Savills World Research
Beijing
Briefing
Residential sales
October 2015
Image: COFCO Ruifu, Chaoyang district
SUMMARY
As consumer confidence returns to the market, the first-hand mass market witnessed
significant growth in both supply and transaction volumes in Q3/2015.
 Beijing’s first-hand residential
market continued to display a positive
performance in Q3/2015. Supply
levels grew 28.6% quarter-on-quarter
(QoQ) to approximately 2.7 million sq
m, while transaction volumes jumped
38% QoQ to around 2.8 million sq m,
bringing the year-to-date (YTD) volume
to approximately 6.3 million sq m.
Supported by growing demand, the firsthand residential price index registered
an increase of 3.1% QoQ by the end of
September 2015.
 The high-end market welcomed an
influx of supply in the third quarter of
2015. Four Grade A apartments and
seven high-end villas (including new
phases of existing projects) entered the
sales market, contributing a total of 705
units and 635 units, respectively.
 Grade A apartment transaction
volumes increased 13.9% year-onyear (YoY) to 450 units. The launch of
a number of high quality projects in
Q3/2015 pushed average prices up to
RMB75,200 per sq m, representing a
growth of 9.8% QoQ and 15.6% YoY.
 Spurred on by the influx of new
supply, high-end villa transaction
volumes increased 50% QoQ to 303
units, while average prices grew 4.1%
YoY to RMB53,700 per sq m by the end
of Q3/2015.
 With the stock market continuing
to fluctuate, along with falling prices
of residential properties in secondtier cities, first-tier city residential
markets continue to stand out as a
less risky investment vehicle for many
investors. As a result, it is expected that
transaction volumes will continue to
pick up and that prices will grow mildly
throughout the remainder of 2015.
“With the stock market continuing
to fluctuate, along with the falling
prices of residential properties
in second-tier cities, the Beijing
residential market continues to
stand out as a less risky investment
vehicle for many investors.”
Jack Xiong, Savills Research& Consultancy
savills.com.cn/research
01
Briefing | Beijing residential sales
On the back of the recent stimulation
policies by the government, followed
by the loosening of housing loans
and cutting of interest rates four
times this year, the Beijing massresidential market appears to be
regaining stability as consumer
confidence grows.
GRAPH 1
First-hand mass-market residential supply,
absorption and price index, Q1/2006–Q3/2015
Supply (LHS)
7
Absorption (LHS)
350
300
5
250
4
200
3
150
2
100
1
50
0
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Source: Beijing Real Estate Transaction and Management Bureau, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics,
Savills Research
GRAPH 2
First-hand Grade A apartment market supply,
absorption and price, Q1/2006–Q3/2015
Figure 2 EN
Supply (LHS)
Price (RHS)
105,000
3,000
90,000
2,500
75,000
2,000
60,000
1,500
45,000
1,000
30,000
500
15,000
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Savills Research
12
13
14
15
0
RMB per sq m
Units
Absorption (LHS)
3,500 Units
Page 1
02
Price index (RHS)
6
06
First-hand Grade A
apartment market
Looking to capitalise on the
traditional peak purchasing season of
September, many developers timed
their entrance into the sales market
for Q3/2015. The influx of supply saw
four Grade A apartments enter the
market, contributing a total of 705
units. The projects included: Zhen
Garden (臻园) in Chaoyang district
(173 units); Oceanwide International
(泛海国际) in Chaoyang district (138
The high-end villa market welcomed
an influx of supply in the third
June 2005 = 100
Mirroring last quarter’s performance,
both supply and transaction volumes
witnessed significant growth in the
third quarter. Supply levels increased
28.6% QoQ to approximately 2.7
million sq m, while transaction
volumes jumped 38% QoQ to
around 2.8 million sq m, bringing the
YTD volume to approximately 6.3
million sq m. Supported by growing
demand, the first-hand residential
price index registered an increase of
3.1% QoQ by the end of September
2015. As a result of growing
consumer confidence, Beijing’s
mass-residential market is forecasted
to experience positive performance
in the remaining quarter of 2015.
