ECPR_ed2.doc The Profile of Recent Environmental Protest in Germany 1 by Dieter Rucht Several observers have stated that the German environmental movement is among the strongest and most active in the world. Moreover, the movement is perceived as being fairly radical when compared to its counterparts in most other countries. According to more recent accounts, however, this picture has changed. Some analysts claim that the movement is in decline (Opp 1996: 371), or has virtually ceased to exist. Others maintain that the movement is still there, but has lost its zeal due to a gradual process of institutionalisation (Brand 1993; Wörndl and Fréchet 1994; Eder 1996), in particular, to the co-optation of the movement’s leadership. To what extent such perceptions hold can only be judged on the basis of thorough empirical analyses. Cross-national comparison will be a matter of a later investigation.2 At this point, the focus is only on the changing patterns of the German environmental movement over recent years. For this purpose the paper relies heavily, though not exclusively, on protest event data produced within the framework of a cross-national study on the „Transformation of Environmental Activism“ (TEA-project; see Rootes 1998). The German data are only partially available at present, and this is the preliminary use of these. Thus, in several respects, this paper is just a first descriptive account which will be the subject of future expansions and revisions. In the first section, I will provide some background information on the development of the environmental movement in Germany. The second section of the 1 Paper presented for the Workshop on “Environmental Protest in Comparative Perspective” at the 27th Joint Sessions of ECPR Workshops in Mannheim, 26-31 March, 1999. I am grateful to Richard Steer for his editorial assistance. 2 For available cross-national analyses of environmental movements, see Dalton 1994; van der Heijden, Koopmans and Guigni 1992; Kriesi and Giugni 1996; Rucht 1989 and 1994; Wörndl and Fréchet 1994. 1 paper will, firstly, describe the data base and then, in its main part, present empirical findings on the main features of recent environmental protest in Germany. At this early stage of the analysis, the paper is not geared toward one particular aspect or question; rather it seeks to provide an overview on protest as an important, but not the only, dimension of a movement’s activity. Finally, some of the findings and their implications will be discussed in the light of more general questions about environmental movements. 1. The Development of the Environmental Movement in Germany: A Brief Overview As in many other countries, modern environmentalism in West Germany did not gain momentum before the early 1970s. It would be wrong to assume that environmental questions have been put on the public and political agenda mainly, or even only, by the emerging new environmental groups. In these years, environmental concerns were also expressed and promoted by governments on both the international and national levels. In West Germany, governmental environmental action programmes were launched in 1970 and 1971, followed by a wave of environmental legislation and the first attempts to institutionalise environmental policy (Weidner 1995). On the state level, the first environmental department was created in Bavaria in 1971; three years later, the national environmental protection agency was established. (However, a Federal State Departement on Environmental Protection did not come into existence until 1986.) Three concurrent developments marked the early phase of the emerging environmental movement. First, local and independent citizen action groups mushroomed, and in part also united in regional, statewide and national organisations such as the Bundesverband Bürgerinitativen Umweltschutz (Federal Alliance of Citizen Initiatives for Environmental Protection; founded in 1972). These early groups were focussing mainly on specific issues such as air pollution, individual transport, and nuclear energy. Second, pre-existing organisations for nature conservation became revitalised and, to some extent, politicised. An outstanding example is the Bavarian-based Bund Naturschutz (Alliance for Nature Conservation; founded in 1913) which renewed its programme and leadership in the early 1970s and was 2 instrumental in founding the Bund für Umwelt- und Naturschutz Deutschland (BUND) in 1975. Third, loose networks of individuals and groups adhering to a more general concept of political ecology emerged. They saw an urgent need for a radical change of industrial societies, promoting ideas of decentralisation, „soft“ technology, an ascetic and ecologically friendly lifestyle, and sometimes even industrial devolution (Amery 1976). Alongside these new tendencies, some of the traditional organisations for nature conservation, bird protection, and the protection of animals continued