OPPORTUNITY
FIELD
GUIDE
Think about it this way: Your company, city or town
undoubtedly has an emergency preparedness plan for
dealing with natural disasters, pandemics, and even
school shootings.
But what about nuclear disaster?
The risk of a nuclear detonation, whether by accident
or design, is considered by many experts to be greater
today than at any other time in history. Yet even as
revelations about attempts to arm ISIS with nuclear
weapons come to light, and even as we hear about the
latest nearly catastrophic nuclear accident stemming
from human error, most of us remain blissfully unaware, unprepared, and disengaged.
N Square aims to change that. We want to ignite the
imagination of the world’s most creative minds and
engage them—you—in solving one of the world’s most
vexing challenges. Our goal, in short, is to innovate
our way toward what President Obama described
in his first term as “the peace and security of a world
without nuclear weapons.”
Nuclear risk is by definition “superwicked”—that is,
a jumble of many different types of problems, from
dilemmas to puzzles to conflicts, for which no central
authority is responsible (and those trying to solve
the problems are the ones causing them). But resolving these problems has never been more urgent.
There are nearly 16,000 nuclear weapons in the
world, and if you live near an urban area, one is likely
pointed at you; 1,800 remain on high alert, deployable
within 15 minutes of command. A nuclear bomb could
easily be launched by mistake (some already have
been), either by nations or by nefarious organizations.
But we know something about how to address wicked
problems. First, it is critical to get a top-view of
the whole problem space. Second, we have to break
the problem into tractable pieces, knowing that the
solution to each will help resolve the whole.
Innovators in technology, media, education, and
design know as much as anyone about dealing with
wicked problems. That’s why we need you. We need
your pioneering minds, your extensive networks, and
considerable resources to crack the code on challenges like nonproliferation, safety, and security. What
if companies creating wearable technologies figured
out how to combine them with high-definition satellite
imagery to help verify international nuclear agreements? What if data scientists helped reduce the
proliferation threat by identifying relevant patterns in
the millions of pieces of multimedia, multilingual data
generated every second of every day? Might game
designers build a commercially successful strategy
game that educates and empowers game-players
about the nuclear threat? And what if educators
inspired the next generation of leaders to see nuclear
threat as a compelling innovation challenge rather
than an intractable reality?
As we pass the 70th anniversary of the first use
of nuclear weapons in warfare, we call on influencers,
innovators, and culture-shapers to join us in making
the world safer from the prospect of nuclear catastrophe. The Cold War may be over, but today’s nuclear
security situation is more volatile than ever. When
it comes to nuclear weapons, Pandora’s box is already
open. But let’s not forget the rest of that myth: at
the bottom of the box lies hope. To hope, let’s add
creativity and determination to safeguard the future.
Erika Gregory, Director
N Square
YOU ARE A
CREATIVE
THINKER,
A PROBLEM
SOLVER, A
LEADER, AN
INNOVATOR
You’re committed to making the world a better place.
But it may just be that the biggest contribution you’ll ever
make relates to an issue most people never talk about.
Think about it this way: Your company, city or town undoubtedly has an emergency preparedness plan for dealing with
natural disasters, pandemics, and even school shootings.
But what about nuclear disaster?
The risk of a nuclear detonation, whether by accident or design, is considered by many experts to be greater today than
at any other time in history. Yet even as revelations about attempts to arm ISIS with nuclear weapons come to light, and
even as we hear about the latest nearly catastrophic nuclear
accident stemming from human error, most of us remain
blissfully unaware, unprepared, and disengaged.
N Square aims to change that. We want to ignite the
imagination of the world’s most creative minds and engage them—you—in solving one of the world’s most vexing
challenges. Our goal, in short, is to innovate our way toward
what President Obama described in his first term as “the
peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”
Nuclear risk is by definition “superwicked”—that is, a
jumble of many different types of problems, from dilemmas
to puzzles to conflicts, for which no central authority is
responsible (and those trying to solve the problems are the
ones causing them). But resolving these problems has never
been more urgent. There are nearly 16,000 nuclear weapons
in the world, and if you live near an urban area, one is likely
pointed at you; 1,800 remain on high alert, deployable within
15 minutes of command. A nuclear bomb could easily be
launched by mistake (some already have been), either by
nations or by nefarious organizations.
OPPORTUNITY
FIELD GUIDE
But we know something about how to address wicked
problems. First, it is critical to get a top-view of the whole
problem space. Second, we have to break the problem into
tractable pieces, knowing that the solution to each will help
resolve the whole.
Innovators in technology, media, education, and design know
as much as anyone about dealing with wicked problems.
That’s why we need you. We need your pioneering minds,
your extensive networks, and considerable resources to
crack the code on challenges like nonproliferation, safety,
and security. What if companies creating wearable technologies figured out how to combine them with high-definition
satellite imagery to help verify international nuclear agreements? What if data scientists helped reduce the proliferation threat by identifying relevant patterns in the millions
of pieces of multimedia, multilingual data generated every
second of every day? Might game designers build a commercially successful strategy game that educates and empowers
game-players about the nuclear threat? And what if educators inspired the next generation of leaders to see nuclear
threat as a compelling innovation challenge rather than an
intractable reality?
As we pass the 70th anniversary of the first use
of nuclear weapons in warfare, we call on influencers, innovators, and culture-shapers to join us in making the world
safer from the prospect of nuclear catastrophe. The Cold
War may be over, but today’s nuclear security situation is
more volatile than ever. When it comes to nuclear weapons,
Pandora’s box is already open. But let’s not forget the rest of
that myth: at the bottom of the box lies hope. To hope, let’s
add creativity and determination to safeguard the future.
