Thünen à la carte FACE with crops: data for climate change impact models Hans-Joachim Weigel, Remy Manderscheid April 2016 2 FACE WITH CROPS: DATA FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT MODELS Thünen à la carte 4a · 2016 FACE with crops: data for climate change impact models Hans-Joachim Weigel, Remy Manderscheid The rapid rise of the atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] is the most prominent example of climate change. Beside its role as a “greenhouse gas” CO2 is of fundamental importance for photosynthesis of all plants and elevated [CO2] is known to stimulate photosynthesis of most plant species. Will such an effect enhance growth and yield of our crop plants in the course of the overall climate change? We are running unique field experiments to help to answer this question. Global atmospheric [CO2] is rapidly increasing and has already approached 400 parts per million (ppm). Projected future [CO2] are expected to reach 470 to 600 ppm by 2050 and 900 ppm by the end of 2100. With respect to climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, plant growth and agroecosystem models are commonly used to assess the implications of future changes in temperature and precipitation along with increasing [CO2]. Most often the results of these models strongly depend on whether or not and to what extent the “CO2-fertilization” is included into these models (Figure 1; Hertel 2015). Thus, it is of particular importance to know the magnitude of such a CO2 effect under real field conditions. Modeled yields HOW DO PLANTS RESPOND TO ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATIONS? In C3 crops like wheat, rice, sugar beet and soybean the enzyme RuBisCO is converting CO2 into an organic molecule with three carbon atoms. However, at current ambient CO2 levels RuBisCO remains non-saturated with respect to CO2. Consequently, elevated [CO2] enhances carbon assimilation of these crops. For example, an enhancement of the photosynthetic rate of up to 35-50 % may be possible at a [CO2] of 550 to 750 ppm. Due to a different CO2 fixation mechanism photosynthesis of C4 crops like maize, sorghum and sugarcane is not enhanced by elevated [CO2]. However, under elevated [CO2] leaf stomatal conductance of both plant types is reduced resulting in a decrease of leaf transpiration. This again may lead to a more Plant available soil water without CO2 effect 2011 with CO2 effect yield change (%) 10 5 0 2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080 -5 -10 climate models: ECHAM4 HadCM2 CGCM1 CSIRPO-Mk2b GFDL-R15 Figure 1: Modeled (DSSAT-CERES) yields of winter wheat in Austria for different climate change scenarios with and without “CO2-fertilization“ (Alexandrov et al. 2002; modified) plant available soil water 120 100 wet 80 60 40 20 0 385 ppm 600 ppm wet dry maize sorghum 26.06. 10.07. dry 24.07. 07.08. 21.08. 04.09. 18.09. 02.10. Figure 2: Plant available soil water content (mm; 0-60 cm) of maize (cv. Simao) and sorghum (cv. Bulldozer) canopies during FACE-experiments in Braunschweig under adequate (wet) and reduced (dry) water supply 3 FACE WITH CROPS: DATA FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT MODELS Thünen à la carte 4a · 2016 Photo 1: Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) rings in a winter wheat field during July (Braunschweig). Across the area surrounded by the vertical vent pipes (light green) the CO2 concentration is elevated to 600 ppm. efficient plant water use. Moreover, in C3 plants elevated [CO2] leads to changes in the plants tissue composition with consequences for e.g., plant quality. For any climate change impact assessments it is important to know how these primary effects of elevated [CO2] translate into effects on crop yields and yield quality. We are addressing these questions in FACE experiments. FACE: OPTIMAL TOOL TO STUDY THE “CO2 FERTILIZATION EFFECT“ The FACE technology (Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) allows to simulate future atmospheric CO2 levels under open field conditions – without any enclosure of plant canopies by chambers or greenhouses. In Braunschweig (North Germany) we have applied a circular FACE system in an arable crop field for now more than 10 years (Photo 1). The system is used to raise the atmospheric [CO2] to 550 or 600 ppm during the growing season (daylight only). In order to assess the interaction between elevated [CO2] and drought stress we developed a rain-out shelter system that can be combined to the FACE apparatus (Manderscheid et al. 2014; Photo 2). FACE experiments are currently considered as the optimal tool to simulate future atmospheric CO2 scenarios for plants close to reality, e.g. as canopy microclimate and overall in situ growth conditions are not affected. Only a limited number of FACE experiments has been carried out as they are technically complex and expensive to run