to exist without, at that time, modifying their apolitical ideology and assimilative strategy. By and large, these different groups represented three ideological strands. The oldfashioned conservationism aiming to protect particular areas and species by nonconflictual means; the modern environmentalism that had a broader and more dramatic perception of environmental degradation and did not shy away from political intervention; finally, the political ecologists who wanted to save the „planet Earth“ by radical means to reach a truly ecological society (Rucht 1991).3 Many of the leftist groups, both Old and New Left, were initially sceptical toward what they perceived as a naive petty-bourgeois movement. Only in the second half of the 1970s, with the centrality of the conflict over nuclear energy, did parts of leftist groups, ranging from Maoists to Trotzkyists to Anarchists, join the movement and play some role in the „alternative“ and „green“ lists and the early phase of the Green Party that was founded in 1980. During the 1970s, the environmental movement acted mainly as a challenger to the established institutions and the dominant policy of economic growth supported by all major parties. These were not directly opposed to environmentalism, but felt that the movement wanted too much too quickly, thereby threatening economic performance and job security. They framed the issue as a matter of “jobs or environmental protection”. During the 1980s, the picture of an outsider movement besieging the political establishment faded away. On the one hand, the establishment gradually became more receptive to environmental concerns and more sceptical about the conventional idea of progress measured in productivity and GNP. It also became clear that significant parts of the population sympathised with green ideas, as could be seen both by the large numbers of adherents to the movement (Fuchs and Rucht 1994) and 3 Green voters (Frankland 1995). On the other hand, parts of the more radical segments of the environmental movement became more pragmatic, focussing on alternative technologies, the technicalities of environmental policy-making, and the parliamentary arena where the Greens got a foothold at all levels, ranging from the local councils to the European Parliament. Over time, the groups at the ideological fringes – both left and right - of the environmental movement did not disappear, but decreased in numbers and significance, and the environmentalist mainstream became the dominant force. The conflicts between the red-green and the brown-green strands, radicals and moderates, promoters of an extra-parliamentary and a parliamentary strategy, and between the “fundamentalists” and “realists” within the Green party have lost their significance. Based on this internal clearing process and the mutual rapprochement between the movement and industry and public administrations, the instances of communication, negotiation and bargaining multiplied (Brand 1999). At the same time, however, direct conflicts in particular areas such as nuclear power, animal rights, and genetic engineering continued. Overall, it seems that the movement has become ideologically less diverse and contradictory, but has also lost its profile and clear identity due to various developments: its specialisation and fragmentation along different issue areas, the strengthening of bonds with non-movement organisations, the acceptance of funding from industry and public administrations, the engagement in joint ventures such as conferences, campaigns, eco-sponsoring and the like (Bergstedt 1998), and the increasing role of green parliamentary politics. These more recent developments have been welcomed by some observers as signs of maturity, whereas others have complained that the movement has been compromised and sold out. Most of these observations and comments, however, are not based on any systematic analysis of the actual changes of the movement, but on casual impressions. Investigating the movement’s protest activities may provide us with more solid information for assessing whether or not sweeping statements about the decline, crisis or taming of the movement can be substantiated. 3 The same threefold typology is also applicable to the environmental movement in 4 2. The Patterns of Recent Environmental Protests in Germany Before presenting empirical findings on various dimensions and aspects of environmental protest in Germany, it is useful to provide some information on the underlying methodology and sources. 