Daily
Base metals: volumes and open
interest
Looking at the interplay between open interest and traded volumes for the 6 LME
metals some interesting patterns emerge. Based purely on open interest, aluminium
occupies top spot coming in at 28 Mt, with copper and zinc vying for second and third
places on just over 10 Mt apiece. This is more or less in line with the respective sizes of
the underlying markets, though zinc seems to be punching above its weight, certainly
compared to copper, while lead is falling short with a roughly similar size market to that
of zinc. Nickel and tin are in 5th and 6th spots respectively as one might expect.
When you look purely at LME Select volumes, however, copper is in 1st position, with
aluminium 2nd, zinc 3rd, nickel 4th and lead 5th, and tin again in last place. Copper, while
half the size of aluminium in terms of annual supply and demand, has regularly seen
greater turnover than aluminium, with the metal seen as the most liquid and active
metal for participants to trade and a more obvious China trade. The major thing to
point out really is that nickel, which is a 2Mt/year market, has overtaken lead in terms
of daily turnover, in spite of lead being more like an 11 Mt/year market.
The chart below combines turnover and open interest and looks at LME Select turnover
as a percentage of Market Open Interest. This is where the most divergence occurs,
with copper the most active relative to its open interest and aluminium the least active.
Lead is in 2nd spot, followed by zinc, with nickel plummeting in recent weeks to barely
the same level as tin.
What this chart appears to be picking up, in the underlying market at least, is the level
of passive background activity related to inventory hedging/financing, compared to
the more speculative elements present in the market. The most active metals, by this
measure, e.g. copper and lead, have far more daily activity relative to open interest
than aluminium, tin and now nickel. This is likely due to the amount of aluminium and
nickel metal sitting around in LME warehouses, but also has implications as the effect
that speculators can have on those markets, especially where the rolling of positions is
concerned. Tin is still in a catch-22 situation where the market is too small to build a
significant position in, while volumes are too low to be able to build or indeed exit a
position in size at anything above glacial pace. Aluminium should really be a much
busier market, and we wonder to what extent the stock overhang and the dislocation
between the physical market and the LME cash price have served to deter the more
speculative elements of the market from getting involved.
By Leon Westgate
03/01/2014
This material is "non-independent
research". Non-independent
research is a "marketing
communication" as defined in the
UK FCA Handbook. It has not been
prepared in accordance with the full
legal requirements designed to
promote independence of research
and is not subject to any prohibition
on dealing ahead of the
dissemination of investment
research.
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
03/01/2012
Al
Source: Standard Bank Research; LME
Cu
03/01/2013
Pb
Ni
Sn
Commodities Strategist
Leon Westgate
[email protected]
+44-203-145-6822
Commodities Strategist
Melinda Moore
[email protected]
+44-203-145-6887
LME Select turnover as percentage of market OI (30-day MA)
0
03/01/2011
Commodities Strategist
Walter de Wet
[email protected]
+27-11-415-4176
Zn
www.standardbank.com/research
Global | Commodities
8 July 2014
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
8 July 2014
Base metals
After a slow start overnight, the base metals have sprung into life with decent buying
interest emerging at the start of London trading and again at the start of trading in the
US. Aluminium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc are all trading higher, though lead has been
left behind and is instead trading sideways. In terms of volumes, zinc is the busiest
metal in terms of LME Select turnover, though aluminium and lead have also seen
decent volumes build up. Copper turnover is pretty disappointing, with the metal in
third place behind zinc and aluminium heading into the afternoon.
Zinc has sailed through $2,300 propelled by fresh buying interest and what is likely a
degree of short covering interest. While lead has also traded higher too, and finally
appears to be getting some deserved upwards momentum, zinc is nevertheless trading
at a $90 premium to its more toxic cousin, the highest level in around 4 years.
Aluminium has traded up to $1,950 and the highest level in over a year, with the price
strength coming on the back of decent turnover too. Aluminium premia are also well
supported at the moment, with Q3 premiums for main Japanese ports reportedly
settling at $400-$408/mt, up 10% q/q.
