EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS
TRENDS
TO 2050
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS
TRENDS TO 2050
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Directorate-General for Energy, Directorate-General for Climate Action and Directorate-General for
Mobility and Transport
This publication was prepared for the Directorate-General for Energy, the Directorate-General for Climate
Action and the Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport by the E3M-Lab of the Institute of Communication and Computer Systems at the National Technical University of Athens (ICCS-NTUA), Greece, in
cooperation with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and EuroCARE and represents those organisations’ views on energy, transport and GHG emissions facts, figures and projections.
These views should not be considered as a statement of the Commission’s or the Directorate-General’s
views.
Authors
E3M-Lab: Prof. P. Capros, A. De Vita, N. Tasios, D. Papadopoulos, P. Siskos, E. Apostolaki, M. Zampara, L.
Paroussos, K. Fragiadakis, N. Kouvaritakis, et al.
IIASA -GAINS model: L. Höglund-Isaksson, W. Winiwarter, P. Purohit
IIASA -GLOBIOM model: H. Böttcher, S. Frank, P. Havlík, M. Gusti
EuroCARE: H. P. Witzke
The manuscript was completed on 16 December 2013
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Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2013
ISBN 978-92-79-33728-4
doi: 10.2833/17897:
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Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
Cover photo © Arie J. Jager/ iStock/ Thinkstock
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................................... 3
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................. 4
1.
INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 10
PURPOSE OF THE PUBLICATION ......................................................................................................................................................................10
EU REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013 .....................................................................................................................................................................11
2.
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................................................................. 14
MACROECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................................14
WORLD FOSSIL FUEL PRICES ............................................................................................................................................................................16
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS .................................................................................................................................................................17
POLICY ASSUMPTIONS ......................................................................................................................................................................................20
FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS ...................................................................................................................................................................................25
Discount Rates ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Degree days .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Exchange rates ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
3.
RESULTS FOR THE EU REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013 ....................................................................... 27
OVERVIEW OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICIES AND MEASURES..............................................................................27
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF RES SUPPORTING MEASURES AND THE EVOLUTION OF RES INDICATORS .....................................................30
OVERVIEW OF THE EU ETS AND PROJECTIONS ON CARBON PRICES .......................................................................................................32
ENERGY CONSUMPTION ..................................................................................................................................................................................34
Industrial sector .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Residential sector ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Tertiary sector (services and agriculture) ..................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Transport sector ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
POWER GENERATION.......................................................................................................................................................................................42
Electricity generation .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Steam and heat supply...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Electricity costs and prices ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 47
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY AND IMPORT DEPENDENCY.................................................................................................................................49
CO2 EMISSIONS .................................................................................................................................................................................................50
NON-CO2 EMISSIONS AND THEIR DRIVERS ...................................................................................................................................................53
Agriculture sector ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Energy sector ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 56
Waste and wastewater sector ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 56
F-gas emissions ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57
Industry sectors covered by the EU ETS ...................................................................................................................................................................... 58
TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS (EXCLUDING LULUCF) .......................................................................................................................................59
LULUCF EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS AND THEIR DRIVERS .........................................................................................................................59
Emissions from forest land ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
Emissions from cropland ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Emissions from grassland ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 63
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Emissions from other land ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
TOTAL ENERGY SYSTEM AND OTHER MITIGATION COSTS .......................................................................................................................... 63
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 64
GLOSSARY...........................................................................................................................................................66
APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC AND MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS .............................................69
APPENDIX 2: SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCES AND INDICATORS .........................................................85
APPENDIX 3: NON-CO2 GHG EMISSIONS ...................................................................................................147
APPENDIX 4: LULUCF EMISSIONS ...............................................................................................................161
2
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: EXAMPLES OF COSTS AND EFFICIENCIES OF DEMAND SIDE TECHNOLOGIES .................................................................................19
TABLE 2: EU AND OTHER POLICIES INCLUDED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013 ...................................................................................20
TABLE 3: EFFECT OF POLICIES ADOPTED IN THE REFERENCE 2013 SCENARIO ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION............................................30
TABLE 4: AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE INDUSTRY SECTOR ................................................................36
TABLE 5: INDICATORS OF POWER GENERATION ..............................................................................................................................................47
TABLE 6: VOLUME OF ELECTRICITY TRADE ........................................................................................................................................................47
TABLE 7: EVOLUTION OF COST COMPONENTS OF ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 2010-20 ....................................................................................48
TABLE 8 : MAIN NATIONAL POLICIES WITH SPECIFIC EFFECTS ON NON-CO2 GHGS AND CONSIDERED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
........................................................................................................................................................................................................................55
TABLE 9: METHODOLOGY USED TO ESTIMATE LULUCF EMISSIONS .............................................................................................................60
EU Reference scenario 2013
3
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: POPULATION OF EU28 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 14
FIGURE 2: GDP OF THE EU27 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 14
FIGURE 3: AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF GDP PER CAPITA ............................................................................................................. 15
FIGURE 4: GINI INDEX FOR THE EU28 MEMBER STATES ................................................................................................................................ 15
FIGURE 5: STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY IN EU28 ....................................................................................................................................... 16
FIGURE 6: FOSSIL FUEL IMPORT PRICES ............................................................................................................................................................... 17
FIGURE 7: RATIO OF GAS TO COAL AND GAS TO OIL PRICES ......................................................................................................................... 17
FIGURE 8: DEVELOPMENT OF CAPITAL COSTS OVER TIME FOR POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES .................................................... 18
FIGURE 9: DISCOUNT RATES USED IN PRIMES................................................................................................................................................. 26
FIGURE 10: RES INDICATORS AT THE EU LEVEL............................................................................................................................................... 32
FIGURE 11: PROJECTION OF THE ETS PRICE ..................................................................................................................................................... 33
FIGURE 12: AVAILABLE ALLOWANCES AND ETS GHG EMISSIONS PROJECTION ......................................................................................... 33
FIGURE 13: PROJECTION OF ALLOWANCES SURPLUS ...................................................................................................................................... 33
FIGURE 14: GIC IN RELATION TO GDP ............................................................................................................................................................ 34
FIGURE 15: ENERGY INTENSITY PROJECTIONS BY SECTOR .............................................................................................................................. 35
FIGURE 16: GROSS INLAND CONSUMPTION ..................................................................................................................................................... 35
FIGURE 17: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION....................................................................................................................................................... 35
FIGURE 18: TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR ............................................................................................................................. 35
FIGURE 19: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ..................................................................................................... 36
FIGURE 20: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR BY ENERGY FORM...................................................................... 36
FIGURE 21: IMPROVEMENTS IN EFFICIENCY OF THE ENERGY EQUIPMENT IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR COMPARED TO 2005 .............. 37
FIGURE 22: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR................................................................................................................ 37
FIGURE 23: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN THE TERTIARY SECTOR ..................................................................................................................... 38
FIGURE 24: TRENDS IN TRANSPORT ACTIVITY AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION .............................................................................................. 40
FIGURE 25: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN TRANSPORT ....................................................................................................................................... 40
FIGURE 26: TRANSPORT EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT........................................................................................................................................ 41
FIGURE 27: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN TRANSPORT BY FUEL TYPE ............................................................................................................... 42
FIGURE 28: STRUCTURE OF PASSENGER CARS FLEET AND FUEL CONSUMPTION .......................................................................................... 42
FIGURE 29: ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL AND BY PLANT TYPE ........................................................................................................... 44
FIGURE 30: INSTALLED POWER CAPACITIES ...................................................................................................................................................... 46
FIGURE 31: PROJECTED CAPACITY ADDITIONS ................................................................................................................................................ 46
FIGURE 32: FUEL INPUT FOR STEAM GENERATION ........................................................................................................................................... 47
FIGURE 33: COST COMPONENTS OF AVERAGE ELECTRICITY PRICE ............................................................................................................... 48
FIGURE 34: PRICE OF ELECTRICITY (PRE-TAX) BY SECTOR .............................................................................................................................. 48
FIGURE 35: PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY ................................................................................................................................................................ 49
FIGURE 36: PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................... 49
FIGURE 37: PRIMARY ENERGY IMPORTS ............................................................................................................................................................. 49
FIGURE 38: NET IMPORTS BY FUEL ..................................................................................................................................................................... 50
FIGURE 39: CO2 EMISSIONS OF POWER GENERATION AND ENERGY TRANSFORMATION .......................................................................... 50
FIGURE 40: ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR .............................................................................................. 51
FIGURE 41: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ............................................................................................................................. 51
FIGURE 42: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE TERTIARY SECTOR................................................................................................................................... 52
FIGURE 43: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR .............................................................................................................................. 52
4
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
FIGURE 44: EVOLUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS .....................................................................................................................................................53
FIGURE 45: EVOLUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR .................................................................................................................................53
FIGURE 46: NON-CO2 GHGS BY MAJOR SECTORS IN EU28 2005 TO 2050 ..............................................................................................54
FIGURE 47: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN EU28 BY SOURCE.................................................................................55
FIGURE 48: AGRICULTURE SECTOR ACTIVITY DRIVERS AND EMISSIONS OF NON-CO2 GHGS IN EU28 ..................................................56
FIGURE 49: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN EU28 BY SOURCE ...........................................................................................56
FIGURE 50: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE WASTE AND WASTEWATER SECTOR IN EU28 .............................................................................57
FIGURE 51: F-GAS EMISSIONS IN EU28 BY SOURCE ..........................................................................................................................................58
FIGURE 52: NON-CO2 GHGS OF EU-ETS SECTORS IN EU28 ......................................................................................................................58
FIGURE 53: EVOLUTION OF GHG EMISSIONS ...................................................................................................................................................59
FIGURE 54: EU28 LULUCF EMISSIONS UNTIL 2050 IN MT CO2...................................................................................................................60
FIGURE 55: EU28 LULUCF SECTOR LAND BALANCE IN 1.000 HA UNTIL 2050 .........................................................................................61
FIGURE 56: EU28 HARVEST REMOVALS AND INCREMENT IN 1.000 M3 UNTIL 2050 ...................................................................................61
FIGURE 57: DEVELOPMENT OF THE EU28 CARBON SINK IN THE FOREST SECTOR UNTIL 2050 .................................................................62
FIGURE 58: EVOLUTION OF ENERGY SYSTEM COSTS ........................................................................................................................................63
EU Reference scenario 2013
5
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
ABBREVIATIONS & UNITS
BEV
Battery Electric Vehicle
bn
billion
boe
barrel of oil equivalent
Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural
BGR
Resources (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe)
CAPEX
Capital Expenditure
Gpkm
giga passenger-kilometre, or
9
10 passenger-kilometre
giga tonne-kilometre, or 10
tonne-kilometre
CCGT
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
Gtkm
CCS
Carbon Capture and Storage
GWh
CDM
Clean Development Mechanism
km
kilometre
CHP
Combined Heat and Power
ktoe
1000 toe
CIS
Commonwealth of Independent States
Mt
million metric tonnes
CNG
Compressed Natural Gas
Mtoe
million toe or 10 toe
CO2
Carbon dioxide
MW
megawatt or 10 watt
9
9
DG ECFIN
EED
ENTSO-E
Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Energy Efficiency Directive
European Network of Transmission System
Operators for Electricity
gigawatt-hour or 10 watthours
6
6
6
MWh
p.a.
megawatt-hour or 10 watthours
per annum
passenger-kilometre (one
pkm
passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)
EPBD
Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
t
metric tonne
EPC
Economic Policy Committee
toe
tonnes of oil equivalent
tkm
tonne-kilometre (one tonne
ESCO
Energy Service Company
transported a distance of one
kilometre
ESD
Effort Sharing Decision
ETS
Emissions Trading Scheme
EU
European Union
EU28
European Union of 28 Member States
EU27
EU15
6
European Union of 27 Member States (before
accession of Croatia)
European Union of 15 Member States before
the 2004 enlargement (Austria, Belgium,
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom)
Member States joining the European Union
after 2004, excluding Croatia (Bulgaria, CyEU12
prus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovak Republic)
EUROSTAT
Statistical Office of the European Union
EV
Electrically chargeable Vehicle
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GHG
Greenhouse Gas
GIC
Gross Inland Consumption
HDV
Heavy Duty Vehicle (HGVs and buses)
HGV
Heavy Goods Vehicle
IATA
International Air Transport Association
ICE
Internal Combustion Engine
IEA
International Energy Agency
IEA-WEO
International Energy Agency World Energy
Outlook
IPPC
Integrated Pollution Prevention Control
LCV
Light Commercial Vehicle
LDV
Light Duty Vehicle (LCVs and passenger
cars)
LNG
Liquefied Natural Gas
LPG
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
LULUCF
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MS
Member State
NREAP
National Renewable Energy Action Plan
NTC
Net Transfer Capacities
OECD
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development
OPEX
Operational expenditure
PHEV
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
PV
Solar Photovoltaic
EU Reference scenario 2013
7
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RES
Renewable Energy Sources
RES-E
Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity
RES-H&C
8
Renewable Energy Sources for Heating and
Cooling
RES-T
Renewable Energy Sources for Transport
RP
Resource-Production
TEN-T
Trans-European Transport Network
TYNDP
Ten-Year Network Development Plan (adopted by ENTSO-E)
USGS
United States Geological Survey
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
INTRODUCTION
EU Reference scenario 2013
9
INTRODUCTION
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
The Reference scenario was elaborated by a consorti-
1.
Introduction
Purpose of the publication
This report is an update and extension of the previous trend scenarios for development of energy systems taking account of transport and GHG emissions
developments, such as the “European energy and
transport - Trends to 2030” published in 2003 and its
1
2005, 2007 and 2009 updates . The purpose of this
publication is to present the new "EU Reference scenario 2013" ("Reference scenario" later in the text).
This Reference scenario was finalised in July 2013. It
focuses even more than previous ones on the energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU developments and the various interactions among policies,
including now also specific sections on emission
trends not related to energy. Its time horizon has
been extended up to 2050. It reports for the first time
on EU28 including Croatia. Moreover, the modelling
process has included four rounds of consultation of
Member States experts on Member State specific
assumptions and draft modelling results. The responsibility for the results rests, however, with the authors
of the scenario who were commissioned to do this
work by Directorate General for Energy, Directorate
General for Climate Action and Directorate General
for Mobility and Transport.
This new update is based on the latest available statistical year from EUROSTAT at the time of the modelling (the year 2010). In comparison to the previous
version, the newest macro-economic data already
shows the statistical effects of the on-going EU's
economic downturn in activity of different sectors as
well as energy consumption and GHG emissions.
The demographic and economic forecasts reflect recent projections by EUROSTAT and the joint work of
the Economic Policy Committee and the European
Commission (DG ECFIN) respectively. The "Ageing
2
Report 2012" has been the starting point of this ex-
1
Please see: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/trends_2030/
Please see:
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_econ
omy/2012/2012-ageing-report_en.htm.
2
10
um led by the National Technical University of Athens
(E3MLab), using the PRIMES model for energy and
CO2 emission projections, the GAINS model for nonCO2 emission projections and the GLOBIOM-G4M
models for LULUCF emission and removal projections,
supported by some more specialised models (e.g.
GEM-E3 model that has been used for projections for
the value added by branch of activity, PROMETHEUS
model that has been deployed for projections of world
energy prices and CAPRI model for agricultural activity
projections). Please see more information about these
specialised models in the section on total GHGs emissions. The scenarios are available for the EU and each
of its 28 Member States simulating the energy balances and GHG emission trends for future years under
current trends and policies as adopted in the Member
States by spring 2012.
The PRIMES model is a modelling system that simulates a market equilibrium solution for energy supply
and demand in the EU28 and its Member States. The
model determines the equilibrium by finding the prices
of each energy form such that the quantity producers
find best to supply matches the quantity consumers
wish to use. The market equilibrium is achieved for
each time period and the simulation is dynamic over
time. The model is behavioural but also represents in
an explicit and detailed way the available energy demand and supply technologies and pollution abatement
technologies. The system reflects considerations about
market
economics,
industry
structure,
energy/environmental policies and regulation, which are
conceived so as to influence market behaviour of energy system agents. The modular structure of PRIMES
reflects a distribution of decision making among agents
that act individually about their supply, demand, combined supply and demand, and prices. The market integrating part of PRIMES subsequently simulates market clearing.
In this exercise the more detailed PRIMES-TREMOVE
transport model was also used to develop the transport
projections; this model is now fully integrated with the
main PRIMES model.
PRIMES is a general purpose energy model; it is conceived for designing projections to the future, scenario
building and policy impact analysis. It covers a medium
to long-term horizon. Its modular structure allows either
for integrating model use or for partial use.
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
INTRODUCTION
ercise giving long term population and GDP growth
trends up to 2060 while the short and medium term
the perception related to nuclear power generation
and tightened the security requirements for nuclear
GDP growth projections were taken from DG ECFIN.
technologies.
The recent boom in shale gas development and exploration of unconventional oil reserves are increasing the fossil fuel reserve basis and thus changing the
projections about the developments of international
fuel prices. The fuel prices have been updated in the
new scenario to take into account the recent devel-
In the context of climate change policies, specific Copenhagen/Cancun pledges for 2020 have been also
set in other world regions, which have been considered in the world energy price modelling part of this
exercise.
opments.
EU Reference scenario 2013
Significant progress has been made towards the
The new Reference scenario determines as core element the development of the EU energy system un-
achievement of the targets set out in the EU Energy
and Climate Package, and new legislative measures,
3
most notably the Energy Efficiency Directive , have
been adopted at EU level. Several changes have occurred at national levels as well.
This report focuses on trend projections understood
in the sense of a Reference scenario. Similar to the
Reference scenario latest update from 2009, this
Reference scenario starts from the assumption that
the legally binding GHG and RES targets for 2020 will
be achieved and that the policies agreed at EU level
by spring 2012 (notably on energy efficiency) as well
as relevant adopted national policies will be implemented in the Member States. Following this approach the Reference scenario can help enlightening
the debate on where currently adopted policies might
lead the EU and whether further policy development,
including for the longer term, would be needed. This
Reference scenario can therefore also serve as
benchmark or reference for assessing the impacts of
envisaged policy initiatives at EU level in the areas of
der current trends and adopted policies. It includes
current trends on population and economic development including the latest 2010 statistics and takes
into account the highly volatile energy import prices
environment of recent years. It portrays economic
decisions, which are driven by market forces and
technology progress in the framework of concrete
national and EU policies and measures adopted until
spring 2012 and which are or will be implemented
over the next years. The Reference 2013 scenario
includes all binding targets set out in EU legislation
regarding development of renewable energies and
reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as
well as the latest legislation promoting energy efficiency.
These assumptions together with the current statistical situation derived from the EUROSTAT energy
balances represent the starting point for projections
which are presented from 2015 onwards in 5 years'
steps until 2050.
energy, transport and climate.
The Reference 2013 scenario benefited from the
Some technology development forecasts have
changed since the latest update in 2009 both in posi-
comments of Member States experts. Many comments and additional information communicated by
tive way: faster than expected development for solar
PV technology and negative: slower than expected
the Member States were accommodated in revising
developments for CCS and remote off-shore wind
technologies.
Furthermore, international events, such as the Fuku-
the draft Reference scenario, while preserving a harmonised approach to EU energy system modelling.
The modelling has involved Member States experts
at various stages starting from responses to a very
shima nuclear accident of March 2011, have changed
detailed policy questionnaire and the Member States'
comments on macro-economic and sectorial econom-
3
ic projections. As a second step, detailed transport
For precise references to legislation, please see Table 2.
EU Reference scenario 2013
11
INTRODUCTION
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
activity modelling took place on the basis of these
consulted/revised economic trends, which, in turn,
were consulted with Member States' experts in autumn 2012. The third modelling step consisted in energy system and economy modelling with PRIMES
based on the revised economic and transport results
from stages 1 and 2. The draft outcome of the energy
modelling was again consulted with experts from the
Member States. This step included also the modelling
of energy related and industrial CO2 emissions. The
final step was the modelling and consultation of nonCO2 GHG trends, including energy related ones, and
of CO2 emissions and removals related to land use,
land use change and forestry (LULUCF). The macroeconomic assumptions and the results of the energy
modelling were important drivers for such GHG emissions, which were also based on modelling of other
areas such as agriculture and forestry.
Member States comments have been accommodated
as far as possible while striving to provide a consistent EU Reference scenario based on harmonised
assumptions on e.g. GDP and world energy prices as
well as EU and national policies and making sure that
imports and exports of energy among Member States
match. It needs to be, however, noted that the responsibility for these results lies with the consultants
and the Commission services. In any case, the comments from Member States have helped a lot to improve the quality of the projections, on which this report gives an account, focusing on EU28 results.
In addition to its role as a trend projection, the Reference scenario is a benchmark for scenarios featuring
alternative policy approaches or framework conditions (e.g. higher energy import prices, more ambitious renewables and climate policies).
All numbers included in this report, except otherwise
stated, refer to European Union of 28 Member States.
12
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
THE EU REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013
EU Reference scenario 2013
13
ASSUMPTIONS
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
4
FIGURE 1: POPULATION OF EU28
2.
Main assumptions
0.8
525
0.7
520
0.6
Macroeconomic and demographic scenario
515
0.5
The Reference 2013 scenario builds on macro-
510
0.4
505
0.3
500
0.2
Millions
economic projections of GDP and population which
are exogenous to the models used. The historical
time series from 1995 to 2010 were entirely updated
using the time series from EUROSTAT. The economic indicators therefore fully reflect the economic
downturn as it occurred in recent years up to 2010.
GDP and population projections by MS are considered as given. The scenario mirrors the recent DG
ECFIN projections for the short and medium term
(following the agreement reached in the Economic
Policy Committee (EPC)) and the EPC/DG ECFIN
Ageing Report 2012 (from first quarter 2012) for the
long-run. The GEM-E3 model is used to project the
structure of the economy and gross value added
generated by different sectors, consistently with the
given GDP projection.
The macroeconomic scenario comprises numerical
projections of GDP (volume), households’ income,
population and sectorial activity (using gross value
added in volume as a proxy) for 22 sectors, in each
EU Member State. The 22 sectors comprise: 10 en-
-0.1
-0.2
1996-2007), see Figure 2. In the longer term, lower
growth rates are assumed (avg. 1.4% pa over the
period 2030-2050). GDP/capita is projected to increase by a factor of 1.7 between 2010 and 2050.
Labour supply is linked to slowly growing and then
declining population as well as its ageing; this combined with assumptions on productivity trends from
the Ageing report explain rather low potential GDP
growth rates for the EU.
5
FIGURE 2: GDP OF THE EU27
Billion Euro'10
25000
5.0
20000
3.0
15000
1.0
%
GDP
10000
-1.0
% change pa
5000
population projection for the period 2010 to 2050.
This projection assumes fertility rates rising slightly,
an increase in persons aged 65 or more.
5-years avg. %
change
the period 2015-2030, down from the 2.2% pa during
The population projections are based on EUROSTAT
changes in its age structure: the projections point to a
significant reduction in the population aged 15-64 and
0.0
485
0.1
current economic crisis, followed by steady GDP
growth rates in the medium term (avg. 1.6% pa over
relevant drivers for energy demand and supply).
and decline slightly thereafter (see Figure 1). It is projected that the population undergoes significant
490
% change pa
The GDP projection assumes a recovery from the
that it simulates the energy markets by considering all
the EU population is projected to increase up to 2040
Population
%
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
and the energy supply sector (the value added of
which is not used as input to the energy model given
further life expectancy gains, and continued, but decelerating inward net migration to the EU. As a result,
495
480
ergy intensive industries, 6 non energy intensive industries, 3 service sectors, construction, agriculture
14
530
5-years avg. %
change
0
-3.0
-5.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
The highest GDP growth rate is projected in the period 2015-2030 whereas declining labour force and
slowdown in productivity growth lead to lower growth
4
Due to lack of consistent data for Croatia data is shown from
2007 onwards
5
GDP is shown for the EU27 only as past consistent data for Croatia is only available from 2010 onwards.
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
pace in the long term. Nevertheless, the slowdown in
population growth allows for steady growth of GDP
ASSUMPTIONS
6
FIGURE 4: GINI INDEX FOR THE EU28 MEMBER STATES
GINI index improves by 13.9% in 2050 from 2010
per capita in the long term. In this respect, the convergence is shown in the EPC/DG ECFIN Ageing
100%
Cumulative shares of income earned
90%
Report 2012, which materialises through higher
growth rates of the new Member States and, in the
longer term, lower dispersion of GDP per capita
among all the Member States (see Figure 3).
FIGURE 3: AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF GDP PER
CAPITA
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
2010
30%
2050
20%
Latvia
10%
Estonia
0%
Lithuania
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Cumulative shares of people from lower to higher incomes
Bulgaria
Poland
Romania
The Reference scenario projection sees a continua-
Slovakia
tion of trends towards higher share of services in
Malta
GDP, which generate 78% of total value added by
2050. The projection also shows a recovery of activity
Czech
Hungary
in industry after the current crisis with industry being
projected to grow predominantly through shifting to-
Croatia
Finland
Sweden
wards higher value added products, rather than higher amounts of products. For energy intensive indus-
EU28
UK
tries recovery and then slow growth pace is project-
Spain
2010-2050
ed. Non energy intensive industries see a more significant growth. The remaining sectors - construction,
France
Denmark
agriculture and energy sector - see a rather slow
growth of activity.
Portugal
Slovenia
Ireland

Austria
Germany
For basic metals (ferrous and non-ferrous)
global projection shows steady growth of
world consumption of basic metals, with very
slow decoupling from world GDP growth.
Netherlands
Belgium
Cyprus
Faced with the global competition and demand growth mainly in other world regions,
Italy
Luxembourg
the EU’s share in global market steadily de-
Greece
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
clines, continuing past trends. Activity is,
however, projected to remain in the EU,
3.00
thanks to shifting production to high quality
The impact of the current debt crisis is significant in
several EU countries, which will struggle to return to
growth in the short term; on the other hand, several
countries with lower GDP/capita are likely to see their
relative position improved.
EU Reference scenario 2013
6
An improvement of the GINI coefficient by -13.9% means that in
2050 there is a better cohesion than in 2010 (lower inequality
among incomes in MS). The main improvement of the GINI index
comes from the lowest classes of income frequency distribution
which means that poorer countries tend to grow faster than richer
countries in the EU.
The calculation of the GINI coefficient includes Croatia.
15
ASSUMPTIONS
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
products and to the tight links with equipment
goods industry also located in the EU. EU
tor in the EU industry, growing at steady
pace, albeit slightly more slowly than in the
production of pig iron and primary aluminium
is projected to increase more slowly than
period before the crisis.
growth of the basic metals industry, which in

Other industries (food products, wood prod-
clude electric arc and recycled metals.
ucts, etc.) also see steady growth with the
exception of textile industry, which is project-
For energy intensive chemicals, the recovery
from crisis is slow and followed by slow
ed to decline, due to competition from other
world regions.
growth. The EU production of fertilisers and
petrochemical products is projected to stabilise and slightly decline in the long term as a
result of weakening of EU competitiveness
and low demand in the internal market. Other
chemicals, particularly pharmaceutical and
cosmetics, are projected to grow slightly faster.

The non-metallic minerals sector – cement,
ceramics, glass - is characterised by slow recovery from crisis followed by a slower
growth pace than before the crisis. Slower
growth is related to lower demand due to
slowdown of construction activity linked to
demographic change.

For the paper and pulp industry there is significant recovery from crisis and sustained
growth, although pulp production grows much
less than the entire paper sector. Nonethe-

The macro-economic and sectorial projections are
available by Member State (see Appendix 1).
World fossil fuel prices
The world fossil fuel price projections have undergone substantial revisions of key assumptions compared to the previous Reference scenario exercise:
“Trends to 2030 – Update 2009” including on reserves notably of shale gas and other unconventional
hydrocarbons, world economic developments and the
reflection of Copenhagen/Cancun pledges. Prices are
projected to develop along new trajectories rather
different from the past ones, particularly for gas.
The projection has been developed independently
with the PROMETHEUS model (stochastic world energy model) and was finalised in January 2012. The
International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook
less there is a slow decline of EU share in
(IEA WEO) for 2011 was published while work on the
PROMETHEUS projections for the Reference scenar-
global trade of paper and pulp.
io was already in progress, consequently an effort
The equipment goods industry (engineering)
is projected to remain the most dynamic sec-
was made to harmonise some of the assumptions but
otherwise the results have been arrived at inde-
FIGURE 5: STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY IN EU28
Shares in %
Gross Value Added
Billion Euro'10
Other sectors
16
20000
18000
16000
Energy intensive
14000
industry
12000
10000
Non energy
8000
intensive
industry
6000
4000
Services
2000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
19
18
18
16
74
75
76
78
2010
2020
2030
2050
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
pendently.
Large upward revisions for conventional gas and oil
ASSUMPTIONS
production (RP) ratios result in resumption of upward
trend in prices.
resources availability (following USGS, BGR, IEA)
have been implemented as well as the inclusion of
In the longer term, gas prices do not follow the upward trend of oil price. This is mostly due to the very
worldwide estimates of unconventional gas resources
large additional undiscovered resources that were
(tight sands, shale gas and coal bed methane) based
on estimates from IEA. The change implies that the
factored in, including unconventional gas. More importantly, natural gas prices stabilise at a level that is
natural gas resource base increases more than 2.5
times with important implications on prices.
still high enough to ensure economic viability of unconventional gas projects.
FIGURE 6: FOSSIL FUEL IMPORT PRICES
The downward revision of gas prices compared with
the 2009 Baseline had also impacts on coal prices
160
given that both fuels are competing in power generacoal price in
$'2010/boe
120
100
80
tion.
FIGURE 7: RATIO OF GAS TO COAL AND GAS TO OIL PRICES
60
40
natural gas price in
$'2010/boe
20
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
0
Regarding economic drivers, overall higher GDP
growth is projected than in the previous exercise: major upward revisions were undertaken for China, India
and Middle East and North Africa regions. For Europe
DG ECFIN Ageing reports were used, whereas other
regions basically follow IEA projections.
gas to coal
oil price in
$'2010/boe
3.60
1.80
3.20
1.60
2.80
1.40
2.40
1.20
2.00
1.00
1.60
0.80
1.20
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.40
0.20
-
gas to oil
140
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
gas to coal
gas to oil
10 per. Mov. Avg. (gas to coal)
10 per. Mov. Avg. (gas to oil)
Energy technology progress
For the overall projection, the Copenhagen-Cancun
The EU Reference Scenario 2013, as the previous
Reference scenarios, deals explicitly with the pene-
pledges are expected to be respected through carbon
prices as well as dedicated policies and measures.
tration of new technologies notably in power generation and transport and specifically with progress in
China, India and the CIS meet their pledges through
“lack of ambition”, whereas OECD Western Pacific
renewable technologies including further technology
learning. As analysed in the part on results, the pene-
fall considerably short because of high ambition com-
tration of new technologies leads to changes in the
pared to track record so far. Apart from the EU, no
additional climate related policies are assumed for
energy mix, alongside other drivers such as relative
prices and costs, policies to promote energy efficien-
the period beyond 2030.
cy, renewables and new technologies and broader
market trends regarding economic efficiency and bet-
Up to 2035, the projections result in oil prices which
are broadly in agreement with IEA-WEO 2011 and
2012 update (reporting up to that time horizon). For
the shorter term, higher prices reflect failure of productive capacity to grow in line with demand (fuelled
by economic recovery in the EU and US and persistent growth in emerging regions). The situation eases
somewhat around 2020 before declining resource-
EU Reference scenario 2013
ter use of resources. These interdependent developments also bring about energy efficiency improvements on both the demand and supply side. They
also result in energy technology changes, which in
the modelling are represented by an uptake of specific energy technologies from a broad portfolio of different technologies that change over time. The tech-
17
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
ASSUMPTIONS
nology portfolio in the Reference Scenario includes
the following categories:

End-use energy efficiency (thermal integrity
of buildings, lighting, electric appliances, motor drives, heat pumps, etc.).

Renewable energy in centralized and decentralized power generation, in direct heating
and cooling applications, as well as for blending with petrol or diesel oil.

Supercritical coal plants, advanced gas combined cycle plants and CHP.

CO2 carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Nuclear energy including 3
tion.

Advanced transmission and distribution grids
and smart metering.

Plug-in hybrid and battery/full electric vehicles, both for passenger and freight road
transportation (light commercial vehicles).

Improvements in conventional engines in
transport.
rd
changed considerably and these have been taken
into account in the PRIMES model. The changes include:

Solar photovoltaics (PVs): techno-economic
improvements in the solar PV industry have
surpassed previous expectations and costs
have changed already for the short term. The
development of PVs starts from lower costs,
than previously expected and has a positive
learning curve throughout the projection period.

Remote offshore wind: in the previous exercise, following the review of available literature assumptions, the assumptions about remote offshore wind were very positive, including strong cost reductions. Following the latest literature review, assumptions about
techno-economic developments have been
revised upwards. Capital costs for remote
offshore wind developments are now expected to be significantly higher and the costs
to reduce more slowly.

Nuclear: since the Fukushima accident in
March 2011 security standards for nuclear
th
and 4 genera-
Although the key features of the technologies in the
portfolio are known today, the projected evolution of
their technical and economic characteristics presupposes that substantial industrial research and
FIGURE 8: DEVELOPMENT OF CAPITAL COSTS OVER TIME FOR POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES
Development of capital costs over time (non-RES)
Development of capital costs over time (RES)
6000
7000
5000
6000
5931
4212
3949
EUR'2010/kW
3522
3370
2553
2445
2348
2061
5175
4073
4000
3000
2000
5000
EUR'2010/kW
4350
4000
2165
1811
1811
3988
3507
3000
2829
3158
2560
2000
1963
1508
1232
1000
832
898
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
Pulverised Coal Suprcritical CCS oxyfuel
Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Gas Advanced
Nuclear third
778
2035
2040
2045
2050
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Coal
Gas combined cycle CCS pre combustion
demonstration takes place enabling deployment at a
wide scale.
Compared to the 2009 Reference exercise the development prospects of certain technologies have
18
1291
1000
0
2015
2020
1150
1085
2025
2030
788
2035
Wind onshore
Remote Wind Offshore
Solar Thermal
Geothermal
2040
2045
2050
Solar PV (large scale)
power plants have been tightened, leading to
higher costs for their construction and testing
requirements. Costs for nuclear power plants
are therefore increased. With the new risk
assessment, financing conditions for nuclear
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
power plants have also worsened and this is
also reflected in the modelling.