Erika Gregory, Director
N Square
INTRO
DUCTION
Nuclear weapons are more than 70 years old and, to
many people, the conversation about them seems
outdated, uncool, a relic of a previous generation. The
perceived threat of nuclear weapons subsided 25 years
ago, when the end of the Cold War reduced the probability
of a nuclear exchange between the US and the USSR.
The notion that terrorists could wreak havoc with nuclear
bomb-making materials feels like a distant threat, and too
few are aware of the consequences of nuclear weapons
testing programs or the accidents that have occurred
here and abroad. Meanwhile, nonproliferation deals, such
as the recent one struck with Iran, are technical, political,
and hard for the general population to understand
Yet nuclear weapons threat is not just a bogeyman—
it’s a very real, very current existential challenge. The
chance of a nuclear catastrophe may be “low probability”
from an empirical perspective, but it is extremely high
consequence. Regional instability (e.g., India and
Pakistan), unpredictable state and nonstate actors (Kim
Jong-un, international terrorists), the challenges of
securing nuclear/radioactive materials, and the need to
better detect the theft and diversion of nuclear materials
and weapons are all issues that increase the likelihood of
detonation if they are not addressed and resolved. The
large amount of nuclear materials and weapons around
the world complicates our ability to contain these threats.
Challenge Opportunities
Nuclear professionals diligently address these challenges
daily in government, international organizations, nuclear
facilities, and companies. How might new thinking,
innovation, and multidisciplinary approaches lead to
breakthrough solutions? How might a broader population
positively contribute to “traditional” nuclear expertise?
Key opportunities include:
New radiation detection tools and approaches to detect
shielded nuclear materials and activities from a distance
“Black box” technologies to protect proprietary and
sovereign information
Unique funding mechanisms to help drive innovative
solutions to technical verification constraints
Modern tools and media mechanisms to train and
educate the next generation of experts as well as the
general public
New nuclear power approaches that are inherently safer,
proliferation resistant, and relatively waste-free
Unique ID tags embedded in nuclear weapons or nuclear
materials themselves, readable without revealing sensitive
information
Data analytics to help solve the dual-use problem,
tracking issues, verification challenges, and analysis
of intent
SUPER
WICKED
In 1972, UC Berkeley Professor Horst Rittl defined a
“wicked” problem as being one that is highly resistant to
resolution because it has these 10 key characteristics:
1. It has no definitive formulation.
Later, political scientists recognized four more factors that
make a problem “super wicked”*:
11. Time is running out.
12.There is no central authority responsible for solving
the problem.
2.The wicked problem is made up of a series of embed-
ded problems, each of which bleeds into the others.
3.Solutions to these problem can only be good or bad,
not true or false.
4.Teams working on wicked problems must literally
make things up as they go along.
5.The wicked problem has more than one explanation,
depending on perspective.
6.Each embedded problem is a symptom of another
problem.
7. There is no definitive scientific test to conduct.
8. Trial and error tests are difficult.
9. Every wicked problem is unique.
10.Those working on wicked problems have ethical
responsibility for the outcomes of their efforts.
*Levin, Kelly; Cashore, Benjamin; Bernstein, Steven; Auld, Graeme (23 May 2012).
“ Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems: constraining our future selves
to ameliorate global climate change.”Policy Sciences 45 (2): 123–152
13.Those seeking to solve the problems are also
causing them.
14.Current policies discount future irrationality.
So what do you do with a super wicked problem? It
matters much less where you begin than THAT you begin.
At N Square we’ve adapted the work of Dr. Jonathan
Rosenhead, Professor Emeritus at the London School of
Economics, whose research recommends getting multiple
perspectives, working iteratively, and facilitating a
representation of the whole problem space so diverse
groups can systematically explore solutions.
That’s where the Opportunity Guide comes in.
HOW TO
USE THIS
GUIDE
Two questions dominate conversations about this issue:
“Now that you’ve got my attention, what can I actually do?
Is there really any way to make a difference short of
getting world governments to change their policies?”
This Opportunity Guide is designed to meet you where you
are, providing natural access points and ways to apply your
particular expertise and resources.
To underscore that there are many pathways into the
superwicked challenge that is nuclear weapons threat, we
have organized this Guide into three different ways to
engage:
1
Section 1 identifies innovation opportunities related to the
sector in which you work.
2
Section 2 defines challenges related to specific functions
in the nuclear weapons field.
3
Section 3 offers themes about how seemingly disparate
ideas might collide to create new approaches to longstanding issues.
1
SECTORS
Magic Leap is is an augmented
reality startup with $800M in
venture funding. Headsets
project 3D images into the
user’s eye to create a digital
layer on top of reality.
BUSINESS
How might we inspire the
business sector to commit
resources—human, financial,
or technological—to address
nuclear security challenges?
How might we apply supply
chain innovations to manage,
track, and monitor nuclear
technology around the globe?
How might we leverage the
successes of cause marketing to
develop public awareness and
engagement?
How might we encourage
businesses to support global
security through employee social
impact programs?
Crowdsourcing, crowdfunding, venture capital, and angel
networks have changed the way businesses turn ideas
into solutions. Even established companies leverage
resources such as Kickstarter to raise funds and validate
interest in new ideas. In October 2015, the SEC released
new rules allowing the sale and purchase of securities
through crowdfunding—in essence, enabling Kickstarter
contributors to receive equity by supporting a campaign.
This shift promises to open up additional financing to
startups that are facing fierce funding competition.
The Whitehouse has made it a priority to reduce the
likelihood that terrorists could use radiological or nuclear
materials to disrupt the global supply chain, the economic
consequences of which would be catastrophic. Just as
critical is the goal to improve international capacity to
prevent the illicit transport of those dangerous materials.
In the private sector, Amazon.com manages a complex
supply chain of unprecedented size to meet and drive consumer demand. Same-day shipping (shipping within the
hour, even) requires a vast, tightly managed supply chain
built on many individual innovations.
