Infrastructure Debt Incremental value and diversification for fixed income allocations Q2 2014 Fixed income allocations are expected to diversify away from high risks while reliably delivering cash returns and preserving capital. Today globally, market conditions mean this expectation is challenged as low and potentially increasing rates combined with growing demand to affect returns and volatility. In response fixed income investors are looking to private and illiquid debt strategies to deliver value and diversification. Infrastructure debt is an established and global private asset class that can be a unique alternative for long term and investment grade bonds as well as offering shorter tenor or higher risk-return portfolio alternatives. We explore this further in this paper. Executive Summary Challenges for Fixed Income Allocations Infrastructure Debt’s Role US public pension plans fixed income allocations highlight Infrastructure debt as a private debt strategy has grown the challenges today. significantly. Initially led by Australian, Canadian and European pension funds and US insurers via their private US Public Plan Allocation and Performance 77% 10.7% All Other Assets 77% 6.3% 23% All Other Assets 23% 2011 2012 Fixed Income Assets placement allocations. Today a wider and global group of fixed income investors are realising infrastructure debt’s 78% value and appeal within fixed income allocations. All Other Assets The Credit Spread Premium Infra High Range +200bps Infra Low Range 22% 0.4% 2013 Fixed Income Returns Source: Hastings 2014, average of 10 large US public pension While portfolio managers may have out-performed +100bps +175bps IG Infra Debt +325bps +135bps BBB Bonds Sub-IG Infra Debt +258bps BB Bonds Source: Barclays, Hastings, 2014 Barclays US Aggregate’s -2% p.a. for 2013 – earning a barely positive return from 20-25% of a portfolio warrants Infrastructure debt’s long term floating rate assets can concern. This may be the new outlook for fixed income assist in addressing rising rates without sub-investment investors facing low and potentially rising rates coupled grade risks of other loan strategies. Additionally the with increasing competition for traditional bonds. variety and return premium relative to traditional bonds offer valuable diversification to fixed income portfolios. Hastings: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT CDIC INSURED • NO BANK GUARANTEE • MAY LOSE VALUE Infrastructure Debt – A Fixed-Income Alternative | 1 issued by governments, financial institutions and high grade corporates. During periods of higher underlying rates there was little risk to achieve a c. 5% p.a. return.1 Annual Issuance (US$ bn) been high quality A to AAA rated bonds 2,000 12,500 10,000 1,500 7,500 1,000 5,000 500 2,500 0 0 Outstanding Issuance (US$ bn) US Non-Govt Corporate Bonds Fixed income investments have traditionally 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Today it is a different story. Risks are Asset-Backed Corporate Debt Outstanding Issuance generally higher and returns tend to be Source: SIFMA, March 2014 lower. This is a catalyst for investors to evolve their fixed income strategies in order In Q1 2014 US leverage loan and high yield bond markets to achieve their goals. saw lower volumes than Q1 2013 while investment grade was up slightly.2 In Europe volumes have more generally Historically fixed income total returns have benefited grown as the capital markets develop from a lower base from reducing interest rates, while cash coupons have relative to the US market. declined. Demand for fixed income on the other hand looks to As underlying interest rates increase, the head-winds to maintain its growth trajectory. Again, this is illustrated total returns that started in late 2013 with the on-set of by US pension funds - with c. US$20 trillion of assets3 tapering may become more prevalent. their influence is significant in local and global markets. US Corp Credit Returns (% pa) 15.0% US Pension Investment Flows 200 150 10.0% 5.0% 0 2013Q1 2012Q1 -50 -100 2011Q1 0.0% 50 2010Q1 USD billion 100 -150 -5.0% Jan 14 Oct 13 Jul 13 Apr 13 Jan 13 Oct 12 Jul 12 Apr 12 Jan 12 Oct 11 Jul 11 Apr 11 Jan 11 12-mth rolling Total Return -200 -250 Cash YTW -300 Source: Barclays, US Corporate Credit Returns, 2014 While cash coupons from bonds may edge higher from c. 1 Bonds (ex Treasuries) Equities Source: Federal Reserve Statistical Release, March 2014 In the second half of 2013 pension funds de-risked by 3% p.a. today , the resulting decline in prices will likely rotating out of public equities and into bonds. US Federal lead to lower, even negative total returns. Reserve data on investment flows showed US pensions Supply of corporate bonds returned to record levels in 2012-2013. Stoked by investor demand and historically switched from adding c. US$90 billion of supply to c. US$70 billion of demand during 2013.4 low interest rates, we saw borrowers taking the This raises a concern that supply in traditional markets opportunity to lock in low cost and often long term debt. may not keep pace with investor demand unless the rate of business investment increases to create new supply. 2 3 1 Barclays, March 2014 Hastings: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. 