JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000, pp. 649–669 LEVIATHAN VS. LILLIPUTIAN: A DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS OF GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY Patricia A. Nold Hughes and Mary E. Edwards Economics Department, St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, MN 56301, U.S.A. E-mail: [email protected] and [email protected] ABSTRACT. In this paper we present a new approach to measuring government efficiency, based on the theory that communities that allocate resources efficiently in the local public sector maximize property values. We use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to identify the counties in Minnesota that are characterized by property-value maximization and hence an efficient public sector. The results indicate that the dominant source of public sector inefficiency is an inappropriate scale of operations. It appears that some county jurisdictions are too large to service the population efficiently. The size and concentration of government power are also responsible in part for observed inefficiencies. 1. INTRODUCTION The advantages of government decentralization arise as each jurisdiction must compete for residents through its use of fiscal policy. Smaller governmental units are more responsive to consumer demand, tend to be more accountable, and are less apt to develop into a “Leviathan.” In areas with a diverse population, disaggregation of government activity may result in smaller, more homogeneous districts as a result of Tiebout sorting. However, excessive decentralization or downscaling of decision making bears an additional cost in the provision of goods and services. The benefits of economies of scale may be lost in small-scale provision, and administrative costs may increase due to higher overhead. Given the conflicting nature of economies of scale and Leviathan tendencies, the goal of this paper is to determine whether local government is efficient, and if not, what causes the inefficiency. In Section 2 we provide a review of the literature pertaining to the behavior of local government. In Section 3 we introduce the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). DEA allows us to identify inefficient counties and determine whether the inefficiency is due to scale economies or government waste independent of the scale of operations. With efficiency scores provided by DEA, in Section 4 we determine the major predictors of an efficient public sector using Tobit regression analysis. These results are compared to those obtained using a Received March 1998; revised November 1999, December 1999, and March 2000; accepted May 2000. © Blackwell Publishers 2000. Blackwell Publishers, 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA and 108 Cowley Road, Oxford, OX4 1JF, UK. 649 650 JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000 more traditional stochastic production-frontier approach: corrected ordinary least squares. A brief summary and conclusion follow in Section 5. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW In the world envisioned by Charles Tiebout (1956) consumers voting with their feet resolve the problem of efficiency in the public sector. In a perfect Tiebout world individuals sort themselves into communities based on the provision of public goods. Each individual migrates to the community offering the optimal fiscal package, that is, the mix of publicly provided goods, services, and taxes that is compatible with his or her own tastes and preferences. The result is a set of homogeneous communities with efficient public sectors. The diversity of the population determines the size of each community and the level of decentralization required to achieve efficient fiscal policy. Sonstelie and Portney (1978, 1980) use Tiebout’s hypothesis to focus on how communities might act in their role as suppliers of local public goods and services. They demonstrate that local communities acting as profit maximizers allocate resources efficiently in the local public sector. In the short run, profit maximization is equivalent to property value maximization. In the long run it is equivalent to land-value maximization. Brueckner (1979, 1982) addresses the question of whether heterogeneous communities are providing public goods efficiently. The analysis is based on the effect of changes in the level of government expenditures on property values, incorporating the budget constraint of the local government into the equation. The hypothesized influence of local government expenditures on property values is demonstrated in Figure 1. According to Brueckner, if local governments are currently under-supplying the local public good, increases in their expenditures should increase property values. However, at some point, further increases in government expenditures FIGURE 1: Total Property Values as a Function of Local Government Expenditures. © Blackwell Publishers 2000. HUGHES & EDWARDS: GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY 651 cause property values to decline, indicating an over-supply of local public goods. Brueckner tests his hypothesis in two regions: 53 northeastern New Jersey communities and 54 Massachusetts communities. He concludes that the New Jersey communities may be over-providing public goods, but he has reservations about the quality of the data used in the analysis (1979, pp. 244–245). Assuming that the 1979 study is plausible, the New Jersey communities are providing amount c of public goods in Figure 1. Communities providing c amount of local public goods are over-providing goods, and they can increase property values by decreasing the size of government. Brueckner’s 1982 study concludes that Massachusetts communities show no systematic tendency to over- or under-provide public goods. Massachusetts communities are providing amount b of public goods. Communities providing amount b are acting as profit maximizers. By maximizing property values they are also maximizing community profits and providing an efficient amount of public goods. To capture interjurisdictional spillover effects, Deller (1990) applies a Box-Cox procedure to county-level Illinois data. Although educational spending is efficient, he finds that public goods, except for education, are under-provided in Illinois. This corresponds to point a in Figure 1. Communities that provide quantity a of local public goods can increase property values by providing more local public goods. In addition, Deller loosely implies that although larger governments may experience economies of scale, they are not as responsive to the needs of the constituents as are smaller