LinkingtheVirginiaSOLAssessmentstoNWEA MAPTests March2016 Introduction Northwest Evaluation Association™ (NWEA™) is committed to providing partners with useful tools to help make inferences from the Measures of Academic Progress® (MAP®) interim assessment scores. One important tool is the concordance table between MAP and state summative assessments. Concordance tables have been used for decades to relate scores on different tests measuring similar but distinct constructs. These tables, typically derived from statisticallinkingprocedures,provideadirectlinkbetweenscoresondifferenttestsandserve various purposes. Aside from describing how a score on one test relates to performance on anothertest,theycanalsobeusedtoidentifybenchmarkscoresononetestcorrespondingto performancecategoriesonanothertest,ortomaintaincontinuityofscoresonatestafterthe test is redesigned or changed. Concordance tables are helpful for educators, parents, administrators,researchers,andpolicymakerstoevaluateandformulateacademicstandingand growth. Recently,NWEAcompletedaconcordancestudytoconnectthescalesoftheVirginiaStandards of Learning (SOL) reading and math tests with those of the MAP Reading and MAP for Mathematicsassessments.Inthisreport,wepresentthe3rdthrough8thgradecutscoresonMAP readingandmathematicsscalesthatcorrespondtothebenchmarksontheSOLreadingandmath tests.InformationabouttheconsistencyrateofclassificationbasedontheestimatedMAPcut scoresisalsoprovided,alongwithaseriesoftablesthatpredicttheprobabilityofreceivinga Level2(i.e.,“Proficient”)orhigherperformancedesignationontheSOLassessments,basedon theobservedMAPscorestakenduringthesameschoolyear.Adetaileddescriptionofthedata andanalysismethodusedinthisstudyisprovidedintheAppendix. OverviewofAssessments SOLassessmentsincludeaseriesofachievementtestsalignedtotheVirginiaCommonCoreState Standards in English reading, mathematics, science and history/social science. Starting from spring2016,SOLtestswillbedeliveredinaComputerAdaptiveTesting(CAT)format.Foreach gradeandsubject,therearetwocutscoresthatdistinguishbetweenperformancelevels:Level 1:Basic,Level2:ProficientandLevel3:Advanced.TheLevel2cutscoredemarkstheminimum levelofperformanceconsideredtobe“Proficient”foraccountabilitypurposes. MAPtestsareinterimassessmentsthatareadministeredintheformofaCAT.MAPtestsare constructedtomeasurestudentachievementfromGradesKto12inmath,reading,language usage,andscienceandalignedtotheVirginiaCommonCoreStateStandards.UnlikeSOL,MAP assessmentsareverticallyscaledacrossgrades,afeaturethatsupportsdirectmeasurementof Page2of23 academicgrowthandchange.MAPscoresarereportedonaRaschUnit(RIT)scalewitharange from100to350.EachsubjecthasitsownRITscale. ToaidinterpretationofMAPscores,NWEAperiodicallyconductsnormingstudiesofstudentand schoolperformanceonMAP.Forexample,the2015RITScalenormingstudy(Thum&Hauser, 2015)employedmulti-levelgrowthmodelsonnearly500,000longitudinaltestscoresfromover 100,000studentsthatwereweightedtocreatelarge,nationallyrepresentativenormsformath, reading,languageusage,andgeneralscience. EstimatedMAPCutScoresAssociatedwithSOLReadinessLevels Tables1to4reporttheSOLscaledscoresassociatedwitheachofthethreeperformancelevels, aswellastheestimatedscorerangeontheMAPtestsassociatedwitheachSOLperformance level.Specifically,Tables1and2applytoMAPscoresobtainedduringthespringtestingseason forreadingandmath,respectively.Tables3and4applytoMAPteststakeninapriortesting season(fallorwinter)forreadingandmath,respectively.Thetablesalsoreportthepercentile rank(basedontheNWEA2015MAPNorms)associatedwitheachestimatedMAPcutscore.The MAPcutscorescanbeusedtopredictstudents’mostprobableSOLperformancelevel,basedon theirobservedMAPscores.Forexample,a6thgradestudentwhoobtainedaMAPmathscoreof 240inthespringtestingseasonislikelytobeattheveryhighendofLevel2(Proficient)onthe SOL taken during that same testing season (see Table 2). Similarly, a 3rd grade student who obtainedaMAPreadingscoreof210inthefalltestingseasonislikelytobeatLevel3(Advanced) ontheSOLtakeninthespringof3rdgrade(seeTable3). Page3of23 TABLE1.CONCORDANCEOFPERFORMANCELEVELSCORERANGESBETWEENSOL ANDMAPREADING(WHENMAPISTAKENINSPRING) SOL Grade Level1 Basic Level2 Proficient Level3 Advanced 3 0-399 400-499 500-600 4 0-399 400-499 500-600 5 0-399 400-499 500-600 6 0-399 400-499 500-600 7 0-399 400-499 500-600 8 0-399 400-499 500-600 MAP Level1 Basic Level2 Proficient Level3 Advanced Grade RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile 3 100-198 1-49 199-214 50-85 215-350 86-99 4 100-204 1-46 205-220 47-83 221-350 84-99 5 100-209 1-43 210-226 44-84 227-350 85-99 6 100-213 1-43 214-231 44-85 232-350 86-99 7 100-216 1-45 217-235 46-87 236-350 88-99 8 100-220 1-51 221-242 52-92 243-350 93-99 Notes.1.%ile=percentile. 2.Boldednumbersindicatethecutscoresconsideredtobeatleast“proficient”foraccountabilitypurposes. Page4of23 TABLE2.CONCORDANCEOFPERFORMANCELEVELSCORERANGESBETWEENSOL ANDMAPMATH(WHENMAPISTAKENINSPRING) SOL Grade Level1 Basic Level2 Proficient Level3 Advanced 3 0-399 400-499 500-600 4 0-399 400-499 500-600 5 0-399 400-499 500-600 6 0-399 400-499 500-600 7 0-399 400-499 500-600 8 0-399 400-499 500-600 MAP Level1 Basic Level2 Proficient Level3 Advanced Grade RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile 3 100-202 1-47 203-216 48-82 217-350 83-99 4 100-207 1-34 208-223 35-74 224-350 75-99 5 100-217 1-40 218-233 41-77 234-350 78-99 6 100-218 1-34 219-245 35-88 246-350 89-99 7 100-228 1-49 229-250 50-89 251-350 90-99 8 100-228 1-44 229-255 45-90* 256-350 90*-99 Notes.1.%ile=percentile. 2.Boldednumbersindicatethecutscoresconsideredtobeatleast“proficient”foraccountabilitypurposes. 3.*reflectsoccasionaldeparturefromone-to-onecorrespondencebetweenRITsandpercentilesduetothelarger rangeoftheRITscalerelativetothepercentilescale. Page5of23 TABLE3.CONCORDANCEOFPERFORMANCELEVELSCORERANGESBETWEENSOL ANDMAPREADING(WHENMAPISTAKENINFALLORWINTERPRIORTOSPRING SOLTESTS) Grade Level1 Basic SOL Level2 Proficient 3 0-399 400-499 500-600 4 0-399 400-499 500-600 5 0-399 400-499 500-600 6 0-399 400-499 500-600 7 0-399 400-499 500-600 8 0-399 400-499 500-600 Level1 Basic MAPFALL Level2 Proficient RIT %ile Level3 Advanced RIT %ile Grade Level3 Advanced RIT %ile 3 100-188 1-50 189-207 51-88 208-350 89-99 4 100-196 1-45 197-215 46-86 216-350 87-99 5 100-203 1-44 204-222 45-86 223-350 87-99 6 100-208 1-43 209-229 44-89 230-350 90-99 7 100-212 1-44 213-233 45-89 234-350 90-99 * 241-350 93*-99 8 100-217 1-50 RIT %ile 218-240 51-93 MAPWINTER Level2 Proficient RIT %ile 3 100-195 1-49 196-212 50-86 213-350 87-99 4 100-202 1-47 203-219 48-85 220-350 86-99 5 100-207 1-43 208-225 44-85 226-350 86-99 6 100-211 1-42 212-230 43-86 231-350 87-99 7 100-215 1-46 216-234 47-87 235-350 88-99 8 100-219 1-51 220-241 52-92 242-350 93-99 Level1 Basic Grade Level3 Advanced RIT %ile Notes.1.%ile=percentile. 2.Boldednumbersindicatethecutscoresconsideredtobeatleast“proficient”foraccountabilitypurposes. 3.*reflectsoccasionaldeparturefromone-to-onecorrespondencebetweenRITsandpercentilesduetothelargerrangeof theRITscalerelativetothepercentilescale. Page6of23 TABLE4.CONCORDANCEOFPERFORMANCELEVELSCORERANGESBETWEENSOL ANDMAPMATH(WHENMAPISTAKENINFALLORWINTERPRIORTOSPRINGSOL TESTS) Grade Level1 Basic SOL Level2 Proficient 3 0-399 400-499 500-600 4 0-399 400-499 500-600 5 0-399 400-499 500-600 6 0-399 400-499 500-600 7 0-399 400-499 500-600 8 0-399 400-499 500-600 Level1 Basic MAPFALL Level2 Proficient RIT %ile Level3 Advanced RIT %ile Grade Level3 Advanced RIT %ile 3 100-189 1-47 190-204 48-85 205-350 86-99 4 100-195 1-31 196-212 32-77 213-350 78-99 5 100-207 1-39 208-223 40-79 224-350 80-99 6 100-210 1-32 211-238 33-91 239-350 92-99 7 100-222 1-49 223-244 50-90 245-350 91-99 * 252-350 92*-99 8 100-223 1-43 RIT %ile 224-251 44-92 MAPWINTER Level2 Proficient RIT %ile 3 100-197 1-47 198-211 48-84 212-350 85-99 4 100-202 1-33 203-218 34-75 219-350 76-99 5 100-213 1-40 214-229 41-78 230-350 79-99 6 100-215 1-34 216-242 35-89 243-350 90-99 7 100-226 1-50 227-248 51-90 249-350 91-99 8 100-226 1-44 227-253 45-90 254-350 91-99 Level1 Basic Grade Level3 Advanced RIT %ile Notes.1.%ile=percentile. 2.Boldednumbersindicatethecutscoresconsideredtobeatleast“proficient”foraccountabilitypurposes. 3.*reflectsoccasionaldeparturefromone-to-onecorrespondencebetweenRITsandpercentilesduetothelargerrangeof theRITscalerelativetothepercentilescale. Page7of23 ConsistencyRateofClassification Consistencyrateofclassification(Pommerich,Hanson,Harris,&Sconing,2004),expressedinthe formofaratebetween0and1,providesameanstomeasurethedeparturefromequityfor concordances(Hansonetal.,2001).Thisindexcanalsobeusedasanindicatorforthepredictive validityoftheMAPtests,i.e.,howaccuratelytheMAPscorescanpredictastudent’sproficiency statusintheSOLtest.Foreachpairofconcordantscores,aclassificationisconsideredconsistent iftheexamineeisclassifiedintothesameperformancecategoryregardlessofthetestusedfor making a decision. Consistency rate provided in this report can be calculated as, for the “proficient”performancecategoryconcordantscores,thepercentageofexamineeswhoscore atorabovebothconcordantscoresplusthepercentageofexamineeswhoscorebelowboth concordantscoresoneachtest.Higherconsistencyrateindicatesstrongercongruencebetween SOLandMAPscores.TheresultsinTable5demonstratethatonaverageMAPreadingscorescan consistentlyclassifystudents’proficiency(Level2orhigher)statusonSOLreadingtest84%of thetimeandMAPmathscorescanconsistentlyclassifystudentsonSOLmathtest84%ofthe time. Those numbers are high suggesting that both MAP reading and math tests are great predictorsofthestudents’proficiencystatusontheSOLtests. TABLE5.CONSISTENCYRATEOFCLASSIFICATIONFORMAPANDSOLLEVEL2 EQUIPERCENTILECONCORDANCES Reading Grade 3 4 5 6 7 8 Math False False Consistency Consistency Rate Rate Positives Negatives Positives Negatives 0.84 0.08 0.08 0.83 0.09 0.08 0.83 0.11 0.06 0.86 0.07 0.07 0.83 0.08 0.09 0.84 0.08 0.08 0.82 0.10 0.08 0.86 0.07 0.07 0.84 0.08 0.08 0.82 0.09 0.09 0.85 0.10 0.05 0.81 0.09 0.10 ProficiencyProjection Proficiencyprojectiontellshowlikelyastudentisclassifiedas“proficient”onSOLtestsbasedon his/herobservedMAPscores.Theconditionalgrowthnormsprovidedinthe2015MAPNorms were used to calculate this information (Thum & Hauser, 2015). The results of proficiency Page8of23 projectionandcorrespondingprobabilityofachieving“proficient”ontheSOLtestsarepresented inTables6to8.ThesetablesestimatetheprobabilityofscoringatLevel2oraboveonSOLinthe springandthepriorfallorwintertestingseason.Forexample,ifa3rdgradestudentobtaineda MAPmathscoreof195inthefall,theprobabilityofobtainingaLevel2orhigherSOLscorein the spring of 3rd grade is 78%. Table 6 presents the estimated probability of meeting Level 2 benchmark when MAP is taken in the spring, whereas Tables 7 and 8 present the estimated probabilityofmeetingLevel2benchmarkwhenMAPistakeninthefallorwinterpriortotaking theSOLtests. Page9of23 TABLE6.PROFICIENCYPROJECTIONANDPROBABILITYFORPASSINGSOLLEVEL2 (PROFICIENT)WHENMAPISTAKENINTHESPRING Reading Grade Start %ile 3 4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Math ProjectedProficiency RIT Spring CutScore Level2 Prob. 174 179 183 186 188 191 193 195 197 199 201 202 204 207 209 211 214 218 223 181 187 190 193 196 198 200 202 204 206 208 210 212 214 216 218 221 225 230 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 No No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.27 0.50 0.73 0.83 0.94 0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 0.06 0.17 0.38 0.62 0.83 0.94 0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 Start %ile RIT Spring 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 181 186 189 192 194 196 198 200 202 203 205 207 209 211 213 215 218 221 226 189 194 198 201 203 206 208 210 212 213 215 217 219 221 224 226 229 233 238 ProjectedProficiency CutScore Level2 Prob. 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 No No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.37 0.50 0.75 0.92 0.98 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 0.04 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.92 0.96 0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 Page10of23 TABLE6.(CONTINUED) Reading Grade 5 6 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Math ProjectedProficiency RIT Spring CutScore Level2 Prob. 188 193 197 199 202 204 206 208 210 212 214 216 217 220 222 224 227 231 236 192 197 201 203 206 208 210 212 214 216 218 219 221 223 226 228 231 235 240 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.27 0.50 0.73 0.89 0.97 0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.27 0.50 0.73 0.89 0.94 0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 ProjectedProficiency RIT Spring CutScore Level2 Prob. 195 201 205 208 210 213 215 217 219 221 223 225 228 230 232 235 238 242 248 198 204 208 211 214 217 219 221 223 225 227 230 232 234 237 239 243 247 253 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 219 No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.04 0.15 0.37 0.63 0.85 0.96 0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.04 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.92 0.98 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 Page11of23 TABLE6.(CONTINUED) Reading Grade 7 8 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 ProjectedProficiency RIT Spring CutScore Level2 Prob. 193 199 202 205 208 210 212 214 216 218 220 222 224 226 228 231 234 238 243 194 200 204 207 209 212 214 216 218 220 222 224 226 228 231 233 236 240 246 Note.%ile=percentile Math 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 No No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 0.06 0.17 0.38 0.62 0.83 0.94 0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 0.06 0.17 0.38 0.62 0.83 0.94 0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 ProjectedProficiency RIT Spring CutScore Level2 Prob. 199 206 210 214 217 219 222 224 226 229 231 233 235 238 241 244 247 251 258 199 206 211 215 218 221 224 226 229 231 233 236 238 241 244 247 251 255 262 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 No No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.50 0.75 0.92 0.98 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.04 0.15 0.50 0.75 0.92 0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 >0.99 Page12of23 ABLE7.PROFICIENCYPROJECTIONANDPROBABILITYFORPASSINGSOLREADING LEVEL2(PROFICIENT)WHENMAPISTAKENINTHEFALLORWINTERPRIORTO SPRINGSOLTESTS Grade 3 4 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT Fall 162 168 172 175 178 180 182 184 186 188 190 192 194 197 199 202 205 209 214 173 178 182 185 188 190 192 194 196 198 200 202 204 206 209 211 214 218 224 ProjectedProficiency CutScore Level2 Prob. 199 No <0.01 199 No 0.01 199 No 0.03 199 No 0.05 199 No 0.10 199 No 0.16 199 No 0.20 199 No 0.29 199 No 0.39 199 No 0.44 199 Yes 0.56 199 Yes 0.66 199 Yes 0.71 199 Yes 0.84 199 Yes 0.90 199 Yes 0.94 199 Yes 0.97 199 Yes 0.99 199 Yes >0.99 205 No <0.01 205 No 0.01 205 No 0.03 205 No 0.07 205 No 0.12 205 No 0.18 205 No 0.27 205 No 0.33 205 No 0.44 205 Yes 0.56 205 Yes 0.62 205 Yes 0.73 205 Yes 0.82 205 Yes 0.88 205 Yes 0.93 205 Yes 0.96 205 Yes 0.98 205 Yes >0.99 205 Yes >0.99 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT ProjectedProficiency Winter CutScore Level2 Prob. 171 199 No <0.01 176 199 No <0.01 180 199 No <0.01 183 199 No 0.01 185 199 No 0.03 188 199 No 0.09 190 199 No 0.13 192 199 No 0.22 194 199 No 0.35 196 199 Yes 0.50 198 199 Yes 0.65 199 199 Yes 0.72 201 199 Yes 0.83 204 199 Yes 0.94 206 199 Yes 0.96 208 199 Yes 0.98 211 199 Yes >0.99 215 199 Yes >0.99 221 199 Yes >0.99 179 205 No <0.01 184 205 No <0.01 188 205 No <0.01 191 205 No 0.02 194 205 No 0.06 196 205 No 0.12 198 205 No 0.22 200 205 No 0.35 202 205 No 0.42 204 205 Yes 0.58 205 205 Yes 0.65 207 205 Yes 0.78 209 205 Yes 0.88 211 205 Yes 0.94 214 205 Yes 0.98 216 205 Yes 0.99 219 205 Yes >0.99 223 205 Yes >0.99 228 205 Yes >0.99 Page13of23 TABLE7.(CONTINUED) Grade 5 6 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT Fall 181 186 190 193 195 198 200 202 204 206 208 210 212 214 216 218 221 225 231 186 192 196 198 201 203 205 207 209 211 213 215 217 219 221 224 226 230 236 ProjectedProficiency Cut-Score Level2 Prob. 210 No <0.01 210 No 0.01 210 No 0.04 210 No 0.09 210 No 0.15 210 No 0.23 210 No 0.33 210 No 0.44 210 Yes 0.50 210 Yes 0.62 210 Yes 0.72 210 Yes 0.81 210 Yes 0.85 210 Yes 0.91 210 Yes 0.95 210 Yes 0.96 210 Yes 0.99 210 Yes >0.99 210 Yes >0.99 214 No <0.01 214 No 0.01 214 No 0.06 214 No 0.07 214 No 0.16 214 No 0.23 214 No 0.33 214 No 0.39 214 Yes 0.50 214 Yes 0.61 214 Yes 0.72 214 Yes 0.77 214 Yes 0.84 214 Yes 0.90 214 Yes 0.93 214 Yes 0.97 214 Yes 0.99 214 Yes >0.99 214 Yes >0.99 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT ProjectedProficiency Winter Cut-Score Level2 Prob. 186 210 No <0.01 191 210 No <0.01 195 210 No 0.01 197 210 No 0.03 200 210 No 0.09 202 210 No 0.12 204 210 No 0.22 206 210 No 0.35 208 210 Yes 0.50 210 210 Yes 0.65 212 210 Yes 0.78 214 210 Yes 0.88 215 210 Yes 0.91 218 210 Yes 0.97 220 210 Yes 0.98 222 210 Yes 0.99 225 210 Yes >0.99 229 210 Yes >0.99 234 210 Yes >0.99 190 214 No <0.01 196 214 No <0.01 199 214 No 0.01 202 214 No 0.03 204 214 No 0.06 207 214 No 0.17 209 214 No 0.28 211 214 No 0.42 212 214 Yes 0.50 214 214 Yes 0.65 216 214 Yes 0.72 218 214 Yes 0.83 220 214 Yes 0.91 222 214 Yes 0.96 224 214 Yes 0.98 226 214 Yes 0.99 229 214 Yes >0.99 233 214 Yes >0.99 238 214 Yes >0.99 Page14of23 TABLE7.(CONTINUED) Grade 7 8 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT Fall 189 195 199 202 204 206 209 211 213 214 216 218 220 222 225 227 230 234 240 191 197 201 204 207 209 211 213 215 217 219 221 223 225 228 230 234 237 243 ProjectedProficiency Cut-Score Level2 Prob. 217 No <0.01 217 No 0.01 217 No 0.04 217 No 0.07 217 No 0.12 217 No 0.19 217 No 0.28 217 No 0.39 217 Yes 0.50 217 Yes 0.56 217 Yes 0.61 217 Yes 0.72 217 Yes 0.81 217 Yes 0.88 217 Yes 0.93 217 Yes 0.96 217 Yes 0.99 217 Yes >0.99 217 Yes >0.99 221 No <0.01 221 No 0.01 221 No 0.03 221 No 0.06 221 No 0.10 221 No 0.16 221 No 0.22 221 No 0.26 221 No 0.35 221 No 0.45 221 Yes 0.55 221 Yes 0.60 221 Yes 0.69 221 Yes 0.78 221 Yes 0.84 221 Yes 0.90 221 Yes 0.96 221 Yes 0.98 221 Yes >0.99 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT ProjectedProficiency Winter Cut-Score Level2 Prob. 192 217 No <0.01 198 217 No <0.01 201 217 No <0.01 204 217 No 0.02 207 217 No 0.06 209 217 No 0.12 211 217 No 0.22 213 217 No 0.28 215 217 No 0.42 217 217 Yes 0.58 219 217 Yes 0.72 221 217 Yes 0.83 223 217 Yes 0.91 225 217 Yes 0.96 227 217 Yes 0.98 230 217 Yes >0.99 232 217 Yes >0.99 236 217 Yes >0.99 242 217 Yes >0.99 194 221 No <0.01 199 221 No <0.01 203 221 No <0.01 206 221 No 0.01 209 221 No 0.02 211 221 No 0.05 213 221 No 0.10 215 221 No 0.18 217 221 No 0.29 219 221 No 0.43 221 221 Yes 0.57 223 221 Yes 0.71 225 221 Yes 0.82 227 221 Yes 0.90 229 221 Yes 0.95 232 221 Yes 0.98 235 221 Yes 0.99 239 221 Yes >0.99 244 221 Yes >0.99 Note.%ile=percentile Page15of23 TABLE8.PROFICIENCYPROJECTIONANDPROBABILITYFORPASSINGSOLMATH LEVEL2(PROFICIENT)WHENMAPISTAKENINTHEFALLORWINTERPRIORTO SPRINGSOLTESTS Grade 3 4 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT Fall 169 174 177 179 182 184 185 187 189 190 192 194 195 197 199 201 204 207 212 179 184 188 190 193 195 197 198 200 202 204 205 207 209 211 214 216 220 225 ProjectedProficiency CutScore Level2 Prob. 203 No <0.01 203 No 0.01 203 No 0.03 203 No 0.06 203 No 0.14 203 No 0.17 203 No 0.22 203 No 0.32 203 No 0.44 203 Yes 0.50 203 Yes 0.62 203 Yes 0.73 203 Yes 0.78 203 Yes 0.86 203 Yes 0.89 203 Yes 0.94 203 Yes 0.98 203 Yes 0.99 203 Yes >0.99 208 No <0.01 208 No 0.03 208 No 0.11 208 No 0.17 208 No 0.32 208 No 0.44 208 Yes 0.56 208 Yes 0.62 208 Yes 0.73 208 Yes 0.83 208 Yes 0.89 208 Yes 0.89 208 Yes 0.94 208 Yes 0.97 208 Yes 0.99 208 Yes >0.99 208 Yes >0.99 208 Yes >0.99 208 Yes >0.99 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT ProjectedProficiency Winter CutScore Level2 Prob. 176 203 No <0.01 181 203 No <0.01 184 203 No <0.01 187 203 No 0.01 189 203 No 0.03 191 203 No 0.07 193 203 No 0.14 195 203 No 0.26 197 203 No 0.42 198 203 Yes 0.50 200 203 Yes 0.66 202 203 Yes 0.80 203 203 Yes 0.86 205 203 Yes 0.93 207 203 Yes 0.97 209 203 Yes 0.99 212 203 Yes >0.99 215 203 Yes >0.99 220 203 Yes >0.99 185 208 No <0.01 190 208 No <0.01 194 208 No 0.03 197 208 No 0.10 199 208 No 0.20 201 208 No 0.34 203 208 Yes 0.50 205 208 Yes 0.66 207 208 Yes 0.80 209 208 Yes 0.90 211 208 Yes 0.95 212 208 Yes 0.97 214 208 Yes 0.99 216 208 Yes >0.99 218 208 Yes >0.99 221 208 Yes >0.99 223 208 Yes >0.99 227 208 Yes >0.99 232 208 Yes >0.99 Page16of23 TABLE8.(CONTINUED) Grade 5 6 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT Fall 187 193 196 199 202 204 206 208 210 211 213 215 217 219 221 224 227 230 236 192 198 202 205 207 209 212 214 216 218 220 222 224 226 228 231 234 238 243 ProjectedProficiency Cut-Score Level2 Prob. 218 No <0.01 218 No 0.01 218 No 0.04 218 No 0.09 218 No 0.19 218 No 0.28 218 No 0.38 218 Yes 0.50 218 Yes 0.62 218 Yes 0.67 218 Yes 0.77 218 Yes 0.85 218 Yes 0.91 218 Yes 0.95 218 Yes 0.97 218 Yes 0.99 218 Yes >0.99 218 Yes >0.99 218 Yes >0.99 219 No <0.01 219 No 0.03 219 No 0.09 219 No 0.19 219 No 0.28 219 No 0.38 219 Yes 0.56 219 Yes 0.67 219 Yes 0.77 219 Yes 0.85 219 Yes 0.91 219 Yes 0.95 219 Yes 0.97 219 Yes 0.99 219 Yes 0.99 219 Yes >0.99 219 Yes >0.99 219 Yes >0.99 219 Yes >0.99 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT ProjectedProficiency Winter Cut-Score Level2 Prob. 192 218 No <0.01 198 218 No <0.01 201 218 No <0.01 204 218 No 0.02 207 218 No 0.07 209 218 No 0.15 211 218 No 0.27 213 218 No 0.42 215 218 Yes 0.58 217 218 Yes 0.73 219 218 Yes 0.85 221 218 Yes 0.93 223 218 Yes 0.97 225 218 Yes 0.99 228 218 Yes >0.99 230 218 Yes >0.99 233 218 Yes >0.99 237 218 Yes >0.99 242 218 Yes >0.99 196 219 No <0.01 202 219 No <0.01 205 219 No 0.01 209 219 No 0.07 211 219 No 0.15 214 219 No 0.34 216 219 Yes 0.50 218 219 Yes 0.66 220 219 Yes 0.80 222 219 Yes 0.89 224 219 Yes 0.95 226 219 Yes 0.98 228 219 Yes 0.99 230 219 Yes >0.99 233 219 Yes >0.99 236 219 Yes >0.99 239 219 Yes >0.99 243 219 Yes >0.99 248 219 Yes >0.99 Page17of23 TABLE8.(CONTINUED) Grade 7 8 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT Fall 195 201 205 209 211 214 216 218 221 223 225 227 229 231 234 237 240 244 250 197 203 208 211 214 217 219 222 224 226 229 231 233 236 238 241 245 249 256 ProjectedProficiency Cut-Score Level2 Prob. 229 No <0.01 229 No <0.01 229 No <0.01 229 No 0.02 229 No 0.03 229 No 0.08 229 No 0.14 229 No 0.22 229 No 0.38 229 Yes 0.50 229 Yes 0.62 229 Yes 0.73 229 Yes 0.82 229 Yes 0.89 229 Yes 0.95 229 Yes 0.98 229 Yes >0.99 229 Yes >0.99 229 Yes >0.99 229 No <0.01 229 No <0.01 229 No 0.02 229 No 0.04 229 No 0.10 229 No 0.18 229 No 0.26 229 No 0.40 229 Yes 0.50 229 Yes 0.60 229 Yes 0.74 229 Yes 0.82 229 Yes 0.88 229 Yes 0.92 229 Yes 0.96 229 Yes 0.98 229 Yes >0.99 229 Yes >0.99 229 Yes >0.99 Start %ile 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 RIT ProjectedProficiency Winter Cut-Score Level2 Prob. 198 229 No <0.01 204 229 No <0.01 208 229 No <0.01 212 229 No <0.01 215 229 No 0.01 217 229 No 0.02 220 229 No 0.07 222 229 No 0.15 224 229 No 0.26 226 229 No 0.42 228 229 Yes 0.58 230 229 Yes 0.74 233 229 Yes 0.90 235 229 Yes 0.95 238 229 Yes 0.99 240 229 Yes >0.99 244 229 Yes >0.99 248 229 Yes >0.99 254 229 Yes >0.99 199 229 No <0.01 206 229 No <0.01 210 229 No <0.01 214 229 No <0.01 217 229 No 0.02 220 229 No 0.08 222 229 No 0.16 225 229 No 0.35 227 229 Yes 0.50 229 229 Yes 0.65 231 229 Yes 0.79 234 229 Yes 0.92 236 229 Yes 0.96 239 229 Yes 0.99 241 229 Yes >0.99 245 229 Yes >0.99 248 229 Yes >0.99 253 229 Yes >0.99 259 229 Yes >0.99 Note.%ile=percentile Page18of23 SummaryandDiscussion ThisstudyproducedasetofcutscoresonMAPreadingandmathtestsforGrades3to8that correspond to each SOL performance level. By using matched score data from a sample of studentsfromVirginia,thestudydemonstratesthatMAPscorescanaccuratelypredictwhether astudentcouldbeproficientoraboveonthebasisofhis/herMAPscores.Thisstudyalsoused the 2015 NWEA norming study results to project a student’s probability to meet proficiency basedonthatstudent’spriorMAPscoresinfallandwinter.Theseresultswillhelpeducators predictstudentperformanceinSOLtestsasearlyaspossibleandidentifythosestudentswhoare atriskoffailingtomeetrequiredstandardssothattheycanreceivenecessaryresourcesand assistancetomeettheirgoals. Whileconcordancetablescanbehelpfulandinformative,theyhavegenerallimitations.First,the concordance tables provide information about score comparability on different tests, but the scorescannotbeassumedtobeinterchangeable.InthecaseforSOLandMAPtests,astheyare notparallelincontent,scoresfromthesetwotestsshouldnotbedirectlycompared.Second,the sampledatausedinthisstudywerecollectedfrom4schooldistrictsinVirginiaandthesample sizeofgrade8wasmuchsmallerthanthoseofothergrades.Cautionsshouldbeexercisedwhen generalizingtheresultstotesttakerswhodiffersignificantlyfromthissample.Finally,cautions should also be exercised if the concorded scores are used for a subpopulation. NWEA will continuetogatherinformationaboutSOLperformancefromotherschooldistrictsinVirginiato enhancethequalityandgeneralizabilityofthestudy. Page19of23 References Hanson,B.A.,Harris,D.J.,Pommerich,M.,Sconing,J.A.,&Yi,Q.(2001).Suggestionsforthe evaluationanduseofconcordanceresults.(ACTResearchReportNo.2001-1).IowaCity, IA:ACT,Inc. Kolen,M.J.,&Brennan,R.L.(2004).Testequating,scaling,andlinking.NewYork:Springer. Pommerich,M.,Hanson,B.,Harris,D.,&Sconing,J.(2004).Issuesinconductinglinkagebetween distincttests.AppliedPsychologicalMeasurement,28(4),247-273. VirginiaEducationAgency(2015).TechnicalDigestfortheacademicyear2014-2015.Austin,TX: TEAgency. ThumY.M.,&Hauser,C.H.(2015).NWEA2015MAPNormsforStudentandSchoolAchievement StatusandGrowth.NWEAResearchReport.Portland,OR:NWEA. Page20of23 Appendix DataandAnalysis Data Datausedinthisstudywerecollectedfrom4schooldistrictsinVirginia.Thesamplecontained matchedSOLandMAPreadingscoresof7,388studentsinGrades3to8andmatchedSOLand MAPmathscoresof7,625studentsinGrades3to8whocompletedbothMAPandSOLtestsin thespringof2014. Tounderstandthestatisticalcharacteristicsofthetestscores,descriptivestatisticsareprovided in Table A1 below. As Table A1 indicates, the correlation coefficients between MAP and SOL readingscoresrangefrom0.75to0.81,andthecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenMAPandSOL math scores range from 0.76 to 0.81. In general, all these correlations indicate a strong relationshipbetweenMAPandSOLtestscores. TABLEA1.DESCRIPTIVESTATISTICSOFTHESAMPLEDATA Subject Grade 3 4 5 Reading 6 7 8 3 4 5 Math 6 7 8 N 1,573 1,573 1,556 1,249 1,179 258 1,550 1,550 1,522 1,229 1,052 722 r 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.77 0.75 0.81 0.79 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.77 0.79 Mean 435 437 435 429 433 413 423 453 445 429 414 411 SOL SD 66.99 68.86 62.69 59.81 54.10 59.73 66.71 66.74 69.53 45.44 53.27 48.39 Min 208 243 221 244 285 249 257 289 239 308 263 264 Max 600 600 600 600 600 591 600 600 600 600 600 600 Mean 204 210 215 218 222 222 206 216 224 226 231 231 MAP SD Min 12.69 148 12.52 147 12.10 149 12.51 154 12.30 158 16.38 155 10.63 155 11.40 159 12.66 176 13.63 174 13.68 149 16.09 164 Max 236 241 246 249 258 257 247 253 269 264 269 280 Page21of23 EquipercentileLinkingProcedure The equipercentile procedure (e.g., Kolen & Brennan, 2004) was used to establish the concordancerelationshipbetweenSOLandMAPscoresforgrades3to8inreadingandmath. Thisprocedurematchesscoresonthetwoscalesthathavethesamepercentilerank(i.e.,the proportionofscoresatorbeloweachscore). Supposeweneedtoestablishtheconcordedscoresbetweentwotests.𝑥isascoreonTest𝑋 (e.g., SOL). Its equipercentile equivalent score on Test𝑌(e.g., MAP),𝑒& 𝑥 ,can be obtained throughacumulative-distribution-basedlinkingfunctiondefinedinEquation(A1): 𝑒& 𝑥 = 𝐺 *+ [𝑃 𝑥 ] (A1) where𝑒& 𝑥 istheequipercentileequivalentofscoresonSOLonthescaleofMAP,𝑃 𝑥 isthe percentilerankofagivenscoreonTest𝑋.𝐺 *+ istheinverseofthepercentilerankfunctionfor scores on Test𝑌 which indicates the scores on Test𝑌 corresponding to a given percentile. Polynomial loglinear pre-smoothing was applied to reduce irregularities of the frequency distributionsaswellasequipercentilelinkingcurve. ConsistencyrateofClassification Consistency rate of classification accuracy, expressed in the form of a rate between 0 and 1, measures the extent to which MAP scores (and the estimated MAP cut scores) accurately predictedwhetherstudentsinthesamplewouldpass(i.e.,Level2orhigher)onSOLtests. Tocalculateconsistencyrateofclassification,samplestudentsweredesignated“BelowSOLcut” or“AtoraboveSOLcut”basedontheiractualSOLscores.Similarly,theywerealsodesignated as “Below MAP cut” or “At or above MAP cut” based on their actual MAP scores. A 2-way contingencytablewasthentabulated(seeTableA2),classifyingstudentsas“Proficient”onthe basisofSOLcutscoreandconcordantMAPcutscore.Studentsclassifiedinthetruepositive(TP) category were those predicted to be Proficient based on the MAP cut scores and were also classifiedasProficientbasedontheSOLcutscores.Studentsclassifiedinthetruenegative(TN) categorywerethosepredictedtobeNotProficientbasedontheMAPcutscoresandwerealso classifiedasNotProficientbasedontheSOLcutscores.Studentsclassifiedinthefalsepositive (FP) category were those predicted to be Proficient based on the MAP cut scores but were classifiedasNotProficientbasedontheSOLcutscores.Studentsclassifiedinthefalsenegative (FN)categorywerethosepredicatedtobeNotProficientbasedontheMAPcutscoresbutwere classifiedasProficientbasedontheSOLcutscores.Theoverallconsistencyrateofclassification wascomputedastheproportionofcorrectclassificationsamongtheentiresampleby(TP+TN)/ (TP+TN+FP+FN). Page22of23 TABLEA2.DEFINITIONOFCONSISTENCYRATEFORSOLTOMAPCONCORDANCE MAPScore SOLScore BelowSOLcut AtorAboveSOLcut BelowMAPcut TrueNegarve FalseNegarve AtorAboveMAPcut FalsePosirve TruePosirve Note.Shadedcellsaresummedtocomputetheconsistencyrate. ProficiencyProjection MAPconditionalgrowthnormsprovidestudent’sexpectedgainscoresacrosstestingseasons (Thum&Hauser,2015).Thisinformationisutilizedtopredictastudent’sperformanceonthe SOLbasedonthatstudent’sMAPscoresinpriorseasons(e.g.fallandwinter).Theprobabilityof astudentachievingLevel2(Proficient)onSOL,basedonhis/herfallorwinterMAPscoreisgiven inEquation(A2): 𝑃𝑟 𝐴𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔𝐿𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙2𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑅𝐼𝑇𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑜𝑓𝑥) = Φ 𝑥+𝑔−𝑐 (𝐴2) 𝑆𝐷 where,Φisastandardizednormalcumulativedistribution,𝑥isthestudent’sRITscoreinfallor winter,𝑔istheexpectedgrowthfromfallorwintertospringcorrespondingto𝑥,𝑐istheMAP cut-scoreforspring,and𝑆𝐷istheconditionalstandarddeviationofgrowthfromfallorwinter tospring. FortheprobabilityofastudentachievingLevel2ontheSOLtests,basedonhis/herspringscore 𝑠,itcanbecalculatedbyEquation(A3): 𝑃𝑟 𝐴𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔𝐿𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙2𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑅𝐼𝑇𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑜𝑓𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔) = Φ 𝑠−𝑐 (𝐴3) 𝑆𝐸 whereSEisthestandarderrorofmeasurementforMAPreadingormathtest. Foundedbyeducatorsnearly40yearsago,NorthwestEvaluationAssociation(NWEA)isaglobalnot-for-profiteducationalservicesorganization knownforourflagshipinterimassessment,MeasuresofAcademicProgress(MAP).Morethan7,800partnersinU.S.schools,schooldistricts, educationagencies,andinternationalschoolstrustustoofferpre-kindergartenthroughgrade12assessmentsthataccuratelymeasurestudent growthandlearningneeds,professionaldevelopmentthatfosterseducators’abilitytoacceleratestudentlearning,andresearchthatsupports assessmentvalidityanddatainterpretation.Tobetterinforminstructionandmaximizeeverylearner’sacademicgrowth,educatorscurrently useNWEAassessmentswithnearlyeightmillionstudents. ©NorthwestEvaluationAssociation2016.MeasuresofAcademicProgress,MAP,andPartneringtohelpallkidslearnare registeredtrademarksofNorthwestEvaluationAssociationintheU.S.andinothercountries.NorthwestEvaluationAssociation andNWEAaretrademarksofNorthwestEvaluationAssociationintheU.S.andinothercountries.Thenamesofother companiesandtheirproductsmentionedarethetrademarksoftheirrespectiveowners. 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