How Confirmation Bias Undermines
Compliance and Impedes State-building:
Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
Ben Morse
Paper draft in progress.
Expected 3/4/2016 at
benmorse.net/s/politicsofebola.pdf
Ben Morse
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
1
Motivation
Why are weak states weak?
State capacity is a chicken-and-egg problem
For public goods provision, states need voluntary compliance
For voluntary compliance, they need legitimacy & trust
For legitimacy & trust, they need the capacity to provide
public goods
What to do?
Ben Morse
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Motivation
Among state-building scholars and policymakers, consensus on:
Ben Morse
Democracy
Promotes legitimacy
Reduces commitment problem by holding Govt to account
Aligns state law with citizen preferences
Free press etc.
NGOs
Provide services in the interim
Help to legitimate the state
Especially important in post-conflict states
Deep skepticism of the state
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Preview
Problems with this approach:
Ben Morse
Agents interpret new information in light of their priors
Fragile states often face deep skepticism
NGOs obfuscate channels of responsibility and attribution
e.g. Why is the school in disrepair? vs. Why is the school in
disrepair when Govt is awash in donor finance?
Politics
Opposition politicians exploit ambiguity, skepticism, and low
service provision
Suggests that initial distrust, politics, and polycentrism:
H1 independently undermine state legitimation
H2 interactively undermine state legitimation
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Preview
Motivating observations from the 2014 Ebola Crisis
Ben Morse
Widespread non-compliance with a well-intentioned state
Rumored to be:
Govt conspiracy to attract donor funds
Collaboration w/ U.S. military to test biological warfare
Needed for use against ISIS
For GoSL, Liberia, would help to depopulate opposition areas
Govt poisoning wells, dumping bodies in wells etc.
Allegations made more credible by
Media coverage
Opposition politicians
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Ben Morse
Preview
EVD victims by month of onset
0.2
0.4
0.6
Incumbent Neighborhood (2011)
0.0
Avg. # of EVD Cases
in Social Network
Opposition Neighborhood (2011)
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Effect of Know_EVD_Case_{t} on Know_EVD_Case_{t+1}, by month
0.5
1.0
Incumbent Neighborhood (2011)
0.0
Effect size
1.5
Opposition Neighborhood (2011)
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Theory
Information processing theory
Ben Morse
Systematic processing
Agents exert effort to convert information into “evidence”
Weigh new evidence against priors to form posteriors
Heuristic processing
Use of “shortcuts” in lieu of cognitive effort
e.g. Partisan cues, “Double updating”
Occurs when agents unable/unwilling to systematically
process info
Can lead to bias when heuristics privilege priors
Dual processing
When able, process info systematically
When in doubt, use heuristics
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Theory
Information processing theory (continued)
Ben Morse
Affective reasoning
Agents committed to their prior beliefs
worldviews, religion, identity
To preserve their priors, agents will:
Misinterpret evidence (e.g. attribution bias)
Ignore rival evidence
Seek out good evidence (e.g. confirmation bias)
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Theory
Distinction between affective and heuristic processing is critical
Ben Morse
Affective reasoning
Agents committed to their prior beliefs
Will trade-off truth to preserve priors
Implication: Limited ability to reduce bias w/ clear &
credible info
Heuristic reasoning
Agents value truth
Will trade-off truth to conserve effort
Implication: Reduce bias w/ clear & credible info
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Theory
Implications for state legitimation
H1 Distrust begets distrust
Ben Morse
1
Citizen receives a signal about the state
2
Signal is ambiguous
3
Interprets signal in light of priors
4
Updates beliefs
For example
1
Agent hears rumor about Ebola, wonders if true
2
Low-trust increases probability that rumor is interpreted as
true
Affective or Heuristic processing
3
Belief in rumor further reduces distrust
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Theory
State legitimation & politics
When state weak and centralized, opposition parties can’t affect
tangible outcomes. Instead:
Increase circulation of noisy, negative signals about the state
Oppositions’ “narratives” serve as heuristics
Engender partisan identity?
Positive affect toward opposition
Negative affect toward incumbent
Negative affect toward incumbent state
H2 Politics amplifies H1
Ben Morse
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Theory
State legitimation & polycentric governance
Polycentric governance: multiple authorities share responsibility
w/in a jurisdiction
Co-production of goods and services
Ambiguity of attribution
Increase perceptions of Govt capacity
$ 10,000 buys a fighter jet?
Increase uncertainty about Govt capacity
How much $ does the Govt get?
Visibility matters
e.g. Govt jeeps “w/ support of USAID”
H3 Polycentric governance amplifies H1
Ben Morse
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Theory
State legitimation & polycentric governance
What to make of my school in disrepair?
Absent polycentrism:
A clear signal of low state capacity
Justified by resource constraints
With polycentrism
The subject of speculation
Low capacity?
Corruption?
