15 November 2012 Update | Sector: Retail Pantaloon Retail BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 18,670 5,684 CMP: INR198 Neutral Restructuring continues; Fashion demerged, FVRL merged 5QFY12 Core Retail PAT down 91%; maintain Neutral Bloomberg PF IN Equity Shares (m) 217.1 52-Week Range (INR) 1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%) 239/125 4/16/7 M.Cap. (INR b) 43.0 M.Cap. (USD b) 0.8 Valuation summary (INR b) Y/E June 2010 2011 2012E* Sales 89.3 110.1 122.5 EBITDA 8.2 9.6 11.0 NP 1.7 1.9 1.1 EPS (INR) 8.2 8.7 4.8 EPS Gr. (%) 25.8 7.1 -45.2 BV/Sh. (INR) 136.1 140.1 139.5 P/E (x) 24.3 22.7 41.3 P/BV (x) 1.5 1.4 1.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 8.1 7.9 EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 RoE (%) 6.0 6.2 3.4 RoCE (%) 14.2 12.1 12.0 Prices as on 12 November 2012, *December year ending Shareholding pattern % As on Sep-12 Promoter 43.7 Dom. Inst 11.3 Foreign 22.1 Others 23.0 Jun-12 Sep-11 43.7 43.7 11.9 20.0 22.4 23.6 22.0 12.7 Stock performance (1 year) Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Pantaloon Retail's results for 5QFY12 (financial year extended till Dec) were in line with our modest expectations. Core retail PAT was down 91% YoY to INR29m. PF's 5QFY12 sales grew 5% YoY to INR 30.6b, in line with estimates. Same store sales (SSS) growth was 10.8% for Lifestyle division, -0.2% for Value and -3.5% for Home. September quarter was partially impacted by shift in festive season, as per management. Gross space addition during the quarter stood at 0.17msf; net addition was zero due to space optimization in unviable stores. Core Retail EBITDA increased 5% to INR 2.6b, margins remained flat YoY at 8.7%. Despite 40bp improvement in gross margins and 30bp savings in employee costs, EBITDA margins were flat due to 80bp increase in rent and overheads. 35% YoY jump in interest cost to INR1.8b (higher rates and higher debt) and 18% higher depreciation expenses resulted in 91% decline in Adj PAT to INR29m. Excluding other income, which went up 67% YoY, PBT from operations reported a loss of INR88m. PF has also restructured its core retail business. It has (a) Transferred Fashion business from PF and Future Ventures into a newly created entity, Future Fashion (to be listed) and transferred debt of INR12.26b to the new entity, (b) Merged its wholly owned sub Future Value Retail back into PF. This restructuring is preceded by sale of its Pantaloon format business to ABNL and divestment of PF's 41.6% stake in Future Capital. We believe the restructuring is aimed at creating a separate vertical for its retail business, and making it ready for FDI infusion post the government's clearance of 51% FDI in multi-brand retail. We maintain our estimates for FY12E (Dec-end) and await clarity from management on the trajectory and financial repercussions of the recently announced initiatives (specifically financials of Future Fashions). Given the lackluster core retail performance, we maintain Neutral. 5QFY12 PAT down 91%; SSS in Lifestyle improves; higher capital costs drag bottom-line Core retail: Sales grew 5% YoY to INR30.6b; EBITDA grew in line at 5% to INR2.6b as margins remained flat YoY at 8.7%. 35% increase in interest cost to INR1.8b (higher rates and higher debt) and 18% higher depreciation resulted in 91% decline in Adj PAT. Standalone: Standalone sales were up 15%, gross margins expanded 90bp; EBITDA margins were flat, driven by higher rental and overheads (up 170bp YoY). EBITDA is up 14% YoY; however, 24% increase in interest burden and 17% rise in depreciation led to INR19m loss at PBT level. Reported PAT of INR86m is beneficially impacted by INR131.8mn gain on sale of investments. Future Value Retail (difference between core retail and standalone): Value retailing reported flat sales (down 0.2%) and 0.8% increase in EBITDA as margins remained flat at 9.3%. 