International Atomic Energy Agency
Nuclear Arms in the Middle East
Written By: Sahil Patel and Eddie Taufer
South Jersey Model United Nations 2015
Introduction
For decades, hostility has plagued the nations of the Middle East. With the increased tension,
a nuclear weapons program of any kind could wreak disastrous results. Many nations in the
Middle East have signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT),
aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, promoting
cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and furthering the goal of achieving
nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament. NPT signatories are not banned
from using nuclear reactors to create energy with the use of low energy uranium; however,
low energy uranium for energy use can be enriched to weapons grade uranium with a single
machine. Not all Middle Eastern nations are NPT signatories; non-NPT signatory nations
may possess a nuclear weapons arsenal. Feeling pressure from surrounding neighboring
states, some nations, such as Iran, are willing to spend hundreds of millions in order to build
a nuclear energy program to better stay as a formidable force in the region. Nations, such as
Russia, have benefitted financially through the selling of nuclear reactors and secrets. Other
countries are worried about the possibility of hidden nuclear weapons programs, masked by
the facade of a nuclear energy program.
Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (NWFZ)
The enactment of the NPT in 1970 fostered the creation of various Nuclear Weapon Free Zones
around the world. These zones, recognized as such by the General Assembly of the United
Nations, are areas that have established, by virtue of a treaty or convention, an absence of
nuclear weapons. International systems of verification and control exist to guarantee compliance
with these weapon-free obligations. Nuclear Weapon Free Zones ensure a complete ban on the
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use, development, employment, testing, and acquisition of nuclear weapons in the region. Each
of these zones are required to be approved by the five Nuclear Weapon States, who are trusted
with providing security to these nations willing to forego their own nuclear arsenal. For example,
Japan exists without a major armed force due to the protection it would receive from the United
States. There are currently 5 NWFZs for the Latin America, Central Asia, Africa, South Pacific
and Southeast Asia regions as well as 3 more covering the Antarctic region, the seabed and outer
space, theoretically protecting 39% of the world population from nuclear threat. Unfortunately,
there has yet to be one set up in the Middle East region.
P5 Nations
The five Nuclear Weapon States, also known as P5 nations for their permanent seats on the
Security Council, include United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom. Not
only does the creation of a NWFZ require recognition by these nations, but also their protection.
The P5 Nations are obliged to secure the ratifying countries against nuclear attacks or threats of
nuclear attack. There are two types of security assurances provided by the Nuclear Weapon
States: positive and negative. A negative assurance promises that nuclear weapons will never be
used against a nation except in retaliation. In contrast, a positive assurance promises that aid will
be given to the protected nation if it is a victim of nuclear attack. In order for the Middle East to
become a NWFZ, the P5 nations must give unanimous consent, an action complicated by their
respective interests and growing desire for oil. Since joining together in 2006, the P5 nations
continue their diplomatic efforts with Iran with regards to its nuclear program.
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Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
Adopted by the United Nations in 1996, the CTBT is a multilateral treaty in which states agreed
to ban all nuclear explosions in all environments. Over 2,000 nuclear tests have been carried out
at different locations around the world, causing concern regarding the radioactive fallout from
these tests. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), headquartered in
Vienna, Austria, is tasked with the responsibility of ensuring compliance with the treaty.
Besides having access to a global network of monitoring systems, the CTBTO can do on-site
inspections of suspicious events. Since the adoption of this treaty, only three nations have
carried out nuclear weapon tests: India, Pakistan, and North Korea. The CTBT was developed
with hopes to prevent nations from developing or improving already-existent forms of nuclear
weaponry.
The Israel Issue
Much information about Israel’s clandestine nuclear program may be inaccurate, since it is based
solely off alleged statements and other possibly dubious evidence. With Israel’s first Prime
Minister, David Ben-Gurion, the nation expressed its desire to obtain nuclear weapons so as to
prevent a recurrence of the Holocaust. In the late 1950’s, with French assistance, Israel built the
Negev Nuclear Research Center to produce weapons-grade plutonium. It was not until the Vela
incident on September 22, 1979, that Israel’s nuclear involvement would be suspected. A
satellite in the South Atlantic Ocean was rumored to have spotted a light originating from a joint
nuclear test by Israel and South Africa; it was a neutron bomb. Israel has not yet signed the NPT
or ratified the CTBT, a cause of concern among Middle Eastern countries. The 2010 NPT
Review Conference resolution singled out Israel as the only regional state that is non signatory to
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the NPT. A nuclear weapon free zone cannot be established in the Middle East if one or more
member states dissent. Consensus with Israel will be required before nuclear weapons can be
banned in the Middle East. Israel has gained the reputation of being the region’s only state
currently in possession of nuclear warheads, a stockpile that could range from 80-400. It has not
been confirmed, due to Israel’s policy of amimut, whereby it neither denies nor accepts
possessing these weapons.
Nuclear Energy in Russia
Following the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, many Western nations feared the
potential for nuclear weapons and materials located throughout the USSR getting into the wrong
hands. As the largest former Soviet Republic, the Russian Federation assumed the USSR’s role
in the NPT and took responsibility for controlling and/or dismantling weapons throughout the
former USSR. Russia’s assistance helped prevent nuclear proliferation in the 1990’s.