2.1 Methodology and data base As indicated in the introductory remarks, the main data base used in this paper is drawn from the German part of the TEA project, thus conforming to the joint coding scheme and the same period of investigation (1988 to 1997). At this point, however, data for only six of these ten years have been collected in Germany (1988 and 1993 to 1997). The existence of a four year gap is regrettable. However, the coverage of 1988, the first year of the period under study, provides us with some clues about changes across the full period. The newspaper used for data collection is the tageseitung (taz) which is located in Berlin. All issues each week (Monday through Saturday) are covered. Besides the general (nationwide) sections of this paper, the local section on Berlin has also been included so that we can compare events perceived as of national vs. local interest. The proportion of events drawn from the national (as opposed to the local) section of the newspaper is fairly stable across the six years. On average, it is 79.2 percent. The taz is usually characterised as an “alternative” or “left-libertarian” newspaper. It was established in 1978 as an outgrowth of New Left and new social movement politics (Flieger 1992). Initially, it was conceived to be a mouthpiece of the movements, but soon it took a more independent stance and professional character. Although the paper is still unconventional in its structure, ownership, internal practices and content when compared to its established counterparts, the taz tends to be a reliable source of information and is widely read among other journalists, partly because of its innovative role and often cheeky style. So, in some sense, it serves as an intermediate agenda setter, although its circulation is small (about 60,000 copies). The quality of the newspaper is also illustrated by the fact that several taz-journalists have Italy (Diani 1995). 5 been hired by the established press, including flagships such as the weeklies Der Spiegel and Die Zeit. From its beginnings, the taz devoted considerable attention to environmental issues. Throughout the 1990s it carried a daily section (usually one page) headed “Economy and the Environment”, which is currently produced by four full-timers plus a number of free-lancers.4 A second data source used in this conference paper is a large collection of protest event data from the Prodat-project (Rucht and Ohlemacher 1992; Rucht and Neidhardt 1997). These data are derived from two nation-wide quality newspapers (Süddeutsche Zeitung [SZ] and Frankfurter Rundschau [FR]), spanning the period from 1950 to 1994 - at present - and including significantly more variables than the TEA-project. Prodat encompasses all kinds of protests of which environmental protests only form a small proportion. Unlike the German TEA-project, a sampling procedure has been applied, incorporating all Monday issues and the remaining issues (Tuesday through Saturday) of each fourth week. Only the nation-wide sections are included in the Prodat study. It is important to note that the results of the two data sets cannot be compared directly inasmuch as these rely on different sources and a different coverage (sample vs. full coverage). Even if we apply the Prodat sample to the TEA-data and exclude the protests derived from the local section of the taz, a comparison of the overlapping years (1988 and 1993-94) exhibits, for some variables, significantly different results. These differences are not due to flaws of one or the other data set, but result from the fact that the overlap between protests reported by the taz on the one hand, and the Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) and Frankfurter Rundschau (FR) on the other, is not as great as one might expect. A more detailed analysis of all protests occuring in 1993 shows that out of the 348 protest events reported by the taz, only 74 events were also reported by both the SZ and the FR, another 38 events only by the SZ, and another 58 events only by the FR. In other words, 51 per cent of the events reported by the taz remained unreported by the SZ and/or the FR (Eilders 2000). Leaving aside such details, it is important to stress the fact that protest analysis of this kind, however thoroughly designed and implemented, has its limitations insofar as it is not representative of the totality of environmental protests. The picture we get 4 Interview conducted by Jochen Roose with Reiner Metzger, 24 February 1999. 6 is highly selective. Unlike in many surveys of individuals, the overall population of protest cases remains unkown. Moreover, the picture only includes a small part of the actual events, many of which get unnoticed by the nationally-oriented newspapers. Finally, the picture is influenced, and partly flawed, by uneven selection criteria of newspapers which are likely to underreport a protest in its early phase when its significance is still unclear, overreport it when it is recognised as newsworthy and potentially growing, and underreport it again when activity simply continues but appears more and more uninteresting to the news-greedy media. Nevertheless, the picture provided by the data is the picture seen by the average reader of quality newspapers. It is this selection, and not so much the body of the unreported or only locally reported events, that has most influence on public discourse and the perceptions of decision-makers. Moreover, the protests covered by nation-wide newspapers are to a large degree those protests which are of particular political relevance because they are very large or very radical. Few of these protests remain unreported by the newspapers, and thus the selectivity problem may be less severe than appears from a first glance. Nevertheless, it is highly advisable to complement and control these kinds of study by other sources such as local newspapers, police records, and/or archival data from movement actors. 