4 Thomson Reuters, Barclays, March 2014. Towers Watson, Global Pension Assets Study, 2014 Federal Reserve Statistical Release, March 2014 Infrastructure Debt – A Fixed-Income Alternative | 2 This “de-risking” of pension funds is a growing trend. It is often discussed as a reaction to unfunded liabilities declining, while changing demographics of plan Access to attractive supply of investments Low returns and rising interest rates beneficiaries may also create a preference for low risk Low returns affect markets in many different ways. Asset cash returning assets. This trend is creating greater value inflation and increased risk appetite are some of interest in liability driven investing strategies, similar to the consequences. A common reaction for fixed income those adopted by life insurance asset managers. investors has been to increase credit and duration risks. Insurers are a large participant in fixed income markets The increase in risk is most evident via the demand for globally. These investors are typically largely credit “junk” bonds and other sub-investment grade credit investors with 60-80% invested in traditional fixed income assets such as Term Loan B and Leverage Loan issuances. assets and only c.10% in equities. This is quite different However these widely accessible markets have their own to pension allocation strategies. credit and market risks. An example is US high yield bonds with an average B credit rating. Credit spreads are 100% US Insurance and Pension Asset Allocation 80% Other around +320bps relative to longer term averages of +750bps over underlying interest rates.5 This means investors seeking 5% returns in fixed income are investing in “junk” B-rated assets.6 Once, the same 60% 40% 20% Equities return from the highest quality A to AAA rated bonds. Fixed Income Increasing duration also has its pros and cons. The pro is increasing coupons by exposure to higher long term 0% Insurance Pension Source: OECDStats (insurance 2012), Towers Watson (pension 2013). interest rates. The con is higher duration risk that means greater exposure to total return losses as rates increase. The driver of insurance portfolio allocation preferences The rule-of-thumb is a 1% increase in rates results in a 1% is a disciplined approach to asset-liability management decline in price for each year of tenor.7 Applying this that aims to mitigate investment performance risks. This rule and assuming a 2% rate increase over 4 years, we approach is widely supported by insurers and their calculate the cumulative total returns across short (5 regulators via regulatory capital charges that require year), medium (10 year) and long (30 year) tenor varying levels of capital to be reserved against certain investments as shown below. This is purely illustrative asset types. but offers one of many varying perspectives. As markets The growing demand for credit investments from large institutional investors adds a technical dimension as continue to evolve the only certainty in our depiction above is that it is unlikely to eventuate as modelled! surplus demand bids up prices and returns down. 5.0% Total Return (% pa) Faced with low returns and growing demand, fixed income investors are having to more keenly balance risk and return. 1.75% 2.75% 3.50% 1.0% -1.0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Increasingly investors are creating or Investment Tenor (years) -3.0% expanding private debt allocations to provide flexibility in managing these challenges. Short Term (5 years) Medium Term (10 years) -5.0% Long Term (30 years) -7.0% Fixed income investors face two obvious challenges: 3.0% Illustrative Total Return Source: Hastings, 2014 5 low returns coupled with rising interest rates Hastings: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Barclays Esoteric Credit Weekly, February 2013, March 2014 6 Barclays, March 2014 7 Merill Edge, August 2013 Infrastructure Debt – A Fixed-Income Alternative | 3 Rising rates may be a shorter term issue as rate increases are widely expected to stabilize over the next few years as the influences of monetary policies subside and economic factors regain a more normal influence. A related issue of low returns and rising rates is that We believe infrastructure debt’s return, risk and diversity characteristics make it attractive to fixed income allocations. Fixed income allocations are typically certain fixed income assets may become inherently tailored to public and externally rated bond illiquid if realising the mark-to-market losses is strategies. Infrastructure debt may not be unpalatable for the investor. perfect fit within these existing allocations. This poses the question of whether there are assets that However, not being a neat fit is the value offer better value, such as an illiquidity premium found infrastructure debt can offer as an excellent in private debt assets. diversifier as part of a fixed income portfolio. Access to attractive supply of investments We see infrastructure debt as an appealing alternative Access to supply to meet investment budgets and return objectives is another fundamental issue. for fixed income investors. Our view is echoed by the growing demand out of established private placement debt investors in North America and the wave of Supply is being squeezed as demand increases from a mandates issued by European insurance and pension range of factors including de-risking and the growing investors. trend of liability driven investment strategies. A