7/23/2014
Nine Economic Regions of Kentucky
provocative facts, policy challenges for future
Paul Coomes, Ph.D.
Consulting Economist, Kentucky Chamber
Emeritus Professor of Economics
University of Louisville
July 22, 2014
Television Market Boundaries
KY is somewhere in here. TV stations don’t care.
10 Television Market Boundaries around Kentucky
all except Lexington and Bowling Green stations are multi‐state
Bowling Green: CBS broadcast is from WTVF in Nashville TN
Somerset: cable provides WBIR‐NBC from Knoxville TN
1
7/23/2014
A Google Map View
Stylized economic regions based on major cities, TV markets, and terrain.
Louisville‐
Elizabethtown‐
Southern Indiana
Cincinnati‐
Northern Kentucky
Lexington
Ashland‐
Huntington‐
Charleston
Evansville‐
Owensboro‐
Henderson
Mountain
Paducah‐
Purchase
Bowling Green‐
Hopkinsville‐
Nashville
Somerset‐
Cumberland‐
Knoxville
What was Kentucky’s 1958 rank among states in terms of earned per capita income?
 32nd
 38th
 46th

 50th
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7/23/2014
Relative Prosperity
Earned Income per Capita, Kentucky vs. US
0.84
43rd rank 0.82
0.80
0.78
0.76
0.74
46th rank among 50 states
46th rank 47th rank 0.72
0.70
0.68
0.66
0.64
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; calculated by subtracting transfer payments from total personal income, then dividing by population. Chart shows the ratio of Kentucky to United States. For example, in 2012, Kentucky had$27,500 in earned income per capita vs. $36,200 in the US overall. So, the ratio is 0.76. Kentucky ranked 46th among states, ahead of Mississippi, West Virginia, Arkansas and South Carolina.
0.62
1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Which of the nine regions is the most densely populated?
 Louisville
 Northern Kentucky

 Mountain
 Lexington
Density: Population per Square Mile, 2012
250
232.7
218.5
200
150
Northern Kentucky and Louisville regions three times more dense than five most sparse regions: economies of scale in cost of delivering public services (e.g., schools, safety, roads, health care).
134.3
110.3
100
80.4
73.3
69.2
68.4
68.3
58.3
50
0
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7/23/2014
Population Density by County, Top 20 and Bottom 20
Top three counties over 30 times more dense than sparsest counties.
Jefferson
Fayette
Kenton
Campbell
Boone
Oldham
Boyd
Jessamine
McCracken
Bullitt
Franklin
Warren
Daviess
Madison
Scott
Hardin
Boyle
Clark
Montgomery
Laurel
1,966.1
1,083.9
1,003.7
599.6
505.2
329.6
305.1
290.1
260.5
256.8
235.9
217.1
212.3
194.3
175.1
172.2
159.9
140.0
137.3
136.8
Todd
Elliott
Wolfe
Monroe
Trigg
Menifee
Fulton
Owen
Butler
Livingston
Lewis
Breathitt
Leslie
Carlisle
Crittenden
Owsley
Robertson
Cumberland
Hickman
33.2
32.6
32.5
32.3
32.2
30.8
30.6
30.3
29.9
29.6
28.5
27.3
27.3
26.0
25.6
23.5
22.4
22.2
19.4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Which of the nine regions has the least population growth this decade?
 Mountain