46% higher interest and 18% higher depreciation led to 80% decline in PBT to INR63m. Gautam Duggad ([email protected]); +9122 3982 5404 Sreekanth P V S ([email protected]); +9122 3029 5120 1 Pantaloon Retail Muted performance continues (INR m) 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 5QFY12 Core Retail Sales 25,814 Gross Profit 7,416 Gross Margin (%) 28.7 EBITDA 2,127 EBITDA Margin (%) 8.2 Interest 933 Adjusted PAT 428 PAT Margin (%) 1.7 Standalone Sales 9,915 Gross Profit 3,459 Gross Margin (%) 34.9 EBITDA 958 EBITDA Margin (%) 9.7 Interest 420 Adjusted PAT 176 PAT Margin (%) 1.8 Future Value Retail Sales 15,899 Gross Profit 3,957 Gross Margin (%) 24.9 EBITDA 1,169 EBITDA Margin (%) 7.4 Interest 513 Adjusted PAT 252 PAT Margin (%) 1.6 27,586 7,933 28.8 2,383 8.6 1078 472 1.7 28,119 8,055 28.6 2,479 8.8 1096 505 1.8 28,604 8,445 29.5 2,585 9.0 1177 492 1.7 29,106 8,496 29.2 2,523 8.7 1305 330 1.1 28,933 8,492 29.4 2,612 9.0 1582 135 0.5 30,264 8,755 28.9 2,776 9.2 1725 120 0.4 29,627 8,701 29.4 2,763 9.3 1804 39 0.1 30,600 9,067 29.6 2,647 8.7 1761 29 0.1 10,243 3,602 35.2 1,074 10.5 462 199 1.9 9,887 3,173 32.1 683 6.9 484 201 2.0 9,996 3,311 33.1 664 6.6 524 191 1.9 10,784 3,910 36.3 1,198 11.1 657 124 1.2 11,080 4,019 36.3 1,259 11.4 736 56 0.5 11,059 3,747 33.9 993 9.0 794 54 0.5 11,176 3,916 35.0 1,043 9.3 846 26 0.2 11,921 4,132 34.7 908 7.6 814 -46 -0.4 17,343 4,332 25.0 1,310 7.6 616 273 1.6 18,232 4,882 26.8 1,795 9.8 612 304 1.7 18,608 5,134 27.6 1,921 10.3 653 301 1.6 18,322 4,585 25.0 1,325 7.2 648 206 1.1 17,854 4,473 25.1 1,353 7.6 846 79 0.4 19,205 18,451 18,679 5,009 4,784 4,936 26.1 25.9 26.4 1,783 1,721 1,739 9.3 9.3 9.3 931 958 947 66 13 75 0.3 0.1 0.4 Source: Company, MOSL SSS growth hampered due to shift in festive season vis-à-vis previous year and poor consumer sentiment; Lifestyle up 10.8% SSS declined by 0.2% in Value retailing (up 0.4% in 4QFY12), first decline in last 15 quarters. Home Retail SSS declined 3.5% (down 0.9% in 4QFY12). However, Lifestyle reported a strong 10.8% SSS (4.7% in 4QFY12). Management attributed the poor SSS performance to shift in festive season. Value SSS declines 0.2%; lowest in 15 quarters Home retailing SSS growth declines 3.5% Source: Company, MOSL 15 November 2012 2 Pantaloon Retail Gross area addition of ~0.17msf; net addition remains flat; total area under operation =16.36msf PF has added 0.17msf of gross retail space during the quarter but it rationalized space in unviable stores resulting in flat net space addition. Total area under operation remained flat QoQ at 16.36msf. During the quarter, it opened 2 Pantaloon, 2 Big Bazaar, 1 Brand Factory and 2 Home Town Express stores. Key Retail Metrics 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 5QFY12 Retail Space (m sq ft) Big Bazaar Central Pantaloons Home Town E Zone Food Bazaar KB’s Fair Price Others Total Store Count (x) Big Bazaar Central Pantaloons Home Town E Zone Food Bazaar Net Store Addition (x) Big Bazaar Central Pantaloons Home Town E Zone Food Bazaar 7.0 2.2 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.7 13.4 7.4 2.4 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 14.2 7.6 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.8 14.8 7.6 2.6 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.9 15.2 7.6 2.8 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.1 15.7 7.9 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.2 16.3 8.0 2.9 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.2 16.33 8.1 3.2 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.1 16.36 7.9 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.2 16.35 136 27 48 11 42 55 143 29 53 11 43 54 148 30 54 12 44 56 149 32 59 12 42 56 149 35 59 14 36 49 157 38 64 15 36 47 160 37 65 17 33 44 162 41 65 17 40 46 160 42 65 14 36 44 4 2 0 0 6 2 7 2 5 0 1 -1 5 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 5 0 -2 0 0 3 0 2 -6 -7 8 3 5 1 0 -2 3 2 -2 -1 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 -3 -3 7 -4 -3 2 -2 Source: Company, MOSL Valuation and view Core retail operations of PF remained lackluster due to weak consumer sentiment during the quarter and shift in festive season. However, we note that Pantaloon's peer, Shoppers Stop (predominantly a Lifestyle retailer) reported sequential improvement