Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / j vo l g e o r e s Seismic characterization of the fall 2007 eruptive sequence at Bezymianny Volcano, Russia Weston Thelen a,d,⁎, Michael West b, Sergey Senyukov c a Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, University of Washington, Johnson, Hall 070, Box 351310, Seattle, WA 98195, USA Geophysical Institute and Alaska Volcano Observatory, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Dr. Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Services, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlosk, Russia d Cascade Volcano Observatory, United States Geological Survey, 1300 Cardinal Court, Vancouver, WA, USA b c a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 21 January 2010 Accepted 27 May 2010 Available online 4 June 2010 Keywords: Bezymianny earthquakes conduit magma chamber multiplet a b s t r a c t We examine an eruptive sequence in late 2007 at Bezymianny Volcano to characterize the magmatic plumbing system and eruption-related seismicity. Earthquake locations reveal seismicity below and offset to the north of the volcano along a tectonic fault. Based on historical seismicity, the magma chamber is postulated to have a top at about 6 km depth. Minor dome explosions, large sub-plinian eruptions and dome collapses are analyzed using an automated event classification scheme. Low-frequency tremor, interpreted as gas escape, and low-frequency earthquakes are a dominant proportion of the energy released. We also examine multiplet earthquakes whose behavior during the study period changed significantly and systematically before the largest eruption, demonstrating the potential of tracking multiplets to assess changing conditions with the conduit. Published by Elsevier B.V. 1. Introduction In 1955, Bezymianny began an eruption that led to catastrophic sector collapse and a lateral blast on March 30, 1956 (Gorshkov, 1959). Subsequent volcanic activity at Bezymianny included phases of discrete dome building and continuous dome building (Tokarev, 1981; Bogoyavlenskaya et al., 1985). Since 1976, 22 years after the paroxysmal eruption in 1956, long, thick lava flows have accompanied strong explosions (Bogoyavlenskaya and Kirsanov, 1981). During the latest phase of activity, eruptions occur 1–2 times each year. Generally, eruptions since 1976 start by extruding a low-temperature, fully crystalline spine from the vent (Malyshev, 1995; Belousov et al., 2002). As the cold spine collapses, rock avalanches are formed off the sides of the dome. Subsequently an explosion normally occurs over the course of days to weeks, which is accompanied by pyroclastic flows. These explosions are often energetic enough to destroy large parts of the dome that is eventually partial filled by the effusion of a long andesitic lava flow (Belousov et al., 2002). Since 2000, there have been at least 11 separate eruptions of this general type at Bezymianny with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) between 2 and 3 (Venzke et al., 2008). Precursory rockfall and large thermal anomalies on the new dome have allowed the Kamchatkan Branch of Geophysical ⁎ Corresponding author. Current address: Cascade Volcano Observatory, United States Geological Survey, 1300 Cardinal Court, Vancouver, WA, USA. Tel.: + 1 425 802 2346. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (W. Thelen), [email protected] (M. West), [email protected] (S. Senyukov). 0377-0273/$ – see front matter. Published by Elsevier B.V. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.05.010 Services (KBGS) to issue successful eruption predictions up to 2 weeks prior to an eruption (Senyukov et al., 2004). Earthquake locations, often used as a basis for interpreting magmatic plumbing systems, are available from the earthquake catalog prepared by the KBGS beginning in 2000 for the entire Klyuchevskoy Group of volcanoes, including Bezymianny (Senyukov et al., 2004). The earthquake catalog shows three large clusters of seismicity. Two clusters are focused under Klyuchevskoy Volcano and in a deep earthquake cluster located at the base of the crust (∼30 km) and a shallow cluster (b10 km) under Klyuchevskoy Volcano (Fig. 1; Senyukov et al., 2004). The third cluster, consisting of seismicity above 7 km depth, is associated with eruptive activity at Bezymianny (Fig. 1; Senyukov et al., 2004). To better constrain the earthquakes below Bezymianny Volcano, a project funded by the National Science Foundation's Partnerships in International Research and Education (PIRE) installed a temporary network closer to the volcano (Thelen and Team, 2006). This study utilizes data from both seismic networks to augment the long time history derived from the permanent array with the dense coverage afforded by the temporary network. Multiplets, or earthquake families are commonly observed during dome-building eruptive sequences at volcanoes such as Mount St. Helens (Fremont and Malone, 1987; Thelen et al., 2008), Soufriere Hills (Rowe et al., 2004; Green and Neuberg, 2006) and Mount Redoubt (Stephens and Chouet, 2001). Because of their repetitive nature, these earthquakes suggest a stationary, non-destructive source. The sensitivity of earthquake families to changes in eruption dynamics has been poorly explored. Bezymianny is an excellent candidate for testing the hypothesis that changes in eruption 202 W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 In this paper, we aim to characterize and describe the seismic activity occurring during a 3-month time period that included a diverse range of volcanic activity including small explosions, dome failure and characteristic explosive eruptions. We used data from the PIRE temporary seismic network deployed on the edifice of the volcano that has allowed us more detailed results than has been possible previously. This new dataset also permits a new interpretation for the plumbing system beneath this volcano through improved earthquake locations and interpretation of existing seismic data in the context of our new results. The new dataset also allows us to characterize the behavior of multiplets in several different eruptive phenomena and assess the utility of tracking multiplets in a monitoring environment. 