Technological Change
Martin Hilbert (Dr., PhD)
What is technology?
How does technology evolve?
What are some possible
future ICT?
…in the spirit of
Marshall McLuhan
http://vimeo.com/34017777 8 - 11min
1
What is technology?
What is technology?
A short working definition:
“Standardized solutions
to address typical needs,
derived from knowledge about the world
and embedded in physical structure”
(based on Dosi, 1984 and Arthur, 2009)
Sources: based on Arthur, W. B. (2009). The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves. Free Press. Dosi, G. (1984). Technical Change and
Industrial Transformation: Theory and an Application to the Semiconductor Industry. Palgrave Macmillan. http://www.whenwasitinvented.org/
What is technology?
A short working definition:
Cooper
“Standardized solutions Martin
(1973)
to address typical needs,
derived from knowledge about the world
and embedded in physical structure”
(based on Dosi, 1984 and Arthur, 2009)
2
Addressing typical needs
…by imagining the impossible…
Arthur Clarke’s (Sci-fi author) laws of the future (1962):
…
- The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into
the impossible.
- Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
“Satellites” Clarke, 1945: “Extra-Terrestrial Relays - Can Rocket Stations Give Worldwide Radio Coverage?", nowadays called “Clarke Orbit”
“Robotics”: Asimov, 1941, “Runaround”: Inspiration of Devol and Engelberger to design the first industrial robot, Unimate.
…response to a typical need:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdwvuTrycYU
What is technology?
A short working definition:
“Standardized solutions
to address typical needs,
derived from knowledge about the world
and embedded in physical structure”
(based on Dosi, 1984 and Arthur, 2009)
What does knowledge consist of: algorithm
“An algorithm is an ordered set of unambiguous, executable steps that defined a terminating process” (J.G. Brookshear, Computer Science, ed. 10, 2009)
Question to J.v.Neumann: “A machine cannot think, can it?“
“Worrying about what a machine cannot do is the right way: once you tell me
exactly what it is a machine cannot do, I can build a machine that can
exactly do what you described”
3
Tacit (implicit) knowledge & explicit knowledge
Tacit knowledge
Explicit knowledge
(“know it”, but cannot say how)
(can tell you step-by-step)
“…once you tell me exactly what it is…, I can build a
machine that can exactly do what you described…!”
Source: Polanyi, M. (1966). The Tacit Dimension. UCP. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0087538/. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0133093
What is technology?
A short working definition:
“Standardized solutions
to address typical needs,
derived from knowledge about the world
and embedded in physical structure”
(based on Dosi, 1984 and Arthur, 2009)
Adleman, L. M. (1994). Molecular computation of solutions to
combinatorial problems. Science, 266(5187), 1021–1024.
Embodiment of knowledge
J's binary tinkertoy calculator:
http://youtu.be/qo96cMHZ424
Inventor of the
DNA computer
Newton’s 17th century algorithm
to calculate √square roots:
4
What is technology?
A short working definition:
“Standardized solutions
to address typical needs,
derived from knowledge about the world
and embedded in physical structure”
(based on Dosi, 1984 and Arthur, 2009)
Dominant design & standards
“…DSK "lets you type 20-40%
faster… [but] …standardization on
the wrong system -where
decentralized decision making
subsequently has sufficed to hold it”
“frozen accidents”
often set future standards
Strategic business-alliances,
performance trade-offs and
decision of individuals, etc…
David, Paul A., (1985), "Clio and the Economics of
QWERTY," American Economic Review, pp. 332-337
What is technology?
A short working definition:
“Standardized solutions
to address typical needs,
derived from knowledge about the world
and embedded in physical structure”
(based on Dosi, 1984 and Arthur, 2009)
5
Martin Cooper
(1973)
How does technology
evolve?
Mobile phone commercial not too long ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWfqkrAM8IY
MP3
How does technology evolve?
CD
Typical need: How to store high quality sound for later consumption?
Cassette tape
Performance
Vinyl record
Tinfoil wrap
MP3
How does technology evolve?
CD
Typical need: How to store high quality sound for later consumption?
1995
Cassette tape
1980
Performance
Vinyl record
1963
Tinfoil wrap
15 years
1930
17 years
1877
53 years
33 years
6
MP3
How does technology evolve?
CD
Performance Progress
Technological
Typical need: How to store high quality sound for later consumption?