The Russian Federation emerged as a nuclear superpower. Russia’s economic collapse renewed
fears of nuclear proliferation. Many feared scientists and officials would sell nuclear materials
and secrets illicitly to countries in the Middle East. However, equally warranted fears may be the
trading of nuclear materials sanctioned by the Russian government, or the trading of materials of
which the government is aware but cannot or will not stop due to a flow of money entering the
severely damaged Russian economy.
Nuclear Energy in Iran
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Iran’s nuclear policy can be traced to insecurity, a result of anti-revolutionary insurgencies after
the 1979 revolution and Iran-Iraq war. Iran sees the United States as a threat to national security
and its hopes of being a regional superpower. Since 2006, the United Nations Security council
has taken action, placing sanctions due to Iran’s continual non-cooperation with the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in allowing inspection of its nuclear facilities. Iran’s plan to gain
nuclear energy can be traced back to three major events.
First, there is the Iran-Iraq war, which took place from 1980-1988. Throughout that conflict,
Iraq had been using chemical weapons, which are classified as weapons of mass destruction.
Fortunately, Iran’s neighbor, Pakistan, who they were allies with, was not a signatory of the
NPT. This allowed Pakistan to develop nuclear weapons, enticing Iran to buy them for
protection.
The second event took place right after the fall of the USSR, with the end of the Cold War. After
the multi decade conflict, the global economy was in a state of distress, especially in nations such
as China and Russia. Both of these nations began selling nuclear reactors to Iran, hoping to see
their economy recover, and the Iranian government agreed to buy them.
The culminating event came as a result of the USSR selling nuclear reactors to Iran. The United
States became suspicious of this activity, even though Iran claimed these reactors were reserved
purely for energy purposes. To add to the rising suspicion, Iran started buying machines in order
to create highly enriched uranium. But, once again, they claimed it was merely for civilian use.
Because Iran is an NPT signatory, it may not have nuclear weapons, so any breach in the
agreement could be subject to punishment. The untrusting United States was forced to place
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sanctions on Iran for its activities, along with any nation aiding with the development of Iran’s
nuclear program.
In the summer of 2002 an Iranian opposition group, The National Council of Resistance of Iran,
released information on two undeclared nuclear facilities, along with information on companies
involved in purchasing material and equipment for Iran’s nuclear program. This reaffirmed the
suspicion of the United States. In late February of 2003 Iran acknowledged that it had failed to
inform the IAEA on its purchase of 1800 kilograms of natural uranium back in 1991, which were
used in experiments.
Repeatedly throughout 2003 the US repeatedly requested the IAEA to find that Iran is in noncompliance with its safeguards obligations and report Iran to the UN Security Council. This
statement was strengthened by IAEA’s environmental sampling at one of the nuclear facilities,
which revealed the presence of two types of high-enriched uranium, suggesting that Iran might
have carried out undeclared enrichment experiments.
In 2004, problems arose once more and Iran was found guilty of hiding information and
conducting nuclear testing.
In February 2006, the IAEA Board of Governors voted to report Iran’s case to the UN Security
Council, after resuming enrichment at Natanz. As a consequence, the UNSC passed resolution
1696, demanding that Iran suspend all enrichment activities, banning the international transfer of
nuclear missile technologies to Iran, and freezing assets of twelve individuals and ten
organizations involved with the Iranian nuclear program.
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The Threat of Nuclear Weapons
Although full-scale nuclear warfare is unlikely to occur in the Middle East, the possession of
such weapons threatens the peace of the region. One threat arises from violations of the NPT,
which has been transgressed by both Syria and Libya. Libya was believed to have undertaken a
secret weapons program, using material supplied by A.Q. Khan, a Pakistani nuclear scientist. In
2007, an Israeli airstrike bombed a Syrian plutonium production reactor, revealing it to the
world. This reactor, at the Al-Kibar site, was reported to the UN Security Council for violating
the Safeguards Agreement.
Another threat arises from airstrikes on nuclear facilities. During times of war, Middle Eastern
nations attempt to halt other nuclear programs by launching airstrikes. The first of these took
place in 1980, and was known as Operation Scorch Sword. Iranian airstrikes damaged Iraq’s
Osirak reactor which was in the process of being built, to stop the development of more nuclear
weapons. Then, in 1981, Israel launched another airstrike, as a part of Operation Opera in Iraq.
Not only attacking Iraq, Israel also launched a preventive strike on Syria, exposing a clandestine
nuclear project. Iraq retaliated in 1984 with the destruction of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant.
Iran and Israel continue to have struggling relations since 1979, due to both nations’ nuclear
programs. In 2010, Israel’s secret service, the Mossad, assassinated top Iranian nuclear
scientists, to halt the nation’s program. Also, in June of that year, Israel launched its own cyberattack on Iran’s Natanz uranium plant, destroying over 1000 centrifuges at the facility. Israel
continued its efforts to halt the nuclear program in 2011, when the Mossad caused an explosion
at Iran’s Isfahan facility.