1.1. Regional setting Fig. 1. North–South cross-section of earthquakes in the Klyuchevskoy group. Earthquakes are from the KBGS earthquake catalog between 1999 and 2007. dynamics will result in changes in characteristics of earthquake families as Bezymianny often has multiple eruptions in a given year, and at least one previous occurrence of multiplets (West et al., 2007). Bezymianny Volcano is located on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia within the Klyuchevskoy Group of volcanoes (Fig. 2, inset). The Klyuchevskoy Group includes several large active volcanic centers including Tolbachik, Klyuchevskoy, Zimina, Bezymianny, and Ushkovsky. The volcanoes are a product of subduction of the northern edge of the Pacific Plate under the Okhotsk Plate. Several authors have speculated that the volume and composition of material erupted within the Klyuchevskoy Group is largely influenced by a slab tear of the Pacific Plate, and the subsequent mantle flow around the edge of the tear (e.g. Gorbatov et al., 2000; Levin et al., 2002). Bezymianny is overshadowed by nearby Kamen and Klyuchevskoy volcanoes, which tower over a kilometer higher than Bezymianny's summit dome. The edifice of Bezymianny is built on the shoulder of the extinct Kamen volcano. Kamen was active into the Holocene (b12,000 years) however, the exact date of the last eruption is unknown (Braitseva et al., 1991). Fig. 2. Seismometer network map at Bezymianny Volcano. Labels without triangles are volcanic edifices in the immediate area. Other stations in the KBGS network exist outside the map limits, providing good azimuthal coverage for larger events. Inset map: regional map of Kamchatka, Russia. Bezymianny Volcano is shown with a black star. W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 1.2. Eruption chronology The analyses in this paper largely focus on a 3-month sequence of eruptive activity between September 1, 2007 and December 1, 2007 for which high quality seismic data are available through the PIRE network (Fig. 2). There were three clear increases in seismic amplitude (Sept. 25, Oct. 14 and Nov. 5) that correlated with observed eruptive activity (Fig. 3). The September 25 eruption had minor preeruptive seismicity, no post-eruptive seismicity beneath the edifice and a very small plume (KBGS, 2007a). No pyroclastic flow or ash deposit was preserved and thus it is interpreted that no juvenile material was involved in this small event (P. Izbekov, pers. comm., 2008). The October 14 eruption was more characteristic of the twiceyearly eruptions that have occurred at Bezymianny since 2000. The October eruption had significant pre-eruptive seismicity, large thermal anomalies, a pyroclastic flow that included juvenile material (T. Kayzar, pers. comm, 2009), and a 7 km high eruption plume (KBGS, 2007b). Additionally, significant post-eruptive seismicity extended to 4 km depth. The November 5 eruption had no pre-eruptive seismicity (KBGS, 2007c), and a pyroclastic flow that contained no juvenile material. 2. Earthquake locations 2.1. Methods We present improved earthquake locations using a new temporary network around Bezymianny. The network, comprising 8 threecomponent broadband sensors and 24-bit digitizers, was installed in stages between October 2007 and August 2009 (Thelen, 2009). To calculate absolute earthquake locations, we use the program SPONG, an adaption of FASTHYPO (Herrmann, 1979), which is benchmarked against HYPOINVERSE (Klein, 1985), and is currently used for routine earthquake locations at the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network (PNSN). SPONG assumes a flat earth for hypocenter solutions, however allows stations to be embedded within the shallowest layer of the velocity model. Our datum is the elevation of our highest station (BESA, 2400 m elevation). Stations with lower elevations than the datum, in excess of the thickness of the top layer of the velocity model, are fixed to the base of the top layer. The layered 1-D velocity model used to calculate earthquake locations was developed by Senyukov (2004). The KBGS network earthquake locations using the 1-D velocity model allow solutions at elevations in excess of the summit of the volcano. We are only confident in earthquake locations below our highest station, and thus we adjusted the 1-D velocity model to fit our datum. We use the combined networks to derive improved earthquake locations. To obtain new locations, each earthquake in the KBGS catalog in the vicinity of Bezymianny is recalculated with phase picks from the PIRE network and the velocity model discussed above. 203 Uncertainties in PIRE phase picks are generally less than 0.1 s. Phase pick errors of existing KBGS picks were 0.3 s, which is what is assumed by the KBGS. The sample rates are similar (PIRE: 100 samples/s, KBGS: 124 samples/s) between the two networks. We also produce a second earthquake dataset using the PIRE network based on phase detections from the edifice stations. Though these events are less constrained in the north without the KBGS stations, the detection threshold is much lower because of the proximity of the PIRE stations to the edifice. To quantify the errors introduced by the PIRE network geometry, we run a simulation of earthquake locations around the network and calculated the difference between the original earthquake locations and the recalculated earthquake locations. First, we build a 3-D grid with 0.2-degree increment in latitude and longitude, and a 1 km increment in depth. For each grid point, synthetic