1995
Cassette tape
1980
Vinyl record
1963
Tinfoil wrap
15 years
1930
17 years
1877
53 years
33 years
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOLNkOMgWnM
How? Combinations
Thomas Edison: 1,093 U.S. patents + more internationally
8000 choose 1 =
= 8 000
8000 choose 2 =
31 996 000
8000 choose 3 =
85 301 336 000
8000 choose 4 =
170 538 696 000 000
Edison's Menlo Park laboratory occupied two city blocks. Edison said he wanted the lab to have "a stock
of almost every conceivable material". It contained more then “8,000 kinds of chemicals, every kind of
screw made, every size of needle, every kind of cord or wire, hair of humans, horses, hogs, cows, rabbits,
goats, minx, camels ... silk in every texture, cocoons, various kinds of hoofs, shark's teeth, deer horns,
tortoise shell ... cork, resin, varnish and oil, ostrich feathers, a peacock's tail, jet, amber, rubber, all ores ..."
"I have not failed 10,000 times. I
have not failed once. I have
successfully found 10,000 ways
that will not work.”
“Genius is one percent inspiration,
ninety-nine percent perspiration.”
For a more recent and formal treatment, see: Youn, H., Strumsky, D., Bettencourt, L. M. A., & Lobo, J. (2015).
Invention as a combinatorial process: evidence from US patents. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 12(106).
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http://youtu.be/9hUIxyE2Ns8
Second 0.00
until 3:28 min
Exponential growth of Combinations
Number of
input
Number of
combinations
2^ 0 =
1
2^ 1 =
2
2^ 2 =
4
2^ 3 =
8
2^ 4 = 16
“A definition of innovation:
innovation …it consists in
carrying out New
Combinations.”
Joseph Schumpeter
Step-size of progress
1
2
4
8
16
2^ 5 = 32
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Big Bang
January 1
Origin of Milky Way
May 1
Origin of solar system
September 9
Formation of Earth
September 14
Life on Earth
September 25
Oldest fossil (bacteria & algae)
October 9
Invention of sex
November 1
Eukaryotes (cells with nuclei)
November 15
Cambrian Explosion
December 1
Dinosaurs Extinction
December 30
First humans
December 31
Stone Tools
Domestication of fire
Cave Paintings in Europe
First dynasties Egypt, Babylon
Bronze metallurgy
Iron metallurgy
Athens, Chi-in Dynasty China, Buddha
Roman Empire, Christ
Renaissance Europe, development of experimental science
Globalizations, Science, self-destruction potential, Space travel
The universe’s history in one year
10:30 P.M.
11:00 P.M.
11:46 P.M.
11:59 P.M.
11:59:51 P.M.
11:59:52 P.M.
11:59:53 P.M.
11:59:55 P.M.
11:59:56 P.M.
11:59:59 P.M.
Now
Sagan, C. (1986). The Dragons of Eden: Speculations on the Evolution of Human Intelligence. NY.
8
Exponential growth of Combinations
logb blinear = exponential
Number of
input
Number of
combinations
log2 2^ 0 =
1
log2 2^ 1 =
2
log2 2^ 2 =
4
log2 2^ 3 =
8
All exponential growth
can be represented as a
by taking the
logarithm of base 2
1
2
4
8
log2 2^ 4 = 16
16
log2 2^ 5 = 32
Accelerating nature of technological progress
12-
Domestication of fire
150,000 years
3456-
=> Starting fire
7891011121314
15-
First human flight of 120 feet (1903)
66 years
=> First human flight to the moon (1969)
Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.kurzweilAI.net
performance
A Theory of Technological Innovation
Changes can be:
Physical variables
- Structural (size, scale, differential growth)
Socioeconomic variables
- Material
- Systems
?
?
?
(symbiotic)
Continuous
technological
progress
Disruptive
technological
progress
time
Source: Sahal, D. (1985). Technological guideposts and innovation avenues. Research Policy, 14(2), 61–82.
9
Which need? Which performance?
Evolution of Aircraft Technology Performance
300
250
seating capacity
airspeed mph
200
150
100
50
0
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
Source: Devendra Sahal, Patterns of Technological Innovation, 1981
Disruptive Breakthroughs
Evolution of Aircraft Technology Performance
300
5% growth
250
seating capacity
airspeed mph
200
2% growth
9% growth
150
10% growth
3% growth
100
11% growth
50
0
1930
3% growth
12% growth
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
Source: Devendra Sahal, Patterns of Technological Innovation, 1981
Where do these “building blocks come from?”
http://youtu.be/3r1IPsldbBg
min 4:44 – 5:55
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Inventions, innovations and diffusion
Invention: new combinations in the realm of technical possibilities Innovation: new combinations in the realm of economic possibilities
Not all inventions become innovations and not all innovations get widely diffused!
