 50/50,
if sheet prompt
scrap is closed
loop recycled
55%
43%
1999
2012
Primary
2015
2020
2025
Secondary
23
This concludes our report. Thank you.
This presentation was prepared by Ducker Worldwide LLC. Opinions and estimates constitute
judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Any
interpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of the client.
Reproduction without the explicit consent of DuckerWorldwide LLC is strictly prohibited.
For 50 years, Ducker Worldwide has enabled clients to navigate and thrive in a dynamic, global marketplace.
Our unique and proven combination of custom market intelligence, critical thinking and strategic consulting
create valuable opportunities that deliver critical results.
For more information regarding our strategic services, expertise and to learn how Ducker Worldwide can help
you, please contact one of our team members at 248-644-0086 or visit our website at www.ducker.com
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