Copper has been trading above $7,200 and is back around its March – pre China
domestic bond default – levels. While another 650 mt of metal entered Busan this
morning, outflows at New Orleans and Vlissingen saw headline stocks fall 1,300 mt.
Elsewhere, it seems that Freeport have agreed to agree to continue talking with the
Indonesian government on contract negotiations regarding concentrate exports from its
giant Grasberg mine, though this will be delayed by the forthcoming election on July
9th, while the country continues to issue veiled threats to PT Newmont after they had
the temerity to seek international arbitration to resolve a 6-month dispute that has put
a big dent in global copper concentrate availability. Quite how the situation is resolved
and the implications for further investment in Indonesia remain to be seen.
By Leon Westgate
Bulks
Chinese financial steels continued yesterday afternoon’s late rally, as expected, although
morning trading initially kicked off weaker on low volumes. As we have suggested for
the past week, the market has been forming a fresh base within current trading ranges,
as time adjusts further and further beyond the seasonally weak June destocking phase.
We still view fundamental fair value for 3Q IO prices in the $100-$105/t range,
destock/restock cycles notwithstanding. IO Swaps have risen today by c.$1.50/t in
response.
Shanghai Equities shifted up 0.2% to 2064 points, rallying from mid-morning into the
close, from intra-day lows of 2048. 5/6 of China’s listed developers reported stronger
June property sales, although average selling prices have dropped 6-8% m/m, and up
to 17% y/y to help these higher clearing rates. Vanke may be cutting prices by as much
as 10-20% in Hangzhou. Daily newspapers continue to talk of further interest rate cuts.
Shanghai 7-day interbank rates rose to only 3.56%, relatively light in view of the PBOC
selling RMB 20bn in 28-day repos at 4% and RMB 400bn in reserve requirement
payments by lenders due today. The POBC deputy governor suggested that China needs
to make more use of and attach more importance to its bankruptcy laws. Meanwhile the
PBOC Q2 quarterly report discussed the ongoing flexible use of monetary policy tools, a
change from its Q1 stance. The PBOC will auction RMB 50bn in 6-mth MOF deposits
on 15 July. China’s spot currency traded at 6.2020, while the PBOC reference rate was
set at 6.1626, the highest depreciation in 2-wks, amusingly with US-China economic
talks to begin later this week.
2
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
8 July 2014
Shanghai Rebar Futures Oct-14 contract closed up RMB 23/t at RMB 3,098/t, while
the Jan-15 contract closed up RMB 28/t at RMB 3,116/t. Dazong HRC July-14
futures shifted up RMB 19/t to RMB 3,310/t, while SHFE HRC Oct futures rose
RMB 18/t to RMB 3,312/t.
Among physical steels, Tangshan billet prices fell another RMB 10/t today back to preweekend levels of RMB 2,730/t, partly in reaction to yesterday’s negative financial
mood.
Rebar prices rose RMB 20/t in Shanghai but fell RMB 10/t in Beijing. Shente Steel
raised prices by RMB 10/t today in Shanghai, reflecting better construction weather
conditions. HRC prices remained flat again in Shanghai and Beijing.
Dalian Commodity Exchange IO active Sept-14 contract prices rose RMB 13/t to
RMB 720/t, while the Jan-15 contract lifted RMB 10/t to RMB 711/t. Among
physical iron ore, Vale tendered a Fe 64.34% Carajas IOCJ Aug-cargo for $104.23/t
(last: $104.48/t Fe 64.44% on 3 July – TSI @ $96.50/t). On globalORE, an MNP
(Fe 60%; Si 6.5%; Al 3%) July-cargo was purchased for $96/t, a second traded at
$96.50/t, with an Aug-cargo then trading at $96.50/t. As well, a Fe 58% Yandi Augcargo traded at $79.50/t and a PB fines Aug-shipment went through the screen at
$96.80/t. Cargoes of PB fines also traded at index + 30 cents-50 cents privately.
Shandong ports traded PB fines as high as RMB 645/t, while Fe 63% lump was trading
at RMB 770/t on CBMX.
