Oxford Population Workshop 2013 Population – the long view
Massimo Livi‐Bacci
What can we learn from world population history?
St John’s College, Oxford, September 16 – 17, 2013.
Geo‐demography ups and downs (I)
• Robust changes in the distribution of WP:
• Mediterranean: North Rim/South‐East Rim: <100% (III Century A.C); 250% (1900); 197% (1950); 56% (2010)
• America: 9%WP (1500), 2% (1800), 13,4%(1950);
• Africa: 20%WP (1600), 7%(1850), 18% (2025)
• China: 23%WP (1700); 37% (1820); 22% 1950
• India: 27%WP (1700); 14% (1950); 17% 2000
Geo‐demography’s ups and downs (II)
TFT and E(0), r = 0
7
Pre-XIX
century,
normal times
6
Populations in transition
XIX-XXI centuries
5
TFT
4
Pre-XIX
crises &
catastrophic times
3
Extinct populations
Any epoch
2
Rich XX century
Rich & New
Rich, XXI cent
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
E(0)
4
Minimum population and extinction
Upper Amazonia, XVIII Century
Hispaniola: Repartimiento of 1514 (first
American Census!!!) [Arranz, 1992, Livi Bacci, 2003]
• Concepcion: 949 men, 786 women, 217 children; ratio men to women = 0,828;
• ratio children to women = 0,276;
• Puerto Plata: 128 men, 108 women, 34 children: ratio men to women = 0,843;
• ratio children to women = 0,315
• Ratios consistent with stable population declining at 3.5% per year
• High mortality a possibility; but also sterility, intrusion of Spaniards in Taino’s women reproductive cycle, separation of couples, general dislocation
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Erratic mortality, resilient fertility
• In the history of mankind the powerful driving force has been mortality. Fertility has always been an extremely robust and resilient characteristic of past populations. Only the destruction of the foundations of fertility (a lack of mating opportunities; separation of couples; loss of libido or decrease of fecundity because of infections, hunger or stress) ever resulted in a seriously diminished and insufficient reproductive capacity.
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Ever changing pathologies, disalignment between standard of living and mortality
• Genetic mutations, changing interaction between humans, microbes, animal vectors, environment…
• New diseases, re‐emersion of old diseases, changing virulence of diseases, vanishing diseases…
• Sweating sickness, typhus, malaria, smallpox, plague…
• Weak association between standard of living (nutrition) and mortality cycles…
Rebounds & adjustments (I)
• After a crisis: «rebound» as exemplified in slide, and realignement on the structural «demographic system»
• Examples of rebounds: after a typical «ancien régime» mortality crisis; after a war (First and Second WW); after «modern» mortality crises (Great Leap Forward: USSR 1932‐33; China: 1959‐61) Rebounds & adjustment (II)
• «Adjustment» after a crisis or catastrophe implies convergence towards a different demographic system.Tempo is an important variable.
• Europe after the XIV‐XV c. plague cycle;
• America after contact with Eurasia
• Japan XVIII‐XIX century («malthusian adjustment»);
• Ireland after the Great Famine («malthusian adjustment»)
Low fertility in a crisis and rebound after the crisis
Fertility & Mortality Crisis
100
Peak
90
80
CBR & CDR
70
60
Serie1
50
Serie2
40
30
20
10
trough
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Time
12
Japan: XVIII and XIX century
• Low population increase between 1720 and 1870 (0,2%);
• Intensification of agriculture, increased working load on women “must have had unfavorable effects on marital fertility, as well as non infant and maternal mortality….”[O. Saito, 1992]
• Evidence of intentional control of reproduction – Abortion, infanticide;
– Lesser role of delayed marriage; 13
Ireland after the Great Famine,
Second Half of the XIX Century
• Population decline: 1841: 8.2 million; 1861: 5,8; 1881: 5,1; 1901: 4,4;
• Steady and high emigration;
• “European system”: high natural, marital fertility; very late marriage; high proportion unmarried; low TFR and NRR; birth rate around 25%° (35%°in England & Scotland)
• NRR 0,8 – 0,85
14
Did pre‐modern Europe ever experience low fertility? The case of England [Wrigley & Schofield, 1981]
• In only 6 out of 67 five‐years periods, between 1541 and 1875, NRR fell below replacement.
