Decreasing Absolute Risk Aversion, Prudence and Increased Downside Risk Aversion* August 2011 Liqun Liu Private Enterprise Research Center Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843 [email protected] Jack Meyer Department of Economics Michigan State University East Lansing, MI 48824 [email protected] Abstract: Downside risk increases have previously been characterized as changes preferred by all decision makers u(x) with u'''(x) > 0. For risk averse decision makers, u'''(x) > 0 also defines prudence. This paper finds that downside risk increases can also be characterized as changes preferred by all decision makers displaying decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) whenever all random variables have equal means. Building on these findings, the paper proposes using “more decreasingly absolute risk averse” or “more prudent” as alternative definitions of increased downside risk aversion. These alternative definitions generate a transitive ordering, while the existing definition based on a transformation function with a positive third derivative does not. Other properties of the new definitions of increased downside risk aversion are also presented. Key Words: DARA; Downside risk; Downside risk aversion; Decreasing absolute risk aversion, Prudence JEL Classification Codes: D81 1 1. Introduction More than thirty years ago, Menezes, Geiss and Tressler (MGT) (1980) present a definition of an increase in downside risk. This definition specifies in a formal way the unambiguous shifting of risk from the right to the left in the support of a random variable keeping the total risk constant. MGT indicate that preferences for or aversion to such risk shifts should depend on whether risk aversion is increasing or decreasing.1 The main theorem they present, however, shows that one cumulative distribution function (CDF) is an increase in downside risk from another if and only if the latter is preferred to the former by all decision makers whose utility function has a positive third derivative. Of course, it is well known that a positive third derivative for the utility function is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA). Thus, the connection that MGT establish is between increases in downside risk and the slope of u''(x) rather than the slope of risk aversion. Quite naturally, the ensuing literature extending the work of MGT has also focused on the sign of the third derivative of utility. This is true when defining what it means for one decision maker to be more downside risk averse than another, when attempting to measure the strength or degree of downside risk aversion, and when defining what an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk is. Kimball (1990), Keenan and Snow (2002), Modica and Scarsini (2005), Jindapon and Neilson (2007), Crainich and Eeckhoudt (2008) and Keenan and Snow (2009) are among those who carry out these extensions. There are a number of unresolved issues in this literature, including how to define an increase in downside risk aversion as well as how to measure its intensity. Various researchers have proposed different things, including at least one definition of when one decision maker is 2 more downside risk averse than another, and at least three different measures of the intensity of downside risk aversion. At this point, however, there is no agreed upon measure of the intensity of downside risk aversion, and the proposed definition of increased downside risk aversion has serious defects. The analysis here explains in part why this is the case, and suggests possible alternatives. The beginning point of this analysis is the observation that the existing definition of an increase in downside risk aversion presented by Keenan and Snow (2002, 2009) has a serious defect. Keenan and Snow define v(x) to be more downside risk averse than u(x) whenever v(x) = (u(x)) and '''(u) 0. While this definition appears to be a very natural one, and is well defended in Keenan and Snow’s analysis, the partial order over utility functions characterized by this definition is not transitive. That is, w(x) more downside risk averse than v(x) and v(x) more downside risk averse than u(x) does not imply w(x) is more downside risk averse than u(x) by this definition of increasing downside risk aversion. 2 This lack of transitivity makes it impossible to find a measure of the strength or intensity of downside risk aversion to associate with this definition of increasing downside risk aversion. In order to add to rather than just be critical of the discussion surrounding increased downside risk aversion, this definition must be replaced by one which is transitive. The first step taken here to do this is to establish a connection between increases in downside risk and the slope of absolute risk aversion, the link that MGT fail to identify. Once this link is established, it is natural to use the slope of absolute risk aversion as a possible way to define a partial order indicating when one decision maker is more downside risk averse than another, and also to develop a measure of downside risk aversion. 