CATENA-02280; No of Pages 16
Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Catena
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/catena
Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its
palaeohydrological implications
Andrei Panin ⁎, Ekaterina Matlakhova
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, Lengory 1, Moscow, 119991, Russia
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 13 March 2014
Received in revised form 16 August 2014
Accepted 22 August 2014
Available online xxxx
Keywords:
Hydroclimate
Extreme floods
Floodplain occupation by humans
Buried alluvial soils
Probability densities of radiocarbon and
luminescence dates
Caspian Sea level change
a b s t r a c t
A database containing 983 absolute ages of fluvial deposits was interpreted in palaeohydrological terms and 646
dates were found associated with 754 local palaeofluvial events – geomorphic or sedimentological traces of
changing fluvial activity. Combined probability density functions of high- and low-activity dates were used to
detect time intervals of different palaeohydrological status. After low fluvial activity during LGM, two
palaeohydrological epochs were designated: extremely high activity in the end of MIS 2 (ca. 18–11.7 ka before
CE 2000–b2k), and much lower activity in the Holocene. Within the Holocene, two hierarchical levels of
hydroclimatic variability were designated according to their duration and magnitude – regional
palaeohydrological phases (centuries to few millennia) and regional palaeofluvial episodes (decades to few centuries). Tendency is rather clear of activity lowering in the first half and rise in the second half of the Holocene.
Extremes within the palaeohydrological phases were designated as 19 palaeofluvial episodes: 7 high activity
HA-episodes, 8 low activity (stability) LA-episodes and 4 contrast, or complex, CA-episodes. In most cases changes of fluvial activity were most likely induced by changing amounts of spring snowmelt runoff. Most distinct correlation of temperature and hydrological regimes was found in the Late Holocene: high fluvial activity
corresponded to cold climatic phases (Little Ice Age), low activity, to warm phases (Medieval Climatic Optimum,
current climate warming). The suggested fluvial chronology was compared with independent hydroclimatic archives such as palaeosoils and lake levels. Correlation with soil formation/alluviation epochs was found very
close, with some exceptions in the Early Holocene. Correspondence of fluvial activity to the Caspian Sea level
changes is rather high in the second part of the Holocene and is poor before 4–5 ka b2k, which can be explained
by insufficient data behind both types of reconstructions. Correlation of changes in fluvial activity within a west–
east transect over Europe revealed relatively poor correlation in the Early and Mid Holocene and much higher
synchronism since 3.0 ka b2k, which may indicate increasing role of westerlies in controlling European climates
in the Late Holocene. Throughout the whole Holocene, changes of fluvial activity over EEP were governed by natural climate forcing until the last few centuries when land use changes induced accelerated hillslope and gully
erosion.
© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The use of statistical processing of bulked radiocarbon dates to analyze palaeoenvironmental and archaeological chronologies has been increasing considerably since its start in early 1970s in coincidence with
the exponential rise of yearly amount and total storage of absolute age
determinations (see overviews in Michczynska and Pazdur, 2004;
Williams, 2012). Application of this approach for uncovering of the Holocene palaeohydrological and fluvial activity extremes, since having
been proposed in early 1990s (Macklin and Lewin, 1993), has been
employed in a number of regions in western and central Europe
(Hoffmann et al., 2008; Macklin and Lewin, 2003; Starkel et al., 2006;
Thorndycraft and Benito, 2006) and Mediterranean north-west Africa
⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (A. Panin).
(Zielhofer and Faust, 2008; Zielhofer et al., 2008). Construction of
time-dependant age distributions evolved in its statistical techniques
from histograms of uncalibrated radiocarbon dates (Macklin and
Lewin, 1993) to cumulative frequency plots (Macklin and Lewin,
2003) and finally to probability density functions (PDFs) summed
over the arrays of classified dates (Johnstone et al., 2006). Along with radiocarbon chronologies, large arrays of OSL dates were used to establish
chronology of slopewash processes (Lang, 2003). General complaints
against using cumulative probability functions as a tool for constructing
fluvial chronologies stated recently by Chiverrell et al. (2011) were
responded to by Macklin et al. (2011). Additional statistical significance
tests for reliable interpretation of summed PDFs were proposed by
Macklin et al. (2012).
Due to the very strict filtering of available radiocarbon dates to select
those carrying palaeohydrological signals, the analyzed arrays were relatively small, typically several hundred dates against thousands dates
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
0341-8162/© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
2
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
used in archaeology (cf. to over 25,000 dates used by Peros et al. (2010)
to quantitatively analyze the Paleo-Indian chronologies in North
America). However, this statistical approach provided distinct advance
in establishing major flood episodes in a variety of European regions
and in studying fluvial responses to changes in land use and climate
(Hoffmann et al., 2008; Johnstone et al., 2006; Macklin et al., 2005;
Starkel et al., 2006) as well as in correlation of palaeohydrological chronologies over Europe (Macklin et al., 2006).
In the East European Plain (EEP), the easternmost part of Europe,
which constitutes some 40% of its area, several synthesizing studies of
fluvial chronology have been completed in the last decade. Epochs of
high fluvial activity, or alluviation, and epochs of fluvial stabilization in
the central EEP were distinguished in the Holocene from collections of
radiocarbon dates mainly from buried soils on river floodplains
(Alexandrovskiy and Alexandrovskaya, 2005; Alexandrovskiy and
Krenke, 2004; Sycheva, 2006, 2011). Cumulative PDFs were used to establish chronologies for the Holocene gully erosion in the southwestern Moscow Region (Panin et al., 2009) and for fluvial development
of the Upper Dnieper River and its tributaries (Panin et al., 2014). Nevertheless, these studies utilize only a small part of the total amount of numerical ages obtained from fluvial deposits over the whole EEP in the last
decades. Much of these data are dispersed over a large amount of publications many of them being difficult of access for scientific community.
This study is an attempt to collect available fluvial ages from EEP and
process them to construct fluvial chronology. We compiled published
radiocarbon and luminescence (presumably optical) ages from fluvial
deposits into a database, classified dates on palaeohydrological basis
and calculated summed PDFs for different classes. Peaks and troughs
on PD plots provided detection of short-term fluvial episodes and longer
millennium-scale phases of high and low fluvial activity. Age range of
dates presented in the database extends through the whole Late Quaternary. Given the rather poor contribution from ages older than LGM, we
limit the current study to the last 20 ka.
2. Regional settings
The East European Plain (EEP) is characterized by relatively uniform
topography with relief range from few tens of meters in flat lowlands
such as Polesia or Azov-Kuban, to 100–250 m in uplands – Valdai (the
highest elevation above sea level 343 m), Timan (353 m), Central
Russian (293 m), Volga (351 m), Dnieper (322 m), VolhynianPodolian (471 m), Obshchy Syrt (405 m), etc. Climate changes gradually
from sub-arctic in the north to temperate semi-arid in the south-east
and is followed by vegetation changing southwards from tundra at the
Barents sea coast to taiga, mixed and broad-leaf forests, forested
steppes, steppes and semi-deserts. In the southern part of EEP the gradient of humidity is directed to south-east, so that the south-west of EEP
(Moldavia, western Ukraine) belongs to broad-leaf forest zone with
temperate humid climate and the south-east (the Caspian Lowland) is
semi-arid with dry steppes (western Russian part) to arid with sand deserts (eastern Kazakhstan part).
Temperate continental climate of EEP is characterized by cold winter
with permanent snow cover and warm to hot summer when most precipitation is lost to evapotranspiration. The proportion of rain waters
contributing to annual runoff decreases from 20% to 30% in the north
to almost zero in the south-east while the proportion of snowmelt waters increases from N50% to almost 100% in the same direction. Modern
hydrological regime over the whole EEP includes two major phases
within the annual cycle: (1) high snowmelt flood in spring which constitutes from 50% (in the North) up to 90% (in the South) of annual runoff, and (2) low water season which begins from April (in the South) to
July (in the North) and lasts until the next spring. Summer and autumn
rainfed floods and winter thaw floods never reach magnitudes of spring
floods, with the exception of rivers flowing from the Western Caucasus
(the Kuban River catchment) and rivers in the very western part of EEP
(e.g. the Pripyat' River system). For the most part, sediment transport
and erosion/sedimentation activity is processed during spring floods.
Heavy downpours in the warm season that can cause high floods in
large catchments occur only in the westernmost part of EEP (NW Russia,
western Byelorussia, western Ukraine).
Physiographic uniformity favors similarity in hydrological response
to palaeoclimate changes. On the other hand, the great area, which totals
ca. 4 million km2, and coverage of contrasting climate and vegetation
zones, could have promoted individual features of paleohydrological
history in different parts of the territory. To account for possible spatial
specificity in hydrological responses, we first planned to construct individual fluvial chronologies for different parts of EEP. The territory was
subdivided into three latitudinal zones with trinomial partitioning of
each (western, central and eastern sections):
- Northern EEP: the White and Barents Sea catchments;
- Central EEP: the Baltic Sea catchment and the Caspian and Black Sea
catchments within the humid (forest zone) and semi-humid (forested steppe zone) climate – upper and middle reaches of the Dnieper,
Don and Volga River catchments;
- Southern EEP: the Caspian and Black Sea catchments within the
steppe zone – lower parts of the Dnieper, Don and Volga catchments
and lesser tributaries of the southern seas; the boundary with central EEP is the northern limit of typical steppes at about 47°N in
the south-west and 53°N in the south-east EEP.