• 4 of the 6 below‐replacement quinquennia fell between 1661 and 1685:
• Relevant indicators for 1661‐85 were:
• TFR = 3,91; GRR = 1,91; NRR = 0,945 • r (intrinsic) = ‐0,19 percent
15
Only during the plague was England below replacement ! [cohorts in midlife between 1335‐39 and 1425‐29]
[Russell, 1948; Hollingsworth, 1969]
Replacement Rate, English Men
2,5
1,5
1
0,5
15
00
14
50
14
00
13
50
13
00
0
12
50
Replacement rate
2
16
Mexico:“Suma de Visitas” 1548
[Cook & Borah]
• Data for 252 districts, out of the 900 of the “Suma”
• Range of the ratios between “mozos & muchachos”
[children and youngsters] and “casados” [married couples]: 1,3‐1,6 [high range; ratio compatible with stationary population, 1,9‐2,0];
• Reproduction below replacement; steady decline of Mexico’s population during the first half of the XVIth Century 17
30 Missions of Paraguay, 1640‐1767 [Livi Bacci, 2005]
‐ Steady increase, 1640‐1732;
‐ Decline after 1732: catastrophic war, epi‐
demic crisis (1733,1738‐39,1749,1764‐65)
“Expansion” phase, 1690‐1732:
‐ Mean CBR = 63,2; Mean TFR=8,0 [7,9]
‐ Mean CDR = 45,1; Mean e(0)=26,0 [27,1]
“Catastrophic” phase, 1733‐1767:
‐ Mean CBR = 56,9; Mean TFR=7,6 [7,5]
‐ Mean CDR = 61,4; Mean e(0)=22,2 [24,3]
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Pre‐war (1910‐14) and War (1915‐18) Fertility, France and UK
World War 1 - TFR France and UK
3000
Pre-war
Pre-war
War
2500
TFR
2000
War
1500
1000
500
0
France
UK
Serie1
Serie2
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Fitness, selection and growth
• Migrants are not a random sample of the population of origin: age, health, strength, stamina, willingness to experiment, ability to adapt…This amounts to the concept of fitness
• Fitness of migrants could be defined as their ability to thrive in new contexts (environmental, social, cultural…)
• Numerical success of migrant groups depends on reproduction (fertility & survival)
• Founder or Settler effect (French Canadians XVII‐XVIII, Germans in Russia, XVIII to XIX)
• Displacement of native groups; differential growth; political impact
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Fitness, Selection & Reproduction • Selectivity of migration affects fertility, survival, family structure, growth;
• Migrants of the «waves of migration» in rural contexts, higher fertility, larger families;
• Immigrants in Québec (XVII): higher marital fertility, lower age at marriage, lower mortality than in the regions of origin;
• Higher survival in Australia and New Zealand than in the British Isles;
• Immigrants in industrial and urban context: high mobility, low fertility and small families;
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Founder or Settler effect
• Differential (higher) increase of migrant groups and (possible) displacement of natives;
• French Canadians of Québec, several millions descending from few thousand settlers in the XVII c.;
• 30,000 German settlers in the Volga region in late XVII, half a million in late XVIII;
• Latinos in North America, mid XX to nowdays
22
Origin of migration policies…
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
«Migration policy» (MP) or planned intervention by the State or Nation in order to stimulate, direct, control, select, organize mobility and migration flows;
Many examples of MP since the ancient times, but modern MP are born with the rise of the nation‐state, the definition of its territory , setting of borders and…
with the development of norms and rules on settlement, citizenship…..
MP often attempt to increase the fitness of migrants, in order to improve their chances of success (demographic, social, economic etc…), either by selecting migrants (outgoing, incoming), endowing them with capital , knowledge etc.
Greek cities in mediterr VIII to VI B.C.E (Anatolia, north Africa, italian, Iberian peninsula. «Oikistes»
Mitimas and incan empire (altitude, specialization of agricultural production
Drang nach osten, «populator», capital, tools, seeds, animals, planning, water,
Cases of success ( Catherine the great…Canada XVII‐XVIII) and failures (S Domingo, Tuscany, Sierra Morena…
Great eastward German migration, X to XIV century: Drang nach Osten
• Several hundred thousands farmers, with proper tools, animals, and some capital;
• From the Rhein valley, beyond Elba, Oder, Vistula…1,000 kms in three centuries
• Organized by Princes, Bishops, Chivalric Orders… with capital and planners
• In open land, sparsly settled by seminomadic Vend (Slavs);
• Ownership of land and possible transmission of property
• Large families, generating demographic surplus and new settlement waves
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Modern Policies’ Dilemmas
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Random or Selection
Hidden or Transparent selectivity
Short term or long term
Settlement or full citizenship
Persons or Workers
Single or Connected
Immigrants and Refugees
Ethnic Composition of the Population of the Americas, 1500‐1950
Slaves imported from Africa before 1800, and Black population of America, 1800
Slaves imported from
Region
Africa before 1800
Black population in
Ratio between black
America. 1800
population, 1800, and slaves brought to Am
(1)
(2)
(1):(2) x 100
North America
348
1002
2,9
Hispanic Tierra Firme
750
920
1,2
Brazil
2261
1988
0,9
Caribe
3889
1692
0,4
English & Dutch
2060
570
0,3
French
1415
732
0,5
Spanish (Cuba)
414
390
0,9
7248
5602
0,8
Total
Immigration in America from Europe before 1800, and White population in America, 1800
Ratio between white
population in 1800
White population
Immigration from
and immigration
in America, 1800
Europe before 1800
before 1800
(1)
(2)
(3) = (1) : (2)
Canada, French
180
25
7,2
United States, White
4306
909
4,7
Hispanic America, White
2500
800
3,1
Brazil, White
1010
500
2,0
Total
7996
2234
3,6
Population
Thank you!
Migration Waves in Modern Times
• In north America, the «frontier» moves across the Mississippi to the Pacific Ocean (acquisition of Louisiana, California, Texas; Homstead Act in 1862; gold rush);
• In Siberian Russia, between the 1860s and First World War (liberation of serfs; transiberian railway);
• Into Manchuria from China, in the XIX century and until the 1920s (completion of the Peking‐Mukden railway in 1920
31
Agricultural and Neolithic Revolutions in the Mediterranean: Waves of Progress & Diffusion (slow and gradual)
• Agricultural revolution from the Fertile Crescent in the Middle East (9,000 years ago)…to the British Isles (5,000 years ago);
• Cultural diffusion hypotheses: knowledge and techniques are transferred to neighboring people;
• Demic diffusion hypothesis (Cavalli Sforza): agriculturalists migrate. Demographic growth generates migration waves into new empty or low‐density territories. The wave proceeded with an average speed of about1Km per year.
• Other possible case of demic diffusion: Bantu migration from the Camerun‐Nigeria line, through central and southern Africa.
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