travel times are calculated to each station in the PIRE network. A hypocenter is calculated for each set of synthetic travel times and differenced from the original location (Fig. 4). As expected, the errors are lowest directly under the network, extending in some cases to approximately 6.5 km depth (− 4 km above sea level). Errors remain acceptable a few kilometers north of the summit, where seismic activity is high. In most cases the vertical error dominates, however further from the perimeter of the network, the horizontal errors become comparable to the vertical errors. To further refine the absolute earthquake locations, we relocate a subset of earthquakes using the double difference algorithm (Waldhauser and Ellsworth, 2000) using only the manually-picked phase differences. Using phase pick differences instead of absolute phase arrivals reduces the error introduced from inaccuracies in the velocity model. Linear artifacts in phase-differenced earthquake locations can exist from a poor distribution of phase picks around the epicenter. To quantify this effect, we use a jackknife test (Efron and Gong, 1983), which evaluates changes in the distribution of phase picks around an earthquake by removing one station at a time and relocating all of the earthquakes using the remaining phase picks from the reduced station set. For each station that is removed, a new earthquake location is calculated and the distance between the full network location and the jackknife location is used as an estimate of error due to network configuration. 2.2. Hypocenter solutions The KBGS catalog between September 2006 and August 2007 contains 342 earthquakes at Bezymianny Volcano. Fig. 5 shows these earthquakes located with the addition of PIRE phase picks, at least 1 edifice station arrival, 6 total phases and a Root Mean Square (RMS) residual of less than 0.5 s. The catalog contains both high- and lowfrequency events. No S-waves were used from the KBGS catalog because the S-wave phase picks could not be reliably corroborated on PIRE seismograms when PIRE and KBGS seismometers were collocated. Adding the additional PIRE stations resulted in a 35% improvement Fig. 3. Eruption chronology between September 1, 2007 and December 1, 2007. The rectified seismic amplitude (counts) is shown as black and gray lines for stations BELO and BESA, respectively. Dark gray dots are the size (number of pixels) of the thermal anomaly on the dome of Bezymianny and light gray dots are the maximum temperature of the anomaly. Thermal information is from the AVHRR platform on the NOAA 17 and NOAA 18 satellites (KBGS, 2007a,b,c). Each pixel is 1 km across. 204 W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 arrival are shown in Fig. 5. The resulting 73 earthquakes in the PIRE catalog have an average error of 0.11 s, an average of six phase picks and an average azimuthal gap of 185°. Like the KBGS earthquake locations, the earthquake locations using only PIRE network stations showed a north–northeast trend. Similar trends between the two earthquake datasets are reliable because the datasets use station configurations that are significantly different. In addition to the north–northeast trend of epicenters, a cluster of seismicity to the east of the main cluster, between stations BELO and BERG, was detected at 4.5 km depth. To reduce relative earthquake location errors discussed above, we relocated both earthquake datasets with manually-picked phase differences using the HypoDD program (Waldhauser and Ellsworth, 2000). Earthquakes were selected that had 5 or more phase picks. Earthquake locations of the 121 relocated earthquakes are shown in Fig. 6. Of the 121 earthquakes, 75% have 7 or more phase picks in the solution. As in the other datasets, there was a general orientation of epicenters to the north–northeast. These earthquake locations show more clustering than the other datasets, a characteristic often seen when comparing absolute locations to phase-differenced locations. An apparent aseismic zone exists above 2 km elevation, which is present because the shallowest earthquakes often have solutions with depths above the top of the velocity datum and are subsequently discarded from further analysis. Jackknife ellipses encompassing 95% of the errors due to a poor distribution of phase picks were 0.72 km, 0.76 km and 0.77 km in X, Y and Z directions, respectively. Jackknife errors considering only earthquakes with 7 or more picks were not significantly better than the earthquakes with 5 or more picks. 2.3. Tectonic and volcanic interpretation Fig. 4. Results of sensitivity tests of PIRE network. Contours represent the distance in kilometers between the initial and final synthetic earthquake location. Contours above 5 km are not shown. The dark black line is the elevation profile along the cross-section. A. Cross-section of location errors looking west. Bezymianny is located at 55.97° latitude. The highest point in the cross-section is the summit of Kamen Volcano. B. Cross-section looking north. in the average RMS of the residual of the earthquakes in the relocated catalog (0.32 s to 0.21 s). The average number of P-wave phase picks was 7.8 and the average azimuthal gap was 146°. Absolute earthquake locations trend north–northeast, sub-parallel to the trend between Kamen and Klyuchevskoy volcanoes with most depths between −2 and 2.5 km elevation above sea level (0 to 4.5 km below the summit). The trend in earthquake locations shows a near vertical structure possibly deepening to the north of Bezymianny. To locate smaller and shallower seismicity than is possible with the sparser and more distal KBGS network, we analyze a subset of seismicity during November 2007 using event detections from the PIRE network. Earthquakes were chosen based on their amplitude and impulsive phase arrivals regardless of the frequency content. 