French Indochina Indochina French Indochina (1887) Cochin China, Tonkin, and Annam formed Vietnam Laos and Cambodia (1893) Ho Chi Minh in Paris Ho Chi Minh presented his 8 Points at Versailles, joined the Socialist Party and became a founding member of the French Communist Party in 1921. Japanese Occupation of Vietnam Vo Nguyen Giap Viet Minh The Vietnamese Independence Party (and military resistance) Headed by Ho Chin Minh, an “umbrella” organization led by Communists NSC-68 “To the West, we will crush you!” --Khrushchev at the UN Battle of Dien Bien Phu, 1954 The Geneva Accords, 1954 • Meant to resolve conflicts in Korea and Vietnam • US, USSR, UK, France, PRC in attendance—others came in and out • Battle of Dien Bien Phu was being fought and the Korean War was on cease-fire • US never signed but pledged to support provision of free-elections in Vietnam set for 1956 to unify north and south Ike, JF Dulles, and Diem Ngo Dinh Diem and Ike Origins of the Conflict for the US 1940: France falls to Germany, and Japan takes over French colonies in Indochina 1941-45 : Ho Chi Minh organizes Vietminh to fight Japanese occupation and briefly declares Vietnam independent after the defeat of Japan 1946: France-Indochina War begins 1954: French defeat leaves Vietnam divided at the 17th parallel 1957: Guerrilla activity begins in South, conducted by the Vietcong with the aid of the North Ngo Dinh Nhu, Brother to Diem and Head of the South Vietnamese Police Force Madame Nhu JFK Inherits Truman and Ike’s Policies 1940: France falls to Germany, and Japan takes over French colonies in Indochina 1941-45 : FDR doesn’t really have time to deal with Vietnam but says French left it worse off than before they colonized it 1946: France-Indochina War begins 1950: US takes over responsibility of paying for French War; by 1954, we’re paying 80%. 1954: We ignore Geneva Accords, support Diem 100% 1957: NLF (Viet Cong) begins guerrilla activity to win the South But first, trouble in Cuba CIA Director Allen Dulles Bay of Pigs, 1961 A quick stop at the Berlin Wall, where JFK declares, “Ich bin ein Berliner.” Escalation Under JFK • Increases commitment to Ngo Dinh Diem • Promotes the Strategic Hamlet Program, meant to separate the VC from the peasants —a dismal failure • Increased American advisors from 550 to 16,000 • CIA involved in the assassination of Diem in November of 1963 following Buddhist riots • Leaves LBJ a critical and failing policy Buddhist Monk Self-Immolates Ngo Dinh Diem assassinated by his military Containment Pre-1964 Diplomatic – NATO, Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), mutual security treaties with Japan, Taiwan, South Korea Economic – European Recovery Program, aid to Greece and Turkey, trade/financial cooperation Military – Berlin (1949, 1961), Korean War (1950-53), Iran (1953) Guatemala (1954), Taiwan Straits (1954, 58), Lebanon and Jordan (1958), Cuba (1961), Laos (1961-62) Domino Theory 1. Loss of Vietnam would strengthen communist movements in the region increasing risk of communist takeovers elsewhere. 2. Failure to protect South Vietnam would call into question the credibility of U.S. commitments worldwide, • weakening alliances and causing allies to seek accommodation, and • tempting the Soviet Union and China to test our resolve elsewhere (esp., Europe). Was Victory Possible? Who was the enemy? • Vietcong insurgents in SVN – use of small, mobile groups engaged in hitand-run tactics, rather than control over territory – relies on support of non-combatant population and ability to blend in with noncombatants (VC Infrastructure, VCI) • North Vietnam: infiltration of troops (NVA), arms, supplies to support the Vietcong • Soviet Union and China: provide economic aid, supplies, and arms to North Vietnam Was Victory Possible? What would “victory” require? • An end to North Vietnamese support for the insurgency in SVN. • Political reforms in SVN that would diminish local support for the insurgency (land reform, anti-corruption, democratization). • An increase in the effectiveness of SVN military so that counter-insurgency could be handled domestically, rather than by US. Was Victory Possible? Obstacles to compelling NVN restraint: • The asymmetry of resolve: North Vietnam had stronger interest at stake. • The actions that would be needed to break NVN resolve would likely lead to a wider war (esp., with China). Was Victory Possible? Obstacles to compelling SVN reform: • The “stakes vs. leverage” dilemma: How do you coerce a vital ally? • The dependency problem: The more the U.S. protects SVN government, the less incentive it has to reform. • Nation-building vs. nationalism Congress, The President, and War Powers Who Has the Power to Wage War? Vietnam: A Case Study The Constitution and War Powers Congress