The TSI Fe 62% China CFR price index rose 60 cents to $96.50/t (MTD: $95.72/t).
The Platts Fe 62% index rose back up 75 cents to $96/t, while the TSI Fe 58% index
lifted 10 cents to $80/t (MTD: $79.22/t). The Metal Bulletin Fe 62% index rose
$1.25/t to $96.51/t, while its Fe 58% index lifted 46 cents to $72.46/t. Argus Fe
62% index rose $1/t to $95.25/t. Mysteel Fe 62% rose $1/t to $96/t, while Fe 58%
also lifted $1/t to $78.50/t.
In IO supply news, Brazil shipped 29.4mt in June, up from 29.3mt in May, and the
highest run-rate for the year (loading 0.98mt a day). However, last year’s August alltime highs of 30.75mt have yet to be surpassed in 2014. So far in July, load rates have
been lower due to fresh maintenance work at Tubarao port. PDM is still yet to display
any y/y growth, despite expectations of shipping 118mt this year. Samarco shipped
2.47mt of pellets during June, up considerably from 1.7mt in May, as its new plant
comes on-stream. Western Desert Roper Bar is steadily ramping up to hit
0.25mt/month, after shipping 0.235mt via barges-to-capes in June from Bing Bong
port on Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria. Kimberley Metals has begun job cuts of 40 staff
at its Ridges IO mine near Kununurra, shipped via Wyndham Port, to assist margins in
light of recent price falls. Arcelor’s Liberian Yekepa mine unrest has concluded with
police assistance. LKAB is ready to begin mining at its new Leveaniemi open pit facility
in Sweden. Severstal has been granted a mining licence for its 12mtpa Putu project,
despite being on the company’s development backburner until a finance partner is
found.
The Baltic Exchange Cape index fell 3.2% to $12,451/day, with C3 falling 1.9% to
$21.545/t and C5 off 1.2% to $7.764/t. FFA Q3 capes are trading in the
$15,000/day range, down today.
For Q4:14 thermal coal prices, API 2 is trading at $75.40/t; API 4 is trading at
$73.10/t; while Newcastle is trading at $71.30t. Physical trading saw ARA July at
$70/t; Aug at $70.95/t and Sept at $73.75/t, in line with yesterday. The Market has
largely shrugged off news that Colombian Sintraime Union heavy machinery workers
(3,000) have voted to strike, impacting equipment engineering at the big 3 coal
producers, Drummond, Cerrejon and Glencore, in particular. This was offset by news
that Drummond’s 2nd ship loader (c.30mtpa) would be ready in mid-August, ahead of
3
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
8 July 2014
schedule, adding monthly capacity of 2.8-3mt. Overall Drummond expects to ship
25-26mt this year, compared to 20mt last year.
In other coal news, Coal of India expects to add 350mt of capacity from new projects
over the next 3 years, lifting total output to nearly 800mt by April 2017. Pakistan has
begun constructing 2 coal-fired power plants with a capacity of 2.64GW, with imports
to come from South Africa and Indonesia once completed. The first plant is due to begin
in early 2017.
Zhengzhou Futures Sept-14 thermal contract prices fell RMB 0.6/t to RMB 493/t,
while the Jan-15 contract fell RMB 2.4/t to RMB 511.4/t. Spot prices fell RMB 5/t in
GZ. Total port stocks rose 0.2% to 18.93mt, while GZ stocks fell 1% to 3.17mt, QHD
stocks rose 0.6% to 7.15mt, and Caofeidian stocks reached an all-time high of
6.44mt. Shanxi is to cut inspection fees by 20%. Shenhua has amended its July pricing,
with both spot and contract tonnes to be settled on the lowest BSPI print for the
month, while those with contracts will enjoy a RMB 5/t discount to take >90% of
contracted volumes and an RMB 8/t discount for taking >100% of contracted volumes,
to help clear its supplies. Meanwhile the miner continues to reduce railings into its
northern port to assist with price stabilisation. Spot coal is being offered at RMB 490/t
QHD FOB, pushing S.China CFR prices lower, with offers now at c.$68/t.