138 earthquakes were initially located. Earthquake locations with 5 or more phase picks, residuals less than 0.5, and one edifice station Different earthquake datasets, station configurations and earthquake location techniques all reveal earthquake locations in a north– northeast trending lineament with a vertical or steeply east-dipping orientation (Figs. 5 and 6). We suggest that the earthquakes are occurring along a preexisting fracture or fault structure. Magma often utilizes existing weaknesses in the crust to get to the surface, and the relative ease of moving magma along a fault structure as opposed to homogeneous crust with distributed fractures could help explain the frequency and size of eruptions at Bezymianny (Costa et al., 2007). Fault zones have been previously identified within the Klyuchevskoy Group of volcanoes with a combination of magnetotellurics and gravity (Balesta et al., 1976). A large north–northeast trending topographic high exists in the Cretaceous-age and crystalline bedrock centered about 5 km to the west of Bezymianny, which has been interpreted as a deep seated fault that assists magma to the surface (Balesta et al., 1976). To the south, the same fault, or a sub-parallel fault, was utilized in the 1975–1976-fissure eruption of Tolbachik (Fedotov et al., 1980; Zobin, 1990). Outside of seismicity associated with volcanic activity, the fault has not had any large historical earthquakes. The presence of seismicity that extends very clearly from Bezymianny toward Kamen volcano is an intriguing result considering Kamen has had no historic eruptions. It was active in the Holocene, though its dissected morphology suggests that it has been quiescent for several 100 years. If the earthquakes are responding to magma movement, then it is possible that Bezymianny is using part of the same plumbing system that previously fed eruptions at Kamen Volcano. There exists a small earthquake-free (aseismic) zone directly underneath Bezymianny Volcano in the high-resolution earthquake locations at 1 to 1.5 km depth below the crater (Fig. 6, inset). Aseismic zones have been previously interpreted at other volcanoes as indicating the presence of magma, fluids or gases below the surface (Weaver et al., 1987). The presence of an aseismic zone alone cannot distinguish the W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 205 Fig. 5. Absolute earthquake locations from Bezymianny Volcano. Upper left: map view of absolute earthquake locations using events indentified within the KBGS catalog with added PIRE picks (gray circles), and earthquake locations using only the PIRE network (white circles). Dark contours are at 1 km elevation intervals, and labels are in kilometers. Black triangles are stations within the PIRE network. Lower left: east–west cross-section through edifice. Dark line is elevation profile along cross-sectional line. Upper right: north–south cross-section through edifice. No vertical exaggeration. Fig. 6. Earthquake locations at Bezymianny using differential travel times. Symbols and axes are the same as Fig. 5. The dashed box in the upper right plot shows the boundaries of the inset plot. The inset at the bottom right shows the detail of the shallow aseismic zone (dashed circle). 206 W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 type of fluid or gas present in that zone. Fluid inclusions in the rims of plagioclases erupted from recent eruptions require the storage of magma at depths that roughly coincide with the depth of the earthquake-free zone (P. Izbekov, pers. comm., 2009). It is not clear if the proposed shallow magma chamber is transient, or a permanent feature. The geometry of the earthquake-free zone is speculative given the potential errors in the earthquake locations, and the short time period of the analysis. Earthquakes during eruptions at Bezymianny since 1999 characteristically extend from the surface to a depth of approximately 6 km (Fig. 7). This is clear evidence of stress changes either due to pressurization or depressurization of the conduit feeding the eruption (Barker and Malone, 1991). Even minor (∼1 m) inflation of a conduit and pressurization of the surrounding crust can lead to large changes in Coulomb stress many kilometers away from the conduit, which can lead to earthquakes on a variety of fault planes around the conduit (Roman, 2005). Given this scenario, a magma chamber or magma storage area may exist where the seismicity ceases at depth (Fig. 8). Depressurization of the conduit and magma chamber can also be an efficient source of seismicity after an eruption (Scandone and Malone, 1985). The May 25 and June 12, 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helens had similar eruptive volumes to the bi-annual eruptions at Bezymianny (∼ 106–107 m3; Belousov et al., 2002; Scandone and Malone, 1985; Belousova, pers. comm.. 2009) and possessed posteruptive seismicity between the surface and the magma chamber. Assuming a similar relationship at Bezymianny as exists at Mount St. Helens between depressurization seismicity and magma withdrawal, the deepest extent of post-eruptive seismicity should mark the top of the magma chamber (Fig. 8). The regional gravity field supports the presence of a magma chamber with a center of mass at 10 km deep, which is consistent with the interpretation of a magma chamber top at approximately 6 km deep (Balesta et al., 1976). 