3 The connection between DARA and increases in downside risk that is demonstrated here is that CDF F(x) is preferred or indifferent to an equal-mean CDF G(x) for all utility functions displaying DARA if and only if G(x) is an increase in downside risk from F(x). This finding is demonstrated using a general theorem that holds for any mean preserving change in a random variable. The general theorem indicates that a mean preserving change increases (decreases) expected utility for all decision makers with u'''(x) > 0 if and only if the change also increases (decreases) expected utility for all decision makers displaying DARA. This generalizes a finding by Fishburn and Vickson (1978) concerning stochastic dominance. Fishburn and Vickson show that third degree stochastic dominance (TSD) and DARA stochastic dominance are equivalent concepts when the means of the random alternatives are equal to one another. Once DARA is associated with aversion to downside risk increases, the slope of absolute risk aversion is then used to provide an alternate definition of increased downside risk aversion. This definition generates a transitive, asymmetric partial order over utility functions. Corresponding to this partial order is both a measure of the intensity of downside risk aversion, and also a definition of an expected utility preserving downside increase in risk. Greater downside risk aversion according to the slope of the absolute risk aversion measure is demonstrated to be a necessary and sufficient condition for aversion to such an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk. Following the use of the slope of absolute risk aversion as a basis for defining a partial order and measure for downside risk aversion, other definitions and results are given using the well known concept of prudence instead. Similar steps are taken when doing this. First, the literature has already established the connection between prudence and aversion to downside risk 4 increases and “more prudent” has previously been suggested as a possible way to define a partial order and measure for increased downside risk aversion. This prudence related definition yields a transitive, asymmetric partial order over utility functions. What is added in this analysis is yet a third definition for an expected utility preserving downside risk increase. For this definition, being more prudent is a necessary and sufficient condition for aversion to an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk. The paper is organized as follows. First the results concerning increases in downside risk are briefly reviewed and the notation and assumptions used in the paper are established. The definition given by MGT and the theorems associating aversion to downside risk increases with the third derivative of utility are presented. Next, the Keenan and Snow definition of increasing downside risk aversion is reviewed and its failure to lead to a transitive or asymmetric partial order over risk preferences is discussed. Following this, a theorem is presented that shows that aversion to an increase in downside risk is also characterized by DARA. DARA is then used to define one decision maker being more downside risk averse than another. Next, an alternate way to extend MGT’s definition of a downside increase in risk to an expected utility preserving downside increase in risk is given. A theorem is provided connecting the new definition of increasing downside risk aversion with this definition of an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk. Following this, it is noted that prudence also characterizes downside risk aversion and more prudent is used to define increasing downside risk aversion. An expected utility preserving increase in risk is defined so that an increase in downside risk is avoided by all decision makers more prudent than the reference person. The paper concludes with discussion of 5 the findings in the paper, and the comparison of using the slope of absolute risk aversion with size of prudence when defining an increase in downside risk aversion. 2. Downside Risk Increases, Downside Risk Aversion and More Downside Risk Aversion Menezes, Geiss and Tressler (1980) define an increase in downside risk using combinations of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970) mean preserving spreads and contractions. The definition they present requires that these increases and decreases in risk occur in such a way that risk is unambiguously transferred from the right to the left in the support of the random variable. The total amount of risk is left unchanged. MGT then show that this intuitive definition can be characterized by conditions on the cumulative distribution functions, F(x) and G(x), representing the two random alternatives. These conditions on the CDFs are given below and are used here as the MGT definition of an increase in downside risk. Definition 1: CDF G(x) has more downside risk than F(x) if and only if: - a) b) y x a a G s – F s ds dx for all y in [a, b] with equality holding at y = b and > 0 holding for some y in (a, b). In this definition the supports of the random variables are assumed to be contained in a finite interval denoted [a, b] and that assumption is maintained here. The first condition, part a), requires the two random alternatives to have the same mean value. The second condition defines a downside risk increase in that it requires the risk increases to unambiguously occur to the left of the risk decreases. The condition that equality holds at y = b requires the risk changes in total 6 to add to zero; that is, the risk increases and decreases are equal in size. The profession has accepted this definition and characterization of an increase in downside risk. Following this characterization of an increase in downside risk, MGT demonstrate the following theorem. This theorem provides one link between downside risk increases and aversion to those increases by decision makers with utility functions displaying a positive third derivative. Theorem 1: F(x) is preferred or indifferent to G(x) for all decision makers with u(x) satisfying u'''(x) > 0 if and only if G(x) has more downside risk than F(x). Keenan and Snow (2009) demonstrate a general theorem for expected utility preserving downside risk increases, which for the special case of u'(x) = 1, reduces to Theorem 2 given below. This theorem also provides a link between downside risk increases and the third derivative of utility. Theorem 2: All increases in downside risk result in lower expected utility for u(x) if and only if u'''(x) 0. Keenan and Snow assume a weak rather than strong inequality on the third derivative of utility, and also assume that u(x) is positively monotonic, a condition which MGT do not assume. This assumption, that u'(x) > 0, is also made here so that division by zero is not an issue when examining the measure of absolute