After completion of the database it became clear that northern and
southern EEP are not supported by enough amounts of data to be processed separately. Nevertheless the above regional division was used to
investigate spatial distribution of designated fluvial episodes.
3. Methodology
3.1. Database compilation
We analyzed ca. 150 published sources to pick absolute dates on alluvial and associated (floodplain peats, slopewash loams within erosion
forms) deposits. After filtering out some 10% of unreliable dates, 1170 radiocarbon and luminescence dates were included into the database.
Inclusion of luminescence, presumably OSL, dates provides wider presentation of ages synchronous to high activity events as majority of radiocarbon dates rather bracket than give exact ages of such events. Each date
was supplied with basic information on geographic location, geomorphological position, catchment area (as classes divisible by 10), characteristics
of geological section and dated materials. Documented sections refer to
fluvial forms in a wide range of catchment sizes from b1 km2 to
120,000 km2 at lower Vychegda River and 410,000 km2 at lower Don
River. In the database catchment areas are presented as classes 0…6 at intervals with a 10-fold increment: 0–10°–…106 km2. The “zero class” (area
b1 km2) refers to gullies and small valleys with ephemeral flow that are
termed balka-valleys, or balkas (they have vegetated bottoms which distinguish them from arroyos, wadi and similar forms in arid regions).
Balkas in steppes have catchment areas in the range 10°–101 km2,
while catchments of the same size in the forest zone with humid climate
belong to valleys with perennial flow. Dates from colluvium were included into the database but not processed in palaeofluvial estimations.
Following the call of Chiverrell et al. (2011) upon more robust
testing of numerical ages from individual case studies before incorporating them into regional databases, we analyzed both geomorphological position and stratigraphical context of each date to assign it any
palaeohydrological meaning. Particular attention was given to dates
from archaeological sites that make a noticeable portion of all published
radiocarbon data from river valleys and therefore are unreasonable to
be ignored. In a number of previous studies such dates were excluded
from analysis to avoid biases generated by disturbance of sedimentary
context or by land use (Hoffmann et al., 2008; Macklin and Lewin,
2003). We did use the dates from archaeological sites but only those appropriate to sedimentological context, i.e. dates that give age of a
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
stratigraphic unit rather than age of human activity. Filtered out were all
dates on artifacts and dates from materials with clear evidence of
redeposition. Example is the world-known Late Palaeolithic site
Mamonovaya Kurya at the Usa River (north-eastern EEP) where bones
and artifacts found in terrace alluvium of channel facies are most probably redeposited by river bank erosion of a now-destructed ancient alluvial plain during terrace formation (Pavlov et al., 2001). On the other
hand, bones and bone charcoal at another Late Palaeolithic site of
Avdeevo at the Seim River are included into overbank alluvium and
refer to a period of long break in terrace inundation. Given the possibility for re-use of old bone materials by people, dates on this material
have been filtered and are now believed to represent different
phases of the site occupation (Sulerzhitskiy, 2004). Burial of the cultural horizon by Holocene alluvium indicates active flooding at the
site, which could not occur when the site was used for human settling. This makes ground for inclusion of the dates from the cultural
horizon into the database to represent the corresponding low-flood
period.
At the current stage we do not use dates from the EEP north-west
due to complicated history of young river-lake systems in recently glaciated regions where palaeohydrologic signals are difficult to discriminate from effects of river incision tendencies and post-glacial crust
movements. For example, alluvial–soil/peat sequences have been documented in a number of sections within low terrace of the Volkhov River
not far from its emptying into the Ladoga Lake indicating higher stages
of river floods in the Late Holocene (Sheetov et al., 2005). When
interpreting these dates we took into account the Mid Holocene transgression of the Ladoga Lake over its southern shores caused by tectonic
tilting due to glacio-isostatic rebound (Dolukhanov et al., 2010).
3
Therefore, high Late Holocene inundation levels in tributary valleys
might have exhibited rather the lake level history than changes of
river floods.
To limit the temporal coverage to the post-LGM time, only the dates
were included in further processing which central points after calibration were less than 20 ka BP. Total number of such dates is 983, of
which 943 dates are radiocarbon and 40 are luminescence dates. They
exhibit uneven geographic distribution: N 80% of dates are located in
central EEP (804 dates), b15% in northern EEP (136 dates) and b5% in
southern EEP (43 dates) (Fig. 1).
3.2. Indication of fluvial activity
Most of previous studies used primarily sedimentological indicators
of changing flood activity such as soils or peat horizons buried under
overbank alluvium. In the EEP many studies have been carried out of
palaeochannel dynamics exhibited in morphology of river floodplains.
This geomorphological indication makes a large volume of data that
may be interpreted in palaeohydrological terms: links may be suggested
between flood activity and channel morphology and dynamics. We
therefore use the term “palaeofluvial” that combines two interrelated
aspects – river palaeohydrology and river channel morphodynamics in
the past. The term “palaeofluvial event” implies both geomorphic
(channel avulsion, limited lateral migrations of a channel, etc.) and sedimentological phenomena (formation of floodplain soil, its burial) that
exhibit high or low fluvial activity. Local palaeofluvial event (LPE) is
the one proved by a single indicator in a given geological section.
When combining data at a regional scale both the accuracy of dating
techniques and the nature of applied indicators do not allow recognition
Fig. 1. Location of fluvial dates in the East European Plain. Filled circles are indexed dates (dates with assigned codes of palaeofluvial events and class of palaeofluvial activity), open circles –
dates without palaeohydrological interpretation but used together with indexed dates as the reference array for calculation of relative PDs.
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
4
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
of individual flood or no-flood events. Such meta-analysis is intended at
a probabilistic assessment of centennial-scale time intervals characterized by different fluvial status (high, low activity), which, after
(Macklin et al., 2012), are designated here as palaeofluvial episodes. Regional palaeofluvial episode (RPE) is a combination of nearly simultaneous LPEs occurring in a number of locations over a region.
The following indicators were used to group dates according to fluvial activity (S – sedimentological, G – geomorphological).
Indicators of low activity:
- sedimentological: organic horizons (soil, peat) in overbank alluvium, balka bottoms and gully fans;
- geomorphological: small palaeochannels;
Indicators of high activity:
- sedimentological: active sedimentation on river floodplains (burial
of organic horizons), balka bottoms and gully fans;
- geomorphological: erosion on floodplains, in bottoms of balkas and
gullies; river incision; big palaeochannels; chute cutoffs and channel
avulsions.
When interpreting sedimentary sequences in overbank alluvial sections two different mechanisms of changing sedimentation rates were
considered. First is changing hydrological regime – this is useful signal.
Second is lateral channel migrations that may cause river approaching
or moving away from the studied section and change rates of overbank
sedimentation. This is especially characteristic for sand-bed bedload rivers for whom usual is active migration over valley floor. Estimations of
recent floodplain sedimentation rates reveal their correlation to site position relative to rivers (Belyaev et al., 2013; Golosov, 2009; etc.). If a
given floodplain area is located far from active channel, sedimentation
may almost stop on high topographic elements such as levees, and
may be mostly organic (peat accumulation) within low elements –
inter-levee hollows, silted palaeochannels. Approaching of river may resume mineragenic sedimentation, and the closer the channel is, the
coarser overbank sediments are, which produces a coarsening-upward
sequence above buried soils or peats at river bank exposure. In such
cases dating the top of buried biogenic strata provides information of
river lateral movements (channel approach to the site) but does not
deal with any changes of flood height or other hydrological phenomena
– see example from the middle Vychegda River (northern EEP) described by Karmanov et al. (2013).
Variations of activity of erosion/sedimentation processes are
thought to have been governed mainly by changes in hydrological
regime and total amount of runoff. Two additional factors of changing
fluvial activity in the Holocene should be considered. Firstly, climatedriven vegetation changes could regulate conditions for erosion. However no evidence exists from the most part of EEP, except for the arid
south-east, of vegetation cover density changes in the Holocene that
would be relevant for erosion rates or river channel morphodynamics.
Secondly, human impact is known for promoting erosion/sedimentation activity. Due to low population density in the Holocene, anthropogenic factor in the EEP has been active only in the last millennium and
within only patchy areas in the Dnieper and Upper Volga regions. Initial
cultivation in the southern steppe regions occurred only from the 17th
until the early 20th centuries. Northern region in the Barents and
White Sea catchments is scarcely populated even today. Therefore we
find it reasonable to consider palaeofluvial (geomorphic, sedimentological) changes in the Holocene as having been associated with changing
amounts of surface runoff, particularly the height and duration of spring
floods (see Section 2 for comments on contemporary hydrological regime). This supports use of the term “palaeohydrological” along with
and even as some equivalent to the term “palaeofluvial”. The latter
will be used in relation to the direct sedimentological or geomorphological indications – “palaeofluvial events”, while the former will be used in
the context of hydroclimatic periodization – “palaeohydrological episodes, epochs, phases”.