Premium Hard Coking Coal spot prices are trading in the $108-113/t Qld FOB range,
with China CFR prices ranging $118-123/t. On the Dalian Exchange, Sept-14 coke
price traded up RMB 2/t to RMB 1,117/t, while the Jan-15 contract was off RMB 5/t
to RMB 1,181/t. Among Dalian HCC prices, Sept-14 contract prices closed up
RMB 11/t to RMB 794/t, while the Jan-15 contract rose RMB 3/t to RMB 829/t.
By Melinda Moore
4
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
8 July 2014
Commodity data
Base Metals
LME 3 month
Open
Close
High
Low
Aluminium
Copper
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
1 920
7 156
2 175
19 400
22 725
2 234
1 924
7 140
2 193
19 330
22 675
2 263
1 936
7 160
2 203
19 435
22 770
2 266
1 911
7 080
2 171
19 090
22 641
2 218
LME inventory
Today
Yesterday
In
5 034 200
158 050
213 600
305 280
11 850
663 150
5 038 525
159 350
213 600
305 394
11 825
663 650
0
650
0
1 248
55
0
Open
13605
51000
22 725
Last
13635
50970
22 675
1d Change
35
-40
0
AM Fix
PM Fix
High bid
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
1 318.25
1 493.00
868.00
1 313.00
21.08
1 501.00
868.00
Forwards (%)
Gold
Silver
USD Libor
1 month
0.066
0.62
0.1525
Aluminium
Copper
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Shanghai 3-month
Aluminium
Copper
Zinc
Daily
change
4
-15
18
-70
-50
29
Change (%)
Cash Settle
Cash - 3m
1 894.00
7 120.50
2 161.00
19 180.00
22 710.00
2 247.00
Change in
cash settle
1
-39
5
-205
-70
11
0.21
-0.21
0.83
-0.36
-0.22
1.30
Out
One day
change
YTD change
(mt)
Cancelled
warrants
(%)
59
20
5
36
21
9
Contract
turnover
-423 875
-208 375
-850
43 644
2 165
-270 325
Cancelled
warrants
(mt)
2 963 275
31 075
11 600
108 876
2 470
59 200
4 325
1 950
0
1 362
30
500
-4 325
-1 300
0
-114
25
-500
COMEX
Ali Feb'14
Cu Feb'14
Open
326.1
Close
327.05
Change
0.95
Change (%)
0.29
Low offer
Closing bid
EFP's
1 320.85
21.21
1 505.63
869.00
1 311.65
20.83
1 488.75
861.10
1 319.69
21.05
1 493.00
868.00
Daily
change
-0.61
-0.07
-1.00
3.70
-0.9/-0.5
-2/0
+1.5/+3.5
+0.0/+1.0
2 months
0.072
0.616
0.1925
3 months
0.076
0.618
0.2336
6 months
0.094
0.612
0.3302
12 months
0.14
0.568
0.5562
30-day RSI
10-day MA
20-day MA
Resistance
1 321.50
21.08
1 492.01
853.20
1 305.88
20.60
1 473.03
839.77
200-day
MA
1 285.55
20.33
1 426.83
764.82
Support
57.73
63.89
57.19
62.88
100-day
MA
1 304.43
20.11
1 450.54
803.56
1 318.49
21.02
1 492.88
868.42
1 324.75
21.19
1 507.75
877.57
DGCX GLD
CBOT GLD
1320.8
1649
383
TOCOM
GLD
4326
90906
-11836
Precious metals
Technical Indicators
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Active Month Future
Settlement
Open Interest
Change in Open Interest
COMEX
GLD
1322
409130
14698
Energy
Energy futures pricing
Sing Gasoil ($/bbbl)
Gasoil 0.1% Rdam ($/mt)
NWE CIF jet ($/mt)
Singapore Kero ($/bbl)
3.5% Rdam barges ($/mt)
1% Fuel Oil FOB ($/mt)
Sing FO180 Cargo ($/mt)
Thermal coal
API2 (CIF ARA)
