The ‘resource curse’ and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) SHADY ANAYATI Year of submission: 2012 This dissertation is submitted as part of a MA/MSc degree in Geopolitics, Territory & Security at King’s College London i List of Contents: List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..ii List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………iii Chapter 1 – Introduction and literature review 1.1 Introduction………………………………………………………….……………………………………………………………1 1.2 Changing perspectives about natural resources….…………………………………………………..............2 1.3 The resource-curse theory in details……………………….………………………………………………………….3 - Poor economic performance and exposure to shocks - Social and economic inequalities and low standards of living - Rent-looting and corruption - Tendency to authoritarian regimes 1.4 Challenging the resource curse…………………………………………………………………………………………..5 Chapter 2 – Third factors and policy suggestions 2.1 New trends in economic growth, a turnabout?......................................................................7 2.2 Mediation of social and political factors in the relationship between natural resources, poverty and inequality…………………………………………………………10 2.3 The role of taxation and state formation to achieve democracy and transparency……….....12 Chapter 3 – Transparency initiatives for the extractive industries – the EITI 3.1 Transparency Initiatives for the Extractive Industries……………………………………………16 3.2 Case Study – the EITI……………………………………………………………………………..……………..17 - EITI and transparency - EITI and accountability - EITI and economic growth - EITI, poverty and inequality - The EITI’s new strategy 3.3 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..25 Appendices Reference List ii List of Tables Table 1: Chinese influence on world demand for refined metals demand, 2000-2007……………………9 Table 2: Policies suggested in chapter 2 to promote transparency………………………………………………18 Table 3: Policies suggested in chapter 2 to promote accountability………………………………………………21 List of figures Figure 1: Resource-Intensive Sub-Saharan African countries: Real Resource GDP Growth……………8 Figure 2: Real International Commodity Price 1996-2011……………………………….…………………………..8 Figure 3: FDI inflows to Africa, 1990-2007 (billions of dollars)………………………………………………………9 Figure 4: Human Development Index: trends 1980-present…………………………………………………………11 Figure 5: Suggested Action 11 vs. Requirement 11………………………………………………………………………24 iii Chapter 1 – Introduction and literature review 1.1 Introduction Since the beginning of the century, certification schemes, international standards and transparency initiatives for extractive industries have become a widely discussed topic. These initiatives try to resolve the apparent contradiction that was highlighted by the resource curse theory: resource-rich developing countries are among the poorest, less democratic and most conflict-ridden countries in the world, despite their endowments of natural wealth. Such issues were put under the spotlight in the late 1990s when the phenomena of conflict minerals, particularly blood diamonds, and that of resource-rent looting were disclosed, thanks to the work of a number of NGOs, primarily Global Witness International, and scholars, such as Collier & Hoeffler, Le Billon, Ross et al. The media gave great emphasis to these issues, arguably because important multinational mining corporations were involved. Therefore, at the beginning of the 2000s a plethora of academic literature, articles and reports by NGOs addressed the relationship between resources, conflict and bad governance, laying the foundation upon which international initiatives were built. Among these initiatives, international transparency standards have received a lot of attention, because they have been advertised by civil society, governments and international institutions like the World Bank as a solution to the negative outcomes predicted by the resource curse. This paper therefore assesses the validity of such initiatives, particularly of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). To do so, it will first analyze the factors that have caused resource-rich countries to perform poorly in terms of economic growth and governance; second, it will suggest a framework of policies that need to be addressed by policy makers; and finally, it will use the suggested policies as a guideline for evaluating the EITI. The present work does not claim to be exhaustive, mostly for reasons of space constraint and because of the vastness of the topic addressed. Nevertheless, it is quite unique in as much as it spans from thoughtful insights about the limits of the resource-curse theory, via concrete policy suggestions, to an evaluation of an internationally supported solution, namely the EITI. To be more precise, it will try to answer the following question: can transparency initiatives for the extractive industries and particularly the EITI tackle the negative outcomes presented by the resource-curse theory? The first chapter will therefore review the main hypothesis clustered under the resource-curse theory, using it as a theoretical starting point. The second chapter will distance itself from the resource curse theory, arguing that it fails to highlight the most important political, social and case-specific factors that are the real causes behind the negative outcomes which traditional theory attributes to the presence of natural resources. Finally, the third chapter uses these suggestions as a blueprint against which to judge the validity of transparency initiatives, specifically of the EITI. The concluding remarks will highlight the main findings of this paper, and its contribution to the current literature. 1 The methodology used in this work relies on secondary sources, academic articles, research institutes’ and NGO’s reports, as well as documents from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, documents from international standards and certification schemes, data recorded by EITI reports and by statistical offices in English and French, EITI publications and meeting minutes. Despite the initial intention to carry out primary research, the author was faced with significant resistance. The mining sector is indeed well-known for its secrecy, and to obtain interviews with key figures is a hard task for expert journalists, let alone a research student. In addition to that, the timing of this research was very unlucky, as NGOs and institutes’ personnel contacted were often out on mission or not available for interviews. Nonetheless, the author would like to thank Fred Cawood from the University of Witswatersrand South Africa, Varsha Venugopal from Revenue Watch Institute, Antonio Pedro and Merit Kitaw from UNECA, Neema Patel from Natural Resource Charter and Nick Donovan from Global Witness, who directed me towards the right documentation via private correspondence. Many thanks go also to Luke Danielson from Sustainable Development Strategies Group, Olle Ostenssen and Magnuss Ericsson from Raw Materials Group, who inspired and encouraged me during the CEMPLM annual meeting in London. Finally, I would like to thank Verity Outram from Natural Resource Charter for her support, encouragement and patience, and Dr. Deborah Potts for directing me in this task. 1.2 Changing perspectives about natural resources The impact of natural resources on development has been a controversial issue for decades. From the late 1950s through to the 1980s, when resource-rich countries in Africa gained independence, natural resources were considered an opportunity for developing countries to boost economic growth, in the manner of the United States or Australia. Primarily, scholars focused their attention on the possible economic impact of natural resources. American geographer Norton Ginsburg (1957) stated that “The possession of a sizable and diversified natural resource endowment is a major advantage to any country embarking upon a period of rapid economic growth” (p.211). W.W. Rostow, influential economist and political theorist in the US during the 1960s and 1970s, affirmed that natural resources could be a “precondition for the take-off” of a developing country (1960,p.31): natural resources exports would provide a flow of foreign exchange that counterbalanced the increase of imports, which is a recurrent characteristic of industrializing economies. To be sure, not all scholars shared this view: radical economists in particular argued that resource-dependent countries were in a position of disadvantage when trading with developed countries because of the structure of the global economy and the characteristics of international commodity markets (Singer 1950, Prebisch1950 in Rosser 2006). Despite these contrasting opinions, however, mainstream economists believed natural resources to be a blessing that could foster sustained economic growth. However, after the end of the Cold War, the discourse on natural resources changed radically, as economists and political theorists observed the development, or lack thereof, among resourcerich countries. The complex situation of mineral-exporting Sub Saharan African countries, faced 2 with a decrease of mineral commodity price, high price volatility and political instability caused by the end of the Cold War, became the focus of many studies. Scholars started to relate the poor economic performance of resource-rich countries and the numerous conflicts that had intensified in the 1990s, to their endowment of natural resources (Collier &Hoeffler 1998, Gelb 1988, Le Billon 2001, Nankani 1979, De Soysa 2000, Auty 1993, Karl 1997, Ross 2001, 2003 et al.). Of particular relevance was Auty’s formulation of the “resource curse” theory in 1993, which recognized that “not only may resource-rich countries fail to benefit from a favourable endowment, they may actually perform worse than less well-endowed countries” (p.1). Auty based his reasoning on Nankani (1979)’s finding that mineral-economies (developing countries where the mineral sector accounts for more than 8% of GDP and 40% of export earnings) grew slower and struggled to achieve the social welfare conditions of other developing countries. Auty argued that this was a counter-intuitive but actual finding whose reasons are to be found in the enclave nature of the mining: first, mining is capital intensive and therefore doesn’t employ a considerable fraction of domestic labour, second its capital usually comes from foreign companies, third it is a sector with very few local linkages, and finally, in contrast to other primary product exports, mining contributes to the national economy mainly through the tax revenues it generates. For all these reasons, an endowment of mineral resources was more of a curse than a blessing. This phenomenon has also been called the “paradox of the plenty” (Karl 1997), because it is paradoxical that countries endowed with such riches are often among the poorest and most conflict-torn of the Earth. As more studies were done on the empirical relationship between natural resources abundance and poor economic growth, more factors were added to the resource curse theory, which can now be said to comprise five main elements: poor economic performance, social and economic inequalities and poor standards of living, rent looting and corruption, a tendency to authoritarian regimes and increased likelihood of conflict (Le Billon 2004). This paper will only deal with the first four, as the EITI has been claimed to be one possible solutions to such issues. 