CCS: the construction of power plants
equipped with carbon capture technologies
has been developing at a much slower pace
than expected at the time of development of
the 2009 Reference exercise. Development
of CCS is also hampered and delayed due to
public acceptance issues over building of the
storage capacities. The new difficulties and
the delays in the development of CCS are
taken into account in this new exercise.
Demand side technologies have been updated where is was found necessary following
latest literature review which includes the
most up to date preparatory studies for the
preparation of eco-design regulations and the
amendment of CO2 from light duty vehicles
regulation.
The modelling also assumes that learning curves apply for specific technologies, thus reflecting decreasing costs and increasing performances as a function
of cumulative production. The steepness of the learning curve differs by technology, depending also on
their current stage of maturity.
ASSUMPTIONS
Taking into account the technology portfolio available,
energy efficiency gains in the scenarios are driven by
microeconomic decisions, reflecting the market
agents' aim of minimizing costs and maximizing economic benefits operating in the context of public policies that promote energy efficiency. Similarly, renewables and CHP development are driven by private
economic considerations also taking into account
supportive policies which are assumed to continue in
the Reference scenario and gradually decrease in the
longer term (see policy assumptions).
The techno-economic characteristics of existing and
new energy technologies used in the demand and the
supply sectors of the energy system evolve over time
and improve according to exogenously specified
trends including learning rates. At any given time,
several technologies are competing with different performance and costs as presented by examples in Table 1. Following the logic developed in the previous
PRIMES versions, consumers and suppliers are generally hesitant to adopt new technologies before they
become sufficiently mature. They behave as if they
perceive a higher cost (compared to engineering cost
evaluations for the operation of such equipment)
when deciding upon adoption of new technologies.
Public policies at EU and national level, through information campaigns, inTABLE 1: EXAMPLES OF COSTS AND EFFICIENCIES OF DEMAND SIDE TECHNOLOGIES
dustrial policy, R&D supAppliance/Equipment
Unit
Base case
Improved
Advanced
Best
port, taxation and other
Consumption
kWh/hour
1.05
-5%
-10%
-20%
means, aim at pushing
Domestic Dishwashers
Costs
EUR'10/appl
349
29%
80%
130%
more rapid adoption of new
technologies by removing
Consumption
kWh/hour
0.03
-26%
-80%
-82%
Domestic Lighting
or compensating uncertainCosts
EUR'10/appl
4
34%
130%
165%
ties associated with their
Efficiency
COP
2.50
21%
47%
52%
Domestic AC (Electricity)
use. In this way, the techCosts
EUR'10/kW
415.7
20%
61%
85%
nologies themselves reach
Efficiency
(Useful/Final)
0.68
9%
23%
30%
Domestic boiler -Dwelling size
maturity more rapidly as a
(natural gas)
Costs
EUR'10
3342
15%
49%
71%
result of “learning-by-doing”
Efficiency
(Useful/Final)
0.64
21%
42%
47%
effects and economies of
Water heating boiler (natural gas)
Costs
EUR'10
700
40%
101%
131%
scale. Supportive policies
for the adoption of new
For power generation technologies the Reference
technologies
thus
lead
to
modifications in the percepscenario takes an optimistic view about the future,
tion of technologies.
without however assuming breakthroughs in technology development. All power technologies known today are projected to improve in terms of unit cost and
efficiency.
EU Reference scenario 2013
In the end, agents adopt new technologies because
they aim at reducing the costs of energy services,
which represent an important household budget/company balance sheet item. On macro-economic
19
ASSUMPTIONS
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
level, GDP growth is therefore associated with continuous improvement of the technological basis leading to improved energy intensity, which is also supported by the effects from structural change in the
economy.
notably the Joint Research Centre of the European
Commission.
Last but not least, the deployment of some of the new
technologies depends on the development of new
infrastructure and regulations, which are partly driven
by government. This is the case, for example, for interconnectors and grid expansion, CCS regarding the
transportation and storage of captured CO2 and for
the electrification of transportation which depends on
TSOs and DSOs undertaking grid and control systems investments.
2012 and policies, measures and legislative provisions (including on binding targets) adopted by or
Policy assumptions
The Reference scenario 2013 includes policies and
measures adopted in the Member States by April
agreed in the first half of 2012 at EU level in such a
way that there is almost no uncertainty with regard to
their adoption. This concerns notably the Energy Efficiency Directive, on which political agreement was
reached by that time. The policies and measures reflected in the Reference 2013 scenario are described
in Table 2.
Technology assumptions are based on extensive literature review by the PRIMES team and have additionally been checked by the Commission Services,
TABLE 2: EU AND OTHER POLICIES INCLUDED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013
EU LEVEL POLICIES
Energy Efficiency
1
Ecodesign Framework Directive
Directive 2005/32/EC
2
Stand-by regulation
Commission Regulation (EC) No 1275/2008
3
Simple Set-to boxes regulation
Commission Regulation (EC) No 107/2009
4
Office/street lighting regulation
Commission Regulation (EC) No 347/2010
5
Lighting Products in the domestic and Tertiary Sectors
Commission Regulation (EU) No 347/2010
regulations
Commission Regulation (EC) No 859/2009
Commission Regulation (EC) No 244/2009
Commission Regulation (EC) No 245/2009
6
External power supplies regulation
Commission Regulation (EC) No 278/2009
7
TVs regulation (+labelling) regulation
Commission Regulation (EC) No 642/2009
8
Electric motors regulation
Commission Regulation (EC)No 640/2009
9
Freezers/refrigerators regulation
Commission Regulation (EC) No 643/2009
10
Household washing machines regulation
Commission Regulation (EU) No 1015/2010
11
Household dishwashers regulations
Commission Regulation (EU) No 1016/2010
12
Industrial fans regulation
Commission Regulation (EU) Regulation No
327/2011
20
13
Air conditioning and comfort fans regulation
Commission Regulation (EU) No 206/2012
14
Circulators regulation
Commission Regulation (EC) No 641/2009
15
Energy Labelling Directive
and delegated Regulations covering:
Directive 2010/30/EU
lamps and luminaires,
supplemented by Delegated Regulations and
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
ASSUMPTIONS
Commission directives
household tumble driers
air conditioners
televisions
household washing machines
household refrigerating appliances
household dishwashers
and Commission Directives covering:
household electric ovens
household combined washer-driers
household electric tumble driers
16
Labelling of tyres regulations
Regulation (EC) No 1222/2009
Commission Regulation (EU) 228/2011
Commission Regulation (EU) 1235/2011
17
Directive on end-use energy efficiency and energy ser-
Directive 2006/32/EC
vices
18
Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
Directive 2010/31/EU and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 244/2012
19
Energy Efficiency Directive
Directive 2012/27/EU
Power generation and energy markets
20
Cogeneration Directive
Directive 2004/8/EC
21
Completion of the internal energy market (including
Directive 2009/73/EC
rd
provisions of the 3 package).
Directive 2009/72/EC
Since March 2011, the Gas and Electricity Directives of
Regulation (EC) No 715/2009,
rd
the 3
package for an internal EU gas and electricity
Regulation (EC) No 714/2009
market are transposed into national law by Members
States and the three Regulations:
Regulation (EC) No 713/2009
- on conditions for access to the natural gas transmission networks
- on conditions for access to the network for crossborder exchange of electricity
- on the establishment of the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER)
are applicable.
22
Energy Taxation Directive
Directive 2003/96/EC
23
Regulation on security of gas supply
Regulation (EU) 994/2010
24
Regulation on market integrity and transparency (RE-
Regulation (EU) 1227/2011
MIT)
25
Nuclear Safety Directive
Council Directive 2009/71/Euratom
26
Nuclear Waste Management Directive
Council Directive 2011/70/Euratom
27
Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from
renewable sources ("RES Directive")
Directive 2009/28 EC
EU Reference scenario 2013
21
ASSUMPTIONS
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
(Cross-sectoral) Climate policies
28
EU ETS directive
Directive 2003/87/EC as amended by Directive 2004/101/EC, Directive 2008/101/EC
and Directive 2009/29/EC and implementing
Decisions,
in
2010/634/EU,
particular
2010/384/EU,
2011/389/EU
(cap),
2011/278/EU, 2011/638/EU
and carbon leakage list)
29
Directive on the geological storage of CO2
Directive 2009/31/EC
30
GHG Effort Sharing Decision
Decision 406/2009/EC
31
F-gas Regulation
Regulation (EC) No 842/2006
(benchmarking
Transport related policies
32
Regulation on CO2 from cars
Regulation (EC) No 443/2009
33
Regulation EURO 5 and 6
Regulation (EC) No 715/2007
34
Fuel Quality Directive
Directive 2009/30/EC
35
Regulation Euro VI for heavy duty vehicles
Regulation (EC) No 595/2009
36
Regulation on CO2 from vans
Regulation (EU) No 510/2011
37
Eurovignette Directive on road infrastructure charging
Directive 2011/76/EU
38
Directive on the Promotion of Clean and Energy Efficient Road Transport Vehicles (in public procurement)
Directive 2009/33/EC
39
End of Life Vehicles Directive
Directive 2000/53/EC
40
Mobile Air Conditioning in motor vehicles Directive
Directive 2006/40/EC
41
Single European Sky II
COM(2008) 389 final
42
Directive on inland transport of dangerous goods
Directive 2008/68/EC
43
Third railway package
Directive 2007/58/EC
44
Directive establishing a single European railway area
(Recast)
Directive 2012/34/EU
45
Port state control Directive
Directive 2009/16/EC
46
Regulation on common rules for access to the interna-
Regulation (EC) No 1072/2009
tional road haulage market
47
Directive concerning social legislation relating to road
Directive 2009/5/EC
transport activities
48
Regulation on ground-handling services at Union airports
Part of "Better airports package"
7
49
Regulation on noise-related operating restrictions at
Part of "Better airports package"
8
Union airports
50
7
8
22
Directive on the sulphur content of marine fuels
Directive 2012/33/EU
Council agreement on general approach (22 March 2012), European Parliament vote (16 April 2013)
Council agreement on general approach (7 June 2012), European Parliament vote (11 December 2012)
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
ASSUMPTIONS
Infrastructure, innovation and RTD and funding
51
TEN-E guidelines
Decision No 1364/2006/EC
52
EEPR (European Energy Programme for Recovery)
Regulation (EC) No 663/2009, ETS Directive
and NER 300 (New entrants reserve) CCS and innovative renewables funding programme
2009/29/EC Article 10a(8), further developed
through Commission Decision 2010/670/EU
53
EU research, development RTD and innovation supth
port (7 framework programme) - theme 6 and its expected continuation under Horizon 2020, Competitiveness and Innovation Programme, e.g. Sustainable Industry Low Carbon scheme SILC I (2011-2013)
54
EU Cohesion Policy – ERDF, ESF and Cohesion Fund
55
TEN-T guidelines
Decision 884/2004/EC and expected continuation – 30 May 2013 trilogue agreement on
revised TEN-T guidelines9 supported by the
Connecting Europe Facility
Environment and other related policies
56
State aid Guidelines for Environmental Protection and
Community guidelines on state aid for envi-
2008 Block Exemption Regulation
ronmental protection
57
Landfill Directive
Directive 99/31/EC
58
EU Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive
Directive 91/271/EEC
59
Waste Framework Directive
Directive 2008/98/EC
60
Nitrate Directive
Directive 91/676/EEC
61
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
e.g. Council Regulations (EC) No 1290/2005,
No
1698/2005,
No
1234/2007
and
No.
73/2009
62
Industrial emissions (Recast of Integrated Pollution and
Directive 2010/75/EU
Prevention Control Directive 2008/1/EC and Large
Combustion Plant Directive 2001/80/EC)
63
Directive on national emissions' ceilings for certain pol-
Directive 2001/81/EC
lutants
64
Water Framework Directive
Directive 2000/60/EC
65
Substances that deplete the ozone layer
Relevant EU legislation implementing the
Montreal protocol, e.g. Regulation (EC) No
1005/2009 as amended by Commission Regulation (EU) 744/2010
9
Source: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-478_en.htm
EU Reference scenario 2013
23
ASSUMPTIONS
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
NATIONAL MEASURES
66
67
Strong national RES policies
National policies on e.g. feed-in tariffs, quota
systems, green certificates, subsidies, favourable tax regimes and other financial incentives
are reflected.
National Energy Efficiency policies
National policies promoting energy efficiency
implementing EU directives and policies, as
well as specific national policies are fully taken
into account
Nuclear, including the replacement of plants
due for retirement, is modelled on its economic merit and in competition with other energy
sources for power generation but also taking
into account the national policies, including
legislative provisions in some MS on nuclear
phase out. Several constraints are therefore
put on the model such as decisions of Member
States not to use nuclear at all (Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta and Portugal).
The nuclear phase-out in Belgium and Germany is respected while lifetime of nuclear
power plants was extended to 60 years in
Sweden.
68
Nuclear
Nuclear investments are possible in Bulgaria,
the Czech Republic, France, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. For modelling the following
plans on new nuclear plants were taken into
account: Finland (1720 MW by 2015), France
(1600 MW by 2020), Lithuania (1400 by 2025),
Poland (1600 MW by 2025), Slovakia (940
MW by 2015).
Member States experts were invited to provide
information on new nuclear investments/programmes in spring 2012 and comments on the PRIMES Reference scenario
results in winter 2013, which had a significant
impact on the modelling results for nuclear
capacity.
24
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
ASSUMPTIONS
OTHER SUPRA-NATIONAL LEVEL POLICIES
69
Energy Star Program (voluntary labelling program)
70
International Maritime Organisation (IMO) International
2008 amendments - revised Annex VI (Pre-
convention for the prevention of pollution from ships
(MARPOL), Annex VI
vention of Air Pollution from ships)
71
WTO Agreement on trade with agricultural products
from Uruguay round fully respected
72
Voluntary agreement to reduce PFC (perfluorocarbons,
potent GHG) emissions in the semiconductor industry
73
International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), Convention on International Civil Aviation, Annex 16, Volume II (Aircraft engine emissions)
74
IMO, Inclusion of regulations on energy efficiency for
IMO Resolution MEPC.203(62)
ships in MARPOL Annex VI
Further assumptions
Discount Rates
The PRIMES model is based on individual decision
making of agents demanding or supplying energy and
on price-driven interactions in markets. The modelling
approach is not taking the perspective of a social
planner and does not follow an overall least cost optimization of the entire energy system in the longterm. Therefore, social discount rates play no role in
determining model solutions. Social discount rates
can however be used for ex post cost evaluations.
On the other hand discount rates pertaining to individual agents play an important role in their decisionmaking. Agents’ economic decisions are usually
based on the concept of cost of capital, which is, depending on the sector, either weighted average cost
of capital (for larger firms) or subjective discount rate
(for individuals or smaller firms). In both cases, the
rate used to discount future costs and revenues involves a risk premium which reflects business practices, various risk factors or even the perceived cost
of lending. The discount rate for individuals also reflects an element of risk averseness.
The discount rates vary across sectors and may differ
substantially from social discount rates (typically 45%) which are used in social long-term planning. In
the PRIMES modelling, the discount rates range from
8% (in real terms) applicable to public transport companies or regulated investments as for example grid
EU Reference scenario 2013
development investments (in the form of weighed
average cost of capital) up to 17.5% applicable to
individuals (households and private passenger
transport, following extensive literature review on discount rates of private consumers). Additional risk
premium rates are applied for some new technologies
at their early stages of development impacting on
perceived costs of technologies.
More specifically, for large power and steam generation companies the cost of capital are 9%. In industry,
services and agriculture the discount rate amounts to
12%. Households have an even higher discount rate
of 17.5%. For transport, the discount rate depends on
the type of operator. Private passenger transport investments (e.g. for cars) are based on a discount rate
of 17.5%, while for trucks and inland navigation ships,
which are considered as investment goods the rate is
12%. Public transport investment is simulated with an
assumed discount rate of 8% for the whole projection
period reflecting the acceptance of longer pay-back
periods than those required in industry or private
households. All these rates are in real terms, i.e. after
deducting inflation.
The decision-making environment of businesses and
households on energy consumption is expected to
change because of the implementation of the Energy
Efficiency directive (EED). The EED will bring about
higher market penetration of Energy Service Compa-
25
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
ASSUMPTIONS
nies (ESCOs) or similar institutions as well as the
reduction of associated risks as perceived by potential clients through quality controls and certifications.
This will entail lower perceived discount rates and is
Exchange rates
All monetary values are expressed in constant prices
of 2010 (without inflation). The dollar exchange rate
reflected in the new Reference scenario. The imple-
for current money changes over time; it starts at the
value of 1.39$/€ in 2009 and is assumed to decrease
mentation of the EED and the widespread penetration
of ESCOs is mirrored by the reduction of discount
to 1.30 $/€ by 2012, at which level it is assumed to
remain for the remaining projection period.
rates by up to 2 percentage points in services and up
to 5.5 percentage points in households. Discount
rates are assumed to decline linearly from their
standard levels in 2010 to reach the policy driven values by 2020 and they remain at these levels throughout the remaining projection period. Thus the discount rates for households are reduced in the context
of the Reference scenario to 14.75% in 2015 and
12% from 2020 onwards throughout the entire projection period. For services the discount rate was progressively decreased to 11% in 2015 and 10% from
2020 onwards (see Figure 9).
FIGURE 9: DISCOUNT RATES USED IN PRIMES
Discount rates
(in real terms)
Power generation
Industry
Tertiary
Public transport
Trucks and inland
navigation
Private cars
Households
Standard discount
rates of PRIMES
9%
12%
12%
8%
Modified discount rates due to EED
2015
9%
12%
11%
8%
2020 - 2050
9%
12%
10%
8%
12%
12%
12%
17.5%
17.5%
17.5%
14.75%
17.5%
12%
Degree days
The degree days, reflecting climate conditions, are
kept constant at the 2005 level, which is higher than
the long term average without assuming any trend
towards further warming. The degree days in 2000
were fairly similar to the ones in 2005. The year 2010
was not considered to be representative in terms of
degree days. Such an approach facilitates comparison of statistics with the projection figures that are
based on climate conditions at the beginning of this
century. This simplification can be also justified by
consistency reasons given the status of model development. A selective inclusion of global warming
trends only for some modelling parts where this
would be feasible (heating degree days) and not for
others (e.g. water supply conditions for power generation, impacts on agriculture) could lead to misleading results. Further research and modelling work is
needed for an inclusion into a reference scenario.
26
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
3.
Results for the EU Reference scenario
2013
The Reference 2013 scenario reflects current trends
in developments in the EU energy system and in the
global energy supply and demand, as described in
detail in section 2, as well as the consequences of
adopted policies presented in the Table 2. In this section, the main effects of these trends and of the implementation of policies listed above are presented,
notably on energy demand, power generation and
emissions developments for the EU28.
The projections were performed by the PRIMES
model and its satellite models: PRIMES-TREMOVE
transport model and PRIMES biomass supply model.
The horizon of the projection is 2050 and results are
available in five-year time steps, for each Member
10
State and for the EU28.
Considering the timeframes of the policies included in
the Reference 2013 scenario, the results are presented distinguishing between three time periods, up
to 2020, 2020-30 and 2030-50. Up to 2020 the main
driver of developments is the achievement of the targets of the 20-20-20 Climate and Energy Package
and the EED. This period is characterised by increased penetration of RES and by strong energy
efficiency improvements. In parallel, until 2020, increasing international fossil fuel prices have considerable implications on energy demand. Moreover, the
reader should keep in mind that the period 2010-2015
is characterised by increased growth rates in energy
demand, as the economy is projected to be recovering from the recent economic crisis (see the macroeconomic data in Appendix 1).
In the decade 2020-30, the Reference scenario 2013
does not incorporate further targets with regard to
RES, but market dynamics, the on-going enabling
policies (such as streamlined authorisation procedures) and technology cost reductions allow for further penetration, albeit at lower growth rates. Also
energy efficiency measures implemented up to 2020
continue to deliver improvements in this period (as
the lifetime of new appliances, renovated buildings
etc. extends beyond the lifetime of the policies). As
RESULTS
with renewables, the improvement rates slow-down in
the absence of specific new policy measures. International fossil fuel prices are high but more stable in
comparison to the previous decade.
The ETS Directive continues to influence the energy
system, as the number of EU-ETS emissions allowances, continues decreasing linearly at 1.74% p.a. as
specified in the directive. This drives strong emission
reductions in particular in the power generation sector, including in the longer term – up to 2050.
Overview of the implications of energy efficiency
policies and measures
The Reference 2013 scenario reflects all the policies
that have been adopted in recent years regarding
energy efficiency in the EU and in MS, including the
Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) (see Table 2). In
the following, we discuss these measures and provide a general overview of their effects on the energy
system, as well as their reflection in the PRIMES
model.
First of all, the EED (via its energy savings obligation)
and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
(EPBD) provisions bring about energy efficiency improvements in buildings through energy-related renovations of the existing building stock as well as improvements of the energy performance characteristics in new constructions. Renovations lead to better
insulation of the buildings (e.g. through window replacement, better façade insulation, roof insulation) or
changes in heating devices, resulting therefore in energy savings at a building level. After 2020, further
energy savings are induced as new households are
built following regional passive house standards.
Regarding heating systems, in the context of the Reference 2013 scenario, the replacement of equipment
is accelerated, as the energy efficiency measures
incorporated induce a more rapid uptake of advanced
technologies, whereas in the absence of such energy
efficiency measures, replacement with new, more
efficient technologies would occur only at the normal
end of lifetime of the heating equipment. Energy efficiency improvements in heating systems are acceler-
10
Summary results for EU28 and for each country are presented in
the Appendix.
EU Reference scenario 2013
ated further through synergies of the different efficiency measures, such as increased technology
27
RESULTS
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
transparency (labelling), efficiency standards (ecodesign), highly efficient technical building systems
reflected in the modelling mechanisms, where economic agents are per se informed correctly about the
(EPBD), professional support through energy service
companies (ESCOs) and energy efficiency obliga-
prevailing and to some extent future prices., depending on the sector (there is less foresight in final de-
tions on energy distributors and/or retail sellers which
mand sectors with shorter equipment lifetimes than in
are therefore obliged to achieve significant energy
savings at their customer sites, etc. The same effi-
power generation).
ciency improvements apply for cooling/ventilation,
water heating and lighting.
The energy efficiency policies mentioned above
The PRIMES model can simulate different energy
efficiency policies with different modelling techniques.
costs (investment costs minus perceived benefits)
including risk factors (e.g. risk related to maintenance
The model-specific instruments used affect the con-
costs or technical reliability of advanced technologies
text and conditions under which individuals, in the
modelling represented by stylized agents per sector,
if chosen prior to fully established commercial maturity of such technologies). Such changes influence in
make their decisions on energy consumption and the
related equipment.
turn the mix of different technologies delivering the
same type of energy services. As in reality, the mod-
An example of such modelling instruments is the
modification of model parameters in order to mirror
technology performance or the effects of building
codes that are determined jointly in the process of
calibrating the interdependent model output to the
observations from the relevant statistical year (in this
exercise: 2010). Another technique is modification of
assumptions about technical and economic performance of future technologies that are available for
future choices by consumers within the model projection.
Furthermore, there are specific modelling instruments
for capturing the effects of measures that promote or
impose efficiency performance standards (BAT, ecodesign) and become increasingly important over time
as new items penetrate the market while old items
are getting out of use. Such modelling instruments
relate to individual technologies or groups of technologies and modify the perception of associated costs
by the modelled agents or influence the portfolio of
technologies that will be available for consumer
choice. Another type of measures are those which
improve consumer information through education,
labelling, correct metering and billing, energy audits
and technology support schemes aiming at inciting
consumers to select more efficient technologies.
Such measures are dealt with through the modelling
instruments discussed in this section or are directly
28
modify modelling parameters. This applies for example for the factors that affect perception of net energy
elling reflects the existence of mixes of technologies
and appliances for the same purpose with different
energy consumption and other characteristics, for
which economic actors have different perceptions
regarding costs. The factors affecting perception of
costs vary by equipment type. The efficiency policy
induced changes in the Reference scenario for
household appliances lead to perceived cost decreases in the more advanced technology options of
between 12 and 20% compared to the costs that
would have been perceived in the absence of the energy efficiency policies.
The penetration of ESCOs as explicitly incited by the
EED leads to an environment with reduced risks for
the consumers engaging in energy efficiency renovations, which can include both changes in the building
structure and changes in the energy equipment. This
is represented in the modelling by reduced discount
rates for certain sectors, mirroring the changes in the
decision making conditions and constraints of e.g.
households and services. Consequently, the (high)
subjective discount rates which prevail in capitalbudgeting decisions when such decisions are taken
solely by individuals, facing high information costs,
are reduced, moving closer to business interest rates.
In fact, the involvement of ESCO and the obligation
for energy distributors and retail sellers to facilitate
energy efficiency investment at the premises of final
customers enable individuals to make more cost-
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
effective choices thanks to the professional support of
e.g. ESCOs and utilities that are obliged to achieve
ings, as well as the introduction of more efficient appliances and better management of existing equip-
energy savings with their customers. In this way lower discount rates reduce the high weight that initial
ment in final energy use sectors. For the modelling of
the energy savings obligation or alternative measures
investment costs have compared with future energy
it has been assumed that the possible exemptions for
cost savings. In addition, these measures also induce
lower technical and financial risk, hence reducing the
ETS installations and transport are used.
perceived costs of new technologies and saving investments, (see also point above on perception of
Energy efficiency improvements also occur on the
costs). The discount rates used for the Reference
scenario 2013 are reported in the introductory section.
energy supply side, through the promotion of investments in CHP and in distributed steam and heat networks. These investments are combined with incentives on the consumer side to shift towards heating
through district heating, both in the residential and the
11
Another key modelling tool are efficiency values
(EVs) reflecting a variety of broad and sometimes un-
tertiary sectors .
specified instruments that bring about efficiency improvements. In the most concrete form these values
Improvements in the network tariff system and the
represent the price of hypothetical White Certificates,
reflecting the marginal costs of reaching energy savings obligations, e.g. for energy distributors and retail
sellers regarding energy efficiency at final customers
sites. In the Reference scenario, these values represent the implementation of the EED energy savings
obligations in domestic and service sectors, specific
building renovation policy efforts or a large range of
other pertinent measures, such as energy audits, energy management systems, good energy advice to
consumers on the various benefits of energy efficiency investment and better practices, targeted energy
efficiency education, significant voluntary agreements, etc.
In modelling terms therefore, the PRIMES model includes a number of instruments to reflect policies
leading to efficiency improvements.
regulations regarding the design and operation of gas
and electricity infrastructure are also required in the
context of the EED; moreover, the EED requires MS
and regulators to encourage and promote participation of demand side response in wholesale and retail
markets. In this context, the Reference 2013 scenario
assumes that intelligent metering is gradually introduced in the electricity system, enabling consumers
to more actively manage their energy use. This allows for demand responses so as to decrease peak
and over-charging situations, which generally imply
higher losses in the power grids. Thus, efficiency is
also improved as a result of the intelligent operation
of the systems.
Finally, some policies and measures that do not target energy efficiency directly, but for example target
emissions reduction, lead to significant additional energy efficiency benefits. Among these policies are the
ETS Directive (for details see section on ETS below),
The EED includes specific public procurement provisions which translate into a 3% p.a. refurbishment
the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD), and the CO 2
standards for cars and vans. These policies drive en-
rate in the modelling and induce multiplier effects, as
the public sector assumes an exemplary role, i.e. pri-
ergy efficiency improvements along with fuel switching as a means of achieving reduction of emissions.
vate consumers are imitating the public sector energy
efficiency actions. Moreover, energy efficiency obliga-
The ESD defines legally binding national GHG emission targets in 2020 compared with 2005 for sectors
tions on energy distributors and retail sellers, as well
as alternative policy measures (e.g. financing, fiscal,
voluntary, and information measures) required by MS
according to the EED, drive further investment choices in improving thermal integrity of houses and build-
EU Reference scenario 2013
11
This incurs some rebound effects, e.g. houses connected to
district heating generally consume more heat than houses which
use individual (non-central) heating equipment, as district heating
is more cost efficient; such features are automatically integrated in
this price responsive energy modelling
29
RESULTS
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
not covered by the EU ETS, ranging between -20%
and +20%, which shall lead to a EU-wide emission
son with the primary energy consumption (defined as
gross inland consumption minus non-energy use)
reduction by 10%. To achieve the targets, it also defines for each country a linear emission path between
projections of the Baseline 2007 scenario, which has
been used as the base for the energy savings objec-
2013 and 2020 which has to be satisfied each year
tive of the 20-20-20 climate and energy package. The
but is subject to a number of important flexibility
mechanisms, e.g. a carry-forward of emission alloca-
projected decrease reflects the aggregate effect on
energy consumption of all the policies that are includ-
tions, transfers between Member States and use of
international credits. It turned out that for the EU as a
ed in the Reference 2013 scenario.
whole the -10% target is achieved without the need
for modelling additional specific policy incentives.
TABLE 3: EFFECT OF POLICIES ADOPTED IN THE
REFERENCE 2013 SCENARIO ON ENERGY
With regard to the national target trajectories, in gen-
2020
2030
Primary energy consumption
-16.8%
-21.0%
- % change from Baseline 2007*
Primary energy consumption
-2.5%
-1.3%
- % change from Reference 2011
Gross inland consumption
-9.2%
-12.1%
- % change from 2005**
Primary energy consumption
-9.9%
-13.0%
- % change from 2005
* Time horizon of Baseline 2007 scenario was year 2030
** Year 2005 was the peak year for energy consumption in the EU
eral, flexibility both over time and between Member
States via the use of transfers has been assumed to
reflect the use of economically effective options to
meet the targets while respecting the clear Member
12
State indications on flexibility limitations .
For the CO2 standards for cars and vans, it is assumed, based on current reduction trends, that the
2020 CO2 targets for new vehicles set out in the regulations are achieved and remain constant afterwards
(for cars 95gCO2/km, for vans 147gCO2/km).
Policies on promoting RES also indirectly lead to energy efficiency gains; in statistical terms many RES,
such as hydro, wind and solar PV, have an efficiency
factor of 1; thus, the penetration of RES in all sectors,
in particular in power generation, induces energy savings. Other measures that foster energy efficiency are
financial instruments, in particular excise type taxes
(including those reflecting emissions); they are directly modelled in PRIMES allowing for the full reflection
of the effects of energy taxation and other financial
instruments on end user prices and energy consump-
13
CONSUMPTION
2050
1.2%
-11.1%
-11.8%
General overview of RES supporting measures
and the evolution of RES indicators
The Reference 2013 scenario starts from the assumption that the EU energy system evolves so that
the legally binding targets on RES (20% share of
gross final energy consumption from RES by 2020
and 10% specifically in the transport sector) are
achieved. In parallel, the framework for the penetration of RES significantly improves in the projection, as
the Reference 2013 scenario incorporates known
direct RES aids (e.g. feed-in tariffs) and other RES
enabling policies, such as priority access, grid development and streamlined authorisation procedures.
Obviously, RES penetration is also facilitated by the
ETS (depending on carbon prices).
As indicated in the Member States' submissions to
tion.
the EC, the national RES 2020 targets are generally
expected to be achieved at the Member State level,
Overall, the energy savings achieved in the Refer-
including only very limited recourse to the cooperation mechanism for those few countries that
ence 2013 scenario in 2020 amount to 16.8% (Table
3) using the metric defined for the 20% energy savings target. This figure is obtained through compari-
have not excluded making use of it. Drawing on current Member States plans to meet their legal obligations, the Reference 2013 scenario takes into ac-
12
Given the projected EU-wide compliance, it has been assumed
that transfers between Member States will be available at very low
prices just covering administrative costs, making it economically
unattractive to resort to the permitted use of international credits.
The relatively small costs and benefits of these emission transfers
have been included in the total system costs for 2020.
30
count the Member States projections on the trajectories of the RES shares by sector (RES-H&C for heat13
Primary energy consumption is defined as gross inland consumption minus non-energy use.
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
ing and cooling, RES-T for transport and RES-E for
electricity) as expressed in the respective National
Overall, at the EU level, the RES share in gross final
energy consumption in 2020 reaches 20.9% (Figure
Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs).
10).
The PRIMES model has included detailed modelling
Beyond 2020, no additional RES targets are set.
However, RES enabling policies, the ETS and some
direct aids (depending on technologies and Member
State) continue; the direct aids are assumed to phase
out at a pace depending on RES technology. These
assumptions - in combination with technology progress (capital cost reduction due to learning effects) lead to further increase in RES penetration. In power
generation particularly, the continuation of the ETS
has a significant effect; until 2030, the share of RES
in power generation reaches 43%, and 50% by 2050.
In transport the increasing RES share is due to further penetration of biofuels and moderate electrification. Overall, RES in gross final energy consumption
account for 24% and 29% in 2030 and 2050 respectively.
of Member State policies representing a variety of
economic support schemes, including feed-in-tariffs.
A survey has been conducted for the purpose of the
Reference 2013 scenario to correctly represent current incentive schemes by Member State, including
their budget limitations when these exist. The existing
incentives have been then extrapolated to 2020 (if the
Member State does not include provisions up to
2020) in a conservative manner. The RES investments resulting from the overall policy and economic
context as well as incentives have been projected
assuming that investors evaluate project specific Internal Rates of Return including the financial incentives and decide upon investing accordingly. The projected RES investments implied directly for the financial incentives are considered as given by the market
model which decides upon the remaining potentially
necessary investments (among all power generation
technologies) based on pure economic considerations with a view to meeting the RES obligations.
Special fuel and electricity price elements (fees) are
accounted for in the model to recover fully all the
costs for the RES which are calculated through the
incentives and the contracting obligations over time.
The model further keeps track of the RES technology
vintages as projected and the outstanding fee is
raised throughout the economic lifetime of the thus
built power capacity, therefore also beyond 2020. For
Member States which do not achieve their RES target
through direct incentive policies, an additional instrument is included in the modelling the so-called RESvalue which is a dual variable for RES - introduced to
meet the targets by Member State. The value represents yet unknown policies to provide incentives for
RES such as further legislative facilitations, easier
site availability or grid access, or even direct financial
incentives, etc. The costs related to investments induced through the RES-value are fully recovered
through electricity prices.
EU Reference scenario 2013
Although direct incentives are phased out, in power
generation the investments in RES continue beyond
2020 due to three main factors: (1) continued learning
by doing of technologies including continued RDI especially for innovative RES, (2) the ETS price and (3)
extensions in the grid and improvement in marketbased balancing of RES as well as streamlined authorization and priority access. The feed-in tariffs and
other country specific financial incentives are assumed to be phased out beyond 2020 with the exception of incentives for innovative technologies such as
tidal, geothermal, solar thermal, solar PV and remote
off-shore wind where the phase out is more gradual.
As to the RES-values, they steeply decrease beyond
2020, in the absence of specific RES obligations after
2020; therefore RES investments beyond 2020 are
mainly driven by ETS carbon prices and are facilitated by non-financial supporting policies.
The learning by doing of RES technologies continues
throughout the projection period and allows for some
of the RES technologies to become economically
competitive already after 2020.
The ETS prices, which rise considerably towards the
end of the projection period (see next section), act as
an incentive and as the model simulates perfect foresight, the investments are spread throughout the projection period.
31
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
A further important element concerns the changes in
the electricity transmission system and the power
market. Through the improvements in the grid and
the Ten Years Network Development Plan of ENTSO-E the grid is better suited for up-taking higher
shares of RES. Furthermore, it is assumed in the
PRIMES modelling that the management of flows due
to the implementation of the internal market changes.
The EU target model is assumed to be successfully
implemented. The Reference scenario modelling includes flow based allocation of interconnection capacities, assuming a market model purely basing
trade on market forces throughout the EU internal
energy market with perfectly operating market coupling across all participating countries. This market is
assumed to operate successfully mainly beyond
2020. It implies that the balancing of RES occurs in a
very cooperative and cost-efficient manner avoiding
excessive investments in peak devices that would be
resulting if national perspectives in balancing were
persisting. Therefore the market improvements and
the EU-wide market coupling allows for rather low
balancing costs for RES, thus easing their market
penetration.
Overview of the EU ETS and projections on
carbon prices
Due to these changes in the system, the projected
narily estimated for the modelling as around 1750 Mt
CO2 cumulatively.
penetration of RES in power generation continues
beyond 2020, albeit at a decelerated pace compared
to the time period before 2020, and allows the share
of RES in electricity (RES-E) to reach 50% by 2050.
14
FIGURE 10: RES INDICATORS AT THE EU LEVEL
aviation, further industrial process emissions and certain industrial non-CO2 GHGs. The latter are integrated based on results of GAINS non-CO2 modelling
(see section on non-CO2 emission results) and
PRIMES then ensures consistent modelling of the
complete ETS. The annual volume of available EU
ETS allowances (quoted as allowances hereafter)
following the Directive provisions on the emissions
cap, is assumed to decrease by 1.74% p.a. from
2013 throughout the projection period, except for aviation for which the cap remains stable from 2013 onwards at 95% of average 2004-6 emission levels.
Aviation is modelled in the scope covered by EUROSTAT and therefore PRIMES based on fuels sold in
the EU, which corresponds to domestic and outgoing
international flights only.
International credits, priced at very low levels, are
expected to be used in the period until 2020, and
reaching the maximum permissible amount, prelimi-
The assumed cumulative emission cap 2008 to 2050
including the permissible international credits is
around 69500 Mt. The different allowance allocation
rules (auctioning, free allowances based on benchmarks) for the different sectors foreseen in the legis-
60%
50%
50%
40%
30%
The EU ETS is modelled in its amended scope (third
trading period from 2013 onwards), including also
Overall RES
share (%)
lation, and including the provisions for sectors at risk
of carbon leakage, are reflected in the modelling.
RES-E (%)
35%
29%
27%
20%
RES-H&C (%)
21%
10%
10%
14%
RES-T (%)
0%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ETS prices are endogenously derived so as the cumulative ETS cap is met; the continuously decreasing
number of available allowances combined with the
significant allowance surplus which is only projected
to decrease after 2020 (see below) suggest that the
ETS price will follow only a slowly increasing trend
until 2025 and stronger increases thereafter; it is projected to reach 10€’10/tCO2 in 2020, 35€’10/tCO2 in
2030 and 100€‘10/tCO2 in 2050 (Figure 11). The
PRIMES model simulates emission reductions in ETS
sectors as a response to current and future ETS pric-
14
32
Figures calculated according to the provision of RES Directive.
es (Figure 12), taking into account risk-averse behav-
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
ior of market agents which leads to banking of allowances; perfect foresight of the carbon price progres-
FIGURE 11: PROJECTION OF THE ETS PRICE
120
100
100
sion in the period 2020-50 and that no borrowing from
the future is permitted. Increasing ETS prices induce
78
€'10/tCO2
80
a switch in power generation towards the use of low
57
60
and zero carbon fuels or technologies (e.g. RES and
CCS). Moreover, the increase in the cost of energy,
40
reflecting the increasing ETS prices, supports energy
efficiency and fuel switching in the ETS sectors. Fi-
0
nally, increasing ETS prices indirectly influence energy efficiency in demand side sectors as well, since
RESULTS
35
20
14
10
5
15
FIGURE 12: AVAILABLE ALLOWANCES
AND
ETS GHG
EMISSIONS PROJECTION
expenditures for ETS allowances are passed through
3000
to consumer prices, notably in electricity prices.
2500
With the current and projected low level of the ETS
Mt CO2
2000
prices, the ETS emissions target for 2020 is achieved
as there is also a large amount of additional policies
1500
Emissions
1000
500
and because the economic crisis substantially re-
0
duced the industrial production as well as power demand and thus GHG emissions. The projection of
Interpolated values shown in faint color
FIGURE 13: PROJECTION OF ALLOWANCES SURPLUS
tion of the ETS legislation; should this not to be the
case, ETS prices would drop considerably below the
3000
2500
projected levels in the short term.
Mt CO2
2000
In the longer term, the trend of very low carbon prices
is reversed; beginning in 2030 and throughout the
1000
500
period to 2050, the level of the ETS price is increasing significantly. This is the consequence of decreas-
ply factors, namely of the delayed technology developments of CCS, public acceptance problems with
nuclear energy and CO2 storage, the updated offshore wind cost assumptions and phasing out of RES
support as well as the trends in world fuel prices,
where a decoupling of oil and gas prices takes place,
with gas prices remaining in the longer term at relatively stable levels.
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2008
0
ing allowances supply following the implementation of
the linear reduction factor that reduces the cap substantially over time and a combination of energy sup-
1500
2010
ETS prices is based on the assumptions that actors
are risk-averse and have strong trust in the continua-
Allowances
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
implemented, particularly RES support policies but
also the EED, which influence also the ETS sectors,
Interpolated values shown in faint color
Phase II of the ETS has seen a rapid build-up of an
allowances surplus which is banked into phase III,
resulting from lower than expected emissions caused
by the economic crisis unfolding as of 2008 and the
early use of international credits. This surplus of allowances continues to increase in the short term, although there is economic recovery in the time period
up to 2020. Together with the indicated drivers and
complementary policies, risk-averse behaviour contributes to further banking of allowances until 2020
15
EU Reference scenario 2013
Allowances include the permissible use of international credits.
33
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
16
(Figure 13) . Beyond this time period, the gradually
increasing ETS prices lead to a progressive use of
nuclear technologies would operate with lower efficiencies.
previously banked allowances, which results in an
almost complete exhaustion of the projected surplus
The main drivers of decreasing GIC are the developments in final energy demand. These reflect the implemented energy efficiency policies that include,
among others, the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED),
Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD),
the Eco-design Directive and a host of implementing
Regulations for specific products, CO2 emissions
standards for light duty vehicles etc. Following existing legislation until 2020, the assumed implementation of these measures is delivering significant energy
efficiency improvements with effects going also beyond 2020. High international energy prices, as well
as the relatively low growth rates projected for the
energy-intensive industries, further reduce energy
consumption. Beyond 2030, in the absence of additional policies on efficiency, final energy consumption
follows an increasing pace, albeit slow. It is thus visible that the developments of the energy system in the
decades 2010-20 and 2020-30 will have already set
the ground for an economy with lower energy intensity. Finally, the ETS continues to indirectly support
energy efficiency in the ETS sectors, throughout the
projection period.
17
the ETS price has increased substantially .
Energy consumption
The Reference 2013 scenario is characterized by
accelerating energy efficiency improvements, in particular until 2020 and continuing throughout the remaining projection period – as demonstrated by the
declining energy intensity of GDP. Gross inland consumption (GIC) and GDP growth decouple (Figure
14), a trend that is enhanced by the newly introduced
legislation especially on energy efficiency and revised
assumptions about economic growth. As becomes
apparent in Figure 14, the shift from past increasing
trends of energy consumption is occurring in the period 2005-10, where apart from relevant legislation, the
economic crisis also has a downward effect on energy consumption. The downward trend on energy consumption commenced before the onset of the economic crisis, with EU energy consumption having
peaked in 2006. Despite the gradual economic recovery after the crisis, GIC does not resume growth,
instead it continuously decreases until 2035 and
demonstrates a moderate increase thereafter, yet
staying well below the 2010 level.
The projection indicates a shift in the fuel mix of GIC
over time towards renewable energy forms (Figure
16). This also contributes towards lower energy intensity since many RES technologies (e.g. hydro,
solar, wind) have, in statistical terms, an efficiency
factor of 1 thus, the penetration of RES in all sectors,
in particular in power generation, induces a further
reduction in GIC, given that alternative fossil fuel or
FIGURE 14: GIC IN RELATION TO GDP
24
22
2,000
GIC
20
1,800
1,600
18
1,400
16
14
1,200
12
1,000
10
8
800
GDP
GIC (Mtoe)
es (perfect foresight), banked allowances are used
particularly in the end of the projection period where
GDP (in trillion Euro'10)
by 2050. As emitters perceive the future carbon pric-
600
6
4
400
2
200
0
0
16
The absolute amount and time profile of the presented surplus is
valid for the described and partly simplifying modelling assumptions taken, for example due to the cut-off date and given that the
model proceeds in five year steps and the yearly data is based on
interpolations and estimates. Other Commission analyses may
therefore present different and more up to date results.
17
ETS back-loading is not included in the modelling as no corresponding legislation exists at the time of this analysis.
34
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
18
FIGURE 15: ENERGY INTENSITY PROJECTIONS BY SECTOR
Energy intensity indicators (2010=100)
120
100
Entire economy (GIC
over GDP)
80
Transport (Energy
on GDP)
60
Residential (Energy
on Private Income)
40
Industry (Energy on
Value added)
Tertiary (Energy on
Value added)
20
RESULTS
In addition to the considerable energy savings, the
projection also indicates a switch in the fuel mix of
final energy consumption over time, in favour of renewable energy forms (Figure 17). This shift is driven
by the binding targets on RES and energy efficiency
policies until 2020 with effects continuing until 2030,
and by the ETS even beyond 2030. The share of oil
decreases, but remains at a relatively high level as
transportation is projected to remain dominated by oil.
Consumption of solid fuels declines considerably
throughout the projection period.
FIGURE 18: TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR
Electricity demand by sector (TWh)
4500
Energy branch
4000
3500
FIGURE 16: GROSS INLAND CONSUMPTION
1800
1600
1400
Mtoe
1200
10
Natural gas
Tertiary
20
2000
24
6
6
3
7
4
27
27
28
27
25
25
26
31
33
30
29
1500
12
Households
13
25
24
500
25
Industry
(incl.electricity
for process CCS)
0
16
27
2010 2020 2030 2050
33
Oil
Solids
1000
24
35
200
0
17
12
600
400
6
7
3
13
Electricity
(net
imports)
Nuclear
6
9
2
2500
Renewable
energy
forms
1000
800
Transport
6
3000
Shares in %
2000
Shares in %
Transmission
distribution
losses
5000
0
14
32
Average annual growth rates
of electricity demand (%)
31
11
8
Gross generation
2010 2020 2030 2050
Transmission distribution losses
Energy branch
FIGURE 17: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
1400
Transport
7
5
1200
10
11
11
5
5
5
22
24
Households
Renewables
21
1000
28
Mtoe
Electricity
600
Gas
400
200
Oil
Shares in %
Steam Distrib.
800
Industry (incl.electricity for process CCS)
-3.0
23
22
40
36
21
34
21
32
Solids
0
Tertiary
4
4
4
3
Industry
(incl.electricity
for process
CCS)
'40-'50
0.5
-2.0
-1.0
Households
Tertiary
Transport
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Energy branch
Transmission
distribution
losses
Gross
generation
1.1
0.6
1.2
1.6
0.9
0.8
'30-'40
0.0
1.5
0.8
2.0
1.0
1.2
0.9
'20-'30
-0.1
1.2
1.0
3.4
-0.8
1.1
0.7
'10-'20
0.7
0.1
0.1
2.8
-1.9
0.2
0.2
'00-'10
-0.2
1.7
2.9
-0.6
0.2
-1.0
1.0
2010 2020 2030 2050
18
The ratio between the energy use and GDP is influenced not
only by energy efficiency in transport but also by the evolution of
the volume of transport activity to GDP. Therefore, in Figure 24 the
relationship between transport energy consumption and transport
activity is presented in addition to the relationship between
transport energy consumption and GDP.
EU Reference scenario 2013
In final energy demand, electrification is a persisting
trend (Figure 18). This is due to two effects: a shift
towards electricity for heating and cooling (due to
higher demand for air conditioning and the introduction of electric heat pumps) and a continued increase
of electric appliances in the residential and the tertiary sector (mainly IT, leisure and communication
appliances). It is also the result of CO 2 standards for
light duty vehicles and further electrification of rail –
leading to higher uptake of electricity in the transport
35
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
CONSUMPTION IN THE INDUSTRY SECTOR
Average annual change of energy consumption
per unit of physical industrial output (%)
per unit of physical industrial
2010-00 2020-10 2030-20
output (%)
Iron and steel
-1.42
-0.93
-0.53
Non ferrous metals
-2.02
-0.54
-0.40
Chemicals
-3.30
-0.68
-1.20
Non metallic minerals
-0.88
-0.44
-0.46
Paper and pulp
0.50
-0.79
-0.94
Food, drink and tobacco
-0.60
-0.57
-0.99
Engineering
-1.40
-0.51
-0.71
Textiles
-3.22
-0.17
-0.89
Other industries
-0.98
-0.74
-0.87
350
300
Other industries
Textiles
250
Engineering
36
Paper and pulp
200
150
Non metallic minerals
Chemicals
100
Non ferrous metals
50
Iron and steel
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
0
FIGURE 20: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR BY ENERGY FORM
350
8
Renewables
250
Heat/Steam
distr.
200
Electricity
150
Gas
5
11
6
13
14
6
7
31
31
SHares in %
300
Mtoe
32
30
31
30
100
33
29
Oil
50
Solids
11
10
8
12
12
11
8
9
2050
2045
2040
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0
1995
These trends are accompanied by a decline in the
use of coal and oil, to the benefit of renewable energy
forms (biomass and waste) and to a lesser extent
electricity (Figure 20). This fuel shift is driven by the
mandatory emission reductions that industrial activities should achieve in the context of the Integrated
Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) and the
Large Combustion Plant Directives (LCP), as well as
because of national action for complying with the
binding national targets of the Effort Sharing Decision
(ESD) in the short-term (concerning the non-ETS industries) and the increasing ETS prices (concerning
the ETS industries) mainly in the long-term. Switch to
biomass and waste is also driven by the upward trajectory of fossil fuel prices and is compatible with the
need for resource-efficiency, which will be one of the
drivers of global competitiveness. Finally, the provi-
-0.30
-0.39
-0.77
-0.03
-0.54
-0.52
-0.46
-0.51
-0.49
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Food, drink and tobacco
Overall, the trend on energy consumption is clearly
upward for the period until 2015, following the recovery from the economic crisis; beyond 2015 and
throughout the remaining projection period, energy
efficiency improvements offset the effects from the
growth of sectorial activity, and as a result energy
consumption appears to change only moderately over
time (Figure 19).
2050-30
FIGURE 19: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE
2035
Industrial sector
The activity of the industrial sector is projected to recover from the current crisis and follow an increasing
pace in the future, with the non-energy intensive sectors growing faster. This implies that energy consumption of the sector will grow at a slower rate relative to the activity of the sector. In parallel, following
the trends of previous years, energy efficiency of production processes in the sector improves over time in
order for the sector to remain globally competitive,
with higher gains observed in the period until 2030
(Table 4) supported by the implementation of corresponding policies.
TABLE 4: AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE OF ENERGY
Mtoe
In the following section, we present in detail the
trends on final energy consumption by sector.
sions on cogeneration in the EED in addition to the
Cogeneration Directive promote the penetration of
highly efficient cogeneration and the use of waste
heat for steam generation in industrial sites.
2030
sector. In the period until 2020, when energy efficiency policies are being implemented, the growth rate of
electricity demand is less than 0.5% per year up to
2020; thereafter, without specific energy efficiency
policies the electricity demand growth rate becomes
almost 1% per year.
2025
RESULTS
2010 2020 2030 2050
Residential sector
Energy demand in the residential sector is projected
to stabilize in the short term. After 2015 and throughout the remaining projection period, final residential
energy demand remains below the level of 2010. This
is attributable to the fact that the portfolio of policies
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
and regulatory provisions (notably EPBD) for the residential sector that is assumed in the Reference 2013
scenario is very rich, and drives considerable energy
efficiency savings.
RESULTS
FIGURE 21: IMPROVEMENTS IN EFFICIENCY OF THE ENERGY
EQUIPMENT IN THE
COMPARED TO 2005
RESIDENTIAL
SECTOR
% change from 2005
62
In general, energy efficiency in the residential sector
(as well as the tertiary sector) can be improved by:
45
28
- using more efficient energy equipment (e.g. lighting,
17
electric appliances, heating and cooling appliances),
Heating
thermal integrity of buildings), or
the implementation of relevant policies. These policies include notably the EED including the savings
obligation on distribution companies and retail sellers,
the provision on the exemplary role of public authorities as well as all the other provisions stimulating
more energy efficient behaviour. In addition, ecodesign standards as well as energy performance of
2020
2030
2050
The main reason behind the continuous electrification
of the sector, as demonstrated in Figure 22, is the
increasing penetration of electric appliances and their
quality improvements. This concerns mainly “black”
appliances (mobile phones, TVs, PCs etc.). At the
same time eco-design regulations drive significant
energy savings in specific electricity uses; the average efficiency of appliances and lighting improves by
approximately 25% in 2020 and by 45% in 2030, relative to 2005.
FIGURE 22: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN THE RESIDENTIAL
SECTOR
buildings requirements as well as "soft" measures,
such as public campaigns play a role along with
By energy use
350
measures improving transparency for allowing more
energy efficient choices (Labelling Directives).
Electric
Appliances
300
Mtoe
Water heating
150
Cooking
13
7
1
7
1
23
1
13
1
12
7
2
60
7
4
54
Heating
0
2010 2020 2030
2050
13
14
By energy form
2005. Energy consumed for heating purposes drops
to 2000 levels already by 2020 and further decreases
350
thereafter (Figure 22). Regarding the use of different
250
Heat/Steam
distr.
200
Electricity
Renewables
Mtoe
300
8
150
Gas
16
16
8
8
25
28
8
23
36
38
37
100
37
35
Oil
50
14
ally, the use of heating oil decreases to the benefit of
gas, especially beyond 2030, in part because of the
64
17
50
mand for heating and cooling purposes decreasing by
8% in 2020, 12% in 2030 and 17% in 2050 relative to
is partly the reason of the increasing shares of electricity consumption in the residential sector. Addition-
1
Cooling
improving thermal integrity of houses and efficiency
of heating appliances, with overall final energy de-
energy forms, increased efficiency requirements drive
a shift towards the use of electric heat pumps, which
14
2
14
65
100
EPBD and the EED), they drive investment choices
12
Lighting
250
200
Regarding the energy efficiency obligations on buildings and strict building codes (included both in the
Specific electricity uses
Shares in %
ment across the EU which is related to the effects of
Cooling
Shares in %
In the Reference 2013 scenario, there is a general
improvement in the efficiency of energy using equip-
26
15
4
- upgrading energy characteristics of buildings (e.g.
- inducing changes in energy consuming behaviour.
26
46
0
Solids
11
9
6
3
2
2
2010 2020 2030 2050
4
relatively low natural gas prices (in comparison to oil).
EU Reference scenario 2013
37
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
Tertiary sector (services and agriculture)
Projections of final energy demand in the tertiary sector follow the same trends as for the residential sector; energy consumption decline strongly between
2010 and 2020, followed by a decade of moderate
decrease and a slight increase after 2030. Energy
efficiency gains brought about by eco-design policies,
energy efficiency policies stemming notably from obligations under the EED and policies on the energy
performance of buildings, are very significant, and
over-compensate the effects of increasing sectorial
activity up to 2030, driving final energy demand below
2010 peak levels throughout the entire projection period. Marked efficiency progress is observed both for
heating and for specific electricity consumption, in
particular in the medium term (2020-30), driving energy consumption downwards in the period 2010-30,
contrasting past increasing trends (Figure 23). Beyond 2030, where no additional energy saving policies are implemented, energy consumption resumes
an increasing, albeit slow, pace of growth.
FIGURE 23: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN THE TERTIARY
SECTOR
By energy use
200
15
Electric
appliances
180
3
160
Agricultural uses
100
80
Other heat uses
Shares in %
120
Mtoe
14
Lighting
140
19
6
19
2
15
17
8
22
27
2
15
17
10
2
14
16
11
60
Cooling
40
43
34
30
Heating
0
2010 2020 2030 2050
By energy form
180
Renewables
2
7
Heat/Steam
distr.
41
5
7
6
7
6
6
Mtoe
Electricity
100
80
Gas
Shares in %
45
120
52
58
60
26
22
Oil
19
19
20
0
Freight transport follows a similar trend to passenger
activity after 2030, resulting from the slow-down of
GDP growth as well as from the shift of economic
activities towards services and limits to distant sourcing and off-shoring.
Road transport is expected to maintain its dominant
role in passenger transport by 2050, despite growing
Passenger cars alone would represent about 67% of
total passenger transport activity in 2050 although
their modal share would decrease by about 7 percentage points between 2010 and 2050. As previously mentioned, the growth slowdown for passenger
cars activity could be explained by the car ownership
Solids
Member States but also by the high congestion levels, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the ageing of
the EU population. Transport activity of buses and
coaches and powered 2-wheelers would grow at
29
40
Beyond 2030, the activity of passenger transport continues to grow albeit at slow rates, as a result of stagnant and after 2040 decreasing population, deceleration in GDP growth and saturation of passenger car
demand.
which is close to saturation levels in many EU15
160
140
Transport sector
The activity of the transport sector is growing significantly with the highest growth rates occurring from
2010 to 2030, driven by developments in economic
activity. This concerns both passenger and freight
transport. Freight transport in particular is growing at
higher rates than passenger transport, following more
closely the GDP developments.
at lower pace relative to other modes (0.6% p.a.).
39
20
200
Electrification of the tertiary sector is very significant.
The considerable increase in electricity consumption
concerns primarily the use of electric appliances and
the use of electricity for heating and cooling purposes
(heat pumps). The use of heating oil and gas follows
a decreasing trend, which is steeper in the period up
to 2030, attributable to energy efficiency policies.
Throughout the projection period, gas substitutes oil
for heating purposes.
15
13
10
2
1
1
1
2010 2020 2030 2050
slightly higher rates than passenger cars activity by
2050, 0.7% p.a. and 1.1% p.a., respectively. Overall,
the share of road transport (including buses and
coaches and powered 2-wheelers in addition to passenger cars) in total passenger transport activity
38
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
would go down from about 84% in 2010 to 76% in
2050.
Air transport is projected to be the highest growing of
all passenger transport modes, going up by 133%
between 2010 and 2050 (2.1% p.a.), mainly due to
the large increase of international trips (e.g. to emerging economies in Asia). Higher potential for air traffic
growth (3.1% p.a. for 2010-2050), including for international holiday trips, is expected in EU12 MS due to
their less mature markets and faster growing GDP
per capita. Aviation activity in EU15 would increase at
a lower rate compared to EU12 due to weaker growth
of GDP per capita and the available capacity at the
airports. Overall, air transport is expected to increase
its modal share by about 5 percentage points, from
8% in 2010 to 13% in 2050, and become the second
RESULTS
moderate increase at EU level (0.7% p.a. between
2010 and 2050).
Freight transport activity showed steady growth between 2005 and 2007, continuing the 1995-2005
trend. However, the economic crisis led to a reduction
of activity in the subsequent years resulting in lower
levels in 2010 compared to 2005. The projections
show an increase in the total freight transport activity
by about 57% (1.1% p.a.) between 2010 and 2050.
Notably, the strong growth in activity (1.7% p.a.) in
the short-term (up to 2015), driven by GDP developments, allows the recovery of freight transport activity
to pre-crisis levels.
Freight traffic shows strong correlation with GDP
growth until 2030. The completion of the TEN-T core
most important passenger mode after road transport.
network by 2030 and of the comprehensive network
by 2050 is expected to provide more adequate
Passenger rail activity is projected to increase by
transport infrastructure coverage and support a concentration of trans-national traffic and long-distance
79% during 2010-2050 (1.5% p.a.) and expand its
modal share by 2 percentage points (from 8% in 2010
to 10% in 2050), driven in particular by the completion of the TEN-T core network by 2030 and of the
comprehensive network by 2050. High-speed rail
sees a significant increase in terms of volume (2.5%
p.a. during 2010-2050) and share as a result of the
infrastructure build-up and the upgrade of existing
railway lines. About 37% of passenger rail traffic, expressed in passenger-kilometres, would be carried by
high-speed rail by 2050.
Passenger rail competes with both road and air
transport. In EU15 a relatively important share of additional demand would be covered by rail (in most
cases high-speed rail where investments are foreseen), considering the saturation of passenger car
demand. The increase of fossil fuel prices also shifts
part of the passenger road traffic to rail. In addition,
high-speed rail attracts demand from short-haul air
travel.
flows. It is also expected to provide support for logistic functions and improve inter-modal integration
(road, rail, and inland navigation), through the innovative information management systems which are part
of the network, and reduce the time losses caused by
road congestion. As already mentioned, beyond
2030, weaker growth prospects together with shifts in
GDP composition towards services and information
activities and limits to distant sourcing and off-shoring
contribute to a certain weakening in freight transport
activity.
Road freight traffic is projected to increase by about
55% between 2010 and 2050 (1.1% p.a.), but growth
is unevenly distributed between the EU15 and EU12.
The highest growth in road freight transport activity
would take place in the EU12 (72% for 2010-2050,
equivalent to 1.4% p.a.) where a strong correlation
with GDP growth can be observed. Overall, road
freight sees a slight reduction in its modal share, from
71% in 2010 to 70% in 2050.
19
Inland navigation holds a small share of total passenger transport activity and projections show a
By 2050, rail freight features the highest growth
19
to 1.5% p.a.) and increases its modal share from almost 16% in 2010 to 18% in 2050. The significant
Inland navigation includes inland waterways and national maritime transport.
among the freight transport modes (79%, equivalent
increase in rail freight transport activity is mainly driv-
EU Reference scenario 2013
39
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
en by the completion of the TEN-T core and comprehensive network; thus improving the competitiveness
of the mode.
Inland navigation traffic also benefits from the recovery in GDP growth and the completion of the TEN-T
core and comprehensive network, including support
for the logistic functions and improved inter-modal
integration, and is thus projected to grow by 41% between 2010 and 2050 (0.9% p.a.). However, the relatively stronger growth in road and rail traffic leads to a
slight decrease in its modal share, from about 13% in
2010 to 12% in 2050.
Historically, final energy demand in the transport sector has grown in line with the transport activity. However, despite the projected upward trends in transport
activity beyond 2010, final energy demand stabilizes
by 2050 to levels marginally lower than those observed in 2010. The projections show some weak
growth in energy demand (0.3% p.a.) in the shortterm (up to 2015), mainly driven by the strong recovery in the freight transport activity following the crisis.
Beyond 2015 however, energy demand is decoupling
from transport activity (Figure 24).
FIGURE 24: TRENDS IN TRANSPORT ACTIVITY AND ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
260
GDP
240
Index 1995=100
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
Freight
transport
activity
Passenger
transport
activity
Energy for
Freight
transportation
Energy for
Passenger
transportation
The main driver of low final energy demand from
transport relative to transport activity is the improvement in fuel efficiency driven by policies, in particular
for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
(Figure 26) and the uptake of more efficient technologies for other transport means. In order to comply
with the regulations on CO2 emissions standards for
Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs), covering passenger cars
and light commercial vehicles (LCVs), manufacturers
40
have to introduce more fuel efficient LDVs into the
market. In particular, in passenger road transport energy efficiency of vehicles improves by 21% in 2020
and 35% in 2030 relative to 2005 (Figure 26), leading
to a decline in energy demand in passenger road
transport by 2030. Beyond 2030, energy demand of
passenger road transport stabilizes. Efficiency gains,
driven by increasing fuel prices and techno-economic
developments, evolve at slower pace in lack of more
stringent CO2 emissions regulations.
FIGURE 25: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN TRANSPORT
Shares in %
Mtoe
400
350
2
2
2
2
14
16
17
17
2
3
3
36
36
43
42
Inland
navigation
2
Aviation
31
300
250
200
34
Rail
150
100
Freight
road
transport
52
46
50
0
2010 2020 2030 2050
Other passenger transport modes also contribute to
the decoupling between activity and final energy demand. However this contribution is more apparent in
the longer term, from 2030 onwards. Aviation activity
increases considerably throughout the projection period leading to increased energy demand. Nonetheless, energy demand grows less than activity as aviation experiences high efficiency gains owing to the
introduction of more energy efficient aircrafts and the
20
renewal of the fleet . Efficiency improvements in aviation amount to 12% in 2020 relative to 2005, and
31% by 2030. Passenger rail features some relatively
lower rates of improvement in efficiency by 2030
compared to road and aviation. In addition to the currently high efficiency of rail relative to other transport
means, the long lifetime of the rolling stock delays its
renewal and therefore the improvements in efficiency.
20
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has set ambitious targets to curb fuel consumption and mitigate GHG emissions
from aviation in its Carbon Neutral Growth initiative, according to
which the aviation industry has committed to an average improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% per year by 2020 and a cap on aviation CO2 emissions from 2020 (carbon-neutral growth). By 2050
the CO2 emissions from aviation should be reduced by 50% relative to 2005 levels. Source:
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/facts_figures/fact_sheets/pages/envi
ronment.aspx.
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
The improvements would be mainly attributed to fuel
substitution; in particular switching from diesel to
electricity in areas where electrification is an economically viable option and in line with the provisions of
specific initiatives by MS.
FIGURE 26: TRANSPORT EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT
% change of consumed toe/Mpkm from 2005
Passenger transport
Road transport
Rail
Aviation
-12
-18
-18
-21
-22
-31
-31
-35
-35
-39
-40
RESULTS
due to their small share in energy demand. Overall,
fuel consumption in road freight transport per Mtkm is
projected to decrease by 6% in 2020, 15% in 2030
and 22% in 2050 relative to 2005.
Freight rail follows similar developments as passenger rail; it sees moderate improvements in specific
energy consumption, partly driven by the substitution
of diesel by electricity. However, by 2050 the efficiency gains in rail freight are somewhat higher than for
road freight, in lack of specific policies for CO 2 emissions reduction or energy efficiency of newly registered HGVs. By 2050, improvements in specific fuel
consumption for inland navigation amount to 24%
relative to 2005, slightly lower than those achieved in
rail freight.
-46
% change of consumed toe/Mtkm from 2005
Freight transport
Road transport
Rail
-6
-6
-7
Inland navigation
-13
-15
-16
-19
-23
-22
-20
-24
-28
2020
2030
2050
Efficiency improvements also take place in freight
transportation, and moderate the effect of the increasing activity (which is growing stronger than for
passenger transport) on energy demand. Heavy
goods vehicles (HGVs), which throughout the projection period account for more than 80% of energy consumed in freight transport, undergo improvements in
specific fuel consumption driven in particular by the
increasing fossil fuel prices. Fuel costs represent a
considerable part of operational costs of HGVs and
their minimization is among the main objectives of
HGV manufacturers and fleet operators. Improvements in technology, related among others to vehicle
design or vehicle powertrain, aim to reduce vehicle
specific fuel consumption. The reductions in vehicle
specific energy consumption of HGVs become more
apparent in the long term, as the renewal rate of the
HGV fleet is slow. LCVs on the other hand, show high
efficiency gains already by 2020 as a result of CO 2
emissions regulations, but their effect on energy demand of freight road transportation is not significant
EU Reference scenario 2013
The obligation to meet CO2 standards for LDVs is
reflected in the change of the transport fuel mix
(Figure 27). Emissions performance standards for
vehicles together with favourable taxation of diesel by
some Member States result in wide scale substitution
of petrol with diesel in conventional passenger cars,
and favor the introduction of diesel hybrid vehicles
21
(Figure 28) . Consumption of petrol declines considerably until 2030 and stabilizes from thereon to 2050,
as no more stringent requirements for fuel-efficiency
are introduced. Consumption of diesel increases by
2015 and stabilizes in the period 2015 to 2050, becoming the dominant fuel in passenger cars and continuing to be the primary fuel for heavy duty vehicles
(HGVs, buses and coaches). Heavy duty vehicles
have little potential to switch to alternative fuels such
as LNG as this would require significant investments
in infrastructure build-up across the EU, which is not
assumed to be the case in the Reference 2013 sce22
nario .
Consumption of jet fuels in aviation increases steadily
by 2050 due to the increase in transport activity and
despite improvements in efficiency; fossil fuels continue to dominate, and only after 2035 biofuels (biokerosene) slowly start penetrating the aviation fuel
mix - driven by high ETS prices.
21
Despite the relatively higher carbon intensity of diesel, dieselfueled vehicles are more fuel economic than gasoline-fueled vehicles.
22
The Clean Power for Transport package, adopted by the European Commission in January 2013, is not reflected in the Reference scenario 2013.
41
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
Biofuels in general, make significant inroads in
transport by 2020, driven by the legally binding target
the RES-T target, biofuels maintain their share as a
result of improved economics of the biofuel supply
Finally, other energy forms such as LPG and natural
gas maintain a rather small share in the final energy
demand of the transport sector. Passenger cars running on LPG and CNG see a moderate increase especially stemming from countries with re-fuelling infrastructure already in place; in Member States where
such infrastructure is currently not in place the uptake
of CNG and LPG vehicles on a commercial basis is
limited in the Reference 2013 scenario.
side and the increasing fossil fuel prices.
FIGURE 28: STRUCTURE OF PASSENGER CARS FLEET AND
of 10% renewable energy in the transport sector
(RES-T target). In parallel with the shift towards diesel vehicles, the share of biodiesel consumption increases, also driven by its uptake in road freight
transport. Beyond 2020, with no further tightening of
FUEL CONSUMPTION
FIGURE 27: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN TRANSPORT BY FUEL
4
Shares in %
Mtoe
400
4
350
300
250
200
2
3
1
8
16
17
6
8
2
4
2
8
7
4
Biofuels
100
Jet fuel
1
7
8
25
60
17
4
4
Fuel cell
6
8
7
1
9
7
3
9
39
32
29
LPG and CNG
53
36
41
Electricity
Hybrid
Biofuels
18
Gasoline conv.
53
36
44
37
55
57
30
Diesel conv.
H2
LPG and CNG
Plug-in and
BEV
26
Gas
Fuel oil
39
46
50
52
Gasoline
Diesel
56
2010
2020
2030
2050
2010 2020 2030 2050
Diesel
Gasoline
0
7
14
Methane, LPG and
others
Electricity
150
50
2
2
Shares in energy consumption by
cars (%)
Shares in car stock (%)
TYPE
Power generation
26
17
13
11
2010 2020 2030 2050
Electricity consumption in transport sees a steady
increase as a result of rail electrification and the penetration of alternative electric powertrains in road
transport. Electrically chargeable vehicles (EVs), in
particular in the segment of passenger cars and
LCVs, emerge around 2020 as a result of EU and
national policies as well as incentive schemes aiming
to boost their penetration. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs)
hold the largest share among EVs due to their ability
to use both power-trains alternatively (internal combustion engine or electric motor) and they would represent two thirds of EVs in 2050. Some improvements in battery costs are assumed to occur allowing
for a decrease in capital costs together with slow increase in infrastructure availability. The penetration of
electric vehicles occurs mainly in niche markets, in
urban areas for urban commuting and municipal
fleets, due to limited range of vehicles, which is assumed to persist. By 2050 the share of electric vehicles in the total stock of cars reaches approximately
8% (Figure 28).
Developments in power generation in the Reference
2013 scenario are driven by the implementation of
RES policies to the horizon of 2020 and by growing
ETS carbon prices – also in the longer term, especially after 2030. Both induce high level of RES penetration in power generation throughout the projection
period, in particular variable RES, which are demanding in terms of balancing services and system reserves. In order to support the penetration of RES,
the requirements for capacity back-up by thermal
plants are high, and are met in the projection by investments on flexible gas plants and by extensions of
lifetime of old (typically open cycle) plants.
In the short term, in particular up to 2020, developments are characterized by two main aspects: 1) the
necessity to achieve the RES targets, and 2) planned
investments in existing and new power plants. The
first necessity stimulates RES growth whereas the
second determines to a large extent the developments in conventional power plants. Considering the
very long lead times for large (in particular) conventional plants, investments that will take place up to
2020 are already known today. The PRIMES model
42
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
fully includes in its database all currently known
planned investments, including lifetime extensions as
Also the assumptions on nuclear have radically
changed compared to previous projections based on
well as planned decommissioning, based on commercial databases (e.g. Platts) and plans of large
recent policy developments, changed economic situation and detailed surveys into the possibilities of ex-
companies in all the Member States. The projections
tending the lifetime of existing power plants. The pos-
of large investments in this decade are strongly determined by such known investments and decommis-
sibilities of extension of lifetime for power plants have
been analytically assessed through a plant by plant
sioning plans.
survey based on the age, construction type (generation) of the power plant and national legislation. The
The Reference 2013 scenario also considers country
construction of new power plants on new sites (i.e. in
locations where there are currently no power plants)
specific potentials for RES penetration in addition to
the specificities by Member States in policies regarding nuclear and CCS options. Moreover, the scenario
assumes completion of the internal energy market
and the successful implementation of the 10-year
network development plan of ENTSO-E (TYNDP),
which entails considerable investments in electricity
transmission systems. These infrastructure developments include refurbishment or construction of
transmission and distribution power lines, the extension of the grid, enabling capacity additions and supporting the integration of the high levels of intermittent
RES in the system. Moreover, they allow for a general increase of net transfer capacities (NTC) values,
thus leading to a higher potential for trade within the
internal energy market. The possibility to make more
has become considerably more expensive based also
on issues related to public acceptance. The construction of new power plants on existing nuclear sites is
limited based on surveys which assess the possibilities (e.g. based on spatial limitations) of expansion in
existing locations. The model updates concerning
limitations, the new national legislation and the higher
costs lead to lower perspectives for nuclear than in
past projections.
Electricity generation
In the short term, the set of EU and national specific
policies that promote RES (notably implementation of
supportive financial instruments such as feed-in-
extensive use of interconnectors and new transmis-
tariffs) drive significant penetration of RES in power
generation. The binding short-term RES targets are
sion grids allows for use of sites with lower costs,
even when these are far away from consumption cen-
assumed to be achieved in the Reference 2013 scenario. RES expansion is also facilitated by the as-
tres. As a result the fully interlinked system allows for
better optimisation of resources and capacity expan-
sumed developments of grids and new equipment for
sion.
controlling grid operation, especially in the case of
smart grids. Up to 2020, the share of RES in electrici-
Regarding carbon capture and storage (CCS) the
ty generation (RES-E indicator ) reaches 35%, a
significant increase from the 20% in 2010. Beyond
23
PRIMES model has been updated to take into account the difficulties that this technology has been
encountering over the past years related to the de-
2020, no binding targets on RES are currently set,
however the share of RES in electricity generation
continues to increase attaining 43% in 2030 and 50%
velopment of demonstration plants and storage facilities. The cost of CCS power plants construction has
in 2050, driven by the increasing ETS prices, along
with the continuation of some direct support
been revised accordingly making the technology
more expensive, in particular the storage cost-supply
schemes and a continuation of enabling policies,
such as streamlined authorization procedures, priority
24
curves as well as the technology itself. In countries
(e.g. Austria) with stringent legislation, the storage
costs are extremely high, making investments in CCS
storage uneconomical throughout the projection period.
EU Reference scenario 2013
23
Calculated according to the definitions of the RES Directive used