API4 (FOB RBCT)
COMEX SLV NYMEX PAL
21.145
159228
25941
874.55
42354
6016
NYMEX
PLAT
1495.6
71914
10880
1 month
120.283
891.5
969.24
119.785
576.043
615.22
604.782
Change
-0.44
-4.75
-2.07
-0.44
-5.37
-4.71
-4.92
2 month
120.358
894.5
965.28
119.898
575.968
610.74
604.176
Change
-0.58
-5.00
-3.32
-0.55
-4.96
-5.92
-5.02
3 month
120.534
898.25
966.69
120.094
574.563
609.58
603.021
Change
-0.62
-5.00
-3.60
-0.58
-4.50
-5.12
-4.89
6 month
120.531
903.75
969.72
120.391
570.159
598.03
600.376
Change
-0.55
-4.50
-4.62
-0.52
-3.96
-4.58
-4.12
Q3 14
74.50
73.85
Change
-0.50
-0.15
Q4 14
77.05
74.05
Change
-0.45
-0.20
Q1 15
78.65
75.25
Change
-0.35
-0.05
Cal 15
80.45
76.75
Change
-0.40
-0.10
Source: LME, COMEX, NYMEX, Bloomberg, Standard Bank Research
5
1317
11
-302
-31.75
6.00
-29.75
-80.00
-4.25
-6.75
164 077
105 968
39 439
52 401
9 715
133 225
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
8 July 2014
Commodity data (continued)
Bulks
Steel—Physical
Turkish Scrap 80:20 (Iskinderun CFR) $/t
China Tangshan Steel Billet $/t
China HRC export (Shanghai FOB) $/t
North Europe HRC domestic (ex-works) $/t
North America HRC domestic (Midwest FOB) $/t
Latest Price
360.08
448.00
514.00
410.00
663.00
1-day
-0.52%
0.22%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.15%
1-week
-0.94%
-1.54%
-0.19%
-2.38%
-1.92%
1-month
-3.94%
-6.08%
-1.15%
-5.75%
0.91%
3-month
-8.37%
-9.68%
-3.56%
-4.65%
-3.07%
6-month
1.58%
-10.22%
1.78%
-6.29%
5.24%
Steel—Futures
LME Billet Cash $/t
LME Billet Futures (1-mth) $/t
LME Steel Billet Stocks—change
Shanghai Rebar Futures (Active contract) $/t
Shanghai Rebar Futures On-Warrant Stocks—change
China Steel Inventory (million tonnes)
390.00
391.50
0.00
475.71
0.00
13.02
0.00%
-0.38%
7.25%
-1.17%
0.00%
-0.13%
6.78%
-6.98%
0.91%
0.64%
-10.63%
-25.87%
23.81%
24.29%
-10.26%
0.34%
173.68%
168.15%
-7.72%
-18.43%
Iron ore
China Iron Ore Fines (62% Fe; CFR Tianjin) $/t
China Iron Ore Fines (58% Fe; CFR Tianjin) $/t
SGX AsiaClear IO Swaps 62% Fe $/t (1-mth)
China Iron Ore Inventory (million tonnes)
95.90
80.00
95.25
107.01
1.80%
2.56%
0.14%
1.22%
1.70%
5.12%
1.13%
0.48%
-18.87%
-24.81%
-20.33%
3.06%
-27.07%
-34.48%
-27.46%
31.30%
-21.33%
-29.33%
-21.40%
47.87%
Coking coal
Premium Hard Coking Coal (Qld FOB) $/t
113.85
0.00%
-1.00%
1.43%
-15.07%
-17.50%
Capesize freight
Saldanha South Africa-Beilun China
15.00
0.00%
5.26%
-10.18%
-15.49%
11.11%
6.20
3.56
2064.02
0.01%
3.79%
0.67%
-0.61%
13.74%
1.65%
0.09%
0.00%
-1.63%
2.49%
3.49%
0.96%
1.11%
-3.78%
5.40%
Financials pricing
RMB Currency
China 7-day repo
API2 (CIF ARA)
Source: LME, Bloomberg, Standard Bank Research
6
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
08 July 2014
Disclaimer
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7
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
08 July 2014
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