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Generations
Bobby Duffy
Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London
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Why Generations?
An example – welfare and
politics
Some issues/conclusions
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1. Why this analysis?
Limited work on generational differences in
attitudes/values in the UK? Complex
presentation, split into small cohorts, difficult to see
patterns…
Contrast US –
Pew analysis
much more
intuitive (wish had
spotted before
started…)
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2. Our generational balance is changing fundamentally – four
roughly equal-sized and quite different generations...
Proportion of UK adult (18+) population from each generational grouping
100%
% Pre war generation
90%
Born pre-1945
80%
70%
60%
% Baby boomers
50%
1945-1965
40%
30%
% Generation X
20%
1966-1979
10%
1980-2000
% Generation Y
0%
83
84
85
86
87
89
90
91
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Eurostat
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3. ...a better future no longer seems so certain...
To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worse
life than your parents’ generation, or will it have been about the same?
Much worse
Don’t know
4%
Slightly worse
Much better
Generations
14%
32%
18%
20%
About the same
61%
29%
Better
%
Worse
%
Generation Y
42
29
Generation X
60
19
Baby Boomers
70
14
Pre-War
79
8
Slightly
better
Base: 985 British adults aged 15+, 5-25 April 2013
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Source: Ipsos MOR/Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust
4. More high quality data series over long periods
Looked across range of cross-sectional surveys (BSAS, Ipsos
MORI, ESS) over time and analysed by “simulated/synthetic
cohorts” of people: when born, not age groups
3 potential types of change
• Period effect: attitudes of population as whole change in a similar
fashion over the same period of time
• Lifecycle effect: peoples’ attitudes change as they age i.e.
attitudes can be shifted by certain stages in people’s lives or life
events
• Cohort effect: a cohort has different views and these stay different
over time
Not possible to entirely unpick – but can get idea
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An
example:
welfare and
politics
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Overall opinions have moved significantly against further
redistribution...
“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it
leads to higher taxes”
70%
% Agree total
60%
50%
55%
39%
40%
30%
22%
28%
20%
% Disagree total
10%
0%
1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
All data points represent > 200 responses
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Source: British Social Attitudes
But it’s how this changes within generations that’s key cohort and period effects are clear...
“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it
leads to higher taxes…”
70%
60%
% Agree
42+
50%
66+
40%
30%
20%
1. Decline in support across board
2. But generations are different – and stay different
3. Younger age groups are less open to further redistribution
10%
0%
87
89
90
91
Pre war (born before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
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93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Baby Boomers (born 1945-65)
00
01
02
03
04
05
Generation X (born 1966-1979)
06
07
08
09
10
11
Generation Y (born 1980-)
Source: British Social Attitudes
Changing generational pattern on views of unemployment
benefits…
“Benefits for unemployed people are too low and cause hardship”
% “Agree”
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
83
84
85
86
87
88
Pre war (before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
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89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
Baby boomers (1945-65)
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Generation x (1966-1979)
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Generation y (1980-2000)
Source: British Social Attitudes
Overall measure of pride is starkest illustration of different
perspectives...
“How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare state
is one of Britain's proudest achievements.”
80%
% Agree
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
00
01
02
Pre war (born before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
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03
04
05
Baby Boomers (born 1945-65)
06
07
08
Generation X (born 1966-1979)
09
10
11
Generation Y (born 1980-)
Source: British Social Attitudes
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Massive shift in generational voting patterns...
“How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”
% Conservative
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
Pre war (before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Baby boomers (1945-65)
2005
2006
2007
2008
Generation x (1966-1979)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Generation y (1980-2000)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
...and for Labour
“How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”
% Labour
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
Pre war (before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
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2000
2001
2002
2003
Baby boomers (1945-65)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Generation x (1966-1979)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Generation y (1980-2000)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
Not quite Thatcher’s Children…
“How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”
Generation Y
General elections
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Conservative
All data points represent > 200 responses
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2003
2004
2005
2006
Labour
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Liberal Democrat
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
Who still believes in party politics anyway?
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Support for political parties is declining...
Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?
70%
60%
% Yes
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
83
84
85
86
All data points represent > 200 responses
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87
89
90
91
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: British Social Attitudes
...held up by flat generational pattern
Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?
% Yes
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Pre war (before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
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Baby boomers (1945-65)
Generation x (1966-1979)
Generation y (1980-2000)
Source: British Social Attitudes
Is this a British
disease?
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UK pattern very similar in ESS…
“Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties?”
UK
% Yes
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2002
2003
Pre war (before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
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2004
2005
2006
Baby boomers (1945-65)
2007
2008
2009
Generation x (1966-1979)
2010
2011
2012
Generation y (1980-2000)
Source: European Social Survey
Germany closest to UK among major countries
“Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties?”
Germany
% Yes
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2002
2003
Pre war (before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
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2004
2005
2006
Baby boomers (1945-65)
2007
2008
2009
Generation x (1966-1979)
2010
2011
2012
Generation y (1980-2000)
Source: European Social Survey
Sweden very different…
“Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties?”
Sweden
% Yes
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2002
2003
Pre war (before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
© Ipsos MORI
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2004
2005
2006
Baby boomers (1945-65)
2007
2008
2009
Generation x (1966-1979)
2010
2011
2012
Generation y (1980-2000)
Source: European Social Survey
Irish brought together by rejection of all parties…
“Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties?”
Ireland
% Yes
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2002
2003
Pre war (before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
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2004
2005
Baby boomers (1945-65)
2006
2007
2008
Generation x (1966-1979)
2009
2010
Generation y (1980-2000)
Source: European Social Survey
Time of austerity concs…
Increasing power in our data
(thanks to NatCen, DWP and
others for sharing)
Looking back tells us a lot: if can
identify type of change, much
better understanding of likely
future changes
Counter the focus on new in
surveys – media interest difficult
Simple presentation: learnt more
about opinion than many models
Start of a picture: test in much
more targeted way
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@BobbyIpsosMORI
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Thank you
[email protected] | 020 7347 3267
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