2.2 Empirical findings on environmental protest in Germany The evolution of environmental protest in the last three decades and its underlying organisational base in Germany has been described somewhere else (Rucht and Roose 1999). Let me only recapitulate some of the major quantitative findings. First, if we only include the primary claim articulated, environmental protests account for a relatively small proportion of all protest mobilisation between 1970 and 1994. Anti-nuclear protests represent 6.6 per cent and (other) pro-environmental protests 3.9 per cent of all protests. In terms of participants, the respective proportions are 5.3 per cent and 2.9 per cent. This is a remarkable finding, because one might have assumed that the wide range of environmental issues would outweigh the single issue of nuclear power in terms of protest activities. When considered over time, antinuclear and pro-environmental protests gradually increased during the 1970s and tended to remain on a high level, with some significant peaks, until 1994 (Figure 1). 7 Second, throughout the whole period from 1970 to 1994, anti-nuclear protests had a higher share of confrontational and violent protests compared to other environmental protests. Whereas the proportion of confrontational anti-nuclear and other proenvironmental protests increased over time, the number of violent anti-nuclear protests in both categories was highest in the 1980s (Rucht and Roose 1999). Third, anti-nuclear protests are predominantly carried out by informal groups (66 per cent), whereas formal associations are the main carriers of other proenvironmental protests (also 66 per cent). The four big environmental organisations (Greenpeace, WWF, BUND, NABU) have increased in terms of membership and staff between 1980 and 1996/97, whereas the medium-sized organisations partly grew and partly shrunk. With the exception of the totally decentralised network of antinuclear groups, the environmental movement as a whole became more institutionalised and professionalised. It seems that the large organisations have increased their visibility and impact at the expense of the smaller and more informal groups. Nevertheless, a great number of these latter kind of groups are still active. Hence, in an overall perspective, the movement was able to maintain its heterogeneity and its pronounced network character (Rucht 1989). In the following, let us take a closer look at the more recent environmental protests based on the German TEA-data available at this point. As stressed and explained in 8 the brief methodological section, these results cannot be directly compared with the results from the Prodat-study. 2.2.1 The volume of environmental mobilisation In the TEA-study an inclusive definition of environmental protest was applied which also encompasses anti-nuclear protests. Moreover, it should be remembered that the data set used here includes all environmental protests in Eastern Germany from 1993 onward. Hence the figures on 1988 refer only to West Germany and West Berlin, whereas the more recent figures cover the unified Germany. Based on these selection criteria, 1,391 protests on environmental issues were registered in 1988 and 1993-97. Out of these, only 11 are anti-environmentalist. These latter protests are excluded from the further analysis. Table 1 gives an overview of the distribution of protests, participants and average size of environmental protests for each of the six years under investigation. Proportionately most mobilisation occurred in 1988, both in terms of events and participants. This is also the year in which, on average, most participants were mobilised per event. Nevertheless, there is not a trend of continuous decline in mobilisation as some observers have assumed. 