also for the pertinent provisions of EUROSTAT statistics
24
After 2020, feed-in tariffs or equivalent support schemes are
substantially reduced depending on the maturity of the technology
and the MS.
43
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
access, where applicable, and the benefits that local
population may have from investing in local RES.
wind allow for the higher share in generation compared with capacity for off-shore wind.
FIGURE 29: ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL AND BY
Generation from PV contributes 4% in net generation
by 2020. Beyond 2020, PV generation continues to
PLANT TYPE
Net electricity generation
by fuel type (TWh)
Shares (%)
4500
Solar, tidal etc.
4000
Wind
3500
Hydro
3000
Biomass
2500
Derived gasses
1
5
4
12
15
4
1
23
3
2000
Natural gas
24
1500
Coal and
lignite
500
27
26
11
6
1
20
1
22
11
6
1
20
1
10
8
1
18
12
1
7
22
21
Nuclear
0
increase up to 6% in 2030 and 9% in 2050; PV ca9
22
20
Petroleum
products
1000
6
2010 2020 2030 2050
Shares (%)
Net electricity generation
by plant type (TWh)
4500
Solar and other
4000
Wind
3500
3000
2500
2000
Hydro
Biomass
Gas Oil
conventional
CCGT
1500
CCS
1000
Solids
500
Nuclear
1
5
5
12
15
6
9
22
3
9
11
17
5
6
15
11
14
26
10
7
6
12
21
28
22
port schemes and the decreasing costs of solar panels. While support schemes are being reduced, costs
continue to fall and total PV capacities reach 149GW
in 2030 and 231GW in 2050.
The use of biomass and waste combustion for power
generation also increases over time, both in pure biomass plants (usually of relatively small size) and in
co-firing applications in solid fuel plants; biomass attains a share in fuel input in thermal power plants of
25
26
5
7
pacity is projected to reach 110 GW in 2020, up from
30 GW in 2010. Investment is mostly driven by sup-
13
6
3
22
21
0
2010 2020 2030 2050
16% in 2020, 19% in 2030 and 26% in 2050 . Biomass also becomes very significant in CHP, in which
it contributes 33% in 2020, reaching 35% in 2030 and
41% in 2050. Biomass plant capacities reach 35 GW
in 2020, up from 25 GW in 2010, 39GW in 2030 and
66 GW in 2050. Above 50% of biomass power plants
use solid biomass; biogas use increases in the short
term and reaches a share of approximately 25% by
2020, with a slight increase in the remainder of the
projection period.
While RES provide growing shares in electricity generation (up to 50% in 2050), the contribution of variable RES (solar, wind as well as tidal/wave in the definition used here) remains significantly lower. These
variable RES combined account for 19% of total net
electricity generation in 2020, up from only 5% in
2010. Their share is rising to 28% in 2030 and 35% in
2050.
Wind provides the largest contribution from RES supplying 15% of total net electricity generation in 2020,
rising to 22% in 2030 and 26% by 2050. A share of
30% of total wind generation is produced from wind
off-shore capacities from 2020 onwards. Total wind
capacities increase to 205 GW in 2020, 305 GW in
2030 and 413 GW in 2050, up from 85 GW in 2010,
of which around a quarter is installed off-shore in
2020 and beyond; higher full load hours of off-shore
44
The relative contribution of hydro generation remains
rather constant at 10-11% of total net generation, with
small hydro slightly increasing. The share of geothermal electricity generation rises from 0.2% in 2020
to reach 0.6% in 2050. Tidal and wave, which mainly
develop after 2020 in a few MS with such resources,
represent 0.2% of total EU net generation by 2030,
reaching 0.4% at the end of the projection period.
Generation from conventional thermal plants decreases continuously up to 2030 and stabilises thereon, supported by the introduction of CCS. The introduction of CCS starts with the demonstration plants
25
Calculated following EUROSTAT definitions, i.e. excluding energy consumed by Industrial sectors and refineries for on site CHP
steam generation.
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
26
RESULTS
built up to 2020, but only minor additions occur in
the projection until 2030. CCS develops mainly after
taking account of all relevant factors, in particular of
the ETS price, while the ETS price in turn is influ-
2030 reaching 1.7% of gross electricity generation in
2035 and rising further to 7% by 2050. In 2050, total
enced by such investments. The increase in ETS
prices therefore counteracts the increasing effect on
net CCS generation capacity amounts to 38 GW.
emissions that would otherwise occur from the rela-
CCS power generation in this scenario requires a
cumulative storage capacity of approximately 670Mt
tively low natural gas price.
CO2 up to 2050. The distribution of CCS by country is
very uneven as the analysis is considering the specif-
Gas plays a crucial role in the context of emission
ic policies as well as the availability of storage sites
27
by MS .
reduction targets and increased penetration of intermittent RES. As a fuel it is less CO2 emissions intensive relative to other fossil fuels, and gas units are
flexible enough to serve the increased balancing re-
Generation from solid fuels declines significantly
quirements of RES. Overall, generation from gas
throughout the projection period, in particular in the
period 2030-50, as ETS prices increase considerably.
power capacities provides around 20% of total net
generation up to 2040, falling only 1 percentage point
Investment in non-CCS solid fuel plants after 2020
amount to 33.6 GW, whereas 32.4 GW are added in
in the decade to 2050. The contribution of gas to total
net thermal generation ranges between 45% and
the decade 2011-20. Phasing out of solid generation
is very intense, as availability of CCS technologies is
55% throughout the projection period. Generation
from CCGT in particular constitutes 35% and 42% of
relatively limited. By 2050, more than half of solid-
total thermal generation in 2020 and 2030 respective-
fuelled generation is produced from facilities with installed CCS technologies.
ly, reaching 45% in 2050. Industrial gas technologies
serve CHP purposes, while gas peak devices reach
Gas-fired generation slightly decreases until 2020,
but increases thereafter, in 2050 reaching the same
7% of total thermal generation at the end of the projection period.
levels as in 2010. Total investment in gas-fired plants
in the period 2011-50 amounts to net 335 GW (225
Cogeneration develops significantly in the Reference
2013 scenario, driven by the corresponding provi-
GW gas plants are operating in 2010). This strong
sions of the EED. The share of gross electricity pro-
increase in gas capacity despite rather stagnant generation from gas highlights the key role that gas is
duced by CHP plants attains a level around 16%
throughout the period from 2020 until 2050, signifi-
increasingly playing as a back-up technology for variable RES.
cantly up from 13% in 2010.
Specific nuclear phase-out policies that have been
The interplay of continuously declining ETS allowance supply, RES policies and the demand levels
adopted by some EU MS (Germany and Belgium),
along with the higher cost induced by increased secu-
stemming from the level and structure of energy con-
rity requirements, drive electricity generation from
sumption entails only limited gas investment given
the existing plants and new investments (notably for
nuclear downwards in the short term (up to 2025).
Thereon, the projected level of investments surpass-
coping with RES targets) and the effects of energy
policies, especially on energy efficiency. The power
es decommissioning of nuclear capacity and by the
end of the projection period installed nuclear capaci-
plant investments have been modelled in each period
ties are almost equal to 2010 levels. Participation of
nuclear in the generation mix remains, however, low-
26
er than today, reflecting rising electricity generation
The included power plants are: UK (White Rose) 0.4478GW net
capacity, coal CCS; Netherlands (Rotterdam Capture and Storage
Demonstration Project-ROAD) 0.227GW net capacity, coal CCS;
Poland (Belchatow) 0.2294 GW net capacity, coal CCS.
27
In PRIMES it is assumed that no cross-border trade of CO2 is
possible therefore the CO2 captured in a country must also be
stored in the same country.
EU Reference scenario 2013
volume. The projected investments in nuclear capacity mainly occur on existing sites or are lifetime extensions through retrofitting; there are very few projected
investments in nuclear capacities on new sites. Out of
45
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
the 176GW of capacity additions, only 12GW are capacities constructed on new sites.
FIGURE 30: INSTALLED POWER CAPACITIES
GW net
1600
Considering the cumulative investments in the period
2011-50, retrofitting investments constitute approxi-
Solar and other
1400
Wind
mately one third of overall investments. As the share
1200
of non-dispatchable generation (variable RES) in the
system is increasing, profit margins of conventional
1000
Peak devices
800
Gas/Oil Conv.
28
generation are diminishing thus undertaking large
new investments in dispatchable capacities risks be-
CCGT
the combined generation of electricity and heat from
the same input fuel. Overall, CHP contributes to
greater energy efficiency. This feature is not present
for CCS, which actually requires more energy for the
same output, but delivers this electricity output almost
carbon free. As can be seen from Table 5 the shares
CCS solids
200
Solids
Nuclear
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
FIGURE 31: PROJECTED CAPACITY ADDITIONS
Capacity additions (GW net)
600
Solar and other
Wind
500
Hydro
400
Biomass
Gas/Oil Conv.
300
CCGT
CCS
200
Solids
of zero (RES, nuclear), and low carbon technologies
100
(here: CCS) are rising or at least remaining stable
after 2020 (nuclear).
0
Nuclear
2001-10 2011-20 2021-30 2031-40 2041-50
Finally, in the context of high intermittent RES power
generation, the projection shows increasing volumes
of electricity trade over time to cover balancing requirements (Table 6). This is possible under the as-
2010
2005
2000
0
their low capital intensity compared to the construction of new plants.
despite an increasing share of CHP, which optimises
CCS gas
400
nomic perspective, despite their short lifetime, due to
plants there is an on-going trend towards higher efficiency of thermal electricity generation. This happens
Biomass
600
coming increasingly uneconomic. Retrofitting investments, where possible, are desirable from an eco-
Following the retirement of obsolete thermal capacity
and strong investment in modern thermal power
Hydro
Net capacity additions* (GW net)
Solar
2041-50
Wind
sumption of higher potential of trade in the internal
energy market, induced by the successful development of the TYNDP.
Hydro
Biomass
2031-40
Gas/Oil Conv.
CCGT
2021-30
CCS
Solids
Nuclear
2011-20
-50
0
50
100
150
28
Reflecting, among other things, lower wholesale prices following
substantial supply from capacity with close to zero marginal costs
over large parts of a typical day including around a noon peak of
demand.
46
* capacity additions minus decommissioned capacity
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
TABLE 5: INDICATORS OF POWER GENERATION
2010
2020
2030
2050
Efficiency for thermal
electricity production (%)
38.4
40.8
42.7
44.6
CHP indicator
(% of electricity from CHP)
12.6
15.8
16.1
16.2
CCS indicator
(% of gross electricity from CCS)
0.0
0.2
0.5
6.9
Non-fossil fuels
in electricity generation (%)
48.5
58.0
66.3
72.8
- nuclear
27.5
21.9
21.8
21.3
- renewable energy forms
and industrial waste
21.0
36.1
44.5
51.6
RESULTS
In terms of district heating fuel input, the share of solids and oil decreases considerably and the share of
gas decreases as well but at a slower rate and only
till 2030. Biomass is used increasingly representing
almost 50% of fuel input in 2020 and 57% in 2050 (in
comparison to 26% in 2010).
FIGURE 32: FUEL INPUT FOR STEAM GENERATION
50
Other fuels
(hydrogen,
methanol)
Geothermal
heat
45
40
29
TABLE 6: VOLUME OF ELECTRICITY TRADE
Sum of all export and import flows of electricity as simulated by the
model
2010
2020
2030
2050
Nordic
21.6
45.4
57.8
93.6
British islands
5.2
22.9
16.1
14.6
North-West EU
54.8
94.4
137.2
110.9
Iberian
12.1
11.0
14.9
33.2
Central-South EU
60.4
63.8
62.9
93.8
Central-East EU
27.3
20.6
30.1
36.1
Baltic States
11.4
4.0
7.9
12.1
South East Europe
32.0
44.8
62.2
81.0
with outside Europe
23.4
10.7
15.5
9.9
Total
248.1
317.6
404.8
485.3
35
demand are industry and households.
On the supply side, as explained above, the role of
cogeneration develops significantly in the Reference
2013 scenario, driven by the corresponding provi-
Biomass &
waste
30
26
28
33
35
4
4
45
41
42
50
50
45
45
3
5
3
9
2
12
2
11
1
49
5
Other gas fuels
25
20
Natural gas
15
Oil products
10
Lignite and
other solid fuels
5
0
2010 2020 2030 2050
Shares (%)
Fuel input in district heating and boilers (ktoe)
100
90
80
Steam and heat supply
Steam and heat demand continues to grow in the
EU28 till 2020 and then stabilises. Main sources of
Shares (%)
Fuel input for On Site CHP steam generation (ktoe)
70
60
Other fuels
(hydrogen,
methanol)
Geothermal
heat
Biomass &
waste
20
34
40
42
47
50
Gas
42
40
30
43
20
10
0
45
Oil
22
15
Solids
10
8
9
8
8
5
2010 2020 2030 2050
sions of the EED.
While electricity generation from CHP plants increases throughout the projection period, steam output
increases up to 2020 and remains almost constant
throughout the projection period.
The role of cogeneration in steam and heat supply
grows from 73% in 2010 to 76% in 2030 and 80% in
2050. Production of steam from district heating units
consequently decreases over time. Industrial boilers
and industrial CHP plants decrease only slightly over
the projection period due to increasing efficiency their
steam output increases slightly.
29
The modelling results for the statistical year 2010 appear to be
lower than the corresponding published data from ENTSO-E. This
is attributed to the limited time resolution of the load curves assumed in the model. The figures in Table 5 should be read as an
indication of the trend that trade flows will follow, rather than as
projections of their absolute level.
EU Reference scenario 2013
Electricity costs and prices
The developments in the EU28 power sector have
significant impacts on energy costs and electricity
prices, in particular in the short term. Power generation costs significantly increase by 2020 relative to
2010, mainly as a consequence of higher investments due to the need for significant capital replacement and higher fuel costs (because of the large increase in international fossil fuel prices). Grid costs
also increase to recover high investment costs in grid
reinforcements and interconnectors, which are fully
consistent with the provisions of the ENTSO-E
TYNDP as well as the achievement of the RES 2020
target. Smaller components of the cost increase are
national taxes and ETS allowance expenditures. In
addition, there are the arithmetic effects of successful
energy efficiency policies, which through curtailing
47
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
electricity demand reduce the denominator for sharing out the electricity costs while the numerator is
FIGURE 34: PRICE OF ELECTRICITY (PRE-TAX) BY SECTOR
€'10/MWh
less affected due to the high share of fixed costs in
electricity generation and supply. As a result, average
220.0
electricity price in the period 2010-20 increases by
180.0
31% (Table 7).
160.0
200.0
140.0
TABLE 7: EVOLUTION OF COST COMPONENTS OF
ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 2010-20
€/MWh
120.0
Average price
Industry
Households
Services
100.0
80.0
diff. 2010-20
% contribution
Fixed and capital costs
14.2
34.5
Variable and fuel costs
4.5
11.1
Tax on fuels and ETS payments
3.8
9.1
Transmission, distribution and sales
costs
7.5
18.3
Other costs (imports, recovery for RES*)
8.4
20.6
broadly stable up to 2035 and then are projected to
moderately decrease up to 2050 (Figure 33 and Fig-
Excise and VAT taxes
2.6
6.4
ure 34), as the benefits, in terms of fuel cost savings,
Average price of electricity for final
demand sectors (after tax)
41.0
60.0
Beyond 2020, average electricity prices remain
resulting from the enormous restructuring invest-
*RES supporting costs passed on to consumers
FIGURE 33: COST COMPONENTS OF AVERAGE ELECTRICITY
The electricity prices in PRIMES are calculated in order
to recuperate all costs including those related to renew-
PRICE
160
ables including feed-in-tariffs, grid costs, and investment costs including stranded investments, back-up
and reserve costs, etc., and including some profit margin.
140
€'10/MWh
120
100
The process to determine the electricity prices in
PRIMES can be divided into four steps:
80
i) Determination of total system costs under least cost
unit commitment and least cost expansion conditions
mimicking well-functioning markets. ii) Simulation of
wholesale markets by country and estimation of marginal system prices reflecting long run marginal costs.
iii) Matching of load profiles of customer-types with the
60
40
20
0
Calculation of electricity prices in PRIMES
2010
2020
2030
2050
Annual capital cost
34
45
41
39
Fixed costs
13
16
16
15
Variable costs
3
2
2
3
Fuel costs
34
39
36
33
Tax on fuels and ETS payments
1
4
9
11
Other costs (imports, recovery
for RES)
2
10
6
1
Excise tax and VAT on electricity
17
20
21
22
Average price of electricity (after
tax)
131
172
172
169
duration curve of long term marginal prices with customers sorted in descending order of their load factor
mimicking bilateral contracting. iv) Calculation of prices
by sector based on price levels by customer type calculated in step (iii) and the recovery of total system budget
including variable generation costs and annuity payments for capital costs, recovery of additional costs for
RES and cost of grid differentiated by voltage type.
Grid cost recovery is based exclusively on load payments at average grid tariffs determined as levelised
costs of regulated asset basis.
The pricing approach corresponds to the RamseyBoiteux methodology and allows for the differentiation of
electricity prices by sector.
48
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
ments in electricity supply come increasingly to the
fore. In addition, lower technology costs from technology progress and learning over time help contain
electricity prices together with deceleration of gas
price increase.
FIGURE 35: PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
Electricity (net
imports)
1800
1600
crease in the capital cost components.
10
16
19
23
13
RES
11
1400
24
Nuclear
24
1000
12
13
24
24
800
Natural gas
600
37
35
400
35
Oil
200
15
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
increasing grid costs bring a decrease of the share of
variable cost components and a corresponding in-
Shares (%)
Mtoe
2000
1200
Over time, the structure of costs slightly changes;
capital intensive investments (RES and CCS) and
RESULTS
14
Solids
10
33
7
2010 2020 2030 2050
Primary energy supply and import dependency
increase after 2035; energy efficiency gains in final
energy demand are the main factors behind this
trend. In parallel, there is a shift in primary energy
supply towards RES along with a decline in the supply of solid fuels as well as oil (Figure 35). Natural
gas maintains an almost stable share in primary energy supply throughout the projection period. Nuclear
energy sees a decline in the short term (attributable
to the nuclear phase-out that is being pursued by
some Member States) but is projected to resume a
FIGURE 36: PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION
Shares (%)
Mtoe
1200
RES (other
than biomass)
6
13
15
1000
Biomass &
Waste
19
20
28
Nuclear
27
19
800
22
24
600
27
Natural gas
400
19
29
17
200
12
Oil
10
15
7
19
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
The trend in total primary energy supply is downward
throughout the projection period, with a moderate
17
Solids
12
9
2
9
2010 2020 2030 2050
moderate increasing trend in the decades after 2020.
The situation in imports evolves only moderately. BeRecovery from the economic crisis brings an upward
effect on energy demand, observed up to 2015,
which is consequently reflected on primary supply
yond 2020, despite the decreasing trend in final energy demand for fossil fuels, limited domestic resources result in an increase in imports of natural gas
and oil products (Figure 38), which drive net imports
solids). This trend is reversed until 2020, as the shift
towards the consumption of RES in parallel with the
as well as import dependence moderately upward. By
2030, import dependence reaches 55%, and by 2050
improvements in energy efficiency (which lowers the
demand) have a positive effect on import dependency
it is close to 57%.
(Figure 37). Evolution of primary energy production
follows the declining trend of primary energy supply, it
FIGURE 37: PRIMARY ENERGY IMPORTS
57.0
is however steeper and continuous throughout the
56.0
projection period (with a small increase in the period
2035-45), as it reflects the depletion of domestic fos-
55.0
980
970
960
950
940
930
920
910
900
890
880
%
54.0
sil fuel reserves. The mix in primary energy production changes considerably over time, with RES (in-
53.0
cluding biomass) becoming the dominant energy form
(Figure 36).
51.0
52.0
50.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Import dependence (%)
EU Reference scenario 2013
Mtoe (thousands)
and import dependence (mainly for natural gas and
Net imports (Mtoe)
49
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
FIGURE 38: NET IMPORTS BY FUEL
Biomass supply, which is projected to be mostly indigenous in the EU, increases significantly over time
Net imports (Mtoe)
Solids
600
500
Crude oil and
Feedstocks
400
Oil products
following the developments of domestic industry
which is increasingly using advanced feedstock and
technologies. Until 2020, the increase in the demand
for biofuels is faster than the growth of the domestic
production, resulting in a substantial increase in the
300
Natural gas
Electricity
share of imported biofuels relative to past levels. Beyond 2020, domestic production catches up, and the
Renewable energy
forms
share of imported biofuels remains stable until the
end of the projection period.
200
100
0
2005
2010
2020
2030
2050
-100
CO2 emissions
Incremental net imports relative to 2005
(Mtoe)
78
32
31
22 25
2020
9
2030
2050
-28
-40
-70
Solids
-78
-91 -88
Oil
Gas
Renewable
energy forms
The external fossil fuel bill of the EU is projected to
rise in constant prices by around 50% from 2010 to
2030 and exceeds 2010 levels by around 80% in
2050, reaching around 500 bn €’10 and 600 bn €’10
in 2030 and 2050, respectively.
The developments in the EU according to the Reference scenario energy projections that have been described so far, following the provisions of the EU
ETS, the RES Directive, the ESD, the EED and other
specific policies, result in reduced energy intensity of
activities in parallel with reduced carbon intensity of
power generation and energy demand. The combined
effect of these developments is that CO2 emissions in
the EU are projected to decrease continuously until
2050. CO2 emissions reduction is very significant, in
particular in the power generation sector, resulting
mainly from the ETS, in particular in the longer term.
In other sectors, CO2 emissions reduction is mainly
driven by the energy intensity decreases that are induced by policies on energy efficiency.
The evolution of the generation mix implies a steady
decrease in carbon intensity of power generation
(Figure 39) and leads to significant emissions reductions from the sector. Carbon intensity of power generation from thermal
FIGURE 39: CO2 EMISSIONS OF POWER GENERATION AND ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
CO2 emissions of power generation (MtCO2)
1800
Refinery boilers
1400
Industrial boilers
1200
0.60
District heating
units
Thermal power
plants
800
600
400
0.58
0.50
0.41
0.30
0.20
A significant factor of
emissions reduction
0.33
0.22
0.16
0.00
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
in power generation
is the higher CHP
market
penetration
0.10
200
and the increasing
use of biomass in
cogeneration,
50
in
0.50
0.40
1000
26% in 2020 relative
to 2005. The corresponding figure
2050 is 70%.
0.70
1600
0
2000
plants decreases by
Carbon intensity of power
generation from thermal
plants (tCO2/MWhe+MWhth)
which
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
make steam generation less carbon intensive over
time. In the longer term, the introduction of CCS
technologies contributes to further emissions reduction; in 2030 the share of total CO2 emissions from
power generation that are captured is small, being
slightly higher than 1%, however it is projected to rise
to 48% of the remaining low emission level by 2050.
Overall, in 2020, total CO2 emissions of power generation are reduced by 29% relative to 2005; by 2030
and 2050, total emissions reduce by 45% and 70%
respectively.
Also in the industrial sector, the ETS drives a shift
towards less carbon intensive fuels, for both energy
related and process related uses. In parallel, activity
of the sector is projected to grow faster for nonenergy intensive industries. Industry as a whole is
also expected to make substantial efforts on energy
efficiency as it is confronted with the increasing energy prices and the global competition.
The resulting effect on energy-related carbon intensi-
30
Process related emissions decrease only slightly in
the short term (2% reduction in 2020 relative to 2005)
but decrease becomes considerable in the long term
(15% reduction in 2030), especially in the last decade
of the projection (69% reduction in 2050) following
the increasing trends of ETS prices, which make CCS
for industrial processes an economically viable option.
The effect on emissions from energy intensity decrease is even more considerable for the residential
sector (Figure 41), driven by increasing international
fuel prices and policies on eco-design and performance of buildings, including the EED. The effect of
these policies, in combination with renewables policies and national specific policies on reducing pollutants (thus driving a shift towards less carbon intensive fuels), drives a decrease of carbon intensity of
the sector by 17%, 23% and 32% relative to 2005 in
2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively.
FIGURE 41: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
1400
2030 and 29% until 2050. As demonstrated in Figure
1200
40: Energy-related CO2 emissions of the industrial
sector
1000
Mt CO2
ty of the industrial sector is a 14% decrease by 2020
relative to 2005, which is projected to reach 19% until
the impact of energy intensity decreases is driving the
bulk of achieved emissions reduction.
CO2 emission
reduction due to
energy intensity
gains
800
CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower carbon
intensity of energy
600
400
FIGURE 40: ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Actual CO2
emissions
200
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
900
CO2 emission
reduction due to
energy intensity
gains
800
700
600
Mt CO2
RESULTS
Similarly, in the tertiary sector (Figure 42), a signifi-
500
400
300
CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower carbon
intensity of energy
cant progress occurs in terms of energy intensity decrease driven by rising fuel prices and energy effi-
Actual CO2
emissions
Overall emissions decrease substantially throughout
the projection period, achieving carbon intensity re-
200
100
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
ciency policies, with projections showing a shift toward less carbon intensive fuels and electricity.
30
These include also the small amount of CO2 emissions in the
fugitive, solvent and waste sectors.
EU Reference scenario 2013
51
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
duction of 24%, 36% and 46% relative to 2005 in
2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively.
fostered by rising ETS prices. CO2 emissions from
passenger rail are decreasing as a result of switching
FIGURE 42: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE TERTIARY SECTOR
from diesel to electricity and the shift from conventional passenger rail to high-speed rail.
500
FIGURE 43: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
450
350
Mt CO2
300
250
200
150
1600
CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower carbon
intensity of energy
1200
Actual CO2
emissions
100
Passenger transport
CO2 emission
reduction due to
energy intensity
gains
50
CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower transport
activity relative to
GDP
CO2 emission
reduction due to
energy intensity
gains
1400
1000
Mt CO2
400
800
CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower carbon
intensity of energy
600
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
0
400
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
CO2 emissions decrease until 2035 and slightly increase thereafter primarily driven by CO2 emissions
Freight transport
growth in freight road transport and aviation (Figure
700
43). Fuel efficiency gains driven by CO 2 standards for
LDVs as well as the increasing fossil fuel prices result
mainly projected in the longer run for the passenger
cars segment and in rail.
500
Mt CO2
A shift to alternative fuels, including electricity, is
CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower transport
activity relative to
GDP
CO2 emission
reduction due to
energy intensity
gains
600
in significant emission reductions relative to current
trends. Decreases in carbon intensity of energy consumption are less pronounced as the projections do
not show a significant shift towards alternative fuels.
Actual CO2
emissions
200
In transport, CO2 emissions (excluding international
maritime) go down by 8% between 2010 and 2050.
400
300
CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower carbon
intensity of energy
200
100
considerable decrease in emissions from passenger
cars and light commercial vehicles, with the highest
0
reduction taking place in the period 2010-20. Beyond
2035, CO2 emissions from passenger road transport
stabilize with no further tightening of CO2 standards
assumed.
52
Actual CO2
emissions
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
The main drivers of declining emissions are policies
on CO2 emissions from LDVs. These bring about a
Regarding freight transport, CO2 emissions steadily
grow throughout the projection period. The main con-
Aviation emissions are increasing over the projection
tributor to CO2 emissions growth is road freight,
where the increased activity surpasses improvements
period, however at a slower rate than aviation activity,
primarily due to the fuel efficiency improvements and
in specific fuel consumption, especially for HGVs.
CO2 emissions from other modes (rail and inland nav-
the slow penetration of bio-kerosene beyond 2035,
igation) hold a small share in total freight emissions.
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
FIGURE 45: EVOLUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR
5000
31
tics ; the first one is that dedicated policies result in
ETS CO2 emissions reducing faster than overall
6
25
Tertiary
8
8
28
31
4
40
Residential
2500
2000
6
Shares in %
3000
6
11
11
5
12
14
4
16
4
4
Energy Branch
1000
34
500
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
0
Power
generation/District
heating
6
13
14
Industry
1500
2010
high marginal abatement costs in this sector. In the
long term, as power generation becomes almost
Transport
2005
compared to 1990 and decrease at much slower
pace between 2010 and 2050 due to the relatively
4000
1995
shows a very steep decrease in power generation,
whereas emissions in the field of transport increase
Process CO2
emissions
3500
Mt CO2
emissions. Moreover, the trend in CO2 emissions
4500
2000
Figure 44 and Figure 45 depict the evolution of total
CO2 emissions and indicate two main characteris-
RESULTS
17
4
30
25
16
2005 2020 2030 2050
completely carbon-free, the transport sector becomes
the largest source of CO2 emissions.
Non-CO2 emissions and their drivers
FIGURE 44: EVOLUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS
Current and future emissions of anthropogenic nonCO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) have been estimated
5000
for the Reference scenario using the GAINS model.
The input of energy activity drivers was taken from
Mt CO2
4000
3000
PRIMES model results and agricultural activity drivers
were derived from CAPRI model results (see box on
2000
1000
0
the next page). Drivers for other relevant sectors
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Non-ETS
1962
1854
1776
1631
1569
1515
1481
1456
1440
1432
ETS
2456
2162
2074
1908
1826
1601
1395
1266
1101
1018
Total CO2 4419
4016
3850
3539
3396
3116
2876
2721
2541
2450
5000
4000
Mt CO2
gases) viz. hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocar-
2000
1000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Process related CO2 280
236
257
274
278
240
227
212
110
86
Energy related CO2 4138 3780 3593 3265 3118 2876 2649 2510 2430 2364
Total CO2
nomic projections as described in section 2. The nonCO2 GHGs considered here are the ones targeted
under the Kyoto protocol, i.e. methane (CH4), nitrous
oxide (N2O) and three groups of fluorinated gases (F-
3000
0
(e.g., waste and F-gases) were developed within the
GAINS model to be consistent with the macroeco-
4419 4016 3850 3539 3396 3116 2876 2721 2541 2450
bons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6). Emissions of non-CO2 GHGs have been expressed in
terms of Mt CO2eq adopting IPCC AR2 Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) over 100 years, i.e. on a
weight-equivalent basis the CO2 equivalent warming
potential adopted for CH4 is 21 (i.e. 1t CH4 equals 21t
CO2eq), for N2O it is 310 (i.e. 1t N2O equals 310t
31
For consistency reasons PRIMES calculates energy-related CO2
emissions based on the fuel use reported in Eurostat energy balances and projected in PRIMES. The calculated emissions may
therefore vary from energy-related CO2 emissions reported to UNFCCC. Process related and other CO2 emissions are projected
starting from the emission inventories for 2005 and 2010 as reported to the UNFCCC in May 2012. Starting from this basis, PRIMES
total CO2 emissions are calibrated to total CO2 emissions reported
to UNFCCC in 2012 for 2005 to the extent reasonably possible. In
particular, adjustments have been done for process-related emissions to avoid possible double counting of CO2 emissions. PRIMES
ETS sector coverage corresponds to the phase 3 ETS scope as
valid since 2013. ETS emissions are calibrated to 2005 and 2010
ETS CO2 emissions, with higher importance accorded to calibration
for 2005, based on verified emissions and estimates for scope
adjustments and additional sectors.
EU Reference scenario 2013
CO2eq) and for the different F-gases have a GWP
which ranges between 140 and 23900 depending on
the F-gas. The GAINS model estimates for CH4 and
N2O emissions in year 2005 are aligned with the
emissions reported by Member States to the UNFCCC (as of April 2012) by introducing country- and
gas specific calibration residuals. These carry over as
constants to all future years. The constants reflect
differences in the methodological approaches taken
by countries relative to the consistent GAINS model
approach, as well as minor emission sources which
countries report that are not captured in the GAINS
53
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
32
model structure . No calibration was conducted for
F-gas emissions, because of large variation between
by sector and in more detail - explaining drivers, current control and reasons for overall trends.
countries in the quality and completeness of the reported emissions.
Non-CO2 GHGs are emitted from a variety of sources
and sectors. Figure 46 shows the contribution of the
major sectors to total non-CO2 emissions in 2005 and
the projected development to 2050 in the Reference
scenario. Non-CO2 GHG emissions in EU28 are expected to decline from 903 to 728 Mt CO2eq between
2005 and 2030 and stabilize on that level throughout
the remaining projection period. The agricultural sector is a major contributor to emissions, responsible for
over 50% in 2005 and with only minimal decline expected in the future. The largest decline in emissions
is expected to take place in the waste and industry
sectors in response to existing control regulations.
FIGURE 46: NON-CO2 GHGS BY MAJOR SECTORS IN EU28
2005 TO 2050
1000
Calibration
Mt CO2 eq.
900
800
Other
700
AC & refrigeration
600
Wastewater
500
400
Waste
300
Industry
200
Energy
100
Agriculture
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
0
Table 8 provides an overview of the main national
policies affecting the Reference scenario non-CO2
GHG emissions projections in EU28. The relevant EU
level policies (see overview table in section 1.3) are
in particular the EU Landfill Directive and the EU Fgas regulation, as well as the EU ETS. In the following sections, the emission projections are described
The Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and
Synergies (GAINS) model is an integrated assessment
model developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for the purpose of describing policy-relevant pathways of atmospheric pollution from anthropogenic sources. Greenhouse gases
(GHGs) and many of the traditional air pollutants have
common sources, their emissions interact in the atmosphere, and separately or jointly they cause a variety of
environmental effects at the local, regional and global
scales. The GAINS model addresses emission control
strategies that simultaneously address air pollutants
and greenhouse gases.
The GAINS model was used to produce projections of
EU28 non-CO2 GHG emissions. The model includes
information on emission factors, technical control potentials and costs which when combined with economic,
energy and agricultural activity pathways from the
PRIMES and CAPRI models, result in consistent projections of future non-CO2 GHGs.
The Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact (CAPRI) model is an agricultural sector model with a focus
on Europe (disaggregation into 280 NUTS2 regions,
detailed activity data and coverage of Common Agricultural policies), but embedded in a global market model
to represent bilateral trade between 44 regions (countries or country aggregates). The main model outputs
are market balance data, prices, income and economic
welfare and, due to its high level of disaggregation in
the activity data, also various environmental indicators
like nutrient balances, erosion etc. (see www.caprimodel.org).
The CAPRI outlook systematically merges the information in historical time series with external projections
from other models or independent expert knowledge
while imposing technical consistency. Key external information came from the models PRIMES, GLOBIOM
and AGLINK, together with national expert information
on specific items. The key outputs (to GAINS) were the
activity data in the livestock sector plus mineral fertilizer
use in the crop sector.
32
A detailed description of the GAINS methodology for estimating
non-CO2 GHGs and projections for EU28 can be found in HöglundIsaksson, L., W. Winiwarter, P. Purohit: Non-CO2 greenhouse gas
emissions, mitigation potentials and costs in EU28 from 2005 to
2050, Part I: GAINS model methodology, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
54
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
TABLE 8 : MAIN NATIONAL POLICIES WITH SPECIFIC
EFFECTS ON NON-CO2 GHGS AND CONSIDERED IN
THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
RESULTS
FIGURE 47: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE AGRICULTURE
SECTOR IN EU28 BY SOURCE
600
Agricultural waste
burning -CH4
National policies
1
biodegradable
waste
Rice cultivation CH4
500
Austria, Belgium, Denmark,
Sheep -CH4
400
Germany, Netherlands, Sweden
2
National F-gas
policies
Austria, Belgium, Denmark,
Germany, Netherlands, Sweden
3
Subsidy scheme
for anaerobic digestion of manure
Netherlands
Mt CO2 eq.
Ban on landfill of
Poultry -CH4
300
Pigs -CH4
Non-dairy cattle CH4
200
Dairy cows -CH4
100
Manure -N2O
Agriculture sector
The main source of agricultural non-CO2 GHGs are
N2O emissions from microbial processes in soils.
They contribute to roughly half of agricultural nonCO2 GHGs in EU28, as shown in Figure 47. The activity driver for soil emissions used in GAINS is nitrogen input on agricultural lands, which is the sum of
the nitrogen contained in mineral fertilizers applied,
animal manure spread and crop residues left on
fields. Activity numbers used are Eurostat data, while
future trends in mineral fertilizer input on lands and
animal numbers are adopted from projections made
by the CAPRI model. Country-specific information on
crop residues and animal excretion rates are taken
from national reporting to the UNFCCC (2012) and
kept constant over time. N2O emissions from soils are
estimated at 251 Mt CO2eq in 2005 with a slight de-
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
0
Decomposing non-CO2 GHG emissions for the ETS
and the non-ETS sectors reveals different trends for
the two categories. Emissions from the ETS sectors
demonstrate a very significant decrease as they fall
90% from 2005 already by 2020 and slightly decrease thereafter (see section on industry sectors
below). These constitute however a small share of
overall non-CO2 GHGs (6% in 2005). The reduction
of emissions of gases from the non-ETS sectors is
less pronounced. In 2020 the reduction achieved is
11% relative to 2005. The trend continues to be decreasing reaching a 15% reduction in 2030. Beyond
2035, the trend is reversed and ultimately in 2050 the
reduction relative to 2005 is projected to be 13%.
Soils -N2O
The other major source of agricultural non-CO2
GHGs is livestock rearing (dairy and non-dairy cattle,
pigs, sheep and poultry) and accounts for 225 Mt
CO2eq in 2005 with a slight expected decline to 218
Mt CO2eq in 2030. CH4 emissions are released from
enteric fermentation in ruminants as well as management of animal manure, which gives rise to anaerobic conditions during which microbial activity
forms N2O and CH4 which are then released. Enteric
fermentation and manure management emissions
from dairy cows are driven by the development in
animal numbers as well as by changes in metabolic
activity: more productive cows (productivity expressed as milk yield per cow) tend to cause higher
emissions per animal. The increase in CH4 emissions
from dairy cows in Figure 48 results from an increased milk production and the combined effect of a
10 percent decline in animal numbers and a 30 percent expected increase in the average milk yield per
cow between 2005 and 2030.
For other animal categories, emissions are almost
exclusively driven by animal numbers. CH4 emissions
mainly from large pig farms are about 2 Mt CO2eq per
year lower than would be expected on the basis of
activity levels only due to the existing capacity to treat
manure in anaerobic digesters with energy recovery.
This is the result of national policies.
cline of 5 percent to 2030 due to declining trends in
mineral fertilizer use and cattle numbers (see Figure
47).
EU Reference scenario 2013
55
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
FIGURE 48: AGRICULTURE SECTOR ACTIVITY DRIVERS AND
EMISSIONS OF NON-CO2 GHGS IN EU28
Agriculture -activities
150
Pigs
140
in demand in countries which report higher leakage
rates. CH4 leakage from consumer gas distribution
networks declines faster than gas consumption due
130
Mineral fertilizer
120
2005=100
from this source does not decline proportionately with
gas consumption due to a relatively stronger increase
110
100
90
Non-dairy cattle
to effects of an on-going replacement of old town gas
networks in some EU countries expected to be com-
Dairy cows
pleted in 2030.
80
Sheep
70
60
Milkyield
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
50
FIGURE 49: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN
EU28 BY SOURCE
140
Agriculture non-CO2 GHGs
150
Mobile combustion
-N2O and CH4
120
Pigs -CH4
Stationary
combustion -N2O
and CH4
Gas distribution CH4
140
130
100
Dairy cows -CH4
Soils -N2O
110
100
Non-dairy cattle CH4
Manure -N2O
90
80
70
60
Mt CO2 eq.
2005=100
120
80
Long-distance gas
transmission -CH4
60
Natural gas
production -CH4
40
Oil production CH4
Sheep -CH4
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
50
20
Coal mining -CH4
leakage of CH4 from fossil fuel extraction and transportation and CH4 and N2O emissions from fuel combustion, as shown in Figure 49. N2O from combustion
sources is partly a direct by-product of combustion as
well as has been a side-effect of some NOx control
technologies on stationary and mobile combustion
33
sources . Some low-NOx technologies like fluidized
bed combustion or selective NO x reduction technologies reduce NOx emissions but may strongly increase
N2O emissions. The relative decline in N2O emissions
from combustion is stronger than the expected decline in total energy consumption, which is the result
of a fuel use shift in stationary sources away from
fluidized bed combustion of fossil solid fuels. CH 4
emissions from extraction of coal, natural gas and oil
decline in line with the expected reduction of fossil
fuel production in the EU. The driver for the projected
leakage from long-distance gas transmission is the
gas consumption in the respective country. Leakage
33
Mobile combustion sources refer to combustion in the transport
sector. For mobile sources, this problem seems to be solved with
today's technologies.
56
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
Energy sector
Energy sector sources of non-CO2 GHGs are fugitive
2005
0
Waste and wastewater sector
In 2005, the waste and wastewater sectors in EU28
are estimated to have released almost 150 Mt
CO2eq. Half of this amount comes from municipal
solid waste as shown in Figure 50. CH4 from solid
waste is released when biodegradable matter decomposes under anaerobic conditions in landfills or
during storage and handling of biodegradable waste
in different waste treatment processes. Due to the
slow decomposition of waste in landfills, GAINS
models future emissions as driven by the gross (pretreatment) amounts of waste generated ten to twenty
years before. Further parameters include the fraction
of the waste deposited on landfills and the effect on
emissions of current recovery and control of landfill
gas. The gross amounts of solid waste generated are
driven by GDP and urbanization rate for municipal
solid waste and by value added in the relevant manufacturing industries. The implementation of the EU
Landfill Directive is expected to reduce CH4 emissions from municipal and industrial solid waste by
almost 60 percent between 2005 and 2030. A modest
decline in emissions of 9 percent between 2005 and
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
2010 result from landfill gas recovery becoming mandatory from 2009, while the deeper cuts in emissions
emissions from domestic wastewater treatment decline assuming that with the natural turnover of capi-
between 2010 and 2030 are expected from the increased diversion of biodegradable waste away from
tal municipal wastewater treatment plants will become more effective in controlling CH4 emissions.
landfills through separation and treatment. Taking
This assumption does not apply to the more small-
into account the time lag between disposal and emission release from landfills, the full effect of the Landfill
scale treatment of industrial wastewater and therefore
CH4 emissions from industrial wastewater are ex-
Directive on CH4 emissions is achieved only in 2030.
Thereafter emissions start rising slowly driven by the
pected to grow proportionately to value added in the
relevant industries.
FIGURE 50: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE WASTE AND
WASTEWATER SECTOR IN EU28
Wastewater from households and organic processes
160
Wastewater N2O
in industry contain nitrogen and organic compounds
which wastewater treatment plants are decomposing
number of people connected to centralised (urban)
and decentralised (rural) collection of wastewater,
respectively. The activity data used to estimate CH4
emissions from industry wastewater is chemical oxygen demand (COD) in untreated wastewater from the
manufacturing of food, pulp and paper, and organic
chemical products. Projections of future emissions
are driven by growth in value added in respective industry. The EU Urban Wastewater Treatment Di-
Industrial solid
waste CH4
40
20
Municipal solid
waste CH4
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
0
2025
emissions from wastewater is total population. Driver
for CH4 emissions from domestic wastewater is the
60
2020
pected to remain at a level of about 40 Mt CO 2eq between 2005 and 2050. The activity driver for N2O
Domestic
wastewater CH4
80
2015
wastewater handling and treatment in EU28 is ex-
Industrial
wastewater CH4
100
2005
also CH4 and N2O are formed and released. Figure
50 shows that the release of CH4 and N2O from
120
Mt CO2 eq.
before discharge. The main gaseous products are
CO2 and molecular nitrogen but during the process
140
2010
expected future growth in GDP and industry value
added.
F-gas emissions
Emissions of fluorinated gases (F-gases) considered
here are HFCs, PFCs and SF6. HFCs are primarily
used as cooling agent in air conditioners (AC) and
refrigerators, but also as blowing agents in foams and
propellants for aerosols. Sources of PFC emissions
are primary aluminum production and semiconductor
industry, while SF6 serves a variety of uses in e.g.,
rective regulates the release of waterborne pollutants
high and mid voltage switches, magnesium production and casting, soundproof windows, sports and
in wastewater from urban households and food industry. “Appropriate treatment” must be in place by 2005.
military equipment. Although used in small quantities,
In GAINS, “appropriate treatment” is interpreted as a
conversion from primary mechanical treatment to
secondary/tertiary aerobic and/or anaerobic treatment. As a side-effect to improved water quality, such
the high warming potentials and long lifetimes in the
atmosphere make the contribution of these gases to
global warming significant in CO2-eq terms. Figure 51
shows how F-gas emissions in EU28 are expected to
conversions also reduce the formation and release of
fluctuate between 80 and 90 Mt CO2eq over the period 2005 to 2050, which represents an increasing
CH4. CH4 emissions from domestic and industrial
wastewater drop slightly between 2005 and 2010
share of total non-CO2 GHGs from 9 to 12 percent
primarily due to extensions of secondary/tertiary
wastewater treatment in some new Member States
(due to the overall decline in CH4 and N2O emissions).
but also as a result of more people being connected
to centralized wastewater treatment. After 2030 CH 4
EU Reference scenario 2013
57
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
FIGURE 51: F-GAS EMISSIONS IN EU28 BY SOURCE
Mt CO2 eq.
Other industry sources
100
2040. The decline in F-gas emissions between 2010
and 2015 seen in Figure 51 is due to compliance with
90
Other SF6
the EU F-gas regulation which requires leakage control and end-of-life recovery of HFCs from AC and
80
Soundproof windows
refrigeration equipment, limitations on the use of F-
Mg production and casting
gases as propellants for aerosols and foams and a
ban on SF6 use in various applications e.g., sound-
HCFC22 production
70
High & mid voltage switches
60
Semiconductor industry
Primary Al production
50
proof windows and sports equipment.
Solvents HFCs
40
Fire extinguishers
30
Heat pumps
Foams
20
Aerosols
10
Refrigerated transport
Mobile AC
0
Stationary AC &
refrigeration
Industry sectors covered by the EU ETS
Emissions of non-CO2 GHGs from sectors regulated
under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS)
since 2013 include N2O emissions from nitric and
adipic acid production and PFCs from primary
aluminum production. In 2005 these emissions
amounted to 57 Mt CO2eq or 6 percent of total non-
The fluctuating but relatively stable level of F-gas
CO2 GHGs in EU28. N2O emissions from nitric and
adipic acid production can be effectively controlled
emissions is the combined result of a strong increase
in demand for services offered by F-gases (e.g., cool-
through installation of existing low cost technology.
The marginal cost of these technologies is lower than
ing), replacement of the ozone-depleting substances
CFCs and HCFCs with HFCs in order to comply with
the carbon price in the EU-ETS thereby making
technology adoption profitable. This together with the
the Montreal Protocol, and effects of adopted regulations to control F-gas emissions. Demand for cooling
anticipation of the ETS inclusion, related Joint
and refrigeration in GAINS is primarily driven by eco-
Implementation projects and the economic crisis
explain the sharp decline of 70 percent in reported
nomic growth along with cooling degree days, commercial floor space and assumptions about technolo-
emissions between 2005 and 2010 shown in Figure
52, as well as the further decline.
34
gy penetration and saturation rates . The EU F-gas
regulation came into effect in 2006 and the EU Di-
FIGURE 52: NON-CO2 GHGS OF EU-ETS SECTORS IN
EU28
rective on mobile air-conditioning systems in steps
from 2008 onwards. Together with stricter national F-
70
60
gas legislation in several member states (Austria,
bilization in future F-gas emissions after 2010 shown
in Figure 51. The Reference projection does not take
40
30
20
account of the ongoing revision of the EU F-gas regu-
10
lation due to be adopted by 2014, aiming to significantly reduce emissions. Included in the Reference
0
Nitric acid
production
Adipic acid
production
Primary aluminium
production
scenario is the prohibition of high GWP cooling
agents in mobile air conditioners (MACs). It is as-
By 2020 the expected decline in emissions is 90 per-
sumed that the use of HFC-134a in MACs is replaced
by HFO-1234yf with a GWP of 4 resulting in an al-
cent due to full adoption of available and improved
technologies. PFC emissions from primary aluminum
most complete phase-out of these emissions by
production are linked to the use of older production
technologies. With the natural turnover of capital the
34
58
Mt CO2 eq.
Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands and Sweden) these regulations account for the expected sta-
50
Please see Höglund-Isaksson et al. 2013 for details.
older technologies are expected to be replaced by the
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
more efficient and less emitting point-feeder prebake
(PFPB) technology.
achieve the long-term objectives in the context of the
Roadmaps to 2050. More specifically, in line with the
Total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF)
EU's objective of -80 to -95% GHG emissions reduction in 2050 compared to 1990, the Roadmap for
Overall, in 2020, the corresponding GHG emissions
moving to a low carbon economy in 2050
targets are projected to be overachieved; total reduction in GHG emissions relative to 1990 is 24%, result-
milestone for GHG emissions reductions in the EU of
40% in 2030 relative to 1990 and 80% in 2050, while
ing from 22% reduction of CO2 emissions and 35%
the projections in the Reference 2013 scenario are
32% reduction in 2030 and 44% reduction in 2050.
reduction of emissions from non-CO2 gases. In the
ETS sectors, total GHG emissions are reduced by
36
sets a
24% relative to 2005, surpassing the target of 21%
due to the projected continuous build-up of an allow-
LULUCF emissions and removals and their drivers
ance surplus. Regarding non-ETS sectors, the target
of the ESD is overachieved at the EU level, with total
land use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) have
been estimated using the Global Biosphere Man-
emissions reducing by 15% in 2020 relative to 2005,
agement Model (GLOBIOM) and the Global Forest
surpassing the 10% target. Respective national targets are achieved domestically in the majority of
Model (G4M) models. Basic drivers, such as: GDP,
population development, energy demand, biomass
countries.
energy supply and productivity changes are generated by PRIMES and GEM-E3 or provided by global
Until 2030, developments (in particular in the power
databases . These drivers are then used by the economic bottom-up land use model GLOBIOM. Demand
sector) result in total GHG emissions reducing by
32% relative to 1990. Emissions of the ETS sectors
reduce by 36% compared to 2005, with 47% being
the corresponding figure for power generation alone.
Non-ETS sectors also see a decrease in emissions
but not as strong. Finally, in 2050 perspective, emissions continue to decrease, primarily driven by developments in power generation. Overall GHGs emissions are reduced by 44% relative to 1990 (46% for
CO2 emissions).
35
FIGURE 53: EVOLUTION OF GHG EMISSIONS
6000
Current and future CO2 emissions from the land use,
37
is endogenously produced by the model and matched
by supply of food, fodder, timber and energy. The
information between models flows not only in one
direction but is circulated between GLOBIOM and
G4M models iteratively, where relevant. While G4M is
used to estimate emissions from forest land, GLOBIOM estimates emissions from crop- and grassland.
Remaining emissions from wetlands, settlements and
other land (corresponding to UNFCCC accounts) are
not modeled explicitly and kept constant at 2010 levels until 2050.
Mt CO2
5000
4000
Table 9 gives a brief overview of the datasets and
3000
models used to estimate LULUCF areas and emission factors.
2000
1000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Non-ETS GHGs 2808 2667 2535 2383 2311 2238 2200 2176 2166 2165
ETS GHGs
2514 2180 2091 1913 1832 1606 1400 1271 1107 1024
Total GHGs
5322 4847 4626 4297 4142 3844 3601 3447 3273 3188
The decreasing trend in emissions beyond 2020 is
well pronounced, especially for the power generation
sector, however it is not sufficiently intense in order to
The EU28 LULUCF sector is at present a carbon sink
as it sequesters more carbon than it emits. The EU
LULUCF sink in the UNFCCC inventory was estimated between 288 Mt CO2 in 2000 and 296 Mt CO2 in
38
2010 which is around 20% above the projections
36
35
Excluding LULUCF emissions and removals. For comparability
reasons over time, ETS and non-ETS emissions for 2005 and 2010
are reported in ETS phase 3 scope as valid from 2013.
EU Reference scenario 2013
COM(2011)112
DG ECFIN publications are used for macro-economic projections.
38
Please see: http://unfccc.int.
37
59
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
delivered by GLOBIOM and G4M. The difference is
related to model and datasets uncertainties as well as
In general, forest management emissions are driven
by the balance of harvest removals and forest incre-
different modeling and reporting approaches applied.
The LULUCF sink is expected to be maintained until
ment rates (the growth of the biomass stored in a forest as a result of the growth of the trees with the
2050, even though it is projected to decline from
age). As harvesting removals increase over time re-
about -244 Mt CO2 in 2010, to -214 Mt CO2 in 2030
and -196 Mt CO2 in 2050 in the Reference scenario,
lated to growing demand for wood for products (such
as furniture or paper), the carbon sink in managed
which corresponds to a decrease from 2010 levels of
-12% by 2030 and -20% by 2050. This decline is the
forests declines significantly. Growing demand for
wood as projected by GLOBIOM is driven by popula-
result of changes in different land use activities of
which the forest sector changes are the most im-
tion and income growth as well as increasing wood
demand for renewable energy production. The signif-
portant. Figure 54 shows the projection of the total
icant decline in the managed forests carbon sink can
EU28 LULUCF sink in the Reference scenario until
2050 and the contribution from different activities.
however be partially compensated by a rising carbon
sink from afforestation, a decrease in deforestation
TABLE 9: METHODOLOGY USED TO ESTIMATE LULUCF
and increasing carbon storage in harvested wood
product. Since part of the harvested biomass is pro-
EMISSIONS
Afforestation/
reforestation (AR)
-50
Deforestation (D)
-100
Harvested Wood
Products (HWP)
-150
-200
Cropland (CL)
-250
-300
Grassland (GL)
-350
Wetlands, Settlements,
other land (WSOL)
-400
2050
-450
2045
Harvested
wood products
GLOBIOM estimate, calibrated
to historic level
(FAO, country
submission)
0
2040
UNFCCC data
Country level emission
factor based on UNFCCC data
50
2035
Settlements,
wetlands and
other land
Estimate of biophysical crop model (EPIC),
depending on soil,
climate and crop parameters
Forest management (FM)
100
2030
GLOBIOM estimate, calibrated
to historic level
(EUROSTAT)
G4M estimate based
on age class structure,
initial biomass stock,
management regime
etc.
FIGURE 54: EU28 LULUCF EMISSIONS UNTIL 2050 IN MT
CO2
2025
Grassland
management
forests that were established over the last 20 years
get into a phase of high biomass production.
2020
GLOBIOM estimate, calibrated
to historic level
(EUROSTAT)
Average biomass
stock estimated by
G4M, based on remote sensing map
tration from afforested areas increases due to that
fact that new forests are established but also young
2015
Cropland
management
emissions from deforestation continue to decrease in
line with historic trends. In addition, carbon seques-
2010
Forest management
Based on country
UNFCCC and
Kyoto data or
other data bases
(MCPFE)
wood products increases (see Figure 54). Until 2050,
Internal forest growth
model, simplified soil
emission estimate
based on literature
2005
Deforestation
cessed to final wood products which have a lifespan
of several years, the carbon sink from harvested
2000
Afforestation
G4M estimate,
based on GLOBIOM drivers,
calibrated to historic level (UNFCCC)
G4M estimate,
based on GLOBIOM drivers,
calibrated to historic level (UNFCCC)
Emission factor
Mt CO2
Area/Supply
estimate
LULUCF(FM,AR,D,HWP,C
L,GL,WSOL)
UNFCCC data
Activities in the agricultural sector have a smaller imIPCC default values
pact on the total LULUCF sink compared to the forest
sector. Still, net carbon emissions from cropland are
projected to decline by some 40% compared to 2010
due to the increasing cultivation of annual (e.g. miscanthus, switchgrass) and perennial lignocellulosic
60
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
crops (e.g. short rotation tree plantations) for renewable biomass based bioenergy production. Typically
2050, respectively. This is the result of different, partly, opposing trends. Increasing wood demand and
these plants provide more litter input into the soil and
management activities are less disturbing the soil,
corresponding rising harvesting removals are important drivers, but also a projected decline in the
leading to a reduced loss or even an accumulation of
forest growth rate due to ageing. Harvesting removals
soil carbon. Similarly, total emissions from grasslands
are expected to go down as more land is projected to
rise from 536 million m in 2010, to 620 million m in
3
2030 and 686 million m in 2050. At the same time,
be converted to grassland that typically tends to sequester additional carbon.
the carbon sink in managed forests declines from 303 Mt CO2 in 2010 to -127 Mt CO2 in 2030 and -24
3
3
Mt CO2 in 2050.
Figure 55 shows the EU28 LULUCF sector land balance until 2050. Over time, the forest area expands
Total harvest removals in EU28 increase steadily
by 4% in 2030 and 7% in 2050 compared to 2010 at
over time as well as the share wood removed for en-
the expense of cropland and grassland taken out of
production. Cropland and grassland areas remain at
ergy use in the total harvest (see Figure 56). This
share increases from 16% of total harvest in 2010, to
more or less constant levels. The area for perennial
crops (including annual lignocellulosic crops) for re-
17% in 2030 and 18% in 2050 as demand for renewable energy production rises. Despite a decrease of
newable energy production grows significantly and by
2030 7% of total cropland is cultivated with perennials
forest increment over time, in 2050 the increment is
3
with 777 million m still well above the total wood re-
(9% in 2050).
movals which sum up to 686 million m . Reasons for
3
FIGURE 55: EU28 LULUCF SECTOR LAND BALANCE IN
1.000 HA UNTIL 2050
Thousands
Areas (kha)
500
450
400
350
300
250
Land unclassified
in model
Accumulated
afforestation/
reforestation
Forest
management
Cropland
management
200
Grassland
management
150
Other land
the declining forest increment are a change in age
class structure towards a higher share of older forest
stands that grow at lower rates and a saturation of
biomass accumulation. European forests get older
but also thicker and therefore grow relatively slower
in the future. This trend might be reversed after 2050
following the more intensive use of forest (resulting in
reestablished younger forests stands) in the second
half of the century.
FIGURE 56: EU28 HARVEST REMOVALS AND INCREMENT IN
1.000 M3 UNTIL 2050
100
0
900000
Wetlands
800000
700000
Settlements
The following sections provide a more detailed overview of the drivers, emission projections and overall
trends by the different LULUCF sectors.
Thousand m3
50
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Emissions from forest land
The current net forest sink (the sum of forest management, afforestation and deforestation) is projected
to decrease from -299 Mt CO2 in 2010, to -208 Mt
CO2 in 2030 and -150 Mt CO2 in 2050 which corresponds to a decline by -31% and -50% in 2030 and
EU Reference scenario 2013
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Other removals
Removals for energy use
Increment of managed forest total
Simultaneously, the carbon sink in harvested wood
products increases from-19 Mt CO2 in 2010 to -61 Mt
61
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
CO2 in 2030 and -95 Mt CO2 in 2050 compensating
the reduced sink in the managed forest to some de-
16 Mt CO2 in 2050 (38% decrease). The main driver
for this decline is the projected establishment of short
gree. In addition, the carbon sink from afforested areas is also growing until 2050. Even though annual
rotation tree plantations and lignocellulosic crops for
renewable energy production which has a positive
afforestation and reforestation rates decrease over
effect on the amount of carbon stored in the soil
time, 11 million ha (Mha) of land will be afforested
until 2030, 16 Mha until 2050 (see Figure 55). In
compared to conventional crops. Another important
factor is the growing use of perennial crops such as
2030, already 8% of the total forest area will be newly
planted forests (10% in 2050). The total forest area is
miscanthus. The PRIMES biomass supply indicates
that with growing demand the supply of these crops
projected to increase from 140 Mha in 2010, to 146
Mha in 2030 and 150 Mha in 2050. In total, afforested
will grow because these are relatively cost-effective.
In 2030, the area covered by perennial crops sums
areas are projected to sequester 94 Mt CO2 in 2030
up to 7 Mha (7% of total cropland) and 9 Mha (9% of
and 130 Mt CO2 in 2050. With increasing age the
new forests get more and more into a phase of high
total cropland) in 2050. While carbon sequestration
from perennials increases over time, emissions from
production and become gradually available for wood
and biomass supply. Towards 2050 these forests are
conventional crops decrease as area declines. The
conventional crop area is projected to decrease by 2
therefore also taking harvest pressure from older forests and thus help to keep the sink up in managed
Mha until 2030 and 7 Mha until 2050.
existing forests. Figure 57 shows the development of
Another important factor influencing soil carbon emis-
the carbon sink in the forest sector until 2050.
sions from croplands is a saturation effect. Modeled
FIGURE 57: DEVELOPMENT OF THE EU28 CARBON SINK IN
THE FOREST SECTOR UNTIL 2050
100
50
0
Forest management
(FM)
-50
Afforestation/
reforestation (AR)
Mt CO2
-100
-150
-300
the equilibrium due to a change in management lead
to a new equilibrium. The emissions or removals towards the equilibrium get smaller over time as the
new management continues. This is especially true
for more intense management changes such as the
Deforestation (D)
conversion of annual crops into perennial crop cultivation. Emissions from cropland remaining cropland
Harvested Wood
Products (HWP)
decline from 16 Mt CO2 in 2010 to -3 Mt CO2 in 2030
and -5 Mt CO2 in 2050. Emissions from land convert-
-200
-250
soil carbon stocks converge towards equilibrium under a constant management regime. Disturbances of
total Forest sector
(FM, AR, D, HWP)
-400
ed to cropland rise from 9 Mt CO2 to 17 Mt CO2 in
2030 and 21 Mt CO2 in 2050 as land converted to
-450
cropland starts emitting carbon when being cultivat-
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
-350
ed. As a result total cropland emissions are expected
to decline over time (see Figure 54 ).
Emissions from deforestation continue to decrease
from 45 Mt CO2 in 2010, to 12 Mt CO2 in 2030 and 4
Mt CO2 in 2050 as deforestation drops from 74.000
The total cropland area is projected to increase slightly from 101 Mha in 2010, to 105 Mha in 2030 and 102
ha in 2010 to 7.000 ha in 2050. This development is
consistent with historic trends.
Mha in 2050 related to the increase in perennial crop
cultivation. Cropland remaining cropland declines
from 96 Mha in 2010 to 95 Mha in 2030 and 87 Mha
Emissions from cropland
Cropland is a net source of carbon dioxide emissions
in EU28 at present. Over time, emissions are project-
in 2050. Land converted to cropland increases from 5
Mha in 2010 to 10 and 15 Mha in 2030 and 2050 respectively.
ed to decrease from 26 Mt CO2 in 2010, to 14 Mt CO2
in 2030 (44% decrease in comparison to 2010) and
62
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Emissions from grassland
Grasslands are a net carbon source at present in the
EU28. Over time, however, they turn from being a net
source in 2010 with emissions of 4 Mt CO2 to a net
carbon sink of -5 Mt CO2 in 2030 and -12 Mt CO2
2050. This result is mainly driven by land converted
to grassland as this land use change tends to sequester carbon after conversion. Even though total
grassland area decreases marginally from 62 Mha to
61 Mha by 2050, land converted to grassland sequesters by 2030 14 Mt CO2 and by 2050 21 Mt CO2
and turns grasslands into a net carbon sink. Grassland remaining grassland declines from 60 Mha in
2010 to 56 Mha in 2030 and 53 Mha in 2050 due to
afforestation and expansion of perennials. Land converted to grassland increases from 2 Mha in 2010 to
5 Mha in 2030 and 8 Mha in 2050 in order to com-
RESULTS
reflected. Last but not least, strongly increasing international fossil fuel prices cause a significant further
upward effect on energy system costs, both through
direct fuel expenditures and indirectly through the
electricity prices. Overall, in 2020 total system costs
constitute 15% of the GDP, rising from 13% in
40
2010 .
Beyond 2020 and throughout the remaining projection period, energy costs continue to increase in absolute terms but at a slower rate, below GDP growth,
as the system reaps benefits from the investments
undertaken in the previous decade (notably via fuel
savings). In this period, the share of energy system
costs in GDP is gradually decreasing, reaching 2010
levels in 2050.
41
FIGURE 58: EVOLUTION OF ENERGY SYSTEM COSTS
Evolution of energy system costs
relative to GDP (%)
pensate for the loss of grasslands and meet livestock
feeding demand.
16
Decomposition of
energy system costs
(%)
Energy system costs/GDP
14
Emissions from other land
Emissions from other land, settlements and wetlands
are not modeled explicitly in GLOBIOM and kept con39
stant at 2010 levels as reported by UNFCCC . Emissions from wetlands amount to 5 Mt CO2, for settle-
12
10
71
64
60
76
29
36
40
24
2020
2030
2050
8
6
4
2
2010
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CAPEX
OPEX
ments they amount to 39 Mt CO2 and for other land 1
Mt CO2. In EU28, around 22 Mha is covered by wetlands, 27 Mha by settlements and 26 Mha by other
land according to UNFCCC reported data.
Total energy system and other mitigation costs
The considerable changes in the EU energy system
and projected international fuel price developments
drive strongly increasing energy system costs until
2020. This is attributable to direct capital expenditure
payments both on the demand side (e.g. building insulation, replacing equipment with more efficient appliances, etc. triggered by energy efficiency policies)
and on the supply side (refurbishment and new investments in power generation and transmission,
needed to replace the existing capital stock). Additionally, increasing capital expenditures in power
generation driven by the RES 2020 target are also
39
http://unfccc.int
EU Reference scenario 2013
Reflecting increasing capital intensiveness of the energy system, the share of CAPEX (capital costs and
direct efficiency investments) in total system costs
increases over time, reaching 40% in 2050 from 24%
in 2010 (excluding ETS auction payments). Auction
payments are very small compared to total energy
system costs; it should be noted that auction payments do not represent an actual economic cost, as
the revenues are recycled into the economy.
Regarding OPEX, overtime electrification of the residential and the tertiary sectors result in electricity
costs becoming the main OPEX component for these
sectors, instead of other fuel costs. The opposite ef40
Total system costs include total energy system costs, costs related to process-CO2 abatement and non-CO2 GHG abatement.
The energy system costs have been calculated on the basis of
nominal discount rates, despite the use of lower discount rates for
simulating economic decision making under framework conditions
that strongly foster energy efficiency (see part on modelling of
energy efficiency policies). Further modelling work will look into an
alternative cost reporting methodology.
41
Excluding ETS auction payments, given that they result in corresponding auction revenues.
63
RESULTS
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
fect is observed for the industrial sector, owing to decreasing long term electricity prices.
Conclusion
The portfolio of policies and binding targets that have
been adopted so far in the EU are expected to bring
about considerable changes in the energy system
relative to past trends. Key policies that have been
examined in the Reference scenario are GHG reduction policies like the EU ETS along with efforts to
reach targeted RES shares and improve significantly
energy efficiency, including CO2 standards for vehicles. The latter two policy lines strongly support GHG
reduction, involving a large number of synergies and
also some overlaps, e.g. regarding the downward
effect of RES electricity penetration and electricity
savings on ETS prices. This has been addressed in
modelling the binding 2020 GHG targets as effect of
the EU ETS, the RES targets and other policies. An
additional non-ETS target-related policy driver to ensure achievement turned out not to be necessary.
At the same time, competitive energy provision for
businesses as well as affordability of energy use are
key issues for economic and social development in
the EU. Therefore this scenario analysis has also focused on relevant indicators in this respect, showing
overall developments and potential trade-offs. Energy
security issues have also been addressed, thereby
giving a comprehensive picture on the possible implications of pursuing the adopted policies under the
macro-economic and world energy framework conditions that have been modelled on the basis of the
long term economic and demographic analyses undertaken in collaboration with Member States experts
(notably the EPC/DG ECFIN Ageing Report).
GHG reduction is progressing in all sectors, but decarbonisation is particularly strong in power generation given the large number of options for decarbonisation in this sector and despite the move towards
using more electricity. This higher electricity use reflects its convenience at use as well as the synergies
from replacing CO2 emitting fossil fuels (where CCS
is not feasible or not economic) with electricity, which
in turn is generated in a low carbon mode. Indeed,
the main characteristic of the future EU energy system is a significant reduction of the carbon intensity of
power generation. Another key feature is the decoupling of energy consumption from GDP growth, which
64
is more limited for electricity due to the increasing
shares of electricity in final energy consumption.
Overall, despite significant economic growth making
the EU economy 78% larger in 2050 than it was in
2010, there is a decline of total energy consumption
by 8%.
The period until 2020 involves the most sweeping
transitions due to the legally binding targets of the 2020-20 Energy and Climate Package, the provisions of
the EED and the CO2 regulations for LDVs. The projection indicates that the measures contained in the
EED combined with mandatory objectives on renewables, the EU ETS and other EU and national efficiency and climate policies, coupled with the steep
increase in fossil fuel prices, induce energy savings
of the order of 17% in 2020 relative to the benchmark
(Baseline 2007 scenario). RES targets would be
achieved, indeed slightly overachieved. Regarding
GHG emissions, target levels (for all sectors combined and for the non-ETS sectors) would be even
surpassed at the EU level. This is due to the economic crisis and a combination of policies that lead at an
EU aggregate level to lower non-ETS emissions than
resulting from the aggregate binding Member State
targets in the Effort Sharing Decision and rising ETS
surplus allowances until after 2020. Consequently, in
2020 GHG emissions fall by 24% compared to 1990,
further decreasing to 32% below the 1990 level in
2030 and by 44% in 2050. However, this significant
decrease falls still considerably short of the EU's
2050 GHG objective. The transitions of the 2010-20
decade set the ground for future developments. Beyond 2020, no RES targets have been agreed and no
additional efficiency policies are defined, although
efficiency measures continue to bear improvements
in energy consumption until 2030 and beyond (notably the long term effects of more energy efficient investment brought about by different measures including eco-design, CO2 standards for LDVs, etc. Energy
consumption in 2030 is 21% lower than the 2030 energy consumption of the benchmark case (Baseline
2007). Moreover, the continuation of the ETS, leading
to large decrease of ETS allowances throughout the
projection period, constitutes a significant driver of
continuing RES penetration, energy efficiency and
further emissions reduction. In 2030, GHG emissions
are projected to be reduced by 32% relative to 1990.
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
RESULTS
The changes that the power generation sector undergoes entail considerable capital intensive investments, as well as investments in the transmission
and distribution system. These have an upward effect
on electricity prices and energy system costs in the
transitional period until 2020, enhanced further by the
increased fossil fuel prices. Beyond 2020, however,
electricity prices stabilize and even decrease. A general effect on total energy system costs is that they
become more capital intensive over time. After having
undergone all the structural adjustments to cope with
the 2020 targets and policies, total energy system
costs grow slower than GDP, leading to decreasing
ratio of energy system costs to GDP in the period
2020-50.
Finally, the intense deployment of RES following notably the investment to achieve the 2020 targets results in sizeable decrease in external energy dependence. In the long run, however, the limited availability of indigenous fossil fuel resources (due to depletion of domestic resources) as well as limited additional biomass imports lead to total net energy imports increasing again (after 2035) This mainly concerns natural gas, which according to the projection
will play a crucial role in the context of emission reduction targets and as back-up for variable RES.
EU Reference scenario 2013
65
GLOSSARY
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
GLOSSARY
CHP therefore improves energy efficiency (see also:
cogeneration thermal plant).
Aviation: Aviation activity includes only intra-EU
(domestic and EU international) air transportation.
Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in aviation
reflects sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, irrespective of airplane destination. They approximately
correspond to all outgoing domestic and international
flights.
Efficiency for thermal electricity production: A
measure of the efficiency of fuel conversion into electricity and useful heat. It is calculated as heat and
electricity output divided by the calorific value of input
fuel.
Biofuels: Biofuels include ethanol, biodiesel, biokerosene and bio heavy.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS): Carbon capture and geological storage is a technique for trapping carbon dioxide emitted from large point sources,
compressing it, and transporting it to a suitable storage site where it is injected into the ground.
Carbon intensity: The amount of CO2 emitted per
unit of energy consumed or produced (t of CO 2/tonne
of oil equivalent (toe) or MWh).
CO2 Emissions to GDP: The amount of CO2 emitted
per unit of GDP (carbon intensity of GDP - t of CO2/M
Euro).
Cogeneration thermal plant: A system using a
common energy source to produce both electricity
and steam for other uses, resulting in increased fuel
efficiency (see also: CHP).
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plant (CCGT): A
technology which combines gas turbines and steam
turbines, connected to one or more electrical generators at the same plant. The gas turbine (usually
fuelled by natural gas or oil) produces mechanical
power, which drives the generator, and heat in the
form of hot exhaust gases. These gases are fed to a
boiler, where steam is raised at pressure to drive a
conventional steam turbine, which is also connected
to an electrical generator. This has the effect of producing additional electricity from the same fuel compared to an open cycle turbine.
Combined Heat and Power (CHP): This means cogeneration of useful heat and power (electricity) in a
single process. In contrast to conventional power
plants that convert only a limited part of the primary
energy into electricity with the remainder of this energy being discharged as waste heat, CHP makes use
of a greater proportion of this energy for e.g. industrial processes, district heating, and space heating.
66
Efficiency indicator in freight transport (activity
related): Energy efficiency in freight transport is calculated on the basis of energy use per tonne-km.
Given the existence of some methodological inconsistencies between transport and energy statistics,
absolute numbers (especially at the level of individual
Member States) might be misleading in some cases.
For that reason, the numbers given are only illustrative of the trends in certain cases.
Efficiency indicator in passenger transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in passenger transport
is calculated on the basis of energy use per passenger-km travelled. Issues related to consistency of
transport and energy statistics also apply to passenger transport (see also: Efficiency indicator in freight
transport).
Energy branch consumption: Energy consumed in
refineries, electricity and steam generation and in
other transformation processes.
Energy intensity: energy consumption/GDP or another indicator for economic activity.
Energy intensive industries: Iron and steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and
paper and pulp industries.
Energy Service Company (ESCO): A company that
implements a broad range of energy efficiency projects.
EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS):
A
scheme for greenhouse gas emissions allowance
trading within the Community, established by Directive 2003/87/EC in order to promote reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective and
economically efficient manner. Installations included
in the scheme are combustion plants, oil refineries,
coke ovens, iron and steel plants, and factories producing cement, glass, lime, brick, ceramics, pulp and
paper. Recent amendments (2008/101/EC and
2009/29/EC) have enlarged its scope to include aviation and further process emissions.
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Feed-in tariff: The price per unit (of electricity) that
an eligible renewable electricity generator receives
according to cost-based calculations for the specific
resource used.
Final energy demand: Energy consumed in the
transport, industrial, household, services and agriculture sectors; the latter two sectors are sometimes
aggregated and named "tertiary". It excludes deliveries to the energy transformation sector (e.g. power
plants) and to the energy branch. It includes electricity consumption in the above mentioned final demand
sectors.
Freight transport activity: Covers goods transport
GLOSSARY
changes – exports – bunkers (i.e. quantities supplied
to international sea-shipping).
Gross Inland Consumption/GDP: Energy intensity
indicator calculated as the ratio of total energy consumption to GDP – (toe/M Euro).
Hydro power plant: A plant that produces energy
through the use of moving water. In this report, hydro
excludes pumped storage plants that generate electricity during peak load periods by using water previously pumped into an elevated storage reservoir during off-peak periods when excess generating capacity
is available. Energy losses in pumping are accounted
for separately.
by road, rail and inland navigation. Road transport
activity is defined according to the nationality princi-
Inland navigation: Covers inland waterways and
ple, in line with the available statistics from EUROSTAT.
ing consistency with the energy balances. Interna-
Fuel cells: A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy
conversion device converting hydrogen and oxygen
into electricity and heat with the help of catalysts. The
fuel cell provides a direct current voltage that can be
used to power various electrical devices including
motors.
Fuel input to power generation: Fuel use in power
plants and CHP plants.
Gas: Includes natural gas, blast furnace gas, cokeoven gas and gasworks gas.
Generation capacity: The maximum rated output of
a generator, prime mover, or other electric power
production equipment under specific conditions designated by the manufacturer.
Geothermal plant: A plant in which the prime mover
is a steam turbine, which is driven either by steam
produced from naturally hot water or by natural steam
that derives its energy from heat in rocks or fluids
beneath the surface of the earth. The energy is extracted by drilling and/or pumping.
GINI coefficient: (or index) Measures distribution
inequalities present in statistics, such as income distribution variation among EU Member States. A Gini
coefficient of zero expresses an exactly equal income
between MS.
Gross Inland Consumption (or primary energy
consumption): Quantity of energy consumed within
the borders of a country. It is calculated as primary
production + recovered products + imports +/- stock
EU Reference scenario 2013
national maritime transport, for the purpose of ensurtional maritime is not included in the above category
as, according to EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to
bunkers.
Import dependency: Demonstrates the extent to
which a country relies upon imports in order to meet
its energy needs.
Non-fossil fuels: Nuclear and renewable energy
sources.
Non-energy uses: The use of petrochemicals and
other energy carriers for purposes other than energy
production, such as chemical feed-stocks, lubricants
and asphalt for road construction.
Nuclear power plant: A plant in which a nuclear fission chain reaction can be initiated, controlled, and
sustained at a specific rate for production of energy.
Oil: Includes crude oil, feed-stocks, refinery gas, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, gasoline, diesel oil,
fuel oil, naphtha and other petroleum products.
Peak devices: Gas turbines, internal combustion
engines and other small-scale thermal power plants
which are usually used to supply electricity in peak
hours.
Passenger transport activity: Passenger transport
activity covers road transport (buses and coaches,
passenger cars and vans, powered 2-wheelers), rail
transport, aviation and inland navigation. Tram and
metro activity is provided together with rail in the reporting by MS.
67
GLOSSARY
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Primary production: Total indigenous production. In
PRIMES result sheets (Appendix 2) it also includes
recovered products.
Renewable energy sources: Energy resources
which are naturally replenishing but flow-limited.
These are virtually inexhaustible but limited in the
amount of energy that is available per unit of time.
Renewable energy resources include: biomass,
waste energy, hydro, wind, geothermal, solar, wave
and tidal energy.
Solar power plant: A plant producing energy with
the use of radiant energy from the sun; includes solar
thermal and photovoltaic (direct conversion of solar
energy into electricity) plants.
Solids: Include both primary products (hard coal and
lignite) and derived fuels (patent fuels, coke, tar, pitch
and benzole).
Thermal power plants: Type of electricity generating
plant in which the source of energy for the prime
mover is heat (nuclear power plants are excluded).
Wind power plant: Typically, a group of wind turbines supplying electricity directly to a consumer, or
