3 April 2017
French Presidential Election
Prepared for CEVIPOF, Jean Jaurès Foundation and Le Monde
CONTACTS
Brice Teinturier
[email protected]
Jean-François Doridot
[email protected]
Federico Vacas
[email protected]
1
©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Technical note
SAMPLE
14 300 persons registered on the
electoral rolls, constituting a
representative national sample of the
French population aged 18 years and
over.
DATES OF FIELDWORK
FROM 31 MARCH TO 2 APRIL 2017.
METHODOLOGY
ONLINE INTERVIEWS
QUOTA METHOD: GENDER, AGE,
INDIVIDUAL'S OCCUPATION,
REGION, URBAN/RURAL.
en partenariat avec
As with any quantitative survey, this study presents results subject to the margins of error inherent in statistics. This report has
been drawn up in compliance with the international standard ISO 20252 "Market research, social studies and opinion".
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©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
FRENCH ELECTION
Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all
and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interst regarding the
coming presidential election?
Interest for the presidential election
(Note from 0 to 10)
No interest at all
(0 à 1)
Little interest
(2 à 3)
Average interest
(4 à 6)
Sufficient interest
(7 à 8)
Lot of interest
(9 à 10)
3%
3%
15%
26%
53%
Average
score
8,0
3
Not interested
Quiet interested
Interested
6%
15%
79%
©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
FRENCH ELECTION
Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all
and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interst regarding the
coming presidential election?
Interest for the presidential election
(Note from 0 to 10)
81
80
81
79
80
14
15
14
15
14
15
6
6
6
75
74
71
71
74
20
20
21
21
19
5
6
8
8
7
5
5
5
Sept. 2016
Nov.
2016
Dec. 2016
Jan. 2017
Feb. 2017
Jan.
2016
March 2016 May 2016
4
©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
79
1-5 March 14-15 March 31 March 2017
2017
2 April 2017
Interested
Quite
interested
Not
interested
FRENCH ELECTION
Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all
and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interst regarding the
coming presidential election?
Interest for the presidential election
(Note from 0 to 10)
Average score of interest
7,7
7,6
7,4
7,4
7,6
Janv.
2016
March
2016
May
2016
Sept.
2016
Nov.
2016
5
©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
8,0
8,1
8,1
Dec.
2016
Jan. 2017
Feb 2017
8,0
8,1
8,0
1-5 March 14-15 March 31 March 2017
2017
2 April 2017
Question: The first round of the next presidential election will take place on
April 23, 2017. Could you give a score of 0 to 10 on your intention to vote
in the first round of this presidential election?
FRENCH ELECTION
Participation index
SYMPATHIZERS
73%
56%
63%
70% 69%
79%
72% 67% 72% 71% 76%
62%
50%
PARTICIPATION
66%
ST EXG
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©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
ST
GAUCHE
ST
DROITE
Note: 65% of French people intend to vote in the first round of the
Presidential Election, 70% of PS sympathizers, 72% of LR sympathizers,
76% of FN sympathizers, etc.
Aucun
parti
FRENCH ELECTION
Question: The first round of the next presidential election will take place on
April 23, 2017. Could you give a score of 0 to 10 on your intention to vote
in the first round of this presidential election?
Participation index- gender, age,
interviewee’s occupation
GENDER
68%
AGE
65%
PARTICIPATION
66%
7
58%
66%
75%
LESS THAN 35
35 TO 64
65 +
INTERVIEWEE’S OCCUPATION
66%
64%
63%
61%
74%
Cadre supérieur
Senior
Executive
Intermediate
profession
Employee
Worker
Retired
©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
FRENCH ELECTION
Question : If the first round of the presidential election was held next
Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If
the choice is between the following candidates…?
Voting intention 1st Round
Base : Certain to vote, stated intention
Evolution
31 March-2 Avril
vs 14-15 March
(=)
+0,5
+3,5
-2,5
-1
*
(=)
+0,5
25
-2
(=)
(=)
<0,5
0,5
25
17,5
15
10
1
Nathalie
Arthaud
8
1
Philippe
Poutou
4
1
Jean-Luc
Mélenchon
©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Benoît
Hamon
Emmanuel
Macron
Jean
Lassalle
*During last poll, Jean Lassalle’s
candidature was not tested,
François
Fillon
Nicolas
DupontAignan
Marine
Le Pen
Jacques
Cheminade
People certain to vote who have not expressed an
intention to vote
François
Asselineau
FRECNH ELECTION
Question : Is your voting choice definite or could you still change your mind ?
Likelihood to change mind
Base : Certain to go vote
According to voting intention
« DEFINITE CHOICE » EVOLUTION%
64%
53
50
59
64
Definite
Nathalie Arthaud
Philippe Poutou
50
1-5 mars
2017
14-15
31 MarchMarch 2017 2 APril 2017
36%
Can still change
9
©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
48
61
72
75
37
25
63
Marine Le Pen
François Asselineau
39
28
François Fillon
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
40
52
Emmanuel Macron
Jean Lassalle
62
60
Benoît Hamon
7-12 Février
2017
50
38
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Definite
Not decided
82
62
18
38
FRENCH ELECTION
Voting intention 2nd Round
Hypothesis E. Macron versus M. Le Pen
Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next
Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If
the choice is between the following candidates?
Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention
REPORTED VOICE
Evolution
31 March-2 Avril
vs 14-15 March
Voting intention
1st round
(=)
(=)
61%
39%
Emmanuel
Macron
Marine
Le Pen

©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Total
Would vote for
J-L. Mélenchon
48%
9%
43%
100%
Would vote for
Benoît Hamon
71%
3%
26%
100%
Would vote for
François Fillon
37%
32%
31%
100%
Would vote for
N. Dupont-Aignan
31%
42%
27%
100%
20 % of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention
10
Not
decided
FRENCH ELECTION
Question : Is your voting choice definite or could you still change your
mind ?
Likelihood to change mind
Hypothesis E. Macron VS M. Le Pen
Base : Certain to go vote
Definite
Evolution
31 March-2 April
vs 14-15 March
Can still change
« Definite »
All
Voting intention
Emmanuel Macron
Voting intention
Marine Le Pen
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©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
80
20
+3
85
15
+4
84
16
+5