The Journal of Nutrition
Supplement: The Impact of Climate Change, the Economic Crisis,
and the Increase in Food Prices on Malnutrition
High Food Prices and the Global Financial Crisis
Have Reduced Access to Nutritious Food and
Worsened Nutritional Status and Health1,2
Henk-Jan Brinkman,3* Saskia de Pee,3,5 Issa Sanogo,4 Ludovic Subran,6 and Martin W. Bloem3,5,7
3
Policy, Planning and Strategy Division and 4Programme Design and Support Division, World Food Programme, Rome 00148, Italy;
Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, MA 02111; 6Agriculture and Rural Development, World
Bank, Washington, DC 20433; and 7Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205
5
Abstract
A global economic and financial crisis is engulfing the developing world, coming on top of high food and fuel prices. This
paper assesses the impact of the crises on food consumption, nutrition, and health. Several methods were applied,
consumption score (FCS), reflecting diet frequency and diversity, and a review of the impact of such dietary changes on
nutritional status and health. The cost of the food basket increased in several countries, forcing households to reduce
quality and quantity of food consumed. The FCS, which is a measure of diet diversity, is negatively correlated with food
prices. Simulations show that energy consumption declined during 2006–2010 in nearly all developing regions, resulting
potentially in an additional 457 million people (of 4.5 billion) at risk of being hungry and many more unable to afford the
dietary quality required to perform, develop, and grow well. As a result of the crises, large numbers of vulnerable
households have reduced the quality and quantity of foods they consume and are at risk of increased malnutrition.
Population groups most affected are those with the highest requirements, including young children, pregnant and lactating
women, and the chronically ill (particularly people with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis). Because undernutrition during the first
2 y of life has life-long consequences, even short-term price rises will have long-term effects. Thus, measures to mitigate
the impact of the crises are urgently required. J. Nutr. 140: 153S–161S, 2010.
Introduction
The world has faced higher food and fuel prices in recent years,
particularly since 2005. Between 2000 and its peak in 2008, the
FAO cereal price index more than tripled. The increase in cereal
Published in a supplement to The Journal of Nutrition. Presented at the
workshop “The Impact of Climate Change, the Economic Crisis, and the
Increase in Food Prices on Malnutrition,” held in Castel Gandolfo, Italy, January
25, 2009. The workshop was organized by Martin W. Bloem, United Nations
World Food Programme, Rome, Italy; Klaus Kraemer, Sight and Life, Basel,
Switzerland; and Richard D. Semba, Johns Hopkins University School of
Medicine, and with the support of an educational grant from Sight and Life,
Basel, Switzerland. Supplement contents are solely the responsibility of the
authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the organization
that they are affiliated with. Publication costs for this supplement were defrayed
in part by the payment of page charges. This publication must therefore be
hereby marked "advertisement" in accordance with 18 USC section 1734 solely
to indicate this fact. Supplement Coordinator disclosures: Martin Bloem, Klaus
Kraemer, and Richard Semba have no relationships to disclose. Supplement
Guest Editor disclosures: A. Catharine Ross and Richard Semba have no
relationships to disclose. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of
the authors and are not attributable to the sponsors or the publisher, Editor, or
Editorial Board of The Journal of Nutrition.
2
H-J. Brinkman, S. de Pee, I. Sanogo, L. Subran, and M. W. Bloem, no conflicts
of interest.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: henk-jan.brinkman@
wfp.org.
1
0022-3166/08 $8.00 ã 2010 American Society for Nutrition.
First published online November 25, 2009; doi:10.3945/jn.109.110767.
prices has led to a reduction in the quality and the quantity of
food consumed among vulnerable households who spend a large
share of their income on food and have few coping mechanisms
at their disposal (1). Vulnerable populations switch to cheaper
food that fills their stomachs but is less nutritious. When
nutritional needs are not met, people become prone to illness,
perform worse at school, and have lower productivity. Even 6
mo of inadequate nutrition before the age of 2 y has important
long-term consequences due to its largely irreversible effects on
an individual’s physical and mental development and future
potential (2). This affects not only the individual, and offspring,
but also the longer-term growth prospects of the country.
