Journal of Plant Ecology VOLUME 9, NUMBER 5, PAGES 508–519 October 2016 doi:10.1093/jpe/rtv083 Advance Access publication 5 January 2016 available online at www.jpe.oxfordjournals.org Effects of grazing and precipitation variability on vegetation dynamics in a Mongolian dry steppe Tserenpurev Bat-Oyun1,2,*, Masato Shinoda3, Yunxiang Cheng4 and Yadamjav Purevdorj5 1 Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University, Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, Japan Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, Ulaanbaatar 15160, Mongolia 3 Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan 4 College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China 5 Department of Food Science and Human Wellness, Rakuno Gakuen University, Ebetsu, Hokkaido 069-8501, Japan *Correspondence address. Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University, Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, Japan. Tel/Fax: +81-857-21-7030; E-mail: [email protected] 2 Abstract Aims Grazing and water availability are the primary drivers of vegetation dynamics in grazing-dominated regions of Mongolia with a semi-arid climate and frequent droughts. Nomadic animal husbandry still plays a large part in the economy of Mongolia, but more variable precipitation regime and increase in livestock number have severely affected grassland ecosystems through overgrazing, leading to pasture degradation. This study aimed to examine the effects of grazing exclusion, interannual variation of plant-available precipitation (PAP) and their interaction on the aboveground biomass (AGB) of each dominant species, the AGB of annual species and the total AGB in a Mongolian dry steppe, using long-term field data. Methods To detect the effect of grazing on vegetation dynamics, vegetation surveys were conducted in a non-grazed exclosure zone and a fully grazed area outside the exclosure. We assessed the effects of grazing, PAP and their interaction on AGB parameters using a generalized linear model. A detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) was used to visualize the effects of grazing and PAP on the AGB of each species. Important Findings Grazing, PAP and their interaction had significant effects on AGB. The effect of grazing on AGB was larger with higher precipitation and higher amounts of AGB (i.e. forage) while AGB was strongly limited in drought years, which resulted in a smaller grazing effect. The current year PAP had the highest impact (r = 0.88, P < 0.01) on AGB. The dominance of annual species was characterized by the amount of PAP in the current and preceding years: annuals dominated in wet years that followed consecutive dry years. The DCA Axis 1 reflected the variation of AGB with interannual variation of PAP while the DCA Axis 2 differentiated the grazing effect. The DCA scatter diagram based on species score illustrated that Artemisia adamsii (an unpalatable herb) was clearly linked to grazing disturbance whereas palatable perennials such as Agropyron cristatum, Stipa krylovii and Cleistogenes squarrosa were related to grazing abandonment and wetter conditions. In brief, number of livestock, hence the grazing impacts on vegetation dynamic in this region could have driven by forage availability, which is mainly controlled by current-year PAP. Keywords: aboveground biomass, annual species, drought, grazing, plant-available precipitation Received: 23 December 2014, Revised: 29 September 2015, Accepted: 29 December 2015 INTRODUCTION For several thousand years, Mongolian pastoral nomads have developed traditional grazing lifestyle adapted to the country’s cold, dry climate. Mongolia is one of the few countries where nomadic animal husbandry still plays a large part in the economy. This industry accounts for 16.5% of GDP, and 27.8% of the population relies on it as a source of food and income (National Statistical Office of Mongolia 2014). Natural grassland covers 80% of the country, and the Mongolian steppe comprises a major portion of the East Asian grasslands (Batima and Dagvadorj 2000). This grassland is a major source of forage for livestock. The frequencies of extreme events such as drought and dzud (severe winter) have been © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Botanical Society of China. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: [email protected] Bat-Oyun et al. | Effects of grazing and precipitation on vegetation509 increased due to human induced climate change, especially in the last two decades (Batima and Dagvadorj 2000). This condition has led to more threats in livestock farming and pasture management, increasing their vulnerability. In 1992, there was an abrupt change in social and economic systems, from a centrally planned socialist economy (state-owned livestock and pasture land with systematic control by state on pasture use) to a free market economy (livestock was privatized but pasture land remained state-owned). Herders became entirely responsible for their own herding management, leading to increases in herd number (Chuluun and Ojima 2001). The number of livestock increased by 49.5% from 25.7 million in 1992 to 51.9 million in 2014 (National Statistical Office of Mongolia 2014). Such increases in livestock have severely affected grassland ecosystems through overgrazing, leading to pasture degradation (Hilker et al. 