governments (p. 404). In contrast to the traditional view that government acts in the best interest of its citizens, Brennan and Buchanan (1980) present an alternative view of government behavior. Acting as a Leviathan, the government maximizes its own utility by maximizing its fiscal surplus to provide perquisites of office. Fiscal surplus is defined as the difference between tax revenue and expenditure. The ability of the government to exploit its citizens is diminished as the degree of competition for residents increases between jurisdictions. The Leviathan model implies that the size of the public sector will vary inversely with the degree of decentralization. The search for Leviathan begins with a search for a satisfactory measure of decentralization. Using the percentage of the state and local public sector controlled by the state as a measure of centralized decision-making, Oates (1985) does not find evidence supporting the Leviathan hypothesis. Questioning Oates’s measure of decentralization, Nelson (1987) estimates a revised version of the model. He uses the number of local governments within a state normalized by population as his decentralization measure. With this measure of decentralization, Nelson’s findings are consistent with the hypothesis that competition between general-purpose local governments restrains government spending at the state level. Eberts and Gronberg (1988) provide further statistical support for the decentralization hypothesis at the metropolitan and county levels. As a more © Blackwell Publishers 2000. 652 JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000 complete test of the intrusiveness of government, Joulfaian and Marlow (1991) include federal with state and local spending to measure the size of government. Their results also support the Leviathan hypothesis. These studies support the decentralization hypothesis at the local level as it applies to general-purpose governments. Although support of the Leviathan hypothesis is provided by numerous studies, the empirical evidence is not consistently supportive of such a view. Oates (1989) provides a comparison of the differences between model specification, variable definitions, and levels of aggregation, which may explain some of the inconsistencies. Not only are the empirical results inconsistent, implicitly the searches for the effect of decentralization on the level of spending have postulated that increases in government spending are inefficient. This is not necessarily true. Whereas centralized decision-making may create a Leviathan, fragmentation may not allow small jurisdictions, “Lilliputians,” to provide beneficial services that exhibit economies of scale. Larger jurisdictions may provide a greater range of services that are valued by residents and in doing so are mislabeled Leviathans. We determine whether inefficient political jurisdictions tend toward overspending with greater government concentration. With DEA we identify specifically which political jurisdictions are inefficient. DEA provides a score that measures the degree of inefficiency. Using these efficiency scores we differentiate between scale economies and government waste as the source of inefficiency. In addition to DEA, in a second stage we use Tobit regression analysis to ascertain the causes of the inefficiency. To validate the results obtained using DEA, the model is reestimated using a more traditional stochastic production-frontier approach, corrected ordinary least squares (COLS). The comparison of the two approaches is necessary because of the absence of statistical measures of significance and goodness of fit in DEA. Although DEA and COLS are different approaches to estimating production frontiers, a consensus of the two results will validate the findings produced under the different sets of assumptions inherent in the two methods. 3. METHODS Data Envelopment Analysis Based on the frontier analysis suggested by Farrell (1957), data envelopment analysis (DEA) was developed by Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (1978) to estimate the level of technical efficiency in production. The applications of DEA in government, nonprofit, and for-profit institutions are vast. Seiford (1990) has compiled a list of over 500 works that use DEA as an evaluative tool. Applications specific to urban and regional issues include studies on industrial production by township and village enterprises in China (Tong, 1996, 1997), the efficiency of electricity retail distributors in Sweden (Hjalmarsson and Veiderpass, 1992), © Blackwell Publishers 2000. HUGHES & EDWARDS: GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY 653 analyses of the efficiency of local governments in Belgium (De Borger and Kerstens, 1996) and New South Wales (Carrington et al., 1997), and studies that analyze urban and highway transit programs (Nolan, 1996; Viton, 1998; Rouse, Putterill, and Ryan, 1997). Yue (1992), Haag and Raab (1993), and Sherman (1992) provide some of the more lucid explanations of how DEA works. Seiford and Thrall succinctly introduce DEA as a methodology directed to frontiers rather than central tendencies. Instead of trying to fit a regression plane through the center of the data, one ‘floats’ a piecewise linear surface to rest on top of the observations. Because of this unique perspective, DEA proves particularly adept at uncovering relationships that remain hidden for other methodologies. (1990, p. 8). DEA uses linear-programming techniques to compare decision-making units (DMUs) which may produce multiple outputs using multiple inputs. Without specifying a functional form for the production technology, DEA is able to estimate a production frontier defining the maximum output for the given input level. Each production unit’s efficiency is measured relative to the efficiency of all other units. By construction, all units are on or below the frontier. A single organization is defined as technically efficient if it cannot increase the amount of one of its outputs without reducing other outputs or increasing inputs. Thus, the method described by DEA is consistent with the economic theory of optimization. In addition to being technically efficient an organization must compare input prices and productivity to demonstrate economic efficiency. For an organization to attain economic efficiency it must first demonstrate technical efficiency. The current study uses IDEAS Version 5.13 to solve the linear-programming models of DEA. Linear-programming models are solved for each of the DMUs in the analysis set. For each unit, the model searches for a linear combination of units in the sample that produces a greater