1993 was the year with the lowest proportion of events and 1996 the year with the lowest proportion of participants. Compared to the period from 1970 to 1994, both environmental and anti-nuclear protests have considerably increased their relative weight. When refering to the total of all protests reported in the taz between 1995 and mid-1997 (N=1,856), environmental protest (without nuclear power issues) represented only 8.7 percent and anti-nuclear protests an amzingly high proportion of 13.1 per cent. 9 Table 1: Indicators of the volume of mobilisation (Percentages) Year 1988 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Total N Protests Participants Mean Median % % Abs. Abs. 26,3 32.7 16,423 187 9,6 11.6 13,194 600 16,1 24.1 11,433 100 16,7 15.0 10,485 128 13,3 7.0 6,165 239 17,9 9.6 6,997 160 100 100 All years All years 1,380 6,837,734 11,209 150 Figures 2 and 3 break down the number of events and participants for the same six years by quarters. Comparing the distributions of events and participants, it becomes obvious that the latter follow a much more unsteady course because of the presence or absence of mass protests. The relatively high number of events in the first quarter of 1997 underlines that the movement cannot be said to be in decline. In terms of participants, by far the largest number was mobilised in the first quarter of the period of investigation. Looking at the years from 1993 to 1997, we again find no clear indication of shrinking protest activity when considering the number of protesters. Figure 2: Environmental Protests in Germany, 1988 and 1993+ 140 120 80 60 40 20 97 3 97 1 96 3 96 1 95 3 95 1 94 3 94 1 93 3 93 1 88 3 0 88 1 Protests 100 quarters, 1988 and 1993ff. 10 Figure 3: Participants in Environmental Protests in Germany, 1988 and 1993+ 1600000 Participants 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 881 883 931 933 941 943 951 953 961 963 971 973 quarters, 1988 and 1993ff. 2.2.2 The issues and targets of protest When the detailed list of 48 environmental issues is transformed into six broader issue domains, the category of pollution/urban ecology prevails by far (Table 2). Taking the average for all six years, this category represents 72 per cent of all protests. Nature protection follows with 11.7 percent. The remaining four domains are surprisingly small. Table 2: Environmental issues by year (Percentages) 1988 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Military 0.6 Industrial pollution/ 66.9 urban ecology Nature protection 20.1 Animal rights 1.1 Alternative production 6.3 & technology Lifestyle/health 3.0 Other 1.9 Total 100 N 363 2.3 82.0 2.7 82.9 11.7 69.3 0.0 69.0 1988, 1993ff 0.0 2.8 68.8 72.0 6.8 0.8 3.0 3.2 2.3 4.1 5.6 1.7 6.1 13.6 3.3 7.1 14.2 7.7 7.7 11.7 2.8 5.9 0.8 4.5 100 133 2.7 2.3 100 222 3.9 1.7 100 231 5.4 1.6 100 194 1.2 0.4 100 247 2.9 1.9 100.0 1,380 Within the category of industrial pollution/urban ecology, the issue of nuclear energy is clearly dominant (62.6 per cent). Conflicts around the transport and disposal of nuclear waste account for 32.2 per cent of all environmental protests, and conflicts 11 about nuclear power stations represent another 11.9 per cent. In 1993 and 1996, the nuclear issue attracted over half of all environmental protest (54.2 and 53.8 per cent, respectively). It is unlikely that such high proportions are matched in any other country in the 1990s. Although conflicts about nuclear waste in Germany have also attracted protests in earlier periods, the majority of anti-nuclear protests at this time were centered around nuclear power stations and the issue of nuclear reprocessing. When asking for the primary targets of protest, it again appears advisable to have a separate look at the issue of nuclear power (Table 3). Considering all environmental protests, the largest proportion is directed against private economic organisations such as trade companies and corporations (44.4 per cent), followed by state institutions and representatives (together 35.8 per cent). For nuclear energy issues, in which the state is heavily involved, we would expect it to be the main target. However, compared to all environmental protests, on this issue the state is relatively less targeted, while private economic organisations attract 71.2 of all nuclear power protests. Table 3: Primary target of environmental protests and anti-nuclear protests (Percentages) Target Trade associations/ companies Government/ministers State/public institutions/officials Private persons Parties Members of parliament Other associations/churches Other Total N All envir. Only protests anti-nucl. 44.0 71.2 18.8 17.0 10.3 15.8 13.1 0.4 1.3 0.1 5.3 100 957 1.9 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 100 417 When considering the underlying territorial scope of environmental problems, we might anticipate that large-scale and even transnational problems play an increasing role. As can be seen in Table 4, there is no clear trend toward transnational problems. By contrast, national problems clearly dominate in the last two years under consideration. These data, admittedly only spanning a relatively short period, do not show an effect of the widely debated globalisation processes. But even when, based 12 on Prodat data, we consider the much longer period from 1970-94, no such trend is identifiable as far as environmental protest is concerned.5 Table 4: Territorial scope of the underlying environmental problem by year 1988 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Local