Emergence:
The Good, The Bad
and The Ugly
George R. McConnell
Overview
We all have lots to learn
His progress through life was hampered by his
tremendous sense of his own ignorance, a
disability which affects all too few people
Summary
• ALL systems exhibit emergent properties
• Emergent properties really are GOOD, BAD and UGLY
• Systems Engineers need to know more than JUST engineering
• INCOSE is a great source of information/knowledge
• and networking like this is an important part of that
Why Me
• Emergence: A Challenge for the Systematic,
INCOSE International Symposium, Minneapolis, July 2000
• Emergence: Open Your Eyes to New Vistas,
INCOSE International Symposium, Melbourne, July 2001
• Emergence: A Partial History of Systems Thinking,
INCOSE International Symposium, Las Vegas, July 2002
• Emergence: Applying the Principles - Using Genetic Algorithms to
Derive Schedules,
INCOSE International Symposium, Washington, July 2003
• Reprised at INCOSE UK “Best of British” Spring Symposium,
Swindon, April 2006
• Emergence : The Complexity of Systems Interaction,
INCOSE International Symposium, Rochester, July 2005 (not presented)
• Emergence : Still a Challenge for the Systematic,
INCOSE International Symposium, Utrecht, June 2008.
• Emergence : All in the Minds,
INCOSE International Symposium, Singapore, July 2009 (not presented)
Cynefin Framework
Dave Snowden
Typical Defence Systems Life Cycle
From the SE Handbook
The Seven Samurai
James N Martin
What is a System? - Definition
An open set of complementary, interacting parts, with properties,
capabilities and behaviours of the set emerging both from the parts and
from their interactions to synthesize a unified whole
open - the system can accept additions and losses, inflows and outflows
set - a grouping of things that have something in common
complementary - together, making up a whole
interacting - acting with each other, i.e., essentially dynamic
parts - entities, pieces of a whole, subsystems
properties - tangible, usually physical, features such as mass, volume, shape,
appearance, etc.
capabilities - upper limits to functional abilities
behaviours - reactions to stimuli
of the set - of the whole system
unified whole - the various parts operate together as one - the whole.
Derek Hitchins
What is a System? - PICARD
Products +
Interactions +
Context +
Actions +
Relationships +
Destiny
James N Martin
What is a System? - INCOSE
A construct or collection of different elements that together
produce results not obtainable by the elements alone.
The elements, or parts, can include people, hardware,
software, facilities, policies, and documents; that is, all
things required to produce systems-level results.
The results include system level qualities, properties,
characteristics, functions, behavior and performance.
The value added by the system as a whole, beyond that
contributed independently by the parts, is
primarily created by the relationship among the parts;
that is, how they are interconnected
Eberhardt Rechtin
A Consensus of the INCOSE Fellows
An engineering discipline whose responsibility is creating and
executing an interdisciplinary process to ensure that the
customer and stakeholder needs are satisfied in a high quality,
trustworthy, cost efficient and schedule compliant manner
throughout a system's entire life cycle. This process is usually
comprised of seven tasks: State the problem, Investigate
alternatives, Model the system, Integrate, Launch the system,
Assess performance, and Re-evaluate : SIMILAR.
It is important to note that the process is not sequential. The
functions are performed in a parallel and iterative manner.
What is a System? - ontology
Jack Ring
The essence of Systems Engineering
Systems ideas, systems science, systems thinking, systems
theory and systems engineering are centred around the notion of
emergence - it is this feature that characterises and distinguishes
'systems' from other disciplines and pursuits of understanding.
For instance, the essence of systems engineering may be seen as
the bringing together of the right parts to interact in the right way
and for those interactions to be so orchestrated as to produce
requisite emergent properties, capabilities and behaviours.
It is philosophically possible to 'create' emergent properties,
capabilities and behaviours to order - indeed, that is, or should be,
the driving purpose of systems design and systems engineering.
Derek Hitchins
Summary
• ALL systems exhibit emergent properties
• Emergent properties really are GOOD, BAD and UGLY
• Systems Engineers need to know more than JUST engineering
• INCOSE is a great source of information/knowledge
• and networking like this is an important part of that
Dimensions of emergent properties
Expected
Beneficial
Understood
Predictable
Xn+1 = 1.9 - Xn2
Sensitivity to precision
Sensitivity to initial conditions
Uncertainty
Summary
• ALL systems exhibit emergent properties
• Emergent properties really are GOOD, BAD and UGLY
• Systems Engineers need to know more than JUST engineering
• INCOSE is a great source of information/knowledge
• and networking like this is an important part of that
Wholophilia
Its (not quite so) obvious
Kant… accepted the notion of things-in-themselves existing
independently of any knowledge… As his starting point [he
took it] that any specific knowledge we claim to have of such
and such an external object is obtained through our senses,
[and] hence is at best only indirect and questionable… What
we know directly and with certainty is therefore only the set of
our ideas. [For example,] the very notion of causality [is] a
priori mode of human understanding, in other words, an idea.
– d’Espagnat
(link to video)
The Seven Samurai
James N Martin
Summary
• ALL systems exhibit emergent properties
• Emergent properties really are GOOD, BAD and UGLY
• Systems Engineers need to know more than JUST engineering
• INCOSE is a great source of information/knowledge
• and networking like this is an important part of that
Any Questions?