Survey evidence suggests that households have reduced the
quantity and quality of food consumed in the face of higher food
prices. High food prices have eroded coping capacities of many
households and countries across the developing world. On top
of that, they are now facing a global financial crisis. Direct
confirmation that hunger, malnutrition, and nutritional status
have broadened and deepened in 2007 and 2008 as a result of
high food prices is circumstantial (3).
Because direct and real-time evidence on food consumption is
difficult to gather, we use a number of different methods to assess
the relationship of changes of food prices and income with food
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including risk analysis using the cost of the food basket, assessment surveys, simulations, regression analysis using a food
consumption and food access and discuss existing research on
the impact of these changes on nutritional status and health.
Channels of impact: a framework
High food prices
The population groups most vulnerable to high food prices are
those who spend a large share of their income on food, buy more
food than they sell (net buyers), and have few coping strategies
at their disposal. These groups include the urban poor, rural
landless, pastoralists, and many small-scale farmers.
Poor families in developing countries spend between 50 and
80% of their incomes on food. In many countries, the middle
class are at risk as well. For a middle-class family spending a
total of US$6 to $10 per capita per day, food still accounts for 35
to 65% of expenditures. In most developing countries, .80% of
the population lives on ,US$10 per capita per day (4). High
food prices are, therefore, likely to affect the majority of the
population in developing countries.
It is often assumed that farmers would benefit from higher
food prices, but only a minority of farmers, typically ,20%,
produce enough surplus to be categorized as net sellers (5,6).
Farmers sell food crops even when their harvest will not be
sufficient for their own consumption needs for the year. They sell
for a low price at harvest time and buy at a high price during the
lean season because they need cash, have no storage capacity,
and lack financial services. They have no option other than
selling their only liquid asset: the cereals harvested (7). The fact
that most households are net buyers implies that most of them
may be adversely affected by high food prices.
Global financial crisis
The financial crisis started in the US but quickly spread to
Europe and developing countries. Developing countries are
facing slower economic growth, a steep fall in exports, a decline
in foreign capital, lower remittances, lower tourism revenues,
depreciating exchange rates (making food imports more expensive) and, possibly, less aid. This is leading to job losses of
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Supplement
FIGURE 1 Framework for the analysis of malnutrition. Adapted with
permission from UNICEF (36).
possibly 50 million (8). Government budgets in developing
countries are also under pressure, which could translate into
lower expenditures on social protection and government services. This could affect malnutrition through lower subsidies or
higher taxes on food and fuel and through the health, water, and
sanitation sectors.
One positive aspect of the global financial and economic
crisis is that international food and fuel prices have declined,
although less so at national levels. The FAO food and cereal
price indices declined by about one-third between June and
December 2008. Slower demand growth, alleviation of weatherrelated supply constraints, easing of export restrictions, lower
transport costs, and a stronger dollar have contributed to lower
food prices. Yet food prices are still high and are expected to
remain relatively high because of structural factors, such as low
stocks, low productivity growth, climate change, and demand
for biofuels (6). The FAO Cereal Price Index in January 2009
was still 80% above the 2005 level and double the 2000 level.
Impact on food consumption
We make a distinction between an impact assessment and a risk
analysis of impact. Risk refers to the probability of food
insecurity resulting from interactions between hazards and
vulnerable conditions. Vulnerability is a function of exposure
to a hazard and the capacity to mitigate and cope with the
hazard’s effects. Risk analysis can be conducted ex ante using
secondary data. An advantage is that specific effects, such as
high food prices, can be isolated. It does not, however, account
for coping strategies.
Impact assessments use primary data and are conducted ex
post. They account for all factors that might influence food
security, including the capacity to cope with shocks, and,
therefore, isolating specific causes can be difficult.
High food prices
Direct observation of food consumption in terms of grams is
difficult and expensive and not feasible for a large number of
countries in a relatively short time span (9). The challenge lies in
getting cost-efficient monitoring tools for food access at the
household level that complement food availability aggregates
and do not require data-intensive household surveys. Indicators
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Malnutrition is a complex phenomenon with multiple causes.
Food access is one of them. Other factors are caring practices
and health care and environment. High food prices and the
global financial crisis have affected several underlying factors of
malnutrition. This is illustrated in Figure 1, which is adapted
from the original framework for causes of malnutrition developed by the United Nations Children’s Fund.