risk aversion. These two theorems clearly establish a connection between downside risk aversion and the sign of the third derivative of utility. As a 7 result the sign of the third derivative of utility has been an important feature of the extensions of the work of MGT. Keenan and Snow (K-S) (2009) note that u''(x) 0 characterizes risk aversion and that Pratt (1964) has shown that ''(u) 0 when v(x) = (u(x)) characterizes increased risk aversion. Using this, and the fact that u'''(x) 0 characterizes downside risk aversion, quite naturally K-S suggest the following definition of increasing downside risk aversion. Definition 2: A decision maker with utility function v(x) is more downside risk averse than a decision maker with utility function u(x) if and only if v(x) = (u(x)) where the transformation function (u) satisfies '''(u) 0. Keenan and Snow go on to support this definition with extensive analysis. They also expend considerable effort in attempting to obtain a measure of downside risk aversion that is consistent with this definition of increasing downside risk aversion. They finally settle on a measure denoted s(x), but find a uniformly larger s(x) is only a sufficient, not a necessary and sufficient condition for a utility function to be more downside risk averse. K-S conclude that “there is no measure that fully characterizes greater downside risk aversion.” p.1097). Upon examining Definition 2 further, it becomes apparent that this definition does not lead to a transitive or asymmetric partial order over utility functions. That is, if w(x) is more downside risk averse than v(x) and v(x) is more downside risk averse than u(x) then it need not be the case that w(x) is more downside risk averse than u(x). Furthermore, there exist distinct utility functions such that each is more downside risk averse than the other. 8 To show that transitivity does not hold for Definition 2, one can verify that when v(x) = u x and w x = ψ v x then ψ◦)''' = ψ''''3+3ψ'''''+ ψ''''. Thus, ψ''' v 0 and '''(u) 0 cannot guarantee ψ◦)''' 0 in general. For example, let (u) = u1/2, ψ v = v3, and therefore ψ◦)(u) = u3/2. Then ψ◦)'''(u) < 0 even though ''' u > and ψ''' v > . Additionally, Definition 2 makes it possible for two distinct decision makers to each be more downside risk averse than the other. That is, the partial order over risk preferences is not asymmetric. To see this let u(x) = ecx and v(x) = edx. This implies that (u) takes the form (u) = ud/c. It can be readily checked that '''(u) > 0 for both d/c = 3 and d/c = 1/3. Therefore the two distinct utility functions e3x and ex are each strictly more downside risk averse than the other under Definition 2.3 This lack of transitivity and asymmetry are serious flaws for orders. Furthermore, because the partial order is not transitive, there cannot be a numerical intensity measure for downside risk aversion that is associated with Definition 2. In order to add to the discussion of increased downside risk aversion, Definition 2 must be replaced by one that is transitive. The next section uses more decreasing absolute risk averse to define increased downside risk aversion. First, to justify this definition, a connection is established between aversion to downside risk and decreasing absolute risk aversion. 3. DARA and Downside Risk Aversion As mentioned in the introduction, the theorem that is presented next applies to all mean preserving changes in random variables and is related to one demonstrated by Meyer and Meyer (2010) and also to a stochastic dominance finding by Fishburn and Vickson (1978). Fishburn and Vickson show that when the means of the random alternatives are the same, third degree stochastic dominance (TSD) and DARA stochastic dominance are equivalent concepts. The 9 proof of the theorem presented here is brief and quite different from that provided by Fishburn and Vickson. In way of notation, assume that u'(x) > 0 represents any positive marginal utility function4 and let Au(x) = - '' denote the associated absolute risk aversion measure. The slope of ' absolute risk aversion is given by Au'(x) = - ''' ' '' . No assumption is made ' concerning the sign of u''(x). With this notation, the following theorem is presented. Theorem 3: For any H(x) such that ' only if ' , for all u'''(x) > 0 if and for all Au'(x) < 0. Proof: First the well known part. u'''(x) > 0 is a necessary condition for Au'(x) < 0, therefore when ' the other direction, assume ' ' for all u'''(x) > 0 then for all Au'(x) < 0. To show for all Au'(x) < 0 and let u'(x) be any marginal utility function with u'''(x) > 0. Consider the family of marginal utility functions (u'(x) + k) for any k 0. For this family of marginal utility functions, for all k 0. This follows because ' = ' . The slope of the absolute risk aversion measure for marginal utility (u'(x) + k) is: - ''' ' + '' ' . For k large enough, the sign of this slope is the opposite of the sign of u'''(x). Thus, if u'''(x) > 0, then the sign of this slope is negative and ' 0 for this marginal utility (u'(x) + k), and therefore for u'(x) 10 as well. A magnitude for k exceeding the value of: '' ''' - u'(x) for all x is sufficiently large for the signs of Au'(x) and u'''(x) to be opposite of one another. QED As in the Fishburn and Vickson analysis, the key assumption is that , which when H(x) = G(x) - F(x), implies that the random alternatives with CDFs F(x) and G(x) have the same mean. Of course condition a) in the MGT definition of an increase in downside risk requires those increases to be mean preserving. Theorem 4 given below is obtained directly from Theorem 1 and Theorem 3. Theorem 4: For distributions with the same mean, F(x) is preferred or indifferent to G(x) for all decision makers with u(x) such that Au'(x) < 0 if and only if G(x) has more downside risk than F(x). Theorem 4 establishes a link between aversion to increases in downside risk and the slope of the absolute risk aversion function. This connection suggests using this slope to define what it means for one decision maker to be more downside risk averse than another. This is carried out next. Definition 3: A decision maker with utility function v(x) is more downside risk averse than a decision maker with utility function u(x) if and only if -Av'(x) > -Au'(x) for all x in [a, b], where Av'(x) and Au'(x) are the slopes of the absolute risk aversion functions for v(x) and u(x), respectively. 