District Regional/state National EU-countries Europe, general International Total N 31.3 5.3 7.6 31.6 1.5 18.4 4.4 100 342 15.9 8.7 12.7 31.0 27.8 2.4 1.6 100 126 21.2 9.3 14.6 39.7 11.9 1.3 2.0 100 151 19.5 3.5 1.3 35.4 34.1 0.4 5.8 100 226 14.4 6.6 9.4 59.7 1.1 1.1 7.7 100 181 21.5 4.9 2.4 59.8 7.7 0.8 2.8 100 246 1988, 1993+ 22.2 5.9 7.1 42.6 12.3 5.7 4.2 100 1,272 Moreover, when controlling for the territorial level/location of the target of protest, no trend toward the growing relevance of international targets can be identified. Whereas the targets at the national level become more important over time, this is not so for foreign and/or international targets (Table 5). EU-related targets play a surprisingly small role (3.1 per cent for all six years), though environmental problems in EUcountries accounted for 12.3 percent (see Table 4). Overall, sub-national targets attract more than 50 per cent of all environmental protests, and their relevance does not seem to diminish over time. 5 When considering the Prodat data, the proportion of environmental protests focussing on cross-national problems was 8.0 percent in the 1970s, 34.3 per cent in the 1980s, and 21.3 percent from 1990-94. 13 Table 5: Territorial level of target by year (Percentages) 1988 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Local District Regional/state National EU-countries Europe, general International Total N 15.8 5.4 22.5 26.1 0.5 2.7 27.0 100 222 43.2 46.5 1.3 23.2 25.8 1.9 0.0 1.3 100 155 34.6 17.3 1.2 0.0 3.7 100 81 30.2 0.6 16.7 35.2 11.7 0.6 4.9 100 162 4.0 6.5 19.4 64.5 0.8 0.0 4.8 100 124 38.3 4.3 11.7 41.0 2.1 0.0 2.7 100 188 1988, 1993+ 28.8 3.3 20.1 35.0 3.1 0.8 9.0 100 932 2.2.3 The levels and forms of action When comparing the territorial levels on which mobilisation takes place, it becomes clear that sub-national levels, most especially the local one, play an important role (Table 6). The separate analysis for protests only against nuclear energy shows that these are distributed in roughly the same way across territorial levels as in the case of all environmental protests. Table 6: Territorial level of mobilisation by year (Percentages) All environmental protests Local District Regional/state National EU-countries Europe, general International Total N 1988 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 63.0 6.8 6.8 15.8 1.4 2.7 3.4 100 146 63.2 2.6 10.5 21.1 2.6 0.0 0.0 100 76 65.0 15.0 3.3 15.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 100 60 74.5 8.5 6.6 8.5 0.0 1.9 0.0 100 106 54.2 10.2 8.5 20.3 1.7 0.0 5.1 100 59 44.4 13.0 13.0 22.2 3.7 0.0 3.7 100 54 Antinuclear 1988 1993ff 62.7 8.6 7.8 16.2 1.4 1.4 2.0 100 501 1988, 1993+ 63.0 11.5 5.7 15.4 0.9 1.3 2.2 100 227 14 Six broad forms of action have been defined, derived from a more detailed list of 26 different types.6 When all environmental protest are considered, a significant proportion of them are more or less unruly (16.9 per cent confrontational, 11.9 per cent violent) (Table 7). If we look specifically at the subset of anti-nuclear protests, the proportion of confrontational protests is considerably higher (24.6 per cent). The same is true for the category of heavy violence. These results confirm a pattern that also holds across a longer time period (Rucht and Roose 1999): Anti-nuclear protests tend to be significantly more disruptive than all other environmental protests (with the probable exception of issues such as animals rights and genetic engineering. Table 7: Types of environmental and anti-nuclear action* (Percentages) All environmental protests Antinuclear 1988 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1988 1988 1993ff 1993ff Appeal 18.6 9.1 8.6 10.0 14.7 30.0 16.1 7.2 Procedural 9.4 18.2 6.3 7.4 9.2 6.5 8.9 7.7 Demonstrative 51.0 42.4 58.6 46.8 29.3 20.6 42.3 44.5 Confrontational 13.9 21.2 18.5 18.6 15.2 17.4 16.9 24.6 Light violence 0.3 5.3 0.0 2.2 12.5 17.4 5.7 2.4 Heavy violence 0.8 0.8 5.9 12.6 13.6 5.7 6.2 10.9 Other 6.1 3.0 2.3 2.6 5.4 2.4 3.8 2.6 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 N 361 132 222 231 184 247 1,377 622 * only first form of action 6 The following categorisation has been applied: Appeal: signatures/petitions/resolutions/public letters, referendum, press conference, distributing leaflets/posters, illegal billboarding/graffiti/flyposting, cultural performance, noncommercial positive action, indoor assembly/teach in; Procedural: procedural complaint, litigation; Demonstrative: non-verbal protest (e.g. vigil), public protest assembly/rally, demonstration march, hunger strike; Confrontational: boycot, disruption of event, blockade/sit in, strike, occcupation; Light violence: theft/burglary, minor attack on property, aggressive bodily contact; Heavy violence: severe attack on property/arson/bombing, personal injuries (*move to confrontational; homicide/murder. 