THE AMERICAN PRESIDENCY
-A CAPSTONE CLASSPOLITICAL SCIENCE (PSC) 461
Instructor: Brian Krueger
Phone: 4-4058
Email: [email protected]
Office: Washburn Hall 203
Hours: Tu 1-2, Th 3:15-5:00
Class: WASH 208
Hours: Tu, Th 11:00-12:15
Course:
This course is an advanced seminar on the American presidency. We begin by reviewing the
origins and powers of the office and assessing the evolving relationship between presidents and
the public, particularly as they relate to nominations, elections and direct media. Next, through
the use of structured student led debates, we consider several key normative controversies
regarding the nature of the presidency. Most importantly, students in this class will design and
execute a semester long original research project using one of the recent presidential elections as
a test case. A portion of our in-class-time will be allocated toward learning how to design and
conduct systematic research and extending what you learned in prior Political Science classes,
particularly PSC 310. Presentation of your work is a requirement for this class.
Outcomes:
Integrate and Apply (Full)
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Students will apply the quantitative statistical skills learned in PSC 310 to assess their
own original questions about the previous Presidential election using a professional
probability sample survey.
Students will discover and evaluate journalistic election/campaign storylines from the
media and then derive appropriate hypotheses to be tested via applied statistics. Students
will integrate the specific campaign framing from the punditry into testable novel
propositions and then use the methods taught in Political Science to judge their accuracy
in an original research project.
Students will create a professional poster, using graphics, charts and text to express the
most significant findings from their original research projects that integrate media
storylines with Political Science methodology and statistical testing. Not only must
students learn how to create posters worthy of professional meetings, but they must also
present these posters orally to their peers.
Civic (Partial)
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Students will demonstrates an understanding of how individuals elect the American
President and an understanding of the policy goals and preferences of different voting
groups.
Students will learn about the many changes made to the presidential nomination
procedures and then document one’s own future plan for how they could act to make
further reforms to the presidential nomination system.
Course Requirements
(1) Exam 1
(2) Exam 2
(3) Civic Paper
(4) Final Research Poster & Paper
(5) Class Attendance
Proportion of Grade
20%
20%
10%
30%
20%
Grade Points earned A 93-100; A- 90-92; B+ 87-89; B 83-86; B- 80-82; C+ 77-79; C 73-76; C- 7072; D 65-69; F <65
The following attendance grades apply:
A
0-1 missed classes
A2-3 missed classes
B
4-5 missed classes
C
6 missed classes
C7 missed classes
D
8 missed classes
F
9 or more missed classes
See the University Manual for the policy on plagiarism: http://www.uri.edu/facsen/8.208.27.html
If you miss an exam, you receive a 10-point grade deduction on the makeup unless you have a
legitimate reason for the absence such as serious illness or family emergency.
If you hand in a paper late, you receive 5 points off for every day late unless you have a
legitimate reason for the absence such as serious illness or family emergency.
On Cell Phones, PDA’s, Etc. Students should turn off, not simply silence, their cell phones prior to
the start of class. Answering a cell phone, checking messages, or text messaging is strictly
prohibited. Under special circumstances students may be allowed to keep their cell phones on (such
as when a partner may deliver a baby). Please discuss the special circumstance with me prior to
class.
If you experience any sort of physical, mental or other challenge that will prevent you from
fulfilling the requirements of this course in a timely fashion, please notify me so that adjustments
can be made. I accommodate all documented disabilities; to learn more visit URI’s disability
services website at www.uri.edu/disability/dss/
You may wish to seek academic help at URI’s:
WRITING CENTER Roosevelt Hall, www.uri.edu/writingcenter
THE ACADEMIC ENHANCEMENT CENTER Roosevelt Hall, www.uri.edu/aec
Course Readings:
James P. Pfiffner. The Modern Presidency, Bedford St. Martin.
Richard A. Brody. Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support, Stanford University Press.
Benjamin Ginsberg and Martin Shefter. Politics by Other Means, W. W. Norton & Company
Course Outline:
Date:
Topic, Readings, and Assignments:
9-07
Course Overview
9-12
Origins of the Presidency
Pfiffner, chapter 1
9-14
White House Staff and Cabinet
Pfiffner, chapters 3,4,5
9-19
Congress
Pfiffner, chapter 6
9-21
National Security
Pfiffner, chapter 7
9-26
Data Lab 1: Introduction to working with ANES data
You have 2 Choices:
For those wanting to Use SPSS and the ANES Website
http://www.electionstudies.org/studypages/anes_timeseries_2012/anes_timeseries_2012.htm
To download the data from the ANES website, you will need to sign up. The SPSS program uses the .SAV
file name. I have also placed these data as well as the full codebook in the Sakai resources.
A good place to begin is the List of Release Variables, though you will need more information than the
simple list. This is a quick handy first look guide of the dataset.
The Questionnaires are the original materials used when asking respondents the questions. They are good
for seeing the original material but are not as useful when using the data in SPSS.