First-hand high-end villa
market
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
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Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
First-hand mass-market
overview
Steady demand from high-net-worth
individuals (HNWIs), combined with
new supply entering the market,
saw Grade A apartment transaction
volumes increase 13.9% YoY to 450
units by the end of the quarter. The
launch of a number of high quality
projects during the period pushed
average prices up to RMB75,200
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
On the back of the recent stimulation
policies by the government, followed
by the loosening of housing loans and
cutting of interest rates four times
this year, the Beijing mass-residential
market appears to be regaining
stability as consumer confidence
returns. As a result, Beijing’s massresidential market is forecasted to
experience a positive performance in
the remaining quarter of 2015.
per sq m, representing a growth of
9.8% QoQ and 15.6% YoY. Notably,
a new project, One Central (使馆壹号
院) in Dongcheng district, proposed
asking prices in the RMB133,000
to RMB177,000 per sq m range, an
indication of the market’s movement
towards an era of average prices of
over RMB100,000 per sq m.
units); Oak Bay (橡树湾) in Haidian
district (184 units – new phase)
and One Central (使馆壹号院) in
Dongcheng district (210 units).
million sq m
Policies
October 2015
October 2015
Briefing | Beijing residential sales
TABLE 1
New high-end apartments, Q3/2015
Zhen Garden
（臻园– new phase）
Oceanwide International
（泛海国际– new phase）
Oak Bay
（橡树湾 – new phase）
One Central
（使馆壹号院）
Chaoyang district
Chaoyang district
Haidian district
Dongcheng district
CMPD & Wharf China
Oceanwide Estate
China Resources Land
Sunac
57,000–65,000
80,000–86,000
77,000–79,000
133,000–177,000
173
138
184
210
Wonderland Mansion
（燕西华府 – new phase）
The Capital Hill
（西山艺境 – new phase）
The Masterpiece 1688
（新世界丽樽 – new phase）
COFCO Ruifu
（中粮•瑞府 – new phase）
Fengtai district
Mentougou district
Shunyi district
Chaoyang district
Yicheng Real Estate
Gemdale & Powerchina
New World China Land
COFCO Property
38,000–41,000
42,000–79,000
40,000–48,000
70,000–200,000
Units
184
36
105
61
Project
Vermont Hills
（凯德•麓语）
XANADU
（首创禧瑞墅）
Positano Vita
（华润•润西山 – new phase）
Changping district
Shunyi district
Mentougou district
Capitaland
Beijing Capital Land
China Resources
41,000–50,000
30,000–43,000
45,000–62,000
86
92
71
Project
Location
Developer
Pre-sale price
(RMB per sq m)
Units
Source: Savills Research
TABLE 2
New high-end villas, Q3/2015
Project
Location
Developer
Pre-sale price
(RMB per sq m)
Location
Developer
Pre-sale price
(RMB per sq m)
Units
Source: Savills Research
03
Briefing | Beijing residential sales
October 2015
quarter of 2015, with seven highend villas (including the new phases
of existing projects) entering the
market, contributing a total of 635
units. Spurred on by the influx of new
supply, high-end villa transaction
volumes increased 50% QoQ to
303 units. With strong demand from
HNWIs, average prices continued to
grow by 4.1% YoY to RMB53,700 per
sq m by the end of Q3/2015.
market. While steady demand from
HNWIs is expected to continue to
support price appreciation in the
area, take-up is expected to slow
down as the market struggles to
digest the new inventory levels.
residential land plots accounted for the
majority of total transaction volumes,
and the most notable deal of the
quarter was the Sunhe plot located in
Chaoyang district, which was acquired
through a joint acquisition for a total
consideration of RMB6.48 billion.