Still attributable to the state (I argue)
H3 Polycentric governance amplifies H1
H4 Polycentric governance increases perceptions of corruption
Ben Morse
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Theory
State legitimation & polycentric governance
Implications
Ben Morse
Ability to credit claim is contingent on citizens’ priors
Will be more difficult where citizens are wary
NGOs can undermine accountability in one of two ways
False credit claiming by the state (Uganda?)
Inability of state to receive credit (Liberia?)
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Theory
Politics, polycentric governance & state legitimation
Ben Morse
Suggests that initial distrust, politics, and polycentrism:
independently undermine state legitimation
interactively undermine state legitimation
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Theory
Politics, polycentric governance & state legitimation
Ben Morse
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
16
Theory
Politics, polycentric governance & state legitimation
Ben Morse
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
17
Theory
Politics, polycentric governance & state legitimation
Ben Morse
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
18
Preliminary evidence
Evidence from Ebola crisis in Liberia
Ben Morse
Ebola introduced immense uncertainty
H1a: Low-trust citizens will be more likely to believe in
rumors
H1b: Ebola will spread faster in low-trust social networks
Should only occur in the early stages of the crisis.
I use opposition vote choice in 2011 as proxy for low-trust
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Preliminary evidence
Evidence from Ebola crisis in Liberia
Ben Morse
Around the time of Independence Day (July 26), ...
Vote for Incumbent in 2011
Vote for Opposition in 2011
64%
Willing to
report cases?
Believe Ebola
was a Govt
Conspiracy?
72%
45%
36%
63%
Believe Ebola
was real?
73%
% Yes
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Preliminary evidence
Evidence from Ebola crisis in Liberia
Ben Morse
EVD victims by month of onset
0.2
0.4
0.6
Incumbent Neighborhood (2011)
0.0
Avg. # of EVD Cases
in Social Network
Opposition Neighborhood (2011)
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Effect of Know_EVD_Case_{t} on Know_EVD_Case_{t+1}, by month
0.5
1.0
Incumbent Neighborhood (2011)
0.0
Effect size
1.5
Opposition Neighborhood (2011)
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Preliminary evidence
Belief formation
Ebola:
Ben Morse
Increased polycentrism
Increased negative events
Knowing victims, job lose, forego healthcare
Attribution somewhat ambiguous
H2a: Distrust increases punishment for negative, ambiguous
events.
H2b: Distrust reduces attribution of credit for positive,
ambiguous events.
H2c: Distrust has no effect on unambiguous events.
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Preliminary evidence
Yij = αj + γshockij + XijT β + ij
where i denotes the respondent, and j the community.
shock is one of either 5 negative experiences during the Ebola
crisis (job loss, forego care for normal illness, know victims,
delayed body retrieval in community) or 2 ‘positive’ experiences
(government or NGO outreach)
Xit is a vector of fixed and pre-crisis covariates: age, wealth,
income, education, gender ethnicity
Shocks are balanced on pre-crisis variables; Estimates robust to
Oster (2015) style sensitivity analysis
Ben Morse
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Preliminary evidence
Belief formation
Vote for Incumbent in 2011
Vote for Opposition in 2011
Delayed Body Retrieval
●
●
HH Member Sick
●
●
Lose Job
●
●
EbolaCase WaitLong
●
●
Ebola Incidence
●
●
NGO Outreach
●
●
Govt Outreach
●
●
−.3
−.1
.1
.3
Standardized Effect of [x] on Aggregate Index
of Govtand
Perceptions
(std)
Ben Morse How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance
Impedes State-building:
Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia 24
Preliminary evidence
Distrust begets distrust
Ben Morse
Ban on rallies
Ban on Gatherings
Curfew
Govt Burials
Delayed Body Retrieval
●
●
●
●
HH Member Sick
●
●
●
●
Lose Job
●
●
●
●
EbolaCase WaitLong
●
●
●
●
Ebola Incidence
●
−.3
●
●
●
−.1
.1
Standardized Effect of [x] on Control Policy [y]
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Preliminary evidence
Recap
Ben Morse
Distrust begets distrust
Politics & polycentrism amplify this potential
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Next steps
Does electoral competition undermine voluntary compliance and
statebuilding? In proximity to elections:
1
2
3
Ben Morse
Supply-side changes in the information environment.
1
Legitimating beliefs about the incumbent decline
2
No change in information processing
Heuristic processing
1
Legitimating beliefs about the incumbent decline
2
Interpretation bias increases for ambiguous information only
Affective processing
1
Legitimating beliefs about the incumbent decline
2
Interpretation bias increases for ambiguous and
unambiguous information
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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Next steps
Electoral cycles of information processing?
Ben Morse
Evaluate these hypotheses in the run-up to the 2017 election
in Liberia
Develop a set of lab-in-the-field experiments to measure
attitudes, information processing, and affect toward state
authority
Conduct experiments at month intervals in run-up to
elections
Assess how pre-election trust (proxied by prior vote choice)
influences how information processing and beliefs evolve
How Confirmation Bias Undermines Compliance and Impedes State-building: Evidence from the Ebola Crisis in Liberia
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