3. Earthquake classification 3.1. Automatic event classification methods An initial set of earthquakes is detected using triggers in the continuous seismic data on stations BELO, BESA and BERG. We use a short-term average to long-term average ratio (STA/LTA) to determine the initial triggers. Only edifice stations are used to emphasize the activity occurring at Bezymianny. The continuous data is filtered between 2 and 12 Hz to accentuate local event arrivals. When triggers at three stations are within 8 s of one another, an event is declared. Fig. 8. Interpretation of seismicity underneath Bezymianny Volcano. Volcanic earthquakes are often classified based on frequency (Chouet, 1996). In this study, we divide earthquakes into high- and low-frequency earthquakes based on the relative proportion of spectral energy below and above 5 Hz (Fig. 9). By taking the ratio of the average of two short frequency bands, an event can be accurately characterized (Buurman and West, in press). In this study, we use a low-frequency band between 1 and 5 Hz, and a high-frequency band between 6 Hz and 10 Hz. For each event, we calculate the spectra of a 13 second window around the trigger (3 s before, 10 s after) and calculate the ratio of the averages of the high- and low-frequency band. Frequency ratios are then averaged across edifice stations (BELO, BERG and BESA) to get the final frequency ratio for a given event. To insure that the background noise in the signal is not contaminating the spectra, the frequency ratio is discarded if the maximum signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the event is less than 3. The SNR cutoff is chosen based on visual inspection of spectra. The SNR at a given time is determined by the center time of the signal average over a 3 second window divided by the average noise in a window 3 s before the first arrival. Fig. 7. Time–depth plot of shallow seismicity underneath Bezymianny Volcano. Earthquakes are plotted as circles sized based on their magnitude. KBGS-confirmed eruptions are denoted by vertical gray lines. An apparent deepening of earthquakes after 2004 corresponds to the addition of new stations closer to the volcano that better constrain the earthquake depths. The summit of Bezymianny lies at approximately 3 km elevation. A relative increase in the number of earthquakes after 2004 is likely due to the presence of closer stations as well. W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 207 Fig. 9. Waveform definitions used for ratio analysis at Bezymianny Volcano. For each panel, the waveform is shown on the left and the power spectrum is shown on the right. All waveforms have been filtered between 1 and 20 Hz. The cutoff between high- and low-frequency events is chosen near a shoulder in the histogram of frequency ratio distribution (Fig. 10), which emphasizes events with noticeably more low-frequency energy than high-frequency energy, similar to Power et al. (1994) and Lahr et al. (1994). The boundary between high-frequency and low-frequency events is not particularly striking. This may reflect a continuum in source processes between brittle fracture and fluid resonance (Lahr et al., 1994; Neuberg, 2000). Observationally, the cutoff could be chosen to be 0.1 higher or lower and still be similar to other event classification schemes (i.e. Lahr et al., 1994). Changing the cutoff within these boundaries does not significantly affect the results of the event classification. The parameters for classifying events are shown in Table 1. The duration for each event on each station is calculated by finding the first time past the maximum amplitude of the event when the SNR drops below 1.5, similar to durations that are calculated for codawave magnitudes of local earthquakes (Dewberry and Crosson, 1995). The durations of events are highly sensitive to station noise and site effects, thus we used the median duration of the three edifice stations to determine the final event duration. By analogy with signals seen at Mount St. Helens (Malone et al., 1981) and Soufriere Hills (Neuberg, 2000; Calder et al., 2005), high- frequency signals with long durations are classified as rockfall. Most of these events also have emergent onsets and a cigar-shaped envelope (Fig. 9). Few, if any, alternative seismic sources exist in the literature to describe such events. No direct visual observations of rockfall have been correlated with seismic signals at Bezymianny though continuous visual observations are rare, particularly during eruptive periods. The presence of a large dacite dome within the crater of Bezymianny, which is as large or larger than the domes at Mount St. Helens and Soufriere Hills, suggests that rockfall must be present. The duration delimiting rockfall from regular events is chosen deliberately so that only small- and intermediate-sized dome events are classified as high- or low-frequency events. Larger, locatable events from Bezymianny also may be classified as either rockfall or low-frequency tremor (LFT) if their length exceeds 25 s. Most of the longer duration events that are locatable by the KBGS occur around the time of eruptions, when the counts of rockfall and LFTs are already high. Thus the effect of misidentified Bezymianny earthquakes is proportionally small. 3.2. Automated event classification results Using ratios to classify event types, we analyzed the sequence of seismicity between September 1, 2007 and November 1, 2007 (Fig. 11). Increased rates of low- and high-frequency earthquakes appeared prior to the September and October eruptions. The September and October eruptions both had peaks in rockfall activity, while the November eruption was relatively quiet. LFTs maintained a steady background rate through the September eruption, but increased dramatically prior to the October eruption with a peak of occurrence after the October eruption. Large variations in the occurrence of low-frequency earthquakes and LFTs in November 2007 coincided with increased activity at Klyuchevskoy, and thus may Table 1 Parameters for classification of events at Bezymianny Volcano. Fig. 10. Histogram of ratios from all analyzed events. The black arrow shows the division between our classification of “low-frequency” and “high-frequency” events. Classification Frequency ratio (high/low) Duration (s) Low-frequency High-frequency Rockfall Low-frequency tremor ≤0.6 N0.6 N0.6 ≤0.6 b25 b25 N25 N25 208 