Cause marketing creates partnerships between
for-profit and nonprofit organizations for mutual benefit.
Through this practice, organizations have bolstered sales
by supporting important causes. The practice elevates
not just consumer perceptions of a company but consumers’ self-perceptions as well.
Employee social benefit programs run the gamut from
donation opportunities to organized volunteer days and
pro-bono skills and interest-based projects. The 2012
Towers Watson Global Workforce Study found that, of
50 global companies surveyed, those with the best bottom
line results had “sustainable, holistic employee engagement programs.” Meanwhile, the 2011 Deloitte Volunteer
IMPACT Survey showed that working adults between
the ages of 21 and 35 with the highest career satisfaction
were those who were deeply engaged in workplace
volunteer activities.
In-Q-Tel
In-Q-tel is a nonprofit that supports the US intelligence
community by investing in venture-backed startups that
are developing innovative security technologies—from
analytics to field-deployable mobile technologies. Since its
inception in 1999, In-Q-Tel has expanded its investments
in support of nine government organizations.
The US Digital Service
The service brings private-sector practices to government
organizations to help drive innovation. Led and staffed by
some of the brightest minds in technology and business in
the US, the organization is remaking the digital systems
by which government operates and bringing the kind of
efficiency, agility, and effectiveness that define Silicon
Valley’s biggest successes.
Kiva Systems
Now a subsidiary of Amazon called Amazon Robotics, Kiva
is a supply chain system of autonomous robots that select,
ship, and manage warehouse inventory. The system is
used by Gap, Staples, and other corporations to increase
the efficiency and accuracy of their inventory management.
Staples’ Smart-Size Packaging
In 2012, Staples started making boxes on demand for
the exact size needed for each order. The system reduces
the amount of cardboard and filler used to ship products
and lowers the cost of shipping by allowing for more products to ship at once.
Shock Top
Shock Top is a Belgian-style beer made by Anheuser-Busch. In 2015, Shock Top created its Shock the Drought
campaign to support California’s drought efforts. Partnering with crowdfunding platform Indiegogo, Shock Top
sponsored innovators developing products to reduce water
consumption, including Drop-A-Brick 2.0, an updated take
on placing bricks in toilet water tanks to reduce water use.
Product (Red)
Product (Red), founded by Bono and Bobby Shriver,
created an innovative business model for raising awareness and funds to fight HIV/AIDS. Starbucks, Nike, and
Apple are among the companies that have licensed the
Product (Red) brand and logo to place on their products,
donating 50 percent of the profits to The Global Fund. In
10 years, they have raised more than $140 million.
Earthwatch
Royal Dutch/Shell employee volunteers work on Earthwatch’s global research and conservation projects for up
to two weeks at a time. Programs like a study of climate
change at the edge of the Arctic provide personal and
corporate benefits.
20% Doctrine
In The 20% Doctrine: How Tinkering, Goofing Off, and
Breaking the Rules at Work Drive Success in Business,
“Gawker tech-blogger and journalist Ryan Tate reveals
ow businesses can inspire greater creativity and productivity by allowing their employees to pursue their own
passions at work.”
TECHNOLOGY
How might we provide opportunities
for nuclear professionals to
engage with a larger community
of innovators?
How might we apply big data
analytics to nuclear disarmament,
nonproliferation, and security
efforts?
How might we use virtual or
augmented reality technologies
to help change the way people
feel about nuclear weapons and
the threats they pose?
The nuclear field is full of talented and committed professionals, many of whom have dedicated their lives to
the prevention of nuclear war. But they are challenged in
efforts to innovate by a highly competitive funding environment and shifting political priorities. On the other hand,
potential creative partners face stiff barriers to entry: The
issues are highly complex, nuclear security experts and
activists have their own tribal languages, and there are
few mechanisms to support cross-sector collaboration.
The challenge of big data is generating intelligent insights
from data that is not easily recognized or understood. The
problem isn’t so much “big data” as it is useful intelligence. Businesses that can reliably extract unique insights from big data have significant advantage—and may
even find themselves disrupting other industries.
Virtual reality that feels less virtual and more real is finally
here—and its applications continue to expand, promising
opportunities to educate, learn, play, and explore our
world in ways we never imagined.
Hero-X
Launched by XPRIZE in 2013, HeroX is a platform that
allows any individual or organization to create a prize and
source innovation for any opportunity; it also functions as
a crowdfunding platform to source prize funds. HeroX is
enabling focused efforts on wicked problems of all scales,
and opening the doors to communities and industries that
didn’t have this access before.
IAEA’s Program of Action for Cancer Therapy
Launched in 2004, the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) Program of Action for Cancer Therapy aims
to raise awareness of cancer as a global health problem,
create partnerships to coordinate solutions, and supply
equipment and training to low- and middle-income
countries. The program embraces nuclear medicine,
one of myriad practical uses and applications of nuclear
technology. The IAEA is helping to provide developing
countries with nuclear technologies to help overcome
barriers to health, nutrition, and energy.
In terms of nuclear security, data science has a critical
role to play. Data visualization technologies are being
used to verify adherence to multilateral nuclear weapons
agreements—from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban
Treaty (CTBT) to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT) and the new accord with Iran.
Netflix
Netflix has harnessed the power of big data to innovate
entertainment and blur the lines between film and TV. By
breaking its catalog down into 77,000 “altgenres,” the
company was able to predict user interest. Netflix used
the data from these altgenres to predict the success of
“House of Cards” and sign a deal for the series even before
it was cast. In the past two years, Netflix has developed
nearly 90 new series, shows, and films.
Google Flu Trends
Google Flu Trends was a big data solution developed to
more accurately identify the spread of the flu by identifying
the frequency with which people searched for flu-related
terms around the world. However, Google Flu Trends ultimately failed by overestimating the prevalence of flu. The
lesson: big data requires context, not just data.