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Attempts at Solution
Following twenty months of negotiations, Iran has agreed a long-term nuclear deal (the JCPOA
or Joint Comprehensive Plan of action) with the P5+1 group of world powers - the US, UK,
France, China and Russia plus Germany - to limit its sensitive nuclear activities in return for the
lifting of crippling sanctions. This nuclear deal, approved on July 14th, includes terms about
each of the following: enrichment, transparency, reprocessing, sanctions, and phasing.
Iran will decrease the number of centrifuges it possesses from 19,000 to 6,000, as well
monumentally reducing the size of their uranium stockpile from 10,000 kilograms to 300
kilograms. The IAEA will also have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, supply
chains, and uranium mines. Iran has agreed to redesign and rebuild a heavy water research
reactor in Arak, based on a design that is agreed to by the P5+1, which will not produce weapons
grade plutonium. Iran will receive sanctions relief, if it verifiably abides by its commitments.
Even after the period of the most stringent limitations on Iran's nuclear program, Iran will remain
a party to the NPT, which prohibits Iran's development or acquisition of nuclear weapons and
requires IAEA safeguards on its nuclear program.
This deal was met with mixed reactions. Iran was in favor due to the economic benefits.
American officials, such as President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry, believe
the nuclear agreement reached is the ideal solution to prevent nuclear weapons in Iran. However,
the Republican-controlled Congress has yet to approve the deal awaiting a quorum in September
to vote on it. Politicians in the United States have projected views on either side of the issue.
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Clinton Era DPRK nuclear treaty
In the 1990’s, the United States and other nations have been trying to negotiate an end to
DPRK’s nuclear weapon development and ballistics export. In response to the proliferation
challenges caused by North Korea, America has pursued a variety of policies, including military
cooperation in the region, sanctions, and export controls. The United States also engaged in two
diplomatic agreements in which DPRK abandoned some of its weapons for aid. First, there was
the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which requires non-nuclear weapon states to forswear the
development and acquisition of nuclear weapons. However, in 1994, North Korea withdrew and
instead signed the Agreed Framework, in which Pyongyang committed to freezing its illicit
plutonium weapons program in exchange for aid. After withdrawal from the NPT, North Korea
once again began operating its nuclear facilities. So, in August of 2003, the Six-Party Talks
were arranged between China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States.
Luckily, in 2005, North Korea pledged to abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear
programs and return to the NPT. However, after disagreements in 2009 over a condemned North
Korea rocket launch, the nation refused to return to the talks, taking up nuclearization once
again.
Bloc Positions
North America
North American nations are primarily focused on limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities. North
American nations are all advocates of nuclear energy. Despite being advocates for this alternate
energy source, North American nations are proponents for many restrictions on nuclear programs
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and near transparency of nuclear programs and facilities. North American nations are pro-Israel,
so protection of Israel from a nuclear threat is will play a key role.
Western Europe
Western Europe shares many opinions with that of North American nations. Western European
nations seek to limit nuclear capabilities in the Middle East with frequent nuclear facility checks
and a transparent nuclear program. Western European nations are proponents of nuclear energy,
yet these nations worry about a nuclear state within such a close proximity.
Eurasia
Eurasian nations are extremely against any nuclear capability. Eurasian nations will try to
prevent the development of a nuclear program. Nuclear energy is not common in Eurasia.
Eurasian nations worry about protection of Border States due to proximity to Middle Eastern
hostilities. Israel is not the largest concern for Eurasian nations.
South America
With ideals similar to that of North America, South American nations are also supporters of
nuclear energy. South American nations want to limit Iranian nuclear capabilities. In order to
ensure this, South American nations support check ups on nuclear facilities.
Asia
Asian nations are supporters of nuclear energy. Nations, such as China, have benefitted
financially from the assistance of Middle Eastern nuclear programs. India and other nations wish
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to see an extension of the P5. They see P5 prevention of proliferation as an overuse of power but
do not want a Middle Eastern nuclear state.
Middle East
Middle Eastern nations are looking to create nuclear weapons arsenals; however, for the time
being, a nuclear energy program will suffice. A major reason for the creation of a nuclear
weapons program is protection, yet possession of nuclear weapons possesses as a threat to Israel.
Many restrictions and frequent checkups are not seen to be necessary. Middle Eastern nations
see P5 intervention as overreach.
Africa
African nations primarily to not possess enough money to build a nuclear weapons program of
any kind. There exists a nuclear weapon free zone in Africa. African nations will be against other
nations gaining nuclear capabilities.
Discussion Questions
Should nations be able to develop nuclear programs without restrictions?
What restrictions should exist, if any, during the development of a nuclear program?
How will surrounding nations be affected if the Middle East gains a nuclear state?
Are protection, financial gain, and alternate energy adequate reasons for the development of a
nuclear program?
Should the P5 be extended?
Sources:
http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NWFZ.shtml
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http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPT.shtml
http://www.state.gov/t/avc/c42328.htm
http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron
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