11 To show that Definition 3 is transitive is straightforward. If -Aw'(x) > -Av'(x), and -Av'(x) > -Au'(x), then -Aw'(x) > -Au'(x). Quite obviously, Definition 3 does lead to an asymmetric partial order over risk preferences as well. In addition, Definition 3 is also very easy to check. That is, given utility functions u(x) and v(x), it is easy to determine whether one is more downside risk averse than the other. This is in contrast to verifying that '''(u) 0 which, as Keenan and Snow point out, may be difficult. In fact, K-S attempt to characterize Definition 2 using downside risk aversion measure namely s(x) = ''' ' - '' and succeed in ' showing that sv(x) su(x) is a sufficient, but not necessary condition for v(x) = (u(x)) with '''(u) 0. For the example given earlier to illustrate the lack of asymmetry, the s(x) associated with e3x is - 4.5 for all x while that associated with ex is - .5. Thus, the sufficient condition sv(x) su(x) for all x indicates that ex is more downside risk averse than e3x by Definition 2, but fails to indicate that e3x is also more downside risk averse than ex. Associated with Definition 3 is a measure of downside risk aversion namely the negative of the slope of absolute risk aversion, -Au'(x). This may or may not be a good measure of the intensity of downside risk aversion. It is, however, related to two of the more prominent suggested measures of downside risk aversion. To see this note that -Au'(x) = ''' -( ' '' ' )2 . Thus, this measure of downside risk aversion lies between the measure proposed by Modica and Scarsini who suggest d(x) = ''' ' , and that given by K-S, s(x) = ''' ' - '' ' .5 While Definition 3 is a simple and natural way to define when one decision maker is more downside risk averse than another, a different necessary and sufficient condition proves to 12 be more useful when demonstrating propositions based on Definition 3. This necessary and sufficient condition applies to the marginal utility functions for u(x) and v(x), rather than the utility functions themselves. Of course, since utility is unique to a positive linear transformation, marginal utility completely characterizes risk preferences. Meyer (2010) discusses this in more detail. Let marginal utility v'(x) = '(x)·u'(x); that is, let v'(x) be written as the product of two functions, one being marginal utility u'(x), and another function '(x). Of course, for any given u'(x) and v'(x), '(x) = ' ' . Also in Keenan and Snow’s formulation, '(x) = '(u(x)). Recall that u'(x), v'(x) and hence '(x) are all assumed to be positive. When marginal utilities are related this way, v'(x) = '(x)·u'(x), simple calculation shows that the absolute risk aversion measures associated with these three marginal functions satisfy Av(x) = Au(x) + A(x). That is, the absolute risk aversion measure associated with a marginal utility function v'(x) is the sum of the absolute risk aversion measures associated with u'(x) and '(x). This relationship between absolute risk aversion measures makes it very easy to specify when v'(x) represents more decreasingly absolute risk averse risk preferences than u'(x). What is required is that the slope of A(x) be less than zero. In fact, -Av'(x) > -Au'(x) for all x in [a, b] if and only if A'(x) < 0 for all x in [a, b]. Thus, the definition of increased downside risk aversion can be restated as: marginal utility v'(x) displays more downside risk aversion than u'(x) if and only if '(x) displays decreasing absolute risk aversion. This working definition of increased downside risk aversion is used often in the various demonstrations presented here.6 4. Expected Utility Preserving Increases in Downside Risk 13 Definition 3 flows quite naturally from Theorem 4 which states the fact that for mean preserving changes DARA is a necessary and sufficient condition on risk preferences for aversion to the downside risk increases defined by MGT. Associated with this new definition of increasing downside risk aversion is an alternate definition of an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk. This new definition is both an extension of the definition of an increase in downside risk given by MGT, and is also expected utility preserving for an arbitrary reference decision maker. Moreover, this alternative definition of expected utility preserving downside risk increases is paired with Definition 3 in that when an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk for a reference decision maker occurs, all those more downside risk averse than this person are averse to the change. Definition 4: For a decision maker with marginal utility u'(x), G(x) is an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk from F(x) if and only if: a) b) - ' ' – for all y in [a, b] with equality holding at y = b and > 0 holding for some y in (a, b). When Definition 4 is compared with Definition 1 presented by MGT, the only difference is the u'(x) in the expressions. The original MGT definition of an increase in downside risk treats the risk neutral person (u'(x) = 1) as a reference decision maker. Thus, it is confirmed that Definition 4 is indeed an extension of the definition of an increase in downside risk given by MGT. In addition, since condition a) requires that expected utility be the same for F(x) and G(x) for the reference decision maker, this definition is an extension to the expected utility preserving 14 case. Thus, the extension proposed here is an alternative to that given and used by Keenan and Snow, who also extend the MGT definition to the expected utility preserving case. Before comparing these two alternative