+86 755 23976755
[email protected]
28 April 2011
Disappointed 1Q11 Results，“Neutral”
1Q11业绩令人失望, “中性”
Angang delivered disappointed 1Q11 results under China’s Accounting rules. Revenue reached
RMB 22,595mn, up 4.25% yoy. Net profit reached RMB 71mn, down 93.8% yoy. 1Q11 EPS reached RMB
0.010, down 93.7% yoy. Gross margin only reached 7.3%, down 6.3ppt yoy. SG&A was RMB 1,120mn,
accounting for 5.0% of its total revenue, down 0.1ppt yoy. Finance cost reached RMB 413mn, accounting
for 1.8% of its total revenue, up 0.5ppt.
z
We consider Angang’s disappointed 1Q11 results are mainly due to weak cold rolled steel demand
and strong iron ore price. We expect iron ore price growth would be faster than cold rolled steel price
growth, and Angang’s gross margin would be under pressure again. Due to lower than expected
automobile sales growth, cold rolled steel demand might decline in FY11. Currently, we expect cold rolled
steel supply growth would be faster than demand growth, leading to weak cold rolled steel price.
Moreover, iron ore price might surge in 2011. Domestic iron ore import volume increased fast in 1Q11 and
NDRC announced that crude steel production in 2011 might exceed expectations to 700mn tons. Higher
than expected iron ore import volume and domestic steel production volume are the solid base for iron ore
price surge. Currently, iron ore spot price has reached USD 188/t, up 10.6% MoM.
z
We consider the long run negative factors haunting domestic steel makers still exist and it would
not subdue until iron ore import volume could begin to reduce constantly. Due to strong iron ore
price and weak cold rolled steel price expectations, we consider Angang FY11 growth would be gloomy.
We maintain our FY11-13 EPS estimates at RMB 0.297, RMB 0.361, and RMB 0.421. Maintain TP at HKD
12.0, representing 1.3x 2011E PE. Reiterate “Neutral”.
z
公司公布中国会计准则下 1Q11 业绩，令人失望。公司收入达到 22,595 百万元（人民币，下同），同比上升
4.25%。净利润仅为人民币 71 百万元，同比下降 93.8%。1Q11EPS 达到人民币 0.010 元，同比下降 93.7%。
1Q11 的毛利率仅为 7.3%，较去年同期下降 6.3 个百分点。销售和管理费用达到人民币 1,120 百万元，占总
收入比重的 5.0%，同比下降 0.1 个百分点。财务成本达到 413 百万元，占总收入比重的 1.8%，同比上升
0.5 个百分点。
z
我们认为鞍钢 1Q11 业绩令人失望的主要原因是冷轧钢需求疲软和铁矿石价格强势。我们预期矿石价格上涨
速度将快于冷轧钢, 鞍钢的毛利率将在 FY11 受到较大的压力。由于汽车销售放缓，冷轧需求在未来有可能
在 FY11 下降。目前我们预期冷轧供给的增长将超过需求的增长，冷轧价格可能持续疲软。同时，矿石价格
可能出现较快上涨。目前 1Q11 矿石进口量同比上升较快，同时发改委预期 2011 年全年粗钢产量将达到 7
亿吨。我们认为矿石进口量和粗钢产量超预期将成为 2H11 可能出现铁矿石大幅上涨的基石。目前铁矿石价
格已经达到 188 美元/吨，月环比上升 10.6%。
z
我们认为长期压制钢铁盈利的负面因素并没有解除，拐点将只可能出现在进口铁矿石开始出现持续的下降。
鉴于铁矿石价格强势和冷轧钢价疲弱的预期，我们认为鞍钢在 FY11 年的增长前景暗淡。我们维持鞍钢股份
的 11 年至 13 年的每股盈利预测至 0.297 元，0.361 元，和 0.421 元。维持目标价至 12.0 港元，相当于 1.3
倍的 2011 年预测市净率。重申“中性”。
Flash note
z
GTJAResearch 国泰君安研究
Ray Zhao 赵 睿
(00347 HK)
鞍钢股份 Angang (00347 HK)
Flash Note: Angang (00347 HK)
快讯：鞍钢股份
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 1 of 2
Company Rating Definition
28 April 2011
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating
Definition
Buy
Relative Performance >15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Relative Performance is 5% to 15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Accumulate
Neutral
Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.
Reduce
Relative Performance is -5% to -15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sell
Relative Performance <-15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sector Rating Definition
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Neutral
Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.
Underperform
Relative Performance <-5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
(02233 HK)
Definition
Relative Performance >5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.
DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
The Analysts and their associates do not serve as director in the listed corporation mentioned in this Research Report.
The Analysts and their associates have no financial interests in the listed corporation mentioned in this Research Report.
Except for Shandong Chenming (01812), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold more than 1% of the market capitalization
of listed corporation mentioned in this Research Report.
Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships within the preceding 12 months for the listed
corporation mentioned in this Research Report.
DISCLAIMER
This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities
(Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in
research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,
underwriter or invest proprietarily).
错误！链接无效。西部水泥
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating
Outperform
Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales
persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or
be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan.
Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does
not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking
estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and
mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks,
and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision.
This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located
in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would
subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
See the last page for disclaimer
Flash Note
© 2011 Guotai Junan Securities International. All Rights Reserved.
27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queens’ Road Central, Hong Kong.
Tel.: (852) 2509-9118
Fax: (852) 2509-7793
Website: www.gtja.com.hk
Page 2 of 2