due to high CO2 costs. ELEVATED CO2 REDUCES PLANT WATER CONSUMPTION AND ENHANCES YIELDS In FACE experiments in an arable crop rotation with winter barley, sugar beet and winter wheat (C3 plants) and with different geno- types of maize and sorghum (C4 plants) we were able to shown that due to a reduced leaf transpiration total canopy transpiration also decreased. At the same time soil water content in all these experiments increased under elevated [CO2] (Figure 2). One may speculate that such an effect may help plants to better cope with dry conditions which are expected to increase along with climate change. A great number of CO2 enrichment experiments during the last 30 years – mostly carried out under artificial, non-natural growth conditions – revealed positive growth and yield effects of elevated [CO2] on various crop species. Growth enhancements of up to 30 % were observed at CO2 concentrations ranging between 200 to 300 ppm above the respective ambient air levels (350-380 ppm). However, these results vary considerably across the individual experiments. In comparison, growth stimulating effects observed in FACE experiments carried out in USA, Japan, China and Australia were mostly lower and amounted – on average – to ca. 15 % under a [CO2] of 550 ppm (Long et al. 2006). Similar growth and yield enhancements ranging between 9 to 15 % (Table 1; Weigel and Manderscheid 2012) were observed in our FACE experiments in Braunschweig, which are the only FACE experiments carried out in Europe in arable crop rotations. While it has mostly been observed that the relative growth stimulation by elevated [CO2] is lower at low compared to adequate nitrogen supply, this could hardly been observed in our experiments (Table 1). Also, for the first time we were able to show in a field experiment under FACE conditions that for maize a “CO2 fertilization effect” could only be observed if the plants suffer from water stress conditions which clearly decrease above-ground biomass production (Table 2; Manderscheid et al. 2014). 4 FACE WITH CROPS: DATA FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT MODELS Thünen à la carte 4a · 2016 Photo 2: Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) system in Braunschweig combined to “rain-out shelters“ in order to simultaneously simulate drought stress conditions (coloured area = CO2 enrichment). In general, overall assessments of the extent of the “CO2 fertilization effect“ under real field conditions in the future remain difficult. There still is information with only a limited number of crop species and very little is known about the possible interactions of elevated [CO2] with other growth variables (temperature, water and nutrient supply). Also, possible differences in the CO2 response between different genotypes of a species remain mostly unknown. Controversy also remains whether data from field or also from laboratory experiments provide suitable information that can be used in models for climate change impact assessments. For example, growth chamber experiments are assumed to overestimate the positive growth effects of elevated [CO2] in comparison to FACE experiments, and thus too strongly qualify negative effects of climate change. This is equally true for assessments of possible effects of increasing frequencies of climate extremes and climate variability. ELEVATED CO2 CHANGES PLANT QUALITY Almost all studies under elevated [CO2] revealed changes of the concentrations of macro- and micro-elements (e.g. nitrogen sulfur, iron, zinc) and of other organic compounds (e.g. soluble sugars, vitamins, secondary metabolites etc.) in the plant tissue. For example, in grains of various cereal species elevated [CO2] induced a reduction of the total nitrogen concentration which corresponds to a loss of protein. In our FACE experiments with winter wheat we not only observed a loss of crude protein content of 10-15 % but also changes in the relative amounts of individual protein fractions (glutenines vs. gliadines) which contribute to the total protein content, an effect which may have consequences for the baking quality of flour (Wieser et al. 2008). Changes of important plant constituents (e.g. protein, mineral and trace element content) induced by elevated [CO2] are of importance as this might exacerbate the problem of ”hidden hunger” (Myers et al. 2014) which is particularly relevant for developing countries. FACE-DATA FOR MODELS Data from the FACE experiments in Braunschweig are used by modeling groups from Germany and abroad, in order to validate, calibrate and improve different models for the assessment of future crop yields under climate change. For example, this was done for an analysis of climate change impacts on German wheat production (Kersebaum and Nendel 2014). Data of our maize experiments were provided to the maize modeling team of AgMIP (the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Projects) in