Article I, Section 8. The Congress shall have Power Clause 10: To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offences against the Law of Nations; Clause 11: To declare War… and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water; Clause 12: To raise and support Armies… Clause 13: To provide and maintain a Navy; Clause 15: To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions…. The Constitution and War Powers President Article II, Section 2: The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States… He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur; and he shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors… The Separation of War Powers “Those who are to conduct a war cannot in the nature of things, be proper or safe judges, whether a war ought to be commenced, continued or concluded. They are barred from the latter functions by a great principle in free government, analogous to that which separates the sword from the purse, or the power of executing from the power of enacting laws.” —James Madison The Separation of War Powers “The [President of the United States] would have a right to command the military and naval forces of the nation; the [King of Britain], in addition to this right, possesses that of declaring war, and of raising and regulating fleets and armies by his own authority. ” —Alexander Hamilton The Federalist No. 69 The UN, NATO, and War Powers The United Nations Participation Act (1945): • “Section 6. The President is authorized to negotiate a special agreement or agreements with the Security Council which shall be subject to the approval of the Congress by appropriate Act or joint resolution providing for the numbers and types of armed forces, their degree of readiness and general location, and the nature of facilities and assistance, including rights of passage, to be made available to the Security Council on its call for the purpose of maintaining international peace and security in accordance with article 43 of said Charter.” The UN, NATO, and War Powers The North Atlantic Treaty (1949): • “Article 5. The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them…will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith…such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” • “Article 11. This Treaty shall be ratified and its provisions carried out by the Parties in accordance with their respective constitutional processes. “ War Declarations in U.S. History • • • • War of 1812 Mexican-American War (1846) Spanish-American War (1898) Word War I (1917) – Germany – Austria-Hungary • World War II – 1941: Japan, Germany, Italy, – 1942: Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania Undeclared Major Wars Since 1945 • Korea (1950-53) • Vietnam (1965-73) • Persian Gulf (1991) • Afghanistan (2001-present) • Iraq (2003-2011) A Declaration of War Whereas the Imperial Government of Japan has committed unprovoked acts of war against the Government and the people of the United States of America: Therefore be it resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the state of war between the United States and the Imperial Government of Japan which has thus been thrust upon the United States is hereby formally declared; and the President is hereby authorized and directed to employ the entire naval and military forces of the United States and the resources of the Government to carry on war against the Imperial Government of Japan; and, to bring the conflict to a successful termination, all of the resources of the country are hereby pledged by the Congress of the United States. Approved, December 8, 1941 An Authorization to Use Force The President is authorized to use the Armed Forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate in order to— (1) defend the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq; and (2) enforce all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq. Approved October 11, 2002. Uses of U.S. Armed Forces 1950-1989 Years Mission 1950-53 1954-55 1958 1961-62 1962 1962 1964-73 1965 1970 1975 1980 1982 1982 1983 1986 1987-88 Korean War Taiwan Straits Lebanon Laos Thailand Quarantine of Cuba Vietnam War Dominican Republic Cambodia Mayaguez incident Iran hostage rescue Sinai peacekeeping Lebanon Grenada Libya Persian Gulf tanker Action Congress Authorized Opposition ? ? no no pre no pre no no no no no pre no pre post no no no post no no no no pre no post no no no no no no no UN? yes no no no no no no no no no no no yes no no no Uses of U.S. Armed Forces 1990-2011 Years 1990 1991 1992 1993-94 1993-2003 1993-99 1993-95 1994 1994 1995-2005 1996 1998 1998 1999 199920012003- Congress Mission Authorized Opposition ? ? Saudi Arabia (Desert Shield) no no Persian Gulf War pre no Somalia (UNITAF) post no Somalia (UNOSOM II) no