extensions, a theorem connecting Definition 3 with Definition 4, the two new DARA based definitions, is presented and demonstrated. Theorem 5: For expected utility preserving changes, F(x) is preferred or indifferent to G(x) for all decision makers v(x) who are more downside risk averse (Definition 3) than u(x) if and only if G(x) is an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk (Definition 4) from F(x) for u(x). Proof: First note that Theorem 4 is a special case of Theorem 5 when the reference decision maker, represented by u(x) in Theorem 5, is risk-neutral or u'(x) = 1. Since Theorem 4 is obtained directly from Theorems 1 and 3, the strategy here is to first generalize Theorem 1 to the case of expected utility preserving downside risk increases, which is Lemma 1 stated and proven in the Appendix, and then use Lemma 1 and Theorem 3 to prove Theorem 5. As previously pointed out, for any two utility functions u(x) and v(x) related by v'(x) = '(x)·u'(x), A'(x) < 0 is necessary and sufficient for v(x) to be more downside risk averse than u(x). So the “if” part of Theorem 5 is immediately obtained from Lemma 1 by noting that A'(x) < 0 implies '''(x) > 0. For the “only if” part, suppose a change from F(x) to G(x) is expected utility preserving for u(x) and reduces expected utility for all v(x) who are more downside risk averse than u(x). That is, ' - 15 and for all v(x) with v'(x) = '(x)·u'(x) and A'(x) < 0, - ' and '(x) above as H(x) and u'(x) in Theorem 3, respectively, we - Treating ' . have, according to Theorem 3, - ' for all '''(x) > 0. This, applying Lemma 1 once again, implies G(x) is an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk from F(x) for u(x). QED A corollary to this result which extends Theorem 2 is: Corollary 1: All expected utility preserving increases in downside risk (Definition 4) with u(x) as the reference decision maker result in lower expected utility for any decision maker who is more downside risk averse than u(x) (Definition 3). Definition 4 gives an alternative to the K-S definition of an expected utility preserving downside risk increase. Theorem 5 relates this definition to the DARA based definition for an increase in downside risk aversion. For expected utility preserving changes, this alternative provides a necessary and sufficient condition for those who are more downside risk averse by the DARA definition to not prefer an expected utility preserving downside risk increase. While both our definition and that of K-S extend the definition of MGT, and both preserve expected utility for a reference decision maker with utility u(x) or marginal utility u'(x), the two definitions differ. The K-S definition requires that ' ' – for all y in [a, b] 16 while the definition given here, Definition 4, requires that ' – for all y in [a, b] instead. These two restrictions are not in general the same as one another. Each definition is for an expected utility preserving downside increase in risk, and is constructed so that a theorem concerning the effect of these risk increases on those more downside risk averse than a reference person can be determined. That is, each is defined to match or be paired with an existing definition of what an increase in downside risk aversion is. Since the partial order over risk preferences associated with the definition of an increase in downside risk aversion associated with '''(u(x)) 0 is not transitive, the matching Keenan and Snow definition of an expected utility preserving downside risk increase has a weak partner. On the other hand, Definition 4 given here corresponds to the transitive DARA based definition of increased downside risk aversion, Definition 3. The Keenan and Snow definition of an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk ensures that the utility distributions associated with F(x) and G(x) for the reference person are not only equal in mean, but also satisfy the original downside risk increase definition of MGT. Thus, the variance of the utility distribution is preserved, and the risk increases occur to the left of the risk decreases and are equal in size in utility space. The condition that ' – for all y in [a, b] in Definition 4 has quite a different interpretation. Since there is no transformation of the utility function of the reference person involved in the definition of more downside risk averse, the utility distributions associated with F(x) and G(x) do not play a role. Instead, the focus shifts to the properties of risk adjusted probability distributions associated with F(x) and G(x). Consider the expression 17 u'(x)(G(x) – F( x)), this expression behaves much like the difference between two cumulative distribution functions, with adjustments that are determined by the marginal utility function of the reference decision maker. u'(x)(G(x) – F( x))] changes sign at exactly the same points as [G(x) – F(x)]. With proper normalization u'(x)(G(x) – F( x)) can be used to define the difference between two CDFs. The normalization is required to ensure that the total increase and decrease are less than or equal to one. For some t > 0, (x) – (x) = t[u'(x)(G(x) – F( x))] defines the difference between two CDFs. An example and further discussion of this is given in the Appendix. 