Residential land market
Beijing’s land market transaction
volumes increased 78.9% QoQ to
RMB35.9 billion. Returning consumer
confidence in the residential market,
combined with Beijing continuing
to be viewed as one of the most
strategically important markets,
has led to strong interest in land
acquisition in the capital. As a result,
Shunyi district received a significant
amount of the new supply, with two
projects, The Masterpiece 1688 (新
世界丽樽) and XANADU (首创禧瑞
墅), adding close to 200 units to the
GRAPH 3
First-hand high-end villa market supply, absorption
and price, Q1/2006–Q3/2015
Figure 3 EN
Absorption (LHS)
Price (RHS)
800
80,000
700
70,000
600
60,000
500
50,000
400
40,000
300
30,000
200
20,000
100
10,000
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
90,000
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
RMB per sq m
Units
Supply (LHS)
900
0
15
Source: Savills Research
Market outlook
With the stock market continuing to
fluctuate, along with falling prices
of residential properties in secondtier cities, first-tier cities’ residential
markets continue to stand out as a
less risky investment vehicle for many
investors. As a result, it is expected
that transaction volumes in the firsthand residential market will continue to
pick up and that prices will grow mildly
throughout the remainder of 2015.
Seven high-end apartments and
three high-end villas are scheduled
to enter the market in the coming 15
months, of which the majority are
expected to propose prices higher
than RMB100,000 per sq m. Overall
transaction volumes are expected to
increase given growing demand from
HNWIs, although the selling rates of
individual projects are expected to
slow down amid fiercer competition.
Meanwhile, overall average prices
are anticipated to steadily increase
given the high proposed prices of
new projects, and continue to move
towards an era of amounts over
RMB100,000 per sq m. 
Page 1
TABLE 3
Major residential land transactions, Q3/2015
Plot
District
Planned GFA
(sq m)
Consideration
(RMB billion)
Accommodation value
(RMB per sq m)
Buyer
Sunhe plot
Chaoyang district
143,685
6.48
56,000
Poly & Beijing Capital
Development
Shiliuzhuang plot
Fengtai district
166,387
5.03
34,000
China Railway Construction
& Franshion Properties
Dongba plot
Chaoyang district
159,783
4.25
60,000
Poly & Beijing Capital
Development & Longfor
Source: Savills Research, Beijing Land Consolidation and Reserve Centre
04
Briefing | Beijing residential sales
October 2015
TABLE 4
Future supply, Q4/2015–2016
No.
Project (EN)
Project (CN)
Location
Property Type
Supply (units)
Scheduled
launch time
Proposed price
(RMB per sq m)
1
Ocean Epoch
远洋天著春秋
Shijingshan
Villa
TBD
Q4/2015
TBD
2
One Sino Park
北京壹号院
Lufthansa
Apartment
TBD
Q4/2015
150,000–250,000
3
Central Park Plaza
骏豪•中央公园广场
Chaoyang Park
Apartment
49
Q4/2015
100,000–150,000
4
Sanlitun No.1
三里屯壹号
Sanlitun
Apartment
48
Q4/2015
100,000–150,000
5
Evergrande Huafu
恒大华府
Dongba
Apartment
126
Q4/2015
Around 100,000
6
Mandarin Court
Phase II
长安太和二期
East Chang’an
Avenue
Apartment
TBD
2016
TBD
7
La Vita E Bella
保利首开天誉
Dongba
Villa
116
2016
Around 100,000
8
Kunlun Mansion
华润昆仑域
Fengtai
Apartment
TBD
2016
TBD
9
Peking Mansion
华润北平府
Dongcheng
Villa (Sihe yard)
TBD
2016
TBD
10
Kaisa Plaza
佳兆业广场
CBD
Apartment
273
2016
100,000–150,000
Source: Savills Research
Please contact us for further information
Savills Research
Savills Beijing Research Savills Residential Sales
& Consultancy
James Macdonald
Director, China
+8621 6391 6688
[email protected]
Jack Xiong
Director
+8610 5925 2042
[email protected]
Anthony McQuade
Senior Director
+8610 5925 2002
[email protected]
Angela Lu
Associate Director
+8610 5925 2068
[email protected]
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