2013). Previous studies have revealed that grazing is a key anthropogenic disturbance on natural grasslands in arid and semiarid ecosystems, and plays an important role in shaping the structure and functions of plant communities (Cingolani et al. 2005; Milchunas et al. 1989). Increased grazing has been tended to increase plant mortality and ultimately decrease species richness especially in water- and nutrient-limited environments (Fynn and O’Connor 2000; Proulx and Mazumder 1998). Grazing also reduces the abundance and biomass of palatable species and increases the proportion of unpalatable and grazing-resistant species (Adler and Morales 1999; Hickman and Hartnett 2002). Other studies have demonstrated that while overgrazing can result in grassland degradation (Cooper et al. 2005), moderate grazing can promote plant growth and increase species diversity (Huston 1979; Sasaki et al. 2008). Drought and grazing interact closely to affect ecosystems in grazed grasslands (Milchunas et al. 1989). In the arid and semi-arid regions of Mongolia, frequent drought events are the key factor driving livestock dynamics by limiting forage availability, which may further exacerbate dzud conditions (Begzsuren et al. 2004). In Mongolia, grazing land is stateowned and free for public use. When drought occurs, herders move their herds in search of better forage and water to build up the condition of their livestock and increase their chances of surviving harsh winter conditions. Variability in precipitation and drought have substantial impacts not only on the quantitative aspect (biomass, Lauenroth and Sala 1992; Le Houérou et al. 1988; Yang et al. 2008) but also qualitative aspects such as phenology (Shinoda et al. 2007); species composition (Bai et al. 2004; Cheng et al. 2011; Kinugasa et al. 2012; Ni 2003); plant life cycles (Le Houèrou 1996; Li et al. 2011, Loeser et al. 2007; Tilman and El Haddi 1992); and radiation-use efficiency (Bat-Oyun et al. 2012). Vegetation dynamics can be studied using equilibrium and non-equilibrium models, although the debate on which to use has not been adequately resolved (Díaz et al. 1999). The equilibrium model suggests a tight coupling of plant–herbivore systems, with grazing being important in ecosystem modification. In non-equilibrium models, abiotic factors such as precipitation have a greater influence on vegetation dynamics than grazing (Sullivan and Rohde 2002). Wiens (1984) suggested that drier environments are affected by unpredictable abiotically driven dynamics to a greater extent than wetter environments. Therefore, the effects of grazing and climate would be more complex in the environments characterized by low and erratic rainfall. Previous research indicated that environments with less than 250 mm of annual precipitation and a coefficient of variation (CV) greater than 33% in interannual precipitation are better described by nonequilibrium model (Ellis 1995; Illius and O’Connor 1999). Based on these thresholds, we expected that the interannual variation of precipitation in the Mongolian semi-arid ecosystem would have a greater effect on vegetation than grazing, and we ascribed vegetation changes mainly to interannual variation of precipitation rather than grazing, reflecting nonequilibrium dynamics. This study aimed to investigate the effects of year-round grazing (hereinafter referred to as grazing) and precipitation variability on vegetation dynamics in a Mongolian dry steppe with 9 years of species-specific, systematically observed datasets under naturally grazed and grazing-excluded conditions. The response variables are the aboveground biomass (AGB) of each dominant species, the AGB of annual species (annuals) and total AGB. MATERIALS AND METHODS The present study was conducted in Bayan-Unjuul county (47°02′37.2″N, 105°57′04.9″E, 1200 m asl), in a moderately dry steppe (Vostokova and Gunin 2005), with steppe vegetation as described by Yunatov (1976). The region’s climate is semi-arid, with an aridity index ranging between 0.2 and 0.5 (UNEP 1992). The site is characterized by low annual precipitation, with high inter- and intra-seasonal variability, frequent droughts and sandy, nutrient-poor soils (Shinoda et al. 2010). Meteorological observations were collected ~400 m southeast of the center of the observation site by the monitoring station of the Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IRIMHE) of Mongolia. Data from the IRIMHE station showed that the long-term (1995– 2012) annual mean temperature was 0.1°C (16.8°C during the growing season, May–Aug) with a minimum of −24.2°C in January and a maximum of 20.4°C in July. Annual precipitation averaged from 1995 to 2012 was 165.8 mm with high interannual variation (CV = 29%), and precipitation was concentrated in the growing season (131.0 mm, CV = 30%). Over past decades, the site has experienced droughts in 1999, 2000 and 2002 [<100 mm of plant-available precipitation (PAP)], with the most severe drought (<72 mm of PAP) in 2005–2007. In this study, PAP is the accumulated precipitation from 1 May through the earlier dates of biomass sampling as defined by Shinoda et al. (2014). The long-term average (1995–2012) of PAP was 122.5 mm (Fig. 1a). For the years when we did not 510 Journal of Plant Ecology Figure 1: interannual variations of (a) PAP (1999–2012) and the long-term average (1995–2012) of PAP (b) aboveground biomass in the grazed (G) and non-grazed (NG) plots (2003–2012, except in 2003 for NG plots and in 2009 both plots). *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, ***P < 0.001. measure AGB (1999–2002 and 2009), we considered a period from 1 May to 25 Aug as the growth period. It is noted that four high precipitation events (one large event at 21.2 mm/ day in 2003 and three large events at 14.2–25.7 mm/day within a few days in 2008) were recorded early in the growing season, which was exceptional. The soil at the site was classified as a Kastanozem (FAO/ ISRIC 1998), which is widely distributed in the plain steppes of Mongolia (Dorjgotov 2003). The soil has a low water-holding capacity, and the vegetation cover is sparse. Year-round free grazing occurs of large livestock herds dominated by goats and sheep, with some horses and cattle. A 300 × 300 m area at the study site has been surrounded by a fence since June 2004, to protect this area from grazing by livestock. The exclosure was established to detect the effect of long-term grazing exclusion on natural grassland (Shinoda et al. 2010). Before the exclosure was constructed, livestock grazing had long been experienced in the area. The Bayan-Unjuul, including our site, was grazed with a stocking rate of ~0.4 sheep equivalent ha−1 for 4 years (2000–2003) before establishing the exclosure. This stocking rate was classified as light to moderate grazing in a similar steppe region of Mongolia (Shinoda et al. 2010). The study area was homogeneous before the exclosure was established. Data collection The AGB of each species was collected and measured once at the end of August or September each year between 2003 and 2008 and between 2010 and 2012, which coincides with the period of peak plant growth. Exceptions to this were in 2007, when the AGB was sampled and measured in July, and in 2009 for which data are missing. No data were available in 2003 for the non-grazed area since the fence was not erected until 2004. The experimental layout was a fully randomized design. To detect the effect of grazing on vegetation dynamics, the vegetation survey was conducted in two types of areas: a non-grazed area located inside the exclosure, and a fully grazed area outside the exclosure. Sampling with quadrats is commonly used for most plant communities (Cox 1990). During each annual survey 1 × 1 m quadrats for this sparse grassland ecosystem were randomly placed in the grazed area outside the exclosure (G plot) and non-grazed area inside the large exclosure (NG plot). Each G and NG plot included four random replications (quadrats) at the four corners of the outside and inside of the exclosure. The aboveground parts of each species were clipped at ground level in four 1 m2 quadrats of the G and NG plots, respectively. Wide buffer zones were used for both G and NG plots to avoid edge effects from the fence. Each year the sampled plots were marked to Bat-Oyun et al. | Effects of grazing and precipitation on vegetation511 avoid re-sampling in the subsequent years. All collected plant materials were oven-dried at 80°C for 3 days and were then weighed to determine their dry weights. NG plots for each year was tested by t test with Bonferroni’s adjustment. RESULTS Data analysis Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA; Hill and Gauch 1980) was used to visualize the effects of grazing and PAP on the AGB of each species. DCA assumes that the most important environmental gradient causes the largest variation in the species composition. DCA applies detrending to avoid an arch effect by dividing the first axis into several segments and then centering the second axis on zero within each of those segments (Gauch 1982). Ordination diagrams were plotted for the first and second axes, which had considerably higher eigenvalues than the lower order axes. To evaluate the relationship between the DCA axes and environmental factors, a regression analysis was conducted. We evaluated the effects of grazing, interannual variation of PAP and their interaction on the AGB of each dominant species, the AGB of annuals and total AGB using a generalized linear model with normal distribution and an identity link function. Simple regression analysis and Pearson’s correlation were used to determine the impacts of PAP parameters on the AGB parameters. First, we tested for effects of the current year (t), then combinations of first to fifth preceding years (e.g. (t−1), (t−1) + (t−2), (t−1) + (t−2) + (t−3), etc.). Finally, we measured the association effect of the current and preceding years’ (e.g. (t) + (t−1), (t) + (t−1) + (t−2), (t) + (t−1) + (t−2) + (t−3), etc.) total PAP on the current year’s total AGB and the proportional AGB of annuals in the NG plots. Statistical analysis was performed with JMP 12 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) statistical software and R software (version 2.8.0, R Development Core Team 2008). The difference in AGB between G and Effects of grazing, PAP and their interaction on AGB Analysis of the generalized linear model demonstrated that AGB was significantly affected (P < 0.001) by grazing, interannual variations in PAP and their interaction during the study period (Table 1). In general, grazing resulted in a significantly lower AGB ± standard error (72.0 ± 12.6 g/m2) than in the NG areas (123.1 ± 29.6 g/m2) during the