3.3. Classification of dates
According to the above indicators, particular dates were indexed in
relation to corresponding LPEs as high activity dates (HA-dates) and
low activity dates (LA-dates). Stratigraphic position of dated samples
may differ in documented palaeofluvial signal. Two principal cases
may be marked out (Macklin and Lewin, 2003; Starkel et al., 2006;
Thorndycraft and Benito, 2006; etc.). Dates from mid-points of lithological units are synchronous to the LPE indicated by this unit; they are
termed event-dates (e-dates). Dates from stratigraphic contacts were
suggested to be referred to as change dates (Macklin and Lewin,
2003), or bracketing dates (Thorndycraft and Benito, 2006), that indicate transformation of fluvial regimes from stable to active and vice
versa. We follow this approach and term such dates as change-dates
(c-dates). However we believe that dates from stratigraphic contacts
carry information on both the overlying/underlying unit and the unit
the sample is from, i.e. on two LPEs. In the former case it is c-date, in
the latter case, e-date.
Change dates, according to their position at the top or in the bottom
of dated unit, are pre-dates (giving knowingly older ages) in relation to
an overlying unit and post-dates (giving knowingly younger ages) in relation to an underlying one. For example, a date from top of peat or soil
horizon buried under overbank alluvium is indexed as e-date for the period of low floods (end of this period) and as a pre-date for the
succeeding high-flood event. The offset between the date and the moment of burial is usually unknown but it is believed to be relatively
short and comparable to uncertainty interval of a date (several decades
to few centuries). In a few cases one date was indexed as post-date, edate and pre-date for three different LPEs. This is possible if the dated
unit is thin and is believed to have formed quickly. An example would
be a thin peat or gyttja horizon within actively accumulated overbank
alluvium: organic horizons indicate short stabilization events that
followed and preceded active alluviation events.
Of the total number of entries (983), 646 dates allowed
palaeohydrological interpretation and were indexed according to the
type of palaeofluvial events they refer to. Of the 646 indexed dates,
542 dates indicated one LPE, 100 dates, two LPEs and 4 dates, three
LPEs. In total they document 754 LPEs. About 50 dates refer to
slopewash processes at valley sides, but they were not counted as
LPEs and will be analyzed elsewhere. Distribution of indexed LPEs between geographic regions and corresponding catchment area is given
in Table 1 (see also Fig. 1). Only the central EEP that covers mainly the
upper and middle reaches of the Dnieper, Don and Volga catchments
had enough LPEs to provide reliable statistics – 732, while the northern
and southern zones gave 54 and 41 LPEs respectively, which is insufficient for separate processing. We therefore gave up separate treatment
of different parts of the territory in favor of joint processing of all data
complemented with further tracking of discovered RPEs to find their
presence in different regions and in catchments of different sizes.
3.4. Data processing
To sum probability density functions (PDFs) of individual dates we
used the online version of OxCal 4.2 program (Bronk Ramsey, 2009)
Table 1
Distribution of designated local palaeofluvial events (LPEs) by regions and catchment area.
Catchment area, km2
Northern EUP
Central EUP
Southern EUP
TOTAL
b10°
10°–101
101–102
102–103
103–104
104–105
105–106
Total
–
2
2
–
1
36
11
52 (6.9%)
111
109
8
61
163
196
13
661 (87.7%)
13
16
–
–
7
–
5
41 (5.4%)
124 (16.4%)
127 (16.8%)
10 (1.3%)
61 (8.1%)
171 (22.7%)
232 (30.8%)
29 (3.9%)
754 (100%)
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
and the IntCal13 calibration curve (Reimer et al., 2013). For OSL dates
we switched the option “Use BC/AD not BP” to “False” so that the program treated input OSL ages as calendar dates in “before present” rather
than in “BC/AD” format. Before input into OxCal, we checked that OSL
ages were represented as years before 1950 (most labs already report
OSL ages this way) and recalculated if necessary. In processing we
used the IntCal'13 calibration curve.
When combining all OSL and 14C dates in a united summing project
we found that the distribution tails extended to future dates by more
than 4 ka. All probability densities (PDs) beyond AD 1950 had constant
nonzero values of 0.06004. Integration over the whole interval with
nonzero PDs, which was made as the sum of individual PDs multiplied
by 5-year time increment between neighboring values, gave exactly
1025, i.e. the number of summed dates. It means that the right tail extending into the future was generated at the expense of the real
summed PDF. This tail accumulated up to 25% of the total summed
probability, which makes too large part to be ignored, though we
found that the PDF before AD 1950 was diminished proportionally to
its value, so it seems to be not crucial for application this PDF as the reference. As we did not encounter such a problem in our previous experience in processing combined datasets with the same OxCal version and
IntCal'09 curve (Panin et al., 2014), we decided to check if the overlongtail effect could be evoked by using the new calibration curve. We repeated the same combined OSL-14C project with IntCal'09 curve, but
the problem persisted. We decided therefore that the effect is datasetspecific.
To overcome this problem we processed OSL and 14C arrays separately with subsequent manual summing of their PDFs. OSL arrays that
contained dates from the last two millennia still demonstrated extending into the future when summed, but these tails were quite reasonable:
not so long, small values gradually decreasing to zero. It contained
b0.1% of the total summed probability and was therefore ignored (cut
away).
3.5. Timescale
The output from OxCal is either AD/BC (CE/BCE) or BP (years before
CE 1950) calendar scale. We used the latter and added 50 years to convert it to the b2k scale (years before CE 2000). The b2k scale was initially
suggested for Greenland ice core chronology (Rasmussen et al., 2006)
and is now being used increasingly in a variety of dating methods
(Walker et al., 2009). We find this scale convenient both for comparison
to AD/BC calendar scale, which has been used in many previous studies
on topic, and for correlation with global or hemispherical climatic
events revealed in Greenland ice isotopic records.
3.6. Interpretation of probability density plots
Theoretical analysis of the construction and interpretation of cumulative PDFs in palaeoenvironmental studies revealed a number of problems (Michczynska et al., 2003):
- Non-linearity of the radiocarbon timescale, i.e. the irregular shape of
calibration curve.
- Preferential sampling – taking samples from places of visible
sedimentation changes such as top and bottom of peat or soil layers,
which may produce overestimation of PDs at selected time
moments.
- Decreasing availability of older deposits, or taphonomical losses –
they are clearly evident from our dataset that demonstrates exponential decrease with time (Fig. 2a). Also decrease of the amount
of dates in the last 500 years is evident: PD values from the last
300 years are at the same level as that of the Early Holocene. This
may be explained by deliberate limitations of using radiometric
dating techniques when dealing with very young sediments –
“preferential unsampling” (cf. to the previous entry).
5
- Insufficient number of 14C dates in some time intervals, which
makes interpretation of PDF peaks and troughs unreliable.
To overcome the first three problems we followed the suggestion of
Hoffmann et al. (2008) and normalized summed PDFs of classified dates
(HA-dates, LA-dates) dividing them by summed PDF of the total set of
983 dates (Fig. 2a). The resulting relative PDFs (RPDFs) are believed to
be balanced in terms of presentation of different time intervals. Preferential sampling was also found to contribute to the shape of calibration
curve in producing high, narrow peaks of summed PDF (Michczynski
and Michczynska, 2006). The mechanism is that if the intervals of
more frequent sampling coincide with steep slope sections of the calibration curve, the corresponding peaks of PDF are significantly amplified. We found that normalization of PDF does not eliminate this effect
totally: high narrow peaks are still present in RPDF, which should be
accounted for when designating paleofluvial episodes on RPDF plots.
Concerning the last problem, Michczynska and Pazdur (2004) estimated the number of dates required for obtaining reliable PDF, i.e. the
one that is only slightly different from PDF constructed from admittedly
enough amount of dates. This number increases with the rise of standard deviation of dates. For mean uncertainty of calibrated ages of
115 years they estimate the minimum number of 200 dates required
for the time interval of 14 ka and the number of 785 dates required
for constructing reliable PDF for the same interval. Obviously the
number of dates is proportional to the width of the time interval. For a
1000-year interval the minimum number would be 14 dates and the reliable number, 56 dates. In our array mean uncertainty of radiocarbon
dates indexed with palaeofluvial codes (i.e. participating in PDF processing) is 119 years (626 dates totally). Inclusion of luminescence
dates raises mean uncertainty up to 142 years (646 dates totally). As
most luminescence dates are pre-Holocene or Early Holocene, mean uncertainties for the Middle and Late Holocene dates are of the same order
as in the test series by Michczynska and Pazdur (2004) and we therefore
can use their estimations of number of required dates. For the Early Holocene and pre-Holocene this number must be higher because of higher
values of uncertainties.
Time-dependent distribution of indexed dates from our collection,
i.e. the dates that were assigned palaeofluvial interpretation, is plotted
in Fig. 2b. Only low activity e-dates in the last 2 ka fit the criterion of reliability n ≥ 56 dates per millennium. Minimum number criterion of
n ≥ 14 dates per millennium is satisfied by low activity e-dates in the
last 9 ka and by high activity e-dates in the last 4 ka. Nevertheless, if
e-dates are combined with c-dates, then the HA-dates fit the minimum
number criterion for the last 6 ka and in selected intervals in the Late
Glacial, while combined pre-Holocene LA-dates older than 9 ka do not
fit this criterion in any interval. Based on these estimations, we decided
that acceptable results cannot be achieved separately from e-dates or cdates, but all types of dates should be combined when designating particular episodes. Also we realized that in the Holocene, reliable periodization may be extracted from PDF plots only in the last 4 ka. Any
division within the 4–9 ka interval would be less trustworthy. Periodization in the 9–12 ka interval would not be reliable and should be considered as tentative estimates. Available data are not enough at all for any
division of the pre-Holocene time. We use pre-Holocene PDF plots only
as a whole to make comparison of the Late Glacial to the Holocene in a
very general form.