Augmented reality (in which digital information is combined with live experience) has the potential to immerse
people in the destructive potential of nuclear weapons
without doing real harm. Both VR and augmented reality
have potential to be powerful simulation and training tools.
Oculus Rift
Oculus Rift is a virtual reality company owned by Facebook
that makes VR headsets. The company’s products have
been said to provide the best consumer virtual reality
experience available.
Magic Leap
Magic Leap is an augmented-reality startup that
projects digital images from a headset into a user’s
eyes. This gives users an experience of their immediate
surroundings enhanced by the content layered in by
the device. Magic Leap has raised nearly $1 billion
in venture capital and is currently raising additional
funds. While the company has not released a product to
market, augmented-reality technology has promising
application in entertainment, gaming, healthcare, education, and more.
EDUCATION
MEDIA
How might we help educators
make nuclear safety and
security relatable to students
and young adults?
How might we equip a new
generation of nuclear professionals
to use creative techniques—from
multidisciplinary collaboration to
human-centered design?
How might we leverage the
popularity of gaming to inform
and educate broad audiences
about nuclear threat?
How might we create a brand
that engages the public in nuclear
security?
Nuclear safety and security issues are bogged down in
technical and bureaucratic jargon, making it challenging
to inspire interest in new audiences. What if we could find
relatable real-life analogies and novel approaches to help
us better inform the broader public?
Nuclear issues can feel like “old news,” making it difficult
to inspire widespread engagement. With a diminished
focus on nuclear threats and a shrinking reliance on nuclear weapons comes a reduction of nuclear professionals
equipped to tackle nuclear safety, security, and disarmament. But what if new ideas and new thinking could infuse
the nuclear establishment?
Roughly 60 percent of Americans play video games
on a regular basis, and nearly 30 percent of these gamers
are under the age of 18. Thanks to the realistic graphics
that today’s platforms enable, many games have begun
to include true-to-life stories or plot elements. A growing
community of developers focuses on building games
that provide social benefit or solve real-world problems.
At the same time, school districts across America are
experimenting with the use of educational games in both
formal and informal learning environments.
Consumers are savvier than ever and traditional forms
and styles of marketing are less effective than in the past.
Brands must now focus on making authentic connections
and co-creating experiences with customers. In addition,
the mobile, connected world is an inescapable virtual billboard, inundating users with ads during every interaction.
Given these new realities, engaging users and holding
their attention requires a new mindset as well as a new
set of tools. What could this mean for rebranding “nuclear
security”, which is currently peceived by many as stodgy,
unhip, even unimportant?
Tinybop
Tinybop creates award-winning educational apps for kids.
They have released apps on the human body, Earth, and
simple machines (among others) that encourage children
to learn through exploration—in other words, by examining questions rather than seeking a list of answers.
Google Expeditions
Pioneer Program
The Google Expeditions Pioneer Program is a virtual reality-based learning experience that takes kids deep into
the ocean and to the top of Machu PIcchu. The program
supports teachers in bringing lessons to life and engaging
students in virtual field trips.
Singularity University
Singularity is a benefit corporation that provides educational programs, innovative partnerships, and a startup
accelerator to help individuals, businesses, institutions,
investors, NGOs, and governments understand cutting-edge technologies and how to utilize these technologies to positively impact billions of people.
ResearchGate
The mission of ResearchGate is to make sharing knowledge and expertise easier among scientists around
the world to advance their work. ResearchGate acts as a
social network that fosters interdisciplinary research.
Metal Gear Solid V
Metal Gear Solid V challenges gamers to undertake
nuclear disarmament with all of its complexity in a grand
community event. Players work together to disarm the
entire multiplayer world from all nuclear devices. This
sacrifices the game’s best weapons, so it is hard to ensure
every player in the game will relinquish them—much like
the challenges of real-life disarmament. The goal is
to get the number of weapons on each regional server
to zero, either by convincing players to voluntarily scrap
theirs or by sneaking into rival bases and destroying the
weapons held by others.
Tiltify
Tiltify connects gamers to social causes by provided a
platform for raising money through online streams.
Partnering with organizations like the American Red
Cross, Tiltify helps drive interest in gamers’ streams,
raise awareness of social issues, and raise funds for
critical causes.effectiveness that define Silicon Valley’s
biggest successes.
The Most Interesting Man in the World
To stem the tide of Dos Equis consumers who were
switching from beer to cocktails, the company introduced
a new brand persona: The Most Interesting Man in the
World. He identifies with the audience by saying “I don’t
always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.” The
ad campaign has been a huge success for a company that
previously wasn’t seen as a major brand in the crowded
beer market.
Challenger branding
The strongest brands in the world employ techniques and
principles that set them apart. (Think Ben and Jerry’s
or Tesla). Adam Morgan refers to these as “challenger
brands” in his book Eating the Big Fish. Applying these
branding principles directly to a social issue might give us
new ideas about how it is marketed. It could also create
a new standard for raising public awareness and involvement in social issues. Charles Schwab applied these
principles to its successful rebranding campaign “Own
Your Tomorrow.”
MEDIA
ARTS/CULTURE
(CONTINUED)
How might social media leaders
activate the public about nuclear
weapons security, nonproliferation,
and/or disarmament?
How might we harness the
extensive archives of media
outlets to enhance nuclear
security innovation?
How might we connect nuclear
risk to issues people already
identify with?
How might we connect audiences
to nuclear security through
stories that realistically portray
the current threat?
Social media is embedded in the cultures of billions of
people around the world. Even in unlikely places like the
Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya, Facebook is an important
part of everyday life. Social media can be a powerful platform for galvanizing communities to take action, as was
seen in the Arab Spring when Twitter was used to mobilize
and organize protests.