interconnected to a common transmission or distribution system. Offshore wind includes windmills located
at sea (coastal wind mills are usually included in onshore wind).
68
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC AND
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
EU Reference scenario 2013
69
APPENDIX 1
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
REFERENCE 2013
EU-28: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
485.6
2.5
503.6
2.4
517.0
2.4
524.9
2.3
528.2
2.3
526.5
2.2
0.4
-0.5
0.3
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
10725.4
12814.2
12301.4
14186.9
11000.9
1637.6
50.0
18.7
196.6
14246.4
15773.9
12738.2
1888.6
54.2
21.3
233.1
16667.7
18162.1
14903.3
2128.0
56.8
22.1
260.6
19150.8
20901.3
17103.5
2336.3
57.2
22.3
284.8
21944.1
24439.2
19561.1
2546.0
56.9
22.1
306.9
1.4
1.0
1.5
1.1
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.6
1.2
0.5
0.4
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.9
1.4
1.6
1.4
0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.7
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
68.6
98.4
221.6
78.3
106.6
247.7
88.4
116.6
283.7
94.1
124.3
316.3
98.3
128.6
350.1
1.3
0.8
1.1
1.2
0.9
1.4
0.6
0.6
1.1
0.4
0.3
1.0
engineering
652.1
789.2
920.6
1039.8
1158.3
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.1
63.6
267.3
703.0
0.0
56.4
301.8
786.8
0.0
48.4
330.8
901.0
0.0
42.5
355.0
988.2
0.0
38.7
386.2
1067.5
0.0
-1.2
1.2
1.1
-1.5
0.9
1.4
-1.3
0.7
0.9
-0.9
0.8
0.8
8324.6
4783.5
2147.8
9696.5
5686.6
2347.5
11479.6
6845.0
2676.6
13361.4
8111.4
2978.7
15507.4
9602.2
3301.3
1.5
1.7
0.9
1.7
1.9
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.0
1210.5
1470.3
1759.9
2071.2
2402.5
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.5
182.9
0.0
192.1
0.0
198.2
0.0
200.1
0.0
201.4
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.1
335.7
366.3
394.7
417.6
440.1
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
EU-27: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
481.1
2.5
499.2
2.4
512.4
2.4
520.3
2.3
523.6
2.3
521.9
2.2
0.4
-0.5
0.3
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
10670.6
12891.8
12256.0
14260.6
14189.9
15850.5
16600.1
18243.7
19073.1
20990.5
21858.7
24545.6
1.4
1.0
1.5
1.1
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.6
10961.3
1630.6
49.5
18.7
195.9
68.2
12689.8
1880.8
53.7
21.3
232.4
77.9
14846.2
2119.2
56.3
22.1
259.7
87.9
17039.7
2326.6
56.6
22.3
283.8
93.6
19493.4
2535.9
56.2
22.1
305.8
97.7
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.3
1.7
1.3
1.6
1.2
0.5
0.4
1.1
1.2
1.4
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.6
1.4
0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.8
0.4
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
98.0
220.1
651.4
63.3
106.1
246.0
788.2
56.2
116.0
281.8
919.4
48.1
123.6
314.2
1038.4
42.2
127.8
348.0
1156.9
38.5
0.8
1.1
1.9
-1.2
0.9
1.4
1.6
-1.5
0.6
1.1
1.2
-1.3
0.3
1.0
1.1
-0.9
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
265.3
700.3
8295.2
4770.5
2140.4
1203.6
299.1
783.7
9659.6
5669.6
2338.7
1461.5
327.9
897.5
11435.4
6824.9
2665.7
1749.0
351.7
984.5
13311.6
8088.8
2966.5
2058.7
382.8
1063.6
15454.4
9578.1
3288.3
2389.1
1.2
1.1
1.5
1.7
0.9
2.0
0.9
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.3
1.8
0.7
0.9
1.5
1.7
1.1
1.6
0.9
0.8
1.5
1.7
1.0
1.5
180.7
335.2
189.8
365.8
195.7
394.1
197.6
417.0
198.9
439.6
0.5
0.9
0.3
0.7
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.5
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3
70
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 1
REFERENCE 2013
Austria: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
8.0
2.5
8.4
2.3
8.6
2.3
8.8
2.2
9.0
2.2
9.0
2.1
0.5
-0.9
0.3
-0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
245.5
17068.5
286.2
18640.0
258.6
45.6
2.9
0.8
3.8
337.7
21391.7
305.1
55.0
3.1
1.1
4.3
385.4
23858.8
348.2
61.2
3.2
1.1
4.6
442.5
27437.8
399.4
65.4
3.2
1.2
5.1
507.4
32265.1
457.1
71.6
3.1
1.2
6.1
1.5
0.9
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.9
0.7
4.0
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.3
1.1
0.2
-0.2
0.8
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.7
0.0
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.4
0.9
-0.3
0.1
1.8
2.3
2.7
4.7
2.6
3.1
4.9
2.8
3.6
5.6
3.0
3.8
6.3
3.1
4.0
7.1
1.1
1.2
0.3
1.1
1.5
1.5
0.4
0.7
1.1
0.4
0.5
1.3
19.1
25.9
29.5
30.6
32.4
3.1
1.3
0.4
0.6
1.0
8.3
17.7
0.0
0.8
9.3
19.7
0.0
0.7
10.0
21.5
0.0
0.6
11.7
23.5
0.0
0.6
14.1
25.2
0.0
-1.8
1.2
1.1
-1.4
0.7
0.9
-1.5
1.6
0.9
-0.7
1.9
0.7
188.5
103.6
45.9
223.0
122.1
52.4
257.7
139.7
59.4
302.2
163.8
68.9
351.7
192.4
79.1
1.7
1.7
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
35.1
44.4
54.5
65.3
75.9
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.5
3.8
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.2
0.0
4.2
0.0
4.2
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
6.9
7.5
7.7
8.3
8.7
0.8
0.3
0.7
0.5
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Belgium: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
10.2
2.4
10.8
2.3
11.6
2.3
12.2
2.2
12.7
2.2
13.1
2.2
0.6
-0.5
0.7
-0.1
0.5
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.1
308.9
15914.2
354.7
17295.0
409.2
18178.4
474.6
20285.7
563.4
23397.8
668.8
27170.5
1.4
0.8
1.4
0.5
1.5
1.1
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.5
315.8
40.8
2.4
0.8
10.0
2.6
364.3
47.6
2.4
1.0
12.0
3.0
422.5
54.4
2.5
1.1
13.3
3.5
501.0
63.7
2.5
1.2
14.8
3.9
593.8
74.1
2.5
1.2
16.4
4.2
1.4
1.6
0.3
2.3
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.3
0.1
1.3
1.0
1.5
1.7
1.6
0.1
0.1
1.1
1.2
1.7
1.5
0.1
0.2
1.1
0.7
3.3
6.4
9.4
1.9
3.9
7.1
12.0
1.7
4.9
8.0
14.7
1.4
5.7
9.5
19.0
1.2
6.4
11.3
24.1
1.2
1.7
1.0
2.4
-1.3
2.2
1.3
2.1
-1.9
1.6
1.7
2.6
-1.1
1.1
1.7
2.4
-0.5
4.1
18.0
245.3
133.1
69.8
40.2
4.6
20.8
283.3
159.9
76.3
44.7
5.1
23.1
331.1
192.2
84.9
51.6
6.0
26.2
395.7
234.6
97.6
61.1
6.9
30.0
472.6
286.9
111.4
71.8
1.1
1.5
1.4
1.9
0.9
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.6
1.9
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.8
2.0
1.4
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.8
2.0
1.3
1.6
2.3
11.7
2.4
12.7
2.4
13.8
2.5
15.4
2.5
17.1
0.4
0.8
0.1
0.9
0.1
1.1
0.0
1.1
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3
EU Reference scenario 2013
71
APPENDIX 1
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
REFERENCE 2013
Bulgaria: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
8.2
2.7
7.6
2.6
7.1
2.5
6.6
2.4
6.2
2.3
5.9
2.2
-0.8
-0.3
-0.6
-0.3
-0.7
-0.3
-0.6
-0.4
-0.6
-0.4
24.2
1778.1
36.1
2992.1
31.0
5.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
45.1
3996.8
38.8
6.4
0.2
0.1
0.4
51.5
5008.7
44.4
7.3
0.2
0.2
0.5
59.2
6306.6
50.9
8.4
0.2
0.2
0.5
64.9
7437.8
55.7
9.2
0.3
0.2
0.5
4.1
5.3
2.3
2.9
2.3
2.0
3.9
1.5
1.9
1.3
2.3
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.4
1.0
1.4
2.3
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.7
0.5
0.9
1.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
0.3
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
0.3
0.2
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.9
0.5
0.4
1.0
0.5
0.5
1.1
2.0
2.1
1.7
1.5
2.4
0.6
1.6
2.2
1.1
0.8
1.7
0.7
engineering
1.5
2.0
2.6
3.2
3.6
2.9
2.4
2.1
1.2
0.8
1.0
2.2
0.0
0.9
1.3
2.6
0.0
0.8
1.4
2.8
0.0
0.7
1.7
3.1
0.0
0.6
1.9
3.4
0.0
0.5
1.9
1.6
-1.6
1.5
0.7
-0.8
1.4
1.1
-0.8
1.6
0.7
21.8
13.7
4.0
27.7
18.1
4.7
32.0
21.0
5.1
36.8
24.2
5.8
40.4
26.4
6.1
2.4
2.8
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.5
trade
2.5
3.3
4.1
5.1
6.3
2.8
2.3
2.2
2.0
agriculture
1.5
0.0
1.6
0.0
1.7
0.0
1.7
0.0
1.7
0.0
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.6
2.7
1.7
0.7
1.0
0.6
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Croatia: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
4.5
2.6
4.4
2.4
4.6
2.3
4.7
2.3
4.6
2.3
4.6
2.2
-0.2
-0.9
0.5
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
35.3
4528.9
45.9
5875.4
56.6
7299.8
67.6
9046.7
77.7
10816.9
85.4
12291.1
2.7
2.6
2.1
2.2
1.8
2.2
1.4
1.8
0.9
1.3
39.6
7.0
0.5
0.0
0.7
0.4
48.4
7.8
0.5
0.0
0.8
0.4
57.1
8.8
0.6
0.0
0.9
0.5
63.8
9.7
0.6
0.0
1.0
0.5
67.6
10.1
0.6
0.0
1.1
0.6
2.0
1.1
0.7
0.6
1.4
1.1
1.7
1.2
0.9
0.7
1.6
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.4
1.2
1.3
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
1.2
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.3
0.5
1.7
1.0
0.3
0.6
1.9
1.2
0.2
0.7
2.0
1.4
0.2
0.8
2.2
1.4
0.2
1.3
1.8
4.6
-0.1
1.3
1.2
2.0
-1.1
1.5
0.8
1.2
-1.2
1.3
0.5
0.2
-1.0
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
2.0
2.6
29.4
13.0
7.4
6.9
2.7
3.1
36.9
17.0
8.8
8.8
3.0
3.4
44.3
20.1
10.9
10.9
3.3
3.7
49.8
22.6
12.2
12.5
3.4
3.9
53.0
24.2
13.0
13.4
2.7
1.5
2.3
2.8
1.8
2.5
1.1
1.1
1.8
1.7
2.1
2.1
1.0
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.4
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
2.2
0.5
2.3
0.5
2.4
0.6
2.5
0.6
2.5
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
agriculture
Energy sector and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Source: GEM-E3
72
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 1
REFERENCE 2013
Cyprus: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0.7
3.1
0.8
2.7
0.9
2.6
1.0
2.5
1.0
2.4
1.1
2.3
1.5
-1.4
1.0
-0.2
1.0
-0.3
0.6
-0.5
0.5
-0.3
13.1
12052.6
17.3
14352.5
15.6
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
19.8
15011.4
17.8
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
24.1
16844.6
21.7
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
30.3
19994.5
27.2
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.1
36.2
22729.6
32.5
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
2.8
1.8
1.3
0.4
1.3
0.6
-0.2
2.0
1.2
2.0
1.4
0.7
2.3
1.7
2.3
2.0
1.3
1.8
1.3
1.8
1.3
1.0
2.4
1.5
1.6
1.0
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.4
1.4
0.3
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.2
2.1
0.9
1.4
1.5
engineering
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
1.3
1.7
2.6
1.1
0.0
0.2
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.3
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
2.4
0.0
-1.1
0.6
0.3
-1.1
1.4
1.2
-0.2
2.2
2.1
-0.3
1.8
1.7
12.9
7.2
3.4
14.9
8.6
3.4
18.5
10.8
3.9
23.3
13.7
4.9
27.9
16.8
5.8
1.5
1.8
-0.1
2.2
2.3
1.6
2.3
2.4
2.3
1.8
2.1
1.6
trade
1.9
2.6
3.3
4.3
5.0
3.2
2.6
2.6
1.5
agriculture
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
1.0
1.1
0.8
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Czech Republic: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
10.3
2.6
10.5
2.3
10.8
2.3
10.8
2.3
10.7
2.2
10.7
2.2
0.2
-1.1
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
107.0
5471.8
149.3
7150.8
184.3
8521.4
218.8
10163.0
255.9
12200.1
290.0
14231.3
3.4
2.7
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.3
1.6
134.7
31.5
1.0
0.2
1.7
1.8
166.2
38.1
1.1
0.2
2.1
1.9
197.3
46.1
1.3
0.2
2.3
2.1
230.5
54.3
1.4
0.2
2.6
2.3
260.7
61.5
1.4
0.2
2.8
2.4
2.1
1.9
1.5
0.6
2.0
0.8
1.7
1.9
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.6
1.7
0.9
1.6
1.4
0.8
1.2
1.2
-0.1
0.5
0.8
0.7
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
1.2
3.3
15.2
1.0
1.3
3.8
19.8
1.0
1.4
4.2
25.8
0.8
1.6
4.8
31.7
0.8
1.8
5.4
36.9
0.7
0.8
1.3
2.7
0.0
1.1
1.2
2.7
-1.5
1.2
1.3
2.1
-1.0
1.0
1.1
1.5
-0.7
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
6.2
9.7
85.7
48.6
20.7
14.2
7.0
11.3
108.2
62.4
24.5
18.9
7.9
12.5
129.4
75.3
27.9
23.8
8.9
13.9
152.4
89.5
31.3
29.1
9.8
15.3
174.2
103.0
33.9
34.8
1.2
1.5
2.4
2.5
1.7
2.9
1.2
1.0
1.8
1.9
1.3
2.3
1.2
1.1
1.7
1.7
1.2
2.0
1.0
0.9
1.3
1.4
0.8
1.8
2.3
7.7
2.3
8.6
2.3
9.4
2.4
9.8
2.5
9.8
0.3
1.2
0.1
0.8
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.0
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3
EU Reference scenario 2013
73
APPENDIX 1
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
REFERENCE 2013
Denmark: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
5.3
2.2
5.5
2.1
5.7
2.1
5.9
2.1
6.0
2.1
6.0
2.1
0.4
-0.6
0.3
0.0
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
222.7
18517.2
235.6
20644.0
202.8
23.4
0.2
0.1
3.6
270.4
23144.3
232.8
25.8
0.2
0.1
4.1
314.9
26559.2
271.0
28.9
0.2
0.1
5.0
364.1
30797.8
313.1
32.9
0.2
0.1
6.1
430.5
37142.4
369.5
37.5
0.2
0.1
7.4
0.6
1.1
1.4
1.1
1.4
1.0
-0.1
1.8
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.1
0.0
0.4
2.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.3
-0.2
0.0
2.0
1.7
1.9
1.7
1.3
0.1
0.1
1.8
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
0.8
0.9
4.2
0.9
1.0
4.5
0.9
1.0
5.0
1.0
1.1
5.5
1.2
1.3
6.5
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.1
1.6
1.2
1.6
engineering
9.3
10.3
11.4
13.0
14.5
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.1
0.3
4.0
9.5
0.0
0.3
4.5
10.5
0.0
0.2
5.0
11.9
0.0
0.2
5.6
13.0
0.0
0.2
6.1
14.5
0.0
-1.6
1.1
1.0
-1.7
1.2
1.2
-1.2
1.0
1.0
-0.2
1.0
1.0
159.6
83.4
50.0
185.6
95.0
57.4
219.2
111.0
67.7
255.4
129.5
77.8
305.1
157.2
90.7
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.8
2.0
1.6
23.5
30.6
37.7
45.4
54.4
2.6
2.1
1.9
1.8
2.6
0.0
2.7
0.0
2.7
0.0
2.8
0.0
2.8
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
10.4
10.8
11.0
11.7
12.4
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.7
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Estonia: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
1.4
2.4
1.3
2.1
1.3
2.1
1.3
2.1
1.2
2.1
1.2
2.1
-0.2
-1.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
10.1
3731.5
14.3
5558.7
19.4
7912.2
24.1
10494.5
28.8
13346.5
32.2
15739.7
3.5
4.1
3.1
3.6
2.2
2.9
1.8
2.4
1.1
1.7
12.5
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
17.0
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
21.0
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
25.1
3.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
28.1
4.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
3.1
3.5
7.2
2.8
1.4
5.3
2.2
1.5
2.5
1.1
1.5
1.3
1.8
1.3
1.4
-0.3
1.2
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.8
-0.4
0.4
0.4
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
0.1
0.3
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.4
1.2
0.1
0.2
0.4
1.3
0.1
0.2
0.5
1.6
0.1
0.2
0.5
1.7
0.1
2.9
2.9
4.7
1.3
2.0
1.9
1.3
-0.6
1.2
1.4
1.6
-0.7
1.0
0.9
0.9
-0.8
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
0.6
0.7
9.1
5.1
2.0
1.5
0.8
0.9
12.4
7.3
2.6
2.1
0.9
1.0
15.8
9.4
3.2
2.7
1.0
1.2
19.1
11.7
3.5
3.4
1.1
1.4
21.7
13.4
3.7
4.1
2.6
2.2
3.2
3.5
2.7
3.5
1.7
1.7
2.4
2.6
1.8
2.7
1.2
1.7
1.9
2.2
1.1
2.2
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.4
0.5
1.8
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.7
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.6
1.5
0.8
-0.1
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3
74
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 1
REFERENCE 2013
Finland: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
5.2
2.3
5.4
2.1
5.6
2.1
5.7
2.1
5.7
2.1
5.7
2.1
0.3
-0.8
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
150.5
14733.0
179.7
18488.9
156.6
28.0
0.7
0.4
2.5
211.9
20939.6
184.6
32.8
0.9
0.5
2.7
243.5
23714.2
212.0
37.1
0.9
0.5
3.0
284.2
28035.5
247.3
41.3
0.9
0.5
3.2
329.4
33245.6
286.1
45.5
1.0
0.6
3.4
1.8
2.3
1.7
1.3
1.7
1.6
2.9
1.8
0.8
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.2
0.2
0.1
1.0
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.1
0.2
0.2
0.7
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.7
1.0
3.8
2.7
1.2
3.9
3.0
1.4
4.2
3.4
1.5
4.4
4.1
1.6
4.6
4.6
1.9
0.2
1.0
1.6
0.8
1.5
1.0
0.5
1.7
0.3
0.4
1.3
11.9
15.0
17.3
19.5
21.5
2.3
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.4
4.6
10.4
0.0
0.4
5.3
11.8
0.0
0.3
6.0
13.1
0.0
0.3
6.9
14.5
0.0
0.3
8.1
15.7
0.0
-1.0
1.4
1.3
-1.5
1.3
1.1
-1.0
1.4
1.0
-0.8
1.5
0.8
113.6
60.1
33.1
134.7
72.3
38.2
156.0
83.8
43.2
185.2
100.7
49.6
218.1
121.1
56.4
1.7
1.9
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.7
1.9
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.3
15.6
19.3
24.1
30.0
35.8
2.2
2.3
2.2
1.8
4.8
0.0
4.9
0.0
4.9
0.0
4.9
0.0
4.8
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
4.6
5.2
5.8
6.3
6.8
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.8
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
France: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
58.9
2.4
62.8
2.3
65.8
2.3
68.2
2.3
70.1
2.2
71.0
2.2
0.6
-0.3
0.5
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
1726.6
16201.1
1932.8
17903.9
2256.9
19773.7
2698.9
22675.5
3163.4
25848.6
3703.3
29918.6
1.1
1.0
1.6
1.0
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.6
1.5
1738.0
175.0
3.9
1.4
18.1
7.7
2029.3
203.7
4.0
1.7
20.8
8.8
2426.3
242.6
3.8
1.8
23.1
10.1
2840.9
276.6
3.5
1.8
25.0
11.3
3320.0
310.9
3.5
1.8
26.5
12.6
1.6
1.5
0.1
1.8
1.4
1.3
1.8
1.8
-0.6
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.3
-0.6
0.3
0.8
1.1
1.6
1.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
1.1
7.3
29.4
61.9
5.0
8.6
34.2
73.7
4.5
10.1
40.7
97.6
3.8
11.8
46.8
114.4
3.2
13.7
54.7
127.8
3.0
1.6
1.5
1.8
-1.0
1.6
1.7
2.8
-1.7
1.6
1.4
1.6
-1.6
1.5
1.6
1.1
-0.8
40.2
104.4
1428.3
820.6
393.1
184.5
47.4
117.2
1674.9
958.9
456.5
227.4
51.8
133.8
2015.1
1156.4
542.9
282.9
58.7
148.8
2379.9
1382.1
622.9
341.9
67.4
162.6
2810.3
1663.5
710.1
403.6
1.7
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
2.1
0.9
1.3
1.9
1.9
1.7
2.2
1.3
1.1
1.7
1.8
1.4
1.9
1.4
0.9
1.7
1.9
1.3
1.7
30.1
32.1
32.8
33.0
33.1
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
30.3
33.5
34.8
35.7
36.2
1.0
0.4
0.3
0.2
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3
EU Reference scenario 2013
75
APPENDIX 1
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
REFERENCE 2013
Germany: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
82.2
2.2
81.8
2.1
80.1
2.1
77.9
2.1
74.8
2.1
70.8
2.1
0.0
-0.6
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.5
-0.1
2257.7
16649.9
2476.8
17395.9
2216.5
460.0
16.1
6.2
56.4
2801.8
19401.3
2507.1
517.1
17.3
6.7
64.8
2997.7
21234.4
2682.1
537.5
18.0
6.5
68.7
3185.2
23682.7
2846.8
551.5
17.6
6.2
71.7
3465.8
27991.8
3092.3
573.9
17.3
6.0
75.8
0.9
0.4
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
0.8
0.8
1.4
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.4
-0.3
0.6
0.6
1.1
0.6
0.3
-0.2
-0.4
0.4
0.8
1.7
0.8
0.4
-0.2
-0.4
0.6
14.3
18.9
38.3
14.8
20.0
40.0
15.1
20.7
42.3
14.9
20.6
43.5
14.7
20.0
45.1
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.6
-0.1
0.0
0.3
-0.2
-0.3
0.3
238.3
281.2
292.9
307.9
327.1
1.7
0.4
0.5
0.6
6.8
64.9
96.3
0.0
5.5
66.7
102.5
0.0
4.2
69.2
105.5
0.0
3.3
65.7
108.5
0.0
2.8
65.3
114.7
0.0
-2.0
0.3
0.6
-2.6
0.4
0.3
-2.4
-0.5
0.3
-1.8
-0.1
0.6
1596.3
965.0
405.0
1816.4
1131.0
437.9
1964.5
1258.3
452.7
2110.2
1381.1
466.9
2323.6
1531.8
504.0
1.3
1.6
0.8
0.8
1.1
0.3
0.7
0.9
0.3
1.0
1.0
0.8
207.6
228.3
233.7
242.9
269.3
1.0
0.2
0.4
1.0
18.7
0.0
19.1
0.0
19.8
0.0
19.3
0.0
18.5
0.0
0.3
0.4
-0.3
-0.4
64.0
71.1
74.6
76.7
80.1
1.1
0.5
0.3
0.4
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
Greece: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy sector and others
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
10.9
2.8
11.3
2.7
11.5
2.6
11.6
2.5
11.6
2.4
11.6
2.3
0.4
-0.5
0.2
-0.3
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
184.1
11778.0
227.3
14981.1
227.1
14620.3
256.6
16014.1
289.3
17225.0
322.1
18255.4
2.1
2.4
0.0
-0.2
1.2
0.9
1.2
0.7
1.1
0.6
200.6
18.2
1.1
0.7
2.0
1.3
200.4
19.4
1.1
0.8
2.1
1.5
226.4
21.4
1.1
0.8
2.4
1.6
255.0
23.2
1.1
0.9
2.6
1.6
283.5
25.1
1.1
0.9
2.8
1.7
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.8
0.8
2.1
1.2
1.0
0.0
0.4
1.1
0.3
1.2
0.8
-0.1
0.6
0.8
0.3
1.1
0.8
0.0
0.5
0.9
0.2
1.7
6.7
2.1
0.9
1.7
7.1
2.1
0.9
1.8
8.4
2.4
0.8
2.0
9.8
2.6
0.8
2.1
11.2
2.9
0.7
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.7
1.7
1.1
-1.3
0.7
1.5
1.1
-1.0
0.5
1.3
1.0
-0.7
1.8
10.7
165.1
96.5
37.2
25.1
1.9
10.5
163.9
99.8
32.8
24.9
2.1
11.0
187.3
116.0
36.1
28.8
1.8
11.6
213.4
132.7
41.4
32.8
1.8
12.3
239.2
151.7
43.9
37.0
0.7
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
-1.3
-0.1
0.7
0.4
1.3
1.5
1.0
1.5
-1.1
0.5
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3
-0.3
0.6
1.1
1.4
0.6
1.2
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.6
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.9
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Source: GEM-E3
76
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 1
REFERENCE 2013
Hungary: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
10.2
2.5
10.0
2.3
9.9
2.3
9.7
2.2
9.4
2.2
9.2
2.1
-0.2
-0.8
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
79.9
4233.0
97.1
5164.2
82.1
16.9
0.2
0.2
1.6
106.6
5708.5
90.1
18.6
0.3
0.2
1.9
127.3
6941.5
107.6
22.4
0.4
0.2
2.2
146.5
8236.3
123.7
25.7
0.4
0.2
2.5
162.0
9438.4
136.6
28.4
0.4
0.2
2.6
2.0
2.0
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.0
6.1
3.5
1.3
1.8
2.0
1.8
1.9
0.9
0.5
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.4
1.4
0.4
0.1
1.3
1.0
1.4
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.4
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
0.5
0.6
1.9
0.6
0.6
2.0
0.7
0.7
2.3
0.8
0.8
2.6
0.8
0.9
2.9
0.9
0.9
0.3
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.0
1.2
1.3
0.7
0.9
0.9
engineering
9.1
10.2
12.6
14.7
16.7
1.1
2.2
1.6
1.3
0.4
2.4
3.6
0.0
0.3
2.5
4.0
0.0
0.3
3.0
4.7
0.0
0.2
3.4
5.4
0.0
0.2
3.7
6.0
0.0
-1.9
0.8
1.1
-1.8
1.7
1.7
-1.6
1.2
1.4
-1.4
0.8
1.0
57.4
31.8
14.5
63.2
35.0
15.4
75.8
42.3
17.9
87.6
49.6
19.9
97.1
56.1
20.8
1.0
0.9
0.6
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.0
1.0
1.2
0.4
trade
8.0
9.5
12.0
14.4
16.4
1.8
2.3
1.9
1.3
agriculture
3.1
0.0
3.4
0.0
3.6
0.0
3.7
0.0
3.8
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.2
4.1
4.3
4.6
4.9
5.0
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.2
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Ireland: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
3.8
3.0
4.5
2.8
4.8
2.7
5.3
2.6
5.8
2.6
6.2
2.6
1.7
-0.6
0.8
-0.6
0.9
-0.1
0.9
-0.1
0.8
-0.1
123.2
16548.0
156.0
17747.3
191.6
18695.9
262.2
23044.2
324.6
25755.6
385.9
28220.3
2.4
0.7
2.1
0.5
3.2
2.1
2.2
1.1
1.7
0.9
141.1
36.7
0.1
0.1
15.5
0.6
173.4
46.0
0.2
0.1
19.5
0.7
237.2
60.5
0.2
0.1
25.2
0.9
293.3
72.8
0.2
0.1
28.1
1.0
348.2
84.6
0.2
0.1
30.8
1.1
2.1
2.3
0.6
1.2
2.3
2.0
3.2
2.8
1.8
1.1
2.6
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.0
0.3
1.1
1.6
1.7
1.5
0.9
0.3
0.9
0.8
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
4.7
6.4
7.4
0.2
5.9
7.9
9.6
0.2
6.1
10.7
14.6
0.2
7.1
13.1
19.9
0.2
7.9
15.4
25.4
0.2
2.2
2.1
2.5
0.2
0.4
3.2
4.3
0.2
1.5
2.0
3.2
-0.6
1.0
1.6
2.4
-0.4
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
1.7
4.5
97.6
53.3
28.5
13.4
2.1
6.0
118.6
70.3
28.1
17.5
2.6
7.5
165.3
105.1
33.9
23.5
3.1
8.9
207.0
136.4
39.3
28.4
3.5
10.2
248.2
168.9
43.7
32.6
2.1
3.0
2.0
2.8
-0.2
2.8
2.2
2.2
3.4
4.1
1.9
3.0
1.8
1.8
2.3
2.6
1.5
1.9
1.4
1.4
1.8
2.2
1.1
1.4
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.8
3.9
2.9
4.6
3.0
5.2
0.7
2.1
0.6
3.3
0.4
1.6
0.3
1.1
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
agriculture
Energy sector and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Source: GEM-E3
EU Reference scenario 2013
77
APPENDIX 1
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
REFERENCE 2013
Italy: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
56.9
2.6
60.3
2.4
62.9
2.4
64.5
2.3
65.7
2.3
65.9
2.2
0.6
-0.8
0.4
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
1496.6
15739.5
1553.2
15602.4
1391.8
223.9
6.7
2.1
15.5
1691.3
16003.0
1515.5
240.8
6.8
2.3
17.2
1964.2
17952.1
1759.7
266.5
6.9
2.5
18.8
2225.2
20217.4
1991.4
285.1
7.1
2.6
21.8
2546.7
23899.1
2275.3
305.8
7.2
2.6
25.0
0.4
-0.1
0.9
0.3
0.9
0.7
0.1
1.0
1.1
1.5
1.2
1.5
1.0
0.2
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.2
0.5
1.5
1.4
1.7
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.0
1.4
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
11.2
10.3
25.2
12.7
11.2
27.8
15.3
13.0
32.8
16.3
14.2
38.1
17.2
14.7
43.6
1.3
0.9
1.0
1.9
1.5
1.7
0.6
0.9
1.5
0.5
0.3
1.4
engineering
91.7
101.1
115.4
122.3
129.9
1.0
1.3
0.6
0.6
24.4
36.9
84.5
0.0
21.3
40.3
89.3
0.0
18.4
43.3
103.9
0.0
16.5
46.2
114.1
0.0
15.3
50.2
124.0
0.0
-1.3
0.9
0.5
-1.4
0.7
1.5
-1.1
0.6
0.9
-0.7
0.8
0.8
1055.5
636.6
241.8
1155.5
707.7
245.9
1355.9
840.9
280.5
1556.3
983.3
305.9
1805.1
1167.1
336.9
0.9
1.1
0.2
1.6
1.7
1.3
1.4
1.6
0.9
1.5
1.7
1.0
150.7
175.0
206.3
238.3
271.2
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.3
26.4
0.0
26.9
0.0
28.2
0.0
28.9
0.0
29.9
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.3
27.9
30.0
33.4
35.9
40.5
0.7
1.1
0.7
1.2
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
Latvia: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2.4
2.6
2.2
2.4
2.1
2.4
2.0
2.3
1.9
2.3
1.8
2.2
-0.6
-0.6
-0.5
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
-0.6
-0.2
-0.6
-0.1
12.5
3085.1
18.0
5035.8
23.6
7297.9
29.7
9905.9
34.4
12119.0
36.7
13649.5
3.7
5.0
2.8
3.8
2.3
3.1
1.5
2.0
0.7
1.2
16.1
2.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
21.2
2.9
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
26.6
3.2
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
30.8
3.5
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
32.8
3.5
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
2.8
2.6
6.1
8.8
3.1
1.8
2.3
1.3
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.5
0.7
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
0.2
0.2
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.0
2.7
4.5
0.2
1.4
1.1
2.3
-1.2
0.9
0.7
1.2
-1.2
0.5
0.0
0.8
-1.5
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
0.7
1.0
12.3
6.5
2.4
2.7
0.8
1.2
16.4
9.2
2.8
3.8
0.9
1.4
21.3
12.2
3.2
5.1
1.0
1.5
25.0
14.3
3.5
6.4
1.0
1.6
27.0
14.9
3.5
7.8
1.8
2.3
2.9
3.4
1.5
3.4
1.2
1.5
2.6
2.9
1.5
3.0
0.8
1.1
1.6
1.6
0.9
2.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
0.4
-0.1
2.0
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.8
0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.6
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3
78
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 1
REFERENCE 2013
Lithuania: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
3.5
2.8
3.3
2.6
3.2
2.5
3.0
2.4
2.9
2.3
2.8
2.3
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
18.0
3300.3
27.5
5325.1
24.7
4.1
0.0
0.0
0.5
35.1
7357.5
31.5
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
41.8
9364.3
37.5
5.6
0.0
0.0
0.7
49.3
11685.8
44.2
6.6
0.0
0.0
0.7
55.6
13811.0
49.7
7.4
0.0
0.0
0.7
4.4
4.9
2.4
3.3
2.4
1.9
3.8
1.0
1.2
1.8
2.4
1.8
1.3
1.2
0.0
0.7
1.7
2.2
1.7
1.5
1.2
0.3
0.7
1.2
1.7
1.2
1.2
0.4
0.5
0.5
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
0.2
0.2
1.1
0.3
0.2
1.4
0.3
0.3
1.6
0.4
0.4
1.9
0.5
0.4
2.2
6.0
1.2
1.9
2.4
2.9
1.5
1.9
2.3
1.8
1.1
1.5
1.5
engineering
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.3
2.3
1.6
2.0
1.5
0.4
1.1
1.5
0.0
0.4
1.3
1.8
0.0
0.3
1.4
1.9
0.0
0.3
1.7
2.1
0.0
0.3
1.9
2.1
0.0
0.3
1.8
1.8
-1.0
1.1
0.9
-0.3
1.5
0.6
-0.3
1.2
0.4
17.6
8.7
3.9
23.1
11.7
4.7
28.1
14.2
5.4
33.5
16.9
6.3
38.1
19.1
7.0
2.7
3.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.3
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.2
trade
4.2
5.8
7.6
9.5
11.1
3.3
2.8
2.2
1.6
agriculture
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
0.4
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Luxembourg: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0.4
2.6
0.5
2.5
0.6
2.5
0.6
2.4
0.7
2.3
0.7
2.2
1.5
-0.4
1.3
-0.1
0.9
-0.3
0.7
-0.4
0.5
-0.4
30.8
25151.4
40.3
26876.5
48.6
27830.0
58.3
30596.6
69.3
34728.6
82.1
40742.2
2.7
0.7
1.9
0.3
1.8
1.0
1.8
1.3
1.7
1.6
36.6
2.2
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.2
44.1
2.4
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
52.9
2.7
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
62.8
2.8
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
74.3
3.0
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
1.9
0.8
-0.1
2.7
1.9
0.1
1.8
0.9
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
1.7
0.5
-0.6
-0.4
0.1
0.2
1.7
0.7
-0.5
-0.3
0.7
0.4
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.8
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.9
0.1
0.3
1.0
2.0
-1.8
0.6
1.5
1.6
-1.5
0.5
1.6
0.6
-1.0
0.6
1.2
0.8
-0.8
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
0.5
2.0
31.9
22.0
6.2
3.6
0.5
2.1
39.1
27.3
7.0
4.6
0.5
2.2
47.6
33.5
8.2
5.8
0.6
2.3
57.4
40.8
9.5
7.0
0.7
2.5
68.3
48.8
11.2
8.3
0.1
0.5
2.1
2.2
1.3
2.6
1.1
0.3
2.0
2.1
1.5
2.3
0.9
0.3
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.8
1.4
0.9
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.7
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.8
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
agriculture
Energy sector and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Source: GEM-E3
EU Reference scenario 2013
79
APPENDIX 1
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
REFERENCE 2013
Malta: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0.4
2.9
0.4
2.6
0.4
2.5
0.4
2.5
0.4
2.5
0.4
2.4
0.9
-1.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
5.3
8524.9
6.1
9099.6
5.3
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
7.1
10886.3
6.2
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
8.6
13449.1
7.5
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.1
10.2
16431.3
8.8
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
11.3
18794.7
9.8
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.5
0.7
1.5
1.8
1.5
1.2
-0.5
-0.5
2.3
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.4
1.0
1.0
0.7
1.7
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.7
1.1
1.4
1.0
0.5
-0.4
-0.4
0.0
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
1.6
0.8
1.6
1.2
1.7
1.8
0.7
1.4
1.3
0.2
1.0
0.6
engineering
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
1.2
1.9
1.7
0.7
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.6
1.1
-0.5
1.0
1.2
-0.6
0.9
1.1
-0.9
0.1
0.3
Tertiary
market services
non market services
4.3
2.7
1.1
5.1
3.3
1.1
6.2
4.1
1.3
7.4
5.0
1.4
8.3
5.8
1.4
1.6
2.0
0.6
2.0
2.3
1.4
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.2
1.5
0.1
trade
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.2
agriculture
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.5
1.0
0.5
-0.4
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
Netherlands: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
15.9
2.4
16.6
2.4
17.2
2.3
17.6
2.2
17.6
2.2
17.4
2.1
0.4
0.2
0.4
-0.5
0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.4
-0.1
-0.5
513.6
16012.0
588.4
16109.0
688.1
17740.8
767.2
19449.2
866.0
22469.1
994.4
27595.1
1.4
0.1
1.6
1.0
1.1
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.4
2.1
525.9
64.9
1.3
0.5
12.8
2.1
615.0
73.8
1.3
0.7
15.1
2.5
685.6
81.9
1.2
0.7
16.1
2.6
773.1
91.8
1.2
0.7
17.4
2.8
886.1
102.4
1.2
0.8
18.5
3.1
1.6
1.3
0.0
3.7
1.7
1.7
1.1
1.1
-0.5
0.4
0.6
0.2
1.2
1.1
-0.3
0.2
0.8
0.8
1.4
1.1
0.0
0.3
0.6
1.2
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
3.7
14.3
17.2
1.2
3.8
16.2
20.3
1.0
4.1
17.5
24.2
0.8
4.5
19.4
28.1
0.6
5.0
22.0
30.8
0.5
0.4
1.3
1.7
-1.6
0.7
0.8
1.7
-2.7
1.1
1.0
1.5
-2.1
1.0
1.3
0.9
-1.1
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
11.8
28.7
405.8
211.3
117.2
68.0
12.8
32.2
481.1
252.3
132.3
86.6
14.7
34.9
539.4
284.0
146.3
98.9
17.0
38.2
611.6
323.6
164.0
113.5
20.4
41.2
708.6
379.5
185.5
132.9
0.8
1.2
1.7
1.8
1.2
2.4
1.4
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.3
1.4
0.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.9
0.8
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.6
9.4
26.6
9.9
28.0
10.3
29.4
10.4
31.6
10.7
33.9
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.2
0.7
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3
80
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 1
REFERENCE 2013
Poland: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
38.7
3.2
38.2
2.9
38.4
2.7
37.6
2.6
36.1
2.5
34.5
2.4
-0.1
-1.0
0.1
-0.8
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
241.9
3978.1
354.6
5697.3
312.3
52.2
1.1
0.3
3.5
474.3
7798.8
417.6
76.0
1.4
0.3
5.1
564.2
9626.4
496.8
92.3
1.5
0.4
5.9
646.1
11582.8
568.3
107.7
1.6
0.4
6.6
697.2
13125.5
612.2
115.2
1.7
0.5
6.7
3.9
3.7
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.8
2.6
1.5
3.7
1.7
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.2
2.3
1.5
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.6
0.7
1.6
1.2
0.8
1.3
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.7
0.2
3.6
2.6
9.8
4.7
3.5
12.9
5.6
4.4
15.2
6.5
5.2
17.3
7.0
5.7
18.6
2.7
3.2
2.7
1.8
2.2
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.3
0.7
0.9
0.7
15.8
27.4
34.8
43.1
47.5
5.6
2.4
2.1
1.0
2.1
13.5
25.7
0.0
2.2
18.6
34.0
0.0
2.2
22.4
38.5
0.0
2.0
25.0
42.3
0.0
1.9
25.7
45.5
0.0
0.6
3.3
2.8
-0.1
1.9
1.2
-0.7
1.1
1.0
-0.8
0.3
0.7
216.4
100.0
43.9
285.9
135.6
55.2
341.4
163.8
66.0
391.8
187.9
76.7
423.8
204.8
81.2
2.8
3.1
2.3
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.5
0.8
0.9
0.6
trade
60.7
81.6
97.6
112.8
123.3
3.0
1.8
1.5
0.9
agriculture
11.7
0.0
13.5
0.0
14.1
0.0
14.4
0.0
14.5
0.0
1.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
17.9
21.8
24.6
26.5
27.7
2.0
1.2
0.7
0.4
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
Portugal: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
10.2
2.8
10.6
2.6
10.7
2.5
10.8
2.4
10.8
2.3
10.6
2.3
0.4
-0.6
0.1
-0.3
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
162.1
9914.1
172.7
10708.5
182.0
11223.0
219.4
13558.0
255.6
15866.7
287.9
18178.8
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.5
1.9
1.9
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.4
151.1
19.6
0.2
0.1
1.3
1.7
159.3
20.5
0.2
0.1
1.4
1.8
192.0
22.3
0.2
0.2
1.5
2.0
223.4
24.5
0.3
0.2
1.6
2.1
251.2
26.5
0.3
0.2
1.9
2.1
0.5
0.5
3.4
3.4
1.1
0.7
1.9
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.9
0.5
1.2
0.8
0.5
0.2
1.7
0.0
1.3
3.0
5.3
3.2
1.4
3.0
5.7
2.6
1.6
3.4
6.8
2.3
1.8
3.9
7.8
2.3
1.8
4.3
8.9
2.2
0.9
0.1
0.8
-1.9
1.5
1.0
1.7
-1.1
0.8
1.4
1.4
-0.4
0.1
1.0
1.3
-0.5
3.6
10.1
117.5
59.8
32.8
21.4
4.1
10.0
124.3
63.8
31.7
25.2
4.3
11.4
152.8
80.8
37.3
31.3
4.6
12.1
180.8
97.2
43.1
37.0
4.9
12.3
205.9
113.2
47.3
41.8
1.3
-0.1
0.6
0.7
-0.3
1.6
0.5
1.3
2.1
2.4
1.6
2.2
0.6
0.6
1.7
1.9
1.5
1.7
0.8
0.2
1.3
1.5
0.9
1.2
3.4
4.0
3.5
4.5
3.5
5.5
3.5
6.0
3.5
6.5
0.3
1.3
0.0
1.8
0.0
1.0
0.1
0.7
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3
EU Reference scenario 2013
81
APPENDIX 1
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
REFERENCE 2013
Romania: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
22.5
3.2
21.5
2.9
21.0
2.7
20.3
2.6
19.4
2.5
18.5
2.4
-0.5
-1.0
-0.2
-0.8
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
83.1
1790.5
124.1
3698.9
112.0
25.0
0.5
0.1
1.0
157.3
4990.1
142.0
33.9
0.7
0.2
1.3
178.7
5973.3
161.3
38.8
0.7
0.2
1.4
201.4
7070.8
181.6
43.0
0.7
0.2
1.5
216.0
7983.4
194.4
44.0
0.7
0.2
1.5
4.1
7.5
2.4
3.0
2.4
3.1
3.4
2.5
2.4
1.3
1.8
1.3
1.4
0.8
0.0
0.9
1.2
1.7
1.2
1.0
0.3
-0.2
0.5
0.7
1.2
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
1.0
0.9
6.2
1.2
1.1
7.4
1.4
1.4
8.1
1.5
1.5
9.0
1.4
1.5
9.3
1.5
2.2
1.8
1.4
2.1
0.8
0.4
0.8
1.0
-0.1
0.3
0.4
engineering
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
9.9
16.0
19.5
22.4
22.9
4.9
2.0
1.4
0.3
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
1.9
3.4
12.4
0.0
1.9
4.1
13.0
0.0
1.6
4.5
14.9
0.0
1.5
4.9
15.9
0.0
1.3
5.1
17.3
0.0
0.1
1.9
0.5
-1.5
0.8
1.3
-1.0
1.0
0.7
-1.2
0.3
0.8
Tertiary
market services
non market services
68.4
36.4
12.5
87.7
49.7
14.7
100.0
57.4
15.6
114.8
66.7
16.7
125.2
73.0
16.6
2.5
3.2
1.7
1.3
1.4
0.6
1.4
1.5
0.7
0.9
0.9
-0.1
12.1
15.4
18.8
22.8
26.9
2.5
2.1
1.9
1.6
7.5
0.0
7.8
0.0
8.1
0.0
8.5
0.0
8.8
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.3
6.3
7.4
7.7
7.9
7.9
1.7
0.3
0.3
0.0
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
Slovakia: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
5.4
3.2
5.4
3.1
5.6
2.9
5.6
2.8
5.5
2.7
5.3
2.7
0.0
-0.3
0.3
-0.5
0.0
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
41.3
4726.2
65.7
7086.1
83.9
8922.4
105.8
11409.6
119.0
13223.3
127.4
14617.1
4.8
4.1
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.5
1.2
1.5
0.7
1.0
59.8
13.8
0.8
0.3
0.7
0.7
76.3
17.4
1.0
0.3
0.8
0.8
96.1
22.3
1.1
0.3
0.9
1.0
108.1
25.1
1.1
0.3
1.0
1.0
115.5
25.6
1.1
0.3
0.9
1.1
2.5
2.3
1.9
1.6
1.1
1.8
2.3
2.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.8
1.2
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
0.6
1.2
6.4
0.5
0.6
1.4
8.8
0.5
0.8
1.8
12.2
0.5
0.8
1.9
14.5
0.4
0.9
2.0
14.9
0.4
1.1
1.6
3.2
0.2
1.9
2.3
3.3
-0.3
0.7
0.9
1.7
-1.3
0.5
0.3
0.3
-1.4
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
2.6
5.7
36.3
18.7
8.4
7.4
3.0
6.9
47.7
25.3
10.1
10.3
3.7
8.6
60.0
31.9
12.4
13.5
4.0
9.4
68.1
36.5
13.2
16.2
4.0
9.6
75.0
40.9
13.1
18.9
1.6
1.9
2.8
3.1
1.8
3.4
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.7
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.4
0.6
1.8
0.0
0.3
1.0
1.1
-0.1
1.6
1.9
3.8
2.0
4.2
2.1
5.3
2.2
5.5
2.2
5.2
0.8
1.0
0.5
2.2
0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.5
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
agriculture
Energy sector and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Source: GEM-E3
82
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 1
REFERENCE 2013
Slovenia: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2.0
2.9
2.0
2.6
2.1
2.5
2.2
2.4
2.1
2.4
2.1
2.3
0.3
-1.0
0.5
-0.5
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
27.1
7784.1
35.4
9692.5
30.8
6.0
0.2
0.1
0.9
41.8
11079.2
36.4
7.3
0.2
0.1
1.2
48.8
13177.2
42.5
8.4
0.2
0.2
1.3
55.2
15408.6
47.9
9.4
0.3
0.2
1.4
60.7
17624.2
52.6
10.4
0.2
0.2
1.5
2.7
2.2
1.7
1.3
1.7
2.0
2.5
8.5
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.9
1.4
0.9
0.9
-0.1
0.1
0.6
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.7
1.0
-0.3
1.1
1.3
0.7
1.6
0.5
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.7
0.8
engineering
2.5
3.3
4.1
4.9
5.6
2.9
2.0
1.8
1.4
0.2
1.1
2.0
0.0
0.2
1.2
2.2
0.0
0.2
1.3
2.4
0.0
0.2
1.3
2.5
0.0
0.2
1.4
2.6
0.0
-1.1
0.8
1.1
-1.2
0.7
1.0
-1.3
0.6
0.5
-1.0
0.4
0.2
21.9
11.8
5.5
25.9
14.4
5.7
30.6
17.3
6.3
34.8
20.0
6.7
38.4
22.4
7.0
1.7
2.0
0.3
1.7
1.8
1.1
1.3
1.5
0.7
1.0
1.2
0.4
trade
3.9
5.0
6.2
7.3
8.2
2.6
2.2
1.6
1.2
agriculture
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.5
0.5
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
40.0
2.9
46.0
2.7
48.0
2.7
50.0
2.6
51.7
2.5
52.7
2.5
1.4
-0.5
0.4
-0.2
0.4
-0.4
0.3
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
856.8
12378.6
1051.3
13196.9
1227.4
14773.3
1583.3
18367.0
1835.6
20668.2
2045.3
22726.0
2.1
0.6
1.6
1.1
2.6
2.2
1.5
1.2
1.1
1.0
961.6
124.5
4.9
2.4
13.5
7.8
1122.5
148.5
5.3
2.5
16.6
9.7
1447.8
183.2
6.8
2.8
19.1
11.9
1676.7
204.8
7.2
2.9
21.3
12.3
1865.1
225.8
7.0
2.9
23.5
12.2
1.6
1.8
0.8
0.5
2.1
2.1
2.6
2.1
2.4
1.1
1.4
2.0
1.5
1.1
0.6
0.5
1.1
0.4
1.1
1.0
-0.2
0.0
1.0
-0.1
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
7.0
23.8
38.9
5.3
7.4
27.9
48.7
4.8
8.6
34.1
66.7
4.4
9.5
37.6
79.3
3.7
9.6
41.1
92.5
3.4
0.4
1.6
2.3
-0.9
1.6
2.0
3.2
-0.9
1.0
1.0
1.7
-1.5
0.1
0.9
1.5
-1.1
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
20.8
114.8
700.3
380.4
177.4
117.0
25.6
125.8
824.7
461.2
189.4
147.5
28.9
157.0
1078.6
619.9
242.6
188.6
31.0
169.7
1271.2
754.6
263.0
226.5
33.5
176.4
1431.9
874.1
269.9
260.8
2.1
0.9
1.6
1.9
0.7
2.3
1.2
2.2
2.7
3.0
2.5
2.5
0.7
0.8
1.7
2.0
0.8
1.8
0.8
0.4
1.2
1.5
0.3
1.4
25.5
22.1
26.6
23.5
27.4
29.1
27.1
31.0
27.1
31.0
0.5
0.7
0.3
2.1
-0.1
0.6
0.0
0.0
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
Spain: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3
EU Reference scenario 2013
83
APPENDIX 1
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
REFERENCE 2013
Sweden: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
8.9
2.1
9.3
2.1
10.1
2.1
10.6
2.1
10.9
2.1
11.2
2.1
0.5
-0.2
0.8
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
283.3
15496.3
349.2
18081.4
304.8
50.8
1.8
0.6
7.7
423.6
20797.2
369.8
60.4
2.4
0.9
8.5
505.2
24127.3
440.9
68.6
2.7
0.9
9.8
603.1
28609.9
525.8
78.0
2.7
0.9
11.3
717.0
33791.3
624.0
90.8
2.8
0.8
12.1
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.4
1.9
1.7
2.9
4.6
1.0
1.8
1.5
1.8
1.3
0.9
0.2
1.4
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.3
0.2
-0.5
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.5
0.3
-0.3
0.7
1.0
4.1
4.1
1.4
4.3
4.7
1.4
4.8
5.5
1.5
5.2
6.3
1.6
5.7
7.0
2.6
0.4
1.3
0.6
1.2
1.7
0.6
0.9
1.3
0.7
0.8
1.1
22.1
26.7
30.9
35.8
43.8
1.9
1.5
1.5
2.0
0.5
9.0
16.7
0.0
0.4
11.2
19.5
0.0
0.4
12.2
22.1
0.0
0.3
13.9
24.8
0.0
0.3
16.7
27.3
0.0
-0.8
2.3
1.5
-1.1
0.9
1.3
-1.1
1.3
1.1
-0.8
1.8
1.0
226.0
113.8
71.4
277.3
139.7
86.0
336.9
170.7
100.1
409.0
211.0
116.0
490.9
260.5
134.0
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.5
2.0
2.1
1.5
1.8
2.1
1.5
35.8
46.3
60.6
76.5
90.8
2.6
2.7
2.4
1.7
5.0
0.0
5.3
0.0
5.4
0.0
5.6
0.0
5.6
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.1
11.3
12.6
13.2
14.0
15.1
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.8
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others
United Kingdom: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy sector and others
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50
58.8
2.4
62.0
2.4
66.3
2.3
70.2
2.2
73.4
2.1
76.4
2.1
0.5
-0.1
0.7
-0.3
0.6
-0.4
0.5
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
1444.8
15784.6
1706.3
17704.5
2023.8
19238.0
2445.4
21741.9
2965.4
25333.1
3581.8
29977.1
1.7
1.2
1.7
0.8
1.9
1.2
1.9
1.5
1.9
1.7
1522.5
156.3
3.0
1.5
22.2
5.0
1805.7
176.7
3.0
1.3
29.2
5.7
2181.4
198.6
2.8
1.3
33.2
6.0
2642.6
222.2
2.7
1.2
36.2
6.2
3186.4
246.3
2.7
1.1
37.4
6.4
1.7
1.2
0.0
-1.3
2.7
1.2
1.9
1.2
-0.6
-0.3
1.3
0.6
1.9
1.1
-0.2
-0.8
0.9
0.3
1.9
1.0
-0.2
-0.9
0.3
0.3
21.2
24.7
53.6
4.7
21.4
25.7
64.6
3.9
21.2
27.5
79.2
3.1
20.0
29.0
98.8
2.5
18.4
29.5
121.8
2.1
0.1
0.4
1.9
-1.8
-0.1
0.7
2.1
-2.3
-0.6
0.5
2.2
-2.0
-0.8
0.2
2.1
-1.9
20.3
106.0
1199.8
739.6
308.8
142.7
22.0
126.2
1439.2
927.8
321.9
180.4
24.3
148.0
1768.9
1172.9
361.4
225.3
25.7
168.5
2181.6
1481.5
410.6
280.1
27.0
187.3
2677.8
1864.6
464.1
339.4
0.8
1.8
1.8
2.3
0.4
2.4
1.0
1.6
2.1
2.4
1.2
2.2
0.6
1.3
2.1
2.4
1.3
2.2
0.5
1.1
2.1
2.3
1.2
1.9
8.8
60.4
9.1
63.5
9.3
66.0
9.5
70.2
9.6
75.0
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.6
0.1
0.7
Source: GEM-E3
84
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2: SUMMARY ENERGY
BALANCES AND INDICATORS
EU Reference scenario 2013
85
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
EU28: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
947932
214627
176084
209437
243841
103944
30818
66071
1913
430
4712
904640
196059
136469
190678
257516
123918
26817
84883
6058
806
5354
841485
163855
103565
158525
236563
178977
32208
124361
12829
3691
5888
831739
149960
90871
149395
229122
212391
31687
136029
22662
14040
7974
808126
139654
77509
140735
193490
256738
32181
150677
41928
22705
9248
775146
127408
65363
124505
180877
276993
32953
151650
54362
28575
9453
750168
88528
55596
109610
201194
295241
34088
152957
66069
32035
10092
755836
79202
43537
101917
214924
316256
35117
155036
73559
37343
15202
757922
74288
34213
95373
217916
336132
35702
161613
78008
41520
19288
755763
72768
23257
82682
220665
356390
36021
164815
85278
44813
25464
737913
69144
16347
69668
215930
366824
36568
164084
92481
45911
27779
-1.2
-2.7
-5.2
-2.7
-0.3
5.6
0.4
6.5
21.0
24.0
2.3
-0.4
-1.6
-2.9
-1.2
-2.0
3.7
0.0
1.9
12.6
19.9
4.6
-0.7
-4.5
-3.3
-2.5
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.2
4.7
3.5
0.9
-0.1
-1.2
-5.9
-2.2
0.4
1.1
0.4
0.4
1.7
1.8
5.2
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
829314
98273
535238
518046
17192
193432
2029
988719
125211
604030
585121
18909
257849
1412
956735
110927
563977
541240
22737
276001
707
968177
116302
551969
527936
24033
286044
-128
912060
96769
528622
507046
21577
266444
-1601
915743
88251
521323
498075
23248
284343
-1508
921181
85336
521986
494522
27464
290114
-1489
911821
62203
525813
494867
30946
299138
-1740
917955
54550
528660
493650
35010
307780
-1818
940644
54960
538605
497877
40728
319195
-1880
963104
54873
544042
497143
46899
335472
-2095
1.4
1.2
0.5
0.4
2.8
3.6
-10.0
-0.5
-1.4
-0.6
-0.7
-0.5
-0.4
0.0
0.1
-1.2
-0.1
-0.2
2.4
0.9
0.0
0.2
-2.2
0.2
0.0
2.7
0.7
0.0
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1732712
321277
665142
396145
243841
2029
104278
1833269
317986
683909
448380
257516
1412
124065
1767474
280653
620735
444428
236563
707
184389
1746442
266262
589584
435221
229122
-128
226382
1664663
236423
551528
406259
193490
-1601
278563
1633220
215659
530942
406923
180877
-1508
300327
1611470
173864
520209
397218
201194
-1489
320475
1605249
141405
510991
397005
214924
-1740
342663
1611435
128839
503915
397669
217916
-1818
364915
1628802
127728
501344
394790
220665
-1880
386154
1630018
124018
497898
396632
215930
-2095
397635
0.2
-1.3
-0.7
1.2
-0.3
-10.0
5.9
-0.6
-1.7
-1.2
-0.9
-2.0
0.0
4.2
-0.3
-3.0
-0.6
-0.2
0.4
0.0
1.4
0.1
-1.7
-0.2
0.0
0.4
0.0
1.1
18.5
38.4
22.9
14.1
6.0
17.3
37.3
24.5
14.0
6.8
15.9
35.1
25.1
13.4
10.4
15.2
33.8
24.9
13.1
13.0
14.2
33.1
24.4
11.6
16.7
13.2
32.5
24.9
11.1
18.4
10.8
32.3
24.6
12.5
19.9
8.8
31.8
24.7
13.4
21.3
8.0
31.3
24.7
13.5
22.6
7.8
30.8
24.2
13.5
23.7
7.6
30.5
24.3
13.2
24.4
3006692
396970
3286660
407042
3327452
377767
3416910
369108
3428487
354745
3530642
360436
3664473
367526
3806113
384851
3991697
414250
4202590
447802
4338637
473642
1.0
-0.5
0.3
-0.6
0.7
0.4
0.8
1.3
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
384957
223038
40042
102844
14918
4114
0
426995
228941
33244
133713
26452
4645
0
417273
197605
20532
149190
45117
4828
0
383090
186948
10850
131949
47367
5976
0
352461
160009
5924
124810
54922
6796
0
338048
143969
5272
126275
55679
6853
0
299413
105545
4564
124806
57154
7345
0
282783
77176
4034
127067
62251
12254
0
288580
68351
4151
129771
70151
16157
0
299341
70308
4144
128423
74298
22167
0
299175
68306
4107
125172
77085
24506
0
0.8
-1.2
-6.5
3.8
11.7
1.6
0.0
-1.7
-2.1
-11.7
-1.8
2.0
3.5
0.0
-1.6
-4.1
-2.6
0.0
0.4
0.8
0.0
0.0
-2.2
-0.5
0.0
1.5
6.2
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
1076346
740500
705
18667
316475
1110121
763156
3101
19517
324348
1001515
670015
13296
20813
297391
971670
646957
18237
22512
283964
910149
615082
26224
20814
248029
873505
594427
26522
19831
232725
879495
582078
27227
19702
250488
877552
571408
27464
18586
260094
866854
561252
27421
17323
260858
862355
555092
28231
17656
261377
851255
547329
29476
18478
255973
-0.7
-1.0
34.1
1.1
-0.6
-1.0
-0.9
7.0
0.0
-1.8
-0.3
-0.5
0.4
-0.5
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
0.1
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Energy Branch Consumption
86990
91952
88327
82471
77246
73943
71067
69188
68575
68919
69052
0.2
-1.3
-0.8
-0.1
117117
120718
114884
119316
122296
121539
121547
121156
119757
119350
119927
-0.2
0.6
-0.1
-0.1
1127687
1190674
1157570
1171067
1137297
1130470
1125536
1125533
1132629
1144095
1150707
0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
332412
217920
114492
286291
166083
342901
330448
216886
113563
311793
179768
368665
290978
187894
103085
311545
187856
367191
304838
197139
107699
312012
181948
372270
306198
197546
108652
299377
172717
359006
305662
195178
110484
300041
171685
353083
306929
194763
112166
297328
167352
353927
304625
192159
112465
298793
168292
353824
304043
189881
114162
301234
169602
357751
306949
190112
116837
303983
172439
360723
308922
188534
120388
303395
172664
365726
-1.3
-1.5
-1.0
0.8
1.2
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
61779
485890
266925
217599
46015
49480
0
54424
502788
285438
239418
52355
56250
0
49673
457366
269920
245271
53515
81825
0
48390
440945
271579
254567
55369
100150
67
46140
408539
251719
255699
56068
118868
264
43134
393484
249695
264355
56188
123187
427
41358
384945
241968
275584
55942
125118
620
39901
378414
238545
285884
56410
125536
843
37926
374817
235764
298901
57261
126758
1202
36212
373351
234302
313732
58018
126907
1571
34487
371479
238409
322774
58348
123322
1887
-2.2
-0.6
0.1
1.2
1.5
5.2
0.0
-0.7
-1.1
-0.7
0.4
0.5
3.8
0.0
-1.1
-0.6
-0.4
0.8
0.0
0.5
8.9
-0.9
-0.2
-0.1
0.8
0.2
-0.1
5.7
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
88147
104692
149354
194777
244433
264581
282698
300378
316888
331107
342063
5.4
5.0
1.5
1.0
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
5215.6
4846.8
2180.0
2666.7
3779.7
1341.6
159.8
520.3
457.9
249.2
1050.9
236.1
830.9
4626.1
2091.0
2535.1
3593.1
1201.1
150.0
539.6
430.7
220.7
1051.0
257.0
775.9
4296.7
1913.4
2383.3
3265.4
1045.2
139.7
508.6
392.6
195.5
983.7
273.7
757.5
4142.4
1831.8
2310.6
3117.7
970.8
131.2
492.9
380.3
181.5
961.2
277.8
746.9
3843.9
1606.1
2237.8
2876.1
790.0
125.1
484.3
360.3
159.6
956.7
239.5
728.2
3600.6
1400.4
2200.2
2649.1
619.1
117.0
458.1
350.9
151.8
952.2
226.8
724.7
3446.7
1271.0
2175.7
2509.9
520.0
111.3
433.4
340.0
145.1
960.2
211.5
725.2
3272.6
1106.6
2166.0
2430.4
461.0
107.0
425.5
332.9
140.5
963.4
110.4
731.8
3188.2
1023.7
2164.5
2363.9
401.9
103.9
425.2
323.8
137.6
971.5
86.3
738.0
-0.7
3985.8
1404.5
170.1
693.6
461.0
255.7
1001.0
262.3
967.4
5321.9
2513.8
2808.1
4138.3
1483.1
174.2
640.7
491.2
266.4
1082.7
280.3
903.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.1
-1.5
-2.5
-1.3
-0.2
-1.5
-2.4
-0.7
1.5
-0.9
-1.1
-1.7
-0.6
-1.3
-2.8
-1.1
-0.5
-0.9
-2.0
-0.3
-1.3
-0.4
-0.9
-2.2
-0.2
-1.0
-3.3
-0.9
-0.6
-0.5
-0.7
0.1
-5.0
0.1
91.8
93.6
85.3
81.4
75.6
72.9
67.6
63.3
60.6
57.6
56.1
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-2.8
-0.1
-0.3
0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Source: PRIMES
86
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
EU28: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
485.587
10725.4
161.6
2.30
46.7
493.791
11777.0
155.7
2.26
52.5
503.626
12301.4
143.7
2.14
52.7
510.817
13210.2
132.2
2.06
53.8
516.986
14246.4
116.8
1.96
53.0
521.721
15448.3
105.7
1.91
54.2
524.921
16667.7
96.7
1.78
55.1
527.075
17866.6
89.8
1.65
54.7
528.203
19150.8
84.1
1.56
54.8
528.090
20517.0
79.4
1.49
55.4
526.472
21944.1
74.3
1.45
56.6
0.4
1.4
-1.2
-0.7
0.3
1.5
-2.0
-0.9
0.2
1.6
-1.9
-0.9
0.0
1.4
-1.3
-1.0
1092.1
10.2
1338.5
11.4
1569.4
12.8
1892.2
14.3
2112.4
14.8
2233.1
14.5
2338.3
14.0
2410.8
13.5
2504.6
13.1
2608.5
12.7
2699.6
12.3
3.7
3.0
1.0
0.7
105.6
0.0
40.0
47.1
104.3
0.0
39.2
47.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
37.8
48.4
97.0
94.2
90.1
35.9
46.8
91.2
84.2
78.9
32.1
44.2
85.4
77.9
71.9
29.0
41.9
81.1
71.5
64.6
26.9
40.0
76.9
66.9
60.2
25.6
38.8
73.2
62.6
56.2
24.9
37.7
70.8
58.5
53.0
24.4
37.0
68.3
54.1
49.3
24.1
36.5
-0.5
0.0
-0.6
0.3
-0.9
-1.7
-2.3
-1.6
-0.9
-1.2
-1.6
-2.0
-1.8
-1.0
-0.9
-1.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.5
0.39
2.14
2.09
1.61
1.54
2.92
0.37
2.08
1.94
1.58
1.48
2.94
0.33
1.97
1.79
1.47
1.33
2.86
0.29
1.91
1.77
1.38
1.21
2.82
0.25
1.83
1.66
1.31
1.13
2.74
0.23
1.78
1.61
1.27
1.06
2.72
0.18
1.74
1.58
1.21
0.95
2.70
0.14
1.70
1.50
1.17
0.90
2.69
0.11
1.66
1.43
1.13
0.86
2.68
0.09
1.63
1.39
1.10
0.81
2.67
0.08
1.61
1.38
1.07
0.80
2.66
-1.6
-0.8
-1.5
-0.9
-1.5
-0.2
-2.8
-0.7
-0.7
-1.1
-1.6
-0.4
-3.3
-0.5
-0.5
-0.8
-1.7
-0.1
-4.0
-0.4
-0.7
-0.6
-0.9
-0.1
7.5
0.6
8.4
1.2
12.4
4.7
16.1
6.5
20.9
10.3
22.7
11.2
24.4
12.0
25.9
12.5
27.1
12.7
28.0
13.3
28.7
13.9
3007267
945027
933660
181203
514392
46848
358408
22253
118
5358
0
650058
136924
114281
101207
12893
180
0
398853
92439
0
186470
129190
67499
15128
0
567
3287285
997733
974939
141358
699743
83787
311883
70453
1459
5930
0
711660
134494
147780
105529
40510
1740
0
429386
98998
0
180630
169054
59434
19615
0
652
3328110
916685
830048
86851
795653
145901
374576
149202
22363
6831
0
838114
131323
226757
112159
84512
29846
240
480034
101203
0
175756
224922
54039
24590
0
726
3416910
887261
804369
45900
753663
188902
368453
263506
96144
8712
0
930128
123150
318900
118306
123698
76309
586
488079
103103
0
163211
253142
42299
28633
0
794
3428487
749295
706358
26245
708895
221059
374203
487529
142787
12116
0
1017923
111162
437092
120602
204726
110110
1655
469669
113668
904
141800
258836
33495
34635
0
903
3530642
705996
637739
24658
723849
231132
383179
632113
177015
14959
0
1067357
96912
517020
122416
258081
133723
2800
453425
114259
904
121501
266000
27775
37238
0
910
3664473
799389
475702
20658
738362
243292
396372
768244
206378
16077
0
1138323
107006
582765
124904
305395
149432
3033
448552
115758
1610
103961
280581
23784
39250
0
975
3806113
868122
343302
20977
764991
271722
408332
855332
251189
22146
0
1201184
115171
639395
128871
335743
171589
3193
446618
120668
7630
90682
291299
20062
42948
0
1627
3991697
896436
313974
21545
791462
314588
415145
907067
304009
27472
0
1274366
118838
693700
130562
355654
203942
3542
461828
127236
18271
88121
295982
21343
54237
0
2145
4202590
922451
349630
22478
798815
328910
418844
991599
328694
41168
0
1328626
122076
741307
132244
385234
217561
6268
465243
135974
34464
86837
297331
20242
57890
0
2943
4338637
923898
362710
22176
793169
343434
425214
1075357
347363
45316
0
1382012
121993
785504
134453
413394
230791
6865
474514
138054
38410
81632
301988
22106
65535
0
3253
1.0
-0.3
-1.2
-7.1
4.5
12.0
0.4
21.0
68.9
2.5
0.0
2.6
-0.4
7.1
1.0
20.7
66.7
0.0
1.9
0.9
0.0
-0.6
5.7
-2.2
5.0
0.0
2.5
0.3
-2.0
-1.6
-11.3
-1.1
4.2
0.0
12.6
20.4
5.9
0.0
2.0
-1.7
6.8
0.7
9.3
13.9
21.3
-0.2
1.2
0.0
-2.1
1.4
-4.7
3.5
0.0
2.2
0.7
0.6
-3.9
-2.4
0.4
1.0
0.6
4.7
3.8
2.9
0.0
1.1
-0.4
2.9
0.4
4.1
3.1
6.2
-0.5
0.2
5.9
-3.1
0.8
-3.4
1.3
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
-1.3
0.4
0.4
1.7
0.4
1.7
2.6
5.3
0.0
1.0
0.7
1.5
0.4
1.5
2.2
4.2
0.3
0.9
17.2
-1.2
0.4
-0.4
2.6
0.0
6.2
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
50.0
50.0
43.1
40.0
36.8
36.3
35.4
34.9
34.4
34.7
34.3
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
37.5
11.5
0.0
45.8
31.4
14.4
38.4
11.8
0.0
44.8
30.4
14.4
38.4
12.6
0.0
48.5
27.5
21.0
40.4
14.3
0.0
53.1
26.0
27.1
40.8
15.8
0.2
58.0
21.9
36.1
41.4
16.4
0.2
60.7
20.0
40.7
42.7
16.1
0.5
66.3
21.8
44.5
43.1
16.4
1.7
70.3
22.8
47.5
43.5
16.7
3.4
71.8
22.5
49.3
43.8
16.7
5.0
72.1
21.9
50.2
44.6
16.2
6.9
72.8
21.3
51.6
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
5894.2
519.6
4425.4
447.8
459.7
41.7
6251.6
527.2
4694.5
459.7
530.7
39.5
6466.4
512.8
4893.4
496.4
525.6
38.1
6755.8
531.5
5052.9
536.7
595.2
39.5
7045.6
551.0
5195.6
581.1
677.0
40.9
7491.4
575.5
5455.5
643.0
774.7
42.7
7962.2
602.4
5713.7
714.0
887.5
44.7
8288.2
623.2
5884.8
763.3
970.7
46.2
8629.0
644.5
6057.0
816.2
1063.8
47.7
8885.6
659.3
6182.6
852.9
1141.8
48.9
9148.2
674.6
6309.0
890.2
1224.2
50.2
0.9
-0.1
1.0
1.0
1.4
-0.9
0.9
0.7
0.6
1.6
2.6
0.7
1.2
0.9
1.0
2.1
2.7
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
1.1
1.6
0.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
2227.6
1522.0
405.5
300.1
2545.3
1803.3
416.0
325.9
2493.4
1764.4
392.5
336.6
2714.3
1923.1
435.5
355.7
2938.5
2076.4
485.8
376.2
3174.5
2232.6
540.5
401.4
3430.2
2399.4
602.3
428.5
3568.7
2495.2
632.2
441.2
3713.1
2594.8
663.9
454.4
3809.7
2661.2
684.3
464.2
3907.6
2729.6
704.0
474.0
1.1
1.5
-0.3
1.2
1.7
1.6
2.2
1.1
1.6
1.5
2.2
1.3
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
340814
7580
178015
95660
8093
45492
5973
366066
7663
181818
111643
7855
50512
6575
364944
7522
182270
112043
7399
49820
5892
369793
7717
176038
117949
7948
54002
6140
356476
7802
157091
120195
8539
56470
6379
350461
7852
145721
122455
9162
58568
6702
351233
7928
141680
126128
9805
58655
7037
351069
8009
140423
127299
9925
58250
7164
354945
8135
140890
128780
9976
59878
7287
357888
8186
141428
129671
9821
61433
7349
362851
8270
142783
131469
9625
63310
7394
0.7
-0.1
0.2
1.6
-0.9
0.9
-0.1
-0.2
0.4
-1.5
0.7
1.4
1.3
0.8
-0.1
0.2
-1.0
0.5
1.4
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.2
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
87
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
EU27: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
944342
214627
174729
208082
243841
103064
30312
65696
1913
430
4712
900832
196059
135432
188813
257516
123012
26273
84522
6057
806
5354
837269
163855
102804
156311
236563
177738
31492
123862
12817
3686
5881
828717
149960
90236
148399
229122
211000
31099
135363
22594
13983
7961
805878
139654
76958
140735
193490
255042
31582
149828
41816
22583
9233
772881
127408
64882
124505
180877
275209
32336
150803
54240
28390
9441
747783
88528
55168
109610
201194
293284
33413
152022
65944
31822
10083
753374
79202
43158
101917
214924
314173
34427
154005
73433
37117
15192
755340
74288
33881
95373
217916
333881
34978
160523
77838
41265
19277
753106
72768
22973
82682
220665
354017
35279
163680
85089
44517
25452
735318
69144
16113
69668
215930
364463
35816
162971
92284
45624
27767
-1.2
-2.7
-5.2
-2.8
-0.3
5.6
0.4
6.5
20.9
24.0
2.2
-0.4
-1.6
-2.9
-1.0
-2.0
3.7
0.0
1.9
12.6
19.9
4.6
-0.7
-4.5
-3.3
-2.5
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.1
4.7
3.5
0.9
-0.1
-1.2
-6.0
-2.2
0.4
1.1
0.3
0.3
1.7
1.8
5.2
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
825138
97795
532790
514059
18730
192527
1685
983457
124587
600393
580747
19646
257287
972
952254
110227
560977
537578
23399
275525
297
962484
115797
549056
524410
24645
284075
-548
905697
96286
525822
503630
22192
263726
-2087
909485
87928
518548
494705
23843
281544
-1986
914961
85074
519130
491120
28010
287422
-2021
905605
61859
522940
491490
31450
296573
-2313
911730
54208
525756
490288
35468
305137
-2304
934342
54715
535671
494530
41141
316319
-2265
956654
54644
541074
493810
47264
332519
-2534
1.4
1.2
0.5
0.4
2.3
3.6
-15.9
-0.5
-1.3
-0.6
-0.7
-0.5
-0.4
0.0
0.1
-1.2
-0.1
-0.3
2.4
0.9
0.0
0.2
-2.2
0.2
0.0
2.7
0.7
0.0
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1724865
320845
661160
393935
243841
1685
103398
1824307
317303
679353
446003
257516
972
123159
1758899
279970
617021
441796
236563
297
183251
1737735
265757
586043
432258
229122
-548
225103
1656059
235940
548184
403541
193490
-2087
276991
1624704
215336
527692
404124
180877
-1986
298660
1602873
173602
516932
394526
201194
-2021
318640
1596577
141061
507745
394440
214924
-2313
340720
1602634
128496
500686
395026
217916
-2304
362814
1619850
127483
498134
391914
220665
-2265
383919
1620981
123788
494703
393679
215930
-2534
395414
0.2
-1.4
-0.7
1.2
-0.3
-15.9
5.9
-0.6
-1.7
-1.2
-0.9
-2.0
0.0
4.2
-0.3
-3.0
-0.6
-0.2
0.4
0.0
1.4
0.1
-1.7
-0.2
0.0
0.4
0.0
1.1
18.6
38.3
22.8
14.1
6.0
17.4
37.2
24.4
14.1
6.8
15.9
35.1
25.1
13.4
10.4
15.3
33.7
24.9
13.2
13.0
14.2
33.1
24.4
11.7
16.7
13.3
32.5
24.9
11.1
18.4
10.8
32.3
24.6
12.6
19.9
8.8
31.8
24.7
13.5
21.3
8.0
31.2
24.6
13.6
22.6
7.9
30.8
24.2
13.6
23.7
7.6
30.5
24.3
13.3
24.4
2996104
394494
3274309
404404
3313455
375229
3402657
366716
3413997
352276
3516471
357998
3649690
364937
3790687
382104
3974224
411365
4182474
444776
4318132
470483
1.0
-0.5
0.3
-0.6
0.7
0.4
0.8
1.3
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
383708
222681
39647
102348
14918
4114
0
425514
228404
32795
133223
26447
4645
0
416002
197074
20411
148579
45111
4828
0
381831
186584
10813
131136
47322
5976
0
351334
159666
5892
124086
54894
6796
0
337023
143772
5241
125571
55586
6853
0
298398
105411
4532
124119
56992
7345
0
281799
76961
4005
126513
62066
12254
0
287496
68138
4102
129143
69955
16157
0
298037
70192
4089
127555
74033
22167
0
297858
68205
4051
124256
76839
24506
0
0.8
-1.2
-6.4
3.8
11.7
1.6
0.0
-1.7
-2.1
-11.7
-1.8
2.0
3.5
0.0
-1.6
-4.1
-2.6
0.0
0.4
0.8
0.0
0.0
-2.2
-0.6
0.0
1.5
6.2
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
1070906
735155
705
18583
316463
1104746
757897
3101
19414
324334
997096
665701
13293
20716
297386
967473
642900
18195
22414
283964
905985
611217
26044
20696
248029
869474
590680
26354
19715
232725
875489
578358
27061
19583
250487
873609
567760
27299
18457
260093
862979
557664
27263
17196
260857
858566
551566
28082
17543
261375
847511
543864
29324
18353
255971
-0.7
-1.0
34.1
1.1
-0.6
-1.0
-0.9
7.0
0.0
-1.8
-0.3
-0.6
0.4
-0.6
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
0.1
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Energy Branch Consumption
86159
91120
87583
81858
76734
73445
70575
68704
68096
68447
68588
0.2
-1.3
-0.8
-0.1
116435
120003
114288
118704
121702
120941
120958
120573
119179
118779
119364
-0.2
0.6
-0.1
-0.1
1122342
1184339
1151237
1164352
1130486
1123692
1118669
1118521
1125525
1136865
1143392
0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
331020
217073
113947
284627
165325
341371
328869
215974
112895
309867
178847
366756
289602
187141
102460
309652
186849
365133
303343
196349
106994
310012
180916
370082
304636
196731
107905
297387
171626
356837
304062
194351
109710
298054
170601
350975
305330
193921
111409
295351
166207
351781
302974
191287
111687
296789
167105
351653
302354
188976
113378
299231
168378
355562
305188
189124
116063
301964
171175
358538
307133
187519
119613
301377
171368
363514
-1.3
-1.5
-1.1
0.8
1.2
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
61705
483224
265916
216590
45802
49105
0
54278
499695
284196
238178
52098
55894
0
49523
454477
268632
243907
53270
81428
0
48249
438055
270154
253155
55094
99580
67
46002
405818
250372
254202
55787
118042
264
43008
390845
248241
262890
55900
122382
426
41230
382280
240576
274025
55655
124282
619
39771
375771
237136
284243
56123
124635
841
37795
372181
234343
297183
56980
125842
1200
36083
370727
232867
311900
57734
125986
1569
34358
368863
236942
320867
58063
122416
1884
-2.2
-0.6
0.1
1.2
1.5
5.2
0.0
-0.7
-1.1
-0.7
0.4
0.5
3.8
0.0
-1.1
-0.6
-0.4
0.8
0.0
0.5
8.9
-0.9
-0.2
-0.1
0.8
0.2
-0.1
5.7
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
87331
103846
148412
193514
242889
262990
280995
298554
314930
329030
340005
5.4
5.0
1.5
1.0
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
5189.9
4818.9
2169.3
2649.6
3761.2
1337.3
158.0
517.5
455.7
247.8
1044.8
233.6
824.2
4599.3
2080.8
2518.5
3575.1
1197.4
148.5
536.6
428.7
219.3
1044.6
254.3
769.8
4271.7
1904.2
2367.5
3248.6
1041.8
138.4
505.7
390.7
194.2
977.8
270.9
752.3
4118.1
1823.2
2294.9
3101.7
968.0
129.9
489.9
378.2
180.2
955.4
274.9
741.5
3820.4
1598.2
2222.2
2860.4
787.5
123.9
481.5
358.2
158.4
950.9
237.1
722.8
3577.4
1392.4
2185.0
2633.5
616.6
115.9
455.3
348.8
150.6
946.3
224.5
719.5
3423.4
1262.8
2160.5
2494.1
517.3
110.1
430.6
338.0
143.9
954.2
209.2
720.0
3250.9
1099.9
2150.9
2414.4
458.2
105.9
422.7
330.9
139.3
957.5
109.9
726.5
3166.5
1017.0
2149.5
2347.9
399.0
102.8
422.3
321.8
136.4
965.5
85.9
732.7
-0.7
3968.9
1400.3
168.1
690.7
459.1
254.2
996.5
259.7
961.3
5291.8
2501.2
2790.5
4118.1
1478.0
172.2
637.1
488.8
265.0
1077.0
277.2
896.4
-1.2
-1.3
-1.1
-1.5
-2.5
-1.3
-0.2
-1.5
-2.4
-0.7
1.5
-0.9
-1.1
-1.7
-0.6
-1.3
-2.8
-1.1
-0.5
-0.9
-2.0
-0.3
-1.3
-0.4
-0.9
-2.2
-0.2
-1.0
-3.3
-0.9
-0.7
-0.5
-0.7
0.1
-5.0
0.1
91.8
93.6
85.3
81.4
75.6
72.9
67.6
63.3
60.6
57.5
56.0
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-2.8
-0.1
-0.3
0.5
-1.1
-1.5
Source: PRIMES
88
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
EU27: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
481.081
10670.6
161.6
2.30
46.7
489.325
11722.3
155.6
2.26
52.5
499.201
12256.0
143.5
2.14
52.7
506.264
13159.1
132.1
2.06
53.7
512.354
14189.9
116.7
1.96
52.9
517.061
15386.1
105.6
1.91
54.1
520.263
16600.1
96.6
1.78
55.0
522.430
17793.2
89.7
1.65
54.6
523.573
19073.1
84.0
1.56
54.7
523.481
20435.2
79.3
1.49
55.4
521.899
21858.7
74.2
1.45
56.5
0.4
1.4
-1.2
-0.7
0.3
1.5
-2.0
-0.9
0.2
1.6
-1.9
-0.9
0.0
1.4
-1.3
-1.0
1087.9
10.2
1332.4
11.4
1560.5
12.7
1880.9
14.3
2099.8
14.8
2219.4
14.4
2323.6
14.0
2395.3
13.5
2488.5
13.0
2591.6
12.7
2682.3
12.3
3.7
3.0
1.0
0.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
40.0
47.1
93.2
98.7
97.4
39.2
47.6
83.7
94.7
94.8
37.8
48.3
81.1
89.2
85.3
35.9
46.8
76.3
79.7
74.7
32.1
44.2
71.4
73.8
68.1
29.0
41.9
67.9
67.7
61.1
26.9
40.0
64.3
63.3
57.0
25.6
38.8
61.2
59.3
53.2
24.9
37.7
59.2
55.4
50.2
24.4
37.0
57.0
51.2
46.6
24.1
36.4
-1.8
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
0.3
-0.9
-1.7
-2.3
-1.6
-0.9
-1.2
-1.6
-2.0
-1.8
-1.0
-0.9
-1.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.5
0.39
2.14
2.09
1.61
1.54
2.92
0.37
2.08
1.94
1.58
1.48
2.94
0.33
1.97
1.79
1.47
1.33
2.86
0.29
1.91
1.77
1.38
1.21
2.82
0.25
1.83
1.66
1.31
1.13
2.74
0.23
1.78
1.61
1.27
1.06
2.72
0.18
1.74
1.58
1.21
0.95
2.70
0.14
1.70
1.50
1.18
0.90
2.69
0.11
1.66
1.42
1.13
0.85
2.68
0.09
1.63
1.39
1.10
0.81
2.67
0.08
1.61
1.38
1.07
0.80
2.66
-1.6
-0.8
-1.5
-0.9
-1.5
-0.2
-2.8
-0.7
-0.7
-1.1
-1.6
-0.4
-3.3
-0.5
-0.5
-0.8
-1.7
-0.1
-4.0
-0.4
-0.7
-0.6
-0.9
-0.1
7.5
0.6
8.4
1.3
12.4
4.7
16.1
6.5
20.9
10.3
22.7
11.2
24.4
12.0
25.9
12.5
27.1
12.7
28.0
13.3
28.7
13.9
2996677
945027
932109
179609
512821
46848
352534
22253
118
5358
0
646747
136924
112494
99421
12893
180
0
397328
91881
0
186157
128409
67112
15084
0
567
3274931
997733
972611
139503
697929
83773
305550
70443
1459
5930
0
708073
134494
145938
103693
40504
1740
0
427641
98483
0
180309
168068
59040
19571
0
652
3314111
916685
827663
86291
793100
145868
366247
149063
22363
6831
0
834264
131323
224768
110259
84423
29845
240
478173
100717
0
175431
223825
53643
24548
0
726
3402657
887261
803081
45708
748722
188714
361611
262722
96127
8712
0
925354
123150
316443
116259
123304
76293
586
485761
102587
0
162895
251589
41899
28584
0
794
3413997
749295
705123
26060
704250
220932
367238
486230
142752
12116
0
1012725
111162
434378
118555
204086
110082
1655
467185
113107
904
141596
256995
33104
34587
0
903
3516471
705996
637045
24477
719829
230724
376000
630696
176745
14959
0
1061915
96912
514107
120380
257384
133542
2800
450896
113752
904
121297
264095
27415
37179
0
910
3649690
799389
475234
20476
734499
242597
388519
766793
206106
16077
0
1132393
107006
579666
122700
304682
149251
3033
445720
115255
1610
103771
278350
23424
39200
0
975
3790687
868122
342551
20793
761045
270927
400310
853875
250918
22146
0
1194810
115171
636263
126636
335027
171407
3193
443377
120028
7630
90492
288333
20018
42907
0
1627
3974224
896436
313245
21249
786904
313747
406715
905093
303363
27472
0
1267489
118838
690015
128250
354707
203516
3542
458636
126663
18271
87932
293082
21281
54197
0
2145
4182474
922451
349227
22141
792473
327621
410219
989403
327771
41168
0
1321250
122076
737329
129913
384193
216954
6268
461845
134995
34464
86647
294453
20185
57616
0
2943
4318132
923898
362360
21840
786463
342281
416470
1073065
346440
45316
0
1374366
121993
781473
132107
412315
230185
6865
470900
136995
38410
81529
298817
22040
65261
0
3253
1.0
-0.3
-1.2
-7.1
4.5
12.0
0.4
20.9
68.9
2.5
0.0
2.6
-0.4
7.2
1.0
20.7
66.7
0.0
1.9
0.9
0.0
-0.6
5.7
-2.2
5.0
0.0
2.5
0.3
-2.0
-1.6
-11.3
-1.2
4.2
0.0
12.6
20.4
5.9
0.0
2.0
-1.7
6.8
0.7
9.2
13.9
21.3
-0.2
1.2
0.0
-2.1
1.4
-4.7
3.5
0.0
2.2
0.7
0.6
-3.9
-2.4
0.4
0.9
0.6
4.7
3.7
2.9
0.0
1.1
-0.4
2.9
0.3
4.1
3.1
6.2
-0.5
0.2
5.9
-3.1
0.8
-3.4
1.3
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
-1.3
0.3
0.3
1.7
0.3
1.7
2.6
5.3
0.0
1.0
0.7
1.5
0.4
1.5
2.2
4.2
0.3
0.9
17.2
-1.2
0.4
-0.3
2.6
0.0
6.2
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
50.0
50.1
43.2
40.0
36.9
36.3
35.5
34.9
34.5
34.7
34.4
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
37.6
11.4
0.0
45.8
31.5
14.3
38.4
11.7
0.0
44.7
30.5
14.3
38.4
12.6
0.0
48.5
27.7
20.8
40.4
14.3
0.0
53.1
26.1
27.0
40.7
15.8
0.2
58.0
21.9
36.0
41.3
16.4
0.2
60.7
20.1
40.6
42.7
16.1
0.5
66.3
21.9
44.4
43.0
16.4
1.7
70.3
22.9
47.4
43.5
16.6
3.4
71.8
22.6
49.2
43.8
16.7
5.0
72.2
22.1
50.1
44.5
16.1
6.9
72.9
21.4
51.5
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
5866.2
516.2
4405.3
446.1
456.9
41.7
6218.8
523.8
4670.3
457.9
527.3
39.5
6431.5
509.5
4867.4
494.1
522.5
38.1
6717.6
527.8
5024.8
534.2
591.3
39.4
7003.9
547.0
5165.3
578.4
672.3
40.9
7446.6
571.3
5423.4
640.1
769.1
42.7
7913.9
597.9
5679.6
710.9
880.8
44.7
8237.5
618.6
5849.7
760.2
962.9
46.1
8576.0
639.7
6020.9
813.0
1054.7
47.6
8830.8
654.5
6146.3
849.6
1131.4
48.9
9091.6
669.7
6272.6
886.8
1212.4
50.1
0.9
-0.1
1.0
1.0
1.4
-0.9
0.9
0.7
0.6
1.6
2.6
0.7
1.2
0.9
1.0
2.1
2.7
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
1.1
1.6
0.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
2222.9
1519.1
403.7
300.1
2533.0
1794.0
413.2
325.8
2481.9
1755.6
389.9
336.4
2701.7
1913.5
432.7
355.6
2924.8
2065.9
482.8
376.1
3159.5
2221.1
537.2
401.2
3413.8
2386.7
598.7
428.3
3551.4
2481.9
628.5
441.0
3694.9
2580.7
660.0
454.2
3790.9
2646.5
680.4
463.9
3888.2
2714.4
700.1
473.8
1.1
1.5
-0.3
1.2
1.7
1.6
2.2
1.1
1.6
1.5
2.2
1.3
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
339288
7526
176833
95514
8052
45418
5945
364165
7609
180606
111182
7809
50416
6542
362888
7468
181000
111506
7349
49712
5854
367610
7660
174730
117343
7904
53873
6099
354311
7742
155832
119585
8495
56322
6335
348358
7791
144537
121853
9119
58404
6655
349092
7867
140525
125482
9760
58472
6986
348902
7949
139292
126617
9880
58054
7111
352761
8074
139768
128090
9931
59665
7232
355707
8125
140323
128985
9778
61202
7293
360644
8210
141691
130764
9583
63059
7337
0.7
-0.1
0.2
1.6
-0.9
0.9
-0.2
-0.2
0.4
-1.5
0.7
1.5
1.3
0.8
-0.1
0.2
-1.0
0.5
1.4
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.2
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
89
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Austria: Reference scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
9799
293
1114
1533
0
6859
3597
3169
6
63
25
9992
0
1007
1404
0
7580
3154
4189
114
93
30
11837
0
1107
1486
0
9244
3302
5559
177
171
35
12068
0
965
1414
0
9689
3552
5506
288
324
20
11850
0
694
969
0
10186
3705
5471
617
367
26
11667
0
302
918
0
10447
3789
5344
870
420
25
11793
0
251
738
0
10804
3910
5193
1149
518
34
11421
0
167
575
0
10679
3968
4911
1149
627
25
11173
0
11
307
0
10856
4006
4880
1298
643
29
11178
0
0
14
0
11163
4026
5024
1319
771
23
11248
0
0
0
0
11248
4100
5018
1328
774
28
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
19132
3019
11012
7962
3050
5253
-118
24570
3969
13257
8170
5088
7153
229
21400
2981
11638
7061
4577
6114
200
23534
3701
12035
7284
4750
7075
13
22337
3048
11951
7396
4555
6332
104
21799
2533
11411
7207
4205
6647
84
20997
2292
11112
7058
4054
6261
86
20785
1929
10953
7006
3947
6568
91
21071
1581
11007
7095
3912
7099
98
21271
1522
11005
7099
3906
7275
74
21537
1440
10969
7076
3893
7578
58
1.1
-0.1
0.6
-1.2
4.1
1.5
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.4
-6.3
-0.6
-2.8
-0.7
-0.5
-1.2
-0.1
-1.9
0.1
-2.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
1.0
-1.9
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
29179
3597
12356
6519
0
-118
6825
34398
3999
14480
8159
0
229
7531
34618
3397
13091
8214
0
200
9715
35602
3701
12999
8489
0
13
10399
34187
3048
12646
7301
0
104
11089
33466
2533
11714
7565
0
84
11571
32790
2292
11363
6999
0
86
12052
32207
1929
11120
7142
0
91
11924
32244
1581
11017
7405
0
98
12143
32449
1522
11005
7289
0
74
12559
32785
1440
10969
7578
0
58
12740
1.7
-0.6
0.6
2.3
0.0
0.0
3.6
-0.1
-1.1
-0.3
-1.2
0.0
-6.3
1.3
-0.4
-2.8
-1.1
-0.4
0.0
-1.9
0.8
0.0
-2.3
-0.2
0.4
0.0
-1.9
0.3
12.3
42.3
22.3
0.0
23.4
11.6
42.1
23.7
0.0
21.9
9.8
37.8
23.7
0.0
28.1
10.4
36.5
23.8
0.0
29.2
8.9
37.0
21.4
0.0
32.4
7.6
35.0
22.6
0.0
34.6
7.0
34.7
21.3
0.0
36.8
6.0
34.5
22.2
0.0
37.0
4.9
34.2
23.0
0.0
37.7
4.7
33.9
22.5
0.0
38.7
4.4
33.5
23.1
0.0
38.9
59863
5961
64054
7321
67925
7594
71196
8147
70632
7748
73628
7977
76369
8255
78451
8460
81667
8851
84906
9239
88377
9615
1.3
2.5
0.4
0.2
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.8
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
3877
1216
278
1961
421
0
0
5425
1512
262
2836
814
2
0
5647
1019
177
2871
1580
1
0
6005
1142
92
3125
1639
7
0
4739
346
311
2448
1627
7
0
4509
94
71
2703
1634
7
0
4104
82
59
2333
1623
7
0
4037
164
58
2426
1381
8
0
4128
0
68
2492
1560
8
0
4380
0
72
2515
1785
8
0
4544
0
82
2565
1890
8
0
3.8
-1.8
-4.4
3.9
14.1
0.0
0.0
-1.7
-10.2
5.8
-1.6
0.3
19.1
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
11542
9060
16
557
1910
12016
9349
45
613
2009
11623
8155
472
931
2065
11822
8251
556
862
2153
11567
8103
586
757
2122
10799
7534
587
760
1918
10256
7336
595
738
1587
9611
7205
607
656
1143
9386
7143
630
630
983
9315
7137
668
588
924
9284
7114
716
600
853
0.1
-1.0
40.5
5.3
0.8
0.0
-0.1
2.2
-2.1
0.3
-1.2
-1.0
0.2
-0.3
-2.9
-0.5
-0.2
0.9
-1.0
-3.1
Energy Branch Consumption
1348
1615
1763
1832
1705
1570
1465
1342
1278
1253
1261
2.7
-0.3
-1.5
-0.7
Non-Energy Uses
1718
1716
1865
1968
2148
2098
2047
2022
2028
2061
2156
0.8
1.4
-0.5
0.3
23670
28141
27933
28470
27749
27316
26969
26727
26810
26968
27221
1.7
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
7236
5276
1960
6322
3066
7046
8762
6088
2674
6817
3445
9118
8843
6004
2839
6896
3396
8797
9147
6192
2955
6911
3142
9270
9056
6132
2925
6509
2959
9223
8833
5929
2904
6534
3100
8849
8780
5882
2898
6442
3043
8704
8622
5718
2904
6371
3059
8675
8585
5612
2974
6338
3138
8748
8632
5543
3089
6332
3199
8806
8762
5507
3255
6299
3253
8907
2.0
1.3
3.8
0.9
1.0
2.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
-0.6
-1.4
0.5
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
-0.6
0.0
-0.3
0.6
-0.1
0.3
0.1
1367
9832
4464
4432
1020
2555
0
1416
12095
5125
5013
1353
3140
0
1133
10647
4989
5274
1744
4145
0
1256
10783
5022
5320
1792
4296
1
1385
10123
4634
5402
1725
4475
4
1246
9537
4605
5628
1698
4595
7
1281
9255
4300
5848
1701
4575
9
1169
9062
4125
6023
1706
4631
10
1087
9023
4229
6274
1699
4484
13
1049
8987
4075
6494
1742
4604
17
995
8954
4179
6742
1730
4599
21
-1.9
0.8
1.1
1.8
5.5
5.0
-100.0
2.0
-0.5
-0.7
0.2
-0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.8
-0.9
-0.7
0.8
-0.1
0.2
8.0
-1.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.7
0.1
0.0
4.3
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
6126
7090
8554
9041
9895
10233
10918
11061
11228
11607
11775
3.4
1.5
1.0
0.4
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
84.8
89.7
34.9
54.9
71.9
15.5
4.3
16.9
7.6
3.2
24.3
5.5
12.4
92.2
37.7
54.5
73.9
15.5
4.5
19.0
6.9
2.5
25.5
5.7
12.6
85.0
33.0
52.0
66.8
11.7
4.3
17.6
5.9
2.1
25.2
6.0
12.2
80.3
30.5
49.9
62.2
10.3
3.9
16.3
5.7
2.1
24.0
6.0
12.2
74.9
27.1
47.8
57.4
8.1
3.4
15.4
5.4
1.7
23.4
5.6
11.9
70.6
24.6
46.1
53.9
7.1
2.8
14.1
5.1
1.6
23.2
5.1
11.6
68.7
23.2
45.5
52.3
6.3
2.5
13.8
4.9
1.6
23.3
4.9
11.5
68.0
22.9
45.1
51.6
6.4
2.4
13.4
4.7
1.5
23.3
4.9
11.5
67.9
22.8
45.2
51.6
6.6
2.3
13.3
4.4
1.5
23.4
4.8
11.6
0.6
65.6
12.5
3.4
16.6
8.9
3.9
20.2
4.7
14.5
97.0
38.1
58.9
78.6
17.0
3.9
18.3
8.6
4.4
26.6
5.0
13.4
0.9
2.1
2.2
0.2
-1.5
-1.9
1.9
1.6
-1.5
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.7
-2.8
0.0
0.4
-2.6
-4.1
0.4
0.9
-0.2
0
-1.3
-1.9
-0.8
-1.5
-3.6
-2.4
-1.3
-0.9
-1.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.3
0
-0.5
-0.9
-0.3
-0.5
-1.1
-1.8
-0.7
-0.9
-0.7
0.0
-0.8
-0.1
0
107.20
122.70
113.50
116.70
107.50
101.60
94.80
89.40
86.90
86.00
86.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
1.9
0.0
-51.5 -100.0
-0.1
-4.6
-0.3
-4.2
0.0
0.0
3.0
1.0
-0.9
1.2
5.8
-0.2
40.9
13.3
10.6
7.9
3.4
-2.8
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-9.7 -100.0
-2.7 -100.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
6.4
0.7
3.5
2.0
2.7
-1.0
-1.4
0.5
-13.4 -100.0
-15.3
1.6
-0.5
0.5
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
90
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Austria: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
8.002
245.5
118.9
2.25
65.6
8.201
266.8
128.9
2.29
71.4
8.375
286.2
121.0
2.08
61.8
8.470
312.5
113.9
2.08
66.1
8.591
337.7
101.2
1.95
65.3
8.730
361.3
92.6
1.86
65.1
8.850
385.4
85.1
1.75
64.0
8.934
412.5
78.1
1.67
64.5
8.978
442.5
72.9
1.62
65.3
8.987
474.2
68.4
1.59
65.6
8.969
507.4
64.6
1.57
65.7
0.5
1.5
0.2
-0.8
0.3
1.7
-1.8
-0.6
0.3
1.3
-1.7
-1.1
0.1
1.4
-1.4
-0.5
22.2
9.0
29.6
11.1
35.0
12.2
41.3
13.2
47.2
14.0
49.4
13.7
51.7
13.4
53.3
12.9
55.6
12.6
57.7
12.2
59.6
11.7
4.7
3.0
0.9
0.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
44.5
46.9
111.3
99.6
102.7
47.6
68.2
108.2
95.4
92.4
47.7
67.6
101.0
87.8
78.2
44.9
65.8
91.8
76.5
68.1
38.3
62.6
84.3
71.6
66.3
33.6
59.1
80.0
65.9
60.5
31.5
55.0
76.2
60.5
56.2
30.7
51.9
73.2
55.6
53.3
30.2
49.6
70.6
51.2
50.2
29.8
48.1
68.3
47.0
47.4
29.4
47.0
0.8
-0.5
-0.8
0.7
3.7
-1.6
-2.2
-3.0
-2.2
-0.8
-1.4
-1.5
-1.2
-1.9
-1.3
-0.8
-1.7
-1.2
-0.3
-0.8
0.17
2.10
2.30
1.41
1.26
2.87
0.21
2.05
2.08
1.26
1.26
2.91
0.17
1.86
1.92
1.11
0.94
2.76
0.16
1.90
2.08
1.01
0.81
2.75
0.13
1.83
1.95
0.90
0.71
2.73
0.11
1.76
1.85
0.87
0.67
2.71
0.08
1.70
1.75
0.83
0.57
2.69
0.07
1.65
1.63
0.80
0.54
2.67
0.06
1.62
1.60
0.77
0.51
2.66
0.06
1.59
1.55
0.74
0.48
2.64
0.06
1.57
1.52
0.71
0.47
2.62
0.0
-1.2
-1.8
-2.4
-2.9
-0.4
-3.1
-0.2
0.2
-2.0
-2.7
-0.1
-4.1
-0.7
-1.0
-0.8
-2.1
-0.2
-1.7
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
-1.0
-0.1
25.1
3.0
24.4
3.0
29.6
5.4
30.7
8.0
34.5
10.7
36.1
11.9
39.0
13.2
39.8
14.0
40.2
14.9
41.3
15.8
41.4
16.5
59874
0
5727
1702
8864
1675
41836
67
3
0
0
15729
0
9585
9503
77
5
0
6144
2632
0
1713
3221
708
501
0
1
64066
0
7165
1641
14347
2882
36677
1331
21
2
0
16866
0
10399
9558
819
22
0
6467
3383
0
1589
3570
723
584
0
1
67937
0
4918
1275
16132
5052
38406
2064
89
1
0
19497
0
11867
10773
1014
80
0
7630
4597
0
1380
5048
439
761
0
1
71196
0
6392
390
12019
7277
41300
3346
459
11
0
20951
0
12950
11021
1529
400
0
8001
2709
0
1360
5232
413
995
0
1
70632
0
1821
416
10092
7138
43084
7171
899
11
0
23378
0
15106
11205
3114
787
0
8272
2953
0
1352
5390
411
1118
0
1
73628
0
467
383
10363
7183
44055
10114
1053
11
0
24148
0
16721
11340
4507
874
0
7426
3021
0
313
5786
207
1118
0
1
76369
0
408
329
7712
7122
45467
13359
1961
11
0
26360
0
19177
11661
6051
1466
0
7182
2804
0
305
5624
123
1130
0
1
78451
0
300
314
9359
6114
46136
13359
2858
12
0
27311
0
19861
11797
6051
2014
0
7450
3283
0
305
5929
132
1082
0
1
81667
0
0
392
9253
7268
46586
15088
3068
12
0
28379
0
20931
11925
6873
2133
0
7447
3283
0
68
6041
122
1216
0
1
84906
0
0
401
9696
8488
46810
15343
4156
12
0
28854
0
21939
11943
6994
3002
0
6914
3469
0
68
5459
117
1270
0
1
88377
0
0
473
11460
9193
47669
15443
4126
12
0
27824
0
22304
12275
7042
2987
0
5520
3685
0
68
3854
137
1459
0
1
1.3
0.0
-1.5
-2.8
6.2
11.7
-0.9
40.9
39.3
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.0
2.2
1.3
29.4
32.0
0.0
2.2
5.7
0.0
-2.1
4.6
-4.7
4.3
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
-9.5
-10.6
-4.6
3.5
1.2
13.3
26.1
25.0
0.0
1.8
0.0
2.4
0.4
11.9
25.7
0.0
0.8
-4.3
0.0
-0.2
0.7
-0.7
3.9
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
41.9
41.5
38.2
36.9
33.0
33.4
31.8
31.6
31.6
32.4
34.9
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
39.9
10.4
0.0
72.8
0.0
72.8
41.3
15.4
0.0
63.9
0.0
63.9
41.7
15.4
0.0
67.1
0.0
67.1
37.4
16.1
0.0
73.6
0.0
73.6
35.3
17.5
0.0
82.5
0.0
82.5
35.1
19.6
0.0
84.8
0.0
84.8
32.7
16.8
0.0
88.9
0.0
88.9
34.3
18.9
0.0
87.3
0.0
87.3
35.3
19.1
0.0
88.2
0.0
88.2
36.5
20.3
0.0
88.1
0.0
88.1
40.0
23.0
0.0
86.5
0.0
86.5
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
95.6
9.2
67.8
12.3
6.1
0.0
101.5
9.3
71.9
13.3
7.0
0.0
106.4
9.9
74.6
14.8
7.1
0.0
112.0
10.3
77.4
15.9
8.3
0.0
117.7
10.8
80.0
17.1
9.8
0.0
123.4
11.1
82.8
18.1
11.4
0.0
129.3
11.5
85.4
19.1
13.2
0.0
134.4
11.8
88.1
19.9
14.4
0.0
139.6
12.2
90.8
20.8
15.7
0.0
143.8
12.4
93.1
21.7
16.5
0.0
148.1
12.7
95.5
22.5
17.4
0.0
1.1
0.7
1.0
1.9
1.4
-1.2
1.0
0.9
0.7
1.5
3.3
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.7
1.1
3.0
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.8
1.4
0.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
54.2
35.1
16.6
2.4
58.4
37.0
19.0
2.4
50.9
28.7
19.8
2.4
59.9
36.4
21.0
2.5
70.4
45.4
22.3
2.7
74.3
47.7
23.8
2.8
78.4
50.0
25.4
3.0
81.3
51.5
26.8
3.1
84.5
53.0
28.3
3.2
86.9
54.1
29.5
3.3
89.4
55.1
30.8
3.4
-0.6
-2.0
1.8
-0.3
3.3
4.7
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.0
1.3
0.9
0.7
0.5
1.0
0.7
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
6795
123
3514
2326
235
590
60
8822
122
4011
3774
214
679
210
8518
132
4219
3240
210
706
110
8963
137
4084
3739
211
780
120
8917
141
3542
4205
219
797
130
8534
141
3146
4174
224
835
130
8385
141
2995
4092
228
916
140
8347
141
2996
4000
228
967
140
8411
143
3030
3974
228
1022
140
8465
143
3063
3970
224
1050
140
8559
143
3111
3991
221
1077
150
2.3
0.7
1.8
3.4
-1.2
1.8
6.2
0.0
0.5
0.7
-1.7
2.6
0.4
1.2
1.4
0.0
-0.6
0.0
-1.7
-0.3
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.2
0.8
0.3
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
0.8
0.7
0.0
0.0
-13.9 -100.0
-2.3
1.8
-2.7
2.0
0.0
1.3
0.5
0.2
6.4
0.7
8.1
3.8
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
2.4
0.8
0.4
0.3
6.9
0.8
6.4
3.6
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-1.3
-0.5
1.4
0.0
0.0
-13.8
-7.2
0.4
-1.9
-11.4
0.5
0.1
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
91
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Belgium: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
13606
206
0
2
12422
976
40
931
1
1
3
13717
57
6
0
12277
1377
25
1327
20
3
3
16357
0
1241
0
12367
2748
27
2545
111
60
4
14316
0
1241
0
9721
3353
45
2584
410
314
1
14330
0
1241
0
8538
4550
46
2953
1038
491
21
7650
0
1241
0
1249
5160
48
3017
1309
744
42
6637
0
1241
0
0
5395
46
3017
1512
774
47
6837
0
1241
0
0
5596
46
3042
1627
830
50
7062
0
1241
0
0
5820
46
3059
1752
912
51
7792
0
1241
0
0
6550
47
3250
2122
1081
51
8407
0
1241
0
0
7165
48
3293
2553
1219
51
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
50407
7159
29493
34069
-4576
13278
372
53362
5093
32628
32211
417
14817
542
53093
3131
32552
29849
2703
16791
47
52536
2082
31339
29153
2186
17873
474
50645
2001
30423
28335
2088
16857
283
52563
1916
29962
27919
2043
18358
1181
53027
1891
30255
27989
2265
17932
1807
54197
1433
30641
28127
2514
19131
1832
55481
1371
30639
28026
2613
20694
1654
55869
1312
31309
28344
2965
20487
1694
56520
1243
31744
28519
3224
20790
1799
0.5
-7.9
1.0
-1.3
0.0
2.4
-18.6
-0.5
-4.4
-0.7
-0.5
-2.5
0.0
19.6
0.5
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.8
0.6
20.4
0.3
-2.1
0.2
0.1
1.8
0.7
0.0
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
59212
7861
24107
13369
12422
372
1081
58981
5024
24752
14728
12277
542
1658
61503
3186
25630
16960
12367
47
3313
58457
2082
24229
17830
9721
474
4120
56163
2001
23034
16675
8538
283
5632
51053
1916
22424
17976
1249
1181
6306
50028
1891
22371
17422
0
1807
6537
50825
1433
22477
18327
0
1832
6756
52024
1371
22479
19577
0
1654
6942
52468
1312
22752
19093
0
1694
7617
53135
1243
22830
19154
0
1799
8110
0.4
-8.6
0.6
2.4
0.0
-18.6
11.9
-0.9
-1.2
-4.5
-0.6
-1.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.4
-3.6 -100.0
19.6
20.4
5.4
1.5
0.3
-2.1
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.0
1.1
13.3
40.7
22.6
21.0
1.8
8.5
42.0
25.0
20.8
2.8
5.2
41.7
27.6
20.1
5.4
3.6
41.4
30.5
16.6
7.0
3.6
41.0
29.7
15.2
10.0
3.8
43.9
35.2
2.4
12.4
3.8
44.7
34.8
0.0
13.1
2.8
44.2
36.1
0.0
13.3
2.6
43.2
37.6
0.0
13.3
2.5
43.4
36.4
0.0
14.5
2.3
43.0
36.0
0.0
15.3
82758
7932
85694
8243
93748
8395
89940
8157
90551
7706
78958
6709
75446
6675
78778
6918
87198
7425
93230
7930
95927
8086
1.3
0.6
-0.3
-0.9
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
7098
2629
187
3790
492
0
0
7677
1833
411
4612
821
0
0
8360
936
33
5669
1722
0
0
8016
414
96
5842
1664
0
0
7681
415
118
5330
1799
19
0
9110
415
241
6418
1998
38
0
8595
415
201
6001
1937
41
0
8434
0
169
6294
1926
45
0
8959
0
162
6953
1798
45
0
8947
0
176
6855
1871
45
0
8288
0
175
6353
1715
45
0
1.7
-9.8
-15.9
4.1
13.4
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-7.8
13.5
-0.6
0.4
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
54601
38493
0
44
16064
52924
37443
0
29
15452
50598
35526
362
6
14704
45690
33819
444
17
11409
43967
33068
739
78
10082
36076
32629
741
54
2652
34860
32711
785
28
1336
34926
32857
793
38
1238
34797
32771
824
67
1134
35111
33134
870
69
1038
35288
33357
920
72
939
-0.8
-0.8
0.0
-17.9
-0.9
-1.4
-0.7
7.4
29.0
-3.7
-2.3
-0.1
0.6
-9.7
-18.3
0.1
0.1
0.8
4.8
-1.7
Energy Branch Consumption
2313
2124
3279
3155
3055
2869
2867
2887
2907
2930
2936
3.6
-0.7
-0.6
0.1
Non-Energy Uses
6739
7516
7593
7520
7896
7879
7884
7965
8001
8074
8238
1.2
0.4
0.0
0.2
37358
36585
36427
36226
34867
34456
34667
35503
36310
37022
37775
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
0.4
14059
10570
3489
9474
4164
9661
11711
9049
2662
9920
5028
9927
11182
8227
2956
8970
5976
10299
11021
8014
3007
9019
5865
10321
10872
7908
2964
8572
5614
9809
10649
7724
2926
8560
5542
9704
10694
7696
2997
8307
5661
10006
10985
7814
3171
8396
5867
10256
11350
7921
3429
8406
5938
10616
11484
7899
3585
8516
6140
10883
11856
7997
3860
8518
6251
11150
-2.3
-2.5
-1.6
-0.5
3.7
0.6
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.2
1.3
0.1
0.5
0.5
3343
16312
10010
6667
492
533
0
1962
16523
10009
6896
428
767
0
1180
14935
11069
7163
668
1411
0
945
14469
11060
7284
636
1831
1
918
13108
10304
7188
914
2431
4
886
12764
10215
7176
945
2461
8
883
12773
10030
7495
957
2515
14
874
12930
10464
7772
857
2583
23
849
13040
10803
8257
687
2635
38
824
13190
10488
8752
987
2727
54
792
13258
10824
9058
990
2786
67
-9.9
-0.9
1.0
0.7
3.1
10.2
0.0
-2.5
-1.3
-0.7
0.0
3.2
5.6
0.0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
0.4
0.5
0.3
13.0
-0.5
0.2
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.5
8.2
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
1.9
-1.3
-7.4
-96.7 -100.0
0.0
254.2
0.0
0.0
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
-3.6 -100.0
10.9
5.2
1.7
-3.8
5.6
-0.1
10.6
1.5
0.2
55.1
25.0
3.8
50.3
23.3
4.7
3.1
17.3
8.2
-1.8
-1.4
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.3
0.4
2.7
2.3
0.4
1.2
1.0
1.1
-0.2
0.0 -100.0
5.5
-0.7
1.2
0.3
0.7
-0.6
8.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
500
858
1908
3011
4870
5396
5719
5858
5882
6673
7108
14.3
9.8
1.6
1.1
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
150.3
134.1
58.9
75.2
105.4
20.3
6.9
19.5
18.8
10.1
29.9
11.8
16.9
127.4
55.9
71.5
99.8
16.8
6.6
18.8
18.6
9.4
29.7
12.4
15.1
120.2
53.6
66.5
92.0
15.4
6.2
17.4
17.5
8.5
27.1
13.4
14.8
121.4
56.3
65.1
92.9
18.2
5.7
17.0
17.2
8.1
26.6
13.7
14.8
118.8
54.3
64.4
91.3
16.9
5.8
17.1
16.2
8.0
27.3
12.9
14.6
118.8
54.2
64.6
91.5
15.4
5.9
18.0
16.0
8.3
28.0
12.9
14.3
121.9
57.3
64.6
94.1
16.7
6.1
18.9
15.6
7.9
28.9
13.5
14.3
121.7
56.7
65.0
93.3
16.5
6.0
18.1
15.4
7.8
29.5
14.0
14.4
121.9
56.2
65.7
92.8
15.3
6.1
18.4
15.0
7.9
30.1
14.5
14.6
-1.1
121.3
25.1
4.9
34.0
20.2
8.2
28.9
7.8
21.2
146.6
70.5
76.1
113.3
24.0
4.0
24.5
20.5
10.6
29.8
14.7
18.6
-1.4
-2.1
3.4
-5.4
-0.7
2.1
0.3
4.2
-2.3
0
-1.1
-0.9
-1.2
-1.4
-2.8
-1.0
-1.1
-0.7
-1.7
-1.0
1.3
-1.3
0
-0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.9
-0.7
-0.2
-0.8
-0.6
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.5
0.3
0.4
-0.4
-0.1
0.5
0.6
0.0
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
102.70
100.20
91.60
87.00
82.10
82.90
81.10
81.20
83.30
83.10
83.30
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
92
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Belgium: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
10.239
308.9
191.7
2.05
78.1
10.446
334.4
176.4
1.92
80.1
10.840
354.7
173.4
1.71
76.8
11.239
382.1
153.0
1.71
78.6
11.593
409.2
137.2
1.64
77.9
11.911
439.2
116.2
1.82
87.3
12.204
474.6
105.4
1.82
88.9
12.473
516.3
98.4
1.80
88.8
12.718
563.4
92.3
1.81
88.7
12.936
614.4
85.4
1.78
87.8
13.126
668.8
79.4
1.75
87.1
0.6
1.4
-1.0
-1.8
0.7
1.4
-2.3
-0.5
0.5
1.5
-2.6
1.1
0.4
1.7
-1.4
-0.2
34.0
11.0
39.5
11.8
47.8
13.5
60.3
15.8
67.7
16.5
71.0
16.2
74.9
15.8
77.4
15.0
81.0
14.4
85.5
13.9
89.5
13.4
3.5
3.5
1.0
0.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
47.7
47.1
82.3
99.1
110.1
43.8
58.4
89.3
82.3
121.2
47.8
63.3
80.2
79.4
110.7
44.9
58.2
74.4
70.0
98.6
38.4
55.9
68.5
64.7
90.3
34.6
52.2
64.1
57.7
85.1
32.8
50.0
60.8
53.3
80.8
32.1
48.2
58.1
48.6
74.7
31.5
47.1
54.4
44.9
70.6
31.1
46.0
52.2
41.1
65.8
30.6
45.2
-1.1
-1.9
1.9
0.0
3.0
-1.8
-1.6
-2.0
-2.2
-1.2
-1.5
-1.9
-1.5
-1.6
-1.1
-1.0
-1.7
-1.3
-0.3
-0.5
0.28
2.44
2.42
2.13
1.98
2.99
0.26
2.33
2.09
2.06
2.11
3.00
0.20
2.15
1.74
2.09
1.69
2.90
0.17
2.11
1.71
2.07
1.59
2.87
0.15
2.02
1.60
2.04
1.51
2.76
0.20
2.00
1.60
2.00
1.47
2.74
0.19
1.98
1.60
1.95
1.42
2.73
0.17
1.98
1.64
1.90
1.41
2.73
0.17
1.96
1.67
1.85
1.33
2.72
0.15
1.91
1.57
1.81
1.27
2.71
0.14
1.89
1.55
1.76
1.27
2.70
-3.5
-1.3
-3.2
-0.2
-1.6
-0.3
-2.8
-0.6
-0.8
-0.2
-1.1
-0.5
2.4
-0.2
0.0
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
-1.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
1.3
0.0
2.3
0.0
5.1
4.2
8.2
5.5
13.7
10.1
15.4
10.9
16.2
11.3
16.2
11.2
15.9
11.4
17.7
11.9
18.5
12.4
82773
48157
12916
797
19091
1336
460
16
0
0
0
13891
5801
116
103
13
0
0
7975
1112
0
1785
4951
702
537
0
0
85709
47595
8199
1740
25143
2516
288
227
1
0
0
14651
5817
273
104
167
2
0
8561
1631
0
1667
5618
690
587
0
0
93764
47944
4190
406
33178
5882
312
1292
560
0
0
17015
5941
1933
117
912
904
0
9141
2309
0
1176
6451
426
1088
0
0
89940
37679
1883
488
35547
7129
519
4766
1930
0
0
20031
4596
3971
165
1966
1840
0
11464
2634
0
245
9326
572
1320
0
0
90551
33094
1883
611
31866
7807
539
12075
2654
22
0
23556
4037
7378
177
4772
2429
0
12141
3188
0
246
9397
617
1878
0
3
78958
4852
1883
1227
41545
8789
560
15220
4837
44
0
24844
590
10336
178
5864
4295
0
13918
3825
0
246
11453
439
1775
0
5
75446
0
1882
987
40229
8779
534
17582
5405
48
0
27061
0
12068
186
7068
4813
0
14993
4120
0
246
12896
365
1480
0
6
78778
0
0
819
44064
8769
533
18919
5620
53
0
28404
0
13025
187
7849
4989
0
15379
2888
0
0
13532
343
1498
0
6
87198
0
0
906
49330
9107
539
20369
6895
53
0
31069
0
14869
188
8581
6100
0
16200
2526
0
0
13619
360
2216
0
6
93230
0
0
988
48938
9548
548
24669
8466
72
0
34850
0
17863
190
10141
7522
10
16987
4486
0
0
14225
269
2487
0
6
95927
0
0
936
45429
8953
563
29690
10275
81
0
38790
0
21152
196
11728
9213
15
17638
4878
0
0
14879
205
2549
0
6
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
64.9
64.0
60.4
49.3
42.4
35.3
31.1
31.0
31.4
29.9
27.7
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
41.4
6.5
0.0
60.4
58.2
2.2
42.1
8.5
0.0
59.1
55.5
3.5
44.9
16.0
0.0
59.7
51.1
8.6
48.3
17.1
0.0
57.8
41.9
15.9
47.2
18.1
0.0
62.1
36.5
25.5
50.5
22.0
0.0
43.4
6.1
37.3
52.0
24.4
0.0
42.9
0.0
42.9
54.8
20.9
0.0
43.0
0.0
43.0
57.0
16.9
0.0
42.4
0.0
42.4
57.2
24.4
0.0
46.4
0.0
46.4
57.5
24.1
0.0
51.7
0.0
51.7
137.1
13.3
106.5
8.6
8.4
0.3
145.6
17.5
110.1
10.1
7.6
0.3
149.4
18.9
110.5
11.1
8.6
0.3
156.7
19.8
114.8
12.0
9.7
0.3
162.8
21.0
117.5
13.0
11.0
0.3
172.7
21.9
123.6
14.3
12.6
0.3
182.9
22.8
129.4
15.9
14.5
0.3
192.4
23.9
135.2
16.9
16.0
0.4
202.5
24.9
141.4
18.0
17.7
0.4
211.8
25.8
147.4
18.9
19.4
0.4
221.5
26.7
153.5
19.7
21.2
0.4
0.9
3.6
0.4
2.6
0.3
-0.8
0.9
1.0
0.6
1.6
2.4
0.9
1.2
0.9
1.0
2.1
2.8
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.9
0.9
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
66.3
51.0
7.7
7.6
60.9
43.8
8.1
8.9
49.9
35.0
6.3
8.6
56.4
39.6
7.5
9.3
63.7
44.6
9.0
10.0
71.4
49.7
10.4
11.3
80.0
55.2
12.1
12.7
84.7
58.4
12.8
13.5
89.7
61.8
13.6
14.3
93.0
63.9
14.2
14.8
96.3
66.1
14.8
15.4
-2.8
-3.7
-2.0
1.2
2.5
2.5
3.7
1.5
2.3
2.1
3.0
2.4
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
9660
216
4690
2837
184
1530
2030
9926
279
4712
3250
186
1281
2180
10293
317
5199
2903
177
1546
1510
10312
329
4955
3008
188
1671
1610
9800
334
4134
3253
211
1695
1720
9695
335
3796
3388
235
1753
1880
9997
337
3822
3617
261
1753
2060
10246
344
3916
3688
269
1817
2140
10607
352
4026
3816
276
1914
2230
10873
359
4149
3868
278
1991
2280
11140
367
4292
3942
277
2029
2330
0.6
3.9
1.0
0.2
-0.4
0.1
-3.0
0.0
-0.5
0.5
-2.3
1.1
1.8
0.9
1.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
-0.8
1.1
2.2
0.3
1.8
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
1.3
0.0
-10.6
-6.5
5.7
16.0
-3.8
55.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.2
32.5
1.3
53.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
7.6
0.0
-4.1
2.7
-4.9
7.3
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-1.8
1.2
-3.6 -100.0
0.0
-7.7
0.0 -100.0
4.2
4.9
-0.3
-0.4
2.4
0.6
2.9
1.2
0.1
5.6
-0.1
0.3
25.0
3.8
2.7
16.8
7.4
3.3
0.0
8.2
2.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.3
1.4
1.8
-3.8 -100.0
0.0
14.3
5.0
2.8
4.2
0.5
0.3
18.0
4.0
2.6
10.4
7.1
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.9
2.1
0.8
3.3
2.6
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
-14.5
0.0 -100.0
3.8
3.2
0.7
3.8
-5.1
-2.8
5.6
-2.4
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.2
0.4
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
93
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Bulgaria: Reference scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
9868
4295
70
12
4699
792
230
562
0
0
0
10630
4178
60
384
4826
1182
373
776
0
0
33
10437
4942
46
0
3956
1493
435
955
59
12
33
11045
5214
46
0
4015
1771
403
1054
115
155
43
11030
4810
46
0
4042
2133
400
1383
120
182
48
11434
5025
46
0
4042
2321
394
1478
124
267
59
10647
3994
46
0
4042
2565
398
1512
231
377
47
10283
3890
46
0
3574
2774
402
1624
231
421
95
11398
1757
46
0
6474
3121
406
1843
328
454
90
12082
2175
46
0
6474
3388
410
1986
335
569
89
12922
2818
46
0
6474
3584
414
2151
336
592
91
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
8725
2258
4125
5396
-1271
2742
-397
9589
2553
5257
6457
-1201
2458
-652
7230
1700
4180
6071
-1891
2131
-726
7228
1213
3832
5729
-1897
3163
-883
7012
1202
3639
5445
-1806
3318
-960
6799
1116
3510
5188
-1679
3400
-967
6710
1364
3510
5020
-1511
3518
-1356
6910
1220
3534
4870
-1336
3930
-1363
6499
1050
3562
4731
-1169
3784
-1366
6225
1187
3547
4555
-1008
3518
-1386
6254
1421
3544
4388
-844
3424
-1373
-1.9
-2.8
0.1
1.2
4.1
-2.5
6.2
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
18707
6433
4252
2932
4699
-397
788
20077
6895
5047
2804
4826
-652
1157
17831
6887
4027
2241
3956
-726
1446
18136
6427
3741
3162
4015
-883
1674
17877
6012
3520
3317
4042
-960
1946
18050
6141
3375
3398
4042
-967
2061
17162
5358
3364
3515
4042
-1356
2239
16991
5110
3383
3925
3574
-1363
2363
17688
2807
3405
3779
6474
-1366
2589
18089
3361
3380
3512
6474
-1386
2748
18949
4240
3370
3418
6474
-1373
2821
34.4
22.7
15.7
25.1
4.2
34.3
25.1
14.0
24.0
5.8
38.6
22.6
12.6
22.2
8.1
35.4
20.6
17.4
22.1
9.2
33.6
19.7
18.6
22.6
10.9
34.0
18.7
18.8
22.4
11.4
31.2
19.6
20.5
23.5
13.0
30.1
19.9
23.1
21.0
13.9
15.9
19.2
21.4
36.6
14.6
18.6
18.7
19.4
35.8
15.2
22.4
17.8
18.0
34.2
14.9
40639
10533
43964
9116
46009
9220
50140
8340
51374
7953
52206
8001
58405
8278
60581
8656
62802
8435
66106
9036
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
5986
4928
171
884
3
0
0
6689
5817
174
697
2
0
0
7552
6611
218
719
4
0
0
7041
5899
25
1079
38
0
0
6692
5500
29
1121
42
0
0
6921
5682
31
1168
40
0
0
6410
4935
92
1330
53
0
0
6726
4726
39
1700
204
56
0
4292
2442
43
1460
291
56
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
12382
5479
0
324
6579
13822
6738
0
368
6717
11449
6205
13
304
4927
10360
5844
47
409
4060
10286
5560
214
430
4081
9850
5303
202
274
4071
9664
5135
209
258
4062
9055
4986
202
275
3592
Energy Branch Consumption
1062
1015
1002
880
832
827
831
Non-Energy Uses
1265
1069
443
619
785
799
810
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
8640
9814
8842
9387
9461
9552
3523
2681
842
2155
969
1993
3714
2839
875
2117
1126
2856
2541
1768
772
2246
1175
2880
2695
1842
853
2426
1309
2957
2774
1896
878
2435
1352
2901
879
3003
1238
2085
879
555
0
978
3665
1243
2211
939
777
0
470
3142
981
2330
963
956
0
486
3105
1188
2615
1000
993
0
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
679
1008
1336
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
62.7
43.5
24.6
2.5
8.3
1.4
1.2
5.7
3.9
15.3
66.4
40.6
25.8
48.5
27.9
1.8
8.2
1.2
1.1
8.2
4.6
13.3
61.2
35.8
25.4
45.9
31.2
0.8
3.8
1.0
0.8
8.3
3.1
12.2
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
54.50
57.70
53.20
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
0.6
0.6
1.4
-0.3
-4.1
0.0
-96.6 -100.0
-1.7
0.2
6.5
3.6
6.6
-0.8
5.5
3.8
0.0
7.4
0.0
31.8
0.0
3.9
-0.4
-1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
-0.1
0.9
6.8
7.6
-0.1
1.0
-1.7
0.0
0.0
2.4
1.7
0.2
1.8
1.9
2.3
3.3
-0.3
-3.4
-1.4
-1.1
-0.5
4.5
2.8
-0.4
1.3
-0.4
-0.8
-1.8
0.6
3.5
-0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.7
-2.9
-0.1
0.1
-0.5
0.7
-0.5
-2.7
-1.7
6.2
6.3
0.0
-1.3
-1.3
4.0
0.2
2.8
3.0
-0.4
-1.1
-0.5
0.6
0.0
3.5
1.4
0.5
-1.2
0.0
-0.1
2.4
0.1
1.2
71088
11601
1.2
-1.3
1.1
-1.5
1.3
0.4
1.0
1.7
4706
3014
44
1214
374
61
0
5534
3907
45
1042
478
62
0
2.4
3.0
2.5
-2.0
1.4
0.0
0.0
-1.2
-1.8
-18.1
4.5
27.1
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-1.1
12.0
1.7
2.5
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-1.2
-3.5
-1.2
11.6
0.0
0.0
11863
4847
191
336
6489
11728
4671
189
380
6487
11563
4504
178
396
6486
-0.8
1.3
0.0
-0.6
-2.9
-1.1
-1.1
31.9
3.5
-1.9
-0.6
-0.8
-0.2
-5.0
0.0
0.9
-0.7
-0.8
2.2
2.4
849
805
846
1048
-0.6
-1.8
0.0
1.2
812
811
797
807
-10.0
5.9
0.3
0.0
9676
9876
10205
10422
10680
0.2
0.7
0.2
0.5
2836
1957
878
2507
1371
2839
2868
1974
894
2543
1381
2884
2926
2014
912
2664
1341
2945
3031
2086
945
2809
1359
3006
3053
2093
960
2957
1381
3031
3120
2122
998
3077
1402
3081
-3.2
-4.1
-0.9
0.4
1.9
3.8
0.9
0.7
1.3
0.8
1.4
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.0
0.1
0.3
468
2899
1130
2684
1033
1249
0
433
2789
1304
2743
957
1327
0
398
2791
1198
2872
1093
1323
0
361
2818
1277
3021
1177
1222
0
347
2850
1314
3240
1221
1232
0
328
2836
1214
3448
1332
1263
1
312
2839
1267
3663
1385
1214
1
-6.1
0.5
-2.3
1.1
0.9
5.6
0.0
0.0
-0.8
1.4
1.4
0.7
2.7
0.0
-1.6
-0.4
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
13.0
-1.2
0.1
0.3
1.2
1.2
-0.4
8.4
1598
1871
1986
2137
2195
2427
2573
2621
7.0
3.4
1.3
1.0
57.3
33.3
24.0
43.6
28.5
0.8
4.1
1.0
0.8
8.4
3.1
10.6
55.0
31.8
23.1
41.2
26.9
0.7
4.0
1.0
0.8
7.8
3.7
10.1
55.3
32.5
22.8
41.6
27.4
0.7
4.3
0.9
0.7
7.6
3.7
10.0
52.1
29.7
22.4
38.5
24.6
0.7
4.0
0.7
0.7
7.7
3.8
9.8
52.5
29.7
22.7
38.5
24.5
0.7
4.0
0.7
0.7
7.9
4.1
9.8
42.3
19.8
22.5
28.6
14.4
0.7
4.1
0.7
0.6
8.1
4.3
9.4
43.3
21.0
22.3
29.5
15.7
0.7
3.8
0.6
0.6
8.1
4.3
9.5
37.8
15.6
22.2
24.5
10.7
0.6
3.7
0.6
0.6
8.2
3.9
9.5
-0.2
0.5
2.4
-10.3
-7.6
-3.1
-3.9
3.9
-2.3
-2.2
0
-1.1
-1.2
-0.9
-1.1
-1.5
-1.3
0.6
0.2
-0.5
-0.6
1.7
-1.9
0
-0.5
-0.7
-0.3
-0.7
-0.9
-0.7
0.1
-3.2
-1.1
-0.1
0.4
-0.3
0
-1.6
-3.2
0.0
-2.2
-4.1
-0.3
-0.4
-1.3
-0.6
0.3
0.1
-0.2
0
49.80
47.80
48.10
45.30
45.60
36.80
37.70
32.90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
Source: PRIMES
94
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Bulgaria: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
8.191
24.2
774.0
2.33
46.5
7.761
31.6
636.2
2.41
47.5
7.564
36.1
494.6
2.57
40.3
7.362
40.9
443.5
2.40
39.6
7.121
45.1
396.3
2.31
38.9
6.856
48.0
376.4
2.30
37.3
6.611
51.5
333.1
2.24
38.7
6.406
55.4
306.8
2.27
40.2
6.235
59.2
298.9
1.61
36.3
6.070
62.3
290.2
1.63
34.0
5.899
64.9
291.9
1.29
32.6
-0.8
4.1
-4.4
1.0
-0.6
2.3
-2.2
-1.1
-0.7
1.3
-1.7
-0.3
-0.6
1.2
-0.7
-2.7
5.3
21.7
7.6
24.0
9.2
25.5
11.8
28.9
13.7
30.3
15.0
31.3
16.1
31.2
16.8
30.3
18.6
31.4
19.5
31.3
20.8
32.1
5.7
4.1
1.6
1.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
26.2
46.9
78.7
71.6
89.1
26.8
55.8
40.5
67.1
83.8
23.8
49.5
38.3
63.9
81.7
23.1
47.9
36.2
57.8
75.8
20.8
46.2
35.0
55.6
71.7
19.1
43.2
32.8
51.9
67.1
18.4
41.5
31.3
49.8
60.4
17.9
40.6
30.2
48.3
57.3
17.6
39.7
28.9
47.5
55.2
17.5
38.7
28.2
47.4
53.9
17.4
38.3
-8.6
-3.9
-1.8
-0.9
0.5
-1.1
-1.5
-1.0
-1.3
-0.7
-1.0
-1.1
-1.2
-1.2
-1.1
-0.8
-0.5
-1.1
-0.3
-0.4
0.46
1.91
2.35
0.63
1.24
2.84
0.49
1.91
2.22
0.58
0.97
2.87
0.51
1.57
1.48
0.44
0.69
2.88
0.44
1.53
1.50
0.43
0.60
2.85
0.40
1.43
1.44
0.42
0.57
2.69
0.41
1.42
1.50
0.35
0.54
2.69
0.33
1.36
1.40
0.29
0.50
2.68
0.32
1.35
1.38
0.27
0.49
2.68
0.18
1.32
1.35
0.23
0.46
2.68
0.18
1.26
1.23
0.21
0.45
2.67
0.12
1.23
1.20
0.18
0.43
2.68
1.2
-1.9
-4.5
-3.5
-5.7
0.1
-2.4
-0.9
-0.3
-0.6
-1.9
-0.7
-2.0
-0.5
-0.3
-3.6
-1.3
0.0
-5.0
-0.5
-0.8
-2.3
-0.7
0.0
6.8
0.1
9.1
0.2
13.2
0.8
15.6
2.5
18.2
10.1
19.2
10.1
20.3
10.6
20.4
10.5
21.9
10.2
22.7
10.4
22.1
10.0
40646
18178
16941
661
2178
15
2673
0
0
0
0
9723
3473
977
977
0
0
0
5273
1129
0
4426
578
235
35
0
0
43972
18653
18458
606
1896
17
4337
5
0
0
0
9899
2678
1977
1967
10
0
0
5244
1177
0
4375
600
234
35
0
0
46017
15249
22606
393
1967
49
5057
681
15
0
0
8665
1885
2607
2207
375
25
0
4174
970
0
3285
615
262
11
0
0
50140
15310
22209
101
4913
172
4686
1337
1414
0
0
10234
1910
4194
2284
850
1060
0
4130
1093
0
2711
1105
264
50
0
0
51374
15310
21343
101
6868
187
4657
1395
1515
0
0
11232
1923
4323
2284
923
1116
0
4986
1510
0
2891
1803
237
55
0
0
52206
15310
22026
81
6892
179
4585
1440
1693
0
0
11922
1923
4412
2284
923
1205
0
5587
2020
0
2866
2346
320
55
0
0
58405
15310
24062
473
8611
260
4631
2684
2375
0
0
13355
1923
5333
2284
1515
1534
0
6099
2368
0
3518
2283
239
59
0
0
60581
15450
23239
218
10789
1025
4680
2684
2430
65
0
12888
1939
5360
2284
1515
1561
0
5588
2503
0
2943
2384
192
62
0
7
62802
28197
12612
101
9285
1499
4723
3813
2506
65
0
14946
3539
6227
2284
2346
1598
0
5180
2553
0
2563
2308
195
106
0
7
66106
28197
15771
178
7800
1948
4762
3892
3488
70
0
15645
3539
6868
2284
2346
2238
0
5238
2769
104
2631
2292
158
149
0
8
71088
28197
21005
204
6737
2520
4810
3908
3634
72
0
16385
3539
6972
2284
2354
2334
0
5874
2892
1235
3762
1773
158
174
0
8
1.1
1.3
0.0
0.0
-0.6
1.2
-12.7
16.7
13.3
2.3
14.3
3.3
-0.8
-0.1
7.4
6.8
58.8
4.6
-93.4 -100.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
1.7
0.2
0.0
5.2
2.1
0.3
0.0
9.4
5.1
46.2
3.2
0.0
0.0
1.8
2.0
4.5
4.6
0.0
0.0
-1.3
2.0
11.4
2.4
-1.0
0.1
17.6
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
3.1
-0.7
-4.1
-1.2
12.0
0.2
1.9
2.2
0.0
0.0
1.0
3.1
1.3
0.0
2.2
2.1
0.0
-0.2
1.0
0.0
0.3
-1.3
-2.1
5.6
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
43.0
46.0
54.8
52.3
49.3
47.1
47.2
50.6
45.6
45.6
45.4
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
28.4
7.8
0.0
51.3
44.7
6.6
27.0
6.1
0.0
52.3
42.4
9.9
28.5
8.0
0.0
45.7
33.1
12.6
33.5
12.1
0.0
45.7
30.5
15.2
36.6
17.0
0.0
44.9
29.8
15.1
36.3
19.3
0.0
44.5
29.3
15.1
44.8
22.9
0.0
43.2
26.2
17.0
45.2
24.5
0.0
43.5
25.5
18.0
47.2
23.4
0.0
65.0
44.9
20.1
47.1
24.1
1.7
64.1
42.7
21.4
47.5
23.7
18.4
60.7
39.7
21.0
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
47.7
14.6
27.5
3.9
1.7
0.0
56.0
13.7
35.8
2.8
3.6
0.0
65.5
10.6
47.9
3.0
3.9
0.0
68.3
10.9
49.1
3.4
4.8
0.0
71.0
11.2
50.0
3.8
6.0
0.0
73.8
11.5
50.9
4.1
7.2
0.0
76.8
11.9
51.8
4.4
8.7
0.0
79.4
12.2
52.9
4.5
9.8
0.0
82.0
12.5
53.7
4.7
11.1
0.0
83.7
12.6
54.0
4.8
12.3
0.0
85.5
12.7
54.1
4.9
13.7
0.0
3.2
-3.1
5.7
-2.5
8.9
-2.4
0.8
0.6
0.4
2.4
4.5
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.4
1.4
3.8
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.6
2.3
0.2
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
12.3
6.4
5.5
0.3
20.3
14.4
5.2
0.8
23.7
19.4
3.1
1.2
25.4
20.6
3.5
1.4
27.3
21.8
4.0
1.5
29.3
23.1
4.6
1.6
31.5
24.5
5.2
1.8
33.4
26.0
5.5
1.9
35.3
27.5
5.8
2.0
36.5
28.4
6.0
2.1
37.7
29.3
6.2
2.1
6.8
11.7
-5.7
14.3
1.4
1.1
2.7
2.4
1.5
1.2
2.7
1.6
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
1822
142
987
513
78
101
20
2632
131
1156
1075
65
201
40
2730
99
1270
1129
46
182
60
2792
99
1246
1171
49
220
70
2738
101
1119
1207
53
250
70
2678
99
1023
1213
57
279
80
2722
99
993
1248
61
313
80
2778
99
982
1296
61
331
90
2843
100
972
1341
60
362
90
2875
98
961
1356
58
394
90
2929
98
953
1388
55
426
90
4.1
-3.6
2.6
8.2
-5.2
6.1
13.8
0.0
0.0
0.2
-1.3
0.7
1.6
3.2
2.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-1.2
0.3
1.3
2.3
1.3
0.0
0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.5
-0.5
1.6
0.6
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
1.2
-1.7
2.9
-5.1
-1.0
12.6
6.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.1
-5.9
10.3
8.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.3
-1.5
0.0
-2.9
0.6
1.1
-11.1
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
95
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Croatia: Reference scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
3590
0
1355
1355
0
880
505
375
0
0
0
3808
0
1037
1865
0
906
545
360
1
0
0
4216
0
761
2215
0
1239
716
499
12
5
7
3021
0
634
995
0
1392
588
666
67
57
13
2248
0
552
0
0
1696
599
849
112
122
15
2265
0
482
0
0
1783
617
847
122
185
12
2385
0
428
0
0
1957
675
934
125
213
10
2463
0
380
0
0
2083
690
1031
125
226
10
2583
0
332
0
0
2251
725
1090
170
255
11
2657
0
284
0
0
2374
742
1135
189
296
12
2595
0
234
0
0
2361
752
1113
197
286
12
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
4176
478
2448
3987
-1539
905
344
5262
624
3637
4374
-737
562
440
4481
699
3000
3662
-662
475
410
5693
505
2914
3526
-613
1969
419
6363
483
2800
3416
-615
2718
486
6258
323
2775
3370
-595
2799
478
6220
262
2856
3402
-546
2692
532
6217
345
2873
3377
-504
2566
573
6225
343
2904
3362
-458
2643
486
6302
245
2934
3347
-413
2877
385
6450
229
2968
3332
-364
2953
439
0.7
3.9
2.1
-0.8
-8.1
-6.2
1.8
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
7847
431
3983
2209
0
344
880
8961
683
4556
2377
0
440
906
8575
683
3713
2632
0
410
1137
8707
505
3541
2964
0
419
1278
8604
483
3345
2718
0
486
1571
8516
323
3250
2799
0
478
1667
8598
262
3277
2692
0
532
1835
8672
345
3246
2565
0
573
1943
8800
343
3229
2643
0
486
2101
8952
245
3210
2876
0
385
2235
9037
229
3195
2953
0
439
2221
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
5.5
50.8
28.2
0.0
11.2
7.6
50.8
26.5
0.0
10.1
8.0
43.3
30.7
0.0
13.3
5.8
40.7
34.0
0.0
14.7
5.6
38.9
31.6
0.0
18.3
3.8
38.2
32.9
0.0
19.6
3.0
38.1
31.3
0.0
21.3
4.0
37.4
29.6
0.0
22.4
3.9
36.7
30.0
0.0
23.9
2.7
35.9
32.1
0.0
25.0
2.5
35.4
32.7
0.0
24.6
10588
2476
12352
2639
13997
2538
14253
2391
14490
2469
14171
2438
14783
2589
15426
2747
17474
2886
20116
3026
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
1249
357
395
497
0
0
0
1481
537
450
490
4
0
0
1271
532
121
611
7
0
0
1259
364
37
813
44
0
0
1127
343
32
724
28
0
0
1026
197
31
705
93
0
0
1015
134
31
687
163
0
0
983
215
29
554
185
0
0
1085
213
48
628
196
0
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
5440
5345
0
83
12
5375
5259
0
104
13
4419
4314
3
97
4
4198
4057
43
98
0
4163
3865
180
118
0
4031
3747
167
115
1
4006
3720
166
119
1
3943
3648
165
128
1
Energy Branch Consumption
831
832
744
612
512
498
491
Non-Energy Uses
682
715
596
612
594
599
589
5345
6335
6333
6715
6811
6778
1392
847
545
1664
758
1531
1580
911
668
1926
921
1908
1377
752
624
1892
1006
2058
1495
790
705
2000
1032
2188
1562
815
747
1989
1091
2169
74
2665
1009
1009
213
375
0
146
3093
1243
1240
257
356
0
150
2888
1288
1364
245
398
0
141
2891
1425
1412
276
570
0
Annual % Change
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
1.6
-6.1
-91.0 -100.0
-5.6
-3.2
5.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
3.5
3.2
3.6
-1.8
2.9
5.4
0.0
25.0
0.0
37.1
0.0
8.1
0.6
0.0
-2.5
0.0
0.0
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.1
5.7
-4.1
0.4
0.0
-3.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.9
2.3
1.5
1.1
3.6
-3.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
19.0
1.7
-0.2
-5.9
0.2
0.0
-1.2
-0.1
0.9
0.2
-0.7
0.2
-0.1
-2.0
0.5
-1.0
0.9
4.7
-0.7
1.8
0.0
1.8
2.6
0.0
-3.4
-1.0
0.3
0.0
1.7
3.3
0.0
-5.9
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.9
1.6
0.2
-0.7
-0.1
0.5
0.0
-1.0
1.0
20504
3158
2.8
0.2
0.3
-0.3
0.2
0.5
1.6
1.0
1303
116
55
868
265
0
0
1317
100
55
916
246
0
0
0.2
4.1
-11.1
2.1
38.4
0.0
0.0
-1.2
-4.3
-12.5
1.7
15.1
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-9.0
-0.2
-0.5
19.4
0.0
0.0
1.3
-1.4
2.9
1.4
2.1
0.0
0.0
3875
3588
158
127
1
3789
3526
149
113
1
3744
3465
152
125
2
-2.1
-2.1
0.0
1.6
-9.8
-0.6
-1.1
51.3
2.0
-21.8
-0.4
-0.4
-0.8
0.0
11.4
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
0.3
1.7
484
479
473
464
-1.1
-3.7
-0.4
-0.3
584
578
571
564
-1.3
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
6867
7013
7104
7230
7315
1.7
0.7
0.1
0.3
1600
827
773
1987
1084
2107
1599
843
757
1977
1145
2146
1650
872
778
2004
1187
2171
1689
905
784
2002
1224
2188
1761
987
774
2019
1264
2186
1790
1015
775
2018
1296
2212
-0.1
-1.2
1.4
1.3
2.9
3.0
1.3
0.8
1.8
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.5
-0.1
0.6
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.2
138
2721
1346
1498
281
827
0
126
2639
1454
1465
288
806
1
128
2665
1392
1559
287
836
1
130
2642
1409
1642
287
901
1
130
2636
1421
1718
281
916
2
129
2624
1435
1832
285
922
3
129
2616
1467
1908
285
906
3
7.3
0.8
2.5
3.1
1.4
0.6
0.0
-0.9
-0.6
0.4
0.9
1.4
7.6
51.2
-0.7
-0.2
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
12.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
1.0
0.0
0.4
5.3
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
815
847
942
1263
1544
1591
1703
1824
1958
2077
2057
1.5
5.1
1.0
1.0
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
25.7
27.9
10.7
17.1
18.5
4.3
1.8
2.8
2.1
1.4
6.1
2.5
6.8
26.8
10.2
16.6
18.0
3.7
1.5
3.0
2.0
1.4
6.4
2.7
6.1
24.9
9.2
15.8
16.8
3.5
1.3
2.9
1.9
1.3
5.9
2.9
5.2
24.3
8.5
15.8
16.1
2.8
1.2
2.9
2.0
1.3
5.7
2.9
5.3
23.4
7.9
15.5
15.7
2.5
1.2
2.9
2.0
1.2
5.8
2.4
5.4
23.2
8.0
15.2
15.7
2.5
1.2
2.8
2.1
1.2
5.9
2.3
5.2
23.3
8.2
15.1
15.8
2.7
1.2
2.8
2.0
1.2
6.0
2.3
5.2
21.7
6.7
15.0
15.9
2.8
1.1
2.8
2.0
1.2
6.0
0.5
5.3
21.7
6.7
15.0
16.0
2.9
1.1
2.8
2.0
1.2
6.0
0.4
5.3
0.8
16.9
4.1
2.0
2.9
1.9
1.5
4.5
2.6
6.2
30.1
12.6
17.6
20.2
5.1
2.0
3.5
2.4
1.5
5.7
3.1
6.9
0.9
0.3
-1.1
-0.2
1.0
-0.6
3.1
-0.3
1.0
0
-1.1
-1.6
-0.8
-1.0
-2.1
-3.2
0.2
-0.9
-0.4
-0.4
1.2
-2.6
0
-0.6
-1.5
-0.1
-0.7
-3.2
-0.6
-0.1
0.5
-1.0
-0.1
-1.8
0.3
0
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2
0.1
0.8
-0.6
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
-8.6
-0.1
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
80.80
94.80
87.60
84.20
78.40
76.40
73.70
72.80
73.30
68.20
68.20
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
96
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Croatia: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
4.506
35.3
222.5
2.16
53.1
4.466
43.9
204.3
2.25
58.6
4.426
45.9
186.8
2.16
52.2
4.554
51.0
170.7
2.07
65.3
4.632
56.6
152.0
1.96
73.9
4.659
62.2
136.9
1.89
73.4
4.658
67.6
127.2
1.82
72.3
4.646
73.4
118.1
1.81
71.6
4.629
77.7
113.2
1.80
70.7
4.609
81.8
109.4
1.78
70.3
4.573
85.4
105.8
1.77
71.3
-0.2
2.7
-1.7
0.0
0.5
2.1
-2.0
-1.0
0.1
1.8
-1.8
-0.7
-0.1
1.2
-0.9
-0.1
4.2
11.9
6.1
14.0
9.0
19.6
11.3
22.1
12.6
22.2
13.7
22.0
14.7
21.8
15.5
21.1
16.2
20.8
16.9
20.7
17.3
20.2
7.9
3.4
1.6
0.8
0.0
112.1
0.0
47.4
42.1
0.0
102.7
0.0
41.7
43.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
41.6
52.5
98.2
92.5
89.6
39.6
53.4
91.8
80.9
86.3
35.6
49.5
86.3
71.8
77.5
31.8
44.9
83.5
64.5
75.5
29.4
43.9
81.5
59.0
73.0
27.8
43.9
80.1
54.9
71.8
26.7
42.2
81.7
52.0
71.5
25.9
40.7
81.2
49.3
71.4
25.2
40.4
0.0
-1.1
0.0
-1.3
2.2
-0.8
-2.1
-1.5
-1.5
-0.6
-0.9
-2.2
-1.3
-1.9
-1.2
-0.1
-1.3
-0.3
-0.8
-0.4
0.31
2.01
2.07
1.15
1.94
2.94
0.32
2.06
2.22
1.25
1.59
2.97
0.25
1.97
2.06
1.12
1.38
2.97
0.21
1.90
2.00
1.02
1.31
2.92
0.19
1.77
1.85
0.97
1.22
2.72
0.16
1.77
1.82
1.03
1.21
2.72
0.13
1.74
1.79
1.03
1.06
2.72
0.13
1.70
1.69
1.02
1.00
2.72
0.13
1.68
1.66
1.00
0.96
2.72
0.12
1.65
1.59
0.99
0.94
2.73
0.12
1.64
1.58
0.98
0.91
2.72
-2.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
-3.3
0.1
-2.6
-1.1
-1.1
-1.4
-1.2
-0.9
-3.4
-0.2
-0.3
0.6
-1.4
0.0
-0.6
-0.3
-0.6
-0.3
-0.8
0.0
14.5
0.4
12.8
0.4
14.2
0.4
18.1
1.7
21.9
10.3
22.6
10.4
23.9
10.6
25.0
10.8
26.5
10.9
27.6
11.0
27.0
11.3
10590
0
1551
1594
1571
0
5874
0
0
0
0
3310
0
1786
1786
0
0
0
1524
558
0
313
781
387
44
0
0
12354
0
2328
1855
1814
14
6333
10
0
0
0
3587
0
1842
1836
6
0
0
1745
515
0
321
986
394
44
0
0
13999
0
2385
560
2553
33
8329
139
0
0
0
3850
0
1989
1900
89
0
0
1861
486
0
325
1097
396
43
0
0
14253
0
1288
192
4941
188
6842
785
17
0
0
4774
0
2457
2047
394
16
0
2317
515
0
316
1553
400
48
0
0
14490
0
1235
185
4645
126
6965
1299
35
0
0
5198
0
2714
2047
640
27
0
2485
561
0
204
1841
391
48
0
0
14171
0
695
181
4020
409
7179
1417
269
0
0
5442
0
2913
2036
697
180
0
2529
507
0
204
1906
361
59
0
0
14783
0
468
182
3863
695
7853
1451
272
0
0
5931
0
3099
2204
713
182
0
2831
503
0
190
2231
361
50
0
0
15426
0
751
184
3945
795
8022
1456
272
0
0
6373
0
3132
2235
715
182
0
3241
640
0
190
2966
45
41
0
0
17474
0
729
296
4558
842
8430
1974
646
0
0
6877
0
3685
2312
948
426
0
3192
573
0
190
2900
62
41
0
0
20116
0
403
337
6342
1289
8625
2196
923
0
0
7376
0
3978
2331
1040
606
0
3398
979
0
190
2878
56
274
0
0
20504
0
351
336
6706
1153
8744
2291
923
0
0
7646
0
4031
2346
1079
606
0
3615
1060
0
102
3172
66
274
0
0
2.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
4.4
-6.4
-9.9
-10.5
5.0
6.2
0.0
14.4
3.6
-1.8
0.0
25.0
0.0
76.8
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
3.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
3.2
0.6
0.7
0.0
21.8
0.0
70.3
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.9
-1.4
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.4
-4.6
3.5
5.3
0.2
-0.1
-0.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
-9.2
-0.2
-1.8
18.6
1.2
1.1
22.8
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.0
1.3
0.7
1.1
20.9
0.0
1.3
-1.1
0.0
-0.7
1.9
-0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.0
-1.4
3.1
2.8
2.6
0.5
2.3
6.3
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.0
1.3
0.3
2.1
6.2
0.0
1.2
3.8
0.0
-3.0
1.8
-8.1
8.9
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
35.0
37.8
40.1
33.3
31.2
29.0
27.8
27.0
28.4
30.5
30.0
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
32.5
17.0
0.0
55.5
0.0
55.5
34.9
16.8
0.0
51.5
0.0
51.5
37.4
14.3
0.0
60.7
0.0
60.7
45.1
18.5
0.0
54.9
0.0
54.9
47.2
19.1
0.0
58.1
0.0
58.1
44.5
17.0
0.0
65.4
0.0
65.4
44.1
16.2
0.0
69.5
0.0
69.5
49.6
23.8
0.0
68.4
0.0
68.4
50.9
20.2
0.0
68.1
0.0
68.1
55.2
24.2
0.0
64.8
0.0
64.8
55.8
22.5
0.0
63.9
0.0
63.9
28.0
3.3
20.2
1.8
2.8
0.0
32.9
3.4
24.2
1.8
3.4
0.0
34.9
3.4
26.0
2.3
3.1
0.0
38.2
3.7
28.1
2.5
3.9
0.0
41.7
4.0
30.2
2.7
4.8
0.0
44.9
4.2
32.1
2.8
5.7
0.0
48.3
4.5
34.1
3.0
6.7
0.0
50.6
4.6
35.1
3.1
7.8
0.0
53.1
4.7
36.0
3.2
9.1
0.0
54.8
4.8
36.3
3.3
10.4
0.0
56.6
4.9
36.4
3.4
11.8
0.1
2.2
0.1
2.6
2.7
1.3
210.3
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.6
4.3
1.6
1.5
1.0
1.2
1.2
3.5
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.6
2.9
0.6
4.7
2.9
1.8
0.1
12.3
9.3
2.8
0.1
11.5
8.8
2.6
0.1
12.6
9.6
2.8
0.2
13.7
10.5
3.0
0.2
15.0
11.5
3.3
0.2
16.4
12.6
3.6
0.2
17.3
13.4
3.7
0.2
18.2
14.1
3.8
0.2
18.8
14.7
3.9
0.2
19.4
15.2
3.9
0.2
9.4
11.9
3.9
8.5
1.7
1.8
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
0.8
0.9
0.4
0.8
1525
54
1182
147
41
74
280
1901
54
1212
461
47
96
330
2056
54
1270
537
49
108
380
2184
57
1307
606
44
129
410
2165
60
1259
610
44
148
440
2103
61
1184
602
44
165
470
2141
61
1155
646
45
183
510
2167
60
1130
682
45
196
530
2184
61
1122
690
45
213
550
2182
60
1105
685
44
231
560
2208
60
1093
705
43
251
570
3.0
0.0
0.7
13.9
1.9
3.9
2.8
0.0
0.5
1.2
-0.1
1.3
-1.2
3.2
1.6
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.9
0.6
0.3
2.2
1.5
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
1.6
0.5
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
97
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Cyprus: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
44
0
0
0
0
44
0
9
0
35
0
51
0
0
0
0
51
0
10
0
41
0
85
0
1
0
0
84
0
19
3
61
1
146
0
1
0
0
146
0
35
27
82
2
1071
0
1
864
0
206
0
44
53
106
3
2939
0
1
2646
0
292
0
57
63
167
5
4993
0
1
4626
0
366
0
63
73
224
7
5834
0
1
5412
0
421
0
63
87
264
6
6911
0
1
6474
0
436
0
64
87
279
5
7430
0
1
6972
0
456
0
61
87
304
4
7338
0
1
6880
0
457
0
56
87
311
4
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
2545
33
2511
1153
1358
0
0
2822
43
2773
0
2773
0
0
2924
11
2890
0
2890
0
0
2904
15
2832
-1
2833
1
0
1759
13
1679
-1
1680
-48
0
-145
11
1613
-1
1614
-1883
0
-2102
11
1656
-1
1657
-3893
0
-2943
10
1667
-1
1668
-4761
0
-3922
11
1711
-1
1711
-5809
0
-4374
10
1726
-1
1727
-6293
0
-4240
10
1748
-1
1749
-6199
0
1.4
-10.4
1.4
-100.0
7.8
0.0
0.0
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
2393
32
2315
0
0
0
46
2518
36
2426
0
0
0
57
2717
17
2592
0
0
0
108
2834
15
2617
0
0
0
201
2593
13
1447
813
0
0
320
2545
11
1373
756
0
0
406
2625
11
1401
723
0
0
491
2609
10
1401
636
0
0
561
2686
11
1426
647
0
0
601
2728
10
1421
658
0
0
639
2740
10
1418
653
0
0
658
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
1.4
96.7
0.0
0.0
1.9
1.4
96.3
0.0
0.0
2.3
0.6
95.4
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.5
92.4
0.0
0.0
7.1
0.5
55.8
31.3
0.0
12.4
0.4
53.9
29.7
0.0
15.9
0.4
53.4
27.5
0.0
18.7
0.4
53.7
24.4
0.0
21.5
0.4
53.1
24.1
0.0
22.4
0.4
52.1
24.1
0.0
23.4
0.4
51.8
23.8
0.0
24.0
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
3369
357
4376
414
5344
460
5655
493
6482
416
6679
404
7162
415
7177
401
7570
419
8029
439
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
881
0
881
0
0
0
0
1077
0
1077
0
0
0
0
1176
0
1176
0
0
0
0
1114
0
1089
0
25
0
0
863
0
30
805
28
0
0
781
0
5
748
28
0
0
754
0
6
715
33
0
0
671
0
0
629
42
0
0
695
0
0
639
56
0
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
1171
1171
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
0
15
0
0
20
0
19
0
0
73
0
71
0
2
69
0
65
0
4
67
0
62
0
4
66
0
61
0
4
66
0
62
0
4
Energy Branch Consumption
54
22
21
23
13
11
10
9
10
Non-Energy Uses
84
70
83
84
82
81
85
90
96
1632
1816
1921
2043
2089
2098
2186
2200
2258
441
237
204
227
114
850
319
204
115
329
195
972
236
174
61
373
273
1039
262
202
60
377
311
1093
255
197
58
381
365
1089
253
195
58
381
387
1078
268
208
60
376
422
1119
283
218
65
363
419
1136
32
1300
0
258
0
42
0
36
1386
0
341
0
54
0
18
1375
0
420
0
107
0
15
1445
0
444
0
139
0
13
1335
8
521
0
210
2
11
1287
8
539
0
250
4
11
1311
8
580
0
272
4
Annual % Change
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
6.7
28.9
-13.2 -100.0
95.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.6
9.4
0.0
0.0
8.2
8.6
0.0
34.7
5.6
5.6
0.0
16.1
16.6
0.0
0.0
18.3
0.0
5.9
0.0
3.6
3.4
7.7
7.3
1.9
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
-0.6
0.9
1.7
-3.1
-5.0
1.7
-5.3
0.0
-5.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
55.3
-4.0
3.6
-0.2
0.3
0.0
0.3
2.4
-3.4
1.3
-6.4
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.0
-0.5
-2.5
-5.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.5
0.1
-2.0
-0.3
-1.2
0.0
-7.8
4.4
0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.0
1.5
8314
455
4.7
2.6
1.9
-1.0
1.0
0.0
0.7
0.5
708
0
0
650
58
0
0
709
0
0
641
68
0
0
2.9
0.0
2.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-3.1
0.0
-30.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
66
0
61
0
4
69
0
64
0
5
-35.3
-100.0
0.0
0.0
-9.0
17.1
0.0
16.8
0.0
0.0
-0.9
0.0
-1.3
0.0
8.8
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.5
10
11
-9.0
-4.8
-2.0
0.1
102
108
-0.1
-0.2
0.3
1.2
2295
2313
1.6
0.8
0.5
0.3
304
235
69
361
424
1169
321
248
74
357
448
1169
325
248
77
348
461
1179
-6.1
-3.0
-11.3
5.1
9.1
2.0
0.8
1.2
-0.5
0.2
3.0
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.3
-0.1
1.5
0.3
1.0
0.9
1.2
-0.4
0.4
0.3
10
1311
7
582
0
285
5
11
1330
8
614
0
291
5
10
1318
8
651
0
301
5
10
1310
12
674
0
300
6
-5.7
0.6
0.0
5.0
0.0
9.8
7.2
-3.2
-0.3
0.0
2.2
0.0
7.0
0.0
-2.0
-0.2
0.2
1.1
5.0
2.6
9.0
-0.2
0.0
2.1
0.8
3.1
0.5
1.5
-1.3
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-15.5 -100.0
-1.2
-0.5
1.8
3.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
42
51
103
169
281
355
425
481
498
522
529
9.4
10.6
4.2
1.1
10.9
10.1
5.8
4.4
8.1
3.8
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
3.1
0.6
1.5
9.8
5.8
4.0
8.0
3.5
0.0
0.7
0.4
0.2
3.2
0.7
1.1
8.0
4.3
3.7
6.2
2.0
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.2
3.0
0.7
1.2
7.8
4.1
3.7
5.8
1.8
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.2
3.0
0.7
1.3
7.8
4.0
3.8
5.8
1.7
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.2
3.2
0.6
1.4
7.6
3.8
3.8
5.6
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
3.2
0.6
1.5
7.8
4.0
3.9
5.7
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
3.3
0.6
1.5
7.9
4.0
3.9
5.6
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.1
3.3
0.7
1.6
7.9
4.0
3.9
5.6
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.1
3.3
0.7
1.6
-0.7
7.1
2.8
0.1
1.4
0.2
0.0
2.6
0.8
3.0
10.3
6.0
4.3
7.9
3.5
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.1
2.9
0.9
1.4
1.3
2.9
-100.0
-7.5
6.7
0.0
1.8
-3.2
-6.9
0
-2.3
-2.9
-1.6
-2.7
-6.2
0.0
-0.4
-2.8
2.5
-0.1
1.5
-2.2
0
-0.3
-0.7
0.1
-0.6
-1.6
0.0
-1.5
-2.8
-1.9
0.4
-1.6
1.9
0
0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
0.0
0.1
-3.6
-1.6
0.3
0.6
0.7
0
151.10
142.20
140.30
136.50
111.20
107.60
107.80
105.70
108.40
109.50
109.20
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
98
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Cyprus: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
0.690
13.1
182.0
2.98
98.6
0.749
15.4
163.5
3.15
100.7
0.803
17.3
156.7
2.97
100.9
0.839
18.3
155.0
2.84
95.2
0.885
19.8
131.1
2.38
62.2
0.933
21.7
117.6
2.27
-5.2
0.973
24.1
108.8
2.20
-72.7
1.007
27.1
96.2
2.13
-101.8
1.036
30.3
88.7
2.10
-131.2
1.064
33.3
81.8
2.07
-143.2
1.090
36.2
75.7
2.05
-136.9
1.5
2.8
-1.5
0.0
1.0
1.3
-1.8
-2.2
1.0
2.0
-1.9
-0.8
0.6
2.0
-1.8
-0.4
1.1
8.3
2.0
12.8
2.8
16.0
3.4
18.9
3.4
17.4
3.8
17.7
4.3
17.6
4.5
16.5
4.8
15.8
5.0
15.0
5.2
14.4
9.8
2.2
2.1
1.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
49.2
191.9
70.3
121.8
146.5
52.4
174.4
55.4
118.5
174.3
56.9
195.0
59.7
113.0
187.1
53.4
190.0
56.2
104.9
200.8
46.9
184.0
52.9
95.3
192.9
40.4
176.4
51.5
84.1
188.0
36.8
170.3
49.0
71.8
165.4
34.7
165.4
48.0
63.9
149.8
33.3
161.5
47.1
57.2
143.5
32.2
158.2
44.9
51.3
135.9
31.4
155.4
-5.7
1.7
5.7
1.5
0.2
0.1
-1.2
1.4
-1.9
-0.6
-0.9
-2.2
-0.7
-2.4
-0.8
-0.7
-2.4
-1.6
-0.8
-0.5
0.85
2.56
3.16
1.00
0.00
3.01
0.80
2.45
3.10
1.38
0.44
3.00
0.71
2.24
2.72
1.17
0.55
2.95
0.62
2.21
2.71
1.00
0.68
2.94
0.31
2.00
2.41
0.86
0.53
2.80
0.27
1.92
2.12
0.74
0.45
2.81
0.24
1.87
1.97
0.66
0.38
2.82
0.21
1.86
1.87
0.59
0.33
2.82
0.20
1.84
1.78
0.50
0.29
2.82
0.19
1.79
1.71
0.42
0.26
2.83
0.18
1.77
1.66
0.35
0.25
2.82
-1.8
-1.3
-1.5
1.6
0.0
-0.2
-8.0
-1.1
-1.2
-3.0
-0.4
-0.5
-2.5
-0.7
-2.0
-2.7
-3.4
0.1
-1.3
-0.3
-0.8
-3.2
-2.0
0.0
2.9
0.0
3.1
0.0
5.8
2.0
9.2
2.6
15.2
10.1
19.3
10.1
22.5
10.0
25.5
10.0
25.7
10.0
26.4
9.9
26.7
10.3
3370
0
0
3370
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
988
0
0
0
0
0
0
988
0
0
0
0
988
0
0
0
4377
0
0
4376
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1126
0
1
0
0
1
0
1125
0
0
0
0
1125
0
0
0
5326
0
0
5288
0
0
0
31
6
1
0
1577
0
89
0
82
7
0
1488
1
0
0
0
1481
7
0
0
5655
0
0
5116
0
108
0
309
122
0
0
1941
0
224
0
145
79
0
1717
17
0
0
0
1703
14
0
0
6482
0
0
154
5265
125
0
611
327
0
0
2585
0
443
0
249
194
0
2142
15
0
0
721
1404
16
0
0
6679
0
0
26
5082
125
0
736
710
0
0
2943
0
674
0
291
383
0
2269
27
0
0
921
1332
16
0
0
7162
0
0
30
4876
152
0
850
1254
0
0
3209
0
987
0
329
658
0
2221
28
0
0
981
1218
22
0
0
7177
0
0
0
4313
193
0
1009
1661
0
0
3501
0
1232
0
405
828
0
2269
20
0
0
1137
1104
28
0
0
7570
0
0
1
4400
260
0
1009
1901
0
0
3358
0
1325
0
405
920
0
2033
14
0
0
1165
823
45
0
0
8029
0
0
0
4554
280
0
1009
2186
0
0
3251
0
1429
0
405
1024
0
1822
19
0
0
1323
447
52
0
0
8314
0
0
0
4655
337
0
1008
2314
0
0
3378
0
1480
0
405
1075
0
1898
33
0
0
1557
276
65
0
0
4.7
0.0
0.0
4.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
-29.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
34.7
48.2
-95.0
0.0
5.1
0.0
17.4
0.0
11.7
39.4
0.0
3.7
28.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
8.0
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
37.0
41.9
37.0
31.7
28.0
25.4
25.1
23.1
25.4
27.8
27.7
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
32.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
34.9
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
38.8
1.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.7
40.3
0.9
0.0
9.5
0.0
9.5
55.3
1.4
0.0
16.4
0.0
16.4
57.6
1.7
0.0
23.5
0.0
23.5
57.7
1.7
0.0
31.5
0.0
31.5
57.7
1.3
0.0
39.9
0.0
39.9
57.7
1.3
0.0
41.9
0.0
41.9
58.7
1.4
0.0
43.3
0.0
43.3
60.6
2.5
0.0
44.0
0.0
44.0
12.1
1.1
4.1
0.0
6.9
0.0
13.9
1.3
4.9
0.0
7.7
0.0
14.5
1.3
6.0
0.0
7.2
0.0
16.5
1.4
6.4
0.0
8.8
0.0
18.6
1.4
6.6
0.0
10.6
0.0
21.3
1.5
7.2
0.0
12.6
0.0
24.3
1.6
7.7
0.0
15.0
0.0
26.1
1.6
8.1
0.0
16.4
0.0
28.1
1.7
8.5
0.0
17.9
0.0
29.0
1.7
8.7
0.0
18.6
0.0
29.9
1.7
8.8
0.0
19.4
0.0
1.8
1.4
4.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
2.5
1.0
0.9
0.0
4.0
0.0
2.7
0.9
1.6
0.0
3.5
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.7
0.0
1.3
0.0
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
1.4
1.4
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.1
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.1
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
1.4
1.4
0.0
0.0
1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-1.8
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.7
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.0
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
848
29
292
251
0
275
00
969
32
395
243
0
299
00
1039
35
514
212
0
277
00
1093
36
518
214
0
325
00
1089
37
474
214
0
364
00
1078
37
439
218
0
383
00
1119
37
433
224
0
425
00
1136
37
433
229
0
437
00
1169
38
443
235
0
453
00
1169
38
440
236
0
454
00
1179
38
439
239
0
462
00
2.1
2.0
5.8
-1.7
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.4
-0.8
0.1
0.0
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
-0.9
0.5
0.0
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
1.0
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-15.2 -100.0
-0.8
-0.2
2.0
4.1
0.0
0.0
3.4
0.9
14.4
3.1
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
8.3
2.0
0.0
0.0
2.8
1.0
13.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
0.4
-0.8
6.4
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.1
2.3
-1.4
-7.2
3.3
5.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
99
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Czech Republic: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
30628
25049
389
169
3506
1515
151
1364
0
0
0
32868
23570
597
154
6405
2142
205
1933
2
2
0
31554
20730
308
167
7248
3102
240
2772
29
62
0
28043
16268
286
184
8008
3298
284
2704
39
270
0
27656
15287
276
197
8024
3872
291
3173
43
365
0
27636
15121
271
207
8024
4013
294
3168
50
501
0
28916
12882
274
200
11367
4193
296
3273
54
570
0
30184
11084
227
209
14354
4310
298
3274
56
682
0
31476
12153
148
196
14422
4558
321
3493
58
686
0
32240
12960
21
97
14490
4673
350
3539
59
724
0
32245
12757
0
0
14720
4768
356
3640
60
712
0
0.3
-1.9
-2.3
-0.1
7.5
7.4
4.7
7.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.3
-3.0
-1.1
1.7
1.0
2.2
2.0
1.4
4.1
19.5
0.0
0.4
0.5
-1.7
0.0
-0.1 -100.0
0.2 -100.0
3.5
1.3
0.8
0.6
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.5
2.4
0.5
4.6
1.1
-1.2
0.2
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
9495
-4721
7593
5656
1937
7482
-861
12795
-3270
9803
7855
1948
7535
-1086
11461
-2968
8988
7854
1134
6846
-1285
14571
-2626
9219
8016
1204
8125
-621
14725
-2807
9096
7920
1176
8258
-560
14339
-3432
8988
7815
1173
8578
-612
14363
-3422
9155
7915
1240
8337
-660
15096
-3103
9370
8072
1297
8828
-1023
14527
-4070
9562
8212
1350
9104
-1225
14825
-4338
9756
8373
1383
9390
-1259
15325
-4620
9782
8384
1398
9971
-1222
1.9
-4.5
1.7
3.3
-5.2
-0.9
4.1
2.5
-0.6
0.1
0.1
0.4
1.9
-8.0
-0.2
2.0
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.1
1.7
0.3
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.9
3.1
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
41270
21643
7965
7500
3506
-861
1518
45279
20248
10054
7703
6405
-1086
1955
44771
18474
9335
8019
7248
-1285
2981
42614
13642
9505
8308
8008
-621
3772
42381
12479
9372
8455
8024
-560
4612
41975
11689
9258
8785
8024
-612
4831
43279
9460
9429
8537
11367
-660
5147
45280
7981
9597
9037
14354
-1023
5334
46004
8083
9710
9300
14422
-1225
5714
47066
8622
9777
9487
14490
-1259
5948
47571
8137
9782
9971
14720
-1222
6183
0.8
-1.6
1.6
0.7
7.5
4.1
7.0
-0.5
-3.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
-8.0
4.5
0.2
-2.7
0.1
0.1
3.5
1.7
1.1
0.5
-0.8
0.2
0.8
1.3
3.1
0.9
52.4
19.3
18.2
8.5
3.7
44.7
22.2
17.0
14.1
4.3
41.3
20.9
17.9
16.2
6.7
32.0
22.3
19.5
18.8
8.9
29.4
22.1
19.9
18.9
10.9
27.8
22.1
20.9
19.1
11.5
21.9
21.8
19.7
26.3
11.9
17.6
21.2
20.0
31.7
11.8
17.6
21.1
20.2
31.4
12.4
18.3
20.8
20.2
30.8
12.6
17.1
20.6
21.0
30.9
13.0
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
72898
10600
81917
11631
85303
11114
76298
9210
75945
9019
78639
9591
81420
9263
89244
9811
96399
12054
101684
13620
106722
14483
1.6
0.5
-1.2
-2.1
0.7
0.3
1.4
2.3
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
15886
13945
311
1236
395
0
0
15702
14025
161
1292
224
0
0
15321
13595
78
1108
540
0
0
10649
9076
1
704
867
0
0
10100
8192
2
890
1015
0
0
10125
7908
2
1100
1114
0
0
8123
5666
5
1232
1219
0
0
6814
4297
7
1275
1234
0
0
7299
4618
9
1464
1208
0
0
7943
5212
10
1511
1210
0
0
8253
4891
11
1848
1504
0
0
-0.4
-0.3
-12.9
-1.1
3.2
0.0
0.0
-4.1
-4.9
-30.9
-2.2
6.5
0.0
0.0
-2.2
-3.6
10.3
3.3
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.7
3.6
2.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
15076
6219
64
948
7846
19896
8276
3
922
10696
20111
8372
231
815
10693
20599
8490
305
930
10874
20783
8391
587
956
10849
20207
8284
584
538
10802
23722
8390
607
451
14274
26808
8503
618
388
17299
26802
8567
635
343
17257
27000
8608
628
315
17450
27064
8599
641
268
17555
2.9
3.0
13.8
-1.5
3.1
0.3
0.0
9.8
1.6
0.1
1.3
0.0
0.3
-7.2
2.8
0.7
0.1
0.3
-2.6
1.0
Energy Branch Consumption
1772
1807
1774
1485
1446
1474
1443
1470
1635
1759
1789
0.0
-2.0
0.0
1.1
Non-Energy Uses
2188
3004
2767
2901
2989
2951
2986
3060
3098
3132
3145
2.4
0.8
0.0
0.3
24709
25999
25618
26863
27137
27124
27404
28187
28796
29431
29864
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.4
10119
6380
3740
6023
4162
4405
9682
6749
2934
6216
3910
6191
8755
5741
3015
6619
3949
6295
9412
6154
3259
6852
3992
6607
9570
6090
3480
6879
3972
6715
9605
5970
3635
6885
3931
6703
10117
6249
3868
6698
3694
6895
10549
6445
4104
6866
3723
7050
10881
6579
4303
6945
3756
7213
11250
6701
4549
7031
3870
7280
11432
6686
4745
7125
3950
7357
-1.4
-1.1
-2.1
0.9
-0.5
3.6
0.9
0.6
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.3
1.1
-0.3
-0.7
0.3
0.6
0.3
1.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
5007
5386
6491
4246
2624
955
0
3640
6926
6741
4754
2478
1462
0
3081
6631
6688
4919
2249
2048
0
3302
6670
7199
5003
2434
2255
1
3075
6447
7125
5056
2528
2900
5
2664
6393
7436
5188
2284
3149
10
2664
6522
7202
5412
2268
3324
12
2561
6640
7701
5678
2110
3484
12
2417
6742
7745
5893
2141
3845
13
2296
6784
7978
6173
2162
4025
15
2182
6803
8099
6567
2226
3970
17
-4.7
2.1
0.3
1.5
-1.5
7.9
14.0
0.0
-0.3
0.6
0.3
1.2
3.5
90.4
-1.4
0.1
0.1
0.7
-1.1
1.4
9.9
-1.0
0.2
0.6
1.0
-0.1
0.9
1.9
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
1233
1666
2484
3079
3931
4079
4371
4542
5052
5278
5462
7.3
4.7
1.1
1.1
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
150.9
139.8
79.3
60.4
117.0
63.8
1.8
20.7
8.1
4.9
17.7
4.8
18.0
120.1
61.9
58.2
98.7
43.1
1.8
21.8
8.6
5.1
18.3
5.8
15.6
114.3
58.0
56.3
93.4
40.6
1.7
20.0
8.1
5.2
17.8
5.8
15.1
111.5
55.7
55.8
90.7
38.9
1.5
19.9
7.7
5.1
17.7
5.7
15.1
101.1
46.1
55.1
81.1
29.1
1.5
21.0
7.1
4.3
18.1
5.2
14.8
95.3
40.4
54.9
76.4
23.9
1.5
21.0
7.2
4.2
18.4
4.7
14.3
91.6
36.7
54.9
72.1
21.1
1.5
19.6
6.9
4.3
18.8
4.7
14.8
88.5
33.6
54.9
69.5
18.3
1.5
19.9
6.5
4.3
18.9
3.9
15.0
83.2
28.8
54.4
67.4
16.5
1.5
19.6
6.5
4.3
19.0
0.6
15.3
-0.8
125.4
66.8
2.6
28.4
8.3
6.8
12.6
5.6
19.9
148.7
87.3
61.4
124.1
66.2
2.3
24.8
7.9
5.0
18.1
5.3
19.3
-0.7
-0.5
-3.4
-3.1
-0.2
-3.2
3.5
-1.7
-1.0
0
-2.0
-3.1
-0.7
-2.2
-4.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.7
0.0
2.0
-1.8
0
-1.2
-2.3
-0.2
-1.4
-3.3
-1.5
0.5
-1.3
-1.8
0.2
-1.0
-0.2
0
-1.0
-2.3
-0.1
-0.9
-2.8
0.0
-0.3
-0.5
0.0
0.3
-10.4
0.2
0
76.90
75.70
71.20
61.20
58.20
56.80
51.50
48.60
46.60
45.00
42.40
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
100
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
APPENDIX 2
Czech Republic: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
10.278
107.0
385.8
3.04
23.0
10.221
130.7
346.4
2.74
28.3
10.507
149.3
299.8
2.61
25.6
10.691
165.0
258.3
2.32
34.2
10.816
184.3
230.0
2.20
34.7
10.864
200.5
209.3
2.16
34.2
10.840
218.8
197.8
1.87
33.2
10.782
237.3
190.8
1.69
33.3
10.740
255.9
179.8
1.57
31.6
10.715
274.0
171.8
1.48
31.5
10.668
290.0
164.0
1.42
32.2
0.2
3.4
-2.5
-1.5
0.3
2.1
-2.6
-1.7
0.0
1.7
-1.5
-1.6
-0.1
1.4
-0.9
-1.4
15.6
14.6
21.4
16.4
29.4
19.7
35.5
21.5
39.6
21.5
42.3
21.1
44.6
20.4
47.0
19.8
49.9
19.5
52.9
19.3
54.9
18.9
6.6
3.0
1.2
1.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
26.8
27.5
68.9
86.6
81.3
29.2
48.0
46.0
82.3
76.4
27.9
47.3
45.8
77.4
68.8
26.8
45.6
41.6
69.7
60.9
24.4
43.9
38.5
64.0
55.0
22.1
41.2
36.3
56.8
47.4
21.1
39.2
34.6
53.2
43.8
20.4
37.8
33.1
49.5
40.9
19.8
36.4
31.9
46.3
39.2
19.2
35.4
30.8
43.8
37.6
18.6
34.6
-7.5
-1.9
-2.7
0.4
5.6
-1.0
-1.6
-2.2
-1.3
-0.8
-1.3
-2.0
-2.5
-1.5
-1.1
-0.8
-1.3
-1.1
-0.6
-0.6
0.60
2.26
2.80
1.37
1.63
2.85
0.55
2.14
2.56
1.26
1.27
2.92
0.53
2.00
2.37
1.22
1.24
2.81
0.38
2.00
2.31
1.25
1.28
2.78
0.35
1.88
2.09
1.18
1.31
2.64
0.34
1.86
2.08
1.12
1.29
2.64
0.25
1.84
2.07
1.06
1.18
2.62
0.19
1.81
1.99
1.05
1.14
2.61
0.16
1.72
1.80
0.99
1.13
2.60
0.13
1.69
1.77
0.93
1.12
2.60
0.12
1.65
1.71
0.91
1.10
2.58
-1.3
-1.2
-1.7
-1.2
-2.7
-0.1
-4.0
-0.6
-1.2
-0.4
0.6
-0.6
-3.4
-0.2
-0.1
-1.0
-1.1
-0.1
-3.7
-0.5
-0.9
-0.8
-0.4
-0.1
4.7
1.3
5.9
0.2
9.0
4.2
10.9
5.5
13.8
10.3
14.3
10.6
15.2
10.9
15.4
10.9
16.7
11.0
17.0
10.9
17.3
11.1
72911
13590
52561
372
3907
723
1758
0
0
0
0
13312
1706
947
947
0
0
0
10659
3733
0
8972
1286
129
272
0
0
81931
24728
49522
326
4215
739
2380
21
0
0
0
15607
3621
1044
1016
28
1
0
10943
3808
0
8871
1525
276
271
0
0
85319
27998
47113
159
4121
2188
2789
335
616
0
0
18071
3636
3251
1077
215
1960
0
11184
2889
0
8866
1703
279
336
0
0
76298
30765
32031
6
3825
3817
3307
458
2090
0
0
18930
3820
3475
1188
277
2011
0
11635
3359
0
8253
2394
414
575
0
0
75945
30692
30181
11
4555
4483
3388
498
2138
0
0
18395
3827
3509
1192
307
2011
0
11059
3601
0
7633
2417
342
666
0
0
78639
30692
31802
14
5092
4839
3422
582
2198
0
0
16811
3827
3586
1192
352
2042
0
9397
3697
0
5908
2497
326
666
0
0
81420
45074
18520
13
6444
5069
3446
632
2223
0
0
17998
5597
3649
1194
387
2068
0
8752
3644
0
5326
2418
322
686
0
0
89244
57814
13812
20
6288
4947
3465
655
2243
0
0
20437
7162
3698
1195
414
2089
0
9577
3458
0
6144
2436
311
686
0
0
96399
58100
20646
37
6294
4647
3728
677
2270
0
0
21630
7197
3804
1248
438
2117
0
10629
3681
846
7167
2452
297
714
0
0
101684
58399
24745
43
6834
4609
4067
690
2297
0
0
22191
7233
3917
1318
453
2145
0
11040
3911
1504
7443
2715
293
589
0
0
106722
61813
23478
62
8786
5411
4138
703
2331
0
0
22755
7624
3978
1330
468
2180
0
11152
4134
1609
7524
2848
158
624
0
0
1.6
-1.2
7.5
0.9
-1.1
-4.4
-8.1
-23.6
0.5
1.0
11.7
7.4
4.7
2.0
0.0
4.1
0.0
13.3
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
3.1
0.2
7.9
0.5
13.1
0.8
1.3
1.0
0.0
3.6
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.5
-0.1
-2.5
2.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-1.5
2.9
3.6
8.0
2.1
2.2
7.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
3.9
-4.8
2.2
3.5
1.2
0.2
2.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
3.9
0.4
0.0
2.4
0.3
0.0
-2.3
0.1
0.0
-3.5
0.0
-0.6
0.3
0.0
0.0
1.4
1.6
1.2
8.0
1.6
0.3
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.6
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.3
0.0
1.2
0.6
0.0
1.7
0.8
-3.5
-0.5
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
57.9
55.3
49.8
43.2
44.4
50.1
48.9
47.3
47.4
48.3
49.4
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
31.2
17.9
0.0
22.0
18.6
3.4
30.0
16.8
0.0
34.0
30.2
3.8
30.1
14.2
0.0
39.8
32.8
6.9
32.0
16.8
0.0
53.0
40.3
12.7
33.4
20.5
0.0
54.2
40.4
13.8
35.5
23.0
0.0
53.1
39.0
14.0
31.8
20.9
0.0
69.3
55.4
14.0
31.6
19.1
0.0
77.5
64.8
12.7
37.3
18.9
8.7
72.0
60.3
11.7
39.2
18.6
14.2
68.9
57.4
11.5
39.3
18.4
14.3
69.7
57.9
11.8
103.4
16.2
66.8
15.4
5.0
0.0
111.9
15.6
71.8
14.6
9.9
0.0
108.6
17.4
67.1
15.6
8.5
0.0
118.3
18.6
72.4
17.3
10.0
0.0
128.2
19.9
77.2
19.2
11.8
0.0
138.2
21.0
82.5
20.8
14.0
0.0
149.4
22.0
88.4
22.5
16.5
0.0
159.2
22.9
94.1
23.9
18.3
0.0
169.1
23.8
99.5
25.5
20.3
0.0
176.7
24.6
103.4
26.7
21.9
0.0
184.6
25.4
107.6
28.0
23.7
0.0
0.5
0.8
0.0
0.1
5.4
0.0
1.7
1.3
1.4
2.1
3.4
0.0
1.5
1.0
1.4
1.6
3.4
0.0
1.1
0.7
1.0
1.1
1.8
0.0
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
54.9
37.3
17.5
0.1
58.4
43.4
14.9
0.1
65.7
51.8
13.8
0.1
71.2
55.9
15.3
0.1
77.2
60.2
16.9
0.1
83.3
64.6
18.6
0.1
90.0
69.3
20.6
0.1
94.6
72.8
21.8
0.1
99.6
76.4
23.1
0.1
102.7
78.8
23.8
0.1
106.0
81.3
24.6
0.1
1.8
3.3
-2.4
-5.0
1.6
1.5
2.1
1.9
1.5
1.4
2.0
1.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
4280
200
2286
1383
209
197
50
6066
189
2653
2684
193
342
50
6132
210
2393
2998
186
341
40
6422
224
2476
3130
203
384
40
6519
236
2381
3262
220
416
50
6496
239
2254
3309
230
459
50
6677
242
2280
3391
240
517
60
6821
244
2340
3443
244
544
60
6975
248
2398
3500
243
580
60
7034
251
2420
3518
236
603
70
7102
255
2438
3556
228
617
70
3.7
0.5
0.5
8.0
-1.2
5.6
-2.2
0.0
0.6
1.2
-0.1
0.8
1.7
2.0
1.8
0.0
0.2
0.3
-0.4
0.4
0.9
2.2
1.7
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
-0.3
0.9
0.8
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
101
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Denmark: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
28093
0
18600
7428
0
2065
3
1687
365
8
3
31314
0
19011
9397
0
2906
2
2317
569
10
8
23335
0
12479
7357
0
3498
2
2798
671
16
10
24411
0
10422
10300
0
3689
2
2673
913
101
0
20066
0
8631
7177
0
4258
2
2813
1270
172
0
17487
0
7193
5725
0
4570
2
2860
1504
204
0
14616
0
4992
4888
0
4736
2
2829
1679
227
0
13781
0
4377
4558
0
4846
2
2844
1753
246
0
12298
0
3498
3634
0
5166
3
2938
1972
253
0
8050
0
1522
1164
0
5364
3
3015
2076
271
0
6856
0
526
457
0
5874
2
3246
2352
274
0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
-7447
3783
-8463
-8856
393
-2882
57
-10454
3505
-9392
-11255
1863
-5010
118
-3648
2642
-3957
-5214
1257
-3022
-98
-4787
2854
-2587
-3715
1128
-6097
-78
-1612
1680
-1162
-2368
1206
-3485
-103
498
904
62
-1217
1279
-1934
-82
3579
155
2200
778
1422
-265
-79
4443
119
2689
1207
1482
118
-79
6250
45
3569
1984
1585
1065
-78
11031
42
5733
3930
1803
3634
-85
12701
41
6788
4901
1887
4109
-95
-6.9
-3.5
-7.3
-5.2
12.3
0.5
0.0
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
19792
3985
9160
4465
0
57
2124
19765
3713
8289
4413
0
118
3232
19317
3809
6886
4437
0
-98
4283
18851
2854
7065
4201
0
-78
4809
17618
1680
6645
3680
0
-103
5717
17101
904
6394
3768
0
-82
6118
17248
155
6275
4593
0
-79
6305
17252
119
6168
4602
0
-79
6443
17537
45
6174
4580
0
-78
6816
18021
42
6337
4656
0
-85
7070
18438
41
6363
4397
0
-95
7733
20.1
46.3
22.6
0.0
10.7
18.8
41.9
22.3
0.0
16.4
19.7
35.6
23.0
0.0
22.2
15.1
37.5
22.3
0.0
25.5
9.5
37.7
20.9
0.0
32.4
5.3
37.4
22.0
0.0
35.8
0.9
36.4
26.6
0.0
36.6
0.7
35.8
26.7
0.0
37.3
0.3
35.2
26.1
0.0
38.9
0.2
35.2
25.8
0.0
39.2
0.2
34.5
23.8
0.0
41.9
36047
4045
36240
3848
38778
5260
36243
3977
33667
3232
33686
3168
34521
3004
36759
3187
39342
3325
43020
3585
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
7834
3669
1354
2112
699
0
0
7127
3444
346
1996
1341
0
0
7595
3760
216
1809
1811
0
0
5794
2771
45
1614
1365
0
0
4872
1604
48
1394
1826
0
0
4213
833
40
1520
1820
0
0
4084
88
37
2400
1560
0
0
4278
62
41
2410
1765
0
0
4349
0
48
2437
1864
0
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
9033
8496
0
520
17
8460
7928
0
519
13
8105
7277
0
815
13
8146
6670
206
1268
2
7796
6233
356
1204
4
7762
5949
349
1459
5
7868
5745
350
1767
6
7482
5561
359
1555
7
Energy Branch Consumption
1150
1247
1195
1105
895
779
655
301
289
265
275
279
283
286
14719
15497
15535
15072
14336
14027
2932
1156
1777
4160
2805
4821
2863
1107
1756
4451
2856
5327
2434
823
1611
4900
3029
5172
2336
773
1563
4587
2854
5296
2352
794
1557
4210
2660
5115
290
7059
1667
2791
2255
657
0
253
7291
1707
2877
2424
944
0
136
6751
1793
2757
2833
1265
0
80
6260
1594
2670
2819
1648
1
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
1669
2674
3741
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
70.3
53.4
24.5
2.2
5.4
3.9
3.0
14.4
2.5
14.4
65.1
29.2
35.9
50.0
20.3
2.3
5.1
3.6
2.7
15.9
2.2
12.9
62.6
27.8
34.7
48.6
21.1
2.1
3.9
3.2
2.7
15.5
1.3
12.7
100.00
92.60
89.00
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
-1.8
-1.5
0.0 -100.0
-3.9
-3.6
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.0
5.4
2.0
-3.5
0.7
5.2
0.1
6.3
6.6
7.1
26.7
13.9
-43.9
-3.1
0.0
-5.3
-3.8
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.1
2.8
2.8
1.0
-3.7
0.0
-10.6
-11.2
0.0
1.1
-0.1
0.7
1.7
1.0
0.6
-7.8
-4.4
-11.5
-7.6
-0.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
-21.2
0.0
0.0
1.7
-22.7
-2.6
6.5
-6.5
5.8
9.6
1.4
0.0
0.9
-0.2
-0.5
-2.8
-0.1
0.0
0.0
7.3
-0.9
-7.9
-0.4
-1.9
0.0
0.6
2.9
-0.2
-21.2
-0.6
2.2
0.0
-2.6
1.0
0.3
-6.5
0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.9
1.0
46114
3919
0.7
2.7
-1.4
-4.8
0.3
-0.7
1.5
1.3
4615
0
61
2638
1916
0
0
4763
0
60
2363
2341
0
0
-0.3
0.2
-16.8
-1.5
10.0
0.0
0.0
-4.3
-8.2
-14.0
-2.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
7370
5461
348
1553
8
7412
5433
383
1587
9
7301
5410
431
1451
10
-1.1
-1.5
0.0
4.6
-2.9
-0.4
-1.5
0.0
4.0
-11.9
0.1
-0.8
-0.1
3.9
5.5
-0.4
-0.3
1.0
-1.0
2.2
621
559
427
385
0.4
-2.8
-3.1
-2.6
288
292
298
307
-1.3
0.5
0.3
0.3
14064
14207
14519
15034
15502
0.5
-0.8
-0.2
0.5
2307
792
1515
4065
2699
4956
2310
789
1521
4135
2719
4901
2356
812
1544
4222
2735
4895
2417
839
1578
4387
2768
4948
2565
895
1670
4603
2806
5060
2691
958
1733
4802
2817
5193
-1.8
-3.3
-1.0
1.6
0.8
0.7
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
-1.5
-1.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.8
0.2
0.3
72
5848
1521
2488
2677
1727
3
66
5597
1524
2517
2619
1699
4
62
5461
1531
2603
2693
1706
8
53
5374
1604
2776
2676
1712
12
41
5393
1637
2981
2722
1726
18
39
5539
1656
3262
2736
1778
25
38
5575
1743
3483
2789
1845
30
-7.3
-0.4
0.7
-0.1
2.3
6.8
0.0
-6.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.0
-0.6
3.2
75.6
-1.5
-0.7
0.1
0.5
0.1
-0.1
11.5
-2.4
0.1
0.6
1.5
0.2
0.4
7.1
4006
5042
5487
5547
5730
6084
6285
6963
8.4
3.0
1.0
1.1
55.0
23.0
32.1
41.6
16.3
2.1
3.1
2.5
2.3
15.3
1.2
12.2
47.8
17.4
30.4
34.4
10.9
1.7
3.1
2.2
2.2
14.3
1.3
12.1
44.0
14.5
29.5
30.6
8.2
1.5
2.8
2.2
2.2
13.8
1.3
12.1
42.1
13.3
28.7
29.1
7.3
1.2
2.6
2.1
2.2
13.6
1.0
11.9
41.4
13.1
28.3
28.7
7.1
1.2
2.6
2.1
2.2
13.5
1.0
11.7
40.9
12.8
28.1
28.3
6.8
1.0
2.6
2.1
2.2
13.6
1.0
11.6
41.0
12.5
28.5
29.0
7.3
0.7
2.9
2.1
2.2
13.8
0.4
11.6
40.4
11.8
28.6
28.5
6.5
0.6
3.0
2.1
2.2
14.0
0.3
11.6
-1.2
-0.9
-1.5
-0.4
-3.1
-2.0
-0.8
0.8
-6.7
-1.3
0
-2.7
-4.6
-1.3
-3.4
-6.4
-1.9
-2.5
-3.7
-2.0
-0.8
0.1
-0.4
0
-1.3
-2.6
-0.6
-1.6
-3.8
-3.3
-1.4
-0.4
0.0
-0.5
-2.0
-0.2
0
-0.2
-0.6
0.0
-0.1
-0.6
-3.8
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
-5.9
-0.1
0
78.30
67.90
62.50
59.80
58.80
58.20
58.30
57.50
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.7
0.8
-25.2 -100.0
-2.5
2.4
5.6
-0.1
-1.6
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
102
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Denmark: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
5.330
222.7
88.9
2.70
-35.3
5.411
237.0
83.4
2.53
-50.9
5.535
235.6
82.0
2.52
-18.2
5.629
252.8
74.6
2.21
-24.4
5.720
270.4
65.1
1.95
-8.7
5.811
292.4
58.5
1.79
2.8
5.893
314.9
54.8
1.69
19.7
5.954
338.1
51.0
1.66
24.4
5.992
364.1
48.2
1.62
33.7
6.017
395.4
45.6
1.61
57.8
6.038
430.5
42.8
1.54
64.9
0.4
0.6
-0.8
-0.7
0.3
1.4
-2.3
-2.5
0.3
1.5
-1.7
-1.4
0.1
1.6
-1.2
-0.4
16.5
7.4
22.7
9.6
25.3
10.7
27.4
10.8
30.7
11.4
32.5
11.1
34.0
10.8
35.7
10.6
37.9
10.4
40.4
10.2
43.5
10.1
4.4
2.0
1.0
1.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.4
40.1
101.9
95.9
95.4
49.3
59.2
91.8
101.7
97.9
49.2
68.4
83.7
88.4
85.4
47.1
67.0
80.3
75.4
73.9
41.8
63.8
74.4
66.9
68.8
37.8
60.9
70.5
62.7
64.0
35.2
58.1
67.2
59.1
59.7
33.8
55.6
64.8
56.4
55.8
32.8
53.9
64.5
53.8
51.9
32.2
52.9
63.3
50.8
47.6
31.9
51.9
-0.9
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
5.5
-1.3
-2.9
-2.8
-1.6
-0.7
-1.3
-1.8
-1.4
-1.7
-0.9
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-0.5
-0.6
0.36
1.81
1.85
0.94
1.05
2.98
0.28
1.76
1.79
0.80
0.95
2.99
0.26
1.63
1.62
0.66
0.90
3.00
0.21
1.54
1.33
0.54
0.81
2.88
0.15
1.52
1.30
0.52
0.84
2.79
0.11
1.49
1.20
0.54
0.83
2.78
0.10
1.46
1.14
0.51
0.82
2.77
0.09
1.44
1.11
0.50
0.82
2.76
0.09
1.41
1.07
0.48
0.80
2.75
0.09
1.40
1.14
0.45
0.79
2.73
0.08
1.38
1.10
0.44
0.80
2.70
-2.9
-1.0
-1.3
-3.6
-1.6
0.1
-5.6
-0.7
-2.2
-2.2
-0.7
-0.7
-4.0
-0.4
-1.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-1.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.8
-0.1
-0.1
10.6
0.1
16.1
0.2
22.1
0.3
24.6
3.0
32.8
10.2
36.6
11.1
37.0
11.9
37.8
12.6
39.4
13.2
39.4
14.5
42.4
16.4
36053
0
16673
4439
8774
1895
30
4241
1
0
0
12444
0
2428
10
2417
1
0
10016
5578
0
6173
2103
1164
577
0
0
36246
0
15463
1375
8780
3989
23
6614
2
0
0
12992
0
3142
11
3128
3
0
9850
4738
0
5166
2683
1107
893
0
0
38785
0
16976
750
7908
5315
21
7809
6
0
0
13596
0
3765
9
3749
7
0
9831
4839
0
4967
2709
1134
1021
0
0
36243
0
11928
202
8114
5080
29
10617
272
0
0
14049
0
4784
12
4489
282
0
9265
4255
0
4423
2715
1105
1022
0
0
33667
0
5474
201
6769
6084
23
14770
347
0
0
13983
0
6333
12
5960
360
0
7650
3844
0
3308
2693
505
1144
0
0
33686
0
2603
197
6964
5829
22
17488
584
0
0
13772
0
7450
12
6858
579
0
6322
3455
0
2050
2806
321
1144
0
0
34521
0
276
186
8824
4908
23
19521
784
0
0
14229
0
8195
12
7420
762
0
6034
2974
0
1231
3360
299
1146
0
0
36759
0
169
201
9358
5833
29
20386
784
0
0
13580
0
8369
12
7594
763
0
5211
3269
0
91
3522
292
1307
0
0
39342
0
0
247
8950
6404
29
22927
785
0
0
14988
0
9230
12
8454
763
0
5757
3378
0
0
4080
245
1432
0
0
43020
0
0
353
10909
6803
29
24139
787
0
0
16394
0
9725
12
8947
766
0
6669
4280
0
0
4840
207
1621
0
0
46114
0
0
353
8889
8714
22
27347
788
0
0
18453
0
10989
12
10210
767
0
7464
4686
0
0
5120
543
1802
0
0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
31.6
30.2
30.9
28.2
26.6
27.1
27.1
30.2
29.4
29.4
27.9
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
34.9
52.6
0.0
17.1
0.0
17.1
35.7
52.1
0.0
29.3
0.0
29.3
35.0
49.2
0.0
33.9
0.0
33.9
37.6
61.6
0.0
44.1
0.0
44.1
32.7
50.7
0.0
63.0
0.0
63.0
31.8
45.0
0.0
71.0
0.0
71.0
29.9
38.7
0.0
73.1
0.0
73.1
31.3
41.4
0.0
73.5
0.0
73.5
30.8
39.5
0.0
76.6
0.0
76.6
33.7
40.8
0.0
73.8
0.0
73.8
32.4
38.1
0.0
80.0
0.0
80.0
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
73.5
5.5
51.2
5.5
7.9
3.3
75.0
6.0
50.6
6.1
9.3
3.0
77.7
6.3
51.6
6.6
10.2
2.9
81.0
6.6
52.8
6.9
11.7
3.0
84.6
6.8
53.9
7.3
13.4
3.1
88.8
7.1
55.3
7.7
15.5
3.2
93.2
7.4
56.4
8.2
17.9
3.3
97.1
7.7
57.6
8.6
19.7
3.4
101.2
8.0
58.8
9.1
21.7
3.6
105.3
8.3
60.1
9.6
23.5
3.7
109.5
8.6
61.4
10.1
25.5
3.9
0.6
1.4
0.1
1.8
2.6
-1.3
0.9
0.7
0.4
1.0
2.8
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.5
1.1
2.9
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.4
1.1
1.8
0.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
27.8
24.0
2.0
1.7
27.5
23.3
2.0
2.2
19.7
15.0
2.2
2.4
22.1
17.1
2.4
2.5
24.8
19.4
2.6
2.7
26.2
20.6
2.9
2.8
27.8
21.7
3.1
3.0
29.0
22.6
3.3
3.1
30.2
23.5
3.6
3.2
31.5
24.5
3.7
3.2
32.9
25.6
3.9
3.3
-3.4
-4.6
1.0
3.5
2.3
2.6
1.7
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.8
1.1
0.8
0.8
1.1
0.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
4821
106
2562
1031
103
856
1630
5327
114
2422
1538
107
955
1910
5172
126
2648
1254
113
875
1550
5295
129
2536
1386
114
968
1610
5114
131
2183
1488
116
1030
1660
4955
132
1956
1503
118
1076
1700
4900
133
1845
1519
121
1107
1740
4894
135
1810
1517
122
1132
1780
4947
137
1786
1536
120
1187
1810
5059
140
1788
1578
117
1252
1840
5192
143
1802
1618
116
1325
1880
0.7
1.7
0.3
2.0
0.9
0.2
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.4
-1.9
1.7
0.2
1.6
0.7
0.0
-0.4
0.1
-1.7
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.9
0.4
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
0.7
-1.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
-10.7
-16.3
-12.3
-1.0
-1.5
10.9
1.4
-3.5
0.7
6.3
6.6
17.5
50.0
-19.3 -100.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.3
0.0
0.0
4.5
5.3
-1.0
3.3
4.5
4.7
21.5
48.3
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-2.5
-1.4
-2.3
0.0
0.0
-2.1
-4.0
2.6
-0.1
-0.3
-7.8
5.9
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.5
0.0
0.0
-25.8 -100.0
-0.8
3.3
2.7
0.0
-2.1
2.9
0.0
-0.1
2.8
1.7
8.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.3
0.0
0.0
2.6
1.5
0.0
0.0
2.2
1.6
7.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.3
1.1
-2.5
2.3
0.0
0.0
-9.4 -100.0
2.2
2.1
-5.1
3.0
0.0
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
103
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Estonia: Reference scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
3435
2669
249
5
0
512
0
512
0
0
0
4250
3176
375
7
0
692
2
686
5
0
0
5467
3943
532
5
0
988
2
961
24
0
0
6764
4432
1089
0
0
1243
5
1165
70
3
0
8842
5259
2080
0
0
1503
7
1394
98
4
0
8682
5022
2120
0
0
1540
8
1350
177
6
0
8438
4687
2174
0
0
1577
10
1335
225
7
0
8269
4466
2228
0
0
1575
11
1292
263
9
0
8202
4281
2276
0
0
1645
12
1303
321
10
0
8110
4141
2282
0
0
1687
12
1250
414
12
0
7960
4054
2275
0
0
1631
12
1141
466
12
0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
1619
270
777
-125
902
657
-80
1435
27
859
-225
1085
792
-138
813
-22
710
-394
1104
558
-280
354
-6
237
-774
1011
725
-330
-833
-2
-763
-1415
653
515
-149
-749
4
-765
-1378
613
477
-85
-615
5
-734
-1348
614
412
35
-449
5
-690
-1315
625
398
113
-320
9
-625
-1275
650
376
135
-238
10
-522
-1209
687
230
174
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
4970
2968
908
662
0
-80
513
5569
3194
1126
800
0
-138
589
6106
3917
1060
563
0
-280
847
6881
4426
1090
723
0
-330
971
7767
5257
1081
509
0
-149
1069
7688
5026
1120
466
0
-85
1161
7578
4692
1208
398
0
35
1245
7570
4470
1309
378
0
113
1300
7627
4290
1424
348
0
135
1430
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
59.7
18.3
13.3
0.0
10.3
57.3
20.2
14.4
0.0
10.6
64.2
17.4
9.2
0.0
13.9
64.3
15.8
10.5
0.0
14.1
67.7
13.9
6.6
0.0
13.8
65.4
14.6
6.1
0.0
15.1
61.9
15.9
5.2
0.0
16.4
59.0
17.3
5.0
0.0
17.2
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
8507
2183
10203
2194
12962
2292
15162
2690
13346
2367
12791
2277
11658
2164
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
2442
2199
16
226
2
0
0
2600
2353
10
227
10
0
0
3115
2715
11
209
179
0
0
3152
2668
32
289
162
0
0
2362
1978
4
217
163
0
0
2042
1673
0
209
160
0
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
968
0
0
455
514
1296
0
0
489
807
1564
0
0
446
1117
2106
0
28
429
1649
3567
0
74
356
3137
Energy Branch Consumption
165
193
201
231
Non-Energy Uses
180
182
37
39
2423
2867
2905
571
245
326
929
345
578
719
273
446
890
494
765
118
763
177
429
511
425
0
119
971
263
519
547
447
0
Annual % Change
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
4.8
4.9
4.0
2.9
7.9
14.6
-1.7 -100.0
0.0
0.0
6.8
4.3
18.4
11.7
6.5
3.8
0.0
15.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-1.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
3.7
-0.4
8.6
5.3
0.5
-0.3
-0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.9
-0.8
3.7
2.8
0.8
-82
8
-407
-1138
731
148
189
-6.7
0.0
-0.9
12.2
2.0
-1.6
13.4
0.0
-23.1
0.0
13.6
-5.1
-0.8
-6.1
-3.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-2.2
0.0
-9.6
2.3
-2.9
-0.8
0.9
-5.0
8.8
7609
4151
1531
195
0
174
1558
7609
4062
1640
107
0
189
1610
2.1
2.8
1.6
-1.6
0.0
13.4
5.1
2.4
3.0
0.2
-1.0
0.0
-6.1
2.4
-0.2
-1.1
1.1
-2.4
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
-0.7
1.5
-6.3
0.0
8.8
1.3
56.3
18.7
4.6
0.0
18.7
54.6
20.1
2.6
0.0
20.5
53.4
21.6
1.4
0.0
21.2
11007
2095
10917
2023
11022
2049
11482
2130
4.3
0.5
0.3
0.3
-1.3
-0.9
-0.1
-0.1
1666
1255
0
222
189
0
0
1461
942
0
287
232
0
0
1325
689
0
372
265
0
0
1167
533
0
337
297
0
0
1089
441
0
359
289
0
0
2.5
2.1
-3.0
-0.8
55.4
0.0
0.0
-2.7
-3.1
-10.7
0.4
-0.9
0.0
0.0
-3.4
-4.4
-35.6
0.2
1.5
0.0
0.0
-2.1
-5.1
0.0
2.4
2.1
0.0
0.0
3647
0
70
370
3206
3734
0
69
364
3301
3811
0
65
347
3398
3900
0
64
352
3484
3931
0
63
361
3507
3930
0
64
356
3511
4.9
0.0
0.0
-0.2
8.1
8.6
0.0
0.0
-2.2
10.9
0.5
0.0
-0.7
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.0
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
226
208
187
171
159
149
144
2.0
1.2
-1.9
-1.3
43
45
45
48
49
50
51
-14.6
1.6
0.4
0.6
3091
3151
3198
3241
3273
3317
3358
3393
1.8
0.8
0.3
0.2
570
231
339
1028
522
786
665
285
380
1044
561
822
726
329
396
1040
571
815
725
328
397
1078
593
801
740
333
408
1078
607
815
749
337
412
1081
618
825
767
341
426
1080
628
842
770
339
431
1097
645
846
782
336
446
1109
654
848
0.0
-0.6
0.4
1.0
4.2
3.1
2.4
3.6
1.6
0.1
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.2
83
945
207
593
532
546
0
85
950
218
686
552
599
0
116
884
228
717
544
661
1
118
863
245
743
553
674
2
108
874
246
778
554
677
5
111
885
252
806
557
655
6
106
898
251
829
560
666
7
102
900
246
875
579
650
7
100
895
252
924
556
661
6
-3.4
2.2
1.6
3.3
0.4
2.5
6.3
3.3
-0.7
1.0
1.9
0.2
1.9
89.1
-0.7
-0.1
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.2
14.5
-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.0
-0.1
1.5
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
489
548
775
925
929
1010
1119
1160
1254
1390
1457
4.7
1.8
1.9
1.3
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
16.9
19.3
13.9
5.4
16.7
12.9
0.1
0.8
0.2
0.4
2.4
0.4
2.2
19.2
14.0
5.3
16.7
12.9
0.1
0.8
0.2
0.4
2.4
0.4
2.1
16.0
10.9
5.1
13.3
9.5
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.5
2.2
0.6
2.1
14.8
9.7
5.1
12.0
8.2
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.5
2.2
0.6
2.2
12.9
7.8
5.1
10.2
6.4
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.5
2.2
0.5
2.1
11.7
6.6
5.1
9.1
5.2
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.5
2.2
0.5
2.2
10.8
5.6
5.1
8.1
4.3
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.5
2.3
0.5
2.2
10.0
4.9
5.1
7.3
3.5
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.6
2.3
0.5
2.2
9.6
4.5
5.1
7.0
3.1
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.6
2.2
0.4
2.2
1.3
14.2
10.9
0.1
0.9
0.3
0.3
1.7
0.7
2.1
18.6
13.0
5.6
15.7
11.5
0.2
1.0
0.2
0.5
2.3
0.7
2.2
1.6
1.7
-0.5
-1.7
-4.2
2.2
3.3
-6.0
0.8
0
-1.9
-2.4
-0.5
-2.2
-3.0
1.3
1.6
-2.7
1.4
-0.6
4.6
-0.6
0
-2.1
-3.3
0.0
-2.6
-3.8
-1.0
-0.5
-0.4
1.0
-0.1
-1.4
0.2
0
-1.5
-2.7
0.0
-1.9
-3.5
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.1
-0.3
0.0
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
41.30
45.50
47.10
46.90
39.00
36.10
31.40
28.60
26.30
24.30
23.40
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
104
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Estonia: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
1.372
10.1
490.7
2.86
31.9
1.348
14.3
389.2
2.82
25.2
1.340
14.3
426.8
2.73
12.9
1.335
17.3
396.8
2.43
5.0
1.324
19.4
399.6
1.71
-10.4
1.304
21.5
357.0
1.56
-9.4
1.280
24.1
314.4
1.35
-7.9
1.259
26.4
286.4
1.20
-5.7
1.243
28.8
265.2
1.07
-4.1
1.229
30.7
247.6
0.96
-3.0
1.213
32.2
236.1
0.92
-1.0
-0.2
3.5
-1.4
-0.5
-0.1
3.1
-0.7
-4.6
-0.3
2.2
-2.4
-2.4
-0.3
1.5
-1.4
-1.9
1.4
13.9
2.2
15.3
2.9
20.3
3.6
20.8
4.3
21.9
4.7
21.9
5.1
21.2
5.5
20.8
5.9
20.6
6.3
20.6
6.6
20.6
7.5
3.9
1.8
1.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
40.4
12.8
84.7
63.3
104.6
32.5
18.0
70.0
76.0
107.8
33.9
26.1
65.3
62.4
94.5
32.9
25.0
63.3
54.7
85.9
29.5
23.8
59.2
50.4
79.7
26.1
22.3
55.9
44.2
72.0
24.3
21.1
53.3
39.8
66.3
23.0
20.3
51.1
35.9
61.5
22.2
19.4
48.8
33.6
58.8
21.9
18.5
48.3
32.0
56.5
21.5
17.7
-3.5
-2.7
0.8
-1.7
7.4
-1.0
-3.2
-2.2
-1.4
-0.9
-1.2
-2.1
-1.7
-1.9
-1.2
-0.7
-1.6
-1.2
-0.6
-0.9
0.68
1.33
1.58
0.32
0.92
2.95
0.65
1.42
1.44
0.27
1.04
2.98
0.64
1.27
1.33
0.19
0.75
3.00
0.57
1.21
1.24
0.15
0.70
2.90
0.46
1.18
1.23
0.14
0.79
2.72
0.40
1.16
1.21
0.13
0.83
2.72
0.34
1.14
1.15
0.13
0.82
2.70
0.28
1.15
1.15
0.13
0.85
2.70
0.23
1.14
1.08
0.13
0.86
2.69
0.18
1.12
1.03
0.13
0.86
2.67
0.17
1.10
1.01
0.13
0.86
2.65
-0.6
-0.4
-1.7
-5.2
-2.0
0.2
-3.3
-0.8
-0.8
-2.8
0.5
-1.0
-3.1
-0.3
-0.7
-0.7
0.4
-0.1
-3.5
-0.2
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
-0.1
17.5
0.0
16.9
0.0
23.6
0.1
27.2
2.0
27.1
10.2
29.1
10.4
31.9
10.9
32.8
11.1
35.1
11.5
38.3
12.3
39.8
12.9
8509
0
7678
56
757
13
5
0
0
0
0
2736
0
2
2
0
0
0
2734
452
0
2476
191
41
26
0
0
10205
0
9302
32
760
35
22
54
0
0
0
2780
0
37
5
32
0
0
2743
446
0
2469
196
41
37
0
0
12964
0
11167
41
712
740
27
277
0
0
0
2739
0
114
6
108
0
0
2625
402
0
2305
197
42
81
0
0
15162
0
12228
133
1216
705
62
817
0
0
0
3187
0
371
17
354
0
0
2816
428
0
2153
476
84
104
0
0
13346
0
9881
18
1519
707
82
1140
0
0
0
2853
0
516
21
495
0
0
2337
423
0
1376
723
134
104
0
0
12791
0
8478
0
1475
693
89
2056
0
0
0
2968
0
828
22
807
0
0
2140
430
0
1376
566
94
104
0
0
11658
0
6449
0
1576
902
118
2613
0
0
0
3275
0
1084
28
1056
0
0
2191
443
0
1369
617
93
112
0
0
11007
0
4664
0
2066
1094
128
3056
0
0
0
3583
0
1241
31
1209
0
0
2343
497
0
1369
758
93
123
0
0
10917
0
3171
0
2652
1225
136
3733
0
0
0
3841
0
1479
33
1446
0
0
2362
501
0
1369
771
93
129
0
0
11022
0
2278
0
2400
1395
138
4810
0
0
0
4274
0
1931
34
1896
0
0
2343
573
0
1369
682
93
199
0
0
11482
0
1885
0
2570
1474
140
5413
0
0
0
4843
0
2160
34
2125
0
0
2683
644
0
1369
893
93
328
0
0
4.3
0.0
3.8
-3.1
-0.6
49.8
18.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
49.8
11.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-1.2
0.0
-0.7
0.3
0.3
11.9
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
-1.2
-8.2
7.9
-0.5
11.7
15.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
16.3
13.6
16.4
0.0
0.0
-1.2
0.5
0.0
-5.0
13.9
12.1
2.5
0.0
0.0
-1.3
0.0
-4.2
-35.6
0.4
2.5
3.7
8.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.0
7.7
2.6
7.9
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.5
0.0
-0.1
-1.6
-3.6
0.7
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-6.0
0.0
2.5
2.5
0.9
3.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
3.5
1.1
3.6
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
0.0
5.5
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
31.7
37.4
48.9
48.9
48.8
45.4
37.9
33.0
30.9
28.3
26.2
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
29.9
11.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
33.5
10.2
0.0
1.1
0.0
1.1
34.9
10.3
0.0
8.1
0.0
8.1
39.0
14.9
0.0
10.5
0.0
10.5
44.2
23.0
0.0
14.5
0.0
14.5
44.8
25.0
0.0
22.2
0.0
22.2
46.1
28.5
0.0
31.2
0.0
31.2
46.1
34.1
0.0
38.9
0.0
38.9
45.7
34.8
0.0
46.7
0.0
46.7
44.7
38.2
0.0
57.6
0.0
57.6
46.8
36.4
0.0
61.2
0.0
61.2
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
10.3
2.6
6.8
0.4
0.2
0.4
14.2
2.7
10.0
0.3
0.7
0.4
13.6
2.1
10.3
0.3
0.6
0.3
14.5
2.2
10.9
0.4
0.7
0.4
15.4
2.3
11.4
0.4
0.8
0.4
16.4
2.4
12.1
0.5
1.0
0.4
17.6
2.5
12.8
0.5
1.3
0.4
18.5
2.6
13.4
0.5
1.5
0.5
19.4
2.7
13.9
0.6
1.7
0.5
19.9
2.7
14.1
0.6
2.0
0.5
20.4
2.8
14.2
0.7
2.3
0.5
2.8
-2.4
4.3
-1.3
12.2
-0.9
1.3
1.2
1.1
2.3
4.1
1.2
1.3
0.8
1.1
2.3
4.3
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.5
1.4
2.9
0.9
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
12.1
3.9
8.1
0.0
16.5
5.8
10.6
0.0
12.3
5.6
6.6
0.0
13.5
6.0
7.5
0.0
14.9
6.4
8.5
0.0
16.4
6.8
9.6
0.0
18.1
7.3
10.8
0.0
19.4
7.8
11.5
0.0
20.7
8.4
12.4
0.0
21.7
8.7
12.9
0.0
22.6
9.1
13.5
0.0
0.2
3.6
-2.0
-3.0
2.0
1.3
2.5
0.8
2.0
1.4
2.3
1.8
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
572
22
365
112
45
21
70
757
22
386
255
44
42
80
781
17
397
270
51
38
80
817
18
406
282
58
44
90
809
19
374
293
64
50
90
795
19
340
300
69
57
90
808
19
329
311
73
65
100
818
20
320
321
74
72
100
833
20
318
333
72
80
110
837
20
315
339
65
88
110
839
20
309
347
57
96
110
3.2
-2.5
0.8
9.2
1.3
6.3
1.3
0.0
0.3
1.2
-0.6
0.8
2.3
2.7
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
-1.3
0.6
1.3
2.7
0.7
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.5
-1.3
2.0
0.5
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
105
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Finland: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
15043
1088
343
0
5799
7814
1261
6546
7
1
0
16886
2136
481
0
6003
8267
1185
7066
15
1
0
17485
1806
622
0
5881
9175
1111
8038
25
1
0
22359
2250
339
0
9225
10546
1221
9224
87
14
0
22848
1851
339
0
9507
11151
1173
9610
342
26
0
24479
1913
339
0
11582
10644
1185
8942
478
39
0
26678
1548
339
0
14442
10348
1218
8501
577
52
0
26748
1044
339
0
14704
10660
1230
8783
594
54
0
26935
949
339
0
13725
11922
1286
9633
945
58
0
28107
901
339
0
14159
12708
1324
10223
1103
58
0
29125
716
339
0
14453
13617
1365
10883
1311
58
0
1.5
5.2
6.1
0.0
0.1
1.6
-1.3
2.1
14.2
9.8
0.0
2.7
0.2
-5.9
0.0
4.9
2.0
0.5
1.8
29.8
34.7
0.0
1.6
-1.8
0.0
0.0
4.3
-0.7
0.4
-1.2
5.4
7.2
0.4
0.4
-3.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.6
1.2
4.2
0.6
1.4
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
18570
3532
10594
12159
-1565
3422
1021
19278
3338
10956
11068
-112
3598
1463
17900
3976
9151
11522
-2370
3837
903
18356
3844
9131
11487
-2356
4136
782
17059
3283
8850
11007
-2158
3519
806
16159
3039
8634
10636
-2002
3732
-92
15338
3052
8343
10283
-1940
3719
-639
15251
3113
8174
10050
-1876
3716
-662
14666
2054
8013
9809
-1796
4344
-716
14028
1623
7987
9677
-1690
4348
-939
13750
1024
7930
9526
-1596
4762
-1014
-0.4
1.2
-1.5
-0.5
4.2
1.2
-1.2
-0.5
-1.9
-0.3
-0.5
-0.9
-0.9
-1.1
-1.1
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-1.1
0.6
0.0
-0.5
-5.3
-0.3
-0.4
-1.0
1.2
2.3
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
32917
5124
9736
3422
5799
1021
7814
35057
4934
10870
3598
6003
1463
8189
36978
6878
10271
3837
5881
903
9208
40500
6093
9256
4135
9225
782
11009
39694
5134
8979
3515
9507
806
11753
40429
4952
8770
3725
11582
-92
11491
41811
4601
8486
3712
14442
-639
11209
41790
4157
8315
3705
14704
-662
11571
41393
3003
8159
4330
13725
-716
12892
41915
2524
8135
4319
14159
-939
13717
42652
1740
8080
4729
14453
-1014
14665
1.2
3.0
0.5
1.2
0.1
-1.2
1.7
0.7
-2.9
-1.3
-0.9
4.9
-1.1
2.5
0.5
-1.1
-0.6
0.5
4.3
0.0
-0.5
0.1
-4.7
-0.2
1.2
0.0
2.3
1.4
15.6
29.6
10.4
17.6
23.7
14.1
31.0
10.3
17.1
23.4
18.6
27.8
10.4
15.9
24.9
15.0
22.9
10.2
22.8
27.2
12.9
22.6
8.9
23.9
29.6
12.2
21.7
9.2
28.6
28.4
11.0
20.3
8.9
34.5
26.8
9.9
19.9
8.9
35.2
27.7
7.3
19.7
10.5
33.2
31.1
6.0
19.4
10.3
33.8
32.7
4.1
18.9
11.1
33.9
34.4
69921
5390
70525
5801
80577
6398
80001
6169
80083
6020
91554
6947
100382
7505
104941
8214
110154
8764
117468
9470
123273
9908
1.4
1.7
-0.1
-0.6
2.3
2.2
1.0
1.4
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
7136
3177
122
2093
1744
0
0
7744
2995
97
2349
2302
0
0
10211
5101
99
2264
2747
0
0
10213
4416
10
2478
3309
0
0
9232
3393
7
2108
3725
0
0
9130
3256
4
2391
3478
0
0
8517
2928
4
2447
3138
0
0
9121
2755
14
2316
4036
0
0
9500
1661
11
2940
4887
0
0
9563
1201
10
2927
5426
0
0
9401
414
21
3221
5744
0
0
3.6
4.8
-2.1
0.8
4.6
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-4.0
-23.4
-0.7
3.1
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-1.5
-4.6
1.5
-1.7
0.0
0.0
0.5
-9.3
8.3
1.4
3.1
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
21406
13249
0
1053
7103
21839
13247
0
1266
7326
23446
14629
142
1605
7069
26916
14624
222
1698
10372
26937
14149
380
1653
10756
28625
13801
354
1663
12807
30988
13398
333
1639
15618
30177
13140
322
1188
15527
28866
12878
314
1155
14518
29426
12754
308
1427
14936
30035
12600
320
1893
15222
0.9
1.0
0.0
4.3
0.0
1.4
-0.3
10.3
0.3
4.3
1.4
-0.5
-1.3
-0.1
3.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.7
-0.1
Energy Branch Consumption
1112
1109
1477
1435
1383
1417
1411
1409
1414
1433
1439
2.9
-0.7
0.2
0.1
Non-Energy Uses
1113
1328
1579
1599
1697
1720
1724
1727
1727
1727
1740
3.6
0.7
0.2
0.0
24629
25487
26484
26276
25879
25363
25059
25047
25275
25504
25980
0.7
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
12329
10317
2012
4547
3400
4353
11997
9873
2124
5049
3705
4735
11604
9472
2132
5787
4125
4969
11810
9621
2189
5482
4018
4965
11982
9789
2193
5116
3934
4847
11846
9611
2236
4872
3981
4663
11876
9610
2266
4789
3897
4497
11760
9435
2325
4829
3997
4460
11791
9357
2434
4945
4036
4503
11773
9244
2528
5091
4118
4523
12029
9350
2680
5227
4155
4568
-0.6
-0.9
0.6
2.4
2.0
1.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-1.2
-0.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
0.3
-0.7
-0.1
-0.7
0.1
-0.1
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.1
1108
7976
1204
6507
3335
4499
0
943
8295
1077
6942
3971
4259
0
878
7918
1009
7178
4663
4838
0
820
6974
1197
7027
4891
5366
1
869
6637
1028
7072
4805
5464
3
875
6459
959
7083
4752
5229
6
905
6191
904
7250
4659
5143
7
905
6098
845
7558
4701
4930
8
894
5994
846
7905
4674
4953
10
870
5969
842
8250
4755
4806
12
858
5901
886
8635
4873
4812
14
-2.3
-0.1
-1.8
1.0
3.4
0.7
6.7
-0.1
-1.8
0.2
-0.1
0.3
1.2
0.0
0.4
-0.7
-1.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.6
9.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.9
0.2
-0.3
3.0
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
7253
7497
8794
9331
10388
10244
9922
10316
11528
12230
13108
1.9
1.7
-0.5
1.4
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
72.1
78.7
46.3
32.4
65.6
31.7
2.6
11.4
1.9
3.6
14.4
2.2
10.9
71.6
42.4
29.2
59.2
27.6
2.5
10.8
1.3
2.9
14.1
2.4
9.9
65.4
37.4
28.0
52.8
22.5
2.4
10.6
1.2
2.8
13.3
2.6
9.9
64.6
37.5
27.1
51.9
22.4
2.4
10.4
1.2
2.8
12.8
2.7
9.9
61.5
35.4
26.1
49.4
21.1
2.3
9.8
1.2
2.8
12.3
2.4
9.8
57.9
32.3
25.6
46.0
18.5
2.1
9.4
1.1
2.7
12.2
2.2
9.6
53.9
28.9
25.0
42.3
15.2
2.1
9.2
1.1
2.4
12.3
2.2
9.5
51.8
27.0
24.8
40.3
13.4
2.1
9.1
1.1
2.3
12.3
2.1
9.4
49.4
24.7
24.6
37.8
11.1
2.0
9.2
1.0
2.2
12.4
2.1
9.4
0.9
58.2
22.4
2.3
14.3
2.4
3.9
12.9
1.5
12.4
71.9
38.8
33.1
58.3
22.9
2.2
13.0
2.3
3.8
14.1
1.6
12.0
1.2
3.5
1.3
-2.2
-2.2
-0.8
1.1
3.9
-1.3
0
-1.8
-2.1
-1.5
-2.1
-3.4
-0.5
-0.7
-4.5
-2.5
-0.8
1.9
-1.0
0
-0.6
-0.5
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
-0.3
0.0
-0.8
-1.0
-0.2
0
-1.1
-1.8
-0.3
-1.3
-3.2
-0.6
-0.3
-0.8
-1.2
0.0
-0.6
-0.2
0
101.00
100.70
110.30
100.30
91.60
90.40
86.20
81.10
75.60
72.60
69.20
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
106
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Finland: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
5.171
150.5
218.7
1.77
55.3
5.237
171.4
204.5
1.66
54.2
5.351
179.7
205.8
1.78
48.1
5.475
197.7
204.9
1.46
45.1
5.577
211.9
187.3
1.33
42.7
5.655
227.6
177.6
1.28
39.8
5.704
243.5
171.7
1.18
36.5
5.725
262.7
159.1
1.10
36.3
5.727
284.2
145.6
1.02
35.3
5.724
306.5
136.7
0.96
33.3
5.727
329.4
129.5
0.89
32.1
0.3
1.8
-0.6
0.0
0.4
1.7
-0.9
-2.8
0.2
1.4
-0.9
-1.2
0.0
1.5
-1.4
-1.4
17.4
11.5
21.4
12.5
27.8
15.5
32.5
16.5
36.4
17.2
39.1
17.2
41.7
17.1
44.2
16.8
46.9
16.5
49.3
16.1
51.2
15.6
4.8
2.7
1.4
1.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
38.0
28.5
81.0
94.2
99.8
37.8
32.1
79.4
98.0
104.6
39.2
32.6
72.5
84.4
92.6
37.5
30.5
70.0
73.4
84.1
34.3
29.3
64.6
64.8
79.0
31.3
27.7
61.3
59.3
71.9
28.7
26.0
57.4
55.0
67.9
27.3
25.0
54.7
51.6
62.7
26.7
24.3
52.3
48.7
58.8
26.1
23.6
50.7
46.0
54.8
25.7
23.0
-2.3
-0.2
0.4
0.3
1.4
-1.3
-2.8
-2.2
-1.3
-1.1
-1.3
-2.1
-1.5
-1.8
-1.2
-1.0
-1.3
-1.3
-0.5
-0.6
0.20
1.36
1.16
0.52
1.16
2.97
0.19
1.30
1.09
0.45
1.02
2.97
0.23
1.18
0.98
0.33
0.88
2.89
0.19
1.11
0.91
0.24
0.72
2.84
0.16
1.08
0.89
0.24
0.71
2.74
0.15
1.07
0.88
0.25
0.70
2.74
0.13
1.04
0.82
0.24
0.72
2.73
0.11
1.01
0.80
0.24
0.68
2.73
0.09
0.99
0.78
0.22
0.60
2.73
0.08
0.97
0.78
0.21
0.57
2.72
0.06
0.95
0.77
0.19
0.52
2.71
1.3
-1.4
-1.6
-4.5
-2.7
-0.3
-3.5
-0.9
-1.0
-3.3
-2.1
-0.5
-1.9
-0.4
-0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
-3.9
-0.4
-0.4
-1.2
-1.6
0.0
28.4
0.3
28.3
0.4
31.8
3.9
34.1
6.1
38.5
10.8
38.6
11.2
37.7
11.4
39.2
11.6
43.3
12.2
45.5
12.5
47.8
13.5
69968
22513
12452
587
10816
8860
14660
78
2
0
0
16417
2687
2883
2841
39
3
0
10846
8280
0
5041
2807
978
2021
0
0
70572
23305
10998
500
11921
9891
13784
170
3
0
0
16650
2690
3080
2994
82
4
0
10880
7745
0
4797
2771
907
2405
0
0
80667
22875
20827
484
11847
11413
12922
294
5
0
0
16817
2691
3280
3102
171
7
0
10847
8587
0
4379
2866
970
2632
0
0
80001
36692
7304
49
9547
11196
14199
1008
6
0
0
18612
4320
3763
3345
411
7
0
10529
8355
0
3972
2759
907
2890
0
0
80083
37782
4995
34
8084
11523
13640
3978
48
0
0
19970
4321
4949
3361
1538
50
0
10701
8321
0
3800
2538
777
3586
0
0
91554
46634
5174
22
9165
11168
13782
5561
48
0
0
20766
5349
5575
3372
2153
50
0
9842
7745
0
3014
2475
765
3588
0
0
100382
59443
4452
22
6043
9501
14157
6706
58
0
0
22245
6843
6057
3441
2556
60
0
9346
7425
0
3014
2427
616
3288
0
0
104941
61454
4066
71
5450
12633
14307
6902
58
0
0
23355
7095
6195
3499
2636
60
0
10066
8139
0
2833
2438
609
4186
0
0
110154
58155
2624
65
5726
17582
14952
10984
67
0
0
24667
6733
7731
3647
4015
70
0
10203
7596
0
1917
3008
425
4853
0
0
117468
61092
2010
55
5936
20081
15397
12830
67
0
0
26025
7096
8434
3718
4646
70
0
10496
7629
0
1379
3421
83
5613
0
0
123273
62393
857
126
5632
23081
15874
15243
67
0
0
28496
7247
9321
3796
5456
70
0
11928
7134
0
615
4808
17
6488
0
0
1.4
0.2
5.3
-1.9
0.9
2.6
-1.3
14.2
11.1
1.6
0.0
0.2
0.0
1.3
0.9
15.9
8.8
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
-1.4
0.2
-0.1
2.7
0.0
0.0
-0.1
5.1
-13.3
-23.4
-3.7
0.1
0.5
29.8
26.7
0.0
0.0
1.7
4.9
4.2
0.8
24.6
21.6
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
-1.4
-1.2
-2.2
3.1
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
46.8
46.5
52.4
46.9
43.9
48.0
49.2
48.8
48.5
49.0
47.0
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
39.4
36.4
0.0
65.9
32.2
33.7
37.0
38.9
0.0
66.8
33.0
33.8
37.5
36.2
0.0
58.9
28.4
30.5
23.7
26.7
0.0
78.9
45.9
33.0
22.9
27.1
0.0
83.6
47.2
36.4
24.0
26.4
0.0
84.3
50.9
33.4
20.2
19.3
0.0
89.5
59.2
30.3
21.0
20.9
0.0
90.9
58.6
32.3
23.5
23.4
0.0
92.4
52.8
39.6
25.3
23.8
0.0
93.2
52.0
41.2
27.2
23.9
0.0
94.6
50.6
44.0
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
80.0
7.7
56.6
3.9
7.7
4.2
87.0
7.5
62.8
4.0
8.8
3.8
89.9
7.5
65.7
4.5
8.5
3.7
93.8
7.8
67.8
4.8
9.7
3.8
97.8
8.0
69.7
5.1
11.1
3.9
101.3
8.2
70.8
5.4
12.9
4.0
104.9
8.3
71.7
5.8
15.1
4.1
108.1
8.4
72.9
6.0
16.7
4.1
111.4
8.6
73.9
6.3
18.5
4.2
114.0
8.6
74.7
6.5
20.0
4.3
116.7
8.7
75.4
6.6
21.6
4.3
1.2
-0.2
1.5
1.4
1.1
-1.2
0.8
0.6
0.6
1.4
2.7
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.3
1.1
3.1
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.7
1.8
0.3
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
45.5
32.0
10.1
3.5
44.4
31.9
9.7
2.8
43.9
29.5
9.8
4.6
46.9
31.2
10.8
4.9
50.1
33.0
11.9
5.2
53.3
34.9
12.8
5.6
56.6
36.8
13.9
5.9
59.3
38.4
14.7
6.2
62.2
40.0
15.7
6.5
64.6
41.4
16.5
6.8
67.1
42.7
17.4
7.0
-0.4
-0.8
-0.4
2.8
1.3
1.1
2.0
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.8
1.1
0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
4335
91
2270
1203
90
509
1720
4712
89
2460
1332
92
569
1700
4954
89
2584
1328
90
679
1830
4948
91
2496
1323
96
752
1890
4829
92
2277
1350
104
811
1950
4645
91
2021
1349
109
878
1980
4479
90
1847
1342
113
887
2000
4442
89
1774
1353
115
909
2030
4484
89
1740
1379
116
956
2050
4504
88
1721
1392
114
983
2060
4549
88
1713
1413
112
1016
2070
1.3
-0.2
1.3
1.0
0.0
2.9
0.6
0.0
-0.3
0.3
-1.3
0.2
1.5
1.8
0.6
0.0
-0.7
-0.3
-2.1
-0.1
0.8
0.9
0.3
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
0.3
0.0
0.7
0.2
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
2.3
1.0
4.6
0.2
-1.1
-7.9
-4.1
9.1
-2.9
-0.4
-1.9
4.5
0.4
0.6
5.4
4.2
1.8
0.8
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.2
4.7
0.3
2.0
2.2
0.2
0.5
5.2
3.9
1.9
0.8
0.0
0.0
-1.3
1.2
-1.1
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-2.3
-7.6
-0.4
3.5
-2.3
-16.5
-0.9
3.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
107
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
France: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
129847
2482
2013
1505
107093
16754
5773
10831
7
17
126
136034
383
1544
909
116474
16724
4449
12040
83
22
130
134775
162
1467
646
110539
21962
5332
15574
857
108
91
136586
87
0
0
111401
25098
5528
15966
1942
1292
370
132493
0
0
0
99077
33416
5567
19326
5697
2472
353
131307
0
0
0
94132
37174
5623
19291
8876
3038
347
133213
0
0
0
94071
39142
5831
18463
10769
3739
340
135099
0
0
0
93566
41533
6566
17785
11505
4240
1436
135408
0
0
0
91144
44264
6701
18358
12096
5270
1839
137900
0
0
0
92144
45756
6727
17931
13503
5579
2016
133396
0
0
0
87863
45533
6784
16491
14409
5639
2210
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
134424
13005
91607
85671
5936
35778
-5974
144391
13511
95403
85568
9835
40720
-5187
133605
12162
84371
65651
18720
39553
-2644
131778
9833
80073
63937
16137
43254
-4739
118838
6728
74138
60152
13986
38605
-5049
114567
5796
71662
58470
13192
36606
-4418
109307
4842
69954
57542
12411
33312
-3676
106427
3858
68203
56627
11576
32213
-2768
104731
3687
67296
56164
11132
30857
-2181
105862
5436
67015
56156
10859
30704
-2107
108113
6372
66867
56275
10592
31702
-1636
-0.1
-0.7
-0.8
-2.6
12.2
1.0
-7.8
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
257777
15048
89084
35766
107093
-5974
16761
276545
14303
93261
41025
116474
-5187
16669
268530
12046
83925
42540
110539
-2644
22124
265645
9920
77368
43240
111401
-4739
28456
248480
6728
71346
38546
99077
-5049
37832
242947
5796
68858
36485
94132
-4418
42095
239553
4842
67140
33159
94071
-3676
44018
238536
3858
65440
31987
93566
-2768
46454
237092
3687
64562
30545
91144
-2181
49336
240620
5436
64253
30323
92144
-2107
50571
238241
6372
64059
31241
87863
-1636
50341
5.8
34.6
13.9
41.5
6.5
5.2
33.7
14.8
42.1
6.0
4.5
31.3
15.8
41.2
8.2
3.7
29.1
16.3
41.9
10.7
2.7
28.7
15.5
39.9
15.2
2.4
28.3
15.0
38.7
17.3
2.0
28.0
13.8
39.3
18.4
1.6
27.4
13.4
39.2
19.5
1.6
27.2
12.9
38.4
20.8
2.3
26.7
12.6
38.3
21.0
2.7
26.9
13.1
36.9
21.1
535958
56172
571395
60388
564088
61728
591166
62283
583539
58064
605085
60378
631997
63638
649190
67116
671005
70584
711403
76942
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
13379
6559
1241
4034
1545
0
0
17097
6402
2185
6298
2212
0
0
16920
4717
1638
8178
2387
0
0
16487
3825
749
7883
3881
151
0
13937
1113
80
8070
4524
151
0
12851
727
127
6634
5211
151
0
10747
0
158
4938
5500
151
0
10524
0
139
3101
6033
1251
0
11262
0
109
2558
6934
1661
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
205489
91164
329
312
113684
211643
88602
400
271
122371
191882
74262
2420
261
114939
187680
68737
2826
456
115661
171550
64177
3596
828
102949
164609
62465
3674
949
97521
163373
61518
3828
941
97087
160582
60497
3879
970
95235
157311
59931
3871
829
92681
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
0.4
-0.2
-23.9 -100.0
-3.1 -100.0
-8.1 -100.0
0.3
-1.1
2.7
4.3
-0.8
0.4
3.7
2.2
62.6
20.9
20.3
36.8
-3.2
14.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
1.6
0.5
-0.5
6.6
4.2
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.8
0.8
-0.6
1.5
2.1
9.8
-1.2
-5.7
-1.3
-0.9
-2.9
-0.2
6.7
-0.8
-3.2
-0.6
-0.4
-1.2
-1.5
-3.1
-0.1
1.4
-0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.2
-4.0
0.4
-2.2
-0.6
1.7
0.3
-7.8
2.8
-0.8
-5.7
-1.6
-1.0
-1.1
6.7
5.5
-0.4
-3.2
-0.6
-1.5
-0.5
-3.1
1.5
0.0
1.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-4.0
0.7
724782
79391
0.5
0.9
0.3
-0.6
0.8
0.9
0.7
1.1
13091
1845
141
2135
7131
1839
0
13354
2119
198
1948
7041
2049
0
2.4
-3.2
2.8
7.3
4.4
0.0
0.0
-1.9
-2.6
-13.4 -100.0
-26.1
7.1
-0.1
-4.8
6.6
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
1.1
-4.5
1.2
13.9
0.0
158158
59873
4017
667
93601
155165
59966
4296
581
90322
-0.7
-2.0
22.1
-1.8
0.1
-1.1
-1.4
4.0
12.2
-1.1
-0.5
-0.4
0.6
1.3
-0.6
-0.3
-0.1
0.6
-2.4
-0.4
Energy Branch Consumption
10830
9975
10242
8311
7581
7321
7339
7109
7144
7452
7693
-0.6
-3.0
-0.3
0.2
Non-Energy Uses
16225
14528
11996
11920
12023
12194
12351
12346
12047
11958
11946
-3.0
0.0
0.3
-0.2
154489
162383
158771
158093
151406
150106
147937
147181
147692
149698
150949
0.3
-0.5
-0.2
0.1
37170
21437
15733
39680
26957
50682
36628
22084
14544
46584
28648
50522
31242
18407
12834
46298
30914
50317
32919
19741
13178
45651
28648
50875
33187
19567
13620
43207
26621
48392
32835
18499
14337
42618
27313
47340
33561
18667
14893
40703
26416
47258
32948
17932
15016
40077
26993
47163
33228
17628
15600
39468
27326
47671
34356
17998
16358
38854
28287
48200
35234
18026
17208
37552
29124
49038
-1.7
-1.5
-2.0
1.6
1.4
-0.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.7
-1.5
-0.4
0.1
-0.5
0.9
-0.6
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
0.7
-0.4
0.5
0.2
5775
72354
30907
33096
3236
9123
0
5219
73261
33744
36352
4163
9644
0
4496
66723
32478
38185
3654
13236
0
3899
62220
32561
39892
3520
16000
2
3600
57112
27963
39377
3312
20036
6
3287
54806
27091
41691
3392
19828
11
3264
53054
25267
44446
3198
18678
30
3100
51504
25417
46497
2998
17602
62
2983
51067
24526
48606
2918
17476
116
2916
50870
24679
51540
2767
16760
167
2883
50807
26101
52915
2649
15389
205
-2.5
-0.8
0.5
1.4
1.2
3.8
0.0
-2.2
-1.5
-1.5
0.3
-1.0
4.2
0.0
-1.0
-0.7
-1.0
1.2
-0.3
-0.7
17.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.9
-0.9
-1.0
10.1
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
15207
15818
21137
27317
36520
41288
42954
44027
46263
47289
47136
3.3
5.6
1.6
0.5
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
571.5
532.2
147.1
385.1
368.1
48.1
16.5
61.5
57.5
42.0
142.6
23.4
140.8
499.9
143.8
356.1
343.4
42.1
15.0
57.4
51.6
34.6
142.8
26.8
129.6
454.6
124.5
330.1
300.8
29.2
13.4
50.6
44.4
31.1
132.2
27.5
126.3
435.0
116.6
318.5
283.9
23.8
12.7
46.9
42.8
30.0
127.7
27.1
124.0
411.3
103.3
308.0
266.1
15.7
12.5
46.9
40.2
25.0
125.8
22.0
123.2
393.7
90.2
303.5
250.4
7.7
10.9
44.4
37.9
24.7
124.8
20.8
122.5
386.4
87.5
298.9
244.1
5.6
10.7
43.1
34.4
24.5
125.8
20.1
122.2
371.1
73.4
297.7
242.9
4.9
10.7
44.5
31.4
24.7
126.6
4.8
123.4
374.3
73.3
301.0
246.4
4.2
11.9
48.5
28.2
25.6
128.0
2.9
125.0
-0.7
389.0
46.8
19.9
76.4
53.5
43.5
149.0
28.7
153.8
572.5
174.8
397.8
400.2
53.7
16.3
73.7
64.9
42.6
149.0
27.9
144.4
-0.6
0.3
-1.8
-2.1
0.7
-0.3
-0.4
-2.0
-0.9
0
-1.6
-1.7
-1.5
-2.0
-4.9
-2.0
-1.9
-2.5
-3.0
-0.8
1.6
-1.1
0
-1.0
-1.8
-0.7
-1.2
-6.0
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
-2.1
-0.5
-2.2
-0.2
0
-0.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.4
-6.4
-0.2
0.2
-1.8
0.1
0.1
-9.6
0.1
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
100.70
100.90
93.80
88.10
80.10
76.70
72.50
69.40
68.10
65.40
65.90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
Source: PRIMES
108
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
France: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
58.858
1726.6
149.3
1.51
51.6
60.963
1869.7
147.9
1.45
51.7
62.791
1932.8
138.9
1.37
49.3
64.387
2081.3
127.6
1.29
49.1
65.808
2256.9
110.1
1.21
47.3
67.077
2483.4
97.8
1.17
46.6
68.223
2698.9
88.8
1.11
45.1
69.237
2918.6
81.7
1.05
44.1
70.056
3163.4
74.9
1.03
43.6
70.628
3425.8
70.2
1.01
43.4
71.029
3703.3
64.3
1.03
44.8
0.6
1.1
-0.7
-1.0
0.5
1.6
-2.3
-1.2
0.4
1.8
-2.1
-0.9
0.2
1.6
-1.6
-0.4
159.7
9.2
185.6
9.9
214.2
11.1
255.8
12.3
286.4
12.7
303.1
12.2
312.9
11.6
323.8
11.1
337.3
10.7
351.4
10.3
367.8
9.9
3.0
2.9
0.9
0.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
40.6
46.2
93.9
106.1
98.2
40.6
42.5
84.5
99.0
99.5
39.9
42.3
82.7
91.0
85.5
37.7
41.8
77.1
79.8
73.1
33.6
39.0
69.0
71.8
68.0
30.1
36.3
65.4
63.2
60.3
27.4
34.9
60.3
57.6
56.7
26.0
33.9
56.9
52.4
52.8
25.2
32.9
55.1
47.6
50.3
24.8
32.1
53.6
42.5
47.7
24.4
31.7
-1.7
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.9
-0.9
-2.1
-3.0
-1.7
-0.8
-1.6
-2.3
-1.9
-2.0
-1.1
-1.0
-2.0
-1.2
-0.6
-0.5
0.08
2.09
2.05
1.35
1.61
2.94
0.09
2.03
2.01
1.39
1.49
2.95
0.08
1.91
1.97
1.24
1.36
2.83
0.07
1.81
1.74
1.13
1.21
2.81
0.05
1.71
1.52
1.03
1.17
2.73
0.04
1.65
1.43
1.00
1.10
2.70
0.02
1.61
1.40
0.99
0.95
2.66
0.01
1.57
1.35
0.95
0.92
2.65
0.01
1.54
1.30
0.87
0.90
2.64
0.01
1.52
1.30
0.81
0.87
2.63
0.01
1.53
1.38
0.75
0.88
2.61
-0.3
-0.9
-0.4
-0.8
-1.7
-0.4
-5.1
-1.1
-2.5
-1.9
-1.5
-0.4
-6.7
-0.6
-0.9
-0.4
-2.1
-0.3
-7.0
-0.3
-0.1
-1.4
-0.4
-0.1
9.4
1.2
9.3
1.3
12.7
6.0
16.6
7.1
23.2
10.2
26.4
11.5
27.8
12.6
28.5
13.1
29.8
13.4
30.0
13.8
29.6
14.6
536054
415162
27004
7165
15370
3561
67137
77
5
573
0
107928
63235
20641
20568
66
7
0
24052
7013
0
9300
5102
8244
1406
0
0
571497
451529
27515
7925
26259
5016
51747
962
11
534
0
107789
63258
21412
20642
757
13
0
23119
6766
0
7871
5784
7903
1561
0
0
564190
428521
23359
5821
26614
6800
62013
9969
564
529
0
116297
63258
28037
20934
5970
893
240
25002
5178
0
6918
8548
7869
1667
0
0
591166
431786
15150
1134
39019
10740
64278
22584
5703
772
0
126380
63258
36371
21260
10238
4630
243
26751
5934
0
5237
11786
7686
2023
0
20
583539
384218
4761
408
36002
15704
64736
66248
10281
1181
0
142781
62857
54827
21260
25687
7470
410
25096
6474
0
3438
11690
6689
3258
0
20
605085
365240
3104
474
31132
20336
65386
103204
14465
1743
0
148630
54670
71194
21260
39363
9931
639
22766
6967
0
2378
11573
4535
4260
0
20
631997
369072
0
411
24040
21100
67806
125218
22385
1965
0
163303
54021
83757
21760
47354
13913
730
25525
6467
0
0
17503
3743
4260
0
20
649190
371113
0
728
9148
27599
76347
133784
27164
3307
0
170373
54294
91137
24018
50230
16134
755
24942
6322
0
0
18081
2141
4554
0
166
671005
369140
0
556
6649
32583
77919
140649
39585
3924
0
184242
53958
101021
24131
52764
23313
812
29263
7228
258
0
17731
5465
5847
0
220
711403
377857
11087
619
7694
31400
78225
157006
42329
5186
0
198911
55204
108307
24161
58470
24433
1242
35401
7727
1386
1128
20670
6946
6413
0
244
724782
374092
12713
725
7758
33342
78887
167548
44219
5499
0
205431
54573
112542
24333
61781
25157
1271
38316
6962
1795
1297
21164
8719
6863
0
272
0.3
0.8
-1.1
-0.4
-14.7 -100.0
-23.3
0.1
3.1
-4.0
8.7
3.0
0.4
0.5
20.9
6.6
33.7
8.1
8.4
5.2
0.0
0.0
2.1
1.4
-0.1
-1.5
6.9
4.3
0.2
0.2
15.7
6.3
23.7
6.4
5.5
5.9
0.0
0.2
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.8 -100.0
3.2
4.1
-1.6
-5.6
6.9
2.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.0
2.9
-5.5
2.3
0.8
1.5
3.5
5.3
0.0
1.2
0.1
1.5
0.6
1.3
3.0
2.8
2.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.0
4.3
2.4
0.0
13.9
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
54.2
57.8
53.0
51.2
44.9
44.9
42.7
42.0
40.2
39.3
38.8
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
34.1
3.0
0.0
90.8
77.4
13.3
33.6
4.0
0.0
89.2
79.0
10.2
31.8
2.8
0.0
90.1
76.0
14.2
34.5
3.2
0.0
90.6
73.0
17.6
35.2
3.2
0.0
92.9
65.8
27.1
37.0
5.0
0.0
94.3
60.4
33.9
36.6
3.6
0.0
96.1
58.4
37.7
31.8
4.2
0.0
98.5
57.2
41.3
31.9
4.2
0.3
98.9
55.0
43.9
34.8
4.0
1.8
97.3
53.1
44.2
36.7
4.3
2.3
97.1
51.6
45.5
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
895.5
43.0
699.2
80.7
69.1
3.5
930.0
44.0
732.7
88.6
61.5
3.1
959.3
49.9
741.2
99.3
65.9
3.0
998.6
52.6
764.9
104.6
73.3
3.1
1033.9
55.6
782.6
110.3
82.1
3.2
1102.3
58.8
825.4
123.1
91.6
3.4
1173.1
62.3
867.2
137.6
102.4
3.6
1226.7
65.1
896.9
150.7
110.2
3.8
1282.3
67.9
926.7
164.9
118.9
3.9
1325.5
70.0
950.6
175.5
125.4
4.0
1369.8
72.1
974.9
186.6
131.9
4.2
0.7
1.5
0.6
2.1
-0.5
-1.4
0.8
1.1
0.5
1.1
2.2
0.7
1.3
1.1
1.0
2.2
2.2
1.1
0.8
0.7
0.6
1.5
1.3
0.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
304.6
204.0
57.7
42.9
292.9
205.3
40.7
46.9
277.1
182.2
30.0
65.0
307.9
201.9
37.5
68.5
342.2
223.0
47.0
72.2
380.3
246.1
57.5
76.6
422.6
271.0
70.2
81.4
437.6
280.9
73.4
83.3
453.3
291.2
76.8
85.4
465.9
299.8
79.3
86.8
478.6
308.7
81.7
88.3
-0.9
-1.1
-6.3
4.2
2.1
2.0
4.6
1.1
2.1
2.0
4.1
1.2
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.4
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
50435
693
28504
13082
1132
6683
3420
50234
710
29780
11666
979
6794
3060
49996
806
30321
10969
931
6659
3080
50538
841
29238
11966
1062
7110
3200
48039
867
25919
12251
1231
7438
3330
46970
888
24102
12556
1410
7664
3500
46870
909
23517
13275
1614
7188
3680
46764
926
23572
13347
1648
6894
3750
47260
949
23864
13374
1678
7012
3830
47781
964
24166
13415
1679
7168
3870
48610
982
24610
13649
1668
7311
3910
-0.1
1.5
0.6
-1.7
-1.9
0.0
-1.0
0.0
-0.4
0.7
-1.6
1.1
2.8
1.1
0.8
0.0
-0.2
0.5
-1.0
0.8
2.7
-0.3
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
0.5
0.3
-1.4
-2.1
5.6
6.7
-0.8
62.6
59.7
-0.8
0.0
0.7
0.0
3.1
0.2
56.9
62.4
0.0
0.4
-3.0
0.0
-2.9
5.3
-0.5
1.7
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
109
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Germany: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
135698
60629
4719
15825
43750
10775
1869
7864
804
115
123
137004
56488
5877
14241
42061
18338
1684
13811
2341
353
148
132514
45125
4846
9694
36257
36593
1756
29606
3250
1452
529
117145
37417
3896
8597
24144
43091
1927
30417
5380
4247
1119
99062
30754
3107
8875
8074
48253
1966
30939
8153
5874
1320
89767
27058
2749
7240
0
52719
2075
30820
11385
7070
1368
77803
13658
2485
5961
0
55699
2229
30774
14023
7238
1435
76462
11582
1269
4480
0
59130
2254
31206
15431
7810
2428
71446
7454
616
2635
0
60741
2329
31788
15326
8598
2701
74819
4520
0
2395
0
67904
2402
33376
17173
9226
5727
76965
3679
0
2058
0
71228
2501
33343
18654
9543
7187
-0.2
-2.9
0.3
-4.8
-1.9
13.0
-0.6
14.2
15.0
28.8
15.7
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
205785
21663
126994
102682
24312
56865
263
213142
25734
122840
113690
9150
65734
-393
202567
31842
112090
93969
18120
60114
-1286
198540
28844
105465
89044
16422
63884
-114
187615
28258
96558
82001
14557
61876
135
178113
26100
89582
76725
12857
60989
475
175486
27584
84163
72850
11313
61573
884
166767
19087
80857
70929
9928
64852
1079
166894
16399
77685
68839
8846
70676
1479
163303
14736
76423
68190
8232
69500
2174
159464
13581
74887
67154
7733
68371
2204
-0.2
3.9
-1.2
-0.9
-2.9
0.6
0.0
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
343625
84802
132158
71878
43750
263
10775
345999
81731
124162
80873
42061
-393
17564
336101
77120
114204
73406
36257
-1286
36400
312657
66261
106344
72470
24144
-114
43552
283454
59012
96492
70700
8074
135
49041
264597
53158
89150
68128
0
475
53686
249915
41242
83410
67399
0
884
56980
239790
30670
78885
69133
0
1079
60023
234846
23854
75079
73037
0
1479
61397
234560
19257
73388
71368
0
2174
68374
232805
17260
71875
69817
0
2204
71649
-0.2
-0.9
-1.4
0.2
-1.9
0.0
12.9
24.7
38.5
20.9
12.7
3.1
23.6
35.9
23.4
12.2
5.1
22.9
34.0
21.8
10.8
10.8
21.2
34.0
23.2
7.7
13.9
20.8
34.0
24.9
2.8
17.3
20.1
33.7
25.7
0.0
20.3
16.5
33.4
27.0
0.0
22.8
12.8
32.9
28.8
0.0
25.0
10.2
32.0
31.1
0.0
26.1
8.2
31.3
30.4
0.0
29.1
7.4
30.9
30.0
0.0
30.8
572210
73946
613328
70749
620878
62205
603045
59216
586628
54095
583111
51809
590722
50424
593513
49892
600618
49590
613420
50859
631337
51780
0.8
-1.7
-0.6
-1.4
0.1
-0.7
0.3
0.1
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
84557
67101
1407
12891
3158
0
0
88631
65728
2035
15930
4938
0
0
94600
59887
802
19263
14625
24
0
80615
50029
184
16716
13266
420
0
77615
44093
271
19409
13404
439
0
73708
39458
446
20099
13263
441
0
63772
28080
270
20813
14128
481
0
59465
18859
260
24677
14241
1429
0
58769
13021
269
29410
14421
1648
0
58102
9296
264
28261
15631
4649
0
57197
7780
384
26574
16314
6145
0
1.1
-1.1
-5.5
4.1
16.6
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-3.0
-10.3
0.1
-0.9
33.8
0.0
-1.9
-4.4
0.0
0.7
0.5
0.9
0.0
-0.5
-6.2
1.8
1.2
0.7
13.6
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
181613
120741
225
1198
59450
190786
127817
1941
4323
56704
164954
105667
2960
4781
51545
143980
98872
3503
4367
37239
118556
90919
3930
3556
20151
103136
85197
3788
2956
11196
98641
81046
3883
2767
10945
95383
78670
3990
2481
10242
91617
76330
4060
1811
9416
90046
75468
4296
1895
8386
88915
74386
4505
1923
8101
-1.0
-1.3
29.4
14.8
-1.4
-3.2
-1.5
2.9
-2.9
-9.0
-1.8
-1.1
-0.1
-2.5
-5.9
-0.5
-0.4
0.7
-1.8
-1.5
Energy Branch Consumption
14565
14389
12920
11968
10572
9604
8827
8259
7726
7441
7253
-1.2
-2.0
-1.8
-1.0
Non-Energy Uses
31195
31327
29737
30940
30990
30223
29426
28597
27917
27488
27550
-0.5
0.4
-0.5
-0.3
219083
222407
217362
214610
201105
192650
187218
181703
178909
178575
176937
-0.1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.3
57553
39352
18200
63023
32572
65936
59012
40503
18509
67784
33238
62373
60541
41407
19134
62041
32886
61894
61024
41847
19177
61070
31505
61011
59669
40826
18843
56837
27653
56946
57172
38856
18315
55630
26276
53573
55327
37514
17814
55363
25146
51383
52929
35893
17036
54783
24409
49581
50938
34364
16574
55404
23880
48687
49832
33493
16339
56743
23746
48254
49151
32904
16246
56815
22839
48133
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.2
0.1
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.9
-1.7
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.6
-0.3
-0.9
-1.0
-0.6
-0.7
-0.5
0.1
-0.5
-0.3
10958
98722
56064
41569
6831
4939
0
9857
88873
59919
44794
10735
8228
0
9620
82458
54053
45482
11303
14445
0
9288
76438
54133
45527
12069
17138
17
8948
67246
50217
44933
11714
17998
48
8366
61483
46678
45246
11592
19195
90
8136
56856
45274
46560
11394
18830
168
7215
53454
43054
46973
11419
19315
273
6697
50743
41749
47917
11186
20188
430
6367
49650
40672
49498
11093
20714
581
6003
48466
40298
50870
10802
19787
712
-1.3
-1.8
-0.4
0.9
5.2
11.3
-7.5
-0.7
-2.0
-0.7
-0.1
0.4
2.2
171.1
-0.9
-1.7
-1.0
0.4
-0.3
0.5
13.3
-1.5
-0.8
-0.6
0.4
-0.3
0.2
7.5
8828
13949
24372
35026
40002
44830
48166
51710
53132
57602
60242
10.7
5.1
1.9
1.1
1059.7
958.9
507.9
451.0
780.8
322.4
24.8
112.3
102.1
46.2
172.9
56.7
121.4
878.3
459.6
418.7
706.0
263.2
22.4
116.3
92.8
42.7
168.7
60.6
111.8
806.7
427.8
378.9
640.5
243.7
19.9
105.6
82.1
34.8
154.4
60.7
105.6
750.1
399.6
350.6
589.3
224.9
18.4
96.5
76.1
29.5
144.1
59.5
101.3
669.4
342.4
327.0
521.7
176.9
17.6
94.4
72.6
23.7
136.6
52.7
95.0
593.0
283.9
309.1
455.9
138.1
16.1
81.5
68.9
20.8
130.4
43.9
93.2
557.3
259.5
297.8
423.8
124.0
14.9
72.6
66.4
18.7
127.2
41.7
91.8
513.1
221.9
291.2
394.5
103.6
13.9
68.7
66.2
17.1
125.1
27.5
91.1
482.1
199.8
282.3
378.1
93.8
13.4
67.2
65.0
14.6
124.1
13.6
90.4
-1.0
848.5
330.6
28.1
130.1
119.0
53.2
187.4
63.8
147.4
1030.3
543.8
486.5
838.5
342.5
27.9
115.2
123.2
52.5
177.2
61.7
130.0
-0.8
-0.3
-1.3
-1.5
-1.5
-1.4
-0.8
-1.2
-1.9
0
-1.7
-1.7
-1.7
-2.0
-2.8
-2.2
-0.6
-2.2
-2.8
-1.1
0.7
-1.4
0
-1.8
-2.2
-1.5
-2.0
-3.2
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-3.8
-1.2
-1.4
-1.1
0
-1.6
-2.7
-0.7
-1.6
-3.1
-1.3
-1.7
-0.6
-2.4
-0.5
-6.5
-0.2
0
84.20
81.90
76.20
69.80
64.10
59.60
53.20
47.10
44.30
40.80
38.30
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
-2.9
-2.4
-0.1
-3.8
-7.8
-6.3
-4.3
-2.2 -100.0
-0.9
-3.9
-5.2
-13.9 -100.0
0.0
2.8
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.3
0.6
0.4
-0.1
0.4
9.6
5.6
1.4
15.0
2.1
1.4
9.6
0.8
8.4
-0.8
-1.2
-1.5
-1.4
-2.2
0.3
0.0
-0.7
-0.2
-1.4
-1.2
-2.5
0.0
20.7
-0.5
-3.5
-0.6
-0.4
-1.9
0.5
4.7
-1.7
-1.3
-2.6
-3.5
-1.7
-1.4
-0.4
-0.5
-13.9 -100.0
0.0
20.7
3.0
1.5
-0.4
-4.3
-0.7
0.2
0.0
4.7
1.2
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
110
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Germany: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
82.163
2257.7
152.2
2.47
59.5
82.501
2325.9
148.8
2.42
61.2
81.802
2476.8
135.7
2.32
59.8
80.954
2673.6
116.9
2.26
62.9
80.098
2801.8
101.2
2.26
65.4
79.078
2915.1
90.8
2.23
66.5
77.872
2997.7
83.4
2.09
69.3
76.478
3074.3
78.0
1.90
68.6
74.815
3185.2
73.7
1.80
70.0
72.914
3326.6
70.5
1.68
68.6
70.807
3465.8
67.2
1.62
67.4
0.0
0.9
-1.1
-0.6
-0.2
1.2
-2.9
-0.3
-0.3
0.7
-1.9
-0.8
-0.5
0.7
-1.1
-1.2
226.4
10.0
298.6
12.8
313.9
12.7
373.2
14.0
408.3
14.6
411.7
14.1
418.4
14.0
419.0
13.6
424.5
13.3
437.2
13.1
447.2
12.9
3.3
2.7
0.2
0.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
43.2
46.3
95.7
105.9
96.9
41.2
36.5
101.8
94.6
86.6
40.0
34.9
94.7
88.5
76.7
37.9
33.5
89.3
79.4
64.0
33.8
31.1
83.6
75.1
58.1
30.7
28.8
79.6
72.7
53.8
28.4
27.3
75.5
70.0
50.7
26.7
26.4
71.4
67.9
47.6
25.8
25.4
68.6
65.8
45.0
25.4
24.7
66.2
62.2
41.3
25.1
24.3
0.2
-0.5
-1.4
-0.8
-2.8
-1.3
-1.7
-3.0
-1.7
-1.2
-1.1
-0.9
-1.7
-1.7
-1.3
-0.9
-0.8
-1.3
-0.6
-0.6
0.50
2.24
2.26
1.89
1.63
2.84
0.46
2.10
1.95
1.82
1.58
2.84
0.42
1.99
1.86
1.65
1.41
2.79
0.35
1.96
1.91
1.52
1.36
2.76
0.33
1.87
1.77
1.44
1.26
2.71
0.31
1.80
1.69
1.37
1.12
2.69
0.24
1.75
1.71
1.31
0.94
2.66
0.19
1.66
1.54
1.26
0.85
2.63
0.17
1.59
1.42
1.20
0.78
2.61
0.14
1.55
1.38
1.17
0.72
2.59
0.12
1.53
1.37
1.14
0.64
2.58
-1.7
-1.1
-2.0
-1.4
-1.5
-0.2
-2.4
-0.6
-0.5
-1.3
-1.1
-0.3
-3.1
-0.7
-0.4
-1.0
-2.9
-0.2
-3.3
-0.7
-1.1
-0.7
-1.9
-0.2
3.9
0.7
6.0
3.3
10.8
6.1
15.8
7.8
19.3
10.4
22.6
11.8
25.0
13.3
27.6
14.3
28.8
14.7
31.2
15.7
33.0
16.5
572313
169606
296687
4785
59970
10121
21732
9352
60
0
0
112920
21339
10495
4268
6113
114
0
81086
14369
0
51950
20352
6909
1875
0
0
613438
163055
297517
10583
77602
16589
19581
27229
1282
0
0
123274
20718
24081
4158
18415
1508
0
78475
16511
0
50207
19208
6623
2436
0
1
620989
140556
262573
8361
96744
42825
20427
37793
11681
29
0
149666
20379
48769
4258
27191
17320
0
80518
18551
0
48405
23623
5164
3318
0
8
603045
93583
228036
1145
104747
54454
22411
62564
35617
488
0
169056
12015
75907
4949
35600
35357
0
81135
21674
0
47038
26473
3796
3772
0
56
586628
31294
202629
1643
124457
57456
22860
94798
50981
510
0
192877
6808
103239
5195
48956
49089
0
82830
25283
0
45041
29422
3470
4839
0
58
583111
0
179599
2706
131121
57861
24132
132385
54794
513
0
199865
0
118432
5503
60343
52585
0
81433
25152
0
40616
31846
3044
5869
0
59
590722
0
135186
1616
144061
64423
25917
163062
55897
560
0
210791
0
129281
5748
69949
53584
0
81510
25119
0
33929
38591
2180
6747
0
64
593513
0
84108
1599
175436
66123
26213
179435
58937
1661
0
220607
0
137979
6085
75556
56338
0
82628
25879
1111
29993
43169
1851
7425
0
190
600618
0
47995
1684
207233
67845
27082
178204
68660
1916
0
230711
0
146943
6417
75584
64943
0
83768
25862
1285
25776
46745
1826
9202
0
219
613420
0
34618
1721
200457
70416
27931
199690
73182
5406
0
241298
0
158277
6877
83149
68251
0
83021
25154
1291
21046
49773
1663
9922
0
617
631337
0
31031
2462
191051
74454
29086
216911
79197
7145
0
258109
0
170859
7193
89394
74272
0
87250
26429
1291
19419
52145
2224
12646
0
816
-0.6
0.1
-13.9 -100.0
-2.6
-4.0
-15.0
-0.2
2.6
1.5
3.0
1.2
1.1
1.3
9.6
5.6
15.9
0.9
33.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
2.6
0.9
-10.4 -100.0
7.8
2.3
2.0
1.0
6.1
3.6
11.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.2
3.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-2.8
2.2
2.7
-3.9
-4.5
3.8
3.4
0.0
0.0
22.0
0.9
0.3
0.0
-7.1
2.1
1.4
0.7
0.6
1.4
1.8
13.6
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.6
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
-2.8
1.5
0.1
3.2
0.0
13.6
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
54.0
53.2
44.8
38.5
33.1
31.9
30.9
29.8
28.9
28.3
27.3
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
37.8
10.6
0.0
36.8
29.6
7.2
39.0
12.6
0.0
37.1
26.6
10.5
37.3
13.2
0.0
40.8
22.6
18.2
41.5
21.9
0.0
44.6
15.5
29.1
42.8
24.8
0.0
44.0
5.3
38.6
43.4
25.6
0.0
46.2
0.0
46.2
46.6
25.2
0.0
52.5
0.0
52.5
47.6
26.1
1.6
56.0
0.0
56.0
47.8
24.0
1.8
57.2
0.0
57.2
46.3
23.8
1.7
61.4
0.0
61.4
46.0
23.4
1.7
64.4
0.0
64.4
1065.5
69.0
849.6
90.0
54.7
2.2
1096.9
67.1
875.7
90.4
61.7
2.0
1126.3
61.8
904.7
99.4
58.5
2.0
1162.6
64.1
920.2
109.7
66.5
2.0
1199.2
66.5
933.8
121.0
76.0
2.1
1226.9
67.7
940.8
130.7
85.6
2.1
1251.4
69.2
942.3
141.4
96.5
2.1
1269.4
70.9
944.5
149.4
102.5
2.1
1288.6
72.6
946.6
158.1
109.1
2.2
1302.0
73.2
948.1
165.2
113.2
2.2
1314.7
73.9
949.4
172.0
117.2
2.2
0.6
-1.1
0.6
1.0
0.7
-1.4
0.6
0.7
0.3
2.0
2.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.1
1.6
2.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.2
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
431.2
280.7
82.7
67.8
470.5
310.1
95.4
64.9
483.4
313.1
107.3
63.0
505.7
322.8
117.0
65.9
529.1
332.5
127.6
69.0
554.1
344.1
137.7
72.3
580.1
355.8
148.7
75.7
593.4
361.8
154.2
77.5
607.2
367.8
160.1
79.3
615.7
372.4
162.8
80.4
623.8
377.2
165.0
81.6
1.2
1.1
2.6
-0.7
0.9
0.6
1.7
0.9
0.9
0.7
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.4
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
65928
1040
37017
18303
1943
7345
2810
62373
992
35410
15555
1830
8265
3210
61896
893
34934
15272
1818
8719
2600
61010
919
33025
15229
1947
9619
2710
56945
931
28663
14611
2056
10402
2820
53572
911
25416
14034
2162
10757
2910
51382
894
23608
13872
2247
10461
2990
49580
892
22764
13649
2266
9707
3020
48686
895
22311
13440
2252
9485
3040
48253
887
22016
13338
2181
9528
3030
48132
881
21800
13339
2100
9710
3010
-0.6
-1.5
-0.6
-1.8
-0.7
1.7
-0.7
0.0
-0.8
0.4
-2.0
-0.4
1.2
1.8
0.8
0.0
-1.0
-0.4
-1.9
-0.5
0.9
0.1
0.6
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
0.8
-1.9
-1.2
5.7
4.9
15.5
-0.6
15.0
69.4
119.0
0.0
2.9
-0.5
16.6
0.0
16.1
65.3
0.0
-0.1
2.6
0.0
-0.7
1.5
-2.9
5.9
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
111
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Greece: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
10011
8222
281
42
0
1466
318
1009
39
99
2
10323
8538
101
18
0
1666
431
1015
109
101
10
9473
7315
133
7
0
2017
641
919
233
197
27
9493
6759
95
0
0
2638
501
982
451
659
45
8937
5646
62
0
0
3229
598
1094
755
728
55
7147
3526
0
0
0
3621
697
1224
831
807
63
5612
1454
0
0
0
4158
775
1186
838
884
475
6574
434
0
0
0
6140
826
1337
1296
1183
1498
7702
285
0
0
0
7417
853
1408
1689
1376
2092
7869
233
0
0
0
7636
861
1475
1717
1384
2199
8165
98
0
0
0
8067
865
1504
1795
1465
2437
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
22119
769
19663
20561
-898
1689
-1
23473
364
20451
19474
977
2332
325
21805
401
17511
20726
-3215
3231
491
21037
268
17308
21334
-4026
2617
452
20760
268
16303
20289
-3986
3084
361
20942
240
15311
19309
-3998
4091
469
21528
216
14712
18667
-3955
5233
546
21020
203
14358
18238
-3879
4964
541
20148
192
14145
17932
-3787
4299
509
20148
182
13893
17605
-3712
4641
448
20224
177
13764
16659
-2895
4940
395
-0.1
-6.3
-1.2
0.1
13.6
6.7
0.0
-0.5
-4.0
-0.7
-0.2
2.2
-0.5
-3.0
0.4
-2.1
-1.0
-0.8
-0.1
5.4
4.2
-0.3
-1.0
-0.3
-0.6
-1.5
-0.3
-1.6
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
28265
9038
16058
1705
0
-1
1466
31387
8944
18098
2354
0
325
1666
28841
7863
15064
3234
0
491
2190
27660
7027
14544
2606
0
452
3031
26707
5914
13416
3041
0
361
3974
25025
3766
12336
4002
0
469
4453
24078
1670
11759
5123
0
546
4979
24467
637
11389
4806
0
541
7093
24650
477
11128
4115
0
509
8421
24778
414
10867
4429
0
448
8620
25104
274
10730
4689
0
395
9016
0.2
-1.4
-0.6
6.6
0.0
0.0
4.1
-0.8
-2.8
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
-3.0
6.1
-1.0
-11.9
-1.3
5.4
0.0
4.2
2.3
0.2
-8.6
-0.5
-0.4
0.0
-1.6
3.0
32.0
56.8
6.0
0.0
5.2
28.5
57.7
7.5
0.0
5.3
27.3
52.2
11.2
0.0
7.6
25.4
52.6
9.4
0.0
11.0
22.1
50.2
11.4
0.0
14.9
15.0
49.3
16.0
0.0
17.8
6.9
48.8
21.3
0.0
20.7
2.6
46.5
19.6
0.0
29.0
1.9
45.1
16.7
0.0
34.2
1.7
43.9
17.9
0.0
34.8
1.1
42.7
18.7
0.0
35.9
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
53415
8430
59416
10124
57356
7796
56439
6925
59454
6787
57755
6088
57480
5562
60777
5470
63733
5555
66524
5812
69511
6026
0.7
-0.8
0.4
-1.4
-0.3
-2.0
1.0
0.4
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
11606
8170
2092
1280
64
0
0
12532
8694
2180
1605
52
0
0
11075
7567
1369
2061
79
0
0
9138
6745
1118
1188
86
1
0
8071
5627
716
1580
142
6
0
6615
3471
584
2421
133
6
0
5892
1376
480
3493
129
414
0
5559
428
328
3073
295
1435
0
5260
289
265
2347
330
2030
0
5564
238
213
2647
329
2137
0
5813
103
201
2829
302
2378
0
-0.5
-0.8
-4.2
4.9
2.2
0.0
0.0
-3.1
-2.9
-6.3
-2.6
6.0
0.0
0.0
-3.1
-13.1
-3.9
8.3
-0.9
52.0
0.0
-0.1
-12.1
-4.3
-1.0
4.4
9.1
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
22535
22474
0
0
61
21614
21521
0
0
93
22768
22640
128
0
0
22323
22016
307
0
1
21639
21048
589
0
1
20551
20003
545
0
2
19877
19361
513
0
3
19438
18927
507
0
3
19100
18599
497
0
4
18757
18242
511
0
4
17830
17275
550
0
5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.7
16.5
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.8
-1.4
0.0
9.7
-0.5
-0.6
0.4
0.0
1.9
1518
1629
1726
1601
1490
1308
1153
1117
1125
1104
1066
1.3
-1.5
-2.5
-0.4
719
761
1108
1157
1295
1234
1222
1227
1211
1203
1229
4.4
1.6
-0.6
0.0
18563
20821
19158
19029
18963
18672
18489
18672
18725
18763
18911
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
4447
2736
1711
4486
2419
7212
4158
2588
1570
5497
3079
8087
3602
2357
1245
4632
2746
8177
3718
2476
1242
4638
2517
8156
4097
2780
1317
4494
2516
7857
4138
2825
1313
4537
2539
7458
4028
2711
1317
4653
2475
7333
4063
2724
1339
4763
2549
7297
4023
2707
1317
4780
2585
7337
3992
2670
1322
4791
2588
7392
4027
2654
1373
4800
2565
7518
-2.1
-1.5
-3.1
0.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.7
0.6
-0.3
-0.9
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.4
-0.2
-0.7
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
891
12631
257
3710
28
1046
0
458
14278
586
4377
49
1073
0
301
12125
781
4568
177
1205
0
265
11638
786
4534
223
1582
1
265
10912
779
4731
247
2027
1
239
10141
909
4781
273
2327
4
216
9765
961
4903
322
2317
6
200
9525
1048
5199
257
2435
8
188
9283
1083
5408
206
2541
16
176
9159
1025
5560
206
2615
21
171
9074
1077
5743
206
2615
25
-10.3
-0.4
11.7
2.1
20.3
1.4
17.7
-1.3
-1.0
0.0
0.4
3.4
5.3
0.0
-2.0
-1.1
2.1
0.4
2.7
1.3
14.4
-1.1
-0.4
0.6
0.8
-2.2
0.6
7.6
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
-0.6
-0.6
-4.5
-1.2
-2.6
-12.7
-7.2
-7.4 -100.0
-16.4 -100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
4.8
2.6
7.3
-0.7
2.6
-0.9
1.8
0.8
19.7
12.5
1.0
7.1
14.0
2.0
32.7
7.4
24.0
1.9
-12.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.4
0.6
1.2
3.9
2.6
8.5
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
1371
1517
1851
2865
3653
3865
3979
5113
5923
6074
6237
3.0
7.0
0.9
2.3
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
130.6
118.9
65.2
53.7
92.1
48.7
3.2
6.7
6.7
2.8
24.1
6.6
20.2
105.9
57.7
48.1
83.3
41.5
3.1
6.2
6.6
2.4
23.5
6.0
16.5
97.8
52.6
45.2
74.8
35.3
2.9
6.6
6.1
2.1
21.8
7.3
15.7
85.1
42.7
42.3
62.7
25.6
2.7
6.0
5.6
2.1
20.8
7.4
14.9
72.7
32.2
40.5
52.7
16.9
2.5
5.7
5.3
1.9
20.5
5.6
14.4
65.6
25.4
40.2
45.5
10.4
2.3
5.6
5.0
1.9
20.3
5.5
14.6
62.3
22.9
39.4
42.3
7.8
2.5
5.1
4.7
1.8
20.4
5.4
14.6
61.9
23.0
38.9
42.0
8.0
2.5
4.7
4.4
1.8
20.5
5.2
14.8
61.3
22.5
38.8
41.4
7.7
2.4
4.7
4.0
1.8
20.7
5.0
14.9
-0.9
98.0
52.4
2.7
10.4
7.5
3.4
21.5
8.8
23.8
137.0
77.3
59.7
106.0
56.2
2.8
8.9
9.8
4.2
24.1
9.5
21.6
-0.6
-0.7
1.8
-4.3
-1.2
-2.0
1.1
-2.8
-1.7
0
-1.9
-2.1
-1.7
-2.1
-3.1
-1.1
-0.2
-0.9
-2.8
-1.0
0.9
-2.5
0
-2.9
-4.8
-1.1
-3.4
-7.1
-1.4
-1.5
-1.4
-0.8
-0.6
-2.6
-0.9
0
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.2
-3.8
-0.1
-1.0
-1.3
-0.2
0.1
-0.6
0.2
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
121.60
127.50
110.70
98.50
91.00
79.20
67.70
61.10
58.00
57.60
57.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
112
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Greece: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
10.904
184.1
153.6
3.47
69.5
11.083
224.4
139.9
3.38
68.6
11.305
227.3
126.9
3.19
69.1
11.445
213.4
129.6
3.01
68.9
11.526
227.1
117.6
2.80
69.9
11.562
240.6
104.0
2.51
74.6
11.578
256.6
93.8
2.19
79.3
11.605
273.8
89.4
1.86
76.2
11.630
289.3
85.2
1.72
72.3
11.629
304.3
81.4
1.69
71.9
11.576
322.1
77.9
1.65
71.2
0.4
2.1
-1.9
-0.8
0.2
0.0
-0.8
-1.3
0.0
1.2
-2.2
-2.4
0.0
1.1
-0.9
-1.4
16.5
9.0
21.4
9.5
28.8
12.7
35.2
16.5
37.4
16.4
39.0
16.2
40.8
15.9
42.1
15.4
44.2
15.3
45.9
15.1
47.8
14.8
5.7
2.7
0.9
0.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
41.8
46.9
85.4
99.5
100.4
40.5
45.6
81.5
78.3
86.7
38.4
54.8
87.0
83.3
85.1
36.8
53.8
87.2
76.3
80.0
33.8
51.9
84.2
73.5
75.8
30.2
48.1
77.6
71.9
68.8
27.9
45.9
74.5
70.4
66.1
26.5
44.7
71.6
68.3
63.1
25.6
43.1
68.8
66.6
59.8
25.0
41.7
66.0
65.0
55.9
24.6
41.0
-2.0
-2.4
-1.4
-0.9
1.6
0.7
-0.3
-0.8
-1.3
-0.5
-1.2
-0.6
-1.5
-1.9
-1.2
-0.8
-0.5
-1.0
-0.6
-0.6
0.98
2.31
2.35
1.68
1.41
2.98
0.94
2.26
2.14
1.78
1.38
2.98
0.82
2.10
1.86
1.44
1.01
2.94
0.70
2.03
1.68
1.42
0.93
2.88
0.57
1.93
1.61
1.36
0.83
2.77
0.42
1.85
1.46
1.24
0.81
2.78
0.28
1.80
1.40
1.14
0.78
2.79
0.16
1.75
1.37
1.05
0.73
2.78
0.12
1.71
1.26
0.98
0.71
2.78
0.12
1.67
1.18
0.92
0.71
2.77
0.11
1.65
1.16
0.84
0.72
2.75
-1.7
-1.0
-2.3
-1.5
-3.2
-0.1
-3.6
-0.8
-1.4
-0.6
-2.0
-0.6
-7.0
-0.7
-1.4
-1.7
-0.6
0.1
-4.6
-0.4
-0.9
-1.5
-0.4
-0.1
7.0
0.0
6.9
0.0
9.2
2.0
14.6
4.9
18.7
10.1
20.2
10.5
21.1
10.6
27.0
11.3
31.3
11.8
32.1
12.5
32.8
13.6
53425
0
34313
8885
5920
163
3693
451
0
0
0
10208
0
2548
2359
189
0
0
7659
195
0
4425
1172
2034
28
0
0
59427
0
35543
9207
8171
222
5017
1266
1
0
0
11812
0
2970
2396
573
1
0
8841
312
0
4708
1826
2249
59
0
0
57367
0
30797
6089
9830
319
7460
2714
158
0
0
15061
0
3961
2436
1323
202
0
11099
373
0
4781
3416
2809
94
0
0
56439
0
27311
5482
7512
377
5829
5246
4679
2
0
20978
0
8003
2756
2195
3052
0
12975
489
0
4462
5979
2443
91
0
0
59454
0
24447
3626
9981
626
6950
8779
5038
7
0
22407
0
9868
3149
3433
3286
0
12539
528
0
4334
5589
2458
157
0
1
57755
0
15701
3114
15436
588
8100
9659
5150
7
0
20448
0
10250
3171
3720
3359
0
10197
633
0
1897
5587
2555
157
0
1
57480
0
7065
2604
22261
585
9012
9742
5729
482
0
20362
0
10577
3192
3745
3640
0
9785
1029
0
1347
5688
2521
174
0
55
60777
0
1715
1858
20622
1441
9602
15068
8802
1668
0
23743
0
13849
3192
5533
5125
0
9894
788
0
1181
6014
2127
381
0
190
63733
0
1222
1532
16520
1516
9920
19641
11022
2360
0
26685
0
16457
3192
7068
6198
0
10228
880
0
1181
6526
1737
514
0
269
66524
0
1050
1229
19340
1413
10015
19970
11022
2485
0
27872
0
16768
3192
7379
6198
0
11104
1375
0
1181
7515
1647
478
0
284
69511
0
536
1179
20582
1278
10059
20877
12236
2765
0
29450
0
17653
3192
7677
6784
0
11798
1188
0
1007
8374
1611
490
0
316
0.7
0.0
-1.1
-3.7
5.2
6.9
7.3
19.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.5
0.3
21.5
0.0
0.0
3.8
6.7
0.0
0.8
11.3
3.3
13.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
-2.3
-5.1
0.2
7.0
-0.7
12.5
41.4
38.6
0.0
4.1
0.0
9.6
2.6
10.0
32.2
0.0
1.2
3.5
0.0
-1.0
5.0
-1.3
5.3
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-11.7
-3.3
8.4
-0.7
2.6
1.0
1.3
52.0
0.0
-1.0
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.9
1.0
0.0
-2.4
6.9
0.0
-11.0
0.2
0.3
1.0
0.0
52.0
1.0
0.0
-12.1
-3.9
-0.4
4.0
0.6
3.9
3.9
9.1
0.0
1.9
0.0
2.6
0.0
3.7
3.2
0.0
0.9
0.7
0.0
-1.4
2.0
-2.2
5.3
0.0
9.1
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
55.3
53.3
40.4
29.0
28.8
31.0
31.4
28.8
27.0
27.0
26.7
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
36.5
2.1
0.0
8.1
0.0
8.1
36.5
1.7
0.0
10.9
0.0
10.9
36.5
4.3
0.0
18.6
0.0
18.6
38.3
5.2
0.0
28.6
0.0
28.6
41.2
4.8
0.0
36.0
0.0
36.0
45.3
6.1
0.0
40.7
0.0
40.7
48.2
8.6
0.0
44.4
0.0
44.4
42.2
6.2
0.0
60.2
0.0
60.2
37.9
5.0
0.0
69.8
0.0
69.8
39.4
5.7
0.0
67.5
0.0
67.5
39.0
6.9
0.0
67.9
0.0
67.9
128.7
21.7
66.7
3.1
29.9
7.3
152.9
21.7
89.7
3.4
31.1
7.1
160.2
21.1
105.4
3.0
23.8
6.8
166.0
21.7
106.6
3.2
27.6
6.9
172.1
22.3
107.3
3.3
32.1
7.0
181.3
22.9
109.9
3.6
37.7
7.3
191.1
23.5
111.9
3.8
44.3
7.7
199.3
24.0
114.3
4.2
48.8
7.9
207.7
24.5
116.6
4.5
53.9
8.2
214.8
24.8
118.6
4.8
58.1
8.5
222.0
25.1
120.5
5.0
62.6
8.8
2.2
-0.3
4.7
-0.2
-2.2
-0.7
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.9
3.0
0.3
1.1
0.5
0.4
1.4
3.3
0.8
0.8
0.3
0.4
1.4
1.7
0.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
38.7
29.0
0.4
9.3
41.6
32.5
0.6
8.5
36.7
29.8
0.6
6.3
37.9
30.6
0.6
6.7
39.2
31.3
0.7
7.2
41.0
32.6
0.7
7.8
43.0
33.8
0.7
8.4
44.7
35.1
0.8
8.8
46.4
36.3
0.8
9.3
48.0
37.5
0.8
9.6
49.6
38.7
0.9
10.0
-0.5
0.3
3.7
-3.8
0.6
0.5
0.6
1.3
0.9
0.8
1.0
1.7
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
7201
284
3338
1712
49
1325
4930
8080
283
4143
1775
53
1181
6450
8166
280
4300
1925
24
919
7170
8143
284
4131
1947
24
1023
7330
7842
285
3755
1935
24
1098
7450
7443
281
3292
1873
24
1203
7700
7316
276
3046
1868
25
1306
7950
7280
273
2932
1885
25
1353
8120
7319
273
2868
1888
25
1441
8250
7374
272
2826
1885
24
1525
8420
7499
272
2818
1917
23
1619
8510
1.3
-0.1
2.6
1.2
-6.8
-3.6
3.8
0.0
-0.4
0.2
-1.3
0.1
-0.1
1.8
0.4
0.0
-0.7
-0.3
-2.1
-0.4
0.5
1.7
0.7
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
0.1
-0.5
1.1
0.3
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
113
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Hungary: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
11598
2893
1698
2475
3672
859
15
758
0
0
86
10385
1748
1470
2331
3585
1252
17
1145
1
2
87
11088
1593
1172
2235
4078
2010
16
1844
46
5
99
10954
1725
844
1773
4465
2148
21
1911
66
56
92
10375
503
814
1871
4585
2601
22
2227
155
111
86
12349
480
757
1749
6549
2814
22
2328
196
175
93
13607
379
715
1676
8008
2830
22
2259
196
253
100
13415
320
518
1818
6128
4631
22
2419
223
364
1602
12124
983
272
1781
3826
5262
22
2717
226
363
1934
12678
865
14
698
6022
5079
22
2481
235
399
1941
12637
998
0
270
6168
5202
22
2611
241
384
1943
-0.4
-5.8
-3.6
-1.0
1.1
8.9
0.5
9.3
0.0
0.0
1.4
-0.7
-10.9
-3.6
-1.8
1.2
2.6
3.1
1.9
12.9
35.2
-1.4
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
13960
1087
5295
5883
-589
7283
296
17501
1299
5859
6071
-212
9807
535
15135
1143
5749
5952
-203
7726
447
14675
1007
5638
5927
-289
7382
560
14443
1023
5494
5860
-366
7331
492
14198
1137
5756
6098
-342
6799
400
14004
910
6093
6401
-308
6520
377
14878
837
6335
6666
-331
7114
482
15739
962
6553
6918
-365
7651
448
16363
840
6768
7167
-399
8223
418
16821
811
6713
7148
-435
8732
444
0.8
0.5
0.8
0.1
-10.1
0.6
4.2
-0.5
-1.1
-0.5
-0.2
6.1
-0.5
1.0
-0.3
-1.2
1.0
0.9
-1.7
-1.2
-2.6
0.9
-0.6
0.5
0.6
1.7
1.5
0.8
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
25300
3850
6966
9657
3672
296
859
27704
3031
7208
12094
3585
535
1252
25978
2730
6832
9815
4078
447
2077
25629
2731
6483
9155
4465
560
2235
24817
1526
6308
9203
4585
492
2704
26547
1617
6513
8548
6549
400
2921
27612
1289
6808
8195
8008
377
2934
28293
1157
6853
8932
6128
482
4742
27863
1945
6825
9433
3826
448
5387
29041
1705
6782
8921
6022
418
5193
29458
1809
6713
9002
6168
444
5322
0.3
-3.4
-0.2
0.2
1.1
4.2
9.2
-0.5
-5.6
-0.8
-0.6
1.2
1.0
2.7
1.1
-1.7
0.8
-1.2
5.7
-2.6
0.8
0.3
1.7
-0.1
0.5
-1.3
0.8
3.0
15.2
27.5
38.2
14.5
3.4
10.9
26.0
43.7
12.9
4.5
10.5
26.3
37.8
15.7
8.0
10.7
25.3
35.7
17.4
8.7
6.2
25.4
37.1
18.5
10.9
6.1
24.5
32.2
24.7
11.0
4.7
24.7
29.7
29.0
10.6
4.1
24.2
31.6
21.7
16.8
7.0
24.5
33.9
13.7
19.3
5.9
23.4
30.7
20.7
17.9
6.1
22.8
30.6
20.9
18.1
35185
7771
35750
6477
37364
6558
35383
5595
36250
5290
40959
6085
44627
6614
44883
6765
48109
8188
52694
8867
54884
9345
0.6
-1.7
-0.3
-2.1
2.1
2.3
1.0
1.7
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
6009
2755
1052
2140
61
0
0
5692
1924
155
3078
534
0
0
5265
1646
138
2704
777
0
0
4518
1915
138
1642
823
0
0
3811
693
107
2015
996
0
0
3024
675
56
1245
1049
0
0
2446
481
66
970
928
0
0
4670
410
74
1504
1191
1491
0
6740
1075
81
2168
1602
1814
0
5696
858
84
1589
1351
1814
0
5786
994
87
1422
1469
1814
0
-1.3
-5.0
-18.4
2.4
28.9
0.0
0.0
-3.2
-8.3
-2.5
-2.9
2.5
0.0
0.0
-4.3
-3.6
-4.7
-7.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0
4.4
3.7
1.4
1.9
2.3
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
12948
7634
0
470
4843
13248
8200
3
627
4418
14604
8590
175
474
5365
14366
8317
214
415
5419
14579
8225
396
368
5591
16980
8482
399
407
7690
18544
8822
419
417
8887
16581
8914
430
381
6857
14508
8927
446
348
4788
16661
8919
448
347
6946
16724
8882
458
358
7027
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.1
1.0
0.0
-0.4
8.5
-2.5
0.4
2.4
0.7
0.6
1.3
4.7
-0.5
0.0
0.5
-0.8
-1.2
Energy Branch Consumption
1164
1062
1105
948
890
985
1014
982
1087
1129
1149
-0.5
-2.1
1.3
0.6
Non-Energy Uses
1579
2162
1977
1982
2176
2480
2746
2815
2803
2773
2726
2.3
1.0
2.4
0.0
16098
18173
16660
16917
16573
17001
17189
17462
17609
17877
18187
0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.3
3513
2517
996
5603
3710
3272
3372
2271
1102
6464
4071
4266
2912
1853
1058
5719
3628
4401
2769
1711
1057
5886
3800
4462
2835
1785
1050
5530
3829
4380
3056
1942
1114
5703
3836
4407
3087
1920
1167
5746
3806
4550
3177
1954
1222
5873
3799
4614
3146
1946
1200
5923
3839
4701
3236
1967
1269
6015
3901
4725
3328
1986
1342
6105
3977
4776
-1.9
-3.0
0.6
0.2
-0.2
3.0
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
-0.3
0.5
0.0
0.9
0.7
1.1
0.4
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.2
665
4176
6503
2531
1447
774
0
690
4859
7852
2781
1308
683
0
481
4703
6261
2941
1090
1184
0
392
4652
6440
2968
1165
1300
0
378
4365
6179
3026
1149
1474
1
433
4416
6190
3247
1172
1541
2
433
4503
5994
3479
1174
1603
3
454
4533
6069
3612
1163
1626
5
453
4608
5935
3741
1272
1592
9
438
4593
5982
4028
1205
1618
12
431
4586
6161
4197
1169
1628
16
-3.2
1.2
-0.4
1.5
-2.8
4.3
0.9
-2.4
-0.7
-0.1
0.3
0.5
2.2
93.7
1.4
0.3
-0.3
1.4
0.2
0.8
15.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.0
0.1
8.6
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2.7
-0.4
-2.8
5.0
-1.3 -100.0
-1.1
-8.7
5.7
-1.3
0.8
3.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.7
2.4
1.0
8.6
2.1
1.5
16.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
814
839
1490
1798
2274
2500
2592
2942
3232
3144
3265
6.2
4.3
1.3
1.2
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
77.4
67.9
23.7
44.1
49.2
16.0
1.5
5.4
8.6
5.2
12.5
3.3
15.3
63.7
21.2
42.5
46.7
13.9
1.2
4.7
8.8
5.5
12.5
3.1
13.9
57.5
17.0
40.5
40.7
9.5
1.2
4.8
8.0
5.6
11.7
3.2
13.6
56.3
16.0
40.3
39.5
7.5
1.3
5.3
8.1
5.5
11.8
3.5
13.3
53.3
13.5
39.8
37.1
5.5
1.2
5.1
8.0
5.1
12.1
3.2
13.0
54.4
14.3
40.1
38.0
6.1
1.3
5.3
8.2
4.8
12.2
3.3
13.1
55.1
15.0
40.0
38.6
6.9
1.2
5.0
8.2
4.9
12.4
3.3
13.2
51.6
11.7
39.8
36.4
4.7
1.2
5.2
8.1
4.7
12.4
2.2
12.9
51.2
11.0
40.2
36.4
4.2
1.3
5.4
8.2
4.8
12.6
1.8
13.0
-1.3
54.9
22.1
1.5
6.8
8.8
6.1
9.5
4.0
18.5
79.1
30.1
49.0
56.3
18.3
1.2
6.7
10.7
6.7
12.5
4.3
18.6
-1.1
-3.2
-0.2
-2.3
-0.2
-1.6
2.7
-1.9
-1.9
0
-1.6
-3.3
-0.8
-1.9
-5.2
-2.6
-1.2
-0.7
0.6
-0.6
-0.2
-1.2
0
-0.8
-2.3
-0.2
-0.9
-5.2
0.6
0.6
0.0
-0.8
0.3
-0.2
-0.5
0
-0.2
-1.0
0.0
-0.1
-1.3
0.2
0.3
0.1
-0.4
0.2
-2.7
0.0
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
79.20
80.90
69.40
65.10
58.80
57.50
54.50
55.60
56.30
52.70
52.30
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
114
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Hungary: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
10.222
79.9
316.5
2.17
55.2
10.098
98.0
282.6
2.03
63.2
10.014
97.1
267.6
1.90
58.3
9.958
101.7
252.1
1.82
57.3
9.901
106.6
232.8
1.64
58.2
9.820
115.9
229.1
1.49
53.5
9.704
127.3
216.9
1.34
50.7
9.575
137.5
205.7
1.34
52.6
9.443
146.5
190.2
1.38
56.5
9.316
154.4
188.1
1.25
56.3
9.177
162.0
181.8
1.24
57.1
-0.2
2.0
-1.7
-1.3
-0.1
0.9
-1.4
-1.4
-0.2
1.8
-0.7
-2.0
-0.3
1.2
-0.9
-0.4
12.2
15.3
17.2
17.5
21.6
22.2
24.8
24.3
27.7
26.0
30.5
26.3
33.5
26.3
35.6
25.9
37.9
25.9
39.3
25.4
40.3
24.9
5.8
2.5
1.9
0.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
28.4
34.4
74.8
90.3
90.0
29.9
48.0
64.8
85.4
81.9
27.8
46.1
58.8
84.2
81.8
27.0
45.1
57.3
75.6
78.6
24.8
43.6
56.5
71.8
72.3
22.5
41.1
51.9
65.9
65.1
21.1
39.5
49.5
62.2
59.9
20.3
38.4
46.1
58.8
56.8
19.6
37.2
45.0
56.5
54.7
19.1
36.3
44.1
54.4
53.1
18.8
35.5
-4.2
-1.6
-2.0
-0.2
3.0
-1.2
-1.2
-0.4
-1.2
-0.6
-1.0
-1.4
-1.9
-1.6
-1.0
-0.8
-0.9
-1.0
-0.6
-0.5
0.41
1.94
1.92
1.57
1.65
2.92
0.34
2.02
2.00
1.66
1.65
2.94
0.31
1.90
1.85
1.50
1.44
2.84
0.27
1.87
1.71
1.49
1.46
2.81
0.18
1.81
1.68
1.45
1.45
2.68
0.13
1.81
1.74
1.42
1.44
2.67
0.09
1.77
1.64
1.40
1.35
2.66
0.10
1.75
1.67
1.39
1.28
2.65
0.10
1.73
1.60
1.38
1.27
2.64
0.07
1.70
1.61
1.35
1.20
2.63
0.06
1.70
1.61
1.34
1.20
2.63
-2.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-1.3
-0.3
-5.3
-0.5
-1.0
-0.3
0.1
-0.6
-6.7
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.7
-0.1
-2.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.6
-0.1
4.8
0.0
4.4
0.1
8.5
4.4
10.3
5.3
13.3
10.1
14.2
10.4
14.5
10.6
16.2
11.1
17.5
11.6
16.8
11.6
17.1
11.8
35191
14180
9590
4404
6719
120
178
0
0
0
0
8237
1706
44
44
0
0
0
6487
1464
0
1515
3722
957
293
0
0
35756
13834
7023
455
12502
1730
202
10
0
0
0
8301
1728
65
48
18
0
0
6508
1608
0
1324
4316
514
354
0
0
37371
15761
6234
490
11714
2449
188
534
1
0
0
9135
1992
353
56
295
2
0
6791
1462
0
1247
4678
515
350
0
0
35383
16989
6678
639
7732
2326
249
768
4
0
0
9092
2017
478
63
413
3
0
6596
1292
0
882
4899
433
382
0
0
36250
17323
1997
473
10651
3637
255
1799
114
0
0
8258
2030
1059
64
903
93
0
5168
1501
0
301
4172
147
549
0
0
40959
25911
2011
259
5508
4177
254
2281
558
0
0
8951
3029
1793
64
1236
493
0
4129
1655
0
291
3114
133
591
0
0
44627
32289
1354
267
3791
3589
258
2281
798
0
0
10167
4035
2012
64
1236
712
0
4119
1625
0
291
3114
104
610
0
0
44883
25440
1134
351
7456
4850
258
2598
1063
1733
0
10293
3019
2379
64
1387
928
0
4894
1599
0
238
3719
107
633
0
198
48109
16744
5445
466
12573
6762
255
2625
1128
2109
0
10753
2000
2446
64
1400
981
0
6307
2122
605
709
4268
137
953
0
241
52694
26426
4825
486
8321
6119
258
2733
1415
2109
0
11806
3125
2731
64
1452
1215
0
5950
2155
605
521
4068
139
981
0
241
54884
27068
5803
502
8119
6804
258
2804
1415
2109
0
12338
3200
2765
64
1485
1215
0
6373
1963
722
588
4221
126
1198
0
241
0.6
-0.3
1.1
0.9
-4.2
-10.8
-19.7
-0.3
5.7
-0.9
35.2
4.0
0.5
3.1
0.0
12.9
0.0
63.2
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
-1.0
1.6
0.2
23.1
11.6
2.4
1.4
0.0
11.8
0.0
46.8
0.0
0.0
0.5
-2.7
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
-1.9
-13.2
2.3
-1.1
-6.0
-11.8
1.8
4.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
6.4
-3.8
-5.6
-9.8
-0.1
0.1
2.4
21.5
0.0
0.0
2.1
7.1
6.6
0.0
3.2
22.6
0.0
-2.2
0.8
0.0
-0.3
-2.9
-3.4
1.1
0.0
0.0
1.0
-0.9
7.5
3.2
3.9
3.3
0.0
1.0
2.9
0.0
0.0
1.0
-1.2
1.6
0.1
0.9
2.7
0.0
2.2
0.9
0.0
3.6
1.5
1.0
3.4
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
44.7
45.7
43.3
42.2
48.1
49.8
47.7
47.5
47.6
47.5
47.3
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
29.8
13.5
0.0
41.1
40.3
0.8
32.8
19.1
0.0
44.1
38.7
5.4
34.1
19.6
0.0
50.7
42.2
8.5
33.1
21.8
0.0
57.5
48.0
9.5
37.8
23.9
0.0
63.8
47.8
16.0
34.0
21.0
0.0
81.0
63.3
17.8
31.6
18.1
0.0
87.9
72.4
15.5
28.6
20.0
0.0
80.1
56.7
23.4
34.9
27.6
12.0
61.6
34.8
26.8
33.0
23.6
10.9
74.1
50.1
24.0
34.7
22.9
11.8
73.7
49.3
24.4
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
80.1
18.7
47.0
12.3
2.1
0.0
84.2
17.8
50.5
12.2
3.7
0.0
83.6
16.0
53.8
10.2
3.6
0.0
87.4
16.6
55.7
10.8
4.4
0.0
91.4
17.2
57.5
11.4
5.3
0.0
100.3
18.1
63.0
12.8
6.4
0.0
110.0
19.0
69.0
14.4
7.7
0.0
116.5
19.6
72.8
15.4
8.7
0.0
123.3
20.2
76.7
16.5
9.9
0.0
127.6
20.6
78.7
17.2
11.0
0.0
131.9
21.0
80.7
17.9
12.2
0.0
0.4
-1.6
1.4
-1.9
5.7
0.0
0.9
0.7
0.7
1.2
3.9
0.0
1.9
1.0
1.9
2.3
3.8
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.8
1.1
2.4
0.0
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
28.8
19.1
8.8
0.9
36.4
25.2
9.1
2.1
44.9
33.7
8.8
2.4
46.7
34.6
9.6
2.6
48.5
35.4
10.4
2.7
52.3
37.8
11.4
3.0
56.3
40.4
12.6
3.3
58.8
42.1
13.2
3.4
61.4
43.9
13.9
3.6
62.9
45.1
14.3
3.6
64.6
46.2
14.6
3.7
4.5
5.8
0.0
10.4
0.8
0.5
1.7
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.9
1.9
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.6
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
3270
340
1665
864
171
230
00
4262
318
1904
1625
153
261
10
4401
278
1791
1949
151
230
10
4461
286
1773
1972
161
268
10
4379
289
1644
1977
170
299
10
4406
289
1607
2004
179
324
10
4549
290
1628
2071
189
369
10
4613
291
1622
2101
192
406
10
4700
294
1641
2133
192
439
10
4724
295
1640
2138
187
463
10
4775
294
1651
2156
180
492
10
3.0
-2.0
0.7
8.5
-1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.4
-0.9
0.1
1.2
2.7
1.3
0.0
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.5
1.1
2.1
1.7
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.2
1.4
0.4
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
115
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Ireland: Reference scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
2190
997
0
958
0
235
73
141
21
0
0
1671
847
0
461
0
364
54
213
96
0
0
1994
1040
9
316
0
628
52
329
242
6
0
2412
653
9
642
0
1107
68
493
494
52
0
2886
643
9
537
0
1698
84
622
872
119
1
3412
447
9
519
0
2436
85
719
1418
213
2
3757
281
9
661
0
2806
88
915
1498
302
3
3797
68
9
761
0
2958
93
1004
1517
341
3
3923
62
9
736
0
3116
104
1091
1544
374
3
3998
59
9
656
0
3274
117
1135
1570
448
3
4192
58
9
639
0
3485
126
1178
1658
519
3
-0.9
0.4
0.0
-10.5
0.0
10.3
-3.4
8.8
27.7
46.8
0.0
3.8
-4.7
0.0
5.4
0.0
10.4
5.0
6.6
13.7
35.8
0.0
2.7
-7.9
0.0
2.1
0.0
5.2
0.4
3.9
5.6
9.8
10.6
0.5
-7.6
0.0
-0.2
0.0
1.1
1.8
1.3
0.5
2.7
0.7
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
12156
1693
7977
2994
4982
2478
8
13715
2016
8514
3316
5198
3010
176
13001
1038
7496
2981
4514
4386
40
12984
2053
7656
3057
4599
2789
240
12211
1921
7361
2897
4464
2170
235
11422
1208
7426
2865
4561
2027
260
11437
398
7573
2844
4729
2614
294
11994
412
7724
2811
4913
3004
293
12359
413
7864
2785
5079
3168
303
12833
412
7975
2777
5199
3480
326
13339
419
8195
2793
5403
3727
329
0.7
-4.8
-0.6
0.0
-1.0
5.9
17.0
-0.6
6.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-6.8
19.3
-0.7
-14.6
0.3
-0.2
0.6
1.9
2.3
0.8
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.7
1.8
0.6
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
14249
2646
7924
3436
0
8
235
15235
2789
8437
3470
0
176
364
15100
2095
7604
4696
0
40
666
15294
2706
7563
3431
0
240
1354
14988
2564
7263
2706
0
235
2220
14718
1655
7322
2544
0
260
2937
15070
679
7461
3272
0
294
3364
15664
481
7610
3761
0
293
3519
16149
475
7744
3900
0
303
3727
16690
471
7849
4131
0
326
3913
17380
476
8060
4361
0
329
4154
0.6
-2.3
-0.4
3.2
0.0
17.0
11.0
-0.1
2.0
-0.5
-5.4
0.0
19.3
12.8
0.1
-12.4
0.3
1.9
0.0
2.3
4.2
0.7
-1.8
0.4
1.4
0.0
0.6
1.1
18.6
55.6
24.1
0.0
1.6
18.3
55.4
22.8
0.0
2.4
13.9
50.4
31.1
0.0
4.4
17.7
49.5
22.4
0.0
8.9
17.1
48.5
18.1
0.0
14.8
11.2
49.8
17.3
0.0
20.0
4.5
49.5
21.7
0.0
22.3
3.1
48.6
24.0
0.0
22.5
2.9
48.0
24.1
0.0
23.1
2.8
47.0
24.8
0.0
23.4
2.7
46.4
25.1
0.0
23.9
23669
3467
25621
3422
28429
3406
27355
3335
27686
3204
29853
3265
32358
3233
35596
3493
38015
3733
40478
3994
43333
4267
1.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.6
1.6
0.1
1.5
1.4
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
4747
1902
996
1825
24
0
0
4742
1906
766
2040
30
0
0
4592
1363
135
3017
77
0
0
3875
2087
13
1642
132
0
0
3164
1956
14
976
219
0
0
2214
1161
16
797
240
0
0
2088
218
18
1474
378
0
0
2350
8
20
1925
396
0
0
2526
5
22
2020
479
0
0
2718
5
24
2182
508
0
0
2892
5
26
2329
533
0
0
-0.3
-3.3
-18.1
5.2
12.6
0.0
0.0
-3.7
3.7
-20.4
-10.7
11.0
0.0
0.0
-4.1
-19.7
2.6
4.2
5.6
0.0
0.0
1.6
-17.4
1.9
2.3
1.7
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
3480
3317
0
0
162
3495
3354
1
0
139
3179
2943
90
0
146
3359
3066
182
0
111
3416
2907
402
0
108
3363
2874
412
0
77
3339
2853
419
0
67
3308
2820
421
0
67
3291
2794
433
0
63
3300
2786
454
0
61
3341
2802
480
0
59
-0.9
-1.2
0.0
0.0
-1.1
0.7
-0.1
16.1
0.0
-3.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.4
0.0
-4.6
0.0
-0.1
0.7
0.0
-0.6
Energy Branch Consumption
254
296
257
240
225
204
174
165
168
171
176
0.1
-1.3
-2.5
0.1
Non-Energy Uses
552
308
265
301
332
348
373
395
412
429
450
-7.1
2.3
1.2
0.9
10688
12515
11790
12379
12407
12691
13279
13861
14336
14813
15471
1.0
0.5
0.7
0.8
2497
1242
1256
2503
1670
4018
2631
1344
1287
2907
1980
4997
1921
895
1026
3241
1961
4667
2335
1056
1278
3213
1924
4907
2441
1105
1337
3107
1896
4963
2650
1190
1460
3129
1881
5031
2867
1239
1628
3209
1911
5291
3046
1274
1772
3336
1964
5516
3197
1290
1907
3403
1995
5742
3364
1298
2066
3483
2055
5910
3582
1307
2276
3592
2138
6159
-2.6
-3.2
-2.0
2.6
1.6
1.5
2.4
2.1
2.7
-0.4
-0.3
0.6
1.6
1.2
2.0
0.3
0.1
0.6
1.1
0.3
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.8
707
6918
1200
1744
0
118
0
758
8019
1461
2094
0
184
0
606
7111
1614
2163
0
295
0
589
7102
1736
2293
0
659
0
579
6773
1694
2328
0
1032
1
473
6829
1706
2535
18
1128
2
446
6933
1761
2788
64
1282
3
463
7071
1786
3043
121
1373
4
461
7189
1831
3239
189
1422
6
458
7270
1908
3450
248
1472
8
463
7458
1995
3673
355
1518
9
-1.5
0.3
3.0
2.2
0.0
9.6
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
0.5
0.7
0.0
13.3
74.9
-2.6
0.2
0.4
1.8
316.8
2.2
13.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
1.4
8.9
0.8
6.4
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
217
355
658
1227
2074
2783
3177
3313
3500
3644
3866
11.7
12.2
4.4
1.0
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
69.2
63.3
20.0
43.3
41.6
13.3
0.3
3.5
7.6
3.1
13.8
1.4
20.3
63.7
19.9
43.8
41.2
12.6
0.3
3.9
7.0
3.0
14.3
1.6
20.9
60.8
17.7
43.0
37.9
10.5
0.3
3.7
6.6
2.9
13.8
1.7
21.2
57.4
14.4
43.0
34.0
6.8
0.3
4.0
6.4
2.5
14.0
1.9
21.5
55.0
12.0
43.1
31.9
4.5
0.3
4.1
6.1
2.3
14.7
1.7
21.4
56.0
12.2
43.8
32.6
4.6
0.2
4.0
6.2
2.2
15.4
1.8
21.6
57.1
12.5
44.7
33.3
4.8
0.2
4.0
6.1
2.2
16.0
1.8
22.1
58.4
12.9
45.5
34.1
5.2
0.2
4.1
6.1
2.1
16.4
1.8
22.6
60.0
13.2
46.8
35.2
5.5
0.2
4.2
6.1
2.2
17.0
1.7
23.1
-0.9
42.9
15.5
0.3
5.3
6.3
3.3
12.1
2.9
23.5
71.5
25.4
46.1
46.9
15.3
0.4
5.6
7.0
3.5
15.0
2.6
22.0
-0.3
-1.5
1.1
-4.3
1.8
-0.7
1.3
-7.1
-1.4
0
-0.4
-1.2
-0.1
-0.9
-2.3
-1.0
0.8
-1.4
-0.7
0.0
2.1
0.4
0
-1.0
-3.9
0.0
-1.7
-8.2
-1.6
0.9
-0.9
-2.2
0.7
0.0
0.1
0
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
1.1
-0.8
0.1
0.0
-0.3
0.7
0.1
0.4
0
123.10
127.10
112.50
113.20
108.10
102.00
97.90
99.60
101.60
103.90
106.70
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
116
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Ireland: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
3.778
123.2
115.7
3.01
84.4
4.112
156.7
97.2
3.08
89.4
4.468
156.0
96.8
2.75
85.6
4.605
170.7
89.6
2.69
84.3
4.815
191.6
78.2
2.53
80.9
5.052
225.3
65.3
2.31
77.0
5.276
262.2
57.5
2.12
75.3
5.513
294.8
53.1
2.08
76.0
5.758
324.6
49.7
2.06
75.9
5.995
353.2
47.3
2.04
76.2
6.207
385.9
45.0
2.03
76.1
1.7
2.4
-1.8
-0.9
0.8
2.1
-2.1
-0.8
0.9
3.2
-3.0
-1.8
0.8
2.0
-1.2
-0.2
10.1
8.2
13.9
8.9
16.3
10.5
20.0
11.7
22.0
11.5
23.8
10.6
26.1
10.0
27.9
9.5
29.7
9.2
31.4
8.9
33.6
8.7
5.0
3.0
1.7
1.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.1
101.1
82.2
94.0
99.1
48.4
103.8
45.5
102.1
97.6
47.7
130.9
49.5
98.9
88.6
45.3
130.4
46.2
86.2
77.7
40.7
127.1
43.7
74.2
64.8
36.3
120.5
41.2
65.9
56.2
33.7
117.5
39.5
61.4
51.1
32.4
115.3
38.2
57.3
46.8
31.4
111.5
37.3
54.3
44.2
30.5
109.1
36.9
51.2
41.9
30.0
108.5
-7.6
0.2
-0.2
-0.5
2.6
0.1
-1.7
-2.3
-1.6
-0.3
-1.1
-2.6
-3.2
-1.9
-0.8
-0.6
-1.3
-1.5
-0.6
-0.4
0.65
2.53
2.14
2.53
1.99
3.00
0.60
2.49
2.14
2.43
1.76
3.01
0.47
2.37
1.80
2.35
1.58
2.95
0.46
2.28
1.65
2.19
1.58
2.91
0.38
2.18
1.54
2.14
1.53
2.78
0.23
2.12
1.50
2.04
1.35
2.78
0.13
2.05
1.43
1.89
1.22
2.78
0.12
2.00
1.32
1.85
1.12
2.79
0.12
1.97
1.25
1.79
1.08
2.78
0.12
1.93
1.21
1.74
1.03
2.77
0.12
1.90
1.16
1.69
1.02
2.76
-3.3
-0.7
-1.7
-0.8
-2.3
-0.2
-2.0
-0.8
-1.5
-0.9
-0.3
-0.6
-9.9
-0.6
-0.7
-1.2
-2.3
0.0
-0.7
-0.4
-1.0
-0.5
-0.9
0.0
2.0
0.0
2.8
0.0
5.4
2.3
9.7
4.5
16.4
10.0
21.6
10.4
23.6
10.5
23.6
10.4
24.1
10.7
24.2
11.1
24.6
11.4
23673
0
8587
4638
9263
95
846
244
0
0
0
4398
0
351
233
118
0
0
4047
77
0
1386
1834
772
55
0
0
25626
0
8839
3340
11574
130
631
1112
0
0
0
5775
0
729
233
496
0
0
5046
173
0
1370
2820
780
77
0
0
28434
0
6384
605
17714
317
599
2815
0
0
0
8269
0
1665
237
1428
0
0
6604
246
0
1370
4340
783
111
0
0
27355
0
10272
58
9921
564
795
5745
0
0
0
8454
0
2334
246
2088
0
0
6120
331
0
1370
4545
43
162
0
0
27686
0
9610
36
5847
929
980
10143
0
141
0
9793
0
3914
296
3561
0
58
5879
422
0
1268
4341
45
225
0
0
29853
0
5804
20
4781
1019
986
16493
379
371
0
11984
0
6487
301
5688
346
151
5497
578
0
1234
3993
29
241
0
0
32358
0
985
73
9919
1604
1025
17418
735
600
0
12648
0
7222
312
5992
674
244
5426
749
0
351
4569
179
326
0
0
35596
0
36
81
13561
1605
1081
17641
810
781
0
13894
0
7457
332
6059
748
319
6437
1003
0
351
5427
184
475
0
0
38015
0
22
100
14678
2023
1210
17956
851
1176
0
14712
0
7853
375
6212
786
479
6859
960
0
240
5892
186
542
0
0
40478
0
22
92
15917
2016
1357
18261
1200
1614
0
15893
0
8433
418
6252
1104
658
7460
1076
0
240
6435
192
593
0
0
43333
0
22
137
16733
2038
1471
19280
1200
2452
0
16996
0
9117
454
6559
1104
1000
7879
1129
0
240
6793
229
617
0
0
1.8
0.0
-2.9
-18.4
6.7
12.8
-3.4
27.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.5
0.0
16.8
0.2
28.3
0.0
0.0
5.0
12.3
0.0
-0.1
9.0
0.1
7.4
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
4.2
-24.6
-10.5
11.4
5.0
13.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.7
0.0
8.9
2.2
9.6
0.0
0.0
-1.2
5.6
0.0
-0.8
0.0
-24.8
7.3
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.0
-20.4
7.3
5.4
5.6
0.4
5.6
0.0
15.6
0.0
2.6
0.0
6.3
0.5
5.3
0.0
15.6
-0.8
5.9
0.0
-12.0
0.5
14.7
3.8
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
-17.4
3.2
2.6
1.2
1.8
0.5
2.5
7.3
0.0
1.5
0.0
1.2
1.9
0.5
2.5
7.3
1.9
2.1
0.0
-1.9
2.0
1.2
3.2
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
58.1
48.3
37.7
35.5
31.2
27.7
28.8
28.9
29.1
28.7
28.7
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
40.9
2.4
0.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
43.3
2.4
0.0
7.3
0.0
7.3
46.8
6.7
0.0
13.1
0.0
13.1
46.2
5.0
0.0
26.0
0.0
26.0
44.6
6.0
0.0
44.0
0.0
44.0
45.1
7.4
0.0
64.5
0.0
64.5
51.8
10.4
0.0
66.1
0.0
66.1
55.9
12.1
0.0
61.6
0.0
61.6
57.3
13.6
0.0
61.1
0.0
61.1
57.1
11.9
0.0
60.4
0.0
60.4
56.3
11.2
0.0
61.0
0.0
61.0
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
53.5
6.1
38.8
1.4
6.3
0.9
63.4
6.7
43.8
1.9
10.1
1.0
66.4
6.9
46.5
1.8
10.3
1.0
70.6
7.1
49.0
1.9
11.6
1.0
75.1
7.2
51.7
2.0
13.1
1.0
81.9
7.7
56.2
2.1
14.8
1.1
89.5
8.2
61.1
2.3
16.6
1.2
95.5
8.6
64.9
2.4
18.2
1.3
101.9
9.1
69.0
2.5
19.9
1.4
107.1
9.4
72.3
2.6
21.3
1.5
112.5
9.8
75.8
2.7
22.7
1.6
2.2
1.2
1.8
2.7
5.1
0.3
1.2
0.5
1.1
0.9
2.4
0.9
1.8
1.3
1.7
1.3
2.4
1.7
1.2
0.9
1.1
0.9
1.6
1.3
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
13.2
12.3
0.5
0.5
18.6
17.9
0.3
0.3
11.4
10.9
0.1
0.4
13.1
12.5
0.1
0.4
14.9
14.4
0.1
0.5
17.0
16.3
0.1
0.5
19.3
18.6
0.1
0.6
21.0
20.2
0.1
0.7
22.8
21.9
0.1
0.7
24.2
23.3
0.1
0.7
25.6
24.7
0.1
0.8
-1.5
-1.1
-15.4
-1.6
2.7
2.8
1.4
2.1
2.6
2.6
1.3
2.4
1.4
1.4
0.9
1.2
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
4016
74
1965
1299
40
613
250
4994
79
2126
1893
42
836
180
4664
96
2292
1466
43
748
200
4902
98
2252
1672
45
814
210
4958
100
2070
1867
47
852
220
5025
104
1973
2014
49
863
240
5285
109
1950
2238
50
913
250
5509
113
1966
2382
51
970
270
5735
118
2011
2501
50
1025
290
5904
121
2061
2599
48
1045
300
6152
125
2130
2748
45
1073
310
1.5
2.7
1.6
1.2
0.8
2.0
-2.1
0.0
0.6
0.4
-1.0
2.4
0.9
1.3
0.9
0.0
0.6
0.8
-0.6
1.8
0.7
0.7
1.5
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.4
1.0
-0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
117
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Italy: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
28491
4
5004
13627
0
9856
3801
1736
48
12
4259
28116
60
6527
9886
0
11642
3101
3518
202
30
4791
30583
64
6362
6885
0
17272
4395
7033
785
298
4762
43259
0
12467
8738
0
22053
4225
7820
1061
3144
5804
50276
0
13180
10139
0
26957
4205
9482
1802
4897
6571
49500
0
12678
7985
0
28837
4279
9276
3054
5684
6544
49909
0
12564
6795
0
30550
4385
9667
3803
6179
6516
47215
0
9135
5468
0
32612
4434
9503
4209
7892
6574
48881
0
7752
4371
0
36758
4412
10424
4545
9310
8068
48506
0
5843
2342
0
40321
4389
10690
4845
9760
10637
46431
0
4563
1463
0
40405
4361
10050
5181
9780
11033
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
153560
13133
89091
90943
-1852
47008
3813
161019
16367
79934
95086
-15153
59840
4227
149536
14301
68108
85163
-17056
61600
3797
130612
15347
53183
70454
-17271
56864
3070
120982
15095
49383
65573
-16190
50758
2854
119001
13947
47583
63054
-15471
51966
2394
118263
14012
47160
61721
-14560
51506
2215
119800
10101
49902
63551
-13649
54247
2028
120932
10053
50607
63392
-12785
53968
1882
125204
12521
51853
63813
-11961
53920
1819
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
175798
12550
91119
57945
0
3813
10371
188523
16461
84889
70651
0
4227
12295
175515
14170
70513
68057
0
3797
18977
170589
15347
62381
65591
0
3070
24200
167799
15095
59156
60845
0
2854
29849
164862
13947
56732
59839
0
2394
31949
164293
14012
55995
58152
0
2215
33919
163100
10101
55330
59507
0
2028
36134
165905
10053
54690
58099
0
1882
41181
7.1
51.8
33.0
0.0
5.9
8.7
45.0
37.5
0.0
6.5
8.1
40.2
38.8
0.0
10.8
9.0
36.6
38.4
0.0
14.2
9.0
35.3
36.3
0.0
17.8
8.5
34.4
36.3
0.0
19.4
8.5
34.1
35.4
0.0
20.6
6.2
33.9
36.5
0.0
22.2
269898
34969
296786
36143
298718
33042
319241
32343
320696
32590
333722
33226
350221
36712
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
49150
6045
18954
19668
438
4046
0
58911
10399
12079
29585
2270
4578
0
53965
9484
7365
28966
3527
4622
0
47466
11789
938
25790
3754
5194
0
45335
12357
757
21747
4545
5929
0
43045
11527
713
20347
4530
5929
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
103181
97473
0
0
5709
107863
102914
176
0
4773
98336
92366
1466
95
4408
89690
84432
1900
96
3262
85774
80330
2933
96
2415
Energy Branch Consumption
7696
10052
9539
9106
Non-Energy Uses
8429
8608
9560
9570
126142
134621
124769
41069
26005
15064
27528
15026
42519
39858
25613
14245
31232
18668
44863
3586
57838
38022
23472
1424
1799
0
Annual % Change
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
0.7
5.1
33.7 -100.0
2.4
7.6
-6.6
3.9
0.0
0.0
5.8
4.6
1.5
-0.4
15.0
3.0
32.1
8.7
37.4
32.3
1.1
3.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.5
-3.9
0.0
1.3
0.4
0.2
7.8
2.4
-0.1
-0.4
0.0
-4.9
-7.4
0.0
1.4
0.0
0.2
1.6
2.3
2.7
128919
12478
52162
63395
-11233
57131
1739
-0.3
0.9
-2.6
-0.7
24.9
2.7
0.0
-2.1
0.5
-3.2
-2.6
-0.5
-1.9
-2.8
-0.2
-0.7
-0.5
-0.6
-1.1
0.1
-2.5
0.4
-0.6
0.5
0.1
-1.3
0.5
-1.2
169704
12521
53972
55979
0
1819
45414
171237
12478
52954
58252
0
1739
45815
0.0
1.2
-2.5
1.6
0.0
0.0
6.2
-0.4
0.6
-1.7
-1.1
0.0
-2.8
4.6
-0.2
-0.7
-0.5
-0.5
0.0
-2.5
1.3
0.2
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-1.2
1.5
6.1
33.0
35.0
0.0
24.8
7.4
31.8
33.0
0.0
26.8
7.3
30.9
34.0
0.0
26.8
369286
37601
403151
45716
434790
54348
455481
58190
1.0
-0.6
0.7
-0.1
0.9
1.2
1.3
2.3
42588
11796
870
18889
5103
5929
0
40412
8044
832
20456
5152
5929
0
42722
8096
832
18685
7769
7339
0
46314
10664
924
16104
8814
9807
0
48238
10693
910
17661
8790
10185
0
0.9
4.6
-9.0
3.9
23.2
1.3
0.0
-1.7
2.7
-20.3
-2.8
2.6
2.5
0.0
-0.6
-0.5
1.4
-1.4
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.6
-0.5
0.2
-0.3
2.8
2.7
0.0
82503
77271
3020
118
2094
80979
75822
3146
117
1894
79166
74239
3070
119
1738
77371
72690
3018
35
1628
75810
71226
3029
34
1522
74039
69530
3040
32
1437
-0.5
-0.5
0.0
0.0
-2.6
-1.4
-1.4
7.2
0.1
-5.8
-0.6
-0.6
0.7
2.0
-2.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.2
-6.3
-1.4
8860
8552
8618
8328
8647
9005
9004
2.2
-0.7
-0.3
0.2
9796
9735
9816
9900
9977
10237
10491
1.3
0.2
0.0
0.3
125072
123585
122645
122251
122905
124437
125704
126375
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
31059
19287
11772
31395
20358
41957
32376
19889
12487
31639
19065
41992
32361
20009
12352
31881
18438
40905
32439
20025
12414
31425
18378
40403
32207
19824
12383
31119
18202
40724
32074
19731
12343
31105
18815
40911
32219
19816
12402
31530
19201
41488
32660
20090
12570
31883
19514
41647
32992
20074
12918
31568
19625
42190
-2.8
-2.9
-2.4
1.3
3.1
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.2
-1.0
-0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
3980
59032
40609
25871
3082
2046
0
2910
48910
38499
25736
3332
5381
0
2299
47088
38372
26849
2718
7745
1
1851
44187
37401
26763
2785
10595
2
1672
42217
37702
27390
3084
10576
4
1548
41514
37378
28331
2931
10541
9
1443
40927
37217
29716
2940
10646
16
1376
40408
37608
31784
3326
9908
27
1309
39599
38035
33702
3111
9908
39
1263
38574
38707
35074
3232
9474
51
-2.1
-1.7
0.1
0.9
8.9
11.6
-16.5
-4.4
-1.0
-0.3
0.4
-1.8
7.0
140.9
-1.8
-0.6
0.0
0.6
0.5
-0.1
14.8
-1.0
-0.4
0.2
1.1
0.5
-0.5
9.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
5958
7312
12871
17715
22185
23382
24753
26981
30083
31460
32206
8.0
5.6
1.1
1.3
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
552.6
502.0
213.7
288.3
404.7
135.9
16.4
49.5
53.6
30.2
119.1
24.4
72.9
467.5
185.1
282.4
374.4
115.7
14.9
48.8
51.9
25.3
117.7
21.5
71.5
446.2
176.9
269.3
351.8
106.5
14.1
47.5
50.1
22.8
110.9
24.2
70.2
432.1
172.0
260.1
337.8
99.2
13.3
44.6
49.7
22.5
108.5
26.0
68.3
415.1
160.6
254.5
326.6
91.8
12.8
43.8
48.0
21.5
108.6
21.6
66.9
393.0
144.1
248.9
306.7
74.9
12.4
42.6
46.8
21.1
108.8
21.6
64.8
365.7
118.8
247.0
286.1
55.8
11.9
42.6
45.1
20.8
109.9
15.1
64.6
342.3
96.5
245.8
271.8
43.7
11.5
43.4
43.2
20.3
109.7
5.4
65.1
337.9
92.5
245.4
267.1
41.2
11.0
43.3
41.5
19.8
110.3
4.7
66.0
-1.0
434.9
137.1
15.9
79.9
53.4
24.4
124.3
28.6
89.1
591.7
262.6
329.1
470.5
158.5
18.4
72.5
59.9
29.3
131.9
30.8
90.3
-0.7
-0.1
0.4
-4.7
0.0
2.2
-0.4
-1.6
-2.0
0
-1.2
-1.9
-0.7
-1.4
-2.4
-1.5
-0.4
-0.7
-2.8
-0.7
-0.1
-0.4
0
-0.7
-1.0
-0.6
-0.7
-1.5
-1.0
-0.8
-0.4
-0.6
-0.2
-1.1
-0.5
0
-1.0
-2.7
-0.2
-1.0
-3.9
-0.8
-0.1
-0.7
-0.4
0.1
-7.3
-0.1
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
105.60
113.00
95.90
89.30
85.30
82.60
79.30
75.10
69.90
65.40
64.60
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
118
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Italy: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
56.924
1496.6
117.5
2.47
86.5
58.462
1571.6
120.0
2.50
84.4
60.340
1553.2
113.0
2.31
83.8
61.788
1605.3
106.3
2.19
75.1
62.877
1691.3
99.2
2.10
70.6
63.737
1824.6
90.4
2.05
70.6
64.491
1964.2
83.6
1.99
70.3
65.166
2093.8
77.9
1.88
71.7
65.694
2225.2
74.6
1.72
71.2
65.968
2374.1
71.5
1.60
72.1
65.915
2546.7
67.2
1.56
73.5
0.6
0.4
-0.4
-0.7
0.4
0.9
-1.3
-0.9
0.3
1.5
-1.7
-0.5
0.1
1.3
-1.1
-1.2
144.3
9.6
162.0
10.3
191.5
12.3
229.0
14.3
249.9
14.8
267.8
14.7
280.8
14.3
286.7
13.7
300.7
13.5
309.9
13.1
316.7
12.4
2.9
2.7
1.2
0.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
30.5
54.4
98.9
109.3
116.8
29.7
58.6
83.3
108.5
125.3
27.3
63.8
84.6
106.8
113.2
26.3
62.0
80.7
103.1
103.7
24.2
59.9
76.2
95.0
95.3
22.4
56.3
72.6
87.5
87.2
21.0
54.0
70.0
81.7
84.0
20.4
52.7
67.9
77.3
80.2
20.0
51.6
66.6
72.2
75.9
19.7
50.5
64.8
65.2
70.7
19.3
50.5
-1.8
0.8
2.3
-1.1
1.6
-0.3
-0.5
-1.9
-1.2
-0.6
-1.1
-1.6
-1.7
-1.4
-1.0
-0.6
-1.5
-1.0
-0.4
-0.3
0.47
2.23
1.94
1.94
1.62
2.92
0.45
2.18
1.82
1.92
1.57
2.94
0.38
2.02
1.59
1.71
1.49
2.84
0.31
1.95
1.51
1.64
1.33
2.80
0.29
1.87
1.47
1.57
1.24
2.71
0.26
1.84
1.38
1.58
1.22
2.69
0.23
1.82
1.36
1.54
1.18
2.67
0.18
1.78
1.33
1.50
1.12
2.66
0.12
1.75
1.32
1.43
1.08
2.65
0.09
1.72
1.33
1.36
1.04
2.63
0.08
1.70
1.31
1.32
1.01
2.61
-2.0
-1.0
-2.0
-1.3
-0.9
-0.3
-2.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-1.8
-0.5
-2.3
-0.3
-0.7
-0.2
-0.5
-0.2
-5.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.8
-0.8
-0.1
4.6
0.3
5.3
0.9
10.0
4.7
13.8
6.4
17.5
10.2
18.6
11.2
19.7
12.0
21.4
12.4
23.4
13.0
24.1
13.4
24.5
13.9
269947
0
26272
85878
106398
1908
44205
563
18
4705
0
67866
0
13658
13212
427
19
0
54207
6476
0
8749
23807
20233
868
0
551
296839
0
43606
47124
156191
6152
36067
2344
31
5324
0
78649
0
15960
14209
1717
34
0
62689
7547
0
7864
36671
16046
1472
0
636
298772
0
39734
21713
158215
11586
51116
9126
1905
5377
0
104353
0
27098
17834
5793
3470
0
77255
8435
0
8676
54126
10546
3217
0
689
319241
0
54109
4929
154337
14623
49127
12333
23407
6377
0
116633
0
42001
18426
7371
16204
0
74632
7931
0
8950
55374
6221
3397
0
689
320696
0
59925
4014
130647
19632
48893
20954
29397
7232
0
119980
0
49300
18547
11200
19553
0
70680
8405
0
8688
53894
3706
3604
0
787
333722
0
57251
4065
121304
20122
49751
35514
38484
7232
0
132074
0
62175
18827
18005
25343
0
69898
9696
0
7087
54950
3461
3614
0
787
350221
0
60029
4896
115587
22864
50983
44223
44408
7232
0
139254
0
69979
19175
22598
28206
0
69275
9915
706
7733
54695
2394
3667
0
787
369286
0
44013
4662
126217
23266
51556
48940
63398
7232
0
144420
0
80970
19439
25258
36273
0
63450
9803
1343
5244
51611
2069
3740
0
787
403151
0
50548
4668
114993
38882
51298
52844
81045
8872
0
157462
0
92590
19503
27517
45570
0
64872
10512
3937
7833
47118
1959
6988
0
974
434790
0
70382
5305
111744
42384
51030
56337
85865
11742
0
157465
0
96516
19567
29205
47744
0
60950
10520
6894
10790
40027
1683
7148
0
1302
455481
0
70419
5255
128288
40636
50713
60243
87745
12181
0
153310
0
99067
19631
30931
48505
0
54244
10923
9351
10811
32017
1927
8137
0
1352
1.0
0.0
4.2
-12.8
4.0
19.8
1.5
32.1
59.4
1.3
0.0
4.4
0.0
7.1
3.0
29.8
68.3
0.0
3.6
2.7
0.0
-0.1
8.6
-6.3
14.0
0.0
2.3
0.7
0.0
4.2
-15.5
-1.9
5.4
-0.4
8.7
31.5
3.0
0.0
1.4
0.0
6.2
0.4
6.8
18.9
0.0
-0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-9.9
1.1
0.0
1.3
0.9
0.0
0.0
2.0
-1.2
1.5
0.4
7.8
4.2
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
3.6
0.3
7.3
3.7
0.0
-0.2
1.7
0.0
-1.2
0.1
-4.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.8
0.4
0.5
2.9
0.0
1.6
3.5
2.6
0.0
0.5
0.0
1.8
0.1
1.6
2.7
0.0
-1.2
0.5
13.8
1.7
-2.6
-1.1
4.1
0.0
2.7
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
43.2
41.2
31.5
30.2
29.5
27.9
27.7
28.2
27.9
29.8
31.9
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
39.4
8.3
0.0
19.0
0.0
19.0
37.7
9.0
0.0
16.8
0.0
16.8
37.7
11.5
0.0
26.5
0.0
26.5
42.5
12.2
0.0
33.2
0.0
33.2
42.0
14.2
0.0
39.3
0.0
39.3
42.0
16.2
0.0
45.3
0.0
45.3
42.5
16.6
2.0
48.5
0.0
48.5
43.7
16.2
3.6
52.6
0.0
52.6
43.9
15.6
9.5
57.8
0.0
57.8
44.9
15.0
15.5
56.9
0.0
56.9
45.8
14.5
19.2
55.2
0.0
55.2
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
943.0
93.4
755.9
55.2
33.5
5.0
931.4
101.0
726.5
56.5
42.7
4.7
952.9
102.9
740.5
55.6
49.4
4.5
971.6
104.3
747.8
58.2
56.6
4.6
990.7
105.2
754.7
60.7
65.5
4.7
1041.4
108.8
786.3
67.3
74.1
4.9
1094.8
113.0
818.0
74.8
83.9
5.1
1128.9
115.8
837.8
78.9
91.1
5.2
1164.1
118.6
857.8
83.1
99.2
5.3
1192.6
120.4
874.4
86.0
106.4
5.4
1221.3
122.2
890.9
88.8
113.9
5.5
0.1
1.0
-0.2
0.1
3.9
-0.9
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.9
2.9
0.2
1.0
0.7
0.8
2.1
2.5
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.9
1.5
0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
245.8
185.1
22.8
37.9
285.5
211.8
22.8
50.9
241.8
175.8
18.6
47.4
256.1
186.6
20.0
49.5
271.2
197.9
21.4
51.8
292.0
213.6
23.3
55.1
314.5
230.6
25.4
58.6
325.7
239.1
26.4
60.2
337.4
248.0
27.5
61.8
345.6
254.0
28.3
63.3
353.9
260.2
29.1
64.7
-0.2
-0.5
-2.0
2.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
0.9
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.2
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
42174
1484
22919
12485
526
3491
12690
44403
1642
21483
15699
492
3700
13870
41415
1643
19791
14551
439
3863
11280
41386
1659
18953
14967
456
4189
11620
40273
1643
17259
15301
473
4406
11920
39742
1636
16355
15424
503
4581
12450
40033
1638
15874
15945
533
4747
12960
40200
1646
15609
16110
544
4979
13120
40756
1661
15629
16345
550
5243
13270
40897
1655
15702
16385
543
5278
13330
41421
1663
15877
16799
533
5213
13370
-0.2
1.0
-1.5
1.5
-1.8
1.0
-1.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-1.4
0.5
0.7
1.3
0.6
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.8
0.4
1.2
0.7
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
119
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Latvia: Reference scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
1411
16
2
0
0
1393
242
1150
0
0
0
1868
3
7
0
0
1858
286
1568
4
0
0
2116
2
2
0
0
2111
303
1804
4
0
0
2336
3
3
0
0
2330
270
2031
28
1
0
2643
3
2
0
0
2637
277
2279
80
1
0
2502
3
2
0
0
2498
287
2102
107
1
0
2527
3
2
0
0
2522
287
2096
137
2
0
2638
0
-1
0
0
2639
287
2199
149
3
0
2518
0
-1
0
0
2519
287
2062
167
3
0
2742
0
-1
0
0
2743
287
2270
182
4
0
2767
0
-1
0
0
2768
287
2266
211
4
0
4.1
2.2
-17.4
1.5
0.6
2.2
-89.9 -100.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
2.3
2.2
-0.9
4.6
2.4
28.5
34.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.5
-0.9 -100.0
-1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.5
0.4
0.0
-0.8
0.4
5.6
2.2
7.2
3.3
2.0
0.2
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
2239
61
1113
87
1026
1113
154
2989
77
1676
4
1672
1434
185
1993
112
1443
2
1442
903
75
2868
107
1824
1
1823
1461
29
2687
92
1797
1
1796
1306
58
2929
76
1850
1
1849
1405
75
2991
73
1914
1
1913
1429
67
2980
75
1947
1
1946
1374
95
3132
71
1968
1
1967
1451
112
2911
63
1982
1
1981
1275
111
2876
48
1982
1
1981
1267
92
-1.2
6.3
2.6
-31.9
3.5
-2.1
-6.9
3.0
-2.0
2.2
-6.7
2.2
3.8
-2.6
1.1
-2.3
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.9
1.5
-0.2
-2.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.6
1.6
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
3742
132
1173
1092
0
154
1191
4484
82
1379
1358
0
185
1481
4538
109
1293
1462
0
75
1599
4920
110
1544
1460
0
29
1776
5028
94
1503
1301
0
58
2072
5111
79
1541
1395
0
75
2020
5179
75
1590
1417
0
67
2031
5261
75
1609
1354
0
95
2127
5271
71
1616
1423
0
112
2049
5257
63
1617
1241
0
111
2225
5236
48
1612
1228
0
92
2255
1.9
-1.9
1.0
3.0
0.0
-6.9
3.0
1.0
-1.4
1.5
-1.2
0.0
-2.6
2.6
0.3
-2.2
0.6
0.9
0.0
1.5
-0.2
0.1
-2.2
0.1
-0.7
0.0
1.6
0.5
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
3.5
31.4
29.2
0.0
31.8
1.8
30.8
30.3
0.0
33.0
2.4
28.5
32.2
0.0
35.2
2.2
31.4
29.7
0.0
36.1
1.9
29.9
25.9
0.0
41.2
1.5
30.2
27.3
0.0
39.5
1.5
30.7
27.3
0.0
39.2
1.4
30.6
25.7
0.0
40.4
1.3
30.7
27.0
0.0
38.9
1.2
30.8
23.6
0.0
42.3
0.9
30.8
23.4
0.0
43.1
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
4135
1438
4905
1325
6626
1285
7642
1019
7651
1010
8171
1103
8714
1159
9048
1286
9773
1413
10180
1481
10582
1510
4.8
-1.1
1.4
-2.4
1.3
1.4
1.0
1.3
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
545
53
84
408
0
0
0
602
0
18
562
21
0
0
815
9
10
767
29
0
0
970
14
9
771
175
0
0
916
22
14
661
219
0
0
921
21
10
671
220
0
0
986
20
15
731
220
0
0
1054
20
13
647
375
0
0
1077
19
0
733
324
0
0
1145
15
0
590
540
0
0
1111
2
0
561
548
0
0
4.1
-15.9
-19.3
6.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
9.0
3.3
-1.5
22.4
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
570
0
0
569
1
478
0
3
476
0
382
0
27
355
0
433
0
47
386
0
506
0
95
410
1
558
0
90
467
2
532
0
84
444
3
538
0
87
447
4
515
0
87
425
3
471
0
84
384
3
515
0
91
422
3
Energy Branch Consumption
39
42
48
18
15
16
16
20
21
23
24
2.1
Non-Energy Uses
75
97
73
78
89
95
94
96
95
93
93
-0.3
3255
4021
4271
4371
4434
4495
4548
4575
4617
4590
4566
576
229
347
1327
603
750
699
282
417
1504
749
1069
774
305
469
1511
773
1213
761
310
451
1547
793
1269
804
339
465
1559
786
1285
816
354
462
1568
789
1323
820
341
478
1577
771
1380
825
346
479
1562
772
1416
819
345
474
1560
773
1465
808
337
470
1540
764
1478
62
1057
329
385
598
824
0
74
1325
508
493
603
1018
0
94
1456
498
534
579
1110
0
92
1448
492
599
619
1120
0
69
1391
472
629
611
1262
1
55
1426
509
683
658
1162
2
52
1471
503
716
673
1130
3
53
1490
514
763
685
1067
4
50
1515
515
831
680
1022
3
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
1180
1378
1456
1595
1849
1782
1781
1805
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
10.2
6.8
2.6
0.0
1.0
0.3
0.7
2.2
0.2
3.2
11.6
3.0
8.5
7.7
2.2
0.0
1.1
0.4
0.8
3.2
0.3
3.6
12.5
3.8
8.7
8.4
2.4
0.0
1.0
0.6
0.8
3.6
0.6
3.6
12.1
3.7
8.3
8.3
2.4
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.8
3.7
0.6
3.2
11.5
3.5
7.9
7.8
2.1
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.8
3.5
0.6
3.1
12.0
3.8
8.2
8.0
2.2
0.0
0.9
0.4
0.8
3.6
0.6
3.3
12.1
3.9
8.2
8.2
2.3
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.7
3.8
0.6
3.3
12.0
3.7
8.3
8.1
2.1
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.7
3.9
0.5
3.4
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
38.10
43.20
46.80
45.00
42.80
44.80
45.30
44.80
Annual % Change
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
-3.9
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.4
-4.6
1.4
-95.9 2264.8
0.7
0.6
-0.9
-10.1
0.7 -100.0
1.0
-1.3
0.1
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
-1.2
0.8
15.1
-0.2
0.0
0.4
-0.3
-0.7
-10.8
0.4
2.0
2.0
0.5
0.0
2.8
0.4
0.3
0.0
790
334
456
1530
748
1498
3.0
2.9
3.0
1.3
2.5
4.9
0.4
1.1
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.2
0.7
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.4
47
1519
506
858
680
976
3
45
1515
508
872
677
946
3
4.2
3.3
4.2
3.3
-0.3
3.0
0.0
-3.1
-0.5
-0.5
1.6
0.5
1.3
0.0
-2.7
0.6
0.6
1.3
1.0
-1.1
15.3
-0.8
0.1
0.0
1.0
0.0
-0.9
0.0
1774
1916
1931
2.1
2.4
-0.4
0.4
12.3
3.9
8.4
8.3
2.2
0.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
4.0
0.5
3.5
11.9
3.5
8.4
7.8
1.8
0.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
4.0
0.5
3.5
11.8
3.4
8.4
7.7
1.7
0.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
4.0
0.5
3.6
2.1
2.0
-0.9
0.0
0.0
6.5
2.0
5.0
10.0
1.3
0
-0.9
-0.7
-0.9
-0.7
-1.2
0.0
-1.5
-1.8
-1.1
0.0
0.1
-1.4
0
0.6
1.0
0.4
0.6
0.9
0.0
-0.3
0.7
-0.1
0.7
0.3
0.6
0
-0.1
-0.6
0.1
-0.3
-1.5
0.0
-0.5
0.3
-0.5
0.3
-0.9
0.4
0
45.80
44.30
44.10
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
Source: PRIMES
120
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Latvia: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
2.382
12.5
298.6
1.82
59.7
2.306
18.6
241.0
1.72
63.0
2.248
18.0
252.5
1.84
41.6
2.194
21.0
233.8
1.70
55.1
2.141
23.6
213.1
1.54
50.4
2.083
26.4
193.3
1.57
53.9
2.022
29.7
174.5
1.58
54.2
1.963
32.1
163.9
1.54
53.0
1.909
34.4
153.4
1.57
55.4
1.854
36.0
146.2
1.49
51.5
1.797
36.7
142.5
1.47
51.0
-0.6
3.7
-1.7
0.1
-0.5
2.8
-1.7
-1.8
-0.6
2.3
-2.0
0.3
-0.6
1.1
-1.0
-0.4
2.0
16.1
3.2
17.0
4.6
25.6
5.7
26.9
6.6
27.8
7.2
27.1
7.9
26.6
8.4
26.2
8.8
25.6
9.3
25.8
9.7
26.4
8.6
3.6
1.9
1.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
34.5
11.6
87.7
74.7
83.0
34.2
16.6
107.1
73.9
83.4
30.4
19.5
86.1
62.6
72.8
29.0
19.4
86.1
55.3
63.6
26.7
18.7
82.8
49.0
56.2
24.9
17.8
77.5
43.6
48.3
23.3
17.2
74.9
39.9
44.4
22.3
16.6
72.0
37.4
41.1
21.9
15.9
69.3
35.4
38.7
21.6
15.4
68.1
34.6
36.9
21.4
15.0
0.7
-3.0
-1.8
-1.2
5.4
-2.2
-2.9
-2.7
-1.3
-0.4
-1.0
-2.3
-2.7
-1.4
-0.9
-0.6
-1.2
-1.3
-0.4
-0.7
0.21
1.29
1.80
0.22
1.14
2.93
0.17
1.37
1.55
0.29
1.10
2.97
0.16
1.40
1.34
0.37
1.08
2.93
0.15
1.36
1.25
0.35
1.01
2.88
0.13
1.27
1.11
0.29
0.96
2.76
0.13
1.29
1.13
0.28
0.99
2.76
0.13
1.30
1.05
0.31
0.97
2.75
0.12
1.31
1.06
0.33
0.95
2.73
0.12
1.31
1.02
0.34
0.92
2.72
0.09
1.31
0.99
0.34
0.91
2.71
0.09
1.32
0.99
0.34
0.91
2.68
-2.2
0.8
-2.9
5.1
-0.5
0.0
-2.1
-1.0
-1.9
-2.1
-1.3
-0.6
-0.3
0.2
-0.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
-2.0
0.1
-0.3
0.5
-0.3
-0.1
33.2
0.7
32.1
0.8
32.2
3.0
35.0
5.2
40.0
10.4
38.0
10.6
37.4
10.7
37.6
11.8
36.6
12.0
39.7
12.7
40.3
14.2
4136
0
78
107
1128
0
2819
4
0
0
0
1944
0
1499
1497
2
0
0
444
254
0
31
331
79
3
0
0
4906
0
0
6
1486
41
3326
47
0
0
0
2053
0
1544
1517
27
0
0
509
400
0
30
412
49
18
0
0
6627
0
2
2
2988
66
3520
49
0
0
0
2504
0
1587
1557
30
0
0
917
1079
0
40
773
51
54
0
0
7642
0
68
53
3258
792
3144
326
1
0
0
3113
0
1791
1635
155
1
0
1322
1133
0
16
1070
53
183
0
0
7651
0
84
50
2383
982
3224
927
1
0
0
3577
0
2101
1672
428
1
0
1476
1140
0
18
1167
66
225
0
0
8171
0
98
50
2459
986
3336
1241
1
0
0
3754
0
2280
1733
545
1
0
1474
1140
0
16
1167
66
225
0
0
8714
0
81
50
2681
963
3342
1594
1
0
0
3927
0
2415
1733
681
1
0
1511
1159
0
16
1204
67
225
0
0
9048
0
75
46
2114
1734
3342
1735
2
0
0
4108
0
2458
1733
723
2
0
1650
1178
0
16
1229
67
338
0
0
9773
0
78
0
2839
1578
3334
1942
2
0
0
4154
0
2525
1733
790
2
0
1629
1185
0
16
1215
37
361
0
0
10180
0
56
0
2390
2275
3337
2121
2
0
0
4281
0
2583
1733
848
2
0
1697
1343
0
16
1235
37
409
0
0
10582
0
10
0
2483
2293
3339
2455
2
0
0
4468
0
2715
1733
980
2
0
1753
1395
0
16
1269
13
454
0
0
4.8
0.0
-30.7
-32.8
10.2
0.0
2.2
28.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
0.0
0.6
0.4
29.4
0.0
0.0
7.5
15.6
0.0
2.4
8.8
-4.4
35.8
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.0
45.2
38.0
-2.2
31.0
-0.9
34.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.6
0.0
2.8
0.7
30.5
0.0
0.0
4.9
0.5
0.0
-7.4
4.2
2.6
15.3
0.0
0.0
1.3
1.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-9.8
0.0 -100.0
1.2
-0.4
-0.2
4.4
0.4
0.0
5.6
2.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.6
0.4
0.0
4.7
1.8
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.2
0.9
0.0
0.0
-1.3
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
-7.7
0.0
3.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
21.7
24.6
27.7
27.3
23.8
24.3
24.8
24.5
26.2
26.4
26.3
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
20.7
31.4
0.0
68.3
0.0
68.3
21.9
30.7
0.0
69.6
0.0
69.6
32.3
45.0
0.0
54.9
0.0
54.9
37.0
48.6
0.0
55.8
0.0
55.8
32.9
31.0
0.0
67.1
0.0
67.1
33.5
32.6
0.0
68.1
0.0
68.1
32.9
32.2
0.0
67.7
0.0
67.7
32.4
30.6
0.0
75.3
0.0
75.3
35.9
37.1
0.0
70.1
0.0
70.1
35.5
36.2
0.0
76.0
0.0
76.0
37.1
33.9
0.0
76.4
0.0
76.4
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
15.4
2.3
11.8
1.0
0.3
0.0
17.3
2.9
12.4
1.2
0.8
0.0
21.8
2.0
16.9
0.9
2.0
0.0
23.1
2.1
17.6
1.0
2.5
0.0
24.5
2.2
18.2
1.1
3.1
0.0
26.4
2.3
19.0
1.2
3.9
0.0
28.4
2.5
19.8
1.4
4.8
0.0
30.3
2.6
20.6
1.5
5.7
0.0
32.1
2.7
21.1
1.6
6.6
0.0
33.3
2.8
21.3
1.8
7.4
0.0
34.5
2.9
21.4
1.9
8.4
0.0
3.5
-1.7
3.7
-1.2
20.5
0.0
1.2
1.0
0.7
2.2
4.5
0.0
1.5
1.2
0.8
2.4
4.6
0.0
1.0
0.7
0.4
1.6
2.8
0.0
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
18.1
4.8
13.3
0.0
28.2
8.4
19.8
0.0
27.8
10.6
17.2
0.1
30.3
11.5
18.7
0.1
33.1
12.6
20.4
0.1
36.8
14.0
22.7
0.1
41.0
15.5
25.3
0.1
43.8
16.5
27.1
0.1
46.8
17.6
29.1
0.1
48.1
18.0
30.0
0.1
49.4
18.4
30.9
0.1
4.4
8.3
2.6
202.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
3.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
740
24
479
141
69
27
00
1060
29
505
380
87
59
00
1206
20
524
467
71
118
70
1259
21
505
509
72
144
80
1274
22
461
538
73
172
80
1311
23
432
570
75
202
90
1367
24
415
616
77
224
110
1402
25
405
636
79
245
120
1449
26
403
655
79
273
120
1462
26
398
653
77
295
120
1481
27
392
657
74
320
130
5.0
-1.6
0.9
12.7
0.2
15.9
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.8
-1.3
1.4
0.3
3.9
1.5
0.0
0.7
0.9
-1.0
1.4
0.6
2.7
2.7
0.0
0.4
0.5
-0.3
0.3
-0.2
1.8
0.7
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
121
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Lithuania: Reference scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
3275
12
358
0
2223
682
29
653
0
0
0
3903
20
269
0
2713
902
39
860
0
0
3
1318
9
125
0
0
1185
46
1114
19
0
5
1325
8
89
0
0
1228
41
1158
28
1
0
1489
6
65
0
0
1418
50
1337
28
2
0
3123
5
51
0
1802
1265
51
1179
30
4
0
4144
5
41
0
2597
1501
53
1409
34
6
0
4251
5
35
0
2610
1602
66
1476
53
7
0
4387
5
26
0
2636
1720
68
1513
132
7
0
4436
5
8
0
2636
1787
68
1568
143
8
0
4468
5
0
0
2636
1828
69
1595
155
8
0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
4337
87
2307
4842
-2535
2065
-115
5101
191
2681
9082
-6401
2492
-255
5737
182
2691
9347
-6656
2484
515
5866
205
2468
8784
-6316
3092
227
5714
160
2509
8435
-5926
3039
117
4920
163
2389
7949
-5560
2506
-43
4570
163
2424
7602
-5178
2497
-387
4564
169
2420
7220
-4800
2507
-395
4563
177
2407
6833
-4426
2588
-470
4605
179
2408
6458
-4050
2619
-462
4677
178
2455
6126
-3671
2625
-443
2.8
7.6
1.6
6.8
10.1
1.9
0.0
0.0
-1.2
-0.7
-1.0
-1.2
2.0
-13.8
-2.2
0.1
-0.3
-1.0
-1.3
-1.9
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.1
-1.1
-1.7
0.2
0.7
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
7160
98
2214
2064
2223
-115
675
8790
202
2773
2476
2713
-255
882
6864
205
2587
2492
0
515
1065
7044
213
2411
3091
0
227
1102
7053
166
2427
3035
0
117
1307
7890
168
2294
2499
1802
-43
1171
8563
168
2323
2489
2597
-387
1373
8661
174
2313
2495
2610
-395
1464
8794
182
2294
2571
2636
-470
1581
8880
184
2277
2598
2636
-462
1648
8977
182
2312
2600
2636
-443
1690
-0.4
7.6
1.6
1.9
-100.0
0.0
4.7
0.3
-2.1
-0.6
2.0
0.0
-13.8
2.1
2.0
0.1
-0.4
-2.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
1.0
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
1.4
30.9
28.8
31.1
9.4
2.3
31.5
28.2
30.9
10.0
3.0
37.7
36.3
0.0
15.5
3.0
34.2
43.9
0.0
15.6
2.4
34.4
43.0
0.0
18.5
2.1
29.1
31.7
22.8
14.8
2.0
27.1
29.1
30.3
16.0
2.0
26.7
28.8
30.1
16.9
2.1
26.1
29.2
30.0
18.0
2.1
25.6
29.3
29.7
18.6
2.0
25.8
29.0
29.4
18.8
11119
3076
14412
2783
4993
2003
8739
1778
9969
1656
12697
2131
18086
2533
18981
2564
20858
2709
21623
2836
22081
2937
-7.7
-4.2
7.2
-1.9
6.1
4.3
1.0
0.7
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
917
0
200
716
1
0
0
1227
0
178
1044
5
0
0
1282
0
100
1117
65
0
0
1810
0
8
1700
101
0
0
2058
0
15
1934
109
0
0
1437
0
15
1334
87
0
0
1700
0
21
1397
282
0
0
1672
0
26
1343
303
0
0
1764
0
30
1404
329
0
0
1816
0
31
1436
348
0
0
1791
0
33
1425
333
0
0
3.4
-100.0
-6.7
4.5
59.8
0.0
0.0
4.8
0.0
-17.5
5.6
5.3
0.0
0.0
-1.9
0.0
3.4
-3.2
10.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
2.4
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
8007
5120
0
653
2235
12723
9471
4
519
2730
9999
9454
45
498
2
9504
8978
55
469
2
9305
8748
131
425
1
10745
8363
125
454
1802
11209
8049
124
437
2598
11045
7775
120
540
2611
10822
7547
119
518
2637
10569
7292
118
522
2637
10386
7069
120
559
2637
2.2
6.3
0.0
-2.7
-49.9
-0.7
-0.8
11.3
-1.6
-7.2
1.9
-0.8
-0.5
0.3
118.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.2
1.2
0.1
Energy Branch Consumption
613
854
722
675
655
649
669
653
651
647
643
1.6
-1.0
0.2
-0.2
Non-Energy Uses
662
804
714
626
584
566
558
554
553
548
547
0.8
-2.0
-0.4
-0.1
3772
4614
4751
4976
4940
4912
4946
5020
5126
5209
5293
2.3
0.4
0.0
0.3
780
363
417
1369
568
1055
995
443
552
1512
677
1431
897
487
410
1584
720
1548
1048
571
477
1615
725
1588
1037
581
456
1584
712
1607
1060
593
468
1559
702
1591
1087
608
479
1563
706
1590
1117
623
493
1590
710
1603
1166
644
523
1615
707
1638
1211
656
555
1634
709
1655
1227
655
572
1700
688
1679
1.4
3.0
-0.2
1.5
2.4
3.9
1.5
1.8
1.1
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.4
0.9
0.4
-0.1
0.3
88
1355
363
533
828
605
0
192
1614
519
686
905
698
0
199
1609
567
716
922
737
0
205
1620
558
771
1021
801
0
157
1607
459
779
1016
922
0
160
1588
517
813
1034
800
0
159
1573
487
899
1044
783
1
165
1572
503
965
1046
767
1
174
1560
527
1039
1047
778
1
176
1565
535
1101
1045
785
2
174
1598
548
1150
1014
807
2
8.5
1.7
4.6
3.0
1.1
2.0
-5.7
-2.4
0.0
-2.1
0.8
1.0
2.3
41.7
0.1
-0.2
0.6
1.4
0.3
-1.6
16.9
0.5
0.1
0.6
1.2
-0.1
0.2
6.1
Annual % Change
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
-8.7
1.2
-3.0
-3.8
-10.0
-6.3
0.0 -100.0
-100.0
0.0
5.7
1.8
4.7
0.8
5.5
1.8
0.0
3.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-29.5
10.8
0.4
-1.3
-0.6
-4.6 -100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.6
1.0
0.5
1.3
0.5
0.6
1.7
8.0
10.7
2.0
2.2
-0.1
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
754
864
995
1058
1248
1098
1185
1254
1361
1429
1442
2.8
2.3
-0.5
1.0
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
19.2
21.0
8.3
12.7
12.2
3.7
1.6
1.2
0.7
0.6
4.5
1.6
7.2
21.8
9.7
12.1
13.4
4.8
1.5
1.2
0.7
0.5
4.6
1.9
6.5
21.7
9.8
11.8
13.2
5.1
1.5
1.2
0.5
0.4
4.4
2.1
6.3
20.0
8.3
11.7
11.6
3.8
1.2
1.4
0.5
0.4
4.3
2.1
6.3
19.6
8.2
11.5
11.7
3.9
1.3
1.4
0.5
0.4
4.3
1.7
6.2
19.7
8.2
11.5
11.7
3.9
1.3
1.4
0.5
0.4
4.3
1.7
6.3
19.8
8.4
11.4
11.9
4.0
1.3
1.4
0.5
0.4
4.4
1.7
6.2
19.8
8.4
11.4
11.9
4.0
1.3
1.5
0.5
0.4
4.4
1.7
6.2
20.0
8.4
11.6
12.1
4.0
1.2
1.5
0.5
0.4
4.4
1.6
6.4
0.9
10.3
4.0
1.1
1.1
0.6
0.5
3.1
1.6
7.3
23.1
10.6
12.6
12.5
3.9
1.7
1.4
0.7
0.6
4.2
1.7
8.9
1.7
-0.7
3.8
0.7
2.9
1.8
3.7
0.2
-0.2
0
0.3
1.7
-0.7
0.8
3.4
-0.5
0.7
-3.4
-3.1
-0.3
3.0
-1.3
0
-1.0
-1.8
-0.3
-1.2
-2.8
-1.4
1.1
-0.7
-1.3
-0.2
-2.2
-0.2
0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.5
0.1
-0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.1
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
38.40
46.50
42.20
43.80
43.50
40.10
39.40
39.50
39.80
39.80
40.20
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
122
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Lithuania: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
3.512
18.0
398.1
1.44
59.8
3.425
26.2
335.9
1.42
57.1
3.329
27.5
249.3
1.78
81.9
3.246
32.4
217.5
1.90
81.6
3.180
35.1
201.2
1.87
79.3
3.115
38.1
207.0
1.47
61.2
3.044
41.8
204.9
1.37
52.4
2.977
45.3
191.4
1.35
51.8
2.922
49.3
178.5
1.35
51.0
2.869
53.0
167.5
1.34
50.9
2.812
55.6
161.5
1.34
51.1
-0.5
4.4
-4.6
2.2
-0.5
2.4
-2.1
0.5
-0.4
1.8
0.2
-3.1
-0.4
1.4
-1.2
-0.1
2.9
15.9
4.2
16.0
6.1
22.2
7.4
22.8
8.4
24.1
9.4
24.6
9.9
23.7
10.2
22.6
10.6
21.6
11.0
20.8
11.4
20.6
7.9
3.3
1.6
0.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
23.8
20.1
80.3
72.3
88.2
20.5
20.6
61.3
75.7
87.1
23.1
21.7
61.0
64.0
73.1
21.9
21.1
58.8
57.3
65.8
20.4
20.3
57.4
51.3
58.9
18.4
19.3
54.4
46.4
53.6
16.9
18.3
52.2
43.3
49.4
16.1
17.7
50.0
40.0
45.0
15.8
17.1
48.2
37.4
41.7
15.7
16.5
46.8
37.0
38.5
15.6
16.0
-4.8
-2.8
-1.4
-0.3
0.8
-0.4
-2.7
-2.8
-1.2
-0.7
-0.8
-2.1
-2.0
-1.9
-1.0
-0.7
-1.1
-1.6
-0.4
-0.7
0.17
1.39
1.38
0.41
0.91
2.94
0.14
1.48
1.37
0.43
0.87
2.94
0.21
1.47
1.28
0.47
0.85
2.89
0.21
1.41
1.18
0.43
0.75
2.87
0.22
1.33
1.20
0.33
0.63
2.71
0.14
1.35
1.33
0.33
0.60
2.70
0.12
1.32
1.28
0.31
0.56
2.68
0.11
1.31
1.29
0.30
0.54
2.67
0.11
1.30
1.23
0.30
0.54
2.66
0.11
1.29
1.21
0.29
0.54
2.65
0.11
1.29
1.24
0.30
0.55
2.64
2.5
0.5
-0.7
1.4
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
-1.0
-0.7
-3.4
-3.0
-0.6
-5.9
-0.1
0.6
-0.5
-1.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
17.1
0.1
16.8
0.3
19.5
3.5
20.0
4.3
23.8
10.2
20.8
10.1
22.2
10.5
23.2
10.4
24.6
10.8
25.4
10.8
25.3
11.1
11121
8419
0
655
1707
0
340
0
0
0
0
4222
2291
99
99
0
0
0
1832
650
0
5
1506
298
24
0
0
14415
10337
0
401
3217
7
451
2
0
0
0
3419
1200
121
114
6
0
0
2098
829
0
6
1685
372
35
0
0
4994
0
0
647
3436
147
540
224
0
0
0
2544
0
267
113
154
0
0
2276
961
0
6
1816
413
41
0
0
8739
0
0
53
7456
428
474
327
0
0
0
3173
0
351
130
221
0
0
2822
888
0
7
2421
334
60
0
0
9969
0
0
86
8507
464
582
329
0
0
0
2624
0
378
156
222
0
0
2246
926
0
7
1836
338
65
0
0
12697
7684
0
13
3676
380
593
351
0
0
0
3572
1326
388
156
233
0
0
1858
969
0
0
1740
57
60
0
0
18086
11076
0
15
4608
1383
614
390
0
0
0
3762
1326
407
156
251
0
0
2030
1020
0
0
1792
57
181
0
0
18981
11130
0
151
4842
1479
768
611
0
0
0
3907
1326
549
193
356
0
0
2033
978
0
0
1820
20
192
0
0
20858
11240
0
176
5486
1628
791
1536
0
0
0
4526
1339
990
199
791
0
0
2198
1142
0
0
1963
23
211
0
0
21623
11240
0
184
6079
1665
793
1663
0
0
0
4610
1339
1042
206
836
0
0
2229
1172
0
0
1963
24
241
0
0
22081
11240
0
194
6345
1694
800
1807
0
0
0
4689
1339
1088
206
882
0
0
2263
1157
0
0
1988
26
249
0
0
7.2
6.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-18.3
-15.8
9.5
-5.9
12.2
11.5
0.8
0.5
3.9
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
3.7
0.0
0.0
3.5
0.7
3.2
0.0
3.7
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-1.0
-0.4
1.0
0.0
0.0
1.2 -100.0
0.1
-0.2
-2.0
-16.3
4.8
10.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.1
0.0
13.6
1.6
1.0
1.3
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
5.0
1.4
6.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.5
-3.9
1.6
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
26.3
44.2
20.7
29.7
41.8
38.7
52.2
52.8
50.3
51.2
51.5
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
22.2
15.5
0.0
78.8
75.7
3.1
25.4
15.5
0.0
74.9
71.7
3.2
28.4
34.6
0.0
18.2
0.0
18.2
37.7
57.5
0.0
14.1
0.0
14.1
37.9
51.2
0.0
13.8
0.0
13.8
24.4
32.3
0.0
70.9
60.5
10.4
30.4
27.8
0.0
74.4
61.2
13.2
33.3
28.0
0.0
73.7
58.6
15.1
35.6
29.3
0.0
72.9
53.9
19.0
37.5
31.8
0.0
71.0
52.0
19.1
39.5
31.2
0.0
70.4
50.9
19.5
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
30.0
2.8
26.3
0.6
0.3
0.1
40.1
3.7
35.1
0.4
0.8
0.1
34.9
2.7
30.6
0.4
1.2
0.1
36.7
2.8
31.9
0.4
1.5
0.1
38.7
2.9
33.3
0.5
1.9
0.1
40.6
3.0
34.6
0.5
2.4
0.1
42.4
3.1
35.7
0.6
2.9
0.1
43.7
3.2
36.4
0.6
3.4
0.1
45.1
3.2
37.1
0.7
4.1
0.1
46.1
3.2
37.4
0.7
4.6
0.1
46.9
3.3
37.5
0.8
5.3
0.1
1.5
-0.2
1.5
-4.8
14.3
-0.2
1.0
0.8
0.9
2.1
4.5
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.7
2.5
4.2
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.2
1.5
3.0
0.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
16.7
7.8
8.9
0.0
28.4
15.9
12.5
0.0
32.8
19.4
13.4
0.0
35.6
20.7
14.9
0.0
38.7
22.1
16.6
0.0
42.2
23.9
18.2
0.0
46.0
25.9
20.1
0.0
49.1
27.4
21.6
0.0
52.4
29.1
23.3
0.0
54.7
30.2
24.5
0.0
57.0
31.3
25.6
0.0
7.0
9.6
4.2
0.4
1.6
1.3
2.1
0.9
1.8
1.6
1.9
1.9
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.1
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
1049
17
664
266
72
27
30
1407
22
749
510
75
46
50
1520
16
737
652
61
48
60
1555
17
722
686
65
59
60
1575
17
697
719
67
69
70
1560
17
644
745
69
78
70
1560
18
609
771
72
83
70
1572
17
587
794
74
93
70
1607
17
579
819
76
108
70
1624
17
575
828
75
121
70
1648
17
573
841
74
136
70
3.8
-0.5
1.0
9.4
-1.6
6.1
7.2
0.0
0.4
0.7
-0.6
1.0
1.0
3.6
0.9
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-1.3
0.7
0.6
1.9
0.6
0.0
0.3
-0.2
-0.3
0.4
0.1
2.5
0.2
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
-7.7
-100.0
0.0
-0.1
7.2
0.0
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-4.9
-100.0
10.4
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
4.0
0.0
3.4
1.9
3.3
5.5
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
123
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Luxembourg: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
64
0
0
0
0
64
11
51
2
0
0
107
0
0
0
0
107
8
93
4
2
0
130
0
0
0
0
130
9
113
5
3
0
178
0
0
0
0
178
10
144
10
14
0
237
0
0
0
0
237
11
165
32
29
0
301
0
0
0
0
301
11
201
35
53
0
321
0
0
0
0
321
12
205
40
64
0
325
0
0
0
0
325
12
196
41
76
0
354
0
0
0
0
354
13
198
41
102
0
391
0
0
0
0
391
13
197
50
130
0
402
0
0
0
0
402
13
194
58
136
0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
3613
108
2342
0
2342
671
491
4685
77
3150
0
3150
1176
280
4510
66
2857
0
2857
1197
349
4462
38
2887
0
2887
1005
381
4278
31
2713
0
2713
868
389
4231
30
2658
0
2658
893
395
4256
28
2695
0
2695
855
409
4272
26
2711
0
2711
853
413
4269
24
2761
0
2761
788
413
4258
23
2810
0
2810
705
424
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
3627
108
2293
671
0
491
64
4810
77
3169
1176
0
280
107
4658
66
2875
1197
0
349
171
4640
38
2887
1005
0
381
329
4515
31
2713
868
0
389
514
4532
30
2658
893
0
395
555
4577
28
2695
855
0
409
590
4597
26
2711
853
0
413
594
4623
24
2761
788
0
413
637
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
3.0
63.2
18.5
0.0
1.8
1.6
65.9
24.5
0.0
2.2
1.4
61.7
25.7
0.0
3.7
0.8
62.2
21.7
0.0
7.1
0.7
60.1
19.2
0.0
11.4
0.7
58.7
19.7
0.0
12.3
0.6
58.9
18.7
0.0
12.9
0.6
59.0
18.6
0.0
12.9
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
422
341
3346
462
3232
706
2813
765
2787
763
3035
798
3337
846
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
95
0
0
67
29
0
0
577
0
0
545
32
0
0
566
0
0
521
45
0
0
443
0
0
371
72
0
0
365
0
0
280
84
0
0
379
0
0
293
86
0
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
42
0
41
1
0
114
0
113
1
0
215
0
213
1
0
Energy Branch Consumption
26
30
50
55
Non-Energy Uses
12
21
17
17
3517
4443
4302
714
603
110
469
404
1930
721
597
123
525
400
2797
108
2278
605
497
8
22
0
77
3123
631
529
22
61
0
Annual % Change
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
7.4
6.2
0.0
0.0
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.4
6.2
-1.4
1.9
8.4
3.9
7.4
21.1
97.3
26.7
0.0
0.0
3.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.1
0.7
2.2
2.1
8.4
-0.2
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.4
-0.3
2.0
3.8
0.1
4319
22
2865
0
2865
698
424
2.2
-4.8
2.0
0.0
2.0
5.9
-3.3
-0.5
-7.3
-0.5
0.0
-0.5
-3.2
1.1
-0.1
-0.9
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.5
0.1
-1.4
0.3
0.0
0.3
-1.0
0.2
4649
23
2810
705
0
424
688
4721
22
2865
698
0
424
713
2.5
-4.8
2.3
5.9
0.0
-3.3
10.3
-0.3
-7.3
-0.6
-3.2
0.0
1.1
11.7
0.1
-0.9
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.5
1.4
0.2
-1.4
0.3
-1.0
0.0
0.2
1.0
0.5
59.7
17.1
0.0
13.8
0.5
60.4
15.2
0.0
14.8
0.5
60.7
14.8
0.0
15.1
3448
865
3487
856
3561
872
3707
886
22.6
7.5
-1.5
0.8
1.8
1.0
0.5
0.2
396
0
0
296
100
0
0
400
0
0
311
89
0
0
359
0
0
266
93
0
0
301
0
0
203
99
0
0
300
0
0
206
94
0
0
19.5
0.0
0.0
22.8
4.8
0.0
0.0
-4.3
0.0
0.0
-6.0
6.4
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.8
0.0
0.0
-1.4
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-0.3
0.0
0.0
222
0
221
1
0
230
0
228
1
0
230
0
229
1
1
240
0
238
1
1
251
0
250
1
1
267
0
266
0
0
96.7
17.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.1
36.8
0.0
42.8 1846.5
0.7
0.0
0.7
-2.3
-0.4
0.8
0.0
0.8
-5.4
0.0
55
57
60
61
60
61
62
6.9
0.9
0.9
0.1
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
4.1
0.1
-0.6
-0.1
4358
4274
4283
4326
4352
4404
4467
4540
2.0
-0.1
0.1
0.2
748
642
106
486
446
2622
685
587
98
543
437
2692
683
586
98
530
424
2637
689
591
97
535
423
2636
668
572
96
529
427
2702
649
554
95
530
432
2741
632
536
96
525
430
2818
616
518
98
526
434
2890
613
511
102
519
434
2975
0.5
0.6
-0.4
0.4
1.0
3.1
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
0.9
-0.5
0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.4
-0.6
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.5
66
2856
676
568
28
108
0
38
2870
634
557
29
229
0
31
2695
587
563
30
367
1
30
2641
600
587
33
391
0
28
2679
559
623
36
401
1
26
2695
542
634
40
413
1
24
2745
522
638
45
428
1
23
2795
502
653
48
444
2
22
2849
492
664
50
462
2
-4.8
2.3
1.1
1.3
14.0
17.2
-11.0
-7.3
-0.6
-1.4
-0.1
0.7
13.0
61.5
-0.9
-0.1
-0.5
1.0
1.7
0.9
2.4
-1.4
0.3
-0.6
0.3
1.6
0.7
6.9
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
27
62
120
218
391
428
456
471
516
561
583
15.8
12.6
1.5
1.2
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
10.6
13.5
3.9
9.7
11.8
1.2
0.0
1.1
1.0
0.6
7.9
0.6
1.1
12.9
3.5
9.3
11.3
0.9
0.0
0.8
1.2
0.6
7.8
0.5
1.0
12.0
3.3
8.7
10.4
0.7
0.0
0.7
1.1
0.6
7.4
0.6
1.0
11.9
3.4
8.5
10.3
0.7
0.0
0.7
1.1
0.5
7.3
0.6
0.9
11.8
3.3
8.5
10.3
0.7
0.0
0.7
1.0
0.4
7.5
0.5
0.9
11.8
3.2
8.5
10.4
0.7
0.0
0.7
1.0
0.4
7.6
0.5
0.9
11.8
3.1
8.7
10.4
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.4
7.8
0.4
0.9
11.7
2.9
8.8
10.3
0.5
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.4
8.0
0.4
1.0
11.8
2.9
8.9
10.5
0.5
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.4
8.2
0.4
1.0
2.4
8.9
0.2
0.0
1.2
1.1
0.6
5.8
0.7
1.0
14.3
4.2
10.1
12.6
1.3
0.0
1.1
1.2
0.5
8.5
0.7
1.1
2.9
22.8
0.0
-1.4
-0.2
-0.4
3.1
-2.1
1.4
0
-1.2
-1.5
-1.1
-1.2
-6.0
0.0
-3.6
0.6
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
-1.2
0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.0
-0.6
-0.9
-2.3
0.2
-2.1
-0.6
0
0.0
-0.5
0.2
0.1
-1.8
0.0
-1.0
-0.8
-0.8
0.4
-0.8
0.1
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
80.40
108.40
102.30
97.20
90.80
89.70
88.90
88.90
88.80
88.40
89.50
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
124
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Luxembourg: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
0.434
30.8
117.8
2.46
99.6
0.461
36.7
131.0
2.62
97.4
0.502
40.3
115.7
2.54
96.8
0.541
44.1
105.3
2.44
96.2
0.573
48.6
93.0
2.31
94.8
0.600
53.3
85.0
2.28
93.4
0.626
58.3
78.6
2.26
93.0
0.649
63.6
72.3
2.26
92.9
0.670
69.3
66.7
2.24
92.3
0.688
75.4
61.6
2.22
91.6
0.704
82.1
57.5
2.22
91.5
1.5
2.7
-0.2
0.3
1.3
1.9
-2.2
-0.9
0.9
1.8
-1.7
-0.2
0.6
1.7
-1.5
-0.1
3.1
9.9
4.3
11.8
4.8
11.8
5.8
13.1
6.1
12.7
6.4
12.0
6.7
11.5
6.9
10.9
7.3
10.6
7.7
10.2
8.0
9.8
4.6
2.6
0.8
0.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
157.3
90.6
97.5
103.1
81.9
160.5
156.1
142.2
83.8
78.9
143.2
151.7
127.5
86.7
70.0
132.2
146.6
120.2
77.4
61.1
113.7
137.2
114.9
71.3
55.2
104.7
129.0
107.3
64.3
50.6
99.5
123.4
101.4
58.6
46.5
95.6
119.3
96.4
52.5
42.3
93.1
116.8
91.2
47.5
39.1
91.5
115.2
86.8
42.1
35.8
90.6
113.7
3.6
-1.8
-2.3
-0.9
5.3
-1.7
-0.8
-2.5
-2.3
-1.0
-1.1
-1.8
-1.9
-1.3
-1.1
-1.1
-2.1
-1.7
-0.5
-0.4
0.31
2.49
1.71
2.30
1.61
3.01
0.36
2.55
1.54
2.28
1.31
3.04
0.34
2.46
1.43
2.16
1.39
2.99
0.28
2.39
1.20
2.14
1.38
2.91
0.21
2.28
1.08
2.10
1.31
2.79
0.20
2.25
1.09
1.99
1.15
2.78
0.18
2.23
1.04
1.92
1.03
2.77
0.19
2.22
1.01
1.83
0.97
2.77
0.16
2.21
0.97
1.76
0.94
2.77
0.12
2.20
0.94
1.70
0.89
2.76
0.11
2.20
0.93
1.65
0.86
2.75
1.1
-0.1
-1.8
-0.6
-1.4
-0.1
-4.8
-0.7
-2.8
-0.3
-0.7
-0.7
-1.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.9
-2.4
-0.1
-2.4
-0.1
-0.6
-0.7
-0.9
0.0
0.8
0.0
1.4
0.0
2.9
1.9
5.2
5.1
9.5
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.9
10.7
11.2
10.5
12.1
10.7
13.0
11.1
13.4
11.5
422
0
0
0
215
56
124
27
0
0
0
153
0
42
32
10
0
0
111
63
0
0
95
0
16
0
0
3347
0
0
1
3106
76
94
52
18
0
0
621
0
93
34
35
24
0
528
66
0
0
506
0
22
0
0
3232
0
0
1
2918
129
108
55
21
0
0
630
0
106
34
43
29
0
524
84
0
0
505
0
19
0
0
2813
0
0
0
2190
313
113
121
76
0
0
762
0
194
38
78
78
0
568
71
0
0
501
0
67
0
0
2787
0
0
0
1708
359
130
372
218
0
0
1083
0
497
45
226
226
0
586
92
0
0
497
0
89
0
0
3035
0
0
0
1770
367
133
411
355
0
0
1241
0
653
46
256
350
0
588
95
0
0
497
0
91
0
0
3337
0
0
0
1881
439
140
459
418
0
0
1374
0
745
47
290
409
0
629
125
0
0
513
0
116
0
0
3448
0
0
0
2001
389
142
474
440
0
0
1384
0
777
48
301
429
0
606
122
0
0
484
0
122
0
0
3487
0
0
0
1728
439
146
479
696
0
0
1603
0
1024
49
304
671
0
579
114
0
0
439
0
140
0
0
3561
0
0
0
1431
458
148
585
938
0
0
1679
0
1360
50
392
918
0
320
121
0
0
208
0
111
0
0
3707
0
0
0
1453
432
150
680
992
0
0
1797
0
1504
51
480
973
0
293
115
0
0
204
0
89
0
0
22.6
-1.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 -100.0
29.8
-5.2
8.7
10.8
-1.4
1.9
7.4
21.1
89.8
26.3
14.9
-94.6
0.0
0.0
15.2
5.6
0.0
0.0
9.6
16.7
0.4
2.9
15.8
18.0
93.3
22.8
0.0
0.0
16.8
1.1
2.9
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
1.8
16.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
0.7
2.1
6.7
7.2
0.0
2.4
0.0
4.1
0.5
2.5
6.1
0.0
0.7
3.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
2.6
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.3
-0.1
0.4
2.0
4.4
3.5
0.0
1.3
0.0
3.6
0.4
2.5
4.4
0.0
-3.7
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-4.5
0.0
-1.3
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
29.7
61.2
58.2
40.7
28.5
27.1
27.0
27.7
24.3
23.7
23.1
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
24.4
17.7
0.0
49.1
0.0
49.1
47.4
10.1
0.0
7.2
0.0
7.2
46.3
9.6
0.0
9.7
0.0
9.7
48.6
14.7
0.0
22.1
0.0
22.1
48.7
15.9
0.0
38.7
0.0
38.7
48.5
14.1
0.0
41.7
0.0
41.7
50.4
18.9
0.0
43.6
0.0
43.6
51.4
18.6
0.0
42.0
0.0
42.0
51.9
18.7
0.0
50.5
0.0
50.5
53.9
17.9
0.0
59.8
0.0
59.8
54.1
17.6
0.0
60.8
0.0
60.8
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
7.3
0.6
5.7
0.3
0.6
0.0
8.1
0.8
6.5
0.3
0.6
0.0
8.5
0.9
6.7
0.3
0.6
0.0
9.2
1.0
7.2
0.4
0.6
0.0
10.0
1.1
7.7
0.4
0.7
0.0
10.5
1.1
8.1
0.4
0.8
0.0
11.1
1.2
8.5
0.5
1.0
0.0
11.6
1.3
8.8
0.5
1.1
0.0
12.2
1.3
9.2
0.5
1.2
0.0
12.6
1.4
9.5
0.6
1.3
0.0
13.1
1.4
9.7
0.6
1.4
0.0
1.5
4.2
1.5
0.4
-0.9
0.0
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.7
2.5
0.0
1.1
1.1
0.9
1.5
2.7
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.8
0.0
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
8.6
7.6
0.6
0.4
9.5
8.8
0.4
0.3
9.2
8.7
0.2
0.4
10.1
9.5
0.2
0.4
11.0
10.3
0.3
0.4
11.9
11.2
0.3
0.4
12.9
12.1
0.3
0.4
13.6
12.8
0.4
0.5
14.4
13.5
0.4
0.5
15.0
14.1
0.4
0.5
15.7
14.7
0.5
0.5
0.7
1.3
-11.3
-0.5
1.7
1.7
3.8
1.1
1.7
1.7
2.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.4
0.9
1930
11
816
766
12
321
40
2797
15
859
1476
11
432
30
2622
17
770
1387
13
431
40
2691
19
725
1458
15
470
40
2636
20
628
1482
18
484
40
2635
20
592
1512
19
486
40
2701
21
583
1571
21
501
40
2740
22
591
1602
22
499
40
2817
22
604
1656
23
507
50
2889
23
609
1707
23
523
50
2974
23
617
1761
23
543
50
3.1
4.7
-0.6
6.1
0.9
3.0
-1.0
0.0
0.1
1.1
-2.0
0.7
3.0
1.2
1.1
0.0
0.2
0.7
-0.7
0.6
1.4
0.3
0.8
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
125
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Malta: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
4
0
31
0
0
0
0
31
0
0
17
13
0
58
0
0
0
0
58
0
0
20
38
0
91
0
0
0
0
91
0
0
37
54
0
102
0
0
0
0
102
0
0
37
65
0
106
0
0
0
0
106
0
0
35
71
0
117
0
0
0
0
117
0
0
44
73
0
125
0
0
0
0
125
0
0
48
77
0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
1454
0
1454
0
1454
0
0
1626
0
1626
0
1626
0
0
2388
0
2388
0
2388
0
0
2332
0
2317
0
2317
4
10
2018
0
1715
0
1715
264
16
1976
0
1682
0
1682
250
21
1984
0
1703
0
1703
239
17
2035
0
1756
0
1756
209
40
2106
0
1807
0
1807
237
30
2179
0
1872
0
1872
248
25
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
799
0
799
0
0
0
0
969
0
969
0
0
0
0
911
0
911
0
0
0
0
897
0
880
1
0
10
6
668
0
348
250
0
16
54
659
0
334
222
0
21
81
664
0
327
202
0
17
116
648
0
321
156
0
40
131
675
0
327
180
0
30
138
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
98.2
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
52.1
37.4
0.0
8.1
0.0
50.8
33.8
0.0
12.3
0.0
49.3
30.5
0.0
17.5
0.0
49.5
24.1
0.0
20.2
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
1917
350
2240
282
2113
507
2088
453
2199
489
2116
469
2302
486
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
465
0
465
0
0
0
0
657
0
657
0
0
0
0
578
0
578
0
0
0
0
540
0
540
0
0
0
0
281
0
26
247
8
0
0
242
0
17
218
8
0
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
0
0
16
0
16
0
0
15
0
15
0
0
10
2
10
3
4
3
3
2
3
0
20
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
469
460
451
486
499
509
524
527
542
71
11
60
76
56
265
59
18
41
76
85
239
51
13
38
64
65
271
50
13
38
75
73
288
51
14
37
76
83
290
51
14
37
76
91
291
52
14
38
79
97
296
53
14
39
84
95
296
0
334
0
135
0
0
0
0
291
0
168
0
0
0
0
313
0
138
0
0
0
0
330
1
150
0
5
0
0
312
2
163
0
23
0
0
308
5
163
0
34
0
0
311
5
173
0
35
0
Annual % Change
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
0.0 180.9
0.0
0.0
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.5
0.0
0.0
7.8
15.2
0.9
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.0
0.0
1.3
1.8
1.1
2227
0
1913
0
1913
260
19
5.1
0.0
5.1
0.0
5.1
0.0
0.0
-1.7
0.0
-3.3
0.0
-3.3
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-5.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-1.0
1.1
0.6
-2.4
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.6
685
0
329
180
0
25
151
690
0
332
179
0
19
159
1.3
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-3.1
0.0
-9.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-5.1
-0.6
-2.1
0.0
1.1
7.9
0.2
-2.4
0.1
-0.6
0.0
0.6
1.6
0.0
48.4
26.6
0.0
20.4
0.0
48.1
26.3
0.0
22.0
0.0
48.2
26.0
0.0
23.1
2077
480
2320
501
2492
513
2623
522
1.0
3.8
0.4
-0.4
0.5
0.0
0.7
0.4
214
0
5
198
11
0
0
167
0
1
151
14
0
0
193
0
1
173
18
0
0
192
0
1
172
19
0
0
188
0
0
168
19
0
0
2.2
0.0
2.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.9
0.0
-26.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15
0
15
0
0
15
0
15
0
0
14
0
14
0
0
15
0
14
0
0
15
0
15
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.8
0.0
-0.9
0.0
13.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3
3
0.5
-9.5
-3.0
0.2
11
11
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
554
565
-0.4
1.0
0.5
0.4
53
14
39
90
97
301
54
14
40
96
99
305
53
14
39
100
102
310
-3.3
1.6
-4.6
-1.7
1.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
1.7
2.5
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.5
1.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
1.1
0.2
0.2
0
309
5
177
0
36
0
0
315
6
187
0
34
0
0
317
8
195
0
33
0
0
322
11
200
0
32
0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.1
0.0
6.9
0.6
5.6
4.3
15.2
-2.4
0.2
4.2
0.7
3.1
-0.4
7.8
-2.7
-0.7
0.0
0.0
-14.7 -100.0
-2.2
-0.8
3.6
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
0
0
0
5
51
76
111
122
128
138
147
0.0
79.6
8.1
1.4
2.8
3.1
2.2
0.9
2.8
1.9
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.3
3.0
2.1
0.9
2.7
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.3
1.9
1.1
0.8
1.6
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.3
1.8
1.0
0.8
1.5
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.3
1.7
0.9
0.8
1.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.3
1.6
0.8
0.8
1.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.3
1.6
0.9
0.8
1.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.3
1.6
0.9
0.8
1.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.3
1.7
0.9
0.8
1.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.3
1.3
2.5
1.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.3
3.3
2.4
0.9
3.0
2.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.3
1.1
2.2
0.0
-9.5
-2.4
-5.0
0.3
1.8
2.9
0
-5.0
-7.0
-1.3
-5.4
-9.8
0.0
-0.4
-1.0
1.5
0.1
-14.9
-2.1
0
-1.1
-1.4
-0.7
-1.1
-3.2
0.0
0.3
-3.8
1.1
0.3
-1.1
-0.7
0
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
-0.1
-1.0
0.0
0.2
-1.4
2.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0
122.70
147.80
139.80
133.00
84.00
79.30
75.40
69.50
72.70
73.20
73.70
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
126
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Malta: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
0.380
5.3
151.7
3.13
100.3
0.403
5.5
175.9
3.08
100.0
0.414
6.1
148.8
3.07
100.8
0.413
6.6
135.9
3.05
99.8
0.415
7.1
93.7
2.41
98.5
0.418
7.8
84.1
2.28
97.2
0.417
8.6
77.0
2.16
95.6
0.413
9.4
68.7
2.01
95.2
0.408
10.2
66.4
2.04
95.2
0.402
10.8
63.5
2.02
94.9
0.397
11.3
61.1
2.02
94.7
0.9
1.5
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
1.5
-4.5
-2.4
0.0
1.9
-1.9
-1.1
-0.2
1.4
-1.1
-0.3
0.4
7.9
0.6
10.2
0.8
13.4
1.0
15.0
1.0
14.2
1.1
14.5
1.2
14.4
1.3
13.8
1.4
13.6
1.4
13.2
1.5
13.2
7.1
2.2
2.1
0.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
47.3
159.2
116.1
91.9
141.9
38.0
227.6
100.0
72.4
87.2
38.6
257.7
92.0
77.6
90.5
37.5
252.6
89.2
71.4
94.7
34.0
243.6
84.9
64.1
93.9
30.8
237.7
79.3
60.4
90.6
28.3
234.1
75.5
57.8
81.1
26.3
228.8
72.6
57.4
76.3
25.1
222.1
70.6
57.4
73.3
24.4
217.6
69.2
56.9
71.2
23.9
214.9
0.0
-3.2
-1.4
-2.0
4.9
-1.1
-0.1
0.8
-1.3
-0.6
-1.2
-1.7
-0.4
-1.8
-0.4
-0.7
-0.3
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.78
2.14
1.27
1.02
0.71
3.00
0.94
1.90
0.96
0.80
0.43
3.00
0.88
2.07
0.65
0.95
0.37
3.01
0.83
2.03
0.63
0.90
0.37
2.99
0.30
1.88
0.63
0.73
0.34
2.85
0.27
1.84
0.63
0.56
0.33
2.86
0.21
1.81
0.63
0.47
0.32
2.87
0.17
1.79
0.63
0.38
0.34
2.87
0.18
1.78
0.64
0.33
0.36
2.87
0.16
1.77
0.64
0.30
0.40
2.87
0.15
1.77
0.63
0.28
0.46
2.87
1.2
-0.3
-6.4
-0.7
-6.3
0.0
-10.1
-0.9
-0.5
-2.7
-0.9
-0.5
-3.6
-0.4
0.1
-4.3
-0.4
0.1
-1.6
-0.1
0.0
-2.5
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.5
11.7
10.0
17.5
10.1
25.0
10.1
27.4
10.4
28.0
10.2
29.7
10.6
31.1
11.0
1917
0
0
1917
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
513
0
0
0
0
0
0
513
0
0
0
0
513
0
0
0
2240
0
0
2240
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
592
0
0
0
0
0
0
592
0
0
0
0
592
0
0
0
2115
0
0
2113
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
593
0
1
0
0
1
0
592
0
0
0
0
592
0
0
0
2088
0
0
2073
0
0
0
2
13
0
0
737
0
9
0
1
8
0
729
0
0
0
0
729
0
0
0
2199
0
0
125
1761
34
0
203
76
0
0
845
0
134
0
86
48
0
711
0
0
0
247
460
5
0
0
2116
0
0
78
1551
34
0
234
218
0
0
919
0
217
0
99
119
0
701
0
0
0
247
450
5
0
0
2302
0
0
26
1403
49
0
429
394
0
0
1106
0
402
0
191
211
0
704
0
0
0
247
450
7
0
0
2077
0
0
6
1073
65
0
429
503
0
0
1161
0
455
0
191
264
0
706
0
0
0
247
450
9
0
0
2320
0
0
6
1236
83
0
408
587
0
0
1217
0
495
0
191
304
0
722
0
0
0
260
450
12
0
0
2492
0
0
5
1258
89
0
513
628
0
0
1146
0
554
0
225
329
0
592
0
0
0
339
240
13
0
0
2623
0
0
0
1278
89
0
560
696
0
0
1240
0
601
0
240
361
0
639
0
0
0
575
51
13
0
0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
40.1
42.7
38.4
31.8
29.1
25.8
23.4
20.2
21.5
24.5
23.8
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
35.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
29.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
31.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
33.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.7
58.7
0.0
0.0
14.2
0.0
14.2
59.1
0.0
0.0
23.0
0.0
23.0
59.4
0.0
0.0
37.9
0.0
37.9
59.1
0.0
0.0
48.1
0.0
48.1
59.2
0.0
0.0
46.4
0.0
46.4
60.4
0.0
0.0
49.3
0.0
49.3
62.7
0.0
0.0
51.3
0.0
51.3
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4.8
0.5
1.9
0.0
2.5
0.0
4.8
0.5
2.1
0.0
2.3
0.0
5.4
0.5
2.3
0.0
2.6
0.0
5.9
0.5
2.3
0.0
3.1
0.0
6.6
0.5
2.3
0.0
3.7
0.0
7.2
0.5
2.4
0.0
4.3
0.0
8.0
0.5
2.4
0.0
5.0
0.0
8.5
0.5
2.5
0.0
5.5
0.0
9.1
0.5
2.5
0.0
6.1
0.0
9.5
0.5
2.6
0.0
6.4
0.0
9.9
0.5
2.6
0.0
6.7
0.0
1.2
0.8
2.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
2.1
0.3
0.3
0.0
3.7
0.0
2.0
0.2
0.3
0.0
3.1
0.0
1.1
0.2
0.4
0.0
1.5
0.0
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.9
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
265
9
94
40
0
122
00
239
9
86
57
0
87
00
271
10
96
64
0
102
00
288
10
94
66
0
119
00
290
9
85
66
0
129
00
291
9
77
68
0
137
00
296
9
71
70
0
146
00
296
9
69
72
0
147
00
301
9
67
72
0
153
00
305
8
67
73
0
157
00
310
8
67
73
0
161
00
0.2
0.7
0.2
4.9
0.0
-1.8
0.0
0.0
0.7
-0.3
-1.2
0.3
0.0
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.7
-1.8
0.6
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
1.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
-24.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
3.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
66.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
50.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
-2.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-14.6 -100.0
-2.2
-0.5
3.8
3.0
0.0
0.0
7.8
1.3
17.9
2.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.7
0.6
0.0
0.0
11.6
2.0
0.0
0.0
8.3
1.2
16.1
2.7
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
-0.2
-10.3
3.8
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
127
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Netherlands: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
57578
7
2429
52203
1013
1926
12
1831
71
11
0
62233
8
2341
56276
1031
2577
8
2371
178
21
0
70173
6
1989
63534
1024
3621
9
3232
343
29
8
70173
0
813
63717
1023
4620
9
3475
983
145
7
68825
0
0
61130
1024
6671
9
3901
2342
369
49
58087
0
0
49737
1047
7303
9
3837
2800
608
48
51504
0
0
42446
1249
7809
9
3977
2970
807
47
54669
0
0
43638
2786
8245
9
4144
3092
956
45
56471
0
0
44997
2786
8689
9
4237
3499
901
43
53930
0
0
41634
2661
9636
9
4448
4152
985
42
48460
0
0
35079
2661
10720
9
4792
4926
954
40
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
34732
7998
42398
61909
-19512
-17191
1626
38102
8312
48863
62185
-13322
-20941
1573
30894
9228
45569
60912
-15344
-24211
239
33853
10584
47655
58283
-10628
-25680
9
31177
10163
47567
55558
-7991
-28301
-81
39665
9891
46644
53321
-6678
-18535
-161
45859
8432
47152
51288
-4136
-11214
-313
42730
6114
46985
49276
-2291
-11875
-364
41294
5397
46619
47406
-788
-12273
-324
44942
5121
47319
45891
1428
-9106
-179
52318
4945
48093
44497
3597
-2176
-191
-1.2
1.4
0.7
-0.2
-2.4
3.5
-17.5
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
76571
7852
29244
35009
1013
1626
1827
82525
8195
33520
35334
1031
1573
2872
86924
7596
35067
39309
1024
239
3690
89364
10584
33876
37967
1023
9
5904
84810
10163
32664
32539
1024
-81
8500
81704
9891
31211
30586
1047
-161
9129
80276
8432
30871
30426
1249
-313
9611
79340
6114
30176
30513
2786
-364
10115
78759
5397
29395
30942
2786
-324
10564
78528
5121
29216
30286
2661
-179
11423
78807
4945
28927
30098
2661
-191
12368
10.3
38.2
45.7
1.3
2.4
9.9
40.6
42.8
1.2
3.5
8.7
40.3
45.2
1.2
4.2
11.8
37.9
42.5
1.1
6.6
12.0
38.5
38.4
1.2
10.0
12.1
38.2
37.4
1.3
11.2
10.5
38.5
37.9
1.6
12.0
7.7
38.0
38.5
3.5
12.7
6.9
37.3
39.3
3.5
13.4
6.5
37.2
38.6
3.4
14.5
6.3
36.7
38.2
3.4
15.7
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
89615
7683
100201
8519
118119
8244
132991
10394
130483
10514
131124
10535
136192
10868
139862
11301
144878
10841
148270
10913
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
17483
4998
634
10638
1213
0
0
19476
4958
553
11913
2052
0
0
21201
4669
342
13730
2460
0
0
23350
7835
422
12403
2691
0
0
19991
7455
485
9077
2974
0
0
18941
7351
517
7972
3101
0
0
18810
6010
562
9071
3168
0
0
17680
3884
593
9725
3479
0
0
17855
3197
619
10473
3566
0
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
87355
83133
0
398
3824
91889
87341
0
436
4113
64643
59909
229
499
4007
65178
60132
548
684
3814
64076
58746
1027
589
3714
61591
56655
1005
404
3527
60210
55232
995
416
3568
59774
53506
990
398
4880
57881
51669
991
412
4808
Annual % Change
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Energy Branch Consumption
2.0
-0.2
-2.0 -100.0
-2.0 -100.0
2.0
-0.4
0.1
0.0
6.5
6.3
-3.0
0.0
5.8
1.9
17.0
21.2
9.9
28.9
0.0
20.6
-2.9
0.0
0.0
-3.6
2.0
1.6
0.0
0.2
2.4
8.1
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-0.9
3.9
1.6
0.0
0.9
2.6
0.8
-0.8
0.1
1.0
0.4
-0.9
-6.3
1.6
0.0
3.9
-1.9
-0.1
-0.8
-6.4
-8.8
14.4
0.7
-2.6
0.1
-0.7
0.0
-7.9
-2.4
1.3
-0.3
1.8
1.2
0.1
-17.5
7.3
-0.2
3.0
-0.7
-1.9
0.0
0.0
8.7
-0.5
-1.9
-0.6
-0.7
2.0
14.4
1.2
-0.1
-2.6
-0.3
-0.1
3.9
-2.4
1.3
151196
10952
2.8
0.7
1.0
2.5
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.0
17200
3006
652
9800
3742
0
0
16726
2948
685
9153
3939
0
0
1.9
-0.7
-6.0
2.6
7.3
0.0
0.0
-0.6
4.8
3.6
-4.1
1.9
0.0
0.0
-0.6
-2.1
1.5
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
-0.6
-3.5
1.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
56280
50303
1027
385
4566
54749
48886
1075
366
4421
-3.0
-3.2
0.0
2.3
0.5
-0.1
-0.2
16.2
1.7
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
-0.3
-3.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
0.4
-0.6
1.1
5386
6376
5130
5278
5165
4885
4722
4622
4458
4336
4170
-0.5
0.1
-0.9
-0.6
Non-Energy Uses
10491
13013
17579
19188
18818
18033
18000
17912
17395
17309
17282
5.3
0.7
-0.4
-0.2
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
50483
52293
51879
52226
50047
48683
47575
46820
46878
47305
47811
0.3
-0.4
-0.5
0.0
14829
10303
4526
10299
11099
14256
15506
10622
4884
10143
11494
15151
12206
8224
3982
11518
13120
15036
13009
8989
4020
11174
12773
15270
12882
8775
4107
10495
11768
14901
12495
8282
4213
10397
11254
14538
12214
7953
4261
10385
10671
14305
11821
7661
4160
10458
10418
14123
11790
7590
4200
10597
10297
14193
12019
7649
4370
10818
10134
14334
12195
7601
4594
11257
9821
14539
-1.9
-2.2
-1.3
1.1
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.3
-0.9
-1.1
-0.1
-0.5
-1.0
0.4
-0.1
-1.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.2
0.4
0.4
-0.4
0.1
1330
16482
21011
8408
2893
358
0
1515
18021
20346
8986
2981
445
0
1270
16158
22378
9189
2106
779
0
1258
15810
21045
10045
2439
1626
4
1258
14806
19248
9742
2461
2517
14
1197
14321
18292
9759
2372
2719
23
1159
14046
17018
10029
2329
2958
36
1079
13729
16175
10239
2490
3059
48
1078
13734
15644
10715
2632
3000
76
1051
13796
15497
11126
2689
3044
103
1004
13872
15633
11356
2770
3049
127
-0.5
-0.2
0.6
0.9
-3.1
8.1
-6.9
-0.1
-0.9
-1.5
0.6
1.6
12.4
141.5
-0.8
-0.5
-1.2
0.3
-0.6
1.6
10.3
-0.7
-0.1
-0.4
0.6
0.9
0.2
6.5
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
684
1231
2071
4726
7338
7998
8536
8946
9339
10240
11141
11.7
13.5
1.5
1.3
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
218.8
212.6
96.6
116.0
175.2
57.6
8.9
22.9
20.6
21.1
44.1
7.9
29.5
213.5
107.5
106.0
180.4
66.3
8.8
24.3
18.6
18.5
43.9
7.9
25.2
195.1
95.7
99.4
162.4
55.9
8.5
23.2
17.2
16.2
41.3
7.9
24.9
186.3
90.7
95.7
154.5
52.3
8.0
22.8
16.1
15.0
40.2
7.6
24.3
176.3
84.9
91.4
146.6
49.3
7.7
21.5
15.4
13.2
39.5
6.1
23.6
159.9
71.3
88.5
130.4
37.6
7.4
19.4
15.1
12.2
38.9
5.9
23.5
144.1
56.7
87.3
114.9
23.6
7.1
18.7
14.9
11.6
39.0
5.6
23.6
138.6
51.7
86.9
113.4
22.5
6.9
18.7
14.9
11.1
39.2
1.6
23.7
137.1
49.8
87.2
111.9
21.0
6.6
18.7
15.2
10.8
39.6
1.4
23.7
-0.3
168.4
51.8
11.2
26.7
18.9
17.5
42.3
7.1
43.3
221.2
107.0
114.2
178.4
55.4
12.4
29.3
17.9
18.2
45.1
7.9
35.0
0.4
1.1
-2.2
-1.5
0.9
1.9
0.4
1.0
-3.8
0
-0.9
-0.1
-1.5
-0.8
-0.3
-0.5
0.2
-1.8
-2.6
-0.7
0.0
-1.7
0
-1.0
-1.2
-0.8
-1.0
-1.3
-0.9
-0.8
-1.1
-2.1
-0.4
-2.5
-0.5
0
-1.3
-2.6
-0.2
-1.3
-4.2
-0.8
-0.7
-0.1
-1.0
0.0
-7.2
0.0
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
101.00
102.20
98.20
98.60
90.10
86.00
81.40
73.80
66.50
64.00
63.30
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
128
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Netherlands: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
15.864
513.6
149.1
2.20
38.7
16.306
548.4
150.5
2.16
38.4
16.575
588.4
147.7
2.02
30.7
16.951
636.8
140.3
2.02
32.5
17.219
688.1
123.3
1.91
31.2
17.424
727.5
112.3
1.89
40.6
17.578
767.2
104.6
1.83
47.1
17.650
811.6
97.8
1.64
43.9
17.620
866.0
90.9
1.46
42.2
17.504
927.4
84.7
1.44
45.5
17.358
994.4
79.3
1.42
51.9
0.4
1.4
-0.1
-0.9
0.4
1.6
-1.8
-0.5
0.2
1.1
-1.6
-0.5
-0.1
1.3
-1.4
-1.2
48.1
9.4
61.6
11.2
71.7
12.2
91.1
14.3
102.4
14.9
104.3
14.3
108.0
14.1
110.1
13.6
112.5
13.0
116.9
12.6
121.1
12.2
4.1
3.6
0.5
0.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
51.3
38.2
100.1
94.1
95.7
50.0
40.8
75.0
106.4
99.0
49.6
42.6
74.9
96.8
88.5
47.4
41.1
69.6
84.7
74.9
42.0
40.2
64.4
79.4
67.5
38.0
38.5
59.4
74.9
60.6
35.0
36.6
54.3
70.7
55.8
33.3
35.4
51.2
66.0
51.6
32.4
34.6
49.4
61.5
47.2
32.2
33.9
47.4
58.0
42.5
32.1
33.3
-2.8
0.6
-0.1
-0.3
1.1
-0.7
-2.3
-2.7
-1.7
-0.6
-1.6
-1.2
-2.1
-1.8
-0.9
-1.1
-1.3
-1.8
-0.4
-0.5
0.40
2.09
1.80
1.84
1.58
2.97
0.38
2.11
1.89
1.77
1.59
2.98
0.37
2.09
1.87
1.79
1.61
2.93
0.38
2.02
1.87
1.66
1.45
2.87
0.33
1.96
1.80
1.64
1.38
2.77
0.31
1.93
1.82
1.55
1.34
2.77
0.28
1.88
1.76
1.48
1.23
2.76
0.21
1.83
1.64
1.44
1.17
2.75
0.13
1.80
1.59
1.41
1.12
2.75
0.12
1.78
1.56
1.38
1.09
2.74
0.11
1.76
1.53
1.35
1.10
2.73
-0.6
0.0
0.4
-0.2
0.2
-0.1
-1.4
-0.7
-0.4
-0.9
-1.5
-0.6
-1.5
-0.4
-0.2
-1.0
-1.1
0.0
-4.7
-0.3
-0.7
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
1.3
0.0
2.3
0.1
3.9
2.2
8.8
5.1
14.3
10.1
16.0
10.5
17.5
10.8
18.6
11.1
19.5
11.2
21.2
11.8
22.8
12.6
89631
3926
24276
2641
54606
3203
142
829
8
0
0
20499
485
496
37
446
13
0
19518
7372
0
4200
13645
688
985
0
0
100219
3997
23500
2262
61588
6683
88
2067
34
0
0
22491
486
1307
37
1219
51
0
20698
10754
0
4195
14706
674
1123
0
0
118140
3969
22588
1253
77566
8606
105
3993
60
0
0
25815
486
2394
37
2269
88
0
22935
10394
0
4183
16896
655
1201
0
0
132991
3967
38199
1068
66776
11322
105
11431
123
0
0
32456
486
4788
37
4619
131
0
27182
9993
0
5191
19707
515
1769
0
0
130483
3971
37703
1164
46594
12956
105
27233
756
0
0
38110
486
10450
37
9624
788
0
27175
10042
227
6014
18390
692
2078
0
0
131124
4094
38259
1307
40193
13582
106
32563
1021
0
0
40750
481
12856
37
11793
1025
0
27413
9206
227
6014
18307
981
2111
0
0
136192
4973
32034
1488
48336
13689
106
34532
1034
0
0
40379
586
13434
37
12359
1037
0
26359
8955
227
5615
17650
978
2117
0
0
139862
11527
20315
2427
53209
15273
106
35950
1056
0
0
41945
1367
13956
37
12862
1057
0
26622
9969
585
5348
18208
963
2104
0
0
144878
11527
13664
2514
60491
14765
106
40683
1129
0
0
43487
1367
15573
37
14403
1132
0
26547
12032
2775
3471
19642
899
2535
0
0
148270
11475
12747
2765
55106
16154
106
48281
1197
440
0
44902
1367
18250
37
16866
1202
144
25286
12635
2376
3471
18427
1025
2363
0
0
151196
11475
12487
2617
49151
16289
106
57276
1264
530
0
46633
1367
21088
37
19605
1272
173
24178
12928
2459
3471
16925
1400
2382
0
0
1.0
0.4
0.0
2.3
5.3
-1.6
-0.7
2.5
-5.0
0.4
4.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
21.2
2.4
28.9
3.2
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.6
0.0
1.9
15.9
2.5
0.1
0.0
15.5
2.5
24.5
2.8
0.0
0.0
1.7
-0.3
-0.3
-1.1
0.0
0.0
3.7
-0.7
0.9
-0.4
0.6
3.5
5.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
4.3
-4.6
2.9
0.1
0.9
0.0
2.6
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
4.3
2.3
0.0
2.3
1.0
0.0
-0.4
1.9
12.7
-2.4
-0.2
1.8
0.6
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
47.9
48.8
50.6
44.9
37.3
35.1
36.9
36.5
36.7
36.4
35.8
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
41.7
37.6
0.0
9.0
4.4
4.7
41.5
29.4
0.0
12.8
4.0
8.9
44.6
33.2
0.0
14.2
3.4
10.8
43.2
33.0
0.0
20.3
3.0
17.3
42.3
34.1
1.1
34.5
3.0
31.5
42.4
33.4
1.3
39.2
3.1
36.1
43.7
32.3
1.7
39.9
3.7
36.2
44.4
36.7
3.8
45.7
8.2
37.5
44.0
46.7
3.6
47.1
8.0
39.1
43.4
44.6
3.5
52.4
7.7
44.6
41.4
40.0
3.4
57.5
7.6
49.9
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
184.4
11.2
143.3
16.1
13.0
0.7
194.8
11.8
151.5
16.7
14.2
0.7
197.7
12.1
154.0
17.0
13.9
0.7
204.2
12.7
157.1
18.1
15.7
0.7
211.0
13.3
160.0
19.3
17.7
0.7
220.1
13.7
164.7
20.6
20.3
0.8
229.5
14.1
169.2
22.1
23.3
0.8
236.7
14.7
172.2
23.8
25.2
0.9
244.1
15.2
175.1
25.6
27.3
0.9
249.8
15.7
177.6
26.6
29.1
0.9
255.5
16.1
179.9
27.5
31.1
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.7
-0.5
0.7
0.9
0.4
1.3
2.5
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.6
1.4
2.8
1.2
0.5
0.7
0.3
1.1
1.5
0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
125.5
79.6
4.5
41.4
132.4
84.2
5.9
42.4
122.6
76.3
5.9
40.3
135.8
85.8
6.6
43.5
150.6
96.3
7.4
46.9
160.7
101.8
8.1
50.8
171.5
107.6
8.9
55.0
176.4
110.6
9.1
56.7
181.4
113.7
9.4
58.4
186.0
116.4
9.7
59.9
190.5
119.2
9.9
61.4
-0.2
-0.4
2.7
-0.3
2.1
2.4
2.2
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.9
1.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
14255
244
5741
4380
183
3382
3260
15151
250
5720
5091
171
3712
2060
15036
257
6036
4941
182
3463
1580
15269
263
5707
5284
192
3653
1700
14900
264
4973
5728
203
3550
1820
14537
261
4506
5840
216
3518
1960
14304
259
4226
5917
224
3466
2100
14121
263
4150
5883
224
3386
2150
14192
268
4086
5910
221
3487
2200
14332
271
4053
5936
217
3631
2240
14537
276
4046
5983
213
3792
2270
0.5
0.6
0.5
1.2
-0.1
0.2
-7.0
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-1.9
1.5
1.1
0.2
1.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.2
-1.6
0.3
1.0
-0.2
1.5
0.0
0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.5
0.4
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
2.8
0.1
-0.7
-7.2
3.6
10.4
-3.0
17.0
22.8
-10.8
0.0
2.3
0.0
17.0
0.0
17.7
21.1
0.0
1.6
3.5
0.0
0.0
2.2
-0.5
2.0
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
129
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Poland: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
79969
71299
1096
3317
0
4257
181
4073
0
0
3
78943
68857
1181
3887
0
5019
189
4806
12
0
11
67824
55381
1172
3695
0
7576
251
7166
143
2
13
67942
53720
1016
3613
0
9592
298
8855
371
27
41
75877
55964
990
7477
0
11447
335
9844
1116
64
89
81247
50502
907
13245
2985
13609
331
11574
1375
165
164
77845
37771
839
13018
11158
15060
414
12655
1469
239
282
80276
37252
616
12170
14133
16105
434
13372
1610
351
338
83391
36490
326
12851
16958
16766
454
13841
1694
387
390
84597
36803
21
13270
16958
17545
469
14474
1750
417
436
82764
34603
0
13242
16958
17962
491
14754
1867
408
442
-1.6
-2.5
0.7
1.1
0.0
5.9
3.3
5.8
78.7
0.0
16.3
1.1
0.1
-1.7
7.3
0.0
4.2
2.9
3.2
22.8
38.8
20.8
0.3
0.3
-3.9
-0.4
-1.6 -100.0
5.7
0.1
0.0
2.1
2.8
0.9
2.1
0.9
2.5
0.8
2.8
1.2
14.2
2.7
12.2
2.3
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
9585
-16353
19879
18450
1429
6607
-548
16437
-13039
21971
18412
3559
8531
-962
32114
-2814
25735
23567
2168
8874
-116
41586
2342
27473
24827
2646
11495
-386
37817
249
27848
25090
2758
7929
-273
35889
2986
27412
24615
2797
4522
-251
39891
5207
27288
24460
2828
5979
-223
39100
2403
27205
24343
2862
7792
-179
37442
865
27045
24134
2910
7643
-30
37879
631
27457
24501
2956
7872
-83
40050
2204
27206
24259
2947
8653
-53
12.9
-16.1
2.6
2.5
4.3
3.0
-14.3
1.6
0.0
0.8
0.6
2.4
-1.1
8.9
0.5
35.5
-0.2
-0.3
0.3
-2.8
-2.0
0.0
-4.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.9
-6.9
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
89818
56291
19862
9964
0
-548
4250
93076
54612
22233
12237
0
-962
4956
101704
54608
26400
12807
0
-116
8006
109270
56062
28234
15107
0
-386
10254
113399
56214
28548
15400
0
-273
13510
116816
53488
28009
17756
2985
-251
14828
117402
42978
27806
18984
11158
-223
16699
119024
39655
27490
19941
14133
-179
17984
120465
37355
27032
20465
16958
-30
18685
122094
37433
27151
21087
16958
-83
19547
122419
36806
26875
21831
16958
-53
20002
1.3
-0.3
2.9
2.5
0.0
-14.3
6.5
1.1
0.3
0.8
1.9
0.0
8.9
5.4
0.3
-2.6
-0.3
2.1
0.0
-2.0
2.1
0.2
-0.8
-0.2
0.7
2.1
-6.9
0.9
62.7
22.1
11.1
0.0
4.7
58.7
23.9
13.1
0.0
5.3
53.7
26.0
12.6
0.0
7.9
51.3
25.8
13.8
0.0
9.4
49.6
25.2
13.6
0.0
11.9
45.8
24.0
15.2
2.6
12.7
36.6
23.7
16.2
9.5
14.2
33.3
23.1
16.8
11.9
15.1
31.0
22.4
17.0
14.1
15.5
30.7
22.2
17.3
13.9
16.0
30.1
22.0
17.8
13.9
16.3
143148
27978
155331
28523
157061
26896
180512
28573
204760
32148
214708
33577
219831
33624
233340
40220
246030
44356
267113
50666
280114
59524
0.9
-0.4
2.7
1.8
0.7
0.5
1.2
2.9
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
36485
35108
245
975
158
0
0
38634
36212
184
1692
546
0
0
38214
34213
171
2065
1766
0
0
39565
36062
184
1091
2228
0
0
41078
36890
137
1720
2331
0
0
39999
35363
74
2062
2500
0
0
31975
26656
55
2314
2951
0
0
29516
23155
111
2562
3689
0
0
28239
22043
111
2759
3326
0
0
30586
23359
171
3174
3882
0
0
30565
23548
90
2911
4016
0
0
0.5
-0.3
-3.5
7.8
27.3
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.8
-2.2
-1.8
2.8
0.0
0.0
-2.5
-3.2
-8.8
3.0
2.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
2.6
1.2
1.6
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
33708
19825
0
4179
9705
31669
19521
54
3465
8629
39240
24892
886
3712
9750
41185
26295
1136
4315
9439
42962
26581
1702
4277
10402
45713
26012
1767
4923
13011
53102
25798
1790
5139
20376
55790
25459
1805
5314
23212
57359
24943
1748
5088
25581
56748
25005
1744
5008
24992
56486
24718
1775
5514
24479
1.5
2.3
0.0
-1.2
0.0
0.9
0.7
6.7
1.4
0.6
2.1
-0.3
0.5
1.9
7.0
0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.4
0.9
Energy Branch Consumption
6664
6111
6618
6949
7538
7621
7191
7551
7721
8074
8632
-0.1
1.3
-0.5
0.9
Non-Energy Uses
4357
4545
4775
5477
6045
6225
6375
6524
6624
6641
6583
0.9
2.4
0.5
0.2
55586
58199
66319
72977
75857
77244
78116
79620
80624
81433
81474
1.8
1.4
0.3
0.2
18984
13512
5472
17191
9623
9789
16593
11400
5193
18343
10825
12439
15384
10540
4844
21009
12336
17589
18521
12573
5948
21792
13133
19531
20014
13575
6439
21788
13723
20332
20943
13932
7011
22506
13466
20329
21599
14312
7286
22694
13239
20584
22477
14933
7544
23329
13124
20690
22863
15068
7795
23618
13137
21006
23409
15533
7876
23660
13315
21049
23578
15588
7990
23530
13200
21165
-2.1
-2.5
-1.2
2.0
2.5
6.0
2.7
2.6
2.9
0.4
1.1
1.5
0.8
0.5
1.2
0.4
-0.4
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.1
13466
15341
7520
8482
6886
3890
0
11474
17711
8733
9064
7056
4162
0
13393
20488
9485
10188
6968
5796
0
13142
22711
11187
11798
7062
7076
0
12752
22744
10330
13637
7365
9029
0
11697
22352
11691
14450
7685
9369
1
10232
22129
12402
15076
7864
10409
3
10482
21797
13001
15717
8058
10558
6
10104
21420
13118
16603
8327
11040
11
9475
21457
13157
17813
8496
11017
17
8870
21397
13784
18228
8266
10908
22
-0.1
2.9
2.3
1.8
0.1
4.1
0.0
-0.5
1.1
0.9
3.0
0.6
4.5
53.6
-2.2
-0.3
1.8
1.0
0.7
1.4
24.0
-0.7
-0.2
0.5
1.0
0.2
0.2
10.1
Annual % Change
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
3764
4254
6418
8517
12125
13315
14958
16004
16700
17380
17772
5.5
6.6
2.1
0.9
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
386.5
400.8
209.7
191.1
313.4
163.7
8.4
31.4
39.0
21.9
49.0
18.8
68.6
422.8
230.0
192.8
331.4
169.6
9.5
40.8
36.7
20.8
54.1
26.0
65.4
425.4
233.4
191.9
329.8
170.1
10.8
39.7
35.2
19.3
54.8
28.3
67.2
418.6
229.7
188.9
322.8
165.4
10.8
42.1
33.0
17.0
54.5
29.1
66.7
371.3
189.9
181.5
280.4
129.5
10.1
41.9
28.7
15.4
55.0
26.1
64.8
338.3
157.6
180.7
247.1
95.4
9.6
42.9
29.7
14.5
55.1
27.1
64.1
318.0
139.2
178.8
226.5
78.3
9.0
40.0
29.5
13.6
56.1
27.1
64.4
291.1
114.9
176.2
217.0
71.7
8.6
38.4
29.2
13.0
56.0
9.0
65.1
260.4
85.5
174.9
187.4
44.2
7.9
37.9
28.9
12.3
56.1
8.1
64.9
0.4
302.1
166.1
10.2
52.4
27.4
18.3
27.6
15.8
68.6
391.7
221.9
169.7
301.6
169.1
7.7
37.7
31.0
20.6
35.5
18.8
71.3
0.4
-0.1
-1.9
-5.0
3.6
1.8
5.9
1.7
0.0
0
0.6
1.1
0.0
0.5
0.4
2.5
2.4
-1.0
-1.3
1.1
4.2
-0.2
0
-1.3
-2.0
-0.6
-1.6
-2.7
-0.7
0.5
-2.0
-2.2
0.0
-0.8
-0.4
0
-1.8
-3.9
-0.2
-2.0
-5.2
-1.2
-0.5
0.1
-1.1
0.1
-5.7
0.0
0
84.40
85.50
87.50
92.30
92.90
91.40
81.10
73.90
69.40
63.50
56.80
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
130
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Poland: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
38.654
241.9
371.3
3.36
10.6
38.174
281.6
330.5
3.24
17.6
38.167
354.6
286.8
3.08
31.5
38.369
417.0
262.0
3.03
38.0
38.395
474.3
239.1
2.91
33.3
38.121
520.2
224.6
2.76
30.6
37.565
564.2
208.1
2.39
33.9
36.857
606.6
196.2
2.08
32.8
36.112
646.1
186.4
1.88
31.0
35.343
676.0
180.6
1.78
30.9
34.543
697.2
175.6
1.53
32.6
-0.1
3.9
-2.5
-0.9
0.1
3.0
-1.8
-0.6
-0.2
1.7
-1.4
-2.0
-0.4
1.1
-0.8
-2.2
36.6
15.1
49.7
17.7
74.7
21.1
94.2
22.6
107.5
22.7
119.8
23.0
131.4
23.3
137.8
22.7
143.8
22.3
151.3
22.4
156.2
22.4
7.4
3.7
2.0
0.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
31.8
21.8
61.3
92.5
100.8
29.2
28.8
36.0
86.4
99.2
27.1
29.7
34.7
75.0
90.8
26.5
29.1
32.2
65.1
83.5
24.5
28.3
30.5
60.8
74.6
22.0
27.0
28.6
56.1
67.5
20.3
25.8
27.4
53.4
62.1
19.4
24.9
25.9
50.5
58.3
18.8
24.2
25.5
48.2
56.4
18.4
23.7
25.0
46.4
54.2
18.1
23.3
-9.7
-1.4
-0.1
-1.6
3.1
-1.1
-2.8
-1.7
-1.0
-0.5
-1.2
-1.5
-2.1
-1.9
-0.9
-0.7
-0.9
-1.1
-0.6
-0.5
0.70
2.26
2.76
1.59
1.91
2.82
0.68
2.14
2.27
1.69
1.90
2.85
0.65
2.13
2.04
1.86
1.78
2.79
0.62
2.09
2.20
1.68
1.59
2.77
0.56
1.96
1.99
1.61
1.40
2.69
0.52
1.90
2.01
1.47
1.26
2.68
0.40
1.80
1.94
1.26
1.16
2.67
0.28
1.79
1.91
1.27
1.10
2.67
0.22
1.73
1.75
1.25
1.03
2.67
0.19
1.68
1.64
1.24
0.97
2.66
0.11
1.66
1.61
1.23
0.94
2.65
-0.8
-0.6
-3.0
1.5
-0.7
-0.1
-1.5
-0.8
-0.3
-1.4
-2.3
-0.3
-3.3
-0.8
-0.2
-2.4
-1.9
-0.1
-6.1
-0.4
-0.9
-0.1
-1.1
0.0
6.4
0.0
6.9
0.4
9.2
6.0
11.3
7.0
15.4
10.0
16.6
10.6
18.5
10.7
19.3
10.9
19.8
10.6
20.3
10.7
20.5
10.9
143174
0
135888
1916
2707
552
2106
5
0
0
0
27648
0
813
809
4
0
0
26835
9354
0
24918
787
496
633
0
0
155359
0
142160
2757
6357
1749
2201
135
0
0
0
28929
0
1015
932
83
0
0
27914
9826
0
25406
1329
498
680
0
0
157089
0
136592
2892
6473
6548
2920
1664
0
0
0
31034
0
2199
1019
1180
0
0
28835
8116
0
26327
1331
494
683
0
0
180512
0
155422
860
7066
9380
3459
4319
6
0
0
34872
0
3582
1104
2472
6
0
31290
8316
0
26719
2823
446
1302
0
0
204760
0
165453
673
10960
10759
3893
12972
49
0
0
40239
0
7827
1261
6515
51
0
32412
9333
229
24936
5702
480
1294
0
0
214708
12732
156315
385
13171
11888
3855
15987
377
0
0
44393
1671
9946
1265
8331
350
0
32775
9008
229
22842
8281
358
1294
0
0
219831
48565
117936
301
16261
14302
4812
17084
571
0
0
48758
6315
10839
1467
8843
530
0
31603
9804
229
20417
9643
242
1301
0
0
233340
61641
109855
649
18027
18395
5051
18717
1005
0
0
50886
8000
11880
1515
9385
980
0
31006
9980
2948
18689
10191
379
1748
0
0
246030
74059
109047
605
19550
16397
5279
19697
1396
0
0
53700
9600
12681
1554
9742
1386
0
31419
10971
4628
18961
10277
367
1813
0
0
267113
74059
123189
1010
22486
19119
5453
20344
1452
0
0
57083
9600
13036
1619
9972
1445
0
34447
12677
6621
20913
11168
355
2011
0
0
280114
74059
135679
510
20322
20605
5707
21711
1521
0
0
58084
9600
13657
1681
10460
1516
0
34827
11836
10994
22092
10115
277
2342
0
0
0.9
0.0
0.1
4.2
9.1
28.1
3.3
78.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
10.5
2.3
76.6
0.0
0.0
0.7
-1.4
0.0
0.6
5.4
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
2.7
0.0
1.9
-13.6
5.4
5.1
2.9
22.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
0.0
13.5
2.2
18.6
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
-0.5
15.7
-0.3
6.6
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
-3.3
-7.7
4.0
2.9
2.1
2.8
27.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
0.0
3.3
1.5
3.1
26.5
0.0
-0.3
0.5
0.0
-2.0
5.4
-6.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.2
2.1
0.7
2.7
1.1
1.8
0.9
1.2
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
2.1
1.2
0.7
0.8
5.4
0.0
0.5
0.9
21.3
0.4
0.2
0.7
3.0
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
53.8
56.0
52.3
54.3
53.5
51.1
48.0
47.8
47.5
48.0
48.2
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
33.2
16.1
0.0
1.9
0.0
1.9
34.1
16.8
0.0
2.6
0.0
2.6
34.3
17.6
0.0
7.1
0.0
7.1
37.5
21.0
0.0
9.5
0.0
9.5
39.3
25.1
1.2
13.5
0.0
13.5
39.1
23.3
0.8
20.9
5.9
15.0
40.0
23.4
1.1
38.8
22.1
16.7
42.8
25.8
12.8
44.9
26.4
18.5
44.3
26.7
18.6
47.5
30.1
17.4
46.6
28.7
24.5
45.1
27.7
17.4
49.8
24.9
38.6
44.1
26.4
17.7
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
215.3
31.7
153.6
27.0
2.8
0.2
256.4
29.3
201.2
20.9
4.8
0.2
354.5
21.6
303.3
21.0
8.4
0.2
387.6
21.8
331.6
23.9
10.2
0.2
423.9
21.9
362.2
27.2
12.4
0.2
456.8
22.7
386.0
33.0
14.8
0.2
492.2
23.5
410.7
40.1
17.6
0.3
516.8
24.1
428.9
43.4
20.1
0.3
542.5
24.7
447.7
46.9
22.9
0.3
557.5
25.1
458.0
48.5
25.6
0.3
572.7
25.5
468.4
50.1
28.5
0.3
5.1
-3.8
7.0
-2.5
11.7
-1.5
1.8
0.1
1.8
2.6
4.0
1.7
1.5
0.7
1.3
4.0
3.6
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.7
1.1
2.4
0.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
130.3
75.0
54.0
1.2
162.2
111.8
50.0
0.4
259.7
210.8
48.7
0.2
307.2
254.1
52.9
0.2
340.5
281.4
58.8
0.3
367.8
301.5
66.0
0.3
397.1
322.7
74.0
0.4
414.1
336.1
77.6
0.4
431.8
350.2
81.2
0.4
439.9
356.2
83.3
0.4
448.2
362.4
85.4
0.4
7.1
10.9
-1.0
-16.8
2.7
2.9
1.9
2.9
1.6
1.4
2.3
3.1
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
9700
417
6093
2369
540
274
60
12164
378
6739
4254
468
319
50
17337
292
8783
7397
355
508
20
19219
295
9339
8601
382
600
20
20017
296
9341
9277
413
688
20
19997
300
8959
9544
445
747
30
20242
303
8821
9834
486
795
30
20343
305
8789
9877
499
871
30
20660
309
8862
10001
518
967
30
20698
309
8876
9958
524
1027
30
20811
310
8937
9964
530
1067
30
6.0
-3.5
3.7
12.1
-4.1
6.4
-10.5
0.0
1.4
0.2
0.6
2.3
1.5
3.1
1.9
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.6
0.6
1.7
1.5
1.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
1.5
0.4
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
131
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Portugal: Reference scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
3891
0
0
45
0
3846
974
2770
14
18
70
3615
0
0
0
0
3615
407
2967
152
23
66
5629
0
48
0
0
5581
1388
3137
790
76
190
6062
0
48
0
0
6014
950
3513
1107
247
197
6798
0
48
228
0
6521
968
3645
1181
520
207
7669
0
48
247
0
7374
986
3770
1462
953
203
8427
0
48
160
0
8219
1023
3939
1840
1216
202
9188
0
48
186
0
8954
1085
4017
2022
1362
467
9425
0
48
223
0
9154
1118
4066
2043
1444
484
9600
0
48
179
0
9373
1110
4065
2065
1650
483
9767
0
48
171
0
9549
1145
4004
2087
1829
483
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
21880
3914
15847
12230
3618
2039
80
24768
3225
17063
13716
3347
3893
587
18734
1629
12583
11900
684
4505
226
18330
1657
12050
11448
602
3940
545
17390
1157
11461
10895
566
4078
385
15490
136
10934
10391
543
3561
445
14486
71
10838
10270
568
2647
448
14285
29
10943
10316
627
2360
411
14083
28
10966
10308
658
2085
428
14083
27
11073
10366
707
1928
450
14039
26
11199
10443
756
1700
476
-1.5
-8.4
-2.3
-0.3
-15.3
8.2
10.9
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
25107
3805
15297
2078
0
80
3846
27402
3349
16101
3751
0
587
3615
24296
1657
12303
4489
0
226
5622
23815
1657
11523
3937
0
545
6153
23620
1157
10951
4297
0
385
6831
22604
136
10445
3789
0
445
7789
22370
71
10365
2784
0
448
8702
22916
29
10468
2513
0
411
9495
22951
28
10495
2270
0
428
9730
23105
27
10587
2062
0
450
9978
23220
26
10713
1818
0
476
10187
15.2
60.9
8.3
0.0
15.3
12.2
58.8
13.7
0.0
13.2
6.8
50.6
18.5
0.0
23.1
7.0
48.4
16.5
0.0
25.8
4.9
46.4
18.2
0.0
28.9
0.6
46.2
16.8
0.0
34.5
0.3
46.3
12.4
0.0
38.9
0.1
45.7
11.0
0.0
41.4
0.1
45.7
9.9
0.0
42.4
0.1
45.8
8.9
0.0
43.2
0.1
46.1
7.8
0.0
43.9
43364
5435
46180
6125
53682
5891
50169
5695
53684
5729
53746
5568
57243
6148
61595
6734
63139
6775
65273
6960
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
6520
3198
1682
1215
356
69
0
7913
3319
1793
2309
428
65
0
5783
1597
570
2775
662
180
0
5331
1627
334
2367
813
188
0
5322
1128
208
2809
979
199
0
3800
107
48
2301
1145
199
0
3062
42
50
1400
1371
199
0
3354
0
0
1152
1737
465
0
3259
0
0
925
1852
482
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
12916
12468
0
0
449
13875
13875
0
0
0
12377
12078
300
0
0
11926
11537
389
0
0
11539
10983
556
0
0
11043
10478
565
0
0
10935
10357
577
0
1
10990
10404
585
0
1
Energy Branch Consumption
1028
1235
1242
1176
1122
1067
1079
Non-Energy Uses
2334
2505
1741
1665
1724
1676
1625
17745
18958
18081
17920
17794
17751
6293
4156
2137
2804
2106
6542
5868
3967
1901
3224
2759
7107
5390
3572
1818
2982
2413
7296
5412
3574
1838
2915
2321
7271
5537
3744
1793
2806
2346
7106
466
10539
873
3299
134
2434
0
16
10762
1307
3983
328
2563
0
50
9238
1581
4290
338
2584
0
29
8753
1439
4325
418
2955
0
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
3538
3860
4475
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
84.2
60.4
21.7
2.5
11.4
2.0
3.2
19.6
6.2
17.6
89.2
41.0
48.2
64.4
24.9
3.1
8.4
2.3
4.2
21.4
6.5
18.3
72.9
28.0
44.9
49.8
14.9
2.6
6.1
2.6
2.5
21.1
5.1
18.0
136.90
145.00
118.50
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
3.8
1.9
989.0 -100.0
174.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.8
1.6
3.6
-3.5
1.3
1.5
49.2
4.1
15.3
21.1
10.5
0.9
2.2
0.0
0.0
-3.5
0.0
2.3
0.6
0.8
4.5
8.9
-0.3
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.1
0.6
2.1
4.5
-0.7
-3.4
-0.9
-0.9
-1.9
-1.0
5.5
-1.8
-24.4
-0.6
-0.6
0.0
-4.2
1.5
-0.2
-4.9
0.2
0.1
1.4
-2.2
0.3
-0.3
-8.0
-2.2
8.0
0.0
10.9
3.9
-0.3
-3.5
-1.2
-0.4
0.0
5.5
2.0
-0.5
-24.4
-0.5
-4.2
0.0
1.5
2.5
0.2
-4.9
0.2
-2.1
0.0
0.3
0.8
66565
7054
2.2
0.8
0.0
-0.3
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
3198
0
1
760
1955
482
0
3031
0
0
522
2027
482
0
-1.2
-6.7
-10.3
8.6
6.4
10.1
0.0
-0.8
-3.4
-9.6
0.1
4.0
1.0
0.0
10969
10394
574
0
1
11020
10452
566
0
1
11104
10529
574
0
1
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.9
6.4
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.6
0.4
0.0
11.7
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
2.2
1150
1146
1157
1164
1.9
-1.0
-0.4
0.4
1610
1586
1608
1686
-2.9
-0.1
-0.6
0.2
17995
18280
18468
18643
18731
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.2
5537
3772
1765
2848
2281
7086
5535
3781
1754
2972
2316
7171
5575
3814
1761
3079
2383
7244
5577
3796
1781
3105
2370
7416
5568
3754
1814
3121
2411
7542
5587
3728
1859
3104
2378
7662
-1.5
-1.5
-1.6
0.6
1.4
1.1
0.3
0.5
-0.1
-0.6
-0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.1
-0.2
0.6
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.3
29
8298
1354
4466
523
3123
0
29
8066
1339
4545
550
3221
1
29
8044
1242
4799
623
3257
1
29
8244
1203
5084
702
3015
2
28
8295
1188
5227
748
2976
6
27
8347
1158
5412
791
2899
9
26
8390
1154
5536
833
2779
13
-20.0
-1.3
6.1
2.7
9.7
0.6
-8.8
-5.3
-1.1
-1.5
0.4
4.5
1.9
47.6
0.0
-0.3
-0.9
0.7
1.8
0.4
19.9
-0.6
0.2
-0.4
0.7
1.5
-0.8
12.6
5654
6056
6840
7661
7979
8086
8248
8293
2.4
3.1
2.4
0.4
66.5
26.1
40.4
46.2
13.3
2.5
5.1
2.3
2.1
20.8
4.8
15.5
63.6
24.8
38.7
43.1
11.9
2.3
5.0
2.1
1.9
19.8
5.2
15.3
56.6
18.8
37.7
36.3
6.0
2.2
4.7
2.1
1.6
19.7
5.1
15.2
52.7
15.8
36.8
33.6
3.6
2.1
4.5
2.0
1.5
19.9
4.2
14.9
52.7
15.2
37.4
33.2
2.7
2.1
5.1
1.9
1.4
20.1
4.0
15.5
52.1
14.8
37.4
32.8
2.2
2.1
4.8
1.8
1.3
20.6
3.8
15.5
51.9
14.4
37.5
32.5
1.8
2.1
4.7
1.7
1.3
20.9
3.7
15.7
51.2
13.7
37.4
32.0
1.2
2.1
4.7
1.5
1.2
21.2
3.5
15.6
-1.4
-1.9
-3.7
0.3
-6.0
2.5
-2.6
0.7
-1.8
0.2
0
-1.4
-1.2
-1.5
-1.4
-2.2
-1.1
-2.1
-1.8
-2.4
-0.6
0.1
-1.6
0
-1.9
-4.4
-0.5
-2.5
-11.2
-0.9
-1.0
-0.7
-2.7
0.0
-2.1
-0.3
0
-0.1
-0.7
0.1
-0.2
-5.3
-0.1
0.2
-1.3
-0.8
0.3
-0.9
0.2
0
108.10
103.30
91.90
85.60
85.60
84.70
84.30
83.20
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.4
-0.1
-28.1 -100.0
-13.2
-22.4
-6.7
-4.8
3.4
2.0
0.0
4.5
0.0
0.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
132
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Portugal: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
10.195
162.1
154.9
2.41
84.9
10.529
168.9
162.2
2.35
88.5
10.638
172.7
140.7
2.05
75.4
10.689
171.6
138.8
1.94
75.1
10.728
182.0
129.8
1.82
71.9
10.760
198.9
113.7
1.61
66.9
10.780
219.4
101.9
1.50
63.2
10.786
238.3
96.2
1.45
60.9
10.767
255.6
89.8
1.43
59.9
10.707
272.1
84.9
1.41
59.5
10.598
287.9
80.7
1.38
59.0
0.4
0.6
-1.0
-1.6
0.1
0.5
-0.8
-1.2
0.0
1.9
-2.4
-1.9
-0.1
1.4
-1.2
-0.4
18.1
11.2
24.4
14.4
27.5
16.0
32.5
18.9
35.6
19.6
38.6
19.4
40.5
18.5
42.2
17.7
44.4
17.4
46.2
17.0
47.9
16.6
4.3
2.6
1.3
0.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
36.6
60.7
95.0
107.6
120.8
36.0
55.8
92.3
94.3
97.9
38.0
63.7
93.3
92.9
94.5
36.4
62.3
90.5
84.0
90.0
33.8
60.6
86.8
77.8
79.3
30.3
57.9
83.1
73.3
72.2
27.8
55.6
79.7
69.8
67.9
26.4
53.9
76.4
65.5
62.5
25.6
52.5
73.4
61.8
59.3
25.2
51.3
70.6
58.1
55.1
24.7
50.3
-0.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.4
0.5
-0.2
-1.2
-0.8
-1.2
-0.5
-0.9
-1.4
-2.2
-2.0
-0.8
-0.8
-1.2
-1.3
-0.6
-0.5
0.48
2.04
1.81
0.71
1.52
3.00
0.50
1.92
1.44
0.72
1.54
3.01
0.25
1.79
1.14
0.86
1.02
2.90
0.23
1.70
0.95
0.79
0.92
2.86
0.19
1.62
0.90
0.76
0.82
2.79
0.10
1.58
0.84
0.73
0.71
2.78
0.05
1.55
0.81
0.67
0.63
2.78
0.04
1.55
0.91
0.62
0.57
2.77
0.03
1.54
0.86
0.58
0.56
2.77
0.02
1.53
0.85
0.54
0.53
2.77
0.02
1.53
0.84
0.50
0.52
2.77
-6.3
-1.3
-4.5
1.8
-3.9
-0.4
-2.6
-1.0
-2.4
-1.2
-2.2
-0.4
-11.9
-0.5
-1.0
-1.2
-2.6
0.0
-6.0
0.0
0.2
-1.5
-0.9
0.0
19.3
0.2
19.7
0.2
23.9
5.1
30.7
6.8
33.3
10.1
37.8
10.7
41.7
11.2
42.7
11.8
43.0
12.0
43.7
12.3
43.8
12.7
43372
0
14595
8421
7231
1553
11323
168
1
80
0
10363
0
3984
3883
100
1
0
6379
1676
0
1885
1796
2374
310
0
14
46188
0
15226
8791
13606
1987
4731
1773
3
71
0
13013
0
5446
4422
1021
2
0
7568
1874
0
1895
2626
2667
366
0
14
53691
0
7100
3011
14900
2943
16147
9182
211
197
0
18001
0
8041
4043
3864
134
0
9960
1764
0
1800
4864
2813
458
0
25
50169
0
7438
1676
11795
3505
11049
12876
1610
219
0
20146
0
11034
4584
5398
1051
0
9113
1327
0
1800
4864
1823
601
0
25
53684
0
5155
383
14267
4225
11257
13736
3800
862
0
21767
0
12817
4589
5689
2212
327
8950
1551
0
1800
4768
1750
606
0
26
53746
0
516
123
10583
4843
11462
17000
8245
974
0
24361
0
16140
4628
6802
4325
385
8221
1430
0
1421
4750
1277
746
0
26
57243
0
201
97
6295
5387
11898
21390
10905
1070
0
26417
0
19111
4738
8324
5613
435
7307
1537
0
568
4746
996
970
0
26
61595
0
0
0
5129
6493
12622
23511
12345
1495
0
27469
0
20793
4946
9043
6309
495
6676
1656
0
0
4883
515
1217
0
62
63139
0
0
0
4293
7178
12998
23753
13150
1768
0
28214
0
21595
5122
9148
6698
626
6620
1683
0
0
4597
486
1473
0
64
65273
0
0
6
3332
7646
12908
24015
15372
1995
0
29757
0
22832
5336
9260
7491
745
6925
1921
0
0
4640
434
1787
0
64
66565
0
0
2
1947
7326
13318
24266
17526
2181
0
31308
0
24038
5613
9370
8214
841
7270
1951
0
0
4771
556
1880
0
64
2.2
0.0
-7.0
-9.8
7.5
6.6
3.6
49.2
70.8
9.4
0.0
5.7
0.0
7.3
0.4
44.1
63.2
0.0
4.6
0.5
0.0
-0.5
10.5
1.7
4.0
0.0
6.0
0.0
0.0
-3.2
-18.6
-0.4
3.7
-3.5
4.1
33.5
15.9
0.0
1.9
0.0
4.8
1.3
3.9
32.4
0.0
-1.1
-1.3
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-4.6
2.8
0.0
0.5
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
46.1
39.1
33.2
27.7
27.5
24.8
24.4
25.2
25.2
24.7
23.9
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
42.0
10.0
0.0
30.3
0.0
30.3
43.1
11.6
0.0
18.5
0.0
18.5
41.9
11.8
0.0
53.4
0.0
53.4
39.7
12.5
0.0
58.3
0.0
58.3
39.2
11.2
0.0
63.1
0.0
63.1
36.9
11.4
0.0
79.1
0.0
79.1
34.3
12.3
0.0
88.5
0.0
88.5
31.2
11.2
0.0
91.7
0.0
91.7
31.8
11.4
0.0
93.2
0.0
93.2
31.0
12.0
0.0
94.9
0.0
94.9
27.9
10.8
0.0
97.1
0.0
97.1
104.8
11.8
72.5
4.6
15.7
0.3
120.0
11.1
87.0
4.7
17.0
0.3
119.7
10.6
85.5
5.2
18.1
0.3
122.7
10.7
85.9
5.5
20.3
0.3
125.8
10.7
86.1
5.9
22.8
0.3
137.6
11.7
92.8
7.0
25.7
0.3
150.4
12.9
100.0
8.4
28.8
0.3
159.3
13.5
104.4
9.2
31.8
0.4
168.7
14.2
108.9
10.1
35.1
0.4
175.9
14.8
111.7
10.7
38.2
0.4
183.2
15.4
114.6
11.3
41.6
0.4
1.3
-1.1
1.7
1.4
1.5
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.1
1.1
2.3
0.1
1.8
1.8
1.5
3.7
2.4
1.7
1.0
0.9
0.7
1.5
1.8
0.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
44.6
38.9
2.2
3.5
49.9
42.6
2.4
4.9
43.1
35.4
2.3
5.4
45.0
36.9
2.5
5.6
47.1
38.5
2.7
5.8
50.3
41.0
3.0
6.3
53.8
43.8
3.4
6.7
56.3
45.7
3.5
7.0
58.9
47.8
3.7
7.4
60.6
49.2
3.8
7.6
62.4
50.6
4.0
7.8
-0.3
-0.9
0.6
4.4
0.9
0.9
1.6
0.8
1.4
1.3
2.2
1.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
6542
207
2767
2645
88
790
440
7107
193
3183
2733
66
914
170
7296
194
3283
2677
57
1040
450
7270
189
3100
2736
54
1145
460
7105
184
2827
2779
56
1212
470
7085
194
2693
2841
61
1246
500
7170
204
2647
2914
66
1285
540
7243
209
2611
2951
67
1349
550
7415
215
2623
3005
69
1445
570
7541
220
2630
3022
69
1542
580
7661
226
2659
3052
69
1596
590
1.1
-0.7
1.7
0.1
-4.2
2.8
0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.5
-1.5
0.4
-0.2
1.5
0.5
0.0
0.1
1.0
-0.7
0.5
1.6
0.6
1.3
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.3
1.1
0.5
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.0
-27.7 -100.0
-12.8
-18.0
-7.9
-5.7
2.5
1.5
0.6
0.6
4.5
0.6
11.1
2.4
2.2
3.6
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
4.1
1.2
0.3
0.9
3.9
0.6
9.8
1.9
2.9
3.3
-2.0
0.0
-0.1
1.2
0.0
0.0
-10.9 -100.0
0.0
0.0
-5.5
-2.9
4.8
3.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.5
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
133
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Romania: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
28551
5603
6441
10968
1407
4131
1271
2854
0
0
7
28239
5793
6242
9701
1433
5070
1737
3314
0
0
18
27741
5904
4513
8619
2998
5708
1679
3980
26
0
23
29416
5549
5417
7561
3003
7886
1907
5535
225
98
121
30423
5056
5491
8484
3016
8376
1883
5839
227
272
156
30583
4234
5336
9104
3016
8892
1921
5786
582
438
164
30650
3695
5316
8778
3703
9157
1928
5908
673
488
160
31516
3094
5143
9046
4676
9557
1953
6238
674
516
175
32210
4645
5000
8454
4676
9434
1999
6046
674
553
163
32614
5083
4768
8821
4676
9266
2067
5669
802
569
160
31215
5205
4530
7648
4676
9156
2165
5321
820
692
157
-0.3
0.5
-3.5
-2.4
7.9
3.3
2.8
3.4
0.0
0.0
13.1
0.9
-1.5
2.0
-0.2
0.1
3.9
1.2
3.9
24.0
120.7
21.1
0.1
-3.1
-0.3
0.3
2.1
0.9
0.2
0.1
11.5
6.0
0.3
0.1
1.7
-0.8
-0.7
1.2
0.0
0.6
-0.5
1.0
1.8
-0.1
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
8109
1920
3537
4869
-1331
2712
-60
10875
2936
3998
8885
-4888
4190
-250
7736
1234
4748
6161
-1413
1816
-196
6872
2077
3982
5245
-1264
2062
-302
6639
1978
4198
5180
-982
1730
-350
6287
1976
4307
5081
-774
1412
-576
6460
1990
4290
4880
-591
1646
-721
6323
1752
4419
4832
-414
1703
-819
6417
1711
4811
5012
-201
1604
-1049
6505
1545
4943
4986
-43
1675
-1096
7727
1470
5171
5043
128
2744
-1199
-0.5
-4.3
3.0
2.4
0.6
-3.9
12.6
-1.5
4.8
-1.2
-1.7
-3.6
-0.5
6.0
-0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.6
-5.0
-0.5
7.5
0.9
-1.5
0.9
0.2
0.0
2.6
2.6
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
36832
7493
10175
13680
1407
-60
4137
39346
8784
10411
13942
1433
-250
5026
35708
7009
9247
10788
2998
-196
5862
36265
7625
9376
9624
3003
-302
6939
37034
7035
9661
10214
3016
-350
7458
36839
6210
9612
10516
3016
-576
8060
37076
5685
9572
10423
3703
-721
8413
37803
4846
9526
10748
4676
-819
8825
38589
6356
9775
10057
4676
-1049
8774
39079
6628
9672
10494
4676
-1096
8705
38900
6675
9661
10390
4676
-1199
8697
-0.3
-0.7
-1.0
-2.3
7.9
12.6
3.5
0.4
0.0
0.4
-0.5
0.1
6.0
2.4
0.0
-2.1
-0.1
0.2
2.1
7.5
1.2
0.2
0.8
0.0
0.0
1.2
2.6
0.2
20.3
27.6
37.1
3.8
11.2
22.3
26.5
35.4
3.6
12.8
19.6
25.9
30.2
8.4
16.4
21.0
25.9
26.5
8.3
19.1
19.0
26.1
27.6
8.1
20.1
16.9
26.1
28.5
8.2
21.9
15.3
25.8
28.1
10.0
22.7
12.8
25.2
28.4
12.4
23.3
16.5
25.3
26.1
12.1
22.7
17.0
24.8
26.9
12.0
22.3
17.2
24.8
26.7
12.0
22.4
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
51925
9936
59402
9987
60248
12112
67256
10955
70780
10776
75073
10877
78447
10739
82936
11103
91284
13946
97194
14422
100169
14719
1.5
2.0
1.6
-1.2
1.0
0.0
1.2
1.6
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
10788
5462
1736
3579
11
0
0
10372
6127
800
3437
9
0
0
8676
5928
328
2399
21
1
0
7459
5647
510
1033
254
15
0
7790
5145
584
1623
424
15
0
7385
4399
630
1626
715
15
0
7160
3913
671
1709
851
15
0
7182
3247
543
1926
1451
15
0
8133
4803
663
1253
1399
15
0
8981
5158
546
1929
1333
15
0
8955
5300
543
1828
1269
15
0
-2.2
0.8
-15.4
-3.9
6.2
0.0
0.0
-1.1
-1.4
5.9
-3.8
35.1
33.5
0.0
-0.8
-2.7
1.4
0.5
7.2
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.5
-1.1
0.3
2.0
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
16426
11401
0
1737
3287
19709
15264
1
824
3621
15376
11350
115
689
3221
18211
14006
144
675
3386
19069
14607
492
595
3376
18580
14268
466
492
3355
19010
14162
451
399
3998
19491
13799
453
336
4903
19234
13562
454
286
4933
18672
13094
435
222
4921
18117
12616
412
185
4904
-0.7
0.0
80.7
-8.8
-0.2
2.2
2.6
15.6
-1.5
0.5
0.0
-0.3
-0.9
-3.9
1.7
-0.2
-0.6
-0.5
-3.8
1.0
Energy Branch Consumption
3676
4105
2888
2966
3043
3030
3002
2979
3202
3235
3157
-2.4
0.5
-0.1
0.3
Non-Energy Uses
1883
2437
1724
1606
1634
1675
1736
1738
1716
1700
1690
-0.9
-0.5
0.6
-0.1
22725
24958
22474
25222
26050
26250
26383
26666
27056
27270
27269
-0.1
1.5
0.1
0.2
9293
6328
2966
8408
1602
3421
10228
7430
2798
7990
2463
4277
6881
4763
2117
8102
2487
5004
8489
6019
2470
8558
2692
5483
8701
6064
2637
8575
2728
6045
8755
6104
2651
8710
2623
6162
8833
6182
2652
8667
2536
6348
8631
5992
2640
8995
2528
6512
8566
5894
2673
9210
2528
6751
8563
5964
2598
9369
2520
6818
8362
5790
2572
9515
2458
6935
-3.0
-2.8
-3.3
-0.4
4.5
3.9
2.4
2.4
2.2
0.6
0.9
1.9
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.7
0.5
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
0.5
-0.2
0.4
1047
5478
6910
2918
3570
2802
0
1607
6876
7754
3341
2135
3244
0
939
6067
6189
3553
1650
4077
0
1564
6633
6550
4138
1898
4439
0
1501
6871
6548
4403
1973
4754
0
1450
6894
6843
4544
1946
4572
1
1467
6941
6813
4707
1981
4473
2
1365
7077
6930
4968
2009
4315
2
1286
7247
6876
5191
2012
4441
3
1213
7241
6873
5602
2144
4194
4
1137
7293
6940
5738
2131
4027
5
-1.1
1.0
-1.1
2.0
-7.4
3.8
-2.4
4.8
1.3
0.6
2.2
1.8
1.5
64.1
-0.2
0.1
0.4
0.7
0.0
-0.6
13.8
-1.3
0.2
0.1
1.0
0.4
-0.5
5.3
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
4090
4601
5601
6644
7322
7887
8184
8462
8555
8430
8449
3.2
2.7
1.1
0.2
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
137.8
120.8
56.6
64.2
77.0
33.5
5.2
14.4
5.8
3.6
14.5
8.6
35.2
126.7
60.1
66.6
80.1
29.4
5.6
19.7
6.1
3.5
15.8
10.1
36.4
126.2
58.8
67.4
79.8
28.6
5.8
19.1
6.5
3.4
16.4
11.1
35.2
123.3
55.8
67.6
76.7
25.2
5.6
18.9
7.1
3.2
16.8
11.6
35.1
117.8
51.1
66.7
73.7
22.8
5.4
18.2
7.2
2.9
17.2
9.6
34.5
113.9
46.9
66.9
70.0
19.9
5.2
16.7
7.6
2.9
17.6
9.4
34.5
110.9
44.0
66.9
67.4
17.9
5.0
15.5
7.9
2.9
18.2
9.1
34.4
101.4
34.9
66.5
65.8
16.9
4.8
14.9
8.0
2.8
18.4
1.2
34.4
99.7
33.3
66.5
64.6
16.1
4.5
14.4
8.2
2.8
18.7
0.9
34.3
-1.3
88.7
42.0
6.8
21.6
6.6
1.9
9.8
9.1
40.1
147.7
76.7
71.0
96.5
39.2
7.7
25.7
7.3
4.2
12.4
10.6
40.5
-1.4
-2.2
-2.5
-4.0
-1.2
6.8
4.0
-0.5
-1.3
0
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
-1.6
1.0
2.9
1.1
-0.5
1.3
2.6
0.0
0
-0.7
-1.4
-0.1
-0.8
-2.2
-0.8
-0.5
1.1
-1.5
0.5
-1.5
-0.2
0
-0.8
-2.1
0.0
-0.7
-1.7
-0.8
-1.2
0.6
-0.3
0.4
-11.2
0.0
0
54.20
58.10
47.50
49.80
49.60
48.50
46.30
44.80
43.60
39.90
39.30
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
134
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Romania: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
22.455
83.1
443.5
2.41
22.0
21.659
109.7
358.8
2.45
27.6
21.462
124.1
287.8
2.16
21.7
21.261
141.6
256.1
2.21
18.9
21.006
157.3
235.5
2.15
17.9
20.664
167.6
219.8
2.08
17.1
20.251
178.7
207.5
1.99
17.4
19.857
190.2
198.7
1.85
16.7
19.437
201.4
191.6
1.75
16.6
18.986
209.4
186.6
1.68
16.6
18.483
216.0
180.1
1.66
19.8
-0.5
4.1
-4.2
-1.1
-0.2
2.4
-2.0
0.0
-0.4
1.3
-1.3
-0.8
-0.5
1.0
-0.7
-0.9
12.3
14.8
20.6
18.8
23.4
18.8
30.4
21.5
35.5
22.6
38.8
23.2
42.1
23.6
44.7
23.5
47.5
23.6
50.2
24.0
51.7
23.9
6.6
4.3
1.7
1.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
26.8
30.8
83.7
59.2
117.6
23.5
26.5
48.9
48.8
110.3
22.7
54.7
50.8
44.1
103.6
21.7
48.9
45.5
39.1
94.4
19.9
45.8
42.8
37.0
84.9
18.0
42.1
40.4
34.3
76.9
16.7
38.8
37.1
33.2
71.6
15.8
37.2
35.3
32.0
66.8
15.3
35.7
34.7
31.3
63.5
15.0
34.5
33.7
30.8
59.6
14.9
33.5
-6.9
-6.9
1.0
-1.7
5.9
-0.7
-2.2
-1.5
-1.3
-1.8
-1.2
-1.3
-2.0
-1.7
-1.6
-0.9
-0.5
-1.3
-0.6
-0.7
0.41
1.76
2.33
0.78
1.16
2.87
0.42
1.99
2.51
0.92
1.72
2.90
0.39
1.70
2.09
0.72
1.44
2.89
0.30
1.79
2.32
0.71
1.30
2.88
0.28
1.74
2.20
0.76
1.25
2.71
0.23
1.75
2.16
0.81
1.20
2.72
0.20
1.73
2.06
0.83
1.16
2.72
0.17
1.69
1.94
0.85
1.15
2.71
0.14
1.64
1.81
0.86
1.13
2.70
0.13
1.62
1.74
0.85
1.13
2.69
0.12
1.61
1.72
0.86
1.13
2.70
-0.6
-0.3
-1.1
-0.8
2.2
0.1
-3.3
0.2
0.5
0.5
-1.4
-0.6
-3.0
-0.1
-0.7
1.0
-0.8
0.0
-2.7
-0.3
-0.9
0.1
-0.1
0.0
16.7
1.1
17.2
0.9
23.0
3.2
24.9
3.9
26.6
10.2
28.4
10.3
29.4
10.3
30.0
10.5
29.7
10.6
29.0
10.5
29.0
10.5
51934
5456
18926
3399
9375
0
14778
0
0
0
0
19999
667
6154
6154
0
0
0
13177
3431
0
7284
3910
1776
208
0
0
59413
5555
21916
1894
9834
7
20207
0
0
0
0
18357
663
6162
6160
2
0
0
11532
2995
0
6615
3478
1232
208
0
0
60259
11623
20681
692
7323
111
19523
306
0
0
0
19665
1357
6737
6275
462
0
0
11571
3136
0
6471
3704
1188
206
0
2
67256
11880
20259
2371
6568
1101
22175
2621
262
18
0
19557
1368
8848
7068
1566
214
0
9341
2976
0
5737
2812
583
207
0
2
70780
11880
18416
2313
10934
1857
21896
2634
832
18
0
20243
1374
9425
7175
1572
679
0
9444
3326
0
5714
2924
597
207
0
2
75073
11880
15585
2150
10961
3272
22341
6773
2093
18
0
20996
1374
12615
7244
3540
1830
0
7007
3119
0
4552
1701
552
200
0
2
78447
14875
13713
2010
11524
3933
22413
7831
2130
18
0
20893
1718
13172
7268
4043
1860
0
6003
3220
0
3465
1726
518
292
0
2
82936
19024
11139
2647
11779
5590
22713
7835
2191
18
0
22199
2194
13270
7314
4045
1910
0
6735
3545
29
3068
2771
602
292
0
2
91284
19024
22075
3131
7509
6198
23242
7837
2253
18
0
23921
2194
13438
7432
4046
1960
0
8289
3941
1088
4523
2815
589
359
0
2
97194
19024
23013
3017
11427
5022
24037
9323
2314
18
0
25706
2194
14310
7604
4695
2010
0
9202
4428
1552
4796
3395
605
404
0
2
100169
19024
24126
3281
9996
5229
25169
9539
3788
18
0
27492
2194
15831
7836
4783
3213
0
9466
4451
1704
4968
3432
597
469
0
2
1.5
7.9
0.9
-14.7
-2.4
0.0
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
7.4
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.3
-0.9
0.0
-1.2
-0.5
-3.9
-0.1
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.2
-1.2
12.8
4.1
32.5
1.2
24.0
174.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
3.4
1.3
13.0
164.9
0.0
-2.0
0.6
0.0
-1.2
-2.3
-6.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.3
-2.9
-1.4
0.5
7.8
0.2
11.5
9.9
0.0
0.0
0.3
2.3
3.4
0.1
9.9
10.6
0.0
-4.4
-0.3
0.0
-4.9
-5.1
-1.4
3.5
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.2
2.9
2.5
-0.7
1.4
0.6
1.0
2.9
0.0
0.0
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.4
0.8
2.8
0.0
2.3
1.6
0.0
1.8
3.5
0.7
2.4
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
27.8
34.5
32.0
37.4
38.2
39.0
41.1
40.8
40.5
40.0
38.5
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
25.3
32.3
0.0
39.0
10.5
28.5
27.9
26.2
0.0
43.4
9.3
34.0
28.5
10.8
0.0
52.4
19.3
33.1
35.0
22.3
0.0
56.6
17.7
38.9
37.0
24.1
0.0
55.3
16.8
38.5
37.2
24.0
0.0
61.8
15.8
46.0
37.5
23.5
0.0
65.3
19.0
46.3
37.3
24.3
0.3
69.2
22.9
46.2
41.2
26.1
12.4
64.2
20.8
43.3
40.7
23.4
16.7
61.5
19.6
41.9
41.0
23.2
17.6
62.7
19.0
43.7
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
84.9
12.0
53.6
17.6
1.7
0.0
92.7
11.8
63.4
14.6
3.0
0.0
109.5
12.0
78.3
12.6
6.6
0.0
120.6
12.8
85.0
14.4
8.5
0.0
132.9
13.6
91.8
16.4
11.1
0.0
147.9
14.5
101.1
18.4
13.9
0.0
164.7
15.4
111.1
20.7
17.5
0.0
180.2
16.2
120.4
23.1
20.4
0.0
197.3
17.1
130.3
25.9
23.9
0.0
206.8
17.9
134.8
27.4
26.7
0.0
216.7
18.8
139.2
29.0
29.6
0.0
2.6
0.0
3.9
-3.3
14.7
-3.1
2.0
1.3
1.6
2.7
5.3
1.7
2.2
1.2
1.9
2.4
4.7
1.9
1.4
1.0
1.1
1.7
2.7
1.2
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
33.3
14.3
16.4
2.6
75.7
51.5
16.6
7.6
45.2
25.9
12.4
6.9
57.4
34.9
14.6
7.9
73.0
46.7
17.3
9.0
81.4
52.3
19.3
9.8
90.9
58.5
21.6
10.8
96.3
61.9
23.0
11.4
102.1
65.6
24.4
12.1
105.1
67.3
25.4
12.4
108.0
69.0
26.3
12.7
3.1
6.1
-2.7
10.1
4.9
6.1
3.4
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.3
1.8
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.8
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
3298
142
1898
661
355
128
1120
4188
137
1881
1842
158
128
420
4953
137
2018
2245
221
272
590
5424
145
2059
2553
253
346
670
5980
152
1992
3060
282
418
760
6092
156
1934
3136
305
479
820
6272
161
1952
3221
325
524
890
6433
166
2009
3274
338
552
930
6668
171
2096
3338
346
619
970
6731
177
2120
3325
341
670
980
6846
183
2161
3336
334
733
990
4.2
-0.4
0.6
13.0
-4.6
7.8
-6.2
0.0
1.9
1.0
-0.1
3.1
2.5
4.4
2.6
0.0
0.5
0.6
-0.2
0.5
1.4
2.3
1.6
0.0
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.1
1.7
0.5
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
135
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Slovakia: Reference scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
6385
1018
161
133
4255
818
397
421
0
0
0
6684
637
383
126
4626
912
399
505
1
0
8
6319
613
366
88
3819
1432
452
972
1
0
8
7386
613
314
81
4932
1447
515
860
8
59
4
8109
487
0
84
5751
1787
497
1165
20
99
6
8310
437
0
86
6017
1769
527
1077
32
129
5
9143
421
0
82
6677
1963
528
1215
76
139
4
9871
486
0
81
7293
2012
543
1220
94
150
4
9636
76
0
78
7299
2183
559
1351
112
157
4
9876
395
0
28
7299
2154
566
1302
121
161
4
9392
546
0
22
6648
2175
614
1236
125
197
4
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
11680
3432
2773
5406
-2634
5707
-232
12492
3739
3337
5488
-2150
5735
-281
11314
2951
3283
5412
-2128
5003
90
11164
2849
3006
5031
-2024
5021
13
11403
2857
3406
5257
-1851
4863
-154
11678
2933
3449
5129
-1681
5025
-201
11366
2730
3534
5036
-1502
4791
-272
10930
2495
3532
4877
-1345
4721
-464
10999
2403
3503
4696
-1193
4755
-460
10843
2334
3451
4496
-1046
4672
-474
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
17977
4278
3090
5776
4255
-232
810
19094
4230
3775
5884
4626
-281
859
17922
3897
3689
5006
3819
90
1421
18550
3462
3320
5101
4932
13
1723
19513
3345
3406
4947
5751
-154
2219
19988
3370
3449
5111
6017
-201
2242
20509
3151
3534
4874
6677
-272
2546
20801
2981
3532
4801
7293
-464
2658
20635
2479
3503
4833
7299
-460
2982
23.8
17.2
32.1
23.7
4.5
22.2
19.8
30.8
24.2
4.5
21.7
20.6
27.9
21.3
7.9
18.7
17.9
27.5
26.6
9.3
17.1
17.5
25.4
29.5
11.4
16.9
17.3
25.6
30.1
11.2
15.4
17.2
23.8
32.6
12.4
14.3
17.0
23.1
35.1
12.8
30792
5209
31346
3905
27442
3427
30831
2518
35461
2817
37920
3057
41060
3307
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
2656
1619
31
1002
4
0
0
2664
1677
100
847
40
0
0
2555
1205
293
793
264
0
0
1739
1070
1
399
270
0
0
1766
958
8
385
415
0
0
1759
994
8
455
302
0
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
12851
5638
0
674
6539
14320
6458
10
718
7134
12733
6119
164
497
5952
13409
5625
204
668
6912
14226
5547
227
660
7793
14369
5418
245
682
8025
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
-0.1
2.5
-4.9
-2.3
8.5 -100.0
-4.0
-0.5
-1.1
4.2
5.8
2.2
1.3
1.0
8.7
1.8
0.0
44.3
0.0 114.6
0.0
-3.1
1.2
-1.4
0.0
-0.2
1.5
0.9
0.6
0.4
14.2
3.4
-3.0
0.1
1.3
0.0
-6.4
0.0
0.5
0.8
0.1
2.5
1.8
-0.7
10697
2249
3380
4282
-903
4579
-453
-0.3
-1.5
1.7
0.0
-2.1
-1.3
0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
-1.4
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.4
-0.4
-2.1
-0.1
5.8
-0.3
-1.0
-0.2
-0.8
-2.5
-0.2
2.6
20720
2729
3451
4700
7299
-474
3015
20089
2796
3380
4601
6648
-453
3116
0.0
-0.9
1.8
-1.4
-1.1
0.0
5.8
0.9
-1.5
-0.8
-0.1
4.2
0.0
4.6
0.5
-0.6
0.4
-0.1
1.5
5.8
1.4
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
2.6
1.0
12.0
17.0
23.4
35.4
14.4
13.2
16.7
22.7
35.2
14.6
13.9
16.8
22.9
33.1
15.5
44674
3512
45285
3623
47401
4142
47707
4451
-1.1
-4.1
2.6
-1.9
1.5
1.6
0.8
1.5
1809
851
10
455
493
0
0
1773
736
9
446
582
0
0
1541
282
6
441
813
0
0
1889
607
3
448
831
0
0
2076
755
1
418
902
0
0
-0.4
-2.9
25.3
-2.3
51.0
0.0
0.0
-3.6
-2.3
-30.2
-7.0
4.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
-1.2
2.2
1.7
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.7
-0.6
-10.6
-0.4
3.1
0.0
0.0
14781
5330
262
661
8529
15146
5168
267
658
9054
15026
4971
273
776
9006
14683
4761
278
688
8955
13639
4530
286
581
8242
-0.1
0.8
0.0
-3.0
-0.9
1.1
-1.0
3.3
2.9
2.7
0.4
-0.4
1.5
0.0
0.9
-0.4
-0.8
0.4
-0.6
-0.2
784
1492
974
816
833
826
811
796
776
794
802
2.2
-1.5
-0.3
-0.1
1633
1524
1041
1037
1102
1145
1176
1187
1152
1114
1082
-4.4
0.6
0.7
-0.4
10553
11075
11593
12221
12636
12963
13033
13041
13031
13017
12903
0.9
0.9
0.3
-0.1
4101
3236
865
2586
2407
1459
4229
3404
826
2540
1916
2389
4352
3628
724
2307
2278
2655
4642
3738
904
2450
2355
2775
4974
4000
974
2461
2357
2844
5138
4070
1068
2567
2376
2882
5258
4126
1131
2518
2282
2976
5250
4085
1165
2552
2248
2990
5197
4014
1183
2589
2218
3028
5196
4011
1185
2590
2212
3020
5078
3908
1169
2600
2195
3030
0.6
1.2
-1.8
-1.1
-0.5
6.2
1.3
1.0
3.0
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.3
1.5
0.2
-0.3
0.5
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
0.2
-0.2
0.1
1476
1707
4537
1893
619
320
0
1300
2165
4346
1965
951
348
0
1637
2297
4109
2074
851
624
0
1531
2337
4279
2368
928
776
0
1538
2371
4137
2574
923
1092
0
1574
2380
4255
2719
940
1094
1
1608
2473
3976
2896
930
1149
1
1626
2509
3879
2996
928
1101
1
1610
2537
3845
3048
909
1081
2
1560
2523
3766
3167
898
1099
3
1506
2496
3755
3186
889
1066
4
1.0
3.0
-1.0
0.9
3.2
6.9
0.0
-0.6
0.3
0.1
2.2
0.8
5.8
0.0
0.4
0.4
-0.4
1.2
0.1
0.5
14.4
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.5
-0.2
-0.4
7.7
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
379
723
1139
1509
1937
2001
2271
2380
2664
2700
2776
11.6
5.5
1.6
1.0
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
49.4
50.4
25.6
24.7
38.6
9.2
2.5
12.8
3.4
3.6
7.1
3.6
8.1
47.5
24.3
23.1
35.9
6.8
2.1
13.1
3.4
3.1
7.4
4.6
7.0
46.3
23.5
22.9
35.1
6.2
2.1
13.5
3.2
2.7
7.5
4.7
6.5
47.1
24.0
23.0
35.6
6.4
2.0
13.7
3.4
2.6
7.6
4.9
6.5
44.7
22.1
22.5
33.8
5.8
1.7
13.1
3.2
2.2
7.8
4.4
6.5
43.3
21.0
22.3
32.6
5.2
1.5
12.8
3.2
2.1
7.8
4.2
6.4
41.0
18.7
22.3
30.5
3.4
1.4
12.5
3.3
2.0
7.9
4.2
6.4
37.9
15.8
22.0
30.0
3.5
1.4
12.2
3.2
1.9
7.8
1.4
6.4
37.0
15.1
21.9
29.3
3.2
1.3
11.8
3.2
1.8
7.8
1.3
6.4
0.2
37.6
11.1
3.1
10.7
4.1
4.5
4.1
3.8
8.0
53.6
29.6
24.1
40.5
11.2
5.2
11.1
3.6
2.7
6.6
4.4
8.7
0.3
-1.8
-2.3
1.8
-2.0
-2.1
5.7
-0.7
0.2
0
-0.8
-0.9
-0.8
-0.9
-3.9
-1.8
0.5
-0.7
-2.9
0.5
2.8
-2.3
0
-0.4
-0.6
-0.1
-0.4
-0.7
-2.1
-0.3
0.2
-1.9
0.3
-0.6
0.0
0
-0.9
-1.9
-0.1
-0.7
-2.9
-1.2
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
0.0
-6.0
0.0
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
68.70
74.70
70.10
66.10
64.50
65.50
62.20
60.20
57.10
52.70
51.50
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
136
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Slovakia: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
5.399
41.3
435.6
2.09
65.0
5.385
52.4
364.2
2.12
65.4
5.425
65.7
272.6
2.16
63.1
5.511
74.4
249.3
1.93
60.2
5.576
83.9
232.5
1.80
58.4
5.600
95.5
209.2
1.78
58.4
5.580
105.8
193.9
1.65
55.4
5.528
113.2
183.7
1.57
52.5
5.467
119.0
173.3
1.48
53.3
5.403
123.6
167.6
1.45
52.3
5.326
127.4
157.6
1.46
53.2
0.0
4.8
-4.6
0.3
0.3
2.5
-1.6
-1.8
0.0
2.3
-1.8
-0.9
-0.2
0.9
-1.0
-0.6
7.3
17.7
9.3
17.8
13.0
19.8
16.0
21.5
18.2
21.6
20.0
21.0
21.6
20.5
22.1
19.5
22.9
19.3
23.6
19.1
23.4
18.4
5.9
3.4
1.8
0.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
23.2
22.1
58.3
77.8
71.2
22.7
27.6
38.4
59.2
75.3
25.1
36.7
36.8
55.2
67.2
24.2
34.9
34.9
48.8
59.3
21.7
33.3
31.4
44.4
52.6
19.2
31.3
28.8
39.0
45.7
17.8
29.9
26.7
36.8
42.0
17.0
28.9
25.3
35.3
39.1
16.5
28.1
24.7
33.9
37.2
16.2
27.4
24.2
32.9
35.1
16.1
26.9
-9.1
-5.1
-2.8
0.8
5.2
-1.0
-1.9
-2.4
-1.4
-1.0
-1.9
-2.2
-2.6
-2.0
-1.1
-0.9
-0.8
-1.3
-0.5
-0.5
0.27
2.22
2.60
1.60
1.85
2.82
0.25
2.17
2.62
1.40
1.43
2.77
0.23
2.32
2.93
1.47
1.58
2.69
0.15
2.21
2.81
1.40
1.32
2.66
0.13
2.12
2.71
1.28
1.14
2.65
0.12
2.10
2.67
1.31
1.08
2.63
0.10
2.02
2.48
1.28
0.97
2.62
0.09
1.99
2.44
1.27
0.92
2.61
0.06
1.97
2.41
1.26
0.90
2.61
0.06
1.93
2.34
1.25
0.87
2.60
0.05
1.92
2.33
1.25
0.83
2.59
-1.4
0.5
1.2
-0.9
-1.6
-0.5
-5.9
-0.9
-0.8
-1.4
-3.3
-0.2
-1.9
-0.5
-0.9
0.0
-1.6
-0.1
-3.4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
-0.8
-0.1
3.3
0.5
6.2
0.9
9.3
7.8
12.0
9.3
14.8
10.1
14.9
10.9
16.8
11.3
17.6
11.6
19.7
12.0
19.9
12.3
20.6
12.7
30798
16494
5584
202
3871
32
4615
0
0
0
0
6602
2436
1494
1494
0
0
0
2671
618
0
1357
1122
87
105
0
0
31352
17727
5535
741
2629
76
4638
6
0
0
0
7090
2550
1584
1579
5
0
0
2957
786
0
1426
1182
184
165
0
0
27447
14574
3570
600
2716
726
5255
6
0
0
0
6636
1831
1608
1584
5
19
0
3198
1270
0
1357
1488
185
167
0
0
30831
19101
1673
6
2330
1063
5984
99
576
0
0
7415
2748
2213
1626
48
539
0
2453
1032
0
1045
1228
11
170
0
0
35461
22363
2629
41
2152
1525
5779
235
739
0
0
7098
2762
2428
1626
113
689
0
1908
1221
0
465
1230
11
202
0
0
37920
23562
2930
42
2540
1316
6132
375
1023
0
0
7971
2921
2886
1758
180
949
0
2163
946
0
462
1481
18
202
0
0
41060
26441
2198
51
2536
1694
6144
882
1115
0
0
8910
3294
3329
1866
455
1009
0
2287
993
0
528
1523
20
216
0
0
44674
29065
1631
47
2480
2833
6319
1092
1207
0
0
9434
3633
3523
1899
555
1069
0
2278
1812
0
579
1317
20
361
0
0
45285
29090
777
29
2320
3971
6497
1303
1299
0
0
9414
3636
3724
1940
655
1129
0
2054
1551
0
383
1138
16
518
0
0
47401
29090
2482
17
2375
4051
6587
1408
1391
0
0
9762
3636
3866
1973
705
1189
0
2260
1654
161
584
1138
16
522
0
0
47707
27631
3363
4
1970
4305
7135
1450
1850
0
0
9907
3510
4323
2110
725
1488
0
2074
1395
248
672
826
12
565
0
0
-1.1
-1.2
-4.4
11.5
-3.5
36.6
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-2.8
0.7
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
7.5
0.0
0.0
2.9
7.8
4.8
0.0
0.0
2.6
4.4
-3.0
-23.5
-2.3
7.7
1.0
44.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
4.2
4.2
0.3
36.6
43.2
0.0
-5.0
-0.4
0.0
-10.2
-1.9
-24.8
1.9
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
47.4
47.0
43.0
45.5
54.7
52.0
50.4
51.9
52.7
52.8
52.1
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
31.4
18.4
0.0
68.6
53.6
15.1
29.0
15.3
0.0
71.6
56.5
15.1
25.6
15.9
0.0
74.9
53.1
21.8
25.1
8.0
0.0
87.0
62.0
25.0
30.9
12.3
0.0
86.4
63.1
23.3
33.4
14.4
0.0
85.5
62.1
23.3
30.8
12.3
0.0
88.3
64.4
24.0
33.9
15.2
0.0
90.7
65.1
25.6
39.6
15.5
0.0
93.1
64.2
28.9
40.6
15.4
3.4
89.7
61.4
28.3
39.9
15.2
5.1
88.8
57.9
30.9
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
37.2
9.3
24.4
3.2
0.2
0.0
39.0
8.5
26.4
2.6
1.5
0.0
36.2
5.3
27.4
2.6
0.9
0.0
40.2
5.8
30.3
2.9
1.1
0.0
44.7
6.5
33.5
3.3
1.4
0.0
50.5
7.3
37.6
3.8
1.7
0.0
57.0
8.2
42.2
4.5
2.0
0.0
60.2
8.6
44.4
4.8
2.3
0.0
63.6
9.0
46.7
5.2
2.7
0.0
65.4
9.2
47.7
5.4
3.1
0.0
67.3
9.5
48.7
5.6
3.5
0.0
-0.3
-5.5
1.2
-2.1
14.8
0.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.4
4.7
0.0
2.4
2.4
2.3
3.1
3.6
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
1.1
2.8
0.0
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
27.0
14.3
11.2
1.4
32.8
22.6
9.5
0.7
36.9
27.6
8.1
1.2
40.7
30.0
9.5
1.3
45.0
32.6
11.1
1.4
49.1
35.2
12.4
1.5
53.5
38.0
13.9
1.6
55.6
39.5
14.5
1.6
57.8
41.0
15.2
1.7
59.0
41.6
15.6
1.7
60.1
42.3
16.1
1.7
3.2
6.8
-3.2
-1.5
2.0
1.7
3.2
1.5
1.7
1.6
2.3
1.3
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
1459
62
759
514
83
27
140
1790
56
784
861
42
39
70
2262
35
825
1308
40
41
120
2393
39
878
1369
46
50
130
2470
42
864
1439
53
59
140
2506
46
847
1473
59
67
140
2610
50
881
1527
65
73
150
2632
51
884
1536
67
78
160
2674
52
899
1551
69
88
160
2678
52
901
1541
69
98
160
2699
52
910
1542
69
110
160
4.5
-5.5
0.8
9.8
-7.1
4.5
-2.0
0.0
0.9
1.8
0.5
1.0
2.9
3.6
1.4
0.0
0.6
1.6
0.2
0.6
2.1
2.1
1.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.3
2.1
0.2
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
1.5
0.8
1.7
0.2
-1.8
2.1
2.2
-11.7
1.7
-1.3
1.1
4.8
0.6
0.8
14.2
2.5
4.2
2.6
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
0.5
1.8
0.3
3.2
1.3
1.4
0.6
15.0
2.4
3.9
2.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
-0.5
-2.0
1.7
0.0
0.0
1.3
1.2
2.2
-3.0
6.6
-2.7
0.7
4.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
137
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Slovenia: Reference scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
3085
1062
1
6
1228
788
330
458
0
0
0
3492
1184
0
3
1518
787
298
489
0
0
0
3726
1196
0
6
1459
1064
388
642
0
6
28
3520
991
0
0
1467
1062
363
629
1
41
28
3377
608
0
0
1493
1276
396
759
27
60
34
3565
642
0
0
1493
1430
396
783
46
164
41
3500
572
0
0
1493
1435
397
744
54
195
44
3172
164
0
0
1493
1516
395
780
75
220
47
3214
132
0
0
1493
1589
395
845
81
220
49
1755
155
0
0
0
1600
397
844
88
221
50
1709
125
0
0
0
1585
397
802
120
215
50
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
3389
244
2439
151
2288
820
-114
3830
323
2609
0
2609
925
-28
3590
282
2604
0
2604
857
-182
3995
191
2647
0
2647
1170
-110
4021
197
2593
0
2593
1098
-60
3900
132
2518
0
2518
1145
-82
4034
128
2525
0
2525
1239
-81
4226
83
2533
0
2533
1426
-41
4274
67
2540
0
2540
1455
-42
4833
64
2553
0
2553
1701
253
4826
61
2560
0
2560
1683
262
0.6
1.5
0.7
-100.0
1.3
0.4
4.8
1.1
-3.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
-10.5
0.0
-4.2
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
1.2
3.1
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
6426
1305
2393
826
1228
-114
788
7301
1539
2556
929
1518
-28
787
7264
1458
2573
863
1459
-182
1093
7496
1182
2628
1170
1467
-110
1159
7379
805
2574
1097
1493
-60
1470
7445
774
2499
1145
1493
-82
1618
7515
701
2506
1239
1493
-81
1657
7379
247
2514
1425
1493
-41
1741
7468
198
2521
1454
1493
-42
1844
6567
219
2533
1700
0
253
1862
6515
185
2540
1682
0
262
1846
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.4
1.7
4.8
3.3
0.2
-5.8
0.0
2.4
0.2
-10.5
3.0
0.2
-0.7
-1.4
-6.4
-0.3
0.1
1.2
1.5
0.0 -100.0
3.1
0.0
1.2
0.5
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
20.3
37.2
12.8
19.1
12.3
21.1
35.0
12.7
20.8
10.8
20.1
35.4
11.9
20.1
15.0
15.8
35.1
15.6
19.6
15.5
10.9
34.9
14.9
20.2
19.9
10.4
33.6
15.4
20.0
21.7
9.3
33.4
16.5
19.9
22.1
3.3
34.1
19.3
20.2
23.6
2.7
33.8
19.5
20.0
24.7
3.3
38.6
25.9
0.0
28.4
2.8
39.0
25.8
0.0
28.3
13622
1640
15114
1921
16245
2045
17092
2096
17462
1992
17967
1988
18295
1972
17648
1807
18260
1885
14819
1688
14922
1684
1.8
2.2
0.7
-0.3
0.5
-0.1
-1.0
-0.8
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
1302
1215
13
59
15
0
0
1508
1412
9
58
30
0
0
1561
1381
3
113
65
0
0
1606
1125
2
397
83
0
0
1284
748
1
374
161
0
0
1272
721
1
398
151
0
0
1300
639
1
513
147
0
0
1094
205
1
693
195
0
0
1156
164
1
711
281
0
0
1457
183
1
973
301
0
0
1385
152
1
945
286
0
0
1.8
1.3
-13.4
6.7
15.4
0.0
0.0
-1.9
-5.9
-10.1
12.7
9.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
-1.6
-1.0
3.2
-0.9
0.0
0.0
0.3
-6.9
-2.9
3.1
3.4
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
1477
170
0
80
1228
1607
0
0
89
1518
1562
0
45
58
1459
1620
0
90
64
1467
1766
0
190
83
1493
1756
0
192
71
1493
1759
0
193
72
1494
1771
0
202
75
1494
1757
0
205
58
1494
235
0
203
30
2
241
0
208
31
2
0.6
-100.0
0.0
-3.2
1.7
1.2
0.0
15.4
3.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
-1.5
0.0
-9.5
0.0
0.4
-4.1
-28.0
Energy Branch Consumption
107
100
112
100
83
84
80
61
64
45
43
0.4
-3.0
-0.4
-3.0
Non-Energy Uses
238
311
207
209
208
201
200
198
197
195
193
-1.3
0.0
-0.4
-0.2
4432
4872
4970
5278
5449
5539
5609
5617
5685
5713
5713
1.2
0.9
0.3
0.1
1423
835
587
1125
645
1239
1643
1029
614
1186
569
1475
1280
782
498
1275
621
1794
1389
859
530
1318
678
1893
1429
901
528
1323
680
2017
1455
921
534
1371
639
2074
1454
918
536
1394
618
2142
1441
895
546
1377
622
2176
1453
887
565
1372
633
2228
1449
869
580
1364
651
2249
1451
859
591
1331
648
2283
-1.1
-0.7
-1.6
1.3
-0.4
3.8
1.1
1.4
0.6
0.4
0.9
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
-0.9
0.6
0.0
-0.3
0.5
-0.2
0.2
0.3
90
2238
569
905
195
435
0
80
2384
665
1096
196
452
0
52
2445
620
1029
192
631
0
56
2494
654
1171
218
685
0
55
2442
631
1265
247
807
0
51
2374
667
1287
243
916
1
60
2382
647
1318
251
949
1
40
2391
649
1320
247
969
2
33
2398
661
1364
232
994
2
34
2412
649
1380
229
1006
3
31
2421
659
1398
230
972
3
-5.3
0.9
0.9
1.3
-0.2
3.8
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.2
2.1
2.5
2.5
57.5
0.9
-0.3
0.2
0.4
0.2
1.6
12.9
-3.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
-0.4
0.1
4.5
Annual % Change
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
1.9
-1.0
1.2
-6.5
0.0 -100.0
-0.1 -100.0
1.7
0.2
3.1
1.8
1.6
0.2
3.4
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
25.5
0.0
1.8
0.4
-3.5
-0.6
-7.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 -100.0
1.2
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.4
7.2
4.0
12.5
0.5
2.7
0.7
0.9
-3.7
0.1
0.0
0.1
1.5
0.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
767
810
1020
1113
1444
1583
1606
1688
1749
1758
1746
2.9
3.5
1.1
0.4
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
18.6
19.4
8.3
11.1
15.3
6.2
0.0
1.8
1.2
0.9
5.2
0.8
3.3
19.1
7.9
11.2
15.2
5.8
0.0
1.8
1.3
0.8
5.4
0.9
3.1
17.1
6.2
10.9
13.2
4.1
0.0
1.8
1.2
0.8
5.5
1.0
3.0
17.0
6.3
10.7
13.0
4.0
0.0
1.8
1.0
0.6
5.6
1.0
2.9
16.7
6.0
10.7
13.0
3.9
0.0
1.8
0.9
0.5
5.8
0.8
2.8
15.2
4.5
10.6
11.5
2.5
0.0
1.7
0.9
0.5
5.9
0.8
2.8
15.0
4.3
10.7
11.4
2.4
0.0
1.6
0.9
0.5
6.0
0.8
2.8
15.7
5.0
10.7
12.1
3.1
0.0
1.6
0.9
0.5
6.1
0.8
2.8
15.5
4.8
10.7
12.0
2.9
0.0
1.6
0.8
0.5
6.1
0.7
2.8
0.5
14.0
5.5
0.1
2.4
1.3
1.2
3.6
1.0
3.6
20.2
9.0
11.2
15.5
6.3
0.0
2.3
1.4
1.0
4.4
1.2
3.6
0.9
1.3
-14.9
-2.9
-1.0
-2.6
3.8
-1.7
-0.9
0
-1.2
-2.9
-0.2
-1.5
-4.1
-100.0
0.1
-0.4
-1.7
0.4
1.4
-1.0
0
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-2.0
-3.3
0.6
-1.2
-0.4
0
-0.4
-1.1
0.0
-0.4
-1.5
0.0
-0.4
-0.7
-0.1
0.3
-0.8
-0.1
0
100.40
109.10
105.00
103.10
92.60
91.80
90.00
81.80
81.00
84.80
83.70
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
138
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Slovenia: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
1.988
27.1
236.9
2.18
52.7
1.998
32.4
225.3
2.12
52.3
2.047
35.4
205.1
2.11
49.3
2.106
38.2
196.0
2.02
53.2
2.142
41.8
176.6
1.79
54.4
2.155
45.1
164.9
1.75
52.2
2.155
48.8
154.0
1.73
53.5
2.149
52.1
141.5
1.56
57.1
2.141
55.2
135.3
1.53
57.1
2.132
57.9
113.3
1.85
73.4
2.115
60.7
107.4
1.84
73.8
0.3
2.7
-1.4
-0.3
0.5
1.7
-1.5
-1.6
0.1
1.6
-1.4
-0.4
-0.1
1.1
-1.8
0.3
4.1
15.1
5.1
15.8
6.3
17.8
7.6
19.9
8.9
21.4
9.6
21.2
10.3
21.1
10.7
20.5
11.2
20.3
11.7
20.2
12.1
20.0
4.4
3.5
1.4
0.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
41.8
22.7
93.0
92.3
73.6
34.7
37.8
70.1
88.4
70.8
32.9
41.2
67.8
84.2
72.2
31.2
37.5
64.4
76.7
65.7
28.3
36.3
61.4
72.8
56.8
25.2
35.2
57.0
67.6
50.5
22.8
33.6
53.1
61.6
47.4
21.6
32.9
50.6
57.2
45.4
20.8
32.2
48.0
53.4
44.4
20.3
31.5
46.0
49.1
42.2
20.0
31.0
-3.5
-1.2
-3.4
-2.4
6.1
-0.8
-1.4
-0.7
-1.5
-1.2
-1.2
-1.3
-2.6
-2.1
-0.8
-1.1
-1.6
-0.9
-0.7
-0.4
0.34
1.91
1.66
1.18
1.80
2.91
0.35
1.88
1.41
1.22
1.76
2.97
0.33
1.83
1.38
0.94
1.44
2.92
0.29
1.77
1.33
0.96
1.25
2.86
0.19
1.68
1.25
0.87
1.10
2.71
0.19
1.63
1.23
0.72
0.97
2.72
0.18
1.62
1.21
0.68
0.87
2.71
0.12
1.61
1.17
0.66
0.86
2.70
0.11
1.59
1.12
0.65
0.81
2.70
0.17
1.59
1.11
0.63
0.80
2.70
0.16
1.59
1.11
0.61
0.81
2.69
-0.3
-0.4
-1.8
-2.2
-2.2
0.0
-5.1
-0.9
-1.0
-0.8
-2.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.4
-0.3
-2.5
-2.4
0.0
-0.6
-0.1
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
0.0
16.4
0.4
15.7
0.3
19.4
2.8
20.2
5.2
25.5
10.2
27.5
10.2
27.6
10.2
29.0
10.7
29.7
11.0
29.8
11.0
29.6
11.3
13624
4761
4611
55
293
70
3834
0
0
0
0
2822
696
829
829
0
0
0
1297
648
0
956
213
19
109
0
0
15117
5884
5271
42
339
120
3461
0
0
0
0
3180
696
963
963
0
0
0
1520
507
0
955
441
12
113
0
0
16248
5657
5288
8
548
222
4512
0
13
0
0
3164
694
1050
1038
0
12
0
1420
428
0
889
472
11
48
0
0
17092
5684
4301
4
2425
357
4225
11
85
0
0
3730
694
1232
1139
8
85
0
1804
486
0
889
853
10
52
0
0
17462
5785
4026
3
1891
706
4607
316
129
0
0
4201
694
1672
1317
225
130
0
1834
471
0
737
959
8
130
0
0
17967
5785
4058
4
1841
666
4600
541
471
0
0
4772
694
2147
1317
387
443
0
1930
479
0
703
1091
7
130
0
0
18295
5785
3591
2
2542
649
4621
633
473
0
0
5145
694
2214
1317
453
444
0
2236
511
0
701
1410
0
126
0
0
17648
5785
1123
2
3881
925
4588
871
473
0
0
5207
694
2384
1317
623
444
0
2129
494
0
658
1188
0
283
0
0
18260
5785
899
3
4126
1419
4591
939
498
0
0
5263
694
2453
1317
672
464
0
2115
479
0
649
1137
0
330
0
0
14819
0
1016
2
6098
1555
4621
1029
498
0
0
4986
0
2517
1317
736
464
0
2468
900
0
649
1493
0
327
0
0
14922
0
837
2
6078
1490
4617
1399
498
0
0
5240
0
2781
1317
1000
464
0
2459
890
0
649
1515
0
295
0
0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
51.8
50.8
54.9
49.2
45.1
40.9
38.8
37.3
38.2
32.9
31.6
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
33.2
6.4
0.0
63.6
34.9
28.7
32.9
7.3
0.0
62.6
38.9
23.7
33.4
6.9
0.0
64.0
34.8
29.2
38.0
11.8
0.0
60.6
33.3
27.4
44.4
14.5
0.0
66.1
33.1
33.0
44.4
14.0
0.0
67.1
32.2
34.9
44.9
14.2
0.0
66.5
31.6
34.8
46.6
16.7
0.0
71.6
32.8
38.9
48.0
17.0
0.0
72.5
31.7
40.8
51.2
22.1
0.0
52.0
0.0
52.0
52.2
25.4
0.0
53.6
0.0
53.6
25.0
3.5
20.5
0.7
0.3
0.0
26.9
3.1
22.7
0.8
0.4
0.0
30.3
3.2
26.0
0.8
0.3
0.0
32.5
3.3
27.8
1.1
0.4
0.0
34.9
3.4
29.6
1.4
0.5
0.0
37.2
3.5
31.4
1.7
0.6
0.0
39.6
3.6
33.2
2.1
0.7
0.0
40.7
3.7
33.9
2.3
0.8
0.0
41.9
3.7
34.7
2.5
0.9
0.0
42.6
3.8
35.2
2.6
1.0
0.0
43.2
3.8
35.7
2.6
1.1
0.0
1.9
-1.0
2.4
1.4
1.7
0.0
1.4
0.7
1.3
5.3
3.8
0.0
1.3
0.5
1.1
4.6
3.3
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.4
1.1
2.3
0.0
8.2
5.3
2.9
0.0
14.3
11.0
3.2
0.0
19.4
15.9
3.4
0.0
23.4
19.0
4.4
0.0
28.2
22.6
5.7
0.0
32.2
25.4
6.8
0.0
36.8
28.6
8.2
0.0
39.4
30.5
8.8
0.0
42.1
32.6
9.5
0.0
43.8
33.9
9.9
0.0
45.6
35.3
10.3
0.0
9.0
11.6
1.8
0.0
3.9
3.5
5.2
0.0
2.7
2.4
3.8
0.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.0
1229
41
977
163
24
25
00
1474
35
874
514
28
23
00
1793
37
932
772
26
26
00
1892
39
944
849
31
30
00
2015
40
914
992
36
33
00
2072
40
857
1098
41
36
00
2140
40
820
1193
47
40
00
2174
39
794
1250
48
43
00
2226
39
781
1311
49
46
00
2247
39
772
1338
48
49
00
2281
39
769
1373
47
53
00
3.8
-1.0
-0.5
16.8
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.7
-0.2
2.5
3.3
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
-1.1
1.9
2.5
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
0.7
0.1
1.4
0.0
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
1.8
0.7
1.7
0.2
1.4
-2.7
-17.5
-9.7
6.5
13.2
12.2
12.3
1.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
25.9
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
2.9
0.0
0.0
2.4
4.8
2.3
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
26.9
0.0
0.0
0.9
2.6
-4.1
1.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-1.8
8.3
7.4
-4.9
-3.3
-7.8
10.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
-1.0
0.0 -100.0
-1.1
-7.0
-3.5
0.9
3.0
4.5
-0.8
4.2
0.0
0.0
7.2
4.0
13.9
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.1
0.0 -100.0
2.8
1.1
0.0
0.0
7.2
4.0
13.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.5
0.8
2.8
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.4
3.9
0.4
-44.0 -100.0
-0.4
4.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
139
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Spain: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
31592
7966
229
234
16046
7118
2543
4131
406
33
5
30002
6265
168
185
14842
8542
1537
5112
1821
65
7
34105
3034
124
85
15991
14872
3635
6404
3798
1019
16
34644
2656
93
33
15035
16829
2630
7512
4852
1775
60
37342
2583
67
0
15035
19657
2739
9043
4891
2820
163
37070
1562
0
0
14886
20622
2921
8965
5011
3547
177
40903
1260
0
0
14886
24757
3093
9502
7793
4172
196
45907
887
0
0
18005
27015
3038
9453
9094
5219
210
46611
1221
0
0
14782
30608
3108
10968
9606
5803
1123
47686
988
0
0
13939
32760
3126
11045
10940
6289
1361
48246
813
0
0
13939
33494
3185
11096
11414
6434
1365
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
99543
12840
70854
59238
11616
15467
382
123977
14418
79426
60839
18587
30248
-115
106256
6732
68869
56661
12209
30950
-717
108271
7121
69259
56544
12715
31254
-262
104445
7190
64931
52816
12115
31317
-253
111338
8895
65428
52820
12608
35961
-129
109300
8816
66169
53186
12983
33194
-113
105416
5253
65931
52871
13060
33001
-116
105897
5569
65966
52760
13205
32858
-104
106082
5461
66090
52758
13333
33243
-275
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
123962
20938
64174
15305
16046
382
7118
144336
20566
70616
29886
14842
-115
8542
130224
7828
60616
31221
15991
-717
15285
133598
9776
60055
31266
15035
-262
17728
132165
9773
55461
31232
15035
-253
20916
138601
10457
55794
35788
14886
-129
21805
140330
10076
56516
32974
14886
-113
25992
141131
6140
56278
32464
18005
-116
28361
142066
6790
56218
32164
14782
-104
32217
16.9
51.8
12.3
12.9
5.7
14.2
48.9
20.7
10.3
5.9
6.0
46.5
24.0
12.3
11.7
7.3
45.0
23.4
11.3
13.3
7.4
42.0
23.6
11.4
15.8
7.5
40.3
25.8
10.7
15.7
7.2
40.3
23.5
10.6
18.5
4.4
39.9
23.0
12.8
20.1
222195
32640
288872
40416
299828
27398
304544
21805
314374
22729
340480
25246
358549
25550
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
26469
18244
4452
3075
697
0
0
35403
17623
5249
11140
1391
0
0
25369
5552
3383
15007
1427
0
0
27345
7566
3781
13808
2191
0
0
26286
7485
1535
14242
3024
0
0
29461
7994
1152
17890
2425
0
0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
80074
60888
72
0
19115
79615
61499
258
0
17857
78306
58634
1436
0
18237
77667
58629
2294
0
16744
74968
55407
2773
0
16788
Energy Branch Consumption
6372
6621
8136
6919
Non-Energy Uses
9407
8361
7041
7191
79537
97454
90587
25360
17346
8014
11985
9266
32926
30956
20335
10620
15114
11684
39701
1774
45947
12141
16205
0
3470
0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
0.8
0.9
0.9
-9.2
-1.6
-6.9
-5.9
-5.9 -100.0
-9.7 -100.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
-0.1
7.6
2.8
2.3
3.6
-2.8
1.2
4.5
3.5
0.5
25.0
2.6
4.8
41.1
10.7
4.0
11.5
26.2
1.9
0.8
-2.2
0.0
0.0
-0.3
1.5
0.1
0.8
1.9
2.2
10.2
104242
4611
65523
52235
13288
32970
-350
0.7
-6.3
-0.3
-0.4
0.5
7.2
0.0
-0.2
0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-0.1
0.1
-9.9
0.5
2.1
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.6
-7.7
-0.2
-3.2
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
5.8
142970
6449
56107
32428
13939
-275
34322
141294
5424
55312
31988
13939
-350
34982
0.5
-9.4
-0.6
7.4
0.0
0.0
7.9
0.1
2.2
-0.9
0.0
-0.6
-9.9
3.2
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.1
-7.7
2.2
0.0
-3.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
5.8
1.5
4.8
39.6
22.6
10.4
22.7
4.5
39.2
22.7
9.7
24.0
3.8
39.1
22.6
9.9
24.8
374400
26149
387420
27791
403020
28538
412858
29837
3.0
-1.7
0.5
-1.9
1.3
1.2
0.7
0.8
25562
7426
463
15464
2209
0
0
21213
3381
290
15484
2057
0
0
24888
4426
268
15350
3941
904
0
25461
4224
168
16077
3862
1130
0
23821
3417
48
15447
3778
1130
0
-0.4
-11.2
-2.7
17.2
7.4
0.0
0.0
0.4
3.0
-7.6
-0.5
7.8
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-11.3
0.8
-3.1
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-3.8
-10.7
0.0
2.7
0.0
0.0
75492
55705
3058
0
16729
76400
56271
3290
0
16839
79193
56054
3254
0
19885
75810
56110
3170
0
16530
75049
56146
3356
0
15547
74720
55739
3584
0
15397
-0.2
-0.4
34.9
0.0
-0.5
-0.4
-0.6
6.8
0.0
-0.8
0.2
0.2
1.7
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.4
0.0
-0.4
6699
6920
6692
6533
6266
6285
6153
2.5
-1.9
0.0
-0.4
7537
7878
8014
8063
8067
8054
8133
-2.9
0.7
0.6
0.1
92960
92444
97049
100934
102333
103329
104203
104718
1.3
0.2
0.9
0.2
23352
14562
8790
16478
13513
37244
24357
15222
9135
16988
13464
38152
25763
16278
9485
16797
13170
36715
27058
17085
9974
18144
13729
38118
27858
17711
10147
19269
13339
40468
28085
17795
10290
19914
13452
40882
27825
17599
10226
20087
13552
41865
28154
17728
10426
19911
13610
42528
28026
17352
10674
19722
13723
43247
-0.8
-1.7
0.9
3.2
3.8
1.2
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
0.8
0.8
0.7
1.4
0.1
1.0
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.3
1712
53146
17978
20827
0
3790
0
1261
46762
14571
22406
0
5588
0
1276
46075
15040
23714
194
6661
1
1313
43668
14604
24497
380
7977
4
1433
44317
15161
26653
577
8898
9
1546
45725
14899
28182
772
9791
19
1684
45744
14347
29475
894
10156
33
1363
46121
14060
30439
1224
10063
58
1302
46159
13504
31521
1397
10236
85
1170
45810
13444
32156
1705
10321
112
-3.4
0.2
1.8
3.3
0.0
4.9
13.3
0.4
-0.7
0.0
0.9
0.0
3.6
0.0
1.6
0.5
0.2
1.4
7.3
2.1
17.7
-1.4
0.0
-0.5
0.7
4.0
0.3
9.2
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
6610
8398
12874
16819
19346
20365
24469
27037
29104
30842
31714
6.9
4.2
2.4
1.3
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
391.0
364.5
146.4
218.1
272.8
70.6
16.3
43.5
19.9
14.1
108.4
21.9
69.8
366.2
162.3
203.9
276.0
75.8
14.1
45.4
19.1
13.2
108.4
25.8
64.4
355.7
161.0
194.7
261.2
69.2
13.7
47.0
17.3
11.8
102.2
29.6
64.9
372.1
174.6
197.5
274.9
78.6
14.0
48.6
17.7
11.0
105.1
31.6
65.6
360.5
160.3
200.2
268.7
68.3
13.6
48.7
17.9
9.4
110.9
26.8
64.9
338.0
136.5
201.6
245.0
45.9
13.4
47.9
17.6
8.3
111.9
26.0
67.1
325.7
122.9
202.9
236.0
40.7
12.4
43.4
16.8
7.9
114.8
21.6
68.1
293.8
90.0
203.8
220.1
26.7
12.3
42.0
15.9
7.3
116.0
4.1
69.7
294.3
89.6
204.6
219.7
29.1
11.4
40.3
14.7
7.0
117.2
3.1
71.4
-0.7
290.7
98.8
13.4
50.3
17.0
13.2
97.9
26.1
74.2
447.5
217.7
229.8
346.4
117.7
13.5
59.2
20.8
16.4
118.7
29.5
71.6
-0.6
-3.3
2.0
-1.5
1.6
0.7
1.0
-1.7
-0.6
0
-0.2
1.0
-1.1
-0.4
-0.2
-1.7
0.8
-1.4
-1.8
-0.6
3.1
-0.7
0
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.3
-2.3
0.8
-1.0
0.0
0
-1.0
-2.9
0.1
-1.0
-4.2
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
0.3
-10.2
0.5
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
135.50
155.00
126.30
126.90
123.20
128.90
124.90
117.10
112.90
101.80
102.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
140
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Spain: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
40.050
856.8
144.7
2.34
76.6
43.038
1005.9
143.5
2.40
81.5
45.989
1051.3
123.9
2.09
76.7
46.923
1118.9
119.4
2.07
75.8
47.961
1227.4
107.7
1.98
73.7
49.028
1395.9
99.3
1.98
75.0
49.961
1583.3
88.6
1.91
72.8
50.867
1723.5
81.9
1.74
69.7
51.714
1835.6
77.4
1.66
69.4
52.378
1933.4
73.9
1.54
69.0
52.688
2045.3
69.1
1.55
68.4
1.4
2.1
-1.5
-1.1
0.4
1.6
-1.4
-0.6
0.4
2.6
-1.9
-0.3
0.3
1.3
-1.2
-1.0
76.2
8.9
100.9
10.0
128.8
12.3
160.6
14.4
176.3
14.4
193.9
13.9
205.4
13.0
212.9
12.4
223.9
12.2
233.7
12.1
237.1
11.6
5.4
3.2
1.5
0.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
41.5
68.1
114.4
106.3
107.7
39.8
65.6
98.2
112.3
110.9
38.2
67.5
95.4
108.8
103.1
36.6
66.5
90.8
98.1
91.7
32.9
62.0
84.3
93.0
83.9
29.5
59.3
79.6
86.9
71.0
27.2
57.5
75.7
82.3
65.2
26.0
55.1
71.1
77.7
61.2
25.2
53.6
68.7
73.0
58.1
24.5
52.8
65.0
68.1
55.1
24.1
51.8
-0.2
1.2
1.0
-0.8
-0.1
-0.8
-1.3
-1.9
-1.5
-0.8
-1.3
-1.2
-2.5
-1.9
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.3
-0.6
-0.5
0.44
2.24
1.98
1.42
1.42
2.97
0.41
2.21
1.91
1.38
1.41
2.99
0.24
2.05
1.86
1.21
1.05
2.91
0.25
2.00
1.86
1.12
0.98
2.84
0.22
1.93
1.83
1.03
0.90
2.78
0.23
1.88
1.80
0.97
0.80
2.76
0.19
1.85
1.75
0.93
0.70
2.74
0.12
1.82
1.71
0.88
0.62
2.74
0.10
1.77
1.56
0.84
0.59
2.74
0.06
1.74
1.49
0.80
0.53
2.73
0.07
1.71
1.44
0.74
0.51
2.71
-6.2
-0.9
-0.6
-1.6
-3.0
-0.2
-0.8
-0.6
-0.2
-1.6
-1.5
-0.4
-1.5
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
-2.4
-0.2
-5.0
-0.4
-1.0
-1.1
-1.6
-0.1
8.0
0.4
8.2
1.2
13.7
4.9
17.7
7.8
20.6
10.2
20.6
11.1
23.7
11.7
25.9
11.9
27.6
11.8
29.0
12.6
29.7
13.3
222235
62206
79094
22578
21942
2100
29570
4727
18
0
0
47652
7579
14780
12533
2235
12
0
25294
4570
0
10987
6713
7091
503
0
0
288924
57539
84047
24420
80725
3104
17872
21176
41
0
0
68493
7579
23076
12993
10023
60
0
37838
5223
0
11091
20263
5600
884
0
0
299882
61990
25499
16562
97607
4676
42278
44165
6411
694
0
95422
7500
38679
13513
20567
4598
0
49244
4812
0
10864
31560
5737
1083
0
0
304544
58274
33847
15425
83749
10047
30578
56421
16144
58
0
104382
7052
46876
14151
25028
7667
30
50454
4821
0
10864
34121
4295
1174
0
0
314374
58274
33432
7387
86237
13792
31846
56876
26473
58
0
109809
7052
52407
14509
25213
12655
30
50350
5409
0
10527
34219
4256
1349
0
0
340480
57733
36541
5510
107679
11234
33966
58271
29487
58
0
110661
6982
54842
14830
25828
14154
30
48836
5798
0
10006
33957
3520
1354
0
0
358549
57733
33978
2173
91741
10371
35967
90621
35906
58
0
123306
6982
67755
15073
35707
16945
30
48568
6028
0
9335
33914
3513
1806
0
0
374400
72167
14642
1328
89040
9620
35331
105747
46468
58
0
134100
8738
77571
15447
40333
21761
30
47791
6468
667
8822
33657
3507
1805
0
0
387420
62321
16902
1329
88656
16112
36145
111698
53147
1109
0
137643
7557
82755
15655
42155
24916
30
47330
6484
1903
8605
33454
2774
2378
0
120
403020
60909
15992
863
86307
16004
36347
127205
58022
1372
0
136969
7393
89581
15892
46891
26767
30
39996
6860
11024
7631
28130
1696
2389
0
150
412858
60909
14364
292
90895
16078
37031
132720
59195
1372
0
142482
7393
92272
16132
48577
27532
30
42817
7494
5702
2426
36326
1003
2912
0
150
3.0
0.0
-10.7
-3.1
16.1
8.3
3.6
25.0
80.0
0.0
0.0
7.2
-0.1
10.1
0.8
24.9
81.3
0.0
6.9
0.5
0.0
-0.1
16.7
-2.1
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
-0.6
2.7
-7.8
-1.2
11.4
-2.8
2.6
15.2
-21.9
0.0
1.4
-0.6
3.1
0.7
2.1
10.7
0.0
0.2
1.2
0.0
-0.3
0.8
-2.9
2.2
0.0
0.0
1.3
-0.1
0.2
-11.5
0.6
-2.8
1.2
4.8
3.1
0.0
0.0
1.2
-0.1
2.6
0.4
3.5
3.0
0.0
-0.4
1.1
0.0
-1.2
-0.1
-1.9
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.3
-4.2
-9.5
0.0
2.2
0.1
1.9
2.5
17.1
0.0
0.7
0.3
1.6
0.3
1.6
2.5
