Application of Satellite Imagery and Geographic Information System
to
Understanding the impact of Sea level rise on Delaware
17 May 2013
Edward Bamberger
FREC480: Geographic Information Systems in Natural Resource
Management
Department of Food and Resource Economics
University of Delaware
Background: The history of this problem is that we have discovered that our planted is going
through climate change and that this is affecting the global icecaps. With this climate change the whole
planet is warming and causing large scale ice cap melts which is causing the global problem of sea level
rise. The issue of sea level rise is not a very wide known problem but it is a problem that is going to
affect many millions of people over the next 100 years or so especially low lying places like the state of
Delaware. This problem is suitable for analysis with a GIS because we can use the GIS programs to create
a map depicting the general change to the possible coastline that will have changed from its previous
one 100 years prior in order to show those that are uneducated what kind of affect the sea level rise
has.
Literature Review: The definition of sea level rise is when global temperature averages rises due
to climate change which in turn increases the net ice melting all over the planet. Through images taken
via government satellite from 1979-1981 timeframe and then later taken from 2000-2003 there is
obvious evidence of ice cap melt in the Arctic Circle. Another evidence source that shows the general is
in Greenland where there are now natural occurring melt rivers scattered throughout the entirety of the
surface of the Greenland ice sheet. (Kempton) With this large amount of ice melting there is obviously a
negative result in the end and the place that is getting the worst of the effects is that of the Delaware
coastline. It is said that by the end of the century the sea level will rise be around .5 to 1.5 meters
approximately 0.07 inches per year for the eustatic rate of sea level rise. However in Delaware like what
was stated before they are getting the brunt of the negative effects of the sea level rise because their
amount of rise is annually 0.13 inches per year. The large difference between the general sea level rise
and Delaware’s sea level rise is due to the fact that the state of Delaware is slowly sinking into the
earth’s crust due to the vertical shifting of the earth’s tectonic plates. With this large amount of sea level
rise it will end up leading to around 8.6 percent to 11 percent of Delaware state land that will become
inundated. (Preparing for Tomorrow’s High Tide) Even with all of this negativity it doesn’t end there
because even with the low estimates for 2100 still are above stable scenarios. (Preparing for
Tomorrow’s High Tide) In Delaware the coastal areas are the main economic drivers of the state
historically and that does not sit well because we are not in a stable scenario which therefore could
potentially hurt the economy of Delaware in the short term.
Coastal jobs based in the Delaware part of the basin are around 12,319 jobs and of these jobs
the salary earned is around 214 million dollars. In addition these jobs lead to a 392 million dollar
increase in the GDP according to the National Oceanic Economic Program in 2009. (Kauffman) Due to all
these available jobs it leads to a large population in the area and it is said that the Delaware basin area
of Delaware houses roughly 74 percent of the state of Delaware’s population. In the ten years from
2000 to 2010 there has been a growth of 64,193 people which is around an 11 percent overall change.
This statistic does not bode well for the future of Delaware because if all the jobs are moving toward the
coast it will push more people to live in that area. If more people live in this area then there will be more
development and therefore more property damage to worry about as the storms get stronger. This
means more money out of people’s pockets because the government is not going to be able to keep up
with the continual increase in severity of water and wind related damage. With the people losing their
wages to damage control it will be harder to move away from the coast when the sea level rise starts
pushing up against the developed areas, basically making a never ending circle of worsening sea level
rise effects.
The thing is that sea level rise does not only effect people just through the progressive loss of
the land in Delaware there are other ways it effects the land such as increased severity of storms, higher
tides, loss of natural freshwater ecosystems or just alterations to said ecosystem, and salt infusion in the
potable water sources destroying our drinking water supply. You can already see the effects to the
storms through examples life Katrina the worst storm to hit our shores in a long time. “Sea level rise can
inundate and flood low lying areas, causing losses to tidal wetlands, habitat, and agricultural areas. Sea
level rise also can cause higher water tables and salt water intrusion, interfering with septic systems,
drinking water and irrigation water.”(“Sea Level Rise Adaptation”) in addition to all the problems caused
not just by the rising water levels the things that are being destroyed just by the rising sea level is
tremendous. “Rising sea level erodes beaches, drowns wetlands, submerges low-lying lands,
exacerbates coastal flooding,” (Hudgens, Titus) which will end up destroying habitats for animals
throughout the Delaware basin area. Also with the erosion of the beaches it will end up leading to an
increase in flood severity and occurrence. These vulnerabilities will also end up influencing farmland
with the loss of fresh water sources to water the crops and the continual loss of land. It was stated by
the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental control that based on their midpoint
estimates for sea level rise the percentage of Delaware’s prime farmland that will be lost is around 3
percent. They are also influencing many other things besides farmland, to include Ambulance and
paramedic stations which state wide will end up averaging around 7 percent loss but in Kent County the
loss will reach up to around 13 percent. This loss of paramedic and ambulance stations will alter the
ability for people to get the help they need because of the loss of the stations. However while those can
be rebuilt and probably would be rebuilt, those people that worked in those stations will be out of luck
until they do become rebuilt further effecting the community in that area and the economy that keeps
that community running.