Separating the different causes and quantifying the impact of
high food prices and the global financial crisis on malnutrition is
not easy. In this paper, we focused on the direct link between
prices and incomes on the one hand and food consumption and
nutrition on the other hand. Food access is determined by
income and the prices of foods. High food prices have reduced
food access for net buyers and the financial crisis is largely
affecting the income component of food access through job
losses and reduced pay.
The transmission of the crises to developing countries
depends on vulnerability factors. International prices do not
translate into local prices on a one-to-one basis. The transmission is influenced by several factors, including the percentage of
food that is imported and the ability of governments to change
taxes and/or subsidies (6). Regarding the global financial crisis,
countries highly dependent on exports to developed countries,
capital flows, and remittances are likely to be more vulnerable.
TABLE 1
The impact of high food prices on the cost of a food basket in 20081
Increase in the cost of the food basket, %
Compared with last year
Countries
A
Niger
Senegal
Ethiopia
Cambodia
Indonesia
Nepal
Energy share,
%
B
Millet
Sorghum
Imported rice
Maize
Imported rice
Millet
Sorghum
Maize
Maize
Wheat
Sorghum
Rice
Cheaper rice
Rice
Wheat
Maize
Sorghum
Bean
Rice
C
48
12
8
2
32
10
4
4
21
18
10
69
50
37
14
31
6
5
4
Price
change,2 %
D
31
39
36
72
90
5
1
13
194
123
203
88
8
37
41
27
9
5
48
E
21
23
39
57
99
27
6
37
234
145
199
135
41
60
71
27
29
44
91
Contribution by
commodity
F = C×D
15
5
3
1
29
1
0
1
41
22
20
60
4
14
6
22
1
0
2
Countries, n
Food basket3
G
24
30
83
60
4
19
1
Simple average
Contribution by
commodity
H = C×E
10
3
3
1
32
3
0
1
49
26
20
93
21
22
10
8
2
2
4
Food basket3
I
17
36
95
93
21
32
16
Simple average
West and Central Africa
8
20
20
East and Southern Africa
14
57
68
Asia
11
23
45
2
21
30
35
36
48
Latin America
Total
1
Based on WFP (37).
Latest quarter over same quarter last year (column D) and latest quarter over same quarter last 5 y (column E).
3
Price impact on the cost of the food basket: low (,5%); moderate (5–10%); high (10–20%); very high (.20%).
2
need to reflect food and nutritional status and be sensitive to
covariant shocks, such as economic crises. Good indicators
could trigger preventive measures and avoid irreversible damage
and the need for high cost of therapeutic feeding. To assess the
impact of high food prices on food consumption, the World Food
Programme (WFP)8 has used a number of proxy measures. One of
them is based on the increase of the cost of the food basket.
WFP regularly calculates changes in the costs of food baskets
in 35 countries (10), based on a weighted average of price
changes, using the energy contributions to the food basket as
weights. Households with diverse energy sources are likely to be
less affected by price increases than households with a single
source, because households can substitute toward cheaper food
items unless significant price increases affect all the commodities
in the food basket. Increases in the cost of the food basket should
be interpreted as risks faced by households, because they do not
capture long-term and indirect impacts and coping capacities of
different households. For instance, substitution and income
effects due to price changes are disregarded. Table 1 illustrates
the method for selected countries and for geographical regions.
It shows that on average the cost of the food basket, using prices
for the latest available quarter in 2008, is 36% higher than for
8
Abbreviations used: FCS, food consumption score; GDP, gross domestic
product; WFP, World Food Programme.
the same quarter in 2007. The cost of the food basket is 48%
more expensive compared with the previous 5 y, varying
between 20% in West and Central Africa to 68% in East and
Southern Africa.
WFP also conducted several household-level food security
assessments in 2008 to assess the impact of high food prices. The
objective of the assessments was to determine whether countryspecific food price increases were leading to significant changes
in the food security status of the households.
WFP assessments found widespread evidence of reductions in
the quality and quantity of food consumed. The country-specific
findings are summarized in Table 2. The assessments also found
some evidence of reductions in health care visits or health
expenditures, increased school drop-outs, or sale of economic
assets (1).
Another proxy used by WFP is the Food Consumption Score
(FCS), which is used to measure the diversity and frequency of
food consumed within a 7-d recall period. Derived from the
Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance Dietary Diversity Score
(11), the higher the score, the better the diet and the more food
secure is the household. This indicator has been validated as a
good measure to capture food and nutrition security in various
contexts (12–14) but still presents some challenges, such as
clustering around thresholds, seasonality, and intra-household
distribution (15).