1.3 The resource –curse theory in details This section will review the main elements of the resource-curse theory bydrawing on the existing literature. Poor economic performance and exposure to shocks Several scholars (Nankani 1979, Auty 1993) have produced quantitative evidence that natural resource endowment reduces economic growth, as resource-rich countries are empirically more likely to perform poorly in economic terms than other countries. Of particular relevance is Sachs & Warner’s study (1995), which “documented a statistically significant, inverse, and robust association between natural resource intensity and growth” (p.21). A 2002 World Bank report found that during the 1990s, countries where mining products accounted for 15-50% of total exports experienced a decrease of per capita GDP of 1.1 percent a year, and countries whose mining exports were more than 50% of their total exports saw an annual reduction of 2.3 percent 3 (Ross 2003). Out of the twenty-five most resource-dependent countries in 1995, twelve were considered by the World Bank as “highly indebted poor countries”, despite their important resource exports (Ross 2001). One of the reasons for the decrease of per capita GDP is the so called “Dutch disease”, coined by The Economist in 1977 when this phenomenon followed the discovery of gas resources in the Netherlands. Dutch disease occurs during a boom of a resourcerich country’s mining sector: higher levels of consumption and investment, allowed by the increase in resource revenues lead to a greater demand for non-tradeable goods and services; this in turn brings about an appreciation of the exchange rate and wage effects that cause a slowdown of the non-mineral sectors, usually agriculture or manufacturing, as they become less internationally competitive. Moreover, the booming sector tends to attract capital and labour, detracting from other sectors. Therefore the economic structure becomes dominated by an enclave industry, the booming mining sector, while other industries shrink (Bebbington et al. 2008, Ross 2001). In addition to that, Auty (1993) showed that dependence on mineral exports exposes the country to shocks caused by price volatility and to a series of booms and downswings in economic growth, because of the rigidity and slow adaptability of the mineral sector to the frequent changes in the market. This is even more pronounced among developing countries which had amassed debt during an economic boom because of deficit-spending, and relied on international loans when prices fell, thereby aggravating the boom-bust cyclical nature of resource-exporting economies. Social and economic inequalities and low standards of living As mentioned before, the richest countries in terms of natural resources endowment are often among the poorest of the world. Ross (2001) finds that mineral export-dependent countries have low Human Development Index (HDI) ranking: “the more the states rely on exporting minerals, the worse their standard of living is likely to be” (p.8). Le Billon (2004) argues that diamond-exporter Botswana is a good example of the lack of correlation between GDP growth and real standards of living in resource-dependent countries. Botswana is often considered a “success story”, because of its sustained economic growth, relatively good governance, mining policies and a GDP per capita of $6,872 (Le Billon 2004). However, as Ross (2001) points out, it is ranked 122nd1 in the HDI because of enduring socio-economic inequality: about 60% of its population lives on less than $2 a day (Le Billon 2004). Bond (2008) argues that such inequality is caused by the integration of developing countries into the world capitalist system, as the main beneficiaries of mineral exports are primarily “import/export firms, transport/shipping companies, plantations and large-scale commercial farmers, the mining sector, financiers ... consumers of imported goods, and politicians and bureaucrats who are tapped into the commercial/financial circuits” (p.91). Rent-looting and corruption As Rosser (2006) highlights, abundance of resource rents provides rational political actors with the opportunity to “line their own pockets by engaging in rent-seeking” (p.15). Ross (2001b) argues that during periods of economic booms, governments receive windfalls of resource rents and are 1 th This data refers to 1995. In 2011 it ranked 118 (HDR 2011) 4 therefore more prone to seize rents directly or to control their distribution, a process he calls “rent-seizing”. Robinson et al. (2002) have stressed the temporal dimension of rent-seeking, while authors like Moore (2000, 2004) and Luciani (1987) have argued that rent-seeking has a negative impact on the institutional capacity of the state, and ultimately enhances bad governance. T. Dunning (2005) investigates the political reasons behind the choice to loot resource rents rather than investing them in the economy, and finds that resource dependence is sometimes purposely pursued by political elites in order to maintain their control over the resource rents, like in the case of Mobutu’s Zaire. Ross (2011) has focused his attention on oil exporters, which he calls “rentier-states” because of their high dependence on the huge amounts of rents provided by oil exports, but often draws parallels with non-fuel mineral commodities. In his work he stresses four factors that cause revenue rents to trigger the ‘resource curse’: first, the exceptionally huge scale of oil rents, which can induce similarly large government expenditures; second, the source of revenues, which do not come from taxes but from foreign companies; third, the instability or revenues caused by commodity price volatility; and finally the secrecy of mining revenues, which breeds corruption. He concludes (2001) affirming that “rentier-states” are generally more inclined to rent-looting and corruption. Tendency to authoritarian regimes Ross (2001) argues that rentier-states are more likely to have authoritarian regimes because “authoritarian governments are more inclined to respond to the needs of the few and the wealthy, rather than the many and the poor” (p.14). For these states “it is more efficient to use some revenue to buy off those citizens likely to cause trouble, and more of it to support a powerful army and intelligence apparatus that will keep the others in line” (ib. p404). He also finds that resource-rich governments tend to spend a relatively greater part of their budget on strengthening internal security. In addition, Mick Moore (2000) affirms that natural resources seem to hinder democracy as they prevent the social and cultural changes that stimulate the emergence of democratization such as occupational specialization and better education levels. A very interesting consideration is also done by Reno (1997), who suggests that foreign partners, diplomacies and firms alike, who often have interests in the resource wealth of developing countries, ultimately prefer authoritarian regimes to liberal democracy in politically divided states, because these would otherwise risk becoming “failed states” if rebel movements tore apart political order. Finally, Wantchekon (1999), examining data from 141 countries from 1950 to 1990, found that a 1% increase in natural resources dependence, increased the likelihood of authoritarianism by almost 8%, therefore highlighting a great correlation between this two phenomena. 1.3 Challenging the resource curse Not all scholars have embraced the resource curse. For instance, Davis (1995), a strong supporter of the positive potential of mining for economic growth, has shown that measuring performance against certain economic and social measures, mineral economies performed better than non5 mineral economies between 1970 and 1992. Indeed, there isn’t consensus around the measures and datasets on which different studies are based. Snyder & Bahvani (2005) argue that it is possible to identify different “generations” of resource-curse theorists: scholars from the first generation (Auty 1993, Collier & Hoeffler 1998, De Soysa 2000) focused on quantitative research, to disclose the link between natural resources and negative outcomes; while the second generation of scholars was more interested in analyzing the circumstances that make this relationship possible (Dunning 2005, Humphreys 2005, Le Billon 2001, 2004, et al). In the last decade or so, the resource-curse theory has often been criticized because it has focused scholars’ attention on the question of whether resources have impeded or enhanced economic growth and less on the factors that intervene in this relationship (Davis & Tilton 2005). As Rosser (2006) affirms, the existence of a correlation between mining and various negative development outcomes does not necessarily have a causal nature. Similarly, Davis (2005) confirms that the current debate will continue over the possible causal routes by which mining may impede development (p.237). Interestingly, even classic resource-curse theorists seem to realize the limits of this approach: Auty admits that the resource curse “is not an iron law” (Le Billon 2001) and Collier & Hoeffler (2005) state that resource rents are not intrinsically a curse, as they hold the possibility for development, which will take place according to “conditioning circumstances”. This literature review shows that scholars are still debating the possible existence of a ‘curse’, a mathematical equation, a causal relation between natural-resource endowment and negative outcomes. This paper argues that the resource curse, taken in its orthodox form, is a misleading theoretical framework: it led scholars to consider all the variables that play a role in the relationship between resource abundance and negative outcomes, as determined by the mere presence of natural resources. This faulty approach is likely to derive from reliance upon statistical data. Quantitative research and the deduction of ‘iron laws’ from statistical data, can provide a biased interpretation of the correlation between such data: even if two elements are linked by a correlation, this is not necessarily a causal relationship, nor does it exclude the existence of third factors being the real influencing variables. The narrowness of statistical evidence is poignantly expressed by the ‘ice-cream metaphor’: the simultaneous statistical increase of ice cream consumption and the number of sunburns does not mean that they are one the cause of the other, rather, they are both caused by changes in the seasons and in temperature (Rosser 2006). The next chapter will therefore stress the ambiguity of the resource curse and analyze a number of historical, political, sociological and human factors, which are arguably the variables upon which depend the negative outcomes of endowment of resources. The purpose of the analysis is to suggest policies attaining to the four relevant dimensions of the resource curse highlighted before. Such policies will be used in chapter three as a blueprint to judge the validity of the EITI. 6 Chapter 2 – Third factors and policy suggestions As argued at the end of the previous chapter, the negative outcomes of the resource curse are likely brought about by a variety of third factors and mediating circumstances. This is a poignant observation for policy makers, as it allows them to shift their attention from addressing the presence of natural resources as a problem, to focusing on the factors that, if positively influenced, can ‘break the curse’. The present chapter will suggest and analyze some mediating circumstances and factors that can be argued to be the real causes of the negative outcomes recorded by the resource-curse theorists. This analysis will be carried out for each of the elements comprised by the resource-curse theory and discussed in chapter 1. It will be based on the existing literature that, to varying degrees, criticizes the limits of the resource curse, and it will build upon it, using data from the IMF, the WB, the UNDP and African Union that regard fuel and non-fuel mineral commodities in Sub-Saharan Africa primarily. The policy suggestions that will emerge will then be used in the third chapter to test the validity of current certification schemes and international standards for the extractive industries. 2.1 New trends in economic growth, a turnabout? The beginning of the new century has brought about new trends that contest the existence of a curse in the correlation between presence of natural resources and economic performance. Probably the most interesting data is that GDP per-capita growth has been higher in resource exporters than in other Sub-Saharan countries (International Monetary Fund 2012). Figure 1 shows that the highest levels of growth have been achieved by countries that are fiscally dependent on resource rents (when resource rents are more than one-fifth of budgetary revenues – IMF 2012), followed by significant exporters of natural resources (if such exports exceed onequarter of total exports –IMF 2012). 7 This statistical evidence seems to support those scholars like Davis, who are convinced of the positive impact that natural resources can have on economic growth. According to the International Monetary Fund (2012), the two factors that have influenced such an outstanding economic growth are the discovery of new resources in Sub-Saharan countries such as Angola, Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania, and an increase in mineral commodity prices. Figure 2 (see above) shows that mineral and petroleum commodity prices not only increased significantly between 1996 and 2011 (they tripled and doubled respectively), but that their increase was greater than any increase of other commodity prices. This trend peaked in the first half of 2008, after which it dropped abruptly because of the effects of the international financial crisis. Prices have though started to increase again and were even higher in 2008 than in 2008. The character of continuity of this increase has apparantly persuaded market observers that metal prices are currently at the beginning of a super-cycle: defined by Heap (2005: 1–2 in ECA 2012) as a “prolonged (decades or more) trend rise in real commodity prices”, a super-cycle is demandrelated and it is driven by the “urbanization and industrialization of a major economy” (ib.). China is evidently the lynchpin of the global economic growth of the last decade. Despite being the first producer of Rare Earths concentrate, tungsten, mercury, tin, lead and manganese(ECA 2012), and among the top five producers of coal (World Coal Association 2012), China’s need for raw materials is not satisfied by its domestic production. Its contribution to world industrial production between 1995 and 2005 doubled from 6% to 12% (ECA 2012) and as a consequence its demand for metals increased exponentially, as Table 1 shows. China doubled its global share of aluminium, copper and zinc, tripled that for lead, quadrupled that for nickel, and tripled its imports of iron-ore. 8 Table 1: Chinese influence on world demand for refined metals demand, 2000-2007 Refined use, 2007 Share of China, 2007 (per cent) Share of China, 2000 (per cent) Aluminium (kt) 12,267 32.5 13.0 Copper (kt) 4,800 26.2 11.8 Zinc (kt) 3,750 32.1 14.9 Lead (kt) 2,548 30.6 10.1 Nickel (kt) 345 24.9 6.0 Tin (kt) 150 39.9 18.6 Crude steel (Mt) 437 32.3 16.3 48.2 15.6 Iron-ore 379 seaborne imports (Mt) kt = thousand tons ; Mt = Million tons Source: Ericsson (2009) citing Chinese statistics and metal forecasting, Macquarie Commodities Research, Macquarie Capital Securities (2008) (in ECA 2012) An important consequence of increased demand and commodity prices surge is the significant rise of foreign direct investment in Africa, as figure 3 shows .This increase in FDI is particularly important for governments of resource-rich countries, because it provides them with a comparative advantage, which, if well managed, could arguably sustain such levels of growth. Figure 3: FDI inflows to Africa, 1990-2007 (billions of dollars) (Source: AMV 2009) The key factor that has induced a positive economic growth is then the demand of industrializing countries and the subsequent surge of prices. What policies can governments implement to harness the potential of this boom, averting the likelihood of price volatility and Dutch disease? 