pre/post Iraq no-fly zone pre no Macedonia peacekeepers no no Bosnia no-fly zone no no Rwanda refugee assistance no pre/post Haiti no pre/post Bosnia PKs (IFOR/SFOR) no pre Zaire no no Afghanistan/Sudan strikes no no Iraq air strikes pre no Kosovo (air strikes) no pre Kosovo (peacekeepers) no no Afghanistan War/GWOT pre no Iraq War pre post UN? no yes yes yes ? yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes no yes yes no And now, back to Vietnam. . . The Gulf of Tonkin Incident and Resolution Escalation and Lies Continue The Gulf of Tonkin Incident • Aug. 1964, two incidents were reported of NVA PT boat attacks against USS Mattox and Turner Joy, destroyer class naval vessels • Pentagon claimed they were on a “routine mission” in “international waters” when attacked. • Lies and truth-stretching occurred. The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution • In response to attacks on US naval vessels, LBJ sought congressional authorization to retaliated by air. • LBJ wanted congress in with him as election approached • “Gulf of Tonkin” Resolution gave the president a “blank check” to stop the spread of communism in Vietnam • Only two congressmen voted against. Gulf of Tonkin Incident/Resolution Date Source: John Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.), pp. 54-55. Aug-71 Mar-71 Oct-70 Jun-70 Aug-69 Mar-69 Oct-68 May-68 “Mistake” Dec-67 Jul-67 Feb-67 Sep-66 Apr-66 Nov-65 Jun-65 Jan-65 “Not a Mistake” Jan-70 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Aug-64 Percent Support for the Vietnam War, 1964-71 The Shadow of Truman 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. The Truman doctrine (1947) The “Loss of China” (1949) The Korean War (1950-53) McCarthyism (1950-54) Truman’s Fate Domestic Political Considerations 1. The political costs of “losing Vietnam” • • Fear of electoral retribution LBJ’s domestic agenda: The “Great Society” program 2. The constraint against full escalation • • Anticipated and actual opposition Guns and butter?: The need to fund the “Great Society” program Choices and Constraints Disengage Lower bound Upper bound Minimum Necessary to Prevent Loss of South Vietnam Maximum Feasible Full-Scale Military Effort Strategies Ruled Out Under LBJ 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Use of nuclear weapons Ground invasion of North Vietnam Destruction of dike and dam system Bombing of civilian populations Mining of North Vietnamese ports Invasion of Cambodia and/or Laos Military Strategy 1. Counter-insurgency in the South 2. Coercive air power against the North (Rolling Thunder) with the goals of • • stopping the flow of men and supplies into the South and reaching a peace agreement. Strategies for Using Air Power 1. Coercion: Demonstrate resolve to inflict even greater damage if demands are not met • Tactics: incremental escalation from low- to highvalue targets, with pauses to permit negotiations • Advocated by: civilians (MacNamara) 2. Denial: Physically disrupt enemies ability to move people and supplies (air interdiction) • Tactics: target lines of communication, petroleum facilities • Advocated by: chairman of JCS and army 3. Punishment: Destroy enemy will and morale • Tactics: sustained, intense attacks on industrial targets • Advocated by: air force Between the Minimum Necessary and the Maximum Feasible 1. Incremental escalation 600,000 Aid Military advisors Covert operations Air strikes Ground troops 2. Minimal mobilization • • • 500,000 Troop Level • • • • • 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1960 1962 1964 Refusal to call up reserves Draft with service limited to 12 months Resisted tax increase until 1967 Year 1966 1968 Goals in Vietnam Assistant Secretary of Defense John McNaughton, 1965 10 % – To permit the people of SVN to enjoy a better, freer way of life. 20 % – To keep SVN (and the adjacent) territory from Chinese hands. 70 % – To avoid a humiliating U.S. defeat (to our reputation as a guarantor). 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 “Not a Mistake” “Mistake” Date Source: John Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.), pp. 54-55. Aug-71 Mar-71 Oct-70 Jun-70 Jan-70 Aug-69 Mar-69 Oct-68 May-68 Dec-67 Jul-67 Feb-67 Sep-66 Apr-66 Nov-65 Jun-65 Jan-65 Tet Offensive, 1-3/1968 Aug-64 Percent Support for the Vietnam War, 1964-71 After Tet (1968) March 10: Westmoreland requests 206,000 more troops March 12: Anti-War Sen. Eugene McCarthy (D-MN) gets 42 percent of vote in New Hampshire Democratic primary March 19: Robert Kennedy enters race for Democratic nomination on an anti-war platform March 31: In televised address, LBJ announces – intention to end escalation, halt bombing north of 21st parallel – start a peace initiative – “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.” April 4: LBJ rejects Westmoreland’s request and sets troop level at 541,000 1968 Democratic Convention Nixon’s Political Strategy 1. De-legitimize dissent 2. The “Madman strategy” 3. Triangular diplomacy • • The “China card” Détente Nixon thaws Cold War relations with Detente Nixon visits China, 1972 Nixon’s Strategy 1. “Vietnamization”: Shift responsibility to South Vietnamese Army while reducing U.S. troop presence. 