This project is being funded through the Focus Area Program, which enables WRF
to solve broadly relevant subscriber issues and challenges with a targeted,
sustained research effort. The program is developed around research Focus Areas:
a topic area that is of high interest and priority to WRF subscribers because of a
challenge or opportunity that is present, emerging, or anticipated, and for which
research will help subscribers manage and address the challenge or optimize the
opportunity. A focus area includes a discrete challenge or opportunity statement,
measurable objectives, and one or more projects that will lead to applied solutions
and benefits for WRF subscribers within a specified, relevant time frame.
FOCUS AREA RFP 4558
This project is funded under the focus area titled, (Water Demand: Improving the
Effectiveness of Forecasts and Management) and is intended to support the focus
area objective(s):
Explore the role of uncertainty within water demand forecasting methods and
how knowledge of such uncertainty can be incorporated into planning activities.
Uncertainty in Long Term Water Demand Forecasting (RFP 4558)
Project Objective
Prepare a comprehensive summary of the uncertainties related to forecasting long term water
demand for water resource and infrastructure planning. Identify and describe the range of
uncertainties utilities face in long term water demand forecasting and present leading
strategies to manage them.
Budget
Proposals may request WRF funds in the range of $70,000 - $100,000. WRF funds requested
and total project value will be a criteria considered in the proposal selection process.
Background
A sustainable water resource strategy must be supported by accurate demand forecasts, at a
variety of time steps, that provide a simulated and reliable view, though rarely perfect, of the
future. Often, demand forecasts assume current patterns of use will be extended into the
future, however, over the last 10-15 years residential water use patterns have changed, in part
due the increased prevalence of more efficient clothes washers and toilets. Another example is
Seattle Public Utilities’ modified forecasts over time (Beecher 2010 1, see Figure 2) due to a
better understanding of the impact of system operations improvements, conservation
programs, plumbing codes and rates. Forecasts of demands that include future water use
estimates cannot simply extend old patterns but must consider the uncertainties of the future.
These demand forecasts can contribute to identifying appropriate management alternatives in
balancing supply and demand. However, numerous factors such as climatic 2, demographic,
1
Beecher, J. 2010. The Conservation Conundrum. Journal AWWA 102:2.
2
Kiefer, J., J. Clayton, B. Dziegielewski, and J. Henderson. 2013. Changes in Water Use Under Regional Climate Change
Scenarios. Denver, CO: Water Research Foundation. Accessed at http://www.waterrf.org/Pages/Projects.aspx?PID=4263 or
http://www.advancesinwaterresearch.org/awr/20130709#pg1
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utilized without permission.
legislative, socio-economics factors make demand forecasting a challenge for water utilities
because of uncertainty associated with each one of these factors. Demand forecasts that
account for and mitigate these uncertainties can contribute to the development of appropriate
demand management alternatives that balance supply and demand.
Water demand models can be accomplished in a variety of time steps: long (twenty to forty
years), medium (five to 20 years), short (one to three years), or very short term (hourly, daily,
or weekly). This project focuses on uncertainty in long term water demand forecasting which
will have more elements of higher uncertainty due to the prolonged time scale. Long term
forecasting in this project is defined as the time frame required to plan for infrastructure or
water resources. Water supply planning is based on projected average annual demand and
infrastructure planning is based on projected peak day demands. Uncertainty can be
categorized as statistical (random or aleatory) or systematic (epistemic or bias), and the
forecaster’s goal is to realistically minimize the systematic uncertainty.
This project will identify and explore the trends and elements that create uncertainty in long
term water demand forecasting and present leading methods for managing these elements of
uncertainty to assure responsible future water resources and infrastructure investments.
Research Approach
Task 1: Prepare materials that review and summarize existing literature and utility practices
about identifying and managing statistical uncertainty specific to long term water demand
forecasting for planning water resources and infrastructure. Possible methods include
performing a literature review and/or survey of utilities. Note: utility input will be required in
the workshop. This review should include the following points:
• Identify concepts that utilities should be aware of such as, explain the definition of
uncertainty and sources in water demand forecasting.