5. Prudence and Downside Risk Aversion Prudence, defined as u''' > 0, is shown by Leland (1968) to characterize the motive to save for future uncertainty. Kimball (1990) and others have used P(x) = - ''' '' to measure the intensity of prudence. Kimball shows that the precautionary saving is larger the more prudent an individual is. Since MGT connect prudence to downside risk aversion, the role of the prudence measure in downside risk aversion has also been explored. Chiu (2005) shows that, under certain conditions, an individual dislikes any mean-preserving and variance-decreasing stochastic change that preserves the expected utility for another individual if and only if the former has a larger prudence than the latter everywhere.7 Jindapon and Neilson (2007) demonstrate that an individual is willing to pay a higher utility cost to move to a payoff distribution with a lower downside risk if and only if the individual is uniformly more prudent. More recently, Keenan and Snow (2010) explore the relationship between greater prudence and their greater downside 18 risk aversion according to Definition 2. They find that greater prudence implies greater downside risk aversion only under some strong restrictions on utility functions. The analysis in this section starts with a definition of increased downside risk aversion that is based on the prudence measure. It then establishes a close relationship between this version of increased downside risk aversion and a corresponding concept of expected utility preserving downside risk increases. The labeling of the definitions and theorems is meant to correspond to the similar DARA related definitions and theorems. Definition 3': A decision maker with utility function v(x) is more downside risk averse than a decision maker with utility function u(x) if and only if Pv(x) > Pu(x) for all x in [a, b], where Pv(x) and Pu(x) are the prudence measures for v(x) and u(x), respectively. This definition yields a transitive and asymmetric partial order over utility functions. Associated with this is a definition of an expected utility preserving downside risk increase. When and are either both risk averse or both risk loving in [a, b], an assumption we will maintain in this section, define (u) such that ' ' . The following lemma relates the sign of the second order derivative of the transformation function with prudence-based more downside risk aversion: Lemma 2: v(x) is more downside risk averse than u(x) in [a, b] if and only if ''(u' u'' < 0 in [a, b]. Proof: From ' ' , we have v'' = 'u'' and v''' = ''u''2 + 'u''', which in turn yield ' v u u . Obviously, Pv(x) > Pu(x) if and only if ''(u' u'' < 0. v u QED 19 Definition 4': For a decision maker u(x), G(x) is an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk from F(x) if and only if: - a) b) '' – for all y in [a, b] with equality holding at y = b and < holding for some y in (a, b). Two observations can be immediately made about Definition 4'. First, Definition 1 is a special case of Definition 4' when '' ' - - . Second, a) and b) imply that . So the change from F(x) to G(x) is indeed expected utility preserving for u(x) and is an extension of the definition of a downside risk increase given by MGT. The following proposition, which is more general than Theorem 1, establishes a close relationship between Definition 3' and Definition 4'. The proof is in the Appendix. Theorem 5': F(x) is preferred or indifferent to G(x) for all decision makers v(x) who are more downside risk averse (Definition 3') than u(x) if and only if G(x) is an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk from F(x) ( Definition 4') for u(x). The following proposition, which is more general than Theorem 2, also establishes a close relationship between Definition 3' and Definition 4'. Note that it is “if” in Corollary 1, but is “if and only if” in Corollary 1'. The proof is in the Appendix. 20 Corollary 1': All expected utility preserving increases in downside risk (Definition 4') with u(x) as the reference decision maker result in lower expected utility for a decision maker v(x) if and only if v(x) is more downside risk averse than u(x) (Definition 3'). 6. Discussion and Conclusion This paper explores the role of decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) and prudence in defining and analyzing increased downside risk aversion and expected utility preserving downside risk increases. It begins by closing a gap in the work of Menezes, Geiss and Tressler (1980) and establishing a close relationship between DARA and downside risk aversion. Specifically, the analysis here shows that, for two random distributions with the same mean, one is preferred or indifferent to another for all decision makers displaying DARA if and only if the latter is an increase in downside risk from the former (Theorem 4). From there, alternative DARA-based definitions have been given for two important concepts, increases in downside risk aversion and expected utility preserving increases in downside risk. The first replaces a definition that has serious flaws in that the partial order over utility functions that it yields is not transitive or asymmetric. The second is defined to be paired with the first. Theorem 5 verifies the relationship between the two new definitions. These alternative DARA based definitions are compared to the existing ones due to Keenan and Snow (2009). Keenan and Snow emphasize the fact that their definitions build upon and extend to downside risk and downside risk aversion many of the same things that were first presented for risk and risk aversion. The same is true for the two definitions given here. To emphasize this, a paragraph from Keenan and Snow’s introduction (2009, p 1093) is repeated 21 and modified. Their discussion concerning v(x) = (u(x)) is replaced with similar discussion involving v'(x) = '(x)·u'(x). Although their language is borrowed, Keenan and Snow are not quoted directly, so quotation marks are omitted. Using their exact language as much as possible is intentional in order to make the point that the DARA based definitions given here are also natural extensions of the analysis leading to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion and R-S definition of increasing risk. The paragraph is the following: We provide an analysis of downside risk aversion that mirrors the standard results for risk aversion. Specifically, a marginal utility function u' is risk averse if u'' < 0 and v' = '·u' is more risk averse than u' if the function ' is, itself, risk averse, that is, A(x) > 0. In like manner, u' is downside risk averse if Au' < 0, and we say that v' is more downside risk averse than u' if A' < 0. Given arbitrary functions u and v, verifying these properties of the function ' is an easy and a straightforward exercise. For the case of risk aversion, the condition A(x) > 0 is equivalent to Av(x) > Au(x). For downside risk aversion, A'(x) < 0 is equivalent to v' being more downside risk averse than u'. Because the DARA based definition of an increase in downside risk aversion leads to a measure of downside risk aversion intensity that has weaknesses (Footnote 5), a prudence based definition of greater downside risk aversion is given as well. This definition also yields a transitive and asymmetric partial order over utility functions. This paper demonstrates global 22 properties of the prudence based order by linking it to yet another definition of an expected utility preserving downside risk increase, Theorem 5' and Corollary 1'. 