We live in a world of such rapid innovation that it is
tempting to think of disruptive technologies and opportunities as abundant resources. The reality is that innovation
requires research, particularly when it involves novel
applications of technology across sectors. This research
takes time—a fact often at odds with the pace of innovation that organizations expect and require of their teams.
Nuclear security as an issue is not directly relatable to the
general public. It’s highly technical and often bogged down
in bureaucratic jargon. But today we have more channels
than ever through which to engage new audiences.
The I Am A Witness Campaign
The I Am A Witness Campaign was launched by the Ad
Council to combat cyber bullying online. The “eye in a
speech bubble” emoji is including in the standard apple
iOS keyboard and allows the “silent majority” who witness
cyberbullying online to post the emoji when they see
bullying online.
WIRED and Fast Company magazines
With their focus on innovation, entrepreneurs, and disruptive technology, WIRED and Fast Company magazines
have been critical players and leaders at the intersection
of business, technology, media, arts, and culture for more
than 20 years. Their extensive collective archives hold a
history of technological development, success, failure, and
innovation across sectors. These archives could be mined
for opportunities to apply innovations to new sectors,
understand best practices and failures, and ignite new
connections to support nuclear security innovation.
The connections between the existential threats of climate
change, poverty and nuclear weapons are incontrovertible.
Jonathan Schell said it best: “Anyone concerned by the
one (climate change) should be concerned with the other
(nuclear weapons). It would be a shame to save the Earth
from slowly warming only to burn it up in an instant in a
nuclear war.” But other issues that dominate debate also
have ties to nuclear weapons—gun control, for example.
The Girl Effect
The Girl Effect, which empowers adolescent girls all
over the world, began as a social media campaign jointly
funded by the NIKE Foundation and NoVo Foundation.
In 2008, the campaign simulatenously launched across
mutiple social media channels: the Girl Effect website,
the Girl Effect YouTube channel, the viral Girl Effect video,
the Girl Effect Facebook page and the Girl EffectFund
on globalgiving.com. The campaign now includes
new media brands and guides to social media strategy.
Climate + nuclear
Thanks to devastating super-storms like Hurricane
Katrina and Hurricane Sandy and increased weather
“weirding” around the world, climate chaos is now part of
everyday conversation in the US and elsewhere. Indeed,
climate change has become the predominant issue
of our time, but its relationship to nuclear threat is
not well understood. As the global climate becomes
increasingly unstable, conflicts over resources (among
other things) will increase. Small conflicts caused by
climate change are more likely to destabilize entire
regions; the current Syrian civil war and refugee crisis is
one example. This destabilization increases the likelihood
that nuclear weapons will be used, either on purpose
or by accident, by state actors or terrorists. How might
we more clearly communicate the link between climate
change and the nuclear threat?
Gun Violence
Domestically, mass shootings have spurred an increasingly volatile gun control debate about gun control in
American politics, media, and culture. Are an individual’s
at right to bear arms and a nation’s right to maintain
nuclear weapons are two ends of a single spectrum—and
might we engage gun control advocates in nuclear threat
reduction as well?
The lines between film, television, social media and
gaming are blurring, leading to creative new opportunities
to educate—and activate—the public about nuclear
weapons threat. But all too often nuclear weapons are
portrayed either as the “last best hope” or the ultimate
expression of power.
Manhattan
Lions Gate Entertainment and WGN have bucked that
trend with the TV series Manhattan, which accurately
depicts the moral and philosophical dimensions of
building and using nuclear weapons. How might entertainment industry leaders ensure the public has an accurate
understanding of the dynamics of nuclear risk? And
in what new ways can compelling and accurate nuclear
stories propagate in a multi-channel environment?
Planetary Responsiblity
Australian artist Lynette Wallworth has partnered with
VR developer Jaunt to tell the story of an aboriginal
community’s experience of a British nuclear test. She
creates a meditation on man’s relationship to the natural
environment and the atrocities wrought by nuclear
weapons as she immerses the viewer in the rhythm and
aesthetic of the Australian outback.
Science and Entertainment Exchange
The Science and Entertainment Exchange is a program
of the National Academy of Sciences that connects
entertainment industry professionals with top scientists
and engineers to accurately portray science and create
engaging storylines in both film and TV programming.
2
FUNCTIONS
Transatomic has revived an old
patent to develop an advanced
molten salt reactor that generates
proliferation-resistant, clean
nuclear power.
COMMUNICATE
EDUCATE
INNOVATE
NEGOTIATE
General definition: To give or exchange thoughts,
feelings, and information through writing, peaking, etc.
General definition: To teach someone, especially in a
school, college, or university; give someone information
about something; train someone to do something; enrich
someone’s knowledge on a topic.
General definition: To take changes in something
established, especially by introducing new methods,
ideas, or products.
General definition: To try to reach an agreement or
compromise by discussion with other; find a way over or
through an obstacle or difficult path.
In this context: To inspire and enhance the development
of breakthrough solutions through new methods.
In this context: Use diplomacy to control nuclear proliferation and disarmament; use diplomacy to create a shared
understanding of nuclear safety and security standards.
In this context: To convey the complexity of the
problem in an understandable way.
Nuclear issues are bogged down in highly technical and
bureaucratic jargon, making it difficult for people to relate.
Many of these issues are highly technical, somewhat
unchanging, and wrapped up in diplomatic and military
intricacies, making it hard to engage and inspire a broader
population of experts and concerned citizens. Meanwhile,
Cold War fears, and nuclear disasters such as Chernobyl
and even Fukushima, seem far in the past.
How might we create relatable metaphors for the public
to better understand the nuclear threat?
How might we introduce nuclear themes into arts and
media to educate the public and inspire engagement?
How might we utilize cause marketing or business
branding strategies to convey new messages and engage
the public?
In this context: To accurately inform the thoughts, beliefs
and actions of the public in regard to nuclear weapons.