High food prices, financial crisis, food, and nutrition
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El Salvador
Main staple
food
Compared with last 5 y
TABLE 2
Food prices and the impact on food expenditures and food consumption1
Country (period
of assessment)
Coverage
Extent of price increases
Cambodia (April 2008)
National
(desk review)
Rural and urban
Nepal (April–May 2008)
Rural
Wheat prices increased by ~200% in main
urban areas (May 2007–May 2008)
The price of rice increased by 100%, meat
by 50–70%, and fish and vegetables by
20–30% (May 2007–May 2008)
Deterioration of the terms of trade
(wage/price coarse rice) by ~15%
in mountains and hills and 9% in Terai
Food prices increased less in urban
than rural areas.
The deterioration of the terms of trade is
lower in urban areas (7%) than rural areas
Asia
Afghanistan (Jan–July 2008)
Urban
Pakistan (June 2008)
Rural
Limited pass-through effects of global
prices
Terms of trade (wage rate/wheat
price) deterioration
Palestine (April 2008)
Africa
Benin (July 2008)
National
The consumer food price index rose by
~15% and wheat flour prices increased
by ~70% (March 20072April 2008)
National
In real terms, maize price (the main staple)
increased by 197%, rice price by 20%,
and sorghum prices by 76% (July
2007–July 2008)
The price of a basket of basic food items
increased by 23% (December 2007–
April 2008)
Burkina Faso (June–July 2008)
Urban
Burundi (June–July 2008)
Urban
Djibouti (May 2008)
Rural
Ethiopia (July 2008)
Urban (in and
around the
capital)
Guinea (May 2008)
Rural
Kenya (July 2008)
Urban (Conakry)
Urban and rural
Lesotho (June 2008)
Urban
Prices for beans increased year-on-year
by 40%; cassava and sweet potatoes
prices remained stable
(July 2007–June 2008)
50–63% received less purchasing
power compared with 1 y ago
due to increased food and petrol prices
Wheat, teff, and rice prices
increased by ~100% in 1 y; maize
prices by ~180%, meat prices by 50%,
vegetables by 60%, sugar by ~40%,
and cooking oil by ~60%
Proportion of HH2 with a poor food consumption increased
16% compared with 2006 data
34% of farmers produce a surplus of rice. Their incomes
increased. About 50% of HH reported cutting back
on food to cope with higher prices.
Higher food prices result in worse FCS among the poor and extreme
poor, increased debts and lower quality of diets, sales of assets,
and taking children out of school.
The use of coping strategies in urban settings is less than in rural
areas, although urban HH tend to reduce the size and the frequency
of meals more often than rural HH.
The poorest quintile spends 13% more on food than 2 y ago.
The richest quintile spends 5% more.
Food expenditure rose by 10% and total expenditure by
4% in rural areas
Increased number of undernourished (,1700 kcal)3 rural population
from 25% in 2006 to 30% in 2008
Increased number of undernourished (,1700 kcal) urban population
from 21% in 2006 to 27% in 2008
50% of HH decreased food expenditures by reducing the quality,
mainly meat and milk (89%) and the quantity (76%)
Reduced number of meals in the
rural areas of Borgou and Alibori region
Increased food expenditures from 50 to 75% within 1 y
Reduced the number of meals and diet diversity and expenditures
on health and hygiene
Nutritional situation of the most vulnerable deteriorated;
increased number of children in feeding centers
95% of HH indicated an increase of their food expenditures
The most commonly reported shock, by 83%
of the HH, was unusually high food prices
15% of Gs reduced the quantity of food or/and reduced overall
(including food) expenditures
The share of poor FCS went up by as many as 10% points; the share of
borderline
FCS increased up to 15% points, equivalent to a decrease of the
share of acceptable food consumption group since 2006
Between January and July 2008, urban population with good
FCS decreased from 64 to 40%
Those with very poor FCS increased from 3% in January 2008 to
5% in July 2008
FCS among income groups relying on pensions and allowances fell by 16%
36% of cash-croppers were usually severely food insecure
Double-digit inflation rate over the last 5 y
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Supplement
Pastoralists faced terms of trade
deterioration
Terms of trade (wage/food prices)
decreased by 50% in urban settings
Vegetable oil prices increased by
100% and 1 kg of maize by
59% (March–July 2007)
29% HH reduced number of meal and 87% reduced quantity of meal
Pastoralist population living below the food poverty line rose by 23%
(from December 2007) to 75% in June 2008