23 Appendix A1. Lemma 1 Lemma 1: F(x) is preferred or indifferent to G(x) for all decision makers v'(x) = '(x)·u'(x) with '''(x) > 0 if and only if G(x) is an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk from F(x) for u(x). Proof: The proof follows the similar steps in MGT’s proof of Theorem 1. Using v' x = '(x)·u'(x), - ' EFv(x) - EGv(x) = = - ' . (The “only if” part) Suppose EFv(x) EGv(x) for all '''(x) > 0. Let 1 x = θx3 /3 + x and 2 x = θx3 /3 – x where θ > . Since 1'''(x) = 2'''(x) > 0, we have b a b a ( x 2 1)u ( x)(G( x) F ( x))dx 0 ( x 2 1)u ( x)(G( x) F ( x))dx 0 which continues to hold as θ approaches zero. So ' - '' ' = 0, which is a) in Definition 4. ' Note that when EFv(x) - EGv(x) = ' - = 0, .= - - . Now let 3 x = θx3 /3 + x2/2 and 4 x = θx3 /3 – x2/2 where θ > . Since 3'''(x) = 4'''(x) > 0, we have 24 b x a a b x a a (2 x 1) u ( s)(G ( s) F ( s))dsdx 0 (2 x 1) u ( s)(G ( s) F ( s))dsdx 0 which continue to hold as θ approaches zero. So – ' , which is the equality part of b) in Definition 4. - ' With ''' EFv(x) - EGv(x) = – ' = 0 and – ' , . We prove the weak inequality of b) by contradiction. Assume – ' [α, β], such that for some y0 in [a,b]. Then there exists an interval in [a, b], – ' x3 / 6, 5 ( x) 3 x / 6, for all y in [α, β]. Therefore, for x [ , ] otherwise , EFv(x) - EGv x < for sufficiently small θ. Because 5'''(x) > 0, that contradicts the original assumption that EFv(x) Moreover, EGv(x) for all '''(x) > 0. – ' for some y in (a, b) as long as G(x) and F(x) are not identical. (The “if” part) Suppose G(x) is an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk from F(x) for u(x). Then, EFv(x) - EGv(x) = QED ''' ' – 0 for all ''' > 0. 25 A2. Risk Adjusted Cumulative Distribution Functions For continuously differentiable CDFs, note that the derivative of u'(x)(G(x) – F( x)) is u'(g – f) + u''(G – F), where f and g are the densities associated with CDFs F and G. First assume u'' 0. Then u'·g + u''·G 0 and u'·f + u''·F 0. These two expressions can be density functions if the probabilities sum to one. Integrate each over [a, b] to find the total value for each is u'(b) and thus the normalizing factor is t = 1/u'(b). Next assume u'' < 0 and consider u'·g + u''·F 0 and u'·f + u''·G 0. Again these can be density functions if the probabilities add to one. Because ' '' - ' - '' , ' '' = ' '' = 1/t is the normalizing factor. The probability distributions for these random variables have been “adjusted” by the reference decision maker with marginal utility u'(x) so that the means of (x) and (x) are the same. That is, they are risk adjusted so that for this person the choice between them depends only on their mean values. It is also the case that the conditions in Definition 4 imply that (x) is a downside increase in risk from (x) by the original MGT definition. Thus, the function u'(x)(G(x) – F( x)), properly normalized, adjusts the random alternatives associated with G(x) and F(x) so that he or she can act as risk neutral person and choose between them based only on the mean values. This leads to an interpretation of Theorem 5. This theorem indicates that for those who are more downside risk averse than the person doing this risk adjustment, that is, those who are more decreasingly absolute risk averse than u'(x), this risk adjustment is not sufficient and (x) is preferred or indifferent to (x). Consider the following example for F(x) and G(x) defined on [0, 1]. 26 Let G(x) = and F(x) = 0 .4x .4x + .6 1 x<0 0 x < .75 .75 x < 1 x1 0 .8x .6 1 x < .25 .25 x < .75 .75 x < 1 x1 This implies that 0 G(x) – F(x) = .4x -.4x .4x 0 x<0 0 x < .25 .25 x < .75 .75 x < 1 x1 Consider utility function u(x) = ln x so that u'(x) = 1/x. This implies that u'(x)(G(x) – F(x)) = 0 .4 -.4 .4 0 x<0 0 x < .25 .25 x < .75 .75 x < 1 x1 This sum of the increases (or decreases) for u'(x)(G(x) – F(x)) is 1.2 which is greater than 1 so a scaling factor less than or equal to 1/1.2 is needed to allow u'(x)(G(x) – F(x)) to represent the difference the difference between two CDFs. These rescaled CDFs are given below and can be viewed as the difference between two risk adjusted CDFs where person with utility u(x) = ln x has adjusted CDFs F(x) and G(x) so that they have equal mean values. For that person the ranking of the two CDFs is the same, but for those more decreasing absolute risk averse, the adjustment is not sufficient, and (x) is preferred or indifferent to (x). 