Hypotheses: There are three primary problems that I am going to be looking for when using the
GIS program. One question is what our coastline is going to look like in the state of Delaware after the
100 years. In addition with this changing coastline who is going to be affected by the loss of land? As
well as of that land what are the land uses that will be lost due to them being either swallowed up by
the water or by the need to reconstruct habitats for the animals?
Data: For our image of what the coastline is going to look like we need to know just how high
the water is going to rise and what the elevation of the land in Delaware is going to be like after the 100
years. This way we can start planning on what we need to do in order to either relocate people or set up
structure that will block this large scale flood. Within those areas that could become swallowed up by
the sea what is the population like. We need this information in order to help move people out of their
residences slowly relocating them without over populating their new residences causing crippling
economic downturns. Finally to address the problem of land use that information is currently on the GIS
program. All of this information is either already on the GIS website or just figures that can be placed
into a Raster calculator. I will probably use polygon to depict the sea level rise and what land its will
consume.
Methods: Initially I will need to create a raster of the land that will be swallowed up by the
amount of sea level rise. I will do this by taking the anticipated level of sea level rise and use it to
compare it to the current land elevation. I will make an if statement that will state that for all land that is
below the elevation of the anticipated sea level rise in Delaware make it true. I will then turn it into a
polygon from the raster so that I can select all the large mass of land that touches the ocean because
there will be some places in Delaware that will be below the elevation of the sea level rise but won’t be
affected by it because they have no connection to the sea or there is something like a mountain in the
way. I will then set my GIS program to run programs based just on this layer so that it will be easier to
see just what is being lost. Based off of this polygon I will run a population chart from the information
that is currently on the GIS software based off of the 2010 population just to get a rough estimate of
exactly how many people are going to be affected by this catastrophy. I will also then run the land use
layer that we have used in a previous lab based off of the affected area polygon. With these landuse
figured I will run an area tool on each landuse in order to find the amount of said land that is being used
for a specific task. I will then record these results for land use and population. Once I have recorded this
information I will then allow these programs to run based off of the entirety of Delaware, while finding
total population and the area of land being used for each landuse description, and record said
information as well. I will then make a table depicting all the information found and then comparing it to
show just how much the sea level rise will affect Delaware as a whole. Strength wise I will be able to
have visible representations of the areas being affected as well as a visual of what that land that is going
to be lost is used for. This will help those visual learners to fully grasp the gravity of what may happen if
nothing is done. I don’t really see any visible weaknesses besides the obvious ever changing population
in areas and what our land is being used for changing occasionally. This won’t allow me to give an exact
representation of what the state of Delaware will actually face.
Anticipated Results: My anticipated results are that a large portion of the population of
Delaware will be displaced by this disaster. In addition a lot of animal preserves and habitats will be lost.
Worst of all for the economy of Delaware a lot of the revenue stream comes from the beaches which
will all be lost. As stated in my literature review around 10 % of Delaware will be lost if nothing is done.
Policy Applications: Factually only about one third of the residents in Delaware said they were
concerned with climate change and sea level rise based on a survey conducted by Responsive
management a subsection of the Department of Natural Resources for Delaware. However many of the
residents are concerned with other environmental concerns so it may just be that they have been
exposed to the other concerns information more or have not been exposed to the right information for
sea level rise. Even funnier is the fact that the environmental concerns that the people of Delaware are
concerned with are essentially impacted by the Climate change and sea level rise like storm severity
increase. These citizens need to be educated on the causes and effects of sea level rise. In addition they
should also be told just who is believed to be affected by this environmental concern. It is a sad statistic
that only 70 percent of the Delaware population believes that climate change is happening and that is
affecting sea level rise. Within the same survey done by the Responsive management team of the
Delaware department of Natural resources 70 percent believe that they know moderate to great deals
of information about climate change while only 40 percent of the same people say they know moderate
amount of information about sea level rise.(Delaware’s residents opinions) With my research on this
topic and the use of my maps it will allow the government to better inform those who are going to be
affected so that they may prepare. In addition it will show just which local governments are going to
have to create a solution with the now educated public on how to address this catastrophe.
