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What we talk about when we talk about climate services
Serna Chavez, H.M.
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Serna Chávez, H. M. (2016). What we talk about when we talk about climate services
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Download date: 18 Jun 2017
WHAT WE TALK ABOUT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT CLIMATE SERVICES
WHAT WE
TALK ABOUT
WHEN WE
TALK ABOUT CLIMATE
SERVICES
Héctor M. Serna Chávez
Héctor M. Serna Chávez
What We Talk About
When We Talk About
Climate Services
i
Serna Chávez, H. M. (2016)
What We Talk About When We Talk About Climate Services
The research compiled in this dissertation was carried out at the Institute for
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics of the University of Amsterdam. The
Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), through the Innovational
Research Incentives Scheme (VIDI, grant number: 276-20-017), sponsored the
research.
ISBN: 978-94-91407-30-7
Cover photo: Tropical deforestation in Sabah, Malaysia, by Rhett Butler.
Mongabay.com. Design and layout by the Héctor M. Serna Chávez and Sikko Baltus.
Chapter covers: 1. Looking up General Sherman tree in California's Sequoia
National Park, USA. 2. Redwood National Park, USA. 3. Soil layers by ©GFX_Artist.
4. Deforested landscape in the Brazilian Amazon by Ricardo Funari/Getty Images. 5.
Shade grown coffee berries in Nicaragua (brucestambaugh.com). 6. Map of tree
height in the Amazon rainforest based on multiple satellite datasets for the year
2010 (NASA Earth Observatory). 7. Deforestation in Borneo by Matthias Klum,
National Geographic Creative.
Printed by GVO printers & designers B.V.
Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
ii
What We Talk About
When We Talk About
Climate Services
ACADEMISCH PROEFSCHRIFT
ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor
aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam
op gezag van de Rector Magnificus
prof. dr. D. C. van den Boom
ten overstaan van een door het college voor promoties
ingestelde commissie,
in het openbaar te verdedigen in de Agnietenkapel
op donderdag 10 maart 2016, te 10.00 uur
door
Héctor Mario Serna Chávez
geboren te Monterrey, México.
iii
Promotiecommissie
Promotores
Copromotores
Overige leden
prof. dr. ir. W. Bouten1
prof. dr. ir. P. M. van Bodegom2
prof. dr. M.D. Davidson1
prof. dr. J.C. Biesmeijer1
prof. dr. P.H. van Tienderen1
prof. dr. P.H. Verburg3
prof. dr. M.A. de Zavala Girones4
dr. rer. nat. W.D. Kissling1
dr. H. ter Steege5
Faculteit der Natuurwetenschappen, Wiskunde en Informatica
1
University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
2
Leiden University, The Netherlands
3
Free University, The Netherlands
4
University of Alcala, Spain
5
Utrecht University, The Netherlands
iv
Table of contents
Page
Chapter 1: Introduction
1
Foreword
2
1.1 A new normal
3
1.2 Climate regulation is in ecosystem’s nature
4
1.3 Climate regulation as one of nature’s services
6
1.4 Ecological research for ecosystem services
8
9
1.4.1
A call for ecology and determinants
1.4.2
Effects of spatial scale
11
1.5 Research objectives and synopsis
12
1.6 Glossary of terms
13
1.7 References
14
Chapter 2: Strong Biotic Controls on Climate Services
19
at Temperate Regional Scale
Summary
20
2.1 Introduction
21
2.2 Materials & Methods
23
2.2.1 Climate regulation processes: biophysical and
biogeochemical components
24
2.2.2 Determinants of climate regulation processes
24
2.2.2 Statistical analyses
26
2.3 Results
27
2.3.1 Abiotic determinants of climate regulation
27
processes
2.3.2 Biotic determinants of climate regulation
28
processes
2.3.3 Combined effects of biotic and abiotic
29
determinants
2.4 Discussion
2.4.1 Bioclimatic and soil effects on climate regulation
v
29
2.4.2 Strong effects of forest structure and functional
traits on climate regulation
33
2.4.3 Understanding patterns of climate regulation
services
38
2.5 Acknowledgements
39
2.6 References
39
Appendix A – Supplementary methods and results
45
Chapter 3: Global Determinants and Patterns of Soil
57
M icrobial Biomass
Summary
58
3.1 Introduction
59
3.2 Materials & Methods
3.2.1 Soil microbial biomass carbon estimates
60
3.2.2 Soil data
61
3.2.3 Climate data
62
3.2.4. Statistical analysis
63
3.3 Results
64
3.3.1 Quantification of global environmental
64
determinants
3.3.2 Multivariate models to predict global patterns of
microbial biomass
65
3.3.3 Global estimates of microbial biomass
69
3.4. Discussion
3.4.1 Global determinants of microbial abundance
69