study period. On an interannual basis, grazing significantly reduced AGB in 2005, 2011 and 2012. This pattern was not consistent in the driest years of 2006 and 2007, when AGB was slightly higher in the G plots than in the NG plots (Fig. 1). The current-year AGB was significantly related to the current-year PAP during the study period. In general, greater AGB was characterized by wet conditions, whereas the consecutive dry years of 2005–2007 resulted in reductions in AGB (Fig. 1). However, the results conducted for the NG plots revealed that the current-year PAP was similar in the two wet years (137.6 mm in 2004 and 139.6 mm in 2008) and in the two dry years (69.8 mm in 2005 and 72 mm in 2006), but different AGB were recorded. The AGB was higher but not significantly (P < 0.1) in 2008 (147.5 ± 26.5 g/m2) than in 2004 (93.0 ± 11.9 g/m2); and significantly higher (P < 0.05) in 2005 (87.1 ± 9.0 g/m2) than in 2006 (44.9 ± 6.2 g/m2). To improve understanding of interannual variations in AGB, we modeled the current-year AGB in the NG plots against the PAP parameters in the current year, in sequential combinations of the first to fifth preceding years and in sequential combinations of Table 1: results of the generalized linear model for the effects of grazing, interannual variation of PAP and their interaction on the AGB of each dominant species, the AGB of annuals and total AGB during the study period Grazing (G) Source Degrees of freedom (df) P value PAP Sig. level 1 P value G x PAP Sig. level 7 P value Sig. level 7 Agropyron cristatum 0.01 * 0.31 ns 0.46 ns Stipa krylovii 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** Cleistogenes squarrosa 0.01 * 0.22 ns 0.74 ns Elymus chinensis 0.61 ns 0.59 ns 0.56 ns Carex spp 0.28 ns 0.01 * 0.94 ns Caragana spp 0.04 * 0.04 * 0.15 ns Artemisia adamsii 0.03 * 0.00 *** 0.12 ns Chenopodium spp 0.64 ns 0.006 ** 1.00 ns Salsola spp 0.15 ns 0.38 ns 0.86 ns Annual species 0.06 † 0.02 * 0.41 ns Total AGB 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** Here, the AGB of each variable is based on a normal distribution. ns: not significant. † P < 0.1, *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, ***P < 0.001. 512 Journal of Plant Ecology the current and first to fifth preceding years. This allowed us to test for a possible time lag effect of PAP. The result of this analysis demonstrated that the current-year PAP had a significant positive impact (r = 0.88, P < 0.01) on AGB. In terms of the combined effects of PAP over time, PAP in the current and first preceding year (r = 0.62, P < 0.1) and current and first two preceding years (r = 0.65, P < 0.1) best explained the current-year AGB variation (Table 2). The interactive effect of grazing and PAP on AGB, depicted by an interaction plot, showed that the differences in AGB between the G and NG plots increased with higher PAP values while this difference was strongly limited in drier conditions (top right corner, Fig. 2k). In the wettest year (164.1 mm of PAP in 2011), AGB increased sharply from the G plot to the NG plot, while in the driest year (48.8 mm of PAP in 2007), AGB is slightly decreased from the G plot to the NG plot (bottom left corner, Fig. 2k). These findings suggest that the grazing effect expressed by AGB differences between the G and NG plots is enhancing with an increase in PAP. Effects of grazing, PAP and their interaction on the AGB of dominant species In total, 42 species, including 12 annuals, 1 biennial and 29 perennials, were recorded during the study period. As shown in Fig. 3, the AGB was formed mainly by nine species including the palatable perennial grasses (Agropyron cristatum, Stipa krylovii, Cleistogenes squarrosa and Elymus chinensis), palatable perennial herbs [Carex duriuscula and Carex korshinskii (Carex spp.)], an unpalatable perennial herb (Artemisia adamsii), palatable perennial small shrubs [Caragana microphylla and Caragana stenophylla (Caragana spp.)] and unpalatable annual herbs [Chenopodium album, Chenopodium aristatum, and Chenopodium acuminatum (Chenopodium spp.); and Salsola collina and Salsola ruthenica (Salsola spp.)]. Here, species Table 2: relationships between AGB, proportional AGB of annuals (AAGB) for NG plots and different sets of plant-available precipitation Possible variables (x) Response variables (y) df r P RR (t) AGB 7 0.88** <0.01 RR (t) + (t−1) AGB 7 0.62† <0.1 RR (t) + (t−1) + (t−2) AGB 7 0.65† <0.1 RR (t) AAGB 8 0.57† <0.1 RR (t−1) + (t−2) + (t−3) AAGB 8 −0.74* <0.05 RR (t−1) + (t−2) + (t−3) + (t−4) AAGB 8 −0.86** <0.01 The correlations with high (P < 0.1) or significant impacts (P < 0.05 and P < 0.01) were included in the table, in which RR (t), RR (t−1), RR (t−2), RR (t−3) and RR (t−4) indicate the PAP amount in the current and first to fourth preceding years, respectively. For the missing observation year in 2009, only the proportions of annuals were obtained from the agrometeorological station of IRIMHE, which has observation plots inside and outside the 300 × 300 m enclosure. Significant correlation coefficients are highlighted in bold. † P < 0.1, *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01. palatability and life cycle was defined based on previous literature (Undarmaa et al. 2015). The generalized linear model predicting the effects of grazing on the AGB of each dominant species during the study period demonstrated that