Budget:
Salaries (researchers): 2 researchers at 40 dollars an hour working 40 hour weeks = 3200
Salaries (speakers): 3 speakers at 30 dollars an hour working 40 hour weeks= 3600
Travel expenses: roughly 400 dollars per speaker and 200 per researcher = 1600
Hardware: 1500 for the GIS software + 150 for GPS receiver + 650 for a 300ft depth reader +1000 for
motor boat
Indirect overhead: total direct cost * .40
Weekly Budget
Salaries
(researchers)
Salaries (speakers)
travel expenses
Hardware
Total Direct cost
Indirect overhead
Total Budget
3200
3600
1600
3300
11700
4680
16380
Timeframe: purchasing the materials- 5 man hours
Research for a year- 4176 man hours
Speaking to public for awareness (1 year) - 6264 hours
Creating maps and tables in GIS after research – 3 man hours
In total to research the topic for a year and then make GIS maps to then educate people on the matter
for another year it would take roughly 10500 man hours
Work Cited:
"Climate Change Delaware Sea Level Rise." Climate Change Delaware Sea Level Rise. State of Delaware
Government, n.d. Web. 06 Feb. 2013.
"Coastal Areas Impacts & Adaptation." EPA. Environmental Protection Agency, 14 June 2012. Web. 17
Feb. 2013. <http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html>.
Responsive Management, comp. "DELAWARE RESIDENTS’ OPINIONS ON." (2010): n. pag. Delaware
Department of Natural Resources and Emvironmental Control. Web. 24 Apr. 2013.
"Delaware Coastal Programs." Sea Level Rise Adaptation. N.p., n.d. Web. 13 Feb. 2013.
<http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Pages/SeaLevelRiseAdaptation.aspx>.
"Delaware Coastal Programs." Town of Bowers Beach Action Plan. N.p., n.d. Web. 13 Feb. 2013.
<http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Pages/TownofBowersBeach.aspx>.
”Environmental Research Letters." State and Local Governments Plan for Development of Most Land
Vulnerable to Rising Sea Level along the US Atlantic Coast. N.p., 27 Oct. 2009. Web. 13 Feb. 2013.
<http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/4/4/044008/>.
"Governments Plan for Development of Land Vulnerable to Rising Sea Level: Delaware." Adapting to
Global Warming. Ed. James G. Titus and Daniel Hudgens. N.p., n.d. Web. 13 Feb. 2013.
<http://risingsea.net/ERL/DE.html>.
Hurdle, John. "Rising Threat: Rising Seas Threaten Delaware Coast, Test Policymakers." RSS 20.
Delaware's NPR News Station, n.d. Web. 06 Feb. 2013.
Kauffman, Gerald J. "Socioeconomic Value of the Delaware River Basin." N.p., 11 Oct. 2011. Web. 11
Feb. 2013.
Kempton, Willett, and Amardeep Dhanju. "Sea Level Rise and Its Effect on Delaware." Sea Level Rise and
Its Effect on Delaware. N.p., 03 Feb. 2007. Web. 06 Feb. 2013.
Montgomery, Jeff. "Obama to Press Ahead in Addressing Climate Change." The News Journal.
N.p., 12 Feb. 2013. Web. 17 Feb. 2013.
<http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2013302130035>.
"Municipal Comprehensive Plans (Town of Bowers)." Preliminary Land USe. Delaware State Planning
Coordination, n.d. Web. 10 Feb. 2013.
"PREPARING FOR SEA LEVEL RISE." Sea Level Rise Initiative Project Compendium (2011): n. pag. Delaware
Coastal Programs. Web. 24 Apr. 2013.
<http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Documents/SeaLevelRise/SLRCompSept2011.pdf>.
"Sea Level Rise Inundation Maps." Sea Level Rise Inundation Maps. Delaware Coastal Programs, n.d.
Web. 06 Feb. 2013.
United States of America. Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control. Delaware
Coastal Programs. Development of a Sea Level Rise. By David B. Carter. Delaware Coastal Programs, 10
Oct. 2007. Web. 17 Feb. 2013.
<http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Documents/SeaLevelRise/Delaware Sea Level Rise Adaptation
Plan Proposal.pdf>.