9 First, reserve funds can be created, that would provide a “cushion effect” (IMF 2012) in times of price drops and counterbalance the boom-bust fiscal cycles caused by price volatility, such as have been implemented in Kazakhstan and Botswana. Second, offshore “stabilization” or “future” funds, where revenues are kept to be later invested in investment instruments, may help contrast the appreciative effect on domestic currency of the Dutch disease and may provide a margin of profit on revenues. These sort of funds are quite popular and have been implemented in Abu Dhabi (UAE), Norway, Kuwait and Chile among other countries (Bauer 2011). Alternatively, Ross (2011), criticizing the ease with which politicians plundered stabilization funds, suggests the use of loans granted by the WB or IMF to encourage countercyclical borrowing: governments would have to set aside the proceeding of a fixed amount of resource exports, so that the repayment of the loan would be independent from political decisions. Arguably, another important policy for fighting the effects of Dutch disease is investment in domestic infrastructure. Great care must be taken by policy makers to avoid “white elephants”, that is, unfeasible and unsustainable projects. In addition, domestic institutions should encourage legal trade and commercial relations with industrializing economies, while at the same time provide training for governmental personnel and local governments to increase their negotiating skills and achieve fairer contracts with mining companies. Finally, in order to benefit from the competitiveness caused by the surge in demand, mining rights should be awarded through open and competitive bidding, without giving priority to one company or one foreign government over others, while the transparency of the bidding should be monitored from an external body. 2.2 Mediation of social, historical and political factors in the relationship between natural resources, poverty and inequality Resource curse theorists claim that an endowment of natural resources brings about poverty and greater inequalities. This section refuses this argument and suggests that the responsibility for inequality and poverty should lies with an array of historical, sociological and structural factors that go beyond the presence of natural resources. We will keep up the example of Botswana, started in section 1.2. As mentioned before, Botswana is considered an example of how resourcerich countries are plagued with inequalities and poverty. It is true that Botswana’s ranking in the Human Development Index has decreased drastically between 1991 and 2002 and is still very low compared to its per capita GDP level (it ranked 118th in 2011); nevertheless, in this specific case, HDI ranking and per capita income should be analyzed as separate elements. On one hand, Botswana’s surprisingly high levels of per capita GDP are attributable to the direct effect of diamond exploitation on economic growth; on the other hand, Botswana’s level of inequality and standard of living don’t come as a surprise if they are compared to other countries in its region, rather than countries with its per capita GDP level. Figure 4 shows clearly that Botswana’s HDI trend has always been above that of Sub-Saharan Africa and even equal or above the medium human development trend. This means that, compared to the countries of its own region Botswana performs better in terms of human development. Affirming that it performs worse than countries with its GDP per capita level, as for instance does Ross (2001), is an unfair comparison, because it implies comparing a Sub-Saharan country like Botswana with countries such as Czech 10 Republic, Hungary, Romania, Argentina, Turkey etc. 2. Inequalities and poverty don’t come as a result of exploitation of diamonds, which actually provides the country with an astonishing economic performance when compared to its neighboring states, rather, they are the outcome of a series of historical, political and sociological factors that make Botswana very different from, for instance, Eastern European countries. Figure 4: Human Development Index: trends 1980-present (Source: HDR Statistics website) What are the factors then that have had a direct influence on Botswana’s inequalities and relative poverty and that should be addressed to understand its low HDI despite high per capita GDP? First, let us consider an important social factor: the massive spread of HIV/AIDS in this country. This disease exploded in Botswana to the extent that by 2002 almost 40% of the population had been affected and life expectancy had dropped below 40 years (Good 2005). President Mogae had publicly affirmed that “We saw the thing as an issue of survival. We had the fear of a nation simply becoming extinct” (The Sunday Independent,July 20, 2003 in Good 2005). The impact that this disease has had on poverty becomes clear in light of the fact that 60% of all children between 10 and 14 were expected to be orphaned by AIDS by 2015 (Good 2005). When a whole country is faced with a terrible decimation of its work force, how could the remnant population not be affected by poor standards of living? Second, historically Botswana has had terrible difficulties in trying to integrate its ethnic minorities, which account for around 30% of the population: discriminatory practices and even laws against the Basarwa/San, the Wayei and other tribes have prevailed for decades (Good 2005). How could there not be inequalities when 30% of the population is discriminated upon and poorly protected by law? Finally, a political factor: the shrinking of the agricultural sector and the lack of development of the industrial sector (both of which, being generally labour intensive, can provide concrete poverty relief), were not purely effects of Dutch disease, rather, as Good (2005) shows, they were the outcome of planned political decisions, taken by the political elite to maintain their power over diamond exports. From the previous analysis, it is clear that inequalities and poverty in resource-rich countries are caused by a number of social, historical and political factors that tend to be very country-specific. 2 Upper Middle Income Countries list, World Bank 2012 11 However, there is an array of policies that can try to tackle general social problems recorded in Sub-Saharan resource-dependent countries. First, the population should be offered accessible education and specific training to develop long-term skills related to the booming sector, for instance through the creation of secondary-school diplomas and university degrees that can foster specialization and therefore build human capital in the country. Second, a fundamental policy to fight poverty and spread the benefits from mining to a greater share of the population, is the creation of upstream, downstream and side-linkages. This can stimulate the industrialization of the supplying and manufacturing sectors, and help fight unemployment. To achieve this, policy makers should offer incentives to companies to build a network of local suppliers and sell a certain percentage of their row production to local manufacturers (see for example Canadian regulations that oblige BHP Billiton to sell 10% of Ekati mine’s diamond production to local cutters). In addition, governmental policies should include diversification of the economy to gain a degree of independence from the extractive sector. Particularly, support should be given to labor-intensive sectors like agriculture, which can have a double positive impact, first by increasing food production and second by tackling unemployment. Moreover, adequate policies should be conceived to tackle country-specific social problems, usually related to the spread of diseases like AIDS or to the aftermaths of conflict, with the support of international funding organizations. Finally, the practice of “barter contracts” could help bring concrete ameliorations to the life of the population. These contracts provide for companies to pay governments on the grounds of investment in infrastructure projects, such as roads, railways and power plants. An attentive scrutiny of the companies’ offers and of the feasibility of the project is essential for this policy to bring real benefits to the population. 2.3 The role of taxation and state formation to achieve democracy and transparency This section will discuss two elements of the resource curse, the tendency towards authoritarianism and the propensity of rent-looting and corruption. It will argue that there is a correlation between these negative outcomes and the presence of natural resources, but that such correlation is not causal. The causal variables need to be looked for in the lack of adequate fiscal regimes in resource-dependent countries and in the gap of accountability between state and citizens. This preposition will be analyzed from an historical perspective, looking at the process of state formation in tax-states and in resource-dependent states. This section draws from Ross and Moore, but elaborates on their thoughts and adds to them. To begin with, let us consider Ross’ (2005) suggestion that privatization of the resource sector might boost democracy because it would make it harder for governments to hide their revenues, as they can easily do when there is a state monopoly on the management of resources (his argument is on oil-exporters, but it can be applied to any heavily rent-dependent state). He argues that changing the source of revenues, from a public company to a number of private companies, could enhance transparency. Nevertheless he is well aware that, unless private companies are publicly listed on stock exchanges and truly committed to transparency, there might not be much 12 change in terms of rent-looting and corruption. His reasoning holds water as far as it goes, but it seems to us that Moore’s (2000) argument tackles this issue more convincingly. He argues that as resource-dependent states rely upon massive amounts of “unearned income”, to the extent that the state apparatus didn’t need to put in organizational and political effort to acquire a rent (p.389), governments have less incentives to bargain with their citizens, and to engage in a democratic discourse with them about the expenditure of revenues. Therefore, one first point that this section would like to raise is that the real problem is not whether revenues derive from private or public companies, but the fact that state income derives almost exclusively from miningrelated activities and not from the bulk of the population. This creates a gap between citizens and the government not just in terms of accountability, but in terms of representation. Moore (2001) stresses that governments have the luxury to “ignore” their citizens, as their administration can exist notwithstanding the capacity of citizens to pay taxes. We like to think that the relationship between the state and its supporter is akin to a show, acted between governmental officials and private/national companies, whereas citizens are relegated to the role of powerless spectators. In a country where citizens have no bargaining power with the government, and are only spectators of its decisions, it becomes evident that democracy can be nothing but a pipe-dream. The importance of tax regimes to induce a process of mutual exchange of benefits between state and citizens, in terms of democratic representation and the creation of a framework that might stimulate economic and social development is not a new argument. It was discussed probably for the first time by the Cameralists. They were political and economic theorists that lived in 17thcentury German princedoms, and who realized that the state had all interests to promote the economic and social wealth of its subjects, because the greater their wealth, the higher their capacity to be taxed. Through taxes, argued the Cameralists, a state could raise a permanent army and confirm its political and military power. Therefore, the sovereign should do all in its power to promote a framework of individual freedoms that would enhance subjects’ capacity to create economic wealth. A successful example of implementation of this theory was Fredrik Wilhelm I’s Prussia, which he transformed “into the most formidable [18th-century] military power in Europe” (Armour 2012 p.34). Prussia was an example of how society could prosper and state administration modernise, when an enlightened sovereign would devout itself to the welfare of its people, being rewarded by a constant and reliable flow of taxes. This scenario can still be considered applicable today if we replace the “enlightened sovereign” with a democratic government, held accountable to its citizens, and which provides them with services. Modern democracy can be argued to be the result of historical processes that took place in modern Europe and Northern America. British history above all shows us the deep correlation that runs between taxation and democratic representation: tracing back to the Magna Charta baron’s efforts to have a voice in the decisions of the king as a reward for their military and political support this relationship spans over the centuries to the American colonists’ requests to be granted representation in Parliament as a reward for their taxes, embodied in the popular slogan “no taxation without representation”. This correlation has deep roots in European history. In the 19th century, the importance of taxation was the subject of the political philosophy called fiscal sociology. Schumpeter (1918), who was the main exponent of fiscal sociology, recognized the importance of fiscal regimes and their interaction with the unwinding of European political history. 