• Identify trends and elements that create uncertainty in water demand forecasting.
Discuss if current or future water use trends should be used for long term demand
forecasting. Both average annual demand and peak day (demands and peaking factors)
should be considered. At a minimum, the research should consider the following
factors: population (growth and decline), climate (including climate change), fixture and
appliance technology (for example decreased residential water use), land use (changes
and densification), financial (for example rate structures, recovery of fixed costs, debt
coverage), socio-economic, customer behavior, supply availability (water scarcity,
drought, etc.), and legislation/regulations.
• Discuss methods of estimating and managing water demand forecasting uncertainty.
Identify emerging planning paradigms and approaches in financial, infrastructure, and
resource planning that work well under conditions of high uncertainty, including but not
limited to non-probabilistic risk, robust, worst case, no regrets and scenario analysis,
incremental decision making over extended time periods, and flexible and incremental
implementation strategies. Determine if utilities manage their risk or uncertainty with
some specifics about uncertainty for example have they calculated a certain amount of
© 2014, Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this content may be copied, reproduced or otherwise
utilized without permission.
uncertainty for specific factors or predictions, do they have general ranges or rules of
thumb, etc. Discuss the barriers and benefits to including uncertainty in utility planning
for infrastructure and water resources.
Expected outcome of Task 1– An initial summary paper.
Task 2: Convene a workshop with key water utility professionals and researchers to add utility
input to the Task 1 initial summary paper.
• Workshop participants will be comprised of leaders in demand forecasting and water
resource and infrastructure planning and will represent water utilities, research and
academic organizations. The proposal should discuss how the workshop participants will
be selected.
• The workshop materials, including the summary developed in Task 1, will provide a
foundation for workshop participants and will also be included as part of the final
report. The proposal should also include details on proposed workshop format, agenda,
and facilitation plan that will engage all participants to actively contribute their
knowledge and be incorporated into the final report. The proposal should describe how
the workshop participants will be prepared for participating meaningfully in the
workshop, such as an advance webinar to present the Task 1 summary paper and
expectations of workshop involvement (for example, will participants be required to
provide some data or a presentation at the workshop?).
• Costs of travel for workshop participants must be reimbursed using the project funding.
Coordinating travel and reimbursement for workshop participants should be described
in the proposal.
Expected outcome of Task 2 – A heavily revised Task 1 summary paper and additional workshop
materials.
Task 3: A practical and usable Final Report that documents the research and communicates the
results clearly. The final report should include use of images, info graphics, figures and tables,
etc. to convey the results visually. Creative and effective communication pieces that summarize
and enhance project findings are expected. See some suggested pieces in the Communication
Strategies and Products for Water Research Foundation Projects.
Proposal Preparation Instructions
Proposals submitted in response to this RFP must be prepared in accordance with the WRF
document “Guidelines for Focus Area Program Proposals.” The most current version of these
guidelines is available at http://www.waterrf.org/funding/Pages/proposal-guidelines.aspx . The
guidelines contain instructions for the technical aspects, financial statements and
administrative requirements that the applicant must follow when preparing a proposal.
© 2014, Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this content may be copied, reproduced or otherwise
utilized without permission.
Eligibility to Submit Proposals
This RFP solicits proposals from all technically qualified U.S. based or non-U.S. based applicants,
including educational institutions, research organizations, federal or state agencies, local
municipalities, and consultants or other for-profit entities.
WRF’s Board of Trustees has established a Timeliness Policy that addresses researcher
adherence to project schedule. The policy can be reviewed
at http://www.waterrf.org/funding/Pages/policies.aspx. Researchers who are late on any
ongoing WRF-sponsored studies without an approved no-cost extension are not eligible to be a
named participant in any proposal. If you have any questions about your eligibility for WRF
projects, please contact the WRF Research Manager listed at the bottom of the RFP directly.