Poor people were resorting to diet changes and reduction in frequency
and composition of meals
Expenditure for food and fuel increased. Most commonly, HH ate less
preferred food and reduced the amount of food
eaten and number of meals
(Continued)
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Urban
Impacts on food consumption
TABLE 2
Continued
Country (period
of assessment)
Coverage
Extent of price increases
Impacts on food consumption
Liberia (June–July 2008)
National
Double-digit and increasing inflation
(13.4% in 2008)
Uganda (May 2008)
National
A 10% increase of all food prices results in
5.5% decline in HH purchasing power
All livelihood groups ate less preferred food, substituting cassava for rice
HH spent more on food commodities (50–86%) and less on higher
quality food commodities, in particular protein sources, and
vegetables in urban areas
Increased rate of severely food-insecure HH in poor neighborhoods from
4% in December 2006 to 8% in June 2008 in urban areas
Decrease of the proportion of people with good food consumption from
64 to 40% in urban areas
About 50% of food needs covered by own production
Large declines in HH income led to small reductions in diet diversity
Latin America
El Salvador (May 2008)
National
Guatemala (May 2008)
Honduras (May 2008)
Nicaragua (May 2008)
National
National
National
Maize prices increased by 19%, sorghum by
31%, beans by 64%, and rice by 66%
(July 2007–July 2008)
Not available
Not available
Not available
Food consumption among the poorest families decreased
87% of poor HH reduced both the quality and quantity of their
food consumption
Food consumption among the poorest families reduced by 6%
Food consumption among the poorest families reduced by 8%
Food consumption among the poorest families reduced by up to 26%
1
The WFP and partners run pilots of market and food security
monitoring systems in Haiti, Nepal, and Niger, which yield FCS
from household surveys and price data (as collected in the
nearest market) (Table 3). We examined the correlation between
food prices and the FCS. The model links changes in FCS at
household level to changes in prices of food (both in logarithm)
and other variables:
ln FCSi ¼ a þ b ln Pricei þ
+
dk 1Iki þ
k2Rounds
þ + ml Zli þ ei
+
uj 1Iji
j2Zones
i ¼ 1:::n;
l2HH
where Price is the price of the main food staple (or an index)
experienced by each household, 1I are dummy variables for k
rounds and j zones, and Z is the household characteristics
available for each dataset. Ordinary least square estimates are
summarized in Table 4.
The 3 countries had negative elasticities ranging from 20.05
to 20.23. Thus, a 100% increase in food prices would result in a
reduction of the FCS of 5–23%, other factors held constant. This
is plausible but perhaps on the low side given the high share of
food in household expenditures, the size of income, and price
elasticities in developing countries (Table 5) and the evidence
that households first reduce the diet’s quality (see below).
It is important to note that the Niger data cover 7 mo in
2007, before the main price hikes, but show the importance of
seasonality in food access (3). The lean season in Niger (May to
September) is marked with high increases in food prices and
reduced diet quality.
Koumou and Subran (16) also found a substantial correlation
between high food prices and risk to food and nutrition
insecurity using FCS and household expenditures and consumption of less nutritious foodstuffs.
Global financial crisis
In early 2009, it was too early to have a full picture of the impact
of the global financial crisis on food consumption and nutrition.
The crisis is unfolding rapidly with negative information about
exports, employment, and growth appearing in news reports on
a nearly daily basis. Many economists expect that this will be the
longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression of the
1930s.
We employed a simple simulation to assess the potential
impact on food consumption. The simulations were based on the
following equation:
C ¼ Y × ey þ P × e p ;
where C = percentage change in energy consumption; Y =
percentage change in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita;
P = percentage change in real food prices; ey = price elasticity;
and ep = income elasticity. We estimated the number of people
falling below the minimum dietary energy consumption based
on the assumption that energy consumption follows a lognormal distribution, which is defined by the mean and CV. The
CV is assumed to remain constant.