13 In his words: “…the budget is the skeleton of the state stripped of all misleading ideologies [quoting Goldscheid]”, “the fiscal history of a people is above all an essential part of its general history” and “..our people have become what they are under the fiscal pressure of the state.” (Schumpeter, 1991 (1918) p.100-1 in Moore 2000). This last quote is of paramount importance for our present discussion because it implies that Western democracies are the outcome of their unique fiscal history, among other factors. Another factor needs to be considered. Both Moore and Karl (1997) highlight that the need to rely upon taxes for income has induced European states first, to form an efficient, honest and reliable bureaucratic apparatus, as in the case of Prussia, second, to have a real control on the territory and a better knowledge of the population (the very idea of census indeed came as an outcome of taxation). Moore therefore concludes that taxation has induced a process of optimization of the state bureaucratic apparatus and has built institutional capacities that have been expressed through good governance. These elements are very important because they can account for an historical explanation to why developed resourcerich countries have limited levels of corruption and rent-looting (see Norway, Canada etc.). This triple, intertwined development of democracy-taxation-efficient bureaucratic apparatus is the unique result of European and more generally Western history. Why didn’t this phenomenon take place in Sub-Saharan African countries? Blaming the presence of natural resources for corruption and lack of democracy, as some theorists of the resource curse do, seems to be a feeble and shortsighted excuse. It is more likely that the causes be found in the legacy left by colonialism; in the opaque and conflicting process of decolonization; in the hesitant, dubious process of state formation, usually influenced by internal conflict and the global power-play of the Cold War; in the institutional vacuum left after colonial state apparatus fled the newly-independent states and so on and so forth. All these issues will not be discussed here, due to space constraint, but they should be the subject of more research, as they might shed light on the real reasons for lack of democracy in developing countries. The issues addressed so far have amply shown that lack of democracy and high levels of corruption in resource-dependent countries are attributable to the process of state formation, the lack of a fiscal regime and engagement of citizens in budgetary decisions, among other factors. What policies can be devised to tackle these issues? Let us first address policies to increase transparency. One policy promoted by many international initiatives, as will be discussed in the next chapter, is to disclose the payments made by companies to governments and the payments received by governments from companies. Publishing them though is not enough. First, there must be a compulsory mechanism to make sure that the discrepancies among these data may with time tally, which means that a monitoring body needs to have enforcing powers to first investigate, and then punish who is to blame for the discrepancies. Moreover, the disclosure of payments should provide the grounds upon which governments can develop the expertise required to eventually disclose their budget expenditures. All steps of resource-revenues collection, distribution and allocation should be disclosed, to really allow civil society and legislators to keep the government accountable. Strict regulations should at that point be implemented and punishment provided for those individuals and/or agencies which line their pockets with revenues. Moreover, training should be provided to governmental personnel to 14 strengthen their skills and emphasize the slowdown that corruption causes to a national economy. A different strategy has been implemented in Alaska to assure that administration doesn’t loot rents and at the same time to provide a greater spread of benefits: rents are directly distributed to citizens, through individual/family bank transfers. This could have positive or negative effects, according to the level of management capacities and likelihood of the community to commit what it receives into savings. In addition, disclosed data should be made available to the population, adequately to the prevailing levels of literacy and to the possibility of citizens to use different sources of information. Therefore, if the majority of the population does not have access to internet, reports should be disclosed in a way that is accessible for everyone. Finally, policies need to be created also in importing countries as well, to regulate the behavior of extractive companies, so that they don’t fall in the traps set by corrupted governmental officials or even worse, induce corruption to obtain more incentives for investment through their own attempts at corruption. For what concerns accountability and democracy, a more efficient bureaucracy should be trained, that can be present on the entire national territory and have an informed knowledge of its own population. Investment in state capacity building is required, and one way is through training provided by international consultancy such as Revenue Watch Institute. School could be a channel to empower the young population, to educate it to request more of their governments and demand accountability. In addition, fiscal regimes need to be enhanced, taxation must be systematized and become population-based rather than dependent on resource-rents. A practical police implemented so far in this sense was the Sustainable Budget Index, operating in Botswana since 1994, which provides that resource revenues be used only to finance investments and stabilization funds, whereas ‘non-investment’ spending is financed exclusively via non-resource revenues. 15 Chapter 3 – Transparency initiatives for the extractive industries – the EITI This chapter discusses the role of transparency initiatives for the extractive industries, which have been implemented in recent years to tackle corruption and lack of accountability in the fuel and mining sectors of resource-rich countries. The main focus is on the Extractive Industries transparency Initiative (EITI), which has been extolled as a solution for promoting economic growth, social development and good governance. For instance, Dr. Shekou M Sesay, Minister of Presidential Affairs in Sierra Leone stated that “‘. . . the EITI is a laudable idea, which if implemented to the spirit and letter will ensure prudent management of the dividends from mining and go a long way to alleviate extreme poverty among [our] people” (Hilson&Maconachie 2008 p.81). Other supporters have affirmed that “the EITI can change the behaviour of oil exporters without conditionality or force”, “the EITI provides a means to ensure that the citizens of petro-states reap the benefits of trade in oil” (Aaronson 2008), and that it can increase accountability and “help governments secure a fair share of companies’ income” (Wire Dusseldorf 2011). More generally, EITI’s supporters believe that, if followed conscientiously, this initiative can enhance economic performance, reduce poverty, fight corruption and promote government accountability. In order to assess the validity of EITI supporters’ claims, the present chapter will verify to what extent the EITI Requirements comprised in the EITI Rules, 2011 edition apply the policies suggested at the end of each paragraph in chapter 2. These policies, being the result of the study of the mediating variables that influence the resource curse carried out in chapter 2, provide a framework of analysis that will be used to test the degree of success of this initiative (for the complete framework please see Appendix 2). The focus of this analysis will be on policies to promote transparency and accountability, as it is the argument of this paper that EITI and other international transparency initiatives are not capable of addressing the problems induced by the resource curse with regard to poor economic performance, poverty and social inequality. Nevertheless, this chapter includes a brief analysis of the possible indirect effects that EITI can have on economic growth and poverty. Transparency and accountability-enhancing policies are summarized in Table 2 and Table 3 respectively and will be the core of a comparative analysis with EITI’s objectives, criteria and requirements (for the full list, see Appendices 3 and 4). 3.1 Transparency initiatives for the extractive industries The EITI is one of several international transparency initiatives for the extractive industries that have flourished in recent years. Admittedly, most of these target importing countries’ governments and work in their home country (such as Transparency International and Oxfam America). Others are broader initiatives, aimed at finding solutions for an array of problems of resource-rich countries, including transparency and accountability, such as the Natural Resource Charter, the OECD Due Diligence Guidance and the ICMM Good Practice Guide. An international initiative which is closer in scope to the EITI is Publish What You Pay campaign (PWYP). Launched 16 in 2002 by a coalition of NGOs, it came as a reaction of the international community to the disclosure of mismanagement and embezzlement of oil and mining revenues in several African states and the degree of corruption and bribing of international companies pinpointed by reports from Global Witness (GW) such as “A crude awakening”. Among its founding members are GW, Open Society Institute, Oxfam GB, Save the Children UK and Transparency International UK, soon to be joined by other important NGOs such as Human Rights Watch, Partnership Africa Canada and a number of groups from resource-exporting countries. Today, it counts hundreds of NGOs over 70 countries, whose objectives are to promote transparency of company payments (‘publish what you pay’) and government revenues (‘publish what you earn’); to ensure transparency of government expenditure, “as an essential way to addressing the poverty, corruption and autocracy that too often plague resource rich countries” (PWYP 2011); and finally to achieve transparency of contracts and licensing procedures, which should be aligned with best international practice. PWYP is not a standard, but an international campaign carried out by NGOs in their domestic countries. It therefore supports and relies upon EITI for a structured mechanism of disclosure. Nevertheless, it provides an interesting framework of policies: indeed, unlike EITI, it stresses the importance of disclosure of government expenditures and plies for a stricter control of the oil and mining industries, mainly through the public disclosure of licensing procedures and contracts. 