3.4.2. Future improvements in soil microbial biomass
73
estimates
3.4.3 Spatial patterns and estimates of microbial
biomass
74
3.5 Acknowledgements
76
3.6 References
76
Appendix B1 – Supplementary methods and results
80
Appendix B2 – Scatterplots with primary and secondary
87
determinants
vi
Chapter 4: M ulti-scale Assessment of Factors
95
Determining Climate Regulation Services
Summary
96
4.1 Introduction
97
4.2 Materials & Methods
98
4.2.1 Data on climate regulation processes
98
4.2.2 Determinants of climate regulation processes
4.2.2.1 Abiotic determinants: climate, the
environment and its heterogeneity
100
4.2.2.2 Biotic determinants: functional diversity,
vegetation cover and biomass
4.2.2.3 Fragmentation determinants: forest
fragmentation metrics
4.2.3 Data analyses
4.2.3.1 Spatial extents and sampling
4.2.3.2 Variance partitioning using three explanatory
categories
4.2.3.3 Independent and joint effects
100
102
103
103
104
105
4.3 Results
4.3.1 Dominance of determinants of climate regulation
services across spatial extents
106
4.3.2 Model and determinant effects change as extent
106
increases
4.3.3 The effects of individual determinants change with
111
extent size
4.4 Discussion
112
4.4.1 Conserved hierarchy in determinants of climate
112
regulation
4.4.2 Idiosyncratic determinants and changes with
114
spatial extent
4.4.3 Increasing our understanding of scale effects on
determinants of ecosystem services
116
4.5 Acknowledgements
117
4.6 References
117
Appendix C1. Forest fragmentation analyses
125
Appendix C2. Supplementary methods and results
130
vii
Chapter 5: A Quantitative Framework to Assess Spatial
167
Flows of Ecosystem Services
Summary
168
5.1 Introduction
169
5.2 Materials & Methods
171
5.2.1. A generic framework to characterize and quantify
spatial flows of ecosystem services
171
5.2.2 Local-scale spatial ecosystem service flow:
175
pollination services
5.2.3. Large-scale ecosystem service flows
5.2.3.1. Groundwater provision
176
5.2.3.2. Climate regulation
177
5.3.1. Local-scale pollination service flows
178
5.3. Results
5.3.2. Large scale spatial flows
5.3.2.1. Groundwater service flows
178
5.3.2.2. Climate regulation service flow
180
5.4. Discussion
5.4.1. A framework for ecosystem service flows
182
5.4.2. Caveats and future research needs
185
5.5. Acknowledgements
187
5.6 References
188
Appendix D – Supplementary methods
192
Chapter 6: General Discussion
195
6.1 Revisiting research questions and findings
196
6.2 Patterns of climate regulation processes and biodiversity
197
6.3 Factors determining climate regulation processes
203
6.3.1 Determinants at small spatial scales
206
6.5 New technologies to monitor determinants and changes
208
6.6 Concluding remarks
209
6.7 References
210
General Summary
217
218
Samenvatting (Nederland)
206
6.4 Strong climatic controls in a warm new world
viii
General Summary (English)
221
Resumen (Español)
224
Author Contributions
227
Author Affiliations
228
About Author
229
ix
‘A mere thank you seems so little a compensation for the
magnificence of who you are and what you have done for
me.1’ I am especially grateful to Peter van Bodegom, Dim
Hemeltjen, Alba I. León, Lisa Friedman, Edith and Alán
Serna for different but at times overlapping reasons. Without
them this doctoral dissertation would not be in your hands
(or on your screen).
Excerpt from ‘Gypsy boy: My life in the secret
world of roman gypsies’ by Mikey Walsh.
Thomas Dunne Books, St. Martin’s Press, NY,
USA.
1
x
What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up
like a raisin in the sun?
Or fester like a sore—
And then run?
Does it stink like rotten meat?
Or crust and sugar over—
like a syrupy sweet?
Maybe it just sags
like a heavy load.
Or does it explode?
Harlem by
Langston Hughes
xi
‘Author is not ungrateful. The life he’d led, the writing life. It
had been beyond his wildest dreams. He’d been treated
generously over the years, touted and well received. Still,
Author had put everything he had into his latest [work]. Not
just emotion, not just all he’d got in the gumption sort of
way, but literally all he had. All this time, all his money, a
hunk of his life. Of course, this is what [the work] had asked
of him, that he forgo all distraction and every comfort, that
he simply put his head down and work. But some [times] are
more delicate than others. And from this one, he’d lifted his
eyes
up
and
discovered
that2’
he almost missed the world.
2Excerpt
from short story titled ‘The Reader,’ in the
collection ‘What We Talk About When We Talk About
Anne Frank’ by Nathan Englander. Knopf. New York 2012.
xii