27 0 1/3 -1/3 1/3 0 (x) – (x) = x<0 0 x < .25 .25 x < .75 .75 x < 1 x1 A3. Proof of Theorem 5' Proof: The “if” part Suppose that G(x) is an expected utility preserving increase in downside risk from F(x) for u(x). Then for any utility function v(x), '' = = – '' EFv(x) - EGv(x) = – '' – '' . where the first equality is due to a) and the third equality due to b) in Definition 4'. Also from b) in Definition 4', – '' downside risk averse than u(x) – for all x. Therefore, v(x) being more '' < 0 according to Lemma 2 – implies EFv(x) - EGv(x) . The “only if” part Suppose u(x) is risk averse. The case in which u(x) is risk loving can be similarly dealt with. Now suppose that F(x) is preferred or indifferent to G(x) for all risk averse decision makers v(x) who are more downside risk averse than u(x). That is EFv(x) EGv(x) = ' – ' – for all such that 28 Let ' be θ ' 2 +1 and θ ' 2 -1, respectively, where θ > . That the above inequality holds for both ' and for all positive θ implies - = 0, which is a) in Definition 4'. - With = 0, we have EFv(x) - EGv(x) ' . Let ' be θ ' 2 + ' and θ ' – – 2 - ', respectively, where θ > . Again, that this inequality holds for these ' and for all positive θ implies – - With - EGv(x) = , which is the equality in b in Definition 4’. '' Moreover, , we have EFv(x) . For all >0, which implies – '' – '' – = 0 and , the weak inequality of b) in Definition 4'. – '' for some y in (a, b) as long as G(x) and F(x) are not identical. QED A4. Proof of Corollary 1' Proof: Suppose v(x) is more downside risk averse than u(x). Then for any expected utility preserving increase in downside risk from F(x) to G(x) with u(x) as the reference decision maker, = = – '' EFv(x) - EGv(x) = '' ''' – '' '' – . where the first equality is due to a) and the third equality due to b) in Definition 4'. 29 If we further assume that v''(x) u''(x) > 0 in [a,b], then v(x) is more downside risk averse than u(x) implies '''(y) y a '' x a 0. Therefore EFv(x) - EGv(x) G s – F s ds dx since according to b) in Definition 4'. Conversely, if EFv(x) - EGv(x) for all expected utility preserving downside risk increases with u(x) as the reference decision maker, then it has to be the case that '''(y) and v(x) is more downside risk averse than u(x) (with the additional assumption that v''(x) u''(x) > 0 in [a, b]). The proof of this is by contradiction with arguments parallel to those in Keenan and Snow (2009). Suppose '''(y) > 0 at some point y0 in [a, b]. Then there would exist a surrounding interval within [a, b] on which '''(y) , which implies by choosing G(x) - F(x) to be concentrated on the same interval, one would obtain EFv(x) - EGv(x) initial assumption that EFv(x) - EGv(x) . , contradicting the QED 30 References W.H. Chiu, Skewness preferences, risk aversion, and the precedence relationships on stochastic changes, Manage. Sci. 51 (2005) 1816-1828. D. Crainich, L. Eeckhoudt, On the intensity of downside risk aversion, J. Risk Uncertainty 36 (2008) 267-276. M. Denuit, L. Eeckhoudt, A general index of absolute risk attitude, Manage. Sci. 56 (2010) 712715. L. Eeckhoudt, H. Schlesinger, Putting risk in its proper place, Amer. Econ. Rev. 96 (2006) 280289. P. Fishburn, R. Vickson, Theoretical foundations of stochastic dominance, in G. Whitmore and M. Findlay (eds.), Stochastic Dominance: An Approach to Decision-Making Under Risk (1978), Lexington Books, D.C. Heath and Company: Lexington, Massachusetts. P. Jindapon, W. Neilson, Higher-order generalizations of Arrow-Pratt and Ross risk aversion: A comparative statics approach, J. Econ. Theory 136 (2007) 719-728. D. Keenan, A. Snow, Greater downside risk aversion, J. Risk Uncertainty 24 (2002) 267-277. D. Keenan, A. Snow, Greater downside risk aversion in the large, J. Econ. Theory 144 (2009) 1092-1101. D. Keenan, A. Snow, Greater prudence and greater downside risk aversion, J. Econ. Theory 145 (2010) 2018-2026. M. Kimball, Precautionary saving in the small and in the large, Econometrica 58 (1990) 53-73. H. Leland, Saving and uncertainty: the precautionary demand for saving, Quart. J. Econ. 82 (1968) 465-473. C. Menezes, C. Geiss, J. Tressler, Increasing downside risk, Amer. Econ. Rev. 70 (1980) 921932. S. Modica, M. Scarsini, A note on comparative downside risk aversion, J. Econ. Theory 122 (2005) 267-271. D. Meyer, J. Meyer, A Diamond-Stiglitz approach to the demand for self-protection, J. Risk Uncertainty 42 (2010) 45-60. 31 J. Meyer, Representing risk preferences in expected utility based decision models, Annals of Operations Research, ," Annals of Operations Research 176 (2010) 179-190. J. Pratt, Risk aversion in the small and in the large, Econometrica 32 (1964) 122-136. M. Rothschild, J. Stiglitz, Increasing risk I: A definition, J. Econ. Theory 2 (1970) 225-243. * The authors thank Louis Eeckhoudt and Harris Schlesinger for helpful comments. Support from the Private Enterprise Research Center at Texas A&M University is gratefully acknowledged. 1 Menezes, Geiss and Tressler say that “It is natural to expect an individual to be averse to downside risk if he is decreasingly risk averse.” An example provided later in the paper also shows that the '''(u) 0 based definition allows distinct u(x) and v(x) to each be more downside risk averse than the other. Thus, the definition is not asymmetric either. 2 - 3 If risk averse functions are desired, v(x) = -e dx, u(x) = -e example. -cx and (u) = -(-u) d/c provides an almost identical 4 Because not all functions have integrals of closed form, it may not be possible to determine the u(x) associated with marginal utility u'(x). 5 All these measures of the intensity of downside risk aversion have some desirable as well as undesirable properties. See Crainich and Eeckhoudt (2008) for the desirable properties of d(x), Keenan and Snow (2002, 2009) for the desirable properties of s(x). An undesirable property shared by s(x) and -Au'(x) here is that the intensity measure of downside risk aversion may be inconsistent with the direction of downside risk aversion. For example, quadratic utility functions are downside risk neutral (because u'''=0), but s(x) < 0 and -Au'(x) < 0. In the case of constant absolute risk averse utility functions, the direction of downside risk aversion is positive (meaning decision makers with these utility functions are downside risk averse) while the intensity measure is zero for -Au'(x) and negative for s(x). 6 Notice that this same use of marginal utility can be made when discussing when one decision maker is more risk averse than another. It is the case that v'(x) is more risk averse than u'(x) if and only if A (x) 0. This provides an additional characterization of the Arrow-Pratt definition of more risk averse. 7 Denuit and Eeckhoudt 2 1 extend Chiu’s analysis to higher order risk aversion.
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz