Survey of Iraqi
Public Opinion
International Republican Institute
March 23 - 31, 2006
1
Methodology in Brief
• Face-to-face interviews conducted between March 23 –
March 31, 2006
• All field work conducted by an Iraqi polling firm and employed
more than 150 trained interviewers around the country
• Interviews conducted in all 18 governorates.
• A total sample of 2,804 valid interviews were obtained from a
total sample of 3,000 rendering a response rate of 93 percent
• The overall margin of error for this survey is +/- three percent
• Please contact IRI if more detailed methodological information
is required
2
Demographics in Brief
• Representative of 18 of Iraq’s 18 provinces—percentage of
sample range from three percent in Dohuk and Erbil to 25
percent in Baghdad
• Ethnic distribution: Arabic (85%), Kurdish (14%), Turkmen (
less than 1%), Chaldo-Assyrian (less than 1%), other (less
than 1%)
• Urban sample accounts for 67 percent of respondents and
rural respondents comprise remaining 33 percent
• Male to female ratio is 50 to 50, respectively
• Age distribution: 18-24 (20%), 25-34 (31%), 35-44 (23%), 4554 (15%), 55+ (11%)
3
General Public
Outlook
International Republican Institute
March 23 - 31, 2006
4
Do you feel that Iraq is generally heading in the right
direction or the wrong direction?
60%
50%
52%
40%
30%
20%
30%
10%
17%
2%
0%
Right
direction
Wrong
direction
Don't know
No answer
5
Do you feel that Iraq is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong
direction?
Trends: May 2004 – March 2006
70%
67%
62%
60%
50%
40%
51%
52%
11%
9%
42%
37%
49%
36%
36%
52%
30%
16%
12%
47%
34%
23%
20%
43%
49%
39%
39%
32%
31%
48%
49%
45%
42%
39%
30%
10%
54%
51%
10%
12%
14%
20%
12%
14%
14%
11%
17%
13%
12%
5/
27
-6
/1
1/
04
7/
24
-8
/2
/0
4
9/
24
-1
0/
4/
04
11
/2
412
/5
12
/0
/2
4*
6/
04
-1
/7
/0
5*
*
1/
13
-1
/2
4/
05
*
2/
27
-3
/5
/0
5*
4/
11
-4
/2
0/
05
7/
*
97/
14
/0
5*
**
9/
69/
12
/0
10
5*
**
/9
-1
0/
11
/0
11
5*
**
/1
-1
1/
11
/0
11
5*
/3
**
0
-1
2/
7/
05
**
*
3/
23
-3
/3
1/
06
0%
Right direction
Wrong direction
DK
* Does not include Mosul, Anbar and Dohuk / **Does not include Mosul and Dohuk/ ***Does not include Anbar
6
Why do you feel that Iraq is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Wrong Direction
Right Direction
Freedom and democracy
35%
Bad security situation
45%
Elected national government
28%
Presence of occupation
17%
Increasing wages
10%
Inactive government
16%
Getting rid of former regime
9%
Militias and parties
4%
Improving security situation
5%
Unavailability of services
4%
N=850
N=1445
7
TREND: Thinking about the future, do you feel that things will
be better, the same or worse in six months?
100%
90%
8%
3%
12%
10%
22%
10%
80%
31%
70%
44%
60%
50%
40%
44%
43%
49%
29%
40%
30%
26%
26%
20%
23%
20%
17%
20%
10%
0%
3%
1%
Apr. 11-20, 2005
10%
11%
11%
3%
3%
6%
4%
Jul. 9-14, 2005
Sept. 6-12, 2005
Oct. 9-11, 2005
Nov. 1-11, 2005
Much worse
Worse
Same
9%
Better
9%
Mar. 23-31, 2006
Much better
8
TREND: Thinking about the future, do you feel that things will be
better, the same or worse in one year?
100%
90%
22%
80%
9%
22%
34%
26%
25%
70%
60%
39%
50%
45%
41%
38%
40%
40%
30%
48%
20%
20%
10%
0%
14%
8%
2%
Apr. 11-20, 2005
7%
14%
13%
7%
8%
5%
3%
3%
Jul. 9-14, 2005
Sept. 6-12, 2005
Much worse
Worse
Oct. 9-11, 2005
Same
Better
14%
9%
6% 3%
9%
Nov. 1-11, 2005
Mar. 23-31, 2006
Much better
9
TREND: Thinking about the future, do you feel that things will be
better, the same or worse in five years?