The Codebook, is the key to unlocking the dataset in SPSS
You will need to open the .sav file on a computer that has SPSS. The public URI computer labs have
SPSS. It will not ‘just work’ on your computer.
Depending on your research question and the types of statistical techniques you wish to use, you may need
to RECODE the variables.
For those wanting to use Cal Berkeley’s SDA Website and statistical tool for the 2012 ANES
http://sda.berkeley.edu/sdaweb/analysis/?dataset=nes2012
Click on the codebook to see the variables/questions in the 2012 ANES
http://sda.berkeley.edu/D3/NES2012/Doc/hcbk.htm
The SDA website will allow you to use the same statistical techniques taught to you PSC 310 using SPSS.
The big advantage to using SDA is that you can use it anywhere you have an internet connection.
Depending on your research question and the types of statistical techniques you wish to use, you may need
to RECODE the variables.
9-28
Data Lab 2: Refining your project hypotheses and testing using ANES data
10-03 National Security Application
Readings in Sakai Folder Labeled: G.W. Bush and Barack Obama N.S.
10-05 National Security Application
Readings in Sakai Folder Labeled: G.W. Bush and Barack Obama N.S.
10-10 Abuse and Reputation
Pfiffner, chapter 8
10-12 Exam 1
10-17 Presidential Popularity
Brody, introduction and chapter 1
10-19 Rally Around the Flag and the Economy
Brody, chapters 3 & 5
10-24 In Class Debate
10-26 Exam 2
10-31 Electoral Decay
Ginsberg, chapter Introduction
11-02 Electoral Decay
Ginsberg, chapter 1,2
11-07 Nominations (From King Caucus, to 1968, to Primaries to Super-Delegates)
Readings in Sakai folder Labeled: Nominations
Future Civic Engagement Assignment:
Political Parties have used several different mechanisms to nominate presidential candidates. The system is not
set in stone but is influenced in part by the demands of the citizenry. Reflect upon past and current nominating
procedures. Then write a 5 page paper. First, detail flaws in the current system. Next describe a more
preferred structure that overcomes these weaknesses. Finally, drawing lessons from past reform, suggest how
YOU could act with other citizens to bring about this change in the future.
11-09 Democrats and the Domestic State
Ginsberg, chapter 3
11-14 The Republican Offensive
Ginsberg, chapter 4
11-16 Institutional Combat
Ginsberg, chapter 5
11-21, 23
Thanksgiving No Class
11-28 Bush v. Gore
Ginsberg, chapter 6
11-30 Mobilization, Combat, and Power
Ginsberg, chapter 7
12-05 Poster and Paper Workshop
12-07 In-Class Poster Presentations
RESEARCH PAPER ASSIGNMENT (Due in My Mailbox Dec. 14th)
In this class you will devote much of your out-of-class-time to designing and writing an original research
paper. All papers this semester will answer a research question related to the class theme: “Testing
Conventional Myths of the 2012 Presidential Election.” Pundits, bloggers, journalists, politicians,
roomates, and Aunts and Uncles alike profess to know why the 2012 presidential election transpired as it
did. It is our job as political scientists to test these often incongruent journalistic storylines about the 2012
election to separate conventional wisdom from conventional myth.
You must first uncover these conventional storylines by talking with citizens, reading pundits, bloggers,
journalists, politicians, and pop-scholarship about the 2012 election. Next, you must choose a conventional
storyline to test with high quality probability sample survey data of the American population. I will provide
students with these data (ie the American National Election Study). Moreover, throughout the semester, we
will review many of the approaches, applied statistics, and the SPSS program available to you in most of
the public URI computer labs. Many of the methods used in this class will parallel those first learned in
PSC310.
The reflection piece about how you might transform the presidential nominating system deals with
normative concerns about what the American Presidency should be like and how you and other citizens
could shape it. I care what you think. In this research paper you will test a conventional storyline about the
2012 Presidential election. I don’t care what you think; I care about what you can demonstrate with
evidence.
The paper will be structured as follows:
1) Describe in detail the conventional storyline you will consider in your paper. Provide citations and
ample evidence that the storyline is important in some way. In other words, explain the storyline and
defend your decision for choosing it as the centerpiece of your paper.
2) Next, describe your general approach to testing the validity of this storyline. In other words, what
hypotheses do you intend to test? Another way to think about this is: what survey evidence would you
likely see if the storyline was accurate or inaccurate.
3) Next, describe the data and procedures used for testing these hypotheses.
4) Show your results in text and tables. Explain your results in detail. Did the data confirm or disconfirm
your hypotheses?
5) What are the implications of your study for the American Presidency, our understanding of the 2012
presidential election, or even the 2016 presidential election?
6) Finally, what are some of the drawbacks or limitations of your analysis or evidence? What could be
done to correct these problems in future research? What future research questions do your results invoke?
Students must also present these projects to class in one of our in class poster sessions. Students must use
the poster template provided in Sakai.