level of output with fewer inputs. The linear combination represents a hypothetical composite unit that must satisfy two inequality constraints: (1) all output levels are greater than or equal to the output levels of the DMU under analysis, and (2) all input levels of the hypothetical composite unit are less than or equal to the input levels of the unit under analysis. The model is searching for a comparison that identifies output slack or excess input usage of the unit under analysis, as defined by the above inequality constraints. In solving the linear-programming problem the user must specify three characteristics of the model: the returns to scale, the evaluation system, and the orientation system. Returns to scale may be either constant returns or variable returns, following the standard economic definitions. The evaluation system refers to weights placed on the inputs and outputs in the objective function, subject to the inequality constraints. Weights may be desired in situations where the scale of the inputs or outputs varies. The orientation system, which defines the objective function, can be designated as input, output, or base. The input orientation system searches for a linear © Blackwell Publishers 2000. 654 JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000 combination of DMUs that maximizes the excess input usage of DMUi subject to the inequality constraints noted above. Under output orientation, the output slack of DMUi is instead maximized. The base or nonoriented specification maximizes the combined input excess and output slack. The most general form of the DEA linear programming model is the base or nonoriented model with variable returns to scale. The statements for DMUi of this model are Min – (ui si +vi ei ) with respect to λi (1) Objective Function subject to (2) Y λi – Y i = s i Output Slack (3) Xi – X λi = ei Excess Input n with ∑λ ij = 1, λ i ≥ 0, e i ≥ 0, s i ≥ 0 j =1 With m inputs, s outputs, and n DMUs Y ~ (s × n) matrix of outputs X ~ (m × n) matrix of inputs Yi ~ (s × 1) matrix of outputs for unit i Xi ~ (m × 1) matrix of inputs for unit i si ~ (s × 1) matrix of output slack ei ~ (m × 1) matrix of excess input λi ~ (n × 1) matrix of weights assigned to linear combination of comparison set ui, vi ~ (1 × s) and (1 × m) matrix of weights used in the evaluation process of the objective function. The base orientation of the model is apparent in the objective function, Equation (1). The sum of the excess input and output slack is maximized. The primary objective in the output-oriented model is to maximize the proportional increase in outputs produced with a given level of inputs, Equation (2). For the input-oriented model the objective is to maximize the proportional decrease in inputs necessary to produce a given level of output, Equation (3). The model to determine government efficiency used in this paper is based on an input orientation. By using an input orientation, one can determine whether a political jurisdiction can produce the same level of output with less input. In defining the model as variable returns-to-scale, the weights determining the hypothetical composite comparison λij must sum to one. Under constant returns-to-scale there is no restriction on the sum of the weights. There is no reason to assume that constant returns exist in community development so both versions of the DEA model are estimated to determine possible sources of inefficiency. When ui = 1 and vi = 1 the evaluation system is referred to as being © Blackwell Publishers 2000. HUGHES & EDWARDS: GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY 655 standard (or equal bounds). The model is searching for a hypothetical composite comparison, the linear combination of DMUs, that maximizes the combined output slack and excess input usage compared to DMUi. In the case of the units-invariant (or DMU-specific) evaluation system, the output slack vector and excess input vector are weighted in the objective function by uir = 1/Yir, r = 1, . . . , s and vit = 1/Xit , t = 1, . . . , m. The units-invariant specification accounts for variations in the scale of inputs and outputs when evaluating the distance to the production frontier. For example, we do not want to weight capital and labor equally when measuring excess input usage, if one unit of capital represents a one-million dollar machine and one unit of labor represents one hour’s worth of time. In the present study, which focuses on property-value maximization, where the scale of the inputs varies substantially, the appropriate evaluation system is units-invariant. DEA produces an efficiency score, which estimates the input requirement if the DMU operates efficiently. An efficient DMU receives a score of one (100 percent). An efficiency score of one means that the DMU cannot produce the same output level by using any less than 100 percent of the current inputs. With an input orientation, inefficient DMUs receive a score of between zero and one. For example, a score of 0.9 implies that the DMU could produce the same output using 90 percent of its current inputs. By designating the production process as constant returns rather than variable returns, one can determine the cause of inefficiency to be either from scale inefficiency or purely technical inefficiency. Scale efficiency relates to the size of operation and whether it is cost efficient. If a unit is operating in a range of increasing returns to scale, expansion of that unit’s operations will decrease average production costs. Similarly, under decreasing returns to scale a contraction in the size of operations will reduce average costs. Only if the firm is operating in a range of constant returns to scale will average costs be minimized. Pure technical efficiency relates to waste in the production process due to mismanagement of resources, regardless of the size of the operation. The efficiency score measures overall technical efficiency by imposing constant returns to scale in the DEA model. The overall technical efficiency is a nonadditive combination of pure technical and scale efficiency. When variable returns are stipulated, the efficiency score measures pure technical efficiency only. Scale efficiency is not in question because the DMUs are, by construction, compared to others of roughly equal size. Given that constant returns measures inefficiencies due to both scale and pure waste, and variable returns captures pure waste only, the measure of scale efficiency is produced by taking a ratio of the two sets of efficiency scores. The scale-efficiency score equals one if and only if technology exhibits constant returns to scale at the current level of operation for DMUi. A score less than one implies that scale inefficiencies exist; the DMU in question is either too small and experiencing increasing returns to scale, or too large and experiencing decreasing returns to scale. Unfortunately, the linear program used in this paper, IDEAS 5.13, does not allow one to determine whether © Blackwell Publishers 2000. 