3.2 Case study – the EITI The EITI “in a nutshell, is a globally developed standard that promotes revenue transparency at the local level” (EITI website). Proposed by UK former Prime Minister Tony Blair in 2002 at the World Summit for Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, it received financial support from the UK Government and the World Bank in 2003. During the same year, the UK government launched pilot projects in Nigeria and Kazakhstan, counting on the participation and support of a number of extractive and importing countries, companies and civil society organizations. The actual initiative as a global framework for extractive industries, took off in 2005-2006, when the EITI criteria were written, the EITI International Advisory Group formed and the validation mechanism for compliant countries set in motion. The objective of the EITI, as stated in its Association article n.2, is: “to make the EITI Principles and Criteria (...) the internationally accepted standard for transparency in the oil, gas and mining sectors, recognising that strengthened transparency of natural resource revenues can reduce corruption, and the revenue from extractive industries can transform economies, reduce poverty, and raise the living standards of entire populations in resource-rich countries.” (EITI website) In 2011, the EITI governance was better defined, as the EITI Board and International Secretariat were established. The EITI is implemented in 36 countries as of August 2012, 14 of which are compliant and 22 candidates. The first step for a country to be involved in EITI is to sign up for Candidate status, which can be obtained by meeting five requirements, among which the creation of a domestic multi-stakeholder group (MSG) which comprises representatives from companies and civil society and that oversees the implementation of the entire process. Within eighteen months, countries need to publish their first report, disclosing 17 data related to the taxes paid by companies and the revenues received by governments. The data of the report need to be assessed by a reconciler, an organization appointed by the MSG, which must ensure that company and government data reconcile, must address and possibly explain discrepancies, and suggest solutions to overcome them. Within two and a half year, the Candidate state needs to complete a Validation process, which consists of an evaluation from an independent consultant, usually appointed by the EITI Board, which makes sure that all requirements have been met and that the country is progressing towards the EITI objectives. Finally, Compliant states need to adhere to all requirements over time, otherwise the Board can require a new validation process or delist the country from EITI. For more details on phase-tophase requirements please see Appendix 3. The following paragraphs will provide an analysis of EITI’s most important requirements, on the grounds of the policies suggested in chapter 2, as already mentioned. EITI and transparency Promoting transparency in resource-rich countries is the fundamental purpose of EITI. This paragraph will assess to what extent EITI complies with the policies highlighted in chapter 2 to promote transparency. Table 2: Policies suggested in chapter 2 to promote transparency Suggested policy Specific purpose of the policy 1. Disclosure of data regarding payments made by companies to governments and payments received by governments from companies (collection level) 2. Auditing by an independent body with enforcing power to assess the quality of disclosure, investigate discrepancies and punish wrongdoers 3. Provision of fines and punishment for corrupted officials and companies Expose corruption through discrepancies in data 4. Develop expertise and skills of governmental officials at all bureaucratic levels, increase their funding so that they may carry out informed disclosures 5. A realistic assessment of the potential of disclosed data to be spread, also considering the characteristics of the population, and implementation of alternative ways of Increase the negotiating skills of governmental officials to acquire more independence from companies, and provide a smooth process of disclosure Expand the outreach of the initiative to the greatest number of citizens Increase enforceability in order to promote effectiveness of policies Mandatory anti-corruption domestic laws both in producing and importing countries 18 publishing data if internet is not accessible by the majority of the population Policy n.1 and the creation of a final report that comprises disclosed data are at the basis of EITI transparency mechanism and are provided for by the Preparation Requirements (see Appendix 4). The process of disclosure has had varying levels of success from country to country. In some countries, the great discrepancies found by the reconciler between payments and revenues have been made up for. A positive example of implementation is Nigeria, whose 2005 report identified a discrepancy of approximately $560 million owed by companies. By ‘closing the loopholes’ highlighted by the report, the country now saves $1 billion a year (Meyer 2011). On the other hand, reports are not always useful. For instance, Fair Links (2012), in character of auditor of the 2008-2009 DRC EITI report, affirms that the declarations of the State on one side, and of companies on the other, have shown significant anomalies that have made impossible an informed assessment of the real payments made by mining companies. Substantial anomalies have emerged from a series of other reports. Gillies (2011) for instance notices some “things that make you go ‘hmmm’” in Cameroon’s 2006-2008 reports: first, the government had to pay royalties to the companies, rather than the other way round; second, the mining companies’ payments were reported to reduce in that period while government’s receipts showed an increase of incoming revenues; surprisingly, figures match in 2008. A point that emerges from these examples is therefore the importance of reports’ quality, which depends on the trustworthiness of the data collection process. This can be biased in a number of occasions: if not all companies or all governmental agencies disclose their data, or if they don’t follow a proper product-disaggregation model to pinpoint the revenues coming from each good, if governmental agencies are not fully aware of the amount of revenues that they receive and that they are supposed to distribute or if they do not have the funding and the enforcing power to carry out investigation regarding the discrepancies highlighted in the report. This leads us to policy n.4 –develop expertise and funding of governmental officials to increase their independence from companies and to provide a smooth and efficient process of disclosure. EITI does not really tackle this issue, as it deals with training and funding only in regard to civil society. Requirement 6 indeed provides “that civil society is fully, independently, actively and effectively engaged in the process”, that governments must “take steps to ensure that civil society and company representatives are able to adequately prepare for full and active participation” and that it must address “potential capacity constraints affecting civil society participation relating to the EITI, whether undertaken by government, civil society or companies” (EITI Rules 2011 p.19). However, it is arguable that this is not enough. EITI, being born as a coalition of NGOs primarily, like PWYP, continuously stresses the role and importance of civil society’s engagement in the process, but often seems to overlook the fundamental role that an informed and capable administration can play in implementing EITI’s objectives. Therefore, EITI should improve its requirement 6, by adding that not just civil society, but also administrative personnel need adequate training against constraints and pressure that are usually put upon them by 19 multinational corporations, and to increase their knowledge of the mining sector, before the country can engage in the EITI process. However, an improvement has already taken place in as much as the 2011 edition of EITI Rules provides a new sign-up requirement, namely requirement 5, which demands the MSG to be created prior to the candidature of the country, so that it can be prepared to face the challenges of EITI implementation and doesn’t cause delays on the publication of reports. This has the positive effect of forcing the country to address these issues as a starting point for the candidature to EITI, so that reports’ quality and timeliness be assured. Regarding policy n.5, the assessment of the potential of the disclosure report to reach the greatest number of citizens, EITI provides in Requirement 18 that “the EITI Report [must be] made public… widely disseminated and openly discussed by a broad range of stakeholders” (EITI 2011, p.27). Moreover, it stresses the need of accessibility, comprehensiveness and comprehensibility of the report, which must be published online, distributed in hard copies to key stakeholders and advertised in public events. If the purpose of this policy is to simply make available the report to a number of stakeholders, then it can be argued that requirement 18 provides a comprehensive blueprint, upon which individual governments can build. However, if the purpose of the diffusion of disclosed data about the extractive industries is to create awareness among the country’s population of the importance of their natural resources and of the efforts that the government, together with the initiative, is implementing to promote a fairer distribution of wealth, then it seems that a more pervasive policy should be implemented. One possibility could be to make copies of the report available to local schools, churches and other centres of cultural aggregation, in which case it is more likely that the report may “contribute to public debate”. For what concerns policies n.2 and n.3, the main concept behind them is whether the international initiative (be it EITI or PWYP) has mandatory force inside domestic legislation or not. It can be easily argued indeed that to reach the highest levels of compliance and effectiveness, the auditing body or the initiative’s board that appoints it, should have enforcing powers, in order to be able to carry out investigation on the causes of discrepancy, provide fines and punishment, and have prosecuting power against wrongdoers. This implies that international standards would be integrated in domestic legislation and take up a mandatory approach. Such position is supported by PWYP (Le Billon 2006-2007). On the other hand, the EITI is based on a voluntary approach: it is true that “governments should review the legal framework to identify any potential obstacles to EITI implementation” but at the same time “the EITI should fit comfortably within the legal framework alongside fiscal control mechanisms (…) [and] should not involve extraordinary demands on the government” (Requirement 5, EITI 2011 p. 17). Interestingly though, the Rules keep the opportunity open “to incorporate EITI requirements within national legislation or regulation” when “it may be necessary” (ib.). Aimed at providing candidate countries with independence and freedom to implement the objectives following their own preferences, this flexible approach has pros and cons. It surely attracts more participants, particularly in terms of companies, as most businesses have resisted the disclosure advocated by PWYP, on the grounds of contractual confidentiality and competition (Le Billon 2006-2007). Nevertheless, arguably this is counterproductive because it allows countries to adhere to EITI only as a façade-mechanism to cleanse their reputation. The implementation of EITI has indeed been associated with a 20 reputational boost for notoriously corrupt countries like Nigeria: “The adoption of the EITI underscored Nigeria’s determination to make a clean break with the past by fighting corruption and improving governance… The credibility boost facilitated Nigeria’s debt cancellation by the Paris Club and lifted its profile in the eyes of investors” stated Nigeria’s former minister of finance in 2008 (Meyer 2011). These positive effects on countries’ reputation are used by EITI as an incentive to increase countries’ participation to the initiative: “benefits for implementing countries include an improved investment climate by providing a clear signal to investors and international financial institutions that the government is committed to greater transparency” (EITI website). EITI and accountability The question that the international community should ask is whether the improved reputation of EITI compliant states is justified by actual improvements in transparency and accountability. In fact, it is not clear how EITI intends to address the issue of accountability. Table 3 summarizes the policies suggested in the previous chapter regarding accountability. Table 3: Policies suggested in chapter 2 to promote accountability Suggested policy 6. Disclosure of data regarding distribution and allocation of rents Specific purpose of the policy Monitor budget expenditures and destinations of resource revenues to hold governmental agencies accountable 7. Reorganization of the taxation system Enhance the administrative control of the central/regional governments on the territory 8. Training of state bureaucracy and Enhance expertise and skills of administrative investment in capacity building personnel 9. Training of domestic monitoring bodies, for Enhance the role of legislators in mediating instance parliaments, by international between the citizens and the government consultancy like Revenue Watch Institute 10. Insert civic education in schools Empower citizens, specially the youth, and educate them to require more of their own governments Of the five policies suggested (6-10) to promote accountability, EITI arguably fails to address any. It does not deal with school-level education (n.10,) or with training for state administration (n.8), as its main focus is on empowering civil society. Moreover, as it tries to have the minimum possible impact on state legislation and regulation, it does not enhance the taxation system (n.7) (although this could be argued to go beyond