Chiverrell et al. (2011) list a number of problems that undermine the
use of cumulative PDFs as hydroclimatic proxies. After the elucidation
by Macklin et al. (2011, 2012), some of these concerns are still relevant
for our study. Chiverrell et al. (2011) point that databases may incorporate differing interrelations relationships between the measured ages
and corresponding events, with variable temporal lags but all mixed together in the same analysis. Obviously, such mixing would decrease reliability of resulting cumulative distributions. To avoid it in our study we
construct individual PDFs for e-dates and c-dates (pre- and post-dates)
and analyze them separately to detect palaeohydrological variability.
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
6
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
Fig. 2. Time-dependent distribution of dates in the database. (a) Probability density plot for all dates, including indexed dates and dates without palaeofluvial interpretation. PDF of total
array of dates is used as the reference for normalization of indexed dates' PDFs. (b) Quantity of different types of indexed dates per 1000 years.
Relatively low peaks in e-date PDFs were interpreted as palaeohydrological episodes only in case if they were supported by bracketing
peaks of pre- and post-dates, or at least one of them. Few episodes not
documented by e-dates were designated solely from pre- and postdate PDFs, and their age was derived from bracketing peaks, usually as
the middle between them. Temporal resolution of such chronology excludes detection of individual fluvial events, but rather provides fluvial
variability at multi-centennial scale as pointed out by Macklin et al.
(2012).
Chiverrell et al. (2011) also proposed wider use of data on river/gully
aggradation and incision phases and palaeochannel development based
on models of reach-scale fluvial landform evolution. In our study this
suggestion is met by analysis of geomorphological indicators of
palaeofluvial change that complement traditionally used sedimentological indicators; see the list of applied indicators of fluvial activity in
Section 3.2.
4. Results
4.1. High and low activity probability density plots
PDF plots were constructed separately for all types of HA-dates and
LA-dates (Fig. 3). LPEs of both high and low activity are present within
all time intervals on the plot. Graphs exhibit rhythmic variations.
Peaks and troughs of high and low activities are generally opposite to
each other, which supports the periodization approach. Rhythmicity is
best expressed in the low activity graphs, which reflects to some extent
its better quality: 80% of its dates are e-dates. For the high activity series
the e-dates constitute only about a half of the total quantity. This makes
the temporal pattern not so clear and stresses the need to use both edates and c-dates for construction of periodization.
4.2. Palaeohydrological periodization
The succession of peaks and troughs on probability density graphs
was used to mark intervals of high and low fluvial activity. The complex
shape of PD graphs compels designation of a hierarchy of events. Three
hierarchical divisions were discerned: palaeohydrological episodes
(centennial scale), phases (millennial scale) and epochs (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) or considerable part of one).
High activity and low activity episodes (HA-episodes, LA-episodes)
were detected from the relative PD graphs (Fig. 3). To filter out insignificant or occasional peaks we analyzed both relative and absolute PD distributions and used the following criteria for selection:
1) The peak rises above the background by ≥ 0.1 in relative PDs by
≥ 0.01 year−1 in absolute PDs and it is not less than a centurywide at the base. It was experimentally found that together the latter
two conditions guarantee that the peak is formed from no less than
two age determinations; in case of doubt we checked it manually
with the database.
2) Dates that form the peak are found in not less than two distant locations, which demonstrates the non-local character of an event.
The majority of episodes correspond to a particular peak at the LA or
HA RPD graph. However not only e-dates but also c-dates (pre- and
post-dates) were taken into account when designating valuable peaks.
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
7
Fig. 3. Relative probability densities of high activity (a) and low activity (b) dates. Regional palaeofluvial episodes are marked by arrows and indexes: orange – high activity (H-events),
blue – low activity (L-events), green – complex activity (C-events). For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.
Few HA episodes were distinguished by pre- and post-dates only, which
is reasonable given the significant role that change dates play in detecting HA episodes: they make 46% of the total massif of HA dates against
only 14% in case of LA dates.
HA and LA episodes were detected as rises in corresponding relative
PD graphs of e-dates. Two types of such peaks were found. Most of HA
peaks corresponded to falls in LA graphs and vice versa. In few cases
rises of both HA and LA coincided, such as around 3000, 4500, 7500
and 9000 years b2k. Such episodes were separated into an individual
group as combined, or contrast activity episodes – CA-episodes.
Episodes are presented as approximate central points of centennialscale intervals. Rises in PD graphs have in many cases considerable
width and more than one peak. Possible reasons may be: (a) really
long duration of an episode and its complicated temporal pattern;
(b) short term episode which is presented by wide peak due to its
non-synchronism over the territory; (c) low accuracy of dates
documenting a single event and effects of the shape of calibration
curve and preferential sampling (see Section 3.6).
Palaeofluvial phases were distinguished in HA–LA difference and averaged graphs (Fig. 4). Averaging was made by moving window of a
500-year width. Averaging was produced not only by e-dates but by
total massifs of LA and HA dates including both e-dates and c-dates,
372 and 382 ages respectively. We did that first of all because of large
contribution of change dates into the HA massif. Non-inclusion of such
dates could lead to significant information losses. Complementing of averaged massifs by change dates produced additional smoothing of distributions especially in the HA graph, where some troughs became
blurred. As this blurring was probably caused by large time lags between the c-dates and indicated events, very likely longer than the averaging window in many cases, we were appealing to original PD
graphs when distinguishing the PH stages.
In the Holocene, difference between HA and LA PD is mostly negative, which reflects the higher availability of evidences of LA-episodes,
mostly buried organic horizons, for designation and being dated by radiocarbon, the more popular dating technique. Therefore simple numerical approach is not reasonable when distinguishing between HA
and LA hydroclimatic phases and episodes. Rather, we followed relative
oscillations of HA and LA graphs. However obvious is the prevalence of
HA indicators in pre-Holocene time after the Last Glacial Maximum
(LGM). This provides ground to distinguish the Holocene (0–11.7 ka
b2k) and post-LGM part of MIS 1 (11.7 – ca. 18 ka b2k) as separate
palaeohydrological epochs with significantly different hydrological
regimes.
4.3. Palaeofluvial episodes in terms of indicator types, geographic regions
and catchment size
The full list of designated epochs, phases and episodes is presented
in Table 2. Phases are numbered one by one so that odd numbers are always assigned to HA-phases and even numbers to LA-phases. HA- and
LA-episodes are identified separately within each phase. CA-episodes
as having both HA and LA features are numbered in the same order
with both HA- and LA-episodes. Totally, 19 palaeofluvial episodes
were detected in the Holocene, of which 7 are high activity, 8 are low activity and 4 are contrast, or combined, activity episodes. To evaluate the
reliability of detected episodes we analyzed their representation by
different types of indicators (sedimentological, geomorphological),
presence in different regions (northern, central, southern EEP) and
manifestation in catchments of different sizes. Intensity of particular episodes was estimated from the height of respective peaks in RPD plots.
Values in Table 2 were obtained as summed RPDs of all types of dates
(e-dates, pre-dates, and post-dates) that refer to each episode. For CAepisodes both high- and low-activity RPDs are presented.
In terms of indicator type, more than a half of all episodes are better
expressed by sedimentological indicators, some one third by both
indicators equally, and only a few where geomorphological indicators
dominate (for C-episode both high- and low-activity indicators were
considered). Half of C-episodes exhibit contrast pattern with high activity features demonstrated by geomorphic indicators and low activity –
by sedimentological ones (C3.4 – 3000 b2k, C4.2 – 4500 b2k). Probably
this may help to better understand the nature of these episodes.
All detected episodes are exhibited in the central EEP and only some
of them are found in northern or southern regions. When interpreting
this fact one should take into account that geographic distribution of
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
8
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
Fig. 4. Variations of high and low fluvial activity PDs and palaeohydrological phases in the Holocene. (a) Difference between high and low activity PDFs and the Holocene palaeofluvial
phases and events. Larger circles are the most pronounced events (cf. Table 2). (b) Moving window averages of high and low activity PDFs. Colored background marks the Holocene
palaeofluvial periodization: red (dark gray in printed version) are activity phases, blue (light gray) are stability phases. For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend,
the reader is referred to the web version of this article.
episodes is distorted due to the initial data lack both in the northern and
southern EEP. Therefore absence of particular episodes in the northern
or southern periphery of the plain may not provide sufficient evidence
as to their real geographic coverage. In this respect more interesting
are the episodes exhibited in all the regions, which probably represent
their real distribution over the whole EEP. Only one such episode is
found: L4.1 – 4000 b2k. Four episodes are found both in central and
southern EEP (L1.1 – 400 b2k, H1.2 – 600 b2k, L2.1 – 1300 b2k, H6.1 –
6200 b2k) and two episodes – in both central and northern EEP
(L6.4 – 8000 b2k, H7.2 – 10600 b2k). C-episodes demonstrate different
patterns: some are expressed only in central EEP (C3.2 – 3000 b2k);
others may exhibit different indicators in different regions. Nevertheless, all C-episodes are well represented in both high- and low-activity
indicators in the central EEP. This means that the complexity of these
episodes does not result from incomplete spatial coverage of data and
further additions to the database are unlikely to split these episodes
into separate high- and low-activity episodes in different regions.