656 JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000 the source of the scale inefficiency is from increasing or decreasing returns to scale. In either case, the size of the operation is not cost effective, and either expansion or contraction is in order. See Miller and Noulas (1994) and Färe, Grosskopf, and Lovell (1994) for a more detailed exposition. Corrected Ordinary Least Squares As a validation of the DEA results the model is reestimated using regression analysis. Aigner, Lovell, and Schmidt (1977) introduce a method of estimating a production function that captures the frontier of production possibilities using a modification of traditional regression analysis. Rather than estimating the average production function, which allows for a symmetric measurement error in the specification, their composed-error frontier model includes an error term composed of both a two-sided measurement error and a one-sided inefficiency error. Banker, Gadh, and Gorr (1993) demonstrate a relatively easy method of estimating the production frontier using corrected ordinary least squares (COLS). Once a production frontier is estimated, Jondrow et al. (1982) provide a formula for estimating the individual inefficiencies, the ωi, for each DMU. Their method provides efficiency scores comparable to that of DEA. The general formulation of the COLS model is Yi = βXi – εj εi = υi + ωi where υ i ~ N 0, σ 2υ is the two-sided measurement error term, and ωi ≥ 0 is the e j one-sided measure of technical inefficiency. The one-sided inefficiency term is generally modeled as half-normal, exponential, or gamma. Based on the assumed distribution of the inefficiency term, maximum likelihood may be used to estimate the parameters of the production function. An alternative to the maximum likelihood method, Banker, Gahd, and Gorr (1993) use corrected ordinary least squares (COLS) as a less demanding way to estimate the production frontier. Ordinary least squares (OLS) provides unbiased and consistent estimates of all of the production parameters except the intercept term. COLS corrects for the bias in the intercept term from OLS, allowing a practical means of estimating composed error frontier models. The bias of the intercept term is given by the mean of ε µ = − 2σ 2ω π e j 12 The individual inefficiencies are given by the mode of ωi conditional on εi c hRST 2 2 M ω ε = −ε σ υ σ ε =0 © Blackwell Publishers 2000. if ε ≤ 0 if ε > 0 UV W HUGHES & EDWARDS: GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY 657 The parameters σ ω2 , σ 2υ , σ 2ε can be consistently estimated using the second and third moments of the OLS residuals m2 and m3, respectively. σ ω2 = {bπ 2g 12 b g } π π − 4 m3 b 23 g σ 2υ = m2 − π − 2 π σ 2ω σ 2ε = σ ω2 + σ 2υ The value of ε is the corrected ordinary least squares residual. The efficiency score is given by b g COLS Efficiency Score = Yi − ω i Yi Comparison of DEA and COLS The major advantage of DEA is that it is nonparametric; it does not stipulate a functional form for the production process and there is no assumption as to the distribution of the error term. In addition, it is able to handle multiple inputs and multiple outputs easily. The major disadvantage of DEA is the assumption that all deviations from the frontier are due to technical inefficiencies, with no allowance for randomness in the production process and measurement errors in the variables. In cases involving large measurement errors DEA frontier estimates are biased outward, overstating the degree of inefficiency of units within the frontier. In contrast to DEA, stochastic frontier estimation allows deviations from the frontier to include both measurement errors and inefficiency. Regression analysis has the advantage over DEA in cases involving relatively large measurement errors assuming the classical assumptions defining the model are met. In particular, regression analysis requires the stipulation of both a functional form for the production process and probability distribution for the error term. Incorrect specification of either the production function or the error distribution can result in estimation errors. 4. THE DATA AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS Overview In this section we describe the model of property-value maximization and the empirical results. Using DEA we identify which political jurisdictions are efficient or inefficient. Using the efficiency scores from both the constant and the variable returns models, we differentiate between scale economies and government waste as the source of inefficiency. Using Tobit analysis we regress the efficiency scores on the size and concentration measures of government activity to determine specific causes of the inefficiency. A similar analysis is performed using COLS in an attempt to validate the results of the DEA analysis. © Blackwell Publishers 2000. 658 JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000 We investigate county government efficiency in the State of Minnesota. Sonstelie and Portney (1978, 1980) point out that if communities act as profitmaximizing firms then resources will be efficiently allocated to the provision of local public goods. Therefore, public sector efficiency will correspond to maximization of property values with respect to local fiscal policy. Following Deller (1990), we use county-level data to capture interjurisdictional spillover effects. Although fiscal policy exerts a significant impact on property values, other significant input factors include land and water area, residential characteristics, market factors, community characteristics, and employment opportunities. Table 1 lists the variables used as inputs in the analysis. In keeping with the concept of a technical production function, all input measures theoretically exert a positive influence on total property value. Hence, we transform variables TABLE 1: Variables Used in the Frontier Estimation Output: Total Property Value ($) Mean Median Standard Deviation $891,090,000 $539,440,000 $1,220,600,000 91,365 Inputs: Discretionary Education ($000) 40,101 16,826 Discretionary Social Services ($000) 16,041 6,429 47,666 Discretionary Transportation ($000) 10,033 4,964 22,565 Discretionary Public Safety ($000) 6,505.9 1,604 22,021 Discretionary Environment ($000) 10,262 