its purpose, as it is a state function that is not related to the extractive industries, despite being at the core of accountability and representation). In addition, it does not empower parliaments as possible mediators between the interests of the state and the grievances of the population over mining-related issues (n.9), first because it arguably regards civil society as the rightful representative of the population, second because as already mentioned, it 21 does not provide compulsory changes in the legislation. On top of this, EITI seems to overlook the importance of the disclosure of data regarding distribution and allocation of rents (n.6) as a means to monitor corruption in budgetary expenditures. This is a significant policy challenge that needs to be addressed, as corruption doesn’t take place merely during transactions between companies and government, but also during the allocation of revenues to different governmental agencies. Ultimately, what matters is the management of revenues and their expenditures, as this determines the amount of money that will reach the poor and needy. This fundamental aspect has been provided for in the objectives of PWYP and in the action plan of Oxfam America: the latter has recently released a video stressing the number of intermediaries that the oil industry in particular has, and the “right to know” of people living in oil-exporting countries “where does the many go?” (PWYP 2012). In addition to what previously said, an important question rises from an analysis of EITI: how can non-democratic governments enhance accountability through the EITI? Hilson and Maconachie (2008) indeed highlight that “the majority of Africa’s EITI signatories … [are] countries with long histories of corruption, civil violence, and/or dictatorships. Examples include Chad, Equatorial Guinea, and Sierra Leone.” (p.63). They repeatedly ask how EITI intends to provide greater accountability, if such countries, despite being recognized as compliant, have evidently neither changed their political structure, nor have they reduced in any way the phenomenon of ‘spoil politics’ whereby elites loot and distribute resources to aliment political patronage. This disillusionment seems to be shared even by EITI stakeholders. In a survey carried out by Revenue Watch Institute (in Dykstra 2011), it emerges that the two main reasons why participants joined EITI are to “increase transparency through publication of company payments and government revenues” and to “increase accountability of the government for extractive revenues”. When asked if they thought EITI actually provided participants with a framework for the implementation of these objectives, respondents were divided as it was not clear to them the link between EITI and accountability. One respondent even stated “Accountability is not actually on the EITI agenda” (p.5). Interestingly, when asked how accountability could become part of the EITI process, the majority answered by increasing government’s support for the implementation of EITI and specifically, they called for EITI “to be more integrated in government regulation of the sector and for oversight bodies such as parliament and the supreme audit institution to be more engaged in the process” (ib.) This is a very interesting result, because it confirms the necessity of greater involvement of legislating bodies, as highlighted by policy n.9, and of a greater degree of enforceability of the standard, as argued by policies n.2 and n.3. EITI and economic growth As mentioned before, EITI’s supporters argue that a thorough implementation of EITI can bring about an improvement of resource-rich countries’ economic performance. Despite these claims, none of the policies highlighted in chapter 2 for withstanding Dutch disease, harnessing the positive results of booming mineral-commodity demand, and promoting trade with industrializing countries seems to be among the EITI Requirements. Principle 7 of EITI affirms that an “environment for domestic and foreign investment” can be enhanced by transparency, and therefore it can be argued that it suggests an indirect effect that EITI might have on the economy of resource-rich countries. McDowell (2009), Board member of EITI, confirms this indirect effect 22 and states that EITI, by improving good governance, can contribute to a “better investment climate”. However, Hilson & Maconachie (2008) argue that good governance and transparency are not needed to attract investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: companies have never restrained from investing in Chad and Nigeria, among the more corrupt states in the world, nor did wide-spread conflict discourage them from exporting diamonds and other resources from Sierra Leone and DRC. This topic needs further discussion by EITI stakeholders, in order to prove EITI’s positive impact on economic performance. EITI, poverty and inequality Again, this analysis finds no adherence between EITI’s rules and the policies suggested in chapter 2 to tackle inequality and poverty (for a summary of the relevant policies please refer to Appendix 2). Nevertheless, it may be argued that EITI does have some indirect impact on poverty-reduction, through its empowerment of civil society stakeholders. The domestic NGOs that are part of the Multi-stakeholder Group in each EITI country address the problems of the poor and the disadvantaged daily, and advocate the rights of those affected by mining-related issues. In so far as the EITI meetings are a forum for the debate of such issues, and allow civil society to raise its voice and be heard by government and companies, it can be argued that EITI has a positive influence on poverty and inequality reduction. Interestingly, the Revenue Watch Institute survey on EITI (Dykstra 2011), shows that civil society representatives in EITI implementing states feel that EITI’s greatest benefit is to have increased “dialogue between stakeholders” and, more specifically, the relationship between civil society and the government. This data therefore confirm the validity of EITI as a forum of discussion and as a channel for civil society’s grievances to be heard. However, EITI arguably fails to promote policies that address poverty and inequality at a structural level. The EITI’s new strategy Some of the issues highlighted in this paragraph have been or are being addressed at the moment of writing. A first step forward can be detected when comparing the EITI 2005 Rules edition with the 2011 version. Probably the most important addition is a much clearer explanation of EITI requirements, which were identified as mere ‘suggested actions’ previously. Particularly, an important improvement has been made in relation to Suggested Action n.11, which has been transformed in Requirement 11, as figure 5 shows. 23 Figure 5: Suggested Action 11 vs. Requirement 11 (Sources: EITI Sourcebook 2005 and EITI Rules 2011 respectively) This change is significant in as much as it introduces a degree of compulsion in the disclosure mechanism and a much better formulation of what the government is expected to achieve. There is still some contradiction: how can EITI criteria be applied to all companies (point a) if it provides that some companies might not participate to EITI (point c, iv)? It is clear that there has been an effort to implement a greater degree of compulsion, as a matter of fact the possibility to change domestic legislation and regulation is not eluded anymore. However, as long as the standard is not integrated in the domestic legislation, some companies will probably refuse to participate, and this undermines the very existence of EITI. Progress has also been made during the July 2012 Oslo meeting, which has expressed the necessity for mandatory disclosure of licenses and licenseholders, for reporting “by each company and each revenue streams as part of the minimum [disaggreagation] requirements” (p.3), and for further discussion on the issues of local content, midstream payments, licensing, project-level reporting and social expenditures. These seem to be encouraging steps, as they push the EITI in the direction of revenue-expenditure disclosure and greater enforceability of the standard. 24 3.3 Conclusion The present work was aimed at answering the question of whether transparency initiatives for the extractive industries, and particularly the EITI, can tackle the negative outcomes presented by the resource-curse theory. This question was posed in the light of the claims carried out by EITI’s supporters that EITI contributes to enhance governance, economic growth and poverty reduction in resource-rich countries. The analysis of the EITI carried out in this paper has clearly shown the inadequacy of EITI to live up to the claims of its supporters. Chapter 1, after reviewing the existing literature on the resource curse, has emphasized the need for further discussion of the variables that influence the resource curse. Chapter 2 has therefore offered thoughtful insights into the factors that are the more likely causes of the ‘curse’. The following elements have been of particular relevance: first, the analysis of the new trends in economic growth of resource-dependent countries has disproved the axiom at the core of the resource-curse theory, namely that resource-rich countries perform worse than other countries, while uncovering the important phenomenon of a significant and constant rise of prices caused by China’s mineral demand, which if properly managed, can arguably offer resourceexporters the opportunity to ‘break the curse’ for good; second, an assessment of the claims that resource-rich countries are plagued by higher levels of poverty and social inequality because of their resource endowment, has shown that such issues are caused by a number of political, social and cultural factors that are intrinsic to the social fabric of society and are the result of countryspecific problems; third, the appraisal of the causes for the lack of democracy and transparency in resource-rich countries has brought to light the existence of a triple, intertwined process of development of democracy, taxation, and an efficient bureaucratic apparatus, as the unique result of European history, which has not occurred in most developing countries because of the legacy that colonialism has left behind. A further contribution of Chapter 2 has been the suggestion of policies to create a framework that can arguably address, at least to a certain extent, the problems of poor economic growth, high levels of poverty and social inequality, and lack of transparency and democracy. Chapter 3 has used this framework of policies to test the validity of EITI as a solution to the resource curse. The results of this analysis are the following: EITI achieves its best performance with regard to the implementation of transparency and disclosure of revenues in resource-rich countries; the mechanisms that allow greater transparency fail to thoroughly address the issues of accountability and good governance, which are not even clearly pursued by EITI requirements; EITI needs to improve the enforceability and compulsory character of its disclosure mechanism if it wants countries’ reports to be truly informed about the dynamics of the extractive industries; moreover, EITI needs to broaden its target and promote training and capacity-building of the domestic legislators. In addition, it can be argued that the reason why EITI fails to promote economic growth and poverty reduction is because these objectives go beyond EITI’s scope. 