order to test if current maize crop models catch the impact of future [CO2] on maize yield and water use. Crop modeling for climate change impact assessments came up with the prediction some years ago that under future climate change wheat yield might be more impaired by heat stress rather than by drought conditions. However, these models were mainly based on findings from growth chamber and greenhouse studies. Therefore, most recent FACE experiments in Braunschweig were initiated, where CO2 enrichment is combined to simultaneous short-term heat treatments of wheat canopies (Photo 3), in order to elucidate possible interactions of heat stress and elevated [CO2] effects under real field conditions and to provide new data for the related modeling approach. IMPLICATIONS FOR PLANT BREEDING FACE and open-top chamber experiments in Braunschweig have shown that (i) some of our current crop species are unable to fully exploit the positive growth effects of elevated [CO2] and (ii) that 5 FACE WITH CROPS: DATA FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT MODELS Thünen à la carte 4a · 2016 Photo 3: Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) combined to heat stress treatments of winter wheat during anthesis (Braunschweig). Inside the FACE area surrounded by the black vertical vent pipes the CO2 concentration is elevated to 600 ppm. H-1 and H-2 = plots with temperature treatments applied by six infrared heaters. Con = control treatment with dummy heaters. Crop Nitrogen supply Parameter CO2-effect (%) Barley 100 50 Grain yield + 12.0 + 13.1 Ryegrass 100 50 Above-ground biomass + 8.8 + 9.8 Sugar beet 100 50 Sugar yield + 10.3 + 14.2 Wheat 100 50 Grain yield + 15.6 + 11.7 Table 1: Effects of FACE (550 ppm) and different nitrogen (N) fertilization levels on yield parameters of different crop species in a crop rotation in Braunschweig (100 = adequate fertilization; 50 = 50 % of adequate). Results are shown as percent change compared to ambient air [CO2]. 1st growing season 2nd growing season Drouht stress wet dry wet dry effect (2nd season) 385 ppm 10.4 10.0 11.3 7.3 - 39.5 % 550 ppm 10.3 10.2 11.2 10.2 - 14.5 % CO2effect -1 % 1 % -1 % 41 % Table 2: Effects of FACE on grain yield (t/ha) of maize in Braunschweig under adequate (wet) and reduced (dry) water supply and relative CO2- and drought effects. During the 1st growing season drought stress could not be induced. different genotypes of a particular species differ in their response to more CO2. This raises the question, whether and to what extent there might be possibilities for more targeted breeding strategies to “optimize” the “CO2 fertilization effect” in order to maximize the benefits from the high atmospheric CO2 supply. Further FACE experiments are required to screen large numbers of genotypes of a particular crop species (e.g. winter wheat) for their relative growth responses to elevated [CO2]. Long, S. P., E.A. Ainsworth, A.D.B. Leakey, J. Nösberger and D.R.Ort: Food for thought: Lower-than expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science 312 (2006), S. 1918-1921 REFERENCES Myers, S.S., A. Zanobetti, I. Kloog, P.Huybers, A.D. Leakey, A.J. Bloom et al.: Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition. Nature 510 (2014), S. 139-142 Alexandrov, V., Eitzinger, J., Cajic, V., and M. Oberforster: Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria. Global Change Biology 8 (2002), S. 372-389 Manderscheid, R., M. Erbs and H.J.Weigel: Interactive effects of free-air CO2 enrichment and drought stress on maize growth. European Journal of Agronomy 52 (2014), S. 11-21 Hertel T.W.: The challenge of sustainably feeding a growing planet. Food Security 7 (2015), S. 185-198 Weigel, H.J. and R. Manderscheid: Crop growth responses to free air CO2 enrichment and nitrogen fertilization: Rotating barley, ryegrass, sugar beet and wheat. European Journal of Agronomy 43 (2012), S. 97-107 Kersebaum, K. and C. Nendel: Site-specific impacts of climate change on wheat production across regions of Germany using different CO2-response functions. European Journal of Agronomy 52 (2014), S. 22-32 Wieser, H., R. Manderscheid, M. Erbs and H.J. Weigel: Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations on the quantitative protein composition of wheat grain. Journal of Agricultural Food Chemistry 56 (2008), S.6531-6535 Zitationsvorschlag – Suggested citation: Weigel H-J, Manderscheid R (2016) FACE with crops: data for climate change impact models. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 6 p, Thünen à la carte 4a, DOI:10.3220/CA1455111790000 Thünen à la carte 4a April 2016 Herausgeber/Redaktionsanschrift Thünen-Institut Bundesallee 50 38116 Braunschweig Germany [email protected] www.thuenen.de ISSN 2363-8052 DOI:10.3220/CA1455111790000 Fotos: Thünen-Institut
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