significantly higher AGB for A. cristatum, S. krylovii, C. squarrosa and Caragana spp. higher, although not statistically significant, AGB for E. chinensis, Carex spp. and Chenopodium spp. were found in the NG plots compared with the G plots. In contrast, significantly higher AGB for A. adamsii (P < 0.05) and higher (but not significant) AGB for Salsola. spp. were estimated in the G plots compared with the NG plots (Table 1). On an interannual basis, in 2005, 2011 and 2012, the years with significant grazing impacts on AGB, perennial palatable species including A. cristatum, S. krylovii and C. squarrosa contributed high proportions to the total biomass in the NG plots. Meanwhile, the proportions of unpalatable species of A. adamsii, Chenopodium spp. and Salsola spp. in the G plots were higher relative to the palatable species (Fig. 3). A significant positive effect of PAP on individual species can be seen for the AGB of S. krylovii, Carex spp., Caragana spp., A. adamsii and Chenopodium spp. during the study period. No significant effect of PAP was found for the other dominant species (Table 1). The interactive effect of grazing and PAP on each species was illustrated through interaction plots (Fig. 2). The clear differences in AGB between the G and NG plots for A. cristatum, S. krylovii, C. squarrosa, Caragana spp. and A. adamsii were associated with increases of PAP (top right corner, Fig. 2a–c, f and g). This difference was fairly consistent for E. chinensis, Carex spp., Chenopodium spp. and Salsola spp. (top right corner, Fig. 2d, e, h and i). With regard to the AGB changes from the G plot to the NG plot in the wettest and driest years, the most pronounced changes were for S. krylovii and A. adamsii (bottom left corner, Fig. 2b and g). In the wettest year, the AGB for S. krylovii increased sharply from the G plot to the NG plot, while in contrast the AGB of A. adamsii decreased markedly from the G plot to the NG plot (bottom left corner, Fig. 2b and g). Statistically significant interactive effects of grazing and PAP were detected only for S. krylovii (Table 1). Effects of grazing, PAP and their interaction on annuals Strong (P < 0.1) and significant (P < 0.05) effects of grazing and interannual variation of PAP were found on the AGB of annuals (Table 1). No significant interactive effect was found. Grazing resulted in higher AGB for annuals than in the non-grazed area during the study period. Statistical tests implemented year by year demonstrated that the proportion of annuals was clearly higher (P < 0.1) in the G plots relative to the NG plots in both 2010 (dry year) and 2011 (wet year). Annuals dominated in the wet years (2003 and 2008), which followed three sequential dry years. In the wettest post-droughts year of 2003, two Salsola species (annuals) Bat-Oyun et al. | Effects of grazing and precipitation on vegetation513 Figure 2: interaction plots obtained from the generalized linear model showing interactive effect of PAP and grazing on the AGB of each dominant species (a–i), the AGB of annual species (j) and total AGB (k). Here 164.1 and 48.8 is corresponding to the PAP in the wettest (2011) and driest (2007) year during the study period. G and NG denote the grazed and non-grazed plots. Lines in the top right corner indicate that changes of AGB along PAP variation for the G and NG plots. Lines in the bottom left corner represent that change of AGB from G to NG plot for the wettest and driest years. accounted for 79% of the total AGB for the G plots (no data for NG plot), after recovery from multiple droughts in 1999, 2000 and 2002. Similarly, in the wet year of 2008, which was preceded by consecutive dry years in 2005–2007, the AGB of the three Chenopodium species (annuals) contributed the highest portion to the total AGB for the G (62%) and NG (67%) plots (Fig. 3). To comprehensively understand the response of annuals to PAP, the current-year proportional AGB of annuals measured in the NG plots and precipitation parameters from the PAP of the current year, sequential combinations of the first to fifth preceding years and sequential combinations of the current and first to fifth preceding years were proposed as predictive parameters during the study period. A positive and high correlation (r = 0.57, P < 0.1) was found between the current-year PAP and current-year proportional AGB of annuals. In contrast to the current year, negative and significant time-lagged effects were obtained between the current-year proportional AGB of annuals and PAP amount in the three (r = −0.74, P < 0.05) and four (r = −0.86, P < 0.01) sequential preceding years (Table 2). The interaction plots of grazing and PAP for annuals showed that trends in the AGB of annuals in the G plots mirrored those in the NG plots and increased consistently with increases of PAP, indicating that AGB for annuals was driven more strongly by PAP than grazing (top right corner, Fig. 2j). The AGB of 514 Journal of Plant Ecology Figure 3: relative AGB composition of dominant species in (a) NG and (b) G plots. Figure 4: DCA based on AGB at the G (open circles) and NG (black circles) plots in different years. Here, the smallest circle corresponds with the driest year, whereas the largest circle represents the wettest year. Bat-Oyun et al. | Effects of grazing and precipitation on vegetation515 Figure 5: DCA scatter diagram of the nine