When considering representation of palaeofluvial episodes in different catchment size classes, we account for low contribution from medium catchments (n × 101–n × 103 km2) that refer only to 9% of all
detected LPEs while small (b 101 km2) and big (n × 103–n × 106 km2)
catchments give 33% and 58% LPEs respectively (see Table 1). We will
therefore consider small and big catchments only. Most episodes are
represented in both size classes, except for the two oldest ones, which
may result from their weak evidence on the whole. Only few episodes
may be mentioned for their noticeably stronger presence in big catchments (L2.1 – 1300 b2k, L6.1 – 5700 b2k), and no episodes significantly
prevail in small catchments. It may indicate that generally the detected
palaeofluvial episodes acted over a wide range of catchment sizes and
were therefore likely to have resulted from spring runoff changes that
spread over large areas rather than from changes in storm magnitude
and frequency that, in terms of individual storm, cover only small
areas. However episodes C3.2 (3000 b2k) and C4.2 (4500 b2k) demonstrate a kind of asymmetry in activity classes by catchment size: high activity features are better expressed in small catchments while low
activity features concentrate in big catchment in the former and in
small-medium catchments in the latter case. This may indicate warm
period storms rather than spring snowmelt contributions for the occurrence of these episodes.
5. Discussion
5.1. General hydroclimatic tendencies in the post-LGM time
The constructed chronology for the indicators of high and low fluvial
activity demonstrates that not only thermal but also hydroclimatic regime had changed significantly in the EEP at the MIS 2/MIS 1 boundary.
Total amount of surface runoff in the Holocene was considerably lower
compared to that in the post-LGM part of MIS 2. The main indicator of
high river discharges between LGM and the onset of the Holocene is occurrence of large palaeochannels (macromeanders) found almost all
over the EEP (Panin et al., 1999) but dated predominantly in the central
EEP (Borisova et al., 2006; Panin et al., 2013; Sidorchuk et al., 2009,
2011; etc.). Another line of evidence comes from active gully erosion/
sedimentation in the end of the Late Pleniglacial (Bessudnov et al.,
2013). The whole set of dates permits dating of the onset of this high
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
9
Table 2
Magnitudes of the Holocene paleofluvial episodes in terms of indicator type, geographic regions and catchment size, expressed as relative probability densities (RPD) of associated eventand change-dates.
Phase, time (ka b2k)
0 (LA)
0–0.15
1 (HA)
0.15–0.9
2 (LA)
0.9–1.9
3 (HA)
1.9–3.5
4 (LA)
3.5–4.6
5 (HA)
4.6–5.5
6 (LA)
5.5–8.5
7 (HA?)
8.5–11.7
Episode
Indicators
Regions
Catchment sizes
Index
Central point
(years b2k)
Sed
Geo
N
C
S
Small
Medium
Big
H1.1
250
0.5
0.1
–
0.6
–
0.2
0.2
0.2
L1.1
H1.2
L2.1
400
600
1300
0.5
0.5
0.7
–
0.2
0.1
–
–
–
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
–
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.6
H3.1
2200
0.3
0.4
–
0.6
–
0.2
0.1
0.4
L3.1
С3.2
2500
3000
L4.1
4000
0.4
H–
L 0.5
0.7
–
H 0.4
L–
0.1
–
H–
L–
0.2
0.4
H 0.4
L 0.5
0.5
–
H–
L–
0.1
0.1
H 0.4
L 0.1
0.3
0.1
H–
L 0.1
–
0.2
H–
L 0.3
0.5
C4.2
4500
H5.1
5100
H 0.1
L 0.6
0.2
H 0.4
L–
0.1
H–
L 0.1
–
H 0.5
L 0.5
0.3
H–
L–
–
H 0.3
L 0.3
0.1
H 0.1
L 0.2
–
H 0.1
L 0.1
0.2
L6.1
5700
0.6
–
–
0.6
–
0.1
0.1
0.4
H6.1
L6.2
C6.3
6200
6600
7500
H7.2
L7.2
H7.3
10600
11200
11600
–
–
H–
L 0.3
0.3
H–
L 0.3
0.2
–
–
0.4
0.6
H 0.3
L 0.7
0.8
H 0.4
L 0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
H 0.2
L 0.2
0.7
H 0.2
L 0.1
0.1
–
–
–
0.1
H–
L 0.2
8000
9000
0.2
–
H 0.2
L 0.6
0.3
H 0.3
L 0.2
0.3
–
0.2
0.1
–
H 0.1
L–
L6.4
С7.1
0.3
0.6
H 0.3
L 0.4
0.8
H 0.2
L 0.4
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
H 0.2
L 0.6
0.4
H 0.3
L 0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
H 0.1
L–
–
–
–
H–
L–
–
–
–
Notes:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Marked in bold are the most pronounced episodes, which total RPD, i.e. RPDs summed by indicators, or regions, or catchment sizes, is not less than 0.7.
RPDs include both e-dates and c-dates linked to a particular event, which explains why total RPD of an event may principally exceed 1 (e.g., L6.4).
Catchment size: small – b101 km2, medium – 101 ÷ 103 km2, big – 103 ÷ 106 km2.
Abbreviations:
Palaeohydrological phases: LA – low fluvial activity, HA – high fluvial activity.
Palaeofluvial episodes: L – low fluvial activity, H – high fluvial activity, C – combined (or contrast) fluvial activity.
Indicators: Sed – sedimentological, Geo – Geomorphological.
Regions: C – central, N – northern, S – southern EEP.
runoff period at ca. 18 ka b2k. The PD graph for high activity dates exhibits two rises in pre-Holocene time (Fig. 3), but the overall number
of dates is too small still to construct any reliable division of this
epoch into phases and episodes. Also, there is no confidence in synchronism of these rises of fluvial activity over the whole EEP. At this stage we
can only certify the two palaeohydrological epochs characterized by
completely different states of hydrological systems – the post-LGM
part of MIS 2 (18–11.7 ka b2k) and the Holocene (11.7–0 ka b2k).
Considerable increase of runoff in the Late Glacial compared to the
Holocene established here by geomorphic and sedimentological indicators is corroborated by quantitative estimates of runoff layer from pollen data. Modern analogs of fossil floras extracted from peat and gyttja
infilling of a large palaeochannel of the Seim River (the middle Dnieper
River catchment) were used by Borisova et al. (2006) to estimate runoff
depth since 17 ka b2k. Annual runoff depth was estimated to some
300 mm in the interval 17–15 ka b2k and around 200 mm in
14–12 ka b2k, which is some 2.5 and 1.5 times greater than that at
present. Similar estimates for the Moskva River where the present-day
runoff is 235 mm/year provided palaeorunoff values in the range
300–450 mm/year, or 30–90% higher than that at present (Sidorchuk
et al., 2009). Palaeorunoff at 14.5 ka b2k was estimated at about
240 mm/year, which equals the present-day value, and 300 mm/year
in 13–14 ka b2k.
The Early Holocene until 8.5 ka b2k was formally marked as the high
activity phase (phase 7) because the HA–LA PD difference for this interval ranges between 0…+ 0.2, which is characteristic for high activity
phases in the Mid and Late Holocene (Fig. 4a). However the sum of
high- and low-activity RPDs is around 0.3 during much of this interval
(Fig. 3), which means that palaeohydrological interpretation was
assigned for only one third of all dates from that period. This is the Holocene lowest proportion of interpretable dates, which may indicate
some unusual conditions during that period. We assume phase 7 to be
the transitional period characterized by fluvial system relaxation after
extremely high runoff in the Late Glacial. Diminished Early Holocene
rivers developed within valley bottoms overwidened by migration of
Late Glacial macromeanders. Reorganization of river channels hindered
both sedimentological and geomorphological signals of changing hydrological regimes.
Palaeohydrological indicators become more clear by 8.5–9 ka b2k,
which may mean that fluvial systems became balanced with new
amounts of runoff: in the last 8.5–9 ka b2k the proportion of interpretable dates estimated as sum of HA and LA RPDs is 70–80% and higher
(Fig. 3). The Mid Holocene is the longest period of low fluvial activity
that lasted about 3 ka (8.5–5.5 ka b2k). A rise in fluvial activity began
after this. The last 5.5 ka exhibits contrast (at the Holocene scale) changes of high and low activity. Consequently, the Holocene may be divided
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
10
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
into three parts according to palaeofluvial activity: Early Holocene –
transitional period of fluvial system reorganization with obscure
palaeohydrological indication (PH phase 7, 11.7–8.5 ka b2k), Mid Holocene – the prolonged period of fluvial quietness (PH phase 6, 8.5–5.5 ka
b2k) and the second half of the Holocene since 5.5 ka BP with succession
of contrast high- and low-activity phases and overall tendency to growing peak activities.