15 2.2.4 The social and organisational carriers of protest For a minority of the protests (about 14 per cent), we also have some rough information about the social characteristics of the participants. In line with findings from various other contexts, young people are, in relative terms, the most important distinct group to protest (22.4 per cent). To a similar degree, the participants in protests are socially heterogeneous. Next to this category, but representing significantly lower proportions, come students and farmers (Table 8). Table 8: Social characteristics of protesters*, 1988 and 1993-97 (Percentages) Social category Youth Socially heterogeneous Students Farmers Professionals Employees/white collar Women Senior citizens Intellectuals/artists Craft/trade Other Total N * Only first category All environ mental protests 22.4 21.4 8.9 8.3 3.1 2.1 2.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 28.6 100.0 192 Antinuclear only 23.1 31.9 2.2 13.1 5.5 1.1 3.3 0.0 1.1 1.1 17.6 100 91 In addition to the social characteristics of the protesters, the organisational carriers of protest have also been registered as far as information was available. Because quite often several groups and organisations participate in the same protest, up to five different carriers were coded. Combining the information in these five variables, we can display the distribution of types of organisational carriers (Table 9). Again a structural difference between all environmental protests and the subset of anti-nuclear protests becomes apparent. Formal organisations are the largest category (40.3 per cent) when the total of environmental protests is considered, whereas anti-nuclear protests are mainly carried out by informal groups (53.7 per cent). This confirms our 16 view that the anti-nuclear movement is mainly based on small groups without statutes and official membership. Also, the way in which these groups are linked tends to be looser and more informal. No national organisation or firm alliance exists for the antinuclear movement. Instead, its most active groups meet at the so-called Spring and Autumn Conferences to exchange experiences and discuss strategies. Table 9: Organisational carriers of protest, 1988 and 1993-97 (Percentages) Formal environmental organisation Informal environmental group Party Network of groups/ organisations Union Business/industry Other Total N All environ mental protests 40.3 Antinuclear only 24.7 29.6 53.7 13.0 4.5 11.8 4.2 2.4 1.2 8.9 100 1051 0.8 0.3 4.5 100 380 A rough indicator of the network and alliance structure of the movement is the number of groups and organisations per event. For all environmental protests it is 4.0 and for the subset of anti-nuclear protests it is only slightly higher (4.1). However, we should bear in mind that reports on anti-nuclear protests, because of the more informal basis of these activities, tend to provide less information on their organisational basis. In consequence, the average number of anti-nuclear groups may be higher than the available figures suggest. A second indicator for the co-operation of environmental groups is the extent to which individual protests are part of a larger campaign. When all environmental protests are taken together, about one third (32.2 per cent) of them can be attributed to a campaign. In the case of anti-nuclear protests, this proportion is 37.5 per cent – again an indicator that collaboration tends to be more common in the anti-nuclear movement than the rest of the environmental movement. Whereas a single national environmental organisation may stage a large protest based mainly or even 17 exclusively on its own adherents, the relatively small anti-nuclear groups are forced to join together in order to achieve a significant turnout. 2.2.5 Immediate consequences of protests Data on injunctions, the use of physical force, injuries and arrests provide us with an idea of the more concrete circumstances and consequences of protest activities. Injunctions were brought in 10.2 per cent of all environmental protests; they were overwhelmingly (9.6 per cent) enacted by state authorities and, in particular, police force. The use of physical force was registered in 4.9 percent of the cases, again largely exerted by the police (4.4 per cent). Injuries were rare (15 cases, 1.0 per cent), whereas arrests were conducted in 4.5 per cent of the environmental protests. Again, when looking only at anti-nuclear protests, the corresponding figures are higher, confirming the more radical character of anti-nuclear protest: use of injunction 17.0 percent, use of physical force 7.7 per cent, injuries 1.6 per cent, and arrests 8.2 per cent. 3. Discussion and Summary At present, this preliminary analysis based on still incomplete data is purely descriptive. The aim was to shed some light on the profile and patterns of environmental protest. Neither explanations for its occurrence and patterns, nor an analysis of its impacts, was sought. In this final section, some of the major findings will be summarised and