dominant species (based on species scores). annuals was slightly higher in the G plots than in the NG plots in both the wettest and driest years (bottom left corner, Fig. 2j). DCA The majority of the variation along the DCA axes 1 and 2 explained interannual variation of precipitation and differences in AGB between the G and NG plots. The gradient along axis 1 generally reflected the variation of AGB with interannual variation of PAP (eigenvalue = 0.62). The AGB measured in years with relatively more precipitation were positioned near the lower score on the left (bigger circles), and those measured in years with less precipitation had the higher scores on the right (smaller circles) along axis 1. The years 2003 and 2008 were noteworthy. In these years, cases of the annuals dominated and were the main contributors to total AGB, which was controlled by not only the current year but also the preceding year’s PAP as described above (Table 2, Fig. 4). The axis 2 scores were related to the effect of grazing on AGB along the y-axis, with the G plots (open circles) at the top and the NG plots (black circles) towards the bottom (eigenvalue = 0.35). The regression analysis on the DCA axes scores and environmental factors indicates that variation in AGB that was expressed on axis 1 had a negative and significant correlation (r = −0.56, P < 0.05) with the current-year PAP, excluding the noteworthy cases of the annuals dominated. Meanwhile, scores on the DCA axis 2 were significantly correlated (r = −0.31, P < 0.05) with AGB in the G and NG plots. Ordination of the dominant species by the DCA is depicted in Fig. 5. The species scores tended to reflect the effect of grazing and the interannual variation of PAP, which supports the results previously presented in this study. The most palatable plant species (such as A. cristatum, S. krylovii and C. squarrosa) were positioned at the lower negative scores under wet and non-grazed conditions, and an unpalatable species, A. adamsii was clearly separated from the other species at the highest positive score along the y-axis under grazing. DISCUSSION We expected that grazing would have a smaller effect than interannual variation of precipitation on vegetation dynamics in the dry steppe (a non-equilibrium model). However, our findings over an 9-year indicated that vegetation dynamics in this area are characterized by both equilibrium and non-equilibrium systems. Grassland AGB and species composition were strongly defined by the interannual precipitation as characteristics of a non-equilibrium model. However, there were also evidences supporting an equilibrium model, including significant differences in AGB under grazing and grazing-excluded conditions, significant effects of grazing on some species, increases in the amount of unpalatable annuals and decreases in palatable species in the G plots relative to the NG plots. This result supports the findings of several other researchers who have adopted an intermediate pattern that recognizes 516 ecosystems possess characteristics of both equilibrium and nonequilibrium systems (Ho 2001; Oba et al. 2003). Studies conducted on vegetation dynamics in different vegetation zones of the Mongolian grasslands indicate that these respond differently to equilibrium and non-equilibrium models. In relation to biomass, species cover and richness, vegetation in the desert steppe conformed to the non-equilibrium model, whereas the steppe zone was characterized by an equilibrium model (Cheng et al. 2011; Fernandez-Gimenez and Allen-Diaz 1999). At a regional scale, ecosystems in dry environments mostly corresponded to the non-equilibrium model (Sullivan and Rohde 2002), while in other studies on a larger scale, dry ecosystems often experienced equilibrium dynamics (Illius and O’Connor 1999, Oba et al. 2003). Wesche and Retzer (2005) proposed that equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions depend on the variables examined. A worldwide study by Milchunas and Lauenroth (1993) suggested that site history also matters in regard to the magnitude of grazing impact, and this is likely to be important in the Mongolian steppes where nomadic pastoralism has formed the principal land use over centuries. In Mongolia, the livestock population has increased over recent decades because of privatization of livestock to herders and public use of pastoral land, mainly driven by institutional change. On a local scale, livestock densities are not stable and are driven largely by forage availability, which in turn affects grazing impact. For example, under nomadic herding strategies, animals are moved from drought-affected areas into areas that have recently had high rainfall, and thus have good forage availability. These areas then experience significant grazing impact. This was discussed in the next section. Both this research and previous studies suggest that allocation of vegetation dynamics to an equilibrium and non-equilibrium system is complex and can depend on a broad range of factors including eco-climatological conditions, choice of variables, grazing pressure and management, site history, and spatial and temporal scales. Effects of grazing, PAP and their interaction on AGB A significant positive impact of precipitation on AGB in this study was consistent with the findings of previous studies (Bat-Oyun et al. 2010; Fernandez-Gimenez