25 Therefore, this paper suggests that EITI, despite contributing to transparency in the extractive industries, should revise its objectives, focusing on more realistic goals, particularly the enhancement of transparency, which is the reason why EITI was created to begin with. 26 Appendix 1: Ethical Approval, Geography Risk Assessment Form and Geography Research Ethics Screening Form Ethical Approval E-mail: Date: Wed, 18 Jul 2012 14:41:26 Dear Shady Anayati, KCL/11-12_1852 Certification schemes and international standards for the extractive industries I am pleased to inform you that full approval for your project has been granted by the GGS Research Ethics Panel. Any specific conditions of approval are laid out at the end of this email which should be followed in addition to the standard terms and conditions of approval: - Ethical approval is granted for a period of one year from the date of this email. You will not receive a reminder that your approval is about to lapse so it is your responsibility to apply for an extension prior to the project lapsing if you need one (see below for instructions). - You should report any untoward events or unforeseen ethical problems arising from the project to the panel Chairman within a week of the occurrence. Information about the panel may be accessed at: http://www.kcl.ac.uk/research/ethics/applicants/sshl/panels/. - If you wish to change your project or request an extension of approval you will need to submit a new application with an attachment indicating the changes you want to make (a proforma document to help you with this is available at: http://www.kcl.ac.uk/research/ethics/applicants/modifications.html). - All research should be conducted in accordance with the King's College London Guidelines on Good Practice in Academic Research available at: http://www.kcl.ac.uk/college/policyzone/index.php?id=247&searched=good+practice&advsearch=allwords &highlight=ajaxSearch_highlight+ajaxSearch_highlight1+ajaxSearch_highlight2 If you require signed confirmation of your approval please forward this email to [email protected] indicating why it is required and the address you would like it to be sent to. Please would you also note that we may, for the purposes of audit, contact you from time to time to ascertain the status of your research. We wish you every success with this work. With best wishes Yours Sincerely, GGS Reviewer 27 Appendix 2: Summary of policies suggested in chapter two Suggested policy Induce economic growth Reserve funds Stabilization and future funds or WB and IMF loans Investment in infrastructure Trade agreements with industrializing countries Training for national and local governmental personnel Open bidding of mining rights, monitored by independent body (i.e. EITI) Accessible education and specific training at secondary-school and university level Development of domestic linkages, for instance regulations about the sale of percentages of production to local manufacturers Policies to support labour-intensive sectors, like agriculture Social policies to tackle specific case-related issues, such as financial help to those hit by AIDS and their families ‘barter contracts’ Fight 1. Disclosure of data regarding payments made corruption by companies to governments and payments received by governments from companies (collection level) 2. Mechanism with enforcing power to investigate discrepancies and punish wrongdoers 3. Disclosure of data regarding distribution and allocation of rents 4. Develop expertise and skills of governmental official at all levels 5. Provision of fines and punishment for corrupted officials and companies 6. A realistic assessment of the capacity of reception of domestic population of disclosed data and implementation of alternative ways of publishing data if internet is not accessible by the majority of the population Improve Disclosure of data regarding distribution and accountability allocation of rents Reorganization of the taxation system Training of state bureaucracy and Tackle inequality and poverty Specific purpose of the policy Cushion effect, counterbalance boombust cycles Contrast Dutch disease and provide profit through investment Fight Dutch disease and allow future growth Exploit the surge of demand Increase negotiating skills to achieve fair contracts with mining companies Benefit from increased competitiveness in international markets Develop long-term skills and build domestic human capital Stimulate industrialization and reduce the enclave nature of mining Diversify the economy and increase employment rates Empower citizens and provide assistance to victims of disease or war Provide infrastructure that can benefit the poor 7. Expose corruption through discrepancies in data 8. Increase enforceability in order to promote effectiveness of policies 9. Fight corruption at the different levels of distribution and allocation of resources, not just at collection level 10. Increase independence from companies on one hand and provide a smooth process of disclosure 11. Mandatory anti-corruption domestic laws both in producing and importing countries 12. Increase capacities of citizens to be informed about the fight against corruption Monitor budget expenditures and destinations of resource revenues Enhance the administrative control of the central/regional governments on the 28 investment in capacity building Training of monitoring bodies, for instance parliaments, by international consultancy like Revenue Watch Institute Insert civic education in schools territory Enhance expertise and skills of administrative personnel Enhance the role of legislators in mediating between the citizens and the government Empower citizens, specially the youth, and educate them to require more of their own governments 29 Appendix 3: Full list of EITI Principles and Criteria (Source: EITI Rules, 2011 Edition) 30 Appendix 4: EITI requisites (Source: EITI Rules, 2011 Edition) 31 Reference list Armour, I.D. (2012), A History of Eastern Europe 1740-1918: empires, nations and modernization, Bloomsbury Academics, 2nd edition Auty, R. (1993) Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis, London: Routledge Bannon I., Collier P. ( eds.) (2003) Natural Resources and Violent Conflict-options and actions, World Bank Publications Bauer, A. (2011) Managing and Spending Resource Revenues Well, Revenue Watch Institute Briefing Bond, P. (2008) The looting of Africa, Globalization and the Washington Consensus: its influence on democracy and development in the south. Lechini G. (ed.). Buenos Aires : CLACSO, Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales Collier, P. and Hoeffler A. (2002), Greed and Grievance in Civil War, Centre for the Study of African Economies Collier, P. and Hoeffler A. (2005) Resource Rents, Governance, and Conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, (4) 625-633 Collier, P. and Hoeffler, A. (1998) ‘On Economic Causes of Civil War’, Oxford Economic Papers, 50, 563–73 Davis, G.A and Tillon J.E. (2005) The resource curse, Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 29, pages 233–242 Davis, G.A. (1995) ‘Learning to Love the Dutch Disease: Evidence from Mineral Economies’, World Development 23.10: 1765–80 in Rosser, A. (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers De Soysa, I. (2000) ‘The Resource Curse: Are Civil Wars Driven by Rapacity or Paucity?’ in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Dunning, T. (2005) Resource Dependence, Economic Performance, and Political Stability, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49 No. 4, August 2005 451-482 Dykstra, P. (2011) Learning from Success and Challenges, Revenue Watch Institute Briefing Gelb, A. and Associates (1988) Oil Windfalls: Blessing or Curse, New York: Oxford University Press in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Gillies, A. (2011) What makes a good EITI report?, Revenue Watch Institute Briefing Ginsburg, N. (1957) Natural Resources and Economic Development, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 47, 197-212 Good, K. (2005) Resource dependency and its consequences: The costs of Botswana's shining gems, Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 23:1, 27-50 32 Heap, A. (2005) China - The Engine for a Commodities Super Cycle, New York, Citigroup, Smith Barney in Economic Commission for Africa –ECA (2012) Minerals and Africa’s Development, Economic Commission for Africa Publications Hilson, G. and Maconachie R. (2008) “Good Governance and the Extractive Industries in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Mineral Processing and Extractive Metallurgy Review: An International Journal, 30:1, 52-100 Humphreys, M. (2005) Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49 (4) 508-537 Karl, T.L. (1997) The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States, Berkeley, Los Angeles and London: California University Press Le Billon, P. (2001) Angola's political economy of war: the role of oil and diamonds, 1975-2000, Journal of African Affairs, 100, 55-80 Le Billon, P. (2001) The Political Ecology of War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts, Journal of Political Geography, 20, 561–84 Le Billon, P. (2004) The Geopolitical economy of ‘resource wars’, Geopolitics, 9:1, 1-28 Le Billon, P. (2005) The resource curse, The Adelphi Papers, 45:373, 11-27 Le Billon, P. (2006-2007) Securing Transparency: Armed Conflicts and the Management of Natural Resource Revenues, International Journal of Natural Resources and Conflict, Vol. 62, No. 1, pp. 93-107 Le Billon, P. (2008) Diamond Wars? Conflict Diamonds and Geographies of Resource Wars, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 98 (2), 345-372 Luciani, G. (1987) ‘Allocation vs. Production States: A Theoretical Framework’ in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Meyer, A. (2011) EITI’s Role in Revenue Transparency, Revenue Watch Institute Briefing Moore, M. (2000) Political Underdevelopment: What Causes Bad Governance?, Public Management Review 3.3: 385–418 Moore, M. (2004) Revenues, State Formation, and the Quality of Governance in Developing Countries, International Political Science Review, 25 ( 3), 297–319 Nankani, G. (1979) Development Problems of Mineral Exporting Countries, Staff Working Paper 354 (August), Washington, DC: World Bank in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Prebisch, R. (1950) The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems, Lake Success, NY: United Nations in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Reno, W. (2007) Patronage Politics and the Behavior of Armed Groups, Journal of Civil Wars, 9:4, 324-342 33 Robinson, J., Torvik, R. and Verdier, T. (2002) Political Foundations of the Resource Curse, Centre For Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper Series No 3422 in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Ross M. (2001b) Timber Booms and Institutional Breakdown in Southeast Asia, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Ross, M. (2001) Extractive Sectors and the Poor, Oxfam America Publications Ross, M. (2004) What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War? Journal of Peace Research 41.3, 337–56 Ross, M. (2011) The Political Economy of Petroleum Wealth in Low-Income Countries: some policy alternatives, paper prepared for the IMF High Level Seminar, “Commodity Price Volatility andInclusive Growth in LICs,” Washington DC, September 21, 2011 Rosser, A. (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Rostow, W.W., (1960) The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto, Cambridge University Press Sachs, J.D. and Warner, M. (1995) Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 6398 (December) Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research Schumpeter, J. A. (1991 [ 1918] ) ‘The Crisis of the Tax State’ in Moore, M. (2000) Political Underdevelopment: What Causes Bad Governance?, Public Management Review 3.3: 385–418 Singer, H. (1950), The Distribution of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries, The American Economic Review 40.2 (May), papers and proceedings of the sixty-second Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association: 473–85 in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Snyder, R. and Bhavnani R. (2005) Diamonds, blood and taxes: A revenue-centered framework for explaining political order, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49 (4): 563-97. Wantchekon, L. (1999), Why Do Resource Dependent Countries Have Authoritarian Governments? New Haven, CT: Yale University in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Reports African Union (2009), African Mining Vision, sent by Antonio Pedro, UNECA Economic Commission for Africa –ECA (2012) Minerals and Africa’s Development, Economic Commission for Africa Publications 34 EITI Minutes of 20th EITI Board Meeting, EITI International Secretariat, Oslo, 30 July 20012, available on EITI website EITI Rules, 2005 Edition, Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Source Book EITI Rules, 2011 Edition, available online http://eiti.org/files/EITI_Rules_Validations_April2011_1.pdf Fair Links (2012) Rapport de l’Administrateur Indépendant de l’IETIE sur les revenues 2008-2009 Global Witness (1998) A crude awakening, available at http://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/A%20Crude%20Awakening.pdf IMF (2012) Sub-Saharan Africa - Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty, International Monetary Fund Publications Websites Aaronson, S.A (2008), Oil and the public interest, available online http://www.voxeu.org/article/cantransparency-extractive-industries-break-resource-curse EITI website: www.eiti.org HDR (2011), http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/BWA.html McDowell , J.