2,176 34,277 Discretionary Administration ($000) 5,283.2 1,899 14,863 Discretionary Intergovernmental transfers (Percent of revenue from federal and state sources) 0.50169 .51017 0.086917 NonDiscretionary Land Area (thousands of squared kilometers) 2370.2 1735.8 2069.5 NonDiscretionary Discretionary Water Area (thousands of squared kilometers) Total number of homes 218.10 39.080 630.85 21,246 9,675 53,053 Discretionary Median number of rooms 5.7823 5.8759 0.41121 Discretionary Discretionary Median income ($) (1 – Poverty Rate) 25,052 .877 23,278 .88048 5,758.9 0.042449 Discretionary (1 – Crime Rate) .92886 .93274 0.034436 Discretionary Employment (number of employees per county) 18,997 4,616 74,476 Discretionary 1/housing density (land area/homes) 0.28982 0.22894 0.24497 Discretionary 1/average commute time (minutes) 0.046868 0.046235 0.0095850 Discretionary Percent who live and work in the county 0.82600 0.86437 0.10488 © Blackwell Publishers 2000. HUGHES & EDWARDS: GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY 659 that negatively affect property values into positive effects using 1-poverty rate, 1-crime rate, 1/housing density, and 1/average commute time. The output measure, total property value, is defined as the market value of residential, commercial, and industrial property. Fiscal policy is represented by government expenditures, found by aggregating county, municipality, township, special district, and school district spending. Government expenditures are grouped by major categories of spending: education, social services, transportation, public safety, environment, and administration. In addition, interjurisdictional government aid is represented by the percent of revenue received from federal and state sources. County size is measured by both square kilometers of land area and, perhaps particularly pertinent in Minnesota, square kilometers of water area. Determinants of residential property value include the number and quality of homes with quality proxied by median number of rooms. Median income will influence housing value following the bid-rent concept. In addition, median income, poverty rate, crime rate, and housing density proxy community characteristics. Employment opportunities are represented by the percent of residents who live and work in the same county, average commute times, and the number of employees per county. The employment opportunities reflect the value of commercial and industrial property. Data pertaining to government composition are obtained from the Census of Governments, Compendium of Government Finances (1987). Employment data are drawn from the County Business Patterns (1987). Housing and population data are drawn from the Census of Population and Housing, 1990: Summary Tape File 1 (Minnesota) and Summary Tape File 3 (Minnesota). The journey to work data set is provided by the Regional Economic Information System, (1969–1995). The Minnesota Annual Report on Crime, Missing Children, and Bureau of Criminal Apprehension Activities (1987) gives crime rates per county. DEA Empirical Results Table 2 presents four sets of efficiency scores, three for the DEA analyses and one from the COLS analysis. The first set of scores is generated by imposing constant returns to scale (CRS). The second set of scores is generated from variable returns to scale (VRS). Both models are based on an input orientation with the inputs weighted to account for disparate units of measurement. In addition, both land and water area within a county are designated as fixed or nondiscretionary from a policy standpoint. Nondiscretionary variables are not subjected to proportional reductions in an input-oriented model. CRS scores measure overall technical efficiency. Thus, the CRS scores are composed of a nonadditive combination of pure technical and scale efficiencies. VRS scores measure pure technical efficiency only. A ratio of the overall efficiency scores to pure technical efficiency scores provides a scale efficiency measure, the third set of efficiency scores. The fourth set of efficiency scores provided in Table 2 is for the COLS method. This last set of scores will be discussed later. © Blackwell Publishers 2000. 660 JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000 TABLE 2: Efficiency Scores FIPS Code — County Name DEA-CRS DEA-VRS Scale (CRS/VRS) COLS 1 - Aitkin 3 - Anoka 5 - Becker 7 - Beltrami 9 - Benton 11 - Big Stone 13 - Blue Earth 15 - Brown 17 - Carlton 19 - Carver 21 - Cass 23 - Chippewa 25 - Chisago 27 - Clay 29 - Clearwater 31 - Cook 33 - Cottonwood 35 - Crow Wing 37 - Dakota 39 - Dodge 41 - Douglas 43 - Fairbault 45 - Fillmore 47 - Freeborn 49 - Goodhue 51 - Grant 53 - Hennepin 55 - Houston 57 - Hubbard 59 - Isanti 61 - Itasca 63 - Jackson 65 - Kanabec 67 - Kandiyohi 69 - Kittson 71 - Koochiching 73 - Lac Qui Parle 75 - Lake 77 - Lake of the Woods 79 - Le Sueur 81 - Lincoln 83 - Lyon 85 - McLeon 87 - Mahnomen 1.000000 1.000000 0.446740 0.447430 1.000000 0.538060 0.599510 0.659560 0.311200 0.831730 1.000000 0.628880 0.617390 0.487560 0.528240 1.000000 0.771270 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.480710 0.769100 0.691480 0.473060 0.827240 0.827600 0.179950 0.515160 0.795570 0.589540 0.564510 1.000000 0.707400 0.486740 1.000000 0.290400 0.775200 0.439070 0.554210 0.693470 1.000000 0.629140 0.551580 0.622550 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.995520 1.000000 N/A 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.979270 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.973340 1.000000 1.000000 0.980940 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.970750 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.446740 0.447430 1.000000 0.538060 0.599510 0.659560 0.311200 0.831730 1.000000 0.631710 0.617390 N/A 0.528240 1.000000 0.771270 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.480710 0.769100 0.691480 0.483074 0.827240 0.827600 0.179950 0.515160 0.795570 0.589540 0.564510 1.000000 0.707400 0.500072 1.000000 0.290400 0.790262 0.439070 0.554210 0.693470 1.000000 0.648097 0.551580 0.622550 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.984710 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.936157 0.962583 0.992473 0.988125 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.995036 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.992878 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.985478 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.947258 © Blackwell Publishers 2000. HUGHES & EDWARDS: GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY 661 FIPS Code — County Name DEA-CRS DEA-VRS Scale (CRS/VRS) COLS 89 - Marshall 91 - Martin 93 - Meeker 