Budget and Funding Information
The funding available from WRF is $70,000 - $100,000. A minimum 25 percent of the total
project value must be contributed by the applicant (i.e. the applicant’s minimum contribution
must equal one-third of WRF funds requested). Acceptable forms of applicant contribution
include cost-share, applicant in-kind or third-party in-kind that meet Code of Federal Regulation
(CFR) requirements in 2 CFR Part 215.23, or the requirements of Office of Management and
Budget (OMB) Circular A-102.24. The applicant may elect to contribute more than 25 percent to
the project but the maximum WRF funding available remains fixed at $100,000. Proposals that
request less than $100,000 from WRF need only contribute 25 percent of the total project
value.
Administrative, Cost and Audit Standards
WRF’s standards for administrative, cost and audit compliance are based upon and comply with
the proposer’s applicable US Federal Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles and Audit
Requirements for Federal Financial Assistance. These standards are referenced in the WRF’s
“Guidelines for Focus Area Program Proposals” and include specific guidelines outlining the
requirements for Indirect Cost Negotiation Agreements, Financial Statements and the
Statement of Direct Labor, Fringe Benefits and General Overhead. Inclusion of indirect costs
must be substantiated by a negotiated agreement or appropriate Statement of Direct Labor,
Fringe Benefits and General Overhead. Well in advance of preparing the proposal, your
financial staff should review the detailed instructions included in WRF’s annually released
“Guidelines for Focus Area Program Proposals.”
Period of Performance
The proposed project schedule should be realistic, allowing ample time for the preparation of
final reports and for review of project results. It is WRF’s policy to negotiate a reasonable
schedule for each research project. Once this schedule is established, WRF and its contractors
have a responsibility to adhere to the agreed-upon schedule. Under WRF’s No-Cost Extension
© 2014, Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this content may be copied, reproduced or otherwise
utilized without permission.
Policy, a project schedule cannot be extended more than nine months beyond the original
contracted schedule, regardless of the number of extensions granted. The policy can be
reviewed at http://www.waterrf.org/funding/Pages/policies.aspx.
Utility Participation
WRF is especially interested in receiving proposals which include both participation and
contribution of resources from water utilities in the research effort. Information on utilities that
have indicated an interest in participating in this research project is attached. While WRF makes
utility participation volunteers known to applicants, it is the applicant’s responsibility to
negotiate utility participation in their particular proposal, and the utilities are under no
obligation to participate.
Application Procedure and Deadline
Proposals are now being accepted exclusively online in PDF only format and must be fully
submitted before May 15, 2014, 5pm Mountain Time. All the forms and components of the
proposal are available online in the “Proposal Component Packet” zip file. A login is required to
download this packet and use the proposal website. This information is available at
https://proposals.waterrf.org/Pages/RFPs.aspx
The online proposal system allows submission of your documents until the date and time stated
in the RFP. To avoid the risk of the system closing before you press the submit button, do not
wait until the last minute to complete your submission.
Questions to clarify the intent of this Request for Proposals may be addressed to the Research
Manager, Maureen Hodgins, at (303)734-3465 or by e-mail at [email protected].
© 2014, Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this content may be copied, reproduced or otherwise
utilized without permission.
4558 UTILITY VOLUNTEERS
The following utilities have indicated an interest in possible participation in this research. This
information is updated within 24 business hours when a utility submits a volunteer form and
this RFP will be re-posted with the new information. (Depending upon your settings, you may
need to click refresh on your browser to load the latest file.)
William Zimmerman
Economist
Tacoma Public Utilities
3628 South 35th Street
Tacoma, WA 98409
USA
(253)502-8974
[email protected]
Mike Fahy
Grant Mgr.
El Paso Water Utilities
1154 Hawkins
El Paso, Texas 79925
USA
(915)594-5661
[email protected]
Sandra Rode
Water Conservation Specialist
City of Goodyear
P. O. Box 5100
Goodyear, AZ 85338
USA
(623)882-7509
[email protected]
G. Hossein Parandvash
Principal Economist
Portland Water Bureau
1120 SW 5th Ave.
Portland, OR 97204
USA
(503)823-5350
[email protected]
David Marshall
Engineering Services Director
Tarrant Regional Water District
800 East northside Drive
Fort Worth, Texas 76102
USA
(817)720-4250
[email protected]
© 2014, Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this content may be copied, reproduced or otherwise
utilized without permission.