J.A. Schumpeter
(1883-1950)
Innovations are
- derived from inventions by entrepreneurs and managers with profit in mind
- not random, but shaped by the context (prices, regulation and institutions, perception)
- path-dependent (market potential often depends on what the market has already accepted)
Source: Schumpeter (1911:1926:1961) pp. 132-6. See a discussion in Nelson and Winter (1982) pp. 263-6
Inventions, innovations and diffusion
Invention: new combinations in the realm of technical possibilities Innovation: new combinations in the realm of economic possibilities
Not all inventions become innovations and not all innovations get widely diffused!
J.A. Schumpeter
(1883-1950)
“…technological determinism is a myth that results when one looks backwards and believes that the path taken to the present was the only possible path…”
Source: Pinch, Bijker. 1987. "The Social Construction of Facts and Artifacts," In The Social Construction of Technological Systems. pp 107-139.
https://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/23196723/1174108767/name/Technology+and+Society+Building+Our+Sociotechnical+Future.pdf
Diffusion of Innovation
Performance
TECHNOLOGY
DIFFUSION
INNOVATION
TIME
11
Technological progress & diffusion of technology
Yearly assessment of Aircraft Technology 1932-1965
Performance variable
airspeed mph * seating capacity
30
5
25
4
3
20
2
1
15
0
0
10
20
30
10
5
0
0
20
40
60
80
Diffusion indicator
100
120
total route mile * number of aircraft in service
Source: Devendra Sahal, Patterns of Technological Innovation, 1981
Technological progress and diffusion of technology: death of a technology
Evolution of locomotives vs diffusion
Yearly assessment of Locomotive Technology 1904-1967
70000
tractive effort in pounds
Performance indicator
80000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
10
15
20
25
30
Diffusion indicator
total railroad milage * number of locomotives in service
Source: Devendra Sahal, Patterns of Technological Innovation, 1981
Death of a technology
Global Newspaper consumption (metric tons)
45,000,000
2000-2006
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
‐
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
: Gonzalez, Lopez, Hilbert, 2009; based on FAO.
12
Death of a technology
Units of audio-cassettes
developed
developing
Source: Gonzalez, Lopez, Hilbert, 2009; based on diverse sources.
MP3
…ufff‐ wait! …so how does technology evolve?
CD
Technological Progress
Typical need: How to store high quality sound for later consumption?
1995
Cassette tape
1980
Vinyl record
1963
Tinfoil wrap
15 years
1930
17 years
1877
53 years
33 years
How do ICT evolve?
13
10
1
0.1
0.01
0.00001
900000
0.000001
800000
0.0000001
700000
Thousands
0.001
1900
1910
0.0001 1000000
1920
1930
600000
1940
Calculations per second per US$ 1,000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
1950
1960
1970
1980
Calcualtions per second per US$ 1,000
100
Thousands
1000
Calculations per second per US$ 1,000 .
Calculations per second per US$ 1,000 .
10000
Thousands
1000
100000
900
800
Thousands
The usefulness of the logarithm: computation
1000000
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
19900
2000
1900
4000
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
3000
2000
1000
0
1900
500000
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
“The
complexity
for
minimum
component
costs has increased at a
rate of roughly a factor
of two per year”.
G. Moore, 1965
Sources: Xerox Palo Alto Research Center; Lord Karnage. (2009). Classic Game Room HD - PONG for Nintendo DS / GBA. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrezFjGF-Kg
14
15
1
2
4
8
16
1
2
4
8
16
32
…
Source: destinygame. (2014). Official Destiny Live Action Trailer – Become
Legend. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZyQK6kUdWQ
Rockstar Games. (2013). Grand Theft Auto V: Official Gameplay Video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-xHcvug3WI
Digital convergence on the bit
Claude Shannon
(1916 - 2001)
Communication
Smoke &
Trumpet,
Fire Signals, horns
Drums, etc. 100 B.C.
News
paper
1502
Electro
Chappe
magnetic
Telegraph Telegraph
1794
1837
Radio
Tele- broadphone casting
1876
1918
TV
transmission
1927
Cellular
1973
Computation
trajectory (n total = 233, n trans&microp. = 193)
Computation trajectory: paradigms Ln of Milions of Computations per second per US$ [MCps/US$]
2.5E+01
Polynominal trendline trans&micropr.:
4
3
2
y = -0.00002x + 0.00210x - 0.07534x + 1.31005x - 2.37944
R2 = 0.98486
2.3E+01
2.0E+01
1.8E+01
Manual
Mechanical
1.5E+01
1.3E+01
Electromechanical
1.0E+01
Vaccum tubes
7.5E+00
Transistor
5.0E+00
Microprocessor
2.5E+00
0.0E+00
-2.5E+00
-5.0E+00
-7.5E+00
-1.0E+01
1830
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Source: Gonzalez & Hilbert, 2007. Hilbert, & Cairo, O. (Eds.). (2009). Quo Vaids, Tecnologia de la informacion y de las comunicaciones.