in operations. Low SSS has resulted in sharp deterioration in operating leverage, as Core Retail EBITDA margins remain flat despite gross margins improvement. High leverage servicing continues to take toll on bottomline. Results apart, PF continues to restructure its businesses (detailed below). Stake sale in Pantaloon format to ABNL, divestment in Future Capital and anticipated stake sell in its insurance verticals as well as Staples JV will help shift focus back to Retail businesses and stop further cash burn in non-Retail adventures. While frequent change in business structure renders like-to-like comparison difficult, we believe emergence of simpler independent retail verticals will help PF raise capital going forward. 15 November 2012 3 Pantaloon Retail We await more clarify from management on financials of different verticals post the recent business re-structuring. Maintain Neutral. De-merger of Fashion Business into a separate entity; to be listed Pantaloon continues to re-structure its business and has now announced de-merger of its Fashion format business into a separate company - Future Fashion. Details of the proposed de-merger are as follows: PRIL and FVIL (Future Ventures India Ltd) will de-merge their respective fashion businesses into a new entity - Future Lifestyle Fashions (FF)- that will get listed. PF will transfer INR12.26b of debt from its books to FF. Future Value Retail, 100% subsidiary of Pantaloon, will be merged into PF. We note that management had carved this business out of PF in CY10 to better focus on Value Retail portfolio. Post the de-merger - Future Fashion will include fashion businesses of a) PRIL - Central, Brand Factory, aLL, Planet Sports b) FVIL - portfolio of fashion brands being transferred to FF including Indigo Nation, Scullers, Urbana, Urban Yoga, Jealous 21, Biba, AND, Global Desi, Turtle, Celio, Lee Cooper, Clarks, Holii, Daniel Hechter, Manchester United, Privilege Club. Swap Ratio 1 equity share in Future Fashion for every 3 shares held in Pantaloon Retail (India) Limited. 1 equity share in Future Fashion for every 31 shares held in Future Venture (India) Limited. Post the realignment, PRIL shareholders will hold 49.8% in Future Fashion, FVIL shareholders 30.5%, and PRIL (as a corporate entity) 19.7%. 15 November 2012 4 Pantaloon Retail Proposed restructuring Source: Company On completion of the proposed de-merger scheme Future group will have three separately listed companies focusing on specific verticals. 1. Pantaloon - Hypermarket (Big Bazaar), Supermarket (Food Bazaar), Home Retailing (Home Town) and electronics (E-Zone). It will continue to own the investments made in various retail support subsidiaries (supply chain solutions, sourcing, ecommerce, office supplies), JVs in insurance, and textile mills in Mumbai. It will operate 11msf of space. 2. Future Fashion - Central, Brand Factory, aLL and Planet Sports along with various brands being transferred from FVIL. It will operate 3.5msf of space. 3. Future Ventures - Portfolio of various FMCG private label brands, rural distribution chain (Aadhar) and convenience store chains, KB's Fairprice & Big Apple. The FMCG brands portfolio includes Fresh & Pure, Premium Harvest, Tasty Treat, Clean Mate, Care Mate, Poonya, Ekta, Sangi's Kitchen along with Smith & Jones and Ching's Secret (owned through a 43.7% stake in Capital Foods). Estimated revenues for CY13 (Pro-forma) for the listed entities of group 15 November 2012 Listed company Retail space (M sqft) Pantaloon (PF) Future Fashion FVIL 11 3.5 NA No of stores 315 142 NA Pro forma CY13 est revenue(INR B) 98 31 13.5 Source: Company, MOSL 5 Pantaloon Retail Future group structure post the de-merger of Fashion business Source: Company Comments on de-merger The proposed de-merger, in our view is aimed at creating a simplified structure so as to facilitate capital raising for different verticals. Pantaloon, as a part of its strategy to reduce non-core exposure, has recently divested its stake in Future Capital (41.58%). It is also reportedly in talks to sell its stake in insurance verticals. We await better clarity on financials of Fashions verticals as well as the overall impact of recent restructuring initiatives on PF's financials. 