These general tendencies correspond to earlier reconstructions of
climate humidity and runoff based on pollen data, especially that
concerning the Middle Holocene. Khotinskiy (1989) designates the
end of the Atlantic period in the Upper Volga Region as one of the driest
intervals in the Holocene. In the Volga River catchment, all pollen-based
estimations demonstrate lower than the present runoff values during
the Holocene thermal optimum in the Late Atlantic period 6–7 ka b2k,
which corresponds to the second half of our low activity phase 6. In
the middle Oka River catchment (the second largest tributary of
Volga) the estimated drop of runoff in the Late Atlantic ranges from 5–
10% (Vinnikov and Lemeshko, 1987) to 20–25% (Efimova, 1987;
Velichko et al., 1988). In the middle Seim River (the middle Dnieper
River catchment) modern analogs of palaeofloras provide the
palaeorunoff estimate of 90 mm/year in the Late Atlantic, which is
30% less than the present-day value of 125 mm/year and 30–45% less
than runoff estimates for the earlier Holocene intervals (Borisova
et al., 2006).
5.2. Comparison to palaeosoil chronologies
Most advanced in the region are palaeopedological schemes constructed from radiocarbon dating of buried floodplain and balka
(small dry valley) bottom soils. In the Upper Volga and Oka basins,
Alexandrovskiy (Alexandrovskiy and Alexandrovskaya, 2005;
Alexandrovskiy and Krenke, 2004) distinguished 6 Holocene soilforming phases, S-Phases, alternating with 5 phases of intensive
alluvial sedimentation, A-phases (Fig. 5d). Sycheva (2006) used ca.
120 dates on buried soils and ca. 40 dates on alluvium to distinguish 7
pedogenic Pd-phases and 5 lithogenic L-phases in the middle sector of
the EEP between 47 and 58°N (Fig. 5e). Datasets used in both studies
widely intersect with one another; hence the designated phases are
very similar. Most of these dates were included also in our database
and thus participate in construction of our scheme. Therefore good conformity of all the chronologies is predestined by using common data for
their construction. However the new chronology proposed here is
founded on a wider sedimentological and geomorphological basis.
Therefore we find it worthwhile to compare it to the palaeopedological
chronology, given that soil-forming phases have been widely used as a
chronological instrument in palaeoclimate, palaeogeomorphological,
archaeological and other kinds of research in the EEP.
The scheme suggested in this study is least similar to
palaeopedological schemes in the Early Holocene. Our transitional
phase 7 corresponds mostly to stability phases Pd-6 and S-6 in the
above studies. In the above, we already stressed that definite
palaeohydrological interpretation of this period is hindered by its transitional nature, strong reorganization of fluvial systems. Probably,
palaeopedological data give reasons for treating this period rather as
low-activity than high-activity phase. On the other hand, stability
phases Pd-6 and S-6 are grounded on very few dates from Early Holocene buried soils and thus have limited reliability. Also, HA- and CAepisodes within our phase 7 correlate well with sedimentation phases
of Alexandrovskiy and Sycheva: H7.3 and H7.2 episodes (11,600 and
10,700 b2k) together correspond to L-6, and C7.1 episode (9000 b2k)
with rather distinct high-activity signal (Table 2) corresponds to phases
A-5 and L-5. Probably, it would be reasonable to divide phase 7 into several HA- and LA-phases, but we avoid doing it at the current state of our
understanding of this period as it is based on too limited data.
In the Mid and Late Holocene, there is much correspondence between all schemes. Our LA-phase 6 corresponds to soil-forming stability
phases 4 and 5. In the interval 7000–7500, the soil-forming phases are
divided by the active sedimentation phase A-5, or L-5. Most probably
it corresponds to our combined-activity episode C6.3 (7400 b2k).
High-activity episode H6.1 (6200 b2k) is not reflected in
paleopedological schemes. HA-phase 6 with HA-episode H5.1
(5100 b2k) is equivalent to sedimentation phases A-3 and L-3.
Also, LA-phase 4 corresponds distinctly to soil-forming phases S-3
and Pd-3. Probably, the combined episode C4.2 (4500 b2k) that occurred in the very beginning of this phase reflects the transitional nature of this time or non-synchronous shift to low flood activity over
the territory. Given that, there is an alternative to link this episode to
the previous active phase thus extending it 4300–4400 b2k.
Soil-forming phase 3 in its both variants (S-3, Pd-3) extends to ages
younger than 3000 b2k and overlaps with our HA-phase 3 and its
combined episode C3.2 (3000 b2k). We find it reasonable to link this episode along with the whole phase 3 to sedimentation phase 2 in
palaeopedological schemes. Sedimentation phase 2 (A-2, L-2) in these
schemes is only 500 years long, which is three times as short as our
HA-phase 3. Probably this is because more comprehensive account for
high-activity markers while paleopedological schemes base mostly
on dating of buried soils. Activity phase A-2/L-2 is dated around
2500 b2k. In our scheme, concurrent to it is the low activity episode
L3.1 (2500 b2k) and the highest activity occurs few centuries later –
episode H3.1 (2200 b2k). This high-activity episode overlaps with
the very beginning of the next soil-forming phase, which starts
some earlier than the corresponding stability phase 2 in our scheme.
Dynamics during the Current Era is much similar in all schemes. The
1st Millennium CE belongs to soil-forming phase S-2/Pd-2 and lowactivity phase 2, which is one of the most pronounced stability phases
in the Holocene. Phase 2 starts later than the corresponding phase S2/Pd-2 (2000 vs. 2300–2400 b2k), but ends within the same interval
between 800 and 1000 b2k. In the last Millennium palaeopedological
schemes distinguish one phase of intensive sedimentation between
500 and 900 b2k followed by the contemporary soil formation phase.
In our scheme this activity phase is longer and has more complicated
temporal pattern. It consists of two high activity episodes at 600 b2k
(H1.2) and 250 b2k (H1.1) separated by a low activity episode at
400 b2k (L1.2). In the study of the Late Holocene pedological–
sedimentological rhythms during MCO-LIA, Sycheva (2011) distinguishes the weak pedogenic phase on floodplains in the 17th c. AD,
which is equivalent to our low activity episode L1.1 (400 b2k). The contemporary stability phase reflected in the overall blanketing of floodplains by surficial alluvial-type soil, is probably rather short and
covers the last one–two centuries only. Its chronology cannot be
established by direct 14C or OSL dating because of too young ages, but
it follows from the properties of surficial floodplain soils and historical
sources.
The above comparison shows that our scheme is rather similar to
existing palaeopedological schemes in low activity, or soil-forming,
phases. It reflects both intersection of the data used and better availability evidences of low flood evidences (buried soils, peats) for dating. In
high-activity phases differences exist both in duration of phases and in
timing of peak events. These dissimilarities come presumably from
much higher abundance of activity dates involved in our study
Fig. 5. Correlation between different hydroclimatic phenomena in the East European Plain. Palaeofluvial activity (this study): a, b – RPDs of high and low fluvial activity indicators,
c – palaeohydrological phases and events; larger circles are most pronounced events (cf. Table 2). Soil forming, or pedogenic, and alluviation, or lithogenic, phases: d – after
Alexandrovskiy and Krenke (2004), Alexandrovskiy and Alexandrovskaya (2005); e – after Sycheva (2006). Lake level changes: f – lake level status in the Upper Volga River basin
(after Tarasov et al., 1997); g – the Caspian Sea level changes through the Holocene (after Kroonenberg et al., 2008; Rychagov, 1997a) and freshening phases in the Southern Caspian
Basin (after Leroy et al. (2007)); h – the Caspian Sea level changes in the last millennium (after Naderi Beni et al. (2013) and Rychagov (1997b); since 1837 – instrumental measurements).
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
11
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
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A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
compared to studies of palaeopedologists. Comparison reveals also that
our C-episodes that exhibit a mixture of high- and low-activity phenomena correspond rather to active sedimentation than to stability
soil-forming phases in paleosoil stratigraphy. Probably this is due to
non-synchronism of activity and stability phases in different regions
that could lead to combining both types of evidences in the same time
interval. More data is needed to construct individual regional schemes
that would separate activity and stability signals more definitely.
5.3. Comparison with lake level data
The only systematic data on lake levels from the central EUP exist for
the Upper Volga region. These data are collected by Tarasov et al. (1997)
and presented at an increment of 500 14C years as percentage of lakes
with different level status: high, medium and low. We transformed
the 14C intervals into the calendar scale using IntCal13 and then to
the b2k scale (Fig. 5f). Lake levels demonstrate the overall tendencies
that in very general resemble the Holocene tendencies of fluvial activity
changes. Lakes have the highest status in the Early Holocene, then drop
to the lowest status in the Mid Holocene and then rise by the Late Holocene. Nevertheless, the particular fluvial extremes are either not presented or not coinciding to that in the lake level graph. The Holocene
lowest lake level status is expected to occur within the Holocenelongest period of fluvial activity – phase 6 (5500–8500 b2k), but it is
shifted to younger ages and becomes synchronous to the high-activity
phase 5 around 5000 b2k. This discrepancy may be caused by relatively
low precision of lake level chronology that was established mostly from
interpretation of pollen diagrams with rather low participation of radiocarbon dating. Sharp fluvial changes in the last 2000 years are not
reflected in lake level data. The reason comes probably from the open
character of all lakes in this humid-climate region, which makes them
less sensitive to relatively short climate variations. Nevertheless, the
Holocene-long tendencies are exhibited in lake level data quite
distinctly.