common theme of these investors is complementing This is showing up in declining credit spreads across their existing fixed income portfolios not only with traditional bond markets where corporate credit margins attractive returns, but also much needed diversity. This are once again below 100bps in Europe and the US.8 value includes: A related challenge is that supply and demand imbalances can lead to bubbles as investors are less influenced by fundamentals of risk and return. Fixed income investors are looking for more options to manage the challenges if they are to avoid the concerns associated with chasing yield. “When Does a Bubble Spell Trouble” Wall Street Journal, January 2014. A return premium for illiquidity The option to select fixed or floating rates Diversity of supply, risk and return A credit risk consistent with existing bonds Illiquidity Premium The scale of fixed income allocations mean liquidity may not be needed for all assets. This has long been accepted by investors in the life insurance sector. “Fitch warns on leveraged finance defaults” Financial Times, February 2014. “Sellside warns on high junk bond valuations” Financial Times, April 2014. The fact that some assets may also be inherently illiquid due to realisation of mark-to-market losses creates an additional focus on the value of liquidity. This means that where there is an ability to accept some level of illiquid assets the value of infrastructure debt may enhance portfolio returns and increase diversity without materially increasing portfolio risks. 8 Barclays Esoteric Trading Weekly, March 2014 Hastings: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Infrastructure Debt – A Fixed-Income Alternative | 4 indexation of their liabilities. For floating rate loans the relationship with indexed liabilities is not direct. 1.40% 400 0.90% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% All Corp Bonds Utility Bonds BBB Bonds Source: Barclays, Hastings, 2014. In a low risk-return asset class a potential credit spread Cumulative US Returns CPI vs LIBOR 350 Inedx (Jan 2005 = 100) 1.00% 1.24% 1.20% 1.39% IG Infra Debt Spread to Bond 1.60% Infra Debt's Illiquidity Premium 300 250 200 150 CPI - All Urban (seasonally adjusted) 100 6-Mth LIBOR 50 premium up to c. 140bps for an equivalent credit risk is attractive. Perhaps the biggest challenge faced by an investor is to realise this potential premium via an Source: St Louis Fed (FRED) for LIBOR, and Burea for Labor Statistics internal team or an external manager. The general principle is interest rates outperformed The internal costs of establishing a team with capability inflation. However, recently the principle and historical to originate, structure, negotiate and internally rate and trends are no guarantee of a future relationship. manage assets like infrastructure debt can be prohibitively expensive relative to the premium. The Diversity scale needed to absorb the costs can be beyond the Diversity is a valuable and rare attribute to reduce foreseeable investment appetite for many investors. portfolio volatility while achieving sustainable long term returns across various market cycles. Similarly, an external management strategy needs to be cognisant of size of the premium available and recognise One of the strengths of private debt is diversity. the majority of this should be delivered to the end client Infrastructure debt offers a strong range of diversity on a net of fees basis. This means infrastructure debt is relative to real estate and middle-market strategies. less of a private equity fee model business, and more one Infrastructure’s relationship to wider economic or market that is based on relationships and value realised over the trends is less likely because of its high barriers to entry, longer term. fundamental need and often subject to availability based or regulated revenue streams. Option for fixed or floating Opting for floating rate investments can assist in Consistent Credit Risk addressing the issue of total return losses in a rising When investing at the low end of the investment grade interest rate environment. risk there is often a preference for assets with more stable credit profile. Fixed rate investments are also available and widely available globally for infrastructure debt. Infrastructure debt’s largely investment grade and declining risk profile over time, coupled with lower Index linked and to a lesser extent floating rates can volatility relative to corporate bonds leads us to offer certain investors some level of mitigation to the conclude infrastructure debt is ideally suited to lower investment grade risk appetite. Hastings: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Infrastructure Debt – A Fixed-Income Alternative | 5 Perhaps more fundamentally, returns consistent with junk bonds and widely available loan can be achieved from assets with a materially lower credit risk profile. Our conclusion is relatively simple. Fixed income allocations and strategies have generally done well in navigating the current market environment. However, there is merit in considering new investment markets and understanding how these new investments may offer incremental value to the existing and evolving allocations and strategies within the fixed income asset class. Infrastructure debt can be a sensible addition within a fixed income allocation that