2. Threats/escalatory efforts to show continued resolve • • • • Secret bombing of Cambodia (1969) Invasion of Cambodia (1970) Invasion of Laos (1971) Christmas bombing (Dec. 1972) U.S. Troops in Vietnam, 1969-1972 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Dec-68 Jun-69 Jan-70 Jul-70 Feb-71 Sep-71 Mar-72 Oct-72 Anti-War Protests Invasion of Cambodia 100 Linebacker and Mining of Haiphong 80 60 Oct. 15 Moratorium 40 Invasion of Laos 20 0 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Source: Doug McAdam and Yang Su, “The War at Home: Antiwar Protests and Congressional Voting, 1965 to 1973,” American Sociological Review 67 (Oct. 2002), p. 711. My Lai Massacre, 1968 • Hundreds of villagers massacred in the village of My Lai in the Spring of 1968 • Covered up by those involved for a year • Life Magazine revealed photos of the massacre in 1969, leading to protests and a shocked American public • A Court Martial of Lt. Calley followed, which divided the American public My Lai Massacre, 1968 Kent State and Jackson State Killings, May 1970 Final Moves 1. Easter Offensive and Operation Linebacker (April-May 1972) 2. “Peace is at Hand”? (Oct. 1972) 3. Nixon wins reelection by a landslide (Nov. 1972) 4. Christmas Bombings (Dec. 1972) 5. Paris Peace Accords (Jan. 1973) Peace Terms 1. American withdrawal in exchange for release of POWs 2. Recognition of a post-war role for the Provisional Revolutionary Government, a rival government set up by the Vietcong 3. North Vietnamese troops allowed to remain south of the DMZ, in territory captured in Easter Offensive 4. Reunification of Vietnam would take place peacefully, through mutual agreement International Effects: Dominoes? * * * The 1973 War Powers Act When U.S. armed forces are introduced “into hostilities or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated”: 1. The president must notify Congress in writing within 48 hours. 2. The operation must terminate after 60 days unless • Congress has declared war or otherwise authorized the mission • Congress explicitly extends the 60-day limit, or • the deadline cannot be physically met due to an armed attack on the United States 3. The president may extend the limit an additional 30 days (for a total of 90) if the additional time is needed to safely remove the forces. 4. Congress can terminate the operation before the 60 days are up with a concurrent resolution. The U.S. Military Adjusts • Policy toward media – pools – embeds • The All-Volunteer Force • The Weinberger/Powell Doctrine The Weinberger/Powell Doctrine 1. Is a vital US interest at stake? 2. Will we commit sufficient resources to win (swift, decisive, overwhelming)? 3. Are the objectives clearly defined? Is there an “exit strategy”? 4. Will we sustain the commitment? 5. Is there reasonable expectation that the public and Congress will support the operation? 6. Have we exhausted our other options? Watergate and Vietnam Watergate and Vietnam • The release of the Pentagon Papers in 1971 drove Nixon’s staff to form the “plumbers.” They stop leaks and do dirty tricks. Domestic Policy Advisor John Ehrlichman and Chief of Staff Bob Haldeman Watergate and Vietnam Watergate and Vietnam • The plumbers broke in to Daniel Ellsberg’s psychiatrist’s office. Defense analyst Ellsberg at his trial. Watergate and Vietnam • Even though the Ellsberg case was thrown out, the plumbers remained. CREEP—The Committee to ReElect the President— made use of them. The Watergate apartments and office buildings, Washington DC Watergate and Vietnam • Young reporters Woodward and Bernstein were tenacious in their reporting for the Washington Post. Watergate and Vietnam • They had a secret inside contact who tipped them off named “Deep Throat.” His identity was not revealed until 2005. Mark Felt, No. 2 man at the FBI Watergate and Vietnam • Congress opens hearings in 1973. Special Counsel to the President John Dean breaks ranks and informs the committee that he told the president of the danger of the cover-up. “There’s a cancer growing on the presidency.” Watergate and Vietnam • The White House taping system is revealed, and the battle for the tapes begin. Watergate and Vietnam • The investigation took its toll on Nixon. Watergate and Vietnam 8/9/74 Watergate and Vietnam Gerald Ford Pardons Nixon Fall of Saigon, April 30, 1975
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