95 - Mille Lacs 97 - Morrison 99 - Mower 101 - Murray 103 - Nicollet 105 - Nobles 107 - Norman 109 - Olmsted 111 - Otter Tail 113 - Pennington 115 - Pine 117 - Pipestone 119 - Polk 121 - Pope 123 - Ramsey 125 - Red Lake 127 - Redwood 129 - Renville 131 - Rice 133 - Rock 135 - Roseau 137 - St. Louis 139 - Scott 141 - Sherburne 143 - Sibley 145 - Stearns 147 - Steele 149 - Stevens 151 - Swift 153 - Todd 155 - Traverse 157 - Wabasha 159 - Wadena 161 - Waseca 163 - Washington 165 - Watonwan 167 - Wilkin 169 - Winona 171 - Wright 173 - Yellow Medicine Averages 1.000000 1.000000 0.419430 0.420590 0.464850 1.000000 0.903610 0.850000 0.621750 1.000000 1.000000 0.578840 0.407710 0.771300 0.565640 0.543720 0.746160 1.000000 0.744640 1.000000 1.000000 0.528260 1.000000 0.677950 0.360360 0.916030 1.000000 0.764030 0.694600 0.849860 0.657180 0.614760 0.436410 1.000000 0.521580 0.340980 0.685780 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.508580 0.829400 0.737580 0.718308 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 N/A 0.980820 1.000000 1.000000 0.985480 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.990970 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 N/A 0.998299 1.000000 1.000000 0.419430 0.420590 0.464850 1.000000 0.903610 N/A 0.633908 1.000000 1.000000 0.587369 0.407710 0.771300 0.565640 0.543720 0.746160 1.000000 0.744640 1.000000 1.000000 0.528260 1.000000 0.684128 0.360360 0.916030 1.000000 0.764030 0.694600 0.849860 0.657180 0.614760 0.436410 1.000000 0.521580 0.340980 0.685780 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.508580 0.829400 N/A 0.720295 0.999049 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.989776 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.936632 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.967150 1.000000 1.000000 0.997807 1.000000 1.000000 0.996266 Note: Efficiency scores for three counties are not calculated due to scaling problems in the DEA programming. © Blackwell Publishers 2000. 662 JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000 By imposing CRS in the programming, we identify 25 efficient counties, leaving 62 inefficient ones. The inefficient counties are either operating at an inappropriate level or are mismanaged. The inappropriate level could be due to not taking advantage of scale economies or not offering an efficient quantity of public goods. Mismanagement refers to pure waste, that is, an inappropriate use of taxpayer dollars. Under VRS, 76 counties are identified as efficient, 8 are inefficient, and 3 scores are not reported due to scaling problems with the data in the DEA program. Under VRS, counties are compared to those of like size, hence, the eight counties identified as inefficient exhibit some type of mismanagement or waste given their scale of operation. Comparing the overall level of inefficiency (CRS scores) to that component due to pure technical inefficiency (VRS scores), the dominant source of inefficiency is clearly due to scale economies. The average efficiency score under CRS is equal to 0.718. Including all sources of inefficiency, on average Minnesota counties could operate at 71.8 percent of their current input levels and maintain the same total property value. However, the average efficiency score under VRS is equal to 0.998. Given the scale of operation, a majority of counties are efficient in managing their resources. Indeed, the magnitude of waste due to inappropriate spending is on average less than 1 percent. Although DEA identifies inefficient counties in the sample it does not identify the cause of the inefficiency. The inefficient counties are each given a reference set which allows for specific recommendations to improve efficiency. By studying and incorporating the fiscal operations of efficient counties in the reference set, inefficient counties may realize substantial cost savings or increased property values. As an example, data for Morrison County, data for one county in the reference set for Morrison County, and data for adjacent counties are provided in Table 3. Under constant returns to scale Morrison County receives an efficiency rating of 0.46485 (see Table 2). For Morrison County, aggregating 0.0025 of the inputs and outputs of Dakota County and 0.42896 of the inputs and outputs of Sherburne County creates the hypothetical composite county used in the comparison. For the sake of exposition, consider a roughly similar hypothetical county based on a scaled-down version of Sherburne County only. The scale (0.4424569), the ratio of property values of Morrison County to Sherburne County, is chosen to present a comparison of equal market value. Morrison County is judged inefficient because we can take half of Sherburne County, retain the same market value as Morrison County, but use less input to achieve this value. By definition, this imposes constant returns to scale in the definition of efficiency. The data from Table 3 suggest that one major difference between Morrison and Sherburne County is population density. Sherburne County is more congested but it has more and larger homes in less than half the land (and water) area of Morrison County. The level of enterprise and employment is greater, as © Blackwell Publishers 2000. HUGHES & EDWARDS: GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY 663 TABLE 3: DEA Inputs and Output for Morrison and Adjacent Counties Morrison Actual Data Outputs Total Property Value Inputs Revenue Transfer (Percent) Median Number Rooms Total Number of Homes Median Income Employment 1/(Average Commute Time) 1/(Housing Density) Work in Community (Percentage) Education Social Services Transportation Public Safety Environment Administration 1 – Poverty Rate 1 – Crime Rate Land Area Water Area Hypothetical Composite Data = 0.4425* Sherburne Crow Wing Sherburne Benton Actual Data Actual Data Actual Data 702250 702249.9 1587160 611579 1506720 0.57 5.55 12434 22102 5607 0.0478 0.2342 0.20353 2.681289 6620.925 15744.83 2735.269 0.01353918 0.03344974 0.46 6.06 14964 35585 6182 0.0306 0.0756 0.55 5.53 11521 26619 6800 0.044 0.0918 0.6 5.42 29916 22250 11757 0.0475 0.0863 0.87 25591 6538 7238 1691 1836 2116 0.84 0.92 2912.58 74.65 0.256625 12660.9 2395.019 2152.553 1148.618 848.6323 1170.299 0.40706 0.40706 500.2904 16.54346 0.58 28615 5413 4865 2596 1918 2645 0.92 0.92 1130.71 37.39 0.51 15349 4530 2770 1401 676 1967 0.9 0.96 1057.48 12.24 0.88 39758 17928 9292 4713 2715 5041 0.85 0.9 2581.44 414.22 is the overall level of public goods provided, except for transportation and social services. Economic development seems to be the key difference. The level of economic development activity may be instigated