More relevant data exist on level fluctuations of the Caspian Sea
(CS), which is a closed lake and thus it is more sensitive to the water balance changes. Instrumental observation data prove that the CS level
changes are governed mostly by cumulative effect from variations
of the Volga River runoff (Arpe and Leroy, 2007; Mikhailov and
Povalishnikova, 1998). Therefore the CS level behavior is the proxy for
runoff changes within the central EUP where the Volga River receives
the most part of its waters. We used the CS level history reconstructions
by Rychagov (1997a) and Kroonenberg et al. (2007, 2008) and designation of the CS freshening phases made by Leroy et al. (2007) (Fig. 5g).
For the last millennium we referred to reconstructions based on historical data (Naderi Beni et al., 2013; Rychagov, 1997b) (Fig. 5h).
When comparing terrestrial and marine records one should account
for difficulties in calibration of radiocarbon dates obtained from marine
carbonates. Different researches prefer either using uncalibrated radiocarbon timescale or applying correction procedures, which may be dissimilar in different cases. Graphs in Rychagov (1997a) and Kroonenberg
et al. (2008) are presented in uncalibrated 14C years. To present in the
b2k timescale we first digitized and calibrated their critical points.
Both curves are based on dates from shells; therefore the challenge is
which calibration curve should be taken. Rychagov's dates are conventional dates without correction for isotope fractioning. Given their
δ13C values around zero and the reservoir effect for the CS about
300–400 years, Karpytchev (1993) proposed for such dates that corrections for isotope fractioning (adding ~400 years) and for reservoir effect
(subtracting 300–400 years) closely compensating each other. Hence
we calibrated the Rychagov's curve using the terrestrial calibration set
IntCal13. The CS level curve by Kroonenberg et al. (2008) is based on
AMS dates on in situ shells. Given that AMS dates automatically include
the δ13C correction, we calibrated this set using the Marine13 curve, for
which offsetting from the IntCal13 curve depends on time but is usually
in the range 300–400 years. After calibration we added 50 years to shift
to the b2k scale. Leroy et al. (2007) dated bulk carbonates and in their
correction to measured 14C activities accounted for both the difference
in 14C content in the atmosphere and in surficial waters (analog for the
reservoir effect correction) the proportion of detrital and authigenic
fractions of carbonate assuming zero 14C activity for the former. Together both corrections gave the 800–900-year shift to younger ages.
Karpytchev (1993) estimated for shelf carbonates even greater
±100 years. Evidently, several hundred years may be a real estimate
for precision of dates obtained from bulk carbonates.
The first half of the Holocene exhibits poor similarity between the CS
levels and fluvial activity data. Occurrence of the deep Mangyshlak regression at the onset of the Holocene (Fig. 5g) is a bit contradictory to
the high lake level status in the Upper Volga region (Fig. 5f) and high
fluvial activity and active sedimentation episodes over the central EUP
(Fig. 5a–c). Probably this is due to the transitional character of the
Early Holocene fluvial and lacustrine system development when traces
of high activity are rather due to reorganization of geomorphic systems
than to higher amounts of runoff. The Holocene highest levels at
the highest stage of the Novo-Caspian transgression, according to
Rychagov (1997a), fall into the Holocene-longest phase of low fluvial
activity (phase 6) but can be correlated to high activity episodes within
this phase – C6.3 (7500 b2k) and H6.1 (6200 b2k). The high-activity
phase 5 is not reflected in the CS level reconstructions both by
Rychagov (1997a) and by Kroonenberg et al. (2008).
Much more similarities exist in the second half of the Holocene. The
CS lowstand around 4000 b2k corresponds to the fluvial stability phase
4. Fluvial activity phase 3 correlates to highstands in both Rychagov's
and Kroonenberg's curves. Nevertheless, the timing of the peak stages
differs greatly: the highest levels occur at 3000–3500 b2k according
to Rychagov (1997a) and between 2000 and 2500 according to
Kroonenberg et al. (2008), the latter being synchronous to our high activity episode H3.2 (2200 b2k). We consider the Kroonenberg's dating
more reliable as it is based on ages from in situ shells and the number
of dates is much greater. In their other paper Kroonenberg et al.
(2007) propose that the highstand was reached around 2600 BP and
continued until 2200 BP. Nevertheless the calibrated dates convince
that at 2600 BP the sea level was below −27 m and all dates on samples
above − 25 m lie within the range 2000–2300 BP (see Table 1 in
Kroonenberg et al., 2007).
The next low fluvial activity Phase 2 corresponds to the so called
Derbent regression of the CS. According to Rychagov (1997a,b) the lowest levels were reached around the 8th c. AD, or 1300 b2k. In the
Kroonenberg's curve this minimum is much lower and extends into
the 10th c. AD, 900–1000 b2k. This looks too late given the majority of
the CS level reconstructions. If the reservoir effect not accounted for,
this minimum would be some 400 years earlier, which corresponds better to other reconstructions and to the fluvial activity data (low activity
episode L2.1, 1300 b2k). Probably, this reflects some uncertainties in radiocarbon calibration (see discussion in the above).
Leroy et al. (2007) used palynological and dinoflagellate data to reconstruct the Caspian Sea salinity changes and deduce the changes of
river inflow into the Caspian Sea. They found two phases of lesser salinity and stronger river inflow in the second half of the Holocene: the
major phase started before 5.45 and ended by 3.9 cal ka BP (N 5500–
3950 b2k), and the second phase, less important and shorter, occurred
at ca. 2.1–1.7 cal. ka BP (2150–1750 b2k). Leroy et al. (2007) assume
some contribution from the Uzboy River into the first freshening
phase, but they also account that the reliable chronology for the
Uzboy flowing into the Caspian Sea has not been established yet. Therefore one could propose that the Volga River runoff was the major source
of freshwater in the second half of the Holocene like it does now. The
N5500–3950 b2k high river inflow and sea freshening phase correlates
well with our activity phase 3 (5500–4600 b2k), which is missed in
the CS palaeolevel data (Fig. 5g). The freshening phase extends also
into the stability phase 4 (4600–3500 b2k) and ends around our low activity episode L4.1 (4000 b2k). The second freshening phase starts close
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
to our HA-episode H3.1 (2200 b2k) and extends a little into the fluvial
stability phase 2. Given the uncertainties with dating bulk carbonates
discussed in the above we consider the coincidence of both freshening
phases with periods of high fluvial activity quite satisfactory.
For the last millennium we could compare our results to historicalbased reconstructions of the CS level that are devoid of calibration problems (Fig. 5h). After the Derbent regression, Rychagov (1997b) distinguishes two highstands in 14th–early 15th and in 17th–18th centuries
separated by a lowstand in the 16th century. Similar phases are proposed in the recent paper by Naderi Beni et al. (2013), but their peals
are significantly higher and the first highstand occurs some earlier, at
the 13th–14th century boundary (Fig. 5h). Both highstands may be correlated to our high activity episodes H1.2 (600 b2k) and H1.1 (250 b2k),
the lowstand – to the low activity episode L1.1 (400 b2k). One can conclude that in the last millennium the reconstructed CS palaeolevel history is closely connected to the fluvial history over the sea catchment.
The above comparison reveals rather good similarity between the
terrestrial fluvial phases, that may be interpreted in terms of changing
amounts of river runoff, and the level changes in a closed lake that integrates water balance of the large part of EUP. Both activity/stability
phases and transgression/regression cycles of the CS exhibit similar successions that are synchronized rather well. The lack of coincidence between phases of fluvial activity and the corresponding level change/
water freshening phases of the CS may occur because of the uncertainties in calibration of radiocarbon dates on marine carbonates. Similarity is much poorer in the first half of the Holocene. It reflects either
the lower level of our knowledge of both marine and terrestrial dynamics, or our underestimation of real complexity of water balance formation in the past, or both. In either case, this is a challenge for for
further study.
5.4. Comparison with palaeofluvial data from central and western Europe
Holocene hydroclimates of European mid-latitudes from the British
Isles to Urals were to a great extent governed by common climatic
mechanisms generated in North Atlantics, such as frequency and
power of cyclones, tracks and intensity of westerly winds and competition between latitudinal and meridional types of atmospheric circulation. However the vast, some 4000 km, latitudinal expanse of the
territory and eastward rise of climate continentality could have promoted existence of regional hydroclimatic differences. Analysis of west–east
hydroclimate correspondence in Europe in the Holocene would contribute better understanding of changing atmospheric circulation patterns.
To achieve it we compared our results from EEP to the published data on
the Holocene river flooding from Great Britain, Germany and Poland derived by similar procedures (Fig. 6). For the Great Britain and Poland we
used the PDFs initially obtained from regional palaeofluvial databases
by Johnstone et al. (2006) and Starkel et al. (2006) and then corrected
for the form of calibration curve by Macklin et al. (2006). These curves
were produced from change dates and therefore they represent the occurrence of major flooding episodes in the form “event after”, i.e. peaks
of PDFs are somewhat older than peaks of corresponding flooding episodes. For Germany we used the relative PDFs on activity and stability
dates from Hoffmann et al. (2008). In this case both activity and stability
PDFs are contemporaneous to corresponding episodes, which is similar
to the PDFs from EEP. We accounted for different chronological relationships between PDFs and dated episodes when making correlations.