Mayol. http://www.eclac.org/SocInfo/
16
Transmission
trajectory (ntotal = 81, nbinary code = 53)
Telecom trajectory: paradigms
Polynominal trendline binary code:
4
3
2
y = 0.000005 - 0.000427 + 0.015002 + 0.005403x - 10.903543
2
R = 0.989108
5.0E+00
Direct code
0.0E+00
Ln of kilobit per US$ [kbps/US$]
Multi-symbolic code
Analogue broadcasting
radio and TV
Continuos code
-5.0E+00
Binary code
Telephone
-1.0E+01
-1.5E+01
Telex and teletype
Telegraph
-2.0E+01
Estimations for postal service mail
-2.5E+01
1830
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Source: Gonzalez & Hilbert, 2007. Hilbert, & Cairo, O. (Eds.). (2009). Quo Vaids, Tecnologia de la informacion y de las comunicaciones.
Mayol. http://www.eclac.org/SocInfo/
Storage
trajectory (ntotal = 446, n hard disk = 91, nRAM = 322)
Storage trajectory: paradigms
1.0E+01
Magnetic
8.0E+00
RAM
Floppy disk
Optical
Flash
Hard disk
Ln of megabytes per US$ [MB/US$]
6.0E+00
4.0E+00
2.0E+00
Polynominal trendline hard disk:
5
4
3
2
y = -0.000001x + 0.000150x - 0.006319x + 0.107800x - 0.470475x - 10.493383
2
R = 0 995236
0.0E+00
-2.0E+00
-4.0E+00
-6.0E+00
-8.0E+00
-1.0E+01
-1.2E+01
-1.4E+01
-1.6E+01
Polynominal trendline RAM:
5
4
3
2
y = -0.000006 + 0.000426 - 0.010885 + 0.101624 + 0.29536 - 13.156524
2
R = 0 993182
-1.8E+01
-2.0E+01
-2.2E+01
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Source: Gonzalez & Hilbert, 2007. Hilbert, & Cairo, O. (Eds.). (2009). Quo Vaids, Tecnologia de la informacion y de las comunicaciones.
Mayol. http://www.eclac.org/SocInfo/
What are some possible
future ICT?
17
“Everything that can be invented has been invented”
"Television won't be able to hold on to
any market it captures after the first six
months. People will soon get tired of
staring at a plywood box every night."
Charles Duell, Commissioner, U.S. patent office, 1899
Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946
What does the future hold?
"Two years from now, spam will be solved."
Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004
Remember Clarke’s 3rd law:
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”
"There is no reason anyone would
want a computer in their home"
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment
Corporation, 1977
http://www.techhive.com/article/155984/worst_tech_predictions.html
Web 1.0
Web 2.0
Web 3.0 Internet of Things (IoT)
Internet of Everything (IoE)
Semantic Web Source: http://pediain.com/seminar/smart-grid-seminar-report.html
Semantic Web: form information to meaning (semantics)
Source: based on B. Tjan, USC, Psychology
18
Semantic Web
W3C's
Web Ontology Language
(OWL)
“One World Language”
Resource
Description
Framework
(RDF) of the
W3C
From
wearables…
Source: Wikipedia Commons; http://www.fastcodesign.com/3036295/4-wearables-that-give-you-superpowers
http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-world-of-wearable-computers
Brain-Machine-Interfaces /
Brain-Computer-Interfaces
…to BMI / BCI
Wikipedia Commons; MMSPgroup. (2008). Brain-Computer Interface. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QxPR25DMAg ;
ITU Munich; University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine and UPMC. Rao and Stocco (2013) Direct Brain-to-Brain
Communication in Humans: A Pilot Study; http://www.fastcodesign.com/3036295/4-wearables-that-give-you-superpowers
19
Domestication of fire
150,000 years
=> Starting fire
2^ 0 =
1
2^ 1 =
2
2^ 2 =
4
2^ 3 =
8
2^ 4 = 16
2^ 5 = 32
1
2
4
8
16
First human flight of 120 feet (1903)=>
66 years
=> First human flight to the moon (1969)
Ray Kurzweil, http://www.kurzweilAI.net
http://www.futurebuff.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/singularity-graph.jpg ;
http://www.redbubble.com/people/chickensashimi/works/7459375-singularity?p=t-shirt
WARNING: This video contains graphic stunt illusions during which no frog got hurt!
https://youtu.be/APxGubAkOz0
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