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
26%
47%
57%
43%
43%
47%
50%
40%
35%
30%
20%
25%
28%
7%
10%
3%
0% 1%
27%
29%
28%
1%
Apr. 11-20, 2005
7%
5%
5%
5%
5%
3%
4%
4%
Sept. 6-12, 2005
Oct 9-11, 2005
3%
Jul. 9-14, 2005
Much worse
Worse
Same
Better
6%
5%
4%
2%
7%
Nov. 1-11, 2005
Mar. 23-31, 2006
Much better
10
TREND: For each of the following issues, please tell me whether you
feel that the situation has gotten better, worse or stayed the same over
the last three months:
100%
3%
2%
6%
9%
90%
22%
29%
80%
35%
70%
60%
48%
34%
29%
50%
27%
40%
30%
28%
32%
28%
20%
25%
10%
14%
9%
7%
Electricity (Jul. 9 -14,
2005)
Electricity (Sept. 6-12,
2005)
0%
Much worse
Worse
11%
1%
Same
Electricity (Nov. 1-11,
2005)
Better
Electricity (Mar. 23-31,
2006)
Much better
11
TREND: For each of the following issues, please tell me whether you
feel that the situation has gotten better, worse or stayed the same over
the last three months:
100%
8%
3%
9%
10%
90%
18%
80%
70%
32%
35%
34%
23%
60%
50%
21%
23%
27%
40%
33%
30%
20%
28%
25%
21%
22%
10%
8%
9%
8%
Security (Jul. 9-14, 2005)
Security (Sept. 6-12,
2005)
Security (Nov.1-11,2005)
0%
Much worse
Worse
Same
Security (Mar. 23-31,
2006)
12
Better
Much better
TREND: For each of the following issues, please tell me whether you
feel that the situation has gotten better, worse or stayed the same over
the last three months:
100%
90%
1%
3%
2%
3%
10%
7%
12%
17%
80%
28%
70%
60%
38%
38%
35%
50%
37%
40%
30%
34%
31%
31%
20%
10%
24%
14%
12%
13%
0%
Unemployment (Jul. 9-14, Unemployment (Sept. 62005)
12, 2005)
Much worse
Worse
Unemployment (Nov. 111, 2005)
Same
Better
Unemployment (Mar. 2331, 2006)
Much better
13
TREND: For each of the following issues, please tell me whether you
feel that the situation has gotten better, worse or stayed the same over
the last three months:
100%
90%
80%
6%
8%
18%
16%
70%
32%
28%
60%
50%
3%
2%
32%
38%
40%
35%
27%
13%
22%
30%
25%
20%
10%
0%
9%
3%
4%
Corruption (Jul. 9-14,
2005)
Corruption (Sept. 6-12,
2005)
Much worse
Worse
30%
Corruption (Nov.1-11,
2005)
Same
Better
Corruption (Mar. 23-31,
2006)
Much better
14
TREND: For each of the following issues, please tell me whether you
feel that the situation has gotten better, worse or stayed the same over
the last three months:
100%
5%
90%
10%
6%
7%
32%
29%
1%
16%
80%
70%
31%
60%
48%
50%
40%
32%
35%
37%
14%
13%
13%
4%
4%
5%
Wages (Jul. 9-14, 2005)
Wages (Sept. 6-12,
2005)
Wages (Nov.1-11, 2005)
30%
20%
10%
0%
Much worse
Worse
Same
Better
28%
Wages (Mar. 23-31,
2006)
Much better
15
How would you rate economic conditions in Iraq today?
60%
50%
53%
40%
30%
29%
20%
10%
2%
4%
13%
0%
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
DK/NA
16
How would you rate security conditions in Iraq today?
80%
70%
76%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2%
Excellent
5%
14%
Good
Fair
2%
Poor
DK/NA
17
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dr. Ibrahim
Jaafari is handling his job as Prime Minister?
DK
2%
Disapprove
42%
NA
3%
Approve
53%
18
Do you want Dr. Ibrahim Jaafari to serve another term as
Prime Minister?
DK
8%
No
41%
NA
3%
Yes
48%
19
How much influence do you think Iran currently exercises
over Iraqi politics and government?
NA
1%
DK
21%
None
20%
A lot
39%
A little
7%
Some
12%
20
Do you think that Iranian influence over Iraqi politics and
government is good or bad for Iraq?
NA
8%
DK
25%
Good
8%
No difference
11%
Bad
48%
21
The Iraqi government currently provides cheap fuel to all Iraqis. Would you be willing to
accept a small increase in the price of fuel in exchange for a large reduction in Iraq’s
international debt, an increase of several hundred thousand new jobs for Iraqis, and
significantly improved government services for the poorest Iraqis?
Depends on size
of increase
19%
DK
13%
Yes
7%
No
61%
22
Why are you willing to accept a small increase in the price of fuel in exchange
for a reduction in Iraq’s international debt, an increase of several hundred
thousand new jobs for Iraqis, and significantly improved government services
for the poorest Iraqis?
Prevent money
smuggling
4%
Help to poor
12%
Creates job
opportunities
21%
Decrease debts
14%
National interests
49%
N=189
23
Why are you not willing to accept a small increase in the price of fuel in
exchange for a reduction in Iraq’s international debt, an increase of several
hundred thousand new jobs for Iraqis, and significantly improved government
services for the poorest Iraqis?
Fuel needs
7%
Deterioration of
economy
17%
No benefit from it
5%
Unemployed
55%
Impartial
government
7%
Iraq is oil rich
9%
N=1651
24
Looking Ahead to
Future Political
Events
International Republican Institute
March 23 - 31, 2006
25
Which of the following statements best describes your
opinion regarding the structure of the Iraqi government
currently being formed?
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
45%
18%
25%
3%
8%
"I favor a unity
"Any coalition
"The distribution of
"Members of the
power in the new capable of forming a government, where
coalition that
as many parties as
received the most government should majority should all
possible are
top ministry
reflect the
votes should occupy
represented in top
positions"
distribution of
all top ministry
positions"
votes"
positions"
DK
26
Which issues should be highest priority in the new Iraqi
government?
100%
3rd choice
2nd choice
90%
80%
1st choice
14%
70%
60%
21%
50%
40%
24%
20%
21%
18%
30%
30%
20%
48%
13%
31%
10%
3%
4%
8%
0%
Infrastructure
Economic
development/job
creation
Security
1%
Amending the
constitution
9%
Withdrawal of
coalition forces
from Iraq
12%
1% 5%
Fighting
government
corruption
1%
7%
1%
Reducing fuel
subsidies
27
Which of the following statements best reflects your
opinion on a timetable for the proposed constitutional
amendment process?
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
30%
36%
11%
"We should move
forward with the
amendment process
within the next
couple months, as
initially planned"
12%
8%
"We should not
"We should be
"We should move
consider any
willing to delay the
forward with the
amendment process amendment process amendments to the
constitution"
within the next year, up to four years, in
order to educate
in order to educate
Iraqis about the new Iraqis about the new
government and the government and the
issues at stake"
issues at stake"
DK
28
Please tell me which statement best represents your
opinion about provincial elections, even if neither is
completely correct.
80%
70%
60%
70%
50%
40%
24%
30%
20%
2%
10%
0%
"Provincial elections should be
held as soon as possible"
"Provincial elections should be
delayed until Iraq reforms its
election laws"
DK
29
Please tell me which statement best represents your
opinion about provincial elections, even if neither is
completely correct.
100%
80%
9%
26%
26%
24%
18%
40%
60%
40%
86%
72%
35%
71%
68%
78%
20%
18%
0%
1%
Baghdad
5%
Kurdistan
Northern
Arab
4%
1%
Sunni
MidProvinces Euphrates
1%
South
"Provincial elections should be delayed until Iraq reforms its election laws"
"Provincial elections should be held as soon as possible"
DK
30
Looking ahead to Iraq’s next election cycle, tell me whether you
agree or disagree with the following statement:
“Politicians should make stronger appeals based on religion or
ethnicity.”
DK
21%
NA
2%
Disagree
35%
Agree
42%
31
Looking ahead to Iraq’s next election cycle, tell me whether you
agree or disagree with the following statement:
“Politicians should not campaign at all on the basis of religion or
ethnicity.”