Average and minimum required energy consumption are
from FAO. Elasticities are unweighted regional averages based
on national estimates from the USDA, Economic Research
Service. Price changes are based on the FAO Food Price Index,
deflated by the consumer price index for the United States. Food
prices are assumed to decline by 7% in 2009 and by 2.5% in
2010, which is in line with several major forecasts. The
consumer price index forecast for 2009 and 2010 are from
(17). Global food prices are assumed to prevail at the regional
levels as well, which are in line with, or even at the lower end of,
actual increases for regions (Table 1). Changes in GDP per capita
are based on taking the pessimistic forecast for 2009 from (18)
and assuming that percentage point change in growth in 2009 is
continuing in 2010, which is a very pessimistic scenario.
The results show that nearly all developing regions would
suffer from a decline in energy consumption between 2005 and
2010, potentially causing an additional 450 million people to
become hungry, as a result of high food prices and poor growth
High food prices, financial crisis, food, and nutrition
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Source: WFP assessments (38).
HH, Household.
3
1 kcal = 4.184 kJ.
2
TABLE 3
Country
Haiti
Nepal
Niger
1
2
Food security monitoring characteristics1
Dates and rounds
HH and zoning
2
Price variable
Comments on the modeling
January, June,
and September 2006
January, June, and
September 2007
February 2008
July–September 2008
October–December 2008
517 HH in 5 villages (Acul Samedi,
Ferrier, Beau Roc, Grison
Garde, and Dupity)
Rice
Village effects were not significant certainly
due to good market integration. Coping
Strategy Index was used to capture
main HH characteristics.
600 HH in 3 zones (Mountains,
Terai, and Hill districts)
Weighted commodity
index
June, August, November,
and December 2007
4376 HH in 357 villages
Millet
No round dummy (2 rounds only).
Wealth groups determined by:
ownership of assets (financial, human,
HH, and agricultural).
Agroecological zones are pastoral, agricultural,
and agropastoral. Ownership of livestock and
food stocks was used as a wealth proxy.
Source: WFP and WFP/Nepal Development Research Institute, 2008.
HH, Household.
increasing susceptibility to infections, micronutrient deficiencies
slow cognitive development and growth, contributing to poorer
school performance and reduced work productivity. Infections,
including diarrhea, increase nutrient losses and reduce appetite,
thus further aggravating micronutrient deficiencies (2,20).
When households also reduce the size or number of meals,
they will likely suffer deficiencies in macronutrients and energy,
which leads to thinness among adolescents and adults, child
TABLE 4
Regression results: food prices have a negative effect
on the diversity and frequency of food consumption
Impact on nutrition
Child malnutrition is a major underlying cause of mortality
worldwide, accounting for an estimated 2.2 million under-5
child deaths annually (20). For example, in southeast Asia,
multiple micronutrient deficiencies and chronic malnutrition
occur in roughly one-third to one-half of preschool children.
Although the Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for a
reduction in under-5 child mortality by two-thirds between 1990
and 2015 and Goal 1 for a 50% reduction of underweight,
higher food prices threaten to undo much of the progress made
toward achieving these goals.
As discussed above, households reduce both dietary diversity
as well as energy intake in response to increased food prices and
reduced income. First, the consumption of more expensive food
items is reduced, followed by a reduction of the size and
frequency of meals. Within families, adults (particularly women)
may prioritize their children’s food consumption over their own
(21). The larger the proportion of total expenditure that was
already spent on food, the greater the implications of food price
and affordability changes on consumption and nutritional
status.
The decreased purchase of more expensive foods typically
equates to consumption of fewer nutrient-dense foods, such as
animal source foods (meat, poultry, eggs, fish, milk), fruits, and
vegetables. When the “savings” brought about by this coping
strategy are insufficient, households may also reduce expenditure on basic foods, such as sugar, oil, salt, and staples. Hence,
the intake of specific nutrients, in particular micronutrients, is
reduced before energy intake is reduced. This causes increased
prevalence and severity of micronutrient deficiencies (22–25).