 Cumberland
 Paducah ‐ Purchase
 Louisville
This decade so far
Total Population Change, 2010 to 2013
Source: US Census Bureau
Louisville
28,120
Lexington
21,030
Northern Kentucky
9,246
Bowling Green‐Hopkinsville
6,337
Owensboro‐Henderson
1,136
Cumberland
843
Paducah‐Purchase
‐428
Ashland
Mountain
‐15,000
‐10,000
‐5,000
Kentucky as a whole gained
56,000 persons
‐1,846
‐8,500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
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This decade so far
Percent Population Change, 2010 to 2013
Source: US Census Bureau
Lexington
2.3%
Louisville
2.2%
Northern Kentucky
2.0%
Bowling Green‐Hopkinsville
1.6%
Owensboro‐Henderson
0.4%
Cumberland
0.3%
Kentucky State Total: 1.3%
Paducah‐Purchase
‐0.2%
‐1.2% Ashland
‐2.5%
‐3.0%
‐2.0%
Mountain
‐1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
This decade so far
Natural Population Increase, 2010 to 2013, Births minus Deaths
Source: US Census Bureau
Louisville
16,415
Lexington
10,887
Northern Kentucky
8,384
Bowling Green‐Hopkinsville
5,626
Cumberland
1,321
Owensboro‐Henderson
1,285
Ashland
‐73
Paducah‐Purchase
‐754
Mountain
‐808
‐2,000
Kentucky State Totals:
179,000 births
137,000 deaths
net gain of 42,000 persons
more deaths than births
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Last four decades………
Population of Regions, 1969 and 2013
1,400,000
Growth 1969 to 2013
1,200,000
311,575
1969
Source: US Census Bureau
1,000,000
800,000
379,293
600,000
Mountain region was third most populated; now is fifth, and heading towards seventh.
Regions contain 28 counties, with combined population less than that of Jefferson County
991,333
400,000
158,097
131,213
7,267
539,488
200,000
49,130
109,633
35,438
324,982
308,477
273,042
243,900
15,649
194,843
187,678
134,257
0
5
7/23/2014
Population of Regions East of I‐75, Four Decades
450,000
Peak: 408,000 in 1983
400,000
Net loss of 76,000 since 1983
350,000
Mountain
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: US Census Bureau
0
Population of Regions East of I‐75, Four Decades
450,000
400,000
Net loss of 76,000 since 1983
350,000
Mountain
300,000
Cumberland
Net gain of 49,000 since 1983
250,000
200,000
150,000
Ashland
100,000
50,000
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: US Census Bureau
0
Which region has the highest income from agriculture?
 Owensboro‐Henderson
 Bowling Green ‐ Hopkinsville
 Cumberland
 Lexington

6
7/23/2014
Average Annual Farm Income, 2003‐2012, by Economic Region
$300,000,000
Equine…
$250,000,000
Grain, poultry, livestock…
$255,523,100
$242,299,000$239,723,000
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; includes wages, salaries and farm proprietors' income.
$200,756,100
$200,000,000
Total farm earnings in 2012 were $1.1 billion, which was 1% of total labor and proprietors’ income in Kentucky.
$150,000,000
$100,000,000
$80,180,100
$50,000,000
$22,089,700
$5,642,600
$0
‐$3,718,200
‐$9,913,400
‐$50,000,000
Which region has the highest income from mining?
 Owensboro‐Henderson
 Paducah ‐ Purchase
 Mountain

 Lexington
Earnings from Mining Industries, 2012, by Economic Region
$1,400,000,000
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; includes wages, salaries and proprietors' income. Some county‐level estimates imputed by $1,253,119,000
Mountain and author; $138 million could not be assigned to any county.
Owensboro‐Henderson regions ($1.7 billion) account for 75% of Total earnings from Kentucky total
mining in 2012 were $1,200,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$800,000,000
$2.2 billion, which was 2% of total labor and proprietors’ income in Kentucky.
$600,000,000
$400,000,000
$398,868,000
$201,759,000
$200,000,000
$68,542,000 $58,235,000
$39,632,000 $33,143,000 $29,334,000
$3,858,000
$0
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7/23/2014
Which region has the highest income from manufacturing?
 Louisville

 Ashland
 Lexington
 Northern Kentucky
Earnings from Manufacturing Industries, 2012, by Economic Region
$6,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; includes wages, salaries and proprietors' income.
Louisville and Lexington regions ($9 billion) account for 58% of Kentucky total
$5,421,629,000
Total earnings from manufacturing in 2012 were $15.7 billion, which was 14% of total labor and proprietors’ income in Kentucky.
$3,622,803,000
$3,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$1,683,255,000$1,629,833,000
$1,275,473,000
$817,746,000
$1,000,000,000
$669,310,000
$378,213,000
$125,637,000
$0
Which region has the highest income from distribution industries?
 Louisville

 Bowling Green ‐ Hopkinsville
 Lexington
 Northern Kentucky
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7/23/2014
Earnings from Distribution Industries, 2012, by Economic Region
$3,000,000,000
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; includes wages, salaries and proprietors' income. Distribution includes alls transportation and warehousing industries. Estimates imputed for some counties by author; about $660 million could not be assigned to any county.
$2,547,205,000
$2,500,000,000
Louisville accounts for 44% of state total. Triangle regions combined account for 66% of Kentucky total
$2,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
Total earnings from distribution in 2012 were $5.8 billion, which was 5% of total labor and proprietors’ income in Kentucky.
$731,517,000
$582,648,000
$500,000,000
$367,043,000
$222,557,000 $203,341,000 $184,580,000 $174,393,000
$150,239,000
$0
Which region has the highest income from office industries?
 Louisville