and compounded by Sherburne County’s closer proximity to the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul. Although Sherburne County is chosen to most clearly identify the inefficiency of Morrison County, some adjacent counties deemed as efficient by DEA may shed some light on the problems encountered in Morrison County. Benton County is sandwiched between Sherburne and Morrison Counties. Benton County is about one-third the size of Morrison with a just slightly smaller total market value. Again the key difference lies in the level of economic development. Benton County has nearly the same number of homes and slightly more jobs in one-third of the land area. Benton County also has a significantly smaller public sector, particularly in transportation and education. The percent of Benton residents working outside of the county is 49 percent, higher even than that of Sherburne County. Although closer proximity to the Twin Cities may again be responsible for the higher property values, the average commute time of 22.7 minutes, with 82 percent traveling 30 minutes or less to work, does not indicate © Blackwell Publishers 2000. 664 JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000 a strong tie to the Twin Cities’ job market. It takes over one hour to commute from central Benton County to the closest sector of the Twin Cities. Adjacent and north of Morrison County, Crow Wing County is also judged efficient by DEA standards. Crow Wing County has slightly less land area but a significantly greater water area than Morrison. The level of economic development in Crow Wing County is significantly greater than in Morrison County. Crow Wing County supports nearly twice the employment and number of homes as Morrison. It is interesting to note that although public sector support increases in most areas in relation to the increased scale of the private sector, spending on social services and public safety nearly triples in Crow Wing County. By location and commuting patterns, proximity to the Twin Cities cannot be the determining factor affecting development. The greater water area and resort development may be a key factor in the increased development and property value of Crow Wing County. Morrison County is bordered on the north and south by efficient, propertymaximizing counties. Superficially we may claim that Sherburne County’s success lies in its proximity to the Twin Cities, and Crow Wing’s success lies in its recreational water resource. However, the cause of Benton County’s efficiency is not obvious. In all three cases the level of economic development is higher than in Morrison County, driving up property values. A larger agricultural sector in Morrison County is a detriment to property-value maximization. Although Sherburne is highlighted in Morrison’s reference set, collaboration with Benton County may provide a more useful insight into the area of property-value maximization. Although the strategy for realizing the input reductions specified by DEA is unique to each county, we use Tobit regression analysis to determine if there are some universal strategies or county characteristics that influence the efficiency rating. Table 4 presents the regression estimates of the Tobit model that are used to pinpoint the factors that influence the size of the efficiency score for both the DEA and COLS models. The Tobit estimation procedure is used because the efficiency scores have a maximum value of one. In a conventional two-stage DEA model the technical efficiency scores obtained from the firststage DEA model are regressed on some location-specific fixed inputs in the second stage. While the DEA inputs are expected to increase property values, the question remains as to why some counties are able to increase property values above that of other counties with similar inputs. To shed light on this question the scale efficiency scores are regressed on factors that reflect the size of the jurisdiction to capture scale economies, and the number of government units and level of government spending to capture Leviathan tendencies. The VRS efficiency scores do not show enough variation to warrant consideration. The results in Table 4 indicate that an increase in county size, as measured by land area, has a negative and significant impact on the DEA efficiency score. Given that the dominant source of inefficiency is attributable to scale economies these results indicate that diseconomies of scale are present in the expansion of © Blackwell Publishers 2000. HUGHES & EDWARDS: GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY 665 county boundaries. The presence of Leviathan tendencies implies that the size of the public sector will vary inversely with the degree of decentralization. This implication is supported by the Tobit results. Efficiency significantly increases as the number of government units per capita increases. An increase in the size of the public sector paid for by local residents has a negative, although insignificant, impact on efficiency. Overall the results indicate that counties encompass too large of an area, benefit from decentralization and, to a limited extent, spend too much per capita. Even though the level of pure waste in government appears minimal, the above tendencies are consistent with the Leviathan view of government. COLS Empirical Results The estimates of the stochastic production function are presented in Table 5. The function is log linear with squared and interactive terms included for government expenditures. The nonlinear functional form, specifically the inclusion of squared terms, allows the return to property values from increasing government expenditures to decline and eventually become negative if excessive spending occurs. The interaction terms allow for the public-good nature of government spending, with larger communities receiving greater benefit from a given level of spending due to the greater number of consumers. Theoretically, the coefficients are expected to be positive for the linear terms, negative for the squared terms, and positive for the interactive terms. However, the empirical results do not strictly adhere to such a pattern due to the significant degree of multicollinearity in the data. Although the estimators remain unbiased, the reliance that can be placed on the value of the estimates will be small, and interpretation of the coefficients quite difficult. Although multicollinearity affects the precision of the coefficient estimators, it has little effect on the overall fit of the equation. The R2 of 0.9574 shows a reasonably good TABLE 4: Regression Coefficient Estimates of Tobit Model: Dependent Variable = Efficiency Score: Maximum Value of One (Asymptotic normal statistics in parentheses) Independent Variables: Constant DEA Scale Efficiency Scores 0.79709** (5.58) Land –0.3255E-04** (–2.15) Total Government Expenditures Per Capita Financed Locally –0.7018E-01 ($000) (–0.54) Number of Governmental Units Per Capita 56.202** (2.29) Number of Observations 84 Squared Correlation Between Observed and Expected 0.12497 **five percent significance level © Blackwell Publishers 2000. COLS Efficiency Scores 1.0257** (131.0) –0.2412E-05** (–2.90) –0.1914E-01** (–2.75) 0.22248 (0.18) 87 0.25712 666 JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000 TABLE 5: Corrected Ordinary Least Squares Stochastic Production Function: Dependent Variable = Property Value Estimated Coefficient Independent Variables: Intergovernmental Transfers Land Water Homes Median Rooms Median Income Employment Inverse Commute Time 1-Poverty Rate 1-Crime Rate Inverse Housing Density % Work in Community Education Social Services Transportation Public Safety Environment Administration Education Squared Social Services Squared Transportation Squared Public Safety Squared Environment Squared Administration Squared Education × Homes Social Services × Homes Transportation × Homes Public Safety × Homes Environment × Homes Administration × Homes Constant Number of Observations 87 .9574 R2 –1.2018** 2888.9 0.0225 –2890 3.8985** 0.4264 –0.14572 0.0142 –0.37257 –1.1405 –2888.6 –0.26303 –4.0743** 2.2323** –2.4818** 0.44918 0.35154 6.3679** 0.00683 0.0333 0.4332* –0.25578 0.0964 –0.65808 0.44273 0.31411** –0.51337 0.37851 –0.2104 0.45459 5.1175 t-ratio –3.401 0.6537 1.004 –0.654 5.115 0.799 –1.443 0.0571 –0.2321 –1.027 –0.6537 –0.5393 –2.807 3.776 –2.416 0.1858 0.4184 2.878 0.0437 1.45 1.916 –0.9289 1.662 –1.585 1.373 –3.173 –1.249 0.5719 –1.352 0.5364 0.7282 **5 percent significance level *10 percent significance level Note: All variables are logged, with the exception of those reported in percentages. fit of the average production function to the data. Because multicollinearity has little effect on the overall fit of the equation, it will also have little effect on the use of the equation for prediction. The main focus of the model is on the fit of the production function rather than isolating the independent effects on market © Blackwell Publishers 2000. HUGHES & EDWARDS: GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY 667 value. The presence of multicollinearity does not affect the consistency of the resulting efficiency scores. The efficiency scores derived from the COLS procedure along with the three DEA efficiency scores are presented in Table 2. The COLS scores identify 14 of the 87 counties as inefficient. The average efficiency score over the 87 counties is 0.996, roughly equal to the average of the DEA scores allowing variable returns to scale. However, the correlation between the COLS efficiency scores and any of the DEA efficiency scores is virtually zero. Although the efficiency scores from the two procedures show a surprisingly low correlation in indicating and ranking county efficiency, the determinants of the rankings using Tobit regression analysis show much greater consistency in the two methods. Table 4 shows the results of regressing the efficiency scores generated from COLS on the size of the jurisdiction and characteristics of government in that jurisdiction. The signs of the parameters are the same in both methods. In both models the size of the county has a negative and significant impact on the efficiency score, again indicating diseconomies of scale. Per capita expenditures financed locally exert a negative and significant impact on the COLS efficiency scores, indicating excessive spending. In the DEA model the effect of increasing expenditures was negative but not significant. Whereas the number of government units per capita has a positive impact on both sets of efficiency scores, the impact is not significant in the COLS model. The consistency in the Tobit regression analysis between the DEA and COLS models provides further support for the Leviathan view of government behavior. 5. CONCLUSION Our paper extends the research on the efficiency of government performance using the method of data envelopment analysis (DEA). With DEA we identify the counties in the State of Minnesota that are maximizing property values, and hence the counties that have an efficient public sector. DEA produces efficiency scores that measure the degree of inefficiency. Using the efficiency scores we differentiate between scale inefficiency and pure technical inefficiency, and we conclude that the primary cause of inefficiency is due to the size of the jurisdiction relative to scale economies. The aspect of production inefficiency or government waste is a minor problem. Using Tobit regression analysis we examine the cause of scale inefficiency. Scale inefficiency may come from a jurisdiction that is too small and therefore experiencing increasing returns to scale, or one that is too large and experiencing decreasing returns to scale. The results indicate that jurisdictions with larger land area tend to be less efficient, that is, they tend to experience diseconomies of scale. Inefficiencies relating to the size and degree of concentration in government indicate that greater decentralization and decreased spending by the public sector increase efficiency. The evidence indicates the presence of Leviathan tendencies, with inefficient counties typified by increased land area, increased government concentration, and greater levels of spending. The smaller © Blackwell Publishers 2000. 668 JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 40, NO. 4, 2000 Lilliputian governmental units are more responsive to consumer demand. These results are supported by an alternative method of estimation, corrected ordinary least squares which also indicates the negative effect of land area, government expenditures, and government concentration on public sector efficiency. Although greater decentralization tends to increase government efficiency, an area of further research is to determine which level of government is more efficient. As a measure of decentralization we use the number of government units in the county. We do not address the question of the level of governmental unit (municipality, township, school district, or special district) that is responsible for the increased efficiency. Inconsistencies in the empirical evidence supporting the Leviathan hypothesis are attributable to differences in model specification, variable definitions, and levels of aggregation. 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