W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 Fig. 11. Event occurrence with time at Bezymianny Volcano. Black bars represent the occurrence of a given event type calculated every 4 h. Gray arrows are explosion times. Gaps in the occurrence of all event types after eruptions reflects continuous tremor. reflect contamination of the seismic record (S. Senyukov, pers. comm., 2008). The LFT signals are a combination of spasmodic tremor, and low-frequency events that immediately precede rockfall. In the latter case, a low-frequency event occurs at the beginning of a rockfall signal, suggesting a coupled relationship. Such coupled events have been identified at Soufriere Hills, Montserrat where the long period portion was identified as violent gas escape from the dome that accompanied rockfall (Neuberg, 2000; Luckett et al., 2008). Tracking the amplitude evolution of events as a function of the type of event reveals temporal changes or trends in processes that may not be detected using all of the undifferentiated events together. We used the cumulative maximum amplitude as a proxy for energy release between September and November 2007 (Fig. 12). At Bezymianny, the LFTs and low-frequency earthquakes have a significantly higher energy release than the rockfall or high-frequency events (Table 2). Fig. 12. Cumulative amplitude release of different event types at Bezymianny Volcano. Vertical gray lines are eruption times. W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 209 Table 2 Table summarizing observations of ratio analysis at Bezymianny Volcano. A “#” sign means number, “amp.” stands for amplitude, “Cum.” stands for cumulative and “n/c” stands for no change. Eruption Sept. 25, 2007 Oct. 14, 2007 Observation Pre-eruption Post-eruption # of low-frequency n/c # of high-frequency n/c Minor peak 2 days after eruption, Up, 12 h prior slow decay n/c Up, 24 h prior Up, 14 h prior, Rapid decrease peak at eruption # of LFT n/c n/c Cumulative amp. low-frequency n/c n/c Pre-eruption # of rockfall Up 4 days prior Cumulative amp. high-frequency Minor increase n/c Cumulative amp. rockfall Cumulative amp. LFT n/c n/c Up 3.5 days prior Broad increase starting Oct.1, apid increase 1+ days prior Broad increase starting Oct.1, rapid increase with eruption Increase 3 days prior Increase 2.5 days prior Small increase Small increase 4. Multiplet analysis 4.1. Methods As in the automated event classification, we consider all detected events within the continuous record when detecting and classifying multiplets. For each detection, we cut a nine-second window encompassing the event, including 2 s before the earliest trigger. We use a relatively large window prior to the automatic pick because triggers are often observed to be later than the actual first arrival, specifically in cases where the first arrival was emergent. Nine-second windows are also used to increase the stability of the cross-correlation values and prevent cycle skipping, which is common in smaller time windows (Schaff et al., 2004). After all of the events are selected for a certain day, each nine-second waveform is normalized and crosscorrelated on each individual station. Cross-correlation is a measure of similarity commonly used to compare two waveforms (e.g. Poupinet et al., 1984; Dodge et al., 1995; Rowe et al., 2004). After cross-correlation of every event against every other event, the result is an N × N matrix of cross-correlation values for each station where N is the number of events. Following the method of Petersen (2007), we then find the mean cross-correlation value of each row of the correlation matrix at a single station (BELO). The row with the highest average cross-correlation value is then searched for events that exceeded the normalized cross-correlation value threshold. We chose a cross-correlation threshold of 0.7 based on visual observations of similarity. Below that value, events cannot be visually distinguished as being similar and higher values of the crosscorrelation threshold divide the events into smaller multiplets that appeared similar. The events that exceed the cross-correlation threshold with the selected event are then checked for similarity on the other stations (BESA and BERG). Any event within the row that exceeds the crosscorrelation value threshold on 2 out of 3 stations is considered part of the same multiplet and removed from the pool of remaining waveforms. After removal, the row with the highest average is again selected, and the same method as above is followed to extract subsequent multiplets until there are no events left. To produce a continuous catalog, the day-long multiplet catalogs must be merged. In order to distill the day-long catalogs into a manageable number of traces, we stack each event within each multiplet into a single representative waveform for each multiplet. All stacks are amplitude-normalized and cross-correlated, creating an Nov. 5, 2007 Post-eruption Peak 12 h after eruption, slow decay Contaminated Peak 3 days after eruption, slow decay Minor increase after eruption 4 day decrease to background n/c Peak at eruption, slow decay after Rapid decrease 2 days after eruption, broad decrease until Nov. 1 Rapid decrease after eruption, slow decrease until Nov. 1 Decrease to background 4 days after Rapid decrease after eruption, slow decrease until Nov. 1 Contaminated Contaminated n/c n/c Contaminated M × M matrix of cross-correlation values for each station where M is the total number of daily stacks. The M × M matrix includes all event stacks from each day during the entire study period. We use the same technique to identify similar stacks in the cross-correlation matrix that we used to identify similar events in the day-long individual event analysis. Stacks are considered similar and combined if the normalized cross-correlation threshold is 0.8 on two or more stations. The individual events of similar