offers value and diversification. The long and proven track record, global supply, fixed and floating rates, premium to comparable bonds, and low risk profile are the primary attributes that deliver infrastructure debt’s value. The diversity and the scale of debt issuance is highlighted by global opportunities tracked by Hastings as of April 2014. C$4bn £7bn €23bn US$31bn A$25bn Hastings: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Infrastructure Debt – A Fixed-Income Alternative | 6 Appendix : What is Infrastructure debt Illustrative Global Opportunites Infrastructure is a tangible asset that meets a 4% fundamental and long term economic and 26% social need. These characteristics underpin a 35% robust and stable long term credit risk profile USD EUR GBP AUD Other that typically ranges from BB to A. 8% Infrastructure debt is a large, global and 27% consistent private debt solution that may offer a unique combination of return premium, lower risk and diversity relative to traditional fixed income investments. Source: Hastings, 2014 The largest and most consistent opportunity is senior debt. This can be divided into two sub-sets: The following is a brief recap of what infrastructure debt Investment grade: mature project financings to single-asset/business corporate is. Infrastructure debt is largely a private senior debt Sub-investment grade: largely project financings or sectors with higher levels of market risks opportunity. The market offers c. US$70 billion of investments each year. The assets range from fixed to Senior debt has a robust track record across both the floating rate, typically BB to A rated credit profiles sub-investment and investment grades over 30 years that across various currencies. This offers a range of we and others9 characterise as: investment solutions to investors. Infrastructure has the lowest default probability of its peers and a recovery rate that ranges from 80-100% on average. Lower credit risk than other sectors Decreasing credit risk over time Higher recoveries at 80% if a default occurs, Average Default Rate - Project Finance with the most likely ultimate recovery being 30.00% 100% 20.00% financial corporate credit investments. 10.00% 0.00% Lower volatility of credit quality relative to non- For this risk profile, current market credit spreads can offer a potentially attractive 50 to 125bps premium relative to comparable public bonds. Source: Moodys, 2014. Infrastructure debt investments can be broadly categorised as senior and junior debt. Our global pipeline of opportunities highlights the scale of the opportunity and diversity available across the various key markets. Our pipeline at any point in time sees between US$70100bn of investment opportunities: In addition to the return premium, the higher recoveries, lower volatility of credit quality and diversity relative to public bonds can be additional sources of value. This combination is our basis for stating infrastructure debt offers attractive absolute and risk-adjusted returns. Junior infrastructure debt represents another, albeit smaller opportunity that we participate in globally. 9 Hastings: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Moodys, Default and Recovery Rates for Project Finance Bank Loans, 1983-2012, March 2014. Infrastructure Debt – A Fixed-Income Alternative | 7 Junior debt is opportunistic because it is not normally a permanent feature of an infrastructure asset’s capital structure. Infrastructure’s low risk profile limits the role for junior debt between senior debt and equity. Under normal market conditions there can be ample senior debt and equity appetite to fill any void in the capital structure. The spike in junior infrastructure debt issuance leading up to and following the Global Financial Crisis is an Issuance (USD million) 150,000 North America and Europe Junior Senior Junior (%) 20% 15% 100,000 10% 50,000 5% 0 Junior Issuance (% of total) example of its opportunistic nature. 0% Source: Thomson Reuters, Deal Scan, 2013 For more detail related to infrastructure debt please reach out to our global team or refer to a copy of our earlier paper10. 10 The Global Infrastructure Debt Opportunity, Hastings, 2013. Hastings: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Infrastructure Debt – A Fixed-Income Alternative | 8 If you would like to discuss the contents of this paper, or understand the global infrastructure debt opportunities in more detail, please contact our global team: 55 Market Street Level 10 Sydney, NSW, Australia [email protected] 575 Fifth Avenue 39th Floor New York, NY, USA [email protected] +61 2 9287 8724 +1 212 551 1939 Steve Rankine Executive Director (Sydney) Nick Cleary Investment Director (New York) 50 St Mary Axe Level 2 London, EC3A, UK [email protected] 55 Market Street Level 10 Sydney, NSW, Australia [email protected] +44 20 7337 6724 Tim Cable Investment Director (London) +61 2 9287 8704 Ross Pritchard Investment Director (Sydney) 50 St Mary Axe Level 2 London, EC3A, UK [email protected] +44 20 3462 1347 Lisa Shaw Investment Director (London) Hastings Funds Management Limited Transforming global infrastructure investment opportunities to deliver long-term value Melbourne, London, New York, Sydney, Singapore www.hastingsinfra.com Hastings: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. 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