The four regional fluvial activity curves are shown in Fig. 6 in identical timescale and positioned west to east to make spatial correlations
more convenient. Two of the four regional fluvial scales contain separate indication of high and low fluvial activity (Germany), or activity
and stability (EEP). In British and Polish schemes low activity/stability
episodes may be deciphered indirectly as troughs of the activity curves.
In the combined plot (Fig. 6), none of the high/low activity phases and
only few fluvial episodes in the EEP demonstrate strict correspondence
with other European regions. Probably it reflects both complex
13
temporal pattern of palaeohydrological changes over Europe and differences in methods of construction of fluvial activity schemes and lack of
their precision and reliability. However a number of time spans 0.2–
0.4 ka long may be identified that exhibit equal mode of fluvial activity,
high or low, on two or more adjoining curves. Below we refer to central
points of identified time spans rounded to 0.1 ka.
All four regions, i.e. the whole Europe from west to east, demonstrate high fluvial activity at 0.8, 2.0 and 2.9 ka, and low activity at 1.2,
1.7, 6.6 and 7.9 ka b2k. Several episodes were found limited within eastern-central Europe: high activity at 5.1 and 6.3 ka, and low activity at
2.5, 4.2 and 5.6 ka b2k. High activity episode at 5.7 ka and low activity
episode at 9.5 ka b2k occurred only in west-central Europe. Of the
phases identified in EEP most universal for the whole Europe are the
Late Holocene phases 1–3.
In western and central Europe, rise of fluvial activity in the beginning
of the EEP HA phase 1 started 1.1–1.2 ka b2k, some earlier than in EEP
(0.9 ka b2k), and may have finished also earlier. On the graphs from
Britain and Poland, fluvial activity dropped at 0.5 ka b2k, much earlier
than in EEP (0.15 ka b2k). However this early drop may be due to “preferential unsampling” of young sediments in the databases for Britain
and Poland. In Germany this effect is not found (Fig. 6c).
LA phase 2 is the most uniform LA phase in EEP and in Germany in
that it is not complicated by HA episodes, but in Germany stability
phase ends earlier than in EEP – 1.2 and 0.9 ka b2k respectively. In
Poland and in Britain this phase is interrupted by non-synchronous
HA episodes.
HA phase 3 contains two spans at 2.0 and 2.9 ka b2k which may be
identified as European-wide high activity episodes. The low activity episode at 2.5 ka b2k is detected in EEP, Poland and Germany but not in
Britain. Earlier in the Holocene, the European-wide palaeohydrological
episodes are found only within the EEP LA phase 6. These are the two
low activity episodes at 6.6 and 7.9 ka b2k. In many cases different regions demonstrate asynchronous or out of phase palaeohydrological
changes.
5.5. Role of human impact in the changes of hydrological regime and fluvial
activity
Interpretation of increased river overbank sedimentation in central
EEP in the last millennium as the result of anthropogenic impact
through land use change is commonly used in Russian literature
(Kurbanova, 1997; Markelov et al., 2012; Perevoschikov, 2007, etc.).
Sycheva (2011) associates the increased inundation of floodplains and
rise of overbank sedimentation rates with climatic conditions of Little
Ice Age. However she suggests that deforestation and land cultivation
and corresponding acceleration of erosion were responsible for high
thickness of overbank alluvium of the last millennium and its particular
features such as clear lamination and higher sand/silt ratio.
In our study, both sedimentological and geomorphic traces of increased fluvial activity in the beginning of the second millennium CE
(start of high activity phase 2 – 900 b2k, episode H1.2 – 600 b2k)
were found over vast areas in the central and southern EEP, either populated or uninhabited (Table 2; see also the end of Section 3.2 for brief
occupation history of EEP). Consistent spread of occupation area and increase of population density since the beginning of Slavonic colonization of EEP in the 9th-10th centuries were not followed by constant
rise of fluvial activity but rather were accompanied by variations of
both sedimentation rates and geomorphic activity (phases 1 and 1 in
Table 2). These data support rather climatic than human origin of the
increased overbank sedimentation in river floodplains in the last
millennium.
Erosion in small catchments demonstrates higher sensitivity to land
use changes: in the test area in the south-west Moscow Region, increased erosion rates in old gullies are found in the last 400–50 years,
which coincides with establishment of permanent settlements and
rise of population density in the area (Panin et al., 2009). However,
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
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A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
Fig. 6. Comparison of fluvial activity chronologies in a west–east transect across Europe: a – flooding episodes in Great Britain (Johnstone et al., 2006; Macklin et al., 2006); b – fluvial activity and stability chronologies in Germany (Hoffmann et al., 2008); c – flooding episodes in Poland (Macklin et al., 2006; Starkel et al., 2006); d – high and low fluvial activity chronologies
in the East European Plain (EEP) (this study). Red and blue background (dark gray and light gray in printed version) mark EEP phases of high and low fluvial activity respectively. For
interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.
even stronger increase of gully erosion accompanied by appearance of
new gullies occurred in the same area in several phases between 3
and 6 ka b2k when no human presence in a wide surrounding area is
known (Panin et al., 2009, 2011). Two of the detected rises of gully erosion correspond to the C-episodes detected in the present study and
characterized by occurrence of high-activity features rather in small
than big catchments (Table 2: episode С3.2 – 3000 b2k, episode C4.2 –
4500 b2k). This may support the interpretation of these gullying phases
as resulting from extreme storm activity phases (Panin et al., 2011).
6. Conclusion
Collecting numerical ages of fluvial deposits, their indexing according to corresponding geomorphic or sedimentological phenomena and
combining of classified dates to obtain their probability density functions provided us with proxies of high and low fluvial activity over the
East European Plain. They were used to construct palaeohydrological
periodization for the post-LGM time at three hierarchical levels. Two
contrast palaeohydrological epochs were found: the post-LGM MIS 2
(18–11.7 ka b2k – before CE 2000) characterized by very high runoff
amounts, and the Holocene with much smaller runoff amounts and
lower fluvial activity compared to the Late Glacial time.
Within the Holocene epoch, eight palaeohydrological phases were
distinguished of relatively high (odd numbers) and low (even numbers)
fluvial activity associated with changing flood magnitudes and overall
runoff amounts. The oldest phase 7 bears features of fluvial system relaxation after abundant runoff in the Late Glacial. The Mid Holocene between 8.5 and 5.5 ka b2k (phase 6) was the Holocene's longest interval
of low floods and small runoff amounts. After 5.5 ka b2k, oscillations of
fluvial activity began with growing amplitude, mainly because of growing peaks of high fluvial activity that coincided with colder climatic
phases. The last active phase 1 corresponds to Little Ice Age. Low fluvial
activity coincided with warm climatic intervals: phase 2 – Medieval Climatic Optimum, the current phase 0 (since the 19th century) – the
modern climatic warming.
Within the palaeohydrological phases, a total of 19 palaeofluvial episodes were detected with high (7 HA-episodes), low (8 LA-episodes)
and contrast activity (4 CA-episodes). The latter were characterized by
simultaneous (within the time resolution of decades to few centuries)
occurrence of both high and low activity phenomena. Potential explanation of such episodes may involve: (1) separation of high and low activity over territory (not found, probably, because of insufficient amount of
data), (2) short-term high-amplitude oscillations of activity within
designated episodes (not investigated because of insufficient temporal
resolution of data), (3) occurrence in different parts of fluvial
systems – catchments of different size (probably detected for the
last two CA-episodes around 3000 and 4500 b2k and explained by
the predominant influence of rising storminess in the warm season
while other high activity episodes seem to have been governed by
rising snowmelt runoff).
Comparison of the constructed hydroclimatic chronology with
palaeopedological and lake level data revealed good correspondence
in the second half of the Holocene and much less accordance before
4 ka b2k. This is very likely explained by insufficient amount and reliability of data behind all kinds of reconstructions. Consequently, the
perspective of future research is associated with further rising of arrays
of dated LPEs, particularly that from the Early and Mid Holocene. Correlation of fluvial activity changes throughout the west-central to eastcentral Europe revealed relatively poor similarity in the Early and Mid
Holocene, with the highest resemblance between 6.5 and 8 ka b2k
when two European-wide time spans of low fluvial activity/stability
were found. Since 3.0 ka b2k palaeohydrological changes demonstrate
significantly higher synchronism throughout Europe, which may
mean rising climatic role of westerlies and their deeper penetration
into the continental interior in the Late Holocene. Analysis of the role
of anthropogenic factor in regional palaeohydrological changes over
EEP showed that throughout the whole Holocene, dynamics of fluvial
activity was governed by natural climate forcing until the last few centuries when land use changes induced accelerated hillslope and gully
erosion.
Please cite this article as: Panin, A., Matlakhova, E., Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological
implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016
A. Panin, E. Matlakhova / Catena xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
Acknowledgment
Financial support for this study was received from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR), Project No. 14-05-00146.
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implications, Catena (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016