The nuclear field is not attracting as much talent as it did
during the Cold War. WIth a diminishing focus on nuclear
threats and a shrinking reliance on nuclear weapons
(and potentially on nuclear energy, though that comes
in waves) comes a reduction of nuclear professioanls
equipped to tackle nuclear safety, security, and disarmament.
How might we train the next generation of nuclear professionals so that they are equipped for modern realities in
the nuclear field?
How might we leverage advances in education and technology to engage young people’s interest in these issues?
Highly talented and dedicated individuals address nuclear
challenges daily, but that community may be dwindling
and constrained by shrinking government budgets. Their
efforts provide adequate maintenance of the nuclear issue,
but not necessarily big innovation in the field.
How might we imagine new mechanisms to monitor
and secure nuclear activities?
How might we develop new nuclear technology that is
safer, more secure, and proliferation resistant?
How might we fund and inspire startups in nuclear
security technology?
Nuclear negotiations are fraught with self-interest,
posturing, security perceptions, distrust, and the inability
to verify commitments and assess intentions. Analogous
challenges include business licensing, mergers and
acquisitions, and music sharing services.
How might we create urgency to finding negotiated solutions to nuclear risks?
How might we think about and create new sticks and
carrots in nuclear negotiations?
How might we build confidence in nuclear security and
nuclear disarmament treaties and agreements?
MONITOR
VERIFY
DETECT
PREVENT
General definition: To observe and check progress or
quality over a period of time; keep under systematic
review. I
General definition: To ensure or demonstrate that
something is true, accurate, or justified.
General definition: To discover or identify the presence
or existence of; discern something intangible or barely
perceptible.
General definition: To keep something from happening
or arising.
In this context: To watch, account, inventory, and track
nuclear materials, facilities, and weapons to ensure their
security and safety and verify compliance with agreements; declare and verify numbers of weapons, warheads,
or quantities of materials.
Monitoring nuclear materials and activities requires
real-time awareness, the ability to synthesize and triage
large amounts of monitoring data, and good change
detection mechanisms that mitigate problem of false positives. It is difficult to get accurate measurements if approaches are not invasive enough (issue of privacy); radioactive materials are used in several industries and could
pose safety/security risk if lost or stolen; challenging to
properly synthesize large amounts of nuclear related data
(to include materials accountancy and nuclear facility surveillance). Analogous challenges include identity authentication and passwords; supply chain management; quality
control standards in business, technology and education;
and shipment tracking.
How might we imagine new mechanisms to establish
real-time and remote monitoring?
In this context: To check the veracity of declarations;
establish tools and procedures to build confidence
among parties that the terms of an agreement are being
implemented fairly and effectively; includes accounting,
controlling, detecting, measuring, monitoring, checking,
and inspecting.
Without strong verification mechanisms, we cannot
have nuclear disarmament or very tight nuclear security.
Verification can enhance trust and confidence. But
verification is complicated by the dual-use nature of
nuclear technology and the difficulty of assessing intent.
Technical challenges include the detection and distinction
of special nuclear material from a distance or behind
shielding and the potential challenge of data overload
in robust verification mechanisms and analysis.
Analogous challenges include identity and authentication,
QA/QC code for deployment, privacy protection, intellectual property protections, insurance claims, background
checks, law enforcement investigations, standardized
testing for students and teachers, fact checking,
and investigative journalism.
In this context: To identify the diversion, theft, or misuse
of nuclear materials or weapons; receive warning or an
alert that there is cheating on an agreement.
Detection challenges include the difficulty of detecting
nuclear materials at a distance or through shielding and
ensuring that alerts are not false positives. Analogous
challenges include artificial intelligence systems, fraud
detection, security alarms, and audit functions.
How might we maintain real-time awareness of nuclear
materials or weapons movements?
How might we detect nuclear materials from a distance
or when those materials are behind shielding?
What if we could develop appropriate data analytic tools to
enhance the ability to detect nefarious nuclear activity?
In this context: To deny access to nuclear technology
or know-how in order to prevent acquisition of a nuclear weapons program; limit the spread of and access to
nuclear materials, equipment and know-how, e.g., export
controls and physical security protocols; avoid accidents.
The globalization of technology and technical know-how
makes it much more difficult to prevent the spread of
nuclear weapons. Nuclear power generation and nuclear
waste have inherent risks, but standardized safety and
security protocols and practices are designed to prevent accidents and theft. Newer nuclear power reactor
designs are safer than other historical designs. Analogous
challenges include firewalls, encryption, and content
restrictions; identity and access restrictions, risk management, and audit functions; QA/QC and OSHA standards;
anti-drug campaigns such as red ribbon week in schools
or Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD), and Ad Council
PSAs like Smokey Bear/Pixar’s Planes for forest fires;
self-regulation in business, physical security mechanisms
such as walls, gates, and locks, and admission processes
in schools.
How might we imagine new mechanisms to establish
real-time and remote monitoring of nuclear materials,
facilities, and weapons?
How might we rethink nuclear controls in a world of
ever-broadening access to technology, designs, and
know-how?
What if we could provide transparency without revealing
sensitive or proprietary information?
How might we increase the accuracy of accounting and
monitoring mechanisms to reduce the number of false
positives?
How might we imagine new security mechanisms to
prevent theft or diversion of nuclear materials, facilities,
and weapons?
How might we develop new technology/techniques to
find lost, stolen, or diverted nuclear materials?
How might we detect materials through shielding and
from a distance?
How might we foster better understanding of nuclear
capabilities and threats?
How might we increase the accuracy of accounting and
monitoring to reduce false positives?
How might we imagine nuclear power and nuclear applications that minimize the risk of accidents and hazards?
DETER
DISARM
SECURE
General definition: To prevent the occurrence of; discourage someone from doing something, typically by instilling
doubt or fear of the consequences.
General definition: To allay the hostility or suspicions of;
take a weapon or weapons away from a person, force, or
country.
General definition: Fix or attach something firmly so
that it cannot be moved or lost.
In this context: To dissuade the pursuit of a nuclear
weapons program; deter the use of a nuclear weapon due
to the threat of nuclear retaliation.
In this context: To Reduce the reliance on and number
of weapons in an arsenal; dismantle and eliminate
weapons; take apart the infrastructure of a nuclear
weapons program; make dismantlement irreversible
(destroy weapons, make materials unusable).
Countries that perceive insuperable threats or an
inordinate need for prestige are difficult to dissuade from
pursuing a nuclear weapon option. Nuclear weapon
deterrence approaches are firmly embedded in national
security perceptions. Analogous challenges include
crime prevention and anti-drug campaigns, as well as
the arguments both for and against gun control.
How might we reimagine thinking and perceptions about
nuclear deterrence?
How might we use the real risks of nuclear weapons
and materials to disincentivize the acquisition or maintenance of nuclear weapons?
How might we create significant security assurances
to preclude the need for nuclear weapons?
How might we create an environment of peace so that
countries do not pursue nuclear weapons?
Nuclear disarmament is difficult to achieve due to
a number of factors, including world politics, the perceived security benefits of nuclear weapons, and lack
of confidence or trust in other countries. Disarmament
verification is difficult because of sensitivities about
sovereignty and state secrets, raising the tension between
transparency and privacy. Analogous challenges include
privacy protection and privacy controls, insurance,
and the proposal for Habitat for Humanity to help Detroit
dismantle old homes to create green spaces.
How might we influence thinking about the reliance on
nuclear weapons for national security?
How might we reliably verify that weapons are actually
being dismantled?
How might we find creative ways to make bomb-grade
nuclear materials forever unusable?
How might we provide transparency about nuclear weapons without revealing sensitive or proprietary information?
How might we make disarmament irreversible?
In this context: Contain materials, facilities, and/or
weapons to prevent theft, diversion, or other loss; prevent
further harm in the midst of an incident or accident
through containment mechanisms that prevent the spread
of accident, post-accident cleanup, and/or or practices
that prevent the theft or escape of weapons and materials.
Security standards vary by country or technology owner;
unstable nation-state regimes increase nuclear security
challenges; and radioactive contamination or accidents
damage property, destroy lives, and create widespread
panic. Analogous challenges include encryption, authentication, content restriction, energy and chemical industry
containment of byproducts and toxins, oil-spill cleanup,
risk management, crisis management, metal detectors,
and safe zones and healthcare quarantines.
How might we create better security systems for radioactive materials?
How might we prevent weapons theft in unstable countries?
How might we maintain nuclear weapons securely until
they are no longer “needed” for global security?
How might we persuade nations to maintain high safety
standard for their weapons?
How might we create new approaches and technologies
to clean up and prevent nuclear accidents?
How might we react swiftly to an instance of nuclear theft
to contain the threat before detonation?
How might we provide better, more secure containment
for nuclear materials?
3
THEMES
Rio de Janeiro/IBM Smarter City
project In preparation for the
2016 Olympics, Rio turned to IBM
to create a “Smarter City” by
integrating more than 30 agencies
into one centralized command
center so security officials and
crisis managers can monitor and
respond to problems quickly.
Superior
Sensemaking
21st Century
Learning
Mirroring the
Private Sector
What’s Old
is New Again
The Human Genome Project set a precedent within the
scientific community when it decided in 1996 to publish
raw data as the project progressed. While certainly not the
first big data collaboration, it did occur at an inflection
point. Fast forward 20 years, and the human genome can
now be sequenced within days. With distributed computing, entire fields of research can now leverage the
computing power and donated time of individuals to comb
through big data—such as space images to identify new
stars.
Technology-enhanced education goes far beyond online
learning platforms, stretching into new forms of learning,
new models of curriculum, and entirely new schools
with technology at their core. Some schools now use
technologies powered by predictive analytics that enable
students to learn at their own pace and in their own way.
Others have redesigned how students can demonstrate
mastery of content without relying on high-stakes testing.
In the past, government funding and development drove
technological innovation (e.g., the Manhattan Project, the
Apollo missions, computer and internet development by
the Department of Defense). Today, there is a trend of
bringing private-sector innovation and funding to the
public sector. The private sector is playing an increasingly
prominent role in US scientific development, both for
private and for public good. Some fear that this practice
leaves key development as well as policy issues in the
hands of a wealthy few. Nuclear security has traditionally
been in the hands of government. Is there room for private
interests to lend a hand?
Making what is old new again is a cultural “in” right now.
At a deeper level, technology and innovation are paradoxically helping restore traditional practices. For example,
the rise of crowdfunding platforms has brought us back to
the pre-banking days of lending to friends and family. It’s
done this on a global scale not possible before the internet.
How else is this theme playing out?
IBM and Rio de Janeiro
IBM’s Smarter Cities team partnered with Rio de Janeiro
to apply big data systems and analytics to the wicked
problems of urban planning. The system integrates
multiple data sources such as traffic, weather, and public
transportation across 30 agencies. With this integration,
the IBM systems collect data and look for trends and
patterns to identify problems and reveal opportunities for
improvement.
Palantir Technologies, Inc.
Palantir Technologies Inc. specializes in data analysis with
data fusion platforms and analytic applications. It is
presently promoting privacy protective capabilities that
allow institutions to get value out of data while protecting
privacy from misuse. Founded in 2004 as an In-Q-Tel
startup, Palantir’s original clients were US government
agencies. The company is also funded by Peter Thiel and
Founders Fund.
And as the population ages, access to lifelong learning—
anywhere, anytime, on any subject—is considered as
much a right as a privilege.
Badges
Digital “badges” are a means to validate what students
are learning both in school and in informal learning
environments such as libraries, museums, and internships. Much like the Girl Scout badges of our youth, these
certifications make students’ mastery of a topic or a skill
visible. Students can customize the types of badges they
want to earn, allowing them to put together a portfolio of
knowledge and skills with value to targeted colleges and
employers. Could there be a “nuclear threat” content
module and badge for middle and high school students?
or for elders?
Khan Academy
The Khan Academy is an extremely successful and
well-funded online platform that seeks to make it possible
for anyone, anywhere, to learn anything, for free—forever—
through a series of straightforward video tutorials on
virtually any subject imaginable. Khan Academy now has
an innovative partnership with Bank of America to create a
financial literacy platform aimed at millennials, suggesting possibilities for a similar project on nuclear literacy.
DIUX
A pet project of Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, the
DIUX is situated within a few miles of the Googleplex in
Mountain View, CA. Its mission is to identify and incubate
breakthrough technologies. By acting as a nexus between
the defense, technology and academic communities, and
by placing the experiment at the very heart of Silicon
Valley innovation culture, DIUX promises a whole new
approach to public-private collaboration.
Technology for Global Security
Established in May 2015, T4GS is a nonprofit, nonpartisan
network dedicated to building platforms and partnerships
to bring game-changing technology applications to global
security. T4GS acts as an initiator and facilitator, working
to design flexible frameworks and engage cutting-edge
technologists and concerned private-sector professionals
in addressing the world’s most challenging security
problems.
From Hippy to Hipster
It’s been 70 years since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Baby
boomers are now approaching their 70s as well; the
political activists and former hippies behind the anti-nuke
demonstrations of the late 20th century are aging right
alongside the nuclear weapons they once railed against.
Yet while Baby Boomers redefine their “golden years” as a
time to thrive and be active, the anti-nuke movement
hasn’t aged quite so well. But could Baby Boomers be
re-engaged—possibly around the notion that it’s time for
the weapons to retire, not the activists.
Meanwhile, what’s retro is what’s current. Today’s hipster
stereotype is all about the old as new: plaid shirts, beards,
typewriters. Could nuclear disarmament became the new
hipster movement?
The Privacy
Paradox
Simmering
Threats
In today’s world, privacy is a paradox. We live in an
increasingly connected world where we share the food we
eat, the places we visit, and tag ourselves and our friends
in every image we take. Yet with all the connections we
share, and perhaps because of them, privacy remains of
paramount importance. Privacy debates and concerns go
beyond identity theft and fraud. Camera phones, video,
drones, and all the technologies that make it possible to
explore and share our experience create opportunities for
our privacy to be violated.
San Francisco is the hub of technology and innovation for
the planet. Yet it’s also one of the largest simmering
earthquake zones. Climate change is in the media every
day, but other threats such as earthquakes and potential
volcanic eruptions (like the still active Cascade Range) are
less discussed. Other global threats, such as political
destabilization and epidemics like Ebola, also loom. Yet it
is hard to elevate discussion and action on these threats
when others appear to be more pressing in the moment.
This is certainly an issue with the current state of
awareness of and engagement with nuclear safety and
security issues the world over.
Office of Personnel Management breach
In 2015, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM)
breach raised the privacy debate from individual
consumer credit fraud to nation-state hacking and
cybercrime. A data breach released the private information of an estimated 18 million federal employees (former
and current), exposing the US government and its
intelligence to the world. What nearly every data breach
to date has shown is that while inadequate systems are
surely at fault, the immediate reason for these breaches
is the existence of increasingly complex and connected
networks across multiple platforms, technologies,
vendors, contractors, and other individuals with access
to systems.
Ebola
Like the nuclear threat, ebola never truly goes away. In
2014, a new ebola epidemic devastated local populations
and caused a global panic—and new cases continue to
pop up today. Nuclear safety and security are similar
dilemmas, in that they are capable of descending, quickly
and devastatingly, into crisis.
A good example of many hands making
light work, this guide is the product of
many people’s contributions.
First we must thank Bryan Lee of the
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation
Studies at the Middlebury Institute for
International Studies at Monterey for his
early leadership of this effort. He worked
closely with design experts Arnold Wasserman and Clark Kellogg, whose instincts
directly influenced the direction of the
project, and with nuclear security experts
Barry Blechman and Alex Bollfrass from
the Stimson Center.
Thanks to Paul Carroll of the Ploughshares
Fund who provided ongoing technical
advice and made sure we got the facts
straight, and to Morgan Matthews who
put her Sustainable Management MBA to
work while also providing the invaluable
“Millennial’s perspective.”
Thanks to Emma Belcher, Bruce Lowry,
Carl Robichaud and Philip Yun for their
steady support and expert guidance, to our
editor Jenny Johnston and the wizards at
studio1500 design.
But our warmest appreciation is reserved
for Lisa Owens Davis (former Intelligence
Program Director at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and an expert
in WMD proliferation) and Ennis Olson
(entrepreneur, MBA, and financial services
professional) who doggedly researched
every aspect of this Guide and illustrated
exactly what we mean about the value of
cross-disciplinary collaboration.
WHAT’S NEXT?
JOIN THE
JOIN
THE
NETWORK
NETWORK
N Square is building a network of influencers
and innovators just like you. Bring us your ideas
and your resources. We’ll put them to work to make
us all safer and more secure from the threat
of nuclear weapons—and we’ll even provide seed
funding for some of the most promising ideas.
N Square is building a network of influencers
and innovators justnsquarecollaborative.org
like you. Bring us your ideas
and your [email protected]
We’ll put them to work to make
us all safer and more secure from the threat
of nuclear weapons—and we’ll even provide seed
funding for some of the most promising ideas.
nsquarecollaborative.org
[email protected]