(2009) The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, Contributing to a better investment climate, available at http://eiti.org/files/EITI%20%20Contributing%20to%20a%20better%20investment%20climate.pdf PWYP (2012) http://www.publishwhatyoupay.org/category/topics/govt-expenditure PWYP website: www.publishwhatyoupay.com Wire Dusseldorf (2011), EITI – a brick in the fight against the resource curse, available online http://www.wiretradefair.com/cipp/md_wiretube/custom/pub/content,oid,9852/lang,2/ticket,g_u_e_s_t/~/EITI_%E2%80% 93_a_brick_in_the_fight_against_the_resource_curse.html 35 Appendix 1: Ethical Approval, Geography Risk Assessment Form and Geography Research Ethics Screening Form Ethical Approval E-mail: Date: Wed, 18 Jul 2012 14:41:26 Dear Shady Anayati, KCL/11-12_1852 Certification schemes and international standards for the extractive industries I am pleased to inform you that full approval for your project has been granted by the GGS Research Ethics Panel. Any specific conditions of approval are laid out at the end of this email which should be followed in addition to the standard terms and conditions of approval: - Ethical approval is granted for a period of one year from the date of this email. You will not receive a reminder that your approval is about to lapse so it is your responsibility to apply for an extension prior to the project lapsing if you need one (see below for instructions). - You should report any untoward events or unforeseen ethical problems arising from the project to the panel Chairman within a week of the occurrence. Information about the panel may be accessed at: http://www.kcl.ac.uk/research/ethics/applicants/sshl/panels/. - If you wish to change your project or request an extension of approval you will need to submit a new application with an attachment indicating the changes you want to make (a proforma document to help you with this is available at: http://www.kcl.ac.uk/research/ethics/applicants/modifications.html). - All research should be conducted in accordance with the King's College London Guidelines on Good Practice in Academic Research available at: http://www.kcl.ac.uk/college/policyzone/index.php?id=247&searched=good+practice&advsearch=allwords &highlight=ajaxSearch_highlight+ajaxSearch_highlight1+ajaxSearch_highlight2 If you require signed confirmation of your approval please forward this email to [email protected] indicating why it is required and the address you would like it to be sent to. Please would you also note that we may, for the purposes of audit, contact you from time to time to ascertain the status of your research. We wish you every success with this work. With best wishes Yours Sincerely, GGS Reviewer Appendix 2: Summary of policies suggested in chapter two Suggested policy Induce economic growth Tackle inequality and poverty Reserve funds Stabilization and future funds or WB and IMF loans Investment in infrastructure Trade agreements with industrializing countries Training for national and local governmental personnel Open bidding of mining rights, monitored by independent body (i.e. EITI) Accessible education and specific training at secondary-school and university level Development of domestic linkages, for instance regulations about the sale of percentages of production to local manufacturers Policies to support labour-intensive sectors, like agriculture Social policies to tackle specific case-related issues, such as financial help to those hit by AIDS and their families ‘barter contracts’ Fight Disclosure of data regarding payments made corruption by companies to governments and payments received by governments from companies (collection level) Mechanism with enforcing power to investigate discrepancies and punish wrongdoers Disclosure of data regarding distribution and allocation of rents Develop expertise and skills of governmental official at all levels Provision of fines and punishment for corrupted officials and companies A realistic assessment of the capacity of reception of domestic population of disclosed data and implementation of alternative ways of publishing data if internet is not accessible by the majority of the population Improve Disclosure of data regarding distribution and accountability allocation of rents Reorganization of the taxation system Training of state bureaucracy and investment in capacity building Training of monitoring bodies, for instance Specific purpose of the policy Cushion effect, counterbalance boombust cycles Contrast Dutch disease and provide profit through investment Fight Dutch disease and allow future growth Exploit the surge of demand Increase negotiating skills to achieve fair contracts with mining companies Benefit from increased competitiveness in international markets Develop long-term skills and build domestic human capital Stimulate industrialization and reduce the enclave nature of mining Diversify the economy and increase employment rates Empower citizens and provide assistance to victims of disease or war Provide infrastructure that can benefit the poor Expose corruption through discrepancies in data Increase enforceability in order to promote effectiveness of policies Fight corruption at the different levels of distribution and allocation of resources, not just at collection level Increase independence from companies on one hand and provide a smooth process of disclosure Mandatory anti-corruption domestic laws both in producing and importing countries Increase capacities of citizens to be informed about the fight against corruption Monitor budget expenditures and destinations of resource revenues Enhance the administrative control of the central/regional governments on the territory Enhance expertise and skills of administrative personnel parliaments, by international consultancy like Revenue Watch Institute Insert civic education in schools Enhance the role of legislators in mediating between the citizens and the government Empower citizens, specially the youth, and educate them to require more of their own governments Appendix 3: Full list of EITI Principles and Criteria (Source: EITI Rules, 2011 Edition) Appendix 4: EITI requisites (Source: EITI Rules, 2011 Edition) Reference list Armour, I.D. (2012), A History of Eastern Europe 1740-1918: empires, nations and modernization, Bloomsbury Academics, 2nd edition Auty, R. (1993) Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis, London: Routledge Bannon I., Collier P. ( eds.) (2003) Natural Resources and Violent Conflict-options and actions, World Bank Publications Bauer, A. (2011) Managing and Spending Resource Revenues Well, Revenue Watch Institute Briefing Bond, P. (2008) The looting of Africa, Globalization and the Washington Consensus: its influence on democracy and development in the south. Lechini G. (ed.). Buenos Aires : CLACSO, Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales Collier, P. and Hoeffler A. (2002), Greed and Grievance in Civil War, Centre for the Study of African Economies Collier, P. and Hoeffler A. (2005) Resource Rents, Governance, and Conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, (4) 625-633 Collier, P. and Hoeffler, A. (1998) ‘On Economic Causes of Civil War’, Oxford Economic Papers, 50, 563–73 Davis, G.A and Tillon J.E. (2005) The resource curse, Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 29, pages 233–242 Davis, G.A. (1995) ‘Learning to Love the Dutch Disease: Evidence from Mineral Economies’, World Development 23.10: 1765–80 in Rosser, A. (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers De Soysa, I. (2000) ‘The Resource Curse: Are Civil Wars Driven by Rapacity or Paucity?’ in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Dunning, T. (2005) Resource Dependence, Economic Performance, and Political Stability, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49 No. 4, August 2005 451-482 Dykstra, P. (2011) Learning from Success and Challenges, Revenue Watch Institute Briefing Gelb, A. and Associates (1988) Oil Windfalls: Blessing or Curse, New York: Oxford University Press in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Gillies, A. (2011) What makes a good EITI report?, Revenue Watch Institute Briefing Ginsburg, N. (1957) Natural Resources and Economic Development, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 47, 197-212 Good, K. (2005) Resource dependency and its consequences: The costs of Botswana's shining gems, Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 23:1, 27-50 Heap, A. (2005) China - The Engine for a Commodities Super Cycle, New York, Citigroup, Smith Barney in Economic Commission for Africa –ECA (2012) Minerals and Africa’s Development, Economic Commission for Africa Publications Hilson, G. and Maconachie R. (2008) “Good Governance and the Extractive Industries in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Mineral Processing and Extractive Metallurgy Review: An International Journal, 30:1, 52-100 Humphreys, M. (2005) Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49 (4) 508-537 Karl, T.L. (1997) The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States, Berkeley, Los Angeles and London: California University Press Le Billon, P. (2001) Angola's political economy of war: the role of oil and diamonds, 1975-2000, Journal of African Affairs, 100, 55-80 Le Billon, P. (2001) The Political Ecology of War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts, Journal of Political Geography, 20, 561–84 Le Billon, P. (2004) The Geopolitical economy of ‘resource wars’, Geopolitics, 9:1, 1-28 Le Billon, P. (2005) The resource curse, The Adelphi Papers, 45:373, 11-27 Le Billon, P. (2006-2007) Securing Transparency: Armed Conflicts and the Management of Natural Resource Revenues, International Journal of Natural Resources and Conflict, Vol. 62, No. 1, pp. 93-107 Le Billon, P. (2008) Diamond Wars? Conflict Diamonds and Geographies of Resource Wars, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 98 (2), 345-372 Luciani, G. (1987) ‘Allocation vs. Production States: A Theoretical Framework’ in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Meyer, A. (2011) EITI’s Role in Revenue Transparency, Revenue Watch Institute Briefing Moore, M. (2000) Political Underdevelopment: What Causes Bad Governance?, Public Management Review 3.3: 385–418 Moore, M. (2004) Revenues, State Formation, and the Quality of Governance in Developing Countries, International Political Science Review, 25 ( 3), 297–319 Nankani, G. (1979) Development Problems of Mineral Exporting Countries, Staff Working Paper 354 (August), Washington, DC: World Bank in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Prebisch, R. (1950) The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems, Lake Success, NY: United Nations in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Reno, W. (2007) Patronage Politics and the Behavior of Armed Groups, Journal of Civil Wars, 9:4, 324-342 Robinson, J., Torvik, R. and Verdier, T. (2002) Political Foundations of the Resource Curse, Centre For Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper Series No 3422 in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Ross M. (2001b) Timber Booms and Institutional Breakdown in Southeast Asia, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Ross, M. (2001) Extractive Sectors and the Poor, Oxfam America Publications Ross, M. (2004) What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War? Journal of Peace Research 41.3, 337–56 Ross, M. (2011) The Political Economy of Petroleum Wealth in Low-Income Countries: some policy alternatives, paper prepared for the IMF High Level Seminar, “Commodity Price Volatility andInclusive Growth in LICs,” Washington DC, September 21, 2011 Rosser, A. (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Rostow, W.W., (1960) The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto, Cambridge University Press Sachs, J.D. and Warner, M. (1995) Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 6398 (December) Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research Schumpeter, J. A. (1991 [ 1918] ) ‘The Crisis of the Tax State’ in Moore, M. (2000) Political Underdevelopment: What Causes Bad Governance?, Public Management Review 3.3: 385–418 Singer, H. (1950), The Distribution of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries, The American Economic Review 40.2 (May), papers and proceedings of the sixty-second Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association: 473–85 in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Snyder, R. and Bhavnani R. (2005) Diamonds, blood and taxes: A revenue-centered framework for explaining political order, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49 (4): 563-97. Wantchekon, L. (1999), Why Do Resource Dependent Countries Have Authoritarian Governments? New Haven, CT: Yale University in Rosser, A., (2006) Resource Curse: A Literature Survey, Institute of Development Studies Working Papers Reports African Union (2009), African Mining Vision, sent by Antonio Pedro, UNECA Economic Commission for Africa –ECA (2012) Minerals and Africa’s Development, Economic Commission for Africa Publications EITI Minutes of 20th EITI Board Meeting, EITI International Secretariat, Oslo, 30 July 20012, available on EITI website EITI Rules, 2005 Edition, Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Source Book EITI Rules, 2011 Edition, available online http://eiti.org/files/EITI_Rules_Validations_April2011_1.pdf Fair Links (2012) Rapport de l’Administrateur Indépendant de l’IETIE sur les revenues 2008-2009 Global Witness (1998) A crude awakening, available at http://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/A%20Crude%20Awakening.pdf IMF (2012) Sub-Saharan Africa - Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty, International Monetary Fund Publications Websites Aaronson, S.A (2008), Oil and the public interest, available online http://www.voxeu.org/article/cantransparency-extractive-industries-break-resource-curse EITI website: www.eiti.org HDR (2011), http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/BWA.html McDowell , J.(2009) The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, Contributing to a better investment climate, available at http://eiti.org/files/EITI%20%20Contributing%20to%20a%20better%20investment%20climate.pdf PWYP (2012) http://www.publishwhatyoupay.org/category/topics/govt-expenditure PWYP website: www.publishwhatyoupay.com Wire Dusseldorf (2011), EITI – a brick in the fight against the resource curse, available online http://www.wiretradefair.com/cipp/md_wiretube/custom/pub/content,oid,9852/lang,2/ticket,g_u_e_s_t/~/EITI_%E2%80% 93_a_brick_in_the_fight_against_the_resource_curse.html
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