TheEconomist______________________________
CrackdowninKiev
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BattleforUkraine
Nov30th2013,11:21byA.O.|VILNIUS
THUGSandthievesalwaysprefertoactintheearlyhoursofthemorning.SodidViktorYanukovych,
Ukraine’spresident.
Lessthan24hoursafterheruinedtheEasternPartnershipsummitinVilniusandditchedtheAssociation
AgreementwithEurope,hevividlydemonstratedhispreferredalternative.Inthesmallhoursof
Saturdaymorninghesentinspecialtroopstobeatupthefewhundredstudentsandactivistswhostood
vigilforUkraine’sEuropeanfuture.Armedwithtruncheonsandteargas,thepolicepummelledthe
peacefuldemonstration,smashingheadsandkickingpeopleontheground.Neverinits22yearsasan
independentcountryhasUkraineseensuchviolence.
Itwasacowardlyandtreacherousactbyagovernmentthatbehavedlikeanoccupyingforceinitsown
capital.“TonightYankovychturnedintoAlexanderLukashenka[Belarus'shardlinepresident],”wrote
MustafaNayyem,aUkrainianjournalistandbloggerwhomobilisedthecivilprotestaweekago.
AvideohepostedshowedtheviolencethatMrYanukovychhadunleashed.
ProtestorsfirststartedtogatherinthecentreofKievtendaysagowhenUkrainefrozenegotiationswith
theEU.Thegovernmentdecidednottouseforceuntilafterthesummit.AssoonasMr
YanukovychescapedsafelyfromVilnius,therestraintswereoff.ButhoursafterMrYanukovych
deprivedhiscountryofachancetoconvergewithEurope,turningtoRussiainstead,tensofthousands
ofstudentsandmiddle-classUkrainianscameouttodefyhimwithrenewedresolve.
Thegovernment,fearfulthatthepolicewouldnotobeyitsorders,bussedinseveralthousandplainPage 1 of 3
clothedbull-neckthugsarmedwithironrodsfromtheregionstointimidatethestudentsandprovoke
clashes.MrYanukovych’sPartyoftheRegions'deputiestriedtoblocktheleadersoftheopposition
fromenteringatelevisionstudioandgoingonair.TheAmericanambassadorinKievissuedastern
warningtoMrYanukovychnottouseforceagainstthedemonstration.ButMrYanukovychwaited
until4am,whenthecrowdhaddispersedtojustafewhundredpeopleandmostjournalistshadgoneto
bed,toattackthosewhowerelefttoguardMaidanSquare.
ThiswashisresponsetoMaidan’sdemandtosendhimandhisgovernmentpackingforbetraying
nationalinterests.ButitwasalsohisrevengefortheOrangerevolution,whichtookplaceinthesame
squarenineyearsago,defyinghisattempttostealapresidentialelection.Atthetime,MrYanukovych
demandedthatLeonidKuchma,theactingpresident,sendinthetroopsagainstapeaceful
demonstrationofseveralhundredpeople.Bloodshedwasnarrowlyavoided,mainlybecauseofthe
interventionofseniorAmericangovernmentofficials,includingColinPowell,thesecretaryofstate.This
timeMrYanukovychfinallygothischancetoenactthatscenario.HehasplungedUkraineintooneofits
mostseriouspoliticalcrises,withunpredictableconsequences.
AlthoughMrYanukovychmaytrytoactlikeMrLukashenka,UkraineisnotBelarus.Ithasavibrant
middleclass,televisioniscontrolledbyoligarchs(manyofwhomareextremelyangrywithMr
Yanukovych)and,mostimportantly,adiversepopulation.AlthoughMrYanukovych,whosepopularity
ratingislessthan20%,isstillbackedbyhisnativeRussian-speakingindustrialregionofDonetsk,hehas
neverhadmuchlegitimacyintheUkrainian-speakingwestofthecountry.Hislatestactionscouldlead
toasplitinthecountry,withitswesternpartandKievsimplyrefusingtorecognisethegovernment's
authority.
ButUkraine’sturnaroundalsocaughttheEuropeanUnionflat-footed,whiledeliveringanothervictory
forVladimirPutin,whowantsUkrainetostaywithinRussia’ssphereofinfluenceasoneofits
formerterritories.TheEasternPartnershipproject,whichwasconceivedbySwedenandPolandinthe
Springof2008asanon-militaryformofengagingwiththeformerSovietrepublics,isnowin
tatters.ThreeyearsagoinGeorgia,RussiadrewaredlineagainstNATOexpansionanddefendeditwith
tanks.ThistimeitdrewasimilarlythickredlineattheexpansionoftheEuropeansystemofgovernance
anditsvaluestoUkraine,anddefendeditwithbribesandthreatsofeconomicwar.Europeanpoliticians
naivelybelievedthatRussiawouldnotobjecttotheEasternPartnership,becauseitcontainedno
securitydimension.ButasGigaBokeria,theideologueofGeorgia’sreforms,argues,inmanywaysthe
expansionoftheEuropeanmodelwasmorethreateningtoMrPutinthantheexpansionofNATO.It
posesachallengetothepost-SovietpoliticalmodelwhichMrPutinhasdefendedandspread—
onebasedoncorruption,paternalismandviolence.
Ifanyproofwereneeded,MrYanukovych’sbehaviouristhebestproofthatheneversharedEuropean
valuesandneverintendedtosigntheEuropeanAssociationAgreementinthefirstplace.Hesimplyused
itasabargainingchipinhisnegotiationswithRussia.AtareceptioninVilniuswithAngelaMerkel,the
Germanchancellor,andDaliaGrybauskaite,theLithuanianpresident,MrYanukovychwascaughton
videotryingtojustifyhisU-turntotheEuropeanleaders.“I’vebeenaloneforthree-and-a-halfyears...in
veryunequalconditions,withaverystrongRussia,”heisheardsaying.
ThiscutlittleicewithMrGrybauskaite,whosecountryhasbeenunderpressurefromRussiafor
decades.Infact,itwasinVilniusinJanuary1991thattheSovietgovernmentmadeitslastattemptsto
keeptheSovietUniontogetherbyusingforce.Itbroughtinmilitarytroopsandfiredatthepeaceful
demonstrationoutsidetheVilniustelevisioncentre.Lessthanayearlater,theSovietUnionceasedto
existandLithuaniawonitsdeservedindependence.Ukrainealsowonindependenceatthetime,
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althoughitneverreallyfoughtforitorknewwhattodowithit.But22yearslater,withhundredsof
thousandsofUkrainiansdefyingtheirthuggishpost-Sovietgovernment,thebattleforUkraineasan
independentcountryhasstartedinearnest.
Picturecredit:AFP
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