Climate change and the Baltic Sea
How will the climate change transform ecosystem services in
the Baltic Sea?
Riku Lumiaro
Markku Viitasalo
Finnish Environment Institute - Marine Research Center
Educators for the Baltic Sea –seminar 8.9.2009
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Costanza et al. 1997:
The value of the world’s
ecosystem services and natural
capital.
-Nature 387: 253-260.
”For the entire biosphere,
the value is...
an average of
USD 33 1012 per year.
Global GNP is
USD 18 1012 per year.”
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Costanza et al. 1997: Global map of the value of ecosystem services
100
1000
USD ha-1 year-1
10000
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Costanza et al. 1997: Global map of the value of ecosystem services
100
1000
10000
USD ha-1 year-1
Ecosystem services of the Baltic Sea (sensu Costanza et al.):
Gas regulation
Climate regulation
Nutrient cycling
Waste treatment
Biological control
Habitat/refugia
Food production
Genetic resources
Recreation
Cultural
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Costanza et al. 1997: Global map of the value of ecosystem services
100
1000
10000
USD ha-1 year-1
Ecosystem services of the Baltic Sea (sensu Costanza et al.):
Gas regulation
Climate regulation
Nutrient cycling
Waste treatment
Biological control
Habitat/refugia
Food production
Genetic resources
Recreation
Cultural
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Can the climate induce a change in
ecosystem (services) in the sea?
Art:
Juha Flinkman
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
A new record of seagulls in Utö (Archipelago Sea):
21.500 common gulls
- Helsingin Sanomat 8.2.2008
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
”The peculiarities of the
Archipelago Sea perhaps
induced by winds”
Margus Ellermaa, Birdlife
(Helsingin Sanomat 10.2.2008)
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
The North Sea in 1955-87 : ”Parallel long-term
trends across four trophic levels and weather”
W-winds
phytoplankton
pikkuk. pesuekoko
Aebischer et al. 1990
-Nature 347: 753 - 755
zooplankton
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
The North Sea in 1955-87 : ”Parallel long-term
trends across four trophic levels and weather”
W-winds
phytoplankton
herring
pikkuk. pesuekoko
Aebischer et al. 1990
-Nature 347: 753 - 755
zooplankton
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
The North Sea in 1955-87 : ”Parallel long-term
trends across four trophic levels and weather”
W-winds
phytoplankton
herring
zooplankton
kittiwake laydate
kittiwake chicks
Aebischer et al. 1990
-Nature 347: 753 - 755
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Baltic Sea: Herring get smaller and salmon
fewer in the Gulf of Finland
7.0
herring
w-a-a
60
6.8
50
6.6
salinity
200
150
100
30
salmon landings (1000 tn)
herring WAA (grams)
salinity (psu)
6.2
5.8
salmon catches
40
6.4
6.0
250
50
20
0
10
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Year
1990
1995
2000
Data: sal. and herring w-a-a: FIMR, Rönkkönen et al. 2004; salmon catches: ICES CM 2004/ACFM:23
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Baltic Sea: Common guillemot chicks lose
weight in Stora Karlsö (Gotland)
Henrik Österblom 2006: Complexity and change in a simple food web:
Studies in the Baltic Sea. –Ph.D. thesis, Univ. Stockholm
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Yes!
Climate induced ecosystem changes
are taking place in the Baltic Sea!
Two basic mechanisms
1. Warming up
2. Increase of rainfall
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Mechanism 1:
The Baltic Sea warms up
Air temperature increases
Water temperature
Stratification
Ice cover
Nutrient
conditions
Warm water species
increase
Plankton community
changes
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Mechanism 2:
Freshwater runoff to the Baltic increases
Runoff increases
Nutrient flow
increases
Salinity
decreases
Saline pulses
decrease
Stratification gets stronger(?)
Eutrophication
gets worse
Pelagic communities
change
Oxygen conditions get
worse
Species geographic
limits shift
Benthic communities
change
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
How does this
affect me?
Photo:
Seppo Keränen
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 1:
Geographic
limits of
species
change
Limnocalanus
Neritic
copepods
Aurelia
mackerel
Belone
”Oceanization” of
the Baltic Sea
1930s-1950s
Segerstråle 1952, 1969
Lindqvist 1959
Cyanea
Fritillaria Oithona
cod,
flatfish
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 2:
Non-indigenous species increase
Photos: Ari Laine
Miljoonaa tonnia
2000 ships on the Baltic!
Organisms from a ballast tank
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Example 3:
Effects of harmful substances get worse?
 Physiological functions speed up
 Resistance to environmental stress weakens?
Acetylcholinesterase (AChE)
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 4: Herrings get smaller
10
High growth rate
1975-80
9
)k
8
salinity
7
6
5
4
Slope of the growth rate (
Low growth rate
1986-93
3
2
1960
1965
1970
1975
Rönkkönen et al. 2004, CJFAS 61: 219-229
1980
1985
1990
1995
Why me?
Juha Flinkman
Example 5:
Benthic communities change
1928
Sven G. Segerstråle 1928
2000
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 5:
Benthic communities change
1928
Sven G. Segerstråle 1928
2000
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
How do benthic animals affect the benthos?
A mysid shrimp in an aquarium
Viitasalo & Viitasalo 2004 - MEPS 281: 155-163
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 6:
Blue-green algal blooms increase
10.7.2005
Kaitala & Stutz, FIMR
Example 7: Eutrophication gets worse
Blue green algal blooms
Eutrophied bays
Drifting algal mats
Filamentous algae
T. Lindholm
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 7: Eutrophication gets worse
Or does it?
Peak = high bacterial production, low primary production!
Johan Wikner & Agneta Andersson,
Umeå University, Sweden,
unpublished results
FROM GULF OF BOTHNIA
Why? Because organic carbon (in river water) is ”good food” for bacteria!
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Summary
Abiotic factors
• Temperature increases
• Salinity decreases
• Nutrient runoff increases
• Stratification…?
• Oxygen conditions…?
• Internal loading of
nutrients…?
Biota
•
•
•
•
•
Geographic limits shift
Plankton community changes
Sprat and herring stay thin
Less valuable fish increase
Non-indigenous species
increase
• Blue green algae increase
• …
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Conclusions
Climate change
1. Worsens eutrophication
(but effects vary from basin to basin)
2. Alters diversity and ecosystem functioning
3. Influences ecosystem services:






Waste treatment capacity of the sea
Biological control by keystone species
Habitats/refugia
Food production
Genetic resources
Recreational and cultural values
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Conclusions
Climate change needs to be taken into
account in ecosystem-based management
and spatial planning of the Baltic Sea
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Remember:
 Baltic Sea is not
dead, yet!
 The young of
today are the
decision-makers
of tomorrow!
Fejan, Stockholm
archipelago
17.06.2005
M. Viitasalo