 Bowling Green ‐ Hopkinsville
 Lexington
 Northern Kentucky
Earnings from Office Industries, 2012, by Economic Region
$3,000,000,000
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; includes wages, salaries and proprietors' income. Distribution includes all professional, scientific, and technical service industries. About $275 million could not be assigned to any county.
$2,643,889,000
$2,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
Louisville region accounts for 46% of state total. Triangle regions combined $1,358,505,000account for 79% of Kentucky total
$1,000,000,000
Total earnings from office industries in 2012 were $5.8 billion, which was 5% of total labor and proprietors’ income in Kentucky.
$559,664,000
$500,000,000
$283,357,000
$162,867,000 $161,675,000 $124,528,000 $122,822,000
$105,255,000
$0
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7/23/2014
Which region has had the strongest job growth since the bottom of the 2008‐09 recession?
 Lexington

 Bowling Green ‐ Hopkinsville
 Paducah ‐ Purchase
 Ashland
Employment Growth Since Bottom of Last Recession
All Industries, and Manufacturing
25%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, compiled from county details. Growth is from July 2009 to December 2013. 22.3%
21.4%
All Industries
Manufacturing
20%
14.5%
15%
13.1%
12.7%
12.6%
11.3%
11.1%
9.9%
10%
8.5%
8.5%
8.0%
7.3%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
5%
12.6%
4.8%
3.4%
3.6%
3.4%
0.7%
0%
‐5%
‐5.3%
‐8.5%
‐10%
‐15%
Wage and Salary Growth Since Bottom of Last Recession
All Industries, and Manufacturing
50%
All Industries
Manufacturing
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, compiled from county
details. Growth is from 2009 II to 2013 IV. 40%
33.7%
33.6%
30.0%
28.3%
30%
40.3%
39.8%
27.1%
25.0%
23.7%
23.6%
20%
17.3%
17.0%
18.8%
17.7%
20.2%
20.1%
16.8%
14.8%
11.9%
8.5%
10%
9.7%
5.8%
0%
2.3%
‐10%
‐9.7%
‐20%
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7/23/2014
Which region has the largest private industry payroll per capita in Kentucky?
 Louisville

 Bowling Green ‐ Hopkinsville
 Lexington
 Northern Kentucky
Private Industry Payrolls per Capita, by Region, 2012
Louisville
$25,575
Northern Kentucky
$21,353
Lexington
urban, dense
$19,191
Paducah ‐ Purchase
$18,955
Owensboro‐Henderson
$17,967
Bowling Green ‐ Hopkinsville
$16,333
Ashland
$15,299
Mountains
$12,933
Cumberland
$12,275
rural, sparse
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; includes wages, salaries, proprietors' income, all industries minus government.
Kentucky
$19,854
United States
$25,814
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
Share of Private Industry Earnings in Kentucky, 2012
2.7%
4.3%
Cumberland
4.9%
Ashland
Paducah‐Purchase
5.0%
Mountain
38.0%
6.1%
Owensboro‐Henderson
Louisville
Bowling Green‐Hopkinsville
7.6%
70% of private payrolls in Kentucky from three of the nine regions
Northern KY
Lexington
11.4%
20.1%
11
7/23/2014
Top Ten Counties in Terms of Private Industry Labor and Proprietors' Earnings, 2012
Share of All Earnings Share of in Private Earnings
State
County
Louisville
Jefferson
$26,501,818,000
30.8%
Lexington
Fayette
$8,771,357,000
10.2%
75.6%
Florence
Boone
$4,197,889,000
4.9%
91.0%
Covington
Kenton
$3,567,815,000
4.2%
82.8%
Bowling Green
Warren
$2,518,242,000
2.9%
81.8%
Paducah McCracken
$1,920,737,000
2.2%
87.2%
88.4%
Owensboro
Daviess
$1,808,665,000
2.1%
76.1%
Elizabethtown
Hardin
$1,674,054,000
1.9%
46.9%
Ashland
Boyd
$1,481,972,000
1.7%
88.2%
Georgetown
Scott
$1,387,776,000
1.6%
91.6%
rest of state $32,076,812,000
37.3%
71.4%
Kentucky, total
$85,907,137,000
100.0%
78.2%
Four counties account for one‐half of Kentucky total private sector income
Note: all top counties are urban, except Scott (Toyota)
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Which of the regions has the highest government payroll per capita?
 Lexington
 Bowling Green ‐ Hopkinsville