15 November 2012 6 Pantaloon Retail Financials and Valuation Income Statement Y/E June Net Sales Change (%) Total expenditure EBIDTA Change (%) Margin (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income - recurring Profit Before tax Change (%) Margin (%) Tax Tax Rate (%) Profit After Tax Change (%) Margin (%) Extraordinary Items Reported PAT (INR Million) 2008 50,489 56.0 45,884 4,605 113.6 9.1 834 1,853 38 1,956 112.4 3.9 697 35.6 1,260 107.5 2.5 0 1,260 2009 63,417 25.6 56,904 6,513 41.4 10.3 1,401 3,182 61 1,991 1.8 3.1 757 38.0 1,235 -2.0 1.9 0 1,235 2010 89,264 40.8 81,070 8,194 25.8 9.2 2,123 3,913 106 2,264 13.7 2.5 582 25.7 1,683 36.3 1.9 622 2,304 2011 110,122 23.4 100,522 9,600 17.2 8.7 2,676 4,288 209 2,845 25.7 2.6 948 33.3 1,897 12.8 1.7 0 1,897 2011 434 635 29,343 30,412 48,753 1,651 80,816 2012E* 447 0 30,719 31,166 60,188 1,699 93,053 Balance Sheet 15 November 2012 2012E* 122,526 11.3 111,568 10,958 14.1 8.9 3,518 6,097 238 1,581 -44.4 1.3 510 32.3 1,071 -43.6 0.9 0 1,071 (INR Million) Y/E June Share Capital Pref Shares Reserves Networth Loans Deffered Tax Capital Employed 2008 319 2009 381 18,148 18,466 21,918 678 41,063 22,343 22,724 28,504 1,161 52,389 2010 412 647 26,999 28,058 29,152 1,294 58,504 Gross Block Less: Acc Depre Net Fixed Asssets CWIP Investments Lease Deposits 13,688 1,706 11,982 3,306 5,865 7,152 18,765 3,077 15,688 3,452 9,540 8,163 26,740 3,449 23,292 2,837 10,244 7,072 36,418 5,808 30,610 3,384 12,869 8,226 44,761 9,326 35,434 3,971 14,869 9,153 Current Asst L&A Inventory Receiveables Cash and Bank B Others Curr Lia & Prov Current Liabilities Provisions Net Current Assets App of Funds E: MOSL Estimates; *December 19,134 14,298 1,132 1,211 2,493 6,377 6,201 176 12,757 41,063 year ending 24,664 17,878 1,773 1,093 3,920 9,119 8,914 205 15,546 52,389 31,606 24,037 2,716 1,635 3,218 16,546 16,114 432 15,060 58,504 47,087 35,852 3,819 1,267 6,150 21,360 20,851 510 25,727 80,815 52,921 40,493 3,799 2,014 6,615 23,296 22,713 582 29,625 93,053 7 Pantaloon Retail Financials and Valuation Income Statement Y/E June Basic (INR) EPS Cash EPS BV/Share DPS Payout % (INR Million) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E* 7.9 13.1 115.9 0.7 8.5 6.5 13.8 119.4 0.7 10.2 8.2 18.5 136.1 0.8 9.8 8.7 21.1 140.1 0.9 10.3 4.8 20.5 139.5 1.2 25.0 24.3 10.7 0.7 7.4 1.5 0.4 22.7 9.4 0.7 8.1 1.4 0.5 41.3 9.6 0.7 7.9 1.4 0.6 Valuation (x) P/E Cash P/E EV/Sales EV/EBIDTA P/BV Dividend Yield (%) Return Ratios (%) RoE Core RoCE RoCE 6.8 13.7 11.3 5.4 14.9 12.5 6.0 16.1 14.2 6.2 13.5 12.1 3.4 13.3 12.0 Working Capital ratios Debtors Days Inventory Turn 8 4.4 10 3.9 11 4.3 13 3.7 11 3.2 Leverage Ratio Debt/Equity (x) 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.9 2008 1,919 38 834 1,853 577 2,976 1,015 8,012 3,453 3,345 -14,811 2009 1,931 61 1,401 3,182 274 2,906 3,273 5,223 1,011 3,675 -9,909 2010 2,158 106 2,123 3,913 448 -1,028 8,667 7,360 -1,091 704 -6,351 2011 2,636 209 2,676 4,288 592 11,036 -2,236 10,225 1,154 2,625 -14,004 2012E* 1,343 238 3,518 6,097 462 3,152 7,106 8,930 927 2,000 -11,858 6,410 8,922 125 1,853 -22 13,376 -419 1,630 1,211 3,158 6,586 135 3,182 -92 6,519 -118 1,211 1,093 3,230 648 181 3,913 1,558 -1,774 542 1,093 1,636 692 19,601 214 4,288 -80 15,872 -368 1,635 1,267 -1 11,435 295 6,097 -456 5,498 746 1,267 2,013 Cash Flow Statement Y/E June OP/(loss) before Tax Int./Div. Received Depreciation and Amort. Interest Paid Direct Taxes Paid (Incr)/Decr in WC CF from Operations (Incr)/Decr in FA Lease Deposits (Pur)/Sale of Investments CF from Invest. Issue of Shares (Incr)/Decr in Debt Dividend Paid Interest Paid Others CF from Fin. Activity Incr/Decr of Cash Add: Opening Balance Closing Balance E: MOSL Estimates 15 November 2012 (INR Million) 8 Pantaloon Retail N O T E S 15 November 2012 9 Disclosures This report is for personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. 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