POPULATION, CLIMATE AND
RESOURCE DYNAMICS IN THE
SAHEL
Benoit Kalasa
Director, Technical Division
UNFPA
Broad Trends
• >80 million population, growing at average rates of 3% per year
•
•
•
•
•
•
(ranging from 2.6% in Mauritania to 3.8% in Niger)
Wide disparities in population densities – Low densities observed in
most of the countries located to the north of the Sahel region is
explained by arid Sahara desert- populations are concentrated in the
southern parts.
Fertility levels among the highest in the World, with only modest
declines over the past 2 decades.
Substantial gains in terms of declines in mortality - however high
infant mortality contributes to rather low life expectancies (even by
African standards)
Substantial decline (and even reversals) in migration (even
seasonal) to the southern (coastal) parts of West Africa
Flows through North Africa to Europe have been sustained in spite of
the risks and restrictive policies.
Contribution of migration to the dynamics in the region remains
minimal.
Broad Trends Cont.
• Population is largely rural and dependent on agriculture,
animal husbandry and other primary sector activities
• However, high urban concentrations in The Gambia (57%),
Senegal (47%) and in Mauritania (41%)
• Rather high urban growth rates over the past 2 decades:
• Fueled by rural-urban migration and natural increase.
• Largely unplanned
• Not inclusive – proliferation of slum settlements, poverty,
insecurity and growth of the informal sector, and insufficient
urban infrastructure.
• Rapid urbanization resulted in increased pressure on the
natural resources and pollution which all have adverse
effects on the environment
Broad Trends: Current Age Structure
SAHEL1 2014
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
Female
35-39
Male
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10>14
5>9
0>4
10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000
0
2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000
Future Prospects
• The following slides present outcomes of the evolution of the
population of the Sahel during the next 50 years based on two
main scenarios of fertility trends:
• Sahel 1: Where current fertility remains constant
• Sahel 2: Where fertility in each country decline to half of
their current levels at the end of the projection period
• For both scenarios mortality is assumed to continue declining
while the impact of migration will remain insignificant.
Future Prospects
Figure 2: Population evolution -Sahel Region by scenario
450,000,000
400,000,000
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
2014
2020
2030
Sahel1
2040
Sahel2
2050
2060
Future Prospects
SAHEL2 2060
80+
75-79
SAHEL1 2060
70-74
80+
65-69
75-79
60-64
70-74
55-59
65-69
50-54
60-64
45-49
55-59
40-44
50-54
35-39
45-49
30-34
40-44
Female
25-29
35-39
Male
20-24
30-34
15-19
25-29
10>14
20-24
5>9
15-19
0>4
10>14
40,000,000
5>9
0>4
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
WALTPS prospects -1995
• The most striking development of the last thirty years has
been the rapid expansion of West African towns
• The proportion of town dwellers rose from only 13% in 1960
to 40% in 1990.
• Apart from the dramatic growth of a few major cities such
as Lagos, urban expansion has been relatively balanced.
• It has slowed down in the last ten years, but it seems
plausible that by 2020 the urbanization ratio will be close to
60%.
Innovative approaches: Regional
strategies for the Sahel
• Linking the dots or
• Addressing the disconnect between root causes
and Long term solutions
Innovative Approaches: The UN Integrated Strategy for
the Sahel: Governance, Security and Resilience (2012)
• Resilience as a requirement for good governance and peace;
• Strengthening Resilience = assisting Governments, communities
and households break the current vicious circle and to manage
and recover from crises and shocks more successfully, in order
to protect development gains.
1. Vulnerability Analysis
2. Social Protection, Safety Nets & Social Services
3. Risk Management
4. Livelihoods
5. Natural Resources Management, Climate Change & Water
6. Addressing population dynamics and its impact on resilience
mechanisms
Progress to date
• Implementation of the Ouagadougou Initiative - Family
Planning: Francophone West Africa on the Move:
• Targeted investments in family planning
• Recommendations for strengthening services, mobilizing political
commitment and resources, and coordinating actions
• […]
Sahel’s Women Empowerment and Demographic
Dividend Project (SWEDD) (2014)
• Population Dynamics as a means for developing community
resilience and sustainability of the future of the region.
• support improvements in the availability, affordability and utilization of
reproductive health commodities,
• strengthen data collection and analysis.
Goals
Improve Regional Demand for Reproductive, Maternal,
Neonatal, Child Health and Nutrition (RMNCHN) Services and
Increase Empowerment for Women and Adolescents
2. Strengthen Regional Capacity for Availability of RMNCHN
Commodities and Qualified Health Workers
3. Foster Commitment and Capacity for Policy Making and
Project Implementation
1.
Challenges
• Increasing urbanization may mean increasing constraints to
access to land within an environment where most livelihoods
depend on primary sector activities
• Ensure sustainable synergies between all implementing
agencies - Need for regional and multi-sectoral approaches
poses challenges for coordination as well as for generating
national and sectoral ownership and commitment to a shared
regional/multi-sectoral strategies;
• Social and political sensitivity of the project topics;
• Security deterioration;
Opportunities
• Demographic Dividend: In every scenario, children, youth and
adolescents will constitute the bulk of the population in all Sahel
countries
1. Investing in the health and adapted educational needs of youth and
adolescents needs to continue to be a priority - as laying groundwork
for future economic growth.
2. More attention should be given to job creation in both the public and
private sectors + to economic, legal and governance incentives for
investment in rural and urban areas
• Financial resources committed to the region: 1.5bn USD from the
World Bank, and new projects worth around 4bn USD announced by
the AfDB (Nov. 2013)