 Louisville
 Mountain
Government Payrolls per Capita, 2012, by Economic Region
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$11,291
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Fort Campbell
Frankfort
Fort Knox
$5,999
$6,000
$5,004
$4,106
$4,000
$4,000
$3,890
$3,267
$3,096
$2,880
$2,000
$0
12
7/23/2014
Top Twenty Counties in Terms of Government's Share of Total Labor and Proprietors' Earnings, 2012
In twelve counties, over 40% of earnings from government employment.
Two counties – Christian and Hardin – dominated by military.
Franklin is home state government.
Lyon County: KY State Penitentiary at Eddyville.
Other eight are all in eastern Kentucky.
Share of Share of Kentucky All Total Earnings in Government County
Earnings
73.8%
15.3%
68.2%
0.1%
57.4%
0.4%
52.8%
4.1%
52.8%
8.2%
48.9%
0.1%
48.4%
0.0%
48.3%
0.1%
48.1%
0.2%
46.1%
0.2%
44.6%
0.4%
40.4%
0.1%
37.1%
0.1%
36.8%
0.3%
36.2%
0.2%
35.9%
0.2%
35.9%
0.7%
34.2%
0.2%
33.7%
1.2%
33.5%
0.1%
Christian
Elliott
McCreary
Franklin
Hardin
Menifee
Robertson
Owsley
Edmonson
Lyon
Clay
Wolfe
Spencer
Martin
Breathitt
Green
Rowan
Jackson
Calloway
Bath
Earnings from Government
$3,489,293,000
$25,756,000
$82,947,000
$936,163,000
$1,884,742,000
$20,209,000
$6,477,000
$13,595,000
$38,435,000
$48,048,000
$93,492,000
$20,245,000
$31,593,000
$66,100,000
$56,219,000
$37,718,000
$163,922,000
$34,485,000
$264,448,000
$26,833,000
rest of state $15,538,042,000
15.9%
67.9%
Kentucky
$22,878,762,000
20.8%
100.0%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Which region has the highest transfer payments per capita?
 Lexington
 Paducah ‐ Purchase
 Ashland

 Mountain
Transfer Payments per Capita, 2012, by Region
Mountain: $3.9 billion total, or 40%
of personal income
Mountain
$11,653
Cumberland: $3.2 billion total, or 38%
of personal income
Cumberland
$10,476
Ashland
$10,002
Paducah‐Purchase
$8,963
Owensboro‐Henderson
$8,610
Bowling Green‐Hopkinsville
$7,737
Louisville
$7,578
Lexington
$7,417
NKY: $3.1 billion total, or 17%
of personal income
Northern Kentucky
Kentucky
$6,580
$8,190
United States
$7,512
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
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7/23/2014
43 Years of Transfer Payments by Region
relative to national average
1.6
1.5
Transfer Payments per Capita, 2012
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
National average: $310 in 1969; $7,733 in 2012
0.9
Source of county data: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Transfer Payments per Capita, 1969
43 Years of Transfer Payments by Region
relative to national average
1.6
Mountains
$387 in 1969; $11,653 in 2012
1.5
Transfer Payments per Capita, 2012
1.4
Mountain and Cumberland regions much more dependent in 2012 than in 1969.
Cumberland
Ashland
1.3
1.2
Paducah ‐ Purchase
Owensboro‐Henderson
1.1
1.0
Bowling Green ‐
Hopkinsville
Louisville
Lexington
0.9
Northern Kentucky
National average: $310 in 1969; $7,733 in 2012
Source of county data: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Transfer Payments per Capita, 1969
Transfer Payments as Share of County Personal Income, 2012
60%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
3 counties above 50%
50%
23 counties 40% or higher
40%
30%
20%
National average is 17%
Scott
Fayette
Campbell
Bullitt
Nelson
Jessamine
Ballard
Daviess
Gallatin
Webster
Bourbon
Pendleton
Todd
Carroll
Boyle
Grant
McLean
Hickman
Lyon
Graves
Garrard
Livingston
Pike
Hart
Crittenden
Bath
Muhlenberg
Floyd
Green
Powell
Morgan
Estill
Metcalfe
Elliott
Martin
Wayne
Jackson
Breathitt
Clay
0%
Owsley
10%
14
7/23/2014
Which region has the highest rate of disabilities among working age adults?
 Cumberland
 Paducah ‐ Purchase
 Ashland