Deterioration in micronutrient status and health may progress rapidly as food consumption changes. In addition to
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Intercept
Prices
Rounds
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Round 4
Round 5
Round 6
Round 7
Zones
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
HH2 characteristics
Female head of HH
Children in HH, n
Elderly in HH, n
No food stocks
Yes livestock
No land
Coping strategy index
Model fitting
R2
Observations, n
Haiti
Nepal
Niger
2.90***1
20.23**
4.09***
20.05*
NA
4.13***
20.08***
20.01***
0.01***
0.04***
Reference
—
—
—
Reference
0.08**
0.08**
0.18***
0.21***
0.21***
20.45 NS
NI
Reference
20.32***
20.19***
Reference
20.19***
20.07***
NA
NI
NI
NI
NA
NA
20.01***
20.10*
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.19***
NI
NA
NA
NA
0.18***
0.22***
NA
NA
0.2
517
0.12
651
0.16
4376
1
*Significant at 10%, ** at 5%, *** at 1%. NS, Not significant; NA, not available; NI,
variables not included in the final model after standard model selection procedures,
including significance of coefficients and overall quality of the model. Reference is the
modality chosen as a reference for estimation purposes. For Nepal, only extreme poor,
poor, urban poor, and lower-middle income households were included.
2
HH, Household.
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in GDP per capita (Table 5). East Asia is the exception because of
high GDP growth compensating for high food prices. This is in
addition to the 848 million people being undernourished in
2003–2005.
These numbers should be interpreted with caution. They do
not pertain to actual changes. They do not incorporate the
effects of coping strategies. Moreover, we know from various
studies (9,19) that households first reduce the quality of food
intake before they reduce the quantity of calories. Therefore, the
numbers reflect a potential, perhaps maximum, risk.
TABLE 5
Projected changes in food consumption by region of the developing world as a result of changes in food prices
and incomes, 2006–20101
Country
Africa
East Asia
South Asia
Western Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
Developing world
1
Price
elasticity
of demand
for food
Income
elasticity
of demand
for food
Real food
price increase
2006–2010
GDP per
capita growth
2006–2010
Food consumption
change as result
of price and
income changes, %
2006–2010
20.56
20.48
20.57
20.48
20.48
0.69
0.59
0.70
0.59
0.58
37
37
37
37
37
21
32
21
4
4
221.3
1.0
26.8
215.4
215.7
Population,
millions
2005
Additional
hungry
population,
millions
2006–2010
769
1395
1562
195
541
4463
239
0
111
21
87
457
Source: Authors’ calculation (see details in text).
able for targeted populations, and provide social protection to
vulnerable populations (6,32). In addition to short-term nutritional support to young children, which requires special highly
nutritious commodities that can complement the daily diet (26),
efforts to prevent malnutrition also need to be aimed at pregnant
women and mothers, enabling them to adequately feed and care
for their children, i.e. exclusive breast-feeding for the first 6 mo
of life followed by appropriate complementary feeding.
Potential interventions encompass a range of tools, including
market-based and nonmarket–based interventions. Because each
setting will experience different effects of food price increases
and have different resources to respond, planners must account
for contextual factors when deciding upon which interventions
to utilize. Irrespective of whether the modality consists of food
assistance or conditional cash transfer programs augmented
with vouchers, or a creative combination of the 2, adequate
access to micronutrients should be assured (33). Future work
should involve the establishment of effective surveillance
systems to monitor changes in the vulnerability and food
security of populations over time.
Investments in nutrition are among the most cost-effective
interventions, which not only affects the individual but also the
growth prospects of the country because of the high cost of
hunger (34) and the high benefit:cost ratios (35).
Acknowledgments
We thank Farzad Kapadia for excellent research assistance,
WFP’s staff members specifically, Siemon Hollema, Koffi
Akakpo, Vivien Knips, and Jean-Carel Norceide for assistance
with the data and Jan Delbaere for running the original
regression for Niger. The views expressed in this article do not
necessarily represent the official position of the institutions the
authors are associated with. The authors are solely responsible
of any errors or omissions. H.J.B. conceptualized the paper; H.
J.B. wrote the paper, based on inputs of S.d.P., I.S., and L.S.; S.
d.P. I.S., L.S., and M.W.B. thoroughly reviewed and made
suggestions for revisions of the paper. All authors read and
approved the final manuscript.
Other articles in this supplement include (39–52).
Conclusion
Early childhood is a window of opportunity for shaping a
generation’s future health, and earning potential (2,20). The
temporary nature of this window suggests that even short-term
price rises will have long-term effects if unmitigated. Various
instruments exist, with varying degrees of efficiency and
effectiveness, to stabilize food prices, make food more afford-
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