Elish & Elish, Inc. – Dividend Achiever Advisory Service Newsletter
165 East Pike Street
Canonsburg, Pa 15317
January 6, 2011
www.ElishBr.com
[email protected]
724-745-2200
TOLL FREE 800-837-7825
Outlook
What is the Dividend Achiever Advisory Service?
Elish & Elish, Inc. offers to its customers an advisory service where customers have a
portfolio managed by Peter M. Elish for a fee. Elish created the portfolio for individuals desiring growth and income to provide a total return. Elish emphasizes in the portfolio only stocks that have positive earnings for at least the preceding five years and the
companies must have increased its annual dividend for at least the last five years too.
Elish further screens the portfolio looking for exceptional growth potential by searching for solid
companies that are temporarily out of favor and have great value. Call Pete today to receive the
Elish & Elish, Inc. – Dividend Achiever Advisory Service Brochure before you invest.
PLAN B INVESTING
The 10% Stop Loss Theory - The DJIA closed at 11,722.89. Attendees of the Elish
seminar last May and of the mini Elish office seminars have a better appreciation
of the significance of dropping 10%. The 10% mark for the DJIA is now 10,550.60.
Contact Elish for details and upcoming seminars.
COMMENT:
The events of 2010 led Elish to the conclusion that the DJIA will rise to 25,000 with in ten years.
The world changed as of last August 27 and September 1. Ben Bernacke, Federal Reserve Board
Chairman, spoke in Jackson Hole, WY., to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium
on August 27 that set the stage for September 1 when the stock market rally began. Bernacke assured that the Feds would continue to play a significant role in promoting economic recovery and he
reviewed what policy options the Feds had available should such action become necessary. The
power of this speech is seen by examining the DJIA pre-speech and post-speech. The DJIA waffled
pre-speech, broadly traveling as follows: 10,500 start; drop to 9,900; up to 11,200; down to 9,900
again, up to 10,700; and close at 10,014 on August 31, 2010. The market for the first eights months
was down by 4.5%. Bernancke’s speech empowered the DJIA to close at 10,269 on September 1,
2010, a one day gain of 2.5%. The DJIA ended the year at 11,577 for a four month gain of 15.6%
and an annualized gain of nearly 47%. The difference in fundamentals, corporate earnings, unemployment, housing, etc. did not have the same gains that the DJIA had.
Why predict DJIA of 25,000? The DJIA closed today at 11,700 with a price earnings ratio (P/E)
of 13. Elish believes politics will dominate the stock market. Elish predicts that the price earnings
ratio of the DJIA will inflate to 30, essentially the number associated with the DJIA when it peaked
during the internet bubble. A P/E ratio of 30 for the DJIA equates to a DJIA of 27,000; but Elish
rounds down to the big round number of 25,000. Rounding up is DJIA of 30,000.
Why ten years? The answer is Elish intuition.
Elish revised its Indicator scale to be 0 – 10, a more conventional standard. Elish also added a
new Indicator, the Elish QE2 Indicator which is a measure of politics. The indicator is the reversal of
the Elish Indicator. For example, if the Elish Indicator is 4, then the Elish QE2 Indicator is 6, which
is 10 minus 4.
Please see www.ElishBr.com as a study of Volatility is posted on it which will be updated monthly
along with a great definition of an Up Gap.
Interest Rates – What does the Yield Curve Look Like?
The Yield Curve is normal since interest rates increase as the maturities increase.
For the Dow Jones
Industrial Average?
The DJIA closed today at 11,722.89.
December 2010 was an up month for the
DJIA starting at 11,006.02 and ending at
11,571.51 for a gain of 565 points.
Elish sees the potential new high for the
DJIA at 11,850 up slightly from last month
and the potential new low at 9,500 the same
as last month.
~
Are we in a
BULL or BEAR?
Bull is UP / Bear is DOWN
~
Elish Market Indicator: 3.67
Comment: Economic Indicator
Elish Market QE2 Indicator: 6.33
Comment: Political Indicator
0 = Bear 10 = Bull
New Scale - see comment
When examining US Treasury Debt reported by Incapital
When examining US Treasury Debt reported by Incapital
2 Year
3 Year
5 Year
10 Year
30 Year
0.61%
1.01%
2.03%
3.34%
4.38% - This month
0.52%
0.75%
1.51%
2.84%
4.17% - Last month
Note: Treasury Bonds are subject to availability prior to placing an order to Buy.
The Total Public Debt Outstanding re: http://www.treasurydirect.gov
$13,997,932,781,828.89
$13,840,966,239,053.91
$13,658,812,457,389.51
$13,561,623,030,891.79
$13,409,652,537,035.05
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January 03, 2011 Dec. 02, 2010 Oct. 28, 2010
Sept. 30, 2010
August 31, 2010
Price of Gold
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Please see the archived newsletters at www.ElishBr.com for older data.
(GLD:NYSE)
138.00
135.20
131.24
127.91
122.08
“Let’s Nor Forget”
Category
Elish newsletters mentioned a gap in the
chart of the DJIA at 8,370 established
on July 15, 2009. Actually, the gap is on
the chart of SPDR Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DIA) at 83.71. That gap has
yet to fill. Elish believes that the longer an
up gap takes to fill, the more severe the
correction will be.
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Elish & Elish, Inc.
Members: FINRA and SIPC
Disclosure The Elish & Elish, Inc. Dividend Achiever Advisory Service is not for everybody mainly due to the higher minimum investment. The contents of this newsletter are not to be
construed as a Buy or Sell recommendation. Suitability and investment objectives are important before investing. Past results are not indicative of the future. Investing in the
stock market carries risk. The accounts are not guaranteed and also do not have FDIC insurance.