DK
23%
NA
2%
Disagree
30%
Agree
45%
32
Looking ahead to Iraq’s next election cycle, tell me whether you
agree or disagree with the following statement:
“Politicians need to do a better job letting voters know where
they stand on key issues such as security and the economy.”
Disagree
3%
DK
22%
NA
2%
Agree
73%
33
Looking ahead to Iraq’s next election cycle, tell me whether you
agree or disagree with the following statement:
“Politicians should promise to reward their strongest supporters
with government jobs and contracts.”
DK
28%
NA
2%
Disagree
57%
Agree
13%
34
Attitudes
Towards Political
Division and
Security
International Republican Institute
March 23 - 31, 2006
35
Do you think the recent attack on the mosque in Samarra
is an acceptable form of political expression?
DK
2%
Yes
2%
No
96%
36
Do you think Iraq is more politically divided today than in
the past, or not?
Not more divided
19%
DK
19%
More divided
62%
37
Which of the following statements best reflects your
opinion on the issues of federalism in Iraq?
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
53%
14%
6%
"Every governorate "The predominantly
Kurdish
should be allowed
governorates of
join a so-called
Dohuk, Erbil, and
'super region'
Suleymaniya should
composed of
be allowed to keep
multiple
their special status,
governorates"
but no other
governorates should
be allowed to join
together under a
similar arrangement"
4%
"I do not accept the
"Every individual
concept of
governorate should
federalism. The
be granted greater
government in
authority under a
Baghdad should
more flexible federal
have all political
structure, but should
not be allowed to power and authority"
join other
governorates in a
so-called super
region"
21%
DK
38
Which of the following statements best reflects your
opinion on the issues of federalism in Iraq?
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2%
8%
50%
5%
4%
10%
4%
Baghdad
82%
33%
6%
1%
32%
4%
1%
Kurdistan
2% 1% 1%
2%
Northern Arab
3%
2%
48%
50%
82%
3%
Sunni Areas
4%
1%
17%
21%
2%
2%
Mid-Euphrates
South
"I do not accept the concept of federalism. The government in Baghdad should have all political power and authority"
"Every individual governorate should be granted greater authority under a more flexible federal structure, but should not be
allowed to join other governorates in a so-called super region"
"The predominantly Kurdish governorates of Dohuk, Erbil, and Suleymaniya should be allowed to keep their special status, but
no other governorates should be allowed to join together under a similar arrangement"
"Every governorate should be allowed join a so-called "super region" composed of multiple governorates"
NA
39
Whom do you trust to protect your personal safety?
Armed militias
4%
Iraqi police
43%
Multinational
forces
1%
Insurgents/resistanc
e
6%
Other
3%
Iraqi army
35%
No Answer
4%
DK
4%
40
Whom do you trust to protect your personal safety?
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
4%
2%
1%
1%
3%
11%
40%
20%
47%
27%
54%
38%
1%
43%
19%
52%
30%
29%
14%
Baghdad
Iraqi army
Kurdistan
Iraqi police
Northern
Arab
Armed militias
45%
23%
Sunni
MidProvinces Euphrates
Multinational forces
South
Insurgents/resistance
41
Please tell me which statement best represents your
opinion about militias, even if neither is completely
correct.
90%
80%
70%
80%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
16%
2%
0%
"Armed militias make Iraq safer, "Armed militias make Iraq more
dangerous, and should thus be
and therefore should be
abolished"
strengthened"
DK
42
Please tell me which statement best represents your
opinion about militias, even if neither is completely
correct.
100%
80%
60%
75%
65%
91%
91%
77%
81%
18%
15%
40%
20%
24%
0%
Baghdad
22%
4%
4%
7%
4%
Kurdistan
Northern
Arab
5%
1%
Sunni
MidProvinces Euphrates
South
"Armed militias make Iraq more dangerous, and should thus be abolished"
"Armed militias make Iraq safer, and should therefore be strengthened"
DK
43
Please tell me which statement best represents your
opinion about the military, even if neither is completely
correct.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
87%
10%
"I prefer that my safety is
ensured by a national Iraqi
military force"
"I prefer that my safety is
ensured by a specific militia"
3%
DK
44
Please tell me which statement best represents
your opinion about the military, even if neither is
completely correct.
