Dec 10, 2015
by Steve Freed, VP of Research
Mixed to higher grain trade. Lack of new news and good weekly US export Sales may have
triggered some short covering the day after the USDA Report. US dollar was higher. US
stocks were higher. Crude slipped below $37.
Soybeans ended higher. SH tested support the 8.75 then rallied to initial resistance near
8.85. Weekly US soybean export sales were 1.45 mmt. This was above expectations. Season
to date shipments are near 21.2 mmt vs 22.7 ly. Total commit is near 34.4 mmt vs 40.5 ly.
China commit is near 20.3 mmt. USDA goal is 46.7 mmt vs 50.2 ly. Some est final exports
closer to 45.0. USDA still est 2015/16 soybean price range at 8.15-9.65 vs 10.10 ly. Market
is waiting for new Argentina government to announce new Ag policy and export taxes.
Market is also waiting to see if Congress can find a way to pass a biofuel producer blend
credit. Analyst est US 2015/16 soybean carryout from 517-558 mil bu vs USDA 465. Most
of the higher est is due to lower demand than USDA. Analyst est US 2016/17 soybean
carryout near 650 mil bu. Crop 3,790.
90
29.0%
80
27.0%
70
25.0%
60
23.0%
50
21.0%
40
19.0%
30
17.0%
20
15.0%
10
13.0%
0
Stocks / Usage Ratio
Ending Stocks (MMT)
World Soybeans - Ending Stocks vs.
Stocks / Usage Ratio
11.0%
85
87
89
91
The Hightower Report
Most Recent: As Of 12/09/2015
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
Crop Year Beginning
Ending Stocks
Stocks / Usage Ratio
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is
provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author
of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The
information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any
decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way
deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.
Corn closed higher and near session highs. CH is near 3.79. CH held support near 3.72.
Could have been some short covering after failure to push below support and after the
USDA report. Resistance is from 3.80 to 3.82. Weekly US export sales were also better than
expected. Weekly US corn export sales were 1.10 mmt. Season to date shipments are near
7.2 mmt vs 9.9 ly. Total commit is near 18.2 mmt vs 23.7 ly. USDA goal is 44.4 mmt vs 47.4
ly. USDA still est 2015/16 corn price range at 3.35-3.95 vs 3.70 ly. Analyst est US 2015/16
corn carryout from 1,800-1,900 mil bu vs USDA 1,785. Higher est due to lower demand.
Analyst est US 2016/17 corn carryout near 2,300 mil bu. 2016 Crop is est near 14,200. This
assumes higher acres and trend yield.
230
50%
210
45%
190
40%
170
35%
150
30%
130
25%
110
20%
90
15%
70
10%
Stocks / Usage Ratio
Ending Stocks (MMT)
World Corn - Ending Stocks vs.
Stocks / Usage Ratio
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Crop Year Beginning
The Hightower Report| Source: USDA
Most Recent: As Of 12/09/2015
Ending Stocks
Stocks / Usage Ratio
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is
provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author
of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The
information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any
decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way
deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.
Wheat closed higher on short covering. This despite lower than expected US weekly export
sales. Global 2016 wheat crop weather is also off to a mostly good start esp US and EU. FSU
conditions have also improved. USDA increased EU stocks. This also offers resistance to EU
prices. Weekly US wheat export sales were 225 mmt. Season to date shipments are near
10.2 mmt vs 12.4 ly. Total commit is near 14.7 mmt vs 17.4 ly. USDA goal is 21.8 mmt vs
23.2 ly. USDA still est 2015/16 wheat price range at 4.80-5.20 vs 5.99 ly. Analyst est US
2015/16 wheat carryout from 911-935 mil bu vs USDA 911. Analyst est US 2016/17 wheat
carryout near 1,075 mil bu. 2016 US wheat Crop is est near 2,150. This due to est of a
normal yield.
250
39%
230
36%
210
33%
190
30%
170
27%
150
24%
130
110
21%
90
18%
70
Stocks / Usage Ratio
Ending Stocks (MMT)
World Wheat - Ending Stocks vs.
Stocks / Usage Ratio
15%
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Crop Year Beginning
The Hightower Report
Most Recent: As Of 12/09/2015
Ending Stocks
Stocks / Usage Ratio
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is
provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author
of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The
information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any
decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way
deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.