0.0
-0.6
1.1
0.0
-6.5
0.3
-6.1
2.4
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
50.8
46.2
34.6
32.3
31.8
34.1
32.3
31.2
31.4
32.8
32.3
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
40.8
9.2
0.0
44.4
28.0
16.4
46.7
7.8
0.0
34.5
19.9
14.6
49.2
7.4
0.0
53.4
20.7
32.8
45.0
8.3
0.0
56.3
19.1
37.2
46.1
9.2
0.0
59.6
18.5
41.0
47.0
8.5
0.0
56.0
17.0
39.1
46.5
8.4
0.0
64.3
16.1
48.2
46.5
7.2
0.1
72.0
19.3
52.7
42.9
7.8
0.4
72.4
16.1
56.3
40.7
8.0
0.4
74.4
15.1
59.3
44.4
8.4
1.6
74.4
14.8
59.7
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
476.1
50.3
310.2
25.4
88.6
1.6
535.4
53.2
346.4
27.6
106.5
1.7
539.1
50.9
351.8
28.6
106.2
1.6
569.6
52.9
363.8
33.1
118.1
1.7
599.9
55.0
373.0
38.2
131.9
1.8
683.4
59.1
425.1
47.2
150.1
2.0
778.2
63.5
483.2
58.3
170.9
2.3
826.8
66.6
506.3
63.3
188.1
2.4
877.8
69.9
529.4
68.7
207.3
2.5
916.7
72.1
545.9
72.2
223.9
2.6
957.4
74.4
562.9
75.9
241.4
2.7
1.3
0.1
1.3
1.2
1.8
0.2
1.1
0.8
0.6
2.9
2.2
0.9
2.6
1.4
2.6
4.3
2.6
2.5
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.3
1.7
0.8
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
191.4
148.7
11.6
31.1
278.5
233.2
11.6
33.7
246.6
210.1
9.2
27.3
259.7
220.9
10.2
28.6
273.5
232.3
11.3
29.9
302.8
257.1
13.0
32.7
335.3
284.7
15.0
35.7
351.5
298.8
15.8
36.9
368.5
313.7
16.6
38.2
378.9
322.9
17.1
39.0
389.5
332.3
17.5
39.7
2.6
3.5
-2.3
-1.3
1.0
1.0
2.1
0.9
2.1
2.1
2.8
1.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
32780
662
14008
11534
705
4486
13860
39554
688
14540
16434
1024
5323
15440
37233
648
13950
15298
898
5389
10500
38139
666
13737
15879
956
5804
10970
36701
670
12271
15513
1001
6105
11400
38103
698
12243
16438
1075
6402
12480
40452
730
13061
17675
1161
6462
13640
40866
749
13257
17763
1139
6560
13980
41848
773
13558
18139
1128
6814
14350
42510
787
13755
18433
1107
6979
14500
43228
802
14037
18620
1086
7220
14630
1.3
-0.2
0.0
2.9
2.5
1.9
-2.7
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-1.3
0.1
1.1
1.3
0.8
0.0
1.0
0.9
0.6
1.3
1.5
0.6
1.8
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.3
-0.3
0.6
0.4
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
141
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Sweden: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
30052
162
0
40
14785
15066
6757
8264
39
5
0
34233
211
0
44
18670
15308
6260
8961
80
6
0
33097
238
0
18
14917
17923
5709
11902
301
11
0
36505
221
0
0
16430
19854
5858
13153
787
56
0
37829
210
0
0
17384
20234
5885
13264
982
102
0
39366
248
0
0
18492
20626
5931
13429
1098
168
0
39680
0
0
0
19039
20642
5994
13319
1137
192
0
41317
0
0
0
20146
21171
5986
13399
1575
211
0
42630
0
0
0
21171
21459
6005
13620
1618
216
0
43825
0
0
0
21731
22093
6013
13828
2024
228
0
43809
0
0
0
21258
22551
6022
13856
2446
228
0
1.0
1.3
0.5
4.0
-1.2 -100.0
-6.7 -100.0
0.0
-7.6 -100.0
0.0
0.1
1.5
0.9
1.8
1.2
0.2
-1.7
0.3
0.2
3.7
1.1
0.0
22.6
12.5
1.5
7.3
24.9
6.5
0.0
0.0
0.3
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
19188
2409
15601
20331
-4730
776
402
20206
2556
17443
20098
-2655
843
-636
19467
2548
15427
19450
-4023
1313
179
19366
2736
15211
19128
-3917
1518
-367
17768
2820
14182
17992
-3810
1736
-1517
17256
2977
13613
17186
-3574
1392
-1566
17069
3104
13177
16514
-3337
1333
-1665
16537
2987
13228
16203
-2976
1336
-2438
16498
2559
13388
15944
-2556
1437
-2641
16518
2299
13605
15757
-2151
1719
-3206
16801
2328
13716
15501
-1785
2091
-3765
0.1
0.6
-0.1
-0.4
-1.6
5.4
-7.8
-0.9
1.0
-0.8
-0.8
-0.5
2.8
0.0
-0.4
1.0
-0.7
-0.9
-1.3
-2.6
0.9
-0.1
-1.4
0.2
-0.3
-3.1
2.3
4.2
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
47660
2452
14139
816
14785
402
15066
51739
2629
14882
886
18670
-636
15308
51352
2492
14509
1331
14917
179
17923
53594
2957
12949
1503
16430
-367
20122
53330
3030
11979
1673
17384
-1517
20781
54102
3226
11231
1254
18492
-1566
21465
54181
3104
10785
1156
19039
-1665
21763
55076
2987
10725
1060
20146
-2438
22595
56257
2559
10871
1082
21171
-2641
23214
57298
2299
11003
1277
21731
-3206
24194
57471
2328
11063
1606
21258
-3765
24982
0.7
0.2
0.3
5.0
0.1
-7.8
1.8
0.4
2.0
-1.9
2.3
1.5
0.0
1.5
0.2
0.2
-1.0
-3.6
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.3
-1.4
0.1
1.7
0.6
4.2
0.7
5.1
29.7
1.7
31.0
31.6
5.1
28.8
1.7
36.1
29.6
4.9
28.3
2.6
29.0
34.9
5.5
24.2
2.8
30.7
37.5
5.7
22.5
3.1
32.6
39.0
6.0
20.8
2.3
34.2
39.7
5.7
19.9
2.1
35.1
40.2
5.4
19.5
1.9
36.6
41.0
4.5
19.3
1.9
37.6
41.3
4.0
19.2
2.2
37.9
42.2
4.1
19.2
2.8
37.0
43.5
145205
18770
158337
17745
148479
15560
161881
16658
171978
16546
177016
17142
180905
17653
191989
18200
197829
18833
209669
19891
220189
21075
0.2
-1.9
1.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
1.0
0.9
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
3262
462
277
440
2083
0
0
4473
508
317
490
3158
0
0
6532
597
426
1018
4491
0
0
6143
716
187
1211
4029
0
0
8079
721
60
1334
5964
0
0
7238
724
35
754
5725
0
0
6592
713
22
721
5136
0
0
6813
697
16
709
5392
0
0
6799
431
49
692
5627
0
0
6752
106
53
947
5646
0
0
7518
100
56
1296
6065
0
0
7.2
2.6
4.4
8.8
8.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
1.9
-17.8
2.7
2.9
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-0.1
-9.6
-6.0
-1.5
0.0
0.0
0.7
-9.3
4.8
3.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
39360
21632
0
1213
16516
42800
20828
135
1336
20501
40006
21354
401
1615
16636
43210
21108
475
3308
18320
42453
19934
561
2475
19483
42436
19136
565
1948
20786
42201
18467
579
1913
21242
42713
18183
597
1744
22189
43297
17954
598
1764
22981
44300
17814
618
2227
23641
43910
17603
668
2351
23287
0.2
-0.1
0.0
2.9
0.1
0.6
-0.7
3.4
4.4
1.6
-0.1
-0.8
0.3
-2.5
0.9
0.2
-0.2
0.7
1.0
0.5
Energy Branch Consumption
1509
1514
1611
1719
1740
1762
1764
1798
1828
1928
2029
0.7
0.8
0.1
0.7
Non-Energy Uses
1731
2293
2005
1958
1958
1969
1993
2048
2084
2091
2098
1.5
-0.2
0.2
0.3
34851
33554
34436
34929
33255
34110
34310
34523
34956
35516
35722
-0.1
-0.3
0.3
0.2
14264
10610
3654
7294
5205
8088
12557
9348
3209
7302
5108
8587
12597
9557
3040
7558
5631
8649
13164
9703
3461
7592
5548
8625
12604
9166
3439
7157
5320
8174
13453
9901
3553
7218
5526
7912
13870
10238
3633
7271
5421
7749
14032
10301
3730
7307
5444
7740
14331
10403
3928
7331
5427
7866
14633
10444
4189
7401
5480
8001
14678
10217
4461
7463
5438
8143
-1.2
-1.0
-1.8
0.4
0.8
0.7
0.0
-0.4
1.2
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
1.0
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.2
-0.5
0.3
0.0
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
1115
13151
673
11068
3550
5294
0
1346
11388
694
11238
4174
4715
0
1202
10092
618
11283
5141
6100
0
1175
9481
657
11771
5307
6528
10
1196
8784
754
11487
5300
5651
84
1315
8136
917
11802
4943
6875
123
1268
7743
812
11985
4704
7668
132
1270
7648
677
12097
4721
7988
123
1254
7735
660
12319
4605
8275
109
1248
7826
657
12653
4638
8380
113
1205
7889
682
12885
4747
8193
121
0.8
-2.6
-0.8
0.2
3.8
1.4
0.0
-0.1
-1.4
2.0
0.2
0.3
-0.8
0.0
0.6
-1.3
0.7
0.4
-1.2
3.1
4.7
-0.3
0.1
-0.9
0.4
0.0
0.3
-0.5
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.0
0.2
3.9
0.9
0.8
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
13722
14414
17510
18930
19078
19961
20053
20663
21054
21583
22317
2.5
0.9
0.5
0.5
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
73.2
67.1
25.8
41.3
49.4
9.6
2.0
10.5
0.4
2.7
24.2
3.8
13.9
65.6
26.1
39.5
48.0
9.5
2.1
10.2
0.4
1.9
23.9
3.6
14.0
63.8
26.4
37.3
46.1
10.0
2.1
9.7
0.3
1.9
22.1
3.8
13.9
61.8
25.6
36.3
43.8
7.6
2.0
10.8
0.3
2.0
21.1
3.8
14.3
59.1
23.9
35.2
41.7
7.7
1.9
9.5
0.2
1.9
20.4
3.0
14.4
58.0
23.1
34.9
40.6
8.0
1.9
8.3
0.2
1.9
20.3
2.9
14.6
56.5
21.5
35.0
38.9
6.4
1.8
7.9
0.2
1.9
20.7
2.8
14.7
54.7
19.4
35.2
39.0
6.1
1.9
7.9
0.1
1.9
21.0
0.7
15.0
52.1
16.5
35.6
36.2
3.4
1.9
7.6
0.1
1.9
21.2
0.6
15.4
-0.9
55.3
6.8
2.0
16.2
2.9
4.5
22.9
3.1
14.8
70.6
26.1
44.5
52.1
7.4
1.9
13.7
1.4
3.2
24.5
3.3
15.1
-1.1
3.5
0.4
-4.3
-17.8
-4.8
0.5
1.9
-0.6
0
-0.5
0.3
-1.0
-0.7
0.4
0.1
-0.7
-2.7
-3.5
-0.9
-0.1
0.0
0
-0.8
-1.0
-0.6
-1.0
-2.6
-0.6
-0.2
-2.6
0.2
-0.8
-2.2
0.3
0
-0.6
-1.8
0.1
-0.7
-3.9
-0.1
-1.1
-3.2
-0.1
0.2
-8.1
0.3
0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
98.80
95.20
90.50
88.60
86.10
83.50
79.80
78.30
76.20
73.80
70.40
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
142
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
Sweden: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
8.861
283.3
168.2
1.16
39.2
9.011
323.5
159.9
1.01
37.7
9.341
349.2
147.0
0.96
36.5
9.732
388.9
137.8
0.90
34.7
10.072
423.6
125.9
0.86
32.0
10.355
463.1
116.8
0.81
30.5
10.578
505.2
107.3
0.77
30.1
10.746
551.4
99.9
0.74
28.6
10.898
603.1
93.3
0.69
27.9
11.060
659.7
86.9
0.68
27.4
11.231
717.0
80.2
0.63
27.7
0.5
2.1
-1.3
-1.9
0.8
2.0
-1.5
-1.1
0.5
1.8
-1.6
-1.1
0.3
1.8
-1.4
-1.0
31.7
11.2
40.4
12.5
47.9
13.7
53.1
13.7
58.6
13.8
58.3
12.6
60.4
12.0
63.3
11.5
66.9
11.1
70.7
10.7
74.5
10.4
4.2
2.0
0.3
1.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
44.1
36.1
68.7
89.6
88.8
42.5
40.1
69.3
84.3
89.2
41.8
37.7
65.0
75.1
78.6
38.9
36.0
58.3
64.3
68.7
34.1
33.7
58.4
58.7
64.7
30.9
31.0
56.5
53.6
57.6
28.2
29.2
53.9
48.8
52.5
27.1
28.2
51.3
44.3
47.5
26.7
27.4
48.8
40.4
43.6
26.3
26.9
45.2
37.0
39.7
25.9
26.5
-3.6
-1.7
-1.1
-0.5
0.4
-1.7
-2.7
-2.6
-2.0
-1.1
-0.3
-1.8
-1.7
-1.9
-1.4
-1.1
-1.8
-1.8
-0.4
-0.5
0.04
1.34
1.14
0.40
0.86
2.83
0.04
1.28
1.09
0.20
0.62
2.86
0.05
1.10
0.83
0.05
0.48
2.79
0.04
1.04
0.78
0.05
0.35
2.77
0.04
1.02
0.77
0.04
0.36
2.70
0.03
1.00
0.80
0.04
0.37
2.67
0.03
0.94
0.69
0.03
0.36
2.64
0.03
0.89
0.59
0.03
0.35
2.63
0.03
0.88
0.55
0.02
0.36
2.63
0.02
0.87
0.54
0.02
0.35
2.62
0.01
0.86
0.52
0.02
0.35
2.60
2.4
-1.9
-3.1
-18.1
-5.6
-0.1
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-2.2
-2.9
-0.3
-2.7
-0.9
-1.2
-2.7
0.0
-0.2
-4.7
-0.4
-1.4
-3.3
-0.1
-0.1
36.7
1.9
40.3
3.5
48.1
6.5
50.6
8.3
53.4
11.9
54.6
13.8
54.5
15.2
55.8
15.9
56.2
15.9
56.7
16.5
58.2
17.5
145231
57316
1706
1533
1292
4342
78584
457
1
0
0
32778
9786
15756
15522
231
3
0
7236
4940
0
527
554
3777
2377
0
0
158365
72377
1169
1379
1342
8357
72803
936
2
0
0
33409
9850
16661
16147
510
4
0
6898
3950
0
481
408
2501
3508
0
0
148506
57828
1770
1774
3828
13397
66398
3502
9
0
0
36314
9275
18437
16407
2019
11
0
8602
5523
0
482
1107
3264
3749
0
0
161881
63650
735
589
2498
17133
68113
9152
12
0
0
38687
9280
21053
17394
3646
13
0
8354
5463
0
482
1116
2826
3930
0
0
171978
67330
1218
294
3565
19542
68434
11421
174
0
0
40135
9282
22413
17784
4447
182
0
8441
5904
0
483
1357
2198
4403
0
0
177016
71710
1233
173
1879
20051
68966
12767
238
0
0
40366
9271
23403
18218
4937
247
0
7692
5060
0
479
1347
1420
4447
0
0
180905
73830
1207
109
1716
20886
69694
13224
239
0
0
40473
9271
23674
18319
5107
248
0
7528
5196
0
479
1280
1135
4634
0
0
191989
78409
1311
81
2267
21740
69606
18314
260
0
0
42633
9654
25587
18429
6888
269
0
7393
5179
0
479
1256
973
4685
0
0
197829
82691
733
90
1749
23651
69826
18809
279
0
0
43583
10173
25891
18551
7051
289
0
7518
5276
0
358
1073
952
5135
0
0
209669
88206
181
151
2645
24743
69924
23538
282
0
0
45836
10750
27597
18684
8622
292
0
7490
5186
0
69
1204
950
5266
0
0
220189
89518
171
154
5477
26124
70018
28442
282
0
0
48205
10807
29385
18828
10265
292
0
8013
5237
353
66
1501
928
5519
0
0
0.2
1.5
0.1
1.5
0.4
-3.7
1.5
-16.5
11.5
-0.7
11.9
3.8
-1.7
0.3
22.6
12.5
19.7
35.1
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
-0.5
0.0
1.6
2.0
0.6
0.8
24.2
8.2
13.9
32.4
0.0
0.0
1.7
-0.2
1.1
0.7
0.0
0.0
-0.9
0.0
7.2
2.1
-1.5
-3.9
4.7
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.9
-0.1
-9.4
-7.1
0.7
0.2
1.5
3.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.3
1.4
3.2
0.0
-1.1
-1.3
0.0
-0.1
-0.6
-6.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
-9.3
1.7
6.0
1.1
0.0
3.9
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.8
1.1
0.1
3.6
0.8
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
-9.5
0.8
-1.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
49.3
52.8
45.6
46.0
47.1
48.3
49.2
49.6
49.9
50.2
50.0
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
23.4
5.9
0.0
96.9
39.5
57.4
23.5
6.7
0.0
97.5
45.7
51.8
27.3
12.5
0.0
95.0
38.9
56.1
29.3
11.7
0.0
97.6
39.3
58.3
26.2
13.1
0.0
97.0
39.2
57.9
27.7
13.2
0.0
98.1
40.5
57.6
31.2
13.2
0.0
98.3
40.8
57.5
32.1
13.2
0.0
98.1
40.8
57.3
33.2
13.3
0.0
98.7
41.8
56.9
35.3
13.2
0.0
98.6
42.1
56.5
36.5
13.2
1.3
97.4
40.7
56.7
132.3
9.5
92.4
10.2
14.2
6.1
137.1
8.8
98.1
11.0
13.5
5.8
142.0
8.6
100.1
13.5
14.2
5.6
150.8
9.1
105.0
14.4
16.3
6.0
159.0
9.8
108.7
15.4
18.7
6.4
168.8
10.1
114.0
16.2
21.8
6.7
178.1
10.6
118.1
17.1
25.3
6.9
184.4
10.9
120.7
17.7
27.9
7.1
190.2
11.2
122.5
18.3
30.8
7.3
196.0
11.5
124.6
18.9
33.5
7.5
202.2
11.8
126.8
19.5
36.5
7.6
0.7
-1.0
0.8
2.8
0.0
-0.9
1.1
1.4
0.8
1.3
2.8
1.4
1.1
0.8
0.8
1.1
3.1
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.7
1.8
0.5
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
62.5
35.6
19.5
7.4
68.6
38.6
21.7
8.4
72.2
36.3
23.5
12.4
76.6
38.2
25.3
13.2
81.4
40.2
27.2
13.9
87.1
41.8
30.4
14.9
93.2
43.3
33.9
16.0
97.6
45.0
35.7
16.9
102.2
46.7
37.6
17.9
106.0
48.4
39.0
18.6
109.8
50.1
40.4
19.4
1.5
0.2
1.9
5.4
1.2
1.0
1.5
1.1
1.4
0.7
2.2
1.4
0.8
0.7
0.9
1.0
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
8088
143
4556
2006
299
928
1550
8587
130
4678
2543
246
846
1420
8651
127
4782
2507
208
840
1870
8624
134
4599
2527
220
944
1990
8173
141
4043
2498
237
1041
2120
7911
141
3715
2438
252
1145
2200
7748
143
3520
2433
270
1155
2280
7739
143
3462
2460
272
1170
2320
7865
144
3457
2499
278
1253
2360
8000
145
3457
2551
274
1336
2380
8142
146
3470
2619
271
1395
2400
0.7
-1.2
0.5
2.3
-3.6
-1.0
1.9
0.0
-0.6
1.1
-1.7
0.0
1.3
2.2
1.3
0.0
-0.5
0.1
-1.4
-0.3
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.0
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.0
0.9
0.3
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
143
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
United Kingdom: Reference scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
270137
18658
129530
97554
21942
2453
437
1922
81
11
1
204270
11899
87786
79397
21054
4134
423
3430
250
30
1
148109
10751
64141
51468
16029
5720
310
4444
876
90
1
130226
11394
50743
41748
16255
10086
465
5965
2848
803
5
111180
9983
39815
32705
7941
20736
464
8056
9857
2317
42
95544
11182
30831
25095
5563
22873
463
8227
11305
2786
93
82429
5917
23832
19580
8462
24638
464
8068
13058
2907
143
74225
4425
17758
13514
11461
27067
463
8424
14977
3018
185
69447
3794
12274
8638
16525
28217
463
8778
15952
2814
210
60779
3485
6812
4413
17477
28591
464
8535
16168
3199
226
54307
2669
2536
1739
17477
29884
463
8450
17573
3159
239
-5.8
-5.4
-6.8
-6.2
-3.1
8.8
-3.4
8.7
26.8
23.0
0.0
-2.8
-0.7
-4.7
-4.4
-6.8
13.7
4.1
6.1
27.4
38.4
48.9
-2.9
-5.1
-5.0
-5.0
0.6
1.7
0.0
0.0
2.9
2.3
13.0
-2.1
-3.9
-10.6
-11.4
3.7
1.0
0.0
0.2
1.5
0.4
2.6
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results
-39661
14454
-46024
-39602
-6422
-9311
1219
31733
27222
-2592
4552
-7144
5973
715
60700
15740
11302
12975
-1673
31968
229
79199
17461
22915
24187
-1272
35944
838
74397
7680
27953
29315
-1362
34712
1188
84421
3215
34931
35521
-589
42155
1082
91372
1025
40270
40163
107
46009
978
98031
1250
45612
44710
902
46845
980
105701
1581
50390
48585
1805
49231
889
116354
1474
55640
52840
2800
54712
896
123212
2101
60324
56342
3982
56239
831
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
-12.6
0.0
-15.4
2.1
-6.9
9.5
8.5
-2.0
0.8
17.9
2.1
-18.2
3.7
3.2
0.0
2.9
-1.9
1.5
3.7
2.0
1.7
19.8
1.0
-0.8
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
231729
36516
82200
87399
21942
1219
2453
233400
37737
83873
85473
21054
715
4548
212629
30457
73919
84814
16029
229
7181
206933
28856
71174
77684
16255
838
12126
183020
17662
65245
67383
7941
1188
23600
177409
14397
63273
67185
5563
1082
25911
171188
6941
61572
65506
8462
978
27729
169566
5675
60801
60237
11461
980
30412
172374
5375
60058
57701
16525
889
31826
174282
4960
59931
58795
17477
896
32222
174539
4771
60267
57592
17477
831
33601
-0.9
-1.8
-1.1
-0.3
-3.1
-15.4
11.3
-1.5
-5.3
-1.2
-2.3
-6.8
17.9
12.6
-0.7
-8.9
-0.6
-0.3
0.6
-1.9
1.6
0.1
-1.9
-0.1
-0.6
3.7
-0.8
1.0
15.8
35.5
37.7
9.5
1.1
16.2
35.9
36.6
9.0
1.9
14.3
34.8
39.9
7.5
3.4
13.9
34.4
37.5
7.9
5.9
9.7
35.6
36.8
4.3
12.9
8.1
35.7
37.9
3.1
14.6
4.1
36.0
38.3
4.9
16.2
3.3
35.9
35.5
6.8
17.9
3.1
34.8
33.5
9.6
18.5
2.8
34.4
33.7
10.0
18.5
2.7
34.5
33.0
10.0
19.3
374308
48243
395354
46542
377911
43689
378836
47128
356074
40616
363790
39582
373960
38310
390507
39806
422981
43176
447085
45663
454792
46137
0.1
-1.0
-0.6
-0.7
0.5
-0.6
1.0
0.9
Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
56133
28027
767
26034
1304
0
0
60361
29535
1000
26641
3185
0
0
57472
23521
752
29439
3760
0
0
51448
22146
306
25593
3402
0
0
37645
11847
327
21289
4149
32
0
35902
9218
396
21795
4424
68
0
29047
1822
392
22595
4132
107
0
25362
942
422
19293
4575
131
0
24409
878
435
18018
4922
155
0
25544
668
438
19481
4776
179
0
24532
636
396
18220
5086
194
0
0.2
-1.7
-0.2
1.2
11.2
0.0
0.0
-4.1
-6.6
-8.0
-3.2
1.0
0.0
0.0
-2.6
-17.1
1.8
0.6
0.0
12.8
0.0
-0.8
-5.1
0.0
-1.1
1.0
3.0
0.0
Fuel Input to other conversion processes
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.
122735
89911
0
3201
29623
117156
88250
68
2124
26714
99795
75278
1127
2258
21131
97954
73451
1939
897
21668
84394
67556
3210
898
12729
78778
64853
3252
726
9947
79194
62556
3256
615
12766
80520
61092
3369
549
15510
83806
59575
3397
409
20425
83554
58451
3463
407
21233
82815
57749
3586
414
21065
-2.0
-1.8
0.0
-3.4
-3.3
-1.7
-1.1
11.0
-8.8
-4.9
-0.6
-0.8
0.1
-3.7
0.0
0.2
-0.4
0.5
-2.0
2.5
Energy Branch Consumption
14944
16104
13542
12864
10608
9398
8491
7758
7239
6750
6352
-1.0
-2.4
-2.2
-1.4
Non-Energy Uses
11323
11205
8084
8765
9445
9383
9357
9323
9215
9070
9006
-3.3
1.6
-0.1
-0.2
152576
152311
142950
142898
134101
133004
130740
130341
131612
133483
134529
-0.6
-0.6
-0.3
0.1
36873
19391
17483
43033
20362
52307
33390
16519
16871
44151
19675
55095
28248
13416
14832
44633
17508
52562
29326
14387
14939
44651
16414
52507
27981
13505
14476
42040
15151
48929
27267
12889
14378
42631
14875
48230
27351
12548
14803
41273
14405
47710
26554
11975
14580
41282
14589
47917
26205
11468
14737
41753
15337
48317
26218
11167
15051
42182
16137
48945
26184
10807
15377
42070
16323
49953
-2.6
-3.6
-1.6
0.4
-1.5
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.6
-1.4
-0.7
-0.2
-0.7
0.2
-0.2
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.7
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.2
5956
63047
52180
28325
2439
630
0
4579
65413
50380
29981
1268
690
0
3962
60323
46917
28230
1285
2232
0
4162
57701
46111
28634
1139
5128
23
3566
51951
41032
27709
1524
8239
79
3249
50460
40873
28381
1579
8350
113
3266
48959
39159
29278
1442
8495
141
3033
48433
37843
30548
1620
8691
173
2880
47990
37156
32896
1719
8751
219
2746
48104
37249
34735
1754
8632
262
2667
48512
37733
35283
1787
8256
290
-4.0
-0.4
-1.1
0.0
-6.2
13.5
0.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.3
-0.2
1.7
14.0
0.0
-0.9
-0.6
-0.5
0.6
-0.6
0.3
6.0
-1.0
0.0
-0.2
0.9
1.1
-0.1
3.7
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
1430
2071
4658
9615
20789
22220
23946
26312
27813
28033
29719
12.5
16.1
1.4
1.1
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
707.5
621.5
273.9
347.6
518.6
178.2
29.0
54.5
83.1
19.8
154.0
15.1
87.8
590.1
256.2
334.0
489.6
157.8
27.0
56.8
80.1
16.1
151.7
16.2
84.4
496.4
193.8
302.6
398.2
103.2
22.6
50.8
71.8
13.0
136.8
17.5
80.7
474.1
179.5
294.6
377.7
92.2
19.9
48.1
71.6
11.7
134.2
17.0
79.4
428.4
146.3
282.1
338.3
62.9
18.2
48.2
67.4
9.7
131.9
14.5
75.5
401.6
125.5
276.1
312.8
47.3
16.1
43.5
65.2
9.2
131.5
13.4
75.4
392.8
119.9
272.9
304.3
44.0
14.6
41.3
64.4
8.2
131.8
12.6
75.9
390.3
116.1
274.2
305.5
46.5
13.2
40.3
65.0
7.8
132.7
7.3
77.4
389.0
112.4
276.6
303.5
43.4
12.3
40.6
64.3
8.3
134.7
6.8
78.7
-1.3
566.4
194.2
31.3
77.4
82.6
26.9
154.0
20.7
120.5
691.0
314.7
376.3
572.3
199.6
35.2
67.6
80.4
25.3
164.2
20.4
98.3
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
-3.4
0.1
-3.0
0.0
-3.1
-3.1
0
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-2.6
-5.3
-2.5
-0.7
-1.4
-4.1
-1.2
1.5
-0.8
0
-1.5
-2.8
-0.7
-1.6
-4.8
-2.1
-0.5
-0.6
-2.9
-0.4
-1.9
-0.7
0
-0.5
-1.3
-0.1
-0.5
-1.8
-2.0
-0.9
-0.2
-0.8
0.1
-3.7
0.2
0
90.80
88.60
79.70
75.70
63.70
60.80
55.00
51.50
50.40
50.10
49.90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
144
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
APPENDIX 2
United Kingdom: Reference scenario
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50
Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M€10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M€10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
58.785
1444.8
160.4
2.44
-17.0
60.039
1664.7
140.2
2.45
13.5
62.027
1706.3
124.6
2.44
28.3
64.148
1835.1
112.8
2.37
37.8
66.292
2023.8
90.4
2.18
40.1
68.350
2229.4
79.6
2.13
46.9
70.208
2445.4
70.0
1.98
52.6
71.874
2687.2
63.1
1.84
56.9
73.443
2965.4
58.1
1.77
60.3
74.962
3271.0
53.3
1.75
65.7
76.406
3581.8
48.7
1.74
69.4
0.5
1.7
-2.5
0.0
0.7
1.7
-3.2
-1.1
0.6
1.9
-2.5
-1.0
0.4
1.9
-1.8
-0.6
162.6
11.3
162.9
9.8
184.4
10.8
222.0
12.1
260.0
12.8
278.3
12.5
293.4
12.0
305.0
11.3
312.1
10.5
326.2
10.0
342.8
9.6
1.3
3.5
1.2
0.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
46.1
62.9
93.0
87.2
79.9
47.1
61.8
83.4
87.6
67.4
45.2
67.5
81.1
82.4
58.7
42.6
66.6
73.0
71.1
48.6
37.5
61.0
67.0
65.9
43.0
34.1
59.3
63.6
58.3
37.6
31.7
55.5
58.3
53.0
34.4
30.3
55.0
54.4
48.4
32.5
29.3
53.4
51.6
44.0
30.7
28.8
52.6
49.1
39.6
28.2
28.6
51.8
-1.8
-1.3
-3.9
-0.2
0.7
-1.3
-2.1
-3.2
-1.9
-1.0
-1.4
-2.0
-2.5
-1.7
-0.9
-1.3
-1.9
-1.4
-0.5
-0.3
0.48
2.23
2.10
1.92
1.32
2.94
0.49
2.22
2.02
1.82
1.29
2.98
0.45
2.18
1.93
1.86
1.13
2.93
0.40
2.13
1.94
1.80
0.98
2.89
0.27
2.03
1.82
1.71
0.86
2.80
0.24
2.00
1.76
1.68
0.78
2.78
0.16
1.97
1.76
1.63
0.68
2.76
0.11
1.91
1.64
1.58
0.63
2.75
0.10
1.87
1.58
1.54
0.53
2.73
0.10
1.84
1.54
1.54
0.48
2.71
0.09
1.84
1.55
1.53
0.51
2.70
-0.6
-0.3
-0.8
-0.3
-1.5
0.0
-4.9
-0.7
-0.6
-0.8
-2.7
-0.5
-5.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.5
-2.4
-0.1
-2.8
-0.3
-0.6
-0.3
-1.4
-0.1
0.9
0.0
1.3
0.2
3.2
2.9
6.7
5.2
15.5
10.1
16.8
11.0
18.5
11.9
20.3
12.8
21.2
13.4
21.1
13.9
22.2
14.8
374375
85063
119950
8446
150427
4455
5086
947
1
0
0
74755
13038
1870
1462
406
2
0
59846
5794
0
26097
26612
5819
1319
0
0
395425
81618
134637
5339
154339
11658
4922
2904
8
0
0
80254
10962
2796
1453
1332
11
0
66496
5425
0
25930
33444
5442
1680
0
0
377979
62140
107695
4861
176101
13362
3604
10183
33
0
0
91185
10399
6876
1595
5204
77
0
73910
4310
0
25256
40990
5520
2144
0
0
378836
61901
105609
1657
154161
14704
5402
33120
1516
766
0
97797
9585
15648
1622
12140
1574
312
72564
5579
0
19089
47011
4192
2273
0
0
356074
29981
58060
1796
120687
17693
5397
114619
5767
2073
0
110945
3708
47064
1622
38627
5985
830
60173
7222
448
7220
48907
1307
2735
0
4
363790
22177
45608
2055
125667
19197
5388
131449
8262
3988
0
118038
2802
55819
1622
44340
8263
1594
59416
7600
448
5527
49617
1147
3117
0
9
373960
34923
9629
2246
139003
17993
5392
151832
8907
4033
0
123687
4402
62789
1622
50721
8853
1594
56496
7996
448
3989
47937
1052
3504
0
14
390507
48103
5207
2484
121076
20898
5386
174152
9140
4061
0
133987
6056
70309
1622
58028
9065
1594
57622
9195
947
2142
50924
966
3573
0
17
422981
70364
4785
2612
118384
22726
5381
185490
9148
4090
0
143320
8850
73965
1642
61656
9073
1594
60505
10709
947
2142
53349
819
4174
0
21
447085
76479
3763
2650
131000
21942
5391
188001
9213
8645
0
149805
9600
76664
1682
62410
9133
3440
63540
10954
947
725
57668
866
4257
0
24
454792
76479
3573
2368
122377
22089
5389
204340
9279
8898
0
156263
9600
81833
1769
67334
9193
3536
64830
11465
947
471
58923
757
4654
0
26
0.1
-3.1
-1.1
-5.4
1.6
11.6
-3.4
26.8
42.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
-2.2
13.9
0.9
29.1
44.1
0.0
2.1
-2.9
0.0
-0.3
4.4
-0.5
5.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
-7.0
-6.0
-9.5
-3.7
2.8
4.1
27.4
67.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
-9.8
21.2
0.2
22.2
54.5
0.0
-2.0
5.3
0.0
-11.8
1.8
-13.4
2.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.5
-16.4
2.3
1.4
0.2
0.0
2.9
4.4
6.9
0.0
1.1
1.7
2.9
0.0
2.8
4.0
6.7
-0.6
1.0
0.0
-5.8
-0.2
-2.1
2.5
0.0
12.8
1.0
4.0
-4.8
0.3
-0.6
1.0
0.0
1.5
0.2
4.0
0.0
1.2
4.0
1.3
0.4
1.4
0.2
4.1
0.7
1.8
3.8
-10.1
1.0
-1.6
1.4
0.0
3.0
Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)
54.7
53.7
45.3
42.0
35.2
34.0
33.6
32.5
32.9
33.3
32.5
Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
43.4
6.1
0.0
25.5
22.7
2.8
43.6
6.8
0.0
25.6
20.6
4.9
45.2
6.2
0.0
23.6
16.4
7.2
46.2
8.6
0.0
31.0
16.3
14.7
45.3
9.9
0.8
49.3
8.4
40.9
46.1
11.5
1.3
52.4
6.1
46.3
50.0
14.4
1.2
59.7
9.3
50.3
50.8
12.5
2.1
67.0
12.3
54.7
52.4
12.9
1.8
70.3
16.6
53.6
53.7
12.9
1.7
69.3
17.1
52.2
52.8
11.4
1.6
71.8
16.8
55.0
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
822.9
48.5
644.7
46.7
77.4
5.5
882.2
46.5
680.6
53.1
96.7
5.3
857.7
46.5
658.8
66.0
81.3
5.1
896.5
48.5
683.5
70.1
89.0
5.3
933.6
50.6
705.1
74.9
97.5
5.5
989.5
53.0
739.9
79.4
111.5
5.7
1045.8
55.6
772.3
84.6
127.3
6.0
1086.9
57.6
796.6
88.2
138.3
6.2
1130.1
59.6
821.8
91.9
150.4
6.4
1164.8
61.2
842.1
94.1
160.9
6.5
1200.3
62.8
862.5
96.5
171.9
6.6
0.4
-0.4
0.2
3.5
0.5
-0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
1.3
1.8
0.8
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.2
2.7
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.5
0.5
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
219.9
165.6
18.1
36.2
219.2
161.3
21.4
36.5
203.8
146.7
18.6
38.5
215.5
154.9
20.0
40.6
228.1
163.6
21.7
42.8
244.7
176.3
23.4
44.9
261.9
189.3
25.4
47.2
273.0
198.5
26.7
47.7
284.1
207.7
28.0
48.4
293.0
214.8
29.3
48.9
301.8
221.8
30.7
49.4
-0.8
-1.2
0.3
0.6
1.1
1.1
1.5
1.1
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.0
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.2
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
51798
704
25608
12628
817
11115
9260
55091
663
26965
12123
982
13082
12750
52551
656
25610
12323
940
11650
13710
52505
674
24232
12822
1002
12339
14360
48926
680
20944
12280
1068
12455
15000
48227
685
19321
12792
1133
12747
15480
47707
692
18751
12725
1190
12750
15990
47914
700
18649
13198
1212
12543
16120
48314
712
18715
13342
1213
12706
16250
48942
721
18843
13603
1199
12950
16260
49949
732
19109
13840
1179
13466
16250
0.1
-0.7
0.0
-0.2
1.4
0.5
4.0
0.0
-0.7
0.4
-2.0
0.0
1.3
0.7
0.9
0.0
-0.3
0.2
-1.1
0.4
1.1
0.2
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs
(B)
(in 000 M€10)
as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat
(E)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Reference scenario 2013
145
APPENDIX 2
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
(A) including the part of electricity and heat generated by renewables
(B) excluding payments for auctioned emission allowances (if applicable)
(C) including pipeline transport and other non-specified transport
(D) according to Eurostat's indicator “Share of Renewables in Gross Final Energy Consumption”, calculated as ratio of renewable energy in all sectors including the part of electricity and heat
generated by renewables over final energy demand increased by distribution losses and self consumption of electricity and steam plants
(E) for years 2000 to 2010, total gross electricity generation by source as reported in this table and total gross electricity generation reported in table (A), as part of the energy balance, slightly
differ becauses of differences in the respective statistical sources
(F) electricity generated over maximum potential generation based on net power capacity
(G) energy demand in transport reported in table (B) does not include pipeline transport and other non-specified transport compared to table (A) where this category is included
Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from Eurostat and from the publications "EU Energy in Figures" of the
Directorate General for Energy and "EU Transport in Figures" of the Directorate General for Mobility and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past
according to their individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which may differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly
relevant for air transport and road freight transport. For road freight, transport activity is defined according to the nationality principle because of the lack of sufficiently long time series defined
according to the territoriality principle. These differences should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy
efficiency in freight transport, which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations
GIC: Gross Inland Consumption
CHP: combined heat and power
Units
toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
ktoe: 1000 toe
MW: Megawatt or 106 watt
MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hours
GWh: gigawatt-hour or 109 watt-hours
t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes
Mt: Million metric tonnes
km: kilometre
pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)
tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre)
Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre
Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre
146
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 3: NON-CO2 GHG EMISSIONS
EU Reference scenario 2013
147
APPENDIX 3
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
EU-28
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
430.24
389.56
83.49
481.19
400.48
340.26
90.20
463.90
352.13
340.70
83.10
466.33
343.34
327.97
86.20
464.80
336.03
322.61
88.25
460.77
325.58
320.02
82.61
459.75
325.21
318.27
81.21
459.72
327.46
318.40
79.38
460.99
328.69
319.48
83.65
462.91
329.81
320.26
87.88
464.88
Energy
114.68
101.41
95.84
88.67
82.90
73.40
69.18
67.88
66.08
63.87
64.43
21.52
20.73
9.43
9.59
9.75
9.87
10.00
10.11
10.16
109.37
99.96
54.83
52.24
48.35
44.99
46.75
48.88
50.98
53.09
38.87
37.64
38.82
39.78
40.73
41.53
41.88
42.18
42.35
42.48
56.09
68.01
60.57
62.46
63.45
59.25
57.01
54.41
57.89
61.38
25.47
13.19
57.35
845.95
903.29
25.30
13.19
17.83
813.11
830.94
25.62
13.19
16.91
759.02
775.93
26.94
13.19
5.53
751.98
757.51
27.91
13.19
5.55
741.34
746.89
26.36
13.19
5.55
722.67
728.22
27.08
13.19
5.52
719.16
724.68
27.72
13.19
5.48
719.76
725.24
28.32
13.19
5.39
726.43
731.82
28.90
13.19
5.30
732.66
737.96
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
EU-27
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
427.17
386.08
83.16
477.84
397.39
336.99
89.77
460.78
349.44
337.60
82.79
463.27
340.81
325.57
85.90
461.76
333.39
320.21
87.94
457.70
322.95
317.59
82.31
456.63
322.83
315.78
80.90
456.54
325.06
315.88
79.07
457.79
326.25
316.96
83.33
459.70
327.37
317.74
87.54
461.70
Energy
113.41
100.16
94.75
87.78
82.02
72.56
68.36
67.06
65.25
63.05
63.66
20.74
19.96
9.35
9.51
9.67
9.79
9.92
10.03
10.09
108.42
98.99
54.22
51.59
47.63
44.24
46.25
48.35
50.43
52.53
38.41
37.17
38.33
39.27
40.21
41.00
41.34
41.63
41.80
41.92
55.80
67.61
60.29
62.19
63.18
58.99
56.74
54.14
57.61
61.08
25.32
13.55
56.59
839.83
896.42
25.16
13.55
17.05
807.10
824.16
25.48
13.55
16.15
753.69
769.84
26.79
13.55
5.46
746.81
752.28
27.76
13.55
5.48
736.07
741.55
26.21
13.55
5.48
717.37
722.85
26.93
13.55
5.45
714.05
719.51
27.56
13.55
5.41
714.60
720.01
28.17
13.55
5.33
721.21
726.53
28.75
13.55
5.23
727.43
732.66
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Austria
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
6.09
5.43
1.85
7.24
5.34
5.33
1.75
7.15
5.25
5.62
1.70
7.54
4.96
5.51
1.75
7.47
4.87
5.55
1.75
7.57
4.97
5.59
1.34
7.68
4.85
5.48
1.27
7.51
4.83
5.44
1.21
7.50
4.87
5.43
1.25
7.53
4.92
5.39
1.31
7.52
Energy
1.64
1.80
1.75
1.55
1.38
1.27
1.19
1.11
1.08
1.09
0.73
0.25
0.25
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.30
1.76
1.02
0.87
0.72
0.72
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.50
0.52
0.53
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.58
0.58
0.59
0.59
0.93
1.19
1.09
1.12
1.11
1.00
0.92
0.85
0.88
0.92
0.60
-0.02
0.27
13.11
13.38
0.51
-0.02
0.07
12.35
12.42
0.56
-0.02
0.07
12.50
12.57
0.57
-0.02
0.07
12.14
12.21
0.58
-0.02
0.07
12.10
12.17
0.27
-0.02
0.07
11.82
11.89
0.28
-0.02
0.07
11.54
11.61
0.29
-0.02
0.07
11.40
11.47
0.29
-0.02
0.07
11.48
11.55
0.30
-0.02
0.07
11.54
11.62
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
148
2020
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Belgium
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
APPENDIX 3
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
7.05
9.66
1.90
10.81
6.51
8.33
2.04
10.54
6.63
6.68
1.82
10.83
6.20
6.70
1.87
10.77
6.19
6.70
1.91
10.73
6.14
6.69
1.75
10.65
6.04
6.57
1.72
10.34
6.06
6.57
1.68
10.28
6.06
6.56
1.81
10.19
6.09
6.58
1.93
10.15
Energy
1.12
1.24
1.19
1.10
1.07
1.03
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.06
3.62
2.28
0.46
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.48
0.48
0.49
1.34
0.93
0.95
0.65
0.68
0.69
0.72
0.76
0.80
0.85
0.63
0.65
0.67
0.71
0.74
0.77
0.80
0.83
0.87
0.90
1.40
1.61
1.34
1.38
1.41
1.31
1.26
1.21
1.31
1.42
0.45
-0.76
3.40
15.21
18.61
0.39
-0.76
2.07
14.82
16.89
0.44
-0.76
0.25
14.87
15.12
0.46
-0.76
0.26
14.52
14.78
0.48
-0.76
0.26
14.55
14.81
0.41
-0.76
0.26
14.32
14.58
0.43
-0.76
0.26
14.07
14.32
0.45
-0.76
0.26
14.05
14.31
0.47
-0.76
0.26
14.17
14.43
0.49
-0.76
0.26
14.34
14.60
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Bulgaria
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
7.76
5.01
0.52
5.53
6.63
4.96
0.62
5.68
5.05
4.98
0.61
5.60
4.44
5.01
0.63
5.87
4.30
5.08
0.59
5.96
4.15
5.13
0.51
6.07
4.16
5.21
0.47
6.17
3.83
5.14
0.44
6.03
3.91
5.14
0.46
6.11
3.94
5.04
0.48
6.00
Energy
1.26
1.28
1.31
1.29
1.34
1.18
1.17
0.89
0.89
0.92
0.73
0.29
0.32
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
3.55
3.10
1.58
0.97
0.78
0.75
0.78
0.80
0.82
0.84
1.10
0.65
0.64
0.62
0.61
0.59
0.58
0.57
0.56
0.55
0.38
0.55
0.53
0.54
0.50
0.41
0.37
0.33
0.35
0.36
0.24
0.50
0.71
12.59
13.30
0.18
0.50
0.27
11.94
12.21
0.17
0.50
0.29
10.35
10.65
0.17
0.50
0.09
9.98
10.08
0.17
0.50
0.09
9.88
9.97
0.17
0.50
0.09
9.69
9.79
0.18
0.50
0.09
9.76
9.85
0.18
0.50
0.09
9.32
9.41
0.18
0.50
0.08
9.43
9.52
0.18
0.50
0.08
9.38
9.46
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Croatia
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
3.06
3.49
0.33
3.35
3.09
3.27
0.43
3.12
2.69
3.09
0.31
3.05
2.53
2.40
0.31
3.04
2.64
2.40
0.31
3.07
2.63
2.44
0.30
3.12
2.37
2.49
0.31
3.18
2.40
2.52
0.31
3.20
2.44
2.53
0.33
3.21
2.44
2.52
0.34
3.19
Energy
1.27
1.25
1.10
0.89
0.89
0.84
0.82
0.82
0.83
0.82
0.77
0.78
0.77
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.95
0.98
0.61
0.65
0.73
0.75
0.50
0.52
0.55
0.56
0.46
0.47
0.49
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.55
0.56
0.29
0.40
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.26
0.28
0.29
0.15
-0.36
0.76
6.12
6.88
0.14
-0.36
0.77
6.01
6.78
0.15
-0.36
0.76
5.33
6.09
0.15
-0.36
0.06
5.17
5.23
0.15
-0.36
0.07
5.28
5.34
0.15
-0.36
0.07
5.30
5.37
0.16
-0.36
0.07
5.11
5.17
0.16
-0.36
0.07
5.16
5.23
0.16
-0.36
0.07
5.22
5.29
0.16
-0.36
0.06
5.23
5.29
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
EU Reference scenario 2013
149
APPENDIX 3
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Cyprus
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
0.83
0.47
0.14
0.62
0.81
0.47
0.19
0.61
0.50
0.45
0.16
0.59
0.57
0.44
0.16
0.60
0.68
0.44
0.17
0.61
0.80
0.45
0.16
0.63
0.85
0.46
0.16
0.64
0.91
0.46
0.15
0.65
0.96
0.47
0.16
0.65
0.97
0.47
0.17
0.66
Energy
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.10
0.20
0.32
0.35
0.40
0.43
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.36
0.38
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.12
0.17
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.03
0.10
0.00
1.44
1.44
0.03
0.10
0.00
1.46
1.46
0.03
0.10
0.00
1.11
1.11
0.03
0.10
0.00
1.17
1.17
0.03
0.10
0.00
1.29
1.29
0.04
0.10
0.00
1.41
1.41
0.04
0.10
0.00
1.46
1.46
0.04
0.10
0.00
1.52
1.52
0.04
0.10
0.00
1.59
1.59
0.04
0.10
0.00
1.62
1.62
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Czech Republic
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
10.40
8.18
0.75
8.72
9.86
7.20
0.96
8.19
7.94
6.78
0.89
7.94
7.64
6.51
0.93
7.98
7.69
6.46
0.94
7.91
7.62
6.30
0.87
7.83
7.26
6.15
0.84
7.71
7.87
6.14
0.79
7.76
8.02
6.19
0.84
7.82
8.11
6.29
0.88
7.92
Energy
6.18
5.64
5.30
5.15
5.23
5.08
4.64
5.15
5.25
5.31
1.07
0.47
0.53
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.21
0.22
2.51
2.66
0.83
0.71
0.68
0.68
0.72
0.75
0.78
0.82
0.69
0.71
0.73
0.75
0.76
0.77
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.63
0.83
0.73
0.76
0.75
0.66
0.61
0.55
0.58
0.61
0.23
-0.71
1.02
18.30
19.32
0.23
-0.71
0.41
17.61
18.02
0.25
-0.71
0.46
15.14
15.60
0.27
-0.71
0.11
14.98
15.09
0.29
-0.71
0.10
14.98
15.09
0.30
-0.71
0.11
14.68
14.79
0.31
-0.71
0.11
14.14
14.25
0.32
-0.71
0.11
14.69
14.80
0.32
-0.71
0.11
14.94
15.05
0.33
-0.71
0.11
15.17
15.28
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Denmark
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
5.64
6.28
1.01
9.84
5.45
6.17
1.05
9.87
5.21
5.86
1.18
9.38
5.14
5.74
1.24
9.31
5.19
5.60
1.29
9.27
5.22
5.46
1.20
9.22
5.16
5.31
1.23
8.99
5.15
5.19
1.27
8.81
5.12
5.11
1.37
8.69
5.12
5.03
1.50
8.55
Energy
1.12
1.05
0.96
0.83
0.72
0.63
0.62
0.59
0.56
0.54
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.39
0.19
0.19
0.17
0.19
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.72
0.68
0.70
0.73
0.77
0.81
0.85
0.89
0.94
1.00
0.84
0.94
0.93
0.97
1.02
1.01
1.03
1.04
1.14
1.24
0.21
-0.25
0.00
12.93
12.93
0.17
-0.25
0.00
12.67
12.67
0.31
-0.25
0.00
12.25
12.25
0.33
-0.25
0.00
12.12
12.12
0.34
-0.25
0.00
12.08
12.08
0.26
-0.25
0.00
11.89
11.89
0.27
-0.25
0.00
11.71
11.71
0.29
-0.25
0.00
11.60
11.60
0.30
-0.25
0.00
11.60
11.60
0.32
-0.25
0.00
11.65
11.65
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
150
2020
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Estonia
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
APPENDIX 3
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
1.04
0.97
0.20
1.39
1.04
1.04
0.16
1.42
0.94
1.02
0.14
1.35
0.94
1.02
0.15
1.44
1.00
1.06
0.15
1.52
0.96
1.04
0.14
1.52
0.99
1.03
0.14
1.52
1.01
1.02
0.14
1.52
1.01
1.02
0.15
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.15
1.47
Energy
0.39
0.43
0.40
0.36
0.36
0.34
0.35
0.35
0.34
0.34
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.25
0.27
0.24
0.19
0.21
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.18
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.10
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.12
-0.23
0.00
2.21
2.21
0.06
-0.23
0.00
2.24
2.24
0.05
-0.23
0.00
2.10
2.10
0.05
-0.23
0.00
2.11
2.11
0.05
-0.23
0.00
2.21
2.21
0.06
-0.23
0.00
2.15
2.15
0.06
-0.23
0.00
2.16
2.16
0.06
-0.23
0.00
2.17
2.17
0.07
-0.23
0.00
2.17
2.17
0.07
-0.23
0.00
2.15
2.15
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Finland
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
4.53
6.67
0.82
5.94
4.67
5.33
0.92
5.72
3.83
5.18
0.90
5.53
3.95
5.03
0.92
5.56
3.98
4.98
0.92
5.61
4.00
4.89
0.87
5.61
3.96
4.83
0.85
5.50
3.99
4.65
0.83
5.44
4.02
4.55
0.88
5.40
4.09
4.40
0.93
5.40
Energy
1.57
1.93
1.90
1.80
1.70
1.61
1.58
1.46
1.41
1.29
1.70
0.22
0.21
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
1.32
1.45
0.69
0.77
0.77
0.75
0.78
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.97
0.97
0.97
1.00
1.03
1.07
1.08
1.09
1.10
1.12
0.67
0.78
0.70
0.72
0.72
0.66
0.63
0.61
0.66
0.70
0.17
-0.33
1.64
10.37
12.01
0.17
-0.33
0.17
10.75
10.92
0.24
-0.33
0.16
9.75
9.91
0.24
-0.33
0.08
9.82
9.90
0.25
-0.33
0.09
9.79
9.88
0.25
-0.33
0.08
9.67
9.75
0.25
-0.33
0.08
9.55
9.63
0.25
-0.33
0.08
9.38
9.47
0.25
-0.33
0.08
9.37
9.45
0.26
-0.33
0.08
9.35
9.43
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
France
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
62.65
67.48
14.28
90.84
62.55
62.06
16.15
89.75
53.55
62.42
13.66
88.14
52.12
59.70
14.45
85.80
51.51
57.60
14.88
83.78
51.18
57.55
14.50
83.48
51.00
57.17
14.37
82.90
50.84
57.17
14.21
82.53
50.75
57.78
14.90
82.87
50.87
58.57
15.56
83.60
Energy
8.02
7.34
6.71
5.87
5.19
4.67
4.47
4.47
4.41
4.38
7.62
2.35
2.45
1.41
1.48
1.54
1.59
1.63
1.68
1.71
9.63
10.03
3.40
3.34
3.13
3.41
3.55
3.70
3.87
4.04
4.11
4.14
4.29
4.44
4.60
4.74
4.79
4.85
4.91
4.96
7.98
9.65
8.36
8.59
8.76
8.19
7.88
7.58
8.12
8.66
5.43
10.78
6.50
137.90
144.40
6.71
10.78
1.72
139.04
140.76
5.51
10.78
1.80
127.83
129.63
6.05
10.78
0.74
125.53
126.28
6.27
10.78
0.75
123.25
124.00
6.43
10.78
0.76
122.48
123.23
6.56
10.78
0.76
121.77
122.54
6.67
10.78
0.76
121.46
122.22
6.78
10.78
0.75
122.67
123.42
6.87
10.78
0.74
124.26
125.00
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
EU Reference scenario 2013
151
APPENDIX 3
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Germany
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
55.59
61.30
13.16
72.85
51.72
55.33
14.39
71.36
42.51
55.60
13.67
71.93
40.28
51.84
13.50
71.50
38.23
49.91
13.19
69.47
36.17
48.55
10.28
68.64
35.63
47.94
9.63
67.96
35.20
47.53
9.07
67.54
34.74
46.99
9.37
66.87
34.34
46.41
9.65
66.19
Energy
19.66
15.71
12.82
11.02
9.44
7.71
7.27
6.94
6.71
6.49
9.60
4.71
4.98
2.00
2.00
1.98
1.96
1.95
1.94
1.95
10.99
11.16
4.25
3.40
3.06
2.24
2.31
2.34
2.36
2.38
4.64
4.56
4.62
4.64
4.65
4.64
4.58
4.52
4.44
4.38
7.65
9.34
8.38
8.15
7.72
6.65
5.94
5.31
5.51
5.70
5.45
-0.81
8.59
121.45
130.04
5.40
-0.81
3.99
117.44
121.43
5.61
-0.81
4.24
107.54
111.78
5.70
-0.81
1.26
104.36
105.61
5.80
-0.81
1.24
100.09
101.33
3.94
-0.81
1.22
93.78
95.00
3.97
-0.81
1.19
92.00
93.19
4.02
-0.81
1.17
90.64
91.80
4.07
-0.81
1.14
89.96
91.10
4.12
-0.81
1.13
89.28
90.40
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Greece
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
10.15
7.94
3.47
8.79
10.29
7.59
2.30
8.73
7.81
6.89
1.83
7.88
7.48
6.37
1.84
7.74
6.99
6.09
1.82
7.65
6.64
6.00
1.75
7.74
6.70
6.11
1.75
8.10
6.77
6.12
1.73
8.17
6.86
6.10
1.81
8.22
6.94
6.05
1.90
8.26
Energy
2.86
2.44
2.17
1.83
1.32
0.84
0.63
0.60
0.59
0.56
1.98
0.58
0.56
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
2.85
3.17
1.13
1.08
0.90
0.84
0.84
0.87
0.90
0.92
1.01
1.07
1.08
1.10
1.11
1.13
1.15
1.15
1.16
1.17
1.63
1.93
1.54
1.54
1.51
1.43
1.42
1.39
1.46
1.53
0.57
1.86
0.61
20.95
21.56
0.39
1.86
0.48
19.70
20.18
0.32
1.86
0.45
16.08
16.53
0.33
1.86
0.11
15.58
15.69
0.34
1.86
0.11
14.80
14.90
0.35
1.86
0.11
14.29
14.40
0.36
1.86
0.11
14.45
14.56
0.37
1.86
0.11
14.51
14.62
0.37
1.86
0.11
14.67
14.78
0.38
1.86
0.10
14.79
14.89
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Hungary
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
8.99
8.74
0.83
9.42
8.13
6.50
0.70
8.59
5.97
7.24
0.70
9.09
5.43
7.45
0.72
9.30
5.11
7.45
0.75
9.26
4.75
7.54
0.71
9.32
4.77
7.67
0.69
9.47
4.82
7.70
0.64
9.51
4.63
7.64
0.68
9.46
4.64
7.60
0.72
9.40
Energy
2.96
2.55
2.39
2.17
2.11
2.01
2.01
2.02
1.81
1.82
1.95
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
3.02
3.26
1.52
1.23
1.02
0.79
0.82
0.85
0.89
0.92
1.10
0.66
0.64
0.63
0.61
0.60
0.58
0.57
0.55
0.54
0.55
0.64
0.61
0.62
0.65
0.60
0.58
0.52
0.56
0.59
0.21
-0.64
1.93
16.64
18.57
0.19
-0.64
0.05
15.28
15.33
0.22
-0.64
0.05
13.85
13.90
0.23
-0.64
0.05
13.56
13.61
0.23
-0.64
0.05
13.25
13.30
0.23
-0.64
0.05
12.94
12.99
0.24
-0.64
0.05
13.08
13.14
0.24
-0.64
0.05
13.10
13.16
0.24
-0.64
0.05
12.90
12.95
0.23
-0.64
0.05
12.90
12.95
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
152
2020
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Ireland
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
APPENDIX 3
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
12.81
8.09
1.06
18.96
11.65
7.77
0.91
17.75
12.22
7.84
0.81
18.24
12.40
7.88
0.89
18.52
12.61
7.89
0.99
18.62
12.50
7.86
1.04
18.68
12.73
7.82
1.07
18.73
13.05
7.93
1.10
19.01
13.37
8.02
1.19
19.27
13.70
8.08
1.29
19.51
Energy
0.58
0.57
0.56
0.52
0.47
0.46
0.48
0.49
0.50
0.51
0.25
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.13
1.20
0.88
1.02
0.98
1.11
0.90
1.00
1.11
1.23
1.34
0.23
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.36
0.39
0.41
0.43
0.45
0.47
0.60
0.68
0.62
0.68
0.75
0.77
0.79
0.80
0.87
0.95
0.27
-0.15
0.00
21.96
21.96
0.23
-0.15
0.00
20.33
20.33
0.18
-0.15
0.00
20.87
20.87
0.20
-0.15
0.00
21.17
21.17
0.22
-0.15
0.00
21.48
21.48
0.24
-0.15
0.00
21.39
21.39
0.26
-0.15
0.00
21.63
21.63
0.27
-0.15
0.00
22.09
22.09
0.29
-0.15
0.00
22.58
22.58
0.30
-0.15
0.00
23.06
23.06
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Italy
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
41.25
37.75
11.34
35.68
33.54
26.97
12.34
31.59
33.00
27.96
10.57
33.43
32.00
27.31
10.86
33.26
30.08
27.15
11.09
33.25
29.27
27.03
10.55
33.32
28.44
26.10
10.26
32.17
28.63
26.02
9.92
32.20
28.53
26.10
10.46
32.25
28.82
26.18
11.04
32.47
Energy
10.10
8.92
9.23
8.85
7.98
7.51
6.59
6.30
5.88
5.66
8.41
1.04
1.06
0.55
0.56
0.57
0.59
0.62
0.65
0.67
19.41
13.33
11.15
10.43
9.12
8.48
8.78
9.14
9.52
9.92
4.20
4.13
4.57
4.68
4.78
4.88
4.87
4.85
4.83
4.79
9.63
10.87
9.32
9.51
9.69
9.08
8.72
8.32
8.79
9.30
1.94
0.96
7.93
82.41
90.34
2.02
0.96
0.71
72.15
72.86
1.80
0.96
0.72
70.80
71.52
1.92
0.96
0.21
69.96
70.16
1.98
0.96
0.21
68.12
68.32
2.04
0.96
0.21
66.64
66.85
2.10
0.96
0.21
64.59
64.80
2.15
0.96
0.22
64.35
64.57
2.21
0.96
0.23
64.87
65.09
2.26
0.96
0.23
65.81
66.04
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Latvia
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
1.82
1.61
0.13
2.18
1.77
1.69
0.13
2.25
1.44
1.55
0.15
2.14
1.34
1.65
0.15
2.22
1.42
1.77
0.14
2.43
1.41
1.81
0.12
2.48
1.40
1.88
0.10
2.54
1.42
1.97
0.09
2.65
1.38
2.06
0.09
2.72
1.36
2.15
0.09
2.79
Energy
0.49
0.52
0.51
0.47
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.45
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.53
0.57
0.20
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.25
0.15
0.17
0.17
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.12
0.12
0.14
0.14
0.13
0.10
0.09
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.05
-0.06
0.00
3.56
3.56
0.04
-0.06
0.00
3.60
3.60
0.04
-0.06
0.00
3.15
3.15
0.04
-0.06
0.00
3.14
3.14
0.04
-0.06
0.00
3.33
3.33
0.04
-0.06
0.00
3.34
3.34
0.04
-0.06
0.00
3.38
3.38
0.04
-0.06
0.00
3.47
3.47
0.04
-0.06
0.00
3.53
3.53
0.04
-0.06
0.00
3.60
3.60
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
EU Reference scenario 2013
153
APPENDIX 3
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Lithuania
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
3.38
5.28
0.28
4.42
3.41
3.43
0.34
4.35
2.77
3.44
0.33
4.20
2.80
3.20
0.33
4.38
2.65
3.32
0.31
4.56
2.52
3.42
0.28
4.63
2.54
3.48
0.26
4.69
2.55
3.45
0.24
4.63
2.55
3.44
0.26
4.61
2.55
3.56
0.27
4.71
Energy
0.77
0.74
0.79
0.75
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.61
0.61
0.62
2.43
0.59
0.63
0.27
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.77
0.89
0.28
0.30
0.22
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.40
0.42
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.45
0.45
0.47
0.48
0.49
0.26
0.32
0.31
0.31
0.29
0.25
0.23
0.21
0.23
0.24
0.07
-0.17
2.43
6.52
8.95
0.07
-0.17
0.58
6.61
7.19
0.07
-0.17
0.62
5.92
6.54
0.07
-0.17
0.26
6.07
6.33
0.07
-0.17
0.25
6.03
6.29
0.07
-0.17
0.25
5.97
6.23
0.07
-0.17
0.25
6.04
6.28
0.07
-0.17
0.25
5.99
6.24
0.07
-0.17
0.24
6.01
6.25
0.07
-0.17
0.23
6.15
6.38
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Luxembourg
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
0.46
0.48
0.12
0.63
0.49
0.50
0.15
0.72
0.43
0.45
0.13
0.61
0.41
0.45
0.14
0.60
0.37
0.44
0.14
0.54
0.36
0.44
0.15
0.53
0.35
0.43
0.15
0.52
0.35
0.43
0.16
0.52
0.35
0.43
0.17
0.51
0.34
0.43
0.18
0.50
Energy
0.16
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.11
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.17
0.01
0.08
0.00
1.06
1.06
0.01
0.08
0.00
1.13
1.13
0.02
0.08
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.02
0.08
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.02
0.08
0.00
0.95
0.95
0.02
0.08
0.00
0.94
0.94
0.02
0.08
0.00
0.94
0.94
0.02
0.08
0.00
0.94
0.94
0.02
0.08
0.00
0.95
0.95
0.02
0.08
0.00
0.96
0.96
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Malta
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
0.22
0.05
0.06
0.11
0.23
0.05
0.07
0.10
0.14
0.04
0.07
0.10
0.16
0.04
0.07
0.11
0.16
0.05
0.07
0.12
0.15
0.05
0.07
0.11
0.15
0.04
0.06
0.11
0.15
0.04
0.06
0.11
0.15
0.04
0.06
0.11
0.15
0.04
0.07
0.11
Energy
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.14
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.34
0.34
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.25
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.28
0.28
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.28
0.28
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.26
0.26
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.26
0.26
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.26
0.26
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.26
0.26
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.26
0.26
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
154
2020
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Netherlands
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
APPENDIX 3
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
17.36
15.63
2.01
18.55
17.82
9.56
2.13
18.65
13.32
9.65
2.21
18.61
13.20
9.39
2.27
18.40
12.84
9.18
2.27
17.96
12.49
9.04
2.11
17.49
12.60
8.90
2.03
17.41
12.77
8.86
1.94
17.55
12.78
8.84
2.05
17.51
12.75
8.82
2.16
17.43
Energy
2.25
2.29
2.40
2.14
1.94
1.79
1.75
1.65
1.60
1.54
6.87
0.88
0.95
0.95
0.94
0.96
0.97
0.99
1.01
1.01
6.22
6.30
1.72
1.78
1.86
1.95
2.03
2.10
2.17
2.26
1.00
0.94
0.99
1.02
1.04
1.07
1.09
1.11
1.13
1.15
1.35
1.69
1.74
1.77
1.74
1.55
1.44
1.33
1.42
1.52
0.25
-1.49
6.34
28.66
35.00
0.26
-1.49
0.55
28.95
29.51
0.27
-1.49
0.60
24.58
25.18
0.29
-1.49
0.59
24.28
24.87
0.30
-1.49
0.56
23.73
24.30
0.32
-1.49
0.57
23.07
23.64
0.33
-1.49
0.56
22.97
23.53
0.33
-1.49
0.55
23.02
23.57
0.32
-1.49
0.54
23.13
23.67
0.32
-1.49
0.53
23.21
23.74
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Poland
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
37.22
29.36
4.71
34.96
36.19
26.55
5.87
35.48
32.57
26.19
6.59
35.23
33.93
26.20
7.12
35.96
33.96
25.38
7.31
35.22
32.84
25.07
6.90
35.31
32.88
24.55
6.67
35.11
33.47
24.56
6.41
35.46
33.78
24.67
6.69
35.79
33.61
24.45
6.88
35.95
Energy
18.58
16.64
16.69
17.12
16.67
14.86
14.16
14.03
13.80
13.01
4.93
1.17
1.39
0.66
0.68
0.70
0.71
0.72
0.72
0.70
7.49
8.70
4.64
5.43
5.77
6.03
6.53
6.99
7.41
7.78
2.87
2.89
2.98
3.06
3.10
3.13
3.06
2.99
2.92
2.83
3.95
5.35
5.83
6.38
6.53
6.06
5.79
5.51
5.76
5.94
1.06
-2.54
4.84
66.46
71.30
0.93
-2.54
1.07
67.55
68.61
1.14
-2.54
1.28
64.07
65.35
1.18
-2.54
0.53
66.71
67.25
1.22
-2.54
0.55
66.11
66.66
1.25
-2.54
0.56
64.24
64.80
1.28
-2.54
0.57
63.53
64.10
1.29
-2.54
0.57
63.88
64.45
1.28
-2.54
0.56
64.58
65.14
1.27
-2.54
0.53
64.41
64.94
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Portugal
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
11.98
5.21
1.12
7.33
12.01
4.68
1.27
7.06
9.77
4.69
1.01
7.14
9.80
4.46
1.03
7.17
9.61
4.48
1.08
7.33
9.35
4.51
1.02
7.44
9.76
4.72
0.98
8.05
9.87
4.73
0.92
8.15
9.98
4.76
0.98
8.29
9.87
4.71
1.03
8.11
Energy
1.45
1.30
1.16
1.15
1.03
0.89
0.84
0.81
0.78
0.74
0.59
0.33
0.32
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
4.40
4.61
2.44
2.40
2.11
1.83
1.77
1.76
1.76
1.79
2.57
2.55
2.56
2.64
2.71
2.80
2.90
2.97
3.01
3.04
0.97
1.18
0.92
0.93
0.98
0.91
0.86
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.27
0.71
0.56
17.75
18.31
0.22
0.71
0.30
17.67
17.97
0.23
0.71
0.28
15.19
15.47
0.23
0.71
0.02
15.26
15.29
0.23
0.71
0.02
15.15
15.17
0.24
0.71
0.02
14.86
14.88
0.25
0.71
0.02
15.44
15.46
0.25
0.71
0.02
15.49
15.52
0.26
0.71
0.02
15.70
15.72
0.26
0.71
0.02
15.59
15.61
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
EU Reference scenario 2013
155
APPENDIX 3
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Romania
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
26.15
13.73
0.65
18.69
22.33
11.75
1.13
17.00
22.00
13.42
0.96
18.98
21.89
12.29
1.04
18.84
21.69
12.31
1.05
18.77
21.19
12.37
0.93
18.79
21.16
12.45
0.87
18.85
21.16
12.44
0.79
18.93
21.12
12.39
0.85
18.88
20.94
12.41
0.90
18.97
Energy
6.08
5.51
5.53
5.67
5.67
5.50
5.50
5.42
5.42
5.21
3.08
1.29
1.44
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.29
0.29
0.29
3.79
2.24
1.47
1.39
1.30
1.03
1.07
1.09
1.10
1.10
1.43
1.21
1.20
1.20
1.19
1.17
1.14
1.11
1.08
1.05
0.43
0.91
0.70
0.76
0.76
0.64
0.57
0.49
0.54
0.59
0.43
6.61
3.04
37.49
40.53
0.42
6.61
1.26
33.95
35.20
0.43
6.61
1.40
34.97
36.38
0.44
6.61
0.26
34.96
35.22
0.44
6.61
0.26
34.79
35.05
0.44
6.61
0.26
34.23
34.49
0.44
6.61
0.25
34.22
34.48
0.45
6.61
0.25
34.15
34.39
0.44
6.61
0.24
34.13
34.37
0.44
6.61
0.24
34.02
34.25
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Slovakia
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
4.52
3.81
0.40
3.44
4.42
3.21
0.52
3.01
3.09
3.47
0.48
3.36
3.12
2.81
0.53
3.42
3.13
2.83
0.56
3.42
3.10
2.84
0.53
3.41
3.12
2.82
0.49
3.39
3.13
2.83
0.45
3.39
3.16
2.80
0.46
3.38
3.17
2.80
0.47
3.38
Energy
1.16
1.10
1.10
1.08
1.08
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.00
1.00
1.36
0.98
0.97
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.22
2.22
2.26
0.85
0.90
0.87
0.87
0.90
0.93
0.96
0.99
0.77
0.88
0.90
0.93
0.97
1.00
1.02
1.02
1.03
1.03
0.24
0.40
0.35
0.39
0.40
0.36
0.32
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.17
-0.61
1.34
7.40
8.74
0.12
-0.61
0.97
7.18
8.15
0.13
-0.61
0.95
6.09
7.04
0.13
-0.61
0.21
6.25
6.46
0.14
-0.61
0.21
6.30
6.51
0.14
-0.61
0.22
6.24
6.46
0.15
-0.61
0.22
6.22
6.43
0.15
-0.61
0.21
6.20
6.41
0.15
-0.61
0.20
6.22
6.42
0.15
-0.61
0.19
6.25
6.44
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Slovenia
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
2.17
1.21
0.21
1.94
1.89
1.18
0.20
1.88
1.86
1.02
0.20
1.73
1.75
0.99
0.21
1.75
1.73
0.99
0.22
1.76
1.67
0.99
0.19
1.77
1.65
0.98
0.17
1.76
1.66
0.98
0.15
1.76
1.68
0.98
0.15
1.76
1.67
0.97
0.15
1.76
Energy
0.45
0.50
0.47
0.41
0.42
0.39
0.36
0.36
0.37
0.36
0.06
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.68
0.43
0.40
0.31
0.26
0.22
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.21
0.21
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.12
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.12
0.10
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.03
0.05
3.53
3.58
0.05
0.03
0.02
3.26
3.28
0.06
0.03
0.02
3.06
3.08
0.06
0.03
0.02
2.93
2.96
0.07
0.03
0.03
2.91
2.94
0.07
0.03
0.03
2.82
2.85
0.07
0.03
0.03
2.77
2.80
0.07
0.03
0.03
2.76
2.79
0.07
0.03
0.03
2.78
2.81
0.07
0.03
0.03
2.77
2.80
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
156
2020
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Spain
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
APPENDIX 3
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
34.33
28.45
8.79
41.63
33.56
26.38
9.83
39.94
29.98
25.78
8.63
39.97
29.66
26.18
9.08
40.59
29.29
26.43
9.86
40.78
28.78
26.01
10.16
40.36
30.25
26.43
10.38
42.04
30.98
26.77
10.34
42.58
31.66
27.17
10.84
43.37
32.35
27.70
11.39
44.38
Energy
4.67
3.84
3.59
3.41
3.23
3.17
3.00
3.13
3.08
2.99
2.14
1.06
1.09
0.68
0.71
0.73
0.74
0.75
0.76
0.77
8.38
9.21
5.10
5.00
4.70
4.13
4.41
4.72
4.98
5.24
4.14
3.91
4.01
4.15
4.30
4.42
4.50
4.59
4.64
4.68
6.70
8.09
6.70
7.02
7.59
7.68
7.73
7.56
7.95
8.38
2.07
1.83
1.61
69.96
71.57
1.90
1.83
0.64
69.14
69.78
2.10
1.83
0.66
63.73
64.39
2.23
1.83
0.24
64.68
64.92
2.43
1.83
0.25
65.32
65.57
2.64
1.83
0.25
64.69
64.95
2.80
1.83
0.26
66.80
67.05
2.93
1.83
0.26
67.83
68.09
3.05
1.83
0.26
69.41
69.67
3.17
1.83
0.26
71.18
71.44
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
Sweden
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
5.89
7.03
2.22
7.62
4.87
6.88
2.14
7.24
4.64
7.10
2.30
7.34
4.62
6.89
2.43
7.31
4.76
6.95
2.56
7.39
4.85
6.90
2.61
7.41
4.95
6.90
2.73
7.42
5.05
6.81
2.87
7.41
5.15
6.75
3.13
7.43
5.26
6.74
3.38
7.45
Energy
1.81
1.99
2.06
2.06
2.06
2.00
2.00
1.94
1.89
1.87
0.82
0.43
0.44
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.17
0.18
1.47
0.58
0.37
0.39
0.42
0.44
0.47
0.50
0.53
0.56
1.22
1.27
1.31
1.35
1.43
1.49
1.54
1.60
1.64
1.69
1.64
1.87
1.94
2.06
2.18
2.23
2.34
2.47
2.71
2.96
0.34
0.21
0.69
14.44
15.13
0.30
0.21
0.35
13.55
13.90
0.38
0.21
0.35
13.69
14.04
0.39
0.21
0.08
13.86
13.94
0.40
0.21
0.08
14.19
14.27
0.41
0.21
0.08
14.28
14.36
0.42
0.21
0.08
14.50
14.58
0.43
0.21
0.08
14.66
14.74
0.45
0.21
0.08
14.95
15.03
0.46
0.21
0.08
15.30
15.38
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
United Kingdom
Non-CO2 GHG in Mt CO2eq
Non-CO2 GHG emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC
2005
2010
2015
CRF code
Total CH4
Total N2O
Total F-gases
Agriculture
46.92
40.25
11.13
49.69
40.21
36.10
11.51
46.13
37.02
36.28
11.11
46.40
34.58
34.49
11.60
45.88
33.34
34.14
11.93
46.20
29.88
34.07
11.59
46.49
29.49
34.34
11.54
46.92
29.53
34.94
11.47
47.70
29.65
35.54
12.26
48.49
29.77
35.87
13.05
49.05
Energy
17.99
14.65
13.58
10.95
10.16
7.06
6.15
5.63
5.21
4.71
3.66
1.61
1.69
0.48
0.49
0.50
0.51
0.52
0.52
0.52
13.74
11.22
8.70
8.68
7.38
6.58
6.85
7.13
7.44
7.77
3.25
3.37
3.52
3.62
3.76
3.82
3.89
3.95
3.99
4.03
6.76
8.04
6.95
7.24
7.41
6.89
6.68
6.43
7.04
7.67
4.58
-1.36
3.07
95.23
98.30
4.15
-1.36
1.40
86.41
87.81
4.93
-1.36
1.48
82.93
84.41
5.17
-1.36
0.28
80.38
80.66
5.37
-1.36
0.29
79.12
79.41
5.56
-1.36
0.29
75.25
75.54
5.74
-1.36
0.29
75.09
75.38
5.93
-1.36
0.28
75.65
75.93
6.12
-1.36
0.27
77.18
77.45
6.30
-1.36
0.26
78.42
78.68
4A-4F
1A-1B
Industry
2A-2E,2F.7,8
Waste
6A
Wastewater
6B
Air Conditioning & refrigeration 2F.1
Other sectors
3D, 2F.2,4,9
Calibration to UNFCCC data
in ETS sectors
in non-ETS sectors
Total non-CO2 GHG
Source: GAINS
EU Reference scenario 2013
157
APPENDIX 4
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
APPENDIX 4: LULUCF EMISSIONS
158
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
EU-28
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
EU-27
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Austria
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-340.0 -309.4 -294.7 -259.1 -236.3 -223.7 -208.6 -200.6 -197.0 -171.8 -153.0
Forest management
Biomass -384.7 -332.7 -300.0 -246.2 -195.1 -161.4 -129.9 -107.6 -90.9 -56.1 -29.3
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
0.0 -16.6 -27.6 -38.0 -50.1 -61.7 -71.7 -81.2 -90.9 -97.4 -103.3
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
-5.9
-8.8 -11.3 -13.6 -15.7 -17.6 -19.3 -20.7 -22.0 -23.1 -24.0
Deforestation
Biomass
40.4
30.3
22.2
19.4
13.7
10.0
7.3
5.4
4.0
2.8
2.1
Deforestation
Soil
10.2
18.3
22.0
19.3
10.9
7.0
5.0
3.6
2.8
2.1
1.6
Cropland management Soil
45.6
35.5
25.4
21.3
17.1
15.6
14.2
13.4
12.6
14.2
15.7
Cropland management
Soil
39.5
27.8
16.1
9.3
2.5
-0.4
-3.4
-5.1
-6.9
-6.0
-5.1
Cropland management
Soil
6.1
7.7
9.3
12.0
14.6
16.1
17.5
18.5
19.5
20.2
20.9
Grassland management Soil
8.2
5.9
3.5
1.4
-0.8
-2.8
-4.8
-6.7
-8.6 -10.3 -12.0
Grassland management
Soil
9.9
9.8
9.6
9.4
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.9
8.8
8.7
8.6
Grassland management
Soil
-1.7
-3.9
-6.1
-8.1 -10.1 -11.9 -13.7 -15.6 -17.4 -19.0 -20.7
Wetlands
6.2
6.1
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
Settlements
33.2
37.0
38.1
38.1
38.1
38.1
38.1
38.1
38.1
38.1
38.1
Other land
1.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Harvested Wood Products
0.0
-9.0 -18.1 -34.0 -50.0 -55.0 -60.0 -64.4 -68.8 -81.3 -93.9
LULUCF
-245.5 -233.3 -239.8 -226.5 -225.9 -221.8 -215.2 -214.3 -217.8 -205.2 -199.1
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
2005
-345.5 -315.1 -298.8 -260.9 -235.8 -222.9 -207.6 -198.9 -194.6 -168.7 -150.1
Forest management
Biomass -393.4 -340.1 -303.3 -246.4 -192.6 -158.3 -126.4 -103.4 -85.7 -50.1 -23.5
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
0.0 -17.0 -28.5 -39.4 -51.8 -63.8 -73.9 -83.6 -93.3 -100.0 -105.9
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
-6.1
-9.0 -11.6 -13.9 -16.0 -17.9 -19.6 -21.0 -22.4 -23.5 -24.3
Deforestation
Biomass
43.0
31.5
22.2
19.4
13.7
10.0
7.3
5.4
4.1
2.8
2.1
Deforestation
Soil
11.0
19.6
22.4
19.4
10.9
7.1
5.0
3.6
2.8
2.1
1.6
Cropland management Soil
45.8
35.7
25.7
21.5
17.4
15.9
14.4
13.6
12.9
14.4
16.0
Cropland management
Soil
39.7
28.0
16.3
9.5
2.7
-0.2
-3.1
-4.9
-6.6
-5.8
-4.9
Cropland management
Soil
6.1
7.7
9.3
12.0
14.6
16.1
17.6
18.5
19.5
20.2
20.9
Grassland management Soil
8.2
5.9
3.5
1.3
-0.9
-2.9
-4.9
-6.8
-8.7 -10.4 -12.2
Grassland management
Soil
9.9
9.8
9.6
9.4
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.9
8.8
8.7
8.6
Grassland management
Soil
-1.7
-3.9
-6.1
-8.1 -10.1 -12.0 -13.9 -15.7 -17.5 -19.2 -20.8
Wetlands
6.2
6.1
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
Settlements
33.5
37.5
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
Other land
1.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Harvested Wood Products
0.0
-9.4 -18.8 -34.8 -50.8 -55.8 -60.8 -65.2 -69.5 -82.0 -94.5
LULUCF
-250.3 -238.5 -243.6 -228.1 -225.3 -220.9 -214.1 -212.5 -215.1 -201.9 -196.0
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
2000
APPENDIX 4
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
EU Reference scenario 2013
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-5.9
-9.8
0.0
-0.1
3.1
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.0
-4.8
-2.8
-6.4
-0.2
-0.2
2.4
1.5
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.4
-0.1
-1.7
3.8
1.6
-0.4
-0.3
1.2
1.6
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.3
-0.1
4.9
2.7
2.3
-0.7
-0.3
0.7
0.7
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.3
-2.0
1.8
2.2
2.8
-1.0
-0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.3
-4.0
-0.6
2.3
3.6
-1.5
-0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.3
-4.9
-1.3
4.0
5.9
-1.8
-0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.3
-5.8
-0.5
4.9
7.3
-2.1
-0.5
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.3
-6.2
0.1
5.9
8.7
-2.4
-0.5
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.3
-6.6
0.7
7.9
11.0
-2.6
-0.6
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.3
-7.7
1.6
8.1
11.6
-2.9
-0.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.5
-0.1
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.3
-8.9
0.8
159
APPENDIX 4
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Belgium
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Bulgaria
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Croatia
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
160
Pool
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-3.6
-4.3
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-2.7
-3.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.9
0.8
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
-0.2
-0.9
-2.9
-3.3
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.9
0.8
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
-0.4
-1.4
-1.7
-1.8
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
-0.7
0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
-0.8
0.4
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.1
-0.9
0.6
0.4
0.7
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.1
-1.0
0.9
0.7
1.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.1
-1.0
1.1
0.7
1.1
-0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.1
-1.1
1.0
0.7
1.2
-0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.1
-1.1
0.9
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-10.8
-10.7
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0
1.4
1.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-9.4
-9.8
-9.1
-0.6
-0.3
0.1
0.0
1.2
0.7
0.5
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
-8.4
-9.7
-8.6
-1.0
-0.3
0.2
0.1
1.0
0.3
0.6
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.0
-8.2
-8.5
-6.7
-1.5
-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.7
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.5
0.0
-0.3
-7.4
-7.6
-5.2
-2.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.8
-0.1
0.9
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.2
0.5
0.0
-0.6
-6.9
-6.7
-3.9
-2.3
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.8
-0.1
0.9
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.2
0.5
0.0
-0.7
-6.2
-6.0
-2.4
-3.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0
0.7
-0.1
0.8
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.2
0.5
0.0
-0.8
-5.6
-5.5
-1.2
-3.5
-0.8
0.0
0.0
0.6
-0.1
0.7
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.2
0.5
0.0
-0.7
-5.2
-5.0
-0.1
-4.0
-0.9
0.0
0.0
0.5
-0.1
0.6
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.2
0.5
0.0
-0.7
-4.9
-4.9
0.5
-4.5
-1.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
-0.1
0.6
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.2
0.5
0.0
-0.8
-4.9
-4.9
1.1
-5.0
-1.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
-0.1
0.6
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.2
0.5
0.0
-1.0
-5.2
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-5.5
-8.7
0.0
-0.2
2.6
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
-4.9
-5.7
-7.5
-0.5
-0.2
1.3
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.3
-5.2
-4.1
-3.3
-0.9
-0.3
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.7
-3.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.4
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
0.5
2.5
-1.8
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.8
0.6
0.8
3.1
-2.0
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.8
0.9
1.0
3.5
-2.2
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.8
1.0
1.7
4.3
-2.4
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.8
1.8
2.5
5.2
-2.5
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.7
2.6
3.1
6.0
-2.5
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.7
3.3
2.9
5.8
-2.6
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.7
3.0
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Cyprus
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Czech Republic
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Denmark
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
EU Reference scenario 2013
APPENDIX 4
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-7.9
-8.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-7.7
-6.3
-6.6
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
-5.9
-1.8
-2.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.5
-1.3
-2.5
-2.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.3
-2.8
-2.3
-2.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-1.1
-3.5
-1.4
-1.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
-1.5
-3.0
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
-1.8
-3.2
-0.2
0.4
-0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
-2.1
-2.5
0.8
1.5
-0.6
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
-2.4
-1.8
1.9
2.8
-0.7
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
-2.9
-1.2
3.0
4.0
-0.8
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
-3.3
-0.6
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
2.9
2.9
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
3.7
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
2.8
2.8
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
3.5
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.1
2.8
2.7
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
2.8
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.1
3.0
2.9
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
3.0
-0.3
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.0
3.3
3.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.2
3.1
-0.2
0.4
-0.6
-0.1
0.0
0.0
2.8
2.6
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.3
2.5
-0.3
0.4
-0.7
-0.1
0.1
0.0
2.3
2.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.4
1.9
-0.4
0.5
-0.7
-0.1
0.0
0.0
1.6
1.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.4
1.2
-0.4
0.6
-0.8
-0.1
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.5
0.5
-0.4
0.7
-0.9
-0.2
0.0
0.0
1.5
1.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.6
0.9
-0.6
0.7
-1.1
-0.2
0.0
0.0
2.0
1.8
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.6
1.2
161
APPENDIX 4
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Estonia
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Finland
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
France
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
162
Pool
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-0.1
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.8
-0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-2.2
-2.3
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.8
-0.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-2.7
1.0
0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.6
1.9
2.3
-0.7
-0.3
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.1
1.3
2.2
3.4
-1.1
-0.4
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.2
1.3
2.3
3.9
-1.3
-0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.1
1.5
2.4
4.3
-1.4
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-0.7
-0.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
1.8
1.5
3.8
-1.8
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-0.7
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.2
1.0
0.0
2.7
-2.1
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-0.7
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
-0.5
-0.2
2.6
-2.2
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-0.7
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.1
-0.9
-0.4
2.4
-2.2
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.1
-0.7
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
-1.3
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-34.2
-37.3
0.0
-0.1
2.3
0.9
3.8
3.8
0.0
1.5
1.5
0.0
1.4
1.4
0.0
0.0
-26.2
-33.8
-37.6
-0.1
-0.2
2.3
1.7
3.4
3.4
0.0
1.5
1.4
0.1
1.5
1.9
0.0
-0.1
-25.6
-29.8
-33.5
-0.2
-0.2
1.7
2.5
3.0
3.0
0.1
1.5
1.4
0.1
2.0
1.8
0.0
-0.3
-21.8
-22.0
-25.1
-0.3
-0.3
1.3
2.4
2.6
2.4
0.2
1.5
1.4
0.2
2.0
1.8
0.0
-1.7
-15.8
-17.9
-19.6
-0.4
-0.3
1.2
1.3
2.1
1.8
0.4
1.6
1.3
0.2
2.0
1.8
0.0
-3.1
-13.5
-15.7
-16.6
-0.6
-0.4
1.0
1.0
1.9
1.5
0.4
1.6
1.3
0.3
2.0
1.8
0.0
-4.6
-13.1
-12.5
-12.8
-0.8
-0.4
0.8
0.7
1.6
1.2
0.4
1.6
1.3
0.3
2.0
1.8
0.0
-6.1
-11.7
-8.4
-8.1
-0.9
-0.4
0.5
0.5
1.5
1.1
0.4
1.7
1.3
0.4
2.0
1.8
0.0
-7.9
-9.5
-6.7
-6.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.4
0.4
1.4
1.0
0.4
1.7
1.2
0.4
2.0
1.8
0.0
-9.7
-9.6
-5.6
-4.5
-1.1
-0.5
0.3
0.2
1.3
0.8
0.5
1.7
1.2
0.5
2.0
1.8
0.0
-10.5
-9.4
-5.0
-3.5
-1.3
-0.6
0.2
0.2
1.2
0.7
0.5
1.7
1.2
0.5
2.0
1.8
0.0
-11.3
-9.6
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-19.5
-36.5
0.0
-1.1
15.2
3.0
8.5
8.0
0.5
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
-2.6
11.2
0.2
0.0
-2.5
-44.6
-54.1
-4.3
-1.7
10.3
5.1
5.4
4.8
0.6
-0.7
0.0
-0.7
-2.5
13.1
0.4
-3.1
-31.9
-44.5
-48.2
-7.0
-2.2
7.2
5.8
2.3
1.6
0.7
-0.9
0.0
-0.9
-3.5
14.3
0.1
-6.2
-38.4
-24.0
-21.3
-8.3
-2.8
4.9
3.4
1.8
0.5
1.2
-1.1
0.0
-1.1
-3.5
14.3
0.1
-12.2
-24.7
-7.4
2.0
-11.3
-3.2
3.3
1.8
1.3
-0.5
1.8
-1.3
0.0
-1.3
-3.5
14.3
0.1
-18.2
-14.8
-4.3
9.5
-13.5
-3.7
2.2
1.1
1.7
-0.5
2.2
-1.5
0.0
-1.5
-3.5
14.3
0.1
-15.8
-9.1
1.7
19.1
-15.4
-4.0
1.2
0.8
2.2
-0.4
2.6
-1.6
0.0
-1.6
-3.5
14.3
0.1
-13.5
-0.4
-5.2
15.4
-17.7
-4.4
0.9
0.5
1.9
-0.8
2.7
-1.8
0.0
-1.8
-3.5
14.3
0.1
-10.9
-5.1
-15.8
8.8
-21.1
-4.7
0.7
0.4
1.7
-1.2
2.8
-1.9
0.0
-1.9
-3.5
14.3
0.1
-8.2
-13.5
-17.8
9.5
-23.0
-5.0
0.5
0.3
2.2
-1.0
3.2
-2.1
0.0
-2.1
-3.5
14.3
0.1
-7.0
-13.8
-21.0
8.1
-24.5
-5.2
0.4
0.3
2.6
-0.9
3.5
-2.2
0.0
-2.2
-3.5
14.3
0.1
-5.7
-15.4
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Germany
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Greece
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Hungary
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
EU Reference scenario 2013
APPENDIX 4
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-27.9
-33.0
0.0
-0.3
4.9
0.6
10.7
9.7
1.0
8.7
9.1
-0.4
2.6
2.8
0.0
0.0
-3.0
-23.6
-25.8
-1.7
-0.5
3.3
1.1
8.2
7.0
1.2
8.4
9.0
-0.6
2.4
2.0
0.0
-2.2
-4.8
-10.3
-10.3
-2.8
-0.6
2.2
1.3
5.7
4.2
1.5
8.1
8.9
-0.9
2.2
2.6
0.0
-4.5
3.7
-15.6
-13.3
-3.9
-0.8
1.5
0.9
4.8
2.8
2.0
7.7
8.8
-1.1
2.2
2.6
0.0
-5.4
-3.7
-23.2
-18.7
-5.0
-0.9
1.0
0.5
3.9
1.4
2.5
7.4
8.6
-1.3
2.2
2.6
0.0
-6.3
-13.4
-24.8
-18.4
-6.3
-1.1
0.8
0.3
3.4
0.7
2.8
7.0
8.5
-1.5
2.2
2.6
0.0
-6.8
-16.4
-25.6
-17.4
-7.9
-1.2
0.6
0.3
3.0
-0.1
3.1
6.6
8.3
-1.7
2.2
2.6
0.0
-7.3
-18.6
-23.0
-13.1
-9.2
-1.4
0.5
0.2
2.8
-0.5
3.3
6.4
8.2
-1.8
2.2
2.6
0.0
-8.9
-18.0
-20.0
-8.6
-10.4
-1.5
0.3
0.2
2.6
-1.0
3.6
6.2
8.2
-2.0
2.2
2.6
0.0
-10.5
-17.1
-15.2
-2.3
-11.6
-1.7
0.3
0.1
2.6
-1.2
3.8
5.9
8.1
-2.2
2.2
2.6
0.0
-11.8
-13.8
-10.4
3.7
-12.6
-1.8
0.2
0.1
2.5
-1.5
4.0
5.6
8.1
-2.4
2.2
2.6
0.0
-13.2
-10.6
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-2.3
-1.9
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-2.5
-1.8
-0.1
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-2.7
-1.7
-0.3
-0.7
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.3
-2.8
-1.5
-0.5
-0.8
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.4
-2.7
-1.1
-0.7
-0.9
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-2.4
-2.9
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.5
-3.1
-1.0
-1.2
-0.9
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.6
-3.1
-0.8
-1.3
-0.9
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.7
-3.0
-0.7
-1.4
-1.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.6
-2.9
-0.5
-1.5
-1.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.5
-2.8
-0.3
-1.6
-1.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.3
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-1.8
-1.8
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-2.1
-1.7
-0.4
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
-1.0
-2.2
-1.5
-0.7
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.4
-1.0
-1.8
-0.8
-0.9
-0.3
0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.8
-1.4
0.0
-1.2
-0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.5
-1.4
0.4
-1.5
-0.4
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.7
-1.5
0.7
-1.8
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-1.5
1.0
-2.1
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-1.2
-1.6
1.1
-2.3
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-1.4
-1.3
1.6
-2.5
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.3
-1.3
-1.1
2.0
-2.7
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.5
-1.4
163
APPENDIX 4
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Ireland
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Italy
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Latvia
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
164
Pool
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-0.8
-0.9
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-1.1
-0.9
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.8
-1.0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-1.0
-0.9
0.0
-0.8
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.5
-1.4
0.1
1.3
-1.0
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-1.0
-1.0
0.2
1.7
-1.3
-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-1.1
-0.9
0.2
2.0
-1.5
-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-1.1
-1.0
-0.3
1.9
-1.8
-0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-1.0
-1.4
-0.5
2.0
-2.1
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-1.0
-1.6
-0.4
2.4
-2.4
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-1.2
-1.8
-0.4
2.7
-2.6
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-1.4
-2.1
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-36.3
-35.6
0.0
-1.0
0.3
0.1
2.2
1.3
0.9
-1.1
-0.8
-0.3
0.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
-32.7
-39.2
-35.1
-3.0
-1.4
0.2
0.1
1.9
0.8
1.1
-1.3
-0.8
-0.5
0.0
3.4
0.0
0.8
-34.4
-40.9
-34.3
-5.2
-1.8
0.1
0.1
1.7
0.4
1.3
-1.5
-0.7
-0.7
0.0
3.4
0.0
1.5
-35.7
-41.3
-32.2
-7.3
-1.9
0.1
0.1
1.7
0.1
1.6
-1.7
-0.7
-0.9
0.0
3.4
0.0
1.9
-36.0
-40.4
-29.2
-9.2
-2.1
0.1
0.0
1.7
-0.2
2.0
-1.8
-0.7
-1.1
0.0
3.4
0.0
2.2
-34.9
-40.1
-27.3
-10.7
-2.1
0.1
0.0
1.9
-0.2
2.2
-2.0
-0.7
-1.3
0.0
3.4
0.0
2.2
-34.6
-39.8
-25.7
-11.9
-2.2
0.0
0.0
2.1
-0.2
2.3
-2.2
-0.7
-1.4
0.0
3.4
0.0
2.2
-34.3
-39.4
-24.5
-12.7
-2.3
0.0
0.0
2.3
-0.3
2.6
-2.3
-0.7
-1.6
0.0
3.4
0.0
2.2
-33.8
-38.8
-23.3
-13.2
-2.3
0.0
0.0
2.6
-0.4
3.0
-2.4
-0.7
-1.8
0.0
3.4
0.0
2.2
-33.1
-37.4
-21.8
-13.4
-2.3
0.0
0.0
2.6
-0.4
3.0
-2.6
-0.7
-1.9
0.0
3.4
0.0
2.2
-31.8
-35.9
-20.3
-13.3
-2.3
0.0
0.0
2.7
-0.4
3.1
-2.7
-0.7
-2.0
0.0
3.4
0.0
2.2
-30.4
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-18.3
-18.8
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-17.7
-17.5
-18.1
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.4
-16.5
-16.8
-17.5
-0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.8
-15.6
-14.4
-14.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
-13.6
-13.0
-12.8
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
-12.6
-13.0
-12.7
-0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-13.0
-13.0
-12.5
-0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.4
-13.3
-12.7
-12.1
-0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.5
-13.1
-13.3
-12.5
-0.6
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.7
-13.8
-13.5
-12.7
-0.7
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.9
-14.1
-13.7
-12.8
-0.7
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
-1.1
-14.5
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Lithuania
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Luxembourg
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Malta
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
EU Reference scenario 2013
APPENDIX 4
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-8.3
-8.5
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.0
0.0
-7.2
-7.3
-7.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
-6.7
-6.0
-5.9
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
-5.5
-6.0
-5.6
-0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
-5.7
-7.1
-6.3
-0.6
-0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-7.0
-7.0
-5.9
-0.8
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-7.1
-6.6
-5.3
-1.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-6.9
-7.2
-5.6
-1.2
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-7.6
-7.2
-5.4
-1.4
-0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-7.6
-7.2
-5.1
-1.5
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-7.5
-7.4
-5.2
-1.7
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-7.8
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-0.5
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.5
-0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
165
APPENDIX 4
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Netherlands
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Poland
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Portugal
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
166
Pool
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-1.4
-2.6
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
2.9
2.9
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.0
2.2
-1.2
-2.2
-0.2
0.0
0.7
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
2.9
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.1
2.6
-1.1
-1.9
-0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
3.1
2.9
0.2
0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.3
2.6
-1.4
-1.6
-0.4
-0.1
0.4
0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
3.2
2.9
0.3
0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.3
2.4
-1.7
-1.3
-0.7
-0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
3.3
2.9
0.4
0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.3
2.0
-2.3
-1.3
-1.0
-0.3
0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
3.4
2.9
0.5
0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.2
1.6
-2.7
-1.2
-1.3
-0.4
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
3.4
2.9
0.6
0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.2
1.2
-3.1
-1.1
-1.6
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
3.5
2.9
0.6
0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.2
0.9
-3.4
-1.0
-2.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
3.6
2.9
0.7
0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.3
0.7
-3.7
-1.1
-2.2
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
3.6
2.9
0.7
0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.2
0.5
-3.9
-1.0
-2.5
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
3.7
2.9
0.8
0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.2
0.3
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-42.6
-42.6
0.0
-0.4
0.3
0.1
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.6
-0.1
2.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
-38.2
-34.9
-33.5
-1.3
-0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
-0.2
3.1
0.1
0.0
-0.9
-32.3
-29.3
-27.2
-1.9
-0.7
0.3
0.2
-0.6
-0.9
0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.3
3.1
0.1
0.0
-1.9
-28.3
-27.3
-24.4
-2.6
-0.8
0.2
0.3
-1.1
-1.4
0.3
0.0
0.5
-0.5
3.1
0.1
0.0
-3.5
-28.6
-26.9
-22.9
-3.3
-0.9
0.1
0.1
-1.6
-1.9
0.3
-0.2
0.4
-0.6
3.1
0.1
0.0
-5.1
-30.4
-26.2
-21.3
-4.0
-1.0
0.1
0.1
-1.7
-2.0
0.3
-0.3
0.4
-0.8
3.1
0.1
0.0
-5.5
-30.5
-24.3
-18.5
-4.7
-1.1
0.1
0.1
-1.8
-2.1
0.3
-0.5
0.4
-0.9
3.1
0.1
0.0
-6.0
-29.3
-22.8
-16.2
-5.4
-1.3
0.0
0.0
-1.6
-1.9
0.3
-0.7
0.4
-1.1
3.1
0.1
0.0
-6.5
-28.3
-21.5
-14.3
-5.9
-1.4
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-1.8
0.3
-0.8
0.4
-1.2
3.1
0.1
0.0
-7.0
-27.5
-16.2
-8.4
-6.4
-1.5
0.0
0.0
-1.3
-1.6
0.3
-1.0
0.4
-1.4
3.1
0.1
0.0
-9.5
-24.7
-11.0
-2.6
-6.8
-1.6
0.0
0.0
-1.1
-1.4
0.3
-1.2
0.4
-1.6
3.1
0.1
0.0
-12.0
-22.0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-4.9
-9.9
0.0
-0.3
3.7
1.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.1
-0.8
0.0
-3.0
-5.1
-8.2
-1.3
-0.5
2.0
2.8
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.6
-0.7
-0.2
-2.8
-4.7
-5.5
-1.7
-0.7
0.7
2.5
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.1
-0.7
-0.4
-3.0
-6.2
-10.6
-2.9
-0.9
4.3
3.9
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.1
-0.7
-0.4
-4.5
-8.2
-8.8
-3.6
-1.1
2.9
2.5
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.1
-0.7
-0.4
-6.6
-8.7
-6.1
-4.4
-1.4
1.8
1.3
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.1
-0.7
-0.4
-7.1
-8.7
-4.4
-5.0
-1.5
1.3
0.9
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.1
-0.7
-0.4
-7.1
-8.9
-3.4
-5.5
-1.6
0.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.1
-0.7
-0.4
-7.4
-8.7
-2.2
-6.0
-1.7
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.1
-0.7
-0.4
-7.2
-8.2
-1.4
-5.8
-1.7
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.1
-0.7
-0.4
-6.6
-7.5
-0.6
-5.6
-1.7
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.1
-0.7
-0.3
-5.9
EU Reference Scenario 2013
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Romania
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Slovakia
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Slovenia
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
EU Reference scenario 2013
APPENDIX 4
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-21.9
-24.4
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.4
1.8
1.3
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.1
0.0
-18.5
-19.8
-22.5
-0.2
-0.1
2.1
0.8
1.7
0.9
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.6
0.4
-0.8
-18.1
-20.5
-23.5
-0.3
-0.1
2.2
1.2
1.6
0.6
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.8
-1.5
-19.3
-13.9
-16.8
-0.4
-0.1
2.2
1.2
1.3
0.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.8
-2.6
-14.1
-6.7
-9.1
-0.5
-0.1
2.1
0.9
1.0
-0.2
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.8
-3.7
-8.3
-2.4
-4.5
-0.7
-0.1
2.1
0.8
0.9
-0.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.8
-4.1
-4.5
2.6
1.0
-0.8
-0.1
1.9
0.7
0.8
-0.5
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.8
-4.5
0.0
5.4
4.3
-1.0
-0.2
1.6
0.6
1.0
-0.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.8
-4.4
3.0
8.6
8.2
-1.1
-0.2
1.2
0.4
1.2
-0.5
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.8
-4.4
6.5
12.5
12.8
-1.3
-0.2
0.9
0.3
0.7
-0.6
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.8
-5.0
9.4
16.1
16.9
-1.4
-0.2
0.6
0.2
0.3
-0.7
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.8
-5.5
12.0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-8.3
-8.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
-7.5
-4.8
-5.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.3
-0.2
-4.4
-3.5
-3.7
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.4
-3.6
-4.3
-4.4
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.7
-4.6
-4.7
-4.7
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.9
-5.2
-4.6
-4.5
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.0
-5.3
-3.8
-3.6
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.1
-4.6
-3.3
-3.1
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.1
-4.2
-2.4
-2.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.0
-3.2
-1.3
-1.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.8
-3.0
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
-2.7
-2.7
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-10.4
-10.9
0.0
-0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
-9.7
-10.7
-10.8
-0.4
-0.1
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.1
-9.9
-10.3
-10.0
-0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.1
-9.4
-10.4
-9.8
-0.8
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.2
-9.5
-10.1
-9.2
-1.0
-0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.3
-9.3
-10.7
-8.9
-1.8
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.4
-9.9
-10.5
-8.7
-1.7
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.4
-9.6
-10.0
-8.0
-1.7
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.5
-9.2
-9.4
-7.5
-1.7
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.6
-8.8
-8.7
-6.8
-1.7
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.7
-8.1
-9.2
-7.1
-1.9
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.7
-8.6
167
APPENDIX 4
EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050
Spain
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Sweden
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
United Kingdom
LULUCF emissions Reference scenario
LULUCF CO2 emissions
in Mt CO2eq
UNFCCC Source
CRF
code
5A
Total Forest Land
Forest Land remaining Forest Land 5A.1
Land converted to Forest Land
5A.2
Forest Land converted to other land
use categories
Total Cropland
Cropland remaining Cropland
Land converted to Cropland
Total Grassland
Grassland remaining Grassland
Land converted to Grassland
Total Wetlands
Total Settlements
Total Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
Source: G4M, GLOBIOM
168
Pool
5B
5B.1
5B.2
5C
5C.1
5C.2
5D
5E
5F
5G
5
Pool
Forest management
Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Biomass
Afforestation/ reforestation Soil
Deforestation
Biomass
Deforestation
Soil
Cropland management Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Cropland management
Soil
Grassland management Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Grassland management
Soil
Wetlands
Settlements
Other land
Harvested Wood Products
LULUCF
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-19.3
-18.9
0.0
-0.6
0.1
0.0
1.5
1.1
0.5
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
-17.4
-19.7
-18.2
-0.8
-0.9
0.1
0.1
1.4
0.8
0.6
-1.3
0.0
-1.3
0.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-19.6
-21.8
-19.4
-1.5
-1.2
0.1
0.1
1.2
0.5
0.7
-2.4
0.0
-2.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
-1.0
-23.4
-20.4
-17.1
-2.1
-1.4
0.1
0.1
1.0
0.0
1.0
-3.4
0.0
-3.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
-1.2
-23.4
-18.8
-14.6
-2.7
-1.7
0.1
0.1
0.7
-0.6
1.3
-4.4
0.0
-4.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
-1.3
-23.1
-18.5
-13.4
-3.3
-2.0
0.1
0.1
0.8
-0.7
1.5
-5.3
0.0
-5.3
0.0
0.6
0.0
-1.4
-23.8
-17.9
-12.2
-3.8
-2.2
0.1
0.1
0.9
-0.8
1.7
-6.2
0.0
-6.2
0.0
0.6
0.0
-1.5
-24.2
-18.3
-11.7
-4.4
-2.3
0.1
0.1
0.8
-0.8
1.7
-7.1
0.0
-7.1
0.0
0.6
0.0
-1.5
-25.5
-18.1
-11.1
-4.7
-2.5
0.1
0.1
0.7
-0.9
1.7
-8.0
0.0
-8.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
-1.5
-26.2
-15.5
-8.1
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
0.1
0.7
-0.9
1.7
-8.8
0.0
-8.8
0.0
0.6
0.0
-2.4
-25.4
-12.7
-5.1
-5.1
-2.6
0.0
0.0
0.7
-0.9
1.7
-9.6
0.0
-9.6
0.0
0.6
0.0
-3.3
-24.4
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-43.1
-47.7
0.0
-0.6
4.2
1.1
1.9
1.8
0.2
-0.6
-0.5
-0.1
0.1
2.4
0.0
0.0
-39.3
-8.5
-12.0
-0.7
-0.9
3.1
2.0
1.2
1.1
0.2
-0.8
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
2.9
0.0
-2.2
-7.3
-31.3
-34.3
-1.2
-1.0
2.5
2.8
0.5
0.4
0.1
-1.0
-0.5
-0.5
0.1
2.9
0.0
-4.3
-33.1
-30.3
-32.0
-1.8
-1.1
1.5
3.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
-1.2
-0.5
-0.7
0.1
2.9
0.0
-4.0
-32.2
-33.2
-31.8
-2.4
-1.1
0.8
1.4
0.2
-0.1
0.3
-1.4
-0.5
-0.9
0.1
2.9
0.0
-3.8
-35.2
-31.7
-28.6
-2.9
-1.2
0.3
0.7
0.1
-0.3
0.3
-1.6
-0.5
-1.1
0.1
2.9
0.0
-5.2
-35.4
-37.3
-33.4
-3.3
-1.2
0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.4
0.3
-1.8
-0.5
-1.3
0.1
2.9
0.0
-6.6
-42.8
-35.5
-31.2
-3.5
-1.2
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.5
0.3
-1.9
-0.5
-1.4
0.1
2.9
0.0
-8.6
-43.3
-33.2
-28.7
-3.6
-1.2
0.1
0.2
-0.3
-0.5
0.2
-2.1
-0.5
-1.6
0.1
2.9
0.0
-10.6
-43.3
-30.1
-25.6
-3.6
-1.2
0.1
0.2
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
-2.2
-0.5
-1.7
0.1
2.9
0.0
-14.0
-43.7
-28.6
-24.1
-3.6
-1.2
0.1
0.2
-0.5
-0.6
0.1
-2.2
-0.5
-1.7
0.1
2.9
0.0
-17.4
-45.7
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-10.1
-11.3
0.0
-0.1
0.6
0.7
6.0
4.9
1.1
-3.7
-3.4
-0.3
0.5
6.5
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-9.1
-10.5
-0.2
-0.2
0.5
1.3
4.7
3.4
1.3
-3.8
-3.4
-0.4
0.5
6.3
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-7.7
-8.9
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
1.5
3.3
1.9
1.4
-3.9
-3.3
-0.5
0.3
6.2
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-7.3
-7.8
-0.6
-0.3
0.3
1.1
2.7
1.0
1.8
-4.0
-3.3
-0.7
0.3
6.2
0.0
-0.8
-2.9
-6.7
-6.6
-0.8
-0.4
0.3
0.8
2.1
0.1
2.1
-4.0
-3.2
-0.8
0.3
6.2
0.0
-1.5
-3.7
-5.3
-4.8
-1.0
-0.4
0.3
0.6
2.0
-0.3
2.3
-4.1
-3.2
-0.9
0.3
6.2
0.0
-2.4
-3.4
-4.7
-3.7
-1.3
-0.5
0.2
0.5
1.8
-0.7
2.5
-4.2
-3.1
-1.1
0.3
6.2
0.0
-3.3
-4.0
-4.0
-2.6
-1.5
-0.5
0.2
0.4
1.9
-0.9
2.8
-4.3
-3.1
-1.2
0.3
6.2
0.0
-3.5
-3.4
-3.9
-2.1
-1.7
-0.6
0.2
0.4
2.1
-1.0
3.1
-4.4
-3.1
-1.3
0.3
6.2
0.0
-3.8
-3.5
-4.0
-1.9
-1.9
-0.6
0.1
0.3
2.7
-0.7
3.4
-4.5
-3.1
-1.4
0.3
6.2
0.0
-4.5
-3.8
-4.0
-1.7
-2.1
-0.7
0.1
0.3
3.3
-0.4
3.7
-4.5
-3.0
-1.5
0.3
6.2
0.0
-5.3
-4.1
EU Reference Scenario 2013
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