 Mountain
Percent of Adult Population Reporting a Disability, by Region
Mountain
28.6%
Cumberland
20.3%
Ashland
19.8%
Bowling Green‐
Hopkinsville
15.6%
Paducah‐Purchase
14.3%
Lexington
13.9%
Louisville
13.3%
Northern Kentucky
11.8%
Owensboro‐Henderson
6.9%
Kentucky
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2008‐12, Table C1820, universe includes population aged 18 to 64.
15.5%
United States
10.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Percent of Population Aged 18 to 64, Reporting a Disability, Kentucky Counties
Top 18 counties are in eastern Kentucky
Breathitt
McCreary
Jackson
Magoffin
Menifee
Estill
Bell
Perry
Bath
Morgan
Knox
Livingston
Pulaski
Montgomery
Casey
Boyd
Allen
Fleming
Barren
Henry
Carroll
Hancock
Owen
Mason
Franklin
Ohio
Clark
Anderson
Ballard
Grant
Hardin
Rowan
Simpson
Christian
Jefferson
Kenton
Scott
Shelby
Fayette
Oldham
Martin 33.4%
Harlan 32.5%
Breathitt 30.6%
Leslie 30.3%
Pike 30.2%
National average 10.0%
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2008‐12, Table C18120.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
15
7/23/2014
Which region has the highest rate of high school graduates?
 Lexington
 Owensboro ‐ Henderson
 Northern Kentucky

 Bowling Green ‐ Hopkinsville
Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma or Higher
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2008‐2012.
90%
87.4%
85%
86.4%
85.7%
84.1%
83.7%
83.2%
82.4%
80.5%
79.2%
80%
75%
72.2%
69.2%
70%
65%
60%
Which region has the highest rate of college graduates?
 Lexington

 Louisville
 Northern Kentucky
 Bowling Green ‐ Hopkinsville
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7/23/2014
Percent of Adults with a Bachelor Degree or Higher
30%
28.5%
26.6%
25.2%
25%
24.8%
21.0%
20%
18.4%
16.5%
14.7%
15%
13.1%
11.5%
11.2%
10%
5%
0%
Which Kentucky county has the largest land area?
 Jefferson
 Pike

 Ohio
 Fayette
1780 ‐ 1912
“The original motivation for having so many counties was to ensure that residents in the days of poor roads and horseback travel could make a round trip from their home to the county seat and back in a single day, as well as being able to travel from one county seat to the next in the same fashion”
– Counties, The Kentucky Encyclopedia, John E. Kleber, editor, The University Press of Kentucky, 1992.
Kentucky’s 120 counties, the most per square mile of any state
Horse, at 4 MPH, would take 16+ hours to get from Majestic to Pikeville and back
Pike is largest, 788 sq. mi.
Average county size is 330 square miles, so if county seat is central, a horse could make the round trip from border in 5‐6 hours.
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7/23/2014
How far could a Kentucky resident travel today, round trip, in 6 hours?
Well, three hours each way, averaging 45 MPH, would be 135 miles. For a round region, that would imply a government center serving 57,000 square miles, larger than Kentucky’s total of 40,000 square miles.
The largest economic region is Lexington, with 6,800 square miles and 26 counties. The longest travel time round trip, using a car at 45 MPH, would be 4 hours. So, transportation improvements have allowed access to a ‘local’ government center Does the constitution need to be amended to reflect modern technology? Does every to be the same now for a region containing county need a Judge‐Executive, County 26 counties as it was 200 years ago for one Clerk, County Treasurer, County Attorney, county.
Sheriff, jail, County Coroner, PVA office, one or two school systems, etc.?
Thank you!
Go to www.kychamber.com/news to download a copy of this powerpoint presentation.
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