and Allen-Diaz 1999; Munkhtsetseg et al. 2007; Shinoda et al. 2010). Grazing significantly reduced the AGB relative to the NG area in the wet years (2005, 2011 and 2012), while the opposite trend (but not significant) occurred in the dry years (2006 and 2007), showing that there was little or no consumption of AGB in the grazed plots. It is, therefore, believed that the number of livestock, and hence the grazing effect, is controlled by forage (i.e. biomass) availability to livestock. From a practical point of view, in the dry years livestock numbers may collapse owing to limited availability of forage and water. Nomadic pastoralists, therefore, reduce the risk for livestock associated with drought by moving their livestock to places where more pasture and water is available. Journal of Plant Ecology In wet years, grazing significantly reduced AGB mainly owing to the reduction of palatable species. This could be explained by the increases in livestock numbers with an influx of livestock from places where drought had previously occurred. Previous research supports our finding that livestock numbers are driven by forage availability, which is controlled by precipitation during a given summer (Gillson and Hoffman 2007; Retzer 2004). Examining the relationship with PAP parameters, the AGB is primarily controlled by the current-year PAP (r = 0.88, P < 0.01) and also combinations of the current and first preceding year (r = 0.62, P < 0.1) and current, first and second preceding years’ (r = 0.65, P < 0.1) PAP. A number of studies have documented that the current and preceding year’s precipitation have a strong influence on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index of the current year in some regions of the world (North America, Wang et al. 2003; Africa, Wiegand et al. 2004; Mongolia, Nandintsetseg et al. 2010). In this study, dry years receiving similar precipitation resulted in significantly different AGB in the NG plots (PAP were 69.8 and 72.0 mm, AGB were 87.1 and 44.9 g/m2 for 2005 and 2006, respectively). We suggest a possible reason for greater AGB in 2005 was due to high soil moisture and greater AGB mainly from perennial species in a preceding wet year in 2004. High AGB in 2004 produced a substantial amount of leaf litter and this litter accumulation helped to maintain high soil moisture owing to shading of the soil surface (Goldberg and Werner 1983; Kinugasa et al. 2012), and remained in the frozen soil until the following season. In contrast, less AGB was produced in 2006, which followed the dry year of 2005. Another example is shown in the wet years (137.6 mm of PAP in 2004 which followed a wet year dominated by annuals (79% of Salsola spp.) and 139.6 mm of PAP in 2008 which followed consecutive dry years dominated by perennials). In these years, different but not significant AGB was produced (93.0 g/m2 in 2004 and 147.5 g/ m2 in 2008). The probable reason underlying this pattern is a difference in species composition in the current and preceding years: in 2004 perennial species were dominant, while in 2008 annuals (Chenopodium spp. and Salsola spp.) were dominant. Annuals can result in more allocation to AGB and less allocation to belowground biomass. We believe that high litter accumulation produced by Salsola spp. in preceding year of 2003 could not maintain soil moisture through soil shading process as the way above mentioned, because Salsola collina is a species that senesces into a ball of dried branches. This ball is easily uprooted owing to its shallow root system, and then blows away in the wind (personal observation). Moreover, less accumulation of belowground biomass from annuals in 2003 may cause negative feedback on AGB in the following year through the coupled interaction between aboveground and belowground components (Wardle et al. 2004). To confirm this, systematic research is required on dynamics of the aboveground and belowground parts of ecosystems over the long term. We expected that in 2008, AGB experienced more by the current-year species composition than PAP in the preceding dry years. The greater AGB in 2008 possibly attributed by the dominance of annuals (Chenopodium spp. and Bat-Oyun et al. | Effects of grazing and precipitation on vegetation517 Salsola spp.), which are high in aboveground part in comparison to perennial grasses. Therefore, species composition in the preceding and current seasons may also contribute to the biomass -precipitation relationship in this grassland, which is consistent with the findings of a previous study in the Inner Mongolian grassland (Bai et al. 2008). Effects of grazing, PAP and interaction on species composition It is well known that livestock selectively graze on plants because of the quantity of plant production and the nutritional quality of the plant species (Wilson and Harrington, 1984). Such dynamics are also evident in the present study. In the years of 2005, 2011 and 2012, AGB significantly decreased under grazing. We expect that selective grazing by livestock is a possible cause for such differences, decreasing the abundance of palatable perennial grasses such as A. cristatum, S. krylovii and C. squarrosa (Ronnenberg et al. 2011; Sergelenkhuu and Oyuntsetseg 2008) and increasing the dominance of unpalatable herbs and annuals such as A. adamsii, Chenopodium spp. and Salsola spp. (Jigjidsuren and Johnson 