stacks are then combined to create one multiplet. Because the individual events within a stack do not perfectly correlate with the stack itself, we choose a higher crosscorrelation threshold than in the individual event analysis. The intention is to keep a cross-correlation value between individual events of combined stacks at or above the cross-correlation threshold of the day-long individual analyses. The analysis attempts to produce a complete catalog, however during long time periods it is often unreasonable, given computing resources, to consider every event that occurs every day for several months. To reduce the computing load in combining multiplets across individual days, we only consider events that have occurred at least twice on a given day. Though this approach will skip events that occur only once per day, they do not offer sufficient time resolution to be of significant use for our purposes. 4.2. Multiplet results Multiplets continued unaffected through the September and November eruptions, while no multiplet that occurred prior to the October eruption reoccurs after the eruption (Fig. 13). This suggests a fundamental change occurring in the multiplet source area during the October eruption. Whatever multiplet source, or sources, that existed prior to the eruption were destroyed during the explosion. During the September and November eruptions, either the eruptions were not strong enough to destroy the multiplet source areas, or the multiplet source area was deeper than the source depth of the eruption. Stacks of each multiplet show the tremendous variety of sources and dominant frequencies (Fig. 14). No obvious change in dominant frequency of the multiplets was observed around any explosion. The observation of most multiplets on only edifice stations implies a location in the upper 1–2 km of the edifice. A subset of located multiplets that were recorded with the full PIRE network reveals a range of depths between 0.5 and 6 km in regions consistent with seismicity in Fig. 5. 210 W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 Fig. 13. Multiplet timeline from September 1, 2007 to December 1, 2007. Each circle is an earthquake; black dots that lie on a line are part of a single multiplet. The gray line is the rectified seismic amplitude on station BELO. Vertical black lines mark volcanic events. Only multiplets with 5 or more events are included. 5. Discussion 5.1. Conceptual model of pre-eruptive seismicity and multiplet development Multiplets provide insight into the conditions in and around the region in which they occur. Here we assume that earthquakes, multiplets or not, are happening at the edges of a conduit, or along cracks peripheral to the conduit. Between eruptions there is measurable SO2 emitted from the dome (Clark et al., 2007). During background periods, magma and the associated gases move slowly through the conduit. Steady gas escape implies a relatively stable source region for the production of repeating earthquakes. This environment results in relatively long-lived multiplets since large Fig. 14. Multiplet stacks of the earthquakes recorded on station BESA. The month and day of the start of the multiplet is shown on to the left of the respective stack. The number of events within the multiplet is shown to the right and above the respective trace. Columns provide stacks from multiplets identifiers 1–18, 19–36, and 37–54 (corresponding to Fig. 13) in the first, second and third columns, respectively. W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 211 stresses are not reorienting or irreversibly altering sources. Multiplet events during background periods will be small and of similar size, reflecting the relatively low and consistent stresses within the conduit. Prior to a large eruption, pressure builds in the conduit system, forcing faster and more chaotic gas and/or magma transport. Higher stresses and pressure gradients allow more gas escape into the surrounding crust, producing precursory seismicity. In our conceptual model, multiplet sequences leading up to eruptions have shorter durations with fewer contemporary multiplets, resulting from constantly changing volatile pathways. 5.2. Application of the conceptual model to event observations We apply this conceptual model to the September, October and November 2007 eruptions (Fig. 15). Since the multiplets make up less than 30% of the overall seismicity, we treat the multiplets and event types as different observations. During the September eruption, there was no obvious change in multiplet parameters. Only a minor amount of pre-eruptive seismicity was present in the form of rockfall and LFTs, and no deep post-eruption seismicity was present. There is no geologic evidence for extrusion during the September event, however it is possible that the precursory rockfall activity could reflect increased deformation from endogenous dome growth. Through 50 years of extrusion, the dome is at or near the angle of repose over much of its surface and thus a minor steepening of the surface from inflation of the dome will result in increased rockfall. The rapid decrease in rockfall after the eruption in September thus suggests that the deformation source was immediately removed after the small plume was erupted (KBGS, 2007a). The eruption was not strong enough to significantly alter the multiplet source area, since many multiplets continued unchanged through the eruption (Fig. 16). Given its seismic characteristics and small size, it is clear that the eruption involved only the very shallowest part of the conduit and dome, above any active multiplet source area. Leading up to the October eruption, the multiplets changed behavior systematically. The durations and number of concurrent multiplets decreased significantly. Multiplets occurring before the eruption did not continue through the eruption nor did they reactivate after the