100%
2%
19%
80%
3%
2%
5%
91%
92%
17%
60%
40%
80%
72%
93%
94%
20%
6%
0%
Baghdad
Kurdistan
4%
2%
1%
Northern
Sunni
MidArab
Provinces Euphrates
1%
South
"I prefer that my safety is ensured by a specific militia"
"I prefer that my safety is ensured by a national Iraqi military force"
DK
45
Please tell me which statement best represents your
opinion about violence, even if neither is completely
correct.
90%
80%
70%
78%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
17%
2%
0%
"Violence is never acceptable,
"Violence is an acceptable
even if the government does not
response if the government
meet my expectations"
does not meet my expectations"
DK
46
Please tell me which statement best represents
your opinion about violence, even if neither is
completely correct.
100%
80%
58%
60%
92%
49%
74%
85%
88%
40%
43%
20%
0%
14%
37%
7%
6%
4%
Baghdad
Kurdistan
Northern
Arab
6%
1% 7%
Sunni
MidProvinces Euphrates
1%
11%
South
"Violence is never acceptable, even if the government does not meet my expectations"
"Violence is an acceptable response if the government does not meet my expectations"
DK
47
Do you think there are substantial obstacles to national
reconciliation in Iraq?
DK
41%
Yes
37%
No
22%
48
If you think there are substantial obstacles to national
reconciliation, what are the top two issues that stand in the
way of national reconciliation in Iraq?
35%
2nd choice
1st choice
30%
25%
13%
11%
16%
20%
18%
10%
15%
6%
10%
be
rs
10%
5%
Ba
'a
th
pa
rty
m
em
en
dm
12%
NA
2%
3%
Te
rr
or
is
m
4%
2%
3%
en
ts
3%
ili
tia
s
M
Se
cu
rit
y
is
m
ca
lc
om
Pr
pe
es
tit
en
io
n
ce
of
oc
cu
pa
tio
n
Po
lit
i
Se
ct
ar
ia
n
Fe
de
ra
lis
m
0%
2%
na
la
m
4%
3%
Ki
rk
uk
10%
tio
11%
5%
5%
4%
DK
16%
Co
ns
tit
u
16%
49
Attitudes
Towards the
December 2005
Elections
International Republican Institute
March 23 - 31, 2006
50
In December 2005, Iraqis elected representatives of a
new national assembly. Did you vote?
NA
1%
No
16%
DK
1%
Yes
82%
51
When did you decide how you would vote in the
December 2005 election?
60%
50%
52%
40%
30%
20%
10%
12%
0%
Day of
election
7%
11%
Last three Week before
days before the election
election
15%
Month
before
election
3%
More than a
month
before
election
DK
52
What factor had the greatest influence on your vote in
the December 2005 elections?
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
34%
15%
16%
10%
12%
5%
15%
10%
9%
0%
Religion
Ethnicity
Platform of Performance Quality of
party
of incumbent individual
government candidates
of each party
Security
53
Which statement most accurately describes your reason
for not voting on December 15, 2005?
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
24%
17%
15%
12%
6%
5%
"I am not
"One person's "I did not like
"My vote
"I had security
interested in
any of the
vote can
would not
concerns and
politics and
party
feared for my count because never make a
coalitions or government,
difference"
of election
safety at the
candidates" and had more
fraud"
polling
important
station"
things to do"
8%
"The polling "My name was
not on the
station was
voter list"
too far away"
54
Do you believe that, during the December 2005 election
campaign, Iraq’s political leaders did an effective job
explaining and debating issues most important to Iraq’s
future?
DK
22%
NA
2%
No
39%
Yes
37%
55
Which of the following statements best describes your
opinion on the question of possible fraud in the
December 2005 elections?
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
39%
24%
14%
7%
7%
7%
"There was some "There was a lot "I have no clue if
"The official
"The official
there was fraud
election results election results fraud in the vote of fraud in the
as part of the
vote counting
counting
are accurate. I aren't accurate,
elections."
process, but not process, and it
but this is
do not believe
affected the
enough to make
because of
there was fraud
outcome of the
a difference in
unintentional
in the December
election."
the results."
human error."
elections."
DK
56
Based on its performance last year, how much
confidence do you have in the ability of the Independent
Electoral Commission of Iraqi (IECI) to administer
elections fairly and accurately?
DK
17%
No confidence
24%
Complete
confidence
42%
Very little
confidence
6%
Some confidence
11%
57