2003). Consistent with our results, previous research has found that most palatable and nutritious plants were removed under grazing (Adler and Morales 1999; Fernandez-Gimenez and Allen-Diaz 1999; Hickman and Hartnett 2002; Sasaki et al. 2005, Tsubo et al. 2012). There is evidence that the domination of A. adamsii under grazing disturbance (Hilbig 1995) is an indicator of pasture degradation (Sergelenkhuu and Oyuntsetseg 2008). In summary, both the quantitative aspects (grassland biomass) and the qualitative aspects of vegetation (species composition) are important diagnostic signs of grassland condition under grazing. Effects of grazing, PAP and their interaction on annuals The proportion of annuals were clearly higher in the G plots relative to the NG plots in 2010 (dry year) and 2011 (wet year). Possible reason for that not only selective grazing on grassland discussed above, but also compaction and erosion of soil under livestock trampling, which may form another key disturbance relating to loss of grassland quality through the increase of unpalatable annuals. This result was corroborated by previous research revealing that the abundance and rate of recovery of annuals are influenced by high animal density (FernandezGimenez and Allen-Diaz 2001; Metzger et al. 2005). Annuals appear to be ordered along the PAP variation of the current and preceding seasons, with domination of annuals in the wetter years (Salsola spp. in 2003 and Chenopodium spp. in 2008) that followed three or four consecutive dry years (Figs 1a and 3). Correlation analysis demonstrated that there are strong and positive effect (r = 0.57, P < 0.1) of PAP in current year and significant negative effects of PAP in preceding three (r = −0.74, P < 0.05) and four (r = −0.86, P < 0.01) years on the proportional AGB of annuals in the current year. This indicates that in dry years annuals are dormant and perennial species contribute a major role in the ecosystem, whereas when wet weather conditions return after multiyear droughts, the annuals resume their role in the ecosystem, germinating from the seed bank in soil that has not been depleted or exhausted. Such shifts in the domination of annuals during post-drought recovery have also been observed in grassland ecosystems in Minnesota, USA (Tilman and El Haddi 1992), in Nevada, USA (Lei 1999), in Arizona, USA (Loeser et al. 2007) and in Mongolia (Cheng et al. 2011; Natsagdorj and Sanjid 2005). General and possible mechanisms for the abundant propagation and depletion of annuals include the following. (1) Annuals escape droughts by remaining dormant in the seed bank for several years (up to 20 years, Natsagdorj and Sanjid 2005), and then abundantly propagate when soil moisture is favorable again, leading to nutrient pulses. (2) Annuals commence their life cycle each year from seeds, which experience a greater mortality rate than perennials in dry years. (3) Perennials have a relative advantage over annuals when water is limited, as perennials can access stored soil water in deeper soil through their extensive root system, while annual grasses have shallow roots and utilize soil water in the upper soil that is dependent on precipitation pulses. (4) The present study demonstrated that annuals are associated with the timing and amount of precipitation, especially during the early-growing season to germinate seeds. The years 2003 and 2008, when annuals germinated in large numbers, were characterized by not only the precipitation amount during the current and preceding growing seasons but also by larger amount of precipitation occurred early in the season (in the materials and methods section). On the basis of our results, we obtained the following conclusions. (1) In general, grazing exclusion improved total grassland AGB. However, high interannual variation in PAP and drought events may modify the effect of grazing exclusion, because livestock numbers fluctuate in response to vegetation availability in such climate-dependent nomadic pastoral ecosystem. We suggest that maintaining livestock populations within carrying capacity is important to allow sustainable management of the rangeland. (2) Under grazing disturbance, the AGB of palatable species decreased while unpalatable weeds and annual forbs increased, suggesting that some palatable perennial species are susceptible to heavy grazing. (3) The current-year PAP had a significant positive impact on AGB, while current- and multiple preceding-year PAP had profound effects on the interannual variation in annuals. The present study provides fundamental knowledge on the complex interactions between climate-vegetation-grazing systems, which will usefully underpin efficient planning and management options in arid and semi-arid grasslands. FUNDING Grants-in-Aid from the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (16405002, 20255001 and 25220201); National Natural Science Foundation of China (31402118). 518 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are very grateful to Dr. G.U. Nachinshonhor for his expert advice and kind help with vegetation surveys. We also thank Dr. Toshihiko Kinugasa for his advice with the analysis. This article benefited from constructive comments by the editor of the journal, and three anonymous reviewers. Conflict of interest statement. None declared. 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