eruption, suggesting an irreversible change in the multiplet source area during the explosive phase. The eruption was also preceded by significant increases in non-multiplet seismicity including low- and high-frequency earthquakes, rockfall and LFTs (Fig. 11). From the perspective of cumulative moment release, the rockfall and LFTs were particularly productive prior to the October eruption (Fig. 12). Prior to the October eruption precursory increases in the number and average amplitude of LFTs suggest a rapid influx of gas into the dome prior to the eruption, presumably ahead of rising juvenile material. If LFTs are used as a proxy for gas, then the October eruption included more gas than the September eruption, an observation supported by the relative heights of the observed eruption plumes. There were no direct observations of the dome immediately prior to the October eruption, thus it is not clear if increases in precursory rockfall were the result of dome deformation or the degradation of a cold and degassed plug extruded at the surface, as described in the 1997 Bezymianny eruption (Belousov et al., 2002). Deep post-eruptive seismicity was also present, suggesting that the October explosion and subsequent lava flow sourced a deeper part of the conduit than the September eruption. This deep and energetic source permanently changed the conduit and, hence, the behavior of the multiplets. Multiplet behavior and characteristics of event occurrence during the October eruption provided insight into the seismic signature of lava flow emplacement. The timing and duration of the lava flow is speculative as no observations of the lava flow emplacement were made until days after the October 2007 eruption. Peaks in the rates of low- and high-frequency events occurred several hours after the Fig. 15. Diagrammatic description of the three eruptive events shown with cutaway cross-sections. Light gray within the cutaway represents magma, circles are earthquakes and the white stars represent the multiplet source area. Diagrams are not to scale. October eruption (Fig. 11). In contrast the September eruption had no lava flow, and the rates of high- and low-frequency earthquakes remained unchanged. Thus the high amplitude low- and highfrequency events are likely recording the ascent and extrusion of magma during the October eruption. The peak in numbers of low- and high-frequency events after the initial explosive eruption in October 2007 may coincide with the opening of the volcanic system and beginning of the lava flow. The slow decay of several parameters after 212 W. Thelen et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 194 (2010) 201–213 Fig. 16. Multiplet behavior during September and November eruptions. A.) Record section of 62 events from multiplet 6 (Fig. 13) recorded on station BELO. Dates reflect the start time of the record. The black arrow shows the approximate time of the eruption. B.) Cross-correlation coefficient of the first event in multiplet 6 to every other event with time. Gray vertical line represents the time of the September eruption. C.) Record section of 562 events from multiplet 26 on station BESA. Labels and arrows are same as A. D.) Cross-correlation coefficient of third event in multiplet 26 compared with all other events on station BESA. the eruption including the numbers of events and cumulative amplitude, paired with increases in multiplet durations and number of concurrent multiplets are a reflection of the gradually declining overpressure after the opening of the volcanic conduit. The surface expression, if observed, would likely have been a slowing of the rate of extrusion of lava at the surface. The November eruption did not obviously affect the multiplet characteristics and no individual multiplet was affected by the eruption (Figs. 13 and 16). There was a lack of significant preeruptive seismicity, no juvenile material (T. Kayzar, pers. comm., 2008) and no ash cloud was reported despite a large thermal anomaly (KBGS, 2007b). Local scientists interpret the November event as a dome collapse (P. Izbekov, pers. comm., 2008). This interpretation is consistent with the unchanged patterns in multiplet behavior if the dome collapse was strictly a shallow process and did not extend deeper into the conduit and through the multiplet source region or if the perturbation in the shallow conduit was not strong enough to disrupt the multiplet source region. magma accumulation zone at approximately 7 km deep, offset 1– 2 km toward Kamen volcano. Earthquake lineations suggest that the magmatic plumbing of Bezymianny may be controlled by a large crustal fault that is sub-parallel to the trend between Bezymianny and Klyuchevskoy. We studied a sequence of three volcanic events to understand the seismic signatures of different types of eruptive phenomenon. The most energetic signals are lowfrequency earthquakes and LFTs. Precursory increases in high- and low-frequency earthquakes are also present before the most powerful eruption. Multiplet behavior only appears to be affected by the largest eruptions, which are sourcing deeper material than surficial explosions and dome collapses. We also present a model assuming that changes in multiplet behavior are tied to conditions within the conduit. Changes in the multiplet duration, number of concurrent multiplet and average multiplet amplitudes prior to the October eruption demonstrate how multiplets can be used to assess the conditions with the conduit prior to large explosive eruptions. 6. Conclusions Acknowledgments Using composite seismic network around Bezymianny Volcano, Russia, we established the geometry and location of a shallow volatile zone 1–1.5 km below the dome, and an additional deeper We wish to acknowledge the PIRE program for funding the logistics and research that went into this paper. 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