briefly discussed. First, the data show that the environmental movement in Germany cannot be said to be in decline, let alone dead. This is true not only in terms of its protest activity but also its organisational infrastructure. Other data not presented here suggest that the large national organisations continue to grow, though not at the relatively high rates seen in earlier periods. The medium-sized organisations have had more mixed fortunes in terms of membership growth and other resources. As for the plethora of autonomous groups active at the local and regional levels, no recent data are available. Scattered information suggests that their number and size is fairly stable (Rucht, Blattert and Rink 1997). One explanation for the overly pessimistic view of the 18 environmental movement could be that the movement of today is no longer as new and exciting as it was in earlier periods. It no longer makes headlines, it is no longer a threat to the established system, its rapid growth rates are over, and therefore its actual activity and size tend to be underestimated. Looking at the internal discourse of the movement, it also appears that some observers dramatise the state of the movement to raise levels of awareness and activity. Similar diagnoses of crisis and decline have also been promoted with regard to the women’s movement (whose infrastructure, however, tends to be quite solid - particularly when considering the local level). A second important finding is the continuing endurance and vitality of anti-nuclear activism (Ehmke 1998; Kolb 1997). Although no nuclear reactors went into operation from the late 1980s, and no concrete plans for the construction of new reactors are underway (though the industry is developing new prototypes), the movement did not fade away as in most other countries. During the 1990s, anti-nuclear protest accounts for half or even more of all environmental protest. The analysis has also shown that nuclear protests differ in several respects from other environmental protests. Above all, they tend to be more radical and are based on a much more decentralised and informal infrastructure which resembles the SPIN-structure (segmented, polycephalous, integrated networks) as described in another context by Gerlach and Hine (1970). A closer look at these protests reveals that the issues of the anti-nuclear struggle have changed. Whereas activism in the 1970s and 1980s was geared to preventing the construction of nuclear facilities (mainly nuclear power stations and a reprocessing plant), the overriding nuclear issue in the 1990s is the transport and temporary storage of nuclear waste. On various occasions, this led to massive and partly radical protest, including clashes with police which were mobilised to an unprecedented scale to protect nuclear transports across the country. Why nuclear transport, which is also conducted in many other countries, is particularly conflictual in Germany, would require a separate comparative analysis. In part, this seems to be a result of a deliberate strategic choice of the German environmental movement which, as early as the late 1970s, had defined the issue of nuclear waste as the Achilles’ heel of the nuclear power programme as a whole. Since the phasing out of nuclear power decided upon in 1986 by the Social Democratic Party seems to be taking much longer than expected, and the nuclear industry pushes to keep nuclear power in place, the stopping of nuclear transports and intermediate storage of nuclear waste would represent the final blow for nuclear power in Germany. In other countries, by contrast, 19 the situation is largely different. Either nuclear power is still largely unquestioned by the established forces (e.g., France, Belgium, Great Britain) and the anti-nuclear movement is far too weak to make any change, or nuclear power is no longer, or remains only for a limited period, an option (e.g., Austria, Italy, Sweden). A third finding of this paper is the absence of remarkable changes to environmental protests over time. Although only six out of ten years are currently covered, the inclusion of the first year (1988) and its comparison with the five last years (1993-97) should enable us to identify any major changes. While we do see significant changes form year to year when it comes to the number of events or participants, as well as the forms, targets, levels and other aspects of environmental protest, these changes do not form a clearly identifiable trend over time. In particular, they do not lend support to assumptions of a de-radicalisation or transnationalisation of the movement. A time span of ten years is probably too short to identify clear-cut trends, but there is still a striking discrepancy between the widespread and often strong opinions about allegedly “obvious” developments and the empirical evidence as provided by protest event analysis. 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